Precipitation-productivity relationships and the duration of precipitation anomalies: An underappreciated dimension of climate change

Impacts of rainfall and rainfall anomalies on the population dynamics of rodents in southeast Asian rice fields

BACKGROUND

The mechanisms that regulate multi-annual population dynamics of rodent pest species of cereal crops is often unknown. Better knowledge of such aspects can aid pest management and in turn improve food security and human health. The patterns and processes of the population dynamics of Rattus argentiventer, in rice fields of Indonesia, and Rattus tanezumi, in rice fields of the Philippines were assessed in this article.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis of trapping data over 20 years in Indonesia, and 16 years in the Philippines indicated that rodent populations in rice fields did not show a regular multi-annual pattern. Rattus argentiventer populations in Indonesia responded to less rainfall from the current year. Rattus tanezumi populations in the Philippines responded positively to both rainfall and rainfall anomaly with a 1-year time lag.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study of long-term population data indicates that certain combinations of rainfall parameters could be useful to predict years when there is higher rodent abundance in rice fields. The key rodent pest species in rice fields in Indonesia (R. argentiventer) and the Philippines (R. tanezumi) differ, and the populations of each species respond differently to rainfall anomalies. Other factors such as crop cover and water availability may also be important and should be considered in future work. © 2024 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Nitrogen addition does not alter symmetric responses of soil respiration to changing precipitation in a semi-arid grassland

Concurrent changing precipitation regimes and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition can have profound influences on soil carbon (C) cycling. However, how N enrichment regulates the responses of soil C fluxes to increasing variability of precipitation remains elusive. As part of a field precipitation gradient experiment with nine levels of precipitation amounts (-60 %, -45 %, -30 %, -15 %, ambient precipitation, +15 %, +30 %, +45 %, and +60 %) and two levels of N addition (0 and 10 g N m-2 yr-1) in a semi-arid temperate steppe on the Mongolian Plateau, this work was conducted to investigate the responses of soil respiration to decreased and increased precipitation (DP and IP), N addition, and their possible interactions. Averaged over the three years from 2019 to 2021, DP suppressed soil respiration by 16.1 %, whereas IP stimulated it by 27.4 %. Nitrogen addition decreased soil respiration by 7.1 % primarily via reducing microbial biomass C. Soil respiration showed symmetric responses to DP and IP within all the four precipitation variabilities (i.e., 15 %, 30 %, 45 %, and 60 %) under ambient N. Nevertheless, N addition did not alter the symmetric responses of soil respiration to changing precipitation due to the comparable sensitivities of microbial biomass and root growth to DP and IP under the N addition treatment. These findings indicate that intensified precipitation variability does not change but N addition could alleviate soil C releases. The unchanged symmetric responses of soil respiration to precipitation variability under N addition imply that N deposition may not change the response pattern of soil C releases to predicted increases in precipitation variability in grasslands, facilitating the robust projections of ecosystem C cycling under future global change scenarios.

Can permanent grassland soils with elevated organic carbon buffer negative effects of more persistent precipitation regimes on forage grass performance?

Agricultural practices enhancing soil organic carbon (SOC) show potential to buffer negative effects of climate change on forage grass performance. We tested this by subjecting five forage grass varieties differing in fodder quality and drought/flooding resistance to increased persistence in summer precipitation regimes (PR) across sandy and sandy-loam soils from either permanent (high SOC) or temporary grasslands (low SOC) in adjacent parcels. Over the course of two consecutive summers, monoculture mesocosms were subjected to rainy/dry weather alternation either every 3 days or every 30 days, whilst keeping total precipitation equal. Increased PR persistence induced species-specific drought damage and productivity declines. Soils from permanent grasslands with elevated SOC buffered plant quality, but buffering effects of SOC on drought damage, nutrient availability and yield differed between texture classes. In the more persistent PR, Festuca arundinacea FERMINA was the most productive species but had the lowest quality under both ample water supply and mild soil drought, whilst under the most intense soil droughts, Festulolium FESTILO maintained the highest yields. The hybrid Lolium × boucheanum kunth MELCOMBI had intermediate productivity and both Lolium perenne varieties showed the lowest yields under soil drought, but the highest forage quality (especially the tetraploid variety MELFORCE). Performance varied with plant maturity stage and across seasons/years and was driven by altered water and nutrient availability and related nitrogen nutrition among species during drought and upon rewetting. Moreover, whilst permanent grassland soils showed the most consistent positive effects on plant performance, their available water capacity also declined under increased PR persistence. We conclude that permanent grassland soils with historically elevated SOC likely buffer negative effects of increasing summer weather persistence on forage grass performance, but may also be more sensitive to degradation under climate change.

