The tortoise or the hare? Impacts of within-host dynamics on transmission success of arthropod-borne viruses

Trade-offs shaping transmission of sylvatic dengue and Zika viruses in monkey hosts

Mosquito-borne dengue (DENV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses originated in Old World sylvatic (forest) cycles involving monkeys and canopy-living Aedes mosquitoes. Both viruses spilled over into human transmission and were translocated to the Americas, opening a path for spillback into Neotropical sylvatic cycles. Studies of the trade-offs that shape within-host dynamics and transmission of these viruses are lacking, hampering efforts to predict spillover and spillback. We infected a native, Asian host species (cynomolgus macaque) and a novel, American host species (squirrel monkey) with sylvatic strains of DENV-2 or ZIKV via mosquito bite. We then monitored aspects of viral replication (viremia), innate and adaptive immune response (natural killer (NK) cells and neutralizing antibodies, respectively), and transmission to mosquitoes. In both hosts, ZIKV reached high titers that translated into high transmission to mosquitoes; in contrast DENV-2 replicated to low levels and, unexpectedly, transmission occurred only when serum viremia was below or near the limit of detection. Our data reveal evidence of an immunologically-mediated trade-off between duration and magnitude of virus replication, as higher peak ZIKV titers are associated with shorter durations of viremia, and higher NK cell levels are associated with lower peak ZIKV titers and lower anti-DENV-2 antibody levels. Furthermore, patterns of transmission of each virus from a Neotropical monkey suggest that ZIKV has greater potential than DENV-2 to establish a sylvatic transmission cycle in the Americas.

Quantifying Rift Valley fever virus transmission efficiency in a lamb-mosquito-lamb model

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a (re)emerging mosquito-borne pathogen impacting human and animal health. How RVFV spreads through a population depends on population-level and individual-level interactions between vector, host and pathogen. Here, we estimated the probability for RVFV to transmit to naive animals by experimentally exposing lambs to a bite of an infectious mosquito, and assessed if and how RVFV infection subsequently developed in the exposed animal. Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, previously infected via feeding on a viremic lamb, were used to expose naive lambs to the virus. Aedes aegypti colony mosquitoes were used as they are easy to maintain and readily feed in captivity. Other mosquito spp. could be examined with similar methodology. Lambs were exposed to either 1-3 (low exposure) or 7-9 (high exposure) infectious mosquitoes. All lambs in the high exposure group became viremic and showed characteristic signs of Rift Valley fever within 2-4 days post exposure. In contrast, 3 out of 12 lambs in the low exposure group developed viremia and disease, with similar peak-levels of viremia as the high exposure group but with some heterogeneity in the onset of viremia. These results suggest that the likelihood for successful infection of a ruminant host is affected by the number of infectious mosquitoes biting, but also highlights that a single bite of an infectious mosquito can result in disease. The per bite mosquito-to-host transmission efficiency was estimated at 28% (95% confidence interval: 15 - 47%). We subsequently combined this transmission efficiency with estimates for life traits of Aedes aegypti or related mosquitoes into a Ross-McDonald mathematical model to illustrate scenarios under which major RVFV outbreaks could occur in naïve populations (i.e., R0 >1). The model revealed that relatively high vector-to-host ratios as well as mosquitoes feeding preferably on competent hosts are required for R0 to exceed 1. Altogether, this study highlights the importance of experiments that mimic natural exposure to RVFV. The experiments facilitate a better understanding of the natural progression of disease and a direct way to obtain epidemiological parameters for mathematical models.

Mechanistic modelling of within-mosquito viral dynamics: Insights into infection and dissemination patterns

Vector or host competence can be defined as the ability of an individual to become infected and subsequently transmit a pathogen. Assays to measure competence play a key part in the assessment of the factors affecting mosquito-borne virus transmission and of potential pathogen-blocking control tools for these viruses. For mosquitoes, competence for arboviruses can be measured experimentally and results are usually analysed using standard statistical approaches. Here we develop a mechanistic approach to studying within-mosquito virus dynamics that occur during vector competence experiments. We begin by developing a deterministic model of virus replication in the mosquito midgut and subsequent escape and replication in the hemocoel. We then extend this to a stochastic model to capture the between-individual variation observed in vector competence experiments. We show that the dose-response of the probability of mosquito midgut infection and variation in the dissemination rate can be explained by stochastic processes generated from a small founding population of virions, caused by a relatively low rate of virion infection of susceptible cells. We also show that comparing treatments or species in competence experiments by fitting mechanistic models could provide further insight into potential differences. Generally, our work adds to the growing body of literature emphasizing the importance of intrinsic stochasticity in biological systems.

Immunologically mediated trade-offs shaping transmission of sylvatic dengue and Zika viruses in native and novel non-human primate hosts

Mosquito-borne dengue (DENV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses originated in Old World sylvatic cycles involving monkey hosts, spilled over into human transmission, and were translocated to the Americas, creating potential for spillback into neotropical sylvatic cycles. Studies of the trade-offs that shape within-host dynamics and transmission of these viruses are lacking, hampering efforts to predict spillover and spillback. We exposed native (cynomolgus macaque) or novel (squirrel monkey) hosts to mosquitoes infected with either sylvatic DENV or ZIKV and monitored viremia, natural killer cells, transmission to mosquitoes, cytokines, and neutralizing antibody titers. Unexpectedly, DENV transmission from both host species occurred only when serum viremia was undetectable or near the limit of detection. ZIKV replicated in squirrel monkeys to much higher titers than DENV and was transmitted more efficiently but stimulated lower neutralizing antibody titers. Increasing ZIKV viremia led to greater instantaneous transmission and shorter duration of infection, consistent with a replication-clearance trade-off.

