The value of crossdating to retain high-frequency variability, climate signals, and extreme events in environmental proxies

Quercus ilex L. dieback is genetically determined: Evidence provided by dendrochronology, δ13C and SSR genotyping

Quercus ilex L. dieback has been reported in several Mediterranean forests, revealing different degree of crown damages even in close sites, as observed in two Q. ilex forest stands in southern Tuscany (IT). In this work, we applied a novel approach combining dendrochronological, tree-ring δ13C and genetic analysis to test the hypothesis that different damage levels observed in a declining (D) and non-declining (ND) Q. ilex stands are connected to population features linked to distinct response to drought. Furthermore, we investigated the impact of two major drought events (2012 and 2017), that occurred in the last fifteen years in central Italy, on Q. ilex growth and intrinsic water use efficiency (WUEi). Overall, Q. ilex showed slightly different ring-width patterns between the two stands, suggesting a lower responsiveness to seasonal climatic variations for trees at D stand, while Q. ilex at ND stand showed changes in the relationship between climatic parameters and growth across time. The strong divergence in δ13C signals between the two stands suggested a more conservative use of water for Q. ilex at ND compared to D stand that may be genetically driven. Q. ilex at ND resulted more resilient to drought compared to trees at D, probably thanks to its safer water strategy. Genotyping analysis based on simple-sequence repeat (SSR) markers revealed the presence of different Q. ilex populations at D and ND stands. Our study shows intraspecific variations in drought response among trees grown in close. In addition, it highlights the potential of combining tree-ring δ13C data with SSR genotyping for the selection of seed-bearing genotypes aimed to preserve Mediterranean holm oak ecosystem and improve its forest management.

Forest growth responds more to air pollution than soil acidification

The forests of central Europe have undergone remarkable transitions in the past 40 years as air quality has improved dramatically. Retrospective analysis of Norway spruce (Picea abies) tree rings in the Czech Republic shows that air pollution (e.g. SO2 concentrations, high acidic deposition to the forest canopy) plays a dominant role in driving forest health. Extensive soil acidification occurred in the highly polluted "Black Triangle" in Central Europe, and upper mineral soils are still acidified. In contrast, acidic atmospheric deposition declined by 80% and atmospheric SO2 concentration by 90% between the late 1980s and 2010s. In this study we oserved that annual tree ring width (TRW) declined in the 1970s and subsequently recovered in the 1990s, tracking SO2 concentrations closely. Furthermore, recovery of TRW was similar in unlimed and limed stands. Despite large increases in soil base saturation, as well as soil pH, as a result of repeated liming starting in 1981, TRW growth was similar in limed and unlimed plots. TRW recovery was interrupted in 1996 when highly acidic rime (originating from more pronounced decline of alkaline dust than SO2 from local power plants) injured the spruce canopy, but recovered soon to the pre-episode growth. Across the long-term site history, changes in soil chemistry (pH, base saturation, Bc/Al soil solution ratio) cannot explain observed changes in TRW at the two study sites where we tracked soil chemistry. Instead, statistically significant recovery in TRW is linked to the trajectory of annual SO2 concentrations or sulfur deposition at all three stands.

Factors affecting year-class strength and growth of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) in impounded lakes as revealed by otolith chronologies

Recruitment and growth rates for lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) inhabiting the Smallwood Reservoir, Labrador, Canada, were influenced by facets of its creation and the temporal variability in water levels associated with its operation. Filling of the reservoir between 1971 and 1974 created a concurrent increase in lake whitefish recruitment above long-term averages. In addition, recruitment was influenced by winter drawdown levels: higher water levels during February enhanced recruitment, accounting for an additional 10% of the long-term variation in recruitment. Using otolith increments as a growth index, the authors determined that growth was influenced by reservoir creation. Growth rates during the initial period of flooding (1971-1975) exceeded long-term averages and were greater than those in any other 5-year period between 1965 and 1995. Growth rate increases were attributed to a simultaneous zooplankton bloom. After exceptional growth, lake whitefish showed a period (1976-1980) when growth rates decreased. The authors developed a quantitative technique using otoliths as an index to establish chronologies of fish growth rates. The index can be used to quantify and assess the impacts of reservoir hydrology on fish populations.

