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Yim C, Bellis ES, DeLeo VL, Gamba D, Muscarella R, Lasky JR. Climate biogeography of Arabidopsis thaliana: linking distribution models and individual variation. JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY 2024; 51:560-574. [PMID: 38596256 PMCID: PMC11000247 DOI: 10.1111/jbi.14737] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2022] [Accepted: 09/19/2023] [Indexed: 04/11/2024]
Abstract
AIM Patterns of individual variation are key to testing hypotheses about the mechanisms underlying biogeographic patterns. If species distributions are determined by environmental constraints, then populations near range margins may have reduced performance and be adapted to harsher environments. Model organisms are potentially important systems for biogeographical studies, given the available range-wide natural history collections, and the importance of providing biogeographical context to their genetic and phenotypic diversity. LOCATION Global. TAXON Arabidopsis thaliana ("Arabidopsis"). METHODS We fit occurrence records to climate data, and then projected the distribution of Arabidopsis under last glacial maximum, current, and future climates. We confronted model predictions with individual performance measured on 2,194 herbarium specimens, and we asked whether predicted suitability was associated with life-history and genomic variation measured on ~900 natural accessions. RESULTS The most important climate variables constraining the Arabidopsis distribution were winter cold in northern and high elevation regions and summer heat in southern regions. Herbarium specimens from regions with lower habitat suitability in both northern and southern regions were smaller, supporting the hypothesis that the distribution of Arabidopsis is constrained by climate-associated factors. Climate anomalies partly explained interannual variation in herbarium specimen size, but these did not closely correspond to local limiting factors identified in the distribution model. Late-flowering genotypes were absent from the lowest suitability regions, suggesting slower life histories are only viable closer to the center of the realized niche. We identified glacial refugia farther north than previously recognized, as well as refugia concordant with previous population genetic findings. Lower latitude populations, known to be genetically distinct, are most threatened by future climate change. The recently colonized range of Arabidopsis was well-predicted by our native-range model applied to certain regions but not others, suggesting it has colonized novel climates. MAIN CONCLUSIONS Integration of distribution models with performance data from vast natural history collections is a route forward for testing biogeographical hypotheses about species distributions and their relationship with evolutionary fitness across large scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christina Yim
- Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA
| | - Emily S. Bellis
- Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA
- Department of Computer Science, Arkansas State University, Jonesboro, USA
| | - Victoria L. DeLeo
- Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA
| | - Diana Gamba
- Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA
| | - Robert Muscarella
- Plant Ecology and Evolution, Evolutionary Biology Centre, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Jesse R. Lasky
- Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA
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2
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McElwain JC, Matthaeus WJ, Barbosa C, Chondrogiannis C, O' Dea K, Jackson B, Knetge AB, Kwasniewska K, Nair R, White JD, Wilson JP, Montañez IP, Buckley YM, Belcher CM, Nogué S. Functional traits of fossil plants. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2024; 242:392-423. [PMID: 38409806 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19622] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 02/28/2024]
Abstract
A minuscule fraction of the Earth's paleobiological diversity is preserved in the geological record as fossils. What plant remnants have withstood taphonomic filtering, fragmentation, and alteration in their journey to become part of the fossil record provide unique information on how plants functioned in paleo-ecosystems through their traits. Plant traits are measurable morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical, or phenological characteristics that potentially affect their environment and fitness. Here, we review the rich literature of paleobotany, through the lens of contemporary trait-based ecology, to evaluate which well-established extant plant traits hold the greatest promise for application to fossils. In particular, we focus on fossil plant functional traits, those measurable properties of leaf, stem, reproductive, or whole plant fossils that offer insights into the functioning of the plant when alive. The limitations of a trait-based approach in paleobotany are considerable. However, in our critical assessment of over 30 extant traits we present an initial, semi-quantitative ranking of 26 paleo-functional traits based on taphonomic and methodological criteria on the potential of those traits to impact Earth system processes, and for that impact to be quantifiable. We demonstrate how valuable inferences on paleo-ecosystem processes (pollination biology, herbivory), past nutrient cycles, paleobiogeography, paleo-demography (life history), and Earth system history can be derived through the application of paleo-functional traits to fossil plants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer C McElwain
- School of Natural Sciences, Botany, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, D02 PN40, Ireland
| | - William J Matthaeus
- School of Natural Sciences, Botany, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, D02 PN40, Ireland
| | - Catarina Barbosa
- School of Natural Sciences, Botany, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, D02 PN40, Ireland
| | | | - Katie O' Dea
- School of Natural Sciences, Botany, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, D02 PN40, Ireland
| | - Bea Jackson
- School of Natural Sciences, Botany, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, D02 PN40, Ireland
| | - Antonietta B Knetge
- School of Natural Sciences, Botany, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, D02 PN40, Ireland
| | - Kamila Kwasniewska
- School of Natural Sciences, Botany, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, D02 PN40, Ireland
| | - Richard Nair
- School of Natural Sciences, Botany, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, D02 PN40, Ireland
| | - Joseph D White
- Department of Biology, Baylor University, Waco, 76798-7388, TX, USA
| | - Jonathan P Wilson
- Department of Environmental Studies, Haverford College, Haverford, Pennsylvania, 19041, PA, USA
| | - Isabel P Montañez
- UC Davis Institute of the Environment, University of California, Davis, CA, 95616, USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA, 95616, USA
| | - Yvonne M Buckley
- School of Natural Sciences, Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, D02 PN40, Ireland
| | | | - Sandra Nogué
- Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), 08193, Catalonia, Spain
- CREAF, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès), 08193, Catalonia, Spain
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3
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Fletcher RA, Atwater DZ, Haak DC, Bagavathiannan MV, DiTommaso A, Lehnhoff E, Paterson AH, Auckland S, Govindasamy P, Lemke C, Morris E, Rainville L, Barney JN. Adaptive constraints at the range edge of a widespread and expanding invasive plant. AOB PLANTS 2023; 15:plad070. [PMID: 38028747 PMCID: PMC10651072 DOI: 10.1093/aobpla/plad070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 11/03/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023]
Abstract
Identifying the factors that facilitate and limit invasive species' range expansion has both practical and theoretical importance, especially at the range edges. Here, we used reciprocal common garden experiments spanning the North/South and East/West range that include the North American core, intermediate and range edges of the globally invasive plant, Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense) to investigate the interplay of climate, biotic interactions (i.e. competition) and patterns of adaptation. Our results suggest that the rapid range expansion of Johnsongrass into diverse environments across wide geographies occurred largely without local adaptation, but that further range expansion may be restricted by a fitness trade-off that limits population growth at the range edge. Interestingly, plant competition strongly dampened Johnsongrass growth but did not change the rank order performance of populations within a garden, though this varied among gardens (climates). Our findings highlight the importance of including the range edge when studying the range dynamics of invasive species, especially as we try to understand how invasive species will respond to accelerating global changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca A Fletcher
