Hendra virus survival does not explain spillover patterns and implicates relatively direct transmission routes from flying foxes to horses

Infection and transmission of henipavirus in animals

Henipavirus (HNV) is well known for two zoonotic viruses in the genus, Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus (NiV), which pose serious threat to human and animal health. In August 2022, a third zoonotic virus in the genus Henipavirus, Langya virus (LayV), was discovered in China. The emergence of HeV, NiV, and LayV highlights the persistent threat of HNV to human and animal health. In addition to the above three HNVs, new species within this genus are still being discovered. Although they have not yet caused a pandemic in humans or livestock, they still have the risk of spillover as a potential threat to the health of humans and animals. It's important to understand the infection and transmission of different HNV in animals for the prevention and control of current or future HNV epidemics. Therefore, this review mainly summarizes the animal origin, animal infection and transmission of HNV that have been found worldwide, and further analyzes and summarizes the rules of infection and transmission, so as to provide a reference for relevant scientific researchers. Furthermore, it can provide a direction for epidemic prevention and control, and animal surveillance to reduce the risk of the global pandemic of HNV.

Movement can mediate temporal mismatches between resource availability and biological events in host-pathogen interactions

Global change is shifting the timing of biological events, leading to temporal mismatches between biological events and resource availability. These temporal mismatches can threaten species' populations. Importantly, temporal mismatches not only exert strong pressures on the population dynamics of the focal species, but can also lead to substantial changes in pairwise species interactions such as host-pathogen systems. We adapted an established individual-based model of host-pathogen dynamics. The model describes a viral agent in a social host, while accounting for the host's explicit movement decisions. We aimed to investigate how temporal mismatches between seasonal resource availability and host life-history events affect host-pathogen coexistence, that is, disease persistence. Seasonal resource fluctuations only increased coexistence probability when in synchrony with the hosts' biological events. However, a temporal mismatch reduced host-pathogen coexistence, but only marginally. In tandem with an increasing temporal mismatch, our model showed a shift in the spatial distribution of infected hosts. It shifted from an even distribution under synchronous conditions toward the formation of disease hotspots, when host life history and resource availability mismatched completely. The spatial restriction of infected hosts to small hotspots in the landscape initially suggested a lower coexistence probability due to the critical loss of susceptible host individuals within those hotspots. However, the surrounding landscape facilitated demographic rescue through habitat-dependent movement. Our work demonstrates that the negative effects of temporal mismatches between host resource availability and host life history on host-pathogen coexistence can be reduced through the formation of temporary disease hotspots and host movement decisions, with implications for disease management under disturbances and global change.

Epidemiology of Chlamydia psittaci infections in pregnant Thoroughbred mares and foals

Late-term foal loss due to the traditional avian pathogen Chlamydia psittaci recently emerged as a threat to the Australian Thoroughbred industry. A longitudinal study of 14 stud farms was undertaken to better understand C. psittaci infection in pregnant mares and their foals by evaluating C. psittaci prevalence, equine herpesvirus-1 (EHV-1) co-infection, avian reservoirs, and potential risk factors. Mucosal swabs taken from 228 healthy pregnant mares and their foals were tested for C. psittaci and EHV-1 using species-specific qPCR assays. No foal loss was recorded due to either pathogen, and no mare tested positive to either C. psittaci or EHV-1. However, healthy newborn foals tested positive to both pathogens, at low levels, with 13.2% (n = 30/228) and 14.5% (n = 33/228) prevalence for C. psittaci and EHV-1, respectively. Co-infection occurred in 1.3% (n = 3/228) of foals. In avian environmental faecal samples collected from the same studs, C. psittaci was detected at 5.3% (n = 5/94). Multiple logistic regression modelling found that foals born in winter were more likely to be infected with C. psittaci (adjusted odds ratio = 15.83; P < 0.001; Confidence Interval 5.12-48.49). Being a maiden mare, absence of prophylactic vaginal suture, interventions in the last trimester and residing on a farm with prior history of C. psittaci abortion posed no higher risk to infection in the newborn. Analysis of all reported C. psittaci abortion cases (Hunter Valley, 2016-2019) revealed a dominant C. psittaci sequence type (denoted ST24) and a significant correlation with frost events (Spearmans' rho = 0.44; P = 0.002).

