Environmental variation and population responses to global change

Biodiversity in changing environments: An external-driver internal-topology framework to guide intervention

Accompanying the climate crisis is the more enigmatic biodiversity crisis. Rapid reorganization of biodiversity due to global environmental change has defied prediction and tested the basic tenets of conservation and restoration. Conceptual and practical innovation is needed to support decision making in the face of these unprecedented shifts. Critical questions include: How can we generalize biodiversity change at the community level? When are systems able to reorganize and maintain integrity, and when does abiotic change result in collapse or restructuring? How does this understanding provide a template to guide when and how to intervene in conservation and restoration? To this end, we frame changes in community organization as the modulation of external abiotic drivers on the internal topology of species interactions, using plant-plant interactions in terrestrial communities as a starting point. We then explore how this framing can help translate available data on species abundance and trait distributions to corresponding decisions in management. Given the expectation that community response and reorganization are highly complex, the external-driver internal-topology (EDIT) framework offers a way to capture general patterns of biodiversity that can help guide resilience and adaptation in changing environments.

Heat and desiccation tolerances predict bee abundance under climate change

Climate change could pose an urgent threat to pollinators, with critical ecological and economic consequences. However, for most insect pollinator species, we lack the long-term data and mechanistic evidence that are necessary to identify climate-driven declines and predict future trends. Here we document 16 years of abundance patterns for a hyper-diverse bee assemblage1 in a warming and drying region2, link bee declines with experimentally determined heat and desiccation tolerances, and use climate sensitivity models to project bee communities into the future. Aridity strongly predicted bee abundance for 71% of 665 bee populations (species × ecosystem combinations). Bee taxa that best tolerated heat and desiccation increased the most over time. Models forecasted declines for 46% of species and predicted more homogeneous communities dominated by drought-tolerant taxa, even while total bee abundance may remain unchanged. Such community reordering could reduce pollination services, because diverse bee assemblages typically maximize pollination for plant communities3. Larger-bodied bees also dominated under intermediate to high aridity, identifying body size as a valuable trait for understanding how climate-driven shifts in bee communities influence pollination4. We provide evidence that climate change directly threatens bee diversity, indicating that bee conservation efforts should account for the stress of aridity on bee physiology.

Warm spells in winter affect the equilibrium between winter phenotypes

Each phenotype is a product of the interaction of the genes and the environment. Although winter phenotype in seasonal mammals is heritable, its development may be modified by external conditions. In today's world, global climate change and increasing frequency of unpredictable weather events may affect the dynamic equilibrium between phenotypes. We tested the effect of changes in ambient temperature during acclimation to short photoperiod on the development of winter phenotypes in three generations of Siberian hamsters (Phodopus sungorus). Based on seasonal changes in fur colour, body mass, and expression of daily torpor we distinguished three different winter phenotypes: responding, non-responding, and partially-responding to short photoperiod. We found that warm spells in winter can increase the proportion of non-responding individuals in the population, while stable winter conditions can increase photoresponsiveness among the offspring of non-responders. We conclude that the polymorphism of winter phenotype is an inherent characteristic of the Siberian hamster population but the development of winter phenotype is not fixed but rather a plastic response to the environmental conditions.

Eco-evolution from deep time to contemporary dynamics: The role of timescales and rate modulators

Eco-evolutionary dynamics, or eco-evolution for short, are often thought to involve rapid demography (ecology) and equally rapid heritable phenotypic changes (evolution) leading to novel, emergent system behaviours. We argue that this focus on contemporary dynamics is too narrow: Eco-evolution should be extended, first, beyond pure demography to include all environmental dimensions and, second, to include slow eco-evolution which unfolds over thousands or millions of years. This extension allows us to conceptualise biological systems as occupying a two-dimensional time space along axes that capture the speed of ecology and evolution. Using Hutchinson's analogy: Time is the 'theatre' in which ecology and evolution are two interacting 'players'. Eco-evolutionary systems are therefore dynamic: We identify modulators of ecological and evolutionary rates, like temperature or sensitivity to mutation, which can change the speed of ecology and evolution, and hence impact eco-evolution. Environmental change may synchronise the speed of ecology and evolution via these rate modulators, increasing the occurrence of eco-evolution and emergent system behaviours. This represents substantial challenges for prediction, especially in the context of global change. Our perspective attempts to integrate ecology and evolution across disciplines, from gene-regulatory networks to geomorphology and across timescales, from today to deep time.

Population size affected by environmental variability impacts genetics, traits, and plant performance in Trifolium montanum L

Population size, genetic diversity, and performance have fundamental importance for ecology, evolution, and nature conservation of plant species. Despite well-studied relationships among environmental, genetic, and intraspecific trait variation (ITV), the influence of population size on these aspects is less understood. To assess the sources of population size variation, but also its impact on genetic, functional trait, and performance aspects, we conducted detailed population size estimations, assessed 23 abiotic and biotic environmental habitat factors, performed population genetic analyses using nine microsatellite markers, and recorded nine functional traits based on 260 Trifolium montanum individuals from 13 semi-dry grassland locations of Central Europe. Modern statistical analyses based on a multivariate framework (path analysis) with preselected linear regression models revealed that the variation of abiotic factors (in contrast to factors per se) almost completely, significantly explained fluctuations in population size (R 2 = .93). In general, abiotic habitat variation (heterogeneity) was not affected by habitat area. Population size significantly explained genetic diversity (N A: R 2 = .42, H o: R 2 = .67, H e: R 2 = .43, and I: R 2 = .59), inbreeding (F IS: R 2 = .35), and differentiation (G ST: R 2 = .20). We also found that iFDCV (ITV) was significantly explained by abiotic habitat heterogeneity, and to a lesser extent by genetic diversity H e (R 2 = .81). Nevertheless, habitat heterogeneity did not statistically affect genetic diversity. This may be due to the use of selectively neutral microsatellite markers, and possibly by insufficient abiotic selective pressures on habitats examined. Small T. montanum populations in nonoptimal habitats were characterized by reduced genetic and functional trait diversity, and elevated genetic inbreeding and differentiation. This indicates reduced adaptability to current and future environmental changes. The long-term survival of small populations with reduced genetic diversity and beginning inbreeding will be highly dependent on habitat protection and adequate land-use actions.