Transition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake

Although elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) has substantial indirect effects on vegetation carbon uptake via associated climate change, their dynamics remain unclear. Here we investigate how the impacts of eCO2-driven climate change on growing-season gross primary production have changed globally during 1982-2014, using satellite observations and Earth system models, and evaluate their evolution until the year 2100. We show that the initial positive effect of eCO2-induced climate change on vegetation carbon uptake has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century. Such emerging pattern appears prominent in high latitudes and occurs in combination with a decrease of direct CO2 physiological effect, ultimately resulting in a sharp reduction of the current growth benefits induced by climate warming and CO2 fertilization. Such weakening of the indirect CO2 effect can be partially attributed to the widespread land drying, and it is expected to be further exacerbated under global warming.

Impacts of climate change on winter wheat net primary production: the regulatory role of crop management

BACKGROUND

The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3HP) is the main agricultural area in China. Although climate change (CC) and crop management (CM) are considered factors affecting the winter wheat net primary production (NPP) in this region, their effects remain unclear. In the present study, we evaluated the relative contributions of CC and CM to winter wheat aboveground NPP (ANPP) in the 3HP and the relationships between climatic factors and ANPP using the first-order difference method from 2000 to 2020.

RESULTS

CM had a greater influence on the ANPP of winter wheat than did CC. However, the relative contribution of CM to ANPP gradually decreased in humid and dry sub-humid regions with the development of winter wheat. Furthermore, in areas characterized by low temperatures and limited precipitation, CC became the dominant factor contributing to ANPP, indicating that varieties resilient to drought and cold should be selected in these regions. Minimum and average temperatures were the dominant factors driving spatiotemporal variations in ANPP during the early stage of winter wheat growth, whereas maximum temperature constrained growth throughout the winter wheat growth cycle. When winter wheat entered the vigorous growth stage, precipitation and solar radiation replaced temperature as the driving factors influencing winter wheat growth.

CONCLUSION

The results of the present study provide guidance for optimizing winter wheat crop management in the 3HP. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Global predictions of topsoil organic carbon stocks under changing climate in the 21st century

The organic carbon (OC) stored in global topsoil (0-30 cm) will be the most active participant in the carbon cycle under future climate change. Due to differences in focus regions or research methods, the spatio-temporal changes of future global topsoil OC stocks and how they will be affected by climate change are not systematically understood, which needs to be further explored. In this study, we developed data-driven models to predict the spatio-temporal dynamics of global topsoil OC stocks by combining 32,579 soil profiles with environmental variables and comprehensively explored the impact of future climate change on topsoil OC. It was found that the topsoil OC stocks were 1249.29 Pg in the baseline period (1971-1990). By 2100, under the normal and high representative concentration paths, it is predicted that the global topsoil OC stocks will decrease by 113.67 ± 25.93 Pg and 193.71 ± 39.76 Pg, respectively. In the future, the largest global topsoil carbon loss will occur in boreal forest areas, which are expected to lose 17.03-27.90 % (66.01-108.13Pg) of their carbon stocks. The influence of climate on topsoil OC stocks is mainly manifested in temperature, which has a negative influence on the global topsoil OC stock, and the contribution rate of temperature to the effect on the global topsoil OC stock is about 26.96 %. Overall, our results provide a high spatio-temporal resolution assessment of global topsoil OC stocks and their relationship to environmental factors, and highlight the spatial heterogeneity, which has been generally ignored in many experimental frameworks and prediction models. These results will help governments to make appropriate management decisions to mitigate climate change.

