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Etard A, Newbold T. Species-level correlates of land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity in terrestrial vertebrates. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2024; 38:e14208. [PMID: 37855148 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2023] [Revised: 08/31/2023] [Accepted: 10/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/20/2023]
Abstract
Land-use and climate change are major pressures on terrestrial biodiversity. Species' extinction risk and responses to human pressures relate to ecological traits and other characteristics in some clades. However, large-scale comparative assessments of the associations between traits and responses to multiple human pressures across multiple clades are needed. We investigated whether a set of ecological characteristics that are commonly measured across terrestrial vertebrates (ecological traits and geographic range area) are associated with species' responses to different land-use types and species' likely sensitivity to climate change. We aimed to test whether generalizable patterns in response to these pressures arise across both pressures and across vertebrate clades, which could inform assessments of the global signature of human pressures on vertebrate biodiversity and guide conservation efforts. At the species level, we investigated associations between land-use responses and ecological characteristics with a space-for-time substitution approach, making use of the PREDICTS database. We investigated associations between ecological characteristics and expected climate-change sensitivity, estimated from properties of species realized climatic niches. Among the characteristics we considered, 3 were consistently associated with strong land-use responses and high climate-change sensitivity across terrestrial vertebrate classes: narrow geographic range, narrow habitat breadth, and specialization on natural habitats (which described whether a species occurs in artificial habitats or not). The associations of other traits with species' land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity often depended on species' class and land-use type, highlighting an important degree of context dependency. In all classes, invertebrate eaters and fruit and nectar eaters tended to be negatively affected in disturbed land-use types, whereas invertebrate-eating and plant- and seed-eating birds were estimated to be more sensitive to climate change, raising concerns about the continuation of ecological processes sustained by these species under global changes. Our results highlight a consistently higher sensitivity of narrowly distributed species and habitat specialists to land-use and climate change, which provides support for capturing such characteristics in large-scale vulnerability assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adrienne Etard
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Tim Newbold
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK
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2
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Ding C, Newbold T, Ameca EI. Assessing the global vulnerability of dryland birds to heatwaves. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17136. [PMID: 38273501 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2023] [Revised: 12/11/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
As global average surface temperature increases, extreme climatic events such as heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, which can drive biodiversity responses such as rapid population declines and/or shifts in species distributions and even local extirpations. However, the impacts of extreme climatic events are largely ignored in conservation plans. Birds are known to be susceptible to heatwaves, especially in dryland ecosystems. Understanding which birds are most vulnerable to heatwaves, and where these birds occur, can offer a scientific basis for adaptive management and conservation. We assessed the relative vulnerability of 1196 dryland bird species to heatwaves using a trait-based approach. Among them, 888 bird species are estimated to be vulnerable to heatwaves (170 highly vulnerable, eight extremely vulnerable), of which ~91% are currently considered non-threatened by the IUCN, which suggests that many species will likely become newly threatened with intensifying climate change. We identified the top three hotspot areas of heatwave-vulnerable species in Australia (208 species), Southern Africa (125 species) and Eastern Africa (99 species). Populations of vulnerable species recorded in the Living Planet Database were found to be declining significantly faster than those of non-vulnerable species (p = .048) after heatwaves occurred. In contrast, no significant difference in population trends between vulnerable and non-vulnerable species was detected when no heatwave occurred (p = .34). This suggests that our vulnerability framework correctly identified vulnerable species and that heatwaves are already impacting the population trends of these species. Our findings will help prioritize heatwave-vulnerable birds in dryland ecosystems in risk mitigation and adaptation management as the frequency of heatwaves accelerates in the coming decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chenchen Ding
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Tim Newbold
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Eric I Ameca
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- Climate Change Specialist Group, Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland, Switzerland
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3
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Wei J, Xu F, Cole EF, Sheldon BC, de Boer WF, Wielstra B, Fu H, Gong P, Si Y. Spatially heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology induced by climate change threaten the integrity of the avian migration network. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17148. [PMID: 38273513 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17148] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Revised: 12/18/2023] [Accepted: 12/21/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
