Estimates of seasonal influenza-associated mortality in Bangladesh, 2010-2012

Cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in WHO-defined high-risk populations in Bangladesh

Background

Bangladesh carries a substantial health and economic burden of seasonal influenza, particularly among the World Health Organization (WHO)-defined high-risk populations. We implemented a modelling study to determine the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in each of five high-risk groups (pregnant women, children under five years of age, adults with underlying health conditions, older adults (≥60 years), and healthcare personnel) to inform policy decisions on risk group prioritisation for influenza vaccination in Bangladesh.

Methods

We implemented a Markov decision-analytic model to estimate the impact of influenza vaccination for each target risk group. We obtained model inputs from hospital-based influenza surveillance data, unpublished surveys, and published literature (preferentially from studies in Bangladesh, followed by regional and global ones). We used quality-adjusted life years (QALY) as the health outcome of interest. We also estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each risk group by comparing the costs and QALY of vaccinating compared to not vaccinating each group, where the ICER represents the additional cost needed to achieve one year of additional QALY from a given intervention. We considered a willingness-to-pay threshold (ICER) of less than one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as highly cost-effective and of one to three times GDP per capita as cost-effective (per WHO standard). For Bangladesh, this threshold ranges between USD 2462 and USD 7386.

Results

The estimated ICERs were USD -99, USD -87, USD -4, USD 792, and USD 229 per QALY gained for healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), children aged less than five years, adults with comorbid conditions, and pregnant women, respectively. For all risk groups, ICERs were below the WHO willingness-to-pay threshold for Bangladesh. Vaccinating pregnant women and adults with comorbid conditions was highly cost-effective per additional life year gained, while vaccinating healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), and children under five years were cost-saving per additional life year gained.

Conclusions

Influenza vaccination to all target risk groups in Bangladesh would be either cost-saving or cost-effective, per WHO guidelines of GDP-based thresholds.

Incidence of Hospitalization due to Influenza-Associated Severe Acute Respiratory Infection During 2010-2019 in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Global influenza-associated acute respiratory infections contribute to 3-5 million severe illnesses requiring hospitalization annually, with 90% of hospitalizations occurring among children < 5 years in developing countries. In Bangladesh, the inadequate availability of nationally representative, robust estimates of influenza-associated hospitalizations limits allocation of resources for prevention and control measures.

METHODS

This study used data from the hospital-based influenza surveillance (HBIS) system in Bangladesh from 2010 to 2019 and healthcare utilization surveys to determine hospital utilization patterns in the catchment area. We estimated annual influenza-associated hospitalization numbers and rates for all age groups in Bangladesh using WHO methods, adjusted for a 6-day-a-week enrollment schedule, selective testing of specimens from children under five, and healthcare-seeking behavior, based on the proportion of symptomatic community participants seeking healthcare within the past week. We then estimated national hospitalization rates by multiplying age-specific hospitalization rates with the corresponding annual national census population.

RESULTS

Annual influenza-associated hospitalization rates per 100,000 population for all ages ranged from 31 (95% CI: 27-36) in 2011 to 139 (95% CI: 130-149) in 2019. Children < 5 years old had the highest rates of influenza-associated hospitalization, ranging from 114 (95% CI: 90-138) in 2011 to 529 (95% CI: 481-578) in 2019, followed by adults aged ≥ 65 years with rates ranging from 46 (95% CI: 34-57) in 2012 to 252 (95% CI: 213-292) in 2019. The national hospitalization estimates for all ages during 2010-2019 ranged from 47,891 to 236,380 per year.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of influenza-associated hospitalizations in Bangladesh may be considerable, particularly for young children and older adults. Targeted interventions, such as influenza vaccination for these age groups, should be prioritized and evaluated.

Prevalence of influenza and other acute respiratory illnesses in patients with acute myocardial infarction in Bangladesh: A cross-sectional study

Background and Aims

Several studies imply that influenza and other respiratory illnesses could lead to acute myocardial infarction (AMI), but data from low-income countries are scarce. We investigated the prevalence of recent respiratory illnesses and confirmed influenza in AMI patients, while also exploring their relationship with infarction severity as defined by ST-elevation MI (STEMI) or high troponin levels.

Methods

This cross-sectional study, held at a Dhaka tertiary hospital from May 2017 to October 2018, involved AMI inpatients. The study examined self-reported clinical respiratory illnesses (CRI) in the week before AMI onset and confirmed influenza using baseline real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR).

