Size-dependent survival of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in summer: effects of water temperature and stream flow

Using eDNA sampling for species-specific fish detection in tropical oceanic samples: limitations and recommendations for future use

Background

Over the past decade, environmental DNA (eDNA) has become a resourceful tool in conservation and biomonitoring. Environmental DNA has been applied in a variety of environments, but the application to studies of marine fish, particularly at tropical latitudes, are limited. Since many commercially important Caribbean fishes are overexploited, these species are optimal candidates to explore the use of this method as a biomonitoring tool. Specifically, for many of these species, the formation of fish spawning aggregations (FSAs) marks a critical life history event where fishes will gather in large numbers for reproduction. These FSAs are ephemeral in nature, lasting only a few days, but are predictable in time and space which makes them susceptible to overfishing.

Methods

In this study, we test the feasibility of using an eDNA sampling approach (water and sediment collection) to detect the presence of known FSAs off the west coast of Puerto Rico, with cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (CO1) and 12S rRNA (12S) primers designed to target specific species. A total of 290 eDNA samples were collected and, of those, 206 eDNA samples were processed. All eDNA samples varied in DNA concentration, both between replicates and collection methods. A total of 12 primer sets were developed and tested using traditional PCR and qPCR.

Results

Despite validation of primer accuracy and sample collection during known peak spawning times, the use of traditional PCR and qPCR with both molecular markers failed to produce species-specific amplification. Thus, a trial test was conducted using the CO1 primers in which target fish DNA was 'spiked' at various concentrations into the respective eDNA samples to determine the target species DNA concentration limit of detection. Upon successful amplification of the trial, results indicated that eDNA samples were below the detection threshold of our methods, suggesting that the number of fish present at the spawning aggregations was inadequate for single-species detection methods. In addition, elements such as the unavoidable presence of non-target DNA, oceanic environmental conditions, shedding rates of target fish, among other biotic and abiotic factors could have affected DNA persistence and degradation rates at the sites.

Conclusion

We provide recommendations for species-specific fish detection in lower latitudes, and suggestions for studies aiming to monitor or detect fish spawning aggregations using eDNA sampling.

Effects of climate on salmonid productivity: A global meta-analysis across freshwater ecosystems

Salmonids are of immense socio-economic importance in much of the world, but are threatened by climate change. This has generated a substantial literature documenting the effects of climate variation on salmonid productivity in freshwater ecosystems, but there has been no global quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to gain quantitative insight into key factors shaping the effects of climate on salmonid productivity, ultimately collecting 1321 correlations from 156 studies, representing 23 species across 24 countries. Fisher's Z was used as the standardized effect size, and a series of weighted mixed-effects models were compared to identify covariates that best explained variation in effects. Patterns in climate effects were complex and were driven by spatial (latitude, elevation), temporal (time-period, age-class), and biological (range, habitat type, anadromy) variation within and among study populations. These trends were often consistent with predictions based on salmonid thermal tolerances. Namely, warming and decreased precipitation tended to reduce productivity when high temperatures challenged upper thermal limits, while opposite patterns were common when cold temperatures limited productivity. Overall, variable climate impacts on salmonids suggest that future declines in some locations may be counterbalanced by gains in others. In particular, we suggest that future warming should (1) increase salmonid productivity at high latitudes and elevations (especially >60° and >1500 m), (2) reduce productivity in populations experiencing hotter and dryer growing season conditions, (3) favor non-native over native salmonids, and (4) impact lentic populations less negatively than lotic ones. These patterns should help conservation and management organizations identify populations most vulnerable to climate change, which can then be prioritized for protective measures. Our framework enables broad inferences about future productivity that can inform decision-making under climate change for salmonids and other taxa, but more widespread, standardized, and hypothesis-driven research is needed to expand current knowledge.