Phenological responses to climate change frequently vary among trophic levels, which can result in increasing asynchrony between the peak energy requirements of consumers and the availability of resources. Migratory birds use multiple habitats with seasonal food resources along migration flyways. Spatially heterogeneous climate change could cause the phenology of food availability along the migration flyway to become desynchronized. Such heterogeneous shifts in food phenology could pose a challenge to migratory birds by reducing their opportunity for food availability along the migration path and consequently influencing their survival and reproduction. We develop a novel graph-based approach to quantify this problem and deploy it to evaluate the condition of the heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology for 16 migratory herbivorous waterfowl species in Asia. We show that climate change-induced heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology could cause a 12% loss of migration network integrity on average across all study species. Species that winter at relatively lower latitudes are subjected to a higher loss of integrity in their migration network. These findings highlight the susceptibility of migratory species to climate change. Our proposed methodological framework could be applied to migratory species in general to yield an accurate assessment of the exposure under climate change and help to identify actions for biodiversity conservation in the face of climate-related risks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Wei
- Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Fei Xu
- Key Laboratory of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region's Eco-Environment, Ministry of Education, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China
| | - Ella F Cole
- Edward Grey Institute, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Ben C Sheldon
- Edward Grey Institute, Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Willem F de Boer
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Ben Wielstra
- Institute of Biology Leiden, Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands
- Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Haohuan Fu
- Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Gong
- Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
- Department of Geography, Department of Earth Sciences, Institute for Climate and Carbon Neutrality, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Yali Si
- Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
- Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands
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4
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Johnson CA, Ren R, Buckley LB. Temperature Sensitivity of Fitness Components across Life Cycles Drives Insect Responses to Climate Change. Am Nat 2023; 202:753-766. [PMID: 38033177 DOI: 10.1086/726896] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2023]
Abstract
AbstractThermal performance curves (TPCs) are increasingly used as a convenient approach to predict climate change impacts on ectotherms that accounts for organismal thermal sensitivity; however, directly applying TPCs to temperature data to estimate fitness has yielded contrasting predictions depending on assumptions regarding climate variability. We compare direct application of TPCs to an approach integrating TPCs for different fitness components (e.g., per capita birth rate, adult life span) across ectotherm life cycles into a population dynamic model, which we independently validated with census data and applied to hemipteran insect populations across latitude. The population model predicted that climate change will reduce insect fitness more at higher latitudes due to its effects on survival but will reduce net reproductive rate more at lower latitudes due to its effects on fecundity. Directly applying TPCs underestimated climate change impacts on fitness relative to incorporating the TPCs into the population model due to simplifying survival dynamics across the life cycle. The population model predicted that climate change will reduce mean insect density and increase population variability at higher latitudes via reduced survival, despite faster development and a longer activity period. Our study highlights the importance of considering how multiple fitness components respond to climate variability across the life cycle to better understand and anticipate the ecological consequence of climate change.
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Lettrich MD, Asaro MJ, Borggaard DL, Dick DM, Griffis RB, Litz JA, Orphanides CD, Palka DL, Soldevilla MS, Balmer B, Chavez S, Cholewiak D, Claridge D, Ewing RY, Fazioli KL, Fertl D, Fougeres EM, Gannon D, Garrison L, Gilbert J, Gorgone A, Hohn A, Horstman S, Josephson B, Kenney RD, Kiszka JJ, Maze-Foley K, McFee W, Mullin KD, Murray K, Pendleton DE, Robbins J, Roberts JJ, Rodriguez- Ferrer G, Ronje EI, Rosel PE, Speakman T, Stanistreet JE, Stevens T, Stolen M, Moore RT, Vollmer NL, Wells R, Whitehead HR, Whitt A. Vulnerability to climate change of United States marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0290643. [PMID: 37729181 PMCID: PMC10511136 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290643] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Accepted: 08/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (projected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew D. Lettrich
- ECS Under Contract for Office of Science and Technology, NOAA Fisheries, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Michael J. Asaro
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Diane L. Borggaard
- Greater Atlantic Regional Fisheries Office, NOAA Fisheries, Gloucester, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Dorothy M. Dick
- Office of Protected Resources, NOAA Fisheries, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Roger B. Griffis
- Office of Science and Technology, NOAA Fisheries, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Jenny A. Litz
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - Christopher D. Orphanides
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Debra L. Palka
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Melissa S. Soldevilla
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - Brian Balmer
- Dolphin Relief and Research, Clancy, Montana, United States of America
| | - Samuel Chavez
- Integrated Statistics, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Danielle Cholewiak
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Diane Claridge
- Bahamas Marine Mammal Research Organisation, Marsh Harbour, Abaco, Bahamas
| | - Ruth Y. Ewing
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - Kristi L. Fazioli
- Environmental Institute of Houston, University of Houston ‐ Clear Lake, Houston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Dagmar Fertl
- Ziphius EcoServices, Magnolia, Texas, United States of America
| | - Erin M. Fougeres
- Southeast Regional Office, NOAA Fisheries, Saint Petersburg, Florida, United States of America
| | - Damon Gannon
- University of Georgia Marine Institute, Sapelo Island, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Lance Garrison
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - James Gilbert