Results

Of 744 patients, 11.3% reported a recent CRI, most prominently during the 2017 influenza season (35.7%). qRT-PCR testing found evidence of influenza in 1.5% of 546 patients, with all positives among STEMI cases. Frequencies of CRI were higher in patients with STEMI and in those with high troponin levels, although these relationships were not statistically significant after adjusting for other variables. The risk of STEMI was significantly greater during influenza seasons in the unadjusted analysis (relative risk: 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.18), however, this relationship was not significant in the adjusted analysis (adjusted relative risk: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.91-1.16).

Conclusion

In Bangladesh, many AMI patients had a recent respiratory illness history, with some showing evidence of influenza. However, these illnesses showed no significant relationship to AMI severity. Further research is needed to understand these relationships better and to investigate the potential benefits of infection control measures and influenza vaccinations in reducing AMI incidence.

Post-discharge mortality among patients hospitalised with severe acute respiratory infection, Bangladesh, 2012-2019: a prospective observational study

Background

Enhancing outcomes post-hospitalisation requires an understanding of predictive factors for adverse events. This study aimed to estimate post-discharge mortality rates among patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Bangladesh, identify associated factors, and document reported causes of death.

Methods

From January 2012 to December 2019, we conducted follow-up calls to patients or their families 30 days after discharge to assess the status of patients with SARI. Proportions of deaths within 30 days of discharge were estimated, and a comparative analysis of demographics, clinical characteristics, and influenza illness between decedents and survivors was performed using multivariable Cox regression models.

Findings

Among 23,360 patients with SARI (median age: 20 years, IQR: 1.5-48, 65% male), 351 (1.5%) died during hospitalisation. Of 23,009 patients alive at discharge, 20,044 (87%) were followed, with 633 (3.2%) deaths within 30 days of discharge. In children (<18 years), difficulty breathing (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-3.0), longer hospital stay (aHR 1.1; 95% CI 1.1-1.1), and heart diseases (aHR 8.5; 95% CI 3.2-23.1) were associated with higher post-discharge death risk. Among adults (≥18 years), difficulty breathing (aHR 2.3; 95% CI 1.7-3.0), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR 1.7; 95% CI 1.4-2.2), and intensive care unit admission (aHR 5.2; 95% CI 1.9-14.0) were linked to elevated post-discharge death risk. Influenza virus was detected in 13% (46/351) of in-hospital SARI deaths and 10% (65/633) of post-discharge SARI deaths.

Interpretation

Nearly one in twenty patients with SARI died during hospitalisation or within 1 month of discharge, with two-thirds of deaths occurring post-discharge. Seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended to mitigate influenza-associated mortality. To enhance post-discharge outcomes, hospitals should consider developing safe-discharge algorithms, reinforcing post-discharge care plans, and establishing outpatient monitoring for recently discharged patients.

Funding

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, USA [U01GH002259].

Acceptability, cost-effectiveness, and capacity of a facility-based seasonal influenza vaccination among high-risk groups: a study protocol in selected tertiary care hospitals of Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

In Bangladesh, seasonal influenza imposes considerable disease and economic burden, especially for those at high-risk of severe disease. The most successful approach for influenza prevention is the administration of a vaccine. Many poor and middle-income nations, including Bangladesh, do not have a national strategy or program in place for seasonal influenza vaccines, despite the World Health Organization's (WHO) advice to prioritize high-risk populations. Additionally, there is a scarcity of substantial data on the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in these countries. The aim of our study is to determine acceptability, health beliefs, barriers, and intention of receiving influenza vaccine among high-risk populations, assess the cost-effectiveness of implementing a facility-based seasonal influenza vaccination programme, and investigate the required capacity for a potential seasonal influenza vaccination programme.

METHODS

We will undertake this study following STROBE guidelines. We will conduct the study in inpatient and outpatient departments of three selected tertiary-level hospitals leveraging the ongoing hospital-based influenza surveillance (HBIS) platform. The study population will include the WHO-defined four high-risk groups excluding healthcare workers: children six months to eight years, pregnant women, elderly ≥ 60 years, and adults with chronic diseases. We will collect quantitative data on participants' acceptability, health beliefs, barriers, and vaccination intentions using the health belief model (HBM) from patients meeting the criteria for high-risk populations attending two public tertiary-level hospitals. In one of the two public tertiary-level hospitals, we will arrange an influenza vaccination campaign before the influenza season, where the vaccine will be offered free of cost to high-risk patients, and in the second hospital, vaccination will not be offered. Both the vaccinated and unvaccinated participants will then be followed-up once a month for one year to record any influenza-like illness, hospitalization, and death. Additional data for objective two will be collected from patients with symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) at one public and one private hospital to determine both direct and indirect costs associated with influenza illness. We will estimate the required number of influenza vaccines, safe injections, and total storage volume utilizing secondary data. We will use a deterministic Markov decision-analytic model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of facility-based influenza vaccination in Bangladesh.

