Furloughing

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment and inequalities: a systematic review of international evidence and critical appraisal of statistical methods

AIMS

To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on individual labour market outcomes and how these vary over time and between different groups of individuals.

METHODS

Searches were conducted using Medline, Scopus and EconLit. Grey literature searches used Google Scholar and Econpapers. Study quality was assessed using the risk of bias in non-randomised studies of exposure tool (ROBINS-E), accompanied by a directed acyclic graph (DAG) to identify relevant mediators, moderators and confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 85 studies (77 peer-reviewed articles, 8 working papers) were included. The ROBINS-E showed that the overall risk of bias varied between studies from low (n = 14), moderate (n = 56) to serious (n = 15). Studies also varied in terms of outcome measures, study designs and the academic disciplines of researchers. Generally, studies using data collected before and during the pandemic showed large negative effects on employment, working hours and income. Studies that assessed moderators (e.g. by industry, occupation, age, gender, race and country of birth) indicated the pandemic has likely worsened pre-existing disparities in health and work. Generally, women, less educated, non-whites and young workers were affected the most, perhaps due to their jobs involving high levels of personal contact (e.g. hospitality, sales and entertainment) and being less amenable to remote working. The DAG highlighted methodological challenges in drawing robust inferences about COVID-19's impact on employment, including the lack of an unexposed control group.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 health crisis caused unanticipated and unprecedented changes to employment opportunities around the world, with potential long-term health consequences. Further research should investigate the longer-term impact of COVID-19, with greater attention given to low- and middle-income countries. Our study provides guidance on the design and critical appraisal of future studies.

Effects of stay-at-home orders on skill requirements in vacancy postings

The COVID-19 pandemic and containment policies have had profound economic impacts on the labor market. Stay-at-home orders (SAHOs) implemented across most of the United States changed the way of people worked. In this paper, we quantify the effect of SAHO durations on skill demands to study how firms adjust labor demand within occupation. We use skill requirement information from the 2018 to 2021 online job vacancy posting data from Burning Glass Technologies, exploit the spatial variations in the SAHO duration, and use instrumental variables to correct for the endogeneity in the policy duration related to local social and economic factors. We find that policy durations have persistent impacts on the labor demand after restrictions are lifted. Longer SAHOs motivate management style transformation from people-oriented to operation-oriented by requiring more of operational and administrative skills and less of personality and people management skills to carry out standard workflows. SAHOs also change the focus of interpersonal skill demands from specific customer services to general communication such as social and writing skills. SAHOs more thoroughly affect occupations with partial work-from-home capacity. The evidence suggests SAHOs change management structure and communication in firms.

Search and reallocation in the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the UK

The impact of the pandemic on the UK labour market has been extremely heterogeneous across occupations and industries. Using novel data on job search, we document how individuals adjust their job search in response to changing employment patterns across occupations and industries in the UK. We observe that workers changed their search direction in favour of expanding occupations and industries as the pandemic developed. However, non-employed workers are more attached to their previous occupations and workers with low education are more likely to target declining occupations. We also observe workers from declining occupations making fewer transitions to expanding occupations than those who start in expanding occupations, despite targeting these jobs relatively frequently. This suggests those at the margins of the labour market may be least able to escape occupations that declined during the pandemic.

The role of children and work-from-home in gender labor market asymmetries: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America

Asymmetry in childcare responsibilities is one of the main reasons behind gender gaps in the labor market. In that context, the ability to work from home may alleviate the hindrances of women with children to participate in the labor market. We study these issues in Latin America, a region with wide gender gaps, in the framework of a major shock that severely affected employment: the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we estimate models of job loss exploiting microdata from the World Bank's High-Frequency Phone Surveys conducted immediately after the onset of the pandemic. We find that the mitigating effect of working from home on the severity of job losses was especially relevant for women with children. The results are consistent with a plausible mechanism: due to the traditional distribution of childcare responsibilities within the household, women with children were more likely to stay home during school closures, and therefore the ability to work from home was crucial for them to keep their jobs.