- School of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Virginia Tech, 1015 Life Science Circle, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA
| | - Daniel Z Atwater
- Department of Animal & Range Sciences, Montana State University, 103 Animal Biosciences Building, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
| | - David C Haak
- School of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Virginia Tech, 1015 Life Science Circle, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA
| | - Muthukumar V Bagavathiannan
- Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Texas A&M University, 370 Olsen Boulevard, College Station, TX 77843, USA
| | - Antonio DiTommaso
- School of Integrative Plant Science, Section of Soil and Crop Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
| | - Erik Lehnhoff
- Department of Entomology, Plant Pathology, and Weed Science, New Mexico State University, MSC 3BE, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA
| | - Andrew H Paterson
- Plant Genome Mapping Laboratory, University of Georgia, 111 Riverbend Road, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Susan Auckland
- Plant Genome Mapping Laboratory, University of Georgia, 111 Riverbend Road, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Prabhu Govindasamy
- Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Texas A&M University, 370 Olsen Boulevard, College Station, TX 77843, USA
- Division of Agronomy, ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi 110012, India
| | - Cornelia Lemke
- Plant Genome Mapping Laboratory, University of Georgia, 111 Riverbend Road, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Edward Morris
- Department of Entomology, Plant Pathology, and Weed Science, New Mexico State University, MSC 3BE, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA
| | - Lisa Rainville
- Plant Genome Mapping Laboratory, University of Georgia, 111 Riverbend Road, Athens, GA 30602, USA
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4
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Bernard C, Santos GS, Deere JA, Rodriguez-Caro R, Capdevila P, Kusch E, Gascoigne SJL, Jackson J, Salguero-Gómez R. MOSAIC - A Unified Trait Database to Complement Structured Population Models. Sci Data 2023; 10:335. [PMID: 37264011 PMCID: PMC10235418 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02070-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2022] [Accepted: 03/14/2023] [Indexed: 06/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Despite exponential growth in ecological data availability, broader interoperability amongst datasets is needed to unlock the potential of open access. Our understanding of the interface of demography and functional traits is well-positioned to benefit from such interoperability. Here, we introduce MOSAIC, an open-access trait database that unlocks the demographic potential stored in the COMADRE, COMPADRE, and PADRINO open-access databases. MOSAIC data were digitised and curated through a combination of existing datasets and new trait records sourced from primary literature. In its first release, MOSAIC (v. 1.0.0) includes 14 trait fields for 300 animal and plant species: biomass, height, growth determination, regeneration, sexual dimorphism, mating system, hermaphrodism, sequential hermaphrodism, dispersal capacity, type of dispersal, mode of dispersal, dispersal classes, volancy, and aquatic habitat dependency. MOSAIC includes species-level phylogenies for 1,359 species and population-specific climate data. We identify how database integration can improve our understanding of traits well-quantified in existing repositories and those that are poorly quantified (e.g., growth determination, modularity). MOSAIC highlights emerging challenges associated with standardising databases and demographic measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Connor Bernard
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, 11a Mansfield Rd, OX13SZ, Oxford, United Kingdom.
| | - Gabriel Silva Santos
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, 11a Mansfield Rd, OX13SZ, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Department of Ecology, Rio de Janeiro State University, 20550-900, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- National Institute of the Atlantic Forest (INMA), 29650-000, Santa Teresa, Espírito Santo, Brazil
| | - Jacques A Deere
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, 11a Mansfield Rd, OX13SZ, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Department of Evolutionary and Population Biology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1012 WX, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Roberto Rodriguez-Caro
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, 11a Mansfield Rd, OX13SZ, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Departamento de Biología Aplicada, Universidad Miguel Hernández. Av. Universidad, s/n, 03202, Elche (Alicante), Spain
| | - Pol Capdevila
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, 11a Mansfield Rd, OX13SZ, Oxford, United Kingdom
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, 24 Tyndall Ave, Bristol, BS8 1TQ, United Kingdom
| | - Erik Kusch
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Arhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
- Section for Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Arhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Samuel J L Gascoigne
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, 11a Mansfield Rd, OX13SZ, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - John Jackson
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, 11a Mansfield Rd, OX13SZ, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, 11a Mansfield Rd, OX13SZ, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD, Australia
- Evolutionary Demography Laboratory, Max Plank Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
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5
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Ljubičić I, Varga F, Bogdanović S, Sklepić L, Britvec M, Temunović M. Comparative assessment of habitat suitability and niche overlap of three medicinal and melliferous Satureja L. species (Lamiaceae) from the eastern Adriatic region: Exploring potential for cultivation. ECOL INFORM 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2023.102066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/14/2023]
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6
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Giaimo S, Traulsen A. Age-specific sensitivity analysis of stable, stochastic and transient growth for stage-classified populations. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e9561. [PMID: 36545365 PMCID: PMC9763023 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2022] [Accepted: 11/02/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Sensitivity analysis in ecology and evolution is a valuable guide to rank demographic parameters depending on their relevance to population growth. Here, we propose a method to make the sensitivity analysis of population growth for matrix models solely classified by stage more fine-grained by considering the effect of age-specific parameters. The method applies to stable population growth, the stochastic growth rate, and transient growth. The method yields expressions for the sensitivity of stable population growth to age-specific survival and fecundity from which general properties are derived about the pattern of age-specific selective forces molding senescence in stage-classified populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stefano Giaimo
- Department of Evolutionary TheoryMax Planck Institute for Evolutionary BiologyPlönGermany
| | - Arne Traulsen
- Department of Evolutionary TheoryMax Planck Institute for Evolutionary BiologyPlönGermany
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7