DISCUSSION

The results of this study will enable the National Immunization Technical Advisory Group and the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare of Bangladesh to decide what steps to take to develop and implement an influenza vaccination strategy targeting high-risk populations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The Clinicaltrials.gov registration number is NCT05996549. The registration for the protocol version 2.0 took place in August 2023, with the initial participant being enrolled in March 2022.

Characterizing deaths among adult patients with severe acute respiratory infection: during the pre- and COVID-19 pandemic periods in Bangladesh, 2018-2022

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) is a leading cause of mortality globally, peaking during the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed SARI-associated deaths during the pre-and-pandemic periods in Bangladesh to identify the contributing factors.

METHODS

We analyzed data from hospital-based influenza surveillance at nine tertiary-level hospitals in Bangladesh. We considered March 2018-February 2020 as the pre-pandemic period and March 2020-February 2022 as the pandemic period and included adult (≥ 18 years) participants in our study. Surveillance physicians identified WHO-SARI case definition meeting inpatients and collected demographics, clinical characteristics, and outcomes at hospital discharge and 30 days post-discharge. We performed rRT-PCR for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses on collected nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs. We used multivariable Cox's regression models to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) for factors associated with SARI deaths in these adult patients.

RESULTS

We enrolled 4392 SARI patients during the pre-pandemic and 3824 SARI patients during the pandemic period. Case fatality ratio was higher during the pandemic: 13.62% (521) [in-hospital: 6.45% (247); post-discharge: 7.17% (274)] compared to pre-pandemic, 6.01% (264) [in-hospital: 2.01% (89), post-discharge: 4% (175)] (p < 0.001). Pre-pandemic, influenza was detected in 14% (37/264) of SARI deaths. Influenza was detected during the pandemic in 2.3% (12/521), SARS-CoV-2 in 41.8% (218/521), and both viruses in only one SARI death. History of smoking and the presence of 1 or more co-morbid conditions independently attributed to SARI deaths in adults in the pre-pandemic period. SARI deaths in such patients were also associated with respiratory difficulties on admission in both pre-pandemic (aHR 2.36; 95% CI:1.65-3.36) and pandemic period (aHR 2.30; 95% CI: 1.57-3.35) after accounting for age, sex, smoking status, presence of 1 or more co-morbid conditions, and detection of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

During the pandemic, SARI mortality increased; influenza-associated mortality declined, and SARS-CoV-2 caused over a third of SARI deaths. Post-discharge mortality was higher than in-hospital mortality during both periods. Limiting premature discharge and strengthening post-discharge monitoring and nursing services could reduce unexpected deaths. Formative research to better understand post-discharge mortality is essential to reduce SARI deaths.

Systematic review of influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza among older adults living in aged care facilities

We estimated the effectiveness of influenza vaccines in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza among older adults in aged care. Electronic database searches were conducted using search terms, and studies were selected as per the selection criteria. Fourteen studies were included for final review. The studies exhibited considerable variation in reported vaccine effectiveness (VE) across different seasons. Among the observational studies, VE ranged from 7.2% to 89.8% against laboratory-confirmed influenza across different vaccines. Randomized clinical trials demonstrated a 17% reduction in infection rates with the adjuvanted trivalent vaccine. The limitations include the small number of included studies conducted in different countries or regions, varied seasons, variations in diagnostic testing methods, a focus on the A/H3N2 strain, and few studies available on the effectiveness of enhanced influenza vaccines in aged care settings. Despite challenges associated with achieving optimal protection, the studies showed the benefits of influenza vaccination in the elderly residents.

Association of recent respiratory illness and influenza with acute myocardial infarction among the Bangladeshi population: A case-control study

Current evidence suggests that recent acute respiratory infections and seasonal influenza may precipitate acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This study examined the potential link between recent clinical respiratory illness (CRI) and influenza, and AMI in Bangladesh. Conducted during the 2018 influenza season at a Dhaka tertiary-level cardiovascular (CV) hospital, it included 150 AMI cases and two control groups: 44 hospitalized cardiac patients without AMI and 90 healthy individuals. Participants were matched by gender and age groups. The study focused on self-reported CRI and laboratory-confirmed influenza ascertained via quantitative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) within the preceding week, analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. Results showed that cases reported CRI, significantly more frequently than healthy controls (27.3% vs. 13.3%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-4.06), although this was not significantly different from all controls (27.3% vs. 22.4%; aOR: 1.19; 95% CI: 0.65-2.18). Influenza rates were insignificantly higher among cases than controls. The study suggests that recent respiratory illnesses may precede AMI onset among Bangladeshi patients. Infection prevention and control practices, as well as the uptake of the influenza vaccine, may be advocated for patients at high risk of acute CV events.

