Large but uneven reduction in fish size across species in relation to changing sea temperatures

Shoals in troubled waters? The impact of rising temperatures on metabolism, foraging, and shoaling behavior in mixed-species shoals

Rising water temperatures across aquatic habitats, in the current global climate change scenario, can directly affect metabolism and food intake in fish species. This can potentially alter their physiological, behavioral, and shoaling properties. In the current study, we examined the effects of high temperatures on metabolism, foraging, and shoaling in tropical fish. Mixed-species (comprising flying barbs, zebrafish, and gambusia) and single-species (flying barbs and zebrafish) shoals were conditioned for 45 days to three kinds of temperature regimes: the current temperature regime (CTR), in which shoals were maintained at water temperature of 24°C (i.e., the current mean temperature of their habitat), the predicted temperature regime (PTR) at 31°C (i.e., simulating conditions projected for their habitat in 2100), and the dynamic temperature regime (DTR), which experienced daily temperature fluctuations between 24 and 31°C (i.e., resembling rapid temperature changes expected in their natural environments). We found species-specific responses to these temperature regimes. Flying barbs exhibited significantly lower body weight at PTR but maintained consistent muscle glycogen content across all temperature regimes. In contrast, zebrafish and gambusia displayed significantly elevated muscle glycogen content at PTR, with similar body weights across all three temperature regimes. Cohesion within flying barb shoals and cohesion/polarization in mixed-species shoals decreased significantly at PTR. Shoals exposed to DTR exhibited intermediate characteristics between those conditioned to CTR and PTR, suggesting that shoals may be less impacted by dynamic temperatures compared to prolonged high temperatures. This study highlights species-specific metabolic responses to temperature changes and their potential implications for larger-scale shoal properties.

Impacts of ocean warming on fish size reductions on the world's hottest coral reefs

The impact of ocean warming on fish and fisheries is vigorously debated. Leading theories project limited adaptive capacity of tropical fishes and 14-39% size reductions by 2050 due to mass-scaling limitations of oxygen supply in larger individuals. Using the world's hottest coral reefs in the Persian/Arabian Gulf as a natural laboratory for ocean warming - where species have survived >35.0 °C summer temperatures for over 6000 years and are 14-40% smaller at maximum size compared to cooler locations - we identified two adaptive pathways that enhance survival at elevated temperatures across 10 metabolic and swimming performance metrics. Comparing Lutjanus ehrenbergii and Scolopsis ghanam from reefs both inside and outside the Persian/Arabian Gulf across temperatures of 27.0 °C, 31.5 °C and 35.5 °C, we reveal that these species show a lower-than-expected rise in basal metabolic demands and a right-shifted thermal window, which aids in maintaining oxygen supply and aerobic performance to 35.5 °C. Importantly, our findings challenge traditional oxygen-limitation theories, suggesting a mismatch in energy acquisition and demand as the primary driver of size reductions. Our data support a modified resource-acquisition theory to explain how ocean warming leads to species-specific size reductions and why smaller individuals are evolutionarily favored under elevated temperatures.

Coherent long-term body-size responses across all Northwest Atlantic herring populations to warming and environmental change despite contrasting harvest and ecological factors

Body size is a key component of individual fitness and an important factor in the structure and functioning of populations and ecosystems. Disentangling the effects of environmental change, harvest and intra- and inter-specific trophic effects on body size remains challenging for populations in the wild. Herring in the Northwest Atlantic provide a strong basis for evaluating hypotheses related to these drivers given that they have experienced significant warming and harvest over the past century, while also having been exposed to a wide range of other selective constraints across their range. Using data on mean length-at-age 4 for the sixteen principal populations over a period of 53 cohorts (1962-2014), we fitted a series of empirical models for temporal and between-population variation in the response to changes in sea surface temperature. We find evidence for a unified cross-population response in the form of a parabolic function according to which populations in naturally warmer environments have responded more negatively to increasing temperature compared with those in colder locations. Temporal variation in residuals from this function was highly coherent among populations, further suggesting a common response to a large-scale environmental driver. The synchrony observed in this study system, despite strong differences in harvest and ecological histories among populations and over time, clearly indicates a dominant role of environmental change on size-at-age in wild populations, in contrast to commonly reported effects of fishing. This finding has important implications for the management of fisheries as it indicates that a key trait associated with population productivity may be under considerably less short-term management control than currently assumed. Our study, overall, illustrates the need for a comparative approach within species for inferences concerning the many possible effects on body size of natural and anthropogenic drivers in the wild.

Mean reef fish body size decreases towards warmer waters

Aquatic ectotherms often attain smaller body sizes at higher temperatures. By analysing ~15,000 coastal-reef fish surveys across a 15°C spatial sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we found that the mean length of fish in communities decreased by ~5% for each 1°C temperature increase across space, or 50% decrease in mean length from 14 to 29°C mean annual SST. Community mean body size change was driven by differential temperature responses within trophic groups and temperature-driven change in their relative abundance. Herbivores, invertivores and planktivores became smaller on average in warmer temperatures, but no trend was found in piscivores. Nearly 25% of the temperature-related community mean size trend was attributable to trophic composition at the warmest sites, but at colder temperatures, this was <1% due to trophic groups being similarly sized. Our findings suggest that small changes in temperature are associated with large changes in fish community composition and body sizes, with important ecological implications.

