Long-term change in the avifauna of undisturbed Amazonian rainforest: ground-foraging birds disappear and the baseline shifts

Interspecific competition shapes bird species' distributions along tropical precipitation gradients

The hypothesis that species' ranges are limited by interspecific competition has motivated decades of debate, but a general answer remains elusive. Here we test this hypothesis for lowland tropical birds by examining species' precipitation niche breadths. We focus on precipitation because it-not temperature-is the dominant climate variable that shapes the biota of the lowland tropics. We used 3.6 million fine-scale citizen science records from eBird to measure species' precipitation niche breadths in 19 different regions across the globe. Consistent with the predictions of the interspecific competition hypothesis, multiple lines of evidence show that species have narrower precipitation niches in regions with more species. This means species inhabit more specialized precipitation niches in species-rich regions. We predict this niche specialization should make tropical species in high diversity regions disproportionately vulnerable to changes in precipitation regimes; preliminary empirical evidence is consistent with this prediction.

Thresholds for adding degraded tropical forest to the conservation estate

Logged and disturbed forests are often viewed as degraded and depauperate environments compared with primary forest. However, they are dynamic ecosystems1 that provide refugia for large amounts of biodiversity2,3, so we cannot afford to underestimate their conservation value4. Here we present empirically defined thresholds for categorizing the conservation value of logged forests, using one of the most comprehensive assessments of taxon responses to habitat degradation in any tropical forest environment. We analysed the impact of logging intensity on the individual occurrence patterns of 1,681 taxa belonging to 86 taxonomic orders and 126 functional groups in Sabah, Malaysia. Our results demonstrate the existence of two conservation-relevant thresholds. First, lightly logged forests (<29% biomass removal) retain high conservation value and a largely intact functional composition, and are therefore likely to recover their pre-logging values if allowed to undergo natural regeneration. Second, the most extreme impacts occur in heavily degraded forests with more than two-thirds (>68%) of their biomass removed, and these are likely to require more expensive measures to recover their biodiversity value. Overall, our data confirm that primary forests are irreplaceable5, but they also reinforce the message that logged forests retain considerable conservation value that should not be overlooked.

Patterns and processes underlying understory songbird communities in southern China

Understory bird communities, especially those comprising insectivores, are highly sensitive to forest loss and fragmentation. Currently, there is little knowledge regarding the large-scale diversity patterns of understory bird communities, particularly in Eastern Asia. Consequently, we aimed to identify the distribution patterns of understory birds in southern China and the factors underlying these patterns. We analysed the diversity distribution patterns of taxonomic and functional α and β diversity for understory Passeriformes birds in southern China utilising cluster and ordination analyses. Subsequently, we analysed the effects of geographic distance, annual mean temperature, annual temperature range, annual mean precipitation, and annual precipitation range on diversity distribution patterns. In total, 9282 individuals belonging to 11 orders, 48 families, and 297 species were captured over 98,544 net hours, with Alcippeidae being the most abundant family in southern China. The understory bird communities of the 25 sites were categorised into six sub-regions of the Oriental Realm (Indo-Malayan Realm). The pattern in the distribution of taxonomic and functional β-diversity of understory birds in southern China was consistent with zoogeographical regionalisation. Three distinct geographical groups were identified: Group 1 was located in the Min-Guang Coast and Hainan sub-regions; Group 2 was located in the East Hilly Plain, Southwest Mountains, and Western Mountains and Plateaus sub-regions; and Group 3 was located in the Southern Yunnan Mountain subregion. The most critical factors related to the distribution patterns of β-diversity were geographical distance, annual mean temperature, and annual temperature range. Our results showed that the understory bird communities of the Southwest Mountain, East Hilly Plain, and Western Mountains, and Plateaus sub-regions were similar, as were those of the Min-Guang Coast and Hainan sub-regions. Our results underscore the joint roles of distance, temperature, and historical evolution in understory bird communities.

Habitat use of Amazonian birds varies by age and foraging guild along a disturbance gradient

Patterns of habitat use directly influence a species' fitness, yet for many species an individual's age can influence patterns of habitat use. However, in tropical rainforests, which host the greatest terrestrial species diversity, little is known about how age classes of different species use different adjacent habitats of varying quality. We use long-term mist net data from the Amazon rainforest to assess patterns of habitat use among adult, adolescent (teenage) and young understory birds in forest fragments, primary and secondary forest at the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project in Brazil. Insectivore adults were most common in primary forest, adolescents were equally likely in primary and secondary forest, and all ages were the least common in forest fragments. In contrast to insectivores, frugivores and omnivores showed no differences among all three habitat types. Our results illustrate potential ideal despotic distributions among breeding populations of some guilds of understory birds where adult insectivores may competitively exclude adolescent individuals from primary forest. Secondary forest recovery appears to hold promise as a breeding habitat for frugivore and omnivore species but only as a pre-breeding habitat for insectivores, but as the forest ages, the demographic structure of bird populations should match that of primary forest.