Ecological Countermeasures for Preventing Zoonotic Disease Outbreaks: When Ecological Restoration is a Human Health Imperative

Ecological restoration should be regarded as a public health service. Unfortunately, the lack of quantitative linkages between environmental and human health has limited recognition of this principle. The advent of COVID-19 pandemic provides the impetus for the further discussion. We propose ecological countermeasures as highly targeted, landscape-based interventions to arrest the drivers of land use-induced zoonotic spillover. We provide examples of ecological restoration activities that reduce zoonotic disease risk and a five-point action plan at the human-ecosystem health nexus. In conclusion, we make the case that ecological countermeasures are a tenant of restoration ecology with human health goals. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Hendra virus: Epidemiology dynamics in relation to climate change, diagnostic tests and control measures

Hendra virus (HeV) continues to pose a serious public health concern as spillover events occur sporadically. Terminally ill horses can exhibit a range of clinical signs including frothy nasal discharge, ataxia or forebrain signs. Early signs, if detected, can include depression, inappetence, colic or mild respiratory signs. All unvaccinated ill horses in areas where flying foxes exist, may potentially be infected with HeV, posing a significant risk to the veterinary community. Equivac® HeV vaccine has been fully registered in Australia since 2015 (and under an Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority special permit since 2012) for immunization of horses against HeV and is the most effective and direct solution to prevent disease transmission to horses and protect humans. No HeV vaccinated horse has tested positive for HeV infection. There is no registered vaccine to prevent, or therapeutics to treat, HeV infection in humans. Previous equine HeV outbreaks tended to cluster in winter overlapping with the foaling season (August to December), when veterinarians and horse owners have frequent close contact with horses and their bodily fluids, increasing the chance of zoonotic disease transmission. The most southerly case was detected in 2019 in the Upper Hunter region in New South Wales, which is Australia's Thoroughbred horse breeding capital. Future spillover events are predicted to move further south and inland in Queensland and New South Wales, aligning with the moving distribution of the main reservoir hosts. Here we (1) review HeV epidemiology and climate change predicted infection dynamics, (2) present a biosecurity protocol for veterinary clinics and hospitals to adopt, and (3) describe diagnostic tests currently available and those under development. Major knowledge and research gaps have been identified, including evaluation of vaccine efficacy in foals to assess current vaccination protocol recommendations.

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Hendra virus (HeV) continues to pose a serious public health threat to the equine and veterinary industries.

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HeV cases are likely to expand further south and inland due to climate change.

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Strict HeV specific biosecurity protocols should be implemented to protect veterinary staff.

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Research into HeV vaccination protocols in foals is required for evidence-based recommendations.

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Point-of-care and other diagnostic tests for HeV are currently under development.

Hendra in the Hunter Valley

In June 2019 the first equine case of Hendra virus in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia was detected. An urgent human and animal health response took place, involving biosecurity measures, contact tracing, promotion of equine vaccinations and investigation of flying fox activity in the area.

No human or additional animal cases occurred. Equine vaccination uptake increased by over 30-fold in the surrounding region in the three months following the case. Black flying fox and grey-headed flying fox species were detected in the Valley. The incident prompted review of Hendra virus resources at local and national levels.

This event near the “horse capital of Australia”, is the southernmost known equine Hendra case. Management of the event was facilitated by interagency collaboration involving human and animal health experts. Ongoing One Health partnerships are essential for successful responses to future zoonotic events.

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In June 2019 the southernmost known equine case of Hendra virus was detected in the Hunter Valley, Australia.

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This signified an increase in potential equine and human populations at risk of infection.

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Interagency collaboration between animal and human health experts is essential in managing Hendra virus spillover events.

Information delivery and the veterinarian-horse owner relationship in the context of Hendra virus in Australia

