Mapping opportunities and challenges for rewilding in Europe

Rewilding's social-ecological aims: Integrating coexistence into a rewilding continuum

This paper presents results from a grounded theory study of rewilding aims, addressing calls for broad scale studies of rewilding to contribute to the development of guidelines. The grounded theory draws from a broad set of data sourced from rewilding organizations, case studies, and research. Expressions from the data relating to rewilding aims and outcomes were coded. The results demonstrate the intentions for rewilding to affect systemic, ecological, and socio-cultural change. Outcomes to support rewilding aims are also identified. The aims and outcomes are presented under these headings in a social-ecological framework which offers a shared vision for rewilding. The significance of this research is that it demonstrates rewilding's multi-disciplinarity and engagement with systemic or transformative change. It addresses a perceived paradox between rewilding intervention and non-human autonomy, demonstrating that rewilding is not necessarily about removing human influence but affecting coexistence through more-than-human collaboration. A revised rewilding continuum integrating coexistence is proposed.

Where could climate-smart rewilding be located in Europe?

Climate-smart rewilding is a promising approach to ecological restoration that combines the benefits of dynamic and process-based restoration with carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation. However, little is known about suitable locations for climate-smart rewilding in Europe as there is a lack of continental scale, spatial assessments of where to rewild. We present an approach to map the potential for climate-smart rewilding in Europe by considering three dimensions: (1) Ecological potential representing the best conditions for restoring key ecological processes, (2) Carbon potential describing the potential for carbon sequestration, and (3) Land potential reflecting the societal (opportunity) costs of dedicating land to rewilding. Using these three dimensions, we map the climate-smart rewilding potential across Europe and analyse synergies and trade-offs between them. Our findings show that the potential for climate-smart rewilding is scattered across Europe with hotspots predominantly found in mountainous regions, such as the Alps and the Scottish Highlands. The Iberian Peninsula, parts of Scandinavia, the North of the UK, and the East of Europe, also show opportunities for climate-smart rewilding. The patterns highlight that high potential is not equally distributed across European countries, adding complexity to the actual implementation of measures to reach restoration targets. Furthermore, high potential areas are often characterised by a high potential for one dimension, with limited synergies between the ecological, carbon and land potential dimensions, emphasising the tension between competing land demands. The approach presented here offers valuable input for planning processes and the exploration of future scenarios.

Conservation: Meeting biodiversity targets through rewilding

Rewilding is gaining popularity as a restoration approach that promotes passive ecological succession or the active reintroduction of keystone species. A new study identifies the best areas for rewilding in Europe to meet the ambitious 2030 biodiversity protection targets.

Expanding European protected areas through rewilding

Rewilding seeks to address biodiversity loss by restoring trophic interactions and fostering self-regulating ecosystems. Although gaining traction in Europe and North America, the extent to which rewilding can meet post-2020 protected-area targets remains uncertain. We formulated criteria to map suitable areas for rewilding by identifying large tracts of land with minimal human disturbances and the presence of key mammal species. We find that one-quarter of Europe, approximately 117 million hectares (ha), is compatible with our rewilding criteria. Of these, 70% are in cooler climates. Passive rewilding opportunities, focused on managing existing wilderness, are predominant in Scandinavia, Scotland, the Iberian Peninsula, and notably in the Baltic states, Ireland, and southeastern Europe. Active rewilding opportunities, marked by reintroduction of absent trophic guilds, are identified in Corsica, Sardinia, southern France, and parts of the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway. Our mapping supports European nations in leveraging land abandonment to expand areas for nature conservation, aligning with the European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. Nevertheless, countries with limited potential for rewilding should consider alternative conservation strategies.

Economics of rewilding

Rewilding, a concept often defined as an open-ended approach to ecological restoration that aims to establish self-sustaining ecosystems, has gained much interest in recent conservation science and practice. The economic dimensions of rewilding remain understudied, despite repeated calls for research, and we find that synthetic or programmatic contributions to the scientific literature are still missing. Here, we mined Scopus and Web of Science databases through a systematic review, looking for "rewilding" with various economic terms in the peer-reviewed literature, in the English language. We then screened out a 257 references-rich corpus with 14 variables, including the position of rewilding regarding positive and negative economic effects in specific sectors, and geographical or ecological foci. Our corpus amounts to ca. 40% of recent rewilding literature, with a clear emphasis on European study sites and the economic consequences of rewilding initiatives. Rewilding studies often refer to positive economic impacts on tourism and hunting, e.g., through higher income and employment rates, although very few studies properly quantify these. Conversely, most authors find rewilding harms farming, which is threatened by abandonment and damages by wildlife, raising interest in potential EU subsidy regimes. We highlight the surprising paucity of rewilding literature truly focusing on economics and/or providing detailed quantification-with remarkable exceptions. While rewilding's ecological relevance is no longer in question, demonstrating its economic benefits and sustainability will undoubtedly help scaling up. Thus, we advise rewilders to systematically measure and report investments and outcomes of rewilding initiatives, and to adopt common standards for cost and benefit assessments.

