Current practices in the identification of critical habitat for threatened species

Immune interactions and heterogeneity in transmission drives the pathogen-mediated invasion of grey squirrels in the UK

Mathematical models highlighted the importance of pathogen-mediated invasion, with the replacement of red squirrels by squirrelpox virus (SQPV) carrying grey squirrels in the UK, a well-known example. In this study, we combine new epidemiological models, with a range of infection characteristics, with recent longitudinal field and experimental studies on the SQPV dynamics in red and grey squirrel populations to better infer the mechanistic basis of the disease interaction. A key finding is that a model with either partial immunity or waning immunity and reinfection, where individuals become seropositive on the second exposure to infection, that up to now has been shown in experimental data only, can capture the key aspects of the field study observations. By fitting to SQPV epidemic observations in isolated red squirrel populations, we can infer that SQPV transmission between red squirrels is significantly (4×) higher than the transmission between grey squirrels and as a result our model shows that disease-mediated replacement of red squirrels by greys is considerably more rapid than replacement in the absence of SQPV. Our findings recover the key results of the previous model studies, which highlights the value of simple strategic models that are appropriate when there are limited data, but also emphasise the likely complexity of immune interactions in wildlife disease and how models can help infer disease processes from field data.

Mapping multiscale breeding bird species distributions across the United States and evaluating their conservation applications

Species distribution models are vital to management decisions that require understanding habitat use patterns, particularly for species of conservation concern. However, the production of distribution maps for individual species is often hampered by data scarcity, and existing species maps are rarely spatially validated due to limited occurrence data. Furthermore, community-level maps based on stacked species distribution models lack important community assemblage information (e.g., competitive exclusion) relevant to conservation. Thus, multispecies, guild, or community models are often used in conservation practice instead. To address these limitations, we aimed to generate fine-scale, spatially continuous, nationwide maps for species represented in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) between 1992 and 2019. We developed ensemble models for each species at three spatial resolutions-0.5, 2.5, and 5 km-across the conterminous United States. We also compared species richness patterns from stacked single-species models with those of 19 functional guilds developed using the same data to assess the similarity between predictions. We successfully modeled 192 bird species at 5-km resolution, 160 species at 2.5-km resolution, and 80 species at 0.5-km resolution. However, the species we could model represent only 28%-56% of species found in the conterminous US BBSs across resolutions owing to data limitations. We found that stacked maps and guild maps generally had high correlations across resolutions (median = 84%), but spatial agreement varied regionally by resolution and was most pronounced between the East and West at the 5-km resolution. The spatial differences between our stacked maps and guild maps illustrate the importance of spatial validation in conservation planning. Overall, our species maps are useful for single-species conservation and can support fine-scale decision-making across the United States and support community-level conservation when used in tandem with guild maps. However, there remain data scarcity issues for many species of conservation concern when using the BBS for single-species models.

A multistate Langevin diffusion for inferring behavior-specific habitat selection and utilization distributions

The identification of important habitat and the behavior(s) associated with it is critical to conservation and place-based management decisions. Behavior also links life-history requirements and habitat use, which are key to understanding why animals use certain habitats. Animal population studies often use tracking data to quantify space use and habitat selection, but they typically either ignore movement behavior (e.g., foraging, migrating, nesting) or adopt a two-stage approach that can induce bias and fail to propagate uncertainty. We develop a habitat-driven Langevin diffusion for animals that exhibit distinct movement behavior states, thereby providing a novel single-stage statistical method for inferring behavior-specific habitat selection and utilization distributions in continuous time. Practitioners can customize, fit, assess, and simulate our integrated model using the provided R package. Simulation experiments demonstrated that the model worked well under a range of sampling scenarios as long as observations were of sufficient temporal resolution. Our simulations also demonstrated the importance of accounting for different behaviors and the misleading inferences that can result when these are ignored. We provide case studies using plains zebra (Equus quagga) and Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) telemetry data. In the zebra example, our model identified distinct "encamped" and "exploratory" states, where the encamped state was characterized by strong selection for grassland and avoidance of other vegetation types, which may represent selection for foraging resources. In the sea lion example, our model identified distinct movement behavior modes typically associated with this marine central-place forager and, unlike previous analyses, found foraging-type movements to be associated with steeper offshore slopes characteristic of the continental shelf, submarine canyons, and seamounts that are believed to enhance prey concentrations. This is the first single-stage approach for inferring behavior-specific habitat selection and utilization distributions from tracking data that can be readily implemented with user-friendly software. As certain behaviors are often more relevant to specific conservation or management objectives, practitioners can use our model to help inform the identification and prioritization of important habitats. Moreover, by linking individual-level movement behaviors to population-level spatial processes, the multistate Langevin diffusion can advance inferences at the intersection of population, movement, and landscape ecology.