Optimal timing of influenza vaccination among patients with acute myocardial infarction - Findings from the IAMI trial

Influenza vaccination reduces the risk of adverse cardiovascular events.The IAMI trial randomly assigned 2571 patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) to receive influenza vaccine or saline placebo during their index hospital admission. It was conducted at 30 centers in 8 countries from October 1, 2016 to March 1, 2020. In this post-hoc exploratory sub-study, we compare the trial outcomes in patients receiving early season vaccination (n = 1188) and late season vaccination (n = 1344).The primary endpoint wasthe composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stent thrombosis at 12 months. Thecumulative incidence of the primary and key secondary endpoints by randomized treatment and early or late vaccination was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. In the early vaccinated group, the primary composite endpoint occurred in 36 participants (6.0%) assigned to influenza vaccine and 49 (8.4%) assigned to placebo (HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.45 to 1.07), compared to 31 participants (4.7%) assigned to influenza vaccine and 42 (6.2%) assigned to placebo (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.47 to 1.18) in the late vaccinated group (P = 0.848 for interaction on HR scale at 1 year). We observed similar estimates for the key secondary endpoints of all-cause death and CV death. There was no statistically significant difference in vaccine effectiveness against adverse cardiovascular events by timing of vaccination. The effect of vaccination on all-cause death at one year was more pronounced in the group receiving early vaccination (HR 0.50; 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.86) compared late vaccination group (HR 0.75; 35% CI, 0.40 to 1.40) but there was no statistically significant difference between these groups (Interaction P = 0.335). In conclusion,there is insufficient evidence from the trial to establish whether there is a difference in efficacy between early and late vaccinationbut regardless of vaccination timing we strongly recommend influenza vaccination in all patients with cardiovascular diseases.

Priority setting of vaccine introduction in Bangladesh: a multicriteria decision analysis study

OBJECTIVE

To prioritise vaccines for introduction in Bangladesh.

METHODS

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) process was used to prioritise potential vaccines for introduction in Bangladesh. A set of criteria were identified, weighted and assigned scores by relevant stakeholders (n=14) during workshop A. The performance matrix of the data of vaccines against the criteria set was constructed and validated with the experts (n=6) in workshop B. The vaccines were ranked and appraised by another group of stakeholders (n=10) in workshop C, and the final workshop D involved the dissemination of the findings to decision-makers (n=28).

RESULTS

Five criteria including incidence rate, case fatality rate, vaccine efficacy, size of the population at risk and type of population at risk were used quantitatively to evaluate and to score the vaccines. Two other criteria, cost-effectiveness and outbreak potentiality, were considered qualitatively. On deliberation, the Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccine was ranked top to be recommended for introduction in Bangladesh.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the MCDA results, JE vaccine is planned to be recommended to the decision-makers for introduction into the national vaccine benefit package. The policymakers support the use of systematic evidence-based decision-making processes such as MCDA for vaccine introduction in Bangladesh, and to prioritise health interventions in the country.

Establishing a sentinel surveillance system for the novel COVID-19 in a resource-limited country: methods, system attributes and early findings

OBJECTIVES

To establish a hospital-based platform to explore the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients screened for COVID-19.

DESIGN

Hospital-based surveillance.

SETTING

This study was conducted in four selected hospitals in Bangladesh during 10 June-31 August 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

In total, 2345 patients of all age (68% male) attending the outpatient and inpatient departments of surveillance hospitals with any one or more of the following symptoms within last 7 days: fever, cough, sore throat and respiratory distress.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The outcome measures were COVID-19 positivity and mortality rate among enrolled patients. Pearson's χ² test was used to compare the categorical variables (sign/symptoms, comorbidities, admission status and COVID-19 test results). Regression analysis was performed to determine the association between potential risk factors and death.

RESULTS

COVID-19 was detected among 922 (39%) enrolled patients. It was more common in outpatients with a peak positivity in second week of July (112, 54%). The median age of the confirmed COVID-19 cases was 38 years (IQR: 30-50), 654 (71%) were male and 83 (9%) were healthcare workers. Cough (615, 67%) was the most common symptom, followed by fever (493, 53%). Patients with diabetes were more likely to get COVID-19 than patients without diabetes (48% vs 38%; OR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2 to 1.9). The death rate among COVID-19 positive was 2.3%, n=21. Death was associated with age ≥60 years (adjusted OR (AOR): 13.9; 95% CI: 5.5 to 34), shortness of breath (AOR: 9.7; 95% CI: 3.0 to 30), comorbidity (AOR: 4.8; 95% CI: 1.1 to 21.7), smoking history (AOR: 2.2, 95% CI: 0.7 to 7.1), attending the hospital in <2 days of symptom onset due to critical illness (AOR: 4.7; 95% CI: 1.2 to 17.8) and hospital admission (AOR: 3.4; 95% CI: 1.2 to 9.8).

