Eco-evolutionary dynamics of communities and ecosystems

Geographic variation in evolutionary rescue under climate change in a crop pest-predator system

Species distribution models (SDMs) are often built upon the "niche conservatism" assumption, such that they ignore the possibility of "evolutionary rescue" and may underestimate species' future range limits under climate change. We select aphids and ladybirds as model species and develop an eco-evolutionary model to explore evolutionary rescue in a predator-prey system under climate change. We model the adaptive change of species' thermal performances, accounting for biotic interactions. Our study suggests that, without considering evolutionary adaptation, the warming climate will result in a reduction in aphid populations and the extinction of ladybirds in large parts of the United States. However, when incorporating evolutionary adaptation into the model, aphids can adapt to climate change, whereas ladybirds demonstrate geographic variation in their evolutionary rescue potential. Specifically, ladybirds in southern regions are more likely to be rescued than those in the north. In certain northern regions, ladybirds do not avoid extinction due to severe warming trends and seasonality of the climate. While higher warming trends do prompt stronger evolutionary changes in phenotype, they also lead to reduced aphid population abundance such that ecology constrains ladybird population growth. Higher seasonality induces an ecological effect by limiting the length of reproductive season, thereby reducing the capacity for evolutionary rescue. Together, these findings reveal the complex interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics in the context of evolutionary adaptation to climate change.

The adaptive value of density-dependent habitat specialization and social network centrality

Density dependence is a fundamental ecological process. In particular, animal habitat selection and social behavior often affect fitness in a density-dependent manner. The Ideal Free Distribution (IFD) and niche variation hypothesis (NVH) present distinct predictions associated with Optimal Foraging Theory about how the effect of habitat selection on fitness varies with population density. Using caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Canada as a model system, we test competing hypotheses about how habitat specialization, social behavior, and annual reproductive success (co)vary across a population density gradient. Within a behavioral reaction norm framework, we estimate repeatability, behavioral plasticity, and covariance among social behavior and habitat selection to investigate the adaptive value of sociality and habitat selection. In support of NVH, but not the IFD, we find that at high density habitat specialists had higher annual reproductive success than generalists, but were also less social than generalists, suggesting the possibility that specialists were less social to avoid competition. Our study supports niche variation as a mechanism for density-dependent habitat specialization.

Synthetic eco-evolutionary dynamics in simple molecular environment

The understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics, and in particular the mechanism of coexistence of species, is still fragmentary and in need of test bench model systems. To this aim we developed a variant of SELEX in vitro selection to study the evolution of a population of ∼1015 single-strand DNA oligonucleotide 'individuals'. We begin with a seed of random sequences which we select via affinity capture from ∼1012 DNA oligomers of fixed sequence ('resources') over which they compete. At each cycle ('generation'), the ecosystem is replenished via PCR amplification of survivors. Massive parallel sequencing indicates that across generations the variety of sequences ('species') drastically decreases, while some of them become populous and dominate the ecosystem. The simplicity of our approach, in which survival is granted by hybridization, enables a quantitative investigation of fitness through a statistical analysis of binding energies. We find that the strength of individual resource binding dominates the selection in the first generations, while inter- and intra-individual interactions become important in later stages, in parallel with the emergence of prototypical forms of mutualism and parasitism.

Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis

How did human societies evolve to become a major force of global change? What dynamics can lead societies on a trajectory of global sustainability? The astonishing growth in human population, economic activity and environmental impact has brought these questions to the fore. This theme issue pulls together a variety of traditions that seek to address these questions using different theories and methods. In this Introduction, we review and organize the major strands of work on how the Anthropocene evolved, how evolutionary dynamics are influencing sustainability efforts today, and what principles, strategies and capacities will be important to guide us towards global sustainability in the future. We present a set of synthetic insights and highlight frontiers for future research efforts which could contribute to a consolidated synthesis. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Lack of host specialization despite selective host use in brood parasitic cuckoo catfish