Equivocal support for the climate variability hypothesis within a Neotropical bird assemblage

The climate variability hypothesis posits that an organism's exposure to temperature variability determines the breadth of its thermal tolerance and has become an important framework for understanding variation in species' susceptibilities to climate change. For example, ectotherms from more thermally stable environments tend to have narrower thermal tolerances and greater sensitivity to projected climate warming. Among endotherms, however, the relationship between climate variability and thermal physiology is less clear, particularly with regard to microclimate variation-small-scale differences within or between habitats. To address this gap, we explored associations between two sources of temperature variation (habitat type and vertical forest stratum) and (1) thermal physiological traits and (2) temperature sensitivity metrics within a diverse assemblage of Neotropical birds (n = 89 species). We used long-term temperature data to establish that daily temperature regimes in open habitats and forest canopy were both hotter and more variable than those in the forest interior and forest understory, respectively. Despite these differences in temperature regime, however, we found little evidence that species' thermal physiological traits or temperature sensitivity varied in association with either habitat type or vertical stratum. Our findings provide two novel and important insights. First, and in contrast to the supporting empirical evidence from ectotherms, the thermal physiology of birds at our study site appears to be largely decoupled from local temperature variation, providing equivocal support for the climate variability hypothesis in endotherms. Second, we found no evidence that the thermal physiology of understory forest birds differed from that of canopy or open-habitat species-an oft-invoked, yet previously untested, mechanism for why these species are so vulnerable to environmental change.

Mercury in Neotropical birds: a synthesis and prospectus on 13 years of exposure data

Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination of the global tropics outpaces our understanding of its consequences for biodiversity. Knowledge gaps of pollution exposure could obscure conservation threats in the Neotropics: a region that supports over half of the world's species, but faces ongoing land-use change and Hg emission via artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM). Due to their global distribution and sensitivity to pollution, birds provide a valuable opportunity as bioindicators to assess how accelerating Hg emissions impact an ecosystem's ability to support biodiversity, and ultimately, global health. We present the largest database on Neotropical bird Hg concentrations (n = 2316) and establish exposure baselines for 322 bird species spanning nine countries across Central America, South America, and the West Indies. Patterns of avian Hg exposure in the Neotropics broadly align with those in temperate regions: consistent bioaccumulation across functional groups and high spatiotemporal variation. Bird species occupying higher trophic positions and aquatic habitats exhibited elevated Hg concentrations that have been previously associated with reductions in reproductive success. Notably, bird Hg concentrations were over four times higher at sites impacted by ASGM activities and differed by season for certain trophic niches. We developed this synthesis via a collaborative research network, the Tropical Research for Avian Conservation and Ecotoxicology (TRACE) Initiative, which exemplifies inclusive, equitable, and international data-sharing. While our findings signal an urgent need to assess sampling biases, mechanisms, and consequences of Hg exposure to tropical avian communities, the TRACE Initiative provides a meaningful framework to achieve such goals. Ultimately, our collective efforts support and inform local, scientific, and government entities, including Parties of the United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury, as we continue working together to understand how Hg pollution impacts biodiversity conservation, ecosystem function, and public health in the tropics.

Landscape-scale benefits of protected areas for tropical biodiversity

The United Nations recently agreed to major expansions of global protected areas (PAs) to slow biodiversity declines1. However, although reserves often reduce habitat loss, their efficacy at preserving animal diversity and their influence on biodiversity in surrounding unprotected areas remain unclear2-5. Unregulated hunting can empty PAs of large animals6, illegal tree felling can degrade habitat quality7, and parks can simply displace disturbances such as logging and hunting to unprotected areas of the landscape8 (a phenomenon called leakage). Alternatively, well-functioning PAs could enhance animal diversity within reserves as well as in nearby unprotected sites9 (an effect called spillover). Here we test whether PAs across mega-diverse Southeast Asia contribute to vertebrate conservation inside and outside their boundaries. Reserves increased all facets of bird diversity. Large reserves were also associated with substantially enhanced mammal diversity in the adjacent unprotected landscape. Rather than PAs generating leakage that deteriorated ecological conditions elsewhere, our results are consistent with PAs inducing spillover that benefits biodiversity in surrounding areas. These findings support the United Nations goal of achieving 30% PA coverage by 2030 by demonstrating that PAs are associated with higher vertebrate diversity both inside their boundaries and in the broader landscape.

