Spatial occupancy models for predicting metapopulation dynamics and viability following reintroduction

Building pondscapes for amphibian metapopulations

The success of ponds constructed to restore ecological infrastructure for pond-breeding amphibians and benefit aquatic biodiversity depends on where and how they are built. We studied effects of pond and landscape characteristics, including connectivity, on metapopulation dynamics of 12 amphibian species in Switzerland. To understand the determinants of long-term occupancy (here summarized as incidence), environmental effects on both colonization and persistence should be considered. We fitted dynamic occupancy models to 20 years of monitoring data on a pond construction program to quantify effects of pond and landscape characteristics and different connectivity metrics on colonization and persistence probabilities in constructed ponds. Connectivity to existing populations explained dynamics better than structural connectivity metrics, and simple metrics (distance to the nearest neighbor population, population density) were useful surrogates for dispersal kernel-weighted metrics commonly used in metapopulation theory. Population connectivity mediated the persistence of conservation target species in new ponds, suggesting source-sink dynamics in newly established populations. Population density captured this effect well and could be used by practitioners for site selection. Ponds created where there were 2-4 occupied ponds within a radius of ∼0.5 km had >3.5 times higher incidence of target species (median) than isolated ponds. Species had individual preferences regarding pond characteristics, but breeding sites with larger (≥100 m2) total water surface area, that temporarily dried, and that were in surroundings with maximally 50% forest benefitted multiple target species. Pond diversity will foster amphibian diversity at the landscape scale.

Distribution of tiger salamanders in northern Sonora, Mexico: comparison of sampling methods and possible implications for an endangered subspecies

Many aquatic species in the arid USA-Mexico borderlands region are imperiled, but limited information on distributions and threats often hinders management. To provide information on the distribution of the Western Tiger Salamander (Ambystoma mavortium), including the USA-federally endangered Sonoran Tiger Salamander (Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi), we used traditional (seines, dip-nets) and modern (environmental DNA [eDNA]) methods to sample 91 waterbodies in northern Sonora, Mexico, during 2015-2018. The endemic Sonoran Tiger Salamander is threatened by introgressive hybridization and potential replacement by another sub-species of the Western Tiger Salamander, the non-native Barred Tiger Salamander (A. m. mavortium). Based on occupancy models that accounted for imperfect detection, eDNA sampling provided a similar detection probability (0.82 [95% CI: 0.56-0.94]) as seining (0.83 [0.46-0.96]) and much higher detection than dip-netting (0.09 [0.02-0.23]). Volume of water filtered had little effect on detection, possibly because turbid sites had greater densities of salamanders. Salamanders were estimated to occur at 51 sites in 3 river drainages in Sonora. These results indicate tiger salamanders are much more widespread in northern Sonora than previously documented, perhaps aided by changes in land and water management practices. However, because the two subspecies of salamanders cannot be reliably distinguished based on morphology or eDNA methods that are based on mitochondrial DNA, we are uncertain if we detected only native genotypes or if we documented recent invasion of the area by the non-native sub-species. Thus, there is an urgent need for methods to reliably distinguish the subspecies so managers can identify appropriate interventions.

A Bayesian nested patch occupancy model to estimate steelhead movement and abundance

Anthropogenic impacts on riverine systems have, in part, led to management concerns regarding the population status of species using these systems. In an effort to assess the efficacy of restoration actions, and in order to improve monitoring of species of concern, managers have turned to PIT (passive integrated transponder) tag studies with in-stream detectors to monitor movements of tagged individuals throughout river networks. However, quantifying movements in a river network using PIT tag data with incomplete coverage and imperfect detections presents a challenge. We propose a flexible Bayesian analytic framework that models the imperfectly detected movements of tagged individuals in a nested PIT tag array river network. This model structure provides probabilistic estimates of up-stream migration routes for each tagged individual based on a set of underlying nested state variables. These movement estimates can be converted into abundance estimates when an estimate of abundance is available for a location within the river network. We apply the model framework to data from steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Upper Columbia River basin and evaluate model performance (precision/variance of simulated population sizes) as a function of population tagging rates and PIT tag array detection probability densities within the river system using a simulation framework. This simulation framework provides both model validation (precision) and the ability to evaluate expected performance improvements (variance) due to changes in tagging rates or PIT receiver array configuration. We also investigate the impact of different network configurations on model estimates. Results from such investigations can help inform decisions regarding future monitoring and management.