Shrinking body size of European anchovy in the Bay of Biscay

Decreased body size is often cited as a major response to ocean warming. Available evidence, however, questions the actual emergence of shrinking trends and the prevalence of temperature-driven changes in size over alternative drivers. In marine fish, changes in food availability or fluctuations in abundance, including those due to size-selective fishing, provide compelling mechanisms to explain changes in body size. Here, based on three decades of scientific survey data (1990-2021), we report a decline in the average body size-length and weight-of anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus L., in the Bay of Biscay. Shrinking was evident in all age classes, from juveniles to adults. Allometric adjustment indicated slightly more pronounced declines in weight than in total length, which is consistent with a change toward a slender body shape. Trends in adult weight were nonlinear, with rates accelerating to an average decline of up to 25% decade-1 during the last two decades. We found a strong association between higher anchovy abundance and reduced juvenile size. The effect of density dependence was less clear later in life, and temperature became the best predictor of declines in adult size. Theoretical analyses based on a strategic model further suggested that observed patterns are consistent with a simultaneous, opposing effect of rising temperatures on accelerating early growth and decreasing adult size as predicted by the temperature-size rule. Macroecological assessment of ecogeographical-Bergmann's and James'-rules in anchovy size suggested that the observed decline largely exceeds intraspecific variation and might be the result of selection. Limitations inherent in the observational nature of the study recommend caution and a continued assessment and exploration of alternative drivers. Additional evidence of a climate-driven regime shift in the region suggests, however, that shrinking anchovy sizes may signal a long-lasting change in the structure and functioning of the Bay of Biscay ecosystem.

Change in body size in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem: Consequences of tropicalization

Climate change is profoundly affecting the physical environment and biota of the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf ecosystem. To understand adaptations to climate change, in particular warming temperatures, we used bottom trawl survey data to describe the size of individual fish and macroinvertebrates. Using species distribution models to estimate abundance and biomass, we determined body size in weight for all modeled species. We demonstrate a tendency for increased abundance and biomass and a concomitant decline in body size over time. An analysis of length frequency data supports this assertion. There was no trend in the combined anthropogenic removals from the ecosystem, i.e. catches, suggesting a limited role of fisheries in influencing these changes. The changes in the fish and macroinvertebrate communities are consistent with the hypothesis of a tropicalization of this ecosystem, where the ecosystem experiences a change in diversity, abundance, biomass, and the size of individuals consistent with lower latitudes. The changes in how productivity is expressed in the ecosystem factors into how human populations relate to it; in a practical sense, change in body size will likely influence the strategies and efficiencies of harvest procedures and the industries built to support them.

Fishery catch is affected by geographic expansion, fishing down food webs and climate change in Aotearoa, New Zealand

Historical fishing effort has resulted, in many parts of the ocean, in increasing catches of smaller, lower trophic level species once larger higher trophic level species have been depleted. Concurrently, changes in the geographic distribution of marine species have been observed as species track their thermal affinity in line with ocean warming. However, geographic shifts in fisheries, including to deeper waters, may conceal the phenomenon of fishing down the food web and effects of climate warming on fish stocks. Fisheries-catch weighted metrics such as the Mean Trophic Level (MTL) and Mean Temperature of the Catch (MTC) are used to investigate these phenomena, although apparent trends of these metrics can be masked by the aforementioned geographic expansion and deepening of fisheries catch across large areas and time periods. We investigated instances of both fishing down trophic levels and climate-driven changes in the geographic distribution of fished species in New Zealand waters from 1950-2019, using the MTL and MTC. Thereafter, we corrected for the masking effect of the geographic expansion of fisheries within these indices by using the Fishing-in-Balance (FiB) index and the adapted Mean Trophic Level (aMTL) index. Our results document the offshore expansion of fisheries across the New Zealand Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) from 1950-2019, as well as the pervasiveness of fishing down within nearshore fishing stock assemblages. We also revealed the warming of the MTC for pelagic-associated fisheries, trends that were otherwise masked by the depth- and geographic expansion of New Zealand fisheries across the study period.

Shrinking body size and climate warming: Many freshwater salmonids do not follow the rule

Declining body size is believed to be a universal response to climate warming and has been documented in numerous studies of marine and anadromous fishes. The Salmonidae are a family of coldwater fishes considered to be among the most sensitive species to climate warming; however, whether the shrinking body size response holds true for freshwater salmonids has yet to be examined at a broad spatial scale. We compiled observations of individual fish lengths from long-term surveys across the Northern Hemisphere for 12 species of freshwater salmonids and used linear mixed models to test for spatial and temporal trends in body size (fish length) spanning recent decades. Contrary to expectations, we found a significant increase in length overall but with high variability in trends among populations and species. More than two-thirds of the populations we examined increased in length over time. Secondary regressions revealed larger-bodied populations are experiencing greater increases in length than smaller-bodied populations. Mean water temperature was weakly predictive of changes in body length but overall minimal influences of environmental variables suggest that it is difficult to predict an organism's response to changing temperatures by solely looking at climatic factors. Our results suggest that declining body size is not universal, and the response of fishes to climate change may be largely influenced by local factors. It is important to know that we cannot assume the effects of climate change are predictable and negative at a large spatial scale.