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 positivity was observed in more than one-third of patients with suspected COVID-19 attending selected hospitals. While managing such patients, the risk factors identified for higher death rates should be considered.

SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus coinfection among patients with severe acute respiratory infection during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh: a hospital-based descriptive study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus coinfection among severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases-patients during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh.

DESIGN

Descriptive study.

SETTING

Nine tertiary level hospitals across Bangladesh.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients admitted as SARI (defined as cases with subjective or measured fever of ≥38 C° and cough with onset within the last 10 days and requiring hospital admission) case-patients.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus coinfection and proportion of mortality among SARI case-patients.

RESULTS

We enrolled 1986 SARI case-patients with a median age: 28 years (IQR: 1.2-53 years), and 67.6% were male. Among them, 285 (14.3%) were infected with SARS-CoV-2; 175 (8.8%) were infected with the influenza virus, and five (0.3%) were coinfected with both viruses. There was a non-appearance of influenza during the usual peak season (May to July) in Bangladesh. SARS-CoV-2 infection was significantly more associated with diabetes (14.0% vs 5.9%, p<0.001) and hypertension (26.7% vs 11.5%, p<0.001). But influenza among SARI case-patients was significantly less associated with diabetes (4.0% vs 7.4%, p=0.047) and hypertension (5.7% vs 14.4%, p=0.001). The proportion of in-hospital deaths among SARS-CoV-2 infected SARI case-patients were higher (10.9% (n=31) vs 4.4% (n=75), p<0.001) than those without SARS-CoV-2 infection; the proportion of postdischarge deaths within 30 days was also higher (9.1% (n=25) vs 4.6% (n=74), p=0.001) among SARS-CoV-2 infected SARI case-patients than those without infection. No in-hospital mortality or postdischarge mortality was registered among the five coinfected SARI case-patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that coinfection with SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus was not very common and had less disease severity considering mortality in Bangladesh. There was no circulating influenza virus during the influenza peak season during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Future studies are warranted for further exploration.

Seasonal influenza during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh

INTRODUCTION

During the 2019 novel coronavirus infectious disease (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020, limited data from several countries suggested reduced seasonal influenza viruses' circulation. This was due to community mitigation measures implemented to control the pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We used sentinel surveillance data to identify changes in the 2020 influenza season compared with previous seasons in Bangladesh.

METHODS

We used hospital-based influenza surveillance (HBIS) data of Bangladesh that are generated year-round and are population-representative severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) data for all age groups from seven public and two private tertiary care level hospitals data from 2016 to 2019. We applied the moving epidemic method (MEM) by using R language (v4.0.3), and MEM web applications (v2.14) on influenza-positive rates of SARI cases collected weekly to estimate an average seasonal influenza curve and establish epidemic thresholds.

RESULTS

The 2016-2019 average season started on epi week 18 (95% CI: 15-25) and lasted 12.5 weeks (95% CI: 12-14 weeks) until week 30.5. The 2020 influenza season started on epi week 36 and ended at epi week 41, lasting for only five weeks. Therefore, influenza epidemic started 18 weeks later, was 7.5 weeks shorter, and was less intense than the average epidemic of the four previous years. The 2020 influenza season started on the same week when COVID-19 control measures were halted, and 13 weeks after the measures were relaxed.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that seasonal influenza circulation in Bangladesh was delayed and less intense in 2020 than in previous years. Community mitigation measures may have contributed to this reduction of seasonal influenza transmission. These findings contribute to a limited but growing body of evidence that influenza seasons were altered globally in 2020.

