Ancestry, ethnicity, and race: explaining inequalities in cardiometabolic disease

Population differences in cardiometabolic disease remain unexplained. Misleading assumptions over genetic explanations are partly due to terminology used to distinguish populations, specifically ancestry, race, and ethnicity. These terms differentially implicate environmental and biological causal pathways, which should inform their use. Genetic variation alone accounts for a limited fraction of population differences in cardiometabolic disease. Research effort should focus on societally driven, lifelong environmental determinants of population differences in disease. Rather than pursuing population stratifiers to personalize medicine, we advocate removing socioeconomic barriers to receipt of and adherence to healthcare interventions, which will have markedly greater impact on improving cardiometabolic outcomes. This requires multidisciplinary collaboration and public and policymaker engagement to address inequalities driven by society rather than biology per se.

APOE ε4 carriage associates with improved myocardial performance from adolescence to older age

BACKGROUND

Although APOE ε4 allele carriage confers a risk for coronary artery disease, its persistence in humans might be explained by certain survival advantages (antagonistic pleiotropy).

METHODS

Combining data from ~ 37,000 persons from three older age British cohorts (1946 National Survey of Health and Development [NSHD], Southall and Brent Revised [SABRE], and UK Biobank) and one younger age cohort (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children [ALSPAC]), we explored whether APOE ε4 carriage associates with beneficial or unfavorable left ventricular (LV) structural and functional metrics by echocardiography and cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR).

RESULTS

Compared to the non-APOE ε4 group, APOE ε4 carriers had similar cardiac phenotypes in terms of LV ejection fraction, E/e', posterior wall and interventricular septal thickness, and LV mass. However, they had improved myocardial performance resulting in greater LV stroke volume generation per 1 mL of myocardium (higher myocardial contraction fraction). In NSHD (n = 1467) and SABRE (n = 1187), ε4 carriers had a 4% higher MCF (95% CI 1-7%, p = 0.016) using echocardiography. Using CMR data, in UK Biobank (n = 32,972), ε4 carriers had a 1% higher MCF 95% (CI 0-1%, p = 0.020) with a dose-response relationship based on the number of ε4 alleles. In addition, UK Biobank ε4 carriers also had more favorable radial and longitudinal strain rates compared to non APOE ε4 carriers. In ALSPAC (n = 1397), APOE ε4 carriers aged < 24 years had a 2% higher MCF (95% CI 0-5%, p = 0.059).

CONCLUSIONS

By triangulating results in four independent cohorts, across imaging modalities (echocardiography and CMR), and in ~ 37,000 individuals, our results point towards an association between ε4 carriage and improved cardiac performance in terms of LV MCF. This potentially favorable cardiac phenotype adds to the growing number of reported survival advantages attributed to the pleiotropic effects APOE ε4 carriage that might collectively explain its persistence in human populations.

Long COVID and financial outcomes: evidence from four longitudinal population surveys

BACKGROUND

Long-term sequelae of COVID-19 (long COVID) include muscle weakness, fatigue, breathing difficulties and sleep disturbance over weeks or months. Using UK longitudinal data, we assessed the relationship between long COVID and financial disruption.

METHODS

We estimated associations between long COVID (derived using self-reported length of COVID-19 symptoms) and measures of financial disruption (subjective financial well-being, new benefit claims, changes in household income) by analysing data from four longitudinal population studies, gathered during the first year of the pandemic. We employed modified Poisson regression in a pooled analysis of the four cohorts adjusting for a range of potential confounders, including pre-pandemic (pre-long COVID) factors.

RESULTS

Among the 20 112 observations across four population surveys, 13% reported having COVID-19 with symptoms that impeded their ability to function normally-10.7% had such symptoms for <4 weeks (acute COVID-19), 1.2% had such symptoms for 4-12 weeks (ongoing symptomatic COVID-19) and 0.6% had such symptoms for >12 weeks (post-COVID-19 syndrome). We found that post-COVID-19 syndrome was associated with worse subjective financial well-being (adjusted relative risk ratios (aRRRs)=1.57, 95% CI=1.25, 1.96) and new benefit claims (aRRR=1.79, CI=1.27, 2.53). Associations were broadly similar across sexes and education levels. These results were not meaningfully altered when scaled to represent the population by age.

CONCLUSIONS

Long COVID was associated with financial disruption in the UK. If our findings reflect causal effects, extending employment protection and financial support to people with long COVID may be warranted.

Dementias Platform UK: Bringing genetics into life

INTRODUCTION

The Dementias Platform UK (DPUK) Data Portal is a data repository bringing together a wide range of cohorts. Neurodegenerative dementias are a group of diseases with highly heterogeneous pathology and an overlapping genetic component that is poorly understood. The DPUK collection of independent cohorts can facilitate research in neurodegeneration by combining their genetic and phenotypic data.

METHODS

For genetic data processing, pipelines were generated to perform quality control analysis, genetic imputation, and polygenic risk score (PRS) derivation with six genome-wide association studies of neurodegenerative diseases. Pipelines were applied to five cohorts.

DISCUSSION

The data processing pipelines, research-ready imputed genetic data, and PRS scores are now available on the DPUK platform and can be accessed upon request though the DPUK application process. Harmonizing genome-wide data for multiple datasets increases scientific opportunity and allows the wider research community to access and process data at scale and pace.

Impact of vaccination on the association of COVID-19 with cardiovascular diseases: An OpenSAFELY cohort study

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 is associated with an increased risk of arterial and venous thrombotic events, but the implications of vaccination for this increased risk are uncertain. With the approval of NHS England, we quantified associations between COVID-19 diagnosis and cardiovascular diseases in different vaccination and variant eras using linked electronic health records for ~40% of the English population. We defined a 'pre-vaccination' cohort (18,210,937 people) in the wild-type/Alpha variant eras (January 2020-June 2021), and 'vaccinated' and 'unvaccinated' cohorts (13,572,399 and 3,161,485 people respectively) in the Delta variant era (June-December 2021). We showed that the incidence of each arterial thrombotic, venous thrombotic and other cardiovascular outcomes was substantially elevated during weeks 1-4 after COVID-19, compared with before or without COVID-19, but less markedly elevated in time periods beyond week 4. Hazard ratios were higher after hospitalised than non-hospitalised COVID-19 and higher in the pre-vaccination and unvaccinated cohorts than the vaccinated cohort. COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of cardiovascular events after COVID-19 infection. People who had COVID-19 before or without being vaccinated are at higher risk of cardiovascular events for at least two years.

Mechanisms underlying exercise intolerance in long COVID: An accumulation of multisystem dysfunction

The pathogenesis of exercise intolerance and persistent fatigue which can follow an infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus ("long COVID") is not fully understood. Cases were recruited from a long COVID clinic (N = 32; 44 ± 12 years; 10 (31%) men), and age-/sex-matched healthy controls (HC) (N = 19; 40 ± 13 years; 6 (32%) men) from University College London staff and students. We assessed exercise performance, lung and cardiac function, vascular health, skeletal muscle oxidative capacity, and autonomic nervous system (ANS) function. Key outcome measures for each physiological system were compared between groups using potential outcome means (95% confidence intervals) adjusted for potential confounders. Long COVID participant outcomes were compared to normative values. When compared to HC, cases exhibited reduced oxygen uptake efficiency slope (1847 (1679, 2016) vs. 2176 (1978, 2373) mL/min, p = 0.002) and anaerobic threshold (13.2 (12.2, 14.3) vs. 15.6 (14.4, 17.2) mL/kg/min, p < 0.001), and lower oxidative capacity, measured using near infrared spectroscopy (τ: 38.7 (31.9, 45.6) vs. 24.6 (19.1, 30.1) s, p = 0.001). In cases, ANS measures fell below normal limits in 39%. Long COVID is associated with reduced measures of exercise performance and skeletal muscle oxidative capacity in the absence of evidence of microvascular dysfunction, suggesting mitochondrial pathology. There was evidence of attendant ANS dysregulation in a significant proportion. These multisystem factors might contribute to impaired exercise tolerance in long COVID sufferers.

Updating the study protocol: Insight 46 - a longitudinal neuroscience sub-study of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development - phases 2 and 3

BACKGROUND

Although age is the biggest known risk factor for dementia, there remains uncertainty about other factors over the life course that contribute to a person's risk for cognitive decline later in life. Furthermore, the pathological processes leading to dementia are not fully understood. The main goals of Insight 46-a multi-phase longitudinal observational study-are to collect detailed cognitive, neurological, physical, cardiovascular, and sensory data; to combine those data with genetic and life-course information collected from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; 1946 British birth cohort); and thereby contribute to a better understanding of healthy ageing and dementia.

METHODS/DESIGN

Phase 1 of Insight 46 (2015-2018) involved the recruitment of 502 members of the NSHD (median age = 70.7 years; 49% female) and has been described in detail by Lane and Parker et al. 2017. The present paper describes phase 2 (2018-2021) and phase 3 (2021-ongoing). Of the 502 phase 1 study members who were invited to a phase 2 research visit, 413 were willing to return for a clinic visit in London and 29 participated in a remote research assessment due to COVID-19 restrictions. Phase 3 aims to recruit 250 study members who previously participated in both phases 1 and 2 of Insight 46 (providing a third data time point) and 500 additional members of the NSHD who have not previously participated in Insight 46.

DISCUSSION

The NSHD is the oldest and longest continuously running British birth cohort. Members of the NSHD are now at a critical point in their lives for us to investigate successful ageing and key age-related brain morbidities. Data collected from Insight 46 have the potential to greatly contribute to and impact the field of healthy ageing and dementia by combining unique life course data with longitudinal multiparametric clinical, imaging, and biomarker measurements. Further protocol enhancements are planned, including in-home sleep measurements and the engagement of participants through remote online cognitive testing. Data collected are and will continue to be made available to the scientific community.

