Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process-based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear-edges

Under Stress: Searching for Genes Involved in the Response of Abies pinsapo Boiss to Climate Change

Currently, Mediterranean forests are experiencing the deleterious effects of global warming, which mainly include increased temperatures and decreased precipitation in the region. Relict Abies pinsapo fir forests, endemic in the southern Iberian Peninsula, are especially sensitive to these recent environmental disturbances, and identifying the genes involved in the response of this endangered tree species to climate-driven stresses is of paramount importance for mitigating their effects. Genomic resources for A. pinsapo allow for the analysis of candidate genes reacting to warming and aridity in their natural habitats. Several members of the complex gene families encoding late embryogenesis abundant proteins (LEAs) and heat shock proteins (HSPs) have been found to exhibit differential expression patterns between wet and dry seasons when samples from distinct geographical locations and dissimilar exposures to the effects of climate change were analyzed. The observed changes were more perceptible in the roots of trees, particularly in declining forests distributed at lower altitudes in the more vulnerable mountains. These findings align with previous studies and lay the groundwork for further research on the molecular level. Molecular and genomic approaches offer valuable insights for mitigating climate stress and safeguarding this endangered conifer.

Negative interaction effect of heat and drought stress at the warm end of species distribution

Geographic range limits of species are often a reflection of their ecological niche limits. In many organisms, important niche limits that coincide with distribution limits are warm and warm-dry conditions. We investigated the effects of heat and drought, as they can occur at the warm end of distribution. In a greenhouse experiment, we raised North American Arabidopsis lyrata from the centre of its distribution as well as from low- and high-latitude limits under average and extreme conditions. We assessed plant growth and development, as well as leaf and root functional traits, and tested for a decline in performance and selection acting on growth, leaf, and root traits. Drought and heat, when applied alone, lowered plant performance, while combined stress caused synergistically negative effects. Plants from high latitudes did not survive under combined stress, whereas plants originating from central and low latitudes had low to moderate survival, indicating divergent adaptation. Traits positively associated with survival under drought, with or without heat, were delayed and slowed growth, though plastic responses in these traits were generally antagonistic to the direction of selection. In line, higher tolerance of stress in southern populations did not involve aspects of growth but rather a higher root-to-shoot ratio and thinner leaves. In conclusion, combined heat and drought, as can occur at southern range edges and presumably more so under global change, seriously impede the long-term persistence of A. lyrata, even though they impose selection and populations may adapt, though under likely interference by considerable maladaptive plasticity.

Major tree species of Central European forests differ in their proportion of positive, negative, and nonstationary growth trends

Temperate forests are undergoing significant transformations due to the influence of climate change, including varying responses of different tree species to increasing temperature and drought severity. To comprehensively understand the full range of growth responses, representative datasets spanning extensive site and climatic gradients are essential. This study utilizes tree-ring data from 550 sites from the temperate forests of Czechia to assess growth trends of six dominant Central European tree species (European beech, Norway spruce, Scots pine, silver fir, sessile and pedunculate oak) over 1990-2014. By modeling mean growth series for each species and site, and employing principal component analysis, we identified the predominant growth trends. Over the study period, linear growth trends were evident across most sites (56% increasing, 32% decreasing, and 10% neutral). The proportion of sites with stationary positive trends increased from low toward high elevations, whereas the opposite was true for the stationary negative trends. Notably, within the middle range of their distribution (between 500 and 700 m a.s.l.), Norway spruce and European beech exhibited a mix of positive and negative growth trends. While Scots pine growth trends showed no clear elevation-based pattern, silver fir and oaks displayed consistent positive growth trends regardless of site elevation, indicating resilience to the ongoing warming. We demonstrate divergent growth trajectories across space and among species. These findings are particularly important as recent warming has triggered a gradual shift in the elevation range of optimal growth conditions for most tree species and has also led to a decoupling of growth trends between lowlands and mountain areas. As a result, further future shifts in the elevation range and changes in species diversity of European temperate forests can be expected.

Modeling potential distribution and above-ground biomass of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests in the Inner Anatolian Region, Türkiye

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) holds a substantial position as a tree species designated for biomass energy within European forests, covering a significant part of Türkiye's forests. We used the machine learning technique, namely, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), to estimate the suitable areas for Scots pine and to investigate its potential future distribution under various climate change scenarios in Inner Anatolian Region, Türkiye. The distribution data of Scots pine was utilized, and a set of 20 variables was chosen from spectral, topographic, and bioclimatic datasets to train the MaxEnt model. A map depicting the potential distribution of Scots pine in the area was generated, and alterations in its spatial distribution under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios were predicted. The results showed that the most effective factors for the distribution of Scots pine in the region were normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), Red band of the imagery, and Bio19 variables, and the contribution percentages were 45.6%, 18.5%, and 18.1%, respectively. Current conditions have indicated that 81.11% of the region is not suitable for Scots pine. Highly suitable areas for Scots pine constituted 0.88% of the total area in the east and southeast parts of the region. Considering the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, it has been determined that there may be a partial increase in highly suitable areas. The above-ground biomass (AGB) data generated based on potential distribution areas were predicted between 0.04 and 168.76 t ha-1, and the areas with dense biomass over 120 t ha-1 were identified in the west, north, and northeast parts of the region. While actual AGB of Scots pine was 6.92 MT, its potential AGB was estimated 125.93 MT in total area. The difference may well be attributed to the wide potential distribution of Scots pine stands in the area apart from the current forest lands. Nevertheless, this research contributes to the holistic management of forests and provides substantial values for formulating well-suited silvicultural interventions, developing sustainable forest management strategies, and furthering research aimed at estimating biomass reserves.

God save the queen! How and why the dominant evergreen species of the Mediterranean Basin is declining?

Quercus ilex may be considered the queen tree of the Mediterranean Basin, dominating coastal forest areas up to 2000 m above sea level at some sites. However, an increase in holm oak decline has been observed in the last decade. In this review, we analysed the current literature to answer the following questions: what are the traits that allow holm oak to thrive in the Mediterranean environment, and what are the main factors that are currently weakening this species? In this framework, we attempt to answer these questions by proposing a triangle as a graphical summary. The first vertex focuses on the main morpho-anatomical, biochemical and physiological traits that allow holm oak to dominate Mediterranean forests. The other two vertices consider abiotic and biotic stressors that are closely related to holm oak decline. Here, we discuss the current evidence of holm oak responses to abiotic and biotic stresses and propose a possible solution to its decline through adequate forest management choices, thus allowing the species to maintain its ecological domain.

The energy-water limitation threshold explains divergent drought responses in tree growth, needle length, and stable isotope ratios

Predicted increases in extreme droughts will likely cause major shifts in carbon sequestration and forest composition. Although growth declines during drought are widely documented, an increasing number of studies have reported both positive and negative responses to the same drought. These divergent growth patterns may reflect thresholds (i.e., nonlinear responses) promoted by changes in the dominant climatic constraints on tree growth. Here we tested whether stemwood growth exhibited linear or nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation and whether stemwood growth thresholds co-occurred with multiple thresholds in source and sink processes that limit tree growth. We extracted 772 tree cores, 1398 needle length records, and 1075 stable isotope samples from 27 sites across whitebark pine's (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) climatic niche in the Sierra Nevada. Our results indicated that a temperature threshold in stemwood growth occurred at 8.4°C (7.12-9.51°C; estimated using fall-spring maximum temperature). This threshold was significantly correlated with thresholds in foliar growth, as well as carbon (δ13 C) and nitrogen (δ15 N) stable isotope ratios, that emerged during drought. These co-occurring thresholds reflected the transition between energy- and water-limited tree growth (i.e., the E-W limitation threshold). This transition likely mediated carbon and nutrient cycling, as well as important differences in growth-defense trade-offs and drought adaptations. Furthermore, whitebark pine growing in energy-limited regions may continue to experience elevated growth in response to climate change. The positive effect of warming, however, may be offset by growth declines in water-limited regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of the recently listed whitebark pine species in the Sierra Nevada.

