An Arctic predator-prey system in flux: climate change impacts on coastal space use by polar bears and ringed seals

Spatial match-mismatch between predators and prey under climate change

Climate change is driving a rapid redistribution of life on Earth. Variability in the rates, magnitudes and directions of species' shifts can alter spatial overlap between predators and prey, with the potential to decouple trophic interactions. Although phenological mismatches between predator requirements and prey availability under climate change are well-established, 'spatial match-mismatch' dynamics remain poorly understood. We synthesize global evidence for climate-driven changes in spatial predator-prey overlap resulting from species redistribution across marine and terrestrial domains. We show that spatial mismatches can have vastly different outcomes for predator populations depending on their diet specialization and role within the wider ecosystem. We illustrate ecosystem-level consequences of climate-driven changes in spatial predator-prey overlap, from restructuring food webs to altering socio-ecological interactions. It remains unclear how predator-prey overlap at the landscape scale relates to prey encounter and consumption rates at local scales, or how the spatial reorganization of food webs affects ecosystem function. We identify key research directions necessary to resolve the scale of ecological impacts caused by species redistribution under climate change.

Properties of vertebrate predator-prey networks in the high Arctic

Predation is an important ecological process that can significantly impact the maintenance of ecosystem services. In arctic environments, the relative ecological importance of predation is thought to be increasing due to climate change, partly because of increased productivity with rising temperatures. Therefore, understanding predator-prey interactions in arctic ecosystems is vital for the sustainable management of these northern regions. Network theory provides a framework for quantifying the structures of ecological interactions. In this study, we use dietary observations on mammalian and avian predators in a high arctic region, including isolated peninsulas on Ellesmere Island and north Greenland, to construct bipartite trophic networks. We quantify the complexity, specialization, and nested as well as modular structures of these networks and also determine if these properties varied among the peninsulas. Mammal prey remains were the dominant diet item for all predators, but there was spatial variation in diet composition among peninsulas. The predator-prey networks were less complex, had more specialized interactions, and were more nested and more modular than random expectations. However, the networks displayed only moderate levels of modularity. Predator species had less specialized interactions with prey than prey had with predators. All network properties differed among the peninsulas, which highlights that ecosystems often show complex responses to environmental characteristics. We suggest that gaining knowledge about spatial variation in the characteristics of predator-prey interactions can enhance our ability to manage ecosystems exposed to environmental perturbations, particularly in high arctic environments subject to rapid environmental change.

Long-term assessment of relationships between changing environmental conditions and the physiology of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Climate change is influencing polar bear (Ursus maritimus) habitat, diet, and behavior but the effects of these changes on their physiology is not well understood. Blood-based biomarkers are used to assess the physiologic health of individuals but their usefulness for evaluating population health, especially as it relates to changing environmental conditions, has rarely been explored. We describe links between environmental conditions and physiologic functions of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears using data from blood samples collected from 1984 to 2018, a period marked by extensive environmental change. We evaluated associations between 13 physiologic biomarkers and circumpolar (Arctic oscillation index) and regional (wind patterns and ice-free days) environmental metrics and seasonal and demographic co-variates (age, sex, season, and year) known to affect polar bear ecology. We observed signs of dysregulation of water balance in polar bears following years with a lower annual Arctic oscillation index. In addition, liver enzyme values increased over time, which is suggestive of potential hepatocyte damage as the Arctic has warmed. Biomarkers of immune function increased with regional-scale wind patterns and the number of ice-free days over the Beaufort Sea continental shelf and were lower in years with a lower winter Arctic oscillation index, suggesting an increased allocation of energetic resources for immune processes under these conditions. We propose that the variation in polar bear immune and metabolic function is likely indicative of physiologic plasticity, a response that allows polar bears to remain in homeostasis even as they experience changes in nutrition and habitat in response to changing environments.