Physiologically vulnerable or resilient? Tropical birds, global warming, and redistributions

Tropical species are considered to be more threatened by climate change than those of other world regions. This increased sensitivity to warming is thought to stem from the assumptions of low physiological capacity to withstand temperature fluctuations and already living near their limits of heat tolerance under current climatic conditions. For birds, despite thorough documentation of community-level rearrangements, such as biotic attrition and elevational shifts, there is no consistent evidence of direct physiological sensitivity to warming. In this review, we provide an integrative outlook into the physiological response of tropical birds to thermal variation and their capacity to cope with warming. In short, evidence from the literature suggests that the assumed physiological sensitivity to warming attributed to tropical biotas does not seem to be a fundamental characteristic of tropical birds. Tropical birds do possess the physiological capacities to deal with fluctuating temperatures, including high-elevation species, and are prepared to withstand elevated levels of heat, even those living in hot and arid environments. However, there are still many unaddressed points that hinder a more complete understanding of the response of tropical birds to warming, such as cooling capacities when exposed to combined gradients of heat and humidity, the response of montane species to heat, and thermoregulation under increased levels of microclimatic stress in disturbed ecosystems. Further research into how populations and species from different ecological contexts handle warming will increase our understanding of current and future community rearrangements in tropical birds.

Reintroduced megaherbivores indirectly shape small-mammal responses to moonlight

Moonlight structures activity patterns of many nocturnal species. Bright moonlight often limits the activity of nocturnal prey, but dense vegetation weakens this effect. Using 8 years of live-trapping data, we asked whether reintroduced megaherbivores (Bison bison) indirectly altered moonlight avoidance by small mammals in tallgrass prairies. In plots with bison, plants intercepted 20% less light, allowing more moonlight to reach ground level. During nights with no moonlight, Peromyscus maniculatus activity was similar in plots with and without bison. During nights with peak moonlight, P. maniculatus activity was four times greater in plots without bison compared to plots with bison. Conversely, Microtus ochrogaster activity was twice as great during full moons compared to new moons, but only in plots with bison. We also equipped a subset of traps with temperature sensors to estimate trap-entry time. Although M. ochrogaster was more active on bright nights, most activity occurred before moonrise or after moonset, avoiding periods of bright moonlight. We conclude that megaherbivores play an unappreciated but important indirect role in tallgrass prairies by inducing behavioral shifts in other animal species. Because overlap in activity patterns can predict the likelihood of predator-prey encounters, such activity shifts have important implications for trophic interactions throughout restored prairie food webs. Additional work to understand interspecific and intraspecific variation in response to moonlight may improve efforts to forecast changes in community assembly due to restoration and land-use change.

The structure and organisation of an Amazonian bird community remains little changed after nearly four decades in Manu National Park

Documenting patterns of spatiotemporal change in hyper-diverse communities remains a challenge for tropical ecology yet is increasingly urgent as some long-term studies have shown major declines in bird communities in undisturbed sites. In 1982, Terborgh et al. quantified the structure and organisation of the bird community in a 97-ha. plot in southeastern Peru. We revisited the same plot in 2018 using the same methodologies as the original study to evaluate community-wide changes. Contrary to longitudinal studies of other neotropical bird communities (Tiputini, Manaus, and Panama), we found little change in community structure and organisation, with increases in 5, decreases in 2 and no change in 7 foraging guilds. This apparent stability suggests that large forest reserves such as the Manu National Park, possibly due to regional topographical influences on precipitation, still provide the conditions for establishing refugia from at least some of the effects of global change on bird communities.

Effects of forest fragmentation on avian breeding activity

Biodiversity declines and ecosystem decay follow forest fragmentation; initially, abundant species may become rare or be extirpated. Underlying mechanisms behind delayed extirpation of certain species following forest fragmentation are unknown. Species declines may be attributed to an inadequate number of breeding adults required to replace the population or decreased juvenile survival rate due to reduced recruitment or increased nest predation pressures. We used 10 years of avian banding data, 5 years before and 4 years after fragment isolation, from the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, carried out near Manaus, Brazil, to investigate the breeding activity hypothesis that there is less breeding activity and fewer young after relative to before fragment isolation. We compared the capture rates of active breeding and young birds in 3 forest types (primary forest, fragment before isolation, and fragment after isolation) and the proportion of active breeding and young birds with all birds in each unique fragment type before and after isolation. We grouped all bird species by diet (insectivore or frugivore) and nesting strategy (open cup, cavity, or enclosed) to allow further comparisons among forest types. We found support for the breeding activity hypothesis in insectivorous and frugivorous birds (effect sizes 0.45 and 0.53, respectively) and in birds with open-cup and enclosed nesting strategies (effect sizes 0.56 and 0.44, respectively) such that on average there were more breeding birds in fragments before isolation relative to after isolation. A larger proportion of birds in the community were actively breeding before fragment isolation (72%) than after fragment isolation (11%). Unexpectedly, there was no significant decrease in the number of young birds after fragment isolation, although sample sizes for young were small (n = 43). This may have been due to sustained immigration of young birds to fragments after isolation. Together, our results provide some of the strongest evidence to date that avian breeding activity decreases in response to fragment isolation, which could be a fundamental mechanism contributing to ecosystem decay.

