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Rodman KC, Davis KT, Parks SA, Chapman TB, Coop JD, Iniguez JM, Roccaforte JP, Sánchez Meador AJ, Springer JD, Stevens-Rumann CS, Stoddard MT, Waltz AEM, Wasserman TN. Refuge-yeah or refuge-nah? Predicting locations of forest resistance and recruitment in a fiery world. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:7029-7050. [PMID: 37706328 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16939] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2023] [Revised: 08/25/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 09/15/2023]
Abstract
Climate warming, land use change, and altered fire regimes are driving ecological transformations that can have critical effects on Earth's biota. Fire refugia-locations that are burned less frequently or severely than their surroundings-may act as sites of relative stability during this period of rapid change by being resistant to fire and supporting post-fire recovery in adjacent areas. Because of their value to forest ecosystem persistence, there is an urgent need to anticipate where refugia are most likely to be found and where they align with environmental conditions that support post-fire tree recruitment. Using biophysical predictors and patterns of burn severity from 1180 recent fire events, we mapped the locations of potential fire refugia across upland conifer forests in the southwestern United States (US) (99,428 km2 of forest area), a region that is highly vulnerable to fire-driven transformation. We found that low pre-fire forest cover, flat slopes or topographic concavities, moderate weather conditions, spring-season burning, and areas affected by low- to moderate-severity fire within the previous 15 years were most commonly associated with refugia. Based on current (i.e., 2021) conditions, we predicted that 67.6% and 18.1% of conifer forests in our study area would contain refugia under moderate and extreme fire weather, respectively. However, potential refugia were 36.4% (moderate weather) and 31.2% (extreme weather) more common across forests that experienced recent fires, supporting the increased use of prescribed and resource objective fires during moderate weather conditions to promote fire-resistant landscapes. When overlaid with models of tree recruitment, 23.2% (moderate weather) and 6.4% (extreme weather) of forests were classified as refugia with a high potential to support post-fire recruitment in the surrounding landscape. These locations may be disproportionately valuable for ecosystem sustainability, providing habitat for fire-sensitive species and maintaining forest persistence in an increasingly fire-prone world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kyle C Rodman
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Kimberley T Davis
- Fire Sciences Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Sean A Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Teresa B Chapman
- Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning Program, Chief Conservation Office, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, Virginia, USA
| | - Jonathan D Coop
- Clark School of Environment and Sustainability, Western Colorado University, Gunnison, Colorado, USA
| | - Jose M Iniguez
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - John P Roccaforte
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Andrew J Sánchez Meador
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Judith D Springer
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Camille S Stevens-Rumann
- Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
- Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Michael T Stoddard
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Amy E M Waltz
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Tzeidle N Wasserman
- Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
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2
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Gorta SBZ, Callaghan CT, Samonte F, Ooi MKJ, Mesaglio T, Laffan SW, Cornwell WK. Multi-taxon biodiversity responses to the 2019-2020 Australian megafires. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:6727-6740. [PMID: 37823682 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16955] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2022] [Revised: 08/29/2023] [Accepted: 09/05/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023]
Abstract
Conditions conducive to fires are becoming increasingly common and widespread under climate change. Recent fire events across the globe have occurred over unprecedented scales, affecting a diverse array of species and habitats. Understanding biodiversity responses to such fires is critical for conservation. Quantifying post-fire recovery is problematic across taxa, from insects to plants to vertebrates, especially at large geographic scales. Novel datasets can address this challenge. We use presence-only citizen science data from iNaturalist, collected before and after the 2019-2020 megafires in burnt and unburnt regions of eastern Australia, to quantify the effect of post-fire diversity responses, up to 18 months post-fire. The geographic, temporal, and taxonomic sampling of this dataset was large, but sampling effort and species discoverability were unevenly spread. We used rarefaction and prediction (iNEXT) with which we controlled sampling completeness among treatments, to estimate diversity indices (Hill numbers: q = 0-2) among nine broad taxon groupings and seven habitats, including 3885 species. We estimated an increase in species diversity up to 18 months after the 2019-2020 Australian megafires in regions which were burnt, compared to before the fires in burnt and unburnt regions. Diversity estimates in dry sclerophyll forest matched and likely drove this overall increase post-fire, while no taxon groupings showed clear increases inconsistent with both control treatments post-fire. Compared to unburnt regions, overall diversity across all taxon groupings and habitats greatly decreased in areas exposed to extreme fire severity. Post-fire life histories are complex and species detectability is an important consideration in all post-fire sampling. We demonstrate how fire characteristics, distinct taxa, and habitat influence biodiversity, as seen in local-scale datasets. Further integration of large-scale datasets with small-scale studies will lead to a more robust understanding of fire recovery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon B Z Gorta
- Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Corey T Callaghan
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Fort Lauderdale Research and Education Center, University of Florida, Davie, Florida, USA
| | - Fabrice Samonte
- Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Mark K J Ooi
- Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Thomas Mesaglio
- Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Shawn W Laffan
- Earth and Sustainability Science Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Will K Cornwell
- Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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3
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Thacker FEN, Ribau MC, Bartholomeus H, Stoof CR. What is a fire resilient landscape? Towards an integrated definition. AMBIO 2023; 52:1592-1602. [PMID: 37389758 PMCID: PMC10460754 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01891-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2023] [Revised: 05/31/2023] [Accepted: 06/05/2023] [Indexed: 07/01/2023]
Abstract
The concept of fire resilience has become increasingly relevant as society looks to understand and respond to recent wildfire events. In particular, the idea of a 'fire resilient landscape' is one which has been utilised to explore how society can coexist with wildfires. However, the concept of fire resilient landscapes has often been approached in silos, either from an environmental or social perspective; no integrated definition exists. Based on a synthesis of literature and a survey of scientists and practitioners, we propose to define a fire resilient landscape as 'a socio-ecological system that accepts the presence of fire, whilst preventing significant losses through landscape management, community engagement and effective recovery.' This common definition could help guide policy surrounding fire resilient landscapes, and exemplify how such landscapes could be initiated in practice. We explore the applicability of the proposed definition in both Mediterranean and temperate Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fiona E. Newman Thacker
