COMADRE: a global data base of animal demography

To Prosper, Live Long: Understanding the Sources of Reproductive Skew and Extreme Reproductive Success in Structured Populations

AbstractIn many species, a few individuals produce most of the next generation. How much of this reproductive skew is driven by variation among individuals in fixed traits, how much by external factors, and how much by random chance? And what does it take to have truly exceptional lifetime reproductive output (LRO)? In the past, we and others have partitioned the variance of LRO as a proxy for reproductive skew. Here we explain how to partition LRO skewness itself into contributions from fixed trait variation, four forms of "demographic luck" (birth state, fecundity luck, survival trajectory luck, and growth trajectory luck), and two kinds of "environmental luck" (birth environment and environment trajectory). Each of these is further partitioned into contributions at different ages. We also determine what we can infer about individuals with exceptional LRO. We find that reproductive skew is largely driven by random variation in lifespan, and exceptional LRO generally results from exceptional lifespan. Other kinds of luck frequently bring skewness down rather than increasing it. In populations where fecundity varies greatly with environmental conditions, getting a good year at the right time can be an alternate route to exceptional LRO, so that LRO is less predictive of lifespan.

Life histories are not just fast or slow

Life history strategies, which combine schedules of survival, development, and reproduction, shape how natural selection acts on species' heritable traits and organismal fitness. Comparative analyses have historically ranked life histories along a fast-slow continuum, describing a negative association between time allocation to reproduction and development versus survival. However, higher-quality, more representative data and analyses have revealed that life history variation cannot be fully accounted for by this single continuum. Moreover, studies often do not test predictions from existing theories and instead operate as exploratory exercises. To move forward, we offer three recommendations for future investigations: standardizing life history traits, overcoming taxonomic siloes, and using theory to move from describing to understanding life history variation across the Tree of Life.

The natural history of luck: A synthesis study of structured population models

Chance pervades life. In turn, life histories are described by probabilities (e.g. survival and breeding) and averages across individuals (e.g. mean growth rate and age at maturity). In this study, we explored patterns of luck in lifetime outcomes by analysing structured population models for a wide array of plant and animal species. We calculated four response variables: variance and skewness in both lifespan and lifetime reproductive output (LRO), and partitioned them into contributions from different forms of luck. We examined relationships among response variables and a variety of life history traits. We found that variance in lifespan and variance in LRO were positively correlated across taxa, but that variance and skewness were negatively correlated for both lifespan and LRO. The most important life history trait was longevity, which shaped variance and skew in LRO through its effects on variance in lifespan. We found that luck in survival, growth, and fecundity all contributed to variance in LRO, but skew in LRO was overwhelmingly due to survival luck. Rapidly growing populations have larger variances in LRO and lifespan than shrinking populations. Our results indicate that luck-induced genetic drift may be most severe in recovering populations of species with long mature lifespan and high iteroparity.

Why we cannot always expect life history strategies to directly inform on sensitivity to environmental change

Variation in life history traits in animals and plants can often be structured along major axes of life history strategies. The position of a species along these axes can inform on their sensitivity to environmental change. For example, species with slow life histories are found to be less sensitive in their long-term population responses to environmental change than species with fast life histories. This provides a tantalizing link between sets of traits and population responses to change, contained in a highly generalizable theoretical framework. Life history strategies are assumed to reflect the outcome of life history tradeoffs that, by their very nature, act at the individual level. Examples include the tradeoff between current and future reproductive success, and allocating energy into growth versus reproduction. But the importance of such tradeoffs in structuring population-level responses to environmental change remains understudied. We aim to increase our understanding of the link between individual-level life history tradeoffs and the structuring of life history strategies across species, as well as the underlying links to population responses to environmental change. We find that the classical association between lifehistory strategies and population responses to environmental change breaks down when accounting for individual-level tradeoffs and energy allocation. Therefore, projecting population responses to environmental change should not be inferred based only on a limited set of species traits. We summarize our perspective and a way forward in a conceptual framework.

DEBBIES Dataset to study Life Histories across Ectotherms

Demographic models are used to explore how life history traits structure life history strategies across species. This study presents the DEBBIES dataset that contains estimates of eight life history traits (length at birth, puberty and maximum length, maximum reproduction rate, fraction energy allocated to respiration versus reproduction, von Bertalanffy growth rate, mortality rates) for 185 ectotherm species. The dataset can be used to parameterise dynamic energy budget integral projection models (DEB-IPMs) to calculate key demographic quantities like population growth rate and demographic resilience, but also link to conservation status or biogeographical characteristics. Our technical validation shows a satisfactory agreement between observed and predicted longevity, generation time, age at maturity across all species. Compared to existing datasets, DEBBIES accommodates (i) easy cross-taxonomical comparisons, (ii) many data-deficient species, and (iii) population forecasts to novel conditions because DEB-IPMs include a mechanistic description of the trade-off between growth and reproduction. This dataset has the potential for biologists to unlock general predictions on ectotherm population responses from only a few key life history traits.

Marsupial position on life-history continua and the potential contribution of life-history traits to population growth

Previous studies have suggested that mammal life history varies along the fast-slow continuum and that, in eutherians, this continuum is linked to variation in the potential contribution of survival and reproduction to population growth rate (λ). Fast eutherians mature early, have large litters and short lifespans, and exhibit high potential contribution of age at first reproduction and fertility to λ, while slow eutherians show high potential contribution of survival to λ. However, marsupials have typically been overlooked in comparative tests of mammalian life-history evolution. Here, we tested whether the eutherian life-history pattern extends to marsupials, and show that marsupial life-history trade-offs are organized along two major axes: (i) the reproductive output and dispersion axis, and (ii) the fast-slow continuum, with an additional association between adult survival and body mass. Life-history traits that potentially drive changes in λ are similar in eutherians and marsupials with slow life histories, but differ in fast marsupials; age at first reproduction is the most important trait contributing to λ and fertility contributes little. Marsupials have slower life histories than eutherians, and differences between these clades may derive from their contrasting reproductive modes; marsupials have slower development, growth and metabolism than eutherians of equivalent size.