Use of Antimicrobials among Suspected COVID-19 Patients at Selected Hospitals, Bangladesh: Findings from the First Wave of COVID-19 Pandemic

Antimicrobials are empirically used in COVID-19 patients resulting in increased antimicrobial resistance. Our objective was to assess antimicrobial use among suspected COVID-19 in-patients. From March to August 2020, we collected data from in-patients of 12 tertiary-level hospitals across Bangladesh. We identified suspected COVID-19 patients; collected information on antimicrobial received within 24 h before and on hospitalization; tested nasopharyngeal swab for SARS-CoV-2 using rRT-PCR. We used descriptive statistics and a regression model for data analysis. Among 1188 suspected COVID-19 patients, 69% were male, 40% had comorbidities, and 53% required oxygen. Antibiotics were used in 92% of patients, 47% within 24 h before, and 89% on admission. Patients also received antiviral (1%) and antiparasitic drugs (3%). Third-generation cephalosporin use was the highest (708; 60%), followed by macrolide (481; 40%), and the majority (853; 78%) who took antibiotics were SARS-CoV-2 negative. On admission, 77% mild and 94% moderately ill patients received antibiotics. Antibiotic use on admission was higher among severely ill patients (AOR = 11.7; 95% CI: 4.5-30.1) and those who received antibiotics within 24 h before hospital admission (AOR = 1.6; 95% CI: 1.0-2.5). Antimicrobial use was highly prevalent among suspected COVID-19 in-patients in Bangladesh. Initiating treatment with third-generation cephalosporin among mild to moderately ill patients was common. Promoting antimicrobial stewardship with monitoring is essential to prevent blanket antibiotic use, thereby mitigating antimicrobial resistance.

Barriers and activities to implementing or expanding influenza vaccination programs in low- and middle-income countries: A global survey

INTRODUCTION

Despite considerable global burden of influenza, few low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have national influenza vaccination programs. This report provides a systematic assessment of barriers to and activities that support initiating or expanding influenza vaccination programs from the perspective of in-country public health officials.

METHODS

Public health officials in LMICs were sent a web-based survey to provide information on barriers and activities to initiating, expanding, or maintaining national influenza vaccination programs. The survey primarily included Likert-scale questions asking respondents to rank barriers and activities in five categories.

RESULTS

Of 109 eligible countries, 62% participated. Barriers to influenza vaccination programs included lack of data on cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination programs (87%) and on influenza disease burden (84%), competing health priorities (80%), lack of public perceived risk from influenza (79%), need for better risk communication tools (77%), lack of financial support for influenza vaccine programs (75%), a requirement to use only WHO-prequalified vaccines (62%), and young children require two vaccine doses (60%). Activities for advancing influenza vaccination programs included educating healthcare workers (97%) and decision-makers (91%) on the benefits of influenza vaccination, better estimates of influenza disease burden (91%) and cost of influenza vaccination programs (89%), simplifying vaccine introduction by focusing on selected high-risk groups (82%), developing tools to prioritize target populations (80%), improving availability of influenza diagnostic testing (79%), and developing collaborations with neighboring countries for vaccine procurement (74%) and regulatory approval (73%). Responses varied by country region and income status.

CONCLUSIONS

Local governments and key international stakeholders can use the results of this survey to improve influenza vaccination programs in LMICs, which is a critical component of global pandemic preparedness for influenza and other pathogens such as coronaviruses. Additionally, strategies to improve global influenza vaccination coverage should be tailored to country income level and geographic location.

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human metapneumovirus in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study

BACKGROUND

Human metapneumovirus is a common virus associated with acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) in children. No global burden estimates are available for ALRIs associated with human metapneumovirus in children, and no licensed vaccines or drugs exist for human metapneumovirus infections. We aimed to estimate the age-stratified human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI global incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality burden in children younger than 5 years.

METHODS

We estimated the global burden of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRIs in children younger than 5 years from a systematic review of 119 studies published between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2019, and a further 40 high quality unpublished studies. We assessed risk of bias using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We estimated incidence, hospital admission rates, and in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. We applied incidence and hospital admission rates of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI to population estimates to yield the morbidity burden estimates by age bands and World Bank income levels. We also estimated human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI in-hospital deaths and overall human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (both in-hospital and non-hospital deaths). Additionally, we estimated human metapneumovirus-attributable ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and deaths by combining human metapneumovirus-associated burden estimates and attributable fractions of human metapneumovirus in laboratory-confirmed human metapneumovirus cases and deaths.

