Spatial and body-size dependent response of marine pelagic communities to projected global climate change

We need to talk about the role of zooplankton in marine food webs

Zooplankton are the key intermediary between primary production and the fish community and a cornerstone of marine food webs, but they are often poorly represented in models that tend to focus on fish, charismatic top predators, or ocean biogeochemistry. In this study, we use an intermediate complexity end-to-end food web model of the North Sea with explicit two-way coupling of zooplankton to phytoplankton and higher trophic levels to ask whether this matters. We vary the metabolic rate of omnivorous zooplankton (OZ) as a proxy for uncertainties in our understanding and modeling of zooplankton form and function, and moving beyond previous studies we look at the impacts on the food web in concert with climate warming and fishing. We consider impacts on food web state and time to recover the relevant unfished state after fishing ceases. We also consider potential impacts on pelagic and demersal fishing fleets if we assume that they are constrained by the requirement to allow recovery to an unfished state within a certain period of time as a way of ensuring consistency with Good Environmental Status as required by EU and UK legislation. We find that all three aspects considered are highly sensitive to changes in the treatment of zooplankton, with impacts being larger than for warming of 2 or 4°C across most food web functional groups, particularly for apex predators. We call for a programme of research aimed at improving our understanding of zooplankton ecology and its relationship to the wider food web, and we recommend that improved representations of zooplankton are incorporated in future modeling studies as a priority.

Temperature alters the predator-prey size relationships and size-selectivity of Southern Ocean fish

A primary response of many marine ectotherms to warming is a reduction in body size, to lower the metabolic costs associated with higher temperatures. The impact of such changes on ecosystem dynamics and stability will depend on the resulting changes to community size-structure, but few studies have investigated how temperature affects the relative size of predators and their prey in natural systems. We utilise >3700 prey size measurements from ten Southern Ocean lanternfish species sampled across >10° of latitude to investigate how temperature influences predator-prey size relationships and size-selective feeding. As temperature increased, we show that predators became closer in size to their prey, which was primarily associated with a decline in predator size and an increase in the relative abundance of intermediate-sized prey. The potential implications of these changes include reduced top-down control of prey populations and a reduction in the diversity of predator-prey interactions. Both of these factors could reduce the stability of community dynamics and ecosystem resistance to perturbations under ocean warming.

Single and combined effects of increased temperature and methylmercury on different stages of the marine rotifer Brachionus plicatilis

Rapid, anthropogenic activity-induced global warming is a severe problem that not only raises water temperatures but also shifts aquatic environments by increasing the bioavailability of heavy metals (HMs), with potentially complicated effects on aquatic organisms, including small aquatic invertebrates. For this paper, we investigated the combined effects of temperature (23 and 28 °C) and methylmercury (MeHg) by measuring physiological changes, bioaccumulation, oxidative stress, antioxidants, and the mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling pathway in the marine rotifer Brachionus plicatilis. High temperature and MeHg adversely affected the survival rate, lifespan, and population of rotifers, and bioaccumulation, oxidative stress, and biochemical reactions depended on the developmental stage, with neonates showing higher susceptibility than adults. These findings demonstrate that increased temperature enhances potentially toxic effects from MeHg, and susceptibility differs with the developmental stage. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the combined effects of elevated temperature and MeHg on rotifers. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATION: Methylmercury (MeHg) is a widespread and harmful heavy metal that can induce lethal effects on aquatic organisms in even trace amounts. The toxicity of metals can vary depending on various environmental conditions. In particular, rising temperatures are considered a major factor affecting bioavailability and toxicity by changing the sensitivity of organisms. However, there are few studies on the combinational effects of high temperatures and MeHg on aquatic animals, especially invertebrates. Our research would contribute to understanding the actual responses of aquatic organisms to complex aquatic environments.

Comparative analysis of climate-induced changes in distribution of representative fish species in the Yellow Sea

Climate changes are posing remarkable impacts on marine fish and fisheries. Although many studies have addressed the distributional effects of climate change on single fish species or taxa in recent years, comparative studies focusing on different types of fish are still lacking. In this study, we applied dynamic bioclimate envelop models (DBEM), based on three earth system models, to predict sea surface and bottom temperature, as well as the spatial and temporal distribution of nine representative fishes in the Yellow Sea, contain two habitats, i.e., continental shelf benthopelagic (CBD) and continental shelf pelagic-neritic (CPN) fishes, and two thermophilies, i.e., warm temperate (WT) and warm water (WW) fishes. Under a low emissions scenario (RCP 2.6) and a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) between 1970 and 2060, results reveal that: a) CPN fishes show a distinct tendency to move to higher latitudes than CBD fishes, and WW fishes show a significant tendency to migrate more widely to the north than WT fishes; b) The relative abundance of CPN fishes is expected to be higher than that of CBD fishes, while there is no apparent difference in relative abundance between WW fishes and WT fishes. The main reasons for this difference are presumed to be: variance of temperature rise between the sea surface and bottom layers, divergent adaptations of the species, and disparate degrees of anthropogenic influence.