An assessment of future rewilding potential in the United Kingdom

Restoring ecosystems is an imperative for addressing biodiversity loss and climate change, and achieving the targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. One form of restoration, rewilding, may have particular promise but may also be precluded by requirements for other forms of land use now or in the future. This opportunity space is critical but challenging to assess. We explored the potential area available for rewilding in Great Britain until the year 2080 with a multisectoral land-use model with several distinct climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. By 2080, areas from 5000 to 7000 km2 were either unmanaged or managed in ways that could be consistent with rewilding across scenarios without conflicting with the provision of ecosystem services. Beyond these areas, another 24,000-42,000 km2 of extensive upland management could provide additional areas for rewilding if current patterns of implementation hold in the future. None of these areas, however, coincided reliably with ecosystems of priority for conservation: peatlands, ancient woodlands, or wetlands. Repeatedly, these ecosystems were found to be vulnerable to conversion. Our results are not based on an assumption of support for or benefits from rewilding and do not account for disadvantages, such as potential losses of cultural landscapes or traditional forms of management, that were beyond the modeled ecosystem services. Nevertheless, potential areas for rewilding emerge in a variety of ways, from intensification elsewhere having a substantial but inadvertent land-sparing effect, popular demand for environmental restoration, or a desire for exclusive recreation among the wealthy elite. Our findings therefore imply substantial opportunities for rewilding in the United Kingdom but also a need for interventions to shape the nature and extent of that rewilding to maintain priority conservation areas and societal objectives.

Ecological restoration and rewilding: two approaches with complementary goals?

As we enter the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021-2030) and address the urgent need to protect and restore ecosystems and their ecological functions at large scales, rewilding has been brought into the limelight. Interest in this discipline is thus increasing, with a large number of conceptual scientific papers published in recent years. Increasing enthusiasm has led to discussions and debates in the scientific community about the differences between ecological restoration and rewilding. The main goal of this review is to compare and clarify the position of each field. Our results show that despite some differences (e.g. top-down versus bottom-up and functional versus taxonomic approaches) and notably with distinct goals - recovery of a defined historically determined target ecosystem versus recovery of natural processes with often no target endpoint - ecological restoration and rewilding have a common scope: the recovery of ecosystems following anthropogenic degradation. The goals of ecological restoration and rewilding have expanded with the progress of each field. However, it is unclear whether there is a paradigm shift with ecological restoration moving towards rewilding or vice versa. We underline the complementarity in time and in space of ecological restoration and rewilding. To conclude, we argue that reconciliation of these two fields of nature conservation to ensure complementarity could create a synergy to achieve their common scope.

A review of global wilderness area identification since the 21st century

Wilderness areas are natural landscape elements that are relatively undisrupted by human activity and play a critical role in maintaining ecological equilibrium, preserving naturalness, and ensuring ecosystem resilience. Since 2000, monitoring of global wilderness areas has increased owing to the availability of spatial map data and remote sensing imagery related to human activity and/or human footprint. Progress has been made in the remote sensing of wilderness areas by relying on available historical literature (e.g., published papers, books, and reports). However, to our knowledge, a synthesis of wilderness area research from a remote sensing perspective has not yet been performed. In this preliminary review, we discuss the concept of wilderness in different historical eras and systematically summarize dynamic wilderness monitoring at local, national, and global scales, available remotely sensed indicators, disparities and commonalities in identification methods, and mapping uncertainties. Finally, since this field remains in its initial stage owing to a lack of unified standards and vertical/horizontal comparisons, we present insights into future research directions, particularly with regard to remote sensing. The findings of this review may help to improve the overall understanding of current wilderness patterns (i.e., increases/decreases) and the mechanisms by which they change, as well as provide guidance for global nature conservation programs.

Effects of human depopulation and warming climate on bird populations in Japan

Quantifying biodiversity trends in economically developed countries, where depopulation, associated secondary succession, and climate warming are ongoing, provides insights for global biodiversity conservation in the 21st century. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of secondary succession and climate warming on species' population trends at a national scale. We estimated the population trends of common breeding bird species in Japan and examined the associations between the overall population trend and species traits with the nationwide bird count data on 47 species collected from 2009 to 2020. The overall population trend varied among species. Four species populations increased moderately, 18 were stable, and 11 declined moderately. Population trends for 13 species were uncertain. The difference in overall trends among the species was associated with their habitat group and temperature niche. Species with relatively low-temperature niches experienced more pronounced declines. Multispecies indicators showed a moderate increase in forest specialists and moderate declines in forest generalists (species that use both forests and open habitats) and open-habitat specialists. Forest generalists and open-habitat specialists also declined more rapidly at sites with more abandoned farmland. All species groups showed an accelerated decline or decelerated increase after 2015. These results suggest that common breeding birds in Japan are facing deteriorating trends as a result of nationwide changes in land use and climate. Future land-use planning and policies should consider the benefits of passive rewilding for forest specialists and active restoration measures (e.g., low-intensive forestry and agriculture) for nonforest specialists to effectively conserve biodiversity in the era of human depopulation and climate warming.

