Species on the move around the Australian coastline: A continental-scale review of climate-driven species redistribution in marine systems

Water temperature affects somatic growth, body condition and oxygen and carbon otolith isotopes of stout whiting (Sillago robusta)

Ocean warming will continue to affect the growth, body condition and geographic distributions of marine fishes and understanding these effects is an urgent challenge for fisheries research and management. Determining how temperature is recorded in fish otolith carbonate, provides an additional chronological tool to investigate thermal histories, preferences and patterns of movement throughout an individual's life history. The influence of three water temperature treatments (22°C, 25°C, and 28°C) on hatchery-reared juvenile stout whiting, Sillago robusta, was tested using a controlled outdoor mesocosm system. Fish were measured for change in length and weight, and body condition was determined using bioelectrical impedance analysis. Sagittal otoliths were analysed for stable oxygen (δ18Ootolith) and carbon (δ13Cotolith) isotopes via isotope ratio mass spectrometry. Whiting kept at 22°C were significantly smaller and had diminished body condition compared to fish in 25°C and 28°C, which did not significantly differ from each other. The δ18O otolith values of stout whiting demonstrated a negative temperature-dependent fractionation relationship which was similar in slope but had a different intercept to the relationships reported for inorganic aragonite and other marine fish species. The δ13C otolith values also showed a negative relationship with water temperature, and the calculated proportion of metabolic carbon M in otoliths differed between fish reared in the coolest (22°C) and warmest (28°C) temperature treatments. Overall, the results suggest that stout whiting may have reached an upper growth threshold between 25°C and 28°C, and that growth and body condition may be optimised during warmer seasons and toward the northerly regions of their distribution. Otolith oxygen thermometry shows promise as a natural tracer of thermal life history, and species-specific fractionation equations should be utilised when possible to prevent errors in temperature reconstructions of wild-caught fish.

Functional traits of ecosystem engineers as predictors of associated fauna

The ongoing combination of global warming and increased anthropogenic pressure is causing latitudinal shifts in marine species, potentially impacting community composition, local richness, and marine trophic webs. This study investigates the factors influencing the distribution and diversity of intertidal seaweed and associated peracarid communities, including their functional traits, and explores various facets of beta diversity (taxonomic and functional). We hypothesize that: 1) abiotic factors such as temperature and anthropogenic pressure significantly influence seaweed distribution and diversity shifts, and 2) changes in seaweed functional diversity have an impact on the diversity and functioning of its associated peracarid communities. The sampling was conducted along a wide latitudinal gradient in the NE Atlantic (27°N - 65°N), encompassing three distinct ecoregions: Northern European coasts, the Iberian Peninsula, and Macaronesia. The identified seaweed and peracarid species were classified functionally, and taxonomic and functional diversity were analysed on a large geographic scale. The northern region exhibited large brown canopy seaweeds and epibiotic isopods, while Macaronesia featured small red, highly branched, and calcareous crust seaweeds with burrower and tube-building tanaids. The Iberian Peninsula acted as a transitional zone, showcasing a mix of green, red, and brown seaweeds, along with Amphipoda peracarids found across all ecoregions. Our findings underscore the impact of geographic distance on total beta diversity, revealing distinct seaweed and peracarid communities across spatial gradients. Environmental variables, particularly pH and maximum sea surface temperature, emerged as significant factors influencing beta diversity patterns of seaweeds, indicating the potential impact of acidification and heat waves on community composition. In addition, seaweed functional traits were shown to be significant in shaping the diversity and abundance of associated peracarid assemblages, impacting both taxonomic and functional beta diversity. These findings provide crucial insights into the factors influencing the biogeography and biodiversity dynamics of intertidal seaweeds and associated peracarids, offering essential implications for conservation and management strategies amid ongoing environmental changes.