Host-parasite dynamics involve coevolutionary arms races, which may lead to host specialization and ensuing diversification. Our general understanding of the evolution of host specialization in brood parasites is compromised by a restricted focus on bird and insect lineages. The cuckoo catfish (Synodontis multipunctatus) is an obligate parasite of parental care of mouthbrooding cichlids in Lake Tanganyika. Given the ecological and taxonomic diversity of mouthbrooding cichlids in the lake, we hypothesized the existence of sympatric host-specific lineages in the cuckoo catfish. In a sample of 779 broods from 20 cichlid species, we found four species parasitized by cuckoo catfish (with prevalence of parasitism of 2%-18%). All parasitized cichlids were from the tribe Tropheini, maternal mouthbrooders that spawn over a substrate (rather than in open water). Phylogenetic analysis based on genomic (ddRAD sequencing) and mitochondrial (Dloop) data from cuckoo catfish embryos showed an absence of host-specific lineages. This was corroborated by analyses of genetic structure and co-ancestry matrix. Within host species, parasitism was not associated with any individual characteristic we recorded (parent size, water depth), but was costly as parasitized parents carried smaller clutches of their own offspring. We conclude that the cuckoo catfish is an intermediate generalist and discuss costs, benefits and constraints of host specialization in this species and brood parasites in general.

What Can Evolutionary History Tell Us about the Functioning of Ecological Communities? The ASN Presidential Debate

AbstractIn January 2018, Sharon Strauss, then president of the American Society of Naturalists, organized a debate on the following topic: does evolutionary history inform the current functioning of ecological communities? The debaters-Ives, Lau, Mayfield, and Tobias-presented pro and con arguments, caricatured in standard debating format. Numerous examples show that both recent microevolutionary and longer-term macroevolutionary history are important to the ecological functioning of communities. On the other hand, many other examples illustrate that the evolutionary history of communities or community members does not influence ecological function, or at least not very much. This article aims to provide a provocative discussion of the consistent and conflicting patterns that emerge in the study of contemporary and historical evolutionary influences on community function, as well as to identify questions for further study. It is intended as a thought-provoking exercise to explore this complex field, specifically addressing (1) key assumptions and how they can lead us astray and (2) issues that need additional study. The debaters all agree that evolutionary history can inform us about at least some aspects of community function. The underlying question at the root of the debate, however, is how the fields of ecology and evolution can most profitably collaborate to provide a deeper and broader understanding of ecological communities.

Opportunities to advance the synthesis of ecology and evolution

Despite decades of research on the interactions between ecology and evolution, opportunities still remain to further integrate the two disciplines, especially when considering multispecies systems. Here, we discuss two such opportunities. First, the traditional emphasis on the distinction between evolutionary and ecological processes should be further relaxed as it is particularly unhelpful in the study of microbial communities, where the very notion of species is hard to define. Second, key processes of evolutionary theory such as adaptation should be exported to hierarchical levels higher than populations to make sense of biodiversity dynamics. Together, we argue that broadening our perspective of eco-evolutionary dynamics to be more inclusive of all biodiversity, both phylogenetically and hierarchically, will open up fertile new research directions and help us to address one of the major scientific challenges of our time, that is, to understand and predict changes in biodiversity in the face of rapid environmental change.

Eco-evolution from deep time to contemporary dynamics: The role of timescales and rate modulators

Eco-evolutionary dynamics, or eco-evolution for short, are often thought to involve rapid demography (ecology) and equally rapid heritable phenotypic changes (evolution) leading to novel, emergent system behaviours. We argue that this focus on contemporary dynamics is too narrow: Eco-evolution should be extended, first, beyond pure demography to include all environmental dimensions and, second, to include slow eco-evolution which unfolds over thousands or millions of years. This extension allows us to conceptualise biological systems as occupying a two-dimensional time space along axes that capture the speed of ecology and evolution. Using Hutchinson's analogy: Time is the 'theatre' in which ecology and evolution are two interacting 'players'. Eco-evolutionary systems are therefore dynamic: We identify modulators of ecological and evolutionary rates, like temperature or sensitivity to mutation, which can change the speed of ecology and evolution, and hence impact eco-evolution. Environmental change may synchronise the speed of ecology and evolution via these rate modulators, increasing the occurrence of eco-evolution and emergent system behaviours. This represents substantial challenges for prediction, especially in the context of global change. Our perspective attempts to integrate ecology and evolution across disciplines, from gene-regulatory networks to geomorphology and across timescales, from today to deep time.