Gaps in mammal conservation in China: An analysis with a framework based on minimum area requirements

Climate change, habitat loss, and human disturbance are major threats to biodiversity. Protecting habitats plays a pivotal role in biodiversity conservation, and there is a global imperative to establish an effective system of protected areas (PAs) to implement habitat conservation and halt biodiversity decline. However, the protected patch size of habitat for a species is just as important for biodiversity conservation as the expansion of areas already under protection. In China, conservation management is often carried out based on administrative divisions. Therefore, here, an analytical conservation management framework was developed based on administrative divisions to assess whether the current network of PAs can effectively meet species' conservation needs using the minimum area requirements (MARs) of species as criteria for medium and large-sized mammals in China. This study found that the MAR of medium and large-sized mammals was larger in the northwest and smaller in the southeast, while taking the Hu line as the dividing line. Precipitation seasonality, elevation, annual mean temperature, and annual precipitation are the main environmental factors driving the distribution of a species MAR. Compared with MAR for each species, the maximum protected patch size of habitat is severely undersized in most provinces where those species primarily distribute, and this is particularly true for large carnivores and threatened species. The densely populated provinces of eastern China are particularly affected by this. The present study's framework can identify the provinces needing to expand PAs or implement other effective area-based conservation measures and habitat restoration. This analytical framework is also relevant for biodiversity conservation in different taxa and regions around the globe.

Ground Validation Reveals Limited Applicability of Species Distribution Models for Dakota Skipper (Hesperia dacotae, Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae) Recovery Efforts in Canada

Species distribution models (SDMs) use spatial relationships between species occurrence and habitat (predictor) variables to generate maps of habitat suitability across a region of interest. These maps are frequently used in recovery planning efforts for endangered species, but they are influenced by data availability, selection of predictor variables, and choice of model type. Ground validation is necessary to robustly evaluate map accuracy, but it is rarely done, making it difficult to determine which modeling approach is best-suited for a given species or region. To address this uncertainty, we used two SDM types (Maxent and GLM) and two methods of selecting predictor variables to build four SDMs for an endangered prairie butterfly (Dakota skipper, Hesperia dacotae) in two regions of Manitoba, Canada. We then conducted field-based habitat suitability assessments at 120 locations in each region to enable direct comparisons of model output and accuracy. We found that soil type and surrounding landcover (grassland versus cropland) were important predictors of species occurrence regardless of region, predictor selection method, or model type. Cross-validation statistics indicated that most SDMs performed well (AUC > 0.7), but ground validation revealed that the habitat suitability maps they generated were inaccurate (Cohen's kappa < 0.4). Maxent models produced more accurate maps than GLMs, likely because false species absences adversely affected the latter, but only one Maxent-based map was accurate enough to help locate sites for future field investigations (Cohen's kappa > 0.3). Our results emphasize the importance of ground-validating SDM-based habitat suitability maps before incorporating them into species recovery plans.

Distribution model transferability for a wide-ranging species, the Gray Wolf

Using existing data can be a reliable and cost-effective way to predict species distributions, and particularly useful for recovering or expanding species. We developed a current gray wolf (Canis lupus) distribution model for the western Great Lakes region, USA, and evaluated the spatial transferability of single-state models to the region. This study is the first assessment of transferability in a wide-ranging carnivore, as well as one of few developed for large spatial extents. We collected 3500 wolf locations from winter surveys in Minnesota (2017–2019), Wisconsin (2019–2020), and Michigan (2017–2020). We included 10 variables: proportion of natural cover, pastures, and crops; distance to natural cover, agriculture, developed land, and water; major and minor road density; and snowfall (1-km res.). We created a regional ensemble distribution by weight-averaging eight models based on their performance. We also developed single-state models, and estimated spatial transferability using two approaches: state cross-validation and extrapolation. We assessed performance by quantifying correlations, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), sensitivities, and two niche similarity indices. The regional area estimated to be most suitable for wolves during winter (threshold = maximum sensitivity/specificity) was 106,465 km² (MN = 48,083 km², WI = 27,757 km², MI = 30,625 km²) and correctly predicted 88% of wolf locations analyzed. Increasing natural cover and distance to crops were consistently important for determining regional and single-state wolf distribution. Extrapolation (vs. cross-validation) produced results with the greatest performance metrics, and were most similar to the regional model, yet good internal performance was unrelated to greater extrapolation performance. Factors influencing species distributions are scale-dependent and can vary across areas due to behavioral plasticity. When extending inferences beyond the current occurrence of individuals, assessing variation in ecology such as habitat selection, as well as methodological factors including model performance, will be critical to avoid poor scientific interpretations and develop effective conservation applications. In particular, accurate distribution models for recovering or recovered carnivores can be used to develop plans for habitat management, quantify potential of unoccupied habitat, assess connectivity modeling, and mitigate conflict, facilitating long-term species persistence.