International consensus statement on challenges for women in cardiovascular practice and research in the COVID-19 era

The challenges to academic and professional development and career advancement of women in cardiology (WIC), imposed by the pandemic, not only impinge the female cardiologists' "leaky pipeline" but also make the "leakiness" more obvious. This consensus document aims to highlight the pandemic challenges WIC face, raise awareness of the gender equity gap, and propose mitigating actionable solutions derived from the data and experiences of an international group of female cardiovascular clinicians and researchers. This changing landscape has led to the need for highly specialized cardiologists who may have additional training in critical care, imaging, advanced heart failure, or interventional cardiology. Although women account for most medical school graduates, the number of WIC, particularly in mentioned sub-specialties, remains low. Moreover, women have been more affected by systemic issues within these challenging work environments, limiting their professional progression, career advancement, and economic potential. Therefore, it is imperative that tangible action points be noted and undertaken to ensure the representation of women in leadership, advocacy, and decision-making, and increase diversity in academia. Strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of the pandemic need to be taken during this COVID-19 pandemic to ensure WIC have a place in the field of Cardiology.

Public finance in the era of the COVID-19 crisis

The COVID-19 crisis poses new policy challenges and has spurred new research agendas in public economics. In this article, we selectively reflect on how the field of public economics has been shaped by the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss several areas where more research is necessary. We highlight major changes and inequalities in the labor market and K-12 education, in addition to discussing how technological change creates new challenges for the taxation of income and consumption. We discuss various policy responses to these challenges and the role of fiscal federalism in the context of worldwide crises. Finally, we summarize the key issues discussed at the 2021 International Institute of Public Finance Congress and the papers published in this special issue.

A Retrospective Study on the Impact of COVID-19 on Emergency General Surgery

Background

The coronavirus pandemic has caused global disruption to all aspects of life. This disturbance has been most notable in the medical world. Political, societal, medical, and behavioral alterations have forced emergency surgical practices to adapt. This study investigated the impact of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) at a busy surgical center.

Methodology

This is a retrospective observational study. Three study periods were analyzed: pre-COVID, first wave, and second wave. Data were collected on referrals, diagnoses, investigations, management pathways, outcomes, patient behavior, and consultant practice. A one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA test) was used for the analysis of parametric data and the Mann-Whitney U test for non-parametric data.

Results

Declining numbers of patients presented across the three periods. There was a severe disruption in performing emergency general surgeries during the first wave, propagated by alterations in clinical decision-making, as well as fluctuations in societal and patient behavior. Despite the effects of the second wave being significantly more profound in terms of hospitalization and COVID-related mortality, a paradoxical, gradual return to the norm was noted, which was seen in referral pathways, imaging decisions, and management strategies.

Conclusion

Our data is suggestive of society, both within and outside the medical sphere, adjusting to life with COVID-19.

Examining harmful impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic and school closures on parents and carers in the United Kingdom: A rapid review

Background

As a result of the COVID‐19 pandemic, school closures meant that for many households, home and school environments became intertwined. Parents and carers found themselves taking on the role as de‐facto educators, as well as balancing working from home and caring for additional members of the household. Understanding the full extent of the effects incurred by parents and carers during school closures is vital to identifying and supporting vulnerable families. This rapid review aimed to appraise the available evidence on the potential effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on UK parents and carers.

Methods

Searches for academic literature were conducted using Proquest Central, Scopus, and Google Scholar between 21st and 28th April 2021 using search terms describing “parents and carers”, “COVID‐19” and the “UK”. Additional literature was identified on relevant parents and carers' organisations websites including charity reports.

Results

Thirty‐two articles were found relating to harms affecting parents and carers in the UK High levels of psychological distress, including anxiety and depression, were consistently identified in the general parent population, and especially in parents caring for a child with special educational needs and/or neurodevelopmental disorders (SEN/ND). Charity reports indicated that many parents, especially those from an ethnic minority background and kinship carers, were worse off financially and with food insecurities, whereas empirical evidence showed that mothers were more likely to initiate furlough for themselves compared with fathers or childless women. Domestic abuse support services also reported a sharp rise in demand during lockdown restrictions, and practitioners reported an increase in child and adolescent violence towards parents.

Conclusions

Given the known impacts of parental stress, mental health problems, domestic violence and financial hardship on children's development, it is critical that these findings are taken into account in case of future pandemics to minimise harms both to parents and their families.

Mental and social wellbeing and the UK coronavirus job retention scheme: Evidence from nine longitudinal studies

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to major economic disruptions. In March 2020, the UK implemented the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme - known as furlough - to minimize the impact of job losses. We investigate associations between change in employment status and mental and social wellbeing during the early stages of the pandemic.