Cat: Empirical modelling of Felis catus population dynamics in the UK

Domestic cats are popular companion animals, however not all live in human homes and many cats live within shelters or as free-roaming, unowned- feral or stray cats. Cats can transition between these subpopulations, but the influence of this connectivity on overall population dynamics, and the effectiveness of management interventions, remain poorly understood. We developed a UK-focused multistate Matrix Population Model (MPM), combining multiple life history parameters into an integrated model of cat demography and population dynamics. The model characterises cats according to their age, subpopulation and reproductive status, resulting in a 28-state model. We account for density-dependence, seasonality and uncertainty in our modelled projections. Through simulations, we examine the model by testing the effect of different female owned-cat neutering scenarios over a 10-year projection timespan. We also use the model to identify the vital rates to which total population growth is most sensitive. The current model framework demonstrates that increased prevalence of neutering within the owned cat subpopulation influences the population dynamics of all subpopulations. Further simulations find that neutering owned cats younger is sufficient to reduce overall population growth rate, regardless of the overall neutering prevalence. Population growth rate is most influenced by owned cat survival and fecundity. Owned cats, which made up the majority of our modelled population, have the most influence on overall population dynamics, followed by stray, feral and then shelter cats. Due to the importance of owned-cat parameters within the current model framework, we find cat population dynamics are most sensitive to shifts in owned cat husbandry. Our results provide a first evaluation of the demography of the domestic cat population in the UK and provide the first structured population model of its kind, thus contributing to a wider understanding of the importance of modelling connectivity between subpopulations. Through example scenarios we highlight the importance of studying domestic cat populations in their entirety to better understand factors influencing their dynamics and to guide management planning. The model provides a theoretical framework for further development, tailoring to specific geographies and experimental investigation of management interventions.

Management strategy of the naked carp (Gymnocypris przewalskii) in the Qinghai lake using matrix population modeling

Naked carp (Gymnocypris przewalskii) is the only fish species commercially harvested in Qinghai Lake, which is the largest inland saltwater lake in China. Multiple ecological stresses such as long-term overfishing, drying-up of riverine inflows, and decreases in spawning habitat caused the naked carp population to decrease from 320,000 tons before the 1950s to only 3000 tons by the early 2000s. We used matrix projection population modeling to quantitatively simulate the dynamics of the naked carp population from the 1950s to the 2020s. Five versions of the matrix model were developed from the field and laboratory information that represented different population states (high but declining, low abundance, very low abundance, initial recovery, pristine). Equilibrium analysis was applied to density-independent versions of the matrices and population growth rate, age composition, and elasticities were compared among versions. Stochastic, density-dependent version of the most recent decade (recovering) version was used to simulate the time-dependent responses to a range of levels of artificial reproduction (addition of age-1 from hatchery) and of the pristine version to simulate combinations of fishing rate and minimum age of harvest. Results showed the major role of overfishing in the population decline and that the population growth rate was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and the spawning success of early-age adults. Dynamic simulations showed a rapid population response to artificial reproduction when population abundance was low and that if artificial reproduction continues at its current level, then population biomass would reach 75% of its pristine biomass after 50 years. Simulations with the pristine version identified sustainable fishing levels and the importance of protecting the first few ages of maturity. Overall, modeling results showed that artificial reproduction under conditions of no fishing is an effective approach to restoring the naked carp population. Further effectiveness should consider maximizing survival in the months just after release and maintaining genetic and phenotypic diversity. More information on density-dependent growth, survival, and reproduction, as well as on the genetic diversity and growth and migratory behavior (phenotypic variation) of released and native-spawned fish, would help inform management and conservation strategies and practices going forward.

MOSAIC - A Unified Trait Database to Complement Structured Population Models

Despite exponential growth in ecological data availability, broader interoperability amongst datasets is needed to unlock the potential of open access. Our understanding of the interface of demography and functional traits is well-positioned to benefit from such interoperability. Here, we introduce MOSAIC, an open-access trait database that unlocks the demographic potential stored in the COMADRE, COMPADRE, and PADRINO open-access databases. MOSAIC data were digitised and curated through a combination of existing datasets and new trait records sourced from primary literature. In its first release, MOSAIC (v. 1.0.0) includes 14 trait fields for 300 animal and plant species: biomass, height, growth determination, regeneration, sexual dimorphism, mating system, hermaphrodism, sequential hermaphrodism, dispersal capacity, type of dispersal, mode of dispersal, dispersal classes, volancy, and aquatic habitat dependency. MOSAIC includes species-level phylogenies for 1,359 species and population-specific climate data. We identify how database integration can improve our understanding of traits well-quantified in existing repositories and those that are poorly quantified (e.g., growth determination, modularity). MOSAIC highlights emerging challenges associated with standardising databases and demographic measures.

Recent exposure to environmental stochasticity does not determine the demographic resilience of natural populations

Escalating climatic and anthropogenic pressures expose ecosystems worldwide to increasingly stochastic environments. Yet, our ability to forecast the responses of natural populations to this increased environmental stochasticity is impeded by a limited understanding of how exposure to stochastic environments shapes demographic resilience. Here, we test the association between local environmental stochasticity and the resilience attributes (e.g. resistance, recovery) of 2242 natural populations across 369 animal and plant species. Contrary to the assumption that past exposure to frequent environmental shifts confers a greater ability to cope with current and future global change, we illustrate how recent environmental stochasticity regimes from the past 50 years do not predict the inherent resistance or recovery potential of natural populations. Instead, demographic resilience is strongly predicted by the phylogenetic relatedness among species, with survival and developmental investments shaping their responses to environmental stochasticity. Accordingly, our findings suggest that demographic resilience is a consequence of evolutionary processes and/or deep-time environmental regimes, rather than recent-past experiences.

