Assessing the utility of statistical adjustments for imperfect detection in tropical conservation science

Thresholds for adding degraded tropical forest to the conservation estate

Logged and disturbed forests are often viewed as degraded and depauperate environments compared with primary forest. However, they are dynamic ecosystems1 that provide refugia for large amounts of biodiversity2,3, so we cannot afford to underestimate their conservation value4. Here we present empirically defined thresholds for categorizing the conservation value of logged forests, using one of the most comprehensive assessments of taxon responses to habitat degradation in any tropical forest environment. We analysed the impact of logging intensity on the individual occurrence patterns of 1,681 taxa belonging to 86 taxonomic orders and 126 functional groups in Sabah, Malaysia. Our results demonstrate the existence of two conservation-relevant thresholds. First, lightly logged forests (<29% biomass removal) retain high conservation value and a largely intact functional composition, and are therefore likely to recover their pre-logging values if allowed to undergo natural regeneration. Second, the most extreme impacts occur in heavily degraded forests with more than two-thirds (>68%) of their biomass removed, and these are likely to require more expensive measures to recover their biodiversity value. Overall, our data confirm that primary forests are irreplaceable5, but they also reinforce the message that logged forests retain considerable conservation value that should not be overlooked.

Ecologically informed priors improve Bayesian model estimates of species richness and occupancy for undetected species

Detection error can bias observations of ecological processes, especially when some species are never detected during sampling. In many communities, the probable identity of these missing species is known from previous research and natural history collections, but this information is rarely incorporated into subsequent models. Here, I present prior aggregation as a method for including information from external sources in Bayesian hierarchical detection models. Prior aggregation combines information from multiple prior distributions, in this case, an ecologically informative, species-level prior, and an uninformative community-level prior. This approach incorporates external information into the model without sacrificing the advantages of modeling species in the context of the community. Using simulated data supplied to a multispecies occupancy model, I demonstrated that prior aggregation improves estimates of (1) metacommunity richness and (2) environmental covariates were associated with species-specific occupancy probabilities. When applied to a dataset of small mammals in Vermont, prior aggregation allowed the model to estimate occupancy correlates of the Eastern cottontail Sylvilagus floridanus, a species observed at several sites in the region but never captured. Prior aggregation can be used to improve the analysis of several important metrics in population and community ecology, including abundance, survivorship, and diversity.

Utilizing a top predator to prioritize site protection for biodiversity conservation

Ongoing global change makes it ever more urgent to find creative solutions for biodiversity preservation, but prioritizing sites for protection can be challenging. One shortcut lies in mapping the habitat requirements of well-established biodiversity indicators, such as top predators, to identify high-biodiversity sites. Here, we planned site protection for biodiversity conservation by developing a multi-scale species distribution model (SDM) for the raptorial Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; goshawk) breeding in an extensive megacity region of Japan. Specifically, we: (1) examined the determinants of top predator occurrence and thus of high-biodiversity value in this megacity setting, (2) identified the biodiversity hotspots, (3) validated whether they actually held higher biodiversity through an independent dataset, and (4) evaluated their current protection by environmental laws. The SDM revealed that goshawks preferred secluded sites far from roads, with abundant forest within a 100 m radius and extensive forest ecotones suitable for hunting within a 900 m radius. This multi-scale landscape configuration was independently confirmed to hold higher biodiversity, yet covered only 3.2% of the study area, with only 44.0% of these sites legally protected. Thus, a rapid biodiversity assessment mediated by a top predator quickly highlighted: (1) the poor development of biodiversity-friendly urban planning in this megacity complex, an aspect overlooked for decades of rapid urban sprawl, and (2) the extreme urgency of extending legal protection to the sites missed by the current protected area network. Exigent biodiversity indicators, such as top predators, could be employed in the early or late stages of anthropogenic impacts in order to proactively incorporate biodiversity protection into planning or flag key biodiversity relics. Our results confirm and validate the applied reliability of top predatory species as biodiversity conservation tools.

The value of volunteer surveillance for the early detection of biological invaders

Early detection of invaders requires finding small numbers of individuals across large landscapes. It has been argued that the only feasible way to achieve the sampling effort needed for early detection of an invader is to involve volunteer groups (citizen scientists, passive surveyors, etc.). A key concern is that volunteers may have a considerable false-positive and false-negative rate. The question then becomes whether verification of a report from a volunteer is worth the effort. This question is the topic of this paper. Since we are interested in early detection we calculate the Z% upper limit of the one sided confidence interval of the incidence (fraction infected) and use the term maximum expected plausible incidence for this. We compare the maximum plausible incidence when the expert samples on their own, q_E∼, and the maximum plausible incidence when the expert only verifies cases reported by the volunteer surveyor to be infected, q_V∼. The maximum plausible incidences q_E∼ and q_V∼. are related as, q_V∼=θ_fp1-θ_fnq_E∼ where θ_fp and θ_fn are the false positive and false negative rate of the volunteer surveyor, respectively. We also show that the optimal monitoring programme consists of verifying only the cases reported by the volunteer surveyor if, T_XT_N<θ_fp1-θ_fn, where T_N is the time needed for a sample taken by the expert and T_X is the time needed for an expert to verify a case reported by a volunteer surveyor. Our results can be used to calculate the maximum plausible incidence of a plant disease based on reports of passive surveyors that have been verified by experts and data from experts sampling on their own. The results can also be used in the development phase of a surveillance project to assess whether including passive surveyor reports is useful in the early detection of exotic invaders.