Changes in sea floor productivity are crucial to understanding the impact of climate change in temperate coastal ecosystems according to a new size-based model

The multifaceted effects of climate change on physical and biogeochemical processes are rapidly altering marine ecosystems but often are considered in isolation, leaving our understanding of interactions between these drivers of ecosystem change relatively poor. This is particularly true for shallow coastal ecosystems, which are fuelled by a combination of distinct pelagic and benthic energy pathways that may respond to climate change in fundamentally distinct ways. The fish production supported by these systems is likely to be impacted by climate change differently to those of offshore and shelf ecosystems, which have relatively simpler food webs and mostly lack benthic primary production sources. We developed a novel, multispecies size spectrum model for shallow coastal reefs, specifically designed to simulate potential interactive outcomes of changing benthic and pelagic energy inputs and temperatures and calculate the relative importance of these variables for the fish community. Our model, calibrated using field data from an extensive temperate reef monitoring program, predicts that changes in resource levels will have much stronger impacts on fish biomass and yields than changes driven by physiological responses to temperature. Under increased plankton abundance, species in all fish trophic groups were predicted to increase in biomass, average size, and yields. By contrast, changes in benthic resources produced variable responses across fish trophic groups. Increased benthic resources led to increasing benthivorous and piscivorous fish biomasses, yields, and mean body sizes, but biomass decreases among herbivore and planktivore species. When resource changes were combined with warming seas, physiological responses generally decreased species' biomass and yields. Our results suggest that understanding changes in benthic production and its implications for coastal fisheries should be a priority research area. Our modified size spectrum model provides a framework for further study of benthic and pelagic energy pathways that can be easily adapted to other ecosystems.

Morphological diversity increases with decreasing resources along a zooplankton time series

Biodiversity is studied notably because of its reciprocal relationship with ecosystem functions such as production. Diversity is traditionally described from a taxonomic, genetic or functional point of view but the diversity in organism morphology is seldom explicitly considered, except for body size. We describe morphological diversity of marine zooplankton seasonally and over 12 years using quantitative imaging of weekly plankton samples, in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. We extract 45 morphological features on greater than 800 000 individuals, which we summarize into four main morphological traits (size, transparency, circularity and shape complexity). In this morphological space, we define objective morphological groups and, from those, compute morphological diversity indices (richness, evenness and divergence) using metrics originally defined for functional diversity. On both time scales, morphological diversity increased when nutritive resources and plankton concentrations were low, thus matching the theoretical reciprocal relationship. Over the long term at least, this diversity increase was not fully attributable to taxonomic diversity changes. The decline in the most common plankton forms and the increase in morphological variance and in extreme morphologies suggest a mechanism akin to specialization under low production, with likely consequences for trophic structure and carbon flux.

Immune and Reproductive Biomarkers in Female Sea Urchins Paracentrotus lividus under Heat Stress

The functioning of the immune and reproductive systems is crucial for the fitness and survival of species and is strongly influenced by the environment. To evaluate the effects of short-term heat stress (HS) on these systems, confirming and deepening previous studies, female sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus were exposed for 7 days to 17 °C, 23 and 28 °C. Several biomarkers were detected such as the ferric reducing power (FRAP), ABTS-based total antioxidant capacity (TAC-ABTS), nitric oxide metabolites (NOx), total thiol levels (TTL), myeloperoxidase (MPO) and protease (PA) activities in the coelomic fluid (CF) and mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP), H2O2 content and intracellular pH (pHi) in eggs and coelomocytes, in which TAC-ABTS and reactive nitrogen species (RNS) were also analyzed. In the sea urchins exposed to HS, CF analysis showed a decrease in FRAP levels and an increase in TAC-ABTS, TTL, MPO and PA levels; in coelomocytes, RNS, MMP and H2O2 content increased, whereas pHi decreased; in eggs, increases in MMP, H2O2 content and pHi were found. In conclusion, short-term HS leads to changes in five out of the six CF biomarkers analyzed and functional alterations in the cells involved in either reproductive or immune activities.