Measuring the shape of mortality across animals and plants: Alternatives to H entropy metrics reveal hidden type IV survivorship curves and associations with parental care at macro-ecological scales

The shape of mortality, or how mortality is spread across an organism's life course, is fundamental to a range of biological processes, with attempts to quantify it rooted in ecology, evolution, and demography. One approach to quantify the distribution of mortality over an organism's life is the use of entropy metrics whose values are interpreted within the classical framework of survivorship curves ranging from type I distributions, with mortality concentrated in late life stages, to type III survivorship curves associated with high early stage mortality. However, entropy metrics were originally developed using restricted taxonomic groups and the behavior of entropy metrics over larger scales of variation may make them unsuitable for wider-ranging contemporary comparative studies. Here, we revisit the classic survivorship framework and, using a combination of simulations and comparative analysis of demography data spanning the animal and plant kingdoms, we show that commonly used entropy metrics cannot distinguish between the most extreme survivorship curves, which in turn can mask important macroecological patterns. We show how using H entropy masks a macroecological pattern of how parental care is associated with type I and type II species and for macroecological studies recommend the use of metrics, such as measures of area under the curve. Using frameworks and metrics that capture the full range of variation of survivorship curves will aid in our understanding of the links between the shape of mortality, population dynamics, and life history traits.

Destabilizing effect of climate change on the persistence of a short-lived primate

Seasonal tropical environments are among those regions that are the most affected by shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes under climate change, with potentially severe consequences for wildlife population persistence. This persistence is ultimately determined by complex demographic responses to multiple climatic drivers, yet these complexities have been little explored in tropical mammals. We use long-term, individual-based demographic data (1994 to 2020) from a short-lived primate in western Madagascar, the gray mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus), to investigate the demographic drivers of population persistence under observed shifts in seasonal temperature and rainfall. While rainfall during the wet season has been declining over the years, dry season temperatures have been increasing, with these trends projected to continue. These environmental changes resulted in lower survival and higher recruitment rates over time for gray mouse lemurs. Although the contrasting changes have prevented the study population from collapsing, the resulting increase in life-history speed has destabilized an otherwise stable population. Population projections under more recent rainfall and temperature levels predict an increase in population fluctuations and a corresponding increase in the extinction risk over the next five decades. Our analyses show that a relatively short-lived mammal with high reproductive output, representing a life history that is expected to closely track changes in its environment, can nonetheless be threatened by climate change.

Adaption, neutrality and life-course diversity

Heterogeneity among individuals in fitness components is what selection acts upon. Evolutionary theories predict that selection in constant environments acts against such heterogeneity. But observations reveal substantial non-genetic and also non-environmental variability in phenotypes. Here, we examine whether there is a relationship between selection pressure and phenotypic variability by analysing structured population models based on data from a large and diverse set of species. Our findings suggest that non-genetic, non-environmental variation is in general neither truly neutral, selected for, nor selected against. We find much variations among species and populations within species, with mean patterns suggesting nearly neutral evolution of life-course variability. Populations that show greater diversity of life courses do not show, in general, increased or decreased population growth rates. Our analysis suggests we are only at the beginning of understanding the evolution and maintenance of non-genetic non-environmental variation.

Anthropogenic impacts on threatened species erode functional diversity in chelonians and crocodilians

The Anthropocene is tightly associated with a drastic loss of species worldwide and the disappearance of their key ecosystem functions. The orders Testudines (turtles and tortoises) and Crocodilia (crocodiles, alligators, and gharials) contain numerous threatened, long-lived species for which the functional diversity and potential erosion by anthropogenic impacts remains unknown. Here, we examine 259 (69%) of the existing 375 species of Testudines and Crocodilia, quantifying their life history strategies (i.e., trade-offs in survival, development, and reproduction) from open-access data on demography, ancestry, and threats. We find that the loss of functional diversity in simulated extinction scenarios of threatened species is greater than expected by chance. Moreover, the effects of unsustainable local consumption, diseases, and pollution are associated with life history strategies. In contrast, climate change, habitat disturbance, and global trade affect species independent of their life history strategy. Importantly, the loss of functional diversity for threatened species by habitat degradation is twice that for all other threats. Our findings highlight the importance of conservation programmes focused on preserving the functional diversity of life history strategies jointly with the phylogenetic representativity of these highly threatened groups.

Spatial consistency in drivers of population dynamics of a declining migratory bird

Many migratory species are in decline across their geographical ranges. Single-population studies can provide important insights into drivers at a local scale, but effective conservation requires multi-population perspectives. This is challenging because relevant data are often hard to consolidate, and state-of-the-art analytical tools are typically tailored to specific datasets. We capitalized on a recent data harmonization initiative (SPI-Birds) and linked it to a generalized modelling framework to identify the demographic and environmental drivers of large-scale population decline in migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) breeding across Britain. We implemented a generalized integrated population model (IPM) to estimate age-specific vital rates, including their dependency on environmental conditions, and total and breeding population size of pied flycatchers using long-term (34-64 years) monitoring data from seven locations representative of the British breeding range. We then quantified the relative contributions of different vital rates and population structure to changes in short- and long-term population growth rate using transient life table response experiments (LTREs). Substantial covariation in population sizes across breeding locations suggested that change was the result of large-scale drivers. This was supported by LTRE analyses, which attributed past changes in short-term population growth rates and long-term population trends primarily to variation in annual survival and dispersal dynamics, which largely act during migration and/or nonbreeding season. Contributions of variation in local reproductive parameters were small in comparison, despite sensitivity to local temperature and rainfall within the breeding period. We show that both short- and long-term population changes of British breeding pied flycatchers are likely linked to factors acting during migration and in nonbreeding areas, where future research should be prioritized. We illustrate the potential of multi-population analyses for informing management at (inter)national scales and highlight the importance of data standardization, generalized and accessible analytical tools, and reproducible workflows to achieve them.