- Soil, Physics and Land Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Marc Castellnou Ribau
- Catalan Fire Service, Bombers GRAF, Parc de Bombers de Cerdanyola del Vallès, Av. De Serragalliners, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
| | - Harm Bartholomeus
- Laboratory of Geo-Information Science and Remote Sensing, Wageningen University & Research, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Cathelijne R. Stoof
- Soil, Physics and Land Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
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Pradhan K, Ettinger AK, Case MJ, Hille Ris Lambers J. Applying climate change refugia to forest management and old-growth restoration. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:3692-3706. [PMID: 37029763 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16714] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2022] [Accepted: 03/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Recent studies highlight the potential of climate change refugia (CCR) to support the persistence of biodiversity in regions that may otherwise become unsuitable with climate change. However, a key challenge in using CCR for climate resilient management lies in how CCR may intersect with existing forest management strategies, and subsequently influence how landscapes buffer species from negative impacts of warming climate. We address this challenge in temperate coastal forests of the Pacific Northwestern United States, where declines in the extent of late-successional forests have prompted efforts to restore old-growth forest structure. One common approach for doing so involves selectively thinning forest stands to enhance structural complexity. However, dense canopy is a key forest feature moderating understory microclimate and potentially buffering organisms from climate change impacts, raising the possibility that approaches for managing forests for old-growth structure may reduce the extent and number of CCR. We used remotely sensed vegetation indices to identify CCR in an experimental forest with control and thinned (restoration) treatments, and explored the influence of biophysical variables on buffering capacity. We found that remotely sensed vegetation indices commonly used to identify CCR were associated with understory temperature and plant community composition, and thus captured aspects of landscape buffering that might instill climate resilience and be of interest to management. We then examined the interaction between current restoration strategies and CCR, and found that selective thinning for promoting old-growth structure had only very minor, if any, effects on climatic buffering. In all, our study demonstrates that forest management approaches aimed at restoring old-growth structure through targeted thinning do not greatly decrease buffering capacity, despite a known link between dense canopy and CCR. More broadly, this study illustrates the value of using remote sensing approaches to identify CCR, facilitating the integration of climate change adaptation with other forest management approaches.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kavya Pradhan
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | | | - Janneke Hille Ris Lambers
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Plant Ecology, Institute of Integrative Biology, d-USYS, Zürich, Switzerland
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5
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Fernández-Guisuraga JM, Martins S, Fernandes PM. Characterization of biophysical contexts leading to severe wildfires in Portugal and their environmental controls. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 875:162575. [PMID: 36871710 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162575] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2022] [Revised: 02/25/2023] [Accepted: 02/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Characterizing the fire regime in regions prone to extreme wildfire behavior is essential for providing comprehensive insights on potential ecosystem response to fire disturbance in the context of global change. We aimed to disentangle the linkage between contemporary damage-related attributes of wildfires as shaped by the environmental controls of fire behavior across mainland Portugal. We selected large wildfires (≥100 ha, n = 292) that occurred during the 2015-2018 period, covering the full spectrum of large fire-size variation. Ward's hierarchical clustering on principal components was used to identify homogeneous wildfire contexts at landscape scale on the basis of fire size, proportion of high fire severity, and fire severity variability, and their bottom-up (pre-fire fuel type fraction, topography) and top-down (fire weather) controls. Piecewise Structural Equation Modeling was used to disentangle the direct and indirect relationships between fire characteristics and fire behavior drivers. Cluster analysis evidenced severe and large wildfires in the central region of Portugal displaying consistent fire severity patterns. Thus, we found a positive relationship between fire size and proportion of high fire severity, which was mediated by distinct fire behavior drivers involving direct and indirect pathways. A high fraction of conifer forest within wildfire perimeters and extreme fire weather were primarily responsible for those interactions. In the context of global change, our results suggest that pre-fire fuel management should be targeted at expanding the fire weather settings in which fire control is feasible and promote less flammable and more resilient forest types.
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Affiliation(s)
- José Manuel Fernández-Guisuraga
- Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agroambientais e Biológicas, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal; Departamento de Biodiversidad y Gestión Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas y Ambientales, Universidad de León, 24071 León, Spain.
| | - Samuel Martins
- Instituto da Conservação da Natureza e Florestas, 5300-271 Bragança, Portugal
| | - Paulo M Fernandes
- Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agroambientais e Biológicas, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal
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6
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Geary WL, Tulloch AIT, Ritchie EG, Doherty TS, Nimmo DG, Maxwell MA, Wayne AF. Identifying historical and future global change drivers that place species recovery at risk. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:2953-2967. [PMID: 36864646 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16661] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2022] [Accepted: 11/28/2022] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Ecosystem management in the face of global change requires understanding how co-occurring threats affect species and communities. Such an understanding allows for effective management strategies to be identified and implemented. An important component of this is differentiating between factors that are within (e.g. invasive predators) or outside (e.g. drought, large wildfires) of a local manager's control. In the global biodiversity hotspot of south-western Australia, small- and medium-sized mammal species are severely affected by anthropogenic threats and environmental disturbances, including invasive predators, fire, and declining rainfall. However, the relative importance of different drivers has not been quantified. We used data from a long-term monitoring program to fit Bayesian state-space models that estimated spatial and temporal changes in the relative abundance of four threatened mammal species: the woylie (Bettongia penicillata), chuditch (Dasyurus geoffroii), koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula) and quenda (Isoodon fusciventor). We then use Bayesian structural equation modelling to identify the direct and indirect drivers of population changes, and scenario analysis to forecast population responses to future environmental change. We found that habitat loss or conversion and reduced primary productivity (caused by rainfall declines) had greater effects on species' spatial and temporal population change than the range of fire and invasive predator (the red fox Vulpes vulpes) management actions observed in the study area. Scenario analysis revealed that a greater extent of severe fire and further rainfall declines predicted under climate change, operating in concert are likely to further reduce the abundance of these species, but may be mitigated partially by invasive predator control. Considering both historical and future drivers of population change is necessary to identify the factors that risk species recovery. Given that both anthropogenic pressures and environmental disturbances can undermine conservation efforts, managers must consider how the relative benefit of conservation actions will be shaped by ongoing global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- William L Geary
