How Ebola impacts social dynamics in gorillas: a multistate modelling approach

Projecting the impact of an ebola virus outbreak on endangered mountain gorillas

Ebola virus is highly lethal for great apes. Estimated mortality rates up to 98% have reduced the global gorilla population by approximately one-third. As mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) are endangered, with just over 1000 individuals remaining in the world, an outbreak could decimate the population. Simulation modeling was used to evaluate the potential impact of an Ebola virus outbreak on the mountain gorilla population of the Virunga Massif. Findings indicate that estimated contact rates among gorilla groups are high enough to allow rapid spread of Ebola, with less than 20% of the population projected to survive at 100 days post-infection of just one gorilla. Despite increasing survival with vaccination, no modeled vaccination strategy prevented widespread infection. However, the model projected that survival rates greater than 50% could be achieved by vaccinating at least half the habituated gorillas within 3 weeks of the first infectious individual.

Population dynamics of western gorillas at Mbeli Bai

Long-term studies of population dynamics can provide insights into life history theory, population ecology, socioecology, conservation biology and wildlife management. Here we examine 25 years of population dynamics of western gorillas at Mbeli Bai, a swampy forest clearing in Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park, the Republic of Congo. The Mbeli population more than doubled from 101 to 226 gorillas during the study. After adjusting for a net influx of gorillas into the study population, the increase represents an inherent growth rate of 0.7% per year, with 95% confidence limits between -0.7% and 2.6%. The influx of gorillas mainly involved immigration of individuals into existing study groups (social dispersal), but it also included the appearance of a few previously unknown groups (locational dispersal). The average group size did not change significantly during the study, which is consistent with the possibility that western gorillas face socioecological constraints on group size, even when the population is increasing. We found no significant evidence of density dependence on female reproductive success or male mating competition. The distribution of gorillas among age/sex categories also did not change significantly, which suggests that the population had a stable age structure. Our results provide evidence of population stability or growth for some western gorillas (albeit within a small area). The results highlight the value of law enforcement, long-term monitoring, and protected areas; but they do not diminish the importance of improving conservation for this critically endangered species.

Transmission models indicate Ebola virus persistence in non-human primate populations is unlikely

Infectious diseases that kill their hosts may persist locally only if transmission is appropriately balanced by susceptible recruitment. Great apes die of Ebola virus disease (EVD) and have transmitted ebolaviruses to people. However, understanding the role that apes and other non-human primates play in maintaining ebolaviruses in Nature is hampered by a lack of data. Recent serological findings suggest that few non-human primates have antibodies to EVD-causing viruses throughout tropical Africa, suggesting low transmission rates and/or high EVD mortality (Ayouba A et al. 2019 J. Infect. Dis. 220, 1599-1608 (doi:10.1093/infdis/jiz006); Mombo IM et al. 2020 Viruses 12, 1347 (doi:10.3390/v12121347)). Here, stochastic transmission models of EVD in non-human primates assuming high case-fatality probabilities and experimentally observed or field-observed parameters did not allow viral persistence, suggesting that non-human primate populations are highly unlikely to sustain EVD-causing infection for prolonged periods. Repeated introductions led to declining population sizes, similar to field observations of apes, but not viral persistence.

The genetic impact of an Ebola outbreak on a wild gorilla population

Background

Numerous Ebola virus outbreaks have occurred in Equatorial Africa over the past decades. Besides human fatalities, gorillas and chimpanzees have also succumbed to the fatal virus. The 2004 outbreak at the Odzala-Kokoua National Park (Republic of Congo) alone caused a severe decline in the resident western lowland gorilla (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) population, with a 95% mortality rate. Here, we explore the immediate genetic impact of the Ebola outbreak in the western lowland gorilla population.