Plant environmental memory: implications, mechanisms and opportunities for plant scientists and beyond

Plants are extremely plastic organisms. They continuously receive and integrate environmental information and adjust their growth and development to favour fitness and survival. When this integration of information affects subsequent life stages or the development of subsequent generations, it can be considered an environmental memory. Thus, plant memory is a relevant mechanism by which plants respond adaptively to different environments. If the cost of maintaining the response is offset by its benefits, it may influence evolutionary trajectories. As such, plant memory has a sophisticated underlying molecular mechanism with multiple components and layers. Nonetheless, when mathematical modelling is combined with knowledge of ecological, physiological, and developmental effects as well as molecular mechanisms as a tool for understanding plant memory, the combined potential becomes unfathomable for the management of plant communities in natural and agricultural ecosystems. In this review, we summarize recent advances in the understanding of plant memory, discuss the ecological requirements for its evolution, outline the multilayered molecular network and mechanisms required for accurate and fail-proof plant responses to variable environments, point out the direct involvement of the plant metabolism and discuss the tremendous potential of various types of models to further our understanding of the plant's environmental memory. Throughout, we emphasize the use of plant memory as a tool to unlock the secrets of the natural world.

Phenotypic plasticity increases exposure to extreme climatic events that reduce individual fitness

Climate models, and empirical observations, suggest that anthropogenic climate change is leading to changes in the occurrence and severity of extreme climatic events (ECEs). Effects of changes in mean climate on phenology, movement, and demography in animal and plant populations are well documented. In contrast, work exploring the impacts of ECEs on natural populations is less common, at least partially due to the challenges of obtaining sufficient data to study such rare events. Here, we assess the effect of changes in ECE patterns in a long-term study of great tits, near Oxford, over a 56-year period between 1965 and 2020. We document marked changes in the frequency of temperature ECEs, with cold ECEs being twice as frequent in the 1960s than at present, and hot ECEs being ~three times more frequent between 2010 and 2020 than in the 1960s. While the effect of single ECEs was generally quite small, we show that increased exposure to ECEs often reduces reproductive output, and that in some cases the effect of different types of ECE is synergistic. We further show that long-term temporal changes in phenology, resulting from phenotypic plasticity, lead to an elevated risk of exposure to low temperature ECEs early in reproduction, and hence suggest that changes in ECE exposure may act as a cost of plasticity. Overall, our analyses reveal a complex set of risks of exposure and effects as ECE patterns change and highlight the importance of considering responses to changes in both mean climate and extreme events. Patterns in exposure and effects of ECEs on natural populations remain underexplored and continued work will be vital to establish the impacts of ECEs on populations in a changing climate.

Looking to the past to understand the future: linking evolutionary modes of response with functional and life history traits in variable environments

In a variable world, plants must have strategies to deal with environmental conditions as they change. Understanding these strategies is critical since climate change not only affects mean conditions but also affects variability and predictability of those conditions. Doing so requires identifying how functional and life history traits interact throughout the life cycle to drive responses, as well as exploring how past variability will shape future responses. Here, I highlight relevant life history theory for predicting strategies in relation to the nature of environmental variability, relate theory to empirical studies integrating functional and life history traits to understand responses, and identify key areas for future research that will facilitate the application of this understanding toward predicting responses to climate change.

Effects of Environmental and Socioeconomic Inequalities on Health Outcomes: A Multi-Region Time-Series Study

The gradual increase in temperatures and changes in relative humidity, added to the aging and socioeconomic conditions of the population, may represent problems for public health, given that future projections predict even more noticeable changes in the climate and the age pyramid, which require analyses at an appropriate spatial scale. To our knowledge, an analysis of the synergic effects of several climatic and socioeconomic conditions on hospital admissions and deaths by cardiorespiratory and mental disorders has not yet been performed in Brazil. Statistical analyses were performed using public time series (1996-2015) of daily health and meteorological data from 16 metropolitan regions (in a subtropical climate zone in South America). Health data were stratified into six groups according to gender and age ranges (40-59; 60-79; and ≥80 years old) for each region. For the regression analysis, two distributions (Poisson and binomial negative) were tested with and without zero adjustments for the complete series and percentiles. Finally, the relative risks were calculated, and the effects based on exposure-response curves were evaluated and compared among regions. The negative binomial distribution fit the data best. High temperatures and low relative humidity were the most relevant risk factors for hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases (lag = 0), while minimum temperatures were important for respiratory diseases (lag = 2 or 3 days). Temperature extremes, both high and low, were the most important risk factors for mental illnesses at lag 0. Groups with people over 60 years old presented higher risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, while this was observed for the adult group (40-59 years old) in relation to mental disorders. In general, no major differences were found in the results between men and women. However, regions with higher urbanization levels presented risks, mainly for respiratory diseases, while the same was observed for cardiovascular diseases for regions with lower levels of urbanization. The Municipal Human Development Index is an important factor for the occurrence of diseases and deaths for all regions, depending on the evaluated group, representing high risks for health outcomes (the value for hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases was 1.6713 for the female adult group in the metropolitan region Palmas, and the value for hospitalization for respiratory diseases was 1.7274 for the female adult group in the metropolitan region Campo Mourão). In general, less developed regions have less access to adequate health care and better living conditions.

Plasticity's role in adaptive evolution depends on environmental change components

To forecast extinction risks of natural populations under climate change and direct human impacts, an integrative understanding of both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution is essential. To date, the evidence for whether, when, and how much plasticity facilitates adaptive responses in changing environments is contradictory. We argue that explicitly considering three key environmental change components - rate of change, variance, and temporal autocorrelation - affords a unifying framework of the impact of plasticity on adaptive evolution. These environmental components each distinctively effect evolutionary and ecological processes underpinning population viability. Using this framework, we develop expectations regarding the interplay between plasticity and adaptive evolution in natural populations. This framework has the potential to improve predictions of population viability in a changing world.

The importance of considering the duration of extreme temperatures when investigating responses to climate change

The frequency and duration of heatwaves are increasing because of human activities. To cope with the changes, species with longer generation times may have to rely on plastic responses. The probability that their responses are adaptive is higher if the species have experienced temperature fluctuations also in their evolutionary past. However, experimental studies investigating responses to heatwaves often use exposure times that are significantly shorter than recent heatwaves. We show that this can lead to faulty conclusions and that the duration of higher temperature has to be considered in experimental designs. We recorded the response of threespine stickleback to prolonged duration of higher temperature during the breeding season, using a population that has experienced large fluctuations in temperature in its past and, hence, is expected to endure temperature changes well. We found males to adaptively adjust their reproductive behaviours to short periods of higher temperature, but not to longer periods that extended across two breeding cycles. Males initially increased their reproductive activities-nest building, courtship and parental care-which ensured high reproductive success during the first breeding cycle, but decreased their reproductive activities during the second breeding cycle when exposed to sustained high temperature. This reduced their courtship success and resulted in fewer offspring. Thus, a species expected to cope well with higher temperature suffers fitness reductions when the duration of high temperature is prolonged. The results stress the importance of considering the duration of extreme environmental conditions when investigating the impact that human activities have on species. Responses to short-term exposures cannot be extrapolated to assess responses to longer periods of extreme conditions.