The Capacity of Freshwater Ecosystems to Recover from Exceedences of Aquatic Life Criteria

In the United States, national chemical water quality criteria for the protection of aquatic life assume that aquatic ecosystems have sufficient resiliency to recover from criteria exceedences occurring up to once every 3 years. This resiliency assumption was critically reviewed through two approaches: (1) synthesis of case studies, and (2) population modeling. The population modeling examined differences in recovery of species with widely different life histories. One invertebrate (Hyalella azteca) and four fish species were modeled (fathead minnow, brook trout, lake trout, and shortnose sturgeon) with various disturbance magnitudes and intervals. The synthesis of ecosystem case studies showed generally faster recoveries for insect communities rather than fish, and recoveries from pulse (acute) disturbances were often faster than recoveries from press (chronic) disturbances. When the recovery dataset excluded severe disturbances that seemed unrepresentative of common facility discharge upsets that might cause criteria exceedences, the median recovery time was 1 year, 81% of the cases were considered recovered within 3 years, and 95% were considered recovered within 10 years. The modeling projected that short-lived fish species with high recovery times could thrive despite enduring 50% mortality disturbances every other year. However, long-lived fish species had longer recovery times and declined under the one disturbance every 3 years scenario. Overall, the analyses did not refute the long-standing judgements that 3 years is generally sufficient for recovery from nonrepetitive, moderate intensity disturbances of a magnitude up to 2× the chronic criteria in waters without other pollution sources or stresses. However, these constraints may not always be met and if long-lived fish species are a concern, longer return intervals such as 5-10 years could be indicated. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:2887-2910. Published 2022. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Predation thresholds for reintroduction of native avifauna following suppression of invasive Brown Treesnakes on Guam

The brown treesnake (BTS) (Boiga irregularis) invasion on Guåhan (in English, Guam) led to the extirpation of nearly all native forest birds. In recent years, methods have been developed to reduce BTS abundance on a landscape scale. To help assess the prospects for the successful reintroduction of native birds to Guåhan following BTS suppression, we modeled bird population persistence based on their life history characteristics and relative sensitivity to BTS predation. We constructed individual-based models and simulated BTS predation in hypothetical founding populations for each of seven candidate bird species. We represented BTS predation risk in two steps: risk of being encountered and risk of mortality if encountered. We link encounter risk from the bird's perspective to snake contact rates at camera traps with live animal lures, the most direct practical means of estimating BTS predation risk. Our simulations support the well-documented fact that Guåhan's birds cannot persist with an uncontrolled population of BTS but do indicate that bird persistence in Guåhan's forests is possible with suppression short of total eradication. We estimate threshold BTS contact rates would need to be below 0.0002-0.0006 snake contacts per bird per night for these birds to persist on the landscape, which translates to an annual encounter probability of 0.07-0.20. We simulated the effects of snake-proof nest boxes for Sihek (Todiramphus cinnamominus) and Såli (Aplonis opaca), but the benefits were small relative to the overall variation in contact rate thresholds among species. This variation among focal bird species in sustainable predation levels can be used to prioritize species for reintroduction in a BTS-suppressed landscape, but variation among these species is narrow relative to the required reduction from current BTS levels, which may be four orders of magnitude higher (>0.18). Our modeling indicates that the required predation thresholds may need to be lower than have yet been demonstrated with current BTS management. Our predation threshold metric provides an important management tool to help estimate target BTS suppression levels that can be used to determine when bird reintroduction campaigns might begin and serves as a model for other systems to match predator control with reintroduction efforts.

Life history adaptations to fluctuating environments: Combined effects of demographic buffering and lability

Demographic buffering and lability have been identified as adaptive strategies to optimise fitness in a fluctuating environment. These are not mutually exclusive, however, we lack efficient methods to measure their relative importance for a given life history. Here, we decompose the stochastic growth rate (fitness) into components arising from nonlinear responses and variance-covariance of demographic parameters to an environmental driver, which allows studying joint effects of buffering and lability. We apply this decomposition for 154 animal matrix population models under different scenarios to explore how these main fitness components vary across life histories. Faster-living species appear more responsive to environmental fluctuations, either positively or negatively. They have the highest potential for strong adaptive demographic lability, while demographic buffering is a main strategy in slow-living species. Our decomposition provides a comprehensive framework to study how organisms adapt to variability through buffering and lability, and to predict species responses to climate change.

Individual stochasticity in the life history strategies of animals and plants

The life histories of organisms are expressed as rates of development, reproduction, and survival. However, individuals may experience differential outcomes for the same set of rates. Such individual stochasticity generates variance around familiar mean measures of life history traits, such as life expectancy and the reproductive number R0. By writing life cycles as Markov chains, we calculate variance and other indices of variability for longevity, lifetime reproductive output (LRO), age at offspring production, and age at maturity for 83 animal and 332 plant populations from the Comadre and Compadre matrix databases. We find that the magnitude within and variability between populations in variance indices in LRO, especially, are surprisingly high. We furthermore use principal components analysis to assess how the inclusion of variance indices of different demographic outcomes affects life history constraints. We find that these indices, to a similar or greater degree than the mean, explain the variation in life history strategies among plants and animals.