A quantitative assessment of continuous versus structured methods for the detection of marine mammals and seabirds via opportunistic shipboard surveys

Marine monitoring efforts are increasingly supported by opportunistic shipboard surveys. However, opportunistic survey methods often require adaptation to suit the vessel and the operations being conducted onboard. Whilst best-practice techniques for surveying marine wildlife on vessels of opportunity are yet to be established, testing and development of alternative methods can provide means for capturing ecological information in otherwise under-surveyed areas. Explicitly, survey methods can be improved while baseline ecological data for new regions are gathered simultaneously. Herein, we tested different survey approaches on a vessel of opportunity in a remote offshore area where little is known about the community composition of top-order marine vertebrate predators: western and south-western Tasmania, Australia. We found that continuous surveys provide greater species counts than structured "snapshot" surveys over the course of a voyage, but that structured surveys can be more practical when managing factors such as observer fatigue. Moreover, we provide a baseline dataset on the marine vertebrate community encountered in western and south-western Tasmania. This information will be critically important for industry and conservation management objectives, and is key to our understanding of the offshore ecosystem around Tasmania.

Twenty-five emerging questions when detecting, understanding, and predicting future fish distributions in a changing climate

The 2023 Annual Symposium of the Fisheries Society of the British Isles hosted opportunities for researchers, scientists, and policy makers to reflect on the state of art of predicting fish distributions and consider the implications to the marine and aquatic environments of a changing climate. The outcome of one special interest group at the Symposium was a collection of questions, organized under five themes, which begin to capture the state of the field and identify priorities for research and management over the coming years. The five themes were Physiology, Mechanisms, Detect and Measure, Manage, and Wider Ecosystems. The questions, 25 of them, addressed concepts which remain poorly understood, are data deficient, and/or are likely to be impacted in measurable or profound ways by climate change. Moving from the first to the last theme, the questions expanded in the scope of their considerations, from specific processes within the individual to ecosystem-wide impacts, but no one question is bigger than any other: each is important in detecting, understanding, and predicting fish distributions, and each will be impacted by an aspect of climate change. In this way, our questions, particularly those concerning unknown mechanisms and data deficiencies, aimed to offer a guide to other researchers, managers, and policy makers in the prioritization of future work as a changing climate is expected to have complex and disperse impacts on fish populations and distributions that will require a coordinated effort to address.

Marine fishes experiencing high-velocity range shifts may not be climate change winners

Climate change is driving the global redistribution of species. A common assumption is that rapid range shifts occur in tandem with overall stable or positive abundance trends throughout the range and thus these species may be considered as climate change 'winners'. However, although establishing the link between range shift velocities and population trends is crucial for predicting climate change impacts it has not been empirically tested. Using 2,572 estimates of changes in marine fish abundance spread across the world's oceans, we show that poleward range shifts are not necessarily associated with positive population trends. Species experiencing high-velocity range shifts seem to experience local population declines irrespective of the position throughout the species range. High range shift velocities of 17 km yr-1 are associated with a 50% decrease in population sizes over a period of 10 yr, which is dramatic compared to the overall stable population trends in non-shifting species. This pattern, however, mostly occurs in populations located in the poleward, colder, portion of the species range. The lack of a positive association between poleward range shift velocities and population trends at the coldest portion of the range contrasts with the view that rapid range shifts safeguard against local population declines. Instead, our work suggests that marine fishes experiencing rapid range shifts could be more vulnerable to climatic change and therefore should be carefully assessed for conservation status.

From little things big things grow: enhancement of an acoustic telemetry network to monitor broad-scale movements of marine species along Australia's east coast

BACKGROUND

Acoustic telemetry has become a fundamental tool to monitor the movement of aquatic species. Advances in technology, in particular the development of batteries with lives of > 10 years, have increased our ability to track the long-term movement patterns of many species. However, logistics and financial constraints often dictate the locations and deployment duration of acoustic receivers. Consequently, there is often a compromise between optimal array design and affordability. Such constraints can hinder the ability to track marine animals over large spatial and temporal scales. Continental-scale receiver networks have increased the ability to study large-scale movements, but significant gaps in coverage often remain.

METHODS

Since 2007, the Integrated Marine Observing System's Animal Tracking Facility (IMOS ATF) has maintained permanent receiver installations on the eastern Australian seaboard. In this study, we present the recent enhancement of the IMOS ATF acoustic tracking infrastructure in Queensland to collect data on large-scale movements of marine species in the northeast extent of the national array. Securing a relatively small initial investment for expanding receiver deployment and tagging activities in Queensland served as a catalyst, bringing together a diverse group of stakeholders (research institutes, universities, government departments, port corporations, industries, Indigenous ranger groups and tourism operators) to create an extensive collaborative network that could sustain the extended receiver coverage into the future. To fill gaps between existing installations and maximise the monitoring footprint, the new initiative has an atypical design, deploying many single receivers spread across 2,100 km of Queensland waters.