Spatial correlation reverses the compound effect of multiple stressors on rocky shore biofilm

Understanding how multifactorial fluctuating environments affect species and communities remains one of the major challenges in ecology. The spatial configuration of the environment is known to generate complex patterns of correlation among multiple stressors. However, to what extent the spatial correlation between simultaneously fluctuating variables affects ecological assemblages in real‐world conditions remains poorly understood. Here, we use field experiments and simulations to assess the influence of spatial correlation of two relevant climate variables – warming and sediment deposition following heavy precipitation – on the biomass and photosynthetic activity of rocky intertidal biofilm. First, we used a response‐surface design experiment to establish the relation between biofilm, warming, and sediment deposition in the field. Second, we used the response surface to generate predictions of biofilm performance under different scenarios of warming and sediment correlation. Finally, we tested the predicted outcomes by manipulating the degree of correlation between the two climate variables in a second field experiment. Simulations stemming from the experimentally derived response surface showed how the degree and direction (positive or negative) of spatial correlation between warming and sediment deposition ultimately determined the nonlinear response of biofilm biomass (but not photosynthetic activity) to fluctuating levels of the two climate variables. Experimental results corroborated these predictions, probing the buffering effect of negative spatial correlation against extreme levels of warming and sediment deposition. Together, these results indicate that consideration of nonlinear response functions and local‐scale patterns of correlation between climate drivers can improve our understanding and ability to predict ecological responses to multiple processes in heterogeneous environments.

Life history adaptations to fluctuating environments: Combined effects of demographic buffering and lability

Demographic buffering and lability have been identified as adaptive strategies to optimise fitness in a fluctuating environment. These are not mutually exclusive, however, we lack efficient methods to measure their relative importance for a given life history. Here, we decompose the stochastic growth rate (fitness) into components arising from nonlinear responses and variance-covariance of demographic parameters to an environmental driver, which allows studying joint effects of buffering and lability. We apply this decomposition for 154 animal matrix population models under different scenarios to explore how these main fitness components vary across life histories. Faster-living species appear more responsive to environmental fluctuations, either positively or negatively. They have the highest potential for strong adaptive demographic lability, while demographic buffering is a main strategy in slow-living species. Our decomposition provides a comprehensive framework to study how organisms adapt to variability through buffering and lability, and to predict species responses to climate change.

Role of weather and other factors in the dynamics of a low-density insect population

Insect population dynamics are the result of an interplay between intrinsic factors such as density dependence, trophic web interactions, and external forces such as weather conditions. We investigate potential mechanisms of population dynamics in a natural, low-density insect population. Eggs and larvae of the noctuid moth, Abrostola asclepiadis, develop on its host plant during summer. The population density, and mortality, was closely monitored throughout this period during 15 years. Densities fluctuated between one and two orders of magnitude. Egg-larval developmental time varied substantially among years, with lower survival in cool summers with slower development. This was presumably due to the prolonged exposure to a large guild of polyphagous arthropod enemies. We also found a density-dependent component during this period that could be a result of intraspecific competition for food among the last larval instars. Dynamics during the long period from pupation in late summer through winter survival in the ground to adult emergence and oviposition the next year displayed few clear patterns and more unexplained variability, thus giving a more random appearance. The population hence shows more unexplained or unpredictable variation during the long wintering period, but seems more predictable over the summer egg-larval period. Our study illustrates how weather-via a window of exposure to enemies and in combination with density-dependent processes-can determine the course of population change through the insect life cycle.

Life-history predicts global population responses to the weather in terrestrial mammals

With the looming threat of abrupt ecological disruption due to a changing climate, predicting which species are most vulnerable to environmental change is critical. The life-history of a species is an evolved response to its environmental context, and therefore a promising candidate for explaining differences in climate-change responses. However, we need broad empirical assessments from across the world's ecosystems to explore the link between life history and climate-change responses. Here, we use long-term abundance records from 157 species of terrestrial mammals and a two-step Bayesian meta-regression framework to investigate the link between annual weather anomalies, population growth rates, and species-level life history. Overall, we found no directional effect of temperature or precipitation anomalies or variance on annual population growth rates. Furthermore, population responses to weather anomalies were not predicted by phylogenetic covariance, and instead there was more variability in weather responses for populations within a species. Crucially, however, long-lived mammals with smaller litter sizes had smaller absolute population responses to weather anomalies compared with their shorter living counterparts with larger litters. These results highlight the role of species-level life history in driving responses to the environment.

Weather and butterfly responses: a framework for understanding population dynamics in terms of species' life-cycles and extreme climatic events

Understanding population responses to environmental conditions is key in the current context of climate change and the extreme climatic events that are threatening biodiversity in an unprecedented way. In this work, we provide a framework for understanding butterfly population responses to weather and extreme climatic seasons by taking into account topographic heterogeneity, species' life-cycles and density-dependent processes. We used a citizen-science database of Mediterranean butterflies that contains long-term population data (28 years) on 78 butterfly species from 146 sites in the Mediterranean mesic and alpine climate regions. Climatic data were obtained from 93 meteorological stations operating during this period near the butterfly sites. We studied how seasonal precipitation and temperature affect population growth while taking into account the effects of density dependence. Our results reveal (i) the beneficial effects of winter and spring precipitation for butterfly populations, which are most evident in the Mediterranean region and in univoltine species, and mainly affect the larval stage; (ii) a general negative effect of summer rain in the previous year, which affects the adult stage; and (iii) a consistent negative effect of mild autumns and winters on population growth. In addition, density dependence played a major role in the population dynamics of most species, except for those with long-term negative population trends. Our analyses also provide compelling evidence that both extreme population levels in previous years and extreme climatic seasons in the current year provoke population crashes and explosions, especially in the Mediterranean mesic region.