How will warming affect the growth and body size of the largest extant amphibian? More than the temperature-size rule

Declining body size is a universal ecological response to global warming in ectotherms. Ectotherms grow faster but mature at a smaller size at higher temperatures. This phenomenon is known as the temperature-size rule (TSR). However, we know little about the details of the relationship between temperature and size. Here, this issue was studied in the Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus), one of the largest extant amphibians and a flagship species of conservation in China. Warm-acclimated A. davidianus larvae (25 °C) had accelerated development but little superiority in body growth when compared to their 15 °C counterparts when fed with red worm. This predicts a drastic decrease in adult body size with warming. However, a fish diet (more abundant lipid and protein) improved the growth performance at 25 °C. The underlying mechanism was studied. Warm-acclimated larvae had enlarged livers but shortened tails (fat depot). Their livers suffered from energy deficiencies and decreased protein levels, even when protein synthesis and energy metabolism were transcriptionally upregulated. This could be a direct explanation for their poor growth performance. Further analyses revealed a metabolic disorder resembling mammal glycogen storage disease in warm-acclimated larvae, indicating deficiency in glycogen catabolism. This speculation is consistent with their increased lipid and amino acid catabolism and explained the poor energy conditions of the warm-acclimated larvae. Additionally, a deficiency in glycogen metabolism explains the different efficiency of worm and fish diets in supporting the growth of warm-acclimated larvae, even when both diets were provided sufficiently. In conclusion, our results suggest that the relationship between temperature and body size can be flexible, which is a significant finding in terms of the TSR. The underlying metabolic and nutrient mechanisms were revealed. This knowledge can help deepen our understanding of the consequences of warming and can contribute to the conservation of A. davidianus.

Optimal energy allocation trade-off driven by size-dependent physiological and demographic responses to warming

Body size-dependent physiological effects of temperature influence individual growth, reproduction, and survival, which govern animal population responses to global warming. Considerable knowledge has been established on how such effects can affect population growth and size structure, but less is known of their potential role in temperature-driven adaptation in life-history traits. In this study, we ask how warming affects the optimal allocation of energy between growth and reproduction and disentangle the underlying fitness trade-offs. To this end, we develop a novel dynamic energy budget integral projection model (DEB-IPM), linking individuals' size- and temperature-dependent consumption and maintenance via somatic growth, reproduction, and size-dependent energy allocation to emergent population responses. At the population level, we calculate the long-term population growth rate (fitness) and stable size structure emerging from demographic processes. Applying the model to an example of pike (Esox lucius), we find that optimal energy allocation to growth decreases with warming. Furthermore, we demonstrate how growth, fecundity, and survival contribute to this change in optimal allocation. Higher energy allocation to somatic growth at low temperatures increases fitness through survival of small individuals and through the reproduction of larger individuals. In contrast, at high temperatures, increased allocation to reproduction is favored because warming induces faster somatic growth of small individuals and increased fecundity but reduced growth and higher mortality of larger individuals. Reduced optimum allocation to growth leads to further reductions in body size and an increasingly truncated population size structure with warming. Our study demonstrates how, by incorporating general physiological mechanisms driving the temperature dependence of life-history traits, the DEB-IPM framework is useful for investigating the adaptation of size-structured organisms to warming.

Temperature impacts on fish physiology and resource abundance lead to faster growth but smaller fish sizes and yields under warming

Resolving the combined effect of climate warming and exploitation in a food web context is key for predicting future biomass production, size-structure and potential yields of marine fishes. Previous studies based on mechanistic size-based food web models have found that bottom-up processes are important drivers of size-structure and fisheries yield in changing climates. However, we know less about the joint effects of 'bottom-up' and physiological effects of temperature; how do temperature effects propagate from individual-level physiology through food webs and alter the size-structure of exploited species in a community? Here, we assess how a species-resolved size-based food web is affected by warming through both these pathways and by exploitation. We parameterize a dynamic size spectrum food web model inspired by the offshore Baltic Sea food web, and investigate how individual growth rates, size-structure, and relative abundances of species and yields are affected by warming. The magnitude of warming is based on projections by the regional coupled model system RCA4-NEMO and the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, and we evaluate different scenarios of temperature dependence on fish physiology and resource productivity. When accounting for temperature-effects on physiology in addition to on basal productivity, projected size-at-age in 2050 increases on average for all fish species, mainly for young fish, compared to scenarios without warming. In contrast, size-at-age decreases when temperature affects resource dynamics only, and the decline is largest for young fish. Faster growth rates due to warming, however, do not always translate to larger yields, as lower resource carrying capacities with increasing temperature tend to result in decline in the abundance of larger fish and hence spawning stock biomass. These results suggest that to understand how global warming affects the size structure of fish communities, both direct metabolic effects and indirect effects of temperature via basal resources must be accounted for.

Juvenile-to-adult transition invariances in fishes: Perspectives on proximate and ultimate causation

To bridge physiological and evolutionary perspectives on size at maturity in fishes, the authors focus on the approximately invariant ratio between the estimated oxygen supply at size at maturity (Q_m ) relative to that at asymptotic size (Q_∞ ) among species within a taxonomic group, and show how two important theories related to this phenomenon complement each other. Gill-oxygen limitation theory proposes a mechanistic basis for a universal oxygen supply-based threshold for maturation, which applies among and within species. On the contrary, the authors show that a generalisation of life-history theory for the invariance of size at maturity (L_m ) relative to asymptotic size (L_∞ ) can provide an evolutionary rationale for an oxygen-limited maturation threshold (Q_m /Q_∞ ). Extending previous inter- and intraspecific analyses, the authors show that maturation invariances also occur in lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis (Mitchill 1818), but at both scales, theory seems to underestimate the value of the maturation threshold. They highlight some key uncertainties in the model that should be addressed to help resolve the mismatch.