Environmental DNA as a tool for biodiversity monitoring in aquatic ecosystems – a review

The monitoring of changes in aquatic ecosystems due to anthropogenic activities is of utmost importance to ensure the health of aquatic biodiversity. Eutrophication in water bodies due to anthropogenic disturbances serves as one of the major sources of nutrient efflux and consequently changes the biological productivity and community structure of these ecosystems. Habitat destruction and overexploitation of natural resources are other sources that impact the equilibrium of aquatic systems. Environmental DNA (eDNA) is a tool that can help to assess and monitor aquatic biodiversity. There has been a considerable outpour of research in this area in the recent past, particularly concerning conservation and biodiversity management. This review focuses on the application of eDNA for the detection and relative quantification of threatened, endangered, invasive and elusive species. We give a special emphasis on how this technique developed in the past few years to become a tool for understanding the impact of spatial-temporal changes on ecosystems. Incorporating eDNA based biomonitoring with advances in sequencing technologies and computational abilities had an immense role in the development of different avenues of application of this tool.

Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and Brown Trout (Salmo trutta) summer thermal habitat use in streams with sympatric populations

This study addresses the need to examine the thermally mediated interactions of fish with their natural environment by investigating the shift in thermal habitat occupation for sympatric Brook and Brown Trout populations. We observed upstream Brook Trout and Brown Trout population shifts during the summer, with thermal habitats showing an increased number of Brown Trout, while some sites also displayed a decrease in the number of Brook Trout. Overall, there was an increased incidence of overlapping habitat occupation at the end of the summer. Brown Trout occupied optimal resting and feeding thermal habitat locations, which can potentially affect growth rates and Brook Trout's survival. Population shifts did not occur at elevated water temperatures as expected but seem driven by temperatures that are optimal for growth. Observed population shifts can lead to increased interactions between the two species throughout the summer. The results provide a better understanding of how future, longer-term, thermal habitat modifications may modify species interactions, which are critical for salmonid conservation efforts.

Cyclical and stochastic thermal variability affects survival and growth in brook trout

Directional changes in temperature have well-documented effects on ectotherms, yet few studies have explored how increased thermal variability (a concomitant of climate change) might affect individual fitness. Using a common-garden experimental protocol, we investigated how bidirectional temperature change can affect survival and growth of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and whether the survival and growth responses differ between two populations, using four thermal-variability treatments (mean: 10 °C; range: 7-13 °C): (i) constancy; (ii) cyclical fluctuations every two days; (iii) low stochasticity (random changes every 2 days); (iv) high stochasticity (random changes daily). Recently hatched individuals were monitored under thermal variability (6 weeks) and a subsequent one-month period of thermal constancy. We found that variability can positively influence survival, relative to thermal constancy, but negatively affect growth. The observations reported here can be interpreted within the context of Jensen's Inequality (performance at average conditions is unequal to average performance across a range of conditions). Projections of future population viability in the context of climate change would be strengthened by increased experimental attention to the fitness consequences of stochastic and non-stochastic thermal variability.

A geostatistical state-space model of animal densities for stream networks

Population dynamics are often correlated in space and time due to correlations in environmental drivers as well as synchrony induced by individual dispersal. Many statistical analyses of populations ignore potential autocorrelations and assume that survey methods (distance and time between samples) eliminate these correlations, allowing samples to be treated independently. If these assumptions are incorrect, results and therefore inference may be biased and uncertainty underestimated. We developed a novel statistical method to account for spatiotemporal correlations within dendritic stream networks, while accounting for imperfect detection in the surveys. Through simulations, we found this model decreased predictive error relative to standard statistical methods when data were spatially correlated based on stream distance and performed similarly when data were not correlated. We found that increasing the number of years surveyed substantially improved the model accuracy when estimating spatial and temporal correlation coefficients, especially from 10 to 15 yr. Increasing the number of survey sites within the network improved the performance of the nonspatial model but only marginally improved the density estimates in the spatiotemporal model. We applied this model to brook trout data from the West Susquehanna Watershed in Pennsylvania collected over 34 yr from 1981 to 2014. We found the model including temporal and spatiotemporal autocorrelation best described young of the year (YOY) and adult density patterns. YOY densities were positively related to forest cover and negatively related to spring temperatures with low temporal autocorrelation and moderately high spatiotemporal correlation. Adult densities were less strongly affected by climatic conditions and less temporally variable than YOY but with similar spatiotemporal correlation and higher temporal autocorrelation.