Ecological drivers of sustained enzootic yellow fever virus transmission in Brazil, 2017-2021

Beginning December 2016, sylvatic yellow fever (YF) outbreaks spread into southeastern Brazil, and Minas Gerais state experienced two sylvatic YF waves (2017 and 2018). Following these massive YF waves, we screened 187 free-living non-human primate (NHPs) carcasses collected throughout the state between January 2019 and June 2021 for YF virus (YFV) using RTqPCR. One sample belonging to a Callithrix, collected in June 2020, was positive for YFV. The viral strain belonged to the same lineage associated with 2017-2018 outbreaks, showing the continued enzootic circulation of YFV in the state. Next, using data from 781 NHPs carcasses collected in 2017-18, we used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to identify the spatiotemporal and host-level drivers of YFV infection and intensity (an estimation of genomic viral load in the liver of infected NHP). Our GAMMs explained 65% and 68% of variation in virus infection and intensity, respectively, and uncovered strong temporal and spatial patterns for YFV infection and intensity. NHP infection was higher in the eastern part of Minas Gerais state, where 2017-2018 outbreaks affecting humans and NHPs were concentrated. The odds of YFV infection were significantly lower in NHPs from urban areas than from urban-rural or rural areas, while infection intensity was significantly lower in NHPs from urban areas or the urban-rural interface relative to rural areas. Both YFV infection and intensity were higher during the warm/rainy season compared to the cold/dry season. The higher YFV intensity in NHPs in warm/rainy periods could be a result of higher exposure to vectors and/or higher virus titers in vectors during this time resulting in the delivery of a higher virus dose and higher viral replication levels within NHPs. Further studies are needed to better test this hypothesis and further compare the dynamics of YFV enzootic cycles between different seasons.

Early Genomic Surveillance and Phylogeographic Analysis of Getah Virus, a Reemerging Arbovirus, in Livestock in China

Getah virus (GETV) mainly causes disease in livestock and may pose an epidemic risk due to its expanding host range and the potential of long-distance dispersal through animal trade. Here, we used metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) to identify GETV as the pathogen responsible for reemerging swine disease in China and subsequently estimated key epidemiological parameters using phylodynamic and spatially-explicit phylogeographic approaches. The GETV isolates were able to replicate in a variety of cell lines, including human cells, and showed high pathogenicity in a mouse model, suggesting the potential for more mammal hosts. We obtained 16 complete genomes and 79 E2 gene sequences from viral strains collected in China from 2016 to 2021 through large-scale surveillance among livestock, pets, and mosquitoes. Our phylogenetic analysis revealed that three major GETV lineages are responsible for the current epidemic in livestock in China. We identified three potential positively selected sites and mutations of interest in E2, which may impact the transmissibility and pathogenicity of the virus. Phylodynamic inference of the GETV demographic dynamics identified an association between livestock meat consumption and the evolution of viral genetic diversity. Finally, phylogeographic reconstruction of GETV dispersal indicated that the sampled lineages have preferentially circulated within areas associated with relatively higher mean annual temperature and pig population density. Our results highlight the importance of continuous surveillance of GETV among livestock in southern Chinese regions associated with relatively high temperatures. IMPORTANCE Although livestock is known to be the primary reservoir of Getah virus (GETV) in Asian countries, where identification is largely based on serology, the evolutionary history and spatial epidemiology of GETV in these regions remain largely unknown. Through our sequencing efforts, we provided robust support for lineage delineation of GETV and identified three major lineages that are responsible for the current epidemic in livestock in China. We further analyzed genomic and epidemiological data to reconstruct the recent demographic and dispersal history of GETV in domestic animals in China and to explore the impact of environmental factors on its genetic diversity and its diffusion. Notably, except for livestock meat consumption, other pig-related factors such as the evolution of live pig transport and pork production do not show a significant association with the evolution of viral genetic diversity, pointing out that further studies should investigate the potential contribution of other host species to the GETV outbreak. Our analysis of GETV demonstrates the need for wider animal species surveillance and provides a baseline for future studies of the molecular epidemiology and early warning of emerging arboviruses in China.

Heterogeneity of Rift Valley fever virus transmission potential across livestock hosts, quantified through a model-based analysis of host viral load and vector infection

Quantifying the variation of pathogens’ life history traits in multiple host systems is crucial to understand their transmission dynamics. It is particularly important for arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), which are prone to infecting several species of vertebrate hosts. Here, we focus on how host-pathogen interactions determine the ability of host species to transmit a virus to susceptible vectors upon a potentially infectious contact. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral, vector-borne, zoonotic disease, chosen as a case study. The relative contributions of livestock species to RVFV transmission has not been previously quantified. To estimate their potential to transmit the virus over the course of their infection, we 1) fitted a within-host model to viral RNA and infectious virus measures, obtained daily from infected lambs, calves, and young goats, 2) estimated the relationship between vertebrate host infectious titers and probability to infect mosquitoes, and 3) estimated the net infectiousness of each host species over the duration of their infectious periods, taking into account different survival outcomes for lambs. Our results indicate that the efficiency of viral replication, along with the lifespan of infectious particles, could be sources of heterogeneity between hosts. Given available data on RVFV competent vectors, we found that, for similar infectious titers, infection rates in the Aedes genus were on average higher than in the Culex genus. Consequently, for Aedes-mediated infections, we estimated the net infectiousness of lambs to be 2.93 (median) and 3.65 times higher than that of calves and goats, respectively. In lambs, we estimated the overall infectiousness to be 1.93 times higher in individuals which eventually died from the infection than in those recovering. Beyond infectiousness, the relative contributions of host species to transmission depend on local ecological factors, including relative abundances and vector host-feeding preferences. Quantifying these contributions will ultimately help design efficient, targeted, surveillance and vaccination strategies.

Viruses spread by mosquitoes present a major threat to animal and public health worldwide. When these pathogenic viruses can infect multiple species, controlling their spread becomes difficult. Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is such a virus. It spreads predominantly among ruminant livestock but can also spill over and cause severe disease in humans. Understanding which of these ruminant species are most important for the transmission of RVFV can help for effective control. One piece of this puzzle is to assess how effective infected animals are at transmitting RVFV to mosquitoes. To answer this question, we combine mathematical models with observations from experimental infections in cattle, sheep, and goats, and model changes in viremia over time within individuals. We then quantify the relationship between hosts’ viremia and the probability to infect mosquitoes. In combining these two analyses, we estimate the overall transmission potential of sheep, when in contact with mosquitoes, to be 3 to 5 times higher than that of goats and cattle. Further, sheep that experience a lethal infection have an even larger overall transmission potential. Once applied at the level of populations, with setting-specific herd composition and exposure to mosquitoes, these results will help unravel species’ role in RVF outbreaks.

