The consortium for the standardization of influenza seroepidemiology (CONSISE): a global partnership to standardize influenza seroepidemiology and develop influenza investigation protocols to inform public health policy

Evaluation of Vaccine Immunogenicity-Correlates to Real-World Protection: Influenza

Recent events highlighted that, despite decades of studying vaccine immunogenicity and efforts toward finding correlates of protection, evaluating real-world vaccine efficacy as well as establishing meaningful licensing criteria still represents a significant challenge. In this paper, we review all aspects of influenza vaccine immunogenicity, including animal and human challenge studies, humoral and cellular immunity parameters, and their potential correlation with real-life protection from disease.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in standardised first few X cases and household transmission investigations: A systematic review and meta-analysis

We aimed to estimate the household secondary infection attack rate (hSAR) of SARS-CoV-2 in investigations aligned with the WHO Unity Studies Household Transmission Investigations (HHTI) protocol. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis according to PRISMA 2020 guidelines. We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus and medRxiv/bioRxiv for "Unity-aligned" First Few X cases (FFX) and HHTIs published 1 December 2019 to 26 July 2021. Standardised early results were shared by WHO Unity Studies collaborators (to 1 October 2021). We used a bespoke tool to assess investigation methodological quality. Values for hSAR and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were extracted or calculated from crude data. Heterogeneity was assessed by visually inspecting overlap of CIs on forest plots and quantified in meta-analyses. Of 9988 records retrieved, 80 articles (64 from databases; 16 provided by Unity Studies collaborators) were retained in the systematic review; 62 were included in the primary meta-analysis. hSAR point estimates ranged from 2% to 90% (95% prediction interval: 3%-71%; I 2 = 99.7%); I 2 values remained >99% in subgroup analyses, indicating high, unexplained heterogeneity and leading to a decision not to report pooled hSAR estimates. FFX and HHTI remain critical epidemiological tools for early and ongoing characterisation of novel infectious pathogens. The large, unexplained variance in hSAR estimates emphasises the need to further support standardisation in planning, conduct and analysis, and for clear and comprehensive reporting of FFX and HHTIs in time and place, to guide evidence-based pandemic preparedness and response efforts for SARS-CoV-2, influenza and future novel respiratory viruses.

Interlaboratory Reproducibility of Standardized Hemagglutination Inhibition Assays

The hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay is a prominent and commonly accepted method used to determine quantitative antibody titers for influenza virus. However, the reproducibility and consistency of this assay may be affected by several factors, including its reliance on biological reagents that are difficult to standardize, such as red blood cells. This report assesses HI assay performance across three accredited, global laboratories when using test virus and a human serum panel aliquoted and distributed from a centrally located reagent stock. The panel of human sera comprised samples with expected low, medium, and high HI titers against two influenza viruses: A/H1N1/California/07/2009 and B/Victoria/Brisbane/60/2008. HI analysis followed a consensus test protocol. Overall, the HI assay reproducibility within each laboratory was high for both influenza strains, with a within-assay run and intraday precision of 100%. Interlab reproducibility was assessed by comparing the geometric mean titer (GMT) of each sample at each laboratory to the consensus GMT of the sample. A/H1N1 had 100% interlab reproducibility, and none of the individual laboratory GMT values exceeded a 2-fold difference compared to the consensus GMT in any tested sample. B/Victoria had an overall reproducibility of 83%. The results demonstrate that with standardization of key reagents and the use of a common protocol by trained staff, the biologically based HI assay can provide similar results between geographically dispersed laboratories. IMPORTANCE Licensure of influenza vaccines relies on the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay as the primary method to determine quantitative functional antibody titers. The HI assay is also widely used for influenza virus surveillance, characterization, and epidemiology studies. However, the HI assay has a notable lack of reproducibility and consistency. If serology results are required from multiple concurrent studies supporting the development and regulatory approval of a product, the testing capacity of any given testing laboratory may be exceeded and data from more than one testing laboratory included in regulatory filings. Thus, understanding the reproducibility of HI assay results over time and between testing laboratories is necessary to support a robust clinical trial serology data set. Our results demonstrate that with standardization of key reagents and use of a common protocol by experienced and trained staff, the biologically based HI assay can provide similar results between geographically dispersed laboratories.