Is survival of Himalayan Cedar (Cedrus deodara) threatened? An evaluation based on predicted scenarios of its growth trend under future climate change

Global warming is likely to become one of the significant drivers of forest losses in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH) during the 21^st century. Better understanding of how forest ecosystem will respond to global warming requires a precise knowledge of site and species specific responses to climate change. We applied dendrochronological technique to quantify and predict future growth trend of Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara), a tree of high commercial importance, and explored its spatial growth variability under two different climatic regimes from 17 deodar sites in the HKH. Of the two climate regimes, one is dominated by the monsoon rainfall and the other by the westerly disturbances. Analysis of tree ring width and climate (monthly temperature and precipitation) data reveals that the spring (March-May) temperature and precipitation affect the growth of deodar negatively and positively, respectively. We used Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression model to forecast future growth of deodar by taking an ensemble of 40 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Predicted growth trends indicate the decline between 34 % and 38 % under RCP 4.5, and between 29 % and 32 % under RCP 8.5 scenarios, for the low and mid latitude sites. In contrast, a moderate increase in growth was observed in high latitude sites under the both climate scenarios. The study shows more drought stress to deodar trees growing in monsoon areas in mid-and low-latitude sites where less snow melt and low precipitation during the spring season are predicted to increase evapotranspiration. In comparison, in the higher latitude sites where there is a high snowfall due to western disturbances, the growth of deodar is predicted to increase. These findings may be used to take suitable migratory steps for the conservation of deodar in the HKH region.

Weak genetic differentiation but strong climate-induced selective pressure toward the rear edge of mountain pine in north-eastern Spain

Local differentiation at distribution limits may influence species' adaptive capacity to environmental changes. However, drivers, such gene flow and local selection, are still poorly understood. We focus on the role played by range limits in mountain forests to test the hypothesis that relict tree populations are subjected to genetic differentiation and local adaptation. Two alpine treelines of mountain pine (Pinus uncinata Ram. ex DC) were investigated in the Spanish Pyrenees. Further, an isolated relict population forming the species' southernmost distribution limit in north-eastern Spain was also investigated. Using genotyping by sequencing, a genetic matrix conformed by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was obtained. This matrix was used to perform genotype-environment and genotype-phenotype associations, as well as to model risk of non-adaptedness. Increasing climate seasonality appears as an essential element in the interpretation of SNPs subjected to selective pressures. Genetic differentiations were overall weak. The differences in leaf mass area and radial growth rate, as well as the identification of several SNPs subjected to selective pressures, exceeded neutral predictions of differentiation among populations. Despite genetic drift might prevail in the isolated population, the Fst values (0.060 and 0.066) showed a moderate genetic drift and Nm values (3.939 and 3.555) indicate the presence of gene flow between the relict population and both treelines. Nonetheless, the SNPs subjected to selection pressures provide evidences of possible selection in treeline ecotones. Persistence in range boundaries seems to involve several selective pressures in species' traits, which were significantly related to enhanced drought seasonality at the limit of P. uncinata distribution range. We conclude that gene flow is unlikely to constrain adaptation in the P. uncinata rear edge, although this species shows vulnerability to future climate change scenarios involving warmer and drier conditions.

Blue is the fashion in Mediterranean pines: New drought signals from tree-ring density in southern Europe

Long-term records of tree-ring width (TRW), latewood maximum density (MXD) and blue intensity (BI) measurements on conifers have been largely used to develop high-resolution temperature reconstructions in cool temperate forests. However, the potential of latewood blue intensity (LWBI), less commonly used earlywood blue intensity (EWBI), and delta (difference between EWBI and LWBI, dBI) blue intensity in Mediterranean tree species is still unexplored. Here we developed BI chronologies in moist-elevation limits of the most southwestern European distribution of Pinus nigra subsp. salzmanii Arnold. We tested whether BI variables derived from tree rings of black pine are better proxies than ring-width variables to reconstruct long-term changes in climatic factors and water availability. For this we applied correlations and regression analyses with daily and monthly climate data, a spatial and temporal drought index (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index-SPEI) and Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD), as well as atmospheric circulation patterns: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO). We found a positive relation between black pine growth (RW) and temperature during the winter preceding the growing season. Among all variables LWBI and dBI were found to be more sensitive than TRW to SPEI at low-elevation site, with EWBI series containing an opposite climatic signal. LWBI and dBI were significantly related to June and September precipitation at high-elevation site. Winter VPD was related with higher EWI and LWI series, whereas dBI and EWBI were related with January SOI and February NAO. We confirm the potential of long-term dBI series to reconstruct climate in drought-prone regions. This novel study in combination with other wood anatomical measurements has wide implications for further use of BI to understand and reconstruct environmental changes in Mediterranean conifer forests.

Ecological and methodological drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth response to climate

Radial tree growth is sensitive to environmental conditions, making observed growth increments an important indicator of climate change effects on forest growth. However, unprecedented climate variability could lead to non-stationarity, that is, a decoupling of tree growth responses from climate over time, potentially inducing biases in climate reconstructions and forest growth projections. Little is known about whether and to what extent environmental conditions, species, and model type and resolution affect the occurrence and magnitude of non-stationarity. To systematically assess potential drivers of non-stationarity, we compiled tree-ring width chronologies of two conifer species, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, distributed across cold, dry, and mixed climates. We analyzed 147 sites across the Europe including the distribution margins of these species as well as moderate sites. We calibrated four numerical models (linear vs. non-linear, daily vs. monthly resolution) to simulate growth chronologies based on temperature and soil moisture data. Climate-growth models were tested in independent verification periods to quantify their non-stationarity, which was assessed based on bootstrapped transfer function stability tests. The degree of non-stationarity varied between species, site climatic conditions, and models. Chronologies of P. sylvestris showed stronger non-stationarity compared with Picea abies stands with a high degree of stationarity. Sites with mixed climatic signals were most affected by non-stationarity compared with sites sampled at cold and dry species distribution margins. Moreover, linear models with daily resolution exhibited greater non-stationarity compared with monthly-resolved non-linear models. We conclude that non-stationarity in climate-growth responses is a multifactorial phenomenon driven by the interaction of site climatic conditions, tree species, and methodological features of the modeling approach. Given the existence of multiple drivers and the frequent occurrence of non-stationarity, we recommend that temporal non-stationarity rather than stationarity should be considered as the baseline model of climate-growth response for temperate forests.