Results

Associations with survivorship were evaluated by utilizing DNA obtained from fecal samples from 16 gorilla individuals declared missing after the outbreak (non-survivors) and 15 individuals observed before and after the epidemic (survivors). We used a target enrichment approach to capture the sequences of 123 genes previously associated with immunology and Ebola virus resistance and additionally analyzed the gut microbiome which could influence the survival after an infection. Our results indicate no changes in the population genetic diversity before and after the Ebola outbreak, and no significant differences in microbial community composition between survivors and non-survivors. However, and despite the low power for an association analysis, we do detect six nominally significant missense mutations in four genes that might be candidate variants associated with an increased chance of survival.

Conclusion

This study offers the first insight to the genetics of a wild great ape population before and after an Ebola outbreak using target capture experiments from fecal samples, and presents a list of candidate loci that may have facilitated their survival.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12864-021-08025-y.

Newcastle disease virus transmission dynamics in wild peridomestic birds in the United Arab Emirates

To understand the dynamics of a pathogen in an animal population, one must assess how the infection status of individuals changes over time. With wild animals, this can be very challenging because individuals can be difficult to trap and sample, even more so since they are tested with imperfect diagnostic techniques. Multi-event capture-recapture models allow analysing longitudinal capture data of individuals whose infection status is assessed using imperfect tests. In this study, we used a two-year dataset from a longitudinal field study of peridomestic wild bird populations in the United Arab Emirates during which thousands of birds from various species were captured, sampled and tested for Newcastle disease virus exposure using a serological test. We developed a multi-event capture-recapture model to estimate important demographic and epidemiological parameters of the disease. The modelling outputs provided important insights into the understanding of Newcastle disease dynamics in peridomestics birds, which varies according to ecological and epidemiological parameters, and useful information in terms of surveillance strategies. To our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to model the dynamics of Newcastle disease in wild bird populations by combining longitudinal capture data and serological test results. Overall, it showcased that multi-event capture-recapture models represent a suitable method to analyse imperfect capture data and make reliable inferences on infectious disease dynamics in wild populations.

Decrease in social cohesion in a colonial seabird under a perturbation regime

Social interactions, through influence on behavioural processes, can play an important role in populations’ resilience (i.e. ability to cope with perturbations). However little is known about the effects of perturbations on the strength of social cohesion in wild populations. Long-term associations between individuals may reflect the existence of social cohesion for seizing the evolutionary advantages of social living. We explore the existence of social cohesion and its dynamics under perturbations by analysing long-term social associations, in a colonial seabird, the Audouin’s gull Larus audouinii, living in a site experiencing a shift to a perturbed regime. Our goals were namely (1) to uncover the occurrence of long-term social ties (i.e. associations) between individuals and (2) to examine whether the perturbation regime affected this form of social cohesion. We analysed a dataset of more than 3500 individuals from 25 years of monitoring by means of contingency tables and within the Social Network Analysis framework. We showed that associations between individuals are not only due to philopatry or random gregariousness but that there are social ties between individuals over the years. Furthermore, social cohesion decreased under the perturbation regime. We sustain that perturbations may lead not only to changes in individuals’ behaviour and fitness but also to a change in populations’ social cohesion. The consequences of decreasing social cohesion are still not well understood, but they can be critical for the population dynamics of social species.

Variation in the social organization of gorillas: Life history and socioecological perspectives

A focus of socioecological research is to understand how ecological, social, and life history factors influence the variability of social organization within and between species. The genus Gorilla exhibits variability in social organization with western gorilla groups being almost exclusively one-male, yet approximately 40% of mountain gorilla groups are multimale. We review five ultimate causes for the variability in social organization within and among gorilla populations: human disturbance, ecological constraints on group size, risk of infanticide, life history patterns, and population density. We find the most evidence for the ecological constraints and life history hypotheses, but an over-riding explanation remains elusive. The variability may hinge on variation in female dispersal patterns, as females seek a group of optimal size and with a good protector male. Our review illustrates the challenges of understanding why the social organization of closely related species may deviate from predictions based on socioecological and life history theory.