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Morente‐López J, Kass JM, Lara‐Romero C, Serra‐Diaz JM, Soto‐Correa JC, Anderson RP, Iriondo JM. Linking ecological niche models and common garden experiments to predict phenotypic differentiation in stressful environments: Assessing the adaptive value of marginal populations in an alpine plant. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:4143-4162. [PMID: 35359032 PMCID: PMC9325479 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2021] [Revised: 02/25/2022] [Accepted: 03/08/2022] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Environmental variation within a species' range can create contrasting selective pressures, leading to divergent selection and novel adaptations. The conservation value of populations inhabiting environmentally marginal areas remains in debate and is closely related to the adaptive potential in changing environments. Strong selection caused by stressful conditions may generate novel adaptations, conferring these populations distinct evolutionary potential and high conservation value under climate change. On the other hand, environmentally marginal populations may be genetically depauperate, with little potential for new adaptations to emerge. Here, we explored the use of ecological niche models (ENMs) linked with common garden experiments to predict and test for genetically determined phenotypic differentiation related to contrasting environmental conditions. To do so, we built an ENM for the alpine plant Silene ciliata in central Spain and conducted common garden experiments, assessing flowering phenology changes and differences in leaf cell resistance to extreme temperatures. The suitability patterns and response curves of the ENM led to the predictions that: (1) the environmentally marginal populations experiencing less snowpack and higher minimum temperatures would have delayed flowering to avoid risks of late-spring frosts and (2) those with higher minimum temperatures and greater potential evapotranspiration would show enhanced cell resistance to high temperatures to deal with physiological stress related to desiccation and heat. The common garden experiments revealed the expected genetically based phenotypic differentiation in flowering phenology. In contrast, they did not show the expected differentiation for cell resistance, but these latter experiments had high variance and hence lower statistical power. The results highlight ENMs as useful tools to identify contrasting putative selective pressures across species ranges. Linking ENMs with common garden experiments provides a theoretically justified and practical way to study adaptive processes, including insights regarding the conservation value of populations inhabiting environmentally marginal areas under ongoing climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Javier Morente‐López
- Área de Biodiversidad y ConservaciónDepto. de Biología, GeologíaFísica y Química InorgánicaESCETUniversidad Rey Juan Carlos (URJC)MadridMóstolesSpain
- Island Ecology and Evolution Research GroupInstitute of Natural Products and Agrobiology, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPNA‐CSIC)San Cristóbal de La Laguna, TenerifeSpain
| | - Jamie M. Kass
- Department of BiologyCity College of New YorkCity University of New YorkNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Ph.D. Program in BiologyGraduate CenterCity University of New YorkNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Biodiversity and Biocomplexity UnitOkinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate UniversityKunigami‐gunOkinawaJapan
| | - Carlos Lara‐Romero
- Área de Biodiversidad y ConservaciónDepto. de Biología, GeologíaFísica y Química InorgánicaESCETUniversidad Rey Juan Carlos (URJC)MadridMóstolesSpain
| | | | - José Carmen Soto‐Correa
- Facultad de Ciencias NaturalesUniversidad Autónoma de Querétaro (FCN‐UAQ)Santa Rosa Jáuregui, QuerétaroMexico
| | - Robert P. Anderson
- Department of BiologyCity College of New YorkCity University of New YorkNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Ph.D. Program in BiologyGraduate CenterCity University of New YorkNew YorkNew YorkUSA
- Division of Vertebrate Zoology (Mammalogy)American Museum of Natural HistoryNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - José M. Iriondo
- Área de Biodiversidad y ConservaciónDepto. de Biología, GeologíaFísica y Química InorgánicaESCETUniversidad Rey Juan Carlos (URJC)MadridMóstolesSpain
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8
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Ottaviani G, Méndez‐Castro FE, Conti L, Zelený D, Chytrý M, Doležal J, Jandová V, Altman J, Klimešová J. Sticking around: Plant persistence strategies on edaphic islands. DIVERS DISTRIB 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13586] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Gianluigi Ottaviani
- Institute of Botany The Czech Academy of Sciences Třeboň Czech Republic
- Department of Botany and Zoology Faculty of Science, Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic
| | | | - Luisa Conti
- Institute of Botany The Czech Academy of Sciences Třeboň Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic
| | - David Zelený
- Institute of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology National Taiwan University Taipei Taiwan
| | - Milan Chytrý
- Department of Botany and Zoology Faculty of Science, Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic
| | - Jiři Doležal
- Institute of Botany The Czech Academy of Sciences Třeboň Czech Republic
- Faculty of Science University of South Bohemia České Budějovice Czech Republic
| | - Veronika Jandová
- Institute of Botany The Czech Academy of Sciences Třeboň Czech Republic
- Faculty of Science University of South Bohemia České Budějovice Czech Republic
| | - Jan Altman
- Institute of Botany The Czech Academy of Sciences Třeboň Czech Republic
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic
| | - Jitka Klimešová
- Institute of Botany The Czech Academy of Sciences Třeboň Czech Republic
- Department of Botany Charles University Prague Faculty of Science, Charles University Prague Czech Republic
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Chardon NI, Nabe‐Nielsen J, Assmann JJ, Dyrholm Jacobsen IB, Guéguen M, Normand S, Wipf S. High resolution species distribution and abundance models cannot predict separate shrub datasets in adjacent Arctic fjords. DIVERS DISTRIB 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Nathalie Isabelle Chardon
- Biodiversity Research Centre University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research Davos Dorf Switzerland
- Department of Biology Aarhus University Aarhus C Denmark
| | | | | | | | - Maya Guéguen
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc CNRS, LECA Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine Grenoble France
| | - Signe Normand
- Department of Biology Aarhus University Aarhus C Denmark
| | - Sonja Wipf
- Swiss National Park Chastè Planta‐Wildenberg Zernez Switzerland
- Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Centre CERC Davos Dorf Switzerland
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10
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Chevalier M, Tedesco P, Grenouillet G. Spatial patterns in the contribution of biotic and abiotic factors to the population dynamics of three freshwater fish species. PeerJ 2022; 10:e12857. [PMID: 35228906 PMCID: PMC8881916 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.12857] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2021] [Accepted: 01/09/2022] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population dynamics are driven by a number of biotic (e.g., density-dependence) and abiotic (e.g., climate) factors whose contribution can greatly vary across study systems (i.e., populations). Yet, the extent to which the contribution of these factors varies across populations and between species and whether spatial patterns can be identified has received little attention. METHODS Here, we used a long-term (1982-2011), broad scale (182 sites distributed across metropolitan France) dataset to study spatial patterns in the population's dynamics of three freshwater fish species presenting contrasted life-histories and patterns of elevation range shifts in recent decades. We used a hierarchical Bayesian approach together with an elasticity analysis to estimate the relative contribution of a set of biotic (e.g., strength of density dependence, recruitment rate) and abiotic (mean and variability of water temperature) factors affecting the site-specific dynamic of two different size classes (0+ and >0+ individuals) for the three species. We then tested whether the local contribution of each factor presented evidence for biogeographical patterns by confronting two non-mutually exclusive hypotheses: the "range-shift" hypothesis that predicts a gradient along elevation or latitude and the "abundant-center" hypothesis that predicts a gradient from the center to the edge of the species' distributional range. RESULTS Despite contrasted life-histories, the three species displayed similar large-scale patterns in population dynamics with a much stronger contribution of biotic factors over abiotic ones. Yet, the contribution of the different factors strongly varied within distributional ranges and followed distinct spatial patterns. Indeed, while abiotic factors mostly varied along elevation, biotic factors-which disproportionately contributed to population dynamics-varied along both elevation and latitude. CONCLUSIONS Overall while our results provide stronger support for the range-shift hypothesis, they also highlight the dual effect of distinct factors on spatial patterns in population dynamics and can explain the overall difficulty to find general evidence for geographic gradients in natural populations. We propose that considering the separate contribution of the factors affecting population dynamics could help better understand the drivers of abundance-distribution patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathieu Chevalier
- Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO, Laboratoire d’Ecologie Benthique Côtière (LEBCO), IFREMER, Plouzané, France
| | - Pablo Tedesco
- Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique (EDB), CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
| | - Gael Grenouillet
- Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique (EDB), CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
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11
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Estarague A, Vasseur F, Sartori K, Bastias CC, Cornet D, Rouan L, Beurier G, Exposito-Alonso M, Herbette S, Bresson J, Vile D, Violle C. Into the range: a latitudinal gradient or a center-margins differentiation of ecological strategies in Arabidopsis thaliana? ANNALS OF BOTANY 2022; 129:343-356. [PMID: 34918027 PMCID: PMC8835660 DOI: 10.1093/aob/mcab149] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2021] [Revised: 12/07/2021] [Accepted: 12/14/2021] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Determining within-species large-scale variation in phenotypic traits is central to elucidate the drivers of species' ranges. Intraspecific comparisons offer the opportunity to understand how trade-offs and biogeographical history constrain adaptation to contrasted environmental conditions. Here we test whether functional traits, ecological strategies from the CSR scheme and phenotypic plasticity in response to abiotic stress vary along a latitudinal or a center- margins gradient within the native range of Arabidopsis thaliana. METHODS We experimentally examined the phenotypic outcomes of plant adaptation at the center and margins of its geographic range using 30 accessions from southern, central and northern Europe. We characterized the variation of traits related to stress tolerance, resource use, colonization ability, CSR strategy scores, survival and fecundity in response to high temperature (34 °C) or frost (- 6 °C), combined with a water deficit treatment. KEY RESULTS We found evidence for both a latitudinal and a center-margins differentiation for the traits under scrutiny. Age at maturity, leaf dry matter content, specific leaf area and leaf nitrogen content varied along a latitudinal gradient. Northern accessions presented a greater survival to stress than central and southern accessions. Leaf area, C-scores, R-scores and fruit number followed a center-margins differentiation. Central accessions displayed a higher phenotypic plasticity than northern and southern accessions for most studied traits. CONCLUSIONS Traits related to an acquisitive/conservative resource-use trade-off followed a latitudinal gradient. Traits associated with a competition/colonization trade-off differentiated along the historic colonization of the distribution range and then followed a center-margins differentiation. Our findings pinpoint the need to consider the joint effect of evolutionary history and environmental factors when examining phenotypic variation across the distribution range of a species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aurélien Estarague
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, F-34293, Montpellier, France
- Laboratoire d’Ecophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress Environnementaux (LEPSE), INRAE, Montpellier SupAgro, UMR759, F-34060, Montpellier, France
| | - François Vasseur
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, F-34293, Montpellier, France
| | - Kevin Sartori
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, F-34293, Montpellier, France
- Department of Plant Biology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | | | - Denis Cornet
- CIRAD, UMR AGAP Institut, F-34398, Montpellier, France
- UMR AGAP Institut, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, F-34398, Montpellier, France
| | - Lauriane Rouan
- CIRAD, UMR AGAP Institut, F-34398, Montpellier, France
- UMR AGAP Institut, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, F-34398, Montpellier, France
| | - Gregory Beurier
- CIRAD, UMR AGAP Institut, F-34398, Montpellier, France
- UMR AGAP Institut, Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, F-34398, Montpellier, France
| | - Moises Exposito-Alonso
- Department of Plant Biology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | | | - Justine Bresson
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, F-34293, Montpellier, France
| | - Denis Vile
- Laboratoire d’Ecophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress Environnementaux (LEPSE), INRAE, Montpellier SupAgro, UMR759, F-34060, Montpellier, France
| | - Cyrille Violle
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, F-34293, Montpellier, France
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12
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Buckley YM, Puy J. The macroecology of plant populations from local to global scales. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2022; 233:1038-1050. [PMID: 34536970 DOI: 10.1111/nph.17749] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2020] [Accepted: 09/02/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Population ecologists develop theoretical and pragmatic knowledge of how and why populations change or remain stable, how life histories evolve and devise management strategies for populations of concern. However, forecasting the effects of global change or recommending management strategies is often urgent, requiring ecologists to work without detailed local evidence while using data and models from outside the focal location or species. Here we explore how the comparative ecology of populations, population macroecology, can be used to develop generalisations within and between species across different scales, using available demographic, environmental, life history, occurrence and trait data. We outline the strengths and weaknesses of using broad climatic variables and suitability inferred from probability of occupancy models to represent environmental variation in comparative analyses. We evaluate the contributions of traits, environment and their interaction as drivers of life history strategy. We propose that insights from life history theory, together with the adaptive capacity of populations and individuals, can inform on 'persist in place' vs 'shift in space' responses to changing conditions. As demographic data accumulate at landscape and regional scales for single species, and throughout plant phylogenies, we will have new opportunities for testing macroecological generalities within and across species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yvonne M Buckley
- School of Natural Sciences, Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, 4072, QLD, Australia
| | - Javier Puy
- School of Natural Sciences, Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland
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13
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Berio Fortini L, Krushelnycky PD, Drake DR, Starr F, Starr K, Chimera CG. Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant. Glob Ecol Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
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14
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Broennimann O, Petitpierre B, Chevalier M, González-Suárez M, Jeschke JM, Rolland J, Gray SM, Bacher S, Guisan A. Distance to native climatic niche margins explains establishment success of alien mammals. Nat Commun 2021; 12:2353. [PMID: 33883555 PMCID: PMC8060396 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22693-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2020] [Accepted: 03/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
One key hypothesis explaining the fate of exotic species introductions posits that the establishment of a self-sustaining population in the invaded range can only succeed within conditions matching the native climatic niche. Yet, this hypothesis remains untested for individual release events. Using a dataset of 979 introductions of 173 mammal species worldwide, we show that climate-matching to the realized native climatic niche, measured by a new Niche Margin Index (NMI), is a stronger predictor of establishment success than most previously tested life-history attributes and historical factors. Contrary to traditional climatic suitability metrics derived from species distribution models, NMI is based on niche margins and provides a measure of how distant a site is inside or, importantly, outside the niche. Besides many applications in research in ecology and evolution, NMI as a measure of native climatic niche-matching in risk assessments could improve efforts to prevent invasions and avoid costly eradications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olivier Broennimann
- Department of Ecology & Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
- Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
| | - Blaise Petitpierre
- Department of Ecology & Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Mathieu Chevalier
- Department of Ecology & Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Manuela González-Suárez