Wet and dry extremes reduce arthropod biomass independently of leaf phenology in the wet tropics

Warming temperatures are increasing rainfall extremes, yet arthropod responses to climatic fluctuations remain poorly understood. Here, we used spatiotemporal variation in tropical montane climate as a natural experiment to compare the importance of biotic versus abiotic drivers in regulating arthropod biomass. We combined intensive field data on arthropods, leaf phenology and in situ weather across a 1700-3100 m elevation and rainfall gradient, along with desiccation-resistance experiments and multi-decadal modelling. We found limited support for biotic drivers with weak increases in some herbivorous taxa on shrubs with new leaves, but no landscape-scale effects of leaf phenology, which tracked light and cloud cover. Instead, rainfall explained extensive interannual variability with maximum biomass at intermediate rainfall (130 mm month^-1 ) as both 3 months of high and low rainfall reduced arthropods by half. Based on 50 years of regional rainfall, our dynamic arthropod model predicted shifts in the timing of biomass maxima within cloud forests before plant communities transition to seasonally deciduous dry forests (mean annual rainfall 1000-2500 mm vs. <800 mm). Rainfall magnitude was the primary driver, but during high solar insolation, the 'drying power of air' (VPD_max ) reduced biomass within days contributing to drought related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Highlighting risks from drought, experiments demonstrated community-wide susceptibility to desiccation except for some caterpillars in which melanin-based coloration appeared to reduce the effects of evaporative drying. Overall, we provide multiple lines of evidence that several months of heavy rain or drought reduce arthropod biomass independently of deep-rooted plants with the potential to destabilize insectivore food webs.

Range-wide sources of variation in reproductive rates of northern spotted owls

We conducted a range-wide investigation of the dynamics of site-level reproductive rate of northern spotted owls using survey data from 11 study areas across the subspecies geographic range collected during 1993-2018. Our analytical approach accounted for imperfect detection of owl pairs and misclassification of successful reproduction (i.e., at least one young fledged) and contributed further insights into northern spotted owl population ecology and dynamics. Both nondetection and state misclassification were important, especially because factors affecting these sources of error also affected focal ecological parameters. Annual probabilities of site occupancy were greatest at sites with successful reproduction in the previous year and lowest for sites not occupied by a pair in the previous year. Site-specific occupancy transition probabilities declined over time and were negatively affected by barred owl presence. Overall, the site-specific probability of successful reproduction showed substantial year-to-year fluctuations and was similar for occupied sites that did or did not experience successful reproduction the previous year. Site-specific probabilities for successful reproduction were very small for sites that were unoccupied the previous year. Barred owl presence negatively affected the probability of successful reproduction by northern spotted owls in Washington and California, as predicted, but the effect in Oregon was mixed. The proportions of sites occupied by northern spotted owl pairs showed steep, near-monotonic declines over the study period, with all study areas showing the lowest observed levels of occupancy to date. If trends continue it is likely that northern spotted owls will become extirpated throughout large portions of their range in the coming decades.

Long-term changes in avian biomass and functional diversity within disturbed and undisturbed Amazonian rainforest

Recent long-term studies in protected areas have revealed the loss of biodiversity, yet the ramifications for ecosystem health and resilience remain unknown. Here, we investigate how the loss of understory birds, in the lowest stratum of the forest, affects avian biomass and functional diversity in the Amazon rainforest. Across approximately 30 years in the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, we used a historical baseline of avian communities to contrast the avian communities in today's primary forest with those in modern disturbed habitat. We found that in primary rainforest, the reduced abundance of insectivorous species led to reduced functional diversity, but no reduction of biomass, indicating that species with similar functional traits are less likely to coexist in modern primary forests. Because today's forests contain fewer functionally redundant species-those with similar traits-we argue that avian communities in modern primary Amazonian rainforests are less resilient, which may ultimately disrupt the ecosystem in dynamic and unforeseen ways.