RESULTS

The approach revealed previously unknown broad-scale movements for some species and highlights that clusters of receivers are not always required to enhance data collection. However, array designs using predominantly single receiver deployments are more vulnerable to data gaps when receivers are lost or fail, and therefore "redundancy" is a critical consideration when designing this type of array.

CONCLUSION

Initial results suggest that our array enhancement, if sustained over many years, will uncover a range of previously unknown movements that will assist in addressing ecological, fisheries, and conservation questions for multiple species.

Whole genome sequencing reveals stepping-stone dispersal buffered against founder effects in a range expanding seabird

Many species are shifting their ranges in response to climate-driven environmental changes, particularly in high-latitude regions. However, the patterns of dispersal and colonization during range shifting events are not always clear. Understanding how populations are connected through space and time can reveal how species navigate a changing environment. Here, we present a fine-scale population genomics study of gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua), a presumed site-faithful colonial nesting species that has increased in population size and expanded its range south along the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Using whole genome sequencing, we analysed 129 gentoo penguin individuals across 12 colonies located at or near the southern range edge. Through a detailed examination of fine-scale population structure, admixture, and population divergence, we inferred that gentoo penguins historically dispersed rapidly in a stepping-stone pattern from the South Shetland Islands leading to the colonization of Anvers Island, and then the adjacent mainland Western Antarctica Peninsula. Recent southward expansion along the Western Antarctic Peninsula also followed a stepping-stone dispersal pattern coupled with limited post-divergence gene flow from colonies on Anvers Island. Genetic diversity appeared to be maintained across colonies during the historical dispersal process, and range-edge populations are still growing. This suggests large numbers of migrants may provide a buffer against founder effects at the beginning of colonization events to maintain genetic diversity similar to that of the source populations before migration ceases post-divergence. These results coupled with a continued increase in effective population size since approximately 500-800 years ago distinguish gentoo penguins as a robust species that is highly adaptable and resilient to changing climate.

An integrated coastal ecosystem monitoring strategy: Pilot case in Naf-Saint Martin Peninsula, Bangladesh

Rapid population growth creating an excessive pressure on the marine environment and thus monitoring of marine ecosystem is essential. However, due to high technical and financial involvement, monitoring of coastal ecosystem is always challenging in developing countries. This study aims to develop an integrated coastal ecosystem monitoring system that combines scientific sampling, numerical model simulation and citizen science observations to monitor the coastal ecosystem of Bangladesh. This concept of integrated monitoring approach was piloted from January 2022 to April 2023 at the South East coastal zone of Bangladesh. Scientific sampling and numerical model simulations were performed for temperature and salinity data collection. Citizen science approach was employed to collect data on environmental conditions, fisheries, plankton, other marine resources, and plastic pollution. Numerical model simulations and citizen scientists observations of temperature and salinity showed good agreement with the scientifically collected data. In addition, citizen scientists observations on fisheries, plankton, other marine resources and plastic pollution were also in line with the existing database and previous studies. The proposed integrated monitoring approach presents a viable technique, creating a new avenue for coastal and marine ecosystem monitoring where infrastructural facilities are limited.

A marine heatwave drives significant shifts in pelagic microbiology

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) cause disruption to marine ecosystems, deleteriously impacting macroflora and fauna. However, effects on microorganisms are relatively unknown despite ocean temperature being a major determinant of assemblage structure. Using data from thousands of Southern Hemisphere samples, we reveal that during an "unprecedented" 2015/16 Tasman Sea MHW, temperatures approached or surpassed the upper thermal boundary of many endemic taxa. Temperate microbial assemblages underwent a profound transition to niche states aligned with sites over 1000 km equatorward, adapting to higher temperatures and lower nutrient conditions bought on by the MHW. MHW conditions also modulate seasonal patterns of microbial diversity and support novel assemblage compositions. The most significant affects of MHWs on microbial assemblages occurred during warmer months, when temperatures exceeded the upper climatological bounds. Trends in microbial response across several MHWs in different locations suggest these are emergent properties of temperate ocean warming, which may facilitate monitoring, prediction and adaptation efforts.