Harnessing the potential of blood donation archives for influenza surveillance and control

Many blood donation services around the globe maintain large archives of serum and/or plasma specimens of blood donations which could potentially be used for serologic surveillance and risk assessment of influenza. Harnessing this potential requires robust evidence that the outcomes of influenza serology in plasma, which is rarely used, is consistent with that in serum, which is the conventional choice of specimens for influenza serology. We harvested EDTA-plasma specimens from the blood donation archives of Hong Kong Red Cross Transfusion Services, where EDTA is the type of anticoagulant used for plasma collection, compared their antibody titers and responses to that in serum. Influenza A/H1N1/California/7/2009 and A/H3N2/Victoria/208/2009 were the test strains. Our results showed that antibody titers in 609 matched serum/EDTA-plasma specimens (i.e. obtained from the same donor at the same time) had good agreement inferred by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient, the value of which was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.77-0.86) for hemagglutination inhibition assay and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93-0.96) for microneutralization assay; seroconversion rates (based on hemagglutination inhibition titers) during the 2010 and 2011 influenza seasons in Hong Kong inferred from paired EDTA-plasma were similar to that inferred from paired sera. Our study provided the proof-of-concept that blood donation archives could be leveraged as a valuable source of longitudinal blood specimens for the surveillance, control and risk assessment of both pandemic and seasonal influenza.

Meeting report and review: Immunological assays and correlates of protection for next-generation influenza vaccines

BACKGROUND

This report summarizes the discussions and conclusions from the "Immunological Assays and Correlates of Protection for Next-Generation Influenza Vaccines" meeting which took place in Siena, Italy, from March 31, 2019, to April 2, 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Furthermore, we review current correlates of protection against influenza virus infection and disease and their usefulness for the development of next generation broadly protective and universal influenza virus vaccines.

Diagnostic challenges in influenza

In 2018 there are still microbiology laboratories that do not subtype or detect influenza viruses, one of the main agents of community-acquired pneumonia. A major challenge is to introduce multiplex-type technologies into most clinical virological diagnostic laboratories, increasing the feasibility of timely etiological diagnosis of influenza and other respiratory viruses whenever required and thus limiting antibiotic treatments. Other diagnostic tools such as markers of severity and the detection of resistance are pending challenges to complete and expand. Viral culture, an essential tool in the epidemiological surveillance of viruses, has been relegated by more sensitive and affordable molecular techniques. Sequencing of the influenza virus together with the antigenic characterisation and detection techniques of antibodies against hemagglutinin and neuraminidase will, in future, be used in tandem with other techniques to detect antibodies against other structural proteins, helping to elucidate the complicated epidemiology of these viruses and the production of new vaccines and their evaluation. Supplement information: This article is part of a supplement entitled «SEIMC External Quality Control Programme. Year 2016», which is sponsored by Roche, Vircell Microbiologists, Abbott Molecular and Francisco Soria Melguizo, S.A. © 2019 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosasy Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

Primary care influenza-like illness surveillance in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam 2013-2015

Background

Year‐round transmission of influenza has been detected in Vietnam through both national surveillance and other epidemiological studies. Understanding the demographic and clinical features of influenza‐like illness (ILI) presenting to primary care in urban Vietnam is vital to understand these transmission dynamics.

Methods

An observational study of patients with ILI in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, was conducted between August 2013 and November 2015 in a mix of public and private primary care settings. Molecular testing for influenza A and influenza B and 12 other respiratory viruses was performed.

Results

A total of 1152 ILI patients were recruited. 322 and 136 subjects tested positive for influenza A and influenza B, respectively. 193 subjects tested positive for another respiratory virus; most commonly rhinovirus and parainfluenza virus 3. Influenza was detected in 81% of the 116 study weeks. Three peaks of influenza activity were detected; an H3N2 peak April‐June 2014, an influenza B peak July‐December 2014, and a mixed H3N2 and H1N1 peak March‐September 2015. Subjects recruited from private clinics were more likely to have higher income and to have reported previous influenza vaccination. Antibiotic use was common (50.3%) despite limited evidence of bacterial infection.

Conclusion

Influenza in southern Vietnam has complex transmission dynamics including periods of intense influenza activity of alternating types and subtypes. Broadening surveillance from hospital to the community in tropical settings is feasible and a valuable for improving our understanding of the global spread and evolution of the virus.