Disappearance of an ecosystem engineer, the white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari), leads to density compensation and ecological release

Given the rate of biodiversity loss, there is an urgent need to understand community-level responses to extirpation events, with two prevailing hypotheses. On one hand, the loss of an apex predator leads to an increase in primary prey species, triggering a trophic cascade of other changes within the community, while density compensation and ecological release can occur because of reduced competition for resources and absence of direct aggression. White-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari—WLP), a species that typically co-occurs with collared peccary (Pecari tajacu), undergo major population crashes—often taking 20 to 30-years for populations to recover. Using a temporally replicated camera trapping dataset, in both a pre- and post- WLP crash, we explore how WLP disappearance alters the structure of a Neotropical vertebrate community with findings indicative of density compensation. White-lipped peccary were the most frequently detected terrestrial mammal in the 2006–2007 pre-population crash period but were undetected during the 2019 post-crash survey. Panthera onca (jaguar) camera trap encounter rates declined by 63% following the WLP crash, while collared peccary, puma (Puma concolor), red-brocket deer (Mazama americana) and short-eared dog (Atelocynus microtis) all displayed greater encounter rates (490%, 150%, 280%, and 500% respectively), and increased in rank-abundance. Absence of WLP was correlated with ecological release changes in habitat-use for six species, with the greatest increase in use in the preferred floodplain habitat of the WLP. Surprisingly, community-weighted mean trait distributions (body size, feeding guild and nocturnality) did not change, suggesting functional redundancy in diverse tropical mammal assemblages.

Diet variation in a critically endangered marine predator revealed with stable isotope analysis

Understanding the foraging ecology of animals gives insights into their trophic relationships and habitat use. We used stable isotope analysis to understand the foraging ecology of a critically endangered marine predator, the Māui dolphin. We analysed carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of skin samples (n = 101) collected from 1993 to 2021 to investigate temporal changes in diet and niche space. Genetic monitoring associated each sample with a DNA profile which allowed us to assess individual and population level changes in diet. Potential prey and trophic level indicator samples were also collected (n = 166; 15 species) and incorporated in Bayesian mixing models to estimate importance of prey types to Māui dolphin diet. We found isotopic niche space had decreased over time, particularly since the 2008 implementation of a Marine Mammal Sanctuary. We observed a decreasing trend in ∂¹³C and ∂¹⁵N values, but this was not linear and several fluctuations in isotope values occurred over time. The largest variation in isotope values occurred during an El Niño event, suggesting that prey is influenced by climate-driven oceanographic variables. Mixing models indicated relative importance of prey remained constant since 2008. The isotopic variability observed here is not consistent with individual specialization, rather it occurs at the population level.

Using land-use history and multiple baselines to determine bird responses to cocoa agroforestry

Agroforests can play an important role in biodiversity conservation in complex landscapes. A key factor distinguishing among agroforests is land-use history - whether agroforests are established inside forests or on historically forested but currently open lands. The disparity between land-use histories means the appropriate biodiversity baselines may differ, which should be accounted for when assessing the conservation value of agroforests. Specifically, comparisons between multiple baselines in forest and open land could enrich understanding of species' responses by contextualizing them. We made such comparisons based on data from a recently published meta-analysis of the effects of cocoa (Theobroma cacao) agroforestry on bird diversity. We regrouped rustic, mixed shade cocoa, and low shade cocoa agroforests, based on land-use history, into forest-derived and open-land-derived agroforests and compared bird species diversity (species richness, abundance, and Shannon's index values) between forest and open land, which represented the 2 alternative baselines. Bird diversity was similar in forest-derived agroforests and forests (Hedges' g* estimate [SE] = -0.3144 [0.3416], p = 0.36). Open-land-derived agroforests were significantly less diverse than forests (g* = 1.4312 [0.6308], p = 0.023) and comparable to open lands (g* = -0.1529 [0.5035], p = 0.76). Our results highlight how land-use history determined the conservation value of cocoa agroforests. Forest-derived cocoa agroforests were comparable to the available - usually already degraded - forest baselines, but entail future degradation risks. In contrast, open-land-derived cocoa agroforestry may offer restoration opportunities. Our results showed that comparisons among multiple baselines may inform relative contributions of agroforestry systems to bird conservation on a landscape scale.

The Synergy of Patterns vs. Processes at Community Level: A Key Linkage for Subtropical Native Forests along the Urban Riparian Zone

Riparian zones possesses unique ecological position with biota differing from aquatic body and terrestrial lands, and plant–animal coevolution through a propagule-dispersal process may be the main factor for the framework of riparian vegetation was proposed. In the current study, the riparian forests and avifauna along with three subtropical mountainous riparian belts of Chongqing, China, were investigated, and multivariate analysis technique was adopted to examine the associations among the plants’ and birds’ species. The results show that: (1) the forest species’ composition and vertical layers are dominated by native catkins of Moraceae species, which have the reproductive traits with small and numerous propagules facilitating by frugivorous bird species, revealing an evolutionary trend different from the one in the terrestrial plant climax communities in the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests. The traits may provide a biological base for the plant–bird coevolution; (2) there are significant associations of plant–bird species clusters, i.e., four plant–bird coevolution groups (PBs) were divided out according to the plant species’ dominance and growth form relating to the fruit-dispersing birds’ abundance; (3) the correlation intensity within a PB ranks as PB I > II > IV > III, indicating the PB I is the leading type of coevolution mainly shaped by the dominant plant species of Moraceae; (4) the PB correlation may be a key node between patterns vs. process of a riparian ecosystem responsible for the riparian native vegetation, or even the ecosystem health. Our results contribute understanding the plant–animal coevolution interpreting the forests’ structures in riparian environments. The results may also be used by urban planner and managers to simulate the patterns for restoring a more stable riparian biota, a better functioning ecosystem in subtropical zone.