Remotely sensed localised primary production anomalies predict the burden and community structure of infection in long-term rodent datasets

The increasing frequency and cost of zoonotic disease emergence due to global change have led to calls for the primary surveillance of wildlife. This should be facilitated by the ready availability of remotely sensed environmental data, given the importance of the environment in determining infectious disease dynamics. However, there has been little evaluation of the temporal predictiveness of remotely sensed environmental data for infection reservoirs in vertebrate hosts due to a deficit of corresponding high-quality long-term infection datasets. Here we employ two unique decade-spanning datasets for assemblages of infectious agents, including zoonotic agents, in rodents in stable habitats. Such stable habitats are important, as they provide the baseline sets of pathogens for the interactions within degrading habitats that have been identified as hotspots for zoonotic emergence. We focus on the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), a measure of vegetation greening that equates to primary productivity, reasoning that this would modulate infectious agent populations via trophic cascades determining host population density or immunocompetence. We found that EVI, in analyses with data standardised by site, inversely predicted more than one-third of the variation in an index of infectious agent total abundance. Moreover, in bipartite host occupancy networks, weighted network statistics (connectance and modularity) were linked to total abundance and were also predicted by EVI. Infectious agent abundance and, perhaps, community structure are likely to influence infection risk and, in turn, the probability of transboundary emergence. Thus, the present results, which were consistent in disparate forest and desert systems, provide proof-of-principle that within-site fluctuations in satellite-derived greenness indices can furnish useful forecasting that could focus primary surveillance. In relation to the well-documented global greening trend of recent decades, the present results predict declining infection burden in wild vertebrates in stable habitats; but if greening trends were to be reversed, this might magnify the already upwards trend in zoonotic emergence.

Forest productivity recovery or collapse? Model-data integration insights on drought-induced tipping points

More frequent and severe droughts are driving increased forest mortality around the globe. We urgently need to describe and predict how drought affects forest carbon cycling and identify thresholds of environmental stress that trigger ecosystem collapse. Quantifying the effects of drought at an ecosystem level is complex because dynamic climate-plant relationships can cause rapid and/or prolonged shifts in carbon balance. We employ the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) to investigate legacy effects of drought on forest carbon pools and fluxes. Our Bayesian model-data fusion approach uses tower observed meteorological forcing and carbon fluxes to determine the response and sensitivity of aboveground and belowground ecological processes associated with the 2012-2015 California drought. Our study area is a mid-montane mixed conifer forest in the Southern Sierras. CARDAMOM constrained with gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates covering 2011-2017 show a ~75% reduction in GPP, compared to negligible GPP change when constrained with 2011 only. Precipitation across 2012-2015 was 45% (474 mm) lower than the historical average and drove a cascading depletion in soil moisture and carbon pools (foliar, labile, roots, and litter). Adding 157 mm during an especially stressful year (2014, annual rainfall = 293 mm) led to a smaller depletion of water and carbon pools, steering the ecosystem away from a state of GPP tipping-point collapse to recovery. We present novel process-driven insights that demonstrate the sensitivity of GPP collapse to ecosystem foliar carbon and soil moisture states-showing that the full extent of GPP response takes several years to arise. Thus, long-term changes in soil moisture and carbon pools can provide a mechanistic link between drought and forest mortality. Our study provides an example for how key precipitation threshold ranges can influence forest productivity, making them useful for monitoring and predicting forest mortality events.