Life-history traits predict responses of wild bees to climate variation

Life-history traits, which are physical traits or behaviours that affect growth, survivorship and reproduction, could play an important role in how well organisms respond to environmental change. By looking for trait-based responses within groups, we can gain a mechanistic understanding of why environmental change might favour or penalize certain species over others. We monitored the abundance of at least 154 bee species for 8 consecutive years in a subalpine region of the Rocky Mountains to ask whether bees respond differently to changes in abiotic conditions based on their life-history traits. We found that comb-building cavity nesters and larger bodied bees declined in relative abundance with increasing temperatures, while smaller, soil-nesting bees increased. Further, bees with narrower diet breadths increased in relative abundance with decreased rainfall. Finally, reduced snowpack was associated with reduced relative abundance of bees that overwintered as prepupae whereas bees that overwintered as adults increased in relative abundance, suggesting that overwintering conditions might affect body size, lipid content and overwintering survival. Taken together, our results show how climate change may reshape bee pollinator communities, with bees with certain traits increasing in abundance and others declining, potentially leading to novel plant-pollinator interactions and changes in plant reproduction.

Spatial patterns in the contribution of biotic and abiotic factors to the population dynamics of three freshwater fish species

BACKGROUND

Population dynamics are driven by a number of biotic (e.g., density-dependence) and abiotic (e.g., climate) factors whose contribution can greatly vary across study systems (i.e., populations). Yet, the extent to which the contribution of these factors varies across populations and between species and whether spatial patterns can be identified has received little attention.

METHODS

Here, we used a long-term (1982-2011), broad scale (182 sites distributed across metropolitan France) dataset to study spatial patterns in the population's dynamics of three freshwater fish species presenting contrasted life-histories and patterns of elevation range shifts in recent decades. We used a hierarchical Bayesian approach together with an elasticity analysis to estimate the relative contribution of a set of biotic (e.g., strength of density dependence, recruitment rate) and abiotic (mean and variability of water temperature) factors affecting the site-specific dynamic of two different size classes (0⁺ and >0⁺ individuals) for the three species. We then tested whether the local contribution of each factor presented evidence for biogeographical patterns by confronting two non-mutually exclusive hypotheses: the "range-shift" hypothesis that predicts a gradient along elevation or latitude and the "abundant-center" hypothesis that predicts a gradient from the center to the edge of the species' distributional range.

RESULTS

Despite contrasted life-histories, the three species displayed similar large-scale patterns in population dynamics with a much stronger contribution of biotic factors over abiotic ones. Yet, the contribution of the different factors strongly varied within distributional ranges and followed distinct spatial patterns. Indeed, while abiotic factors mostly varied along elevation, biotic factors-which disproportionately contributed to population dynamics-varied along both elevation and latitude.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall while our results provide stronger support for the range-shift hypothesis, they also highlight the dual effect of distinct factors on spatial patterns in population dynamics and can explain the overall difficulty to find general evidence for geographic gradients in natural populations. We propose that considering the separate contribution of the factors affecting population dynamics could help better understand the drivers of abundance-distribution patterns.

Life-history strategy and extinction risk in the warm desert perennial spring ephemeral Astragalus holmgreniorum (Fabaceae)

This study of Astragalus holmgreniorum examines its adaptations to the warm desert environment and whether these adaptations will enable it to persist. Its spring ephemeral hemicryptophyte life-history strategy is unusual in warm deserts. We used data from a 22-year demographic study supplemented with reproductive output, seed bank, and germinant survival studies to examine the population dynamics of this species using discrete-time stochastic matrix modeling. The model showed that A. holmgreniorum is likely to persist in the warm desert in spite of high dormant-season mortality. It relies on a stochastically varying environment with high inter-annual variation in precipitation for persistence, but without a long-lived seed bank, environmental stochasticity confers no advantage. Episodic high reproductive output and frequent seedling recruitment along with a persistent seed bank are adaptations that facilitate its survival. These adaptations place its life-history strategy further along the spectrum from "slower" to "faster" relative to other perennial spring ephemerals. The extinction risk for small populations is relatively high even though mean λ s > 1 because of the high variance in year quality. This risk is also strongly dependent on seed bank starting values, creating a moving window of extinction risk that varies with population size through time. Astragalus holmgreniorum life-history strategy combines the perennial spring ephemeral life form with features more characteristic of desert annuals. These adaptations permit persistence in the warm desert environment. A promising conclusion is that new populations of this endangered species can likely be established through direct seeding.

Effects of Soil Heterogeneity and Species on Plant Interactions

Plant interactions are central in driving the composition and structure of plant populations and communities. Soil heterogeneity and species identity can modulate such interactions, yet require more studies. Thus, a manipulative experiment was done where three soil heterogeneity levels were developed by mixing local soil and sand in three different ratios (i.e., soil:sand ratio = 2:8, 5:5, and 8:2), and three typical species (i.e., Festuca elata, Bromus inermis, and Elymus breviaristatus) were used in different combinations. Soil heterogeneity was assumed to affect plant interactions, which were in turn modified by species. Plant height was applied as an indicator for plant interactions. Relative competition intensity (RCI) was used to quantify plant interactions, where RCI was applied as a ratio of monoculture and mixture performance. Results showed that soil heterogeneity and soil heterogeneity × species significantly affected the RCI in mixtures compared with plant individuals growing alone (i.e., RCI1). However, species as a single factor did not affect RCI1. Moreover, species and soil heterogeneity × species significantly affected the RCI in mixtures compared with two individuals growing together (i.e., RCI2), and the difference between RCI1 and RCI2 (i.e., RCIdiff). Soil heterogeneity significantly affected RCI2 of F. elata. This study suggests that soil heterogeneity could buffer the stability of plant populations by modifying plant interactions, which would subsequently drive plant establishment. To explore the underlying mechanisms of such patterns, further studies considering more species and plant traits are needed.

High-temperature shock consequences on the red flour beetle (Tribolium castaneum) and the rice weevil (Sitophilus oryzae)

Temperature shocks have profound effects on biological and physiological functions at all levels of organization. However, the recovery periods from these shocks and their subsequent impacts remain unknown. Herein, our study investigated the effect of short temperature stress on survival, dormancy recovery time, nutritional indices, life traits and development rate for T. castaneum (larvae and adults) and S. oryzae adults. The results showed significant effects on survival rates of T. castaneum (larvae and adults) and S. oryzae adults. When both insects had been exposed to high-temperature shock, survival rates decreased with higher temperatures and longer periods of exposure. Furthermore, recovery times varied between and within the insect species, as prolonged exposure to thermal shocks increased recovery periods. Moreover, dormancy time resulting from the high-temperature shocks significantly affected food deterrence and food intake, regardless of the stage of development, species, exposure periods and temperature-exposure conditions. Subsequently, differences in body growth rates and food consumption rates are an appropriate indicator of differences in food conversion rates under high-temperature shocks, regardless of the species and developmental stages. On the other hand, our results indicated that as high-temperature shocks increased, the total development period increased of T. castaneum. Likewise, the pupal stage increased with increasing high-temperature shocks, and the larval stage decreased with increasing thermal shocks and increasing the periods of exposure. In summary, our study showed the importance of dormancy recovery time and its subsequent effects for improving disinfestation effectiveness of heat treatment, and understanding insect response to high temperatures.