Female sex is a risk factor for painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy: the EURODIAB prospective diabetes complications study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

While the risk factors for diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) are now well recognised, the risk factors for painful DPN remain unknown. We performed analysis of the EURODIAB Prospective Complications Study data to elucidate the incidence and risk factors of painful DPN.

METHODS

The EURODIAB Prospective Complications Study recruited 3250 participants with type 1 diabetes who were followed up for 7.3±0.6 (mean ± SD) years. To evaluate DPN, a standardised protocol was used, including clinical assessment, quantitative sensory testing and autonomic function tests. Painful DPN (defined as painful neuropathic symptoms in the legs in participants with confirmed DPN) was assessed at baseline and follow-up.

RESULTS

At baseline, 234 (25.2%) out of 927 participants with DPN had painful DPN. At follow-up, incident DPN developed in 276 (23.5%) of 1172 participants. Of these, 41 (14.9%) had incident painful DPN. Most of the participants who developed incident painful DPN were female (73% vs 48% painless DPN p=0.003) and this remained significant after adjustment for duration of diabetes and HbA1c (OR 2.69 [95% CI 1.41, 6.23], p=0.004). The proportion of participants with macro- or microalbuminuria was lower in those with painful DPN compared with painless DPN (15% vs 34%, p=0.02), and this association remained after adjusting for HbA1c, diabetes duration and sex (p=0.03).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

In this first prospective study to investigate the risk factors for painful DPN, we definitively demonstrate that female sex is a risk factor for painful DPN. Additionally, there is less evidence of diabetic nephropathy in incident painful, compared with painless, DPN. Thus, painful DPN is not driven by cardiometabolic factors traditionally associated with microvascular disease. Sex differences may therefore play an important role in the pathophysiology of neuropathic pain in diabetes. Future studies need to look at psychosocial, genetic and other factors in the development of painful DPN.

Technical development and feasibility of a reusable vest to integrate cardiovascular magnetic resonance with electrocardiographic imaging

BACKGROUND

Electrocardiographic imaging (ECGI) generates electrophysiological (EP) biomarkers while cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging provides data about myocardial structure, function and tissue substrate. Combining this information in one examination is desirable but requires an affordable, reusable, and high-throughput solution. We therefore developed the CMR-ECGI vest and carried out this technical development study to assess its feasibility and repeatability in vivo.

METHODS

CMR was prospectively performed at 3T on participants after collecting surface potentials using the locally designed and fabricated 256-lead ECGI vest. Epicardial maps were reconstructed to generate local EP parameters such as activation time (AT), repolarization time (RT) and activation recovery intervals (ARI). 20 intra- and inter-observer and 8 scan re-scan repeatability tests.

RESULTS

77 participants were recruited: 27 young healthy volunteers (HV, 38.9 ± 8.5 years, 35% male) and 50 older persons (77.0 ± 0.1 years, 52% male). CMR-ECGI was achieved in all participants using the same reusable, washable vest without complications. Intra- and inter-observer variability was low (correlation coefficients [rs] across unipolar electrograms = 0.99 and 0.98 respectively) and scan re-scan repeatability was high (rs between 0.81 and 0.93). Compared to young HV, older persons had significantly longer RT (296.8 vs 289.3 ms, p = 0.002), ARI (249.8 vs 235.1 ms, p = 0.002) and local gradients of AT, RT and ARI (0.40 vs 0.34 ms/mm, p = 0,01; 0.92 vs 0.77 ms/mm, p = 0.03; and 1.12 vs 0.92 ms/mm, p = 0.01 respectively).

CONCLUSION

Our high-throughput CMR-ECGI solution is feasible and shows good reproducibility in younger and older participants. This new technology is now scalable for high throughput research to provide novel insights into arrhythmogenesis and potentially pave the way for more personalised risk stratification.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Title: Multimorbidity Life-Course Approach to Myocardial Health-A Cardiac Sub-Study of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) (MyoFit46). National Clinical Trials (NCT) number: NCT05455125. URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05455125?term=MyoFit&draw=2&rank=1.

Identifying and ranking novel independent features for cardiovascular disease prediction in people with type 2 diabetes

Background

CVD prediction models do not perform well in people with diabetes. We therefore aimed to identify novel predictors for six facets of CVD, (including coronary heart disease (CHD), Ischemic stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF)) in people with T2DM.

Methods

Analyses were conducted using the UK biobank and were stratified on history of CVD and of T2DM: 459,142 participants without diabetes or a history of CVD, 14,610 with diabetes but without CVD, and 4,432 with diabetes and a history of CVD. Replication was performed using a 20% hold-out set, ranking features on their permuted c-statistic.

Results

Out of the 600+ candidate features, we identified a subset of replicated features, ranging between 32 for CHD in people with diabetes to 184 for CVD+HF+AF in people without diabetes. Classical CVD risk factors (e.g. parental or maternal history of heart disease, or blood pressure) were relatively highly ranked for people without diabetes. The top predictors in the people with diabetes without a CVD history included: cystatin C, self-reported health satisfaction, biochemical measures of ill health (e.g. plasma albumin). For people with diabetes and a history of CVD top features were: self-reported ill health, and blood cell counts measurements (e.g. red cell distribution width). We additionally identified risk factors unique to people with diabetes, consisting of information on dietary patterns, mental health and biochemistry measures. Consideration of these novel features improved risk classification, for example per 1000 people with diabetes 133 CVD and 165 HF cases appropriately received a higher risk.

Conclusion

Through data-driven feature selection we identified a substantial number of features relevant for prediction of cardiovascular risk in people with diabetes, the majority of which related to non-classical risk factors such as mental health, general illness markers, and kidney disease.

Is Height2.7 Appropriate for Indexation of Left Ventricular Mass in Healthy Adolescents? The Importance of Sex Differences

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular mass (LVM) is an important predictor of cardiovascular risk. In adolescence, LVM is commonly indexed to height2.7, although some evidence suggests that this may not fully account for sex differences.

METHODS

We investigated appropriate allometric scaling of LVM to height, total lean mass, and body surface area, in a UK birth cohort of 2039 healthy adolescents (17±1 years). Allometric relationships were determined by linear regression stratified by sex, following log transformation of x and y variables [log(y)=a+b×log(x)], b is the allometric exponent.

RESULTS

Log (LVM) showed linear relationships with log(height) and log(lean mass). Biased estimates of slope resulted when the sexes were pooled. The exponents were lower than the conventional estimate of 2.7 for males (mean [95% CI]=1.66 [1.30-2.03]) and females (1.58 [1.27-1.90]). When LVM was indexed to lean mass, the exponent was 1.16 (1.05-1.26) for males and 1.07 (0.97-1.16) for females. When LVM was indexed to estimated body surface area, the exponent was 1.53 (1.40-1.66) for males and 1.34 (1.24-1.45) for females.

CONCLUSIONS

Allometric exponents derived from pooled data, including men and women without adjustment for sex were biased, possibly due to sex differences in body composition. We suggest that when assessing LVM, clinicians should consider body size, body composition, sex, and age. Our observations may also have implications for the identification of young individuals with cardiac hypertrophy.

Early childhood lower respiratory tract infection and premature adult death from respiratory disease in Great Britain: a national birth cohort study

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in early childhood are known to influence lung development and lifelong lung health, but their link to premature adult death from respiratory disease is unclear. We aimed to estimate the association between early childhood LRTI and the risk and burden of premature adult mortality from respiratory disease.

METHODS

This longitudinal observational cohort study used data collected prospectively by the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development in a nationally representative cohort recruited at birth in March, 1946, in England, Scotland, and Wales. We evaluated the association between LRTI during early childhood (age <2 years) and death from respiratory disease from age 26 through 73 years. Early childhood LRTI occurrence was reported by parents or guardians. Cause and date of death were obtained from the National Health Service Central Register. Hazard ratios (HRs) and population attributable risk associated with early childhood LRTI were estimated using competing risks Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for childhood socioeconomic position, childhood home overcrowding, birthweight, sex, and smoking at age 20-25 years. We compared mortality within the cohort studied with national mortality patterns and estimated corresponding excess deaths occurring nationally during the study period.

FINDINGS

5362 participants were enrolled in March, 1946, and 4032 (75%) continued participating in the study at age 20-25 years. 443 participants with incomplete data on early childhood (368 [9%] of 4032), smoking (57 [1%]), or mortality (18 [<1%]) were excluded. 3589 participants aged 26 years (1840 [51%] male and 1749 [49%] female) were included in the survival analyses from 1972 onwards. The maximum follow-up time was 47·9 years. Among 3589 participants, 913 (25%) who had an LRTI during early childhood were at greater risk of dying from respiratory disease by age 73 years than those with no LRTI during early childhood (HR 1·93, 95% CI 1·10-3·37; p=0·021), after adjustment for childhood socioeconomic position, childhood home overcrowding, birthweight, sex, and adult smoking. This finding corresponded to a population attributable risk of 20·4% (95% CI 3·8-29·8) and 179 188 (95% CI 33 806-261 519) excess deaths across England and Wales between 1972 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

In this prospective, life-spanning, nationally representative cohort study, LRTI during early childhood was associated with almost a two times increased risk of premature adult death from respiratory disease, and accounted for one-fifth of these deaths.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health and Care Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Royal Brompton and Harefield National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust, Royal Brompton and Harefield Hospitals Charity and Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, UK Medical Research Council.