Behavioral type, in interaction with body size, affects the recapture rate of brown trout Salmo trutta juveniles in their nursery stream

Movement activity levels of wild animals often differ consistently among individuals, reflecting different behavioral types. Previous studies have shown that laboratory-scored activity can predict several ecologically relevant characteristics. In an experiment on wild brown trout Salmo trutta, spanning from June to October, we investigated how spring swimming activity, measured in a standardized laboratory test, related to relative recapture probability in autumn. Based on laboratory activity scores, individuals clustered into 2 groups, which showed contrasting patterns in the size-dependency of their recapture probability. Size had a slightly positive effect on recapture probability for passive fish but a clear negative effect on active fish. Our results show that the population structure in a cohort, in terms of relative proportions of behavioral types in different size classes, can vary over time. The results of this study could depend on either selective mortality or migration. However, selective disappearance of individuals with specific phenotypes, regardless of the mechanism, will have implications for trout population management, such as stocking efficiency of hatchery fish with high growth rates or maintenance of fishways past migration barriers.

Effects of Temperature and Spatial Scale on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Growth and Abundance

Diversity in habitat and life-history strategies promote a species' long-term persistence. However, life-history strategies are most commonly studied at broad spatial and temporal scales. We applied longevity growth models and closed N-mixture models to examine within- versus between stream variability in life-history characteristics of Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout in northern New Mexico streams. We developed a von Bertalanffy growth model and a closed N-mixture model in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to examine the importance of fine-scale variability in temperature and density-dependence on growth and abundance. The model indicated that accumulation of degree days likely positively influenced instantaneous growth rates and, to a lesser extent, negatively affected asymptotic body length. A nonlinear response of abundance to temperature was also observed, suggesting that Cutthroat Trout productivity along the temperature continuum was affected by physiological limitations (e.g., optimal growth temperatures). Parameter variability was greatest at the segment level for asymptotic size and abundance, but greatest at the stream level for the rate at which asymptotic size is reached. In total, the results suggest that fine-scale habitat heterogeneity (i.e., temperature) may play important roles in the continued persistence of Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout. Management actions should, therefore, consider the role of fine-scale processes for improving the likelihood of future population persistence.

Metabolic rates of embryos and alevin from a cold-adapted salmonid differ with temperature, population and family of origin: implications for coping with climate change

Early developmental stages of cold-adapted ectotherms such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) are at higher risk of mortality with increasing water temperatures. To determine the amount of variation present in early life, which may allow for potential adaptation to increasing temperature, we examined the routine metabolic rates (RMR) of wild-origin brook trout embryos and alevins reared at normal (5°C) and elevated (9°C) temperatures. The experiment was structured to examine variation in RMR within and among several levels of biological organization (family, population and ancestral type (native vs. mixed ancestry)). As expected, family and temperature variables were most important for predicting RMR and body mass, although population-level differences also existed when family was excluded for more detailed analysis. Additionally, body mass strongly influenced RMR at all life stages except for eyed embryos. When family identity was removed from the analysis, population became the most significant variable. Variation in RMR and mass within and among populations may indicate existing adaptive potential within and among brook trout populations to respond to predicted warming under climate change scenarios.

Bisphenol A in eggs causes development-specific liver molecular reprogramming in two generations of rainbow trout

Bisphenol A (BPA) is widely used in the manufacture of plastics and epoxy resins and is prevalent in the aquatic environment. BPA disrupts endocrine pathways in fish, but the long-term developmental implications are unknown. We demonstrate that BPA deposition in the eggs of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), an ecologically and economically important species of fish, reprograms liver metabolism in the offspring and alters the developmental growth trajectory in two generations. Specifically, BPA reduces growth during early development, followed by a catch-up growth post-juveniles. More importantly, we observed a developmental shift in the liver transcriptome, including an increased propensity for protein breakdown during early life stages to lipid and cholesterol synthesis post- juveniles. The liver molecular responses corresponded with the transient growth phenotypes observed in the F1 generation, and this was also evident in the F2 generation. Altogether, maternal and/or ancestral embryonic exposure to BPA affects liver metabolism leading to development-distinct effects on growth, underscoring the need for novel risk assessment strategies for this chemical in the aquatic environment. This is particularly applicable to migratory species, such as salmon, where distinct temporal changes in growth and physiology during development are critical for their spawning success.