A Review of Circumpolar Arctic Marine Mammal Health-A Call to Action in a Time of Rapid Environmental Change

The impacts of climate change on the health of marine mammals are increasingly being recognised. Given the rapid rate of environmental change in the Arctic, the potential ramifications on the health of marine mammals in this region are a particular concern. There are eleven endemic Arctic marine mammal species (AMMs) comprising three cetaceans, seven pinnipeds, and the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). All of these species are dependent on sea ice for survival, particularly those requiring ice for breeding. As air and water temperatures increase, additional species previously non-resident in Arctic waters are extending their ranges northward, leading to greater species overlaps and a concomitant increased risk of disease transmission. In this study, we review the literature documenting disease presence in Arctic marine mammals to understand the current causes of morbidity and mortality in these species and forecast future disease issues. Our review highlights potential pathogen occurrence in a changing Arctic environment, discussing surveillance methods for 35 specific pathogens, identifying risk factors associated with these diseases, as well as making recommendations for future monitoring for emerging pathogens. Several of the pathogens discussed have the potential to cause unusual mortality events in AMMs. Brucella, morbillivirus, influenza A virus, and Toxoplasma gondii are all of concern, particularly with the relative naivety of the immune systems of endemic Arctic species. There is a clear need for increased surveillance to understand baseline disease levels and address the gravity of the predicted impacts of climate change on marine mammal species.

Diet energy density estimated from isotopes in predator hair associated with survival, habitat, and population dynamics

Sea ice loss is fundamentally altering the Arctic marine environment. Yet there is a paucity of data on the adaptability of food webs to ecosystem change, including predator-prey interactions. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are an important subsistence resource for Indigenous people and an apex predator that relies entirely on the under-ice food web to meet its energy needs. In this study, we assessed whether polar bears maintained dietary energy density by prey switching in response to spatiotemporal variation in prey availability. We compared the macronutrient composition of diets inferred from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes in polar bear guard hair (primarily representing summer/fall diet) during periods when bears had low and high survival (2004-2016), between bears that summered on land versus pack ice, and between bears occupying different regions of the Alaskan and Canadian Beaufort Sea. Polar bears consumed diets with lower energy density during periods of low survival, suggesting that concurrent increased dietary proportions of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) did not offset reduced proportions of ringed seals (Pusa hispida). Diets with the lowest energy density and proportions from ringed seal blubber were consumed by bears in the western Beaufort Sea (Alaska) during a period when polar bear abundance declined. Intake required to meet energy requirements of an average free-ranging adult female polar bear was 2.1 kg/day on diets consumed during years with high survival but rose to 3.0 kg/day when survival was low. Although bears that summered onshore in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea had higher-fat diets than bears that summered on the pack ice, access to the remains of subsistence-harvested bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) contributed little to improving diet energy density. Because most bears in this region remain with the sea ice year round, prey switching and consumption of whale carcasses onshore appear insufficient to augment diets when availability of their primary prey, ringed seals, is reduced. Our results show that a strong predator-prey relationship between polar bears and ringed seals continues in the Beaufort Sea. The method of estimating dietary blubber using predator hair, demonstrated here, provides a new metric to monitor predator-prey relationships that affect individual health and population demographics.

No accumulation of microplastics detected in western Canadian ringed seals (Pusa hispida)

Ringed seals (Pusa hispida) play a crucial role in Arctic food webs as important pelagic predators and represent an essential component of Inuvialuit culture and food security. Plastic pollution is recognized as a global threat of concern, and Arctic regions may act as sinks for anthropogenic debris. To date, mixed evidence exists concerning the propensity for Canadian Arctic marine mammals to ingest and retain plastic. Our study builds on existing literature by offering the first assessment of plastic ingestion in ringed seals harvested in the western Canadian Arctic. We detected no evidence of microplastic (particles ≥80 μm) retention in the stomachs of ten ringed seals from the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR) in the Northwest Territories, Canada. These results are consistent with previous studies that have found that some marine mammals do not accumulate microplastics in evaluated regions.