Functional thresholds alter the relationship of plant resistance and recovery to drought

The ecological consequences of future droughts are difficult to predict due to a limited understanding of the nonlinear responses of plants to increasing drought intensity, which can change abruptly when critical thresholds of drought intensity are crossed. Drought responses are composed of resistance and postdrought recovery. Although it is well established that higher drought intensity increases the impact and, thus, reduces plant resistance, less is known about how drought intensity affects recovery and how resistance and recovery are related. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that resistance, recovery, and their relationship change abruptly upon crossing critical thresholds of drought intensity. We exposed mesocosms of two monospecific stands of the common grassland species Dactylis glomerata and Plantago lanceolata to a large gradient of drought intensity and quantified the resistance and recovery of multiple measures of plant productivity, including gross-primary productivity, vegetative height, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and aboveground biomass production. Drought intensity had nonlinear and contrasting effects on plant productivity during drought and recovery, which differed between the two species. Increasing drought intensity decreased the resistance of plant productivity and caused rapid compensatory growth during postdrought recovery, the degree of which was highly dependent on drought intensity. Across multiple response parameters two thresholds of drought intensity emerged, upon which we observed abrupt changes in plant resistance and recovery, as well as their relationship. We conclude that across gradients of drought intensity resistance and recovery are tightly coupled and that both the magnitude and the direction of drought effects on resistance and recovery can change abruptly upon specific thresholds of stress intensity. These findings highlight the urgent need to account for nonlinear responses of resistance and recovery to drought intensity as critical drivers of productivity in a changing climate.

Soil moisture drives the spatiotemporal patterns of asymmetry in vegetation productivity responses across China

Increasingly drastic global change is expected to cause hydroclimatic changes, which will influence vegetation productivity and pose a threat to the terrestrial carbon sink. Asymmetry represents an imbalance between vegetation growth and loss of growth during dry and wet periods, respectively. However, the mechanisms of asymmetric plant responses to hydrological changes remain poorly understood. Here, we examined the spatiotemporal patterns of asymmetric responses of vegetation productivity across terrestrial ecosystems in China. We analyzed several observational and satellite-based datasets of plant productivity and several reanalyzed datasets of hydroclimatic variables from 2001 to 2020, and used a random forest model to assess the importance of hydroclimatic variables for these responses. Our results showed that the productivity of >50 % of China's vegetated areas showed a more positive asymmetry (2.3 ± 9.4 %) over the study period, which were distributed broadly in northwest China (mainly grasslands and sparse vegetation ecosystems). Negative asymmetries were most common in forest ecosystems in northeast China. We demonstrated that one-third of vegetated areas tended to exhibit significant changes in asymmetry during 2001-2020. The trend towards stronger positive asymmetry (0.95 % yr^-1) was higher than that towards stronger negative asymmetry (-0.55 % yr^-1), which is beneficial for the carbon sink. We further showed that in China, soil moisture was a more important driver of spatiotemporal changes in asymmetric productivity than precipitation. We identified thresholds of surface soil moisture (20-30 %, volume water content) and root-zone soil moisture (200-350 mm, equivalent water height) that were associated with changes in asymmetry. Our findings highlight the necessity of considering the dynamic responses of vegetation to hydrological factors in order to fully understand the physiological growth processes of plants and avoid the possible loss of productivity due to future climate change.

Legacies of precipitation influence primary production in Panicum virgatum

Precipitation is a key driver of primary production worldwide, but primary production does not always track year-to-year variation in precipitation linearly. Instead, plant responses to changes in precipitation may exhibit time lags, or legacies of past precipitation. Legacies can be driven by multiple mechanisms, including persistent changes in plant physiological and morphological traits and changes to the physical environment, such as plant access to soil water. We used three precipitation manipulation experiments in central Texas, USA to evaluate the magnitude, duration, and potential mechanisms driving precipitation legacies on aboveground primary production of the perennial C₄ grass, Panicum virgatum. Specifically, we performed a rainout shelter study, where eight genotypes grew under different precipitation regimes; a transplant study, where plants that had previously grown in a rainout shelter under different precipitation regimes were moved to a common environment; and a mesocosm study, where the effect of swapping precipitation regime was examined with a single genotype. Across these experiments, plants previously grown under wet conditions generally performed better than expected when exposed to drought. Panicum virgatum exhibited stronger productivity legacies of past wet years on current-year responses to drought than of past dry years on current-year responses to wet conditions. Additionally, previous year tiller counts, a proxy for meristem availability, were important in determining legacy effects on aboveground production. As climate changes and precipitation extremes-both dry and wet-become more common, these results suggest that populations of P. virgatum may become less resilient.