Climate-driven invasion and incipient warnings of kelp ecosystem collapse

Climate change is progressively redistributing species towards the Earth's poles, indicating widespread potential for ecosystem collapse. Detecting early-warning-signals and enacting adaptation measures is therefore a key imperative for humanity. However, detecting early-warning signals has remained elusive and has focused on exceptionally high-frequency and/ or long-term time-series, which are generally unattainable for most ecosystems that are under-sampled and already impacted by warming. Here, we show that a catastrophic phase-shift in kelp ecosystems, caused by range-extension of an overgrazing sea urchin, also propagates poleward. Critically, we show that incipient spatial-pattern-formations of kelp overgrazing are detectable well-in-advance of collapse along temperate reefs in the ocean warming hotspot of south-eastern Australia. Demonstrating poleward progression of collapse over 15 years, these early-warning 'incipient barrens' are now widespread along 500 km of coast with projections indicating that half of all kelp beds within this range-extension region will collapse by ~2030. Overgrazing was positively associated with deep boulder-reefs, yet negatively associated with predatory lobsters and subordinate abalone competitors, which have both been intensively fished. Climate-driven collapse of ecosystems is occurring; however, by looking equatorward, space-for-time substitutions can enable practical detection of early-warning spatial-pattern-formations, allowing local climate adaptation measures to be enacted in advance.

Individual consistency in the localised foraging behaviour of shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta)

Quantifying the intra- and interindividual variation that exists within a population can provide meaningful insights into a population's vulnerability and response to rapid environmental change. We characterise the foraging behaviour of 308 trips taken by 96 shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta) from Albatross Island across seven consecutive years. At a population level, incubating shy albatross exploited a consistent area within ca. 500 km radius of their breeding colony. During half of the trips, individuals utilised the closest shelf break to the west of the colony, where upwelling events have been reported. The other half of the trips were exclusively within the neritic zone, utilising a variety of locations within the Bass Strait. Furthermore, we found evidence of individual consistency to geographic locations, with subsequent trips by an individual more similar than random trips from all individuals in our data, both within and between years (G-test, p < .05). Between-individual variation in foraging behaviour was not meaningfully explained by age (linear regression, p > .05) or sex (t-test, p > .05) for any metric, suggesting that other intrinsic individual factors are accounting for between-individual variation in foraging trips. A localised foraging distribution is unusual for albatross, which, combined with high variation in space use between individuals demonstrated here, suggests that this species is accessing adequate resources near the colony. Overall, these findings suggest that incubating shy albatross from Albatross Island exhibit tendencies of a generalist population comprised of uniquely specialised individuals. These results suggest that this species is operating below its biological capacity in this fast-warming area and provide a baseline from which to assess future change.

Intraspecific variation in muscle growth of two distinct populations of Port Jackson sharks under projected end-of-century temperatures

Although pervasive, the effects of climate change vary regionally, possibly resulting in differential behavioral, physiological, and/or phenotypic responses among populations within broadly distributed species. Juvenile Port Jackson sharks (Heterodontus portusjacksoni) from eastern and southern Australia were reared at their current (17.6 °C Adelaide, South Australia [SA]; 20.6 °C Jervis Bay, New South Wales [NSW]) or projected end-of-century (EOC) temperatures (20.6 °C Adelaide, SA; 23.6 °C Jervis Bay, NSW) and assessed for morphological features of skeletal muscle tissue. Nearly all skeletal muscle properties including cellularity, fiber size, myonuclear domain, and satellite cell density did not differ between locations and thermal regimes. However, capillary density was significantly influenced by thermal treatment, where Adelaide sharks raised at current temperatures had a lower capillarity than Jervis Bay sharks raised at ambient or projected EOC temperatures. This may indicate higher metabolic costs at elevated temperatures. However, our results suggest that regardless of the population, juvenile Port Jackson sharks may have limited acclimatory potential to alter muscle metabolic features under a temperature increase, which may make this species vulnerable to climate change.

