Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe

COVID-19 isolation and quarantine orders in Berlin-Reinickendorf (Germany): How many, how long and to whom?

Isolating COVID-19 cases and quarantining their close contacts can prevent COVID-19 transmissions but also inflict harm. We analysed isolation and quarantine orders by the local public health agency in Berlin-Reinickendorf (Germany) and their dependence on the recommendations by the Robert Koch Institute, the national public health institute. Between 3 March 2020 and 18 December 2021 the local public health agency ordered 24 603 isolations (9.2 per 100 inhabitants) and 45 014 quarantines (17 per 100 inhabitants) in a population of 266 123. The mean contacts per case was 1.9. More days of quarantine per 100 inhabitants were ordered for children than for adults: 4.1 for children aged 0-6, 5.2 for children aged 7-17, 0.9 for adults aged 18-64 and 0.3 for senior citizens aged 65-110. The mean duration for isolation orders was 10.2 and for quarantine orders 8.2 days. We calculated a delay of 4 days between contact and quarantine order. 3484 contact persons were in quarantine when they developed an infection. This represents 8% of all individuals in quarantine and 14% of those in isolation. Our study quantifies isolation and quarantine orders, shows that children had been ordered to quarantine more than adults and that there were fewer school days lost to isolation or quarantine as compared to school closures. Our results indicate that the recommendations of the Robert Koch Institute had an influence on isolation and quarantine duration as well as contact identification and that the local public health agency was not able to provide rigorous contact tracing, as the mean number of contacts was lower than the mean number of contacts per person known from literature. Additionally, a considerable portion of the population underwent isolation or quarantine, with a notable number of cases emerging during the quarantine period.

Impact of school closures and reopening on COVID-19 caseload in 6 cities of Pakistan: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Schools were closed all over Pakistan on November 26, 2020 to reduce community transmission of COVID-19 and reopened between January 18 and February 1, 2021. However, these closures were associated with significant economic and social costs, prompting a review of effectiveness of school closures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 infections in a developing country like Pakistan. A single-group interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) was used to measure the impact of school closures, as well as reopening schools, on daily new COVID-19 cases in 6 major cities across Pakistan: Lahore, Karachi, Islamabad, Quetta, Peshawar, and Muzaffarabad. However, any benefits were contingent on continued closure of schools, as cases bounced back once schools reopened. School closures are associated with a clear and statistically significant reduction in COVID-19 cases by 0.07 to 0.63 cases per 100,000 population, while reopening schools is associated with a statistically significant increase. Lahore is an exception to the effect of school closures, but it too saw an increase in COVID-19 cases after schools reopened in early 2021. We show that closing schools was a viable policy option, especially before vaccines became available. However, its social and economic costs must also be considered.

Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK

Some social settings such as households and workplaces, have been identified as high risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Identifying and quantifying the importance of these settings is critical for designing interventions. A tightly-knit religious community in the UK experienced a very large COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, reaching 64.3% seroprevalence within 10 months, and we surveyed this community both for serological status and individual-level attendance at particular settings. Using these data, and a network model of people and places represented as a stochastic graph rewriting system, we estimated the relative contribution of transmission in households, schools and religious institutions to the epidemic, and the relative risk of infection in each of these settings. All congregate settings were important for transmission, with some such as primary schools and places of worship having a higher share of transmission than others. We found that the model needed a higher general-community transmission rate for women (3.3-fold), and lower susceptibility to infection in children to recreate the observed serological data. The precise share of transmission in each place was related to assumptions about the internal structure of those places. Identification of key settings of transmission can allow public health interventions to be targeted at these locations.

Assessing the role of imported cases on the establishment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of concern in Bolton, United Kingdom

This paper presents a method used to rapidly assess the incursion and the establishment of community transmission of suspected SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Delta (lineage B.1.617.2) into the UK in April and May 2021. The method described is independent of any genetically sequenced data, and so avoids the inherent lag times involved in sequencing of cases. We show that, between 1 April and 12 May 2021, there was a strong correlation between local authorities with high numbers of imported positive cases from India and high COVID-19 case rates, and that this relationship holds as we look at finer geographic detail. Further, we also show that Bolton was an outlier in the relationship, having the highest COVID-19 case rates despite relatively few importations. We use an artificial neural network trained on demographic data, to show that observed importations in Bolton were consistent with similar areas. Finally, using an SEIR transmission model, we show that imported positive cases were a contributing factor to persistent transmission in a number of local authorities, however they could not account for increased case rates observed in Bolton. As such, the outbreak of Delta variant in Bolton was likely not a result of direct importation from overseas, but rather secondary transmission from other regions within the UK.