Long-term forest monitoring reveals constant mortality rise in European forests

European forests are an important source for timber production, human welfare, income, protection and biodiversity. During the last two decades, Europe has experienced a number of droughts which have been exceptional within the last 500 years, both in terms of duration and intensity. These droughts seem to leave remarkable imprints on the mortality dynamics of European forests. However, systematic observations on tree decline, with emphasis on a single species, has been scarce so far so that our understanding of mortality dynamics and drought occurrence is still limited at a continental scale. Here, we make use of the ICP Forest crown defoliation dataset, permitting us to retrospectively monitor tree mortality for all major conifers, major broadleaves, as well as a pooled dataset of minor tree species in Europe. In total, we analysed more than three million observations gathered during the last 25 years and employed a high-resolution drought index which can assess soil moisture anomaly based on a hydrological water-balance and runoff model. We found overall and species-specific increasing trends in mortality rates, accompanied by decreasing soil moisture. A generalized linear mixed model identified a previous-year soil moisture anomaly as the most important driver of mortality patterns in conifers, but the response was not uniform across the numerous analysed plots. We conclude that mortality patterns in European forests are currently reaching a concerning upward trend which could be further accelerated by global change-type droughts in the near future.

Clonality drives structural patterns and shapes the community assemblage of the Mediterranean Fagus sylvatica subalpine belt

Past anthropogenic disturbances lowered the altitudinal distribution of the Mediterranean Fagus sylvatica forests below 2,000 m a.s.l. Accordingly, our current understanding of the southern distribution range of F. sylvatica forests is restricted to managed stands below this elevation, neglecting relic forests growing above. This study has shed light on the structure and species assemblage of an unmanaged relict subalpine F. sylvatica stand growing within the core of its southernmost glacial refugia and at its highest species range elevation limit (2,140 m a.s.l.) in southern Apennines (Italy). Here, tree biometric attributes and understory species abundances were assessed in eight permanent plots systematically positioned from 1,650 to 2,130 m a.s.l. In the subalpine belt, F. sylvatica had formed a dense clonal stem population that was layered downward on the steepest slopes. The density and spatial aggregation of the stems were increased, while their stature and crown size were decreased. Above 2,000 m, changes in tree growth patterns, from upright single-stemmed to procumbent multi-stemmed, and canopy layer architecture, with crowns packed and closer to the floor, were allowed for the persistence of understory herbaceous species of biogeographic interest. Clonal layering represents an adaptive regeneration strategy for the subalpine belt environmental constraints not previously recognized in managed Mediterranean F. sylvatica forests. The clonal structure and unique species assemblage of this relic forest highlight the value of its inclusion in the priority areas networks, representing a long-term management strategy of emblematic glacial and microclimatic refugia.

Climate sensitivity of seasonal radial growth in young stands of Mexican conifers

Alteration of forest by climate change and human activities modify the growth response of trees to temperature and moisture. Growth trends of young forests with even-aged stands recruited recently when the climate became warmer and drier are not well known. We analyze the radial growth response of young conifer trees (37-63 years old) to climatic parameters and drought stress employing Pearson correlations and the Vaganov-Shashkin Lite (VS-Lite) model. This study uses tree rings of six species of conifer trees (Pinus teocote, Pinus pseudostrobus, Pinus pinceana, Pinus montezumae, Pinus ayacahuite, and Taxodium mucronatum) collected from young forests with diverse growth conditions in northern and central Mexico. Seasonal ring growth and earlywood width (EW) were modeled as a function of temperature and soil moisture using the VS-Lite model. Wet and cool conditions in the previous winter and current spring enhance ring growth and EW production, mainly in sensitive species from dry sites (P. teocote, P. pseudostrobus, P. pinceana, and P. montezumae), whereas the growth of species from mesic sites (P. ayacahuite and T. mucronatum) shows little responsiveness to soil moisture. In P. ayacahuite and T. mucronatum, latewood growth is enhanced by warm summer conditions. The VS-Lite model shows that low soil moisture during April and May constrains growth in the four sensitive species, particularly in P. pinceana, the species dominant in the most xeric sites. Assessing seasonal ring growth and combining its response to climate with process-based growth models could complement xylogenesis data. Such framework should be widely applied, given the predicted warming and its impact on young forests.

The role of nutritional impairment in carbon-water balance of silver fir drought-induced dieback

Rear-edge populations at the xeric distribution limit of tree species are particularly vulnerable to forest dieback triggered by drought. This is the case of silver fir (Abies alba) forests located in Southwestern Europe. While silver fir drought-induced dieback patterns have been previously explored, information on the role played by nutritional impairment is lacking despite its potential interactions with tree carbon-water balances. We performed a comparative analysis of radial growth, intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), oxygen isotopes (δ¹⁸ O) and nutrient concentrations in leaves of declining (DD) and non-declining (ND) trees in silver fir in four forests in the Spanish Pyrenees. We also evaluated the relationships among dieback predisposition, intraspecific trait variation (wood density and leaf traits) and rhizosphere soil physical-chemical properties. The onset of growth decline in DD trees occurred more than two decades ago, and they subsequently showed low growth resilience against droughts. The DD trees presented consistently lower foliar concentrations of nutrients such as P, K, Cu and Ni than ND trees. The strong effects of foliar nutrient status on growth resilience indices support the key role played by mineral nutrition in tree functioning and growth before, during and after drought. In contrast, variability in wood density and leaf morphological traits, as well as soil properties, showed weak relationships with tree nutritional status and drought performance. At the low elevation, warmer sites, DD trees showed stronger climate-growth relationships and lower δ¹⁸ O than ND trees. The uncoupling between iWUE and δ¹⁸ O, together with the positive correlations between P and K leaf concentrations and δ¹⁸ O, point to deeper soil/bedrock water sources and vertical decoupling between nutrient and water uptake in DD trees. This study provides novel insights into the mechanisms driving silver fir dieback and highlights the need to incorporate tree nutrition into forest dieback studies.

Declines in canopy greenness and tree growth are caused by combined climate extremes during drought-induced dieback

Several dieback episodes triggered by droughts are revealing the high vulnerability of Mediterranean forests, manifested as declines in growth, increased defoliation, and rising mortality rates. Understanding forest responses to such climate extreme events is of high priority for predicting their future vegetation dynamics. We examined how remotely sensed measures of vegetation activity (NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and radial growth (BAI, basal area increment) responded to climate extreme events. We considered tree (Pinus sylvestris, Quercus pubescens, Quercus frainetto) and shrub (Juniperus phoenicea) populations from Italy and Spain showing recent dieback phenomena. Two components of drought, namely elevated atmospheric demand (VPD, vapor pressure deficit) and low soil moisture were analyzed in nearby stands showing or not showing dieback symptoms. Dieback stands exhibited lower NDVI values than non-dieback stands. NDVI and BAI were positively related in all sites except for the dieback stand of Q. frainetto that was negatively related. Such NDVI-BAI linkages were related to specific time windows, which could be useful for identifying when climatic conditions have the greatest influence on vegetation. Growth decline occurred in response to increasing VPD, but responses differed among species. J. phoenicea was the most negatively impacted by higher VPD, whereas oaks responded to soil moisture. A high VPD was related to stronger growth reduction in dieback P. sylvestris trees regardless of soil moisture changes. We highlighted that coupling between proxies of forest productivity (NDVI, BAI) allows better understanding and forecasting of drought-induced dieback phenomena in forests and shrublands. Scaling up from tree to stand levels might be feasible when using the maximum growing season NDVI, which can be applied for retrospective modeling of the impact of drought stress on forest productivity and tree growth.