Does previous exposure to extreme precipitation regimes result in acclimated grassland communities?

Climate change will likely increase weather persistence in the mid-latitudes, resulting in precipitation regimes (PR) with longer dry and wet periods compared to historic averages. This could affect terrestrial ecosystems substantially through the increased occurrence of repeated, prolonged drought and water logging conditions. Climate history is an important determinant of ecosystem responses to consecutive environmental extremes, through direct damage, community restructuring as well as morphological and physiological acclimation in species or individuals. However, it is unclear how community restructuring and individual metabolic acclimation effects interact to determine ecosystem responses to subsequent climate extremes. Here, we investigated, if and how, differences in exposure to extreme or historically normal PR induced long-lasting (i.e. legacy) effects at the level of community (e.g., species composition), plant (e.g., biomass), and molecular composition (e.g., sugars, lipids, stress markers). Experimental grassland communities were exposed to long (extreme) or short (historically normal) dry/wet cycles in year 1 (Y1), followed by exposure to an identical PR or the opposite PR in year 2 (Y2). Results indicate that exposure to extreme PR in Y1, reduced diversity but induced apparent acclimation effects in all climate scenarios, stimulating biomass (higher productivity and structural sugar content) in Y2. In contrast, plants pre-exposed to normal PR, showed more activated stress responses (higher proline and antioxidants) under extreme PR in Y2. Overall, Y1 acclimation effects were strongest in the dominant grasses, indicating comparatively high phenotypical plasticity. However, Y2 drought intensity also correlated with grass productivity and structural sugar findings, suggesting that responses to short-term soil water deficits contributed to the observed patterns. Interactions between different legacy effects are discussed. We conclude that more extreme PR will likely alter diversity in the short-to midterm and select for acclimated grassland communities with increased productivity and attenuated molecular stress responses under future climate regimes.

Drought legacies and ecosystem responses to subsequent drought

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts. These events, which can cause significant perturbations of terrestrial ecosystems and potentially long-term impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning after the drought has subsided are often called 'drought legacies'. While the immediate effects of drought on ecosystems have been comparatively well characterized, our broader understanding of drought legacies is just emerging. Drought legacies can relate to all aspects of ecosystem structure and functioning, involving changes at the species and the community scale as well as alterations of soil properties. This has consequences for ecosystem responses to subsequent drought. Here, we synthesize current knowledge on drought legacies and the underlying mechanisms. We highlight the relevance of legacy duration to different ecosystem processes using examples of carbon cycling and community composition. We present hypotheses characterizing how intrinsic (i.e. biotic and abiotic properties and processes) and extrinsic (i.e. drought timing, severity, and frequency) factors could alter resilience trajectories under scenarios of recurrent drought events. We propose ways for improving our understanding of drought legacies and their implications for subsequent drought events, needed to assess the longer-term consequences of droughts on ecosystem structure and functioning.

Grassland soil carbon sequestration: Current understanding, challenges, and solutions

Grasslands store approximately one third of the global terrestrial carbon stocks and can act as an important soil carbon sink. Recent studies show that plant diversity increases soil organic carbon (SOC) storage by elevating carbon inputs to belowground biomass and promoting microbial necromass contribution to SOC storage. Climate change affects grassland SOC storage by modifying the processes of plant carbon inputs and microbial catabolism and anabolism. Improved grazing management and biodiversity restoration can provide low-cost and/or high-carbon-gain options for natural climate solutions in global grasslands. The achievable SOC sequestration potential in global grasslands is 2.3 to 7.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalents per year (CO₂e year^-1) for biodiversity restoration, 148 to 699 megatons of CO₂e year^-1 for improved grazing management, and 147 megatons of CO₂e year^-1 for sown legumes in pasturelands.