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences (Burwood Campus), Centre for Integrative Ecology, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
- Biodiversity Division, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, East Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ayesha I T Tulloch
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- School of Biology and Environmental Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Euan G Ritchie
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences (Burwood Campus), Centre for Integrative Ecology, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - Tim S Doherty
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Dale G Nimmo
- Gulbali Institute, School of Agricultural, Environmental and Veterinary Sciences, Charles Sturt University, New South Wales, Albury, Australia
| | - Marika A Maxwell
- Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Manjimup, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Adrian F Wayne
- Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Manjimup, Western Australia, Australia
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7
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Collins L, Trouvé R, Baker PJ, Cirulus B, Nitschke CR, Nolan RH, Smith L, Penman TD. Fuel reduction burning reduces wildfire severity during extreme fire events in south-eastern Australia. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 343:118171. [PMID: 37245307 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Revised: 05/10/2023] [Accepted: 05/12/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Extreme fire events have increased across south-eastern Australia owing to warmer and drier conditions driven by anthropogenic climate change. Fuel reduction burning is widely applied to reduce the occurrence and severity of wildfires; however, targeted assessment of the effectiveness of this practice is limited, especially under extreme climatic conditions. Our study utilises fire severity atlases for fuel reduction burns and wildfires to examine: (i) patterns in the extent of fuel treatment within planned burns (i.e., burn coverage) across different fire management zones, and; (ii) the effect of fuel reduction burning on the severity of wildfires under extreme climatic conditions. We assessed the effect of fuel reduction burning on wildfire severity across temporal and spatial scales (i.e., point and local landscape), while accounting for burn coverage and fire weather. Fuel reduction burn coverage was substantially lower (∼20-30%) than desired targets in fuel management zones focused on asset protection, but within the desired range in zones that focus on ecological objectives. At the point scale, wildfire severity was moderated in treated areas for at least 2-3 years after fuel treatment in shrubland and 3-5 years in forests, relative to areas that did not receive fuel reduction treatments (i.e., unburnt patches). Fuel availability strongly limited fire occurrence and severity within the first 18 months of fuel reduction burning, irrespective of fire weather. Fire weather was the dominant driver of high severity canopy defoliating fire by ∼3-5 years after fuel treatment. At the local landscape scale (i.e., 250 ha), the extent of high canopy scorch decreased marginally as the extent of recently (<5 years) treated fuels increased, though there was a high level of uncertainty around the effect of recent fuel treatment. Our findings demonstrate that during extreme fire events, very recent (i.e., <3 years) fuel reduction burning can aid wildfire suppression locally (i.e., near assets) but will have a highly variable effect on the extent and severity of wildfires at larger scales. The patchy coverage of fuel reduction burns in the wildland-urban interface indicates that considerable residual fuel hazard will often be present within the bounds of fuel reduction burns.
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Affiliation(s)
- L Collins
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 Burnside Road West, Victoria, BC, V8Z 1M5, Canada; Department of Environment and Genetics, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria, 3086, Australia.
| | - R Trouvé
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, 3010, Australia
| | - P J Baker
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, 3010, Australia
| | - B Cirulus
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, 3363, Australia
| | - C R Nitschke
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, 3010, Australia
| | - R H Nolan
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, 2751, Australia; NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
| | - L Smith
- Forest Fire and Regions, Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, 1 Licola Rd, Heyfield, Victoria, 3858, Australia
| | - T D Penman
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, 3363, Australia
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Thorley J, Srivastava SK, Shapcott A. What type of rainforest burnt in the South East Queensland's 2019/20 bushfires and how might this impact biodiversity. AUSTRAL ECOL 2023. [DOI: 10.1111/aec.13293] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/09/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- James Thorley
- GeneCology Research Centre and School of Science, Technology and Engineering University of the Sunshine Coast Maroochydore Queensland Australia
| | - Sanjeev Kumar Srivastava
- GeneCology Research Centre and School of Science, Technology and Engineering University of the Sunshine Coast Maroochydore Queensland Australia
| | - Alison Shapcott
- GeneCology Research Centre and School of Science, Technology and Engineering University of the Sunshine Coast Maroochydore Queensland Australia
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9
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White JG, Sparrius J, Robinson T, Hale S, Lupone L, Healey T, Cooke R, Rendall AR. Can NDVI identify drought refugia for mammals and birds in mesic landscapes? THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 851:158318. [PMID: 36037901 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158318] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2022] [Revised: 08/23/2022] [Accepted: 08/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Refugia within landscapes are increasingly important as climate change intensifies, yet identifying refugia, and how they respond to climatic perturbations remains understudied. We use Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) developed during extreme drought to identify drought refugia. We then utilise camera trapping to understand the ecological role and importance of these refugia under fluctuating rainfall conditions. Ground foraging mammals and birds were surveyed annually from 2016 to 2019 whereby 171 remote-sensing cameras were deployed in the southern section of the Grampians, Australia. NDVI values were calculated during Australia's millennium drought, allowing the assessment of how NDVI calculated during extreme drought predicts drought refugia and the response of biodiversity to NDVI under rainfall fluctuations. Site occupancy of bird and mammal assemblages were dependent on NDVI, with areas of high NDVI during drought exhibiting characteristics consistent with refugia. Rainfall pulses increased site occupancy at all sites with colonisation probability initially associated with higher NDVI sites. Extinction probabilities were greatest at low NDVI sites when rainfall declined. Within mesic systems, remotely sensed NDVI can identify areas of the landscape that act as drought refugia enabling landscape management to prioritise species conservation within these areas. The protection and persistence of refugia is crucial in ensuring landscapes and their species communities therein are resilient to a range of climate change scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- John G White
- Deakin University, Geelong, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Engineering and the Built Environment, 221 Burwood Hwy, Burwood 3125, VIC, Australia.