High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change

Despite recurrent emphasis on their ecological and economic roles, the importance of high trophic levels (HTLs) on ocean carbon dynamics, through passive (fecal pellet production, carcasses) and active (vertical migration) processes, is still largely unexplored, notably under climate change scenarios. In addition, HTLs impact the ecosystem dynamics through top-down effects on lower trophic levels, which might change under anthropogenic influence. Here we compare two simulations of a global biogeochemical-ecosystem model with and without feedbacks from large marine animals. We show that these large marine animals affect the evolution of low trophic level biomasses, hence net primary production and most certainly ecosystem equilibrium, but seem to have little influence on the 21st-century anthropogenic carbon uptake under the RCP8.5 scenario. These results provide new insights regarding the expectations for trophic amplification of climate change through the marine trophic chain and regarding the necessity to explicitly represent marine animals in Earth System Models.

Temperature and feeding frequency impact the survival, growth, and metamorphosis success of Solea solea larvae

Human-induced climate change impacts the oceans, increasing their temperature, changing their circulation and chemical properties, and affecting marine ecosystems. Like most marine species, sole has a biphasic life cycle, where one planktonic larval stage and juvenile/adult stages occur in a different ecological niche. The year-class strength, usually quantified by the end of the larvae stage, is crucial for explaining the species' recruitment. We implemented an experimental system for rearing larvae under laboratory conditions and experimentally investigated the effects of temperature and feeding frequencies on survival, development (growth), and metamorphosis success of S. solea larvae. Specific questions addressed in this work include: what are the effects of feeding regimes on larvae development? How does temperature impact larvae development? Our results highlight that survival depends on the first feeding, that the onset of metamorphosis varies according to rearing temperature and that poorly fed larvae take significantly longer to start (if they do) metamorphosing. Moreover, larvae reared at the higher temperature (a +4°C scenario) showed a higher incidence in metamorphosis defects. We discuss the implications of our results in an ecological context, notably in terms of recruitment and settlement. Understanding the processes that regulate the abundance of wild populations is of primary importance, especially if these populations are living resources exploited by humans.

Fish Community Structure and Biomass Particle-Size Spectrum in the Upper Reaches of the Jinsha River (China)

To understand the characteristics of the fish community structure and biomass particle-size spectrum in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River, fish and environmental surveys were conducted in 21 segments of the upper reaches of the Jinsha River in September 2019 and June 2020. A total of 4062 fish belonging to 2 orders, 5 families, 18 genera, and 28 species were collected. Among them, Cyprinidae fish were the most abundant (14 species), accounting for 50.00%. The Shannon index and Pielou evenness index values varied from 0.402-1.770 and 0.254-0.680, respectively. The dominant species of fish were Triplophysa stenura, Schizothorax wangchiachii, and Schizopygopsis malacanthus. Redundancy analysis (RDA) was used to analyse the relationship between the fish community and environmental factors. Velocity, altitude, and dissolved oxygen were the main influencing factors of fish community structure differences in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River. The abundance/biomass curves showed that the fish communities in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River were moderately or severely disturbed. The standardized biomass particle-size spectrum of fish showed that the degree of disturbance of fish in tributaries was much lower than that in the main stream. Compared with the historical data, the fish community structure in the Jinsha River has changed significantly, with the number of exotic species increasing, and the individual fish showing miniaturization and younger ages. It is suggested that habitat conservation strategies be adopted in the upper tributaries of the Jinsha River to provide a reference for the restoration of fishery resources and the conservation of fish diversity in the Yangtze River.

Temperature impacts on fish physiology and resource abundance lead to faster growth but smaller fish sizes and yields under warming