Long-term monitoring reveals widespread and severe declines of understory birds in a protected Neotropical forest

Long-term studies on the population dynamics of tropical resident birds are few, and it remains poorly understood how their populations have fared in recent decades. Here, we analyzed a 44-y population study of a Neotropical understory bird assemblage from a protected forest reserve in central Panama to determine if and how populations have changed from 1977 to 2020. Using the number of birds captured in mist nets as an index of local abundance, we estimated trends over time for a diverse suite of 57 resident species that comprised a broad range of ecological and behavioral traits. Estimated abundances of 40 (∼70%) species declined over the sampling period, whereas only 2 increased. Furthermore, declines were severe: 35 of the 40 declining species exhibited large proportional losses in estimated abundance, amounting to ≥50% of their initial estimated abundances. Declines were largely independent of ecology (i.e., body mass, foraging guild, or initial abundance) or phylogenetic affiliation. These widespread, severe declines are particularly alarming, given that they occurred in a relatively large (∼22,000-ha) forested area in the absence of local fragmentation or recent land-use change. Our findings provide robust evidence of tropical bird declines in intact forests and bolster a large body of literature from temperate regions suggesting that bird populations may be declining at a global scale. Identifying the ecological mechanisms underlying these declines should be an urgent conservation priority.

Long-term changes in populations of rainforest birds in the Australia Wet Tropics bioregion: A climate-driven biodiversity emergency

Many authors have suggested that the vulnerability of montane biodiversity to climate change worldwide is significantly higher than in most other ecosystems. Despite the extensive variety of studies predicting severe impacts of climate change globally, few studies have empirically validated the predicted changes in distribution and population density. Here, we used 17 years (2000–2016) of standardised bird monitoring across latitudinal/elevational gradients in the rainforest of the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area to assess changes in local abundance and elevational distribution. We used relative abundance in 1977 surveys across 114 sites ranging from 0-1500m above sea level and utilised a trend analysis approach (TRIM) to investigate elevational shifts in abundance of 42 species. The local abundance of most mid and high elevation species has declined at the lower edges of their distribution by >40% while lowland species increased by up to 190% into higher elevation areas. Upland-specialised species and regional endemics have undergone dramatic population declines of almost 50%. The “Outstanding Universal Value” of the Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area, one of the most irreplaceable biodiversity hotspots on Earth, is rapidly degrading. These observed impacts are likely to be similar in many tropical montane ecosystems globally.

Facilitation alters climate change risk on rocky shores

A huge fraction of global biodiversity resides within biogenic habitats that ameliorate physical stresses. In most cases, details of how physical conditions within facilitative habitats respond to external climate forcing remain unknown, hampering climate change predictions for many of the world's species. Using intertidal mussel beds as a model system, we characterize relationships among external climate conditions and within-microhabitat heat and desiccation conditions. We use these data, along with physiological tolerances of two common inhabitant taxa (the isopod Cirolana harfordi and the porcelain crab Petrolisthes cinctipes), to examine the magnitude of climate risk inside and outside biogenic habitat, applying an empirically derived model of evaporation to simulate mortality risk under a high-emissions climate-warming scenario. We found that biogenic microhabitat conditions responded so weakly to external climate parameters that mortality risk was largely unaffected by climate warming. In contrast, outside the biogenic habitat, desiccation drove substantial mortality in both species, even at temperatures 4.4-8.6°C below their hydrated thermal tolerances. These findings emphasize the importance of warming-exacerbated desiccation to climate-change risk and the role of biogenic habitats in buffering this less-appreciated stressor. Our results suggest that, when biogenic habitats remain intact, climate warming may have weak direct effects on organisms within them. Instead, risk to such taxa is likely to be indirect and tightly coupled with the fate of habitat-forming populations. Conserving and restoring biogenic habitats that offer climate refugia could therefore be crucial to supporting biodiversity in the face of climate warming.