Report on eighth WHO meeting on development of influenza vaccines that induce broadly protective and long-lasting immune responses: Chicago, USA, 23-24 August 2016

In August 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) convened the "Eighth meeting on development of influenza vaccines that induce broadly protective and long-lasting immune responses" to discuss the regulatory requirements and pathways for licensure of next-generation influenza vaccines, and to identify areas where WHO can promote the development of such vaccines. Participants included approximately 120 representatives of academia, the vaccine industry, research and development funders, and regulatory and public health agencies. They reviewed the draft WHO preferred product characteristics (PPCs) of vaccines that could address prioritized unmet public health needs and discussed the challenges facing the development of such vaccines, especially for low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). They defined the data desired by public-health decision makers globally and explored how to support the progression of promising candidates into late-stage clinical trials and for all countries. This report highlights the major discussions of the meeting.

Avian influenza overview September - November 2017

Between 1 September and 15 November 2017, 48 A(H5N8) highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry holdings and 9 H5 HPAI wild bird events were reported within Europe. A second epidemic HPAI A(H5N8) wave started in Italy on the third week of July and is still ongoing on 15 November 2017. The Italian epidemiological investigations indicated that sharing of vehicles, sharing of personnel and close proximity to infected holdings are the more likely sources of secondary spread in a densely populated poultry area. Despite the ongoing human exposures to infected poultry during the outbreaks, no transmission to humans has been identified in the EU. The report includes an update of the list of wild bird target species for passive surveillance activities that is based on reported AI-infected wild birds since 2006. The purpose of this list is to provide information on which bird species to focus in order to achieve the most effective testing of dead birds for detection of H5 HPAI viruses. Monitoring the avian influenza situation in other continents revealed the same risks as in the previous report (October 2016-August 2017): the recent human case of HPAI A(H5N6) in China underlines the continuing threat of this avian influenza virus to human health and possible introduction via migratory wild birds into Europe. Close monitoring is required of the situation in Africa with regards to HPAI of the subtypes A(H5N1) and A(H5N8), given the rapidity of the evolution and the uncertainty on the geographical distribution of these viruses. Interactions between EFSA and member states have taken place to initiate discussions on improving the quality of data collections and to find a step-wise approach to exchange relevant (denominator) data without causing an additional resource burden.

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome

Between September 2012 and January 20, 2017, the World Health Organization (WHO) received reports from 27 countries of 1879 laboratory-confirmed cases in humans of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) caused by infection with the MERS coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and at least 659 related deaths. Cases of MERS-CoV infection continue to occur, including sporadic zoonotic infections in humans across the Arabian Peninsula, occasional importations and associated clusters in other regions, and outbreaks of nonsustained human-to-human transmission in health care settings. Dromedary camels are considered to be the most likely source of animal-to-human transmission. MERS-CoV enters host cells after binding the dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) receptor and the carcinoembryonic antigen–related cell-adhesion molecule 5 (CEACAM5) cofactor ligand, and it replicates efficiently in the human respiratory epithelium. Illness begins after an incubation period of 2 to 14 days and frequently results in hypoxemic respiratory failure and the need for multiorgan support. However, asymptomatic and mild cases also occur. Real-time reverse-transcription–polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) testing of respiratory secretions is the mainstay for diagnosis, and samples from the lower respiratory tract have the greatest yield among seriously ill patients. There is no antiviral therapy of proven efficacy, and thus treatment remains largely supportive; potential vaccines are at an early developmental stage. There are multiple gaps in knowledge regarding the evolution and transmission of the virus, disease pathogenesis, treatment, and prospects for a vaccine. The ongoing occurrence of MERS in humans and the associated high mortality call for a continued collaborative approach toward gaining a better understanding of the infection both in humans and in animals. MERS-CoV was first identified in September 2012 in a patient from Saudi Arabia who had hypoxemic respiratory failure and multiorgan illness. Subsequent cases have included infections in humans across the Arabian Peninsula, occasional importations and associated clusters in other regions, and outbreaks of nonsustained human-to-human transmission in health care settings (Fig. 1).

CONSISE statement on the reporting of Seroepidemiologic Studies for influenza (ROSES-I statement): an extension of the STROBE statement

BACKGROUND

Population-based serologic studies are a vital tool for understanding the epidemiology of influenza and other respiratory viruses, including the early assessment of the transmissibility and severity of the 2009 influenza pandemic, and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. However, interpretation of the results of serologic studies has been hampered by the diversity of approaches and the lack of standardized methods and reporting.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the CONSISE ROSES-I statement was to improve the quality and transparency of reporting of influenza seroepidemiologic studies and facilitate the assessment of the validity and generalizability of published results.