- University of Maine, Orono, Maine, United States of America
| | - Annie Gorgone
- CIMAS, University of Miami, Under Contract for NOAA Fisheries Southeast Fisheries Science Center, Beaufort, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Aleta Hohn
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Beaufort, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Stacey Horstman
- Southeast Regional Office, NOAA Fisheries, Saint Petersburg, Florida, United States of America
| | - Beth Josephson
- Integrated Statistics, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Robert D. Kenney
- Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, Rhode Island, United States of America
| | - Jeremy J. Kiszka
- Department of Biological Sciences, Institute of Environment, Florida International University, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - Katherine Maze-Foley
- CIMAS, University of Miami, Under Contract for Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - Wayne McFee
- National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Charleston, South Carolina, United States of America
| | - Keith D. Mullin
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Pascagoula, Mississippi, United States of America
| | - Kimberly Murray
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Daniel E. Pendleton
- Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life at the New England Aquarium, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Jooke Robbins
- Center for Coastal Studies, Provincetown, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Jason J. Roberts
- Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America
| | | | - Errol I. Ronje
- National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA, Stennis Space Center, Hancock County, Mississippi, United States of America
| | - Patricia E. Rosel
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Lafayette, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Todd Speakman
- National Marine Mammal Foundation, Charleston, South Carolina, United States of America
| | | | - Tara Stevens
- CSA Ocean Sciences, East Greenwich, Rhode Island, United States of America
| | - Megan Stolen
- Blue World Research Institute, Merritt Island, Florida, United States of America
| | - Reny Tyson Moore
- Sarasota Dolphin Research Program, Chicago Zoological Society, Sarasota, Florida, United States of America
| | - Nicole L. Vollmer
- CIMAS, University of Miami, Under Contract for Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Lafayette, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Randall Wells
- Sarasota Dolphin Research Program, Chicago Zoological Society, Sarasota, Florida, United States of America
| | - Heidi R. Whitehead
- Texas Marine Mammal Stranding Network, Galveston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Amy Whitt
- Azura Consulting, Garland, Texas, United States of America
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6
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Cheng X, Han Y, Lin J, Jiang F, Cai Q, Shi Y, Cui D, Wen X. Time to Step Up Conservation: Climate Change Will Further Reduce the Suitable Habitats for the Vulnerable Species Marbled Polecat ( Vormela peregusna). Animals (Basel) 2023; 13:2341. [PMID: 37508118 PMCID: PMC10376176 DOI: 10.3390/ani13142341] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2023] [Revised: 07/12/2023] [Accepted: 07/14/2023] [Indexed: 07/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Habitat loss and human threats are putting the marbled polecat (Vormela peregusna) on the brink of extinction. Numerous recent studies have found that climate change will further deteriorate the living environment of endangered species, leading to their eventual extinction. In this study, we used the results of infrared camera surveys in China and worldwide distribution data to construct an ensemble model consisting of 10 commonly used ecological niche models to specify potential suitable habitat areas for V. peregusna under current conditions with similar environments to the sighting record sites. Changes in the suitable habitat for V. peregusna under future climate change scenarios were simulated using mid-century (2050s) and the end of the century (2090s) climate scenarios provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We evaluated the accuracy of the model to obtain the environmental probability values (cutoff) of the V. peregusna distribution, the current distribution of suitable habitats, and future changes in moderately and highly suitable habitat areas. The results showed that the general linear model (GLM) was the best single model for predicting suitable habitats for V. peregusna, and the kappa coefficient, area under the curve (AUC), and true skill statistic (TSS) of the ensemble model all exceeded 0.9, reflecting greater accuracy and stability than single models. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for V. peregusna reached 3935.92 × 104 km2, suggesting a wide distribution range. In the future, climate change is predicted to severely affect the distribution of V. peregusna and substantially reduce the area of suitable habitats for the species, with 11.91 to 33.55% of moderately and highly suitable habitat areas no longer suitable for the survival of V. peregusna. This shift poses an extremely serious challenge to the conservation of this species. We suggest that attention be given to this problem in Europe, especially the countries surrounding the Black Sea, Asia, China, and Mongolia, and that measures be taken, such as regular monitoring and designating protected areas for the conservation of vulnerable animals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaotian Cheng
- The Station of Forest Seedling Quarantine and Pest Management, Changji 831100, China
| | - Yamin Han
- The Station of Forest Seedling Quarantine and Pest Management, Changji 831100, China
| | - Jun Lin
- Locust and Rodent Control Headquarters of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830000, China
| | - Fan Jiang
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang 110031, China
| | - Qi Cai
- Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
| | - Yong Shi
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang 110031, China
| | - Dongyang Cui
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang 110031, China
| | - Xuanye Wen
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang 110031, China
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7
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Davis KP, Sofaer HR, Pejchar L. Land cover differentially affects abundance of common and rare birds. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:2999-3009. [PMID: 36974627 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16700] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2022] [Revised: 03/03/2023] [Accepted: 03/13/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