Effect of Nitrogen Application on the Sensitivity of Desert Shrub Community Productivity to Precipitation in Central Asia

Precipitation variability and nitrogen (N) deposition caused by anthropogenic activities could profoundly impact ecosystem productivity and carbon cycling. In desert ecosystems, vegetation is sensitive to changes in precipitation and N deposition. However, the impacts of large changes in precipitation, especially with a concurrent increase in N content, on plant community remain unclear. In this study, we carried out experiments to monitor the impacts of five precipitation levels and two N levels on the plant community function and composition from the Junggar desert in Central Asia during the period 2018-2019. Our results showed that: (1) Aboveground net primary production (ANPP) significantly increased with increasing precipitation, it followed a positive linear model under normal precipitation range, and nonlinear mode under extreme precipitation events; (2) N application led to an increase in ANPP, but did not significantly improve the sensitivity of ANPP to precipitation change; (3) Changes in N content and precipitation, and their impacts on ANPP were mainly driven by plant density. These results provide a theoretical basis for predict the future dynamics of terrestrial vegetation more accurately under climate change and increasing nitrogen deposition.

Biodiversity showed positive effects on resistance but mixed effects on resilience to climatic extremes in a long-term grassland experiment

Understanding the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecosystem functioning and stability under increasing frequency and magnitude of climatic extremes has fascinated ecologists for decades. Although growing evidence suggests that biodiversity affects ecosystem productivity and buffers ecosystem against climatic extremes, it remains unclear whether the stability of an ecosystem is caused by its resistance against disturbances or resilience towards perturbations or both. In attempting to explore how species richness affects resistance and resilience of above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) against climatic extremes, we analyzed the grassland ANPP of the long-running (1997-2020) Bayreuth Biodiversity experiment in Germany. We used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index to identify climatic conditions based on 5- and 7-class classifications of climatic conditions. Mixed-effects models and post-hoc test show that ANPP varied significantly among different intensities (e.g. moderate or extreme) and directions (e.g. dry or wet) of climatic conditions, with the highest ANPP in extreme wet and the lowest in extreme dry conditions. Resistance and resilience of ANPP to climatic extremes in different intensities were examined by linear-mixed effects models and we found that species richness increased ecosystem resistance against all dry and wet climatic extremes, but decreased ecosystem resilience towards all dry climatic extremes. Species richness had no effects on ecosystem resilience towards wet climatic extremes. When the five level of species richness treatment (i.e., 1, 2, 4, 8, and 16 species) were considered, the relationships between species richness and resistance and resilience of ANPP under extreme wet and dry conditions remained similar. Our study emphasizes that plant communities with greater species richness need to be maintained to stabilize ecosystem productivity and increase resistance against different climatic extremes.

Study on the Structural Properties of an Ecospatial Network in Inner Mongolia and Its Relationship with NPP