A systems approach framework for evaluating tree restoration interventions for social and ecological outcomes in rural tropical landscapes

The science guiding design and evaluation of restoration interventions in tropical landscapes is dominated by ecological processes and outcomes and lacks indicators and methods that integrate human wellbeing into the restoration process. We apply a new systems approach framework for tree restoration in forest-agricultural landscapes to show how this shortcoming can be addressed. Demonstrating 'proof of concept', we tested statistical models underlying the framework pathways with data collected from a case study in Tanzania. Local community perceptions of nature's values were not affected by levels of self-reported wildlife-induced crop damage. But mapped predictions from the systems approach under a tree restoration scenario suggested differential outcomes for biodiversity indicators and altered spatial patterns of crop damage risk, expected to jeopardize human wellbeing. The predictions map anticipated trade-offs in costs and benefits of restoration scenarios, which we have started to explore with stakeholders to identify restoration opportunities that consider local knowledge, value systems and human wellbeing. We suggest that the framework be applied to other landscapes to identify commonalities and differences in forest landscape restoration outcomes under varying governance and land use systems. This should form a foundation for evidence-based implementation of the global drive for forest landscape restoration, at local scales. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

High sensitivity of tropical forest birds to deforestation at lower altitudes

Habitat conversion is a major driver of tropical biodiversity loss, but its effects are poorly understood in montane environments. While community-level responses to habitat loss display strong elevational dependencies, it is unclear whether these arise via elevational turnover in community composition and interspecific differences in sensitivity or elevational variation in environmental conditions and proximity to thermal thresholds. Here we assess the relative importance of inter- and intraspecific variation across the elevational gradient by quantifying how 243 forest-dependent bird species vary in sensitivity to landscape-scale forest loss across a 3000-m elevational gradient in the Colombian Andes. We find that species that live at lower elevations are strongly affected by loss of forest in the nearby landscape, while those at higher elevations appear relatively unperturbed, an effect that is independent of phylogeny. Conversely, we find limited evidence of intraspecific elevational gradients in sensitivity, with populations displaying similar sensitivities to forest loss, regardless of where they exist in a species' elevational range. Gradients in biodiversity response to habitat loss thus appear to arise via interspecific gradients in sensitivity rather than proximity to climatically limiting conditions.

Integration of mark-recapture and acoustic detections for unbiased population estimation in animal communities

Abundance estimation methods that combine several types of data are becoming increasingly common because they yield more accurate and precise parameter estimates and predictions than are possible from a single data source. These beneficial effects result from increasing sample size (through data pooling) and complementarity between different data types. Here, we test whether integrating mark-recapture data with passive acoustic detections into a joint likelihood improves estimates of population size in a multi-guild community. We compared the integrated model to a mark-recapture-only model using simulated data first and then using a data set of mist-net captures and acoustic recordings from an Afrotropical agroforest bird community. The integrated model with simulated data improved accuracy and precision of estimated population size and detection parameters. When applied to field data, the integrated model was able to produce, for each bird guild, ecologically plausible estimates of population size and detection parameters, with more precision compared with the mark-recapture model. Overall, our results show that adding acoustic data to mark-recapture analyses improves estimates of population size. With the increasing availability of acoustic recording devices, this data collection technique could readily be added to routine field protocols, leading to a cost-efficient improvement of traditional mark-recapture population estimation.

A before−after assessment of the response of mammals to tourism in a Brazilian national park

Worldwide, nature-based tourism is becoming more popular and important economically. However, there is still debate regarding its impact on wildlife in protected areas. We conducted a quasi-experimental study to investigate the effects of tourism on the mammal community of Cavernas do Peruaçu National Park, a priority area for conservation in Brazil. We used camera traps to survey tourist and non-tourist trails during 2011–2017, encompassing periods before and after tourism started in the Park. We used four metrics for assessment: species richness, probability of using trails, activity levels and daily activity patterns. After tourism began in the Park there was no significant change in species richness and the probability of using tourist trails either increased or remained stable for five of the six species assessed. The rock cavy Kerodon rupestris was the only species to be displaced from tourist areas and to show reduced overall activity on tourist trails after tourism began. The ocelot Leopardus pardalis showed reduced diurnal activity on tourist trails, an indication of temporal adjustment. Overall, our results show that the initial years of visitation at the Park had limited negative impacts on the target mammal species, supporting the possibility of accommodating tourism activity and effective conservation of wildlife in the region. However, it is essential to continue monitoring in the Park because of the expected growth in tourism and potential time lags in responses of species.