An Assessment of Agricultural Vulnerability in the Context of Global Climate Change: A Case Study in Ha Tinh Province, Vietnam

Climate change is considered a major challenge of mankind in the 21st century. Agriculture is known as one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. This study aims to evaluate agricultural vulnerability to climate change in Ha Tinh province. The agricultural vulnerability zoning map is presented by using the index method with eight influential indicators across three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Agricultural vulnerability is quantified and classified into five levels, namely very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The results indicated that Ha Tinh’s agriculture was heavily affected by climate change, and the most vulnerable area is found in Huong Khe district and Thach Ha district. People and their activities play an important role in mitigating the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. The results obtained from this study provide useful information for planning and determining guidelines to help farmers in the area.

Mediterranean old-growth forests exhibit resistance to climate warming

Old-growth mountain forests represent an ideal setting for studying long-term impacts of climate change. We studied the few remnants of old-growth forests located within the Pollino massif (southern Italy) to evaluate how the growth of conspecific young and old trees responded to climate change. We investigated two conifer species (Abies alba and Pinus leucodermis) and two hardwood species (Fagus sylvatica and Quercus cerris). We sampled one stand per species along an altitudinal gradient, ranging from a drought-limited low-elevation hardwood forest to a cold-limited subalpine pine forest. We used a dendrochronological approach to characterize the long-term growth dynamics of old (age > 120 years) versus young (age < 120 years) trees. Younger trees grew faster than their older conspecifics during their juvenile stage, regardless of species. Linear mixed effect models were used to quantify recent growth trends (1950-2015) and responses to climate for old and young trees. Climate sensitivity, expressed as radial growth responses to climate during the last three decades, partially differed between species because high spring temperatures enhanced conifer growth, whereas F. sylvatica growth was negatively affected by warmer spring conditions. Furthermore, tree growth was negatively impacted by summer drought in all species. Climate sensitivity differed between young and old trees, with younger trees tending to be more sensitive in P. leucodermis and A. alba, whereas older F. sylvatica trees were more sensitive. In low-elevation Q. cerris stands, limitation of growth due to drought was not related to tree age, suggesting symmetric water competition. We found evidence for a fast-growth trend in young individuals compared with that in their older conspecifics. Notably, old trees tended to have relatively stable growth rates, showing remarkable resistance to climate warming. These responses to climate change should be recognized when forecasting the future dynamics of old-growth forests for their sustainable management.

Drought Drives Growth and Mortality Rates in Three Pine Species under Mediterranean Conditions

Drought constrains tree growth in regions with seasonal water deficit where growth decline can lead to tree death. This has been observed in regions such as the western Mediterranean Basin, which is a climate-warming hotspot. However, we lack information on intra- and inter-specific comparisons of growth rates and responses to water shortage in these hotspots, considering tree species with different drought tolerance. We sampled several sites located in north-eastern Spain showing dieback and high mortality rates of three pine species (Pinus sylvestris, Pinus pinaster, Pinus halepensis). We dated death years and reconstructed the basal area increment of coexisting living and recently dead trees using tree ring data. Then, we calculated bootstrapped Pearson correlations between a drought index and growth. Finally, we used linear mixed-effects models to determine differences in growth trends and the response to drought of living and dead trees. Mortality in P. sylvestris and P. pinaster peaked in response to the 2012 and 2017 droughts, respectively, and in sites located near the species’ xeric distribution limits. In P. halepensis, tree deaths occurred most years. Dead trees showed lower growth rates than living trees in five out of six sites. There was a strong growth drop after the 1980s when climate shifted towards warmer and drier conditions. Tree growth responded positively to wet climate conditions, particularly in the case of living trees. Accordingly, growth divergence between living and dead trees during dry periods reflected cumulative drought impacts on trees. If aridification continues, tree drought mortality would increase, particularly in xeric distribution limits of tree species.

Differences in temperature sensitivity and drought recovery between natural stands and plantations of conifers are species-specific

Forests are being impacted by climate and land-use changes which have altered their productivity and growth. Understanding how tree growth responds to climate in natural and planted stands may provide valuable information to prepare management in sight of climate change. Plantations are expected to show higher sensitivity to climate and lower post-drought resilience than natural stands, due to their lower compositional and structural diversity. We reconstructed and compared the radial growth of six conifers with contrasting ecological and climatic niches (Abies pinsapo, Cedrus atlantica, Pinus sylvestris, Pinus nigra, Pinus pinea, Pinus pinaster) in natural and planted stands subjected to seasonal drought in 40 sites. We quantified the relationships between individual growth variability and climate variables (temperature, precipitation and the SPEI drought index), as well as post-drought resilience. Elevated precipitation during the previous autumn-winter and current spring to early summer enhanced growth in both natural and planted stands of all species. Temperature effects on growth were less consistent: only plantations of A. pinsapo, C. atlantica, P. nigra, P. pinea, P. sylvetris and a natural stand of P. nigra showed negative impacts of summer temperature on growth. Drought reduced growth of all species in both plantations and natural stands, with variations in the temporal scale of the response. Drought constrained growth more severely in natural stands than in plantations of C. atlantica, P. pinaster and P. nigra, whereas the inverse pattern was found for A. pinsapo. Resilience to drought varied between species: natural stands of A. pinsapo, C. atlantica and P. pinaster recovered faster than plantations, while P. pinea plantations recovered faster than natural stands. Overall, plantations did not consistently show a higher sensitivity to climate and a lower capacity to recover after drought. Therefore, plantations are potential tools for mitigating climate warming.

Modeling Climate Impacts on Tree Growth to Assess Tree Vulnerability to Drought During Forest Dieback

Forest dieback because of drought is a global phenomenon threatening particular tree populations. Particularly vulnerable stands are usually located in climatically stressing locations such as xeric sites subjected to seasonal drought. These tree populations show a pronounced loss of vitality, growth decline, and high mortality in response to extreme climate events such as heat waves and droughts. However, dieback events do not uniformly affect stands, with some trees showing higher symptoms of drought vulnerability than other neighboring conspecifics. In this study, we investigated if trees showing different vulnerabilities to dieback showed lower growth rates (Grs) and higher sensitivities to the climate in the past using dendroecology and the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) process-based growth model. We studied two Pinus pinaster stands with contrasting Grs showing recent dieback in the Iberian System, north-eastern Spain. We compared coexisting declining (D) and non-declining (ND) trees with crown defoliation values above and below the 50% threshold, respectively. The mean growth rate was lower in D than in ND trees in the two stands. The two vigor classes showed a growth divergence prior to the dieback onset and different responsiveness to climate. The ND trees were more responsive to changes in spring water balance and soil moisture than D trees, indicating a loss of growth responsiveness to the climate in stressed trees. Such an interaction between water availability and vigor was reflected by the VS-model simulations, which provided evidence for the observation that growth was mainly limited by low soil moisture in both sites. Such an interaction between water availability and vigor was reflected by the VS-model simulations, which provided evidence for the observation that growth was mainly limited by low soil moisture in both sites. The presented comparisons indicated different stand vulnerabilities to drought contingent on-site conditions. Further research should investigate the role played by environmental conditions and individual features such as access to soil water or hydraulic traits and implement them in process-based growth models to better forecast dieback.