Potential Mechanisms of Transmission of Tick-Borne Viruses at the Virus-Tick Interface

Ticks (Acari; Ixodidae) are the second most important vector for transmission of pathogens to humans, livestock, and wildlife. Ticks as vectors for viruses have been reported many times over the last 100 years. Tick-borne viruses (TBVs) belong to two orders (Bunyavirales and Mononegavirales) containing nine families (Bunyaviridae, Rhabdoviridae, Asfarviridae, Orthomyxovirida, Reoviridae, Flaviviridae, Phenuviridae, Nyamiviridae, and Nairoviridae). Among these TBVs, some are very pathogenic, causing huge mortality, and hence, deserve to be covered under the umbrella of one health. About 38 viral species are being transmitted by <10% of the tick species of the families Ixodidae and Argasidae. All TBVs are RNA viruses except for the African swine fever virus from the family Asfarviridae. Tick-borne viral diseases have also been classified as an emerging threat to public health and animals, especially in resource-poor communities of the developing world. Tick-host interaction plays an important role in the successful transmission of pathogens. The ticks' salivary glands are the main cellular machinery involved in the uptake, settlement, and multiplication of viruses, which are required for successful transmission into the final host. Furthermore, tick saliva also participates as an augmenting tool during the physiological process of transmission. Tick saliva is an important key element in the successful transmission of pathogens and contains different antimicrobial proteins, e.g., defensin, serine, proteases, and cement protein, which are key players in tick-virus interaction. While tick-virus interaction is a crucial factor in the propagation of tick-borne viral diseases, other factors (physiological, immunological, and gut flora) are also involved. Some immunological factors, e.g., toll-like receptors, scavenger receptors, Janus-kinase (JAK-STAT) pathway, and immunodeficiency (IMD) pathway are involved in tick-virus interaction by helping in virus assembly and acting to increase transmission. Ticks also harbor some endogenous viruses as internal microbial faunas, which also play a significant role in tick-virus interaction. Studies focusing on tick saliva and its role in pathogen transmission, tick feeding, and control of ticks using functional genomics all point toward solutions to this emerging threat. Information regarding tick-virus interaction is somewhat lacking; however, this information is necessary for a complete understanding of transmission TBVs and their persistence in nature. This review encompasses insight into the ecology and vectorial capacity of tick vectors, as well as our current understanding of the predisposing, enabling, precipitating, and reinforcing factors that influence TBV epidemics. The review explores the cellular, biochemical, and immunological tools which ensure and augment successful evading of the ticks' defense systems and transmission of the viruses to the final hosts at the virus-vector interface. The role of functional genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics in profiling tick-virus interaction is also discussed. This review is an initial attempt to comprehensively elaborate on the epidemiological determinants of TBVs with a focus on intra-vector physiological processes involved in the successful execution of the docking, uptake, settlement, replication, and transmission processes of arboviruses. This adds valuable data to the existing bank of knowledge for global stakeholders, policymakers, and the scientific community working to devise appropriate strategies to control ticks and TBVs.

The Putative Roles and Functions of Indel, Repetition and Duplication Events in Alphavirus Non-Structural Protein 3 Hypervariable Domain (nsP3 HVD) in Evolution, Viability and Re-Emergence

Alphavirus non-structural proteins 1–4 (nsP1, nsP2, nsP3, and nsP4) are known to be crucial for alphavirus RNA replication and translation. To date, nsP3 has been demonstrated to mediate many virus–host protein–protein interactions in several fundamental alphavirus mechanisms, particularly during the early stages of replication. However, the molecular pathways and proteins networks underlying these mechanisms remain poorly described. This is due to the low genetic sequence homology of the nsP3 protein among the alphavirus species, especially at its 3′ C-terminal domain, the hypervariable domain (HVD). Moreover, the nsP3 HVD is almost or completely intrinsically disordered and has a poor ability to form secondary structures. Evolution in the nsP3 HVD region allows the alphavirus to adapt to vertebrate and insect hosts. This review focuses on the putative roles and functions of indel, repetition, and duplication events that have occurred in the alphavirus nsP3 HVD, including characterization of the differences and their implications for specificity in the context of virus–host interactions in fundamental alphavirus mechanisms, which have thus directly facilitated the evolution, adaptation, viability, and re-emergence of these viruses.

Low Aedes aegypti Vector Competence for Zika Virus from Viremic Rhesus Macaques

Despite worldwide efforts to understand the transmission dynamics of Zika virus (ZIKV), scanty evaluation has been made on the vector competence of Aedes aegypti fed directly on viremic human and non-human primates (NHPs). We blood-fed Ae. aegypti from two districts in Rio de Janeiro on six ZIKV infected pregnant rhesus macaques at several time points, half of which were treated with Sofosbuvir (SOF). Mosquitoes were analyzed for vector competence after 3, 7 and 14 days of incubation. Although viremia extended up to eight days post monkey inoculation, only mosquitoes fed on the day of the peak of viremia, recorded on day two, became infected. The influence of SOF treatment could not be assessed because the drug was administered just after mosquito feeding on day two. The global infection, dissemination and transmission rates were quite low (4.09%, 1.91% and 0.54%, respectively); no mosquito was infected when viremia was below 1.26 × 10⁵ RNA copies/mL. In conclusion, Ae. aegypti vector competence for ZIKV from macaques is low, likely to be due to low viral load and the short duration of ZIKV viremia in primates suitable for infecting susceptible mosquitoes. If ZIKV infection in human and macaques behaves similarly, transmission of the Zika virus in nature is most strongly affected by vector density.

The Vector - Host - Pathogen Interface: The Next Frontier in the Battle Against Mosquito-Borne Viral Diseases?

An unprecedented spread of mosquito-borne viruses and increasing populations of mosquito vectors has led to an increase in the frequency of mosquito-borne virus disease outbreaks. Recent outbreaks of Zika virus (ZIKV) and yellow fever virus (YFV), among others have led to a concerted effort to understand the biology of mosquito-borne viruses and their interaction with their vector mosquito and vertebrate hosts. Recent studies have aimed to understand the vector-host-pathogen interface and how it influences infection, tropism and disease severity in the vertebrate host. The initial replication of the pathogen at the skin bite site is crucial in determining the progression of the infection in the vertebrate host. Delineating the role of the commensal microbes in the mosquito saliva as well as how they interact with the vertebrate host keratinocytes will improve our understanding of disease immunopathology and may lead to new therapeutics.