Using environmental DNA and occupancy modelling to estimate rangewide metapopulation dynamics

We demonstrate the power of combining two emergent tools for resolving rangewide metapopulation dynamics. First, we employed environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys to efficiently generate multiseason rangewide site occupancy histories. Second, we developed a novel dynamic, spatial multiscale occupancy model to estimate metapopulation dynamics. The model incorporates spatial relationships, explicitly accounts for non-detection bias and allows direct evaluation of the drivers of extinction and colonization. We applied these tools to examine metapopulation dynamics of endangered tidewater goby, a species endemic to California estuarine habitats. We analysed rangewide eDNA data from 190 geographically isolated sites (813 total water samples) surveyed from 2 years (2016 and 2017). Rangewide estimates of the proportion of sites that were occupied varied little between 2016 (0.52) and 2017 (0.51). However, there was evidence of extinction and colonization dynamics. The probability of extinction of an occupied site (0.106) and probability of colonization of an unoccupied site (0.085) were nearly equal. Stability in site occupancy proportions combined with nearly equal rates of extinction and colonization suggests a dynamic equilibrium between the 2 years surveyed. Assessment of covariate effects revealed that colonization probability increased as the number of occupied neighbouring sites increased and as distance between occupied sites decreased. We show that eDNA surveys can rapidly provide a snapshot of a species distribution over a broad geographic range and, when these surveys are paired with occupancy modelling, can uncover metapopulation dynamics and their drivers.

Linking monitoring and data analysis to predictions and decisions for the range-wide eastern black rail status assessment

The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has initiated a re-envisioned approach for providing decision makers with the best available science and synthesis of that information, called the Species Status Assessment (SSA), for endangered species decision making. The SSA report is a descriptive document that provides decision makers with an assessment of the current and predicted future status of a species. These analyses support all manner of decisions under the US Endangered Species Act, such as listing, reclassification, and recovery planning. Novel scientific analysis and predictive modeling in SSAs could be an important part of rooting conservation decisions in current data and cutting edge analytical and modeling techniques. Here, we describe a novel analysis of available data to assess the current condition of eastern black rail Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis across its range in a dynamic occupancy analysis. We used the results of the analysis to develop a site occupancy projection model where the model parameters (initial occupancy, site persistence, colonization) were linked to environmental covariates, such as land management and land cover change (sea-level rise, development, etc.). We used the projection model to predict future status under multiple sea-level rise and habitat management scenarios. Occupancy probability and site colonization were low in all analysis units, and site persistence was also low, suggesting low resiliency and redundancy currently. Extinction probability was high for all analysis units in all simulated scenarios except one with significant effort to preserve existing habitat, suggesting low future resiliency and redundancy. With the results of these data analyses and predictive models, the USFWS concluded that protections of the Endangered Species Act were warranted for this subspecies.

A stochastic structured metapopulation model to assess recovery scenarios of patchily distributed endangered species: Case study for a Mojave Desert rodent

While metapopulation theory offers tractable means to understand extinction risks for patchily-distributed endangered species, real systems often feature discrepant patch quality and accessibility, complex influences of environmental stochasticity, and regional and temporal autocorrelation. Spatially structured metapopulation models are flexible and can use real data but often at the cost of generality. Particularly as resources for management of such species are often critically limited, endangered species management guided by metapopulation modeling requires incorporation of biological realism. Here we developed a flexible, stochastic spatially structured metapopulation model of the profoundly endangered Amargosa vole, a microtine rodent with an extant population of only a few hundred individuals within 1km² of habitat in the Mojave Desert. Drought and water insecurity are increasing extinction risks considerably. We modelled subpopulation demographics using a Ricker-like model with migration implemented in an incidence function metapopulation model. A set of scenarios was used to assess the effect of anthropogenic stressors or management actions on expected time to extinction (T_e) including: 1) wildland fire, 2) anthropogenically-mediated losses of hydrologic flows, 3) drought, 4) intentional expansion of existing patches into ‘megamarshes’ (i.e. via restoration/enhancement), and 5) additive impacts of multiple influences. In isolation, marshes could be sources or sinks, but spatial context within the full metapopulation including adjacency could alter relative impacts of subpopulations on all other subpopulations. The greatest reductions in persistence occurred in scenarios simulated with impacts from drought in combination with fire or anthropogenically-mediated losses of hydrologic flows. Optimal actions to improve persistence were to prevent distant and smaller marshes from acting as sinks through strategic creation of megamarshes that act as sources of voles and stepping-stones. This research reinforces that management resources expended without guidance from empirically-based modeling can actually harm species’ persistence. This metapopulation-PVA tool could easily be implemented for other patchily-distributed endangered species and allow managers to maximize scarce resources to improve the likelihood of endangered species persistence.