Impacts of seasonal temperatures, ocean warming and marine heatwaves on the nutritional quality of eastern school prawns (Metapenaeus macleayi)

Ocean warming and marine heatwaves significantly alter environmental conditions in marine and estuarine environments. Despite their potential global importance for nutrient security and human health, it is not well understood how thermal impacts could alter the nutritional quality of harvested marine resources. We tested whether short-term experimental exposure to seasonal temperatures, projected ocean-warming temperatures, and marine heatwaves affected the nutritional quality of the eastern school prawn (Metapenaeus macleayi). In addition, we tested whether nutritional quality was affected by the duration of exposure to warm temperatures. We show the nutritional quality of M. macleayi is likely to be resilient to short- (28 d), but not longer-term (56 d) exposure to warming temperatures. The proximate, fatty acid and metabolite compositions of M. macleayi were unchanged after 28 d exposure to simulated ocean warming and marine heatwaves. The ocean-warming scenario did, however, show potential for elevated sulphur, iron and silver levels after 28 d. Decreasing saturation of fatty acids in M. macleayi after 28 d exposure to cooler temperatures indicates homeoviscous adaptation to seasonal changes. We found that 11 % of measured response variables were significantly different between 28 and 56 d when exposed to the same treatment, indicating the duration of exposure time and time of sampling are critical when measuring this species' nutritional response. Further, we found that future acute warming events could reduce harvestable biomass, despite survivors retaining their nutritional quality. Developing a combined knowledge of the variability in seafood nutrient content with shifts in the availability of harvested seafood is crucial for understanding seafood-derived nutrient security in a changing climate.

Future shock: Ocean acidification and seasonal water temperatures alter the physiology of competing temperate and coral reef fishes

Climate change can directly (physiology) and indirectly (novel species interactions) modify species responses to novel environmental conditions during the initial stages of range shifts. Whilst the effects of climate warming on tropical species at their cold-water leading ranges are well-established, it remains unclear how future seasonal temperature changes, ocean acidification, and novel species interactions will alter the physiology of range-shifting tropical and competing temperate fish in recipient ecosystems. Here we used a laboratory experiment to examine how ocean acidification, future summer vs winter temperatures, and novel species interactions could affect the physiology of competing temperate and range-extending coral reef fish to determine potential range extension outcomes. In future winters (20 °C + elevated pCO₂) coral reef fish at their cold-water leading edges showed reduced physiological performance (lower body condition and cellular defence, and higher oxidative damage) compared to present-day summer (23 °C + control pCO₂) and future summer conditions (26 °C + elevated pCO₂). However, they showed a compensatory effect in future winters through increased long-term energy storage. Contrastingly, co-shoaling temperate fish showed higher oxidative damage, and reduced short-term energy storage and cellular defence in future summer than in future winter conditions at their warm-trailing edges. However, temperate fish benefitted from novel shoaling interactions and showed higher body condition and short-term energy storage when shoaling with coral reef fish compared to same-species shoaling. We conclude that whilst during future summers, ocean warming will likely benefit coral reef fishes extending their ranges, future winter conditions may still reduce coral reef fish physiological functioning, and may therefore slow their establishment at higher latitudes. In contrast, temperate fish species benefit from co-shoaling with smaller-sized tropical fishes, but this benefit may dissipate due to their reduced physiological functioning under future summer temperatures and increasing body sizes of co-shoaling tropical species.

Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions

Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consumption. Despite their abundance, several of these species have undergone population declines over the past century, potentially due to changing oceanography and prey availability over the important winter months. We used light-based geolocation tracking data for 485 individuals deployed between 2006 and 2020 across 10 of the major breeding locations for five taxa of Eudyptes penguins. We used boosted regression tree modelling to quantify post-moult habitat preference for southern rockhopper (E. chrysocome), eastern rockhopper (E. filholi), northern rockhopper (E. moseleyi) and macaroni/royal (E. chrysolophus and E. schlegeli) penguins. We then modelled their redistribution under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (for the end of the century, 2071-2100). As climate forcings differ regionally, we quantified redistribution in the Atlantic, Central Indian, East Indian, West Pacific and East Pacific regions. We found sea surface temperature and sea surface height to be the most important predictors of current habitat for these penguins; physical features that are changing rapidly in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicated that the less severe RCP4.5 would lead to less habitat loss than the more severe RCP8.5. The five taxa of penguin may experience a general poleward redistribution of their preferred habitat, but with contrasting effects in the (i) change in total area of preferred habitat under climate change (ii) according to geographic region and (iii) the species (macaroni/royal vs. rockhopper populations). Our results provide further understanding on the regional impacts and vulnerability of species to climate change.