Ecological processes underlying the emergence of novel enzootic cycles: Arboviruses in the neotropics as a case study

Pathogens originating from wildlife (zoonoses) pose a significant public health burden, comprising the majority of emerging infectious diseases. Efforts to control and prevent zoonotic disease have traditionally focused on animal-to-human transmission, or "spillover." However, in the modern era, increasing international mobility and commerce facilitate the spread of infected humans, nonhuman animals (hereafter animals), and their products worldwide, thereby increasing the risk that zoonoses will be introduced to new geographic areas. Imported zoonoses can potentially "spill back" to infect local wildlife-a danger magnified by urbanization and other anthropogenic pressures that increase contacts between human and wildlife populations. In this way, humans can function as vectors, dispersing zoonoses from their ancestral enzootic systems to establish reservoirs elsewhere in novel animal host populations. Once established, these enzootic cycles are largely unassailable by standard control measures and have the potential to feed human epidemics. Understanding when and why translocated zoonoses establish novel enzootic cycles requires disentangling ecologically complex and stochastic interactions between the zoonosis, the human population, and the natural ecosystem. In this Review, we address this challenge by delineating potential ecological mechanisms affecting each stage of enzootic establishment-wildlife exposure, enzootic infection, and persistence-applying existing ecological concepts from epidemiology, invasion biology, and population ecology. We ground our discussion in the neotropics, where four arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) of zoonotic origin-yellow fever, dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses-have separately been introduced into the human population. This paper is a step towards developing a framework for predicting and preventing novel enzootic cycles in the face of zoonotic translocations.

Age-structured vectorial capacity reveals timing, not magnitude of within-mosquito dynamics is critical for arbovirus fitness assessment

Background

Transmission dynamics of arboviruses like Zika virus are often evaluated by vector competence (the proportion of infectious vectors given exposure) and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP, the time it takes for a vector to become infectious), but vector age is another critical driver of transmission dynamics. Vectorial capacity (VC) is a measure of transmission potential of a vector-pathogen system, but how these three components, EIP, vector competence and vector age, affect VC in concert still needs study.

Methods

The interaction of vector competence, EIP, and mosquito age at the time of infection acquisition (Age_acquisition) was experimentally measured in an Aedes aegypti-ZIKV model system, as well as the age-dependence of probability of survival and the willingness to bite. An age-structured vectorial capacity framework (VC_age) was then developed using both EIP_Min and EIP_Max, defined as the time to first observed minimum proportion of transmitting mosquitoes and the time to observed maximum proportion of transmitting mosquitoes.

Results

The within-mosquito dynamics of vector competence/EIP were not significant among treatments where mosquitoes were exposed at different ages. However, VC_age revealed: (i) age-dependence in vector-virus interactions is important for transmission success; (ii) lower vector competence but at shorter EIPs was sufficient for transmission perpetuation; and (iii) R₀ may be overestimated by using non-age-structured VC.

Conclusions

The results indicate that ultimately the temporal component of the virus-vector dynamics is most critical, especially when exposure occurred at advanced mosquito age. While our study is limited to a single virus-vector system, and a multitude of other factors affect both vector competence and mosquito mortality, our methods can be extrapolated to these other scenarios. Results indicate that how ‘highly’ or ‘negligibly’ competent vectors are categorized may need adjustment.

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in tortoises and Hyalomma aegyptium ticks in East Thrace, Turkey: potential of a cryptic transmission cycle

Background

Recent reports have demonstrated the presence of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) genomic material in Hyalomma aegyptium ticks feeding primarily on tortoises belonging to the genus Testudo. This raises the question if these ticks and their hosts play a role in the natural transmission dynamics of CCHFV. However, the studies are limited, and assessing the relevance of H. aegyptium in perpetuating the virus in nature, and a potential spillover to humans remains unknown. This study aimed to detect CCHFV in H. aegyptium ticks and their tortoise hosts in the East Thrace region of Turkey, where H. aegyptium is the most common human-biting tick and where a high density of tortoises of the genus Testudo can be found.

Methods

During the study period, 21 blood samples from different tortoises (2 T. hermanni and 19 T. graeca), 106 tick pools (containing 448 males, 152 females, 93 nymphs and 60 larvae) collected from 65 tortoises (5 T. hermanni and 60 T. graeca), 38 adult unfed questing ticks (25 males and 13 females, screened individually) and 14 pools (containing 8 nymphs and 266 larvae) of immature unfed questing ticks collected from the ground were screened for CCHFV genome by nested PCR and partial genomes sequenced.

Results

As a result of the screening of these 179 samples, 17 (9.5%) were detected as positive as follows: 2 of 21 blood samples (9.52%), 13 (containing 18 nymphs in 3 pools, and 52 males and 8 females in 10 pools) of 106 tick pools from tortoises (12.26%), and 2 of 38 adult questing ticks (5.26%). No positive result was determined in 14 pools of immature questing ticks.

Conclusions

Previous studies have shown that reptiles can participate in the transmission of arthropod-borne viruses, but they may contribute to different aspects of the disease ecology and evolution of tick-borne viral pathogens. Our results indicate the presence of CCHFV in questing and feeding H. aegyptium ticks as well as tortoise hosts. This may indicate that CCHFV circulates in a cryptic transmission cycle in addition to the primary transmission cycle that could play a role in the natural dynamic of the virus and the transmission to humans.