While rare species are vulnerable to global change, large declines in common species (i.e., those with large population sizes, large geographic distributions, and/or that are habitat generalists) also are of conservation concern. Understanding if and how commonness mediates species' responses to global change, including land cover change, can help guide conservation strategies. We explored avian population responses to land cover change along a gradient from common to rare species using avian data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and land cover data from the National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States. Specifically, we used generalized linear mixed effects models to ask if species' commonness affected the relationship between land cover and counts, using the initial amount of and change in land cover surrounding each North American BBS route from 2001 to 2016. We quantified species' commonness as a continuous metric at the national scale using the logarithm (base 10) of each species' total count across all routes in the conterminous United States in 2001. For our focal 15-year period, we found that higher proportions of initial natural land cover favored (i.e., were correlated with higher) counts of rare but not common species. We also found that commonness mediated how change in human land cover, but not natural land cover, was associated with species' counts at the end of the study period. Increases in developed lands did not favor counts of any species. Increases in agriculture and declines in pasture favored counts of common but not rare species. Our findings show a signal of commonness in how species respond to a major dimension of global change. Evaluating how and why commonness mediates species' responses to land cover change can help managers design conservation portfolios that sustain the spectrum of common to rare species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristin P Davis
- Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
- Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Helen R Sofaer
- U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Hawaii National Park, Hawaii, USA
| | - Liba Pejchar
- Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
- Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
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8
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Pinsky ML, Comte L, Sax DF. Unifying climate change biology across realms and taxa. Trends Ecol Evol 2022; 37:672-682. [PMID: 35610063 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2022.04.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2021] [Revised: 04/19/2022] [Accepted: 04/22/2022] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
A major challenge in modern biology is to understand extinction risk from climate change across all realms. Recent research has revealed that physiological tolerance, behavioral thermoregulation, and small elevation shifts are dominant coping strategies on land, whereas large-scale latitudinal shifts are more important in the ocean. Freshwater taxa may face the highest global extinction risks. Nevertheless, some species in each realm face similar risks because of shared adaptive, dispersal, or physiological tolerances and abilities. Taking a cross-realm perspective offers unique research opportunities because confounding physical factors in one realm are often disaggregated in another realm. Cross-realm, across taxa, and other forms of climate change biology synthesis are needed to advance our understanding of emergent patterns of risk across all life.
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Affiliation(s)
- Malin L Pinsky
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.
| | - Lise Comte
- School of Biological Sciences, Illinois State University, Normal, IL, USA
| | - Dov F Sax
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA; Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
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9
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Mérillet L, Robert M, Hernvann PY, Pecuchet L, Pavoine S, Mouchet M, Primicerio R, Kopp D. Effects of life-history traits and network topological characteristics on the robustness of marine food webs. Glob Ecol Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022] Open
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10
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Sousa A, Alves F, Arranz P, Dinis A, Fernandez M, González García L, Morales M, Lettrich M, Encarnação Coelho R, Costa H, Capela Lourenço T, Azevedo NMJ, Frazão Santos C. Climate change vulnerability of cetaceans in Macaronesia: Insights from a trait-based assessment. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 795:148652. [PMID: 34247086 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148652] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2021] [Revised: 05/28/2021] [Accepted: 06/20/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Over the last decades global warming has caused an increase in ocean temperature, acidification and oxygen loss which has led to changes in nutrient cycling and primary production affecting marine species at multiple trophic levels. While knowledge about the impacts of climate change in cetacean's species is still scarce, practitioners and policymakers need information about the species at risk to guide the implementation of conservation measures. To assess cetacean's vulnerability to climate change in the biogeographic region of Macaronesia, we adapted the Marine Mammal Climate Vulnerability Assessment (MMCVA) method and applied it to 21 species management units using an expert elicitation approach. Results showed that over half (62%) of the units assessed presented Very High (5 units) or High (8 units) vulnerability scores. Very High vulnerability scores were found in archipelago associated units of short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus) and common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), namely in the Canary Islands and Madeira, as well as Risso's dolphins (Grampus griseus) in the Canary Islands. Overall, certainty scores ranged from Very High to Moderate for 67% of units. Over 50% of units showed a high potential for distribution, abundance and phenology changes as a response to climate change. With this study we target current and future information needs of conservation managers in the region, and guide research and monitoring efforts, while contributing to the improvement and validation of trait-based vulnerability approaches under a changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Sousa
- Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal.