Home working and social and mental wellbeing at different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK: Evidence from 7 longitudinal population surveys

BACKGROUND

Home working has increased since the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic's onset with concerns that it may have adverse health implications. We assessed the association between home working and social and mental wellbeing among the employed population aged 16 to 66 through harmonised analyses of 7 UK longitudinal studies.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We estimated associations between home working and measures of psychological distress, low life satisfaction, poor self-rated health, low social contact, and loneliness across 3 different stages of the pandemic (T1 = April to June 2020 -first lockdown, T2 = July to October 2020 -eased restrictions, T3 = November 2020 to March 2021 -second lockdown) using modified Poisson regression and meta-analyses to pool results across studies. We successively adjusted the model for sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., age, sex), job characteristics (e.g., sector of activity, pre-pandemic home working propensities), and pre-pandemic health. Among respectively 10,367, 11,585, and 12,179 participants at T1, T2, and T3, we found higher rates of home working at T1 and T3 compared with T2, reflecting lockdown periods. Home working was not associated with psychological distress at T1 (RR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.79 to 1.08) or T2 (RR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.88 to 1.11), but a detrimental association was found with psychological distress at T3 (RR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.30). Study limitations include the fact that pre-pandemic home working propensities were derived from external sources, no information was collected on home working dosage and possible reverse association between change in wellbeing and home working likelihood.

CONCLUSIONS

No clear evidence of an association between home working and mental wellbeing was found, apart from greater risk of psychological distress during the second lockdown, but differences across subgroups (e.g., by sex or level of education) may exist. Longer term shifts to home working might not have adverse impacts on population wellbeing in the absence of pandemic restrictions but further monitoring of health inequalities is required.

Adverse childhood experiences and the development of multimorbidity across adulthood-a national 70-year cohort study

AIM

To examine impact of adverse childhood experiences (ACE) on rates and development of multimorbidity across three decades in adulthood.

METHODS

Sample: Participants from the 1946 National Survey of Health and Development, who attended the age 36 assessment in 1982 and follow-up assessments (ages 43, 53, 63, 69; N = 3,264, 51% males). Prospectively collected data on nine ACEs was grouped into (i) psychosocial, (ii) parental health and (iii) childhood health. For each group, we calculated cumulative ACE scores, categorised into 0, 1 and ≥2 ACEs. Multimorbidity was estimated as the total score of 18 health disorders.Serial cross-sectional linear regression was used to estimate associations between grouped ACEs and multimorbidity during follow-up. Longitudinal analysis of ACE-associated changes in multimorbidity trajectories across follow-up was estimated using linear mixed-effects modelling for ACE groups (adjusted for sex and childhood socioeconomic circumstances).

FINDINGS

Accumulation of psychosocial and childhood health ACEs were associated with progressively higher multimorbidity scores throughout follow-up. For example, those with ≥2 psychosocial ACEs experienced 0.20(95% CI 0.07, 0.34) more disorders at age 36 than those with none, rising to 0.61(0.18, 1.04) disorders at age 69.All three grouped ACEs were associated with greater rates of accumulation and higher multimorbidity trajectories across adulthood. For example, individuals with ≥2 psychosocial ACEs developed 0.13(-0.09, 0.34) more disorders between ages 36 and 43, 0.29(0.06, 0.52) disorders between ages 53 and 63, and 0.30(0.09, 0.52) disorders between ages 63 and 69 compared with no psychosocial ACEs.

INTERPRETATIONS

ACEs are associated with widening inequalities in multimorbidity development in adulthood and early old age. Public health policies should aim to reduce these disparities through individual and population-level interventions.

Characterising patterns of COVID-19 and long COVID symptoms: evidence from nine UK longitudinal studies

Multiple studies across global populations have established the primary symptoms characterising Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and long COVID. However, as symptoms may also occur in the absence of COVID-19, a lack of appropriate controls has often meant that specificity of symptoms to acute COVID-19 or long COVID, and the extent and length of time for which they are elevated after COVID-19, could not be examined. We analysed individual symptom prevalences and characterised patterns of COVID-19 and long COVID symptoms across nine UK longitudinal studies, totalling over 42,000 participants. Conducting latent class analyses separately in three groups ('no COVID-19', 'COVID-19 in last 12 weeks', 'COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago'), the data did not support the presence of more than two distinct symptom patterns, representing high and low symptom burden, in each group. Comparing the high symptom burden classes between the 'COVID-19 in last 12 weeks' and 'no COVID-19' groups we identified symptoms characteristic of acute COVID-19, including loss of taste and smell, fatigue, cough, shortness of breath and muscle pains or aches. Comparing the high symptom burden classes between the 'COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago' and 'no COVID-19' groups we identified symptoms characteristic of long COVID, including fatigue, shortness of breath, muscle pain or aches, difficulty concentrating and chest tightness. The identified symptom patterns among individuals with COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago were strongly associated with self-reported length of time unable to function as normal due to COVID-19 symptoms, suggesting that the symptom pattern identified corresponds to long COVID. Building the evidence base regarding typical long COVID symptoms will improve diagnosis of this condition and the ability to elicit underlying biological mechanisms, leading to better patient access to treatment and services.

Ethnic differences in hypertension management, medication use and blood pressure control in UK primary care, 2006-2019: a retrospective cohort study

Background

In the UK, previous work suggests ethnic inequalities in hypertension management. We studied ethnic differences in hypertension management and their contribution to blood pressure (BP) control.

Methods

We conducted a cohort study of antihypertensive-naïve individuals of European, South Asian and African/African Caribbean ethnicity with a new raised BP reading in UK primary care from 2006 to 2019, using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). We studied differences in: BP re-measurement after an initial hypertensive BP, antihypertensive initiation, BP monitoring, antihypertensive intensification, antihypertensive persistence/adherence and BP control one year after antihypertensive initiation. Models adjusted for socio-demographics, BP, comorbidity, healthcare usage and polypharmacy (plus antihypertensive class, BP monitoring, intensification, persistence and adherence for BP control models).

Findings

A total of 731,506 (93.5%), 30,379 (3.9%) and 20,256 (2.6%) people of European, South Asian and African/African Caribbean ethnicity were studied. Hypertension management indicators were similar or more favourable for South Asian than European groups (OR/HR [95% CI] in fully-adjusted models of BP re-measurement: 1.16 [1.09, 1.24]), antihypertensive initiation: 1.49 [1.37, 1.62], BP monitoring: 0.97 [0.94, 1.00] and antihypertensive intensification: 1.10 [1.04, 1.16]). For people of African/African Caribbean ethnicity, BP re-measurement rates were similar to those of European ethnicity (0.98 [0.91, 1.05]), and antihypertensive initiation rates greater (1.48 [1.32, 1.66]), but BP monitoring (0.91 [0.87, 0.95]) and intensification rates lower (0.93 [0.87, 1.00]). Persistence and adherence were lower in South Asian (0.48 [0.45, 0.51] and 0.51 [0.47, 0.56]) and African/African Caribbean (0.38 [0.35, 0.42] and 0.39 [0.36, 0.43]) than European groups. BP control was similar in South Asian and less likely in African/African Caribbean than European groups (0.98 [0.90, 1.06] and 0.81 [0.74, 0.89] in age, gender and BP adjusted models). The latter difference attenuated after adjustment for persistence (0.91 [0.82, 0.99]) or adherence (0.92 [0.83, 1.01]), and was absent for antihypertensive-adherent people (0.99 [0.88, 1.10]).

Interpretation

We demonstrate that antihypertensive initiation does not vary by ethnicity, but subsequent BP control was notably lower among people of African/African Caribbean ethnicity, potentially associated with being less likely to remain on regular treatment. A nationwide strategy to understand and address differences in ongoing management of people on antihypertensives is imperative.

Funding

Diabetes UK.

Antibody levels following vaccination against SARS-CoV-2: associations with post-vaccination infection and risk factors in two UK longitudinal studies

Background

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody levels can be used to assess humoral immune responses following SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination, and may predict risk of future infection. Higher levels of SARS-CoV-2 anti-Spike antibodies are known to be associated with increased protection against future SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, variation in antibody levels and risk factors for lower antibody levels following each round of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination have not been explored across a wide range of socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, and health factors within population-based cohorts.

Methods

Samples were collected from 9361 individuals from TwinsUK and ALSPAC UK population-based longitudinal studies and tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Cross-sectional sampling was undertaken jointly in April-May 2021 (TwinsUK, N=4256; ALSPAC, N=4622), and in TwinsUK only in November 2021-January 2022 (N=3575). Variation in antibody levels after first, second, and third SARS-CoV-2 vaccination with health, socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination variables were analysed. Using multivariable logistic regression models, we tested associations between antibody levels following vaccination and: (1) SARS-CoV-2 infection following vaccination(s); (2) health, socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination variables.

Results

Within TwinsUK, single-vaccinated individuals with the lowest 20% of anti-Spike antibody levels at initial testing had threefold greater odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection over the next 6-9 months (OR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.4, 6.0), compared to the top 20%. In TwinsUK and ALSPAC, individuals identified as at increased risk of COVID-19 complication through the UK 'Shielded Patient List' had consistently greater odds (two- to fourfold) of having antibody levels in the lowest 10%. Third vaccination increased absolute antibody levels for almost all individuals, and reduced relative disparities compared with earlier vaccinations.

Conclusions

These findings quantify the association between antibody level and risk of subsequent infection, and support a policy of triple vaccination for the generation of protective antibodies.

Funding

Antibody testing was funded by UK Health Security Agency. The National Core Studies program is funded by COVID-19 Longitudinal Health and Wellbeing - National Core Study (LHW-NCS) HMT/UKRI/MRC ([MC_PC_20030] and [MC_PC_20059]). Related funding was also provided by the NIHR 606 (CONVALESCENCE grant [COV-LT-0009]). TwinsUK is funded by the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Versus Arthritis, European Union Horizon 2020, Chronic Disease Research Foundation (CDRF), Zoe Ltd and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network (CRN) and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King's College London. The UK Medical Research Council and Wellcome (Grant ref: [217065/Z/19/Z]) and the University of Bristol provide core support for ALSPAC.