Run to the hills: Forest growth responsiveness to drought increased at higher elevation during the late 20th century

Climate warming is expected to enhance forest growth in cold-limited biomes while triggering reductions in drought-limited biomes. However, as temperature raises, it is unclear how temperature- and drought-growth couplings shift across elevation gradients in different biomes. We still lack comprehensive analyses on how altitude modulates the influence of temperature and drought on tree growth during the second half of the 20th century when climate warming accelerated. We compared the worldwide responses of tree growth (RWI, ring-width indices) to two of its major climatic constraints, growing-season minimum temperatures and drought (SPEI index), across biomes and elevation gradients during two periods with different warming rates (1960-1980 vs. 1980-2000). We found a decrease in the correlations of minimum temperatures with growth, but a strengthening of drought-growth relationships. However, these patterns varied across biomes because correlations between growth and temperature decreased in temperate forests and woodland shrubland, while correlations between growth and SPEI increased in boreal forests and decreased in temperate forests. Differences in growth responsiveness to climate between the two periods were more marked for mid-latitude forests situated between 1200 and 1600 m. The slopes of the relationships between growth-temperature correlations and elevation decreased in late spring and midsummer. The slopes of the relationships between growth-drought correlations and elevation increased in temperate forests and woodland shrubland suggesting that drought impacts are "climbing" in these biomes. Temperature controls on forest growth are relaxing as the climate warms, while drought is becoming a more significant constraint for tree growth, particularly for mid-elevation forests and in drought-prone woodland and shrubland. The strengthening of drought-growth coupling should be considered in vegetation models to reduce the uncertainty on forest climate mitigation.

Drought, axe and goats. More variable and synchronized growth forecasts worsening dieback in Moroccan Atlas cedar forests

Understanding how climate warming and land-use changes determine the vulnerability of forests to drought is critical. However, we still lack: (i) robust quantifications of long-term growth changes during aridification processes, (ii) links between growth decline, changes in forest cover, stand structure and soil conditions, and (iii) forecasts of growth variability to projected climate warming. We investigated tree-ring records over the past 400-700 years, quantified changes in grazing area and forest cover during the 20th century, sampled current stand structure, and analyzed soil organic carbon δ¹³C and total nitrogen δ¹⁵N of Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica (Endl.) Manetti ex Carrière) Moroccan forests to characterize their dieback. Atlas cedar forests experienced massive dieback after the 1970s, particularly in the xeric High Atlas region. Forest cover increased in the less xeric regions (Middle Atlas and Rif) by almost 20%, while it decreased about 18% in the High Atlas, where soil δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N showed evidences of grazing. Growth declined and became more variable in response to recent droughts. The relative growth reduction (54%) was higher in the Middle Atlas than elsewhere (Rif, 32%; High Atlas, 36%). Growth synchrony between forests located within the Middle and High Atlas regions increased after the 1970s. Simulations based on a worst-case emission scenario and rapid warming forecast a stronger limitation of growth by low soil moisture in all regions, but particularly in the Middle Atlas and after the mid-21st century. Climate warming is expected to strengthen growth synchronization preceding dieback of conifer forests in xeric regions. The likelihood of similar dieback episodes is further exacerbated by historical degradation of these forests.

Climate Differently Impacts the Growth of Coexisting Trees and Shrubs under Semi-Arid Mediterranean Conditions

Background and Objectives—Coexisting tree and shrub species will have to withstand more arid conditions as temperatures keep rising in the Mediterranean Basin. However, we still lack reliable assessments on how climate and drought affect the radial growth of tree and shrub species at intra- and interannual time scales under semi-arid Mediterranean conditions. Materials and Methods—We investigated the growth responses to climate of four co-occurring gymnosperms inhabiting semi-arid Mediterranean sites in northeastern Spain: two tree species (Aleppo pine, Pinus halepensis Mill.; Spanish juniper, Juniperus thurifera L.) and two shrubs (Phoenicean juniper, Juniperus phoenicea L.; Ephedra nebrodensis Tineo ex Guss.). First, we quantified the intra-annual radial-growth rates of the four species by periodically sampling wood samples during one growing season. Second, we quantified the climate–growth relationships at an interannual scale at two sites with different soil water availability by using dendrochronology. Third, we simulated growth responses to temperature and soil moisture using the forward, process-based Vaganov‒Shashkin (VS-Lite) growth model to disentangle the main climatic drivers of growth. Results—The growth of all species peaked in spring to early summer (May–June). The pine and junipers grew after the dry summer, i.e., they showed a bimodal growth pattern. Prior wet winter conditions leading to high soil moisture before cambium reactivation in spring enhanced the growth of P. halepensis at dry sites, whereas the growth of both junipers and Ephedra depended more on high spring–summer soil moisture. The VS-Lite model identified these different influences of soil moisture on growth in tree and shrub species. Conclusions—Our approach (i) revealed contrasting growth dynamics of co-existing tree and shrub species under semi-arid Mediterranean conditions and (ii) provided novel insights on different responses as a function of growth habits in similar drought-prone regions.

Forward Modeling Reveals Multidecadal Trends in Cambial Kinetics and Phenology at Treeline

Significant alterations of cambial activity might be expected due to climate warming, leading to growing season extension and higher growth rates especially in cold-limited forests. However, assessment of climate-change-driven trends in intra-annual wood formation suffers from the lack of direct observations with a timespan exceeding a few years. We used the Vaganov-Shashkin process-based model to: (i) simulate daily resolved numbers of cambial and differentiating cells; and (ii) develop chronologies of the onset and termination of specific phases of cambial phenology during 1961-2017. We also determined the dominant climatic factor limiting cambial activity for each day. To asses intra-annual model validity, we used 8 years of direct xylogenesis monitoring from the treeline region of the Krkonoše Mts. (Czechia). The model exhibits high validity in case of spring phenological phases and a seasonal dynamics of tracheid production, but its precision declines for estimates of autumn phenological phases and growing season duration. The simulations reveal an increasing trend in the number of tracheids produced by cambium each year by 0.42 cells/year. Spring phenological phases (onset of cambial cell growth and tracheid enlargement) show significant shifts toward earlier occurrence in the year (for 0.28-0.34 days/year). In addition, there is a significant increase in simulated growth rates during entire growing season associated with the intra-annual redistribution of the dominant climatic controls over cambial activity. Results suggest that higher growth rates at treeline are driven by (i) temperature-stimulated intensification of spring cambial kinetics, and (ii) decoupling of summer growth rates from the limiting effect of low summer temperature due to higher frequency of climatically optimal days. Our results highlight that the cambial kinetics stimulation by increasing spring and summer temperatures and shifting spring phenology determine the recent growth trends of treeline ecosystems. Redistribution of individual climatic factors controlling cambial activity during the growing season questions the temporal stability of climatic signal of cold forest chronologies under ongoing climate change.