| | - F Alves
- MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre/ARDITI, Portugal; Oceanic Observatory of Madeira, Funchal, Portugal.
| | - P Arranz
- BIOECOMAC, Research group on Biodiversity, Marine Ecology and Conservation, University of La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain.
| | - A Dinis
- MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre/ARDITI, Portugal; Oceanic Observatory of Madeira, Funchal, Portugal.
| | - M Fernandez
- MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre/ARDITI, Portugal; Oceanic Observatory of Madeira, Funchal, Portugal; Azores Biodiversity Group and Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (CE3C), University of the Azores, Rua Mãe de Deus, 9500-321 Ponta Delgada, Portugal
| | - L González García
- Azores Biodiversity Group and Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (CE3C), University of the Azores, Rua Mãe de Deus, 9500-321 Ponta Delgada, Portugal; Futurismo Azores Adventures, Portas do Mar, loja 24-26, 9500-771, Ponta Delgada, São Miguel, Azores, Portugal
| | - M Morales
- Biosean Whale Watching & Marine Science, Marina Del Sur, Las Galletas, 38631 Tenerife, Spain.
| | - M Lettrich
- ECS, NOAA Fisheries Office of Science and Technology, United States of America.
| | - R Encarnação Coelho
- Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal.
| | - H Costa
- Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal.
| | - T Capela Lourenço
- Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal.
| | - N M J Azevedo
- Azores Biodiversity Group and Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (CE3C), University of the Azores, Rua Mãe de Deus, 9500-321 Ponta Delgada, Portugal.
| | - C Frazão Santos
- Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Avenida Nossa Senhora do Cabo 939, 2750-374 Cascais, Portugal; Environmental Economics Knowledge Center, Nova School of Business and Economics, New University of Lisbon, Rua da Holanda 1, 2775-405 Carcavelos, Portugal.
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11
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Buckley LB, Kingsolver JG. Evolution of Thermal Sensitivity in Changing and Variable Climates. ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY, EVOLUTION, AND SYSTEMATICS 2021. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-011521-102856] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
Evolutionary adaptation to temperature and climate depends on both the extent to which organisms experience spatial and temporal environmental variation (exposure) and how responsive they are to the environmental variation (sensitivity). Theoretical models and experiments suggesting substantial potential for thermal adaptation have largely omitted realistic environmental variation. Environmental variation can drive fluctuations in selection that slow adaptive evolution. We review how carefully filtering environmental conditions based on how organisms experience their environment and further considering organismal sensitivity can improve predictions of thermal adaptation. We contrast taxa differing in exposure and sensitivity. Plasticity can increase the rate of evolutionary adaptation in taxa exposed to pronounced environmental variation. However, forms of plasticity that severely limit exposure, such as behavioral thermoregulation and phenological shifts, can hinder thermal adaptation. Despite examples of rapid thermal adaptation, experimental studies often reveal evolutionary constraints. Further investigating these constraints and issues of timescale and thermal history are needed to predict evolutionary adaptation and, consequently, population persistence in changing and variable environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren B. Buckley
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195‐1800, USA
| | - Joel G. Kingsolver
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599, USA
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12
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Beissinger SR, Riddell EA. Why Are Species’ Traits Weak Predictors of Range Shifts? ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY, EVOLUTION, AND SYSTEMATICS 2021. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-012021-092849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
We examine the evidence linking species’ traits to contemporary range shifts and find they are poor predictors of range shifts that have occurred over decades to a century. We then discuss reasons for the poor performance of traits for describing interspecific variation in range shifts from two perspectives: ( a) factors associated with species’ traits that degrade range-shift signals stemming from the measures used for species’ traits, traits that are typically not analyzed, and the influence of phylogeny on range-shift potential and ( b) issues in quantifying range shifts and relating them to species’ traits due to imperfect detection of species, differences in the responses of altitudinal and latitudinal ranges, and emphasis on testing linear relationships between traits and range shifts instead of nonlinear responses. Improving trait-based approaches requires a recognition that traits within individuals interact in unexpected ways and that different combinations of traits may be functionally equivalent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven R. Beissinger
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
| | - Eric A. Riddell
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50050, USA
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13
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Leclerc C, Courchamp F, Bellard C. Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals. Nat Commun 2020; 11:4943. [PMID: 33009384 PMCID: PMC7532204 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18740-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2020] [Accepted: 08/28/2020] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity. Island ecosystems are notoriously vulnerable to anthropogenic species losses. Here, the authors identify insular hotspots of vulnerability to climate change (under RCPs 6.0 and 8.5) in mammals via a trait-based, quantitative vulnerability framework, finding that exposure to climate change is not a reliable proxy to assess species vulnerability, while sensitivity and adaptive capacity are crucial to understand vulnerability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Camille Leclerc
- Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique Evolution, 91405, Orsay, France. .,INRAE, Univ. of Aix Marseille, UMR RECOVER, Aix-en-Provence, France.