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Jonathan M Jeschke
- Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin, Germany
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Jonathan Rolland
- Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique, CNRS, Bâtiment 4R1, Toulouse, France
- Department of Computational Biology, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Sarah M Gray
- Department of Biology, Unit of Ecology & Evolution, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
| | - Sven Bacher
- Department of Biology, Unit of Ecology & Evolution, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
| | - Antoine Guisan
- Department of Ecology & Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
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15
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Doak DF, Waddle E, Langendorf RE, Louthan AM, Isabelle Chardon N, Dibner RR, Keinath DA, Lombardi E, Steenbock C, Shriver RK, Linares C, Begoña Garcia M, Funk WC, Fitzpatrick SW, Morris WF, DeMarche ML. A critical comparison of integral projection and matrix projection models for demographic analysis. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Ellen Waddle
- Environmental Studies Program and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Ryan E. Langendorf
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Allison M. Louthan
- Division of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan Kansas USA
- KS and Biology Department Duke University Durham North Carolina USA
| | | | - Reilly R. Dibner
- Department of Zoology and Physiology University of Wyoming Laramie Wyoming USA
| | - Douglas A. Keinath
- Department of Zoology and Physiology University of Wyoming Laramie Wyoming USA
- Wyoming Ecological Services Field Office United States Fish and Wildlife Service 5353 Yellowstone Road, Suite 308A Cheyenne Wyoming82009USA
| | - Elizabeth Lombardi
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Cornell University Ithaca New York USA
| | - Christopher Steenbock
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Robert K. Shriver
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada Reno Nevada USA
| | - Cristina Linares
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio) University of Barcelona Avenida Diagonal 643 Barcelona08028Spain
| | - Maria Begoña Garcia
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (CSIC) Avenida Montañana 1005 Zaragoza50059Spain
| | - W. Chris Funk
- Department of Biology Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State University Fort CollinsColorado USA
| | - Sarah W. Fitzpatrick
- W.K. Kellogg Biological Station Michigan State University Hickory Corners Michigan USA
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16
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Logofet DO, Salguero-Gómez R. Novel challenges and opportunities in the theory and practice of matrix population modelling: An editorial for the special feature. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109457] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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17
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Oldfather MF, Koontz MJ, Doak DF, Ackerly DD. Range dynamics mediated by compensatory life stage responses to experimental climate manipulations. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:772-780. [PMID: 33559296 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2020] [Accepted: 01/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
The expectations of polar or upslope distributional shifts of species ranges in response to warming climate conditions have been recently questioned. Diverse responses of different life stages to changing temperature and moisture regimes may alter these predicted range dynamics. Furthermore, the climate driver(s) influencing demographic rates, and the contribution of each demographic rate to population growth rate (λ), may shift across a species range. We investigated these demographic effects by experimentally manipulating climate and measuring responses of λ in nine populations spanning the elevation range of an alpine plant (Ivesia lycopodioides). Populations exhibited stable growth rates (λ ~ 1) under naturally wet conditions and declining rates (λ < 1) under naturally dry conditions. However, opposing vital rate responses to experimental heating and watering lead to negligible or negative effects on population stability. These findings indicate that life stage-specific responses to changing climate can disrupt the current relationships between population stability and climate across species ranges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meagan F Oldfather
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA.,Department of Integrative Biology, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Michael J Koontz
- Earth Lab, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - David D Ackerly
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.,Department of Environmental Science Policy and Management, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.,Jepson Herbarium, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
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18
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Römer G, Christiansen DM, Buhr H, Hylander K, Jones OR, Merinero S, Reitzel K, Ehrlén J, Dahlgren JP. Drivers of large‐scale spatial demographic variation in a perennial plant. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3356] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Gesa Römer
- Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop) University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55 Odense M5230Denmark
- Department of Biology University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55 Odense M5230Denmark
| | - Ditte M. Christiansen
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University StockholmSE‐106 91Sweden
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University StockholmSE‐106 91Sweden
| | - Hendrik Buhr
- Department of Medical Microbiology University Medical Center Utrecht Heidelberglaan 100 Utrecht3584 CXThe Netherlands
| | - Kristoffer Hylander
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University StockholmSE‐106 91Sweden
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University StockholmSE‐106 91Sweden
| | - Owen R. Jones
- Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop) University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55 Odense M5230Denmark
- Department of Biology University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55 Odense M5230Denmark
| | - Sonia Merinero
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University StockholmSE‐106 91Sweden
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University StockholmSE‐106 91Sweden
- Department of Ecology Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences PO Box 7044 UppsalaSE‐750 07Sweden
| | - Kasper Reitzel
- Department of Biology University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55 Odense M5230Denmark
| | - Johan Ehrlén
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University StockholmSE‐106 91Sweden
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University StockholmSE‐106 91Sweden
| | - Johan P. Dahlgren
- Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop) University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55 Odense M5230Denmark
- Department of Biology University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55 Odense M5230Denmark
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19
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Coutts SR, Quintana-Ascencio PF, Menges ES, Salguero-Gómez R, Childs DZ. Fine-scale spatial variation in fitness is comparable to disturbance-induced fluctuations in a fire-adapted species. Ecology 2021; 102:e03287. [PMID: 33480055 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2020] [Revised: 09/17/2020] [Accepted: 10/06/2020] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
The spatial scale at which demographic performance (e.g., net reproductive output) varies can profoundly influence landscape-level population growth and persistence, and many demographically pertinent processes such as species interactions and resource acquisition vary at fine scales. We compared the magnitude of demographic variation associated with fine-scale heterogeneity (<10 m), with variation due to larger-scale (>1 ha) fluctuations associated with fire disturbance. We used a spatially explicit model within an IPM modeling framework to evaluate the demographic importance of fine-scale variation. We used a measure of expected lifetime fruit production, EF , that is assumed to be proportional to lifetime fitness. Demographic differences and their effects on EF were assessed in a population of the herbaceous perennial Hypericum cumulicola (~2,600 individuals), within a patch of Florida rosemary scrub (400 × 80 m). We compared demographic variation over fine spatial scales to demographic variation between years across 6 yr after a fire. Values of EF changed by orders of magnitude over <10 m. This variation in fitness over fine spatial scales (<10 m) is commensurate to postfire changes in fitness for this fire-adapted perennial. A life table response experiment indicated that fine-scale spatial variation in vital rates, especially survival, explains as much change in EF as demographic changes caused by time-since-fire, a key driver in this system. Our findings show that environmental changes over a few tens of meters can have ecologically meaningful implications for population growth and extinction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shaun R Coutts