Anthropogenic predictors of varying Holocene occurrence for Europe's large mammal fauna

Understanding how species respond to different anthropogenic pressures is essential for conservation planning. The archaeological record has great potential to inform extinction risk assessment by providing evidence on past human-caused biodiversity loss, but identifying specific drivers of past declines from environmental archives has proved challenging. We used 17 684 Holocene zooarchaeological records for 15 European large mammal species together with data on past environmental conditions and anthropogenic activities across Europe, to assess the ability of environmental archives to determine the relative importance of different human pressures in shaping faunal distributions through time. Site occupancy probability showed differing significant relationships with environmental covariates for all species, and nine species also showed significant relationships with anthropogenic covariates (human population density, % cropland, % grazing land). Across-species differences in negative relationships with covariates provide ecological insights for understanding extinction dynamics: some mammals (red deer, aurochs, wolf, wildcat, lynx, pine marten and beech marten) were more vulnerable to past human-environmental interactions, and differing single and synergistic anthropogenic factors influenced likelihood of past occurrence across species. Our results provide new evidence for pre-industrial population fragmentation and depletion in European mammals, and demonstrate the usefulness of historical baselines for understanding species' varying long-term sensitivity to multiple threats.

The Effectiveness of Virtual Fencing of Bull Calves in a Holistic Grazing System

Large grazers are essential for nature conservation. In order to prevent grazers from moving to unintended areas, it may be necessary to keep them inside enclosures. Physical fences present a number of problems, such as fragmenting the landscape. Virtual fencing, however, is a possible replacement for physical fencing, making it possible to enclose grazers without physical boundaries. Virtual fencing systems utilise collars with GPS technology to track animals and deliver auditory warnings and electric impulses to keep animals within predefined boundaries. This study examines how effective the virtual fencing system Nofence© is at enclosing calves in a holistically managed setting. Holistic management is a rotational grazing technique where an enclosure is grazed in small strips at a time. It is investigated whether the calves become habituated to the virtual fence and whether there is a correlation between the number of warnings received by every two calves in order to explore potential herd behaviour. Finally, this study examines which calves interact the most with the virtual fence by investigating the relationship between physical activity and number of interactions. Seventeen calves were fitted with a GPS collar from the company Nofence© and placed in a holistically managed enclosure. Data were gathered from 4 July to 30 September 2022. The study found that virtual fence was able to contain calves inside the designated enclosure, and over time the calves received notably fewer electrical impulses compared to auditory warnings. The results of Pearson's correlation between auditory warnings received by two random calves were inconclusive, but the use of a sliding window analysis should be further explored. Lastly, the most physically active animals were the ones who received the most auditory warnings, but they did not receive more impulses. No significant correlation was found between the number of electric impulses received and the physical activity of the animals.

Welcoming Wolves? Governing the Return of Large Carnivores in Traditional Pastoral Landscapes

Wolf populations are recovering across Europe and readily recolonize most areas where humans allow their presence. Reintegrating wolves in human-dominated landscapes is a major challenge, particularly in places where memories and experience of coexistence have been lost. Despite the observed expansion trends, little has been done to prepare communities for the return of these apex predators, or to understand what fosters and perpetuates coexistence. In this study, we present a theoretical framework for resilient coexistence based on four conditions: Effective institutions, large carnivore persistence, social legitimacy, and low levels of risk and vulnerability, nested within the social-ecological systems (SES) concept. To empirically show how the conditions can be manifested and interconnected, and how this knowledge could be used to improve local coexistence capacities, the framework is applied in a case study of human–wolf relations in Spain. We examined three traditionally pastoral landscapes at different states of cohabitation with wolves: uninterrupted presence, recent recolonization, and imminent return. We found that both the perceptions of wolves and the capacity to coexist with them diverged across these states, and that this was largely determined by a diversity of vulnerabilities that have not been recognized or addressed within current management regimes, such as economic precarity and weak legitimacy for governing institutions. Our results illustrate the importance of working in close contact with communities to understand local needs and enhance adaptive capacities in the face of rural transitions, beyond those directly related to wolves. The framework complements emerging tools for coexistence developed by researchers and practitioners, which offer guidance on the process of situational analysis, planning, and resource allocation needed to balance large carnivore conservation with local livelihoods.