| | - Franck Courchamp
- Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique Evolution, 91405, Orsay, France
| | - Céline Bellard
- Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systématique Evolution, 91405, Orsay, France
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14
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Huang J, Li G, Lei H, Fan C, Tian C, Chen Q, Huang B, Li H, Lu Z, Feng H. Low-temperature derived temporal change in the vertical distribution of Sesamia inferens larvae in winter, with links to its latitudinal distribution. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0236174. [PMID: 32722719 PMCID: PMC7386632 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236174] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/29/2020] [Accepted: 06/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
To escape or alleviate low temperatures in winter, insects have evolved many behavioral and physiological strategies. The purple stem borer, Sesamia inferens (Walker) is currently reported to be expanding their northern distributions and causing damage to summer maize in Xinxiang, China. However, their method of coping with the lower temperature in the new northern breeding area in winter is largely unknown. This paper investigates the overwinter site of S. inferens, and identifies the cold hardiness of larvae collected from a new breeding area in winter and explores a potential distribution based on low temperature threshold and on species distribution model MaxEnt. The results show that the overwintering location of the S. inferens population is more likely to be underground with increasing latitude and the population gradually moved down the corn stalk and drilled completely underground in later winter (February) in the north. The cold hardiness test shows the species is a moderate freeze-tolerant one, and Supercooling Points (SCP), Freezing Points (FP) and the incidence of mortality during the middle of winter (January, SCP: -7.653, FP: -6.596) were significantly lower than early winter (October) or late winter (March). Distribution in the new expansion area was predicted and the survival probability area was below N 35° for the Air Lower Lethal Temperature (ALLT50) and below N 40° for the Underground Lower Lethal Temperature (ULLT50). The suitable habitat areas for S. inferens with MaxEnt were also below N 40°. This study suggests the overwinter strategies of S. inferens have led to the colonization of up to a five degree more northerly overwintering latitude.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianrong Huang
- Henan Key Laboratory of Crop Pest Control, MOA's Regional Key Lab of Crop IPM in Southern Part of Northern China; Institute of Plant Protection, Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Zhengzhou, China
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, United Kingdom
- * E-mail: (JH); (HF)
| | - Guoping Li
- Henan Key Laboratory of Crop Pest Control, MOA's Regional Key Lab of Crop IPM in Southern Part of Northern China; Institute of Plant Protection, Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Haixia Lei
- Xinyang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinyang, China
| | - Chunbin Fan
- Tianjing Beidagang Wetland Conservation Centre, Tianjing, China
| | - Caihong Tian
- Henan Key Laboratory of Crop Pest Control, MOA's Regional Key Lab of Crop IPM in Southern Part of Northern China; Institute of Plant Protection, Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Qi Chen
- Luohe Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Luohe, China
| | - Bo Huang
- Henan Key Laboratory of Crop Pest Control, MOA's Regional Key Lab of Crop IPM in Southern Part of Northern China; Institute of Plant Protection, Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Huilong Li
- Xinyang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinyang, China
| | - Zhaocheng Lu
- Xinyang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinyang, China
| | - Hongqiang Feng
- Henan Key Laboratory of Crop Pest Control, MOA's Regional Key Lab of Crop IPM in Southern Part of Northern China; Institute of Plant Protection, Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Zhengzhou, China
- * E-mail: (JH); (HF)
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15
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Fremout T, Thomas E, Gaisberger H, Van Meerbeek K, Muenchow J, Briers S, Gutierrez-Miranda CE, Marcelo-Peña JL, Kindt R, Atkinson R, Cabrera O, Espinosa CI, Aguirre-Mendoza Z, Muys B. Mapping tree species vulnerability to multiple threats as a guide to restoration and conservation of tropical dry forests. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:3552-3568. [PMID: 32020698 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2019] [Accepted: 12/30/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the vulnerability of tree species to anthropogenic threats is important for the efficient planning of restoration and conservation efforts. We quantified and compared the effects of future climate change and four current threats (fire, habitat conversion, overgrazing and overexploitation) on the 50 most common tree species of the tropical dry forests of northwestern Peru and southern Ecuador. We used an ensemble modelling approach to predict species distribution ranges, employed freely accessible spatial datasets to map threat exposures, and developed a trait-based scoring approach to estimate species-specific sensitivities, using differentiated trait weights in accordance with their expected importance in determining species sensitivities to specific threats. Species-specific vulnerability maps were constructed from the product of the exposure maps and the sensitivity estimates. We found that all 50 species face considerable threats, with an average of 46% of species' distribution ranges displaying high or very high vulnerability to at least one of the five threats. Our results suggest that current levels of habitat conversion, overexploitation and overgrazing pose larger threats to most of the studied species than climate change. We present a spatially explicit planning strategy for species-specific restoration and conservation actions, proposing management interventions to focus on (a) in situ conservation of tree populations and seed collection for tree planting activities in areas with low vulnerability to climate change and current threats; (b) ex situ conservation or translocation of populations in areas with high climate change vulnerability; and (c) active planting or assisted regeneration in areas under high current threat vulnerability but low climate change vulnerability, provided that interventions are in place to lower threat pressure. We provide an online, user-friendly tool to visualize both the vulnerability maps and the maps indicating priority restoration and conservation actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tobias Fremout