The Different Fate of the Pyrenean Desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) and the Eurasian Otter (Lutra lutra) under Climate and Land Use Changes

Climate and land use change can affect biodiversity in different ways, e.g., determining habitat loss, altering reproduction periods or disrupting biotic interactions. Here, we investigate the effects of climate and land use change on the spatial distribution of two semi-aquatic mammals, the Pyrenean desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) and the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra). We first modeled the current potential distribution of the desman and the otter in the Iberian Peninsula, considering topographic, climatic and land use variables. Second, we predicted their potential distribution in 2050 under climate and land use change scenarios. We calculated the percentage of range gain/loss and shift predicted for the two species under such scenarios and quantified the present and future spatial overlap between the two species distribution. Irrespective of the scenario, desman models show loss of suitable habitat, whereas the otter will undergo an opposite trend. Aside from a preponderant habitat loss, the desman is predicted to increase its spatial overlap with otter range under the optimistic scenarios, potentially meaning it will face an exacerbated predation by otters. The potential increase of both habitat loss and otters' predation might represent a major threat for the desman, which may affect the long-term persistence of this endemic species in the Iberian Peninsula.

Climate change and mercury in the Arctic: Biotic interactions

Global climate change has led to profound alterations of the Arctic environment and ecosystems, with potential secondary effects on mercury (Hg) within Arctic biota. This review presents the current scientific evidence for impacts of direct physical climate change and indirect ecosystem change on Hg exposure and accumulation in Arctic terrestrial, freshwater, and marine organisms. As the marine environment is elevated in Hg compared to the terrestrial environment, terrestrial herbivores that now exploit coastal/marine foods when terrestrial plants are iced over may be exposed to higher Hg concentrations. Conversely, certain populations of predators, including Arctic foxes and polar bears, have shown lower Hg concentrations related to reduced sea ice-based foraging and increased land-based foraging. How climate change influences Hg in Arctic freshwater fishes is not clear, but for lacustrine populations it may depend on lake-specific conditions, including interrelated alterations in lake ice duration, turbidity, food web length and energy sources (benthic to pelagic), and growth dilution. In several marine mammal and seabird species, tissue Hg concentrations have shown correlations with climate and weather variables, including climate oscillation indices and sea ice trends; these findings suggest that wind, precipitation, and cryosphere changes that alter Hg transport and deposition are impacting Hg concentrations in Arctic marine organisms. Ecological changes, including northward range shifts of sub-Arctic species and altered body condition, have also been shown to affect Hg levels in some populations of Arctic marine species. Given the limited number of populations and species studied to date, especially within Arctic terrestrial and freshwater systems, further research is needed on climate-driven processes influencing Hg concentrations in Arctic ecosystems and their net effects. Long-term pan-Arctic monitoring programs should consider ancillary datasets on climate, weather, organism ecology and physiology to improve interpretation of spatial variation and time trends of Hg in Arctic biota.

Glacial ice supports a distinct and undocumented polar bear subpopulation persisting in late 21st-century sea-ice conditions

Polar bears are susceptible to climate warming because of their dependence on sea ice, which is declining rapidly. We present the first evidence for a genetically distinct and functionally isolated group of polar bears in Southeast Greenland. These bears occupy sea-ice conditions resembling those projected for the High Arctic in the late 21st century, with an annual ice-free period that is >100 days longer than the estimated fasting threshold for the species. Whereas polar bears in most of the Arctic depend on annual sea ice to catch seals, Southeast Greenland bears have a year-round hunting platform in the form of freshwater glacial mélange. This suggests that marine-terminating glaciers, although of limited availability, may serve as previously unrecognized climate refugia. Conservation of Southeast Greenland polar bears, which meet criteria for recognition as the world's 20th polar bear subpopulation, is necessary to preserve the genetic diversity and evolutionary potential of the species.

Migratory vertebrates shift migration timing and distributions in a warming Arctic

Climate warming in the Arctic has led to warmer and earlier springs, and as a result, many food resources for migratory animals become available earlier in the season, as well as become distributed further northwards. To optimally profit from these resources, migratory animals are expected to arrive earlier in the Arctic, as well as shift their own spatial distributions northwards. Here, we review literature to assess whether Arctic migratory birds and mammals already show shifts in migration timing or distribution in response to the warming climate. Distribution shifts were most prominent in marine mammals, as expected from observed northward shifts of their resources. At least for many bird species, the ability to shift distributions is likely constrained by available habitat further north. Shifts in timing have been shown in many species of terrestrial birds and ungulates, as well as for polar bears. Within species, we found strong variation in shifts in timing and distributions between populations. Ou r review thus shows that many migratory animals display shifts in migration timing and spatial distribution in reaction to a warming Arctic. Importantly, we identify large knowledge gaps especially concerning distribution shifts and timing of autumn migration, especially for marine mammals. Our understanding of how migratory animals respond to climate change appears to be mostly limited by the lack of long-term monitoring studies.