Biomedical consequences of elevated cholesterol-containing lipoproteins and apolipoproteins on cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular outcomes

BACKGROUND

Higher concentrations of cholesterol-containing low-density lipoprotein (LDL-C) increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The association of LDL-C with non-CVD traits remains unclear, as are the possible independent contributions of other cholesterol-containing lipoproteins and apolipoproteins.

METHODS

Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy was used to measure the cholesterol content of high density (HDL-C), very low-density (VLDL-C), intermediate-density (IDL-C), as well as low-density lipoprotein fractions, the apolipoproteins Apo-A1 and Apo-B, as well as total triglycerides (TG), remnant-cholesterol (Rem-Chol) and total cholesterol (TC). The causal effects of these exposures were assessed against 33 outcomes using univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR).

RESULTS

The majority of cholesterol containing lipoproteins and apolipoproteins affect coronary heart disease (CHD), carotid intima-media thickness, carotid plaque, C-reactive protein (CRP) and blood pressure. Multivariable MR indicated that many of these effects act independently of HDL-C, LDL-C and TG, the most frequently measured lipid fractions. Higher concentrations of TG, VLDL-C, Rem-Chol and Apo-B increased heart failure (HF) risk; often independently of LDL-C, HDL-C or TG. Finally, a subset of these exposures associated with non-CVD traits such as Alzheimer's disease (AD: HDL-C, LDL-C, IDL-C, Apo-B), type 2 diabetes (T2DM: VLDL-C, IDL-C, LDL-C), and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD: LDL-C, IDL-C).

CONCLUSIONS

The cholesterol content of a wide range of lipoprotein and apolipoproteins associate with measures of atherosclerosis, blood pressure, CRP, and CHD, with a subset affecting HF, T2DM, AD and IBD risk. Many of the observed effects appear to act independently of LDL-C, HDL-C, and TG, supporting the targeting of lipid fractions beyond LDL-C for disease prevention.

Identifying and visualising multimorbidity and comorbidity patterns in patients in the English National Health Service: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Globally, there is a paucity of multimorbidity and comorbidity data, especially for minority ethnic groups and younger people. We estimated the frequency of common disease combinations and identified non-random disease associations for all ages in a multiethnic population.

METHODS

In this population-based study, we examined multimorbidity and comorbidity patterns stratified by ethnicity or race, sex, and age for 308 health conditions using electronic health records from individuals included on the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with the Hospital Episode Statistics admitted patient care dataset in England. We included individuals who were older than 1 year and who had been registered for at least 1 year in a participating general practice during the study period (between April 1, 2010, and March 31, 2015). We identified the most common combinations of conditions and comorbidities for index conditions. We defined comorbidity as the accumulation of additional conditions to an index condition over an individual's lifetime. We used network analysis to identify conditions that co-occurred more often than expected by chance. We developed online interactive tools to explore multimorbidity and comorbidity patterns overall and by subgroup based on ethnicity, sex, and age.

FINDINGS

We collected data for 3 872 451 eligible patients, of whom 1 955 700 (50·5%) were women and girls, 1 916 751 (49·5%) were men and boys, 2 666 234 (68·9%) were White, 155 435 (4·0%) were south Asian, and 98 815 (2·6%) were Black. We found that a higher proportion of boys aged 1-9 years (132 506 [47·8%] of 277 158) had two or more diagnosed conditions than did girls in the same age group (106 982 [40·3%] of 265 179), but more women and girls were diagnosed with multimorbidity than were boys aged 10 years and older and men (1 361 232 [80·5%] of 1 690 521 vs 1 161 308 [70·8%] of 1 639 593). White individuals (2 097 536 [78·7%] of 2 666 234) were more likely to be diagnosed with two or more conditions than were Black (59 339 [60·1%] of 98 815) or south Asian individuals (93 617 [60·2%] of 155 435). Depression commonly co-occurred with anxiety, migraine, obesity, atopic conditions, deafness, soft-tissue disorders, and gastrointestinal disorders across all subgroups. Heart failure often co-occurred with hypertension, atrial fibrillation, osteoarthritis, stable angina, myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Spinal fractures were most strongly non-randomly associated with malignancy in Black individuals, but with osteoporosis in White individuals. Hypertension was most strongly associated with kidney disorders in those aged 20-29 years, but with dyslipidaemia, obesity, and type 2 diabetes in individuals aged 40 years and older. Breast cancer was associated with different comorbidities in individuals from different ethnic groups. Asthma was associated with different comorbidities between males and females. Bipolar disorder was associated with different comorbidities in younger age groups compared with older age groups.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings and interactive online tools are a resource for: patients and their clinicians, to prevent and detect comorbid conditions; research funders and policy makers, to redesign service provision, training priorities, and guideline development; and biomedical researchers and manufacturers of medicines, to provide leads for research into common or sequential pathways of disease and inform the design of clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust, British Heart Foundation, and The Alan Turing Institute.

Characterisation of ethnic differences in DNA methylation between UK-resident South Asians and Europeans

Ethnic differences in non-communicable disease risk have been described between individuals of South Asian and European ethnicity that are only partially explained by genetics and other known risk factors. DNA methylation is one underexplored mechanism that may explain differences in disease risk. Currently, there is little knowledge of how DNA methylation varies between South Asian and European ethnicities. This study characterised differences in blood DNA methylation between individuals of self-reported European and South Asian ethnicity from two UK-based cohorts: Southall and Brent Revisited and Born in Bradford. DNA methylation differences between ethnicities were widespread throughout the genome (n = 16,433 CpG sites, 3.4% sites tested). Specifically, 76% of associations were attributable to ethnic differences in cell composition with fewer effects attributable to smoking and genetic variation. Ethnicity-associated CpG sites were enriched for EWAS Catalog phenotypes including metabolites. This work highlights the need to consider ethnic diversity in epigenetic research.

Inequalities in healthcare disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from 12 UK population-based longitudinal studies

OBJECTIVES

We investigated associations between multiple sociodemographic characteristics (sex, age, occupational social class, education and ethnicity) and self-reported healthcare disruptions during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN

Coordinated analysis of prospective population surveys.

SETTING

Community-dwelling participants in the UK between April 2020 and January 2021.

PARTICIPANTS

Over 68 000 participants from 12 longitudinal studies.

OUTCOMES

Self-reported healthcare disruption to medication access, procedures and appointments.

RESULTS

Prevalence of healthcare disruption varied substantially across studies: between 6% and 32% reported any disruption, with 1%-10% experiencing disruptions in medication, 1%-17% experiencing disruption in procedures and 4%-28% experiencing disruption in clinical appointments. Females (OR 1.27; 95% CI 1.15 to 1.40; I²=54%), older persons (eg, OR 1.39; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.72; I²=77% for 65-75 years vs 45-54 years) and ethnic minorities (excluding white minorities) (OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.35; I²=0% vs white) were more likely to report healthcare disruptions. Those in a more disadvantaged social class were also more likely to report healthcare disruptions (eg, OR 1.17; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.27; I²=0% for manual/routine vs managerial/professional), but no clear differences were observed by education. We did not find evidence that these associations differed by shielding status.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthcare disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic could contribute to the maintenance or widening of existing health inequalities.

Heterozygous APOE ε4 carriage associates with improved myocardial efficiency in older age

Background

Carriage of the ancestral APOE ε4 allele confers a risk of developing Alzheimer's and coronary artery disease, but its persistence in human populations also suggests some potential survival advantages. To date it remains unclear whether APOE ε4 carriage independently associates with a better or worse long-term cardiac phenotype.

Purpose

Using data from the 1946 National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) birth cohort, we investigated whether APOE ε4 carriage associates with adverse or beneficial left ventricular (LV) size and function parameters by echocardiography in older age.

Methods

Based on the presence or absence of APOE ε4, genotypes were divided into: non-APOE ε4 (ε2ε2, ε2ε3, ε3ε3), heterozygous-APOE ε4 (ε2ε4 and ε3ε4) and homozygous-APOE ε4 (ε4ε4). Echocardiographic data at 60–64 years included: left ventricular ejection fraction (LV EF), E/e', systolic and diastolic LV posterior wall and interventricular septal thickness (LVPWTs/d, IVSs/d), and body-surface area indexed LV mass (LVmassi) and myocardial contraction fraction (MCFi). Generalized linear models explored associations between APOE ε4 genotypes as exposures and echocardiographic biomarkers as outcomes. As a combination of gene variants, APOE ε genotype is expected to be an instrumental variable and therefore unconfounded. Thus, Model 1 was unadjusted. To obtain more precise regression estimates, Model 2 was adjusted for factors associated with the outcome, namely sex and socio-economic position (SEP). To explore the mechanistic pathway downstream of APOE ε genotype but upstream of the echocardiographic outcomes, subsequent models were adjusted for mediators as follows: Model 3 for body mass index, Model 4 for the presence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), Model 5 for diabetes, Model 6 for high cholesterol and Model 7 for hypertension.

Results

1464 participants were included. Compared to non-APOE ε4 and homozygous groups, heterozygous-APOE ε4 individuals had similar cardiac phenotypes in terms of EF, E/e', LVPWTs/d, IVSs/d and LVmassi but had a 7% higher MCFi 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1%-13%, p=0.017) which persisted even after adjustment for sex and SEP (95% CI 1%-12%, p=0.026) that was attenuated to 6% after adjustment for CVD (95% CI 0–13% p=0.050) and hypertension (95% CI 1–13% p=0.022).