Hendra virus (HeV) is an emerging bat-borne virus endemic in Australia that can be transmitted from horses to humans and has a high fatality rate for horses and people. Controversy surrounding HeV risk mitigation measures have strained the veterinarian-horse owner relationship. This study aimed to characterise the veterinarian-horse owner relationship in general and also in the context of HeV by analysing data derived from the 'Horse Owners and Hendra Virus: A Longitudinal Study to Evaluate Risk' (HHALTER) study. Australian horse owners were recruited via emails, social media and word-of-mouth for a series of five surveys that were administered online at six-monthly intervals over a two-year period to capture baseline knowledge, attitudes and practices of horse owners regarding HeV and any changes over time. In the current study, descriptive analyses of information sources were performed to understand the use of veterinarians as a HeV information source (Surveys 1 and 5; n = 1195 and n = 617). Ordinal logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine factors associated with the frequency of horse owner contact with a veterinarian (Survey 3; n = 636). This study found a relative increase over the study period in the proportion of horse owners who had used veterinarians as HeV information source in the last 12 months (from 51.9% to 88.3%). Owning more horses, being older, having a 'duty of care' for other people working with horses and deriving the main income from horse related business were factors associated with more frequent veterinary contact. Results suggest that traditional information sources such as workshops, information packs and risk training are likely to be used by horse owners. Smart phone applications should be considered for use in the future and require further investigation for horse health communication. The findings of this study may be helpful in optimising strategies for horse health information delivery.

Synchronous shedding of multiple bat paramyxoviruses coincides with peak periods of Hendra virus spillover

Within host-parasite communities, viral co-circulation and co-infections of hosts are the norm, yet studies of significant emerging zoonoses tend to focus on a single parasite species within the host. Using a multiplexed paramyxovirus bead-based PCR on urine samples from Australian flying foxes, we show that multi-viral shedding from flying fox populations is common. We detected up to nine bat paramyxoviruses shed synchronously. Multi-viral shedding infrequently coalesced into an extreme, brief and spatially restricted shedding pulse, coinciding with peak spillover of Hendra virus, an emerging fatal zoonotic pathogen of high interest. Such extreme pulses of multi-viral shedding could easily be missed during routine surveillance yet have potentially serious consequences for spillover of novel pathogens to humans and domestic animal hosts. We also detected co-occurrence patterns suggestive of the presence of interactions among viruses, such as facilitation and cross-immunity. We propose that multiple viruses may be interacting, influencing the shedding and spillover of zoonotic pathogens. Understanding these interactions in the context of broader scale drivers, such as habitat loss, may help predict shedding pulses of Hendra virus and other fatal zoonoses.

Sampling to elucidate the dynamics of infections in reservoir hosts

The risk of zoonotic spillover from reservoir hosts, such as wildlife or domestic livestock, to people is shaped by the spatial and temporal distribution of infection in reservoir populations. Quantifying these distributions is a key challenge in epidemiology and disease ecology that requires researchers to make trade-offs between the extent and intensity of spatial versus temporal sampling. We discuss sampling methods that strengthen the reliability and validity of inferences about the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in wildlife hosts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Ecological interventions to prevent and manage zoonotic pathogen spillover

Spillover of a pathogen from a wildlife reservoir into a human or livestock host requires the pathogen to overcome a hierarchical series of barriers. Interventions aimed at one or more of these barriers may be able to prevent the occurrence of spillover. Here, we demonstrate how interventions that target the ecological context in which spillover occurs (i.e. ecological interventions) can complement conventional approaches like vaccination, treatment, disinfection and chemical control. Accelerating spillover owing to environmental change requires effective, affordable, durable and scalable solutions that fully harness the complex processes involved in cross-species pathogen spillover.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover’.

Prioritizing surveillance of Nipah virus in India

The 2018 outbreak of Nipah virus in Kerala, India, highlights the need for global surveillance of henipaviruses in bats, which are the reservoir hosts for this and other viruses. Nipah virus, an emerging paramyxovirus in the genus Henipavirus, causes severe disease and stuttering chains of transmission in humans and is considered a potential pandemic threat. In May 2018, an outbreak of Nipah virus began in Kerala, > 1800 km from the sites of previous outbreaks in eastern India in 2001 and 2007. Twenty-three people were infected and 21 people died (16 deaths and 18 cases were laboratory confirmed). Initial surveillance focused on insectivorous bats (Megaderma spasma), whereas follow-up surveys within Kerala found evidence of Nipah virus in fruit bats (Pteropus medius). P. medius is the confirmed host in Bangladesh and is now a confirmed host in India. However, other bat species may also serve as reservoir hosts of henipaviruses. To inform surveillance of Nipah virus in bats, we reviewed and analyzed the published records of Nipah virus surveillance globally. We applied a trait-based machine learning approach to a subset of species that occur in Asia, Australia, and Oceana. In addition to seven species in Kerala that were previously identified as Nipah virus seropositive, we identified at least four bat species that, on the basis of trait similarity with known Nipah virus-seropositive species, have a relatively high likelihood of exposure to Nipah or Nipah-like viruses in India. These machine-learning approaches provide the first step in the sequence of studies required to assess the risk of Nipah virus spillover in India. Nipah virus surveillance not only within Kerala but also elsewhere in India would benefit from a research pipeline that included surveys of known and predicted reservoirs for serological evidence of past infection with Nipah virus (or cross reacting henipaviruses). Serosurveys should then be followed by longitudinal spatial and temporal studies to detect shedding and isolate virus from species with evidence of infection. Ecological studies will then be required to understand the dynamics governing prevalence and shedding in bats and the contacts that could pose a risk to public health.