Climate, currents and species traits contribute to early stages of marine species redistribution

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a rapid redistribution of life on Earth, particularly in the ocean, with profound implications for humans. Yet warming-driven range shifts are known to be influenced by a variety of factors whose combined effects are still little understood. Here, we use scientist-verified out-of-range observations from a national citizen-science initiative to assess the combined effect of long-term warming, climate extremes (i.e., heatwaves and cold spells), ocean currents, and species traits on early stages of marine range extensions in two warming 'hotspot' regions of southern Australia. We find effects of warming to be contingent upon complex interactions with the strength of ocean currents and their mutual directional agreement, as well as species traits. Our study represents the most comprehensive account to date of factors driving early stages of marine species redistributions, providing important evidence for the assessment of the vulnerability of marine species distributions to climate change.

A comprehensive analysis of all known fishes from Sydney Harbour

Fishes represent an important natural resource and yet their diversity and function in dynamic estuaries with relatively high levels of human pressure such as Sydney Harbour have rarely been quantified. Further, Eastern Australia supports the survival and persistence of an increasing number of tropical species found within temperate estuaries owing to increasing average ocean temperatures. A re-valuation of the number of fish species known from Sydney Harbour is therefore needed. In this study, we generated an up-to-date and annotated checklist of fishes recorded from Sydney Harbour based on verified natural history records as well as newly available citizen science records based on opportunistic observations and structured surveys. We explored the spatial and temporal distribution of these records. In addition, we quantified the function, conservation status, and commercial importance of the identified fishes. The number of fish species recorded from Sydney Harbour now stands at 675, an increase of 89 species (15 %) when compared to the most recent evaluation in 2013. We attribute this increase in fish diversity over a relatively short time to the contribution of newer citizen science programs as well as the influx and survival of fishes in the Harbour with preferences for warmer waters. Some fish families were also overrepresented in the more urbanized and polluted sections of the Harbour. In forecasting further environmental impacts on the fishes of Sydney Harbour, we recommend increased integration of collaborative citizen science programs and natural history collections as a means to track these changes.

Staying in place and moving in space: Contrasting larval thermal sensitivity explains distributional changes of sympatric sea urchin species to habitat warming

For marine ectotherms, larval success, planktonic larval duration and dispersal trajectories are strongly influenced by temperature, and therefore, ocean warming and heatwaves have profound impacts on these sensitive stages. Warming, through increased poleward flow in regions with western boundary currents, such as the East Australia Current (EAC), provides opportunities for range extension as propagules track preferred conditions. Two sea urchin species, Centrostephanus rodgersii and Heliocidaris tuberculata, sympatric in the EAC warming hotspot, exhibit contrasting responses to warming. Over half a century, C. rodgersii has undergone marked poleward range extension, but the range of H. tuberculata has not changed. We constructed thermal performance curves (TPC) to determine if contrasting developmental thermal tolerance can explain this difference. The temperatures tested encompassed present-day distribution and forecast ocean warming/heatwave conditions. The broad and narrow thermal optimum (Topt) ranges for C. rodgersii and H. tuberculata larvae (7.2 and 4.7°C range, respectively) matched their realized (adult distribution) thermal niches. The cool and warm temperatures for 50% development to the feeding larva approximated temperatures at adult poleward range limits. Larval cool tolerances with respect to mean local temperature differed, 6.0 and 3.8°C respectively. Larval warm tolerances were similar for both species as are the adult warm range edges. The larvae of both species would be sensitive to heatwaves. Centrostephanus rodgersii has stayed in place and shifted in space, likely due to its broad cold-warm larval thermal tolerance and large thermal safety margins. Phenotypic plasticity of the planktonic stage of C. rodgersii facilitated its range extension. In contrast, larval cold intolerance of H. tuberculata explains its restricted range and will delay poleward extension as the region warms. In a warming ocean, we show that intrinsic thermal biology traits of the pelagic stage provide an integrative tool to explain species-specific variation in range shift patterns.