A statistical forecasting approach to metapopulation viability analysis

Conservation of at-risk species is aided by reliable forecasts of the consequences of environmental change and management actions on population viability. Forecasts from conventional population viability analysis (PVA) are made using a two-step procedure in which parameters are estimated, or elicited from expert opinion, and then plugged into a stochastic population model without accounting for parameter uncertainty. Recently developed statistical PVAs differ because forecasts are made conditional on models fitted to empirical data. The statistical forecasting approach allows for uncertainty about parameters, but it has rarely been applied in metapopulation contexts where spatially explicit inference is needed about colonization and extinction dynamics and other forms of stochasticity that influence metapopulation viability. We conducted a statistical metapopulation viability analysis (MPVA) using 11 yr of data on the federally threatened Chiricahua leopard frog (Lithobates chiricahuensis) to forecast responses to landscape heterogeneity, drought, environmental stochasticity, and management. We evaluated several future environmental scenarios and pond restoration options designed to reduce extinction risk. Forecasts over a 50-yr time horizon indicated that metapopulation extinction risk was <4% for all scenarios, but uncertainty was high. Without pond restoration, extinction risk is forecasted to be 3.9% (95% CI 0-37%) by year 2066. Restoring six ponds by increasing their hydroperiod reduced extinction risk to <1% and greatly reduced uncertainty (95% CI 0-2%). Our results suggest that managers can mitigate the impacts of drought and environmental stochasticity on metapopulation viability by maintaining ponds that hold water throughout the year and keeping them free of invasive predators. Our study illustrates the utility of the spatially explicit statistical forecasting approach to MPVA in conservation planning efforts.

Effectiveness of Panama as an intercontinental land bridge for large mammals

Habitat fragmentation is a primary driver of wildlife loss, and establishment of biological corridors is a common strategy to mitigate this problem. A flagship example is the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC), which aims to connect protected forest areas between Mexico and Panama to allow dispersal and gene flow of forest organisms. Because forests across Central America have continued to degrade, the functioning of the MBC has been questioned, but reliable estimates of species occurrence were unavailable. Large mammals are suitable indicators of forest functioning, so we assessed their conservation status across the Isthmus of Panama, the narrowest section of the MBC. We used large-scale camera-trap surveys and hierarchical multispecies occupancy models in a Bayesian framework to estimate the occupancy of 9 medium to large mammals and developed an occupancy-weighted connectivity metric to evaluate species-specific functional connectivity. White-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari), jaguar (Panthera onca), giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and tapir (Tapirus bairdii) had low expected occupancy along the MBC in Panama. Puma (Puma concolor), red brocket deer (Mazama temama), ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), and collared peccary (Pecari tajacu), which are more adaptable, had higher occupancy, even in areas with low forest cover near infrastructure. However, the majority of species were subject to ≥1 gap that was larger than their known dispersal distances, suggesting poor connectivity along the MBC in Panama. Based on our results, forests in Darien, Donoso-Santa Fe, and La Amistad International Park are critical for survival of large terrestrial mammals in Panama and 2 areas need restoration.

The rescue effect and inference from isolation-extinction relationships

The rescue effect in metapopulations hypothesises that less isolated patches are unlikely to go extinct because recolonisation may occur between breeding seasons ('recolonisation rescue'), or immigrants may sufficiently bolster population size to prevent extinction altogether ('demographic rescue'). These mechanisms have rarely been demonstrated directly, and most evidence of the rescue effect is from relationships between isolation and extinction. We determined the frequency of recolonisation rescue for metapopulations of black rails (Laterallus jamaicensis) and Virginia rails (Rallus limicola) from occupancy surveys conducted during and between breeding seasons, and assessed the reliability of inferences about the occurrence of rescue drawn from isolation-extinction relationships, including autologistic isolation measures that corrected for unsurveyed patches and imperfect detection. Recolonisation rescue occurred at expected rates, but was elevated during periods of disturbance that resulted in non-equilibrium metapopulation dynamics. Inferences from extinction-isolation relationships were unreliable, particularly for autologistic measures and for the more vagile Virginia rail.

Mapping species richness using opportunistic samples: a case study on ground-floor bryophyte species richness in the Belgian province of Limburg

In species richness studies, citizen-science surveys where participants make individual decisions regarding sampling strategies provide a cost-effective approach to collect a large amount of data. However, it is unclear to what extent the bias inherent to opportunistically collected samples may invalidate our inferences. Here, we compare spatial predictions of forest ground-floor bryophyte species richness in Limburg (Belgium), based on crowd- and expert-sourced data, where the latter are collected by adhering to a rigorous geographical randomisation and data collection protocol. We develop a log-Gaussian Cox process model to analyse the opportunistic sampling process of the crowd-sourced data and assess its sampling bias. We then fit two geostatistical Poisson models to both data-sets and compare the parameter estimates and species richness predictions. We find that the citizens had a higher propensity for locations that were close to their homes and environmentally more valuable. The estimated effects of ecological predictors and spatial species richness predictions differ strongly between the two geostatistical models. Unknown inconsistencies in the sampling process, such as unreported observer’s effort, and the lack of a hypothesis-driven study protocol can lead to the occurrence of multiple sources of sampling bias, making it difficult, if not impossible, to provide reliable inferences.

Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatiotemporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 yr of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from all sites in one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site-level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high-elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate-related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid-land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.

The role of spatial structure in the collapse of regional metapopulations

Many wildlife populations are either naturally, or as a result of human land use, patchily distributed in space. The degree of fragmentation-specifically the remaining patch sizes and habitat configuration-is an important part of population dynamics. Demographic stochasticity is also likely to play an important role in patchy habitats that host small local populations. We develop a simulation model to evaluate the significance of demographic stochasticity and the role fragmentation plays in the determination of population dynamics and the risk of extinction of populations on habitat patches. Our model is formulated as a Markov-chain stochastic process on a finite, spatially explicit array of patches in which probability of successful dispersal is a function of interpatch distance. Unlike past work, we explicitly model local population dynamics and examine how these scale up to the entire population. As a test case, we apply the model to the American pika (Ochotona princeps) population living on the ore dumps in the ghost mining town of Bodie, California. This population has been studied nearly continuously for over four decades and has been of conservation concern as the southern half of the population declined precipitously beginning in 1989. Our model suggests that both the specific configuration of habitat and landscape heterogeneity are necessary and sufficient predictors of the eventual extinction of the southern constellation of patches. This example has important implications, as it suggests that fragmentation alone can lead to regional extinctions within metapopulations.

Network Analyses Can Advance Above-Belowground Ecology

An understanding of above-belowground (AG-BG) ecology is important for evaluating how plant interactions with enemies, symbionts, and decomposers affect species diversity and will respond to global changes. However, research questions and experiments often focus on only a limited number of interactions, creating an incomplete picture of how entire communities may be involved in AG-BG community ecology. Therefore, a pressing challenge is to formulate hypotheses of AG-BG interactions when considering communities in their full complexity. Here we discuss how network analyses can be a powerful tool to progress AG-BG research, link across scales from individual to community and ecosystem, visualize community interactions between the two (AG and BG) subsystems, and develop testable hypotheses.

Abundance-based detectability in a spatially-explicit metapopulation: a case study on a vulnerable beetle species in hollow trees

In many fragmented habitats, the detectability of a population in a habitat patch closely depends on the local abundance of individuals. However, metapopulation studies rarely connect abundance and detectability. We propose a framework for using abundance-based estimates of detectability in the analysis of a spatially-explicit stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM). We illustrate our approach with the example of Tenebrio opacus, a beetle inhabiting hollows in old trees, and have based it on a 6-year monitoring programme of adult beetles in an area harbouring a high density of old oaks. We validated our abundance-based methodology by showing that the estimates of detectability were positively and significantly correlated with those obtained from presence/absence data (Pearson r = 0.54, p < 2E−16) in our study system. We further showed that the height of the hollow on the tree and the area of its entrance hole, the living status and girth of the host tree, and the time of survey significantly affected the detectability of beetle populations. Median detectability was 51% for one survey. The SPOM analysis revealed a high but heterogeneous extinction risk among trees, suggesting a metapopulation dynamics between the “classic” and “mainland–island” paradigms. However, it also indicated unexplained beetle colonization of trees in our study, despite the fact that we included limited detectability in our estimation procedure. This may have been due to the cryptic larval stage of T. opacus and may thus invalidate the use of a classic SPOM in our study system.

Increasing connectivity between metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology

Metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology aim to understand how spatial structure influences ecological processes, yet these disciplines address the problem using fundamentally different modeling approaches. Metapopulation models describe how the spatial distribution of patches affects colonization and extinction, but often do not account for the heterogeneity in the landscape between patches. Models in landscape ecology use detailed descriptions of landscape structure, but often without considering colonization and extinction dynamics. We present a novel spatially explicit modeling framework for narrowing the divide between these disciplines to advance understanding of the effects of landscape structure on metapopulation dynamics. Unlike previous efforts, this framework allows for statistical inference on landscape resistance to colonization using empirical data. We demonstrate the approach using 11 yr of data on a threatened amphibian in a desert ecosystem. Occupancy data for Lithobates chiricahuensis (Chiricahua leopard frog) were collected on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), Arizona, USA from 2007 to 2017 following a reintroduction in 2003. Results indicated that colonization dynamics were influenced by both patch characteristics and landscape structure. Landscape resistance increased with increasing elevation and distance to the nearest streambed. Colonization rate was also influenced by patch quality, with semi-permanent and permanent ponds contributing substantially more to the colonization of neighboring ponds relative to intermittent ponds. Ponds that only hold water intermittently also had the highest extinction rate. Our modeling framework can be widely applied to understand metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes, particularly in systems in which the environment between habitat patches influences the colonization process.