Two species, one island: Retrospective analysis of threatened fauna translocations with divergent outcomes

Translocations are globally a popular tool used with the intention of improving threatened species conservation and re-establishing ecosystem function. While practitioners strive for successful outcomes the failure rate of translocations continues to be high. We demonstrate how predictive modelling can contribute to more informed decision making and hence potentially improve the success rate of translocation programs. Two species, the Djoongari (Shark Bay mouse) Pseudomys fieldi and the golden bandicoot Isoodon auratus barrowensis, were introduced independently to Doole Island in the Exmouth Gulf of Western Australia. We used population viability analysis to critique the outcomes of these translocations and provide an example of how this tool can be incorporated with expert knowledge to predict likely outcomes of translocations. Djoongari did not establish on the island after seven translocations over nine years, while golden bandicoots established a population after just one release event. Retrospective population viability analysis (of data that was unavailable prior to the translocations) predicted and clarified the reasons behind the outcomes of both translocations. Golden bandicoots have considerably higher demographic plasticity than Djoongari, which were never likely to establish on the island. We conclude that the failure of the Djoongari translocation was due to interactions between sparse habitat, native predators and cyclonic storm surges, whereas golden bandicoots have demonstrated habitat flexibility and an ability to recover from multiple natural disasters. As a result we (1) remind conservation planners of the importance of quantifying likely refuges and habitat availability at release sites, (2) suggest practitioners consider how different threats (including natural disasters) may interact at potential release sites and (3) advocate for the incorporation of predictive modelling during the planning stages of translocations, particularly for conservation introductions where no precedent exists for the species’ survival at a particular location.

Social survival: Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) use social structure to partition ecological niches within proposed critical habitat

Animal culture and social bonds are relevant to wildlife conservation because they influence patterns of geography, behavior, and strategies of survival. Numerous examples of socially-driven habitat partitioning and ecological-niche specialization can be found among vertebrates, including toothed whales. But such social-ecological dynamics, described here as ‘social niche partitioning’, are not known among baleen whales, whose societies—particularly on foraging grounds—are largely perceived as unstructured and incidental to matters of habitat use and conservation. However, through 16 years of behavioral observations and photo-identifications of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) feeding within a fjord system in the Canadian Pacific (primarily within Gitga’at First Nation waters), we have documented long-term pair bonds (up to 12 years) as well as a complex societal structure, which corresponds closely to persistent patterns in feeding strategy, long-term site fidelity (extended occupancy and annual rate of return up to 75%), specific geographic preferences within the fjord system, and other forms of habitat use. Randomization tests of network congruency and clustering algorithms were used to test for overlap in patterns of social structure and habitat use, which confirmed the occurrence of social niche partitioning on the feeding grounds of this baleen whale species. In addition, we document the extensive practice of group bubble net feeding in Pacific Canada. This coordinated feeding behavior was found to strongly mediate the social structure and habitat use within this humpback whale society. Additionally, during our 2004–2019 study, we observed a shift in social network structure in 2010–2012, which corresponded with environmental and demographic shifts including a sudden decline in the population’s calving rate. Our findings indicate that the social lives of humpback whales, and perhaps baleen whales generally, are more complex than previously supposed and should be a primary consideration in the assessment of potential impacts to important habitat.