A sink host allows a specialist herbivore to persist in a seasonal source

In seasonal environments, sinks that are more persistent than sources may serve as temporal stepping stones for specialists. However, this possibility has to our knowledge, not been demonstrated to date, as such environments are thought to select for generalists, and the role of sinks, both in the field and in the laboratory, is difficult to document. Here, we used laboratory experiments to show that herbivorous arthropods associated with seasonally absent main (source) habitats can endure on a suboptimal (sink) host for several generations, albeit with a negative growth rate. Additionally, they dispersed towards this host less often than towards the main host and accepted it less often than the main host. Finally, repeated experimental evolution attempts revealed no adaptation to the suboptimal host. Nevertheless, field observations showed that arthropods are found in suboptimal habitats when the main habitat is unavailable. Together, these results show that evolutionary rescue in the suboptimal habitat is not possible. Instead, the sink habitat functions as a temporal stepping stone, allowing for the persistence of a specialist when the source habitat is gone.

Declines in rodent abundance and diversity track regional climate variability in North American drylands

Regional long-term monitoring can enhance the detection of biodiversity declines associated with climate change, improving future projections by reducing reliance on space-for-time substitution and increasing scalability. Rodents are diverse and important consumers in drylands, regions defined by the scarcity of water that cover 45% of Earth's land surface and face increasingly drier and more variable climates. We analyzed abundance data for 22 rodent species across grassland, shrubland, ecotone, and woodland ecosystems in the southwestern USA. Two time series (1995-2006 and 2004-2013) coincided with phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which influences drought in southwestern North America. Regionally, rodent species diversity declined 20%-35%, with greater losses during the later time period. Abundance also declined regionally, but only during 2004-2013, with losses of 5% of animals captured. During the first time series (wetter climate), plant productivity outranked climate variables as the best regional predictor of rodent abundance for 70% of taxa, whereas during the second period (drier climate), climate best explained variation in abundance for 60% of taxa. Temporal dynamics in diversity and abundance differed spatially among ecosystems, with the largest declines in woodlands and shrublands of central New Mexico and Colorado. Which species were winners or losers under increasing drought and amplified interannual variability in drought depended on ecosystem type and the phase of the PDO. Fewer taxa were significant winners (18%) than losers (30%) under drought, but the identities of winners and losers differed among ecosystems for 70% of taxa. Our results suggest that the sensitivities of rodent species to climate contributed to regional declines in diversity and abundance during 1995-2013. Whether these changes portend future declines in drought-sensitive consumers in the southwestern USA will depend on the climate during the next major PDO cycle.

Diel pCO2 fluctuations alter the molecular response of coral reef fishes to ocean acidification conditions

Environmental partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂ ) variation can modify the responses of marine organisms to ocean acidification, yet the underlying mechanisms for this effect remain unclear. On coral reefs, environmental pCO₂  fluctuates on a regular day-night cycle. Effects of future ocean acidification on coral reef fishes might therefore depend on their response to this diel cycle of pCO₂ . To evaluate the effects on the brain molecular response, we exposed two common reef fishes (Acanthochromis polyacanthus and Amphiprion percula) to two projected future pCO₂  levels (750 and 1,000 µatm) under both stable and diel fluctuating conditions. We found a common signature to stable elevated pCO₂ for both species, which included the downregulation of immediate early genes, indicating lower brain activity. The transcriptional programme was more strongly affected by higher average pCO₂ in a stable treatment than for fluctuating treatments, but the largest difference in molecular response was between stable and fluctuating pCO₂ treatments. This indicates that a response to a change in environmental pCO₂ conditions is different for organisms living in a fluctuating than in stable environments. This differential regulation was related to steroid hormones and circadian rhythm (CR). Both species exhibited a marked difference in the expression of CR genes among pCO₂ treatments, possibly accommodating a more flexible adaptive approach in the response to environmental changes. Our results suggest that environmental pCO₂  fluctuations might enable reef fishes to phase-shift their clocks and anticipate pCO₂ changes, thereby avoiding impairments and more successfully adjust to ocean acidification conditions.

Initial abundance and stochasticity influence competitive outcome in communities

Predicting competitive outcomes in communities frequently involves inferences based on deterministic population models since these provide clear criteria for exclusion (e.g. R* rule) or long-term coexistence (e.g. mutual invasibility). However, incorporating stochasticity into population- or community-level processes into models is necessary if the goal is to explain variation in natural systems, which are inherently stochastic. Similarly, in systems with demographic or environmental stochasticity, weaker competitors have the potential to exclude superior competitors, contributing to what is known as 'competitive indeterminacy'. The importance of such effects for natural communities is unknown, in part because it is difficult to demonstrate that multiple forms of stochasticity are present in these communities. Moreover, the effects of multiple forms of stochasticity on competitive outcomes are largely untested, even in theory. Here, we address these issues by examining the role of stochasticity in replicated communities of flour beetles (Tribolium sp.). To do so, we developed a set of two-species stochastic Ricker models incorporating four distinct forms of stochasticity: environmental stochasticity, demographic stochasticity, demographic heterogeneity and stochastic sex determination. By fitting models to experimental data, and simulating fit models to examine long- term behaviour, we found that both the duration of transient coexistence and the degree of competitive indeterminacy were sensitive to the forms of stochasticity included in our models. These findings suggest the current estimates of extinction risk, coexistence and time until competitive exclusion in communities may not be accurate when based on models that exclude relevant forms of stochasticity.

Effects of intrinsic environmental predictability on intra-individual and intra-population variability of plant reproductive traits and eco-evolutionary consequences

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It is widely accepted that changes in the environment affect mean trait expression, but little is known about how the environment shapes intra-individual and intra-population variance. Theory suggests that intra-individual variance might be plastic and under natural selection, rather than reflecting developmental noise, but evidence for this hypothesis is scarce. Here, we experimentally tested whether differences in intrinsic environmental predictability affect intra-individual and intra-population variability of different reproductive traits, and whether intra-individual variability is under selection.