- Division of Forest, Nature and Landscape, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- Alliance Bioversity International - CIAT, Lima, Peru
| | - Evert Thomas
- Alliance Bioversity International - CIAT, Lima, Peru
| | | | - Koenraad Van Meerbeek
- Division of Forest, Nature and Landscape, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Jannes Muenchow
- Institute of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany
| | - Siebe Briers
- Division of Forest, Nature and Landscape, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | | | | | | | | | - Omar Cabrera
- Departamento de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, Loja, Ecuador
| | - Carlos I Espinosa
- Departamento de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, Loja, Ecuador
| | | | - Bart Muys
- Division of Forest, Nature and Landscape, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
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16
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McDonough MacKenzie C, Gallinat AS, Zipf L. Low-cost observations and experiments return a high value in plant phenology research. APPLICATIONS IN PLANT SCIENCES 2020; 8:e11338. [PMID: 32351799 PMCID: PMC7186900 DOI: 10.1002/aps3.11338] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2019] [Accepted: 12/03/2019] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Plant ecologists in the Anthropocene are tasked with documenting, interpreting, and predicting how plants respond to environmental change. Phenology, the timing of seasonal biological events including leaf-out, flowering, fruiting, and leaf senescence, is among the most visible and oft-recorded facets of plant ecology. Climate-driven shifts in plant phenology can alter reproductive success, interspecific competition, and trophic interactions. Low-cost phenology research, including observational records and experimental manipulations, is fundamental to our understanding of both the mechanisms and effects of phenological change in plant populations, species, and communities. Traditions of local-scale botanical phenology observations and data leveraged from written records and natural history collections provide the historical context for recent observations of changing phenologies. New technology facilitates expanding the spatial, taxonomic, and human interest in this research by combining contemporary field observations by researchers and open access community science (e.g., USA National Phenology Network) and available climate data. Established experimental techniques, such as twig cutting and common garden experiments, are low-cost methods for studying the mechanisms and drivers of plant phenology, enabling researchers to observe phenological responses under novel environmental conditions. We discuss the strengths, limitations, potential hidden costs (i.e., volunteer and student labor), and promise of each of these methods for addressing emerging questions in plant phenology research. Applied thoughtfully, economically, and creatively, many low-cost approaches offer novel opportunities to fill gaps in our geographic, taxonomic, and mechanistic understanding of plant phenology worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Amanda S. Gallinat
- Department of BiologyUtah State UniversityLoganUtah84322USA
- Ecology CenterUtah State UniversityLoganUtah84322USA
| | - Lucy Zipf
- Biology DepartmentBoston University5 Cummington MallBostonMassachusetts02215USA
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17
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Morecroft MD, Duffield S, Harley M, Pearce-Higgins JW, Stevens N, Watts O, Whitaker J. Measuring the success of climate change adaptation and mitigation in terrestrial ecosystems. Science 2020; 366:366/6471/eaaw9256. [PMID: 31831643 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw9256] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
Natural and seminatural ecosystems must be at the forefront of efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In the urgency of current circumstances, ecosystem restoration represents a range of available, efficient, and effective solutions to cut net greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. Although mitigation success can be measured by monitoring changing fluxes of greenhouse gases, adaptation is more complicated to measure, and reductions in a wide range of risks for biodiversity and people must be evaluated. Progress has been made in the monitoring and evaluation of adaptation and mitigation measures, but more emphasis on testing the effectiveness of proposed strategies is necessary. It is essential to take an integrated view of mitigation, adaptation, biodiversity, and the needs of people, to realize potential synergies and avoid conflict between different objectives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael D Morecroft
- Natural England, York YO1 7PX, UK. .,Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
| | | | - Mike Harley
- Climate Resilience Ltd., Stamford PE9 4AU, UK
| | - James W Pearce-Higgins
- British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK.,Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK
| | - Nicola Stevens