- Lincoln Institute of Agri-Food Technology, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK.,Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Pedro F Quintana-Ascencio
- Department of Biology, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, USA.,Plant Ecology Program, Archbold Biological Station, Venus, Florida, USA
| | - Eric S Menges
- Plant Ecology Program, Archbold Biological Station, Venus, Florida, USA
| | - Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- Evolutionary Demography Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, DE-18057, Germany.,Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,Centre of Excellence in Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Dylan Z Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
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20
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Perez‐Navarro MA, Broennimann O, Esteve MA, Moya‐Perez JM, Carreño MF, Guisan A, Lloret F. Temporal variability is key to modelling the climatic niche. DIVERS DISTRIB 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13207] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Olivier Broennimann
- Department of Ecology and Evolution (DEE) University of Lausanne Lausanne Switzerland
| | | | | | | | - Antoine Guisan
- Department of Ecology and Evolution (DEE) University of Lausanne Lausanne Switzerland
| | - Francisco Lloret
- CREAF Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès) Spain
- Ecology Unit University Autonomous of BarcelonaBellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès) Catalonia Spain
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21
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Bellis J, Bourke D, Maschinski J, Heineman K, Dalrymple S. Climate suitability as a predictor of conservation translocation failure. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2020; 34:1473-1481. [PMID: 32304113 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2019] [Revised: 04/03/2020] [Accepted: 04/10/2020] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
The continuing decline and loss of biodiversity has caused an increase in the use of interventionist conservation tools, such as translocation. However, many translocation attempts fail to establish viable populations, with poor release site selection often flagged as an inhibitor of success. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the climate suitability of 102 release sites for amphibians, reptiles, and terrestrial insects and compared suitability predictions between successful and failed attempts. We then quantified the importance of climate suitability relative to 5 other variables frequently considered in the literature as important determinants of translocation success: number of release years, number of individuals released, life stage released, origin of the source population, and position of the release site relative to the species' range. Probability of translocation success increased as predicted climate suitability increased and this effect was the strongest among the variables we considered, accounting for 48.3% of the variation in translocation outcome. These findings should encourage greater consideration of climate suitability when selecting release sites for conservation translocations and we advocate the use of SDMs as an effective way to do this.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joe Bellis
- School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Liverpool John Moores University, James Parsons Building, Byrom Street, Liverpool, L3 3AF, U.K
| | - David Bourke
- School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Liverpool John Moores University, James Parsons Building, Byrom Street, Liverpool, L3 3AF, U.K
| | - Joyce Maschinski
- San Diego Zoo Global and Center for Plant Conservation, 15600 San Pasqual Valley Road, Escondido, CA, 92027, U.S.A
| | - Katie Heineman
- San Diego Zoo Global and Center for Plant Conservation, 15600 San Pasqual Valley Road, Escondido, CA, 92027, U.S.A
| | - Sarah Dalrymple
- School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Liverpool John Moores University, James Parsons Building, Byrom Street, Liverpool, L3 3AF, U.K
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22
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Domínguez Lozano F, Zurdo Jorda J, Sánchez de Dios R. The role of demography and grazing in the patterns of endangerment of threatened plants. Glob Ecol Conserv 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01151] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
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23
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Baer KC, Maron JL. Ecological niche models display nonlinear relationships with abundance and demographic performance across the latitudinal distribution of Astragalus utahensis (Fabaceae). Ecol Evol 2020; 10:8251-8264. [PMID: 32788976 PMCID: PMC7417238 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6532] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2020] [Revised: 05/26/2020] [Accepted: 05/27/2020] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
The potential for ecological niche models (ENMs) to accurately predict species' abundance and demographic performance throughout their geographic distributions remains a topic of substantial debate in ecology and biogeography. Few studies simultaneously examine the relationship between ENM predictions of environmental suitability and both a species' abundance and its demographic performance, particularly across its entire geographic distribution. Yet, studies of this type are essential for understanding the extent to which ENMs are a viable tool for identifying areas that may promote high abundance or performance of a species or how species might respond to future climate conditions. In this study, we used an ensemble ecological niche model to predict climatic suitability for the perennial forb Astragalus utahensis across its geographic distribution. We then examined relationships between projected climatic suitability and field-based measures of abundance, demographic performance, and forecasted stochastic population growth (λs). Predicted climatic suitability showed a J-shaped relationship with A. utahensis abundance, where low-abundance populations were associated with low-to-intermediate suitability scores and abundance increased sharply in areas of high predicted climatic suitability. A similar relationship existed between climatic suitability and λs from the center to the northern edge of the latitudinal distribution. Patterns such as these, where density or demographic performance only increases appreciably beyond some threshold of climatic suitability, support the contention that ENM-predicted climatic suitability does not necessarily represent a reliable predictor of abundance or performance across large geographic regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathryn C. Baer
- Anchorage Forestry Sciences LaboratoryUSDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research StationAnchorageAKUSA
| | - John L. Maron
- Department of Biological SciencesUniversity of MontanaMissoulaMTUSA
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24
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Towards a Comparative Framework of Demographic Resilience. Trends Ecol Evol 2020; 35:776-786. [PMID: 32482368 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.05.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2019] [Revised: 04/28/2020] [Accepted: 05/01/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
In the current global biodiversity crisis, the development of tools to define, quantify, compare, and predict resilience is essential for understanding the responses of species to global change. However, disparate interpretations of resilience have hampered the development of a common currency to quantify and compare resilience across natural systems. Most resilience frameworks focus on upper levels of biological organization, especially ecosystems or communities, which complicates measurements of resilience using empirical data. Surprisingly, there is no quantifiable definition of resilience at the demographic level. We introduce a framework of demographic resilience that draws on existing concepts from community and population ecology, as well as an accompanying set of metrics that are comparable across species.