Impact of an IUCN national Red List of threatened flora on scientific attention

Red Lists are thought to attract attention to the conservation of threatened species. Determining the impact of these lists on the attention of scientists is a matter of consequence for biodiversity conservation. We evaluated trends in mentions of Brazilian angiosperm plants in the biodiversity conservation literature and tested the effect of the Red List of Brazilian Flora (RLBF) publication on these mentions. We collected mentions in the literature available in Google Scholar from the years 1990-2020, for 2449 Brazilian angiosperm species assessed in different IUCN categories. We used a Bayesian structural time-series method to test the effect of the RLBF publication on the number of mentions for the set of species in the IUCN categories, angiosperm families, and plants of commercial interest. The results showed a gap in mentions for many threatened and Data Deficient species in the scientific literature. We also found that the mentions were biased toward species of commercial interest and were unrelated to their threat status. Publication of the RLBF positively affected the number of mentions for IUCN threat categories and for more than half of the angiosperm families. These results were obtained after a few species of commercial interest were excluded from each treated group. This study suggests that the Red List assessments are essential to determine priorities for resource allocation to scientific activities. However, this effect was not sufficient to reduce the bias in scientific attention. Our findings support the need to stimulate more effective programs to fund research on threatened plant species.

Big Bird Plots: Benchmarking Neotropical Bird Communities to Address Questions in Ecology and Conservation in an Era of Rapid Change

Extensive networks of large plots have the potential to transform knowledge of avian community dynamics through time and across geographical space. In the Neotropics, the global hotspot of avian diversity, only six 100-ha plots, all located in lowland forests of Amazonia, the Guianan shield and Panama, have been inventoried sufficiently. We review the most important lessons learned about Neotropical forest bird communities from those big bird plots and explore opportunities for creating a more extensive network of additional plots to address questions in ecology and conservation, following the model of the existing ForestGEO network of tree plots. Scholarly impact of the big bird plot papers has been extensive, with the papers accumulating nearly 1,500 citations, particularly on topics of tropical ecology, avian conservation, and community organization. Comparisons of results from the plot surveys show no single methodological scheme works effectively for surveying abundances of all bird species at all sites; multiple approaches have been utilized and must be employed in the future. On the existing plots, abundance patterns varied substantially between the South American plots and the Central American one, suggesting different community structuring mechanisms are at work and that additional sampling across geographic space is needed. Total bird abundance in Panama, dominated by small insectivores, was double that of Amazonia and the Guianan plateau, which were dominated by large granivores and frugivores. The most common species in Panama were three times more abundant than those in Amazonia, whereas overall richness was 1.5 times greater in Amazonia. Despite these differences in community structure, other basic information, including uncertainty in population density estimates, has yet to be quantified. Results from existing plots may inform drivers of differences in community structure and create baselines for detection of long-term regional changes in bird abundances, but supplementation of the small number of plots is needed to increase generalizability of results and reveal the texture of geographic variation. We propose fruitful avenues of future research based on our current synthesis of the big bird plots. Collaborating with the large network of ForestGEO tree plots could be one approach to improve understanding of linkages between plant and bird diversity. Careful quantification of bird survey effort, recording of exact locations of survey routes or stations, and archiving detailed metadata will greatly enhance the value of benchmark data for future repeat surveys of the existing plots and initial surveys of newly established plots.

Spatial distribution of the Barbary Partridge (Alectoris barbara) in Sardinia explained by land use and climate

More than half of the European population of the Barbary Partridge is in Sardinia; nonetheless, the researches concerning this species are very scarce, and its conservation status is not defined because of a deficiency of data. This research aimed to analyse the habitat selection and the factors affecting the abundance and the density of the Barbary Partridge in Sardinia. We used the data collected over 8 years (between 2004 and 2013) by spring call counts in 67 study sites spread on the whole island. We used GLMM to define the relationships between the environment (topography, land use, climate) both the occurrence and the abundance of the species. Moreover, we estimated population densities by distance sampling. The Barbary Partridge occurred in areas at low altitude with garrigue and pastures, avoiding woodlands and sparsely vegetated areas. We found a strong relationship between the occurrence probability and the climate, in particular, a positive relation with temperature and a negative effect of precipitation, especially in April–May, during brood rearing. Furthermore, dry crops positively affected the abundance of the species. We estimated a density of 14.1 partridges per km2, similar to other known estimates. Our findings are important both because they increase the knowledge concerning this species, which is considered data deficient in Italy, and because they are useful to plan management actions aimed to maintain viable populations if necessary.