Optimal foraging in seasonal environments: implications for residency of Australian flying foxes in food-subsidized urban landscapes

Bats provide important ecosystem services such as pollination of native forests; they are also a source of zoonotic pathogens for humans and domestic animals. Human-induced changes to native habitats may have created more opportunities for bats to reside in urban settings, thus decreasing pollination services to native forests and increasing opportunities for zoonotic transmission. In Australia, fruit bats (Pteropus spp. flying foxes) are increasingly inhabiting urban areas where they feed on anthropogenic food sources with nutritional characteristics and phenology that differ from native habitats. We use optimal foraging theory to investigate the relationship between bat residence time in a patch, the time it takes to search for a new patch (simulating loss of native habitat) and seasonal resource production. We show that it can be beneficial to reside in a patch, even when food productivity is low, as long as foraging intensity is low and the expected searching time is high. A small increase in the expected patch searching time greatly increases the residence time, suggesting nonlinear associations between patch residence and loss of seasonal native resources. We also found that sudden increases in resource consumption due to an influx of new bats has complex effects on patch departure times that again depend on expected searching times and seasonality. Our results suggest that the increased use of urban landscapes by bats may be a response to new spatial and temporal configurations of foraging opportunities. Given that bats are reservoir hosts of zoonotic diseases, our results provide a framework to study the effects of foraging ecology on disease dynamics.One contribution of 14 to a theme isssue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'.

Hendra Virus Spillover is a Bimodal System Driven by Climatic Factors

Understanding environmental factors driving spatiotemporal patterns of disease can improve risk mitigation strategies. Hendra virus (HeV), discovered in Australia in 1994, spills over from bats (Pteropus sp.) to horses and thence to humans. Below latitude - 22°, almost all spillover events to horses occur during winter, and above this latitude spillover is aseasonal. We generated a statistical model of environmental drivers of HeV spillover per month. The model reproduced the spatiotemporal pattern of spillover risk between 1994 and 2015. The model was generated with an ensemble of methods for presence-absence data (boosted regression trees, random forests and logistic regression). Presences were the locations of horse cases, and absences per spatial unit (2.7 × 2.7 km pixels without spillover) were sampled with the horse census of Queensland and New South Wales. The most influential factors indicate that spillover is associated with both cold-dry and wet conditions. Bimodal responses to several variables suggest spillover involves two systems: one above and one below a latitudinal area close to - 22°. Northern spillovers are associated with cold-dry and wet conditions, and southern with cold-dry conditions. Biologically, these patterns could be driven by immune or behavioural changes in response to food shortage in bats and horse husbandry. Future research should look for differences in these traits between seasons in the two latitudinal regions. Based on the predicted risk patterns by latitude, we recommend enhanced preventive management for horses from March to November below latitude 22° south.

Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk

Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175-260% (110,000-165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.

Changing resource landscapes and spillover of henipaviruses

Old World fruit bats (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) provide critical pollination and seed dispersal services to forest ecosystems across Africa, Asia, and Australia. In each of these regions, pteropodids have been identified as natural reservoir hosts for henipaviruses. The genus Henipavirus includes Hendra virus and Nipah virus, which regularly spill over from bats to domestic animals and humans in Australia and Asia, and a suite of largely uncharacterized African henipaviruses. Rapid change in fruit bat habitat and associated shifts in their ecology and behavior are well documented, with evidence suggesting that altered diet, roosting habitat, and movement behaviors are increasing spillover risk of bat-borne viruses. We review the ways that changing resource landscapes affect the processes that culminate in cross-species transmission of henipaviruses, from reservoir host density and distribution to within-host immunity and recipient host exposure. We evaluate existing evidence and highlight gaps in knowledge that are limiting our understanding of the ecological drivers of henipavirus spillover. When considering spillover in the context of land-use change, we emphasize that it is especially important to disentangle the effects of habitat loss and resource provisioning on these processes, and to jointly consider changes in resource abundance, quality, and composition.