Conclusion

The heterozygous-APOE ε4 state associates with improved myocardial shortening in older age resulting in greater LV stroke volume generation per 1 mL of myocardium. As we found no association between APOE ε4 carriage and LVPWTs/d, IVSs/d or LVmassi, MCFi enhancement may be mediated by improved myocardial energetics and contractility, with calcium and androgens potentially implicated, rather than through pathological ventricular thickening. Although a dose relationship is normally expected with ε4 carriage, any benefit from increased energetics and contractility is likely to be counterbalances by the higher risk of CVD and cardiovascular risk factors.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK Medical Research Council British Heart Foundation

The UK Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and smoking, alcohol consumption and vaping during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from eight longitudinal population surveys

BACKGROUND

Employment disruptions can impact smoking and alcohol consumption. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented furlough schemes to prevent job loss. We examine how furlough was associated with smoking, vaping and alcohol consumption in the UK.

METHODS

Data from 27,841 participants in eight UK adult longitudinal surveys were analysed. Participants self-reported employment status and current smoking, current vaping and alcohol consumption (>4 days/week or 5+ drinks per typical occasion) both before and during the early stages of the pandemic (April-July 2020). Risk ratios were estimated within each study using modified Poisson regression, adjusting for a range of potential confounders, including pre-pandemic behaviour. Findings were synthesised using random effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Compared to stable employment and after adjustment for pre-pandemic characteristics, furlough was not associated with smoking (ARR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.95-1.16; I²: 10%), vaping (ARR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.74-1.08; I²: 0%) or drinking (ARR = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.94-1.13; I²: 48%). There were similar findings for no longer being employed, and stable unemployment, though this varied by sex: stable unemployment was associated with smoking for women (ARR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.00-1.82; I²: 47%) but not men (0.84; 95% CI: 0.67-1.05; I²: 0%). No longer being employed was associated with vaping among women (ARR = 2.74; 95% CI: 1.59-4.72; I²: 0%) but not men (ARR = 1.25; 95% CI: 0.83-1.87; I²: 0%).

CONCLUSIONS

We found no clear evidence of furlough or unemployment having adverse impacts on smoking, vaping or drinking behaviours during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. Differences in risk compared to those who remained employed were largely explained by pre-pandemic characteristics.

Association of COVID-19 With Major Arterial and Venous Thrombotic Diseases: A Population-Wide Cohort Study of 48 Million Adults in England and Wales

BACKGROUND

Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) induces a prothrombotic state, but long-term effects of COVID-19 on incidence of vascular diseases are unclear.

METHODS

We studied vascular diseases after COVID-19 diagnosis in population-wide anonymized linked English and Welsh electronic health records from January 1 to December 7, 2020. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios comparing the incidence of arterial thromboses and venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) after diagnosis of COVID-19 with the incidence in people without a COVID-19 diagnosis. We conducted subgroup analyses by COVID-19 severity, demographic characteristics, and previous history.

RESULTS

Among 48 million adults, 125 985 were hospitalized and 1 319 789 were not hospitalized within 28 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. In England, there were 260 279 first arterial thromboses and 59 421 first VTEs during 41.6 million person-years of follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios for first arterial thrombosis after COVID-19 diagnosis compared with no COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 21.7 (95% CI, 21.0-22.4) in week 1 after COVID-19 diagnosis to 1.34 (95% CI, 1.21-1.48) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios for first VTE after COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 33.2 (95% CI, 31.3-35.2) in week 1 to 1.80 (95% CI, 1.50-2.17) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios were higher, for longer after diagnosis, after hospitalized versus nonhospitalized COVID-19, among Black or Asian versus White people, and among people without versus with a previous event. The estimated whole-population increases in risk of arterial thromboses and VTEs 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis were 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively, corresponding to 7200 and 3500 additional events, respectively, after 1.4 million COVID-19 diagnoses.

CONCLUSIONS

High relative incidence of vascular events soon after COVID-19 diagnosis declines more rapidly for arterial thromboses than VTEs. However, incidence remains elevated up to 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis. These results support policies to prevent severe COVID-19 by means of COVID-19 vaccines, early review after discharge, risk factor control, and use of secondary preventive agents in high-risk patients.

Bayesian dynamic network modelling: an application to metabolic associations in cardiovascular diseases

We propose a novel approach to the estimation of multiple Graphical Models to analyse temporal patterns of association among a set of metabolites over different groups of patients. Our motivating application is the Southall And Brent REvisited (SABRE) study, a tri-ethnic cohort study conducted in the UK. We are interested in identifying potential ethnic differences in metabolite levels and associations as well as their evolution over time, with the aim of gaining a better understanding of different risk of cardio-metabolic disorders across ethnicities. Within a Bayesian framework, we employ a nodewise regression approach to infer the structure of the graphs, borrowing information across time as well as across ethnicities. The response variables of interest are metabolite levels measured at two time points and for two ethnic groups, Europeans and South-Asians. We use nodewise regression to estimate the high-dimensional precision matrices of the metabolites, imposing sparsity on the regression coefficients through the dynamic horseshoe prior, thus favouring sparser graphs. We provide the code to fit the proposed model using the software Stan, which performs posterior inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling, as well as a detailed description of a block Gibbs sampling scheme.

Antihypertensive treatment effect on exercise blood pressure and exercise capacity in older adults

BACKGROUND

An exaggerated blood pressure (BP) response to exercise and low exercise capacity are risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The effect of pharmacological antihypertensive treatment on exercise BP in older adults is largely unknown. This study investigates these effects accounting for differences in exercise capacity.

METHODS

Participants enrolled in the Southall and Brent Revisited (SABRE) study undertook a 6-min stepper test with expired gas analysis and BP measured throughout exercise. Participants were stratified by antihypertensive treatment status and resting BP control. Exercise systolic and diastolic BP (exSBP and exDBP) were compared between groups using potential outcome means [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] adjusted for exercise capacity. Exercise capacity was also compared by group.

RESULTS

In total, 659 participants were included (mean age ± SD: 73 ± 6.6 years, 57% male). 31% of normotensive and 23% of hypertensive older adults with controlled resting BP had an exaggerated exercise BP. ExSBP was similar between normotensive and treated/controlled individuals [mean (95%CI): 180 (176 184) mmHg vs. 177 (173 181) mmHg, respectively] but was higher in treated/uncontrolled and untreated/uncontrolled individuals [mean (95% CI): 194 (190 197) mmHg, P  < 0.001 and 199 (194 204) mmHg, P  < 0.001, respectively]; these differences persisted after adjustment for exercise capacity and other confounders. Exercise capacity was lower in treated vs. normotensive individuals [mean (95% CI) normotensive: 16.7 (16.0,17.4) ml/kg/min]; treated/controlled: 15.5 (14.8,16.1) ml/kg/min, P  = 0.009; treated/uncontrolled: [15.1 (14.5,15.7) ml/kg per min, P  = 0.001] but was not reduced in untreated/uncontrolled individuals [mean (95% CI): 17.0 (16.1,17.8) ml/kg per min, P  = 0.621].

CONCLUSION

Irrespective of resting BP control and despite performing less exercise, antihypertensive treatment does not fully mitigate an exaggerated BP response to exercise suggesting residual CVD risk in older adults.

Mental and social wellbeing and the UK coronavirus job retention scheme: Evidence from nine longitudinal studies

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to major economic disruptions. In March 2020, the UK implemented the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme - known as furlough - to minimize the impact of job losses. We investigate associations between change in employment status and mental and social wellbeing during the early stages of the pandemic.

METHODS

Data were from 25,670 respondents, aged 17-66, across nine UK longitudinal studies. Furlough and other employment changes were defined using employment status pre-pandemic and during the first lockdown (April-June 2020). Mental and social wellbeing outcomes included psychological distress, life satisfaction, self-rated health, social contact, and loneliness. Study-specific modified Poisson regression estimates, adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics and pre-pandemic mental and social wellbeing, were pooled using meta-analysis. Associations were also stratified by sex, age, education, and household composition.

RESULTS

Compared to those who remained working, furloughed workers were at greater risk of psychological distress (adjusted risk ratio, ARR = 1.12; 95%CI: 0.97, 1.29), low life satisfaction (ARR = 1.14; 95%CI: 1.07, 1.22), loneliness (ARR = 1.12; 95%CI: 1.01, 1.23), and poor self-rated health (ARR = 1.26; 95%CI: 1.05, 1.50). Nevertheless, compared to furloughed workers, those who became unemployed had greater risk of psychological distress (ARR = 1.30; 95%CI: 1.12, 1.52), low life satisfaction (ARR = 1.16; 95%CI: 0.98, 1.38), and loneliness (ARR = 1.67; 95%CI: 1.08, 2.59). Effects were not uniform across all sub-groups.

CONCLUSIONS

During the early stages of the pandemic, those furloughed had increased risk of poor mental and social wellbeing, but furloughed workers fared better than those who became unemployed, suggesting that furlough may have partly mitigated poorer outcomes.