Morphological consequences of climate change for resident birds in intact Amazonian rainforest

Warming from climate change is expected to reduce body size of endotherms, but studies from temperate systems have produced equivocal results. Over four decades, we collected morphometric data on a nonmigratory understory bird community within Amazonian primary rainforest that is experiencing increasingly extreme climate. All 77 species showed lower mean mass since the early 1980s—nearly half with 95% confidence. A third of species concomitantly increased wing length, driving a decrease in mass:wing ratio for 69% of species. Seasonal precipitation patterns were generally better than temperature at explaining morphological variation. Short-term climatic conditions affected all metrics, but time trends in wing and mass:wing remained robust even after controlling for annual seasonal conditions. We attribute these results to pressures to increase resource economy under warming. Both seasonal and long-term morphological shifts suggest response to climate change and highlight its pervasive consequences, even in the heart of the world’s largest rainforest.

Big Bird Plots: Benchmarking Neotropical Bird Communities to Address Questions in Ecology and Conservation in an Era of Rapid Change

Extensive networks of large plots have the potential to transform knowledge of avian community dynamics through time and across geographical space. In the Neotropics, the global hotspot of avian diversity, only six 100-ha plots, all located in lowland forests of Amazonia, the Guianan shield and Panama, have been inventoried sufficiently. We review the most important lessons learned about Neotropical forest bird communities from those big bird plots and explore opportunities for creating a more extensive network of additional plots to address questions in ecology and conservation, following the model of the existing ForestGEO network of tree plots. Scholarly impact of the big bird plot papers has been extensive, with the papers accumulating nearly 1,500 citations, particularly on topics of tropical ecology, avian conservation, and community organization. Comparisons of results from the plot surveys show no single methodological scheme works effectively for surveying abundances of all bird species at all sites; multiple approaches have been utilized and must be employed in the future. On the existing plots, abundance patterns varied substantially between the South American plots and the Central American one, suggesting different community structuring mechanisms are at work and that additional sampling across geographic space is needed. Total bird abundance in Panama, dominated by small insectivores, was double that of Amazonia and the Guianan plateau, which were dominated by large granivores and frugivores. The most common species in Panama were three times more abundant than those in Amazonia, whereas overall richness was 1.5 times greater in Amazonia. Despite these differences in community structure, other basic information, including uncertainty in population density estimates, has yet to be quantified. Results from existing plots may inform drivers of differences in community structure and create baselines for detection of long-term regional changes in bird abundances, but supplementation of the small number of plots is needed to increase generalizability of results and reveal the texture of geographic variation. We propose fruitful avenues of future research based on our current synthesis of the big bird plots. Collaborating with the large network of ForestGEO tree plots could be one approach to improve understanding of linkages between plant and bird diversity. Careful quantification of bird survey effort, recording of exact locations of survey routes or stations, and archiving detailed metadata will greatly enhance the value of benchmark data for future repeat surveys of the existing plots and initial surveys of newly established plots.

Sensitivity of Tropical Insectivorous Birds to the Anthropocene: A Review of Multiple Mechanisms and Conservation Implications

Epigraph: “The house is burning. We do not need a thermometer. We need a fire hose.” (P. 102, Janzen and Hallwachs, 2019). Insectivorous birds are declining widely, and for diverse reasons. Tropical insectivorous birds, more than 60% of all tropical birds, are particularly sensitive to human disturbances including habitat loss and fragmentation, intensive agriculture and pesticide use, and climate change; and the mechanisms are incompletely understood. This review addresses multiple, complementary and sometimes synergistic explanations for tropical insectivore declines, by categorizing explanations into ultimate vs. proximate, and direct versus indirect. Ultimate explanations are diverse human Anthropocene activities and the evolutionary history of these birds. This evolutionary history, synthesized by the Biotic Challenge Hypothesis (BCH), explains tropical insectivorous birds' vulnerabilities to many proximate threats as a function of both these birds' evolutionary feeding specialization and poor dispersal capacity. These traits were favored evolutionarily by both the diversity of insectivorous clades competing intensely for prey and co-evolution with arthropods over long evolutionary time periods. More proximate, ecological threats include bottom-up forces like declining insect populations, top-down forces like meso-predator increases, plus the Anthropocene activities underlying these factors, especially habitat loss and fragmentation, agricultural intensification, and climate change. All these conditions peak in the lowland, mainland Neotropics, where insectivorous bird declines have been repeatedly documented, but also occur in other tropical locales and continents. This multiplicity of interacting evolutionary and ecological factors informs conservation implications and recommendations for tropical insectivorous birds: (1) Why they are so sensitive to global change phenomena is no longer enigmatic, (2) distinguishing ultimate versus proximate stressors matters, (3) evolutionary life-histories predispose these birds to be particularly sensitive to the Anthropocene, (4) tropical regions and continents vary with respect to these birds' ecological sensitivity, (5) biodiversity concepts need stronger incorporation of species' evolutionary histories, (6) protecting these birds will require more, larger reserves for multiple reasons, and (7) these birds have greater value than generally recognized.