FINDINGS

In 2018, among children younger than 5 years globally, there were an estimated 14·2 million human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI cases (uncertainty range [UR] 10·2 million to 20·1 million), 643 000 human metapneumovirus-associated hospital admissions (UR 425 000 to 977 000), 7700 human metapneumovirus-associated in-hospital deaths (2600 to 48 800), and 16 100 overall (hospital and community) human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (5700 to 88 000). An estimated 11·1 million ALRI cases (UR 8·0 million to 15·7 million), 502 000 ALRI hospital admissions (UR 332 000 to 762 000), and 11 300 ALRI deaths (4000 to 61 600) could be causally attributed to human metapneumovirus in 2018. Around 58% of the hospital admissions were in infants under 12 months, and 64% of in-hospital deaths occurred in infants younger than 6 months, of which 79% occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

INTERPRETATION

Infants younger than 1 year have disproportionately high risks of severe human metapneumovirus infections across all World Bank income regions and all child mortality settings, similar to respiratory syncytial virus and influenza virus. Infants younger than 6 months in low-income and lower-middle-income countries are at greater risk of death from human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI than older children and those in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Our mortality estimates demonstrate the importance of intervention strategies for infants across all settings, and warrant continued efforts to improve the outcome of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI among young infants in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory mortality in India, 2010-2013

Background

Influenza causes substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide, however, reliable burden estimates from developing countries are limited, including India. We aimed to quantify influenza-associated mortality for India utilizing 2010-2013 nationally representative data sources for influenza virus circulation and deaths.

Methods

Virological data were obtained from the influenza surveillance network of 10 laboratories led by National Institute of Virology, Pune covering eight states from 2010-2013. Death data were obtained from the nationally representative Sample Registration System for the same time period. Generalized linear regression with negative binomial distribution was used to model weekly respiratory and circulatory deaths by age group and proportion of specimens positive for influenza by subtype; excess deaths above the seasonal baseline were taken as an estimate of influenza-associated mortality counts and rates. Annual excess death rates and the 2011 India Census data were used to estimate national influenza-associated deaths.

Results

Estimated annual influenza-associated respiratory mortality rates were highest for those ≥65 years (51.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 9.2-93.0 deaths/100 000 population) followed by those <5 years (9.8, 95% CI = 0-21.8/100 000). Influenza-associated circulatory death rates were also higher among those ≥65 years (71.8, 95% CI = 7.9-135.8/100 000) as compared to those aged <65 years (1.9, 95% CI = 0-4.6/100 000). Across all age groups, a mean of 127 092 (95% CI = 64 046-190,139) annual influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory deaths may occur in India.

Conclusions

Estimated influenza-associated mortality in India was high among children <5 years and adults ≥65 years. These estimates may inform strategies for influenza prevention and control in India, such as possible vaccine introduction.

The epidemiology and estimated etiology of pathogens detected from the upper respiratory tract of adults with severe acute respiratory infections in multiple countries, 2014-2015

Introduction

Etiology studies of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in adults are limited. We studied potential etiologies of SARI among adults in six countries using multi-pathogen diagnostics.

Methods

We enrolled both adults with SARI (acute respiratory illness onset with fever and cough requiring hospitalization) and asymptomatic adults (adults hospitalized with non-infectious illnesses, non-household members accompanying SARI patients, adults enrolled from outpatient departments, and community members) in each country. Demographics, clinical data, and nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal specimens were collected from both SARI patients and asymptomatic adults. Specimens were tested for presence of 29 pathogens utilizing the Taqman^® Array Card platform. We applied a non-parametric Bayesian regression extension of a partially latent class model approach to estimate proportions of SARI caused by specific pathogens.

Results

We enrolled 2,388 SARI patients and 1,135 asymptomatic adults from October 2013 through October 2015. We detected ≥1 pathogen in 76% of SARI patients and 67% of asymptomatic adults. Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae were most commonly detected (≥23% of SARI patients and asymptomatic adults). Through modeling, etiology was attributed to a pathogen in most SARI patients (range among countries: 57.3–93.2%); pathogens commonly attributed to SARI etiology included influenza A (14.4–54.4%), influenza B (1.9–19.1%), rhino/enterovirus (1.8–42.6%), and RSV (3.6–14.6%).

Conclusions

Use of multi-pathogen diagnostics and modeling enabled attribution of etiology in most adult SARI patients, despite frequent detection of multiple pathogens in the upper respiratory tract. Seasonal flu vaccination and development of RSV vaccine would likely reduce the burden of SARI in these populations.

Time-aggregated mobile phone mobility data are sufficient for modelling influenza spread: the case of Bangladesh

Human mobility plays a major role in the spatial dissemination of infectious diseases. We develop a spatio-temporal stochastic model for influenza-like disease spread based on estimates of human mobility. The model is informed by mobile phone mobility data collected in Bangladesh. We compare predictions of models informed by daily mobility data (reference) with that of models informed by time-averaged mobility data, and mobility model approximations. We find that the gravity model overestimates the spatial synchrony, while the radiation model underestimates the spatial synchrony. Using time-averaged mobility resulted in spatial spreading patterns comparable to the daily mobility model. We fit the model to 2014–2017 influenza data from sentinel hospitals in Bangladesh, using a sequential version of approximate Bayesian computation. We find a good agreement between our estimated model and the case data. We estimate transmissibility and regional spread of influenza in Bangladesh, which are useful for policy planning. Time-averaged mobility appears to be a good proxy for human mobility when modelling infectious diseases. This motivates a more general use of the time-averaged mobility, with important implications for future studies and outbreak control. Moreover, time-averaged mobility is subject to less privacy concerns than daily mobility, containing less temporal information on individual movements.