METHODS

The ROSES-I statement was developed as an expert consensus of the CONSISE epidemiology and laboratory working groups. The recommendations are presented in the familiar format of a reporting guideline. Because seroepidemiologic studies are a specific type of observational epidemiology study, the ROSES-I statement is built upon the STROBE guidelines. As such, the ROSES-I statement should be seen as an extension of the STROBE guidelines.

RESULTS

The ROSES-I statement presents 42 items that can be used as a checklist of the information that should be included in the results of published seroepidemiologic studies, and which can also serve as a guide to the items that need to be considered during study design and implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

We hope that the ROSES-I statement will contribute to improving the quality of reporting of seroepidemiologic studies.

Weighing serological evidence of human exposure to animal influenza viruses - a literature review

Assessing influenza A virus strains circulating in animals and their potential to cross the species barrier and cause human infections is important to improve human influenza surveillance and preparedness. We reviewed studies describing serological evidence of human exposure to animal influenza viruses. Comparing serological data is difficult due to a lack of standardisation in study designs and in laboratory methods used in published reports. Therefore, we designed a scoring system to assess and weigh specificity of obtained serology results in the selected articles. Many studies report reliable evidence of antibodies to swine influenza viruses among persons occupationally exposed to pigs. Most avian influenza studies target H5, H7 and H9 subtypes and most serological evidence of human exposure to avian influenza viruses is reported for these subtypes. Avian influenza studies receiving a low grade in this review often reported higher seroprevalences in humans compared with studies with a high grade. Official surveillance systems mainly focus on avian H5 and H7 viruses. Swine influenza viruses and avian subtypes other than H5 and H7 (emphasising H9) should be additionally included in official surveillance systems. Surveillance efforts should also be directed towards understudied geographical areas, such as Africa and South America.

Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed.

Standardization of Hemagglutination Inhibition Assay for Influenza Serology Allows for High Reproducibility between Laboratories

Standardization of the hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay for influenza serology is challenging. Poor reproducibility of HAI results from one laboratory to another is widely cited, limiting comparisons between candidate vaccines in different clinical trials and posing challenges for licensing authorities. In this study, we standardized HAI assay materials, methods, and interpretive criteria across five geographically dispersed laboratories of a multidisciplinary influenza research network and then evaluated intralaboratory and interlaboratory variations in HAI titers by repeatedly testing standardized panels of human serum samples. Duplicate precision and reproducibility from comparisons between assays within laboratories were 99.8% (99.2% to 100%) and 98.0% (93.3% to 100%), respectively. The results for 98.9% (95% to 100%) of the samples were within 2-fold of all-laboratory consensus titers, and the results for 94.3% (85% to 100%) of the samples were within 2-fold of our reference laboratory data. Low-titer samples showed the greatest variability in comparisons between assays and between sites. Classification of seroprotection (titer ≥ 40) was accurate in 93.6% or 89.5% of cases in comparison to the consensus or reference laboratory classification, respectively. This study showed that with carefully chosen standardization processes, high reproducibility of HAI results between laboratories is indeed achievable.

Accelerating Influenza Research: Vaccines, Antivirals, Immunomodulators and Monoclonal Antibodies. The Manufacture of a New Wild-Type H3N2 Virus for the Human Viral Challenge Model

BACKGROUND

Influenza and its associated diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality. The United States Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends influenza vaccination for everyone over 6 months of age. The failure of the flu vaccine in 2014-2015 demonstrates the need for a model that allows the rapid development of novel antivirals, universal/intra-seasonal vaccines, immunomodulators, monoclonal antibodies and other novel treatments. To this end we manufactured a new H3N2 influenza virus in compliance with Good Manufacturing Practice for use in the Human Viral Challenge Model.

METHODS AND STRAIN SELECTION

We chose an H3N2 influenza subtype, rather than H1N1, given that this strain has the most substantial impact in terms of morbidity or mortality annually as described by the Centre for Disease Control. We first subjected the virus batch to rigorous adventitious agent testing, confirmed the virus to be wild-type by Sanger sequencing and determined the virus titres appropriate for human use via the established ferret model. We built on our previous experience with other H3N2 and H1N1 viruses to develop this unique model.