METHODS

Data were from 25,670 respondents, aged 17-66, across nine UK longitudinal studies. Furlough and other employment changes were defined using employment status pre-pandemic and during the first lockdown (April-June 2020). Mental and social wellbeing outcomes included psychological distress, life satisfaction, self-rated health, social contact, and loneliness. Study-specific modified Poisson regression estimates, adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics and pre-pandemic mental and social wellbeing, were pooled using meta-analysis. Associations were also stratified by sex, age, education, and household composition.

RESULTS

Compared to those who remained working, furloughed workers were at greater risk of psychological distress (adjusted risk ratio, ARR = 1.12; 95%CI: 0.97, 1.29), low life satisfaction (ARR = 1.14; 95%CI: 1.07, 1.22), loneliness (ARR = 1.12; 95%CI: 1.01, 1.23), and poor self-rated health (ARR = 1.26; 95%CI: 1.05, 1.50). Nevertheless, compared to furloughed workers, those who became unemployed had greater risk of psychological distress (ARR = 1.30; 95%CI: 1.12, 1.52), low life satisfaction (ARR = 1.16; 95%CI: 0.98, 1.38), and loneliness (ARR = 1.67; 95%CI: 1.08, 2.59). Effects were not uniform across all sub-groups.

CONCLUSIONS

During the early stages of the pandemic, those furloughed had increased risk of poor mental and social wellbeing, but furloughed workers fared better than those who became unemployed, suggesting that furlough may have partly mitigated poorer outcomes.

The UK Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and diet, physical activity, and sleep during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from eight longitudinal population surveys

BACKGROUND

In March 2020, the UK implemented the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (furlough) to minimise job losses. Our aim was to investigate associations between furlough and diet, physical activity, and sleep during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We analysed data on 25,092 participants aged 16-66 years from eight UK longitudinal studies. Changes in employment, including being furloughed, were based on employment status before and during the first lockdown. Health behaviours included fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and sleep. Study-specific estimates obtained using modified Poisson regression, adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics and pre-pandemic health and health behaviours, were statistically pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Associations were also stratified by sex, age, and education.

RESULTS

Across studies, between 8 and 25% of participants were furloughed. Compared to those who remained working, furloughed workers were slightly less likely to be physically inactive (RR = 0.85; [95% CI 0.75-0.97]; I 2 = 59%) and did not differ overall with respect to low fruit and vegetable consumption or atypical sleep, although findings for sleep were heterogenous (I 2 = 85%). In stratified analyses, furlough was associated with lower fruit and vegetable consumption among males (RR = 1.11; [1.01-1.22]; I 2 = 0%) but not females (RR = 0.84; [0.68-1.04]; I 2 = 65%). Considering changes in quantity, furloughed workers were more likely than those who remained working to report increases in fruit and vegetable consumption, exercise, and hours of sleep.

CONCLUSIONS

Those furloughed exhibited similar health behaviours to those who remained in employment during the initial stages of the pandemic. There was little evidence to suggest that adoption of such social protection policies in the post-pandemic recovery period and during future economic crises had adverse effects on population health behaviours.

A shift in women's health? Older workers' self-reported health and employment settings during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

The first wave of COVID-19 has had a massive impact on work arrangements settings in many European countries with potential effects on health that are likely to vary across gender.

METHODS

Focusing on the workforce aged 50 and over in 27 European countries using data from SHARE wave 8 (N = 11,221), the study applies a generalized logit mixed-effects model to assess the relationship between negative and positive change in self-reported health since the start of the pandemic and change in employment settings using an interaction effect between gender and employment arrangements to distinguish their specific association by gender after controlling for socio-economic covariates and multicollinearity.

RESULTS

Female respondents have higher probabilities to declare a positive health when working fully or partially from home or when temporarily and permanently unemployed. However, introducing the main effect of gender exacerbates discrepancies and such benefits fade away. Differences across countries do not significantly change the estimates.

CONCLUSION

The benefits of work arrangements to improve women's health during the first wave of COVID-19 have not compensated the negative effect of gender discrepancies exacerbated by the pandemic to the extent that employment arrangements have no role, or just a negative impact, in modulating them.