Reproductive dispersion and damping time scale with life-history speed

Iteroparous species may reproduce at many different ages, resulting in a reproductive dispersion that affects the damping of population perturbations, and varies among life histories. Since generation time ( T c $$ {T}_c $$ ) is known to capture aspects of life-history variation, such as life-history speed, does T c $$ {T}_c $$ also determine reproductive dispersion ( S $$ S $$ ) or damping time ( τ $$ \tau $$ )? Using phylogenetically corrected analyses on 633 species of animals and plants, we find, firstly, that reproductive dispersion S $$ S $$ scales isometrically with T c $$ {T}_c $$ . Secondly, and unexpectedly, we find that the damping time ( τ $$ \tau $$ ) does not scale isometrically with generation time, but instead changes only as T c b $$ {T}_c^b $$ with b < 1 $$ b<1 $$ (also, there is a similar scaling with S $$ S $$ ). This non-isometric scaling implies a novel demographic contrast: increasing generation times correspond to a proportional increase in reproductive dispersion, but only to a slower increase in the damping time. Thus, damping times are partly decoupled from the slow-fast continuum, and are determined by factors other than allometric constraints.

A sex skew in life-history research: the problem of missing males

Life-history strategies are diverse. While understanding this diversity is a fundamental aim of evolutionary biology and biodemography, life-history data for some traits-in particular, age-dependent reproductive investment-are biased towards females. While other authors have highlighted this sex skew, the general scale of this bias has not been quantified and its impact on our understanding of evolutionary ecology has not been discussed. This review summarizes why the sexes can evolve different life-history strategies. The scale of the sex skew is then discussed and its magnitude compared between taxonomic groups, laboratory and field studies, and through time. We discuss the consequences of this sex skew for evolutionary and ecological research. In particular, this sex bias means that we cannot test some core evolutionary theory. Additionally, this skew could obscure or drive trends in data and hinder our ability to develop effective conservation strategies. We finally highlight some ways through which this skew could be addressed to help us better understand broad patterns in life-history strategies.

Life-history predicts global population responses to the weather in terrestrial mammals

With the looming threat of abrupt ecological disruption due to a changing climate, predicting which species are most vulnerable to environmental change is critical. The life-history of a species is an evolved response to its environmental context, and therefore a promising candidate for explaining differences in climate-change responses. However, we need broad empirical assessments from across the world's ecosystems to explore the link between life history and climate-change responses. Here, we use long-term abundance records from 157 species of terrestrial mammals and a two-step Bayesian meta-regression framework to investigate the link between annual weather anomalies, population growth rates, and species-level life history. Overall, we found no directional effect of temperature or precipitation anomalies or variance on annual population growth rates. Furthermore, population responses to weather anomalies were not predicted by phylogenetic covariance, and instead there was more variability in weather responses for populations within a species. Crucially, however, long-lived mammals with smaller litter sizes had smaller absolute population responses to weather anomalies compared with their shorter living counterparts with larger litters. These results highlight the role of species-level life history in driving responses to the environment.

Life history mediates the trade-offs among different components of demographic resilience

Accelerating rates of biodiversity loss underscore the need to understand how species achieve resilience-the ability to resist and recover from a/biotic disturbances. Yet, the factors determining the resilience of species remain poorly understood, due to disagreements on its definition and the lack of large-scale analyses. Here, we investigate how the life history of 910 natural populations of animals and plants predicts their intrinsic ability to be resilient. We show that demographic resilience can be achieved through different combinations of compensation, resistance and recovery after a disturbance. We demonstrate that these resilience components are highly correlated with life history traits related to the species' pace of life and reproductive strategy. Species with longer generation times require longer recovery times post-disturbance, whilst those with greater reproductive capacity have greater resistance and compensation. Our findings highlight the key role of life history traits to understand species resilience, improving our ability to predict how natural populations cope with disturbance regimes.

Demographic and life history traits explain patterns in species vulnerability to extinction

As ecosystems face disruption of community dynamics and habitat loss, the idea of determining ahead of time which species can become extinct is an important subject in conservation biology. A species’ vulnerability to extinction is dependent upon both intrinsic (life-history strategies, genetics) and extrinsic factors (environment, anthropogenic threats). Studies linking intrinsic traits to extinction risk have shown variable results, and to our knowledge, there has not been a systematic analysis looking at how demographic patterns in stage-specific survival and reproductive rates correlate to extinction risk. We used matrix projection models from the COMPADRE and COMADRE matrix databases and IUCN Red List status as our proxy of extinction risk to investigate if some demographic patterns are more vulnerable to extinction than others. We obtained data on demographic rates, phylogeny, and IUCN status for 159 species of herbaceous plants, trees, mammals, and birds. We calculated 14 demographic metrics related to different aspects of life history and elasticity values and analyzed whether they differ based on IUCN categories using conditional random forest analysis and phylogenetic generalized least square regressions. We mapped all species within the database, both with IUCN assessment and without, and overlaid them with biodiversity hotspots to investigate if there is bias within the assessed species and how many of the non-assessed species could use the demographic information recorded in COMPADRE and COMADRE for future IUCN assessments. We found that herbaceous perennials are more vulnerable when they mature early and have high juvenile survival rates; birds are more vulnerable with high progressive growth and reproduction; mammals are more vulnerable when they have longer generation times. These patterns may be used to assess relative vulnerability across species when lacking abundance or trend data.