In the context of strengthening the construction of ecological civilization and accelerating the “carbon peak” in China, the regional ecological pattern and its connection with carbon sink capacity have become an urgent topic. Given that Inner Mongolia is a large carbon emission province and the conflict between economic development and ecological protection is particularly prominent, we took Inner Mongolia as an example to extract its ecospatial network, then calculated the integrity index, topological indices, and recovery robustness of the network and evaluated integrity and other properties of the ecospatial network structure by combining them with the ecological background. In addition, we analyzed the relationship between the topological indices and net primary productivity (NPP). The results showed that the network was scale-free and heterogeneous, with low integrity, connectivity and stability, which were the focus of future optimization. The nodes with important functions were mainly distributed in the farm-forest ecotone, grasslands, and the agro-pastoral ecotone; under the simulation attack, the node recovery robustness was stronger than the corridor recovery robustness, and NPP was negatively and significantly correlated with the woodland nodes and grassland nodes. In terms of ecological restoration, the unused land in the west is a key area, and it is necessary to add new ecological nodes and corridors. In terms of enhancing carbon sequestration capacity, under the premise of ensuring network connectivity, the appropriate and rational merging of ecological nodes and corridors within woodlands and grasslands is a particularly effective means. This study provides a reference for evaluating and optimizing the ecological pattern of areas with prominent ecological problems and improving the carbon sink of ecosystems in terms of their ecospatial network structure.

Compound hydroclimatic extremes in a semi-arid grassland: Drought, deluge, and the carbon cycle

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events including droughts and large precipitation events or "deluges." While many studies have focused on the ecological impacts of individual events (e.g., a heat wave), there is growing recognition that when extreme events co-occur as compound extremes, (e.g., a heatwave during a drought), the additive effects on ecosystems are often greater than either extreme alone. In this study, we assessed a unique type of extreme-a contrasting compound extreme-where the extremes may have offsetting, rather than additive ecological effects, by examining how a deluge during a drought impacts productivity and carbon cycling in a semi-arid grassland. The experiment consisted of four treatments: a control (average precipitation), an extreme drought (<5th percentile), an extreme drought interrupted by a single deluge (>95th percentile), or an extreme drought interrupted by the equivalent amount of precipitation added in several smaller events. We highlight three key results. First, extreme drought resulted in early senescence, reduced carbon uptake, and a decline in net primary productivity relative to the control treatment. Second, the deluge imposed during extreme drought stimulated carbon fluxes and plant growth well above the levels of both the control and the drought treatment with several additional smaller rainfall events, emphasizing the importance of precipitation amount, event size, and timing. Third, while the deluge's positive effects on carbon fluxes and plant growth persisted for 1 month, the deluge did not completely offset the negative effects of extreme drought on end-of-season productivity. Thus, in the case of these contrasting hydroclimatic extremes, a deluge during a drought can stimulate temporally dynamic ecosystem processes (e.g., net ecosystem exchange) while only partially compensating for reductions in ecosystem functions over longer time scales (e.g., aboveground net primary productivity).

Global evidence on the asymmetric response of gross primary productivity to interannual precipitation changes

Understanding gross primary productivity (GPP) response to precipitation (PPT) changes is essential for predicting land carbon uptake under increasing PPT variability and extremes. Previous studies found that ecosystem GPP may have an asymmetric response to PPT changes, leading to the inconsistency of GPP gains in wet years compared to GPP declines in dry years. However, it is unclear how the asymmetric responses vary among vegetation types and under different PPT variabilities. This study evaluated the global patterns of asymmetries of GPP response to different PPT changes using two state-of-science global GPP datasets. The result shows that under mild PPT changes (|ΔPPT| ≤ 25%), grasslands, savannas, shrublands, and tundra show positive asymmetric responses (i.e., larger GPP gains in wet years than GPP losses in dry years), while other vegetation types show negative asymmetric responses (i.e., larger GPP losses in dry years than GPP gains in wet years). Conversely, all vegetation types show negative GPP asymmetric responses to moderate (25% < |ΔPPT| ≤ 50%) and extreme (|ΔPPT| > 50%) PPT changes. Thus, we propose a new non-linear asymmetric GPP-PPT model that incorporates three modes with regards to vegetation types. Meanwhile, we found that the spatial patterns of asymmetry were mainly driven by PPT amount and variability. Stronger and negative asymmetries were found in areas with smaller PPT amount and variability, while positive asymmetries were found in areas with higher PPT variability. These findings promote our understanding of carbon dynamics under increased PPT variability and extremes and provide new insights for land models to better predict future carbon uptake and its feedback to climate change.