- Department of Zoology and Botany, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa
| | - Olly Watts
- Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Sandy SG19 2DL, UK
| | - Jeanette Whitaker
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK
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18
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Li J, Li D, Xue Y, Wu B, He X, Liu F. Identifying potential refugia and corridors under climate change: A case study of endangered Sichuan golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Qinling Mountains, China. Am J Primatol 2019; 80:e22929. [PMID: 30380174 PMCID: PMC6644296 DOI: 10.1002/ajp.22929] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2018] [Revised: 08/06/2018] [Accepted: 09/20/2018] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
Climate change threatens endangered species and challenges current conservation strategies. Effective conservation requires vulnerability assessments for species susceptible to climate change and adaptive strategies to mitigate threats associated with climate. In this paper, we used the Maxent to model the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Sichuan golden monkey Rhinopithecus roxellana. Our results showed that (i) suitable habitat for Sichuan golden monkey was predicted to decrease by 37% in 2050s under climate change; (ii) the mean elevations of suitable habitat in the 2050s was estimated to shift 160 m higher; (iii) nature reserves protect 62% of current suitable habitat and 56% of future suitable habitat; and (iv) 49% of current suitable habitat was predicted to be vulnerable to future climate change. Given these results, we proposed conservation implications to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Sichuan golden monkey, including adjusting range of national park, establishing habitat corridors, and conducting long‐term monitoring.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia Li
- Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry/Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment of State Forestry Administration, Haidian, Beijing, China.,Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, China
| | - Diqiang Li
- Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry/Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment of State Forestry Administration, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Yadong Xue
- Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry/Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment of State Forestry Administration, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Bo Wu
- Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaojia He
- The Administrative Center for China's Agenda 21, Beijing, China
| | - Fang Liu
- Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry/Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Environment of State Forestry Administration, Haidian, Beijing, China
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19
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Crozier LG, McClure MM, Beechie T, Bograd SJ, Boughton DA, Carr M, Cooney TD, Dunham JB, Greene CM, Haltuch MA, Hazen EL, Holzer DM, Huff DD, Johnson RC, Jordan CE, Kaplan IC, Lindley ST, Mantua NJ, Moyle PB, Myers JM, Nelson MW, Spence BC, Weitkamp LA, Williams TH, Willis-Norton E. Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0217711. [PMID: 31339895 PMCID: PMC6655584 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217711] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2019] [Accepted: 05/16/2019] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa G. Crozier
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Michelle M. McClure
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Tim Beechie
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Steven J. Bograd
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, California, United States of America
| | - David A. Boughton
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Mark Carr
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Thomas D. Cooney
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Jason B. Dunham
- Forest & Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America
| | - Correigh M. Greene
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Melissa A. Haltuch
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Elliott L. Hazen
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, California, United States of America
| | - Damon M. Holzer
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - David D. Huff
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Rachel C. Johnson
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Center for Watershed Sciences, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Chris E. Jordan
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Isaac C. Kaplan
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Steven T. Lindley
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Nathan J. Mantua
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Peter B. Moyle
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - James M. Myers
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Mark W. Nelson
- ECS Federal, Inc. Under Contract to Office of Sustainable Fisheries, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Brian C. Spence
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Laurie A. Weitkamp
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Thomas H. Williams
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Ellen Willis-Norton
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
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20
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de los Ríos C, Watson JE, Butt N. Persistence of methodological, taxonomical, and geographical bias in assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change: A review. Glob Ecol Conserv 2018. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2018.e00412] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/28/2022] Open
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