Beyond simple adaptation: Incorporating other evolutionary processes and concepts into eco-evolutionary dynamics

Studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics have integrated evolution with ecological processes at multiple scales (populations, communities and ecosystems) and with multiple interspecific interactions (antagonistic, mutualistic and competitive). However, evolution has often been conceptualised as a simple process: short-term directional adaptation that increases population growth. Here we argue that diverse other evolutionary processes, well studied in population genetics and evolutionary ecology, should also be considered to explore the full spectrum of feedback between ecological and evolutionary processes. Relevant but underappreciated processes include (1) drift and mutation, (2) disruptive selection causing lineage diversification or speciation reversal and (3) evolution driven by relative fitness differences that may decrease population growth. Because eco-evolutionary dynamics have often been studied by population and community ecologists, it will be important to incorporate a variety of concepts in population genetics and evolutionary ecology to better understand and predict eco-evolutionary dynamics in nature.

Statistical methods to identify mechanisms in studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics

While the reciprocal effects of ecological and evolutionary dynamics are increasingly recognized as an important driver for biodiversity, detection of such eco-evolutionary feedbacks, their underlying mechanisms, and their consequences remains challenging. Eco-evolutionary dynamics occur at different spatial and temporal scales and can leave signatures at different levels of organization (e.g., gene, protein, trait, community) that are often difficult to detect. Recent advances in statistical methods combined with alternative hypothesis testing provides a promising approach to identify potential eco-evolutionary drivers for observed data even in non-model systems that are not amenable to experimental manipulation. We discuss recent advances in eco-evolutionary modeling and statistical methods and discuss challenges for fitting mechanistic models to eco-evolutionary data.

Biological control needs evolutionary perspectives of ecological interactions

While ecological interactions have been identified as determinant for biological control efficiency, the role of evolution remains largely underestimated in biological control programs. With the restrictions on the use of both pesticides and exotic biological control agents (BCAs), the evolutionary optimization of local BCAs becomes central for improving the efficiency and the resilience of biological control. In particular, we need to better account for the natural processes of evolution to fully understand the interactions of pests and BCAs, including in biocontrol strategies integrating human manipulations of evolution (i.e., artificial selection and genetic engineering). In agroecosystems, the evolution of BCAs traits and performance depends on heritable phenotypic variation, trait genetic architecture, selection strength, stochastic processes, and other selective forces. Humans can manipulate these natural processes to increase the likelihood of evolutionary trait improvement, by artificially increasing heritable phenotypic variation, strengthening selection, controlling stochastic processes, or overpassing evolution through genetic engineering. We highlight these facets by reviewing recent studies addressing the importance of natural processes of evolution and human manipulations of these processes in biological control. We then discuss the interactions between the natural processes of evolution occurring in agroecosystems and affecting the artificially improved BCAs after their release. We emphasize that biological control cannot be summarized by interactions between species pairs because pests and biological control agents are entangled in diverse communities and are exposed to a multitude of deterministic and stochastic selective forces that can change rapidly in direction and intensity. We conclude that the combination of different evolutionary approaches can help optimize BCAs to remain efficient under changing environmental conditions and, ultimately, favor agroecosystem sustainability.

Impact of climate change on the elevational and latitudinal distributions of populations of Tipulidae (Diptera) in Wales, United Kingdom

As dominant features of most ecosystems, insects are responsive to changes in climate, both over short temporal scales (e.g. seasonal fluctuations in abundance) and over longer evolutionary scales (e.g. decade-scale changes in patterns of biodiversity). One such taxonomic group that is sensitive to changing climate are the craneflies (Diptera: Tipulidae). Here, we used aggregated biodiversity data to examine elevational and latitudinal distributions of adult Tipulidae between 1976 and 2019 in Wales, UK, and we related these distributions to climatic patterns. Our analyses showed that species with earlier-emerging adults were most affected by weather conditions in the year before observation. Specifically, as temperature increased, observed elevation increased in high-precipitation conditions, remained stable in average-precipitation conditions and decreased in low-precipitation conditions. For species with later-emerging adults, associations were seen between elevation and weather conditions in the year of observation. Observed latitude generally exhibited a negative association with maximum temperature in the year before observation, with observations of Tipulidae trending southwards during the 43-year study period. Our results support consideration of emergence phenology, weather and habitat data when predicting species distributional changes attributable to climate change, which is vital in understanding the selection pressures that species face in a changing environment.