Resolving the combined effect of climate warming and exploitation in a food web context is key for predicting future biomass production, size-structure and potential yields of marine fishes. Previous studies based on mechanistic size-based food web models have found that bottom-up processes are important drivers of size-structure and fisheries yield in changing climates. However, we know less about the joint effects of 'bottom-up' and physiological effects of temperature; how do temperature effects propagate from individual-level physiology through food webs and alter the size-structure of exploited species in a community? Here, we assess how a species-resolved size-based food web is affected by warming through both these pathways and by exploitation. We parameterize a dynamic size spectrum food web model inspired by the offshore Baltic Sea food web, and investigate how individual growth rates, size-structure, and relative abundances of species and yields are affected by warming. The magnitude of warming is based on projections by the regional coupled model system RCA4-NEMO and the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, and we evaluate different scenarios of temperature dependence on fish physiology and resource productivity. When accounting for temperature-effects on physiology in addition to on basal productivity, projected size-at-age in 2050 increases on average for all fish species, mainly for young fish, compared to scenarios without warming. In contrast, size-at-age decreases when temperature affects resource dynamics only, and the decline is largest for young fish. Faster growth rates due to warming, however, do not always translate to larger yields, as lower resource carrying capacities with increasing temperature tend to result in decline in the abundance of larger fish and hence spawning stock biomass. These results suggest that to understand how global warming affects the size structure of fish communities, both direct metabolic effects and indirect effects of temperature via basal resources must be accounted for.

In situ experimental evidences for responses of abyssal benthic biota to shifts in phytodetritus compositions linked to global climate change

Abyssal plains cover more than half of Earth's surface, and the main food source in these ecosystems is phytodetritus, mainly originating from primary producers in the euphotic zone of the ocean. Global climate change is influencing phytoplankton abundance, productivity, and distribution. Increasing importance of picoplankton over diatom as primary producers in surface oceans (especially projected for higher latitudes) is projected and hence altering the quantity of organic carbon supplied to the abyssal seafloor as phytodetritus, consequences of which remain largely unknown. Here, we investigated the in situ responses of abyssal biota from viruses to megafauna to different types of phytoplankton input (diatoms or cyanobacteria which were labeled with stable isotopes) at equatorial (oligotrophic) and temperate (eutrophic) benthic sites in the Pacific Ocean (1°N at 4277 m water depth and 39°N at 5260 m water depth, respectively). Our results show that meiofauna and macrofauna generally preferred diatoms as a food source and played a relatively larger role in the consumption of phytodetritus at higher latitudes (39°N). Contrarily, prokaryotes and viruses showed similar or even stronger responses to cyanobacterial than to diatom supply. Moreover, the response of prokaryotes and viruses was very rapid (within 1-2 days) at both 1°N and 39°N, with quickest responses reported in the case of cyanobacterial supply at higher latitudes. Overall, our results suggest that benthic deep-sea eukaryotes will be negatively affected by the predicted decrease in diatoms in surface oceans, especially at higher latitudes, where benthic prokaryotes and viruses will otherwise likely increase their quantitative role and organic carbon cycling rates. In turn, such changes can contribute to decrease carbon transfer from phytodetritus to higher trophic levels, with strong potential to affect oceanic food webs, their biodiversity and consequently carbon sequestration capacity at the global scale.

Major restructuring of marine plankton assemblages under global warming

Marine phytoplankton and zooplankton form the basis of the ocean’s food-web, yet the impacts of climate change on their biodiversity are poorly understood. Here, we use an ensemble of species distribution models for a total of 336 phytoplankton and 524 zooplankton species to determine their present and future habitat suitability patterns. For the end of this century, under a high emission scenario, we find an overall increase in plankton species richness driven by ocean warming, and a poleward shift of the species’ distributions at a median speed of 35 km/decade. Phytoplankton species richness is projected to increase by more than 16% over most regions except for the Arctic Ocean. In contrast, zooplankton richness is projected to slightly decline in the tropics, but to increase strongly in temperate to subpolar latitudes. In these latitudes, nearly 40% of the phytoplankton and zooplankton assemblages are replaced by poleward shifting species. This implies that climate change threatens the contribution of plankton communities to plankton-mediated ecosystem services such as biological carbon sequestration.

Warming will affect marine plankton biomass, but also its diversity and community composition in poorly understood ways. Here, the authors model the spatial distribution of 860 marine plankton species from 10 functional groups and identify the future hotspots of climate change impacts under RCP8.5.

Responses of marine ecosystems to climate change impacts and their treatment in biogeochemical ecosystem models

To predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and the effectiveness of intervention and mitigation strategies, we need reliable marine ecosystem response models such as biogeochemical models that reproduce climate change effects. We reviewed marine ecosystem parameters and processes that are modified by climate change and examined their representations in biogeochemical ecosystem models. The interactions among important aspects of marine ecosystem modelling are not often considered due to complexity: these include the use of multiple IPCC scenarios, ensemble modelling approach, independent calibration datasets, the consideration of changes in cloud cover, ocean currents, wind speed, sea-level rise, storm frequency, storm intensity, and the incorporation of species adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Including our recommendations in future marine modelling studies could help improve the accuracy and reliability of model predictions of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