Ringed seal (Pusa hispida) breeding habitat on the landfast ice in northwest Alaska during spring 1983 and 1984

There has been significant sea ice loss associated with climate change in the Pacific Arctic, with unquantified impacts to the habitat of ice-obligate marine mammals such as ringed seals (Pusa hispida). Ringed seals maintain breathing holes and excavate subnivean lairs on sea ice to provide protection from weather and predators during birthing, nursing, and resting. However, there is limited baseline information on the snow and ice habitat, distribution, density, and configuration of ringed seal structures (breathing holes, simple haul-out lairs, and pup lairs) in Alaska. Here, we describe historic field records from two regions of the eastern Chukchi Sea (Kotzebue Sound and Ledyard Bay) collected during spring 1983 and 1984 to quantify baseline ringed seal breeding habitat and map the distribution of ringed seal structures using modern geospatial tools. Of 490 structures located on pre-established study grids by trained dogs, 29% were pup lairs (25% in Kotzebue Sound and 33% in Ledyard Bay). Grids in Ledyard Bay had greater overall density of seal structures than those in Kotzebue Sound (8.6 structures/km² and 7.1 structures/km²), but structures were larger in Kotzebue Sound. Pup lairs were located in closer proximity to other structures and characterized by deeper snow and greater ice deformation than haul-out lairs or simple breathing holes. At pup lairs, snow depths averaged 74.9 cm (range 37–132 cm), with ice relief nearby averaging 76 cm (range 31–183 cm), and ice deformation 29.9% (range 5–80%). We compare our results to similar studies conducted in other geographic regions and discuss our findings in the context of recent declines in extent and duration of seasonal cover of landfast sea ice and snow deposition on sea ice. Ultimately, additional research is needed to understand the effects of recent environmental changes on ringed seals, but our study establishes a baseline upon which future research can measure pup habitat in northwest Alaska.

Yes, they can: polar bears Ursus maritimus successfully hunt Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus

The polar bear Ursus maritimus is one of the species most endangered by the rapidly declining sea–ice cover in the Arctic, which they use as a platform to hunt fatty, high-energy seals. In recent decades, more polar bears have been forced to remain longer on land, so their access to seals is limited. The importance of terrestrial food to polar bears is disputable, and more data are needed. Terrestrial ungulates could be an attractive substitute prey for them. Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus are prevalent and their distribution is completely within the range of polar bears. They constitute an attractive potential prey offering a significant energy return. Pre-2000 sources state that polar bears do not attack Svalbard reindeer. This report is the first description and documentation of the complete course of a polar bear hunt for adult reindeer in Hornsund, SW Spitsbergen, and also of the bear’s hunting behaviour and the reindeer’s response. Further, we report several other recent instances of bear–reindeer interactions in Svalbard, suggesting that polar bears now hunt reindeer more frequently than they used to. This increase in hunting is probably linked to the reduced ice cover, with bears spending more time on land, and a growing reindeer population. This study adds to earlier papers on how polar bears in Svalbard have increasingly shifted to a more terrestrial diet, and indicates that they may have an enhanced role as an apex predator in the terrestrial ecosystem.

Modeling ringed seal Pusa hispida habitat and lair emergence timing in the eastern Bering and Chukchi Seas