Seasonal habitat suitability models for a threatened species: the Gunnison sage-grouse

Abstract ContextThe Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) has experienced range-wide declines and has been listed as Threatened by the USA Fish and Wildlife Service to receive protections under the USA Endangered Species Act. A draft Recovery Plan was recently completed. No seasonal habitat models have been developed for the small isolated populations. AimsTo develop a habitat suitability model that was collaboratively developed between modellers and conservation practitioners to predict the probability of use by Gunnison sage-grouse during the breeding and summer seasons in designated occupied critical habitat, and extrapolate to adjacent designated unoccupied critical habitat. MethodsWe captured, marked and tracked Gunnison sage-grouse in nine different studies spanning 25 years. We used a suite of biotic, abiotic and vegetation local-level and population-scale covariates in a use-available resource selection function to develop models that predict the probability of use by Gunnison sage-grouse. Key resultsWe used 9140 Gunnison sage-grouse locations from 406 individual birds to develop nine resource selection models for occupied habitat and extrapolated model predictions to adjacent unoccupied critical habitat in five small isolated Gunnison sage-grouse populations. A majority of our models validated well. ConclusionsWe report the first two-season resource use-based habitat suitability models for five of six small isolated Gunnison sage-grouse populations. Because of the unique habitat use by Gunnison sage-grouse in each population, we recommend that resource managers strategically target management actions in individual populations and avoid ‘one-size-fits-all’ habitat management prescriptions. ImplicationsOur models will assist managers in the identification of seasonal habitats within populations to target management actions for Gunnison sage-grouse recovery.

Ten bridges on the road to recovering Canada’s endangered species

Wildlife is declining around the world. Many developed nations have enacted legislation on endangered species protection and provide funding for wildlife recovery. Protecting endangered species is also supported by the public and judiciary. Yet, despite what appear as enabling conditions, wild species continue to decline. Our paper explores pathways to endangered species recovery by analyzing the barriers that have been identified in Canada, the United States, and Australia. We summarize these findings based on Canada’s Species at Risk Conservation Cycle (assessment, protection, recovery planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation) and then identify 10 “bridges” that could help overcome these barriers and bend our current trajectory of wildlife loss to recovery. These bridges include ecosystem approaches to recovery, building capacity for community co-governance, linking wildlife recovery to ecosystem services, and improving our storytelling about the loss and recovery of wildlife. The focus of our conclusions is the Canadian setting, but our findings can be applied in other national and subnational settings to reverse the decline of wildlife and halt extinction.

Fixing the Canadian Species at Risk Act: identifying major issues and recommendations for increasing accountability and efficiency

Since the implementation of the Canadian Species at Risk Act (SARA) in 2003, deficiencies in SARA and its application have become clear. Legislative and policy inconsistencies among responsible federal agencies and the use of a subjective approach for prioritizing species protection lead to taxonomic biases in protection. Variations in legislation among provinces/territories and the reluctance of the federal government to take actions make SARA’s application often inefficient on nonfederally managed lands. Ambiguous key terms (e.g., critical habitat) and disregard for legislated deadlines in many steps impede the efficacy of SARA. Additionally, the failure to fully recognize Indigenous knowledge and to seek Indigenous cooperation in the species protection process leads to weaker government accountability, promotes inequity, and leads to missed opportunities for partnerships. New legislative amendments with well-defined and standardized steps, including an automatic listing process, a systematic prioritization program, and clearer demands (e.g., mandatory threshold to trigger safety net/emergency order) would improve the success of species at risk protection. Moreover, a more inclusive approach that brings Indigenous representatives and independent scientists together is necessary for improving SARA’s effectiveness. These changes have the potential to transform SARA into a more powerful act towards protecting Canada’s at-risk wildlife. (The graphical abstract follows.)

Towards an Ecosystem-Based Marine Spatial Planning in the deep Mediterranean Sea

The deep sea covers about 79% of the Mediterranean basin, including habitats potentially able to deliver multiple ecosystem services and numerous resources of high economic value. Thus, the deep Mediterranean Sea represents an important frontier for marine resources exploitation, which is embedded within the European Blue Growth Strategy goals and agendas. The deep sea is crucial for the ecological functioning of the entire basin. For this reason, the deep Mediterranean deserves protection from the potential cumulative impacts derived from existent and developing human activities. Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) has been identified as key instrument for spatially allocating maritime uses in the sea space avoiding spatial conflicts between activities, and between activities and the environment. Indeed, MSP incorporates the ecosystem-based approach (EB-MSP) to balance both socio-economic and environmental objectives, in line with the Maritime Spatial Planning Directive and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Despite MSP is under implementation in Europe, the Directive is not applied yet for the managing and monitoring of the environmental status of the deep sea. In the Mediterranean, deep areas fall both in internal and territorial waters, and in High Seas, and its management framework turns out to be complicated. Moreover, a certain level of cumulative impacts in the deep Mediterranean has been already identified and likely underestimated because of paucity of knowledge related with deep-sea ecosystems. Thus, the implementation of scientific knowledge and the establishment of a sustainable management regime of deep-sea resources and space are urgent. This study aims at reflecting on the best available ecological knowledge on the deep Mediterranean to incorporate conservation objectives in EB-MSP. We propose a framework to include key ecological principles in the relevant phases of any EB-MSP processes taking in consideration existing socio-economic and conservation scenarios in the region. We add the uncertainty principle to reflect on the still unexplored and missing knowledge related to the deep Mediterranean. Here, we resume some guidelines to overcome limits and bottlenecks while ensuring protection of deep-sea ecosystems and resources in the Mediterranean Sea.