Pesticide resistance in arthropods: Ecology matters too

Pesticide resistance development is an example of rapid contemporary evolution that poses immense challenges for agriculture. It typically evolves due to the strong directional selection that pesticide treatments exert on herbivorous arthropods. However, recent research suggests that some species are more prone to evolve pesticide resistance than others due to their evolutionary history and standing genetic variation. Generalist species might develop pesticide resistance especially rapidly due to pre‐adaptation to handle a wide array of plant allelochemicals. Moreover, research has shown that adaptation to novel host plants could lead to increased pesticide resistance. Exploring such cross‐resistance between host plant range evolution and pesticide resistance development from an ecological perspective is needed to understand its causes and consequences better. Much research has, however, been devoted to the molecular mechanisms underlying pesticide resistance while both the ecological contexts that could facilitate resistance evolution and the ecological consequences of cross‐resistance have been under‐studied. Here, we take an eco‐evolutionary approach and discuss circumstances that may facilitate cross‐resistance in arthropods and the consequences cross‐resistance may have for plant–arthropod interactions in both target and non‐target species and species interactions. Furthermore, we suggest future research avenues and practical implications of an increased ecological understanding of pesticide resistance evolution.

Eco-evolutionary feedbacks among pollinators, herbivores, and their plant resources

Eco-evolutionary feedbacks among multiple species occur when one species affects another species' evolution via its effects on the abundance and traits of a shared partner species. What happens if those two species enact opposing effects on their shared partner's population growth? Furthermore, what if those two kinds of interactions involve separate traits? For example, many plants produce distinct suites of traits that attract pollinators (mutualists) and deter herbivores (antagonists). Here, we develop a model to explore how pollinators and herbivores may influence each other's interactions with a shared plant species via evolutionary effects on the plant's nectar and toxin traits. The model results predict that herbivores indirectly select for the evolution of increased nectar production by suppressing plant population growth. The model also predicts that pollinators indirectly select for the evolution of increased toxin production by plants and increased counterdefenses by herbivores via their positive effects on plant population growth. Unless toxins directly affect pollinator foraging, plants always evolve increases in attraction and defense traits when they interact with both kinds of foragers. This work highlights the value of incorporating ecological dynamics to understand the entangled evolution of mutualisms and antagonisms in natural communities.

Phenological Coadaptation Can Stabilize Predator–Prey Dynamics

In recent years, phenology – the seasonal timing of biological life cycles – has received increasing attention as climate change threatens to shift phenology. Phenology is crucial to the life cycle of organisms and their interactions with intimate partner species; hence, phenology has important fitness consequences suggesting that phenology can change through adaptive processes caused by species interaction. However, to date, there is limited understanding of how phenological adaptation occurs among interacting species and consequently affects ecological population dynamics. In this study, a phenological predator–prey co-adaptation model was evaluated to determine how adaptive phenological changes occur in prey and predator and how phenological coadaptation affects their coexistence. Population fluctuations tend to decrease and become stabilized when adaptation occurs rapidly. Furthermore, when adaptation is slow, predator–prey dynamics can be stabilized or destabilized depending on the initial difference in phenological timing between species. These results suggest that phenology shaped by slow coevolution can shift with changes in activity timing caused by environmental changes and simultaneously alter the stability of predator–prey dynamics. In contrast, phenology caused by rapid adaptation, such as phenotypic plasticity, may be robust to environmental change and maintain the stability of predator–prey dynamics. Understanding the types of adaptative processes that shape species phenologies may be crucial for predicting the ecological effects of climate change.