The Danaid Theory of Aging

The classical evolutionary theories of aging suggest that aging evolves due to insufficient selective pressure against it. In these theories, declining selection pressure with age leads to aging through genes or resource allocations, implying that aging could potentially be stalled were genes, resource allocation, or selection pressure somewhat different. While these classical evolutionary theories are undeniably part of a description of the evolution of aging, they do not explain the diversity of aging patterns, and they do not constitute the only possible evolutionary explanation. Without denying selection pressure a role in the evolution of aging, we argue that the origin and diversity of aging should also be sought in the nature and evolution of organisms that are, from their very physiological make up, unmaintainable. Drawing on advances in developmental biology, genetics, biochemistry, and complex systems theory since the classical theories emerged, we propose a fresh evolutionary-mechanistic theory of aging, the Danaid theory. We argue that, in complex forms of life like humans, various restrictions on maintenance and repair may be inherent, and we show how such restrictions are laid out during development. We further argue that there is systematic variation in these constraints across taxa, and that this is a crucial factor determining variation in aging and lifespan across the tree of life. Accordingly, the core challenge for the field going forward is to map and understand the mosaic of constraints, trade-offs, chance events, and selective pressures that shape aging in diverse ways across diverse taxa.

Optimal immune specificity at the intersection of host life history and parasite epidemiology

Hosts diverge widely in how, and how well, they defend themselves against infection and immunopathology. Why are hosts so heterogeneous? Both epidemiology and life history are commonly hypothesized to influence host immune strategy, but the relationship between immune strategy and each factor has commonly been investigated in isolation. Here, we show that interactions between life history and epidemiology are crucial for determining optimal immune specificity and sensitivity. We propose a demographically-structured population dynamics model, in which we explore sensitivity and specificity of immune responses when epidemiological risks vary with age. We find that variation in life history traits associated with both reproduction and longevity alters optimal immune strategies-but the magnitude and sometimes even direction of these effects depends on how epidemiological risks vary across life. An especially compelling example that explains previously-puzzling empirical observations is that depending on whether infection risk declines or rises at reproductive maturity, later reproductive maturity can select for either greater or lower immune specificity, potentially illustrating why studies of lifespan and immune variation across taxa have been inconclusive. Thus, the sign of selection on the life history-immune specificity relationship can be reversed in different epidemiological contexts. Drawing on published life history data from a variety of chordate taxa, we generate testable predictions for this facet of the optimal immune strategy. Our results shed light on the causes of the heterogeneity found in immune defenses both within and among species and the ultimate variability of the relationship between life history and immune specificity.

Demographic Consequences of Phenological Shifts in Response to Climate Change

When a phenological shift affects a demographic vital rate such as survival or reproduction, the altered vital rate may or may not have population-level consequences. We review the evidence that climate change affects populations by shifting species’ phenologies, emphasizing the importance of demographic life-history theory. We find many examples of phenological shifts having both positive and negative consequences for vital rates. Yet, few studies link phenological shifts to changes in vital rates known to drive population dynamics, especially in plants. When this link is made, results are largely consistent with life-history theory: Phenological shifts have population-level consequences when they affect survival in longer-lived organisms and reproduction in shorter-lived organisms. However, there are just as many cases in which demographic mechanisms buffer population growth from phenologically induced changes in vital rates. We provide recommendations for future research aiming to understand the complex relationships among climate, phenology, and demography, which will help to elucidate the extent to which phenological shifts actually alter population persistence.

Integrating advances in population and evolutionary ecology with conservation strategy through long-term studies of red-billed choughs

Conceptual and methodological advances in population and evolutionary ecology are often pursued with the ambition that they will help identify demographic, ecological and genetic constraints on population growth rate (λ), and ultimately facilitate evidence-based conservation. However, such advances are often decoupled from conservation practice, impeding translation of scientific understanding into effective conservation and of conservation-motivated research into wider conceptual understanding. We summarise key outcomes from long-term studies of a red-billed chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax population of conservation concern, where we proactively aimed to achieve the dual and interacting objectives of advancing population and evolutionary ecology and advancing effective conservation. Estimation of means, variances and covariances in key vital rates from individual-based demographic data identified temporal and spatial variation in subadult survival as key constraints on λ, and simultaneously provided new insights into how vital rates can vary as functions of demographic structure, natal conditions and parental life history. Targeted analyses showed that first-year survival increased with prey abundance, implying that food limitation may constrain λ. First-year survival then decreased dramatically, threatening population viability and prompting emergency supplementary feeding interventions. Detailed evaluations suggested that the interventions successfully increased first-year survival in some years and additionally increased adult survival and successful reproduction, thereby feeding back to inform intervention refinements and understanding of complex ecological constraints on λ. Genetic analyses revealed novel evidence of expression of a lethal recessive allele, and demonstrated how critically small effective population size can arise, thereby increasing inbreeding and loss of genetic variation. Population viability analyses parameterised with all available demographic and genetic data showed how ecological and genetic constraints can interact to limit population viability, and identified ecological management as of primacy over genetic management to ensure short-term persistence of the focal population. This case study demonstrates a full iteration through the sequence of primary science, evidence-based intervention, quantitative evaluation and feedback that is advocated in conservation science but still infrequently achieved. It thereby illustrates how pure science advances informed conservation actions to ensure the (short-term) stability of the target population, and how conservation-motivated analyses fed back to advance fundamental understanding of population processes.