Spatial structure of reproductive success infers mechanisms of ungulate invasion in Nearctic boreal landscapes

Landscape change is a key driver of biodiversity declines due to habitat loss and fragmentation, but spatially shifting resources can also facilitate range expansion and invasion. Invasive populations are reproductively successful, and landscape change may buoy this success.We show how modeling the spatial structure of reproductive success can elucidate the mechanisms of range shifts and sustained invasions for mammalian species with attendant young. We use an example of white-tailed deer (deer; Odocoileus virginianus) expansion in the Nearctic boreal forest, a North American phenomenon implicated in severe declines of threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus).We hypothesized that deer reproductive success is linked to forage subsidies provided by extensive landscape change via resource extraction. We measured deer occurrence using data from 62 camera traps in northern Alberta, Canada, over three years. We weighed support for multiple competing hypotheses about deer reproductive success using multistate occupancy models and generalized linear models in an AIC-based model selection framework.Spatial patterns of reproductive success were best explained by features associated with petroleum exploration and extraction, which offer early-seral vegetation resource subsidies. Effect sizes of anthropogenic features eclipsed natural heterogeneity by two orders of magnitude. We conclude that anthropogenic early-seral forage subsidies support high springtime reproductive success, mitigating or exceeding winter losses, maintaining populations. Synthesis and Applications. Modeling spatial structuring in reproductive success can become a key goal of remote camera-based global networks, yielding ecological insights into mechanisms of invasion and range shifts to inform effective decision-making for global biodiversity conservation.

A multi-species occupancy modeling approach to access the impacts of land use and land cover on terrestrial vertebrates in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), Western Ghats, India

Urbanization is one of the main drivers in the conversion of natural habitats into different land use and land cover types (LULC) which threaten the local as well as global biodiversity. This impact is particularly alarming in tropical countries like India, where ~18% of the world's population live, and its ever-growing economy (i.e., industrial development) expanded urban areas by several folds. We undertook this study to examine the impacts of urbanization (i.e., LULC) on terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians) in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), Western Ghats, India. We sampled different habitats ranged from highly disturbed urban areas to less disturbed forested areas. Multiple sampling methods such as quadrat sampling, line transect, point count, and camera trapping were used to quantify the target taxa. We used multi-species occupancy modeling in the Bayesian framework to estimate detection probability and occupancy and to assess the effect of various LULC on different species. All four groups showed a significant negative impact of increasing anthropogenic habitat cover on occupancy. Out of 213 species detected in this study, 96% of mammals, 85% of birds, 93.75% of amphibians, and 69.43% of reptiles showed a negative effect of anthropogenic habitat cover. Evidence suggests that historical and recent human disturbances could have played an important role in transforming this area from semi-evergreen and moist deciduous forest to open, scrubby, dry deciduous, and fire-prone landscape. This might be the reason for the high occupancy of open and degraded forest habitat preferring species in our study area. We recommend species-rich areas in the MMR, e.g., Karnala Bird Sanctuary (KBS) and Prabalgad-Matheran-Malanggad Hill Range (PMMHR), must be conserved through habitat restoration, ecotourism, public awareness, and policymaking.

Estimating retention benchmarks for salvage logging to protect biodiversity

Forests are increasingly affected by natural disturbances. Subsequent salvage logging, a widespread management practice conducted predominantly to recover economic capital, produces further disturbance and impacts biodiversity worldwide. Hence, naturally disturbed forests are among the most threatened habitats in the world, with consequences for their associated biodiversity. However, there are no evidence-based benchmarks for the proportion of area of naturally disturbed forests to be excluded from salvage logging to conserve biodiversity. We apply a mixed rarefaction/extrapolation approach to a global multi-taxa dataset from disturbed forests, including birds, plants, insects and fungi, to close this gap. We find that 75 ± 7% (mean ± SD) of a naturally disturbed area of a forest needs to be left unlogged to maintain 90% richness of its unique species, whereas retaining 50% of a naturally disturbed forest unlogged maintains 73 ± 12% of its unique species richness. These values do not change with the time elapsed since disturbance but vary considerably among taxonomic groups.

Biomass, abundances, and abundance and geographical range size relationship of birds along a rainforest elevational gradient in Papua New Guinea

The usually positive inter-specific relationship between geographical range size and the abundance of local bird populations comes with exceptions. On continents, the majority of these exceptions have been described from tropical montane areas in Africa, where geographically-restricted bird species are unusually abundant. We asked how the local abundances of passerine and non-passerine bird species along an elevational gradient on Mt. Wilhelm, Papua New Guinea relate to their geographical range size. We collected data on bird assemblages at eight elevations (200–3,700 m, at 500 m elevational increments). We used a standardized point-counts at 16 points at each elevational study site. We partitioned the birds into feeding guilds, and we obtained data on geographical range sizes from the Bird-Life International data zone. We observed a positive relationship between abundance and geographical range size in the lowlands. This trend changed to a negative one towards higher elevations. The total abundances of the assemblage showed a hump-shaped pattern along the elevational gradient, with passerine birds, namely passerine insectivores, driving the observed pattern. In contrast to abundances, the mean biomass of the bird assemblages decreased with increasing elevation. Our results show that montane bird species maintain dense populations which compensate for the decreased available area near the top of the mountain.