Biogeographic, Atmospheric, and Climatic Factors Influencing Tree Growth in Mediterranean Aleppo Pine Forests

There is a lack of knowledge on how tree species respond to climatic constraints like water shortages and related atmospheric patterns across broad spatial and temporal scales. These assessments are needed to project which populations will better tolerate or respond to global warming across the tree species distribution range. Warmer and drier conditions have been forecasted for the Mediterranean Basin, where Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) is the most widely distributed conifer in dry sites. This species shows plastic growth responses to climate, being particularly sensitive to drought. We evaluated how 32 Aleppo pine forests responded to climate during the second half of the 20th century by using dendrochronology. Climatic constraints of radial growth were inferred by fitting the Vaganov–Shashkin (VS-Lite) growth model to ring-width data from our Aleppo pine forest network. Our findings reported that Aleppo pine growth decreased and showed the highest common coherence among trees in dry, continental sites located in southeastern and eastern inland Spain and Algeria. In contrast, growth increased in wetter sites located in northeastern Spain. Overall, across the Aleppo pine network tree growth was enhanced by prior wet winters and cool and wet springs, whilst warm summers were associated with less growth. The relationships between site ring-width chronologies were higher in nearby forests. This explains why Aleppo pine growth was distinctly linked to indices of atmospheric circulation patterns depending on the geographical location of the forests. The western forests were more influenced by moisture and temperature conditions driven by the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) and the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the southern forests by the East Atlantic (EA) and the august NAO, while the Balearic, Tunisian and northeastern sites by the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Scandinavian pattern (SCA). The climatic constraints for Aleppo pine tree growth and its biogeographical variability were well captured by the VS-Lite model. The model performed better in dry and continental sites, showing strong growth coherence between trees and climatic limitations of growth. Further research using similar broad-scale approaches to climate–growth relationships in drought-prone regions deserves more attention.

Shifts in Growth Responses to Climate and Exceeded Drought-Vulnerability Thresholds Characterize Dieback in Two Mediterranean Deciduous Oaks

Drought stress has induced dieback episodes affecting many forest types and tree species worldwide. However, there is scarce information regarding drought-triggered growth decline and canopy dieback in Mediterranean deciduous oaks. These species face summer drought but have to form new foliage every spring which can make them vulnerable to hotter and drier conditions during that season. Here, we investigated two stands dominated by Quercus frainetto Ten. and Quercus canariensis Willd. and situated in southern Italy and Spain, respectively, showing drought-induced dieback since the 2000s. We analyzed how radial growth and its responses to climate differed between non-declining (ND) and declining (D) trees, showing different crown defoliation and coexisting in each stand by: (i) characterizing growth variability and its responsiveness to climate and drought through time, and (ii) simulating growth responses to soil moisture and temperature thresholds using the Vaganov–Shashkin VS-lite model. Our results show how growth responsiveness to climate and drought was higher in D trees for both oak species. Growth has become increasingly limited by warmer-drier climate and decreasing soil moisture availability since the 1990s. These conditions preceded growth drops in D trees indicating they were more vulnerable to warming and aridification trends. Extremely warm and dry conditions during the early growing season trigger dieback. Changes in the seasonal timing of water limitations caused contrasting effects on long-term growth trends of D trees after the 1980s in Q. frainetto and during the 1990s in Q. canariensis. Using growth models allows identifying early-warning signals of vulnerability, which can be compared with shifts in the growth responses to warmer and drier conditions. Our approach facilitates establishing drought-vulnerability thresholds by combining growth models with field records of dieback.

Greater sensitivity to hotter droughts underlies juniper dieback and mortality in Mediterranean shrublands

Drought-induced dieback episodes have been globally reported. However, few studies have jointly examined the role played by drought on growth of co-occurring shrub and tree species showing different dieback and mortality. Here, we focused on dieback events affecting Mediterranean shrublands dominated by the Phoenician juniper (Juniperus phoenicea) since the middle 2000s in three sites across a wide geographical and climatic gradient in Spain. We compared their growth responses to climate and drought with coexisting tree species (Pinus pinea, Pinus pinaster and Quercus faginea), which did not show dieback in response to drought. We characterized the major climatic constraints of radial growth for trees, surviving and dead junipers by quantifying climate-growth relationships. Then, we simulated growth responses to temperature and soil moisture using the process-based VS-Lite growth model. Growth of shrubs and trees was strongly reduced during extreme droughts but the highest negative growth responsiveness to climate and drought was observed in trees followed by dead junipers from the most xeric and cold sites. Growth of dead junipers responded more negatively to droughts prior to the dieback than co-occurring, living junipers. Growth was particularly depressed in the dead junipers from the warmest site after the warm and dry 1990s. The growth model showed how a steep precipitation reduction in the 1980s triggered soil moisture limitation at the driest sites, affecting growth, particularly in the case of dead junipers and mainly in warm and dry sites. The asynchrony in the simulated seasonal timing of drought events caused contrasting effects on growth of co-occurring shrubs and tree species, compromising their future coexistence. Junipers were particularly vulnerable to hotter droughts during the early growing season. The presented projections indicate that de-shrubification events in response to hotter droughts will be common but conditioned by site conditions. Our modelling approach provides tools to evaluate vulnerability thresholds of growth under similar drought-induced dieback and mortality processes.

Forest carbon allocation modelling under climate change

Carbon allocation plays a key role in ecosystem dynamics and plant adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Hence, proper description of this process in vegetation models is crucial for the simulations of the impact of climate change on carbon cycling in forests. Here we review how carbon allocation modelling is currently implemented in 31 contrasting models to identify the main gaps compared with our theoretical and empirical understanding of carbon allocation. A hybrid approach based on combining several principles and/or types of carbon allocation modelling prevailed in the examined models, while physiologically more sophisticated approaches were used less often than empirical ones. The analysis revealed that, although the number of carbon allocation studies over the past 10 years has substantially increased, some background processes are still insufficiently understood and some issues in models are frequently poorly represented, oversimplified or even omitted. Hence, current challenges for carbon allocation modelling in forest ecosystems are (i) to overcome remaining limits in process understanding, particularly regarding the impact of disturbances on carbon allocation, accumulation and utilization of nonstructural carbohydrates, and carbon use by symbionts, and (ii) to implement existing knowledge of carbon allocation into defence, regeneration and improved resource uptake in order to better account for changing environmental conditions.

Long-term nutrient imbalances linked to drought-triggered forest dieback

Drought-induced forest dieback is causing reductions in productivity, increasing tree mortality and impairing terrestrial carbon uptake worldwide. However, the role played by long-term nutrient imbalances during drought-induced dieback is still unknown. To improve our knowledge on the relationships between dieback and nutrient imbalances, we analysed wood anatomical traits (tree-ring width and wood density), soil properties and long-term chemical information in tree-ring wood (1900-2010) by non-destructive Micro X-ray fluorescence (μXRF) and destructive (ICP-OES) techniques. We studied two major European conifers with ongoing drought-induced dieback in mesic (Abies alba, silver fir) and xeric (Pinus sylvestris, Scots pine) sites. In each site we compared coexisting declining (D) and non-declining (ND) trees. We used dendrochronology and generalized additive and linear mixed models to analyse trends in tree-ring nutrients and their relationships with wood traits. The D trees presented lower growth and higher minimum wood density than ND trees, corresponding to a smaller lumen area of earlywood tracheids and thus a lower theoretical hydraulic conductivity. These differences in growth and wood-anatomy were more marked in silver fir than in Scots pine. Moreover, most of the chemical elements showed higher concentrations in D than in ND trees during the last two-five decades (e.g., Mn, K and Mg), while Ca and Na increased in the sapwood of ND trees. The Mn concentrations, and related ratios (Ca:Mn, Mn:Al and P:Mn) showed the highest differences between D and ND trees for both tree species. These findings suggest that a reduced hydraulic conductivity, consistent with hydraulic impairment, is affecting the use of P in D trees, making them more prone to drought-induced damage. The retrospective quantifications of Mn ratios may be used as early-warning signals of impending dieback.