Historical contingency and the role of post-invasion evolution in alternative community states

Historical contingency has long figured prominently in the conceptual frameworks of evolutionary biology and community ecology. Evolutionary biologists typically consider the effects of chance mutation and historical contingency in driving divergence and convergence of traits in populations, whereas ecologists instead are often interested in the role of historical contingency in community assembly and succession. Although genetic differences among individuals in populations can influence community interactions, variability among populations of the same species has received relatively little attention for its potential role in community assembly and succession. We used a community‐level study of experimental evolution in two compositionally different assemblages of protists and rotifers to explore whether initial differences in species abundances among communities attributed to differences in evolutionary history, persisted as species that continued to evolve over time. In each assemblage, we observed significant convergence between two invaded treatments initially differing in evolutionary history over an observation period equal to ~40–80 generations for most species. Nonetheless, community structure failed to converge completely across all invaded treatments within an assemblage to a single structure. This suggests that whereas the species in the assemblage represent a common selective regime, differences in populations reflecting their evolutionary history can produce long‐lasting transient alternative community states. In one assemblage, we also observed increasing within‐treatment variability among replicate communities over time, suggesting that ecological drift may be another factor contributing to community change. Although subtle, these transient alternative states, in which communities differed in the abundance of interacting species, could nonetheless have important functional consequences, suggesting that the role of evolution in driving these states deserves greater attention.

The evolutionary assembly of forest communities along environmental gradients: recent diversification or sorting of pre-adapted clades?

Recent studies have demonstrated that ecological processes that shape community structure and dynamics change along environmental gradients. However, much less is known about how the emergence of the gradients themselves shape the evolution of species that underlie community assembly. In this study, we address how the creation of novel environments leads to community assembly via two nonmutually exclusive processes: immigration and ecological sorting of pre-adapted clades (ISPC), and recent adaptive diversification (RAD). We study these processes in the context of the elevational gradient created by the uplift of the Central Andes. We develop a novel approach and method based on the decomposition of species turnover into within- and among-clade components, where clades correspond to lineages that originated before mountain uplift. Effects of ISPC and RAD can be inferred from how components of turnover change with elevation. We test our approach using data from over 500 Andean forest plots. We found that species turnover between communities at different elevations is dominated by the replacement of clades that originated before the uplift of the Central Andes. Our results suggest that immigration and sorting of clades pre-adapted to montane habitats is the primary mechanism shaping tree communities across elevations.

Rapid evolution of life-history traits in response to warming, predation and competition: A meta-analysis

Although studies quantifying evolutionary change in response to the selective pressures that organisms face in the wild have demonstrated that organisms can evolve rapidly, we lack a systematic assessment of the frequency, magnitude and direction of rapid evolutionary change across taxa. To address this gap, we conducted a meta-analysis of 58 studies that document the effects of warming, predation or competition on the evolution of body size, development rate or fecundity in natural or experimental animal populations. We tested whether there was a consistent effect of any selective agent on any trait, whether the direction of these effects align with theoretical predictions, and whether the three agents select in opposing directions on any trait. Overall, we found weak effects of all three selective agents on trait evolution: none of our nine traits by selective agent combinations had an overall effect that differed from zero, only 31% of studies had a significant within-study effect, and attributes of the included studies generally did not account for between-study variation in results. One notable exception was that predation targeting adults consistently resulted in the evolution of smaller prey body size. We discuss potential causes of these generally weak responses and consider how our results inform the ongoing development of eco-evolutionary research.

Complex eco-evolutionary dynamics induced by the coevolution of predator–prey movement strategies

The coevolution of predators and prey has been the subject of much empirical and theoretical research that produced intriguing insights into the interplay of ecology and evolution. To allow for mathematical analysis, models of predator–prey coevolution are often coarse-grained, focussing on population-level processes and largely neglecting individual-level behaviour. As selection is acting on individual-level properties, we here present a more mechanistic approach: an individual-based simulation model for the coevolution of predators and prey on a fine-grained resource landscape, where features relevant for ecology (like changes in local densities) and evolution (like differences in survival and reproduction) emerge naturally from interactions between individuals. Our focus is on predator–prey movement behaviour, and we present a new method for implementing evolving movement strategies in an efficient and intuitively appealing manner. Throughout their lifetime, predators and prey make repeated movement decisions on the basis of their movement strategies. Over the generations, the movement strategies evolve, as individuals that successfully survive and reproduce leave their strategy to more descendants. We show that the movement strategies in our model evolve rapidly, thereby inducing characteristic spatial patterns like spiral waves and static spots. Transitions between these patterns occur frequently, induced by antagonistic coevolution rather than by external events. Regularly, evolution leads to the emergence and stable coexistence of qualitatively different movement strategies within the same population. Although the strategy space of our model is continuous, we often observe the evolution of discrete movement types. We argue that rapid evolution, coexistent movement types, and phase shifts between different ecological regimes are not a peculiarity of our model but a result of more realistic assumptions on eco-evolutionary feedbacks and the number of evolutionary degrees of freedom.