Influences of landscape change and winter severity on invasive ungulate persistence in the Nearctic boreal forest

Climate and landscape change are drivers of species range shifts and biodiversity loss; understanding how they facilitate and sustain invasions has been empirically challenging. Winter severity is decreasing with climate change and is a predicted mechanism of contemporary and future range shifts. For example, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) expansion is a continental phenomenon across the Nearctic with ecological consequences for entire biotic communities. We capitalized on recent temporal variation in winter severity to examine spatial and temporal dynamics of invasive deer distribution in the Nearctic boreal forest. We hypothesized deer distribution would decrease in severe winters reflecting historical climate constraints, and remain more static in moderate winters reflecting recent climate. Further, we predicted that regardless of winter severity, deer distribution would persist and be best explained by early seral forage subsidies from extensive landscape change via resource extraction. We applied dynamic occupancy models in time, and species distribution models in space, to data from 62 camera traps sampled over 3 years in northeastern Alberta, Canada. Deer distribution shrank more markedly in severe winters but rebounded each spring regardless of winter severity. Deer distribution was best explained by anthropogenic landscape features assumed to provide early seral vegetation subsidy, accounting for natural landcover. We conclude that deer dynamics in the northern boreal forest are influenced both by landscape change across space and winter severity through time, the latter expected to further decrease with climate change. We contend that the combined influence of these two drivers is likely pervasive for many species, with changing resources offsetting or augmenting physiological limitations.

Avian functional responses to landscape recovery

Restoring native vegetation in agricultural landscapes can reverse biodiversity declines via species gains. Depending on whether the traits of colonizers are complementary or redundant to the assemblage, species gains can increase the efficiency or stability of ecological functions, yet detecting these processes is not straightforward. We propose a new conceptual model to identify potential changes to complementarity and redundancy in response to landscape change via relative changes in taxonomic and functional richness. We applied our model to a 14-year study of birds across an extensive agricultural region. We found compelling evidence that high levels of landscape-scale tree cover and patch-scale restoration were significant determinants of functional change in the overall bird assemblage. This was true for every one of the six traits investigated individually, indicating increased trait-specific functional complementarity and redundancy in the assemblage. Applying our conceptual model to species diversity data provided new insights into how the return of vertebrates to restored landscapes may affect ecological function.

What are the main drivers of survival and recruitment in tropical forest marsupials? A 16-year study

Tropical forest marsupials exhibit large interannual variation in population sizes, with direct negative density dependence capturing the essential features of their dynamics. However, the demographic mechanisms underlying population growth rate and driving both survival and reproduction are still unclear. We used a 16-year capture-mark-recapture data set for five tropical forest marsupials to test for seasonal and interannual density dependence in survival and recruitment. Hypotheses regarding the effects of exogenous (rainfall and minimum temperature) factors on survival, recruitment, and reproductive parameters (fecundity, litter size, and proportion of reproductive females) were also tested. Population size negatively affected survival in three of five species. High population sizes in a given year reduced survival rates in the following year, with strong detrimental effects on males. Recruitment and proportion of reproductive females were highly dependent on weather variables, and were not affected by previous population sizes (except for Metachirus nudicaudatus). Fecundity (number of female offspring/female) was related negatively to population size only in the black-eared opossum (Didelphis aurita), while litter size was a relatively conservative parameter, largely independent of external conditions. Our analyses indicate that density-dependent survival is the mechanism that regulates population size of tropical forest marsupials, either through a reduction in survival or an increase in emigration rates. This general regulatory mechanism may be common to other marsupials in the Atlantic Forest and other tropical forests.

Marsupiais de florestas tropicais exibem grande variação interanual nos tamanhos populacionais, com dependência negativa e direta da densidade capturando a essência de sua dinâmica populacional. No entanto, os mecanismos demográficos subjacentes à taxa de crescimento populacional e determinantes da sobrevivência e reprodução ainda são incertos. Nós usamos 16 anos de dados de captura-marcação-recaptura de cinco espécies de marsupiais de florestas tropicais para avaliar a dependência de densidade sazonal e interanual na sobrevivência e recrutamento. Hipóteses sobre efeitos de fatores exógenos (pluviosidade e temperatura mínima) na sobrevivência, recrutamento e parâmetros reprodutivos (fecundidade, tamanho da ninhada e proporção de fêmeas reprodutivas) também foram testadas. O tamanho da população afetou negativamente a sobrevivência em três das cinco espécies. O tamanho populacional elevado em um ano reduziu as taxas de sobrevivência no ano seguinte, com efeitos mais negativos nos machos. Recrutamento e proporção de fêmeas reprodutivas foram dependentes das variáveis climáticas e não foram afetados pelos tamanhos populacionais anteriores (com exceção de Metachirus nudicaudatus). A fecundidade (número de filhotes fêmea/fêmea) foi relacionada negativamente ao tamanho da população do gambá-de-orelha-preta (Didelphis aurita), enquanto o tamanho da ninhada foi um parâmetro relativamente conservador e independente das condições externas. Nossas análises indicam que a sobrevivência dependente da densidade regula as populações de marsupiais em florestas tropicais, seja através da redução na sobrevivência ou no aumento da emigração. Esse mecanismo regulatório pode ser comum a outros marsupiais na Mata Atlântica e outras florestas tropicais.