Identifying Potential Cropland Losses When Conserving 30% and 50% Earth with Different Approaches and Spatial Scales

Biodiversity conservation is the cornerstone for sustainable development. Bold conservation targets provide the last opportunities to halt the human-driven mass extinction. Recently, bold conservation targets have been proposed to protect 30% or 50% of Earth. However, little is known about its potential impacts on cropland. We identify potential cropland losses when 30% and 50% of global terrestrial area is given back to nature by 2030/2050, at three spatial scales (global, biome and country) and using two approaches (“nature-only landscapes” and “shared landscapes”). We find that different targets, applied scales and approaches will lead to different cropland losses: (1) At the global scale, it is possible to protect 50% of the Earth while having minimum cropland losses. (2) At biome scale, 0.64% and 8.54% cropland will be lost globally in 2030 and 2050 under the nature-only approach while by contrast, the shared approach substantially reduces the number of countries confronted by cropland losses, demanding only 0% and 2.59% of global cropland losses in 2030 and 2050. (3) At the national scale, the nature-only approach causes losses of 3.58% and 10.73% of global cropland in 2030 and 2050, while the shared approach requires 0.77% and 7.55% cropland in 2030 and 2050. Our results indicate that bold conservation targets could be considered, especially when adopting the shared approach, and we suggest adopting ambitious targets (protecting at least 30% by 2030) at the UN Biodiversity Conference (COP 15) to ensure a sustainable future for Earth.

Future scenarios impact on land use change and habitat quality in Lithuania

Anticipating future land use and land cover (LULC) changes can improve our knowledge of the complexity of human-environment interactions that lead to transformations in the landscape. Therefore, it is key to understand these LULC changes under different scenarios and how they affect habitat quality (HQ) a key indicator for ecosystem services (ES) supply quality. This work aims to study the impacts of LULC changes under different scenarios: business as usual (A0), urbanisation (A1), land abandonment and afforestation (A2) and agriculture intensification (A3) in 2050. To simulate future LULC changes we applied the Cellular Automata (CA) method, and to assess HQ, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was used. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed with a Moran's I index and the Getis Ord* hotspot analysis. The result showed that the LULC model calibration and validation were accurate (80%). Between 1990 and 2018 there was an increase in urban areas and forest and woodlands, which was reflected in the A0 scenario in 2050. Under the A1 scenario there was an increase in the urban area (4628 ha) compared to 2018, and in the most important cities (e.g., Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda) in the scenario A2 there was an increase of 375,820 ha of woodland and forest. Finally, under the scenario A3, a large growth in cropland area (884,030 ha) was identified. HQ model had a better validation using three cover density data (r² = 0.67), than with imperviousness (r² = 0.26). A2 scenario showed the highest HQ and A3 scenario have the lowest HQ. The land uses of 1990, 2018, and A3 scenario had a clustered distribution while A0, A1 and A2 showed a random pattern. The results can support policy-makers by assessing the impact of future LULC changes in Lithuania.

Economic assessment of rewilding versus agri-environmental nature management

Policies aiming at improving biodiversity often consist of costly agri-environmental schemes, i.e. subsidized grazing or mowing of semi-natural areas. However, these practices have widely been found to be insufficient to mitigate biodiversity loss. Rewilding, i.e. restoring natural processes in self-sustaining biodiverse ecosystems, has been proposed as an alternative and is hypothesized to be a more cost-efficient approach to promote biodiversity conservation. Rewilding requires the availability of large natural areas which are not allocated for farming, forestry, and infrastructure to avoid potential conflicts over the use of the area. We perform an ex-ante private cost-benefit analysis of the establishment of four large nature reserves for rewilding in Denmark. We analyse the economic effects of changing from summer grazing in nature areas in combination with cultivated fields and forestry to the establishment of nature reserves in four case areas. We consider two scenarios involving conversion of agriculture and forestry areas into natural areas in combination with either extensive year-round cattle grazing or rewilding with wild large herbivores. In two case areas, it appears possible to establish large nature areas without incurring extra costs. Additionally, rewilding further reduces costs compared to year-round cattle grazing. Two opposing effects were dominant: increased economic rent occurred from the shift from summer grazing to year-round grazing or rewilding, while cessation of agriculture and forestry caused opportunity costs.

Farmland abandonment and its determinants in the different ecological villages of the Koshi river basin, central Himalayas: Synergy of high-resolution remote sensing and social surveys