Social tipping points in animal societies in response to heat stress

Living systems sometimes experience abrupt tipping points in response to stress. Here we investigate the factors contributing to the appearance of such abrupt state transitions in animal societies. We first construct a mathematical account of how the personality compositions of societies could alter their propensity to shift from calm to violent states in response to thermal stress. To evaluate our model, we subjected experimental societies of the spider Anelosimus studiosus to heat stress. We demonstrate that both colony size and personality composition influence the timing of and recoverability from sudden transitions in social state. Groups composed of aggressive personalities transitioned into violent within-group dynamics sooner during heating, and also resisted recovery to baseline non-aggressive behaviour during cooling. We further observed hysteresis in groups composed of aggressive individuals, where group behaviour depended strongly on whether the colony had previously been in a calm or agitated state. These results demonstrate that a society's susceptibility to sudden state shifts and their recoverability from them can be driven by the personalities of their constituents.

Social status mediates the fitness costs of infection with canine distemper virus in Serengeti spotted hyenas

The extent to which the fitness costs of infection are mediated by key life-history traits such as age or social status is still unclear. Within populations, individual heterogeneity in the outcome of infection is the result of two successive processes; the degree of contact with the pathogen (exposure) and the immune response to infection. In social mammals, because individuals holding high social status typically interact more frequently with group members, they should be more often in contact with infected individuals than those of low social status. However, when access to resources is determined by social status, individuals with a high social status are often better nourished, have a greater opportunity to allocate resources to immune processes and therefore should have a smaller chance of succumbing to infection than individuals with low social status.We investigated the risk and fitness costs of infection during a virulent epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV) in a social carnivore, the spotted hyena, in the Serengeti National Park. We analysed two decades of detailed life-history data from 625 females and 816 males using a multi-event capture-mark-recapture model that accounts for uncertainty in the assignment of individual infection states.Cubs of mothers with a high social status had a lower probability of CDV infection and were more likely to survive infection than those with low social status. Subadult and adult females with high social status had a higher infection probability than those with low social status. Subadult females and pre-breeder males that had recovered from CDV infection had a lower survival than susceptible ones.Our study disentangles the relative importance of individual exposure and resource allocation to immune processes, demonstrates fitness costs of infection for juveniles, particularly for those with low social status, shows that patterns of infection can be driven by different mechanisms among juveniles and adults and establishes a negative relationship between infection and fitness in a free-ranging mammal. A http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2435.13059/suppinfo is available for this article.

Impact of disease on the survival of three commercially fished species

Recent increases in emergent infectious diseases have raised concerns about the sustainability of some marine species. The complexity and expense of studying diseases in marine systems often dictate that conservation and management decisions are made without quantitative data on population-level impacts of disease. Mark-recapture is a powerful, underutilized, tool for calculating impacts of disease on population size and structure, even in the absence of etiological information. We applied logistic regression models to mark-recapture data to obtain estimates of disease-associated mortality rates in three commercially important marine species: snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in Newfoundland, Canada, that experience sporadic epizootics of bitter crab disease; striped bass (Morone saxatilis) in the Chesapeake Bay, USA, that experience chronic dermal and visceral mycobacteriosis; and American lobster (Homarus americanus) in the Southern New England stock, that experience chronic epizootic shell disease. All three diseases decreased survival of diseased hosts. Survival of diseased adult male crabs was 1% (0.003-0.022, 95% CI) that of uninfected crabs indicating nearly complete mortality of infected crabs in this life stage. Survival of moderately and severely diseased striped bass (which comprised 15% and 11% of the population, respectively) was 84% (70-100%, 95% CI), and 54% (42-68%, 95% CI) that of healthy striped bass. The disease-adjusted yearly natural mortality rate for striped bass was 0.29, nearly double the previously accepted value, which did not include disease. Survival of moderately and severely diseased lobsters was 30% (15-60%, 95% CI) that of healthy lobsters and survival of mildly diseased lobsters was 45% (27-75%, 95% CI) that of healthy lobsters. High disease mortality in ovigerous females may explain the poor recruitment and rapid declines observed in this population. Stock assessments should account for disease-related mortality when resource management options are evaluated.