Domesticated animals as hosts of henipaviruses and filoviruses: A systematic review

Bat-borne viruses carry undeniable risks to the health of human beings and animals, and there is growing recognition of the need for a 'One Health' approach to understand their frequently complex spill-over routes. While domesticated animals can play central roles in major spill-over events of zoonotic bat-borne viruses, for example during the pig-amplified Malaysian Nipah virus outbreak of 1998-1999, the extent of their potential to act as bridging or amplifying species for these viruses has not been characterised systematically. This review aims to compile current knowledge on the role of domesticated animals as hosts of two types of bat-borne viruses, henipaviruses and filoviruses. A systematic literature search of these virus-host interactions in domesticated animals identified 72 relevant studies, which were categorised by year, location, design and type of evidence generated. The review then focusses on Africa as a case study, comparing research efforts in domesticated animals and bats with the distributions of documented human cases. Major gaps remain in our knowledge of the potential ability of domesticated animals to contract or spread these zoonoses. Closing these gaps will be necessary to fully evaluate and mitigate spill-over risks of these viruses, especially with global agricultural intensification.

Application of a quantitative entry assessment model to compare the relative risk of incursion of zoonotic bat-borne viruses into European Union Member States

This paper presents a quantitative assessment model for the risk of entry of zoonotic bat-borne viruses into the European Union (EU). The model considers four routes of introduction: human travel, legal trade of products, live animal imports and illegal import of bushmeat and was applied to five virus outbreak scenarios. Two scenarios were considered for Zaire ebolavirus (wEBOV, cEBOV) and other scenarios for Hendra virus, Marburg virus (MARV) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV). The use of the same framework and generic data sources for all EU Member States (MS) allows for a relative comparison of the probability of virus introduction and of the importance of the routes of introduction among MSs. According to the model wEBOV posed the highest risk of an introduction event within the EU, followed by MARV and MERS-CoV. However, the main route of introduction differed, with wEBOV and MERS-CoV most likely through human travel and MARV through legal trade of foodstuffs. The relative risks to EU MSs as entry points also varied between outbreak scenarios, highlighting the heterogeneity in global trade and travel to the EU MSs. The model has the capability to allow for a continual updating of the risk estimate using new data as, and when, it becomes available. The model provides an horizon scanning tool for use when available data are limited and, therefore, the absolute risk estimates often have high uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis suggested virus prevalence in bats has a large influence on the results; a 90% reduction in prevalence reduced the risk of introduction considerably and resulted in the relative ranking of MARV falling below that for MERS-CoV, due to this parameter disproportionately affecting the risk of introduction from the trade route over human travel.

The impact of human population pressure on flying fox niches and the potential consequences for Hendra virus spillover

Hendra virus (HeV) is an emerging pathogen of concern in Australia given its ability to spillover from its reservoir host, pteropid bats, to horses and further on to humans, and the severe clinical presentation typical in these latter incidental hosts. Specific human pressures over recent decades, such as expanding human populations, urbanization, and forest fragmentation, may have altered the ecological niche of Pteropus species acting as natural HeV reservoirs and may modulate spillover risk. This study explored the influence of inter-decadal net human local migration between 1970 and 2000 on changes in the habitat suitability to P. alecto and P. conspicillatus from 1980 to 2015 in eastern Australia. These ecological niches were modeled using boosted regression trees and subsequently fitted, along with additional landscape factors, to HeV spillovers to explore the spatial dependency of this zoonosis. The spatial model showed that the ecological niche of these two flying fox species, the human footprint, and proximity to woody savanna were each strongly associated with HeV spillover and together explained most of the spatial dependency exhibited by this zoonosis. These findings reinforce the potential for anthropogenic pressures to shape the landscape epidemiology of HeV spillover.