| | - Jacinta Sparrius
- Deakin University, Geelong, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Engineering and the Built Environment, 221 Burwood Hwy, Burwood 3125, VIC, Australia
| | - Tomas Robinson
- Deakin University, Geelong, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Engineering and the Built Environment, 221 Burwood Hwy, Burwood 3125, VIC, Australia
| | - Susannah Hale
- Deakin University, Geelong, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Engineering and the Built Environment, 221 Burwood Hwy, Burwood 3125, VIC, Australia
| | - Luke Lupone
- Deakin University, Geelong, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Engineering and the Built Environment, 221 Burwood Hwy, Burwood 3125, VIC, Australia
| | - Tom Healey
- Deakin University, Geelong, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Engineering and the Built Environment, 221 Burwood Hwy, Burwood 3125, VIC, Australia
| | - Raylene Cooke
- Deakin University, Geelong, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Engineering and the Built Environment, 221 Burwood Hwy, Burwood 3125, VIC, Australia
| | - Anthony R Rendall
- Deakin University, Geelong, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Engineering and the Built Environment, 221 Burwood Hwy, Burwood 3125, VIC, Australia
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10
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Clarke H, Nolan RH, De Dios VR, Bradstock R, Griebel A, Khanal S, Boer MM. Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand. Nat Commun 2022; 13:7161. [PMID: 36418312 PMCID: PMC9684135 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34966-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2021] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hamish Clarke
- grid.1007.60000 0004 0486 528XCentre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfire, Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem Solutions, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia ,NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, Australia ,grid.1029.a0000 0000 9939 5719Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, Australia ,grid.1008.90000 0001 2179 088XSchool of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia
| | - Rachael H. Nolan
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, Australia ,grid.1029.a0000 0000 9939 5719Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, Australia
| | - Victor Resco De Dios
- grid.15043.330000 0001 2163 1432Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, Universitat de Lleida, Lérida, Spain ,JRU CTFC-AGROTECNIO-Cerca Center, Lérida, Spain ,grid.440649.b0000 0004 1808 3334School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China
| | - Ross Bradstock
- grid.1007.60000 0004 0486 528XCentre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfire, Centre for Sustainable Ecosystem Solutions, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia ,NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, Australia ,grid.502060.1Applied Bushfire Science Program, NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, Parramatta, Australia
| | - Anne Griebel
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, Australia ,grid.1029.a0000 0000 9939 5719Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, Australia
| | - Shiva Khanal
- grid.1029.a0000 0000 9939 5719Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, Australia
| | - Matthias M. Boer
- grid.1029.a0000 0000 9939 5719Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Richmond, Australia
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11
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Law BS, Madani G, Lloyd A, Gonsalves L, Hall L, Sujaraj A, Brassil T, Turbill C. Australia's 2019–20 mega‐fires are associated with lower occupancy of a rainforest‐dependent bat. Anim Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12805] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- B. S. Law
- Forest Science, NSW Primary Industries Australia
| | | | - A. Lloyd
- Department of Planning Industry and Environment Coffs Harbour NSW Australia
| | - L. Gonsalves
- Forest Science, NSW Primary Industries Australia
| | - L. Hall
- 148 Headland Drive Gerroa NSW Australia
| | - A. Sujaraj
- 66 Oatlands St Wentworthville NSW Australia
| | - T. Brassil
- Forest Science, NSW Primary Industries Australia
| | - C. Turbill
- School of Science Western Sydney University, Hawkesbury Campus Richmond NSW Australia
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12
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Braziunas KH, Abendroth DC, Turner MG. Young forests and fire: Using lidar–imagery fusion to explore fuels and burn severity in a subalpine forest reburn. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Kristin H. Braziunas
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
| | | | - Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
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13
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Thomsen AM, Ooi MKJ. Shifting season of fire and its interaction with fire severity: Impacts on reproductive effort in resprouting plants. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e8717. [PMID: 35342578 PMCID: PMC8931712 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8717] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2021] [Revised: 01/24/2022] [Accepted: 01/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Fire regimes shape plant communities but are shifting with changing climate. More frequent fires of increasing intensity are burning across a broader range of seasons. Despite this, impacts that changes in fire season have on plant populations, or how they interact with other fire regime elements, are still relatively understudied. We asked (a) how does the season of fire affect plant vigor, including vegetative growth and flowering after a fire event, and (b) do different functional resprouting groups respond differently to the effects of season of fire? We sampled a total of 887 plants across 36 sites using a space‐for‐time design to assess resprouting vigor and reproductive output for five plant species. Sites represented either a spring or autumn burn, aged one to three years old. Season of fire had the clearest impacts on flowering in Lambertia formosa with a 152% increase in the number of plants flowering and a 45% increase in number of flowers per plant after autumn compared with spring fires. There were also season × severity interactions for total flowers produced for Leptospermum polygalifolium and L. trinervium with both species producing greater flowering in autumn, but only after lower severity fires. Severity of fire was a more important driver in vegetative growth than fire season. Season of fire impacts have previously been seen as synonymous with the effects of fire severity; however, we found that fire season and severity can have clear and independent, as well as interacting, impacts on post‐fire vegetative growth and reproductive response of resprouting species. Overall, we observed that there were positive effects of autumn fires on reproductive traits, while vegetative growth was positively related to fire severity and pre‐fire plant size.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexandria M. Thomsen
- School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences Centre for Ecosystem Science University of New South Wales Sydney New South Wales Australia
| | - Mark K. J. Ooi
- School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences Centre for Ecosystem Science University of New South Wales Sydney New South Wales Australia
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub Sydney New South Wales Australia
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14
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Wilson N, Bradstock R, Bedward M. Influence of fuel structure derived from terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) on wildfire severity in logged forests. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 302:114011. [PMID: 34735830 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2021] [Revised: 10/20/2021] [Accepted: 10/24/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
CONTEXT Logging and wildfire can reduce the height of the forest canopy and the distance to the understorey vegetation below. These conditions may increase the likelihood of high severity wildfire (canopy scorch or consumption), which may explain the greater prevalence of high severity wildfire in some recently logged or burnt forests. However, the effects of these structural characteristics on wildfire severity have not clearly been demonstrated. OBJECTIVES We aimed to assess how the structure of forests affected by logging and wildfire influence the probability of high severity wildfire. METHODS We used terrestrial laser scanning to measure the connectivity of canopy and understorey vegetation in forests at various stages of recovery after logging and wildfire (approximately 0-80 years since disturbance). These sites were subsequently burnt by mixed severity wildfire during the 2019-20 'Black Summer' fire season in south-eastern Australia. We assessed how these forest structure metrics affected the probability of high severity wildfire. RESULTS The probability of high severity fire decreased as the canopy base height increased, and the distance between the canopy base and understorey increased. High severity wildfire was less likely in forests with taller understoreys and greater canopy or understorey cover, but these effects were not considered causal. Fire weather was the strongest driver of wildfire severity, which was also affected by topography. CONCLUSIONS These findings demonstrate a link between forest structure characteristics, that are strongly shaped by antecedent logging and fire, and fire severity. They also indicate that vertical fuel structure should be incorporated into assessments of fire risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas Wilson
- Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, 2522, Australia.