Age structure affects population productivity in an exploited fish species

Long-term changes in the age and size structure of animal populations are well documented, yet their impacts on population productivity are poorly understood. Fishery exploitation can be a major driver of changes in population age-size structure because fisheries significantly increase mortality and often selectively remove larger and older fish. Climate change is another potential driver of shifts in the demographic structure of fish populations. Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod is the largest population of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and one of the world's most important commercial fish stocks. This population has experienced considerable changes in population age-size structure over the past century, largely in response to fishing. In this study, we investigate whether changes in spawner age structure have affected population productivity in NEA cod, measured as recruits per spawning stock biomass, over the past 75 years. We find evidence that shifts in age structure toward younger spawners negatively affect population productivity, implying higher recruitment success when the spawning stock is composed of older individuals. The positive effect of an older spawning stock is likely linked to maternal effects and higher reproductive output of larger females. Our results indicate a threefold difference in productivity between the youngest and oldest spawning stock that has been observed since the 1950s. Further, our results suggest a positive effect of environmental temperature and a negative effect of intraspecific cannibalism by older juveniles on population productivity, which partly masked the effect of spawner age structure unless accounted for in the model. Collectively, these findings emphasize the importance of population age structure for the productivity of fish populations and suggest that harvest-induced demographic changes can have negative feedbacks for fisheries that lead to a younger spawning stock. Incorporating demographic data into harvest strategies could thus facilitate sustainable fishery management.

Optimum growth temperature declines with body size within fish species

According to the temperature-size rule, warming of aquatic ecosystems is generally predicted to increase individual growth rates but reduce asymptotic body sizes of ectotherms. However, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how growth and key processes affecting it, such as consumption and metabolism, depend on both temperature and body mass within species. This limits our ability to inform growth models, link experimental data to observed growth patterns, and advance mechanistic food web models. To examine the combined effects of body size and temperature on individual growth, as well as the link between maximum consumption, metabolism, and body growth, we conducted a systematic review and compiled experimental data on fishes from 52 studies that combined body mass and temperature treatments. By fitting hierarchical models accounting for variation between species, we estimated how maximum consumption and metabolic rate scale jointly with temperature and body mass within species. We found that whole-organism maximum consumption increases more slowly with body mass than metabolism, and is unimodal over the full temperature range, which leads to the prediction that optimum growth temperatures decline with body size. Using an independent dataset, we confirmed this negative relationship between optimum growth temperature and body size. Small individuals of a given population may, therefore, exhibit increased growth with initial warming, whereas larger conspecifics could be the first to experience negative impacts of warming on growth. These findings help advance mechanistic models of individual growth and food web dynamics and improve our understanding of how climate warming affects the growth and size structure of aquatic ectotherms.

Anadromous fish as biomarkers for the combined impact of marine and freshwater heavy metal pollution

Rivers along the eastern seaboard of the United States and Canada are becoming increasingly contaminated with heavy metals. This includes the Tusket River (Nova Scotia, Canada) which empties into the Gulf of Maine, near the Bay of Fundy. Whether anadromous fish such as alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), exposed both to marine and freshwater contaminants, are accumulating these heavy metals and experiencing any changes in their morphology was explored in this study. Adult (4-6 years of age) Tusket River alewife (n = 38) were harvested and had external examinations including morphometrics (fork length, weight). Biopsies were taken and structural abnormalities noted. Morphometric data was compared to historical alewife reference data from 1985. Biopsies of muscle, liver and kidney had heavy metal profiles assessed. Major findings of this study include detectable levels (µg/g wet weight) of a number of heavy metals and concerning maximum concentrations achieved of arsenic (liver: 14 µg/g), cadmium (kidney: 2.6 µg/g), mercury (liver: 0.26 µg/g), magnesium (muscle: 460 µg/g), selenium (kidney: 4.0 µg/g) and zinc (liver: 38.0 µg/g). As well, reduced body weight for length and in 87% of fish, presence of spine curvatures (3-24°) not visible externally were noted. This study is the first detailed report in alewife of key tissue heavy metals, some at levels of concern, reductions in weight for length and spine abnormalities. These findings validate concerns regarding potential impacts of deteriorating conditions of rivers and their surrounding waters such as the Gulf of Maine on anadromous fish species.

Population consequences of climate change through effects on functional traits of lentic brown trout in the sub-Arctic

Climate-induced plasticity in functional traits has received recent attention due to the immense importance phenotypic variation plays in population level responses. Here, we explore the effect of different climate-change scenarios on lentic populations of a freshwater ectotherm, the brown trout (Salmo trutta L.), through climate effects on functional traits. We first parameterize models of climate variables on growth, spawning probability and fecundity. The models are utilized to inform a dynamic age-structured projection matrix, enabling long-term population viability projections under climate and population density variation. Ambient temperature and winter conditions had a substantial effect on population growth rate. In general, warmer summer temperatures resulted in faster growth rates for young fish but ended in smaller size at age as fish got older. Increasing summer temperatures also induced maturation at younger age and smaller size. In addition, we found effects of first-year growth on later growth trajectories for a fish, indicating that environmental conditions experienced the first year will also influence size at age later in life. At the population level, increasing temperatures average (up to 4 °C increase in areas with mean summer temperature at approximately 12 °C) resulted in a positive effect on population growth rate (i.e. smaller but more fish) during climate simulations including increasing and more variable temperatures.