Strong Coupling between Biomineral Morphology and Sr/Ca of Arctica islandica (Bivalvia)—Implications for Shell Sr/Ca-Based Temperature Estimates

Bivalve shells serve as powerful high-resolution paleoclimate archives. However, the number of reliable temperature proxies is limited. It has remained particularly difficult to extract temperature signals from shell Sr/Ca, although Sr is routinely employed in other biogenic aragonites. In bivalves, Sr/Ca is linked to the prevailing microstructure and is sometimes affected by kinetics. Here, the hypothesis is tested that temperature can be reconstructed from shell Sr/Ca once microstructure and/or growth-rate-related bias has been mathematically eliminated. Therefore, the relationship between Sr/Ca and increment width, as well as biomineral unit size, has been studied in three different shell portions of field-grown Arctica islandica specimens. Subsequently, microstructure and/or growth-rate-related variation was removed from Sr/Ca data and residuals compared to temperature. As demonstrated, the hypothesis could not be verified. Even after detrending, Sr/Ca remained positively correlated to water temperature, which contradicts thermodynamic expectations and findings from inorganic aragonite. Any temperature signal potentially recorded by shell Sr/Ca is overprinted by other environmental forcings. Unless these variables are identified, it will remain impossible to infer temperature from Sr/Ca. Given the coupling with the biomineral unit size, a detailed characterization of the microstructure should remain an integral part of subsequent attempts to reconstruct temperature from Sr/Ca.

Adding Tree Rings to North America's National Forest Inventories: An Essential Tool to Guide Drawdown of Atmospheric CO2

Tree-ring time series provide long-term, annually resolved information on the growth of trees. When sampled in a systematic context, tree-ring data can be scaled to estimate the forest carbon capture and storage of landscapes, biomes, and—ultimately—the globe. A systematic effort to sample tree rings in national forest inventories would yield unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution of forest carbon dynamics and help resolve key scientific uncertainties, which we highlight in terms of evidence for forest greening (enhanced growth) versus browning (reduced growth, increased mortality). We describe jump-starting a tree-ring collection across the continent of North America, given the commitments of Canada, the United States, and Mexico to visit forest inventory plots, along with existing legacy collections. Failing to do so would be a missed opportunity to help chart an evidence-based path toward meeting national commitments to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, urgently needed for climate stabilization and repair.

Statistical age determination of tree rings

Dendrochronology, the study of annual rings formed by trees and woody plants, has important applications in research of climate and environmental phenomena of the past. Since its inception in the late 19^th century, dendrochronology has not had a way to quantify uncertainty about the years assigned to each ring (dating). There are, however, many woody species and sites where it is difficult or impossible to delimit annual ring boundaries and verify them with crossdating, especially in the lowland tropics. Rather than ignoring dating uncertainty or discarding such samples as useless, we present for the first time a probabilistic approach to assign expected ages with a confidence interval. It is proven that the cumulative age in a tree-ring time series advances by an amount equal to the probability that a putative growth boundary is truly annual. Confidence curves for the tree stem radius as a function of uncertain ages are determined. A sensitivity analysis shows the effect of uncertainty of the probability that a recognizable boundary is annual, as well as of the number of expected missing boundaries. Furthermore, we derive a probabilistic version of the mean sensitivity of a dendrochronological time series, which quantifies a tree’s sensitivity to environmental variation over time, as well as probabilistic versions of the autocorrelation and process standard deviation. A computer code in Mathematica is provided, with sample input files, as supporting information. Further research is necessary to analyze frequency patterns of false and missing boundaries for different species and sites.

The potential of Glycymeris longior (Mollusca, Bivalvia) as a multi-decadal sclerochronological archive for the Argentine Sea (Southern Hemisphere)

In the absence of instrumental records, shell growth increments of bivalves are used to build continuous multi-decadal time series of growth and to estimate environmental variability. While there is interest in such chronologies in the Northern Hemisphere, there is a lack of multi-decadal datasets of growth for marine species from the Southern Hemisphere. We assessed the potential of the clam Glycymeris longior as an environmental proxy archive for the mid-latitudes of the South Atlantic Ocean, by applying sclerochronological techniques on the shells of individuals from a coastal area in Northern Patagonia, Argentina. Growth of G. longior showed a synchronous pattern, and shells were cross dated. We demonstrated that G. longior shells can be used to generate a robust multi-decadal chronology. The chronology spanned for a period of 22 years, from 1990 to 2011. This chronology has the potential to be extended, given that the maximum longevity of the analysed shells was 69 years. Significant positive correlations were found between the chronology and sea surface temperature and the Southern Annular Mode index. The sclerochronological approach performed in this study is a first step toward a long-term understanding of the links between climate and growth patterns of bivalves in temperate regions of SW Atlantic Ocean, under a long-term perspective.