Working from home and the explosion of enduring divides: income, employment and safety risks

Why are there so many non-teleworkable occupations? Is teleworking only a matter of ICT usage or does it also reflect the division of labour and the underlying hierarchical layers inside organizations? What does it happen to those workers not able to telework in terms of socio-economic risks, and how does the gender dimension interact with risk stratification? Hereby, we intend to shed light on these questions using a detailed integrated dataset at individual and occupational level (Indagine Campionaria delle Professioni, Indagine delle Forze di Lavoro and Inail archive) which provides information on different nature of risks (income, employment and safety). Our results entail that, first, class attributes, intended as execution of tasks, degrees of autonomy in doing the job, layers of the occupational categories, strongly influence the chance of working from home; second, those individuals who are not able to perform their work remotely are more exposed to transition to unemployment, to earn low wages, and to safety and health risks; third, being woman and employed with a temporary contract significantly amplify risk stratification.

COVID-19 and the labour market outcomes of disabled people in the UK

The economic impact of COVID-19 has exacerbated inequalities in society, but disability has been neglected. This paper contributes to this knowledge gap by providing a comprehensive analysis of the differential labour market impact of COVID-19 by disability in the UK. Using data from the Labour Force Survey before and during the pandemic it estimates disability gaps in pre-pandemic risk factors, as well as changes in labour market inequality nearly one year on. Disabled workers are found to face higher COVID-19-related economic and health risks, including being more likely to work in ‘shutdown’ industries, and in occupations with greater proximity to others and exposure to disease. However, established measures of inequality, including the disability employment and pay gap suggest limited impact of COVID-19 in 2020. Nevertheless, the increase in the probability of being temporarily away from work, even among otherwise comparable workers, is 40% higher for disabled workers and consistent with disproportionate use of the government's job retention scheme. While the reasons for this are likely to be complex, there is a risk that it will contribute to future disability-related labour market inequality.

COVID‐19 and the uncertain future of HRM: Furlough, job retention and reform

The article argues that job retention should be a central aim and practice of human resource management (HRM). Set against the global COVID‐19 crisis, theoretical insights are drawn from strategic HRM planning and the economics of ‘labour hoarding’ to consider the potential benefits of workforce furloughing. Furlough has been supported in the UK by the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, which represents a novel, but temporary, state‐led shift from the UK's market‐orientated restructuring regime. We argue that the withdrawal of state‐financed furlough may mean a quick return in UK firms to the management of redundancy. Yet, if the crisis is to generate any benefit it must create the conditions for a more collaborative HRM that delivers for workers as well as business, with job retention as a core priority. While change in this direction will mean confronting deep‐rooted challenges—such as job security, good work and worker voice—such change remains vital in creating better and healthier workplaces.

Subsidising the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the UK’S Eat-Out-to-Help-Out Scheme*

This paper documents that a large-scale government subsidy aimed at encouraging people to eat out in restaurants in the wake of the first 2020 COVID-19 wave in the United Kingdom has had a significant causal impact on new cases, accelerating the subsequent second COVID-19 wave. The scheme subsidised 50% off the cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks for an unlimited number of visits in participating restaurants on Mondays–Wednesdays from 3–31 August 2020. Areas with higher take-up saw both a notable increase in new COVID-19 infection clusters within a week of the scheme starting and a deceleration in infections within two weeks of the program ending. Similarly, areas that exhibited notable rainfall during the prime lunch and dinner hours on the days the scheme was active record lower infection incidence—a pattern that is also measurable in mobility data—and non-detectable on days during which the discount was not available or for rainfall outside the core lunch and dinner hours.

The impact of COVID-19 on provision of UK audiology services & on attitudes towards delivery of telehealth services

OBJECTIVE

To (i) identify the impact of COVID-19 on provision of UK audiology services across sectors (ii) compare teleaudiology service provision between private and public sectors before and after the introduction of restrictions and (iii) identify barriers to teleaudiology delivery amongst UK hearing care professionals in both sectors.

DESIGN

A mixed-methods cross-sectional survey study design. Responses to the structured questionnaire were analysed using descriptive and non-parametric statistics.

STUDY SAMPLE

UK based hearing care professionals (HCP) (n = 323) completed the survey (218 public sector; 89 private sector).

RESULTS

Changes in working patterns varied greatly between different sectors, with 61% of national employed and 26% of independent HCPs being furloughed, compared with 1% in the public sector. Use of telehealth was under-utilised across all sectors and groups in UK hearing healthcare, despite 92% of public and 75% of private HCPs reporting feeling comfortable conducting remote consultations.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights a variation in teleaudiology adoption and key barriers across sector in the UK. A collaborative approach between hearing device manufacturers, research centres, HCPs and professional bodies is required for the creation of targeted guidance and training materials according to sector, to support clinicians in effective teleaudiology provision.