Cave morphology, microclimate and abundance of five cave predators from the Monte Albo (Sardinia, Italy)

Background

Systematic data collection on species and their exploited environments is of key importance for conservation studies. Within the less-known environments, the subterranean ones are neither easy to be studied, nor to be explored. Subterranean environments house a wide number of specialised organisms, many of which show high sensitivity to habitat alteration. Despite the undeniable importance to monitor the status of the subterranean biodiversity, standardised methodologies to record biotic and abiotic data in these environments are still not fully adopted, impeding therefore the creation of comparable datasets useful for monitoring the ecological condition in the subterranean environments and for conservation assessment of related species.

New information

In this work we describe a methodology allowing the collection of standardised abiotic and biotic data in subterranean environments. To show this, we created a large dataset including information on environmental features (morphology and microclimate) and abundance of five predators (one salamander, three spiders and one snail) occurring in seven caves of the Monte Albo (Sardinia, Italy), an important biodiversity hotspot. We performed 77 surveys on 5,748 m² of subterranean environments througout a year, recording 1,695 observations of the five cave predators. The fine-scale data collection adopted in our methodology allowed us to record detailed information related to both morphology and microclimate of the cave inner environment. Furthermore, this method allows us to account for species-imperfect detection when recording presence/abundance data.

Quantifying Recreational Use of an Estuary: A Case Study of Three Bays, Cape Cod, USA

Estimates of the types and number of recreational users visiting an estuary are critical data for quantifying the value of recreation and how that value might change with variations in water quality or other management decisions. However, estimates of recreational use are minimal and conventional intercept surveys methods are often infeasible for widespread application to estuaries. Therefore, a practical observational sampling approach was developed to quantify the recreational use of an estuary without the use of surveys. Designed to be simple and fast to allow for replication, the methods involved the use of periodic instantaneous car counts multiplied by extrapolation factors derived from all-day counts. This simple sampling approach can be used to estimate visitation to diverse types of access points on an estuary in a single day as well as across multiple days. Evaluation of this method showed that when periodic counts were taken within a preferred time window (from 11am-4:30pm), the estimates were within 44 percent of actual daily visitation. These methods were applied to the Three Bays estuary system on Cape Cod, USA. The estimated combined use across all its public access sites is similar to the use at a mid-sized coastal beach, demonstrating the value of estuarine systems. Further, this study is the first to quantify the variety and magnitude of recreational uses at several different types of access points throughout the estuary using observational methods. This work can be transferred to the many small coastal access points used for recreation across New England and beyond.

Effects of trapping effort and trap placement on estimating abundance of Humboldt's flying squirrels

Live trapping is a common tool used to assess demography of small mammals. However, live-trapping is often expensive and stressful to captured individuals. Thus, assessing the relative tradeoffs among study goals, project expenses, and animal well-being is necessary. Here, we evaluated how apparent bias and precision of estimates for apparent annual survival, abundance, capture probability, and recapture probability of Humboldt’s flying squirrels (Glaucomys oregonensis) varied with the number of secondary trapping occasions. We used data from forested sites trapped on 12 consecutive occasions annually in the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest (9 sites, 6 years) and the Siuslaw National Forest (seven sites, three years) in Oregon. We used Huggins robust design models to estimate parameters of interest for the first 4, 8, and 12 trapping occasions. We also estimated the effect of attaching Tomahawk traps to tree boles on site- and year-specific flying squirrel capture frequencies. Our estimates with 12 occasions were similar to those from previous studies. Abundances and capture probabilities were variable among years on both sites; however, variation was much lower on the Siuslaw sites. Reducing the length of primary trapping occasions from 12 to 8 nights had very little impact on parameter estimates, but further reducing the length of primary trapping occasions to four nights caused substantial apparent bias in parameter estimates and decreased precision. We found that attaching Tomahawk traps to tree boles increased the site- and year-specific capture frequency of flying squirrels. Our results suggest that live-trapping studies targeting Humboldt’s flying squirrels in the Pacific Northwest of the United States could reduce per-site costs and stress to captured individuals without biasing estimates by reducing the length of primary trapping occasions to 8 nights. We encourage similar analyses for other commonly-trapped species in these and other ecosystems.