A study of lead uptake and distribution in horns from lead-dosed goats using synchrotron radiation-induced micro X-ray fluorescence elemental imaging

OBJECTIVE

The principal goal of this study was to investigate the uptake and distribution of lead (Pb) in the horns of Pb-dosed goats, and to explore possible links to their historical Pb dosing records. Horn is a keratinized material that grows in discrete increments with the potential to preserve the historical record of past environmental exposures. While previous studies have leveraged this potential to examine environmental and biological phenomena in horns, Pb uptake has never been explored.

METHODS

Horns were collected post-mortem from three goats that had been previously used to produce blood lead reference materials for the New York State proficiency testing program. The animals were periodically dosed with lead acetate, administered orally in a capsule, over a 5 to 8-year period. Horn cross sections were taken from each animal and analyzed using synchrotron radiation-induced micro X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (SR-μXRF) at the Cornell High Energy Synchrotron Source (CHESS).

RESULTS

Elemental distribution maps were obtained by SR-μXRF for Pb, Ca, S, Se, and three other elements (Br, Zn and Cu), with values reported quantitatively as a mass fraction (μg/g for trace elements and mg/g for Ca and S). Accumulations of Pb were clearly visible as a series of narrow "rings" in each of the horn samples analyzed. The elements Ca, S, Br, Zn, and Cu were also detected as discrete rings within each cross-section, with Br strongly correlated with S in the samples examined. A marginal increase in Se may coincide with Pb accumulation in horn cross-sections. Annual mineralization estimates based on the relative distribution of Ca and S were used to establish a tentative timeline for horn growth, with each timeline linked to the pattern of Pb accumulation in the corresponding horn cross-section sample.

CONCLUSIONS

Following ingestion, absorbed Pb is eventually deposited into caprine horns, resulting in discrete accumulations or "rings." Elemental mapping by SR-μXRF clearly show Ca-rich layers that vary with annual periodicity, consistent with previous reports of horn mineralization. Localized enrichment of Cu, Zn, Br and S appear to coincide with the keratinized regions related to the annual growth ring pattern in horns. Spatial analysis of horns for Pb accumulation may be useful as a qualitative marker of time-resolved exposures that may reflect specific periods of acute Pb absorption.

A network of bivalve chronologies from semi-enclosed seas

Four chronologies of the bivalve species Glycymeris pilosa have been constructed along a 300 km gradient of the eastern coastal Adriatic Sea, all of which span the common period of 1982–2015. The chronologies are compared to local and remote environmental drivers suspected to influence the biology of the system, including air and seawater temperature, precipitation and freshwater discharge. The Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS), a key oceanographic feature quantified by satellite-derived absolute dynamic topography, is also compared to the chronologies. The chronologies at the two southern sites are more strongly influenced by local river discharge, while the two northern chronologies are more strongly influenced by BiOS. These results highlight the broadscale importance of BiOS to the Adriatic system as well as the heterogeneity of nearshore environmental and drivers of growth. These G. pilosa chronologies provide unique multidecadal, continuous, biological time series to better understand the ecology and fine-scale variability of the Adriatic with potential for other shallow, semi-enclosed seas.

8.2 ka event North Sea hydrography determined by bivalve shell stable isotope geochemistry

The abrupt 8.2 ka cold event has been widely described from Greenland and North Atlantic records. However, its expression in shelf seas is poorly documented, and the temporal resolution of most marine records is inadequate to precisely determine the chronology of major events. A robust hydrographical reconstruction can provide an insight on climatic reaction times to perturbations to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here we present an annually-resolved temperature and water column stratification reconstruction based on stable isotope geochemistry of Arctica islandica shells from the Fladen Ground (northern North Sea) temporally coherent with Greenland ice core records. Our age model is based on a growth increment chronology obtained from four radiometrically-dated shells covering the 8290–8100 cal BP interval. Our results indicate that a sudden sea level rise (SSLR) event-driven column stratification occurred between ages 8320–8220 cal BP. Thirty years later, cold conditions inhibited water column stratification but an eventual incursion of sub-Arctic waters into the North Sea re-established density-driven stratification. The water temperatures reached their minimum of ~3.7 °C 55 years after the SSLR. Intermittently-mixed conditions were later established when the sub-Arctic waters receded.