Keeping things local: Subpopulation Nb and Ne in a stream network with partial barriers to fish migration

For organisms with overlapping generations that occur in metapopulations, uncertainty remains regarding the spatiotemporal scale of inference of estimates of the effective number of breeders (N^b) and whether these estimates can be used to predict generational N_e. We conducted a series of tests of the spatiotemporal scale of inference of estimates of N_b in nine consecutive cohorts within a long‐term study of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We also tested a recently developed approach to estimate generational N_e from N^b and compared this to an alternative approach for estimating N^e that also accounts for age structure. Multiple lines of evidence were consistent with N^b corresponding to the local (subpopulation) spatial scale and the cohort‐specific temporal scale. We found that at least four consecutive cohort‐specific estimates of N^b were necessary to obtain reliable estimates of harmonic mean N^b for a subpopulation. Generational N^e derived from cohort‐specific N^b was within 7%–50% of an alternative approach to obtain N^e, suggesting some population specificity for concordance between approaches. Our results regarding the spatiotemporal scale of inference for N_b should apply broadly to many taxa that exhibit overlapping generations and metapopulation structure and point to promising avenues for using cohort‐specific N^b for local‐scale genetic monitoring.

Limited variability in upper thermal tolerance among pure and hybrid populations of a cold-water fish

As climate warming threatens the persistence of many species and populations, it is important to forecast their responses to warming thermal regimes. Climate warming often traps populations in smaller habitat fragments, not only changing biotic parameters, but potentially decreasing adaptive potential by decreasing genetic variability. We examined the ability of six genetically distinct and different-sized populations of a cold-water fish (brook trout, Salvelinus fontinalis) to tolerate acute thermal warming and whether this tolerance could be altered by hybridizing populations. Critical thermal maximum (CT_max) assays were conducted on juveniles from each population to assess thermal tolerance, and the agitation temperature was recorded for assessing behavioural changes to elevated temperatures. An additional metric, which we have called the 'CT_max-agitation window' (CT_max minus agitation temperature), was also assessed. The CT_max differed between five out of 15 population pairs, although the maximal CT_max difference was only 0.68°C (29.11-29.79°C). Hybridization between one large population and two small populations yielded no obvious heterosis in mean CT_max, and no differences in agitation temperature or CT_max-agitation window were detected among pure populations or hybrids. Summer variation in temperature within each stream was negatively correlated with mean CT_max and mean CT_max-agitation window, although the maximal difference was small. Despite being one of the most phenotypically divergent and plastic north temperate freshwater fishes, our results suggest that limited variability exists in CT_max among populations of brook trout, regardless of their population size, standing genetic variation and differing natural thermal regimes (temperature variation, minimum and maximum). This study highlights the level to which thermal tolerance is conserved between isolated populations of a vertebrate species, in the face of climate warming.

Estimating fish abundance and biomass from eDNA concentrations: variability among capture methods and environmental conditions

Environmental DNA (eDNA) promises to ease noninvasive quantification of fish biomass or abundance, but its integration within conservation and fisheries management is currently limited by a lack of understanding of the influence of eDNA collection method and environmental conditions on eDNA concentrations in water samples. Water temperature is known to influence the metabolism of fish and consequently could strongly affect eDNA release rate. As water temperature varies in temperate regions (both seasonally and geographically), the unknown effect of water temperature on eDNA concentrations poses practical limitations on quantifying fish populations using eDNA from water samples. This study aimed to clarify how water temperature and the eDNA capture method alter the relationships between eDNA concentration and fish abundance/biomass. Water samples (1 L) were collected from 30 aquaria including triplicate of 0, 5, 10, 15 and 20 Brook Charr specimens at two different temperatures (7 °C and 14 °C). Water samples were filtered with five different types of filters. The eDNA concentration obtained by quantitative PCR (qPCR) varied significantly with fish abundance and biomass and types of filters (mixed-design ANOVA, P < 0.001). Results also show that fish released more eDNA in warm water than in cold water and that eDNA concentration better reflects fish abundance/biomass at high temperature. From a technical standpoint, higher levels of eDNA were captured with glass fibre (GF) filters than with mixed cellulose ester (MCE) filters and support the importance of adequate filters to quantify fish abundance based on the eDNA method. This study supports the importance of including water temperature in fish abundance/biomass prediction models based on eDNA.