METHODS

Under field conditions, we subjected Onobrychis viciifolia to more and less predictable precipitation over 4 generations and 4 years. We analysed effects on the coefficient of intra-individual variation (CVi-i) and the coefficient of intra-population variation (CVi-p), assessed whether the coefficients of intra-individual variation (CsVi-i) are under natural selection and tested for transgenerational responses (ancestor environmental effects on offspring).

KEY RESULTS

Less predictable precipitation led to higher CsVi-i and CsVi-p, consistent with plastic responses. The CsVi-i of all studied traits were under consistent stabilizing selection, and precipitation predictability affected the strength of selection and the location of the optimal CVi-i of a single trait. All CsVi-i differed from the optimal CVi-i and the maternal and offspring CsVi-i were positively correlated, showing that there was scope for change. Nevertheless, no consistent transgenerational effects were found in any of the three descendant generations, which contrasts with recent studies that detected rapid transgenerational responses in the trait means of different plant species. This suggests that changes in intra-individual variability take longer to evolve than changes in trait means, which may explain why high intra-individual variability is maintained, despite the stabilizing selection.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that plastic changes of intra-individual variability are an important determinant of whether plants will be able to cope with changes in environmental predictability induced by the currently observed climatic change.

Interrelated impacts of climate and land-use change on a widespread waterbird

Together climate and land-use change play a crucial role in determining species distribution and abundance, but measuring the simultaneous impacts of these processes on current and future population trajectories is challenging due to time lags, interactive effects and data limitations. Most approaches that relate multiple global change drivers to population changes have been based on occurrence or count data alone. We leveraged three long-term (1995-2019) datasets to develop a coupled integrated population model-Bayesian population viability analysis (IPM-BPVA) to project future survival and reproductive success for common loons Gavia immer in northern Wisconsin, USA, by explicitly linking vital rates to changes in climate and land use. The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a broad-scale climate index, immediately preceding the breeding season and annual changes in developed land cover within breeding areas both had strongly negative influences on adult survival. Local summer rainfall was negatively related to fecundity, though this relationship was mediated by a lagged interaction with the winter NAO, suggesting a compensatory population-level response to climate variability. We compared population viability under 12 future scenarios of annual land-use change, precipitation and NAO conditions. Under all scenarios, the loon population was expected to decline, yet the steepest declines were projected under positive NAO trends, as anticipated with ongoing climate change. Thus, loons breeding in the northern United States are likely to remain affected by climatic processes occurring thousands of miles away in the North Atlantic during the non-breeding period of the annual cycle. Our results reveal that climate and land-use changes are differentially contributing to loon population declines along the southern edge of their breeding range and will continue to do so despite natural compensatory responses. We also demonstrate that concurrent analysis of multiple data types facilitates deeper understanding of the ecological implications of anthropogenic-induced change occurring at multiple spatial scales. Our modelling approach can be used to project demographic responses of populations to varying environmental conditions while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, an increasingly pressing need in the face of unprecedented global change.

Effects of variable oxygen regimes on mitochondrial bioenergetics and reactive oxygen species production in a marine bivalve, Mya arenaria

Estuarine and coastal benthic organisms often experience fluctuations in oxygen levels that can negatively impact their mitochondrial function and aerobic metabolism. To study these impacts, we exposed a common sediment-dwelling bivalve, the soft-shell clam Mya arenaria, for 21 days to chronic hypoxia (P _O2  ∼4.1 kPa), cyclic hypoxia (P _O2  ∼12.7-1.9 kPa, mean 5.7 kPa) or normoxia (P _O2  ∼21.1 kPa). pH was manipulated to mimic the covariation in CO₂/pH and oxygen levels in coastal hypoxic zones. Mitochondrial respiration, including proton leak, the capacity for oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS), the maximum activity of the electron transport system (ETS), reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, and activity and oxygen affinity of cytochrome c oxidase (CCO) were assessed. Acclimation to constant hypoxia did not affect the studied mitochondrial traits except for a modest decrease in the OXPHOS coupling efficiency. Cyclic hypoxia had no effect on OXPHOS or ETS capacity, but increased proton leak and lowered mitochondrial OXPHOS coupling efficiency. Furthermore, mitochondria of clams acclimated to cyclic hypoxia had higher rates of ROS generation compared with the clams acclimated to normoxia or chronic hypoxia. CCO activity was upregulated under cyclic hypoxia, but oxygen affinity of CCO did not change. These findings indicate that long-term cyclic hypoxia has a stronger impact on the mitochondria of M. arenaria than chronic hypoxia and might lead to impaired ATP synthesis, higher costs of mitochondrial maintenance and oxidative stress. These changes might negatively affect populations of M. arenaria in the coastal Baltic Sea under increasing hypoxia pressure.

Thermal performance of the Chagas disease vector, Triatoma infestans, under thermal variability

Vector-borne diseases (VBD) are particularly susceptible to climate change because most of the diseases' vectors are ectotherms, which themselves are susceptible to thermal changes. The Chagas disease is one neglected tropical disease caused by the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi. One of the main vectors of the Chagas disease in South America is Triatoma infestans, a species traditionally considered to be restricted to domestic or peridomestic habitats, but sylvatic foci have also been described along its distribution. The infestation of wild individuals, together with the projections of environmental changes due to global warming, urge the need to understand the relationship between temperature and the vector's performance. Here, we evaluated the impact of temperature variability on the thermal response of T. infestans. We acclimated individuals to six thermal treatments for five weeks to then estimate their thermal performance curves (TPCs) by measuring the walking speed of the individuals. We found that the TPCs varied with thermal acclimation and body mass. Individuals acclimated to a low and variable ambient temperature (18°C ± 5°C) exhibited lower performances than those individuals acclimated to an optimal temperature (27°C ± 0°C); while those individuals acclimated to a low but constant temperature (18°C ± 0°C) did not differ in their maximal performance from those at an optimal temperature. Additionally, thermal variability (i.e., ± 5°C) at a high temperature (30°C) increased performance. These results evidenced the plastic response of T. infestans to thermal acclimation. This plastic response and the non-linear effect of thermal variability on the performance of T. infestans posit challenges when predicting changes in the vector's distribution range under climate change.