Globally, there is a noticeable increasing trend in farmland abandonment, which directly affects farmers' livelihood and food security. The abandonment status, its determinants and impact vary by spatial and socioeconomic context. In order to study this important issue, we selected three different villages representing three ecological regions (Mountain, Hill, and Tarai) in the Koshi River Basin (KRB), and applied two methods: the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and a social survey. The UAV captured 3711 images and we carried out 162 households' survey with structured questionnaires. Pix4Dmapper and ArcGIS tools were used for combining and processing the images. On-screen digitalization and binary logistic regression (BLR) were applied to examine the status and determinants of farmland abandonment. The results show a higher proportion of farmland abandonment in the villages located in the Hill and Mountain regions compared to those in the Tarai region. Almost 10.3% area of total land and 22.3% area of total farmland was abandoned in the Hill village. The Tarai village had the least farm abandonment (3.7%). Farmers perceived that climate change (less precipitation, increasing temperatures, and drought), shifting occupations, crops damaged by wildlife, migration, lack of irrigation, and a labor shortage are the leading determinants of farmland abandonment. These factors varied slightly across the different ecological regions. The BLR model was a good fit with Nagelkerke's R² = 0.776, with a correct model prediction (87.7%) and p = 0.032. The results from the regression model suggest that an increase in temperature (p = 0.000), decrease in rainfall (p = 0.001), lack of machinery used for farm-work (p = 0.000), lack of irrigation (p = 0.000), and reduction of labor-force (p = 0.000) are the main contributing determinants of farmland abandonment. This synergy of high-resolution remote sensing and farmers' perception-based findings facilitates the improvement of land-use governmental policies to improve farmers' quality of life and build sustainable farmland management.

A strategy for wildlife management in depopulating rural areas of Japan

Former ranges of wild animals have been reestablished in many developed countries. However, this reestablishment has led to increasing human-wildlife conflict in agroforest ecosystems. In Japan, human-wildlife conflict, such as crop raiding by and ecological impacts of wild ungulates and primates, is a serious problem in depopulated rural areas due to these animal range expansions and increased abundances. Japan's human population is predicted to decline by 24% by 2050, and approximately 20% of agricultural settlements will become completely depopulated. In this scenario, anthropogenic pressures on wildlife (e.g., hunting and habitat alteration) will continue to decrease and human-wildlife conflict will increase due to increasing wildlife recovery. Japan's local governments plan to slow range recovery, prevent species reestablishment, or remove recolonizing large mammals through lethal control. This strategy, however, is not cost-effective, and workforce shortages in depopulated communities make it infeasible. Moreover, the suppression of wildlife prevents the recovery of ecological functions and thus would degrade regional biodiversity. The declining pressure on wildlife that accompanies human depopulation will prevent the restoration of any past states of human-wildlife interaction. We suggest human-used areas in rural landscapes be aggregated in compact cities and that in transition zones between human settlements and depopulated lands that land-sharing approaches be applied. Concentrating management efforts in compact cities may effectively decrease human-wildlife conflict, rather than intensifying human pressures. Reforestation of depopulated lands may lead to recovery of wildlife habitats, their ecosystem functions, and regional biodiversity due to minimization of negative anthropogenic effects (land-sparing approach). Balancing resolution of human-wildlife conflict and ecological rewilding could become a new, challenging task for regional wildlife managers.

Effects of active and passive land use management after cropland abandonment on water and vegetation dynamics in the Central Spanish Pyrenees

The Mediterranean mountains have been subject to significant land abandonment process during the second half of the 20th century. The subsequent natural revegetation following abandonment in rural areas has been widely documented to have substantial implications on the hydrological cycle and the vegetation. The Spanish Pyrenees are one of the most affected areas by these land transformations which could threaten their importance for water supply and agricultural activities in the downstream lowland areas. Land managers as well as scientists around the world have taken different positions on how to deal with these land use changes. Some are in favor of active management (AM) (i.e. density reduction) while others are supporting passive management (PM) (letting the process of revegetation continue). This study aims to investigate the implication of AM and PM on hydrological and vegetation dynamics under different climate trajectories in a representative abandoned cropland catchment in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. A coupled ecohydrologic model is used to estimate the post management response of streamflow (STR), evapotranspiration (ET), soil saturation deficit (SD) and plant carbon (PC) following shrub clearing. Clearing increased annual STR by 16%, while ET and SD decreased by around -9% and -6% respectively during the first year after management with changes to monthly flows. These changes to water regimes may be even higher in wetter years. Over a 10-years period of vegetation recovery annual STR increased between 7.1% and 24.2%, while annual ET and SD decreased between -2.6% to -8.7% and -2.7% to -6% respectively due to shrub clearing, with the highest changes occurring in the first three years of AM. On the effect of climate change, our results show that a 2 °C increase in temperature could reduce AM effects on water regimes and accelerate the recovery of PC given averaged rainfall conditions.

Rewilding processes shape the use of Mediterranean landscapes by an avian top scavenger

The Mediterranean biome has seen a great decline in its rural population. This trend has been followed by an abandonment of agricultural and livestock practices, which has provided an opportunity for rewilding to take place. Rewilding processes can modify the availability of carrion resources for avian obligate scavengers and reduce accessible open areas due to the increase of shrub and forest. We examined how changes in landscape configuration in the past five decades (1956–2011) mediate the foraging behaviour of griffon vultures. Particularly, we examined whether vultures use those areas under natural succession and with a high availability of wild ungulate carcasses. We used GPS information yielded by 30 adult griffon vultures exploiting large regions of southern Spain. We determined (a) habitat use considering land uses and food availability and (b) how tracked individuals responded to areas in different stages of rewilding. Our results showed that vultures preferentially used Mediterranean scrublands, woodlands and the agroforest Mediterranean ecosystem called dehesa, as well as areas with high food resources, namely wild ungulates in winter and a mixture of wild ungulates and livestock in summer. Due to a higher abundance of wild ungulates, vultures forage preferentially in areas with low levels of rewilding, either for being in the first stages of natural succession or for not having experienced further rewilding since the middle of the last century. Rewilding processes are expected to continue in the future affecting the scavenger guild structure and function deeply. Improved management will be essential to preserve ecological processes, ecosystem services and populations of endangered species.