Do both habitat and species diversity provide cultural ecosystem services? A trial using geo-tagged photos

Conservation for both biodiversity and ecosystem services are an important issue worldwide. However, knowledge of their relationship remains limited. As habitat structure is strongly related to regional biodiversity, we studied cultural ecosystem services by using habitat structure as a proxy for biodiversity. Specifically, we used human preference, assessed by using photos with location information (i.e. geo-tagged digital pictures) as an index of a cultural ecosystem service. We conducted nature walks in semi-natural environments for cognitively-impaired students from a local special school and studied the photos they took during the walks. We analysed the habitat preferences inferred from the photo locations and the composition of the photos—whether they were close-up, scenic or landscape views. The results showed that levels of human preference and biodiversity, indicated by habitat structure, had a positive relationship. During spring to autumn, when levels of biological activity are higher, people tended to show more preference in close-up views (i.e. the subject of the photo was the species itself). In winter, they tended to be interested in scenic views that were not strongly influenced by species diversity. Additionally, photos taken in areas with threatened species almost always included close-up views, although not of the threatened species themselves. Areas with high species diversity therefore appeared to be more appealing to the participants. These results suggest that habitat diversity could not only contribute to biodiversity, but also provide cultural ecosystem services. Habitat conservation for semi-natural environments could be synergised for both biodiversity conservation and general human well-being.

Little Brown Bats Utilize Multiple Maternity Roosts Within Foraging Areas: Implications for Identifying Summer Habitat

Identifying habitat features that may influence the survival and fitness of threatened species is often constrained by a lack of information about the appropriate scale for habitat conservation efforts. Canada's Species at Risk Act lists little brown bats Myotis lucifugus as Endangered and there is a need to determine the scale for delineating important summer habitat features that should be protected. We used a 19-y dataset of banded little brown bats in a 15,000-km2 area of southern Yukon, Canada, to examine fidelity to roost sites and potential foraging areas. We captured and banded 4,349 bats during 208 live-trapping sessions at maternity roosts. Adult females used multiple roosts during the maternity period, separated by up to 6.1 km, within foraging areas, to which individuals exhibited fidelity. Our fidelity rates (≤ 60.5%) are the lowest, and roost-switching rates (≤ 35.5%) the greatest, reported for little brown bats. A small percentage (14.0–20.7%) of females banded as juveniles returned to their natal roosts or foraging areas as adults. We infrequently observed long-distance (25–200 km) switching to novel foraging areas (&lt; 1% of banded bats). We established bat houses to mitigate the loss of a cabin roost; 46.3% of the bats banded at the cabin occupied these houses. The longest documented period of roost fidelity was 18 y, by a female banded as an adult. Roost fidelity by returning adult females declined annually by 3.8–5.3% due to natural mortality, roost switching, or dispersal. Having a choice of multiple maternity roosts within a foraging area may permit little brown bats to select optimal microclimatic conditions throughout the maternity season. Given that fidelity to foraging areas may be higher than to specific roost sites for little brown bats, identification of summer habitat based on foraging areas may be a more effective conservation strategy than relying solely on roost sites.