Effectiveness of a Behavior Change Intervention with Hand Sanitizer Use and Respiratory Hygiene in Reducing Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza among Schoolchildren in Bangladesh: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

Schoolchildren are commonly linked to influenza transmission. Handwashing with soap has been shown to decrease infections; however, improving handwashing practices using soap and water is difficult in low-resource settings. In these settings, alternative hygiene options, such as hand sanitizer, could improve handwashing promotion to reduce influenza virus infections. We conducted a cluster randomized control trial in 24 primary schools in Dhaka to assess the effectiveness of hand sanitizer and a respiratory hygiene education intervention in reducing influenza-like illness (ILI) and laboratory-confirmed influenza during June-September 2015. Twelve schools were randomly selected to receive hand sanitizer and respiratory hygiene education, and 12 schools received no intervention. Field staff actively followed children daily to monitor for new ILI episodes (cough with fever) through school visits and by phone if a child was absent. When an illness episode was identified, medical technologists collected nasal swabs to test for influenza viruses. During the 10-week follow-up period, the incidence of ILI per 1,000 student-weeks was 22 in the intervention group versus 27 in the control group (P-value = 0.4). The incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza was 53% lower in the intervention schools (3/1,000 person-weeks) than in the control schools (6/1,000 person-weeks) (P-value = 0.01). Hand sanitizer and respiratory hygiene education can help to reduce the risk of influenza virus transmission in schools.

Hospital-based zoonotic disease surveillance in Bangladesh: design, field data and difficulties

Early detection of zoonotic diseases allows for the implementation of early response measures, reducing loss of human life and economic disruption. We implemented a surveillance system in hospitals in Bangladesh to screen acutely ill hospitalized patients with severe respiratory infection and meningoencephalitis for zoonotic exposures. Patients were screened for the risk of zoonotic exposures with five questions covering vocational exposures, sick domestic animal and wild animal contact, and date palm sap consumption in the three weeks preceding illness onset. Patients giving at least one positive response were considered a potential zoonotic exposure. From September 2013 to March 2017, a total of 11 429 hospitalized patients across 14 participating hospitals were screened for exposures. Overall, 2% of patients reported a potential zoonotic exposure in the three-week period prior to becoming ill. Sixteen per cent of hospitalized patients with reported exposures died. After routine surveillance diagnostic testing, 88% of patients admitted to the hospital after a potential zoonotic exposure did not have a laboratory diagnosed aetiology for their illness. Hospital-based surveillance systems such as the Bangladeshi example presented here could play an important future role in the early detection of zoonotic spillover diseases. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Acceptance and uptake of influenza vaccines in Asia: A systematic review

In Asia, the public health burden of influenza is significant despite the existence of efficacious influenza vaccines. Annual seasonal influenza vaccination can reduce the incidence of influenza significantly, yet influenza vaccination coverage remains low in this part of the world. As a densely populated region with varying climatic zones and a larger proportion of developing countries compared to the West, Asia is at increased risk of influenza. To provide a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the Asian region, the key objective of this systematic review is to examine the determinants of vaccination uptake in Asia, beyond that of existing studies that have largely been western-centric. We carried out a systematic review of peer-reviewed scientific research, examining the key determinants, acceptance and uptake of influenza vaccinations across Asia. A comprehensive search strategy was defined to capture studies that met the inclusion criteria of articles published in English, from 2008 to 2018, focusing on adult populations within Asia. A total of 83 relevant studies were appraised in this review. Analyses of the extant data confirmed that vaccination rates within Asia are low, and that most countries lack scientific research on vaccination behaviours. Studies were categorised into four different population groups: healthcare workers, high risk groups, general population and uniform groups. The motivators and deterrents for vaccine uptake varied according to population groups and characteristics. Both general populations and healthcare workers were concerned with vaccine safety and efficacy, and recommendations from health authorities were influential in vaccine uptake within the other populations. The findings suggest that further research is needed within a broader range of Asian countries to garner greater in-depth knowledge of vaccination behaviours in the region. In particular, influenza vaccination programs within Asia should focus on improving engagement more effectively, through greater relatability and transparency of data when educating the public.