The revolution of crossdating in marine palaeoecology and palaeoclimatology

Over the past century, the dendrochronology technique of crossdating has been widely used to generate a global network of tree-ring chronologies that serves as a leading indicator of environmental variability and change. Only recently, however, has this same approach been applied to growth increments in calcified structures of bivalves, fish and corals in the world's oceans. As in trees, these crossdated marine chronologies are well replicated, annually resolved and absolutely dated, providing uninterrupted multi-decadal to millennial histories of ocean palaeoclimatic and palaeoecological processes. Moreover, they span an extensive geographical range, multiple trophic levels, habitats and functional types, and can be readily integrated with observational physical or biological records. Increment width is the most commonly measured parameter and reflects growth or productivity, though isotopic and elemental composition capture complementary aspects of environmental variability. As such, crossdated marine chronologies constitute powerful observational templates to establish climate-biology relationships, test hypotheses of ecosystem functioning, conduct multi-proxy reconstructions, provide constraints for numerical climate models, and evaluate the precise timing and nature of ocean-atmosphere interactions. These 'present-past-future' perspectives provide new insights into the mechanisms and feedbacks between the atmosphere and marine systems while providing indicators relevant to ecosystem-based approaches of fisheries management.

Climate-driven synchrony in growth-increment chronologies of fish from the world's largest high-elevation river

Understanding how sensitive aquatic ecosystems respond to climate change is essential for effective biodiversity conservation and management. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is one of the most globally sensitive areas to climate change with potentially serious implications for resident fish populations and aquatic food webs. However, how the growth of TP fish responds to climate change, and how this response varies with the trophic level of different species remain unknown. We established growth-increment chronologies of two important Schizothoracinae fishes that are endemic to the TP (e.g., the omnivorous Schizopygopsis younghusbandi and the carnivorous Oxygymnocypris stewartii) from the Yarlung Tsangpo River, using otolith increment width measurements and dendrochronological methods. These growth chronologies were correlated with key indicators of environmental variation (temperature, precipitation, and river discharge) to examine the potential effects of climate change. The two chronologies displayed synchronous responses to recent climate change. In this glacial-fed river, the growth of both fish species was significantly and negatively correlated with the mean annual air temperature, while it was positively but not significantly correlated with precipitation and discharge. The higher trophic level species O. stewartii was more sensitive to climate than was the lower trophic level species S. younghusbandi, with temperature variables explaining a higher proportion of growth variability in O. stewartii (64.6%) than in S. younghusbandi (46.4%). The results collectively indicate that both species are highly sensitive to climate change, which may affect fish growth by altering water environment, fish physiological fitness and food availability. This study provides further empirical evidence of the utility of growth-increment chronologies for investigating the effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems across different basins and water body types of the TP. These findings can inform conservation and management actions related to addressing climate change on the TP and other high-elevation temperate systems found worldwide.

Rising synchrony controls western North American ecosystems

Along the western margin of North America, the winter expression of the North Pacific High (NPH) strongly influences interannual variability in coastal upwelling, storm track position, precipitation, and river discharge. Coherence among these factors induces covariance among physical and biological processes across adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that over the past century the degree and spatial extent of this covariance (synchrony) has substantially increased, and is coincident with rising variance in the winter NPH. Furthermore, centuries-long blue oak (Quercus douglasii) growth chronologies sensitive to the winter NPH provide robust evidence that modern levels of synchrony are among the highest observed in the context of the last 250 years. These trends may ultimately be linked to changing impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on midlatitude ecosystems of North America. Such a rise in synchrony may destabilize ecosystems, expose populations to higher risks of extinction, and is thus a concern given the broad biological relevance of winter climate to biological systems.