Localized Hypermutation is the Major Driver of Meningococcal Genetic Variability during Persistent Asymptomatic Carriage

Host persistence of bacteria is facilitated by mutational and recombinatorial processes that counteract loss of genetic variation during transmission and selection from evolving host responses. Genetic variation was investigated during persistent asymptomatic carriage of Neisseria meningitidis Interrogation of whole-genome sequences for paired isolates from 25 carriers showed that de novo mutations were infrequent, while horizontal gene transfer occurred in 16% of carriers. Examination of multiple isolates per time point enabled separation of sporadic and transient allelic variation from directional variation. A comprehensive comparative analysis of directional allelic variation with hypermutation of simple sequence repeats and hyperrecombination of class 1 type IV pilus genes detected an average of seven events per carrier and 2:1 bias for changes due to localized hypermutation. Directional genetic variation was focused on the outer membrane with 69% of events occurring in genes encoding enzymatic modifiers of surface structures or outer membrane proteins. Multiple carriers exhibited directional and opposed switching of allelic variants of the surface-located Opa proteins that enables continuous expression of these adhesins alongside antigenic variation. A trend for switching from PilC1 to PilC2 expression was detected, indicating selection for specific alterations in the activities of the type IV pilus, whereas phase variation of restriction modification (RM) systems, as well as associated phasevarions, was infrequent. We conclude that asymptomatic meningococcal carriage on mucosal surfaces is facilitated by frequent localized hypermutation and horizontal gene transfer affecting genes encoding surface modifiers such that optimization of adhesive functions occurs alongside escape of immune responses by antigenic variation.IMPORTANCE Many bacterial pathogens coexist with host organisms, rarely causing disease while adapting to host responses. Neisseria meningitidis, a major cause of meningitis and septicemia, is a frequent persistent colonizer of asymptomatic teenagers/young adults. To assess how genetic variation contributes to host persistence, whole-genome sequencing and hypermutable sequence analyses were performed on multiple isolates obtained from students naturally colonized with meningococci. High frequencies of gene transfer were observed, occurring in 16% of carriers and affecting 51% of all nonhypermutable variable genes. Comparative analyses showed that hypermutable sequences were the major mechanism of variation, causing 2-fold more changes in gene function than other mechanisms. Genetic variation was focused on genes affecting the outer membrane, with directional changes in proteins responsible for bacterial adhesion to host surfaces. This comprehensive examination of genetic plasticity in individual hosts provides a significant new platform for rationale design of approaches to prevent the spread of this pathogen.

Mosquito-Independent Transmission of West Nile virus in Farmed Saltwater Crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus)

West Nile virus, Kunjin strain (WNV_KUN) is endemic in Northern Australia, but rarely causes clinical disease in humans and horses. Recently, WNV_KUN genomic material was detected in cutaneous lesions of farmed saltwater crocodiles (Crocodylus porosus), but live virus could not be isolated, begging the question of the pathogenesis of these lesions. Crocodile hatchlings were experimentally infected with either 10⁵ (n = 10) or 10⁴ (n = 11) TCID₅₀-doses of WNV_KUN and each group co-housed with six uninfected hatchlings in a mosquito-free facility. Seven hatchlings were mock-infected and housed separately. Each crocodile was rotationally examined and blood-sampled every third day over a 3-week period. Eleven animals, including three crocodiles developing typical skin lesions, were culled and sampled 21 days post-infection (dpi). The remaining hatchlings were blood-sampled fortnightly until experimental endpoint 87 dpi. All hatchlings remained free of overt clinical disease, apart from skin lesions, throughout the experiment. Viremia was detected by qRT-PCR in infected animals during 2–17 dpi and in-contact animals 11–21 dpi, indicating horizontal mosquito-independent transmission. Detection of viral genome in tank-water as well as oral and cloacal swabs, collected on multiple days, suggests that shedding into pen-water and subsequent mucosal infection is the most likely route. All inoculated animals and some in-contact animals developed virus-neutralizing antibodies detectable from 17 dpi. Virus-neutralizing antibody titers continued to increase in exposed animals until the experimental endpoint, suggestive of persisting viral antigen. However, no viral antigen was detected by immunohistochemistry in any tissue sample, including from skin and intestine. While this study confirmed that infection of saltwater crocodiles with WNV_KUN was associated with the formation of skin lesions, we were unable to elucidate the pathogenesis of these lesions or the nidus of viral persistence. Our results nevertheless suggest that prevention of WNV_KUN infection and induction of skin lesions in farmed crocodiles may require management of both mosquito-borne and water-borne viral transmission in addition to vaccination strategies.

Genome-Scale Phylogeny and Evolutionary Analysis of Ross River Virus Reveals Periodic Sweeps of Lineage Dominance in Western Australia, 1977-2014

Ross River virus (RRV) causes the most common mosquito-borne infection in Australia and causes a significant burden of suffering to infected individuals as well as being a large burden to the Australian economy. The genetic diversity of RRV and its evolutionary history have so far only been studied using partial E2 gene analysis with a limited number of isolates. Robust whole-genome analysis has not yet been conducted. This study generated 94 novel near-whole-genome sequences to investigate the evolutionary history of RRV to better understand its genetic diversity through comprehensive whole-genome phylogeny. A better understanding of RRV genetic diversity will enable better diagnostics, surveillance, and potential future vaccine design.

Ross River virus (RRV), an alphavirus of the Togaviridae family, is the most medically significant mosquito-borne virus of Australia. Past RRV phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses have been based on partial genome analyses only. Three geographically distinct RRV lineages, the Eastern, the Western, and the supposedly extinct North-Eastern lineage, were classified previously. We sought to expand on past phylogenies through robust genome-scale phylogeny to better understand RRV genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics. We analyzed 106 RRV complete coding sequences, which included 13 genomes available on NCBI and 94 novel sequences derived for this study, sampled throughout Western Australia (1977–2014) and during the substantial Pacific Islands RRV epidemic (1979–1980). Our final data set comprised isolates sampled over 59 years (1959–2018) from a range of locations. Four distinct genotypes were defined, with the newly described genotype 4 (G4) found to be the contemporary lineage circulating in Western Australia. The prior geographical classification of RRV lineages was not supported by our findings, with evidence of geographical and temporal cocirculation of distinct genetic groups. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis revealed that RRV lineages diverged from a common ancestor approximately 94 years ago, with distinct lineages emerging roughly every 10 years over the past 50 years in periodic bursts of genetic diversity. Our study has enabled a more robust analysis of RRV evolutionary history and resolved greater genetic diversity that had been previously defined by partial E2 gene analysis.