Anthropocene refugia: integrating history and predictive modelling to assess the space available for biodiversity in a human-dominated world

During periods of strong environmental change, some areas may serve as refugia, where components of biodiversity can find protection, persist and potentially expand from should conditions again become favourable. The refugia concept has previously been used in the context of climatic change, to describe climatically stable areas in which taxa survived past Quaternary glacial-interglacial oscillations, or where they might persist in the future under anthropogenic climate change. However, with the recognition that Earth has entered the Anthropocene, an era in which human activities are the dominant driving force on ecosystems, it is critical to also consider human pressures on the environment as factors limiting species distributions. Here, we present a novel concept, Anthropocene refugia, to refer to areas that provide spatial and temporal protection from human activities and that will remain suitable for a given taxonomic unit in the long-term. It integrates a deep-time perspective on species biogeography that provides information on the natural rather than current-day relictual distribution of species, with spatial information on modern and future anthropogenic threats. We define the concept and propose a methodology to effectively identify and map realized and potential current and future refugia, using examples for two megafaunal species as a proof of concept. We argue that identifying Anthropocene refugia will improve biodiversity conservation and restoration by allowing better prediction of key areas for conservation and potential for re-expansions today and in the future. More generally, it forms a new conceptual framework to assess and manage the impact of anthropogenic activities on past, current and future patterns of species distributions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Behavioral response of naïve and non-naïve deer to wolf urine

Large carnivores are recolonizing many regions in Europe, where their ungulate prey have lived without them for >150 years. Whether the returning large carnivores will modify ungulate behavior and indirectly affect lower trophic levels, depends on the ability of ungulates to recognize risk based on past encounters and cues indicating carnivore presence. In two case studies, we tested, by means of camera trapping, the behavioral response of deer to wolf urine. The first case study was in the Netherlands where deer (still) live in absence of wolves, and the second in Poland with long-term wolf presence. As controls we used water (no scent) and all-purpose soap (unfamiliar scent). Deer vigilance level on control plots was 20% in both case studies indicating that wolf occupancy per se does not lead to a consistent difference in behavior. Placing wolf urine did not significantly affect deer behavior in either the wolf-absent or the wolf-present area. More intense cues, or a combination of cues, are likely needed to affect deer behavior. Moreover, we found an unexpected reaction of deer towards all-purpose soap of reduced foraging (and tendency for increased vigilance) in the wolf-present area, whereas it did not affect deer behavior in the wolf-absent area. We hypothesize that deer associate all-purpose soap with human presence, causing no response in human-dominated landscapes (the Netherlands), but triggering a behavioral reaction in more remote areas (Poland). This illustrates attention should be paid to controls used in scent experiments as they may be associated differently than intended.

Reconciling Conflicting Paradigms of Biodiversity Conservation: Human Intervention and Rewilding

There are strong opposing views among conservationists about whether we have to intervene to safeguard our natural heritage or not. In the Western European tradition, human intervention has been dominating, whereas, elsewhere, rewilding aimed at restoring self-regulating ecosystems has often been preferred. However, cultural rather than ecological differences are at the root of these opposing paradigms, leading to management strategies that are not always optimal for biodiversity conservation. In the present article, we propose a framework based on the relationship between ecosystem dynamics and the human footprint, including land-use legacies, to guide the mixture of rewilding and intervention practices in order to ensure a biodiverse future. We argue that these paradigms are not conflicting but complementary and advocate for rewilding where possible, human intervention where needed.

Bioeconomy Transitions through the Lens of Coupled Social-Ecological Systems: A Framework for Place-Based Responsibility in the Global Resource System