Anthropogenic climate change impacts on copepod trait biogeography

Copepods are among the most abundant marine metazoans and form a key link between marine primary producers, higher trophic levels, and carbon sequestration pathways. Climate change is projected to change surface ocean temperature by up to 4°C in the North Atlantic with many associated changes including slowing of the overturning circulation, areas of regional freshening, and increased salinity and reductions in nutrients available in the euphotic zone over the next century. These changes will lead to a restructuring of phytoplankton and zooplankton communities with cascading effects throughout the food web. Here we employ observations of copepods, projected changes in ocean climate, and species distribution models to show how climate change may affect the distribution of copepod species in the North Atlantic. On average species move northeast at a rate of 14.1 km decade^-1 . Species turnover in copepod communities will range from 5% to 75% with the highest turnover rates concentrated in regions of pronounced temperature increase and decrease. The changes in species range vary according to copepod traits with the largest effects found to occur in the cooling, freshening area in the subpolar North Atlantic south of Greenland and in an area of significant warming along the Scotian shelf. Large diapausing copepods (>2.5 mm) which are higher in lipids and a crucial food source for whales, may have an advantage in the cooling waters due to their life-history strategy that facilitates their survival in the arctic environment. Carnivorous copepods show a basin wide increase in species richness and show significant habitat area increases when their distribution moves poleward while herbivores see significant habitat area losses. The trait-specific effects highlight the complex consequences of climate change for the marine food web.

Spatial drivers of instability in marine size-spectrum ecosystems

Size-spectrum models are a recent class of models describing the dynamics of a whole community based on a description of individual organisms. The models are motivated by marine ecosystems where they cover the size range from multicellular plankton to the largest fish. We propose to extend the size-spectrum model with spatial components. The spatial dynamics is governed by a random motion and a directed movement in the direction of increased fitness, which we call 'fitness-taxis'. We use the model to explore whether spatial irregularities of marine communities can occur due to the internal dynamics of predator-prey interactions and spatial movements. This corresponds to a pattern-formation analysis generalized to an entire ecosystem but is not limited to one prey and one predator population. The analyses take the form of Fourier analysis and numerical experiments. Results show that diffusion always stabilizes the equilibrium but fitness-taxis destabilizes it, leading to non-stationary spatially inhomogeneous population densities, which are travelling in size. However, there is a strong asymmetry between fitness-induced destabilizing effects and diffusion-induced stabilizing effects with the latter dominating over the former. These findings reveal that fitness taxis acts as a possible mechanism behind pattern formations in ecosystems with high diversity of organism sizes, which can drive the emergence of spatial heterogeneity even in a spatially homogeneous environment.

Modelling spatiotemporal trends in range shifts of marine commercial fish species driven by climate change surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula

In recent decades, the relationships between species distributional shifts and climate change have been investigated at various geographic scales, yet there is still a gap in understanding the impacts of climate change on marine commercial fish species surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula. The dynamic bioclimate envelope model (DBEM) is a mechanistic model that encompass species distribution model and population dynamic model approaches to project the spatiotemporal change of marine commercial fish species driven by various climate change scenarios in the Southern Ocean. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal changes of marine commercial fish species surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) from 1970 to 2060 following three different Earth System Models (ESMs), namely, the GFDL-ESM 2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MPI-ESM-MR. Results reveal that: i) The general latitudinal gradient patterns in species richness shifts poleward associated with a global abundance decrease ii) The Spp. richness in Eastern Antarctic Peninsula (EAP) is higher than in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) at the same latitude (>65°S latitude). iii) The reasons are that the krill-dependent predators in WAP could face a higher risk of depletion than that in EAP due to ocean warming and anthropogenic activities.

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans

Under climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. Using an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under four standardized emissions scenarios. By 2099, under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of −7.7% (±29.5%) within the Canadian EEZ, dominated by declines in the Pacific (−24% ± 24.5%) and Atlantic (−25.5% ± 9.5%) areas; these were partially compensated by increases in the Canadian Arctic (+26.2% ± 38.4%). Lower emissions scenarios projected successively smaller biomass changes, highlighting the benefits of stronger mitigation targets. Individual model projections were most consistent in the Atlantic and Pacific, but highly variable in the Arctic due to model uncertainties in polar regions. Different trajectories of future marine biomass changes will require regional-specific responses in conservation and management strategies, such as adaptive planning of marine protected areas and species-specific management plans, to enhance resilience and rebuilding of Canada’s marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks.

Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs).

RECENT FINDINGS

The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models.

SUMMARY

Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

Latitudinal gradients in body size in marine tardigrades

Homeotherms and many poikilotherms display a positive relationship between body size and latitude, but this has rarely been investigated in microscopic animals. We analysed all published records of marine Tardigrada to address whether microscopic marine invertebrates have similar ecogeographical patterns to macroscopic animals. The data were analysed using spatially explicit generalized least squares models and linear models. We looked for latitudinal patterns in body size and species richness, testing for sampling bias and phylogenetic constraints. No latitudinal pattern was detected for species richness, and sampling bias was the strongest correlate of species richness. A hump-shaped increase in median body size with latitude was found, and the effect remained significant for the Northern Hemisphere but not for the Southern. The most significant effect supporting the latitudinal gradient was on minimum body size, with smaller species disappearing at higher latitudes. Our results suggest that biogeographical signals were observed for body size, albeit difficult to detect in poorly studied groups because of swamping from biased sampling effort and from low sample size. We did not find a significant correlation with the latitudinal pattern of body size and ecologically relevant net primary productivity.

Effects of elevated temperature on gonadal functions, cellular apoptosis, and oxidative stress in Atlantic sea urchin Arbacia punculata

Increasing seawater temperature affects growth, reproduction and development in marine organisms. In this study, we examined the effects of elevated temperatures on reproductive functions, heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) and nitrotyrosine protein (NTP, an indicator of reactive nitrogen species) expressions, protein carbonyl (PC, an indicator of oxidative stress) contents, cellular apoptosis, and coelomic fluid (CF) conditions in Atlantic sea urchin. Sea urchins were housed in six aquaria with control (24 °C) and elevated temperatures (28 °C and 32 °C) for a 7-day period. After exposure, sea urchins exhibited decreased percentages of gametes (eggs/sperm), as well as increased HSP70 and NTP expressions in eggs and spermatogenic cells, increased gonadal apoptosis, and decreased CF pH compared to controls. PC contents were also significantly increased in gonadal tissues at higher temperatures. These results suggest that elevated temperature acidifies CF, increases oxidative stress and gonadal apoptosis, and results in impairment of reproductive functions in sea urchins.

Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems through the lens of the size spectrum

Climate change is a complex global issue that is driving countless shifts in the structure and function of marine ecosystems. To better understand these shifts, many processes need to be considered, yet they are often approached from incompatible perspectives. This article reviews one relatively simple, integrated perspective: the abundance-size spectrum. We introduce the topic with a brief review of some of the ways climate change is expected to impact the marine ecosystem according to complex numerical models while acknowledging the limits to understanding posed by complex models. We then review how the size spectrum offers a simple conceptual alternative, given its regular power law size-frequency distribution when viewed on sufficiently broad scales. We further explore how anticipated physical aspects of climate change might manifest themselves through changes in the elevation, slope and regularity of the size spectrum, exposing mechanistic questions about integrated ecosystem structure, as well as how organism physiology and ecological interactions respond to multiple climatic stressors. Despite its application by ecosystem modellers and fisheries scientists, the size spectrum perspective is not widely used as a tool for monitoring ecosystem adaptation to climate change, providing a major opportunity for further research.

Influences of Global Warming on the Larval Survival and Transport of Snow Crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in the Sea of Japan

The snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) sustains an important bottom trawling fishery in the Sea of Japan. Its response to global warming is attracting the attention of the public. Using a transport and survival model for crab larvae in the Sea of Japan, we examined the spatial-temporal variations of crab spawning and larval settlement in the past (mid-20th century), present (early 21st century), and future (mid- and late 21st century) under the low and high radiative forcing scenarios. It was found that the variations in spawning differed between the regions south of and north of 41.5° N, on both seasonal and long-term scales. Larval settlement in the Sea of Japan was projected to increase in the future, which is mainly attributed to a reduction in mortality due to the low water temperature. Moreover, the aggregating location of the settled megalopae will likely shift northward, with increasing settlement off Hokkaido Island. With additional sensitivity experiments, we confirmed that the change in water temperature has a stronger impact on larval settlement than that in the current field. The change in water temperature controlled both the amount and distribution of crab larval settlement, while a change in current field only affected the distribution to some extent.

Twenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins

Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%-30% (±12%-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%-80% (±35%-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.