Estimating critical habitat based on year-round movements of the endangered Jefferson Salamander (Ambystoma jeffersonianum) and their unisexual dependents

Habitat protection is a key component of endangered species conservation, but critical habitat designations are often based on limited data or habitat use during only a portion of a species’ life cycle. Protected habitat around breeding pools for the endangered Jefferson Salamander (Ambystoma jeffersonianum (Green, 1827)) and their unisexual dependents (Ambystoma laterale – (2) jeffersonianum) is based upon limited movement data from primarily spring and summer seasons. Furthermore, despite their treatment as distinct species under Canada’s Species at Risk Act, differences in habitat use have not been directly compared in areas where they co-occur. We used radiotelemetry to track A. jeffersonianum (JJ) and A. laterale – jeffersonianum (LJJ and LJJJ) during fall migrations to overwintering sites. We used these data and summarized available movement data from past studies that tracked movements in other periods of the annual cycle to estimate year-round critical habitat. Ambystoma jeffersonianum travelled significantly longer distances to overwintering locations than unisexuals. Individuals were more likely to overwinter next to a similar genomotype individual than not. Critical habitat encompassing the entire annual cycle of A. jeffersonianum extends up to 400–450 m from breeding ponds indicating existing regulatory habitat protections in Canada do not currently protect sufficient habitat.

Fluctuating water levels influence access to critical habitats for threatened Cowichan Lake lamprey

Cowichan Lake lamprey ( Entosphenus macrostomus) is a threatened species resident to Mesachie Lake, Cowichan Lake, and adjoining Bear Lake and their major tributaries in British Columbia. Decreases in trapping success have created concerns that the population is declining. Some potential threats include water use, climate change, and management actions. Owing to the absence of long-term data on population trends, little information is available to estimate habitat quality and factors that influence it. We sought to fill this gap by examining associations between habitat area and variables representing suspected key drivers of habitat availability. Critical habitat areas were imaged using an unmanned aerial vehicle over a period of three years at three sites at Cowichan Lake and a subsequent habitat area was classified. Meteorological and anthropogenic controls on habitat area were investigated through automatic relevance detection regression models. The major driver of habitat area during the critical spawning period was water level during the storage season, which also depends on the meteorological variables and anthropogenic control. It is recommended that regulation of the weir should aim to ensure that the water level remains above the 1 m mark, which roughly equates to the 67% coverage of water on the habitat area used for spawning.

The Recovery Illusion: What Is Delaying the Rescue of Imperiled Species?

With unprecedented losses in biodiversity, the need for stronger environmental policy has emerged as a conservation priority. Yet recovery planning for imperiled species remains a cumbersome, slow legislative process. In the present article, we examine features of recovery planning for species listed under Canada's Species at Risk Act to determine those influencing recovery planning duration. We found that the time to completion of recovery strategies increases with the number of jurisdictions concurrently listing the species, greater land tenure diversity, species population size, and road density. Species at risk in Canada with no listing status in the United States also suffered longer delays. To achieve a more efficient, timely, and defensible implementation of recovery planning, we recommend that governments prioritize recovery planning on the basis of risk level, promote transjurisdictional collaboration among listing agencies, anticipate and mitigate conservation challenges associated with multitenured and developed landscapes, and adopt procedures that enhance compliance with legislated timelines for recovery planning.

Development and Delivery of Species Distribution Models to Inform Decision-Making

Information on where species occur is an important component of conservation and management decisions, but knowledge of distributions is often coarse or incomplete. Species distribution models provide a tool for mapping habitat and can produce credible, defensible, and repeatable information with which to inform decisions. However, these models are sensitive to data inputs and methodological choices, making it important to assess the reliability and utility of model predictions. We provide a rubric that model developers can use to communicate a model's attributes and its appropriate uses. We emphasize the importance of tailoring model development and delivery to the species of interest and the intended use and the advantages of iterative modeling and validation. We highlight how species distribution models have been used to design surveys for new populations, inform spatial prioritization decisions for management actions, and support regulatory decision-making and compliance, tying these examples back to our model assessment rubric.

Conservation planning for species recovery under the Endangered Species Act: A case study with the Northern Spotted Owl