Skeletal Muscle Tissue Saturation Changes Measured Using Near Infrared Spectroscopy During Exercise Are Associated With Post-Occlusive Reactive Hyperaemia

Measuring local haemodynamics in skeletal muscle has the potential to provide valuable insight into the oxygen delivery to tissue, especially during high demand situations such as exercise. The aim of this study was to compare the skeletal muscle microvascular response during post-occlusive reactive hyperaemia (PORH) with the response to exercise, each measured using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and to establish if associations exist between muscle measures and exercise capacity or sex. Participants were from a population-based cohort study, the Southall and Brent Revisited (SABRE) study. Skeletal muscle measures included changes in tissue saturation index at the onset of exercise (∆TSIBL-INC) and across the whole of exercise (∆TSIBL-EE), time to 50%, 95% and 100% PORH, rate of PORH recovery, area under the curve (AUC) and total oxygenated Haemoglobin (oxy-Hb) change during PORH. Exercise capacity was measured using a 6-min stepper test (6MST). Analysis was by multiple linear regression. In total, 558 participants completed the 6MST with NIRS measures of TSI (mean age±SD: 73 ± 7years, 59% male). A sub-set of 149 participants also undertook the arterial occlusion. Time to 100% PORH, recovery rate, AUC and ∆oxy-Hb were all associated with ∆TSIBL-EE (β-coefficient (95%CI): 0.05 (0.01, 0.09), p = 0.012; -47 (-85, -9.9), p = 0.014; 1.7 (0.62, 2.8), p = 0.002; 0.04 (0.002.0.108), p = 0.041, respectively). Time to 95% & 100% PORH, AUC and ∆oxy-Hb were all associated with ∆TSIBL-INC (β-coefficient (95%CI): -0.07 (-0.12,-0.02), p = 0.02; -0.03 (-0.05, -0.003), p = 0.028; 0.85 (0.18, 1.5), p = 0.013 & 0.05 (0.02, 0.09), p = 0.001, respectively). AUC and ∆Oxy-Hb were associated with steps achieved (β-coefficient (95%CI): 18.0 (2.3, 33.7), p = 0.025; 0.86 (0.10, 1.6), p = 0.027). ∆TSIBL-EE was associated with steps and highest VO2 (1.7 (0.49, 2.9), p = 0.006; 7.7 (3.2, 12.3), p = 0.001). ∆TSIBL-INC was associated with steps and VO2 but this difference was attenuated towards the null after adjustment for age, sex and ethnicity. ∆TSIBL-EE was greater in women (3.4 (0.4, 8.9) versus 2.1 (0.3, 7.4), p = 0.017) and ∆TSIBL-INC was lower in women versus men (2.4 (0.2, 10.2) versus 3.2 (0.2, 18.2), p = 0.016). These Local microvascular NIRS-measures are associated with exercise capacity in older adults and several measures can detect differences in microvascular reactivity between a community-based sample of men and women.

Genetic and observational evidence: No independent role for cholesterol efflux over static high-density lipoprotein concentration measures in coronary heart disease risk assessment

BACKGROUND

Observational findings for high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-mediated cholesterol efflux capacity (HDL-CEC) and coronary heart disease (CHD) appear inconsistent, and knowledge of the genetic architecture of HDL-CEC is limited.

OBJECTIVES

A large-scale observational study on the associations of HDL-CEC and other HDL-related measures with CHD and the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) of HDL-CEC.

PARTICIPANTS/METHODS

Six independent cohorts were included with follow-up data for 14,438 participants to investigate the associations of HDL-related measures with incident CHD (1,570 events). The GWAS of HDL-CEC was carried out in 20,372 participants.

RESULTS

HDL-CEC did not associate with CHD when adjusted for traditional risk factors and HDL cholesterol (HDL-C). In contradiction, almost all HDL-related concentration measures associated consistently with CHD after corresponding adjustments. There were no genetic loci associated with HDL-CEC independent of HDL-C and triglycerides.

CONCLUSION

HDL-CEC is not unequivocally associated with CHD in contrast to HDL-C, apolipoprotein A-I, and most of the HDL subclass particle concentrations.

Long COVID burden and risk factors in 10 UK longitudinal studies and electronic health records

The frequency of, and risk factors for, long COVID are unclear among community-based individuals with a history of COVID-19. To elucidate the burden and possible causes of long COVID in the community, we coordinated analyses of survey data from 6907 individuals with self-reported COVID-19 from 10 UK longitudinal study (LS) samples and 1.1 million individuals with COVID-19 diagnostic codes in electronic healthcare records (EHR) collected by spring 2021. Proportions of presumed COVID-19 cases in LS reporting any symptoms for 12+ weeks ranged from 7.8% and 17% (with 1.2 to 4.8% reporting debilitating symptoms). Increasing age, female sex, white ethnicity, poor pre-pandemic general and mental health, overweight/obesity, and asthma were associated with prolonged symptoms in both LS and EHR data, but findings for other factors, such as cardio-metabolic parameters, were inconclusive.

Declining Levels and Bioavailability of IGF-I in Cardiovascular Aging Associate With QT Prolongation-Results From the 1946 British Birth Cohort

Background

As people age, circulating levels of insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and IGF binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3) decline. In rat cardiomyocytes, IGF-I has been shown to regulate sarcolemmal potassium channel activity and late sodium current thus impacting cardiac repolarization and the heart rate-corrected QT (QTc). However, the relationship between IGFs and IGFBP-3 with the QTc interval in humans, is unknown.

Objectives

To examine the association of IGFs and IGFBP-3 with QTc interval in an older age population-based cohort.

Methods

Participants were from the 1946 Medical Research Council (MRC) National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) British birth cohort. Biomarkers from blood samples at age 53 and 60-64 years (y, exposures) included IGF-I/II, IGFBP-3, IGF-I/IGFBP-3 ratio and the change (Δ) in marker levels between the 60-64 and 53y sampled timepoints. QTc (outcome) was recorded from electrocardiograms at the 60-64y timepoint. Generalized linear multivariable models with adjustments for relevant demographic and clinical factors, were used for complete-cases and repeated after multiple imputation.

Results

One thousand four hundred forty-eight participants were included (48.3% men; QTc mean 414 ms interquartile range 26 ms). Univariate analysis revealed an association between low IGF-I and IGF-I/IGFBP-3 ratio at 60-64y with QTc prolongation [respectively: β -0.30 ms/nmol/L, (95% confidence intervals -0.44, -0.17), p < 0.001; β-28.9 ms/unit (-41.93, -15.50), p < 0.001], but not with IGF-II or IGFBP-3. No association with QTc was found for IGF biomarkers sampled at 53y, however both ΔIGF-I and ΔIGF-I/IGFBP-3 ratio were negatively associated with QTc [β -0.04 ms/nmol/L (-0.08, -0.008), p = 0.019; β -2.44 ms/unit (-4.17, -0.67), p = 0.007] while ΔIGF-II and ΔIGFBP-3 showed no association. In fully adjusted complete case and imputed models (reporting latter) low IGF-I and IGF-I/IGFBP-3 ratio at 60-64y [β -0.21 ms/nmol/L (-0.39, -0.04), p = 0.017; β -20.14 ms/unit (-36.28, -3.99), p = 0.015], steeper decline in ΔIGF-I [β -0.05 ms/nmol/L/10 years (-0.10, -0.002), p = 0.042] and shallower rise in ΔIGF-I/IGFBP-3 ratio over a decade [β -2.16 ms/unit/10 years (-4.23, -0.09), p = 0.041], were all independently associated with QTc prolongation. Independent associations with QTc were also confirmed for other previously known covariates: female sex [β 9.65 ms (6.65, 12.65), p < 0.001], increased left ventricular mass [β 0.04 ms/g (0.02, 0.06), p < 0.001] and blood potassium levels [β -5.70 ms/mmol/L (-10.23, -1.18) p = 0.014].

Conclusion

Over a decade, in an older age population-based cohort, declining levels and bioavailability of IGF-I associate with prolongation of the QTc interval. As QTc prolongation associates with increased risk for sudden death even in apparently healthy people, further research into the antiarrhythmic effects of IGF-I on cardiomyocytes is warranted.

Is carotid artery atherosclerosis associated with poor cognitive function assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination? A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To determine associations between carotid atherosclerosis assessed by ultrasound and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), a measure of global cognitive function.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched up to 1 May 2020 to identify studies assessed the associations between asymptomatic carotid atherosclerosis and the MMSE. Studies reporting OR for associations between carotid plaque or intima-media thickness (cIMT) and dichotomised MMSE were meta-analysed. Publication bias of included studies was assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 31 of 378 reviewed articles met the inclusion criteria; together they included 27 738 participants (age 35-95 years). Fifteen studies reported some evidence of a positive association between measures of atherosclerosis and poorer cognitive performance in either cross-sectional or longitudinal studies. The remaining 16 studies found no evidence of an association. Seven cross-sectional studies provided data suitable for meta-analysis. Meta-analysis of three studies that assessed carotid plaque (n=3549) showed an association between the presence of plaque and impaired MMSE with pooled estimate for the OR (95% CI) being 2.72 (0.85 to 4.59). An association between cIMT and impaired MMSE was reported in six studies (n=4443) with a pooled estimate for the OR (95% CI) being 1.13 (1.04 to 1.22). Heterogeneity across studies was moderate to small (carotid plaque with MMSE, I2=40.9%; cIMT with MMSE, I2=4.9%). There was evidence of publication bias for carotid plaque studies (p=0.02), but not cIMT studies (p=0.2).

CONCLUSIONS

There is some, limited cross-sectional evidence indicating an association between cIMT and poorer global cognitive function assessed with MMSE. Estimates of the association between plaques and poor cognition are too imprecise to draw firm conclusions and evidence from studies of longitudinal associations between carotid atherosclerosis and MMSE is limited.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021240077.

The UK Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and diet, physical activity, and sleep during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from eight longitudinal population surveys

BACKGROUND

In March 2020, the UK implemented the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (furlough) to minimise job losses. Our aim was to investigate associations between furlough and diet, physical activity, and sleep during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We analysed data on 25,092 participants aged 16-66 years from eight UK longitudinal studies. Changes in employment, including being furloughed, were based on employment status before and during the first lockdown. Health behaviours included fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and sleep. Study-specific estimates obtained using modified Poisson regression, adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics and pre-pandemic health and health behaviours, were statistically pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Associations were also stratified by sex, age, and education.