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) vs. density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type, and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Beyond a Simple Effect: Variable and Changing Responses to Anthropogenic Noise

A growing number of experimental studies have demonstrated that exposure to anthropogenic noise can affect the behavior and physiology of a variety of aquatic organisms. However, work in other fields suggests that responses are likely to differ between species, individuals, and situations and across time. We suggest that issues such as interspecific and intrapopulation variation, context dependency, repeated exposure and prior experience, and recovery and compensation need to be considered if we are to gain a full understanding of the impacts of this global pollutant.

Seasonal weather patterns drive population vital rates and persistence in a stream fish

Climate change affects seasonal weather patterns, but little is known about the relative importance of seasonal weather patterns on animal population vital rates. Even when such information exists, data are typically only available from intensive fieldwork (e.g., mark-recapture studies) at a limited spatial extent. Here, we investigated effects of seasonal air temperature and precipitation (fall, winter, and spring) on survival and recruitment of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) at a broad spatial scale using a novel stage-structured population model. The data were a 15-year record of brook trout abundance from 72 sites distributed across a 170-km-long mountain range in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Population vital rates responded differently to weather and site-specific conditions. Specifically, young-of-year survival was most strongly affected by spring temperature, adult survival by elevation and per-capita recruitment by winter precipitation. Low fall precipitation and high winter precipitation, the latter of which is predicted to increase under climate change for the study region, had the strongest negative effects on trout populations. Simulations show that trout abundance could be greatly reduced under constant high winter precipitation, consistent with the expected effects of gravel-scouring flows on eggs and newly hatched individuals. However, high-elevation sites would be less vulnerable to local extinction because they supported higher adult survival. Furthermore, the majority of brook trout populations are projected to persist if high winter precipitation occurs only intermittently (≤3 of 5 years) due to density-dependent recruitment. Variable drivers of vital rates should be commonly found in animal populations characterized by ontogenetic changes in habitat, and such stage-structured effects may increase population persistence to changing climate by not affecting all life stages simultaneously. Yet, our results also demonstrate that weather patterns during seemingly less consequential seasons (e.g., winter precipitation) can have major impacts on animal population dynamics.

Neighbouring populations, opposite dynamics: influence of body size and environmental variation on the demography of stream-resident brown trout (Salmo trutta)

In organisms such as fish, where body size is considered an important state variable for the study of their population dynamics, size-specific growth and survival rates can be influenced by local variation in both biotic and abiotic factors, but few studies have evaluated the complex relationships between environmental variability and size-dependent processes. We analysed a 6-year capture-recapture dataset of brown trout (Salmo trutta) collected at 3 neighbouring but heterogeneous mountain streams in northern Spain with the aim of investigating the factors shaping the dynamics of local populations. The influence of body size and water temperature on survival and individual growth was assessed under a multi-state modelling framework, an extension of classical capture-recapture models that considers the state (i.e. body size) of the individual in each capture occasion and allows us to obtain state-specific demographic rates and link them to continuous environmental variables. Individual survival and growth patterns varied over space and time, and evidence of size-dependent survival was found in all but the smallest stream. At this stream, the probability of reaching larger sizes was lower compared to the other wider and deeper streams. Water temperature variables performed better in the modelling of the highest-altitude population, explaining over a 99 % of the variability in maturation transitions and survival of large fish. The relationships between body size, temperature and fitness components found in this study highlight the utility of multi-state approaches to investigate small-scale demographic processes in heterogeneous environments, and to provide reliable ecological knowledge for management purposes.