Microclimates Might Limit Indirect Spillover of the Bat Borne Zoonotic Hendra Virus

Infectious diseases are transmitted when susceptible hosts are exposed to pathogen particles that can replicate within them. Among factors that limit transmission, the environment is particularly important for indirectly transmitted parasites. To try and assess a pathogens' ability to be transmitted through the environment and mitigate risk, we need to quantify its decay where transmission occurs in space such as the microclimate harbouring the pathogen. Hendra virus, a Henipavirus from Australian Pteropid bats, spills-over to horses and humans, causing high mortality. While a vaccine is available, its limited uptake has reduced opportunities for adequate risk management to humans, hence the need to develop synergistic preventive measures, like disrupting its transmission pathways. Transmission likely occurs shortly after virus excretion in paddocks; however, no survival estimates to date have used real environmental conditions. Here, we recorded microclimate conditions and fitted models that predict temperatures and potential evaporation, which we used to simulate virus survival with a temperature-survival model and modification based on evaporation. Predicted survival was lower than previously estimated and likely to be even lower according to potential evaporation. Our results indicate that transmission should occur shortly after the virus is excreted, in a relatively direct way. When potential evaporation is low, and survival is more similar to temperature dependent estimates, transmission might be indirect because the virus can wait several hours until contact is made. We recommend restricting horses' access to trees during night time and reducing grass under trees to reduce virus survival.

Playing with fire - What is influencing horse owners' decisions to not vaccinate their horses against deadly Hendra virus infection?

Hendra virus is a zoonotic paramyxovirus, which causes severe respiratory and neurological disease in horses and humans. Since 2012, the Hendra virus sub-unit G vaccine has been available for horse vaccination in Australia. Uptake of the vaccine has been limited and spill-over events of Hendra virus infection in horses continue to occur. We conducted an online, questionnaire-based cross-sectional study of 376 horse owners belonging to a variety of different equestrian clubs in Queensland, Australia, to identify risk factors for non-vaccination against Hendra virus. A total of 43.1% (N = 162) of horse owners indicated that they currently did not vaccinate against Hendra virus infection, while 56.9% (N = 214) currently vaccinated against Hendra virus infection. A total of 52 risk factors were evaluated relating to equestrian activities, horse management, perceived risk and severity of horse and human infection with Hendra virus, side effects of Hendra vaccination, other vaccinations conducted by horse owners and horse owners’ attitudes towards veterinarians. The final multivariable logistics regression model identified the following risk factors associated with increased odds of non-vaccination against Hendra virus: 1) perceived low risk (compared to high) of Hendra virus infection to horses (considering the horse owners’ location and management practices) or horse owners were unsure about the risk of infection, 2) perceived moderate severity (compared to very severe or severe) of Hendra virus infection in humans, 3) horse owners non-vaccination of their pets, 4) horse owners non-vaccination against strangles disease in horses, 5) handling of more than three horses per week (compared to one horse only) and 6) perceived attitude that veterinarians had a high motivation of making money from Hendra virus vaccination (compared to veterinarians having a low motivation of making money from Hendra virus vaccination). Horse owners were more likely to vaccinate against Hendra virus if horses were used for dressage, show jumping or eventing. The study also identified horse owners’ concerns about side-effects and about the lack of evidence on vaccine efficacy.

"Why won't they just vaccinate?" Horse owner risk perception and uptake of the Hendra virus vaccine

BACKGROUND

Hendra virus is a paramyxovirus that causes periodic serious disease and fatalities in horses and humans in Australia first identified in 1994. Pteropid bats (commonly known as flying-foxes) are the natural host of the virus, and the putative route of infection in horses is by ingestion or inhalation of material contaminated by flying-fox urine or other bodily fluids. Humans become infected after close contact with infected horses. Horse owners in Australia are encouraged to vaccinate their horses against Hendra virus to reduce the risk of Hendra virus infection, and to prevent potential transmission to humans. After the vaccine was released in 2012, uptake by horse owners was slow, with some estimated 11-17% of horses in Australia vaccinated. This study was commissioned to examine barriers to vaccine uptake and potential drivers to future adoption of vaccination by horse owners.

METHODS

This study examined qualitative comments from respondents to an on-line survey, reporting reasons for not vaccinating their horses. The study also investigated scenarios in which respondents felt they might consider vaccinating their horses.

RESULTS

Self-reported barriers to uptake of the Hendra virus vaccine by horse owners (N = 150) included concerns about vaccine safety, cost, and effectiveness. Reduction in vaccination costs and perception of immediacy of Hendra virus risk were reported as being likely to change future behaviour. However, the data also indicated that horse owners generally would not reconsider vaccinating their horses if advised by their veterinarian.