| | - Ross Bradstock
- Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, 2522, Australia
| | - Michael Bedward
- Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, 2522, Australia
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15
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Rainforest bird communities threatened by extreme fire. Glob Ecol Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01985] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
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16
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Nolan RH, Collins L, Leigh A, Ooi MKJ, Curran TJ, Fairman TA, Resco de Dios V, Bradstock R. Limits to post-fire vegetation recovery under climate change. PLANT, CELL & ENVIRONMENT 2021; 44:3471-3489. [PMID: 34453442 DOI: 10.1111/pce.14176] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2020] [Revised: 08/09/2021] [Accepted: 08/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Record-breaking fire seasons in many regions across the globe raise important questions about plant community responses to shifting fire regimes (i.e., changing fire frequency, severity and seasonality). Here, we examine the impacts of climate-driven shifts in fire regimes on vegetation communities, and likely responses to fire coinciding with severe drought, heatwaves and/or insect outbreaks. We present scenario-based conceptual models on how overlapping disturbance events and shifting fire regimes interact differently to limit post-fire resprouting and recruitment capacity. We demonstrate that, although many communities will remain resilient to changing fire regimes in the short-term, longer-term changes to vegetation structure, demography and species composition are likely, with a range of subsequent effects on ecosystem function. Resprouting species are likely to be most resilient to changing fire regimes. However, even these species are susceptible if exposed to repeated short-interval fire in combination with other stressors. Post-fire recruitment is highly vulnerable to increased fire frequency, particularly as climatic limitations on propagule availability intensify. Prediction of community responses to fire under climate change will be greatly improved by addressing knowledge gaps on how overlapping disturbances and climate change-induced shifts in fire regime affect post-fire resprouting, recruitment, growth rates, and species-level adaptation capacity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachael H Nolan
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Luke Collins
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Ecology, Environment & Evolution, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Canada
| | - Andy Leigh
- School of Life Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, Broadway, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Mark K J Ooi
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
- School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Timothy J Curran
- Department of Pest-management and Conservation, Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand
| | - Thomas A Fairman
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia
| | - Víctor Resco de Dios
- School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China
- Joint Research Unit CTFC-AGROTECNIO, University of Lleida, Lleida, Spain
- Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, University of Lleida, Lleida, Spain
| | - Ross Bradstock
- NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
- Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
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17
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Lindenmayer D, Taylor C, Blanchard W. Empirical analyses of the factors influencing fire severity in southeastern Australia. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3721] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- David Lindenmayer
- Fenner School of Environment & Society The Australian National University Canberra Australian Capital Territory 2601 Australia
| | - Chris Taylor
- Fenner School of Environment & Society The Australian National University Canberra Australian Capital Territory 2601 Australia
| | - Wade Blanchard
- Fenner School of Environment & Society The Australian National University Canberra Australian Capital Territory 2601 Australia
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18
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Downing WM, Meigs GW, Gregory MJ, Krawchuk MA. Where and why do conifer forests persist in refugia through multiple fire events? GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:3642-3656. [PMID: 33896078 PMCID: PMC8362119 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15655] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2020] [Revised: 04/02/2021] [Accepted: 04/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Changing wildfire regimes are causing rapid shifts in forests worldwide. In particular, forested landscapes that burn repeatedly in relatively quick succession may be at risk of conversion when pre-fire vegetation cannot recover between fires. Fire refugia (areas that burn less frequently or severely than the surrounding landscape) support post-fire ecosystem recovery and the persistence of vulnerable species in fire-prone landscapes. Observed and projected fire-induced forest losses highlight the need to understand where and why forests persist in refugia through multiple fires. This research need is particularly acute in the Klamath-Siskiyou ecoregion of southwest Oregon and northwest California, USA, where expected increases in fire activity and climate warming may result in the loss of up to one-third of the region's conifer forests, which are the most diverse in western North America. Here, we leverage recent advances in fire progression mapping and weather interpolation, in conjunction with a novel application of satellite smoke imagery, to model the key controls on fire refugia occurrence and persistence through one, two, and three fire events over a 32-year period. Hotter-than-average fire weather was associated with lower refugia probability and higher fire severity. Refugia that persisted through three fire events appeared to be partially entrained by landscape features that offered protection from fire, suggesting that topographic variability may be an important stabilizing factor as forests pass through successive fire filters. In addition, smoke density strongly influenced fire effects, with fire refugia more likely to occur when smoke was moderate or dense in the morning, a relationship attributable to reduced incoming solar radiation resulting from smoke shading. Results from this study could inform management strategies designed to protect fire-resistant portions of biologically and topographically diverse landscapes.