Non-pharmaceutical intervention levels to reduce the COVID-19 attack ratio among children

The attack ratio in a subpopulation is defined as the total number of infections over the total number of individuals in this subpopulation. Using a methodology based on an age-stratified transmission dynamics model, we estimated the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children (individuals 0-11 years) when a large proportion of individuals eligible for vaccination (age 12 and above) are vaccinated to contain the epidemic among this subpopulation, or the effective herd immunity (with additional physical distancing measures). We describe the relationship between the attack ratio among children, the time to remove infected individuals from the transmission chain and the children-to-children daily contact rate while considering the increased transmissibility of virus variants (using the Delta variant as an example). We illustrate the generality and applicability of the methodology established by performing an analysis of the attack ratio of COVID-19 among children in the population of Canada and in its province of Ontario. The clinical attack ratio, defined as the number of symptomatic infections over the total population, can be informed from the attack ratio and both can be reduced substantially via a combination of reduced social mixing and rapid testing and isolation of the children.

No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020

Among tool kits to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, school closures are one of the most frequent non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, school closures bring about substantial costs, such as learning loss. To date, studies have not reached a consensus about the effectiveness of these policies at mitigating community transmission, partly because they lack rigorous causal inference. Here we assess the causal effect of school closures in Japan on reducing the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020. By matching each municipality with open schools to a municipality with closed schools that is the most similar in terms of potential confounders, we can estimate how many cases the municipality with open schools would have had if it had closed its schools. We do not find any evidence that school closures in Japan reduced the spread of COVID-19. Our null results suggest that policies on school closures should be reexamined given the potential negative consequences for children and parents.

The impact of public health interventions in the Nordic countries during the first year of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and evolution

BackgroundMany countries have attempted to mitigate and control COVID-19 through non-pharmaceutical interventions, particularly with the aim of reducing population movement and contact. However, it remains unclear how the different control strategies impacted the local phylodynamics of the causative SARS-CoV-2 virus.AimWe aimed to assess the duration of chains of virus transmission within individual countries and the extent to which countries exported viruses to their geographical neighbours.MethodsWe analysed complete SARS-CoV-2 genomes to infer the relative frequencies of virus importation and exportation, as well as virus transmission dynamics, in countries of northern Europe. We examined virus evolution and phylodynamics in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.ResultsThe Nordic countries differed markedly in the invasiveness of control strategies, which we found reflected in transmission chain dynamics. For example, Sweden, which compared with the other Nordic countries relied more on recommendation-based rather than legislation-based mitigation interventions, had transmission chains that were more numerous and tended to have more cases. This trend increased over the first 8 months of 2020. Together with Denmark, Sweden was a net exporter of SARS-CoV-2. Norway and Finland implemented legislation-based interventions; their transmission chain dynamics were in stark contrast to their neighbouring country Sweden.ConclusionSweden constituted an epidemiological and evolutionary refugium that enabled the virus to maintain active transmission and spread to other geographical locations. Our analysis reveals the utility of genomic surveillance where monitoring of active transmission chains is a key metric.

Practical Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Indoor Air Quality and Thermal Comfort in Kindergartens. A Case Study of Slovenia

The experimental monitoring of carbon dioxide concentration was carried out in kindergartens in Slovenia, together with indoor air temperature and relative humidity, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the research was to estimate the practical impact of the pandemic on indoor air quality and thermal comfort. The case study sample included buildings with different architectural typology, which are predominantly present in the building stock of Slovenia. The monitoring process lasted for 125 days before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results have shown a better indoor air quality in kindergartens during the pandemic, mostly due to ventilation protocols and almost imperceptibly changed indoor air temperature. The COVID-19 pandemic affected air quality in kindergarten classrooms in Slovenia by reducing the average carbon dioxide concentration when children were present in classrooms by 30%.