CONCLUSION

While changes to vaccine costs and the availability data supporting vaccine safety and efficacy may encourage more horse owners to vaccinate, this study highlights the importance of protecting the relationship between veterinarians and horse owners within the risk management strategies around Hendra virus. Interactions and trust between veterinarians and animal owners has important implications for management of and communication around Hendra virus and other zoonotic disease outbreaks.

Bat and virus ecology in a dynamic world

The emergence of infectious diseases caused by bat-associated viruses has had a devastating and wide-reaching effect on human populations. These viruses include lyssaviruses such as rabies virus, the filoviruses, Ebola (EBOV) and Marburg virus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, and the paramyxoviruses, Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus (NiV)1. As a result bats have been the focus of substantial research (Fig. 1) and certain cellular and physiological traits of bats are hypothesised to lead to ‘special’ bat-virus associations2,3 (but see Han et al.4). The anthropogenic changes in the world we live will influence human health5, including through their impact on bat ecology and the viruses within bat populations. Australian people and livestock have been infected by novel bat viruses, such as HeV, Menangle viruses (MenV) and Australian bat lyssavirus (ABLV), and are at the forefront of both epidemiological and virological research efforts into cross-species transmission events (spillover): here we put some of those efforts and the potential impacts of anthropogenic changes on bat-virus ecology under the microscope.

Models of Eucalypt phenology predict bat population flux

Fruit bats (Pteropodidae) have received increased attention after the recent emergence of notable viral pathogens of bat origin. Their vagility hinders data collection on abundance and distribution, which constrains modeling efforts and our understanding of bat ecology, viral dynamics, and spillover. We addressed this knowledge gap with models and data on the occurrence and abundance of nectarivorous fruit bat populations at 3 day roosts in southeast Queensland. We used environmental drivers of nectar production as predictors and explored relationships between bat abundance and virus spillover. Specifically, we developed several novel modeling tools motivated by complexities of fruit bat foraging ecology, including: (1) a dataset of spatial variables comprising Eucalypt-focused vegetation indices, cumulative precipitation, and temperature anomaly; (2) an algorithm that associated bat population response with spatial covariates in a spatially and temporally relevant way given our current understanding of bat foraging behavior; and (3) a thorough statistical learning approach to finding optimal covariate combinations. We identified covariates that classify fruit bat occupancy at each of our three study roosts with 86-93% accuracy. Negative binomial models explained 43-53% of the variation in observed abundance across roosts. Our models suggest that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in Eucalypt-based food resources could drive at least 50% of bat population behavior at the landscape scale. We found that 13 spillover events were observed within the foraging range of our study roosts, and they occurred during times when models predicted low population abundance. Our results suggest that, in southeast Queensland, spillover may not be driven by large aggregations of fruit bats attracted by nectar-based resources, but rather by behavior of smaller resident subpopulations. Our models and data integrated remote sensing and statistical learning to make inferences on bat ecology and disease dynamics. This work provides a foundation for further studies on landscape-scale population movement and spatiotemporal disease dynamics.

Climatic suitability influences species specific abundance patterns of Australian flying foxes and risk of Hendra virus spillover

Hendra virus is a paramyxovirus of Australian flying fox bats. It was first detected in August 1994, after the death of 20 horses and one human. Since then it has occurred regularly within a portion of the geographical distribution of all Australian flying fox (fruit bat) species. There is, however, little understanding about which species are most likely responsible for spillover, or why spillover does not occur in other areas occupied by reservoir and spillover hosts. Using ecological niche models of the four flying fox species we were able to identify which species are most likely linked to spillover events using the concept of distance to the niche centroid of each species. With this novel approach we found that 20 out of 27 events occur disproportionately closer to the niche centroid of two species (P. alecto and P. conspicillatus). With linear regressions we found a negative relationship between distance to the niche centroid and abundance of these two species. Thus, we suggest that the bioclimatic niche of these two species is likely driving the spatial pattern of spillover of Hendra virus into horses and ultimately humans.