Critical role of ethics in clinical management and public health response to the West Africa Ebola epidemic

The devastation caused by the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa has brought to the fore a number of important ethical debates about how best to respond to a health crisis. These debates include issues related to prevention and containment, management of the health care workforce, clinical care, and research design, all of which are situated within the overarching moral problem of severe transnational disadvantage, which has very real and specific impacts upon the ability of citizens of EVD-affected countries to respond to a disease outbreak. Ethical issues related to prevention and containment include the appropriateness and scope of quarantine and isolation within and outside affected countries. The possibility of infection in health care workers impelled consideration of whether there is an obligation to provide health services where personal protection equipment is inadequate, alongside the issue of whether the health care workforce should have special access to experimental treatment and care interventions under development. In clinical care, ethical issues include the standards of care owed to people who comply with quarantine and isolation restrictions. Ethical issues in research include appropriate study design related to experimental vaccines and treatment interventions, and the sharing of data and biospecimens between research groups. The compassionate use of experimental drugs intersects both with research ethics and clinical care. The role of developed countries also came under scrutiny, and we concluded that developed countries have an obligation to contribute to the containment of EVD infection by contributing to the strengthening of local health care systems and infrastructure in an effort to provide fair benefits to communities engaged in research, ensuring that affected countries have ready and affordable access to any therapeutic or preventative interventions developed, and supporting affected countries on their way to recovery from the impact of EVD on their social and economic lives.

A time- and cost-effective strategy to sequence mammalian Y Chromosomes: an application to the de novo assembly of gorilla Y

The mammalian Y Chromosome sequence, critical for studying male fertility and dispersal, is enriched in repeats and palindromes, and thus, is the most difficult component of the genome to assemble. Previously, expensive and labor-intensive BAC-based techniques were used to sequence the Y for a handful of mammalian species. Here, we present a much faster and more affordable strategy for sequencing and assembling mammalian Y Chromosomes of sufficient quality for most comparative genomics analyses and for conservation genetics applications. The strategy combines flow sorting, short- and long-read genome and transcriptome sequencing, and droplet digital PCR with novel and existing computational methods. It can be used to reconstruct sex chromosomes in a heterogametic sex of any species. We applied our strategy to produce a draft of the gorilla Y sequence. The resulting assembly allowed us to refine gene content, evaluate copy number of ampliconic gene families, locate species-specific palindromes, examine the repetitive element content, and produce sequence alignments with human and chimpanzee Y Chromosomes. Our results inform the evolution of the hominine (human, chimpanzee, and gorilla) Y Chromosomes. Surprisingly, we found the gorilla Y Chromosome to be similar to the human Y Chromosome, but not to the chimpanzee Y Chromosome. Moreover, we have utilized the assembled gorilla Y Chromosome sequence to design genetic markers for studying the male-specific dispersal of this endangered species.

One Health, Vaccines and Ebola: The Opportunities for Shared Benefits

The 2013 Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa, as of writing, is declining in reported human cases and mortalities. The resulting devastation caused highlights how health systems, in particular in West Africa, and in terms of global pandemic planning, are ill prepared to react to zoonotic pathogens. In this paper we propose One Health as a strategy to prevent zoonotic outbreaks as a shared goal: that human and Great Ape vaccine trials could benefit both species. Only recently have two phase 2/3 Ebola human vaccine trials been started in West Africa. This paper argues for a conceptual change in pandemic preparedness. We first discuss the ethics of One Health. Next, we focus on the current Ebola outbreak and defines its victims. Third, we present the notion of a 'shared benefit' approach, grounded in One Health, and argue for the vaccination of wild apes in order to protect both apes and humans. We believe that a creation of such inter-species immunity is an exemplar of One Health, and that it is worth pursuing as a coextensive public health approach.