Temperature fluctuations in a warmer environment: impacts on microbial plankton

Warming can cause changes in the structure and functioning of microbial food webs. Experimental studies quantifying such impacts on microbial plankton have tended to consider constant temperature conditions. However, Jensen's inequality (or the fallacy of the average) recognizes that organism performance under constant conditions is seldom equal to the mean performance under variable conditions, highlighting the need to consider in situ fluctuations over a range of time scales. Here we review some of the available evidence on how warming effects on the abundance, diversity, and metabolism of microbial plankton are altered when temperature fluctuations are considered. We found that fluctuating temperatures may accentuate warming-mediated reductions in phytoplankton evenness and gross photosynthesis while synergistically increasing phytoplankton growth. Also, fluctuating temperatures have been shown to reduce the positive warming effect on cyanobacterial biomass production and recruitment and to reverse a warming effect on cellular nutrient quotas. Other reports have shown that fluctuations in temperature did not alter plankton responses to constant warming. These investigations have mostly focused on a few phytoplankton species (i.e. diatoms and haptophytes) in temperate and marine ecosystems and considered short-term and transient responses. It remains unknown whether the same responses apply to other species and ecosystems and if evolutionary change in thermally varying environments could alter the magnitude and direction of the responses to warming observed over short-term scales. Thus, future research efforts should address the role of fluctuations in environmental drivers. We stress the need to study responses over different biological organization and trophic levels, nutritional modes, temporal scales, and ecosystem types.

Functionally reversible impacts of disturbances on lake food webs linked to spatial and seasonal dependencies

Increasing human impact on the environment is causing drastic changes in disturbance regimes and how they prevail over time. Of increasing relevance is to further our understanding on biological responses to pulse disturbances (short duration) and how they interact with other ongoing press disturbances (constantly present). Because the temporal and spatial contexts of single experiments often limit our ability to generalize results across space and time, we conducted a modularized mesocosm experiment replicated in space (five lakes along a latitudinal gradient in Scandinavia) and time (two seasons, spring and summer) to generate general predictions on how the functioning and composition of multitrophic plankton communities (zoo-, phyto- and bacterioplankton) respond to pulse disturbances acting either in isolation or combined with press disturbances. As pulse disturbance, we used short-term changes in fish presence, and as press disturbance, we addressed the ongoing reduction in light availability caused by increased cloudiness and lake browning in many boreal and subarctic lakes. First, our results show that the top-down pulse disturbance had the strongest effects on both functioning and composition of the three trophic levels across sites and seasons, with signs for interactive impacts with the bottom-up press disturbance on phytoplankton communities. Second, community composition responses to disturbances were highly divergent between lakes and seasons: temporal accumulated community turnover of the same trophic level either increased (destabilization) or decreased (stabilization) in response to the disturbances compared to control conditions. Third, we found functional recovery from the pulse disturbances to be frequent at the end of most experiments. In a broader context, these results demonstrate that top-down, pulse disturbances, either alone or with additional constant stress upon primary producers caused by bottom-up disturbances, can induce profound but often functionally reversible changes across multiple trophic levels, which are strongly linked to spatial and temporal context dependencies. Furthermore, the identified dichotomy of disturbance effects on the turnover in community composition demonstrates the potential of disturbances to either stabilize or destabilize biodiversity patterns over time across a wide range of environmental conditions.

Metamorphosis in an Era of Increasing Climate Variability

Most animals have complex life cycles including metamorphosis or other discrete life stage transitions, during which individuals may be particularly vulnerable to environmental stressors. With climate change, individuals will be exposed to increasing thermal and hydrologic variability during metamorphosis, which may affect survival and performance through physiological, behavioral, and ecological mechanisms. Furthermore, because metamorphosis entails changes in traits and vital rates, it is likely to play an important role in how populations respond to increasing climate variability. To identify mechanisms underlying population responses and associated trait and life history evolution, we need new approaches to estimating changes in individual traits and performance throughout metamorphosis, and we need to integrate metamorphosis as an explicit life stage in analytical models.

Flowering season of vernal herbs is shortened at elevated temperatures with reduced precipitation in early spring

Vernal herbs are exposed to the risk of climate change under spring frost and canopy closure. Although vernal herbs contribute to the biodiversity of the understorey layer in temperate forests, few studies assessed the effect of climate change on the phenology of the herbs. To examine phenological shifts in flowering seasons of vernal herb species caused by climate change, a greenhouse experiment was conducted using four species (Adonis amurensis, Hepatica nobilis var. japonica, Viola phalacrocarpa, and Pulsatilla cernua) under two temperature conditions (ambient or elevated temperature) and two precipitation conditions (convective or reduced precipitation). Experimental warming advanced overall aspects of the flowering timing including the first and last day of flowering. The growth of flowering stalk was also promoted by elevated temperature. Effects of decreased precipitation varied among species, which advanced the last day of the flowering of the later flowering species. Consequently, a decrease in overall flowering period length was observed. These results indicate that overall, climate change results in a shortening of the flowering season of vernal herb species, specifically at a higher temperature and under conditions of less precipitation.

Abiotic and past climatic conditions drive protein abundance variation among natural populations of the caddisfly Crunoecia irrorata

Deducing impacts of environmental change on species and the populations they form in nature is an important goal in contemporary ecology. Achieving this goal is hampered by our limited understanding of the influence of naturally occurring environmental variation on the molecular systems of ecologically relevant species, as the pathways underlying fitness-affecting plastic responses have primarily been studied in model organisms and under controlled laboratory conditions. Here, to test the hypothesis that proteome variation systematically relates to variation in abiotic conditions, we establish such relationships by profiling the proteomes of 24 natural populations of the spring-dwelling caddisfly Crunoecia irrorata. We identified protein networks whose abundances correlated with environmental (abiotic) gradients such as in situ pH, oxygen- and nitrate concentrations but also climatic data such as past thermal minima and temperature seasonality. Our analyses suggest that variations in abiotic conditions induce discrete proteome responses such as the differential abundance of proteins associated with cytoskeletal function, heat-shock proteins and proteins related to post-translational modification. Identifying these drivers of proteome divergence characterizes molecular "noise", and positions it as a background against which molecular signatures of species' adaptive responses to stressful conditions can be identified.

Rapid functional traits turnover in boreal dragonfly communities (Odonata)

All natural populations show fluctuations in space or time. This is fundamental for the maintenance of biodiversity, as it allows species to coexist. Long-term ecological studies are rare, mainly due to logistics, but studies like the one presented below recognize the dimensionality of temporal change and the ecological processes that lead to shifts in community composition over time. Here, we used three sampling occasions from a dataset spanning 20 years where dragonflies in central Sweden were monitored. Our aim was to investigate how the prevalence of ecological and biological species traits varied over time measured as Community-level Weighted Means of trait values (CWM). Most CWM values varied significantly between years. Most of the traits changed between the second and the last sampling occasion, but not between the two first ones. These changes could be linked to major changes in species abundance. Our work indicates that fundamental shifts in community structure can occur over a short time, providing environmental drivers act on species turnover. In our case, Climate change and pH levels in lakes are most likely the most important factors.