The impact of COVID-19 on college students' physical activity: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to assess the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on college students' physical activity.

METHODS

All cohort studies comparing college students undertaking physical exercise at school before the COVID-19 pandemic and physical exercise at home during the COVID-19 pandemic will be included in this review. We will use index words related to college students, physical exercise, and COVID-19 to perform literature searches in the PubMed, Medline, Embase, and CNKI databases, to include articles indexed as of June 20, 2021, in English and Chinese. Two reviewers will independently select trials for inclusion, assess trial quality, and extract information for each trial. The primary outcomes are exercise frequency, duration, intensity, and associated factors. Based on the Cochrane assessment tool, we will evaluate the risk of bias of the included studies. Revman 5.3 (the Cochrane collaboration, Oxford, UK) will be used for heterogeneity assessment, data synthesis, subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, and funnel plot generation.

RESULT

We will discuss the impact of COVID-19 on college students' physical activity.

CONCLUSION

Stronger evidence about the impact of COVID-19 on college students' physical activity will be provided to better guide teaching practice.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021262390.

Big Data for Biomedical Education with a Focus on the COVID-19 Era: An Integrative Review of the Literature

Medical education refers to education and training delivered to medical students in order to become a practitioner. In recent decades, medicine has been radically transformed by scientific and computational/digital advances—including the introduction of new information and communication technologies, the discovery of DNA, and the birth of genomics and post-genomics super-specialties (transcriptomics, proteomics, interactomics, and metabolomics/metabonomics, among others)—which contribute to the generation of an unprecedented amount of data, so-called ‘big data’. While these are well-studied in fields such as medical research and methodology, translational medicine, and clinical practice, they remain overlooked and understudied in the field of medical education. For this purpose, we carried out an integrative review of the literature. Twenty-nine studies were retrieved and synthesized in the present review. Included studies were published between 2012 and 2021. Eleven studies were performed in North America: specifically, nine were conducted in the USA and two studies in Canada. Six studies were carried out in Europe: two in France, two in Germany, one in Italy, and one in several European countries. One additional study was conducted in China. Eight papers were commentaries/theoretical or perspective articles, while five were designed as a case study. Five investigations exploited large databases and datasets, while five additional studies were surveys. Two papers employed visual data analytical/data mining techniques. Finally, other two papers were technical papers, describing the development of software, computational tools and/or learning environments/platforms, while two additional studies were literature reviews (one of which being systematic and bibliometric).The following nine sub-topics could be identified: (I) knowledge and awareness of big data among medical students; (II) difficulties and challenges in integrating and implementing big data teaching into the medical syllabus; (III) exploiting big data to review, improve and enhance medical school curriculum; (IV) exploiting big data to monitor the effectiveness of web-based learning environments among medical students; (V) exploiting big data to capture the determinants and signatures of successful academic performance and counteract/prevent drop-out; (VI) exploiting big data to promote equity, inclusion, and diversity; (VII) exploiting big data to enhance integrity and ethics, avoiding plagiarism and duplication rate; (VIII) empowering medical students, improving and enhancing medical practice; and, (IX) exploiting big data in continuous medical education and learning. These sub-themes were subsequently grouped in the following four major themes/topics: namely, (I) big data and medical curricula; (II) big data and medical academic performance; (III) big data and societal/bioethical issues in biomedical education; and (IV) big data and medical career. Despite the increasing importance of big data in biomedicine, current medical curricula and syllabuses appear inadequate to prepare future medical professionals and practitioners that can leverage on big data in their daily clinical practice. Challenges in integrating, incorporating, and implementing big data teaching into medical school need to be overcome to facilitate the training of the next generation of medical professionals. Finally, in the present integrative review, state-of-art and future potential uses of big data in the field of biomedical discussion are envisaged, with a focus on the still ongoing “Coronavirus Disease 2019” (COVID-19) pandemic, which has been acting as a catalyst for innovation and digitalization.

Do school closures and school reopenings affect community transmission of COVID-19? A systematic review of observational studies

OBJECTIVES

To systematically reivew the observational evidence of the effect of school closures and school reopenings on SARS-CoV-2 community transmission.