Simultaneous-count models to estimate abundance from counts of unmarked individuals with imperfect detection

We developed a method to estimate population abundance from simultaneous counts of unmarked individuals over multiple sites. We considered that at each sampling occasion, individuals in a population could be detected at 1 of the survey sites or remain undetected and used either multinomial or binomial simultaneous-count models to estimate abundance, the latter being equivalent to an N-mixture model with one site. We tested model performance with simulations over a range of detection probabilities, population sizes, growth rates, number of years, sampling occasions, and sites. We then applied our method to 3 critically endangered vulture species in Cambodia to demonstrate the real-world applicability of the model and to provide the first abundance estimates for these species in Cambodia. Our new approach works best when existing methods are expected to perform poorly (i.e., few sites and large variation in abundance among sites) and if individuals may move among sites between sampling occasions. The approach performed better when there were >8 sampling occasions and net probability of detection was high (>0.5). We believe our approach will be useful in particular for simultaneous surveys at aggregation sites, such as roosts. The method complements existing approaches for estimating abundance of unmarked individuals and is the first method designed specifically for simultaneous counts.

Dynamic multi-species occupancy models reveal individualistic habitat preferences in a high-altitude grassland bird community

Moist, high-altitude grasslands of eastern South African harbour rich avian diversity and endemism. This area is also threatened by increasingly intensive agriculture and land conversion for energy production. This conflict is particularly evident at Ingula, an Important Bird and Biodiversity Area located within the least conserved high-altitude grasslands and which is also the site of a new Pumped Storage Scheme. The new management seeks to maximise biodiversity through manipulation of the key habitat variables: grass height and grass cover through burning and grazing to make habitat suitable for birds. However, different species have individual habitat preferences, which further vary through the season. We used a dynamic multi-species occupancy model to examine the seasonal occupancy dynamics of 12 common grassland bird species and their habitat preferences. We estimated monthly occupancy, colonisation and persistence in relation to grass height and grass cover throughout the summer breeding season of 2011/12. For majority of these species, at the beginning of the season occupancy increased with increasing grass height and decreased with increasing grass cover. Persistence and colonisation decreased with increasing grass height and cover. However, the 12 species varied considerably in their responses to grass height and cover. Our results suggest that management should aim to provide plots which vary in grass height and cover to maximise bird diversity. We also conclude that the decreasing occupancy with increasing grass cover and low colonisation with increasing grass height and cover is a results of little grazing on our study site. We further conclude that some of the 12 selected species are good indicators of habitat suitability more generally because they represent a range of habitat needs and are relatively easy to monitor.

Spatio-temporal ecology of sympatric felids on Borneo. Evidence for resource partitioning?

Niche differentiation, the partitioning of resources along one or more axes of a species' niche hyper-volume, is widely recognised as an important mechanism for sympatric species to reduce interspecific competition and predation risk, and thus facilitate co-existence. Resource partitioning may be facilitated by behavioural differentiation along three main niche dimensions: habitat, food and time. In this study, we investigate the extent to which these mechanisms can explain the coexistence of an assemblage of five sympatric felids in Borneo. Using multi-scale logistic regression, we show that Bornean felids exhibit differences in both their broad and fine-scale habitat use. We calculate temporal activity patterns and overlap between these species, and present evidence for temporal separation within this felid guild. Lastly, we conducted an all-subsets logistic regression to predict the occurrence of each felid species as a function of the co-occurrence of a large number of other species and showed that Bornean felids co-occurred with a range of other species, some of which could be candidate prey. Our study reveals apparent resource partitioning within the Bornean felid assemblage, operating along all three niche dimension axes. These results provide new insights into the ecology of these species and the broader community in which they live and also provide important information for conservation planning for this guild of predators.

The Certainty of Uncertainty: Potential Sources of Bias and Imprecision in Disease Ecology Studies

Wildlife diseases have important implications for wildlife and human health, the preservation of biodiversity and the resilience of ecosystems. However, understanding disease dynamics and the impacts of pathogens in wild populations is challenging because these complex systems can rarely, if ever, be observed without error. Uncertainty in disease ecology studies is commonly defined in terms of either heterogeneity in detectability (due to variation in the probability of encountering, capturing, or detecting individuals in their natural habitat) or uncertainty in disease state assignment (due to misclassification errors or incomplete information). In reality, however, uncertainty in disease ecology studies extends beyond these components of observation error and can arise from multiple varied processes, each of which can lead to bias and a lack of precision in parameter estimates. Here, we present an inventory of the sources of potential uncertainty in studies that attempt to quantify disease-relevant parameters from wild populations (e.g., prevalence, incidence, transmission rates, force of infection, risk of infection, persistence times, and disease-induced impacts). We show that uncertainty can arise via processes pertaining to aspects of the disease system, the study design, the methods used to study the system, and the state of knowledge of the system, and that uncertainties generated via one process can propagate through to others because of interactions between the numerous biological, methodological and environmental factors at play. We show that many of these sources of uncertainty may not be immediately apparent to researchers (for example, unidentified crypticity among vectors, hosts or pathogens, a mismatch between the temporal scale of sampling and disease dynamics, demographic or social misclassification), and thus have received comparatively little consideration in the literature to date. Finally, we discuss the type of bias or imprecision introduced by these varied sources of uncertainty and briefly present appropriate sampling and analytical methods to account for, or minimise, their influence on estimates of disease-relevant parameters. This review should assist researchers and practitioners to navigate the pitfalls of uncertainty in wildlife disease ecology studies.