Investigating the Dynamics of Elk Population Size and Body Mass in a Seasonal Environment Using a Mechanistic Integral Projection Model

Environmentally mediated changes in body size often underlie population responses to environmental change, yet this is not a universal phenomenon. Understanding when phenotypic change underlies population responses to environmental change is important for obtaining insights and robust predictions of population dynamics in a changing world. We develop a dynamic integral projection model that mechanistically links environmental conditions to demographic rates and phenotypic traits (body size) via changes in resource availability and individual energetics. We apply the model to the northern Yellowstone elk population and explore population responses to changing patterns of seasonality, incorporating the interdependence of growth, demography, and density-dependent processes operating through population feedback on available resources. We found that small changes in body size distributions can have large impacts on population dynamics but need not cause population responses to environmental change. Environmental changes that altered demographic rates directly, via increasing or decreasing resource availability, led to large population impacts in the absence of substantial changes to body size distributions. In contrast, environmentally driven shifts in body size distributions could occur with little consequence for population dynamics when the effect of environmental change on resource availability was small and seasonally restricted and when strong density-dependent processes counteracted expected population responses. These findings highlight that a robust understanding of how associations between body size and demography influence population responses to environmental change will require knowledge of the shape of the relationship between phenotypic distributions and vital rates, the population status with regard to its carrying capacity, and importantly the nature of the environmentally driven change in body size and carrying capacity.

Sea ice predicts long-term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range-wide multiscale analysis

Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range-wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., "prevailing" environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year-to-year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year-to-year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short-term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short- and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.

Storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics in lakes

In many regions across the globe, extreme weather events such as storms have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change. Ecological theory predicts that such extreme events should have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. High winds and precipitation associated with storms can affect lakes via short-term runoff events from watersheds and physical mixing of the water column. In addition, lakes connected to rivers and streams will also experience flushing due to high flow rates. Although we have a well-developed understanding of how wind and precipitation events can alter lake physical processes and some aspects of biogeochemical cycling, our mechanistic understanding of the emergent responses of phytoplankton communities is poor. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis that identifies how storms interact with lake and watershed attributes and their antecedent conditions to generate changes in lake physical and chemical environments. Such changes can restructure phytoplankton communities and their dynamics, as well as result in altered ecological function (e.g., carbon, nutrient and energy cycling) in the short- and long-term. We summarize the current understanding of storm-induced phytoplankton dynamics, identify knowledge gaps with a systematic review of the literature, and suggest future research directions across a gradient of lake types and environmental conditions.

The Demographic Buffering Hypothesis: Evidence and Challenges

In (st)age-structured populations, the long-run population growth rate is negatively affected by temporal variation in vital rates. In most cases, natural selection should minimize temporal variation in the vital rates to which the long-run population growth is most sensitive, resulting in demographic buffering. By reviewing empirical studies on demographic buffering in wild populations, we found overall support for this hypothesis. However, we also identified issues when testing for demographic buffering. In particular, solving scaling problems for decomposing, measuring, and comparing stochastic variation in vital rates and accounting for density dependence are required in future tests of demographic buffering. In the current context of climate change, demographic buffering may mitigate the negative impact of environmental variation and help populations to persist in an increasingly variable environment.

Integrating broad-scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird

Climate variation and trends affect species distribution and abundance across large spatial extents. However, most studies that predict species response to climate are implemented at small spatial scales or are based on occurrence-environment relationships that lack mechanistic detail. Here, we develop an integrated population model (IPM) for multi-site count and capture-recapture data for a declining migratory songbird, Wilson's warbler (Cardellina pusilla), in three genetically distinct breeding populations in western North America. We include climate covariates of vital rates, including spring temperatures on the breeding grounds, drought on the wintering range in northwest Mexico, and wind conditions during spring migration. Spring temperatures were positively related to productivity in Sierra Nevada and Pacific Northwest genetic groups, and annual changes in productivity were important predictors of changes in growth rate in these populations. Drought condition on the wintering grounds was a strong predictor of adult survival for coastal California and Sierra Nevada populations; however, adult survival played a relatively minor role in explaining annual variation in population change. A latent parameter representing a mixture of first-year survival and immigration was the largest contributor to variation in population change; however, this parameter was estimated imprecisely, and its importance likely reflects, in part, differences in spatio-temporal distribution of samples between count and capture-recapture data sets. Our modeling approach represents a novel and flexible framework for linking broad-scale multi-site monitoring data sets. Our results highlight both the potential of the approach for extension to additional species and systems, as well as needs for additional data and/or model development.

Phenotypic memory drives population growth and extinction risk in a noisy environment

Random environmental fluctuations pose major threats to wild populations. As patterns of environmental noise are themselves altered by global change, there is growing need to identify general mechanisms underlying their effects on population dynamics. This notably requires understanding and predicting population responses to the color of environmental noise, i.e. its temporal autocorrelation pattern. Here, we show experimentally that environmental autocorrelation has a large influence on population dynamics and extinction rates, which can be predicted accurately provided that a memory of past environment is accounted for. We exposed near to 1000 lines of the microalgae Dunaliella salina to randomly fluctuating salinity, with autocorrelation ranging from negative to highly positive. We found lower population growth, and twice as many extinctions, under lower autocorrelation. These responses closely matched predictions based on a tolerance curve with environmental memory, showing that non-genetic inheritance can be a major driver of population dynamics in randomly fluctuating environments.

Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal

Natural populations are exposed to seasonal variation in environmental factors that simultaneously affect several demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction). The resulting covariation in these rates determines population dynamics, but accounting for its numerous biotic and abiotic drivers is a significant challenge. Here, we use a factor-analytic approach to capture partially unobserved drivers of seasonal population dynamics. We use 40 years of individual-based demography from yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to fit and project population models that account for seasonal demographic covariation using a latent variable. We show that this latent variable, by producing positive covariation among winter demographic rates, depicts a measure of environmental quality. Simultaneously, negative responses of winter survival and reproductive-status change to declining environmental quality result in a higher risk of population quasi-extinction, regardless of summer demography where recruitment takes place. We demonstrate how complex environmental processes can be summarized to understand population persistence in seasonal environments.