Strong evidence for changing fish reproductive phenology under climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau

Phenological responses to climate change have been widely observed and have profound and lasting effects on ecosystems and biodiversity. However, compared to terrestrial ecosystems, the long-term effects of climate change on species' phenology are poorly understood in aquatic ecosystems. Understanding the long-term changes in fish reproductive phenology is essential for predicting population dynamics and for informing management strategies, but is currently hampered by the requirement for intensive field observations and larval identification. In this study, a very low-frequency sampling of juveniles and adults combined with otolith measurements (long axis length of the first annulus; LAFA) of an endemic Tibetan Plateau fish (Gymnocypris selincuoensis) was used to examine changes in reproductive phenology associated with climate changes from the 1970s to 2000s. Assigning individual fish to their appropriate calendar year class was assisted by dendrochronological methods (crossdating). The results demonstrated that LAFA was significantly and positively associated with temperature and growing season length. To separate the effects of temperature and the growing season length on LAFA growth, measurements of larval otoliths from different sites were conducted and revealed that daily increment additions were the main contributor (46.3%), while temperature contributed less (12.0%). Using constructed water-air temperature relationships and historical air temperature records, we found that the reproductive phenology of G. selincuoensis was strongly advanced in the spring during the 1970s and 1990s, while the increased growing season length in the 2000s was mainly due to a delayed onset of winter. The reproductive phenology of G. selincuoensis advanced 2.9 days per decade on average from the 1970s to 2000s, and may have effects on recruitment success and population dynamics of this species and other biota in the ecosystem via the food web. The methods used in this study are applicable for studying reproductive phenological changes across a wide range of species and ecosystems.

Using bivalve chronologies for quantifying environmental drivers in a semi-enclosed temperate sea

Annual growth increments formed in bivalve shells are increasingly used as proxies of environmental variability and change in marine ecosystems, especially at higher latitudes. Here, we document that well-replicated and exactly dated chronologies can also be developed to capture oceanographic processes in temperate and semi-enclosed seas, such as the Mediterranean. A chronology is constructed for Glycymeris pilosa from a shallow embayment of the northern Adriatic and extends from 1979 to 2016. The chronology significantly (p < 0.05) and positively correlates to winter sea surface temperatures, but negatively correlates to summer temperatures, which suggests that extreme winter lows and extreme summer highs may be limiting to growth. However, the strongest and most consistent relationships are negative correlations with an index of the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS) for which positive values indicate the inflow of the ultraoligotrophic Eastern Mediterranean waters to the Adriatic. In contrast, the substantial freshwater flows that discharge into the Adriatic do not correlate to the bivalve chronology, emphasizing the importance of remote oceanographic processes to growth at this highly coastal site. Overall, this study underscores the potential of bivalve chronologies to capture biologically relevant, local- to regional-scale patterns of ocean circulation in mid-latitude, temperate systems.

Environmental factors exert strong control over the climate-growth relationships of Picea abies in Central Europe

The growth response of trees to changing climate is frequently discussed as increasing temperatures and more severe droughts become major risks for forest ecosystems. However, the ability of trees to cope with the changing climate and the effects of other environmental factors on climate-growth relationships are still poorly understood. There is thus an increasing need to understand the ability of individual trees to cope with changing climate in various environments. To improve the current understanding, a large tree-ring network covering the whole area of the Czech Republic (in 7×7km grids) was utilized to investigate how the climate-growth relationships of Norway spruce are affected by 1) various geographical variables, 2) changing levels of acidic deposition, 3) soil characteristics and 4) age, tree diameter and neighbourhood competition. The period from 1930 to 2013 was divided into four, 21-year long intervals of differing levels of acidic deposition, which peaked in the 1972-1993 period. Our individual-based, spatiotemporal, multivariate analyses revealed that spruce growth was mostly affected by drought and warm summers. Drought plays the most important negative role at lower altitudes, while the positive effect of higher temperature was identified for trees at higher altitudes. Increased levels of acidic deposition, together with geographical variables, were identified as the most important factors affecting climate-growth association. Tree age, tree size and soil characteristics also significantly modulate climate-growth relationships. The importance of all environmental variables on climate-growth relationships was suppressed by acidic deposition during periods when this was at a high level; growth was significantly more enhanced by spring and summer temperatures during these periods. Our results suggest that spruce will undergo significant growth reduction under the predicted climate changes, especially at the lower altitudes which lie outside of its natural range.