Hendra virus ecology and transmission

Hendra virus causes acute and highly fatal infection in horses and humans. Pteropid bats (flying-foxes) are the natural host of the virus, with age and species being risk factors for infection. Urine is the primary route of excretion in flying-foxes, with viral RNA more frequently detected in Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus than other species. Infection prevalence in flying-foxes can vary between and within years, with a winter peak of excretion occurring in some regions. Vertical transmission and recrudescing infection has been reported in flying-foxes, but horizontal transmission is evidently the primary mode of transmission. The most parsimonious mode of flying-fox to horse transmission is equine contact (oro-nasal, conjunctival) with infected flying-fox urine, either directly, or via urine-contaminated pasture or surfaces. Horse to horse transmission is inefficient, requiring direct contact with infected body fluids. Flying-fox to human transmission has not been recorded; all human cases have been associated with close and direct contact with infected horses. Canine cases (subclinical) have also been limited to equine case properties. Notwithstanding the recent availability of an effective vaccine for horses, a comprehensive understanding of Hendra virus ecology and transmission is essential to limit inter-species transmission.

Routes of Hendra Virus Excretion in Naturally-Infected Flying-Foxes: Implications for Viral Transmission and Spillover Risk

Pteropid bats or flying-foxes (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) are the natural host of Hendra virus (HeV) which sporadically causes fatal disease in horses and humans in eastern Australia. While there is strong evidence that urine is an important infectious medium that likely drives bat to bat transmission and bat to horse transmission, there is uncertainty about the relative importance of alternative routes of excretion such as nasal and oral secretions, and faeces. Identifying the potential routes of HeV excretion in flying-foxes is important to effectively mitigate equine exposure risk at the bat-horse interface, and in determining transmission rates in host-pathogen models. The aim of this study was to identify the major routes of HeV excretion in naturally infected flying-foxes, and secondarily, to identify between-species variation in excretion prevalence. A total of 2840 flying-foxes from three of the four Australian mainland species (Pteropus alecto, P. poliocephalus and P. scapulatus) were captured and sampled at multiple roost locations in the eastern states of Queensland and New South Wales between 2012 and 2014. A range of biological samples (urine and serum, and urogenital, nasal, oral and rectal swabs) were collected from anaesthetized bats, and tested for HeV RNA using a qRT-PCR assay targeting the M gene. Forty-two P. alecto (n = 1410) had HeV RNA detected in at least one sample, and yielded a total of 78 positive samples, at an overall detection rate of 1.76% across all samples tested in this species (78/4436). The rate of detection, and the amount of viral RNA, was highest in urine samples (>serum, packed haemocytes >faecal >nasal >oral), identifying urine as the most plausible source of infection for flying-foxes and for horses. Detection in a urine sample was more efficient than detection in urogenital swabs, identifying the former as the preferred diagnostic sample. The detection of HeV RNA in serum is consistent with haematogenous spread, and with hypothesised latency and recrudesence in flying-foxes. There were no detections in P. poliocephalus (n = 1168 animals; n = 2958 samples) or P. scapulatus (n = 262 animals; n = 985 samples), suggesting (consistent with other recent studies) that these species are epidemiologically less important than P. alecto in HeV infection dynamics. The study is unprecedented in terms of the individual animal approach, the large sample size, and the use of a molecular assay to directly determine infection status. These features provide a high level of confidence in the veracity of our findings, and a sound basis from which to more precisely target equine risk mitigation strategies.

Zoonotic Viruses and Conservation of Bats

Many of the recently emerging highly virulent zoonotic diseases have a likely bat origin, for example Hendra, Nipah, Ebola and diseases caused by coronaviruses. Presumably because of their long history of coevolution, most of these viruses remain subclinical in bats, but have the potential to cause severe illnesses in domestic and wildlife animals and also humans. Spillovers from bats to humans either happen directly (via contact with infected bats) or indirectly (via intermediate hosts such as domestic or wildlife animals, by consuming food items contaminated by saliva, faeces or urine of bats, or via other environmental sources). Increasing numbers of breakouts of zoonotic viral diseases among humans and livestock have mainly been accounted to human encroachment into natural habitat, as well as agricultural intensification, deforestation and bushmeat consumption. Persecution of bats, including the destruction of their roosts and culling of whole colonies, has led not only to declines of protected bat species, but also to an increase in virus prevalence in some of these populations. Educational efforts are needed in order to prevent future spillovers of bat-borne viruses to humans and livestock, and to further protect bats from unnecessary and counterproductive culling.