RESULTS

Across studies, between 8 and 25% of participants were furloughed. Compared to those who remained working, furloughed workers were slightly less likely to be physically inactive (RR = 0.85; [95% CI 0.75-0.97]; I ² = 59%) and did not differ overall with respect to low fruit and vegetable consumption or atypical sleep, although findings for sleep were heterogenous (I ² = 85%). In stratified analyses, furlough was associated with lower fruit and vegetable consumption among males (RR = 1.11; [1.01-1.22]; I ² = 0%) but not females (RR = 0.84; [0.68-1.04]; I ² = 65%). Considering changes in quantity, furloughed workers were more likely than those who remained working to report increases in fruit and vegetable consumption, exercise, and hours of sleep.

CONCLUSIONS

Those furloughed exhibited similar health behaviours to those who remained in employment during the initial stages of the pandemic. There was little evidence to suggest that adoption of such social protection policies in the post-pandemic recovery period and during future economic crises had adverse effects on population health behaviours.

Circulating Metabolome and White Matter Hyperintensities in Women and Men

BACKGROUND

White matter hyperintensities (WMH), identified on T2-weighted magnetic resonance images of the human brain as areas of enhanced brightness, are a major risk factor of stroke, dementia, and death. There are no large-scale studies testing associations between WMH and circulating metabolites.

METHODS

We studied up to 9290 individuals (50.7% female, average age 61 years) from 15 populations of 8 community-based cohorts. WMH volume was quantified from T2-weighted or fluid-attenuated inversion recovery images or as hypointensities on T1-weighted images. Circulating metabolomic measures were assessed with mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Associations between WMH and metabolomic measures were tested by fitting linear regression models in the pooled sample and in sex-stratified and statin treatment-stratified subsamples. Our basic models were adjusted for age, sex, age×sex, and technical covariates, and our fully adjusted models were also adjusted for statin treatment, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, smoking, body mass index, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Population-specific results were meta-analyzed using the fixed-effect inverse variance-weighted method. Associations with false discovery rate (FDR)-adjusted P values (PFDR)<0.05 were considered significant.

RESULTS

In the meta-analysis of results from the basic models, we identified 30 metabolomic measures associated with WMH (PFDR<0.05), 7 of which remained significant in the fully adjusted models. The most significant association was with higher level of hydroxyphenylpyruvate in men (PFDR.full.adj=1.40×10-7) and in both the pooled sample (PFDR.full.adj=1.66×10-4) and statin-untreated (PFDR.full.adj=1.65×10-6) subsample. In men, hydroxyphenylpyruvate explained 3% to 14% of variance in WMH. In men and the pooled sample, WMH were also associated with lower levels of lysophosphatidylcholines and hydroxysphingomyelins and a larger diameter of low-density lipoprotein particles, likely arising from higher triglyceride to total lipids and lower cholesteryl ester to total lipids ratios within these particles. In women, the only significant association was with higher level of glucuronate (PFDR=0.047).

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating metabolomic measures, including multiple lipid measures (eg, lysophosphatidylcholines, hydroxysphingomyelins, low-density lipoprotein size and composition) and nonlipid metabolites (eg, hydroxyphenylpyruvate, glucuronate), associate with WMH in a general population of middle-aged and older adults. Some metabolomic measures show marked sex specificities and explain a sizable proportion of WMH variance.

Study protocol: MyoFit46-the cardiac sub-study of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development

BACKGROUND

The life course accumulation of overt and subclinical myocardial dysfunction contributes to older age mortality, frailty, disability and loss of independence. The Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) is the world's longest running continued surveillance birth cohort providing a unique opportunity to understand life course determinants of myocardial dysfunction as part of MyoFit46-the cardiac sub-study of the NSHD.

METHODS

We aim to recruit 550 NSHD participants of approximately 75 years+ to undertake high-density surface electrocardiographic imaging (ECGI) and stress perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR). Through comprehensive myocardial tissue characterization and 4-dimensional flow we hope to better understand the burden of clinical and subclinical cardiovascular disease. Supercomputers will be used to combine the multi-scale ECGI and CMR datasets per participant. Rarely available, prospectively collected whole-of-life data on exposures, traditional risk factors and multimorbidity will be studied to identify risk trajectories, critical change periods, mediators and cumulative impacts on the myocardium.

DISCUSSION

By combining well curated, prospectively acquired longitudinal data of the NSHD with novel CMR-ECGI data and sharing these results and associated pipelines with the CMR community, MyoFit46 seeks to transform our understanding of how early, mid and later-life risk factor trajectories interact to determine the state of cardiovascular health in older age.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Prospectively registered on ClinicalTrials.gov with trial ID: 19/LO/1774 Multimorbidity Life-Course Approach to Myocardial Health- A Cardiac Sub-Study of the MCRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD).

Cardiovascular risk prediction in type 2 diabetes: a comparison of 22 risk scores in primary care settings

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We aimed to compare the performance of risk prediction scores for CVD (i.e., coronary heart disease and stroke), and a broader definition of CVD including atrial fibrillation and heart failure (CVD+), in individuals with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Scores were identified through a literature review and were included irrespective of the type of predicted cardiovascular outcome or the inclusion of individuals with type 2 diabetes. Performance was assessed in a contemporary, representative sample of 168,871 UK-based individuals with type 2 diabetes (age ≥18 years without pre-existing CVD+). Missing observations were addressed using multiple imputation.

RESULTS

We evaluated 22 scores: 13 derived in the general population and nine in individuals with type 2 diabetes. The Systemic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) CVD rule derived in the general population performed best for both CVD (C statistic 0.67 [95% CI 0.67, 0.67]) and CVD+ (C statistic 0.69 [95% CI 0.69, 0.70]). The C statistic of the remaining scores ranged from 0.62 to 0.67 for CVD, and from 0.64 to 0.69 for CVD+. Calibration slopes (1 indicates perfect calibration) ranged from 0.38 (95% CI 0.37, 0.39) to 0.74 (95% CI 0.72, 0.76) for CVD, and from 0.41 (95% CI 0.40, 0.42) to 0.88 (95% CI 0.86, 0.90) for CVD+. A simple recalibration process considerably improved the performance of the scores, with calibration slopes now ranging between 0.96 and 1.04 for CVD. Scores with more predictors did not outperform scores with fewer predictors: for CVD+, QRISK3 (19 variables) had a C statistic of 0.68 (95% CI 0.68, 0.69), compared with SCORE CVD (six variables) which had a C statistic of 0.69 (95% CI 0.69, 0.70). Scores specific to individuals with diabetes did not discriminate better than scores derived in the general population: the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) scores performed significantly worse than SCORE CVD (p value <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

CVD risk prediction scores could not accurately identify individuals with type 2 diabetes who experienced a CVD event in the 10 years of follow-up. All 22 evaluated models had a comparable and modest discriminative ability.

Inflammatory status, body composition and ethnic differences in bone mineral density: The Southall and Brent Revisited Study

Ethnic differences in bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk are well-described; the aim of this study was to investigate whether central adiposity or inflammatory status contribute to these ethnic differences in BMD in later life. The Southall and Brent Revisited study (SABRE) is a UK-based tri-ethnic cohort of men and women of European, South Asian or African Caribbean origin. At the most recent SABRE follow-up (2014-2018), in addition to measures of cardiometabolic phenotype, participants had dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) bone and body composition scans. Multiple linear regression was used to determine whether markers of body composition, central adiposity or inflammatory status contributed to ethnic differences in BMD. In men and women, age- and height-adjusted BMD at all sites was higher in African Caribbeans compared to Europeans (femoral neck: standardised β (95% confidence interval): men: 1.00SD (0.75, 1.25); women: 0.77SD (0.56, 0.99)). South Asian men had higher BMD than European men at the hip (femoral neck: 0.34SD (95%CI: 0.15, 0.54)). Although adjustment for body mass index (BMI) or lean mass index (LMI) at the lumbar spine reduced the size of the difference in BMD between African Caribbean and European men (age and height adjusted difference: 0.35SD (0.08, 0.62); age and BMI adjusted difference: 0.25SD (-0.02, 0.51)), in both men and women ethnic differences remained after adjustment for measures of central adiposity (estimated visceral adipose tissue mass (VAT mass) and android to gynoid ratio) and inflammation (interleukin-6 (logIL-6) and C-reactive protein (logCRP)). Furthermore, in women, we observed ethnic differences in the relationship between BMI (overall interaction: p = 0.04), LMI (p = 0.04) or VAT mass (p = 0.009) and standardised lumbar spine BMD. In this tri-ethnic cohort, ethnic differences in BMD at the femoral neck, total hip or lumbar spine were not explained by BMI, central adiposity or inflammatory status. Given ethnic differences in fracture incidence, it is important to further investigate why ethnic differences in BMD exist.

Validation of lipid-related therapeutic targets for coronary heart disease prevention using human genetics

Drug target Mendelian randomization (MR) studies use DNA sequence variants in or near a gene encoding a drug target, that alter the target's expression or function, as a tool to anticipate the effect of drug action on the same target. Here we apply MR to prioritize drug targets for their causal relevance for coronary heart disease (CHD). The targets are further prioritized using independent replication, co-localization, protein expression profiles and data from the British National Formulary and clinicaltrials.gov. Out of the 341 drug targets identified through their association with blood lipids (HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides), we robustly prioritize 30 targets that might elicit beneficial effects in the prevention or treatment of CHD, including NPC1L1 and PCSK9, the targets of drugs used in CHD prevention. We discuss how this approach can be generalized to other targets, disease biomarkers and endpoints to help prioritize and validate targets during the drug development process.

Myocardial strain by 3D-speckle tracking echocardiography predicts long-term risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the general population: the Southall And Brent Revisited (SABRE) study

Background

Both left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF) and Global Longitudinal Strain (GLS) by 2D-echocardiography predict mortality and cardiac events, and GLS may be superior to EF. 3D-speckle tracking echocardiography (3D-STE), a recently validated method, allows simultaneous assessment of EF, GLS and principal tangential strain (PTS), but its prognostic utility in the general population is unknown.