Multigenerational exposure to warming and fishing causes recruitment collapse, but size diversity and periodic cooling can aid recovery

Global warming and fisheries harvest are significantly impacting wild fish stocks, yet their interactive influence on population resilience to stress remains unclear. We explored these interactive effects on early-life development and survival by experimentally manipulating the thermal and harvest regimes in 18 zebrafish (Danio rerio) populations over six consecutive generations. Warming advanced development rates across generations, but after three generations, it caused a sudden and large (30-50%) decline in recruitment. This warming impact was most severe in populations where size-selective harvesting reduced the average size of spawners. We then explored whether our observed recruitment decline could be explained by changes in egg size, early egg and larval survival, population sex ratio, and developmental costs. We found that it was most likely driven by temperature-induced shifts in embryonic development rate and fishing-induced male-biased sex ratios. Importantly, once harvest and warming were relaxed, recruitment rates rapidly recovered. Our study suggests that the effects of warming and fishing could have strong impacts on wild stock recruitment, but this may take several generations to manifest. However, resilience of wild populations may be higher if fishing preserves sufficient body size diversity, and windows of suitable temperature periodically occur.

Shrinking body sizes in response to warming: explanations for the temperature-size rule with special emphasis on the role of oxygen

Body size is central to ecology at levels ranging from organismal fecundity to the functioning of communities and ecosystems. Understanding temperature-induced variations in body size is therefore of fundamental and applied interest, yet thermal responses of body size remain poorly understood. Temperature-size (T-S) responses tend to be negative (e.g. smaller body size at maturity when reared under warmer conditions), which has been termed the temperature-size rule (TSR). Explanations emphasize either physiological mechanisms (e.g. limitation of oxygen or other resources and temperature-dependent resource allocation) or the adaptive value of either a large body size (e.g. to increase fecundity) or a short development time (e.g. in response to increased mortality in warm conditions). Oxygen limitation could act as a proximate factor, but we suggest it more likely constitutes a selective pressure to reduce body size in the warm: risks of oxygen limitation will be reduced as a consequence of evolution eliminating genotypes more prone to oxygen limitation. Thus, T-S responses can be explained by the 'Ghost of Oxygen-limitation Past', whereby the resulting (evolved) T-S responses safeguard sufficient oxygen provisioning under warmer conditions, reflecting the balance between oxygen supply and demands experienced by ancestors. T-S responses vary considerably across species, but some of this variation is predictable. Body-size reductions with warming are stronger in aquatic taxa than in terrestrial taxa. We discuss whether larger aquatic taxa may especially face greater risks of oxygen limitation as they grow, which may be manifested at the cellular level, the level of the gills and the whole-organism level. In contrast to aquatic species, terrestrial ectotherms may be less prone to oxygen limitation and prioritize early maturity over large size, likely because overwintering is more challenging, with concomitant stronger end-of season time constraints. Mechanisms related to time constraints and oxygen limitation are not mutually exclusive explanations for the TSR. Rather, these and other mechanisms may operate in tandem. But their relative importance may vary depending on the ecology and physiology of the species in question, explaining not only the general tendency of negative T-S responses but also variation in T-S responses among animals differing in mode of respiration (e.g. water breathers versus air breathers), genome size, voltinism and thermally associated behaviour (e.g. heliotherms).

Interacting forces of predation and fishing affect species' maturation size

Fishing is a strong selective force and is supposed to select for earlier maturation at smaller body size. However, the extent to which fishing-induced evolution is shaping ecosystems remains debated. This is in part because it is challenging to disentangle fishing from other selective forces (e.g., size-structured predation and cannibalism) in complex ecosystems undergoing rapid change.Changes in maturation size from fishing and predation have previously been explored with multi-species physiologically structured models but assumed separation of ecological and evolutionary timescales. To assess the eco-evolutionary impact of fishing and predation at the same timescale, we developed a stochastic physiologically size-structured food-web model, where new phenotypes are introduced randomly through time enabling dynamic simulation of species' relative maturation sizes under different types of selection pressures.Using the model, we carried out a fully factorial in silico experiment to assess how maturation size would change in the absence and presence of both fishing and predation (including cannibalism). We carried out ten replicate stochastic simulations exposed to all combinations of fishing and predation in a model community of nine interacting fish species ranging in their maximum sizes from 10 g to 100 kg. We visualized and statistically analyzed the results using linear models.The effects of fishing on maturation size depended on whether or not predation was enabled and differed substantially across species. Fishing consistently reduced the maturation sizes of two largest species whether or not predation was enabled and this decrease was seen even at low fishing intensities (F = 0.2 per year). In contrast, the maturation sizes of the three smallest species evolved to become smaller through time but this happened regardless of the levels of predation or fishing. For the four medium-size species, the effect of fishing was highly variable with more species showing significant and larger fishing effects in the presence of predation.Ultimately our results suggest that the interactive effects of predation and fishing can have marked effects on species' maturation sizes, but that, at least for the largest species, predation does not counterbalance the evolutionary effect of fishing. Our model also produced relative maturation sizes that are broadly consistent with empirical estimates for many fish species.

Stage-dependent effects of river flow and temperature regimes on the growth dynamics of an apex predator

In the world's rivers, alteration of flow is a major driver of biodiversity decline. Global warming is now affecting the thermal and hydrological regimes of rivers, compounding the threat and complicating conservation planning. To inform management under a non-stationary climate, we must improve our understanding of how flow and thermal regimes interact to affect the population dynamics of riverine biota. We used long-term growth biochronologies, spanning 34 years and 400,000 km² , to model the growth dynamics of a long-lived, apex predator (Murray cod) as a function of factors extrinsic (river discharge; air temperature; sub-catchment) and intrinsic (age; individual) to the population. Annual growth of Murray cod showed significant, curvilinear, life-stage-specific responses to an interaction between annual discharge and temperature. Growth of early juveniles (age 1+ and 2+ years) exhibited a unimodal relationship with annual discharge, peaking near median annual discharge. Growth of late juveniles (3+ to 5+) and adults (>5+) increased with annual discharge, with the rate of increase being particularly high in adults, whose growth peaked during years with flooding. Years with very low annual discharge, as experienced during drought and under high abstraction, suppress growth rates of all Murray cod life-stages. Unimodal relationships between growth and annual temperature were evident across all life stages. Contrary to expectations of the Temperature Size Rule, the annual air temperature at which maximum growth occurred increased with age. The stage-specific response of Murray cod to annual discharge indicates that no single magnitude of annual discharge is optimal for cod populations, adding further weight to the case for maintaining and/or restoring flow variability in riverine ecosystems. With respect to climate change impacts, on balance our results indicate that the primary mechanism by which climate change threatens Murray cod growth is through alteration of river flows, not through warming annual mean temperatures per se.