Ringed seals Pusa hispida are reliant on snow and sea ice for denning, and a better understanding of ringed seal habitat selection and timing of emergence from snow dens (also called lairs) is needed to quantify and predict effects of climate change in the Arctic. We used generalized additive models to assess relationships between ringed seal counts, from spring aerial surveys in the Bering Sea (2012 and 2013) and Chukchi Sea (2016), and spatiotemporal covariates including survey date, remotely sensed snow and sea-ice values, and short-term weather data. We produced separate models for total ringed seal counts and for pup counts within each region. Our models showed that in both areas, total ringed seal counts increased over the course of the spring, especially after 15 May, indicating emergence from lairs and/or the onset of basking behavior. For the more northerly Chukchi Sea, we found a substantial unimodal effect of snow melt progression and a positive effect of snow depth on total ringed seal counts. In contrast, Bering Sea total ringed seal counts and pup counts in both regions were affected much more strongly by date than by habitat variables. Overall, our findings demonstrate that snow depth and melt play an important role in the timing of ringed seal den emergence, particularly in the Chukchi Sea, and suggest that ringed seal denning may be affected by continued shifts in melt and snow depth associated with climate change.

Sea ice reduction drives genetic differentiation among Barents Sea polar bears

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is predicted to reduce both genetic diversity and gene flow in ice-dependent species, with potentially negative consequences for their long-term viability. Here, we tested for the population-genetic impacts of reduced sea ice cover on the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sampled across two decades (1995-2016) from the Svalbard Archipelago, Norway, an area that is affected by rapid sea ice loss in the Arctic Barents Sea. We analysed genetic variation at 22 microsatellite loci for 626 polar bears from four sampling areas within the archipelago. Our results revealed a 3-10% loss of genetic diversity across the study period, accompanied by a near 200% increase in genetic differentiation across regions. These effects may best be explained by a decrease in gene flow caused by habitat fragmentation owing to the loss of sea ice coverage, resulting in increased inbreeding of local polar bears within the focal sampling areas in the Svalbard Archipelago. This study illustrates the importance of genetic monitoring for developing adaptive management strategies for polar bears and other ice-dependent species.

Two Decades of Mercury Concentrations in Barents Sea Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) in Relation to Dietary Carbon, Sulfur, and Nitrogen

Temporal trends of total mercury (THg) were examined in female polar bear (Ursus maritimus) hair (n = 199) from the Barents Sea in 1995-2016. In addition, hair values of stable isotopes (n = 190-197) of carbon (δ¹³C), sulfur (δ³⁴S), and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) and information on breeding status, body condition, and age were obtained. Stable isotope values of carbon and sulfur reflect dietary source (e.g., marine vs terrestrial) and the nitrogen trophic level. Values for δ¹³C and δ³⁴S declined by -1.62 and -1.18‰ over the time of the study period, respectively, while values for δ¹⁵N showed no trend. Total Hg concentrations were positively related to both δ¹³C and δ³⁴S. Yearly median THg concentrations ranged from 1.61 to 2.75 μg/g and increased nonlinearly by 0.86 μg/g in total over the study. Correcting THg concentrations for stable isotope values of carbon and sulfur and additionally breeding status and age slightly accelerated the increase in THg concentrations; however, confidence intervals of the raw THg trend and the corrected THg trend had substantial overlap. The rise in THg concentrations in the polar bear food web was possibly related to climate-related re-emissions of previously stored Hg from thawing sea-ice, glaciers, and permafrost.

Contrasting Temporal Patterns of Mercury, Niche Dynamics, and Body Fat Indices of Polar Bears and Ringed Seals in a Melting Icescape

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and ringed seals (Pusa hispida) have a strong predator-prey relationship and are facing climate-associated Arctic habitat loss and harmful dietary exposure to total mercury (THg) and other pollutants. However, little is known about whether both species inhabiting the same area exhibit similar temporal patterns in Hg concentration, niche dynamics, and body fat indices. We used THg, δ¹³C, and δ¹⁵N values of western Hudson Bay polar bear hair (2004-2016) and ringed seal muscle samples (2003-2015) to investigate temporal trends of these variables and multidimensional niche metrics, as well as body fat indices for both species. We found a decline in THg concentration (by 3.8% per year) and δ¹³C (by 1.5‰) in ringed seals suggesting a change in feeding habits and carbon source use over time, whereas no significant changes occurred in polar bears. In contrast, the polar bear 3-dimensional niche size decreased by nearly half with no change in ringed seal niche size. The δ¹³C spacing between both species increased by approximately 1.5× suggesting different responses to annual changes in sympagic-pelagic carbon source production. Ringed seal body fat index was higher in years of earlier sea ice breakup with no change occurring in polar bears. These findings indicate that both species are responding differently to a changing environment suggesting a possible weakening of their predator-prey relationship in western Hudson Bay.