Determining carnivore habitat use in a rubber/forest landscape in Brazil using multispecies occupancy models

Understanding the factors that influence the presence and distribution of carnivores in human-dominated agricultural landscapes is one of the main challenges for biodiversity conservation, especially in landscapes where setting aside large protected areas is not feasible. Habitat use models of carnivore communities in rubber plantations are lacking despite the critical roles carnivores play in structuring ecosystems and the increasing expansion of rubber plantations. We investigated the habitat use of a mammalian carnivore community within a 4,200-ha rubber plantation/forest landscape in Bahia, Brazil. We placed two different brands of camera traps in a 90-site grid. We used a multispecies occupancy model to determine the probabilities of habitat use by each species and the effect of different brands of camera traps on their detection probabilities. Species showed significant differences in habitat use with domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) and crab-eating foxes (Cerdocyon thous) having higher probabilities of using rubber groves and coatis (Nasua nasua) having a higher probability of using forest. The moderate level of captures and low detection probabilities (≤ 0.1) of tayras (Eira barbara) and wildcats (Leopardus spp.) precluded a precise estimation of habitat use probabilities using the multispecies occupancy model. The different brands of camera traps had a significant effect on the detection probability of all species. Given that the carnivore community has persisted in this 70-year-old landscape, the results show the potential of rubber/forest landscapes to provide for the long-term conservation of carnivore communities in the Atlantic forest, especially in mosaics with 30–40% forest cover and guard patrolling systems. The results also provide insights for mitigating the impact of rubber production on biodiversity.

Is the Italian stream frog (Rana italica Dubois, 1987) an opportunistic exploiter of cave twilight zone?

Studies on frogs exploiting subterranean environments are extremely scarce, as these Amphibians are usually considered accidental in these environments. However, according to recent studies, some anurans actively select subterranean environments on the basis of specific environmental features, and thus are able to inhabit these environments throughout the year. We present the first study on the abundance and spatial use of the Italian stream frog, Ranaitalica, in subterranean environments. We monthly collected data from 66 cave sectors during a whole year (2013), recording &gt; 120 detections of R.italica. Frogs were more frequently found close to the cave entrance, without significant differences between age classes or sexes. Adults generally were observed being higher up along cave walls compared to juveniles. Frogs abundance was higher in areas showing specific environmental features, such as warm temperature, low incident light and the presence of potential prey. Ranaitalica likely occupies subterranean areas characterized by a combination of microclimatic suitability and prey availability.

Using species traits to predict detectability of animals on aerial surveys

In animal surveys, detectability can vary widely across species. We hypothesized that detectability of animals should be a function of species traits such as mass, color, and mean herd size. We also hypothesized that models of detectability based on species traits can be used to predict detectability for new species not in the original data set, leading to substantial benefits for ecology and conservation. We tested these hypotheses with double-observer aerial surveys of 10 mammal species in northern Botswana. We combined all 10 species and modeled their detectability with species traits (mass, mean herd size, color) as predictors while controlling for observer effects, vegetation, and herd size. We found support for effects of mass and an interaction between herd size and mean herd size on detectability. This model accurately predicted the ratio of herds detected by two observers vs. one observer for 8 of 10 species. To test whether a model based on species traits could be applied to a new species, we serially deleted each species from the data set, fit a trait-based model to the remaining nine species, and used this model to predict detectability for the deleted species. The model was able to reproduce the species-trait model for seven species and accurately predicted the ratio of detections by one or two observers for a different set of seven species; the model was successful by both measures for five species. To our knowledge, this represents the first time that a mechanistic model for detectability of animals has been used to predict detectability for new species. Prediction failed for species with extreme values of traits, suggesting that predicting detectability is not possible near or beyond the boundaries of one's data set. The approach taken in this paper can potentially be used with a variety of taxa and may provide new opportunities to apply detectability corrections where they have not been possible before.

Trait-based indicators of bird species sensitivity to habitat loss are effective within but not across data sets

Species' traits have been widely championed as the key to predicting which species are most threatened by habitat loss, yet previous work has failed to detect trends that are consistent enough to guide large-scale conservation and management. Here we explore whether traits and environmental variables predict species sensitivity to habitat loss across two data sets generated by independent avifaunal studies in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil, both of which detected a similar assemblage of species, and similar species-specific responses to habitat change, across an overlapping sample of sites. Specifically, we tested whether 25 distributional, climatic, ecological, behavioral, and morphological variables predict sensitivity to habitat loss among 196 bird species, both within and across studies, and when data were analysed as occurrence or abundance. We found that four to nine variables showed high explanatory power within a single study or data set, but none performed as strong predictors across all data sets. Our results demonstrate that the use of species traits to predict sensitivity to anthropogenic habitat loss can produce predictions that are species- and site-specific and not scalable to whole regions or biomes, and thus should be used with caution.