The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) was listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 1990. We applied modern spatial conservation theory and models to evaluate several candidate critical habitat networks, and sought an efficient conservation solution that encompassed the highest value lands for spotted owl recovery rather than maximizing the total area of potential critical habitat. We created a map of relative habitat suitability, which served as input to the spatial conservation prioritization program Zonation. We used the spatially-explicit individual-based population model HexSim to estimate and compare simulated spotted owl population outcomes among a suite of candidate critical habitat networks that varied in size and spatial arrangement under alternative scenarios of future habitat suitability and barred owl (S. varia) effects. We evaluated simulated spotted owl population outcomes, including total population size, and extinction and quasi-extinction likelihoods for 108 combinations of candidate critical habitat networks by habitat change by barred owl scenarios, both range-wide and within 11 distinct portions of the owl's range. Barred owl encounter rates and the amount and suitability of habitat had substantial effects on simulated spotted owl populations. When barred owl encounter rates were high, changes in the amount and suitability of habitat had minimal impacts on population performance. Under lowered barred owl encounter rates, candidate critical habitat networks that included most existing high suitability habitat supported a high likelihood of long-term population persistence. Barred owls are currently the primary driving force behind poor population performance of NSOs; however, our models demonstrated that a sufficient area of high suitability habitat remains essential for recovery when effects of barred owls can be reduced. The modeling approach we employed is sufficiently flexible to incorporate new information about spotted owls as it becomes available and could likely be applied to conservation planning for other species.

Fine- and coarse-scale movements and habitat use by Wood Turtles (Glyptemys insculpta) based on probabilistic modeling of radiotelemetry and GPS-telemetry data

Understanding animal movement and habitat use is critical for the delineation of habitat requiring protection for species at risk. Defining critical habitat requires studies with observations at a fine enough scale to reflect how animals use and move among habitats and include enough individuals to generalize findings to the population. We present results of a multiyear study on 48 adult Wood Turtles (Glyptemys insculpta (Le Conte, 1830)) from two different populations monitored with low-frequency radiotelemetry and high-frequency GPS telemetry. Results demonstrated the propensity for conventional radiotelemetry to underestimate cumulative distances moved and overestimate the amount of habitat used by Wood Turtles. Together the two data sets demonstrate the propensity for Wood Turtles to remain in close proximity to the river and that some differences in habitat use occur between the sexes; males tended to move parallel to the river, whereas females moved perpendicular to the river. The GPS-telemetry data provided a robust spatiotemporal data set that provided a better understanding of frequently used habitat types and features. Overall, study results suggest that currently delineated areas of protected habitat are likely to be effective in conserving these two populations and provides significantly improved, spatially explicit knowledge that can be used to inform further mitigation efforts if necessary.

Spatially explicit approach to estimation of total population abundance in field surveys

Population abundance is fundamental in ecology and conservation biology, and provides essential information for predicting population dynamics and implementing conservation actions. While a range of approaches have been proposed to estimate population abundance based on existing data, data deficiency is ubiquitous. When information is deficient, a population estimation will rely on labor intensive field surveys. Typically, time is one of the critical constraints in conservation, and management decisions must often be made quickly under a data deficient situation. Hence, it is important to acquire a theoretical justification for survey methods to meet a required estimation precision. There is no such theory available in a spatially explicit context, while spatial considerations are critical to any field survey. Here, we develop a spatially explicit theory for population estimation that allows us to examine the estimation precision under different survey designs and individual distribution patterns (e.g. random/clustered sampling and individual distribution). We demonstrate that clustered sampling decreases the estimation precision when individuals form clusters, while sampling designs do not affect the estimation accuracy when individuals are distributed randomly. Regardless of individual distribution, the estimation precision becomes higher with increasing total population abundance and the sampled fraction. These insights provide theoretical bases for efficient field survey designs in information deficiency situations.

Identifying the critical habitat of Canadian vertebrate species at risk

Identification of critical habitat is central to major conservation laws protecting endangered species in North America and around the world. Yet the actual ecological research that is required to identify which habitats are critical to the survival or recovery of species is rarely discussed and poorly documented. Here we quantitatively assess the information and methods used to identify critical habitat in the recovery strategies of 53 vertebrates at risk in Canada. Of the critical habitat identifications assessed, 17% were based on habitat occupancy information, 28% on habitat characteristics and (or) functions, and 40% assessed habitat suitability by linking functional use and biophysical characteristics. However, only 15% of the recovery strategies we evaluated examined relationships between habitat and population viability, abundance, individual fitness, or survival. Furthermore, the breadth of evidence used to assess critical habitats was weaker among long-lived taxa and did not improve over time. Hence, although any approach used to identify critical habitat is likely to be a step in the right direction in minimally protecting and maintaining habitats supporting critical life-cycle processes, there is a persistent gap between the widely recognized importance of critical habitat and our ability to quantitatively link habitats to population trends and individual fitness.