First abundance estimate for white whales Delphinapterus leucas in Svalbard, Norway

The Svalbard Archipelago (Norway) is experiencing rapid declines in the seasonal duration and extent of sea-ice cover, and local tidewater glaciers are melting. These environmental changes represent a threat to ice-associated species in the region, including white whales Delphinapterus leucas. However, no estimates of stock size or trends are available for this stock. An aerial survey was conducted during the summer of 2018, covering the coastlines of all major islands in Svalbard, as well fjords and open ocean areas. A total count was attempted for the coastlines, while coverage of the fjords and open ocean areas was designed as distance-sampling line transects. In total, 265 white whales were detected in 22 groups along the 4965 km of coastline coverage. No whales were observed on fjord (1481 km) or open ocean transects (535 km). After correcting for surface availability using behavioural data from the same area (in summer) and making adjustments for small areas not flown during the survey, the stock size was estimated to be 549 individuals (95% CI: 436%%CONV_ERR%%723). This estimate is surprisingly low given that this species is one of the most frequently observed cetaceans in the area, but it confirms suspicions based on difficulties in finding animals when operating white whale tagging programmes over the past decade. This first population estimate is important in the context of the rapid environmental change taking place in the Arctic and for providing a baseline for comparison with future estimates.

Breeding Brown Pelicans Improve Foraging Performance as Energetic Needs Rise

Optimal foraging theory states that animals should maximize resource acquisition rates with respect to energy expenditure, which may involve alteration of strategies in response to changes in resource availability and energetic need. However, field-based studies of changes in foraging behavior at fine spatial and temporal scales are rare, particularly among species that feed on highly mobile prey across broad landscapes. To derive information on changes in foraging behavior of breeding brown pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis) over time, we used GPS telemetry and distribution models of their dominant prey species to relate bird movements to changes in foraging habitat quality in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Over the course of each breeding season, pelican cohorts began by foraging in suboptimal habitats relative to the availability of high-quality patches, but exhibited a marked increase in foraging habitat quality over time that outpaced overall habitat improvement trends across the study site. These findings, which are consistent with adjustment of foraging patch use in response to increased energetic need, highlight the degree to which animal populations can optimize their foraging behaviors in the context of uncertain and dynamic resource availability, and provide an improved understanding of how landscape-level features can impact behavior.

Assessing the risks to United States and Canadian mammals caused by climate change using a trait-mediated model

A set of 182 populations of 76 mammal species in the United States and Canada, examined in natural conditions with minimized disturbances or management effects, shows that responses to climate change include negative responses, such as elevational range contractions, upward shifts and decreases in abundance, positive responses, such as range expansions, and no detectable responses. Responses vary among and within mammal species but many are correlated with species traits, particularly the responses linked to high extinction risks (= climate change risk: decreases in population sizes, range contractions, local extirpations). The traits showing the strongest links to differential responses to climate change are 1) body size—large mammals respond more often and most negatively to climate change, 2) activity times—few mammals with flexible active times respond to climate change, and 3) spatial distribution—high-latitude and high-elevation mammals responded more often to climate change. Using these traits and two approaches to trait weighting, I modeled the relative climate change risk for all 328 terrestrial, nonvolant mammal species in the United States and Canada across 10 levels of risk (low = 1–2, moderate = 3–4, moderate-high = 5–6, high = 7–8, very high = 9–10). The models predicted that 15% of these mammalian species are in the high- and very high-risk categories, including species from most orders. Many mammal populations and species listed as of conservation concern due to other human impacts by national or international agencies are also predicted by my models to be in the higher categories of climate change risk. My intention for these models is to clarify for managers and researchers which, where, and how mammals are responding to climate change relatively independent of other anthropogenic stressors (e.g., large-scale habitat change, overhunting) and to provide a preliminary assessment of species most in need of careful monitoring for climate change impacts.