Geographic isolation and climatic variability contribute to genetic differentiation in fragmented populations of the long-lived subalpine conifer Pinus cembra L. in the western Alps

Background

Genetic processes shape the modern-day distribution of genetic variation within and between populations and can provide important insights into the underlying mechanisms of evolution. The resulting genetic variation is often unequally partitioned within species’ distribution range and especially large differences can manifest at the range limit, where population fragmentation and isolation play a crucial role in species survival. Despite several molecular studies investigating the genetic diversity and differentiation of European Alpine mountain forests, the climatic and demographic constrains which influence the genetic processes are often unknown. Here, we apply non-coding microsatellite markers to evaluate the sporadic peripheral and continuous populations of cembra pine (Pinus cembra L.), a long-lived conifer species that inhabits the subalpine treeline ecotone in the western Alps to investigate how the genetic processes contribute to the modern-day spatial distribution. Moreover, we corroborate our findings with paleoecological records, micro and macro-remains, to infer the species’ possible glacial refugia and expansion scenarios.

Results

Four genetically distinct groups were identified, with Bayesian and F_ST based approaches, across the range of the species, situated in the northern, inner and south-western Alps. We found that genetic differentiation is substantially higher in marginal populations than at the center of the range, and marginal stands are characterized by geographic and genetic isolation due to spatial segregation and restricted gene flow. Moreover, multiple matrix regression approaches revealed effects of climatic heterogeneity in species’ spatial genetic pattern. Also, population stability tests indicated that all populations had experienced a severe historical bottleneck, no heterozygosity excess was detected, suggesting that more recently population sizes have remained relatively stable.

Conclusions

Our study demonstrated that cembra pine might have survived in multiple glacial refugia and subsequently recolonized the Alps by different routes. Modern-day marginal populations, at the edge of the species’ range, could maintain stable sizes over long periods without inbreeding depression and preserve high amounts of genetic variation. Moreover, our analyses indicate that climatic variability has played a major role in shaping differentiation, in addition to past historical events such as migration and demographic changes.

Radial Growth Patterns Associated with Tree Mortality in Nothofagus pumilio Forest

Tree mortality is a key process in forest dynamics. Despite decades of effort to understand this process, many uncertainties remain. South American broadleaf species are particularly under-represented in global studies on mortality and forest dynamics. We sampled monospecific broadleaf Nothofagus pumilio forests in northern Patagonia to predict tree mortality based on stem growth. Live or dead conditions in N. pumilio trees can be predicted with high accuracy using growth rate as an explanatory variable in logistic models. In Paso Córdova (CO), Argentina, where the models were calibrated, the probability of death was a strong negative function of radial growth, particularly during the six years prior to death. In addition, negative growth trends during 30 to 45 years prior to death increased the accuracy of the models. The CO site was affected by an extreme drought during the summer 1978–1979, triggering negative trends in radial growth of many trees. Individuals showing below-average and persistent negative trends in radial growth are more likely to die than those showing high growth rates and positive growth trends in recent decades, indicating the key role of droughts in inducing mortality. The models calibrated at the CO site showed high verification skill by accurately predicting tree mortality at two independent sites 76 and 141 km away. Models based on relative growth rates showed the highest and most balanced accuracy for both live and dead individuals. Thus, the death of individuals across different N. pumilio sites was largely determined by the growth rate relative to the total size of the individuals. Our findings highlight episodic severe drought as a triggering mechanism for growth decline and eventual death for N. pumilio, similar to results found previously for several other species around the globe. In the coming decades, many forests globally will be exposed to more frequent and/or severe episodes of reduced warm-season soil moisture. Tree-ring studies such as this one can aid prediction of future changes in forest productivity, mortality, and composition.

Global mapping of eco-environmental vulnerability from human and nature disturbances

Global environments are threatened by intensively natural variation and continuously increased human-made disturbances. Assessment of the global eco-environment vulnerability (global EV or GEV) caused by both natural and human-induced disturbances plays a key role in providing valuable information about ecological and environmental background for designing suitable policy measures to improve and restore environment. We present the first global-scale map of quantified eco-environmental vulnerability by integrating remote sensing, GIS modelling, and global census datasets, employing 16 influential factors across five domains: socioeconomics, land resources, natural hazards, hydrometeorology, and topography. The GEV is classified into six levels, namely very low vulnerability, low vulnerability, medium vulnerability, medium high vulnerability, high vulnerability, and very high vulnerability. At global scale, a small fraction of the globe (10.1%) is strongly (high and very high vulnerability) affected by influential factors. Among continents, the largest fraction of very high vulnerability level is attributed to Asia (74.6%) followed by Africa (19.6%). National-scale analysis shows that China and India are the most vulnerable in Asia and in the world. Our study provides accumulative impacts of manmade and natural disturbances, which are vital for decision makers to set improvement targets on specific areas over local, regional, and global scales, and design and adopt new practices to lessen natural and manmade disturbances on environment, while keeping track of evolution of the other environmental aspects.

Expected Global Warming Impacts on the Spatial Distribution and Productivity for 2050 of Five Species of Trees Used in the Wood Energy Supply Chain in France

The development of collective and industrial energy systems, based on wood biomass, knows a significant increase since the end of the 90’s in France, with more than 6000 power plants and heating plants developed currently. Because these systems are built for a minimal duration of 30 years, it is relevant to assess the availability of wood resources according to the potential impacts of global warming on five tree species mainly used in such a supply chain. The assessment of the potential spatial distribution of the suitable areas of these trees in 2050, by using the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) RCP6.0 scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway), shows an average decrease of 22% of the plots in comparison with the current situation. The results also point out that mountain areas would maintain a high probability of the development of four tree species. The assessment of the Net Primary Productivity (NPP) underlines a potential decrease for 93% of the plots in 2050, and an increase of this parameter in mountain areas. According to these assumptions, the proposed ecosystem based methodology can be considered as a prospective approach to support stakeholders’ decisions for the development of the wood energy supply chain.

Disentangling the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment

Climate change can impair ecosystem functions and services in extensive dry forests worldwide. However, attribution of climate change impacts on tree growth and forest productivity is challenging due to multiple inter-annual patterns of climatic variability associated with atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Moreover, growth responses to rising atmospheric CO₂, namely carbon fertilization, as well as size ontogenetic changes can obscure the climate change signature as well. Here we apply Structural Equation Models (SEM) to investigate the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment (i.e., extreme in terms of the combination of sandy-unconsolidated soils and climatic aridity). Specifically, we analyzed potential direct and indirect pathways by which different sources of climatic variability (i.e. warming and precipitation trends, the North Atlantic Oscillation, [NAO]; the Mediterranean Oscillation, [MOI]; the Atlantic Mediterranean Oscillation, [AMO]) affect aridity through their control on local climate (in terms of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation), and subsequently tree productivity, in terms of basal area increments (BAI). Our results support the predominant role of Diameter at Breast Height (DHB) as the main growth driver. In terms of climate, NAO and AMO are the most important drivers of tree growth through their control of aridity (via effects of precipitation and temperature, respectively). Furthermore and contrary to current expectations, our findings also support a net positive role of climate warming on growth over the last 50 years and suggest that impacts of climate warming should be evaluated considering multi-annual and multi-decadal periods of local climate defined by atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic.