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25
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Al Borki AES, Alzerbi AK, Kabiel HF, Hegazy AK. ‘Variations in phenological and functional traits in
Thapsia garganica
populations in Al Jebel Al Akhdar, Libya’. Afr J Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/aje.12734] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Hanan F. Kabiel
- Department of Botany and Microbiology Faculty of Science Cairo University Giza Egypt
| | - Ahmad K. Hegazy
- Department of Botany and Microbiology Faculty of Science Cairo University Giza Egypt
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26
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Osorio-Olvera L, Yañez-Arenas C, Martínez-Meyer E, Peterson AT. Relationships between population densities and niche-centroid distances in North American birds. Ecol Lett 2020; 23:555-564. [PMID: 31944513 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13453] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2019] [Revised: 10/15/2019] [Accepted: 11/07/2019] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
Correlational ecological niche models have seen intensive use and exploration as a means of estimating the limits of actual and potential geographic distributions of species, yet their application to explaining geographic abundance patterns has been debated. We developed a detailed test of this latter possibility based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Correlations between abundances and niche-centroid distances were mostly negative, as per expectations of niche theory and the abundant niche-centre relationship. The negative relationships were not distributed randomly among species: terrestrial, non-migratory, small-bodied, small-niche-breadth and restricted-range species had the strongest negative associations. Distances to niche centroids as estimated from correlational analyses of presence-only data thus offer a unique means by which to infer geographic abundance patterns, which otherwise are enormously difficult to characterise.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luis Osorio-Olvera
- Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, 04510, Mexico.,Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, 66045, Mexico
| | - Carlos Yañez-Arenas
- Laboratorio de Ecología Geográfica, Unidad de Biología de la Conservación, Parque Científico Tecnológico de Yucatán, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Mérida, 97302, Merida, Mexico
| | - Enrique Martínez-Meyer
- Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, 04510, Mexico.,Centro del Cambio Global y la Sustentabilidad, A.C, Villahermosa, Mexico, 86080, Mexico
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27
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Augustinus B, Sun Y, Beuchat C, Schaffner U, Müller-Schärer H. Predicting impact of a biocontrol agent: integrating distribution modeling with climate-dependent vital rates. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2020; 30:e02003. [PMID: 31519029 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2019] [Revised: 06/28/2019] [Accepted: 07/30/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Species distribution models can predict the suitable climatic range of a potential biological control agent (BCA), but they provide little information on the BCA's potential impact. To predict high population buildup, a prerequisite of biocontrol impact, studies are needed that assess the effect of environmental factors on vital rates of a BCA across the environmental gradient of the BCA's suitable habitats, especially for the region where the BCA is considered for field release. We extended a published species distribution model with climate-dependent vital rates of Ophraella communa, a recently and accidentally introduced potential BCA of common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Europe. In field and laboratory experiments, we collected data on climate-dependent parameters assumed to be the most relevant for the population buildup of O. communa, i.e., temperature driving the number of generations per year and relative humidity (RH) determining egg hatching success. We found that O. communa concluded one generation in 334 cumulative degree days, and that egg hatching success strongly decreased from > 80% to < 20% when RH drops from 55% to 45% during the day. We used these values to spatially explicitly project population densities across the European range suitable for both A. artemisiifolia and the beetle and found that the present distribution of the beetle in Europe is within the range with the highest projected population growth. The highest population density of O. communa was predicted for northern Italy and parts of western Russia and western Georgia. Field observations of high impact on A. artemisiifolia with records of 80% aerial pollen reduction in the Milano area since the establishment of O. communa are in line with these predictions. The relative importance of temperature and RH on the population density of O. communa varies considerably across its suitable range in Europe. We propose that the combined statistical and mechanistic approach outlined in this paper helps to more accurately predict the potential impact of a weed BCA than a species distribution model alone. Identifying the factors limiting the population buildup of a BCA across the suitable range allows implementation of more targeted release and management strategies to optimize biocontrol efficacy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benno Augustinus
- CABI, Delémont, 2800, Switzerland
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, 1700, Switzerland
| | - Yan Sun
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, 1700, Switzerland
| | - Carine Beuchat
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, 1700, Switzerland
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28
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Bohner T, Diez J. Extensive mismatches between species distributions and performance and their relationship to functional traits. Ecol Lett 2019; 23:33-44. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.13396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2019] [Revised: 08/28/2019] [Accepted: 09/01/2019] [Indexed: 01/10/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Teresa Bohner
- Department of Botany and Plant Sciences University of California Riverside CA 92521USA
| | - Jeffrey Diez
- Department of Botany and Plant Sciences University of California Riverside CA 92521USA
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29
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Shary PA, Sharaya LS, Ivanova AV, Kostina NV, Rosenberg GS. Comparative Analysis of the Species Richness of Life Forms of Vascular Plants in the Middle Volga. CONTEMP PROBL ECOL+ 2019. [DOI: 10.1134/s1995425519040103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
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30
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Briscoe NJ, Elith J, Salguero-Gómez R, Lahoz-Monfort JJ, Camac JS, Giljohann KM, Holden MH, Hradsky BA, Kearney MR, McMahon SM, Phillips BL, Regan TJ, Rhodes JR, Vesk PA, Wintle BA, Yen JDL, Guillera-Arroita G. Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications. Ecol Lett 2019; 22:1940-1956. [PMID: 31359571 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13348] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2018] [Revised: 01/14/2019] [Accepted: 06/20/2019] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process-explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process-explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs - regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species - we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process-explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie J Briscoe
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Jane Elith
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.,Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
| | | | - James S Camac
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | | | - Matthew H Holden
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Bronwyn A Hradsky
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Michael R Kearney
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Sean M McMahon
- Forest Global Earth Observatory, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD, USA
| | - Ben L Phillips
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Tracey J Regan
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia.,The Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Heidelberg, Vic., Australia
| | - Jonathan R Rhodes
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Peter A Vesk
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Brendan A Wintle
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
| | - Jian D L Yen
- School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
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31
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Sharyi PA, Ivanova AV, Sharaya LS, Kostina NV. The Influence of the Intra-annual Distribution of Climate Characteristics on the Diversity of Vascular Plants in the Middle Volga Region. RUSS J ECOL+ 2019. [DOI: 10.1134/s1067413619010089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
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32
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Magadzire N, Klerk HM, Esler KJ, Slingsby JA. Fire and life history affect the distribution of plant species in a biodiversity hotspot. DIVERS DISTRIB 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12921] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Nyasha Magadzire
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies Stellenbosch University Matieland South Africa
| | - Helen M. Klerk
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies Stellenbosch University Matieland South Africa
| | - Karen J. Esler
- Department of Conservation Ecology and Entomology and Centre for Invasion Biology Stellenbosch University Matieland South Africa
| | - Jasper A. Slingsby
- Fynbos Node, South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON) Centre for Biodiversity Conservation Cape Town South Africa
- Department of Biological Sciences, Centre for Statistics in Ecology, Environment and Conservation University of Cape Town Rondebosch South Africa