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Affiliation(s)
- William M. Downing
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and SocietyCollege of ForestryOregon State UniversityCorvallisOR97331USA
| | - Garrett W. Meigs
- Washington State Department of Natural ResourcesOlympiaWA98504USA
| | - Matthew J. Gregory
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and SocietyCollege of ForestryOregon State UniversityCorvallisOR97331USA
| | - Meg A. Krawchuk
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and SocietyCollege of ForestryOregon State UniversityCorvallisOR97331USA
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19
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Baranowski K, Faust C, Eby P, Bharti N. Quantifying the impacts of Australian bushfires on native forests and gray-headed flying foxes. Glob Ecol Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01566] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022] Open
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20
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Connell J, Hall MA, Nimmo DG, Watson SJ, Clarke MF. Fire, drought and flooding rains: The effect of climatic extremes on bird species’ responses to time since fire. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jemima Connell
- Department of Ecology, Environment and EvolutionLa Trobe University Bundoora VIC Australia
| | - Mark A. Hall
- Department of Ecology, Environment and EvolutionLa Trobe University Bundoora VIC Australia
- Hawkesbury Institute for the EnvironmentWestern Sydney University Penrith NSW Australia
| | - Dale G. Nimmo
- School of Environmental Science Institute for Land, Water and Society Charles Sturt University Albury NSW Australia
| | - Simon J. Watson
- Department of Ecology, Environment and EvolutionLa Trobe University Bundoora VIC Australia
| | - Michael F. Clarke
- Department of Ecology, Environment and EvolutionLa Trobe University Bundoora VIC Australia
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21
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Hale S, Mendoza L, Yeatman T, Cooke R, Doherty T, Nimmo D, White JG. Evidence that post‐fire recovery of small mammals occurs primarily via in situ survival. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13283] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Susannah Hale
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences Deakin University Geelong Vic. Australia
| | - Lorissa Mendoza
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences Deakin University Geelong Vic. Australia
| | - Tom Yeatman
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences Deakin University Geelong Vic. Australia
| | - Raylene Cooke
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences Deakin University Geelong Vic. Australia
| | - Tim Doherty
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences Deakin University Geelong Vic. Australia
| | - Dale Nimmo
- School of Environmental Science Institute for Land, Water and Society Charles Sturt University Albury NSW Australia
| | - John G. White
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences Deakin University Geelong Vic. Australia
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22
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Geary WL, Buchan A, Allen T, Attard D, Bruce MJ, Collins L, Ecker TE, Fairman TA, Hollings T, Loeffler E, Muscatello A, Parkes D, Thomson J, White M, Kelly E. Responding to the biodiversity impacts of a megafire: A case study from south‐eastern Australia’s Black Summer. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13292] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- William L. Geary
- Biodiversity Strategy and Knowledge Branch Biodiversity Division Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning East Melbourne Vic. Australia
- Centre for Integrative Ecology School of Life and Environmental Sciences Deakin University Geelong Vic. Australia
| | - Anne Buchan
- Biodiversity Strategy and Knowledge Branch Biodiversity Division Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning East Melbourne Vic. Australia
| | - Teigan Allen
- Biodiversity Strategy and Knowledge Branch Biodiversity Division Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning East Melbourne Vic. Australia
| | - David Attard
- Biodiversity Strategy and Knowledge Branch Biodiversity Division Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning East Melbourne Vic. Australia
| | - Matthew J. Bruce
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning Heidelberg Vic. Australia
| | - Luke Collins
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning Heidelberg Vic. Australia
- Research Centre for Future Landscapes La Trobe University Bundoora Vic. Australia
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Evolution La Trobe University Bundoora Vic. Australia
| | - Tiarne E. Ecker
- Biodiversity Strategy and Knowledge Branch Biodiversity Division Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning East Melbourne Vic. Australia
| | - Thomas A. Fairman
- Forests, Fire and Regions Group Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning East Melbourne Vic. Australia
| | - Tracey Hollings
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning Heidelberg Vic. Australia
| | - Ella Loeffler
- Biodiversity Strategy and Knowledge Branch Biodiversity Division Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning East Melbourne Vic. Australia
| | - Angela Muscatello
- Biodiversity Strategy and Knowledge Branch Biodiversity Division Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning East Melbourne Vic. Australia
| | - David Parkes
- Biodiversity Strategy and Knowledge Branch Biodiversity Division Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning East Melbourne Vic. Australia
| | - Jim Thomson
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning Heidelberg Vic. Australia
| | - Matt White
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning Heidelberg Vic. Australia
| | - Ella Kelly
- Biodiversity Strategy and Knowledge Branch Biodiversity Division Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning East Melbourne Vic. Australia
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23
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The Effect of Antecedent Fire Severity on Reburn Severity and Fuel Structure in a Resprouting Eucalypt Forest in Victoria, Australia. FORESTS 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/f12040450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
Research highlights—Feedbacks between fire severity, vegetation structure and ecosystem flammability are understudied in highly fire-tolerant forests that are dominated by epicormic resprouters. We examined the relationships between the severity of two overlapping fires in a resprouting eucalypt forest and the subsequent effect of fire severity on fuel structure. We found that the likelihood of a canopy fire was the highest in areas that had previously been exposed to a high level of canopy scorch or consumption. Fuel structure was sensitive to the time since the previous canopy fire, but not the number of canopy fires. Background and Objectives—Feedbacks between fire and vegetation may constrain or amplify the effect of climate change on future wildfire behaviour. Such feedbacks have been poorly studied in forests dominated by highly fire-tolerant epicormic resprouters. Here, we conducted a case study based on two overlapping fires within a eucalypt forest that was dominated by epicormic resprouters to examine (1) whether past wildfire severity affects future wildfire severity, and (2) how combinations of understorey fire and canopy fire within reburnt areas affect fuel properties. Materials and Methods—The study focused on ≈77,000 ha of forest in south-eastern Australia that was burnt by a wildfire in 2007 and reburnt in 2013. The study system was dominated by eucalyptus trees that can resprout epicormically following fires that substantially scorch or consume foliage in the canopy layer. We used satellite-derived mapping to assess whether the severity of the 2013 fire was affected by the severity of the 2007 fire. Five levels of fire severity were considered (lowest to highest): unburnt, low canopy scorch, moderate canopy scorch, high canopy scorch and canopy consumption. Field surveys were then used to assess whether combinations of understorey fire (<80% canopy scorch) and canopy fire (>90% canopy consumption) recorded over the 2007 and 2013 fires caused differences in fuel structure. Results—Reburn severity was influenced by antecedent fire severity under severe fire weather, with the likelihood of canopy-consuming fire increasing with increasing antecedent fire severity up to those classes causing a high degree of canopy disturbance (i.e., high canopy scorch or canopy consumption). The increased occurrence of canopy-consuming fire largely came at the expense of the moderate and high canopy scorch classes, suggesting that there was a shift from crown scorch to crown consumption. Antecedent fire severity had little effect on the severity patterns of the 2013 fire under nonsevere fire weather. Areas affected by canopy fire in 2007 and/or 2013 had greater vertical connectivity of fuels than sites that were reburnt by understorey fires, though we found no evidence that repeated canopy fires were having compounding effects on fuel structure. Conclusions—Our case study suggests that exposure to canopy-defoliating fires has the potential to increase the severity of subsequent fires in resprouting eucalypt forests in the short term. We propose that the increased vertical connectivity of fuels caused by resprouting and seedling recruitment were responsible for the elevated fire severity. The effect of antecedent fire severity on reburn severity will likely be constrained by a range of factors, such as fire weather.