COASTAL HABITAT CHANGE AND MARINE MEGAFAUNA BEHAVIOR: FLORIDA MANATEES ENCOUNTERING REDUCED FOOD PROVISIONS IN A PROMINENT WINTER REFUGE

A decline in submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) within Florida's spring-fed, thermal refuges raises questions about how these systems support winter foraging of Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris). We analyzed telemetry data for 12 manatees over seven years to assess their use of Kings Bay, a winter refuge with diminished SAV. After accounting for the effect of water temperature, we hypothesized that the number of trips out of Kings Bay would increase and the time wintering manatees spent in Kings Bay would decrease. Trips out of and into Kings Bay also were compared to assess potential influences on exiting or entering. There were no detectable differences in the number of trips out of the bay or overall time manatees spent in Kings Bay across winters. The percentage of time water temperatures were below 20°C was the single best predictor of increased time spent in Kings Bay. Trips out of Kings Bay were more likely to occur after 12:00 h and during a high but ebbing tide, compared to trips into the bay. Nine manatees tracked for longer than 75 days in winter spent 7-57% of their time in the Gulf of Mexico, and three of these manatees spent 7-65% of the winter >80 km from the mouth of Kings Bay. Results suggest the low amount of SAV in Kings Bay does not obviate its use by manatees, though there are likely tradeoffs for manatees regularly foraging elsewhere. Accounting for movements of Florida manatees through a network of habitats may improve management strategies and facilitate desirable conservation outcomes.

Effects of sea ice on Arctic biota: an emerging crisis discipline

The rapid decline in Arctic sea ice (ASI) extent, area and volume during recent decades is occurring before we can understand many of the mechanisms through which ASI interacts with biological processes both at sea and on land. As a consequence, our ability to predict and manage the effects of this enormous environmental change is limited, making this a crisis discipline Here, we propose a framework to study these effects, defining direct effects as those acting on life-history events of Arctic biota, and indirect effects, where ASI acts upon biological systems through chains of events, normally involving other components of the physical system and/or biotic interactions. Given the breadth and complexity of ASI's effects on Arctic biota, Arctic research requires a truly multidisciplinary approach to address this issue. In the absence of effective global efforts to tackle anthropogenic global warming, ASI will likely continue to decrease, compromising the conservation of many ASI-related taxonomic groups and ecosystems. Mitigation actions will rely heavily on the knowledge acquired on the mechanisms and components involved with the biological effects of ASI.

Hybrid approach to modeling spatial dynamics of systems with generalist predators

We consider hybrid spatial modeling approaches for ecological systems with a generalist predator utilizing a prey and either a second prey or an allochthonous resource. While spatial dispersion of populations is often modeled via stepping-stone (discrete spatial patches) or continuum (one connected spatial domain) formulations, we shall be interested in hybrid approaches which we use to reduce the dimension of certain components of the spatial domain, obtaining either a continuum model of varying spatial dimensions, or a mixed stepping-stone-continuum model. This approach results in models consisting of partial differential equations for some of the species which are coupled via reactive boundary conditions to lower dimensional partial differential equations or ordinary differential equations for the other species. In order to demonstrate the use of this approach, we consider two case studies. In the first case study, we consider a one-predator two-prey interaction between beavers, wolves and white-tailed deer in Voyageurs National Park. In the second case study, we consider predator-prey-allochthonous resource interactions between bears, berries and salmon on Kodiak Island. For each case study, we compare the results from the hybrid modeling approach with corresponding stepping-stone and continuum model results, highlighting benefits and limitations of the method. In some cases, we find that the hybrid modeling approach allows for solutions which are easier to simulate (akin to stepping-stone models) while maintaining seemingly more realistic spatial dynamics (akin to full continuum models).