Winter nitrogen enrichment does not alter the sensitivity of plant communities to precipitation in a semiarid grassland

Nitrogen (N) deposition often promotes aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), but has adverse effects on terrestrial ecosystem biodiversity. It is unclear, however, whether biomass production and biodiversity are equally altered by seasonal N enrichment, as there is a temporal pattern to atmospheric N deposition. By adding N in autumn, winter, or growing season from October 2014 to May 2019 in a temperate grassland in China, we found that N addition promoted peak plant community ANPP, but tended to decrease plant richness. Regardless of seasonal N additions, precipitation was positively correlated with plant community ANPP, confirming that precipitation is the primary limiting factor in this semiarid grassland. Unexpectedly, N addition in autumn or growing season, but not in winter, increased the sensitivity of plant communities to precipitation (i.e., the slope of the positive relationship between community ANPP and precipitation), indicating that precipitation determines the influence of seasonal N enrichment on plant community biomass production. These findings suggest that previous studies in which N was added in a single season, e.g., the growing season, have likely overestimated the effects of N deposition on ecosystem primary productivity, especially during wet years. This study illustrates that multi-season N addition in agreement with predicted seasonal patterns of N deposition needs to be evaluated to precisely assess ecosystem responses.

Divergent responses of primary production to increasing precipitation variability in global drylands

Interannual variability in precipitation has increased globally as climate warming intensifies. The increased variability impacts both terrestrial plant production and carbon (C) sequestration. However, mechanisms driving these changes are largely unknown. Here, we examined mechanisms underlying the response of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) to interannual precipitation variability in global drylands with mean annual precipitation (MAP) <500 mm year^-1 , using a combined approach of data synthesis and process-based modeling. We found a hump-shaped response of ANPP to precipitation variability along the MAP gradient. The response was positive when MAP < ~300 mm year^-1 and negative when MAP was higher than this threshold, with a positive peak at 140 mm year^-1 . Transpiration and subsoil water content mirrored the response of ANPP to precipitation variability; evaporation responded negatively and water loss through runoff and drainage responded positively to precipitation variability. Mean annual temperature, soil type, and plant physiological traits all altered the magnitude but not the pattern of the response of ANPP to precipitation variability along the MAP gradient. By extrapolating to global drylands (<500 mm year^-1  MAP), we estimated that ANPP would increase by 15.2 ± 6.0 Tg C year^-1 in arid and hyper-arid lands and decrease by 2.1 ± 0.5 Tg C year^-1 in dry sub-humid lands under future changes in interannual precipitation variability. Thus, increases in precipitation variability will enhance primary production in many drylands in the future.

Biotic vs abiotic controls on temporal sensitivity of primary production to precipitation across North American drylands

Dryland net primary productivity (NPP) is sensitive to temporal variation in precipitation (PPT), but the magnitude of this 'temporal sensitivity' varies spatially. Hypotheses for spatial variation in temporal sensitivity have often emphasized abiotic factors, such as moisture limitation, while overlooking biotic factors, such as vegetation structure. We tested these hypotheses using spatiotemporal models fit to remote-sensing data sets to assess how vegetation structure and climate influence temporal sensitivity across five dryland ecoregions of the western USA. Temporal sensitivity was higher in locations and ecoregions dominated by herbaceous vegetation. By contrast, much less spatial variation in temporal sensitivity was explained by mean annual PPT. In fact, ecoregion-specific models showed inconsistent associations of sensitivity and PPT; whereas sensitivity decreased with increasing mean annual PPT in most ecoregions, it increased with mean annual PPT in the most arid ecoregion, the hot deserts. The strong, positive influence of herbaceous vegetation on temporal sensitivity indicates that herbaceous-dominated drylands will be particularly sensitive to future increases in precipitation variability and that dramatic changes in cover type caused by invasions or shrub encroachment will lead to changes in dryland NPP dynamics, perhaps independent of changes in precipitation.