Climate Warming Alters Age-Dependent Growth Sensitivity to Temperature in Eurasian Alpine Treelines

Treeline ecotones are considered early-warning monitors of the effects of climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems, but it is still unclear how tree growth at treeline will track the forecasted temperature rise in these cold environments. Here, we address this issue by analysing and projecting growth responses to climate on two different cold-limited alpine treelines: Pinus uncinata Ram. in the Spanish Pyrenees and Larix sibirica Ledeb. in the Russian Polar Urals. We assess radial-growth changes as a function of tree age and long-term climate variability using dendrochronology and a process-based model of tree growth. Climate‒growth relationships were compared considering young (age < 50 years) and old trees (age > 75 years) separately. Warm summer conditions enhanced radial growth, particularly after the 1980s, in the Polar Urals sites, whereas growth was positively related to warm spring and winter conditions in the Pyrenees sites. These associations were stronger in young than in old trees for both tree species and regions. Forecasted warm conditions are expected to enhance growth rates in both regions, while the growing season is forecasted to lengthen in the Pyrenees treelines, mostly in young trees. The observed age-related responses to temperature also depend on the forecasted warming rates. Although the temperature sensitivity is overall increasing for young trees, those responses seem more divergent, or even reversed, throughout the contrasting emission scenarios. The RCP 8.5 emission scenario corresponding to the most pronounced warming and drier conditions (+4.8 °C) could also amplify drought stress in young trees from the Pyrenees treelines. Our modelling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate functional thresholds for tree growth in treeline ecotones under warmer conditions.

Can Future CO2 Concentrations Mitigate the Negative Effects of High Temperature and Longer Droughts on Forest Growth?

(1) Background: Climate change may subject forests to climate conditions to which they are not adapted. Elevated temperatures can potentially reduce net photosynthesis by increasing respiration rates and increasingly long droughts dramatically increase morbidity. While CO2 enrichment enhances productivity, it is not clear to what extent CO2 enrichment can offset the negative effects of elevated temperatures and longer droughts; (2) Methods: We used a mechanistic landscape model to conduct controlled simulation experiments manipulating CO2 concentration, temperature, drought length and soil water capacity; (3) Results: We found that elevated CO2 stimulates productivity such that it dwarfs the negative effect caused by elevated temperature. Energy reserves were not as strongly mitigated by elevated CO2, and the mortality of less competitive cohorts increased. Drought length had a surprisingly small effect on productivity measures, but longer droughts increased the risk of mortality; (4) Conclusions: Elevated CO2 compensated for the negative effect of longer droughts in terms of productivity measures, but not survival measures.

Hydraulics play an important role in causing low growth rate and dieback of aging Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica trees in plantations of Northeast China

The frequently observed forest decline in water-limited regions may be associated with impaired tree hydraulics, but the precise physiological mechanisms remain poorly understood. We compared hydraulic architecture of Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) trees of different size classes from a plantation and a natural forest site to test whether greater hydraulic limitation with increasing size plays an important role in tree decline observed in the more water-limited plantation site. We found that trees from plantations overall showed significantly lower stem hydraulic efficiency. More importantly, plantation-grown trees showed significant declines in stem hydraulic conductivity and hydraulic safety margins as well as syndromes of stronger drought stress with increasing size, whereas no such trends were observed at the natural forest site. Most notably, the leaf to sapwood area ratio (LA/SA) showed a strong linear decline with increasing tree size at the plantation site. Although compensatory adjustments in LA/SA may mitigate the effect of increased water stress in larger trees, they may result in greater risk of carbon imbalance, eventually limiting tree growth at the plantation site. Our results provide a potential mechanistic explanation for the widespread decline of Mongolian pine trees in plantations of Northern China.

Forest resilience to drought varies across biomes

Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species-level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree-ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring-width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994-1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi-arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi-arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards.

Increased water-use efficiency translates into contrasting growth patterns of Scots pine and sessile oak at their southern distribution limits

In forests, the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (C_a ) has been related to enhanced tree growth and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). However, in drought-prone areas such as the Mediterranean Basin, it is not yet clear to what extent this "fertilizing" effect may compensate for drought-induced growth reduction. We investigated tree growth and physiological responses at five Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and five sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) sites located at their southernmost distribution limits in Europe for the period 1960-2012 using annually resolved tree-ring width and δ¹³ C data to track ecophysiological processes. Results indicated that all 10 natural stands significantly increased their leaf intercellular CO₂ concentration (C_i ), and consequently iWUE. Different trends in the theoretical gas-exchange scenarios as a response to increasing C_a were found: generally, C_i tended to increase proportionally to C_a , except for trees at the driest sites in which C_i remained constant. C_i from the oak sites displaying higher water availability tended to increase at a comparable rate to C_a . Multiple linear models fitted at site level to predict basal area increment (BAI) using iWUE and climatic variables better explained tree growth in pines (31.9%-71.4%) than in oak stands (15.8%-46.8%). iWUE was negatively linked to pine growth, whereas its effect on growth of oak differed across sites. Tree growth in the western and central oak stands was negatively related to iWUE, whereas BAI from the easternmost stand was positively associated with iWUE. Thus, some Q. petraea stands might have partially benefited from the "fertilizing" effect of rising C_a , whereas P. sylvestris stands due to their strict closure of stomata did not profit from increased iWUE and consequently showed in general growth reductions across sites. Additionally, the inter-annual variability of BAI and iWUE displayed a geographical polarity in the Mediterranean.

Last-century forest productivity in a managed dry-edge Scots pine population: the two sides of climate warming

Climate change in the Mediterranean, associated with warmer temperatures and more frequent droughts, is expected to impact forest productivity and the functioning of forests ecosystems as carbon reservoirs in the region. Climate warming can positively affect forest growth by extending the growing season, whereas increasing summer drought generally reduces forest productivity and may cause growth decline, trigger dieback, hamper regeneration, and increase mortality. Forest management could potentially counteract such negative effects by reducing stand density and thereby competition for water. The effectiveness of such interventions, however, has so far mostly been evaluated for short time periods at the tree and stand levels, which limits our confidence regarding the efficacy of thinning interventions over longer time scales under the complex interplay between climate, stand structure, and forest management. In this study, we use a century-long historical data set to assess the effects of climate and management on forest productivity. We consider rear-edge Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) populations covering continental and Mediterranean conditions along an altitudinal gradient in Central Spain. We use linear mixed-effects models to disentangle the effects of altitude, climate, and stand volume on forest growth and ingrowth (recruitment and young trees' growth). We find that warming tends to benefit these tree populations, warmer winter temperature has a significant positive effect on both forest growth and ingrowth, and the effect is more pronounced at low elevations. However, drought conditions severely reduce growth and ingrowth, in particular when competition (stand volume) is high. We conclude that summer droughts are the main threat to Scots pine populations in the region, and that a reduction of stand volume can partially mitigate the negative impacts of more arid conditions. Mitigation and adaptation measures could therefore manage stand structure to adopt for the anticipated impacts of climate change in Mediterranean forest ecosystems.

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.