Purpose

We hypothesized that 3D-STE derived LV myocardial strains predict a composite of cardiac endpoints, and that GLS would be a better prognostic marker than EF. We also investigated the utility of PTS compared with GLS and EF.

Methods

A total of 529 individuals (69±6y; 76.6% male) from SABRE study, a UK-based tri-ethnic community cohort, underwent health examinations. The association between 3D-STE EF or multidirectional myocardial strains and a composite cardiac endpoints comprising coronary heart disease (fatal/non-fatal), heart failure hospitalization, new-onset arrhythmia was determined using Cox proportional hazards models with and without adjustment for potential confounders and Harrell's C statistics were calculated. Associations with cardiovascular (CV) mortality was examined as a secondary objective. The incremental value of 3D-STE EF, GLS and PTS in improving CV risk stratification by the established Framingham risk score (FRS) was investigated using a likelihood ratio test on a series of nested Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

During follow-up (median, 8y), there were 56 composite cardiac endpoints and 24 CV deaths. EF and radial strain were negatively associated, while GLS, global circumferential strain and PTS were positively associated with the composite cardiac endpoints in unadjusted models (Table 1). Associations were only marginally affected by adjustment for potential confounders although confidence intervals of the estimate increased slightly (Table 1). There was little difference in the C-statistics for EF, GLS or PTS for the composite cardiac endpoints (Table 1). Associations with CV mortality were generally weaker and only GLS showed some evidence of a positive association with CV mortality in unadjusted and adjusted models (Table 1). Compared to EF and GLS, PTS most improved the predictive value (model fit) of FRS for composite cardiac endpoints (Table 2). None of the measures convincingly improved calibration for CV mortality.

Conclusions

3D-STE-derived LV myocardial strains predicted adverse cardiac events and CV mortality in a multi-ethnic sample of the UK general population. PTS/3D-strain was an independent predictor of cardiac events with some evidence of it being a slightly better predictor than conventional indices of LV function (GLS and EF). Future prospective studies are needed to confirm and extend these findings.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): The main SABRE study is supported by the Wellcome Trust and BHF.

Arterial stiffness increase from adolescence to young adulthood is accelerated by smoking and alcohol use

Background

Smoking tobacco and drinking alcohol are associated with increased arterial stiffness, a critical intermediate endpoint for cardiovascular disease, in adults and in teenagers. The relationship between these risky behaviours and changes in arterial stiffness from late adolescence to early adulthood is not known.

Purpose

To investigate associations between smoking and drinking habits and the change in arterial stiffness between ages 17 and 24 using a large population-based cohort.

Methods

Participants underwent repeated measurements of arterial stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV)), anthropometrics, resting blood pressure and blood biomarkers, at ages 17 and 24 years. Participants were grouped and scored by alcohol (never, medium intensity (MI): ≤4 drinks on a typical day of drinking, high intensity (HI): &gt;5) and smoking (never, past, MI, &lt;10 cigarettes a day HI, ≥10) exposure at both clinics. Average scores between clinics were taken (scores 0–5) and composite alcohol (never, MI, HI) and smoking (never, past, MI, HI) groups were created. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to investigate associations between smoking/drinking habits and change in cfPWV from 17 to 24 years (ΔPWV). Associations were adjusted for age, gender, and socioeconomic status (model 1). Model 2 was additionally adjusted for body mass index, systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, glucose, and C-reactive protein at age 24. Data are presented as means (95% confidence intervals).

Results

1,655 participants (1,013 females and 642 males) had cfPWV recorded at both ages. cfPWV increased from 17 to 24 years in both women (ΔPWV 0.56m/s (0.50, 0.62), p&lt;0.001) and men (0.65m/s (0.56, 0.74), p&lt;0.001). There was a 0.05m/s (0.00, 0.10) increase in ΔPWV per 1 unit increase in average alcohol score (p=0.039). Compared to never drinkers, ΔPWV increased by 0.18m/s (−0.03, 0.38) in MI (p=0.09), and 0.21m/s (−0.01, 0.41) in HI drinkers (p=0.055). There was no association between ΔPWV and average smoking score (β=0.03m/s (−0.03, 0.08), p=0.4). Compared to never smokers, HI smokers had a slightly greater ΔPWV (0.17m/s (−0.08, 0.42), p=0.18). After stratifying by sex, this difference was evident in women (0.32m/s (0.04, 0.60), p=0.028) while no association was seen in men (−0.12m/s (−0.59, 0.35), p=0.6). No differences were found between never-smokers and ex-smokers (difference = 0.04m/s (−0.08, 0.16), p=0.5). Adjustment for potential confounders (model 2) did not attenuate these associations. Figure shows estimated marginal means for ΔPWV between (a) alcohol and (b) smoking groups from model 1. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

Conclusion

Smoking and alcohol use in young adulthood is associated with an accelerated increase in arterial stiffness, with evidence of a graded adverse association for alcohol. Our findings also suggest that adverse effects of smoking in youth may be reversible with smoking cessation.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation

Impact of lockdown on key workers: findings from the COVID-19 survey in four UK national longitudinal studies

BACKGROUND

Key workers played a pivotal role during the national lockdown in the UK's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although protective measures have been taken, the impact of the pandemic on key workers is yet to be fully elucidated.

METHODS

Participants were from four longitudinal age-homogeneous British cohorts (born in 2001, 1990, 1970 and 1958). A web-based survey provided outcome data during the first UK national lockdown (May 2020) on COVID-19 infection status, changes in financial situation, trust in government, conflict with people around, household composition, psychological distress, alcohol consumption, smoking and sleep duration. Generalised linear models with logit link assessed the association between being a key worker and the above outcomes. Adjustment was made for cohort design, non-response, sex, ethnicity, adult socioeconomic position (SEP), childhood SEP, the presence of a chronic illness and receipt of a shielding letter. Meta-analyses were performed across the cohorts.

FINDINGS

13 736 participants were included. During lockdown, being a key worker was associated with increased chances of being infected with COVID-19 (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.68) and experiencing conflict with people around (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.37). However, key workers were less likely to be worse off financially (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.65), to consume more alcohol (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.98) or to smoke more (OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.80) during lockdown. Interestingly, being a key worker was not associated with psychological distress (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.05).

INTERPRETATION

Being a key worker during the first UK COVID-19 lockdown was a double-edged sword, with both benefits and downsides. The UK government had the basic duty to protect its key workers from SARS-CoV-2 infection, but it may have failed to do so, and there is an urgent need to rectify this in light of the ongoing third wave.

Cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) as a drug target for cardiovascular disease

Development of cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) inhibitors for coronary heart disease (CHD) has yet to deliver licensed medicines. To distinguish compound from drug target failure, we compared evidence from clinical trials and drug target Mendelian randomization of CETP protein concentration, comparing this to Mendelian randomization of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9). We show that previous failures of CETP inhibitors are likely compound related, as illustrated by significant degrees of between-compound heterogeneity in effects on lipids, blood pressure, and clinical outcomes observed in trials. On-target CETP inhibition, assessed through Mendelian randomization, is expected to reduce the risk of CHD, heart failure, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease, while increasing the risk of age-related macular degeneration. In contrast, lower PCSK9 concentration is anticipated to decrease the risk of CHD, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, multiple sclerosis, and stroke, while potentially increasing the risk of Alzheimer's disease and asthma. Due to distinct effects on lipoprotein metabolite profiles, joint inhibition of CETP and PCSK9 may provide added benefit. In conclusion, we provide genetic evidence that CETP is an effective target for CHD prevention but with a potential on-target adverse effect on age-related macular degeneration.

Socioeconomic inequalities in prevalence and development of multimorbidity across adulthood: A longitudinal analysis of the MRC 1946 National Survey of Health and Development in the UK

BACKGROUND

We aimed to estimate multimorbidity trajectories and quantify socioeconomic inequalities based on childhood and adulthood socioeconomic position (SEP) in the risks and rates of multimorbidity accumulation across adulthood.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Participants from the UK 1946 National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) birth cohort study who attended the age 36 years assessment in 1982 and any one of the follow-up assessments at ages 43, 53, 63, and 69 years (N = 3,723, 51% males). Information on 18 health conditions was based on a combination of self-report, biomarkers, health records, and prescribed medications. We estimated multimorbidity trajectories and delineated socioeconomic inequalities (based on childhood and adulthood social class and highest education) in multimorbidity at each age and in longitudinal trajectories. Multimorbidity increased with age (0.7 conditions at 36 years to 3.7 at 69 years). Multimorbidity accumulation was nonlinear, accelerating with age at the rate of 0.08 conditions/year (95% CI 0.07 to 0.09, p < 0.001) at 36 to 43 years to 0.19 conditions/year (95% CI 0.18 to 0.20, p < 0.001) at 63 to 69 years. At all ages, the most socioeconomically disadvantaged had 1.2 to 1.4 times greater number of conditions on average compared to the most advantaged. The most disadvantaged by each socioeconomic indicator experienced an additional 0.39 conditions (childhood social class), 0.83 (adult social class), and 1.08 conditions (adult education) at age 69 years, independent of all other socioeconomic indicators. Adverse adulthood SEP was associated with more rapid accumulation of multimorbidity, resulting in 0.49 excess conditions in partly/unskilled compared to professional/intermediate individuals between 63 and 69 years. Disadvantaged childhood social class, independently of adulthood SEP, was associated with accelerated multimorbidity trajectories from age 53 years onwards. Study limitations include that the NSHD cohort is composed of individuals of white European heritage only, and findings may not be generalizable to the non-white British population of the same generation and did not account for other important dimensions of SEP such as income and wealth.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals have earlier onset and more rapid accumulation of multimorbidity resulting in widening inequalities into old age, with independent contributions from both childhood and adulthood SEP.