The importance of seasonal resource selection when managing a threatened species: targeting conservation actions within critical habitat designations for the Gunnison sage-grouse

Context The ability to identify priority habitat is critical for species of conservation concern. The designation of critical habitat under the US Endangered Species Act 1973 identifies areas occupied by the species that are important for conservation and may need special management or protection. However, relatively few species’ critical habitats designations incorporate habitat suitability models or seasonal specificity, even when that information exists. Gunnison sage-grouse (GUSG) have declined substantially from their historical range and were listed as threatened by the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) in November 2014. GUSG are distributed into eight isolated populations in Colorado and Utah, and one population, the Gunnison Basin (GB), has been the focus of much research. Aims To provide season-specific resource selection models to improve targeted conservation actions within the designated critical habitat in the GB. Methods We utilised radio-telemetry data from GUSG captured and monitored from 2004 to 2010. We were able to estimate resource selection models for the breeding (1 April–15 July) and summer (16 July–30 September) seasons in the GB using vegetation, topographical and anthropogenic variables. We compared the seasonal models with the existing critical habitat to investigate whether the more specific seasonal models helped identify priority habitat for GUSG. Key results The predictive surface for the breeding model indicated higher use of large areas of sagebrush, whereas the predictive surface for the summer model predicted use of more diverse habitats. The breeding and summer models (combined) matched the current critical habitat designation 68.5% of the time. We found that although the overall habitat was similar between the critical habitat designation and our combined models, the pattern and configuration of the habitat were very different. Conclusions These models highlight areas with favourable environmental variables and spatial juxtaposition to establish priority habitat within the critical habitat designated by USFWS. More seasonally specific resource selection models will assist in identifying specific areas within the critical habitat designation to concentrate habitat improvements, conservation and restoration within the GB. Implications This information can be used to provide insight into the patterns of seasonal habitat selection and can identify priority GUSG habitat to incorporate into critical habitat designation for targeted management actions.

Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes

Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along with demographic parameters in sensitivity routines. GRIP 2.0 is an important decision-support tool that can be used to prioritize research, identify habitat-based thresholds and management intervention points to improve probability of species persistence, and evaluate trade-offs of alternative management options.

Regional patterns of habitat use by a threatened forest bird, the Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), in Quebec

Conservation of threatened species often uses habitat models to inform management of habitat and populations. We examined habitat use by Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli (Ridgway, 1882)), a federally “Threatened” species, in two Appalachian regions, shaped by forestry activities, of southern Quebec. Within its breeding range, the species inhabits mountain tops and forests subjected to various logging activities. We assessed the role of vegetation and topography at two spatial scales, as well as spatial relationships with Swainson’s Thrush (Catharus ustulatus (Nuttall, 1840)), identified as a potential competitor by some authors. In both regions, Bicknell’s Thrushes were most likely to be reported at high elevations, in forest stands with high tree stem densities that underwent little or no stem reduction from forestry activities. Swainson’s Thrushes were present at all sites were Bicknell’s Thrushes were reported. These results are consistent with findings from studies in northeastern parts of its breeding range. We conclude that forest-stand thinning should be kept to a minimum throughout the high-elevation nesting habitat of Bicknell’s Thrush.

Movement, demographics, and occupancy dynamics of a federally-threatened salamander: evaluating the adequacy of critical habitat

Critical habitat for many species is often limited to occupied localities. For rare and cryptic species, or those lacking sufficient data, occupied habitats may go unrecognized, potentially hindering species recovery. Proposed critical habitat for the aquatic Jollyville Plateau salamander (Eurycea tonkawae) and two sister species were delineated based on the assumption that surface habitat is restricted to springs and excludes intervening stream reaches. To test this assumption, we performed two studies to understand aspects of individual, population, and metapopulation ecology of E. tonkawae. First, we examined movement and population demographics using capture-recapture along a spring-influenced stream reach. We then extended our investigation of stream habitat use with a study of occupancy and habitat dynamics in multiple headwater streams. Indications of extensive stream channel use based on capture-recapture results included frequent movements of >15 m, and high juvenile abundance downstream of the spring. Initial occupancy of E. tonkawae was associated with shallow depths, maidenhair fern presence and low temperature variation (indicative of groundwater influence), although many occupied sites were far from known springs. Additionally, previously dry sites were three times more likely to be colonized than wet sites. Our results indicate extensive use of stream habitats, including intermittent ones, by E. tonkawae. These areas may be important for maintaining population connectivity or even as primary habitat patches. Restricting critical habitat to occupied sites will result in a mismatch with actual habitat use, particularly when assumptions of habitat use are untested, thus limiting the potential for recovery.