Irreversible behavioural impairment of fish starts early: Embryonic exposure to ocean acidification

Long-term species responses to ocean acidification depend on their sensitivity during different life stages. We tested for sensitivity of juvenile fish behaviour to ocean acidification by exposing eggs to control and elevated CO₂ levels, and translocating offspring between treatments in a reciprocal design. After 12 weeks of exposure, activity, inactivity and anxiety levels of juveniles from control eggs were similar, whether juveniles had experienced elevated CO₂ conditions or not, and this pattern was consistent over time. However, juveniles raised as eggs under elevated CO₂ showed increased anxiety levels compared to those from control eggs. This response was not reversed when CO₂-exposed juveniles were translocated to control conditions. Our findings highlight the value of evaluating fish sensitivities to global change pollutants across different life stages, and indicate that sensitivity during the often-overlooked egg stage can be critical with long-lasting impairment of behaviours that are coupled to individual fitness and population persistence.

The effects of elevated CO2 on shell properties and susceptibility to predation in mussels Mytilus edulis

For many species, ocean acidification (OA) is having negative physiological consequences on their fitness and resilience to environmental change, but less is known about the ecosystem effects of these changes. Here, we assess how OA conditions predicted for 2100 affects the biological functioning of an important habitat-forming species Mytilus edulis and its susceptibility to predation by a key predator, the gastropod Nucella lapillus. Change in three physiological parameters in Mytilus were assessed: (1) shell thickness and cross-sectional surface area, (2) body volume and (3) feeding rate, as well as susceptibility to predation by N. lapillus. Shell thickness and cross-section area, body volume and feeding rate of Mytilus all reduced under OA conditions indicating compromised fitness. Predation risk increased by ∼26% under OA, suggesting increased susceptibility of mussels to predation and/or altered predator foraging behaviour. Notably, predation of large Mytilus - that were largely free from predation under control conditions - increased by more than 8x under OA, suggesting that body size was no longer a refuge. Our results suggest OA will impact upon ecosystem structure and functioning and the continued provision of ecosystem services associated with Mytilus reefs and the communities associated with them.

Interdisciplinary knowledge exchange across scales in a globally changing marine environment

The effects of anthropogenic global environmental change on biotic and abiotic processes have been reported in aquatic systems across the world. Complex synergies between concurrent environmental stressors and the resilience of the system to regime shifts, which vary in space and time, determine the capacity for marine systems to maintain structure and function with global environmental change. Consequently, an interdisciplinary approach that facilitates the development of new methods for the exchange of knowledge between scientists across multiple scales is required to effectively understand, quantify and predict climate impacts on marine ecosystem services. We use a literature review to assess the limitations and assumptions of current pathways to exchange interdisciplinary knowledge and the transferability of research findings across spatial and temporal scales and levels of biological organization to advance scientific understanding of global environmental change in marine systems. We found that species-specific regional scale climate change research is most commonly published, and "supporting" is the ecosystem service most commonly referred to in publications. In addition, our paper outlines a trajectory for the future development of integrated climate change science for sustaining marine ecosystem services such as investment in interdisciplinary education and connectivity between disciplines.

Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture

Fisheries and aquaculture make a crucial contribution to global food security, nutrition and livelihoods. However, the UN Sustainable Development Goals separate marine and terrestrial food production sectors and ecosystems. To sustainably meet increasing global demands for fish, the interlinkages among goals within and across fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture sectors must be recognized and addressed along with their changing nature. Here, we assess and highlight development challenges for fisheries-dependent countries based on analyses of interactions and trade-offs between goals focusing on food, biodiversity and climate change. We demonstrate that some countries are likely to face double jeopardies in both fisheries and agriculture sectors under climate change. The strategies to mitigate these risks will be context-dependent, and will need to directly address the trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals, such as halting biodiversity loss and reducing poverty. Countries with low adaptive capacity but increasing demand for food require greater support and capacity building to transition towards reconciling trade-offs. Necessary actions are context-dependent and include effective governance, improved management and conservation, maximizing societal and environmental benefits from trade, increased equitability of distribution and innovation in food production, including continued development of low input and low impact aquaculture.