HUMAN CHALLENGE AND CONCLUSIONS

We conducted an initial safety and characterisation study in healthy adult volunteers, utilising our unique clinical quarantine facility in London, UK. In this study we demonstrated this new influenza (H3N2) challenge virus to be both safe and pathogenic with an appropriate level of disease in volunteers. Furthermore, by inoculating volunteers with a range of different inoculum titres, we established the minimum infectious titre required to achieve reproducible disease whilst ensuring a sensitive model that can be translated to design of subsequent field based studies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02525055.

International Laboratory Comparison of Influenza Microneutralization Assays for A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and A(H5N1) Influenza Viruses by CONSISE

The microneutralization assay is commonly used to detect antibodies to influenza virus, and multiple protocols are used worldwide. These protocols differ in the incubation time of the assay as well as in the order of specific steps, and even within protocols there are often further adjustments in individual laboratories. The impact these protocol variations have on influenza serology data is unclear. Thus, a laboratory comparison of the 2-day enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and 3-day hemagglutination (HA) microneutralization (MN) protocols, using A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and A(H5N1) viruses, was performed by the CONSISE Laboratory Working Group. Individual laboratories performed both assay protocols, on multiple occasions, using different serum panels. Thirteen laboratories from around the world participated. Within each laboratory, serum sample titers for the different assay protocols were compared between assays to determine the sensitivity of each assay and were compared between replicates to assess the reproducibility of each protocol for each laboratory. There was good correlation of the results obtained using the two assay protocols in most laboratories, indicating that these assays may be interchangeable for detecting antibodies to the influenza A viruses included in this study. Importantly, participating laboratories have aligned their methodologies to the CONSISE consensus 2-day ELISA and 3-day HA MN assay protocols to enable better correlation of these assays in the future.

MoSAIC: Mobile Surveillance for Acute Respiratory Infections and Influenza-Like Illness in the Community

Surveillance for acute respiratory infection (ARI) and influenza-like illness (ILI) relies primarily on reports of medically attended illness. Community surveillance could mitigate delays in reporting, allow for timely collection of respiratory tract samples, and characterize cases of non–medically attended ILI representing substantial personal and economic burden. Text messaging could be utilized to perform longitudinal ILI surveillance in a community-based sample but has not been assessed. We recruited 161 households (789 people) in New York City for a study of mobile ARI/ILI surveillance, and selected reporters received text messages twice weekly inquiring whether anyone in the household was ill. Home visits were conducted to obtain nasal swabs from persons with ARI/ILI. Participants were primarily female, Latino, and publicly insured. During the 44-week period from December 2012 through September 2013, 11,282 text messages were sent. In responses to 8,250 (73.1%) messages, a household reported either that someone was ill or no one was ill; 88.9% of responses were received within 4 hours. Swabs were obtained for 361 of 363 reported ARI/ILI episodes. The median time from symptom onset to nasal swab was 2 days; 65.4% of samples were positive for a respiratory pathogen by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. In summary, text messaging promoted rapid ARI/ILI reporting and specimen collection and could represent a promising approach to timely, community-based surveillance.

Antigenic analyses of highly pathogenic avian influenza a viruses

In response to the ongoing threat to animal and human health posed by HPAI endemic in poultry, Asia (H5N1) and North America (H7N3) have revived efforts to reduce pandemic risk by disease control at the source and improved pandemic vaccines. Discovery of conserved neutralization epitopes in the HA, which mediate broad protection within and across HA subtypes have changed the paradigm of "broadly reactive" or "universal" vaccine design. Development of such vaccines would benefit from comparative antigenic analysis of viruses with increasing divergence within (and between) HA subtypes. A review of recent work to define the antigenic properties of HPAI viruses revealed data generated through an array of experimental approaches. This information has supported diagnostics and vaccine development for animal and human health. Further harmonization of analytical methods is needed to determine the antigenic relationships among multiple lineages of rapidly evolving HPAI viruses.