Bioeconomy strategies in high income societies focus at replacing finite, fossil resources by renewable, biological resources to reconcile macro-economic concerns with climate constraints. However, the current bioeconomy is associated with critical levels of environmental degradation. As a potential increase in biological resource use may further threaten the capacity of ecosystems to fulfil human needs, it remains unclear whether bioeconomy transitions in high income countries are sustainable. In order to fill a gap in bioeconomy sustainability assessments, we apply an ontological lens of coupled social-ecological systems to explore critical mechanisms in relation to bioeconomy activities in the global resource system. This contributes to a social-ecological systems (SES)-based understanding of sustainability from a high income country perspective: the capacity of humans to satisfy their needs with strategies that reduce current levels of pressures and impacts on ecosystems. Building on this notion of agency, we develop a framework prototype that captures the systemic relation between individual human needs and collective social outcomes on the one hand (micro-level) and social-ecological impacts in the global resource system on the other hand (macro-level). The BIO-SES framework emphasizes the role of responsible consumption (for physical health), responsible production (to reduce stressors on the environment), and the role of autonomy and self-organisation (to protect the reproduction capacity of social-ecological systems). In particular, the BIO-SES framework can support (1) individual and collective agency in high income country contexts to reduce global resource use and related ecosystem impacts with a bioeconomy strategy, (2) aligning social outcomes, monitoring efforts and governance structures with place-based efforts to achieve the SDGs, as well as (3), advancing the evidence base and social-ecological theory on responsible bioeconomy transitions in the limited biosphere.

An Australian perspective on rewilding

Rewilding is increasingly recognized as a conservation tool but is often context specific, which inhibits broad application. Rewilding in Australia seeks to enhance ecosystem function and promote self-sustaining ecosystems. An absence of large-bodied native herbivores means trophic rewilding in mainland Australia has focused on the restoration of functions provided by apex predators and small mammals. Because of the pervasive influence of introduced mesopredators, predator-proof fences, and establishment of populations on predator-free islands are common rewilding approaches. This sets Australian rewilding apart from most jurisdictions and provides globally relevant insights but presents challenges to restoring function to broader landscapes. Passive rewilding is of limited utility in arid zones. Although increasing habitat extent and quality in mesic coastal areas may work, it will likely be necessary to undertake active management. Because much of Australia's population is in urban areas, rewilding efforts must include urban areas to maximize effectiveness. Thus rewilding is not synonymous with wilderness and can occur over multiple scales. Rewilding efforts must recognize human effects on other species and benefit both nature and humans. Rewilding in Australia requires development of a shared vision and strategy and proof-of-concept projects to demonstrate the benefits. The repackaging of existing conservation activities as rewilding may confuse and undermine the success of rewilding programs and should be avoided. As elsewhere, rewilding in Australia should be viewed as an important conservation tool.

Hotspots of human impact on threatened terrestrial vertebrates

Conserving threatened species requires identifying where across their range they are being impacted by threats, yet this remains unresolved across most of Earth. Here, we present a global analysis of cumulative human impacts on threatened species by using a spatial framework that jointly considers the co-occurrence of eight threatening processes and the distribution of 5,457 terrestrial vertebrates. We show that impacts to species are widespread, occurring across 84% of Earth's surface, and identify hotspots of impacted species richness and coolspots of unimpacted species richness. Almost one-quarter of assessed species are impacted across >90% of their distribution, and approximately 7% are impacted across their entire range. These results foreshadow localised extirpations and potential extinctions without conservation action. The spatial framework developed here offers a tool for defining strategies to directly mitigate the threats driving species' declines, providing essential information for future national and global conservation agendas.

Spatial variation in determinants of agricultural land abandonment in Europe

Agricultural abandonment is widespread and growing in many regions worldwide, often because of agricultural intensification on productive lands, conservation policies, or the spatial decoupling of agricultural production from consumption. Abandonment has major environmental and social impacts, which differ starkly depending on the geographical context, as does its potential to serve as a land reservoir for recultivation. Understanding determinants of abandonment patterns, and especially how their influence varies across broad geographic extents, is therefore important. Using a pan-European map of agricultural abandonment derived from MODIS NDVI time series between 2001 and 2012, we quantified the importance of farm management, climatic, environmental, and socio-economic variables in explaining abandonment patterns. We chose a machine learning modelling framework that accounts for spatial variation in the relationship between abandonment and its determinants. We predicted abandonment probability as well as determinant coefficients for the entire study area and summarised them for regions under selected EU support schemes. Our results highlight that agricultural abandonment was mainly explained by climate conditions suboptimal for agriculture (i.e., low/high growing degrees days). Determinants related to farm management (smaller field size, lower yields) and socio-economic conditions (high unemployment, negative migration balance) also contributed to describing agricultural abandonment patterns in Europe. Several determinants influenced abandonment in strongly non-linear ways and we found substantial spatial non-stationarity effects, although abandonment patterns were equally well-explained by predictors specified with spatially constant and varying effects. Predicted abandonment probability was similar inside and outside EU support or conservation zones, whereas observed MODIS-based abandonment was generally higher outside these zones, suggesting that schemes such as Natura 2000 or High Nature Value Farmland likely influence abandonment patterns. Our work highlights the potential value of spatial boosting for gaining insights into land-use change processes and their outcomes, which should increase the ability of such models to inform context-specific, regionalised decision making.