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33
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Oldfather MF, Ackerly DD. Microclimate and demography interact to shape stable population dynamics across the range of an alpine plant. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2019; 222:193-205. [PMID: 30372539 DOI: 10.1111/nph.15565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2018] [Accepted: 10/20/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Heterogeneous terrain in montane systems results in a decoupling of climatic gradients. Population dynamics across species' ranges in these heterogeneous landscapes are shaped by relationships between demographic rates and these interwoven climate gradients. Linking demography and climate variables across species' ranges refines our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of species' current and future ranges. We explored the importance of multiple microclimatic gradients in shaping individual demographic rates and population growth rates in 16 populations across the elevational distribution of an alpine plant (Ivesia lycopodioides var. scandularis). Using integral projection modeling, we ask how each rate varies across three microclimate gradients: accumulated degree-days, growing-season soil moisture, and days of snow cover. Range-wide variation in demographic rates was best explained by the combined influence of multiple microclimatic variables. Different pairs of demographic rates exhibited both similar and inverse responses to the same microclimatic gradient, and the microclimatic effects often varied with plant size. These responses resulted in range-wide projected population persistence, with no declining populations at either elevational range edge or at the extremes of the microclimate gradients. The complex relationships between topography, microclimate and demography suggest that populations across a species' range may have unique demographic pathways to stable population dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meagan F Oldfather
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - David D Ackerly
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
- Jepson Herbarium, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
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34
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Using MaxEnt modeling to predict the potential distribution of the endemic plant Rosa arabica Crép. in Egypt. ECOL INFORM 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2019.01.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 88] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
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35
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Iles DT, Rockwell RF, Koons DN. Shifting Vital Rate Correlations Alter Predicted Population Responses to Increasingly Variable Environments. Am Nat 2019; 193:E57-E64. [PMID: 30794453 DOI: 10.1086/701043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
Time series of vital rates are often used to construct "environment-blind" stochastic population projections and calculate the elasticity of population growth to increased temporal variance in vital rates. Here, we show that the utility of this widely used demographic tool is greatly limited by shifts in vital rate correlations that occur as environmental drivers become increasingly variable. The direction and magnitude of these shifts are unpredictable without environmentally explicit models. Shifting vital rate correlations had the largest fitness effects on life histories with short to medium generation times, potentially hampering comparative analyses based on elasticities to vital rate variance for a wide range of species. Shifts in vital rate correlations are likely ubiquitous in increasingly variable environments, and further research should empirically evaluate the life histories for which detailed mechanistic relationships between vital rates and environmental drivers are required for making reliable predictions versus those for which summarized demographic data are sufficient.
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36
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Braz AG, Lorini ML, Vale MM. Climate change is likely to affect the distribution but not parapatry of the Brazilian marmoset monkeys (
Callithrix
spp.). DIVERS DISTRIB 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12872] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Alan Gerhardt Braz
- Department of Ecology Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro Brazil
| | - Maria Lucia Lorini
- Department of Natural Sciences Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro Brazil
| | - Mariana Moncassim Vale
- Department of Ecology Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro Brazil
- Brazilian Research Network on Global Climate Change (Rede Clima) São José dos Campos Brazil
- Laboratorio Internacional de Cambio Global (LINC‐Global) Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) Madrid Spain
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37
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Cenci S, Song C, Saavedra S. Rethinking the importance of the structure of ecological networks under an environment-dependent framework. Ecol Evol 2018; 8:6852-6859. [PMID: 30073049 PMCID: PMC6065350 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4252] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2017] [Revised: 02/21/2018] [Accepted: 04/24/2018] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
A major quest in network and community ecology has been centered on understanding the importance of structural patterns in species interaction networks-the synthesis of who interacts with whom in a given location and time. In the past decades, much effort has been devoted to infer the importance of a particular structure by its capacity to tolerate an external perturbation on its structure or dynamics. Here, we demonstrate that such a perspective leads to inconsistent conclusions. That is, the importance of a network structure changes as a function of the external perturbations acting on a community at any given point in time. Thus, we discuss a research agenda to investigate the relative importance of the structure of ecological networks under an environment-dependent framework. We hypothesize that only by studying systematically the link between network structure and community dynamics under an environment-dependent framework, we can uncover the limits at which communities can tolerate environmental changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simone Cenci
- Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringMITCambridgeMassachusetts
| | - Chuliang Song
- Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringMITCambridgeMassachusetts
| | - Serguei Saavedra
- Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringMITCambridgeMassachusetts
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38
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Climatic Suitability Derived from Species Distribution Models Captures Community Responses to an Extreme Drought Episode. Ecosystems 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-018-0254-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
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39
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Fordham DA, Bertelsmeier C, Brook BW, Early R, Neto D, Brown SC, Ollier S, Araújo MB. How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:1357-1370. [PMID: 29152817 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13935] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2016] [Accepted: 09/14/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Criticism has been levelled at climate-change-induced forecasts of species range shifts that do not account explicitly for complex population dynamics. The relative importance of such dynamics under climate change is, however, undetermined because direct tests comparing the performance of demographic models vs. simpler ecological niche models are still lacking owing to difficulties in evaluating forecasts using real-world data. We provide the first comparison of the skill of coupled ecological-niche-population models and ecological niche models in predicting documented shifts in the ranges of 20 British breeding bird species across a 40-year period. Forecasts from models calibrated with data centred on 1970 were evaluated using data centred on 2010. We found that more complex coupled ecological-niche-population models (that account for dispersal and metapopulation dynamics) tend to have higher predictive accuracy in forecasting species range shifts than structurally simpler models that only account for variation in climate. However, these better forecasts are achieved only if ecological responses to climate change are simulated without static snapshots of historic land use, taken at a single point in time. In contrast, including both static land use and dynamic climate variables in simpler ecological niche models improve forecasts of observed range shifts. Despite being less skilful at predicting range changes at the grid-cell level, ecological niche models do as well, or better, than more complex models at predicting the magnitude of relative change in range size. Therefore, ecological niche models can provide a reasonable first approximation of the magnitude of species' potential range shifts, especially when more detailed data are lacking on dispersal dynamics, demographic processes underpinning population performance, and change in land cover.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damien A Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Cleo Bertelsmeier
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
- Department of Ecology & Evolution, Univ. Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | - Regan Early
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Dora Neto
- InBio/CIBIO, University of Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, Évora, Portugal
| | - Stuart C Brown
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | | | - Miguel B Araújo
- InBio/CIBIO, University of Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, Évora, Portugal
- National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, Madrid, Spain
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
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