Fast vaccine design and development based on correlates of protection (COPs)

New and reemerging infectious diseases call for innovative and efficient control strategies of which fast vaccine design and development represent an important element. In emergency situations, when time is limited, identification and use of correlates of protection (COPs) may play a key role as a strategic tool for accelerated vaccine design, testing, and licensure. We propose that general rules for COP-based vaccine design can be extracted from the existing knowledge of protective immune responses against a large spectrum of relevant viral and bacterial pathogens. Herein, we focus on the applicability of this approach by reviewing the established and up-coming COPs for influenza in the context of traditional and a wide array of new vaccine concepts. The lessons learnt from this field may be applied more generally to COP-based accelerated vaccine design for emerging infections.

Human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an assessment of clinical severity

BACKGROUND

Characterisation of the severity profile of human infections with influenza viruses of animal origin is a part of pandemic risk assessment, and an important part of the assessment of disease epidemiology. Our objective was to assess the clinical severity of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus, which emerged in China in early 2013.

METHODS

We obtained information about laboratory-confirmed cases of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection reported as of May 28, 2013, from an integrated database built by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We estimated the risk of fatality, mechanical ventilation, and admission to the intensive care unit for patients who required hospital admission for medical reasons. We also used information about laboratory-confirmed cases detected through sentinel influenza-like illness surveillance to estimate the symptomatic case fatality risk.

FINDINGS

Of 123 patients with laboratory-confirmed avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection who were admitted to hospital, 37 (30%) had died and 69 (56%) had recovered by May 28, 2013. After we accounted for incomplete data for 17 patients who were still in hospital, we estimated the fatality risk for all ages to be 36% (95% CI 26-45) on admission to hospital. Risks of mechanical ventilation or fatality (69%, 95% CI 60-77) and of admission to an intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, or fatality (83%, 76-90) were high. With assumptions about coverage of the sentinel surveillance network and health-care-seeking behaviour for patients with influenza-like illness associated with influenza A H7N9 virus infection, and pro-rata extrapolation, we estimated that the symptomatic case fatality risk could be between 160 (63-460) and 2800 (1000-9400) per 100,000 symptomatic cases.

INTERPRETATION

Human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus seem to be less serious than has been previously reported. Many mild cases might already have occurred. Continued vigilance and sustained intensive control efforts are needed to minimise the risk of human infection.

FUNDING

Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease; Hong Kong University Grants Committee; China-US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases; Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics; US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease; and the US National Institutes of Health.

Transmission scenarios for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and how to tell them apart

Detection of human cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection internationally is a global public health concern. Rigorous risk assessment is particularly challenging in a context where surveillance may be subject to under-ascertainment and a selection bias towards more severe cases. We would like to assess whether the virus is capable of causing widespread human epidemics, and whether self-sustaining transmission is already under way. Here we review possible transmission scenarios for MERS-CoV and their implications for risk assessment and control. We discuss how existing data, future investigations and analyses may help in reducing uncertainty and refining the public health risk assessment and present analytical approaches that allow robust assessment of epidemiological characteristics, even from partial and biased surveillance data. Finally, we urge that adequate data be collected on future cases to permit rigorous assessment of the transmission characteristics and severity of MERS-CoV, and the public health threat it may pose. Going beyond minimal case reporting, open international collaboration, under the guidance of the World Health Organization and the International Health Regulations, will impact on how this potential epidemic unfolds and prospects for control.

Preliminary inferences on the age-specific seriousness of human disease caused by avian influenza A(H7N9) infections in China, March to April 2013

Between 31 March and 21 April 2013, 102 laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H7N9) infections have been reported in six provinces of China. Using survey data on age-specific rates of exposure to live poultry in China, we estimated that risk of serious illness after infection is 5.1 times higher in persons 65 years and older versus younger ages. Our results suggest that many unidentified mild influenza A(H7N9) infections may have occurred, with a lower bound of 210–550 infections to date.

The consortium for the standardization of influenza seroepidemiology (CONSISE): a global partnership to standardize influenza seroepidemiology and develop influenza investigation protocols to inform public health policy

CONSISE - The consortium for the Standardization of Influenza Seroepidemiology - is a global partnership to develop influenza investigation protocols and standardize seroepidemiology to inform health policy. This international partnership was formed in 2011 and was created out of a need, identified during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, for timely seroepidemiological data to better estimate pandemic virus infection severity and attack rates to inform policy decisions. CONSISE has developed into a consortium of two interactive working groups: epidemiology and laboratory, with a steering committee composed of individuals from several organizations. CONSISE has had two international meetings with more planned for 2013. We seek additional members from public health agencies, academic institutions and other interested parties.