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24
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Rowley JJL, Callaghan CT, Cornwell WK. Widespread short‐term persistence of frog species after the 2019–2020 bushfires in eastern Australia revealed by citizen science. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jodi J. L. Rowley
- Australian Museum Research Institute; Australian Museum Sydney New South Wales Australia
- Centre for Ecosystem Science; School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney Sydney New South Wales Australia
| | - Corey T. Callaghan
- Centre for Ecosystem Science; School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney Sydney New South Wales Australia
- Ecology & Evolution Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney Sydney New South Wales Australia
| | - William K. Cornwell
- Centre for Ecosystem Science; School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney Sydney New South Wales Australia
- Ecology & Evolution Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney Sydney New South Wales Australia
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25
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Preliminary Utility of the Retrospective IMERG Precipitation Product for Large-Scale Drought Monitoring over Mainland China. REMOTE SENSING 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/rs12182993] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
This study evaluated the suitability of the latest retrospective Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement V06 (IMERG) Final Run product with a relatively long period (beginning from June 2000) for drought monitoring over mainland China. First, the accuracy of IMERG was evaluated by using observed precipitation data from 807 meteorological stations at multiple temporal (daily, monthly, and yearly) and spatial (pointed and regional) scales. Second, the IMERG-based standardized precipitation index (SPI) was validated and analyzed through statistical indicators. Third, a light–extreme–light drought-event process was adopted as the case study to dissect the latent performance of IMERG-based SPI in capturing the spatiotemporal variation of drought events. Our results demonstrated a sufficient consistency and small error of the IMERG precipitation data against the gauge observations with the regional mean correlation coefficient (CC) at the daily (0.7), monthly (0.93), and annual (0.86) scales for mainland China. The IMERG possessed a strong capacity for estimating intra-annual precipitation changes; especially, it performed well at the monthly scale. There was a strong agreement between the IMERG-based SPI values and gauge-based SPI values for drought monitoring in most regions in China (with CCs above 0.8). In contrast, there was a comparatively poorer capability and notably higher heterogeneity in the Xinjiang and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau regions with more widely varying statistical metrics. The IMERG featured the advantage of satisfactory spatiotemporal accuracy in terms of depicting the onset and extinction of representative drought disasters for specific consecutive months. Furthermore, the IMERG has obvious drought monitoring abilities, which was also complemented when compared with the Precipitation Estimation from the Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42V7. The outcomes of this study demonstrate that the retrospective IMERG can provide a more competent data source and potential opportunity for better drought monitoring utility across mainland China, particularly for eastern China.
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26
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Holz A, Wood SW, Ward C, Veblen TT, Bowman DMJS. Population collapse and retreat to fire refugia of the Tasmanian endemic conifer Athrotaxis selaginoides following the transition from Aboriginal to European fire management. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:3108-3121. [PMID: 32125058 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2019] [Accepted: 01/02/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Untangling the nuanced relationships between landscape, fire disturbance, human agency, and climate is key to understanding rapid population declines of fire-sensitive plant species. Using multiple lines of evidence across temporal and spatial scales (vegetation survey, stand structure analysis, dendrochronology, and fire history reconstruction), we document landscape-scale population collapse of the long-lived, endemic Tasmanian conifer Athrotaxis selaginoides in remote montane catchments in southern Tasmania. We contextualized the findings of this field-based study with a Tasmanian-wide geospatial analysis of fire-killed and unburned populations of the species. Population declines followed European colonization commencing in 1802 ad that disrupted Aboriginal landscape burning. Prior to European colonization, fire events were infrequent but frequency sharply increased afterwards. Dendrochronological analysis revealed that reconstructed fire years were associated with abnormally warm/dry conditions, with below-average streamflow, and were strongly teleconnected to the Southern Annular Mode. The multiple fires that followed European colonization caused near total mortality of A. selaginoides and resulted in pronounced floristic, structural vegetation, and fuel load changes. Burned stands have very few regenerating A. selaginoides juveniles yet tree-establishment reconstruction of fire-killed adults exhibited persistent recruitment in the period prior to European colonization. Collectively, our findings indicate that this fire-sensitive Gondwanan conifer was able to persist with burning by Aboriginal Tasmanians, despite episodic widespread forest fires. By contrast, European burning led to the restriction of A. selaginoides to prime topographic fire refugia. Increasingly, frequent fires caused by regional dry and warming trends and increased ignitions by humans and lightning are breaching fire refugia; hence, the survival Tasmanian Gondwanan species demands sustained and targeted fire management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrés Holz
- Department of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA
| | - Sam W Wood
- School of Biological Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas., Australia
| | - Carly Ward
- School of Biological Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas., Australia
| | - Thomas T Veblen
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - David M J S Bowman
- School of Biological Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas., Australia
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27
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Predicting the influence of climate on grassland area burned in Xilingol, China with dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag models. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0229894. [PMID: 32243439 PMCID: PMC7122722 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2019] [Accepted: 02/18/2020] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
The influence of climate change on wildland fire has received considerable attention, but few studies have examined the potential effects of climate variability on grassland area burned within the extensive steppe land of Eurasia. We used a novel statistical approach borrowed from the social science literature—dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models—to explore the relationship between temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, sunlight, and carbon emissions on grassland area burned in Xilingol, a large grassland-dominated landscape of Inner Mongolia in northern China. We used an ARDL model to describe the influence of these variables on observed area burned between 2001 and 2018 and used dynamic simulations of the model to project the influence of climate on area burned over the next twenty years. Our analysis demonstrates that area burned was most sensitive to wind speed and temperature. A 1% increase in wind speed was associated with a 20.8% and 22.8% increase in observed and predicted area burned respectively, while a 1% increase in maximum temperature was associated with an 8.7% and 9.7% increase in observed and predicted future area burned. Dynamic simulations of ARDL models provide insights into the variability of area burned across Inner Mongolia grasslands in the context of anthropogenic climate change.