Temporal Trends of Persistent Organic Pollutants in Barents Sea Polar Bears ( Ursus maritimus) in Relation to Changes in Feeding Habits and Body Condition

Temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs: PCBs, OH-PCBs, p, p'-DDE, HCB, β-HCH, oxychlordane, BDE-47, and 153) in relation to changes in feeding habits and body condition in adult female polar bears ( Ursus maritimus) from the Barents Sea subpopulation were examined over 20 years (1997-2017). All 306 samples were collected in the spring (April). Both stable isotope values of nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) and carbon (δ¹³C) from red blood cells declined over time, with a steeper trend for δ¹³C between 2012 and 2017, indicating a decreasing intake of marine and high trophic level prey items. Body condition, based on morphometric measurements, had a nonsignificant decreasing tendency between 1997 and 2005, and increased significantly between 2005 and 2017. Plasma concentrations of BDE-153 and β-HCH did not significantly change over time, whereas concentrations of Σ₄PCB, Σ₅OH-PCB, BDE-47, and oxychlordane declined linearly. Concentrations of p, p'-DDE and HCB, however, declined until 2012 and 2009, respectively, and increased thereafter. Changes in feeding habits and body condition did not significantly affect POP trends. The study indicates that changes in diet and body condition were not the primary driver of POPs in polar bears, but were controlled in large part by primary and/or secondary emissions of POPs.

Aquatic behaviour of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in an increasingly ice-free Arctic

Polar bears are ice-associated marine mammals that are known to swim and dive, yet their aquatic behaviour is poorly documented. Reductions in Arctic sea ice are clearly a major threat to this species, but understanding polar bears’ potential behavioural plasticity with respect to the ongoing changes requires knowledge of their swimming and diving skills. This study quantified time spent in water by adult female polar bears (n = 57) via deployment of various instruments bearing saltwater switches, and in some case pressure sensors (79 deployments, 64.8 bear-years of data). There were marked seasonal patterns in aquatic behaviour, with more time spent in the water during summer, when 75% of the polar bears swam daily (May-July). Females with cubs-of-the-year spent less time in the water than other females from den emergence (April) until mid-summer, consistent with small cubs being vulnerable to hypothermia and drowning. Some bears undertook notable long-distance-swims. Dive depths up to 13.9 m were recorded, with dives ≥5 m being common. The considerable swimming and diving capacities of polar bears might provide them with tools to exploit aquatic environments previously not utilized. This is likely to be increasingly important to the species’ survival in an Arctic with little or no persistent sea ice.

Impacts of natural history and exhibit factors on carnivore welfare

To improve the welfare of nonhuman animals under professional care, zoological institutions are continuously utilizing new methods to identify factors that lead to optimal welfare. Comparative methods have historically been used in the field of evolutionary biology but are increasingly being applied in the field of animal welfare. In the current study, data were obtained from direct behavioral observation and institutional records representing 80 individual animals from 34 different species of the order Carnivora. Data were examined to determine if a variety of natural history and animal management factors impacted the welfare of animals in zoological institutions. Output variables indicating welfare status included behavioral diversity, pacing, offspring production, and infant mortality. Results suggested that generalist species have higher behavioral diversity and offspring production in zoos compared with their specialist counterparts. In addition, increased minimum distance from the public decreased pacing and increased offspring production, while increased maximum distance from the public and large enclosure size decreased infant mortality. These results have implications for future exhibit design or renovation, as well as management practices and priorities for future research.

Emission Changes Dwarf the Influence of Feeding Habits on Temporal Trends of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances in Two Arctic Top Predators

We monitored concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in relation to climate-associated changes in feeding habits and food availability in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) (192 plasma and 113 liver samples, respectively) sampled from Svalbard, Norway, during 1997-2014. PFASs concentrations became greater with increasing dietary trophic level, as bears and foxes consumed more marine as opposed to terrestrial food, and as the availability of sea ice habitat increased. Long-chained perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) in arctic foxes decreased with availability of reindeer carcasses. The ∼9-14% yearly decline of C_6-8 perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (PFSAs) following the cease in C_6-8 PFSA precursor production in 2001 indicates that the peak exposure was mainly a result of atmospheric transport of the volatile precursors. However, the stable PFSA concentrations since 2009-2010 suggest that Svalbard biota is still exposed to ocean-transported PFSAs. Long-chain ocean-transported PFCAs increased 2-4% per year and the increase in C_12-14 PFCAs in polar bears tended to level off since ∼2009. Emerging short-chain PFASs showed no temporal changes. Climate-related changes in feeding habits and food availability moderately affected PFAS trends. Our results indicate that PFAS concentrations in polar bears and arctic foxes are mainly affected by emissions.