Retrospective genomics highlights changes in genetic composition of tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier) and potential loss of a south-eastern Australia population

Over the last century, many shark populations have declined, primarily due to overexploitation in commercial, artisanal and recreational fisheries. In addition, in some locations the use of shark control programs also has had an impact on shark numbers. Still, there is a general perception that populations of large ocean predators cover wide areas and therefore their diversity is less susceptible to local anthropogenic disturbance. Here we report on temporal genomic analyses of tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) DNA samples that were collected from eastern Australia over the past century. Using Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) loci, we documented a significant change in genetic composition of tiger sharks born between ~1939 and 2015. The change was most likely due to a shift over time in the relative contribution of two well-differentiated, but hitherto cryptic populations. Our data strongly indicate a dramatic shift in the relative contribution of these two populations to the overall tiger shark abundance on the east coast of Australia, possibly associated with differences in direct or indirect exploitation rates.

Environmental influences on breeding biology and pup production in Australian fur seals

Knowledge of factors affecting a species' breeding biology is crucial to understanding how environmental variability impacts population trajectories and enables predictions on how species may respond to global change. The Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, AUFS) represents the largest marine predator biomass in southeastern Australia, an oceanic region experiencing rapid warming that will impact the abundance and distribution of prey. The present study (1997-2020) investigated breeding phenology and pup production in AUFS on Kanowna Island, northern Bass Strait. The pupping period varied by 11 days and the median pupping date by 8 days and were negatively correlated to 1- and 2-year lagged winter zonal winds, respectively, within Bass Strait. While there was no temporal trend over the study period, annual pup production (1386-2574 pups) was negatively correlated to 1-year lagged summer zonal winds in the Bonney Upwelling region and positively correlated to the current-year Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). In addition, a fecundity index (ratio of new-born pups to adult females at the median pupping date) was positively correlated with current-year Southern Annular Mode (SAM) conditions. Periods of positive SOI and positive SAM conditions are forecast to increase in coming decades, suggesting advantageous conditions for the Kanowna Island AUFS population.

Metabolic plasticity improves lobster's resilience to ocean warming but not to climate-driven novel species interactions

Marine species not only suffer from direct effects of warming oceans but also indirectly via the emergence of novel species interactions. While metabolic adjustments can be crucial to improve resilience to warming, it is largely unknown if this improves performance relative to novel competitors. We aimed to identify if spiny lobsters—inhabiting a global warming and species re-distribution hotspot—align their metabolic performance to improve resilience to both warming and novel species interactions. We measured metabolic and escape capacity of two Australian spiny lobsters, resident Jasus edwardsii and the range-shifting Sagmariasus verreauxi, acclimated to current average—(14.0 °C), current summer—(17.5 °C) and projected future summer—(21.5 °C) habitat temperatures. We found that both species decreased their standard metabolic rate with increased acclimation temperature, while sustaining their scope for aerobic metabolism. However, the resident lobster showed reduced anaerobic escape performance at warmer temperatures and failed to match the metabolic capacity of the range-shifting lobster. We conclude that although resident spiny lobsters optimise metabolism in response to seasonal and future temperature changes, they may be unable to physiologically outperform their range-shifting competitors. This highlights the critical importance of exploring direct as well as indirect effects of temperature changes to understand climate change impacts.

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

Scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal, milestones and indicators for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework

Despite substantial conservation efforts, the loss of ecosystems continues globally, along with related declines in species and nature's contributions to people. An effective ecosystem goal, supported by clear milestones, targets and indicators, is urgently needed for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and beyond to support biodiversity conservation, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and efforts to abate climate change. Here, we describe the scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal and milestones, founded on a theory of change, and review available indicators to measure progress. An ecosystem goal should include three core components: area, integrity and risk of collapse. Targets-the actions that are necessary for the goals to be met-should address the pathways to ecosystem loss and recovery, including safeguarding remnants of threatened ecosystems, restoring their area and integrity to reduce risk of collapse and retaining intact areas. Multiple indicators are needed to capture the different dimensions of ecosystem area, integrity and risk of collapse across all ecosystem types, and should be selected for their fitness for purpose and relevance to goal components. Science-based goals, supported by well-formulated action targets and fit-for-purpose indicators, will provide the best foundation for reversing biodiversity loss and sustaining human well-being.

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.