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28
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Nolan RH, Boer MM, Collins L, Resco de Dios V, Clarke H, Jenkins M, Kenny B, Bradstock RA. Causes and consequences of eastern Australia's 2019-20 season of mega-fires. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:1039-1041. [PMID: 31916352 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14987] [Citation(s) in RCA: 126] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2019] [Revised: 12/31/2019] [Accepted: 01/02/2020] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Rachael H Nolan
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW, Australia
- New South Wales Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Parramatta, NSW, Australia
| | - Matthias M Boer
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW, Australia
- New South Wales Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Parramatta, NSW, Australia
| | - Luke Collins
- Department of Ecology, Environment & Evolution, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Vic., Australia
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Heidelberg, Vic., Australia
| | - Víctor Resco de Dios
- School of Life Science and Engineering, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China
- AGROTECNIO Centre, Universitat de Lleida, Lleida, Spain
| | - Hamish Clarke
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW, Australia
- New South Wales Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Parramatta, NSW, Australia
- Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
| | - Meaghan Jenkins
- Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
| | - Belinda Kenny
- NSW Rural Fire Service, Sydney Olympic Park, NSW, Australia
| | - Ross A Bradstock
- New South Wales Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Parramatta, NSW, Australia
- Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
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Chapman TB, Schoennagel T, Veblen TT, Rodman KC. Still standing: Recent patterns of post-fire conifer refugia in ponderosa pine-dominated forests of the Colorado Front Range. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0226926. [PMID: 31940320 PMCID: PMC6961861 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0226926] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2019] [Accepted: 12/06/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Forested fire refugia (trees that survive fires) are important disturbance legacies that provide seed sources for post-fire regeneration. Conifer regeneration has been limited following some recent western fires, particularly in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. However, the extent, characteristics, and predictability of ponderosa pine fire refugia are largely unknown. Within 23 fires in ponderosa pine-dominated forests of the Colorado Front Range (1996-2013), we evaluated the spatial characteristics and predictability of refugia: first using Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) burn severity metrics, then using landscape variables (topography, weather, anthropogenic factors, and pre-fire forest cover). Using 1-m resolution aerial imagery, we created a binary variable of post-fire conifer presence ('Conifer Refugia') and absence ('Conifer Absence') within 30-m grid cells. We found that maximum patch size of Conifer Absence was positively correlated with fire size, and 38% of the burned area was ≥ 50m from a conifer seed source, revealing a management challenge as fire sizes increase with warming further limiting conifer recovery. In predicting Conifer Refugia with two MTBS-produced databases, thematic burn severity classes (TBSC) and continuous Relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (RdNBR) values, Conifer Absence was high in previously forested areas of Low and Moderate burn severity classes in TBSC. RdNBR more accurately identified post-fire conifer survivorship. In predicting Conifer Refugia with landscape variables, Conifer Refugia were less likely during burn days with high maximum temperatures: while Conifer Refugia were more likely on moister soils and closer to higher order streams, homes, and roads; and on less rugged, valley topography. Importantly, pre-fire forest canopy cover was not strongly associated with Conifer Refugia. This study further informs forest management by mapping post-fire patches lacking conifer seed sources, validating the use of RdNBR for fire refugia, and detecting abiotic and topographic variables that may promote conifer refugia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Teresa B. Chapman
- The Nature Conservancy, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Tania Schoennagel
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Thomas T. Veblen
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Kyle C. Rodman
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
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30
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Menezes‐Silva PE, Loram‐Lourenço L, Alves RDFB, Sousa LF, Almeida SEDS, Farnese FS. Different ways to die in a changing world: Consequences of climate change for tree species performance and survival through an ecophysiological perspective. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:11979-11999. [PMID: 31695903 PMCID: PMC6822037 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2018] [Revised: 08/22/2019] [Accepted: 08/28/2019] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Anthropogenic activities such as uncontrolled deforestation and increasing greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for triggering a series of environmental imbalances that affect the Earth's complex climate dynamics. As a consequence of these changes, several climate models forecast an intensification of extreme weather events over the upcoming decades, including heat waves and increasingly severe drought and flood episodes. The occurrence of such extreme weather will prompt profound changes in several plant communities, resulting in massive forest dieback events that can trigger a massive loss of biodiversity in several biomes worldwide. Despite the gravity of the situation, our knowledge regarding how extreme weather events can undermine the performance, survival, and distribution of forest species remains very fragmented. Therefore, the present review aimed to provide a broad and integrated perspective of the main biochemical, physiological, and morpho-anatomical disorders that may compromise the performance and survival of forest species exposed to climate change factors, particularly drought, flooding, and global warming. In addition, we also discuss the controversial effects of high CO2 concentrations in enhancing plant growth and reducing the deleterious effects of some extreme climatic events. We conclude with a discussion about the possible effects that the factors associated with the climate change might have on species distribution and forest composition.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Lucas Loram‐Lourenço
- Laboratory of Plant EcophysiologyInstituto Federal Goiano – Campus Rio VerdeGoiásBrazil
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