Landslides and Cropland Abandonment in China’s Mountainous Areas: Spatial Distribution, Empirical Analysis and Policy Implications

Cropland, as the largest land use type in the human landscape, contributes to not only biodiversity but also global food security. However, cropland abandonment not only is harmful to agricultural cultural landscapes but also threatens food security. Prior studies have suggested that changes in the social environment drive farmers to abandon cropland. In contrast, this study reveals that factors of the natural environment (e.g., landslides) have steadily and significantly affected cropland abandonment after controlling the factors of the social environment. More specifically, based on the survey data of a large sample of 4850 mountainous households in 24 provinces of China and following the theoretical framework of “environment → land use”, this study quantitatively identified the impacts of landslides on cropland abandonment in mountainous areas using the Probit and Tobit models. The results show that: (1) There is a similar spatial agglomeration trend between landslides and cropland abandonment. Namely, an area that has a high incidence of landslides also has a high incidence of cropland abandonment. (2) There is a significant and positive correlation between landslides and cropland abandonment. Namely, compared with peasants who have not suffered from landslides, the probability that peasants suffering from landslides will abandon cropland and the area abandoned increase by 6.8% and 0.064 mu, respectively. (3) Elderly farmers (over 64 years old) and the development of urbanization help curb cropland abandonment in the mountains. The results of this study may provide reference for the government to implement effective policies for managing landslides and revitalizing unused cropland resources.

Temporally inter-comparable maps of terrestrial wilderness and the Last of the Wild

Wilderness areas, defined as areas free of industrial scale activities and other human pressures which result in significant biophysical disturbance, are important for biodiversity conservation and sustaining the key ecological processes underpinning planetary life-support systems. Despite their importance, wilderness areas are being rapidly eroded in extent and fragmented. Here we present the most up-to-date temporally inter-comparable maps of global terrestrial wilderness areas, which are essential for monitoring changes in their extent, and for proactively planning conservation interventions to ensure their preservation. Using maps of human pressure on the natural environment for 1993 and 2009, we identified wilderness as all 'pressure free' lands with a contiguous area >10,000 km2. These places are likely operating in a natural state and represent the most intact habitats globally. We then created a regionally representative map of wilderness following the well-established 'Last of the Wild' methodology; which identifies the 10% area with the lowest human pressure within each of Earth's 60 biogeographic realms, and identifies the ten largest contiguous areas, along with all contiguous areas >10,000 km2.

Recent tree cover increases in eastern China linked to low, declining human pressure, steep topography, and climatic conditions favoring tree growth

Globally, the extent of forest continues to decline, however, some countries have increased their forest extent in recent years. China is one of these countries and has managed to increase their tree cover through huge reforestation and afforestation programs during recent decades as well as land abandonment dynamics. This study investigates tree cover change in the eastern half of China between 2000 and 2010 on three different scales, using random forest modeling of remote sensing data for tree cover in relation to environmental and anthropogenic predictor variables. Our results show that between the years 2000 and 2010 2,667,875 km² experienced an increase in tree cover while 1,854,900 km² experienced a decline in tree cover. The area experiencing ≥10% increase in tree cover is almost twice as large as the area with ≥10% drop in tree cover. There is a clear relation between topography and tree cover change with steeper and mid-elevation areas having a larger response on tree cover increase than other areas. Furthermore, human influence, change in population density, and actual evapotranspiration are also important factors in explaining where tree cover has changed. This study adds to the understanding of tree cover change in China, as it has focus on the entire eastern half of China on three different scales and how tree cover change is linked to topography and anthropogenic pressure. Though, our results show an increase in tree cover in China, this study emphasizes the importance of incorporating anthropogenic factors together with biodiversity protection into the reforestation and afforestation programs in the future.

A Composite Network Approach for Assessing Multi-Species Connectivity: An Application to Road Defragmentation Prioritisation

One of the biggest challenges in large-scale conservation is quantifying connectivity at broad geographic scales and for a large set of species. Because connectivity analyses can be computationally intensive, and the planning process quite complex when multiple taxa are involved, assessing connectivity at large spatial extents for many species turns to be often intractable. Such limitation results in that conducted assessments are often partial by focusing on a few key species only, or are generic by considering a range of dispersal distances and a fixed set of areas to connect that are not directly linked to the actual spatial distribution or mobility of particular species. By using a graph theory framework, here we propose an approach to reduce computational effort and effectively consider large assemblages of species in obtaining multi-species connectivity priorities. We demonstrate the potential of the approach by identifying defragmentation priorities in the Italian road network focusing on medium and large terrestrial mammals. We show that by combining probabilistic species graphs prior to conducting the network analysis (i) it is possible to analyse connectivity once for all species simultaneously, obtaining conservation or restoration priorities that apply for the entire species assemblage; and that (ii) those priorities are well aligned with the ones that would be obtained by aggregating the results of separate connectivity analysis for each of the individual species. This approach offers great opportunities to extend connectivity assessments to large assemblages of species and broad geographic scales.