Individual variation and interactions explain food web responses to global warming

Understanding food web responses to global warming, and their consequences for conservation and management, requires knowledge on how responses vary both among and within species. Warming can reduce both species richness and biomass production. However, warming responses observed at different levels of biological organization may seem contradictory. For example, higher temperatures commonly lead to faster individual body growth but can decrease biomass production of fishes. Here we show that the key to resolve this contradiction is intraspecific variation, because (i) community dynamics emerge from interactions among individuals, and (ii) ecological interactions, physiological processes and warming effects often vary over life history. By combining insights from temperature-dependent dynamic models of simple food webs, observations over large temperature gradients and findings from short-term mesocosm and multi-decadal whole-ecosystem warming experiments, we resolve mechanisms by which warming waters can affect food webs via individual-level responses and review their empirical support. We identify a need for warming experiments on food webs manipulating population size structures to test these mechanisms. We stress that within-species variation in both body size, temperature responses and ecological interactions are key for accurate predictions and appropriate conservation efforts for fish production and food web function under a warming climate.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

The combined effect of body size and temperature on oxygen consumption rates and the size-dependency of preferred temperature in European perch Perca fluviatilis

The present study determined the effect of body mass and acclimation temperature (15-28°C) on oxygen consumption rate (ṀO₂ ) and the size dependency of preferred temperature in European perch Perca fluviatilis. Standard metabolic rate (SMR) scaled allometrically with body mass by an exponent of 0.86, and temperature influenced SMR with a Q₁₀ of 1.9 regardless of size. Maximum metabolic rate (MMR) and aerobic scope (MMR-SMR) scaled allometrically with body mass by exponents of 0.75-0.88. The mass scaling exponents of MMR and aerobic scope changed with temperature and were lowest at the highest temperature. Consequently, the optimal temperature for aerobic scope decreased with increasing body mass. Notably, fish <40 g did not show a decrease aerobic scope with increasing temperature. Factorial aerobic scope (MMR × SMR^-1 ) generally decreased with increasing temperatures, was unaffected by size at the lower temperatures, and scaled negatively with body mass at the highest temperature. Similar to the optimal temperature for aerobic scope, preferred temperature declined with increasing body mass, unaffectedly by acclimation temperature. The present study indicates a limitation in the capacity for oxygen uptake in larger fish at high temperatures. A constraint in oxygen uptake at high temperature may restrict the growth of larger fish with environmental warming, at least if food availability is not limited. Furthermore, behavioural thermoregulation may be contributing to regional changes in the size distribution of fish in the wild caused by global warming as larger individuals will prefer colder water at higher latitudes and at larger depths than smaller conspecifics with increasing environmental temperatures.

Life histories determine divergent population trends for fishes under climate warming

Most marine fish species express life-history changes across temperature gradients, such as faster growth, earlier maturation, and higher mortality at higher temperature. However, such climate-driven effects on life histories and population dynamics remain unassessed for most fishes. For 332 Indo-Pacific fishes, we show positive effects of temperature on body growth (but with decreasing asymptotic length), reproductive rates (including earlier age-at-maturation), and natural mortality for all species, with the effect strength varying among habitat-related species groups. Reef and demersal fishes are more sensitive to temperature changes than pelagic and bathydemersal fishes. Using a life table, we show that the combined changes of life histories upon increasing temperature tend to facilitate population growth for slow life-history populations, but reduce it for fast life-history ones. Within our data, lower proportions (25-30%) of slow life-history fishes but greater proportions of fast life-history fishes (42-60%) show declined population growth rates under 1 °C warming. Together, these findings suggest prioritizing sustainable management for fast life-history species.

Trade-offs between morphology and thermal niches mediate adaptation in response to competing selective pressures

The effects of climate change-such as increased temperature variability and novel predators-rarely happen in isolation, but it is unclear how organisms cope with multiple stressors simultaneously. To explore this, we grew replicate Paramecium caudatum populations in either constant or variable temperatures and exposed half to predation. We then fit thermal performance curves (TPCs) of intrinsic growth rate (r max) for each replicate population (N = 12) across seven temperatures (10°C-38°C). TPCs of P. caudatum exposed to both temperature variability and predation responded only to one or the other (but not both), resulting in unpredictable outcomes. These changes in TPCs were accompanied by changes in cell morphology. Although cell volume was conserved across treatments, cells became narrower in response to temperature variability and rounder in response to predation. Our findings suggest that predation and temperature variability produce conflicting pressures on both thermal performance and cell morphology. Lastly, we found a strong correlation between changes in cell morphology and TPC parameters in response to predation, suggesting that responses to opposing selective pressures could be constrained by trade-offs. Our results shed new light on how environmental and ecological pressures interact to elicit changes in characteristics at both the individual and population levels. We further suggest that morphological responses to interactive environmental forces may modulate population-level responses, making prediction of long-term responses to environmental change challenging.