Erosion of tropical bird diversity over a century is influenced by abundance, diet and subtle climatic tolerances

Human alteration of landscapes leads to attrition of biodiversity. Recommendations for maximizing retention of species richness typically focus on protection and preservation of large habitat patches. Despite a century of protection from human disturbance, 27% of the 228 bird species initially detected on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, a large hilltop forest fragment isolated by waters of Gatun Lake, are now absent. Lost species were more likely to be initially uncommon and terrestrial insectivores. Analyses of the regional avifauna, exhaustively inventoried and mapped across 24 subregions, identified strong geographical discontinuities in species distributions associated with a steep transisthmian rainfall gradient. Having lost mostly species preferring humid forests, the BCI species assemblage continues to shift from one originally typical of wetter forests toward one now resembling bird communities in drier forests. Even when habitat remnants are large and protected for 100 years, altered habitat characteristics resulting from isolation produce non-random loss of species linked with their commonness, dietary preferences and subtle climatic sensitivities.

Temperature-associated decreases in demographic rates of Afrotropical bird species over 30 years

Tropical mountains harbor globally significant levels of biodiversity and endemism. Climate change threatens many tropical montane species, yet little research has assessed the effects of climate change on the demographic rates of tropical species, particularly in the Afrotropics. Here, we report on the demographic rates of 21 Afrotropical bird species over 30 years in montane forests in Tanzania. We used mark-recapture analyses to model rates of population growth, recruitment, and apparent survival as functions of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. For over one-half of focal species, decreasing population growth rates were associated with increasing temperature. Due to the trend in temperature over time, we substituted a time covariate for the temperature covariate in top-ranked population growth rate models. Temperature was a better explanatory covariate than time for 6 of the 12 species, or 29% of all focal species. Population growth rates were also lower for species found further below their elevational midpoint and for smaller-bodied species. Changes in population growth rates were more closely tied to changes in recruitment than to changes in apparent survival. There were no consistent associations between demographic rates and precipitation. This study demonstrates temperature-associated demographic impacts for 6 (29%) of 21 focal species in an Afrotropical understory bird community and highlights the need to incorporate the impacts of climate change on demographic rates into conservation planning across the tropics.

Ecological Correlates of Elevational Range Shifts in Tropical Birds

Globally, birds have been shown to respond to climate change by shifting their elevational distributions. This phenomenon is especially prevalent in the tropics, where elevational gradients are often hotspots of diversity and endemism. Empirical evidence has suggested that elevational range shifts are far from uniform across species, varying greatly in the direction (upslope vs. downslope) and rate of change (speed of elevational shift). However, little is known about the drivers of these variable responses to climate change, limiting our ability to accurately project changes in the future. Here, we compile empirical estimates of elevational shift rates (m/yr) for 421 bird species from eight study sites across the tropics. On average, species shifted their mean elevations upslope by 1.63 ± 0.30 m/yr, their upper limits by 1.62 m ± 0.38 m/yr, and their lower limits by 2.81 ± 0.42 m/yr. Upslope shift rates increased in smaller-bodied, less territorial species, whereas larger species were more likely to shift downslope. When considering absolute shift rates, rates were fastest for species with high dispersal ability, low foraging strata, and wide elevational ranges. Our results indicate that elevational shift rates are associated with species’ traits, particularly body size, dispersal ability, and territoriality. However, these effects vary substantially across sites, suggesting that responses of tropical montane bird communities to climate change are complex and best predicted within the local or regional context.

Bird Occupancy of a Neotropical Forest Fragment Is Mostly Stable over 17 Years but Influenced by Forest Age

The effects of forest degradation, fragmentation, and climate change occur over long time periods, yet relatively few data are available to evaluate the long-term effects of these disturbances on tropical species occurrence. Here, we quantified changes in occupancy of 50 bird species over 17 years on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, a model system for the long-term effects of habitat fragmentation. The historical data set (2002–2005) was based on point counts, whereas the contemporary data set (2018) was based on acoustic monitoring. For most species, there was no significant change in occupancy; however, the occupancy of four species (Tinamus major, Polioptila plumbea, Myiarchus tuberculifer, and Ceratopipra mentalis) increased significantly, and the occupancy of three species (Saltator grossus, Melanerpes pucherani, and Cyanoloxia cyanoides) decreased significantly. Forest age explained the majority of occupancy variation and affected the occupancy of more bird species than survey period or elevation. Approximately 50% of the species seem to favor old-growth forest, and 15 species (30%) had a significantly higher occupancy in old-growth forest sites. Elevation had no significant impact on the occupancy of the majority of bird species. Although BCI has been a protected reserve for approximately 100 years, land-use legacies (i.e., forest age) continue to influence bird distribution.