Climate change is projected to reduce carrying capacity and redistribute species richness in North Pacific pelagic marine ecosystems

Climate change is expected to impact all aspects of marine ecosystems, including fisheries. Here, we use output from a suite of 11 earth system models to examine projected changes in two ecosystem-defining variables: temperature and food availability. In particular, we examine projected changes in epipelagic temperature and, as a proxy for food availability, zooplankton density. We find that under RCP8.5, a high business-as-usual greenhouse gas scenario, increasing temperatures may alter the spatial distribution of tuna and billfish species richness across the North Pacific basin. Furthermore, warmer waters and declining zooplankton densities may act together to lower carrying capacity for commercially valuable fish by 2-5% per decade over the 21st century. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the magnitude, composition, and distribution of commercial fish catch across the pelagic North Pacific. Such changes will in turn ultimately impact commercial fisheries' economic value. Fishery managers should anticipate these climate impacts to ensure sustainable fishery yields and livelihoods.

Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity

Photosynthesis fuels marine food webs, yet differences in fish catch across globally distributed marine ecosystems far exceed differences in net primary production (NPP). We consider the hypothesis that ecosystem-level variations in pelagic and benthic energy flows from phytoplankton to fish, trophic transfer efficiencies, and fishing effort can quantitatively reconcile this contrast in an energetically consistent manner. To test this hypothesis, we enlist global fish catch data that include previously neglected contributions from small-scale fisheries, a synthesis of global fishing effort, and plankton food web energy flux estimates from a prototype high-resolution global earth system model (ESM). After removing a small number of lightly fished ecosystems, stark interregional differences in fish catch per unit area can be explained (r = 0.79) with an energy-based model that (i) considers dynamic interregional differences in benthic and pelagic energy pathways connecting phytoplankton and fish, (ii) depresses trophic transfer efficiencies in the tropics and, less critically, (iii) associates elevated trophic transfer efficiencies with benthic-predominant systems. Model catch estimates are generally within a factor of 2 of values spanning two orders of magnitude. Climate change projections show that the same macroecological patterns explaining dramatic regional catch differences in the contemporary ocean amplify catch trends, producing changes that may exceed 50% in some regions by the end of the 21st century under high-emissions scenarios. Models failing to resolve these trophodynamic patterns may significantly underestimate regional fisheries catch trends and hinder adaptation to climate change.

The Origin of Large-Bodied Shrimp that Dominate Modern Global Aquaculture

Several shrimp species from the clade Penaeidae are farmed industrially for human consumption, and this farming has turned shrimp into the largest seafood commodity in the world. The species that are in demand for farming are an anomaly within their clade because they grow to much larger sizes than other members of Penaeidae. Here we trace the evolutionary history of the anomalous farmed shrimp using combined data phylogenetic analysis of living and fossil species. We show that exquisitely preserved fossils of †Antrimpos speciosus from the Late Jurassic Solnhofen limestone belong to the same clade as the species that dominate modern farming, dating the origin of this clade to at least 145 mya. This finding contradicts a much younger Late Cretaceous age (ca. 95 mya) previously estimated for this clade using molecular clocks. The species in the farmed shrimp clade defy a widespread tendency, by reaching relatively large body sizes despite their warm water lifestyles. Small body sizes have been shown to be physiologically favored in warm aquatic environments because satisfying oxygen demands is difficult for large organisms breathing in warm water. Our analysis shows that large-bodied, farmed shrimp have more gills than their smaller-bodied shallow-water relatives, suggesting that extra gills may have been key to the clade's ability to meet oxygen demands at a large size. Our combined data phylogenetic tree also suggests that, during penaeid evolution, the adoption of mangrove forests as habitats for young shrimp occurred multiple times independently.

Temporal variability in epifaunal assemblages associated with temperate gorgonian gardens

The present study is one of the few that investigate the temporal variability of epifaunal assemblages associated with coral species, particularly the octocorals Eunicella gazella and Leptogorgia lusitanica in south Portugal. The results suggest time rather than colony size as a primary driver of the ecological patterns of these assemblages, which were dominated by amphipods, molluscs and polychaetes. Temporal variability was linked to changes in environmental parameters, namely temperature, chlorophyll a and particulate organic carbon. Hence, temporal variability must be taken into account for the design of future biodiversity assessment studies, as different patterns may be observed depending on the sampling time. Associated epifaunal assemblages were consistently dominated by resident species (i.e. species present in all sampling periods) and a peak of rare species was observed in the transition from spring to summer following the increase in seawater temperature. Turnover was particularly high in the transition between the spring and summer periods. In both hosts, turnover was higher in the small sized colonies, which harboured less diverse and less abundant assemblages that also differed from those inhabiting larger size colonies. The high levels of diversity associated with gorgonian colonies highlight the need for the conservation of this priority habitat.