A new parameterization for integrated population models to document amphibian reintroductions

Managers are increasingly implementing reintroduction programs as part of a global effort to alleviate amphibian declines. Given uncertainty in factors affecting populations and a need to make recurring decisions to achieve objectives, adaptive management is a useful component of these efforts. A major impediment to the estimation of demographic rates often used to parameterize and refine decision-support models is that life-stage-specific monitoring data are frequently sparse for amphibians. We developed a new parameterization for integrated population models to match the ecology of amphibians and capitalize on relatively inexpensive monitoring data to document amphibian reintroductions. We evaluate the capability of this model by fitting it to Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) monitoring data collected from 2007 to 2014 following their reintroduction within the Klamath Basin, Oregon, USA. The number of egg masses encountered and the estimated adult and metamorph abundances generally increased following reintroduction. We found that survival probability from egg to metamorph ranged from 0.01 in 2008 to 0.09 in 2009 and was not related to minimum spring temperatures, metamorph survival probability ranged from 0.13 in 2010-2011 to 0.86 in 2012-2013 and was positively related to mean monthly temperatures (logit-scale slope = 2.37), adult survival probability was lower for founders (0.40) than individuals recruited after reintroduction (0.56), and the mean number of egg masses per adult female was 0.74. Our study is the first to test hypotheses concerning Oregon spotted frog egg-to-metamorph and metamorph-to-adult transition probabilities in the wild and document their response at multiple life stages following reintroduction. Furthermore, we provide an example to illustrate how the structure of our integrated population model serves as a useful foundation for amphibian decision-support models within adaptive management programs. The integration of multiple, but related, data sets has an advantage of being able to estimate complex ecological relationships across multiple life stages, offering a modeling framework that accommodates uncertainty, enforces parsimony, and ensures all model parameters can be confronted with monitoring data.

A Model to Inform Management Actions as a Response to Chytridiomycosis-Associated Decline

Decision-analytic models provide forecasts of how systems of interest will respond to management. These models can be parameterized using empirical data, but sometimes require information elicited from experts. When evaluating the effects of disease in species translocation programs, expert judgment is likely to play a role because complete empirical information will rarely be available. We illustrate development of a decision-analytic model built to inform decision-making regarding translocations and other management actions for the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas), a species with declines linked to chytridiomycosis caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Using the model, we explored the management implications of major uncertainties in this system, including whether there is a genetic basis for resistance to pathogenic infection by Bd, how translocation can best be implemented, and the effectiveness of efforts to reduce the spread of Bd. Our modeling exercise suggested that while selection for resistance to pathogenic infection by Bd could increase numbers of sites occupied by toads, and translocations could increase the rate of toad recovery, efforts to reduce the spread of Bd may have little effect. We emphasize the need to continue developing and parameterizing models necessary to assess management actions for combating chytridiomycosis-associated declines.

Spatial and temporal movements in Pyrenean bearded vultures (Gypaetus barbatus): Integrating movement ecology into conservation practice

Understanding the movement of threatened species is important if we are to optimize management and conservation actions. Here, we describe the age and sex specific spatial and temporal ranging patterns of 19 bearded vultures Gypaetus barbatus tracked with GPS technology. Our findings suggest that spatial asymmetries are a consequence of breeding status and age-classes. Territorial individuals exploited home ranges of about 50 km², while non-territorial birds used areas of around 10 000 km² (with no seasonal differences). Mean daily movements differed between territorial (23.8 km) and non-territorial birds (46.1 km), and differences were also found between sexes in non-territorial birds. Daily maximum distances travelled per day also differed between territorial (8.2 km) and non-territorial individuals (26.5 km). Territorial females moved greater distances (12 km) than males (6.6 km). Taking into account high-use core areas (K20), Supplementary Feeding Sites (SFS) do not seem to play an important role in the use of space by bearded vultures. For non-territorial and territorial individuals, 54% and 46% of their home ranges (K90), respectively, were outside protected areas. Our findings will help develop guidelines for establishing priority areas based on spatial use, and also optimize management and conservation actions for this threatened species.