IMPORTANCE Ross River virus (RRV) causes the most common mosquito-borne infection in Australia and causes a significant burden of suffering to infected individuals as well as being a large burden to the Australian economy. The genetic diversity of RRV and its evolutionary history have so far only been studied using partial E2 gene analysis with a limited number of isolates. Robust whole-genome analysis has not yet been conducted. This study generated 94 novel near-whole-genome sequences to investigate the evolutionary history of RRV to better understand its genetic diversity through comprehensive whole-genome phylogeny. A better understanding of RRV genetic diversity will enable better diagnostics, surveillance, and potential future vaccine design.

Support for the Transmission-Clearance Trade-Off Hypothesis from a Study of Zika Virus Delivered by Mosquito Bite to Mice

Evolutionary theory indicates that virus virulence is shaped by a trade-off between instantaneous rate of transmission and duration of infection. For most viruses, infection is curtailed by immune clearance, but there are few empirical tests of the transmission–clearance trade-off hypothesis. We exposed A129 mice to bites from groups of 1, 2–4, or 6–9 Aedes albopictus mosquitoes infected with Zika virus (ZIKV). We predicted that a higher number of infectious mosquito bites would deliver a higher total dose of the virus, and that increasing dose would result in earlier onset, higher magnitude, and shorter duration of viremia, as well as a more robust neutralizing antibody response. We found that increases in the number of mosquito bites delivered resulted in significantly different virus replication dynamics with higher, earlier peak titers. All mice experienced a transient weight loss following infection, but the nadir in weight loss was delayed in the mice that received the highest number of bites. Viremia persisted past the period of measurement in this study, so we did not capture its duration. However, the association at the level of the individual mouse between the estimated virus dose delivered and neutralizing antibody titer was remarkably strong, supporting the transmission–clearance trade-off hypothesis.

Correlation of the basic reproduction number (R0) and eco-environmental variables in Colombian municipalities with chikungunya outbreaks during 2014-2016

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) emerged in Colombia in 2014 into a population presumed fully susceptible. This resulted in a quick and intense spread across Colombia, resulting in an epidemic that affected an estimated 450,000 people. The reported Colombian cases accounted for over 49% of all the cases reported to the PAHO. Eco-environmental factors are known to be associated with the spread of arboviruses such as CHIKV, and likely contribute to the differences in transmission profiles that were observed across several municipalities. To determine the association of eco-environmental factors and CHIKV, the basic reproduction number (R₀) in 85 municipalities, which accounted for 65.6% of reported CHIKV cases in Colombia, was estimated. Estimates of R₀ ranged from 1 to 9, where over 76% of municipalities had R₀ values between 1 and 2. When we looked at the distribution of R₀, the cumulative proportions were 20% with R₀>2, 14% with R₀>3, and 9% with R₀>4. Next, we determined that there were different patterns of correlation between environmental and/or ecological variables and R₀ when we considered different R₀ lower-thresholds. Broadly, we found that temperature-related variables are significantly and positively correlated to R₀ regardless of the lower threshold, while other variables like duration of outbreak and size of the urban area are inversely related to R₀. Specifically, we conclude that high values of temperature-related variables where R₀ > 1 will result in a fast growth of cases in a shorter time period (with faster cessation of outbreak transmission) but will result overall in a fewer total cases compared to outbreak areas (R₀ > 1, but classified as lower). Thus, in the absence of vector control, a less explosive outbreak may be more advantageous for the virus in terms of transmission.

Chikungunya virus emerged in Colombia in 2014 into a presumed fully susceptible population and rapidly spread in the country. Numerous municipalities were differently affected by this virus across the country. The main purpose of this work was understanding why those differences were produced and, in turn, what are the variables addressing such differences. For this purpose, we estimated for 85 municipalities the basic reproduction number (R₀), a crucial parameter to understand epidemics that is expressed as the number of secondary cases produced by a primary case. Such parameter was correlated with numerous variables resulting evident a crucial role of temperature in the increase of R₀. Interestingly, other variables like size of the urban area and cases showed to be negatively correlated with R₀. Results shows that high temperatures produce high R₀, but those municipalities that showed high R₀ showed an explosive epidemic with faster increase of cases that ceased equally fast, so the duration of epidemic is short producing small amount of cases. In this way, more cases are expected with municipalities with lower values of R₀, which is suitably explained by the tortoise-hare model, where the less explosive outbreak results to be more advantageous for the virus.

Vector Competence: What Has Zika Virus Taught Us?

The unprecedented outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in the Americas from 2015 to 2017 prompted the publication of a large body of vector competence data in a relatively short period of time. Although differences in vector competence as a result of disparities in mosquito populations and viral strains are to be expected, the limited competence of many populations of the urban mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, from the Americas (when its susceptibility is viewed relative to other circulating/reemerging mosquito-borne viruses such as dengue (DENV), yellow fever (YFV), and chikungunya viruses (CHIKV)) has proven a paradox for the field. This has been further complicated by the lack of standardization in the methodologies utilized in laboratory vector competence experiments, precluding meta-analyses of this large data set. As the calls for the standardization of such studies continue to grow in number, it is critical to examine the elements of vector competence experimental design. Herein, we review the various techniques and considerations intrinsic to vector competence studies, with respect to contemporary findings for ZIKV, as well as historical findings for other arboviruses, and discuss potential avenues of standardization going forward.

Linked within-host and between-host models and data for infectious diseases: a systematic review

The observed dynamics of infectious diseases are driven by processes across multiple scales. Here we focus on two: within-host, that is, how an infection progresses inside a single individual (for instance viral and immune dynamics), and between-host, that is, how the infection is transmitted between multiple individuals of a host population. The dynamics of each of these may be influenced by the other, particularly across evolutionary time. Thus understanding each of these scales, and the links between them, is necessary for a holistic understanding of the spread of infectious diseases. One approach to combining these scales is through mathematical modeling. We conducted a systematic review of the published literature on multi-scale mathematical models of disease transmission (as defined by combining within-host and between-host scales) to determine the extent to which mathematical models are being used to understand across-scale transmission, and the extent to which these models are being confronted with data. Following the PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews, we identified 24 of 197 qualifying papers across 30 years that include both linked models at the within and between host scales and that used data to parameterize/calibrate models. We find that the approach that incorporates both modeling with data is under-utilized, if increasing. This highlights the need for better communication and collaboration between modelers and empiricists to build well-calibrated models that both improve understanding and may be used for prediction.