Reduced body sizes in climate-impacted Borneo moth assemblages are primarily explained by range shifts

Both community composition changes due to species redistribution and within-species size shifts may alter body-size structures under climate warming. Here we assess the relative contribution of these processes in community-level body-size changes in tropical moth assemblages that moved uphill during a period of warming. Based on resurvey data for seven assemblages of geometrid moths (>8000 individuals) on Mt. Kinabalu, Borneo, in 1965 and 2007, we show significant wing-length reduction (mean shrinkage of 1.3% per species). Range shifts explain most size restructuring, due to uphill shifts of relatively small species, especially at high elevations. Overall, mean forewing length shrank by ca. 5%, much of which is accounted for by species range boundary shifts (3.9%), followed by within-boundary distribution changes (0.5%), and within-species size shrinkage (0.6%). We conclude that the effects of range shifting predominate, but considering species physiological responses is also important for understanding community size reorganization under climate warming.

Body size shifts under climate change may arise from species range shifts, intraspecific size shifts, or both. Here the authors show that body size reduction in moth assemblages on Mt. Kinabalu, Borneo, over 42 years are driven more by species range shifts than by within-species shrinkage.

Thermal biology and swimming performance of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)

Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) are two commercially important marine fishes impacted by both overfishing and climate change. Increasing ocean temperatures are affecting the physiology of these species and causing changes in distribution, growth, and maturity. While the physiology of cod has been well investigated, that of haddock has received very little attention. Here, we measured the metabolic response to increasing temperatures, as well as the critical thermal maximum (CT_max), of cod acclimated to 8 and 12 °C and haddock acclimated to 12 °C. We also compared the swimming performance (critical swimming speed, U_crit) of cod and haddock at 12 °C, as well as the U_crit of 12 °C-acclimated cod acutely exposed to a higher-than-optimal temperature (16 °C). The CT_max for cod was 21.4 and 23.0 °C for 8- and 12 °C-acclimated fish, respectively, whereas that for the 12 °C-acclimated haddock was 23.9 °C. These values were all significantly different and show that haddock are more tolerant of high temperatures. The aerobic maximum metabolic rate (MMR) of swimming cod remained high at 16 °C, suggesting that maximum oxygen transport capacity was not limited at a temperature above optimal in this species. However, signs of impaired swimming (struggling) were becoming evident at 16 °C. Haddock were found to reach a higher U_crit than cod at 12 °C (3.02 vs. 2.62 body lengths s⁻¹, respectively), and at a lower MMR. Taken together, these results suggest that haddock perform better than cod in warmer conditions, and that haddock are the superior swimmer amongst the two species.

Experimental evidence of gradual size-dependent shifts in body size and growth of fish in response to warming

A challenge facing ecologists trying to predict responses to climate change is the few recent analogous conditions to use for comparison. For example, negative relationships between ectotherm body size and temperature are common both across natural thermal gradients and in small-scale experiments. However, it is unknown if short-term body size responses are representative of long-term responses. Moreover, to understand population responses to warming, we must recognize that individual responses to temperature may vary over ontogeny. To enable predictions of how climate warming may affect natural populations, we therefore ask how body size and growth may shift in response to increased temperature over life history, and whether short- and long-term growth responses differ. We addressed these questions using a unique setup with multidecadal artificial heating of an enclosed coastal bay in the Baltic Sea and an adjacent reference area (both with unexploited populations), using before-after control-impact paired time-series analyses. We assembled individual growth trajectories of ~13,000 unique individuals of Eurasian perch and found that body growth increased substantially after warming, but the extent depended on body size: Only among small-bodied perch did growth increase with temperature. Moreover, the strength of this response gradually increased over the 24 year warming period. Our study offers a unique example of how warming can affect fish populations over multiple generations, resulting in gradual changes in body growth, varying as organisms develop. Although increased juvenile growth rates are in line with predictions of the temperature-size rule, the fact that a larger body size at age was maintained over life history contrasts to that same rule. Because the artificially heated area is a contemporary system mimicking a warmer sea, our findings can aid predictions of fish responses to further warming, taking into account that growth responses may vary both over an individual's life history and over time.

Population density and temperature correlate with long-term trends in somatic growth rates and maturation schedules of herring and sprat

We examine long-term trends in the average growth rates and maturation schedules of herring and sprat populations using survey data collected from the North Sea and west of Scotland since the 1960s and 1980s respectively. Otolith age data and maturity data are used to calculate time series of mean lengths at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, and probabilistic maturation reaction norms. As the growth and maturation of fish is known to be influenced by temperature and stock abundances, we account for these variables using Generalised Additive Models. Each of the herring populations displayed either steady declines in mean length across multiple age groups, or declines in length followed years later by some recovery. Depending on region, lengths at age of sprat increased or decreased over time. Varying temporal trends in maturation propensity at age and length were observed across herring populations. Many of the trends in growth rate and maturation were correlated to population abundance and/or temperature. In general, abundance is shown to be negatively correlated to growth rates in herring and sprat, and positively correlated with maturation propensity in herring. Temperature is also shown to be correlated to growth and maturation, and although the effect is consistent within species, the temperature effects differ between herring and sprat. This study provides detailed information about long-term trends in growth and maturation, which is lacking for some of these pelagic stocks, especially in the west of Scotland.