Future Representation of Species’ Climatic Niches in Protected Areas: A Case Study With Austrian Endemics

Climate driven species’ range shifts may interfere with existing protected area (PA) networks, resulting in a mismatch between places where species are currently protected and places where they can thrive in the future. Here, we assess the climate-smartness of the Austrian PA network by focusing on endemic species’ climatic niches and their future representation within PAs. We calculated endemic species’ climatic niches and climate space available in PAs within their dispersal reach under current and future climates, with the latter represented by three climate change scenarios and three time-steps (2030, 2050, and 2080). Niches were derived from the area of occupancy of species and the extent of PAs, respectively, and calculated as bivariate density kernels on gradients of mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. We then computed climatic representation of species’ niches in PAs as the proportion of the species’ kernel covered by the PA kernel. We found that under both a medium (RCP 4.5) and severe (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario, representation of endemic species’ climatic niches by PAs will decrease to a sixth for animals and to a third for plants, on average, toward the end of the century. Twenty to thirty percent of Austrian endemic species will then have no representation of their climatic niches in PAs anymore. Species with larger geographical and wider elevational ranges will lose less climatic niche representation. The declining representation of climatic niches in PAs implies that, even if PAs may secure the persistence of a part of these endemics, only a small portion of intraspecific diversity of many species may be represented in PAs in the future. We discuss our findings in the context of the varied elevational gradients found in Austria and suggest that the most promising strategies for safeguarding endemic species’ evolutionary potential are to limit the magnitude of climate change and to reduce other pressures that additionally threaten their survival.

Evolution, Chance, and Aging

Aging has provided fruitful challenges for evolutionary theory, and evolutionary theory has deepened our understanding of aging. A great deal of genetic and molecular data now exists concerning mortality regulation and there is a growing body of knowledge concerning the life histories of diverse species. Assimilating all relevant data into a framework for the evolution of aging promises to significantly advance the field. We propose extensions of some key concepts to provide greater precision when applying these concepts to age-structured contexts. Secondary or byproduct effects of mutations are proposed as an important factor affecting survival patterns, including effects that may operate in small populations subject to genetic drift, widening the possibilities for mutation accumulation and pleiotropy. Molecular and genetic studies have indicated a diverse array of mechanisms that can modify aging and mortality rates, while transcriptome data indicate a high level of tissue and species specificity for genes affected by aging. The diversity of mechanisms and gene effects that can contribute to the pattern of aging in different organisms may mirror the complex evolutionary processes behind aging.

Four key challenges in the open-data revolution

In Focus: Culina, A., Adriaensen, F., Bailey, L. D., et al. (2021) Connecting the data landscape of long-term ecological studies: The SPI-Birds data hub. Journal of Animal Ecology, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13388. Long-term, individual-based datasets have been at the core of many key discoveries in ecology, and calls for the collection, curation and release of these kinds of ecological data are contributing to a flourishing open-data revolution in ecology. Birds, in particular, have been the focus of international research for decades, resulting in a number of uniquely long-term studies, but accessing these datasets has been historically challenging. Culina et al. (2021) introduce an online repository of individual-level, long-term bird records with ancillary data (e.g. genetics), which will enable key ecological questions to be answered on a global scale. As well as these opportunities, however, we argue that the ongoing open-data revolution comes with four key challenges relating to the (1) harmonisation of, (2) biases in, (3) expertise in and (4) communication of, open ecological data. Here, we discuss these challenges and how key efforts such as those by Culina et al. are using FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reproducible) principles to overcome them. The open-data revolution will undoubtedly reshape our understanding of ecology, but with it the ecological community has a responsibility to ensure this revolution is ethical and effective.

Connecting the data landscape of long-term ecological studies: The SPI-Birds data hub

The integration and synthesis of the data in different areas of science is drastically slowed and hindered by a lack of standards and networking programmes. Long-term studies of individually marked animals are not an exception. These studies are especially important as instrumental for understanding evolutionary and ecological processes in the wild. Furthermore, their number and global distribution provides a unique opportunity to assess the generality of patterns and to address broad-scale global issues (e.g. climate change). To solve data integration issues and enable a new scale of ecological and evolutionary research based on long-term studies of birds, we have created the SPI-Birds Network and Database (www.spibirds.org)-a large-scale initiative that connects data from, and researchers working on, studies of wild populations of individually recognizable (usually ringed) birds. Within year and a half since the establishment, SPI-Birds has recruited over 120 members, and currently hosts data on almost 1.5 million individual birds collected in 80 populations over 2,000 cumulative years, and counting. SPI-Birds acts as a data hub and a catalogue of studied populations. It prevents data loss, secures easy data finding, use and integration and thus facilitates collaboration and synthesis. We provide community-derived data and meta-data standards and improve data integrity guided by the principles of Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR), and aligned with the existing metadata languages (e.g. ecological meta-data language). The encouraging community involvement stems from SPI-Bird's decentralized approach: research groups retain full control over data use and their way of data management, while SPI-Birds creates tailored pipelines to convert each unique data format into a standard format. We outline the lessons learned, so that other communities (e.g. those working on other taxa) can adapt our successful model. Creating community-specific hubs (such as ours, COMADRE for animal demography, etc.) will aid much-needed large-scale ecological data integration.

Bridging gaps in demographic analysis with phylogenetic imputation

Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential.

Cross-lags and the unbiased estimation of life-history and demographic parameters

Biological processes exhibit complex temporal dependencies due to the sequential nature of allocation decisions in organisms' life cycles, feedback loops and two‐way causality. Consequently, longitudinal data often contain cross‐lags: the predictor variable depends on the response variable of the previous time step. Although statisticians have warned that regression models that ignore such covariate endogeneity in time series are likely to be inappropriate, this has received relatively little attention in biology. Furthermore, the resulting degree of estimation bias remains largely unexplored.

We use a graphical model and numerical simulations to understand why and how regression models that ignore cross‐lags can be biased, and how this bias depends on the length and number of time series. Ecological and evolutionary examples are provided to illustrate that cross‐lags may be more common than is typically appreciated and that they occur in functionally different ways.