SETTING

Schools (including early years settings, primary schools and secondary schools).

INTERVENTION

School closures and reopenings.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (including any measure of community infections rate, hospital admissions or mortality attributed to COVID-19).

METHODS

On 7 January 2021, we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL, the WHO Global COVID-19 Research Database, ERIC, the British Education Index, the Australian Education Index and Google, searching title and abstracts for terms related to SARS-CoV-2 AND terms related to schools or non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We used the Cochrane Risk of Bias In Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool to evaluate bias.

RESULTS

We identified 7474 articles, of which 40 were included, with data from 150 countries. Of these, 32 studies assessed school closures and 11 examined reopenings. There was substantial heterogeneity between school closure studies, with half of the studies at lower risk of bias reporting reduced community transmission by up to 60% and half reporting null findings. The majority (n=3 out of 4) of school reopening studies at lower risk of bias reported no associated increases in transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

School closure studies were at risk of confounding and collinearity from other non-pharmacological interventions implemented around the same time as school closures, and the effectiveness of closures remains uncertain. School reopenings, in areas of low transmission and with appropriate mitigation measures, were generally not accompanied by increasing community transmission. With such varied evidence on effectiveness, and the harmful effects, policymakers should take a measured approach before implementing school closures; and should look to reopen schools in times of low transmission, with appropriate mitigation measures.

Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK

Infectious disease modelling has played an integral part of the scientific evidence used to guide the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the UK, modelling evidence used for policy is reported to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) modelling subgroup, SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling-Operational). This Special Issue contains 20 articles detailing evidence that underpinned advice to the UK government during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the UK between January 2020 and July 2020. Here, we introduce the UK scientific advisory system and how it operates in practice, and discuss how infectious disease modelling can be useful in policy making. We examine the drawbacks of current publishing practices and academic credit and highlight the importance of transparency and reproducibility during an epidemic emergency. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Systematic review of empirical studies comparing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19

Objectives

To evaluate which non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been more and less effective in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

We performed a systematic review of published and unpublished empirical studies, either observational or interventional, analysing the comparative effectiveness of NPIs against the COVID-19 pandemic. We searched Embase/Medline and medRxiv to identify the relevant literature.

Results

We identified 34 studies. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, school closing was the most effective NPI, followed by workplace closing, business and venue closing and public event bans. Public information campaigns and mask wearing requirements were also effective in controlling the pandemic while being less disruptive for the population than other NPIs. There was no evidence on the effectiveness of public transport closure, testing and contact tracing strategies and quarantining or isolation of individuals. Early implementation was associated with a higher effectiveness in reducing COVID-19 cases and deaths, while general stringency of the NPIs was not.

Conclusions

In this systematic review, we found that school closing, followed by workplace closing, business and venue closing and public event bans were the most effective NPIs in controlling the spread of COVID-19. An early response and a combination of specific social distancing measures are effective at reducing COVID-19 cases and deaths. Continuous monitoring of NPIs effectiveness is needed in order to adapt decision making.

Labrecque J, S. Kaufman J. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by Children

BACKGROUND

Six months into the COVID-19 pandemic, children appear largely spared from the direct effects of disease, suggesting age as an important predictor of infection and severity. They remain, however, impacted by far-reaching public health interventions. One crucial question often posed is whether children generally transmit SARS-CoV-2 effectively.

METHODS

We assessed the components of transmission and the different study designs and considerations necessary for valid assessment of transmission dynamics. We searched for published evidence about transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children employing a narrative review methodology through 25 June, 2020.

RESULTS

Transmission dynamics must be studied in repre - sentative pediatric populations with a combination of study designs including rigorous epidemiological studies (e.g. in households, schools, daycares, clinical settings) and laboratory studies while taking into account the social and socio-economic contexts. Viral load (VL) estimates from representative pediatric samples of infected children are missing so far. Currently available evidence suggests that the secondary attack rate stratified by age of the infector is lower for children, however this age pattern needs to be better quantified and understood.

CONCLUSION

A generalizable pediatric evidence base is urgently needed to inform policy making now, later when facing potential subsequent waves, and extending through a future in which endemicity alongside vaccination may become the enduring reality.