Culicoides Biting Midges-Underestimated Vectors for Arboviruses of Public Health and Veterinary Importance

Culicoides biting midges, small hematophagous dipterans, are the demonstrated or putative vectors of multiple arboviruses of veterinary and public health importance. Despite its relevance in disease spread, the ceratopogonid genus Culicoides is still a largely neglected group of species, predominantly because the major human-affecting arboviruses are considered to be transmitted by mosquitoes. However, when a pathogen is detected in a certain vector species, a thorough search for further vectors often remains undone and, therefore, the relevant vector species may remain unknown. Furthermore, for many hematophagous arthropods, true vector competence is often merely suspected and not experimentally proven. Therefore, we aim to illuminate the general impact of Culicoides biting midges and to summarize the knowledge about biting midge-borne disease agents using the order Bunyavirales, the largest and most diverse group of RNA viruses, as an example. When considering only viruses evidentially transmitted by Culicoides midges, the Simbu serogroup (genus Orthobunyavirus) is presumably the most important group within the virus order. Its members are of great veterinary importance, as a variety of simbuviruses, e.g., the species Akabane orthobunyavirus or Schmallenberg orthobunyavirus, induces severe congenital infections in pregnant animals. The major zoonotic representative of this serogroup occurs in South and Central America and causes the so-called Oropouche fever, an acute febrile illness in humans.

ZIKV Demonstrates Minimal Pathologic Effects and Mosquito Infectivity in Viremic Cynomolgus Macaques

To evaluate the effects of ZIKV infection on non-human primates (NHPs), as well as to investigate whether these NHPs develop sufficient viremia to infect the major urban vector mosquito, Aedes aegypti, four cynomolgus macaques (Macaca fascicularis) were subcutaneously infected with 5.0 log₁₀ focus-forming units (FFU) of DNA clone-derived ZIKV strain FSS13025 (Asian lineage, Cambodia, 2010). Following infection, the animals were sampled (blood, urine, tears, and saliva), underwent daily health monitoring, and were exposed to Ae. aegypti at specified time points. All four animals developed viremia, which peaked 3⁻4 days post-infection at a maximum value of 6.9 log₁₀ genome copies/mL. No virus was detected in urine, tears, or saliva. Infection by ZIKV caused minimal overt disease: serum biochemistry and CBC values largely fell within the normal ranges, and cytokine elevations were minimal. Strikingly, the minimally colonized population of Ae. aegypti exposed to viremic animals demonstrated a maximum infection rate of 26% during peak viremia, with two of the four macaques failing to infect a single mosquito at any time point. These data indicate that cynomolgus macaques may be an effective model for ZIKV infection of humans and highlights the relative refractoriness of Ae. aegypti for ZIKV infection at the levels of viremia observed.

Colonized Sabethes cyaneus, a Sylvatic New World Mosquito Species, Shows a Low Vector Competence for Zika Virus Relative to Aedes aegypti

The introduction of Zika virus (ZIKV) to the Americas raised concern that the virus would spill back from human transmission, perpetuated by Aedes aegypti, into a sylvatic cycle maintained in wildlife and forest-living mosquitoes. In the Americas, Sabethes species are vectors of sylvatic yellow fever virus (YFV) and are therefore candidate vectors of a sylvatic ZIKV cycle. To test the potential of Sabethes cyaneus to transmit ZIKV, Sa. cyaneus and Ae. aegypti were fed on A129 mice one or two days post-infection (dpi) with a ZIKV isolate from Mexico. Sa. cyaneus were sampled at 3, 4, 5, 7, 14, and 21 days post-feeding (dpf) and Ae. aegypti were sampled at 14 and 21 dpf. ZIKV was quantified in mosquito bodies, legs, and saliva to measure infection, dissemination, and potential transmission, respectively. Of 69 Sa. cyaneus that fed, ZIKV was detected in only one, in all body compartments, at 21 dpf. In contrast, at 14 dpf 100% of 20 Ae. aegypti that fed on mice at 2 dpi were infected and 70% had virus in saliva. These data demonstrate that Sa. cyaneus is a competent vector for ZIKV, albeit much less competent than Ae. aegypti.

Transmission-clearance trade-offs indicate that dengue virulence evolution depends on epidemiological context

An extensive body of theory addresses the topic of pathogen virulence evolution, yet few studies have empirically demonstrated the presence of fitness trade-offs that would select for intermediate virulence. Here we show the presence of transmission-clearance trade-offs in dengue virus using viremia measurements. By fitting a within-host model to these data, we further find that the interaction between dengue and the host immune response can account for the observed trade-offs. Finally, we consider dengue virulence evolution when selection acts on the virus’s production rate. By combining within-host model simulations with empirical findings on how host viral load affects human-to-mosquito transmission success, we show that the virus’s transmission potential is maximized at production rates associated with intermediate virulence and that the optimal production rate critically depends on dengue’s epidemiological context. These results indicate that long-term changes in dengue’s global distribution impact the invasion and spread of virulent dengue virus genotypes.

Theory predicts that pathogens will evolve towards intermediate virulence, yet the necessary trade-offs invoked by this theory have rarely been demonstrated empirically. Here, the authors show that dengue virus dynamics exhibit a trade-off between transmission and clearance rates.

Role of monkeys in the sylvatic cycle of chikungunya virus in Senegal

Arboviruses spillover into humans either as a one-step jump from a reservoir host species into humans or as a two-step jump from the reservoir to an amplification host species and thence to humans. Little is known about arbovirus transmission dynamics in reservoir and amplification hosts. Here we elucidate the role of monkeys in the sylvatic, enzootic cycle of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in the region around Kédougou, Senegal. Over 3 years, 737 monkeys were captured, aged using anthropometry and dentition, and tested for exposure to CHIKV by detection of neutralizing antibodies. Infant monkeys were positive for CHIKV even when the virus was not detected in a concurrent survey of mosquitoes and when population immunity was too high for monkeys alone to support continuous transmission. We conclude that monkeys in this region serve as amplification hosts of CHIKV. Additional efforts are needed to identify other hosts capable of supporting continuous circulation.