Marine Metazoan Modern Mass Extinction: Improving Predictions by Integrating Fossil, Modern, and Physiological Data

Evolution, extinction, and dispersion are fundamental processes affecting marine biodiversity. Until recently, studies of extant marine systems focused mainly on evolution and dispersion, with extinction receiving less attention. Past extinction events have, however, helped shape the evolutionary history of marine ecosystems, with ecological and evolutionary legacies still evident in modern seas. Current anthropogenic global changes increase extinction risk and pose a significant threat to marine ecosystems, which are critical for human use and sustenance. The evaluation of these threats and the likely responses of marine ecosystems requires a better understanding of evolutionary processes that affect marine ecosystems under global change. Here, we discuss how knowledge of ( a) changes in biodiversity of ancient marine ecosystems to past extinctions events, ( b) the patterns of sensitivity and biodiversity loss in modern marine taxa, and ( c) the physiological mechanisms underpinning species' sensitivity to global change can be exploited and integrated to advance our critical thinking in this area.

The energetics of fish growth and how it constrains food-web trophic structure

The allocation of metabolic energy to growth fundamentally influences all levels of biological organisation. Here we use a first-principles theoretical model to characterise the energetics of fish growth at distinct ontogenetic stages and in distinct thermal regimes. Empirically, we show that the mass scaling of growth rates follows that of metabolic rate, and is somewhat steeper at earlier ontogenetic stages. We also demonstrate that the cost of growth, E_m , varies substantially among fishes, and that it may increase with temperature, trophic level and level of activity. Theoretically, we show that E_m is a primary determinant of the efficiency of energy transfer across trophic levels, and that energy is transferred more efficiently between trophic levels if the prey are young and sedentary. Overall, our study demonstrates the importance of characterising the energetics of individual growth in order to understand constraints on the structure of food webs and ecosystems.

The temperature-size rule in Daphnia magna across different genetic lines and ontogenetic stages: Multiple patterns and mechanisms

Ectotherms tend to grow faster, but reach a smaller size when reared under warmer conditions. This temperature-size rule (TSR) is a widespread phenomenon. Despite the generality of this pattern, no general explanation has been found. We therefore tested the relative importance of two proposed mechanisms for the TSR: (1) a stronger increase in development rate relative to growth rate at higher temperatures, which would cause a smaller size at maturity, and (2) resource limitation placing stronger constraints on growth in large individuals at higher temperatures, which would cause problems with attaining a large size in warm conditions. We raised Daphnia magna at eight temperatures to assess their size at maturity, asymptotic size, and size of their offspring. We used three clonal lines that differed in asymptotic size and growth rate. A resource allocation model was developed and fitted to our empirical data to explore the effect of both mechanisms for the TSR. The genetic lines of D. magna showed different temperature dependence of growth and development rates resulting in different responses for size at maturity. Also, at warm temperatures, growth was constrained in large, but not in small individuals. The resource allocation model could fit these empirical data well. Based on our empirical results and model explorations, the TSR of D. magna at maturity is best explained by a stronger increase in development rate relative to growth rate at high temperature, and the TSR at asymptotic size is best explained by a size-dependent and temperature-dependent constraint on growth, although resource limitation could also affect size at maturity. In conclusion, the TSR can take different forms for offspring size, size at maturity, and asymptotic size and each form can arise from its own mechanism, which could be an essential step toward finding a solution to this century-old puzzle.

Thermal affinity as the dominant factor changing Mediterranean fish abundances

Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empirical estimates of their relative importance. In this study, we focused on Eastern Mediterranean, a region exposed to an invasion of species of Red Sea origin, extreme climate change, and high fishing pressure. We estimated changes in fish abundance using two fish trawl surveys spanning a 20-year period, and correlated these changes with estimated sensitivity of species to the different stressors. We estimated sensitivity to invasion using the trait similarity between indigenous and nonindigenous species; sensitivity to fishing using a published composite index based on the species' life-history; and sensitivity to climate change using species climatic affinity based on occurrence data. Using both a meta-analytical method and random forest analysis, we found that for shallow-water species the most important driver of population size changes is sensitivity to climate change. Species with an affinity to warm climates increased in relative abundance and species with an affinity to cold climates decreased suggesting a strong response to warming local sea temperatures over recent decades. This decrease in the abundance of cold-water-associated species at the trailing "warm" end of their distribution has been rarely documented. Despite the immense biomass of nonindigenous species and the presumed high fishing pressure, these two latter factors seem to have only a minor role in explaining abundance changes. The decline in abundance of indigenous species of cold-water origin indicates a future major restructuring of fish communities in the Mediterranean in response to the ongoing warming, with unknown impacts on ecosystem function.

Remarkable size-spectra stability in a marine system undergoing massive invasion

The Mediterranean Sea is an invasion hotspot, with non-indigenous species suspected to be a major driver behind community changes. We used size spectra, a reliable index of food web structure, to examine how the influx of Red Sea fishes into the Mediterranean Sea has impacted the indigenous species community. This is the first attempt to use changes in the size spectra to reveal the effect of biological invasions. We used data from trawl catches along Israel's shoreline spanning 20 years to estimate changes in the community size spectra of both indigenous and non-indigenous species. We found that the relative biomass of non-indigenous species increased over the 20 years, especially for small and large species, leading to a convergence with the indigenous species size spectra. Hence, the biomass of indigenous and non-indigenous species has become identical for all size classes, suggesting similar energetic constraints and sensitivities to fishing. However, over this time period the size spectrum of indigenous species has remained remarkably constant. This suggests that the wide-scale invasion of non-indigenous species into the Mediterranean may have had little impact on the community structure of indigenous species.