Low oxygen tolerance of different life stages of temperate freshwater fish species

Data on low dissolved oxygen (DO₂) tolerance of freshwater fish species of north-western Europe were used to create species sensitivity distributions (SSD). Lowest observed effect concentrations (LOEC) and 100% lethal concentrations (LC₁₀₀) data were collected from the scientific literature. Comparisons were made among life stages as well as between native and exotic species. In addition, lethal DO₂ concentrations were compared to oxygen concentrations corresponding to maximum tolerable water temperatures of the same species. Fish eggs and embryos were the least tolerant. Juveniles had a significantly lower mean LOEC than adults, but there was no difference in mean LC₁₀₀ between the two groups. The difference in lethal oxygen concentrations between adults and juveniles was largest for three salmonids, although it remains uncertain if this was a result of smoltification. There were no significant differences between native and exotic species; however, data on exotics are limited. DO₂ concentrations converted from maximum tolerable water temperatures were 3·9 times higher than the measured lethal DO₂ concentrations, which may reflect changes in respiration rates (Q₁₀) and may also relate to the simplicity of the model used.

Density-dependent compensatory growth in brown trout (Salmo trutta) in nature

Density-dependence is a major ecological mechanism that is known to limit individual growth. To examine if compensatory growth (unusually rapid growth following a period of imposed slow growth) in nature is density-dependent, one-year-old brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) were first starved in the laboratory, and then released back into their natural stream, either at natural or at experimentally increased population density. The experimental trout were captured three times over a one-year period. We found no differences in growth, within the first month after release (May-June), between the starved fish and the control group (i.e. no evidence of compensation). During the summer however (July-September), the starved fish grew more than the control group (i.e. compensation), and the starved fish released into the stream at a higher density, grew less than those released at a natural density, both in terms of weight and length (i.e. density-dependent compensation). Over the winter (October-April), there were no effects of either starvation or density on weight and length growth. After the winter, starved fish released at either density had caught up with control fish in body size, but recapture rates (proxy for survival) did not indicate any costs of compensation. Our results suggest that compensatory growth in nature can be density-dependent. Thus, this is the first study to demonstrate the presence of ecological restrictions on the compensatory growth response in free-ranging animals.

Size-dependent physiological responses of shore crabs to single and repeated playback of ship noise

Anthropogenic noise has fundamentally changed the acoustics of terrestrial and aquatic environments, and there is growing empirical evidence that even a single noise exposure can affect behaviour in a variety of vertebrate organisms. Here, we use controlled experiments to investigate how the physiology of a marine invertebrate, the shore crab (Carcinus maenas), is affected by both single and repeated exposure to ship-noise playback. Crabs experiencing ship-noise playback consumed more oxygen, indicating a higher metabolic rate and potentially greater stress, than those exposed to ambient-noise playback. The response to single ship-noise playback was size-dependent, with heavier crabs showing a stronger response than lighter individuals. Repeated exposure to ambient-noise playback led to increased oxygen consumption (probably due to handling stress), whereas repeated exposure to ship-noise playback produced no change in physiological response; explanations include the possibility that crabs exhibited a maximal response on first exposure to ship-noise playback, or that they habituated or become tolerant to it. These results highlight that invertebrates, like vertebrates, may also be susceptible to the detrimental impacts of anthropogenic noise and demonstrate the tractability for more detailed investigations into the effects of this pervasive global pollutant.

Putting the "ecology" into environmental flows: ecological dynamics and demographic modelling

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Maintenance of phenotypic variation: repeatability, heritability and size-dependent processes in a wild brook trout population

Phenotypic variation in body size can result from within-cohort variation in birth dates, among-individual growth variation and size-selective processes. We explore the relative effects of these processes on the maintenance of wide observed body size variation in stream-dwelling brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). Based on the analyses of multiple recaptures of individual fish, it appears that size distributions are largely determined by the maintenance of early size variation. We found no evidence for size-dependent compensatory growth (which would reduce size variation) and found no indication that size-dependent survival substantially influenced body size distributions. Depensatory growth (faster growth by larger individuals) reinforced early size variation, but was relatively strong only during the first sampling interval (age-0, fall). Maternal decisions on the timing and location of spawning could have a major influence on early, and as our results suggest, later (>age-0) size distributions. If this is the case, our estimates of heritability of body size (body length = 0.25) will be dominated by processes that generate and maintain early size differences. As a result, evolutionary responses to environmental change that are mediated by body size may be largely expressed via changes in the timing and location of reproduction.