Antibody-dependent enhancement of severe dengue disease in humans

For dengue viruses 1 to 4 (DENV1-4), a specific range of antibody titer has been shown to enhance viral replication in vitro and severe disease in animal models. Although suspected, such antibody-dependent enhancement of severe disease has not been shown to occur in humans. Using multiple statistical approaches to study a long-term pediatric cohort in Nicaragua, we show that risk of severe dengue disease is highest within a narrow range of preexisting anti-DENV antibody titers. By contrast, we observe protection from all symptomatic dengue disease at high antibody titers. Thus, immune correlates of severe dengue must be evaluated separately from correlates of protection against symptomatic disease. These results have implications for studies of dengue pathogenesis and for vaccine development, because enhancement, not just lack of protection, is of concern.

Differential Vector Competency of Aedes albopictus Populations from the Americas for Zika Virus

To evaluate the potential role of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) as a vector of Zika virus (ZIKV), colonized mosquitoes of low generation number (≤ F5) from Brazil, Houston, and the Rio Grande Valley of Texas engorged on viremic mice infected with ZIKV strains originating from Senegal, Cambodia, Mexico, Brazil, or Puerto Rico. Vector competence was established by monitoring infection, dissemination, and transmission potential after 3, 7, and 14 days of extrinsic incubation. Positive saliva samples were assayed for infectious titer. Although all three mosquito populations were susceptible to all ZIKV strains, rates of infection, dissemination, and transmission differed among mosquito and virus strains. Aedes albopictus from Salvador, Brazil, were the least efficient vectors, demonstrating susceptibility to infection to two American strains of ZIKV but failing to shed virus in saliva. Mosquitoes from the Rio Grande Valley were the most efficient vectors and were capable of shedding all three tested ZIKV strains into saliva after 14 days of extrinsic incubation. In particular, ZIKV strain DakAR 41525 (Senegal 1954) was significantly more efficient at dissemination and saliva deposition than the others tested in Rio Grande mosquitoes. Overall, our data indicate that, while Ae. albopictus is capable of transmitting ZIKV, its competence is potentially dependent on geographic origin of both the mosquito population and the viral strain.

Variation in Aedes aegypti Mosquito Competence for Zika Virus Transmission

To test whether Zika virus has adapted for more efficient transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, leading to recent urban outbreaks, we fed mosquitoes from Brazil, the Dominican Republic, and the United States artificial blood meals containing 1 of 3 Zika virus strains (Senegal, Cambodia, Mexico) and monitored infection, dissemination, and virus in saliva. Contrary to our hypothesis, Cambodia and Mexica strains were less infectious than the Senegal strain. Only mosquitoes from the Dominican Republic transmitted the Cambodia and Mexica strains. However, blood meals from viremic mice were more infectious than artificial blood meals of comparable doses; the Cambodia strain was not transmitted by mosquitoes from Brazil after artificial blood meals, whereas 61% transmission occurred after a murine blood meal (saliva titers up to 4 log₁₀ infectious units/collection). Although regional origins of vector populations and virus strain influence transmission efficiency, Ae. aegypti mosquitoes appear to be competent vectors of Zika virus in several regions of the Americas.

Potential for Zika Virus to Establish a Sylvatic Transmission Cycle in the Americas

Zika virus (ZIKV) originated and continues to circulate in a sylvatic transmission cycle between non-human primate hosts and arboreal mosquitoes in tropical Africa. Recently ZIKV invaded the Americas, where it poses a threat to human health, especially to pregnant women and their infants. Here we examine the risk that ZIKV will establish a sylvatic cycle in the Americas, focusing on Brazil. We review the natural history of sylvatic ZIKV and present a mathematical dynamic transmission model to assess the probability of establishment of a sylvatic ZIKV transmission cycle in non-human primates and/or other mammals and arboreal mosquito vectors in Brazil. Brazil is home to multiple species of primates and mosquitoes potentially capable of ZIKV transmission, though direct assessment of host competence (ability to mount viremia sufficient to infect a feeding mosquito) and vector competence (ability to become infected with ZIKV and disseminate and transmit upon subsequent feedings) of New World species is lacking. Modeling reveals a high probability of establishment of sylvatic ZIKV across a large range of biologically plausible parameters. Probability of establishment is dependent on host and vector population sizes, host birthrates, and ZIKV force of infection. Research on the host competence of New World monkeys or other small mammals to ZIKV, on vector competence of New World Aedes, Sabethes, and Haemagogus mosquitoes for ZIKV, and on the geographic range of potential New World hosts and vectors is urgently needed. A sylvatic cycle of ZIKV would make future elimination efforts in the Americas practically impossible, and paints a dire picture for the epidemiology of ZIKV and our ability to end the ongoing outbreak of congenital Zika syndrome.

Rise and fall of vector infectivity during sequential strain displacements by mosquito-borne dengue virus

Each of the four serotypes of mosquito-borne dengue virus (DENV-1-4) comprises multiple, genetically distinct strains. Competitive displacement between strains within a serotype is a common feature of DENV epidemiology and can trigger outbreaks of dengue disease. We investigated the mechanisms underlying two sequential displacements by DENV-3 strains in Sri Lanka that each coincided with abrupt increases in dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence. First, the post-DHF strain displaced the pre-DHF strain in the 1980s. We have previously shown that post-DHF is more infectious than pre-DHF for the major DENV vector, Aedes aegypti. Then, the ultra-DHF strain evolved in situ from post-DHF and displaced its ancestor in the 2000s. We predicted that ultra-DHF would be more infectious for Ae. aegypti than post-DHF but found that ultra-DHF infected a significantly lower percentage of mosquitoes than post-DHF. We therefore hypothesized that ultra-DHF had effected displacement by disseminating in Ae. aegypti more rapidly than post-DHF, but this was not borne out by a time course of mosquito infection. To elucidate the mechanisms that shape these virus-vector interactions, we tested the impact of RNA interference (RNAi), the principal mosquito defence against DENV, on replication of each of the three DENV strains. Replication of all strains was similar in mosquito cells with dysfunctional RNAi, but in cells with functional RNAi, replication of pre-DHF was significantly suppressed relative to the other two strains. Thus, differences in susceptibility to RNAi may account for the differences in mosquito infectivity between pre-DHF and post-DHF, but other mechanisms underlie the difference between post-DHF and ultra-DHF.