We show that routinely used regression models that ignore cross‐lags are asymptotically unbiased. However, this offers little relief, as for most realistically feasible lengths of time‐series conventional methods are biased. Furthermore, collecting time series on multiple subjects—such as populations, groups or individuals—does not help to overcome this bias when the analysis focusses on within‐subject patterns (often the pattern of interest). Simulations, a literature search and a real‐world empirical example together suggest that approaches that ignore cross‐lags are likely biased in the direction opposite to the sign of the cross‐lag (e.g. towards detecting density dependence of vital rates and against detecting life‐history trade‐offs and benefits of group living). Next, we show that multivariate (e.g. structural equation) models can dynamically account for cross‐lags, and simultaneously address additional bias induced by measurement error, but only if the analysis considers multiple time series.

We provide guidance on how to identify a cross‐lag and subsequently specify it in a multivariate model, which can be far from trivial. Our tutorials with data and R code of the worked examples provide step‐by‐step instructions on how to perform such analyses.

Our study offers insights into situations in which cross‐lags can bias analysis of ecological and evolutionary time series and suggests that adopting dynamical models can be important, as this directly affects our understanding of population regulation, the evolution of life histories and cooperation, and possibly many other topics. Determining how strong estimation bias due to ignoring covariate endogeneity has been in the ecological literature requires further study, also because it may interact with other sources of bias.

Senescence: why and where selection gradients might not decline with age

Patterns of ageing across the tree of life are much more diverse than previously thought. Yet, we still do not adequately understand how, why and where across the tree of life a particular pattern of ageing will evolve. An ability to predict ageing patterns requires a firmer understanding of how and why different ecological and evolutionary factors alter the sensitivity of fitness to age-related changes in mortality and reproduction. From this understanding, we can ask why and where selection gradients might not decline with age. Here, we begin by summarizing the recent breadth of literature that is unearthing, empirically and theoretically, the mechanisms that drive variation in patters of senescence. We focus on the relevance of two key parameters, population structure and reproductive value, as key to understanding selection gradients, and therefore senescence. We discuss how growth form, individual trade-offs, stage structure and social interactions may all facilitate differing distributions of these two key parameters than those predicted by classical theory. We argue that these four key aspects can help us understand why patterns of negligible and negative senescence can actually be explained under the same evolutionary framework as classical senescence.

The importance of considering age when quantifying wild animals' welfare

Wild animals experience different challenges and opportunities as they mature, and this variety of experiences can lead to different levels of welfare characterizing the day-to-day lives of individuals of different ages. At the same time, most wild animals who are born do not survive to adulthood. Individuals who die as juveniles do not simply experience a homogeneous fraction of the lifetimes of older members of their species; rather, their truncated lives may be characterized by very different levels of welfare. Here, I propose the concept of welfare expectancy as a framework for quantifying wild animal welfare at a population level, given individual-level data on average welfare with respect to age. This concept fits conveniently alongside methods of analysis already used in population ecology, such as demographic sensitivity analysis, and is applicable to evaluating the welfare consequences of human interventions and natural pressures that disproportionately affect individuals of different ages. In order to understand better and improve the state of wild animal welfare, more attention should be directed towards young animals and the particular challenges they face.

Universal rules of life: metabolic rates, biological times and the equal fitness paradigm

Here we review and extend the equal fitness paradigm (EFP) as an important step in developing and testing a synthetic theory of ecology and evolution based on energy and metabolism. The EFP states that all organisms are equally fit at steady state, because they allocate the same quantity of energy, ~ 22.4 kJ/g/generation to the production of offspring. On the one hand, the EFP may seem tautological, because equal fitness is necessary for the origin and persistence of biodiversity. On the other hand, the EFP reflects universal laws of life: how biological metabolism - the uptake, transformation and allocation of energy - links ecological and evolutionary patterns and processes across levels of organisation from: (1) structure and function of individual organisms, (2) life history and dynamics of populations, and (3) interactions and coevolution of species in ecosystems. The physics and biology of metabolism have facilitated the evolution of millions of species with idiosyncratic anatomy, physiology, behaviour and ecology but also with many shared traits and tradeoffs that reflect the single origin and universal rules of life.

The myriad of complex demographic responses of terrestrial mammals to climate change and gaps of knowledge: A global analysis

Approximately 25% of mammals are currently threatened with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change. Species persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction), and hence, population dynamics. Thus, to quantify which species and regions on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how different demographic rates respond to climate is urgently needed. Here, we perform a systematic review of literature on demographic responses to climate, focusing on terrestrial mammals, for which extensive demographic data are available. To assess the full spectrum of responses, we synthesize information from studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We find only 106 such studies, corresponding to 87 mammal species. These 87 species constitute <1% of all terrestrial mammals. Our synthesis reveals a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognized as most vulnerable to climate change. Surprisingly, for most mammals and regions sensitive to climate change, holistic demographic responses to climate remain unknown. At the same time, we reveal that filling this knowledge gap is critical as the effects of climate change will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others, often depending on the specific environmental context, complicating simple projections of population fates. Assessments of population viability under climate change are in critical need to gather data that account for multiple demographic responses, and coordinated actions to assess demography holistically should be prioritized for mammals and other taxa.

Differentiated Social Relationships and the Pace-of-Life-History

When selection is imposed by both social and ecological environments, the costs and benefits of social relationships can depend on life-history strategy. We argue that the formation and maintenance of differentiated social relationships will prevail in species and individuals with slow life histories. Social behaviours that benefit survival can promote slower life histories. Meanwhile, longer lifespan promotes the development of strong and stable social bonds by allowing fitness payoffs to be postponed. Differentiated social behaviours should be favoured for fast life histories only when they promote the rate of reproduction. Finally, associations between life-history strategies and other traits (e.g., personality) provide a mechanism to drive inter-individual variation in social relationships, making life-history important for sociality across taxonomic scales.