Adaptive Evolution Can Both Prevent Ecosystem Collapse and Delay Ecosystem Recovery

AbstractThere is growing concern about the dire socioecological consequences of abrupt transitions between alternative ecosystem states in response to environmental changes. At the same time, environmental change can trigger evolutionary responses that could stabilize or destabilize ecosystem dynamics. However, we know little about how coupled ecological and evolutionary processes affect the risk of transition between alternative ecosystem states. Using shallow lakes as a model ecosystem, we investigate how trait evolution of a key species affects ecosystem resilience under environmental stress. We find that adaptive evolution of macrophytes can increase ecosystem resilience by shifting the critical threshold, which marks the transition from a clear-water state to a turbid-water state to a higher level of environmental stress. However, following the transition, adaptation to the turbid-water state can delay the ecosystem recovery back to the clear-water state. This implies that restoration could be more effective when implemented early enough after a transition occurs and before organisms adapt to the alternative state. Our findings provide new insights into how to prevent and mitigate the occurrence of regime shifts in ecosystems and highlight the need to understand ecosystem responses to environmental change in the context of coupled ecological and evolutionary processes.

Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics in Microbial Communities from Spontaneous Fermented Foods

Eco-evolutionary forces are the key drivers of ecosystem biodiversity dynamics. This resulted in a large body of theory, which has partially been experimentally tested by mimicking evolutionary processes in the laboratory. In the first part of this perspective, we outline what model systems are used for experimental testing of eco-evolutionary processes, ranging from simple microbial combinations and, more recently, to complex natural communities. Microbial communities of spontaneous fermented foods are a promising model system to study eco-evolutionary dynamics. They combine the complexity of a natural community with extensive knowledge about community members and the ease of manipulating the system in a laboratory setup. Due to rapidly developing sequencing techniques and meta-omics approaches incorporating data in building ecosystem models, the diversity in these communities can be analysed with relative ease while hypotheses developed in simple systems can be tested. Here, we highlight several eco-evolutionary questions that are addressed using microbial communities from fermented foods. These questions relate to analysing species frequencies in space and time, the diversity-stability relationship, niche space and community coalescence. We provide several hypotheses of the influence of these factors on community evolution specifying the experimental setup of studies where microbial communities of spontaneous fermented food are used.

Social transmission in the wild can reduce predation pressure on novel prey signals

Social transmission of information is taxonomically widespread and could have profound effects on the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of animal communities. Demonstrating this in the wild, however, has been challenging. Here we show by field experiment that social transmission among predators can shape how selection acts on prey defences. Using artificial prey and a novel approach in statistical analyses of social networks, we find that blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tit (Parus major) predators learn about prey defences by watching others. This shifts population preferences rapidly to match changes in prey profitability, and reduces predation pressure from naïve predators. Our results may help resolve how costly prey defences are maintained despite influxes of naïve juvenile predators, and suggest that accounting for social transmission is essential if we are to understand coevolutionary processes.

Adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity in changing environments: Implications for sexual species with different life history strategies

Populations adapt to novel environmental conditions by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity. Plastic responses are generally faster and can buffer fitness losses under variable conditions. Plasticity is typically modeled as random noise and linear reaction norms that assume simple one-to-one genotype-phenotype maps and no limits to the phenotypic response. Most studies on plasticity have focused on its effect on population viability. However, it is not clear, whether the advantage of plasticity depends solely on environmental fluctuations or also on the genetic and demographic properties (life histories) of populations. Here we present an individual-based model and study the relative importance of adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity for populations of sexual species with different life histories experiencing directional stochastic climate change. Environmental fluctuations were simulated using differentially autocorrelated climatic stochasticity or noise color, and scenarios of directional climate change. Nonadaptive plasticity was simulated as a random environmental effect on trait development, while adaptive plasticity as a linear, saturating, or sinusoidal reaction norm. The last two imposed limits to the plastic response and emphasized flexible interactions of the genotype with the environment. Interestingly, this assumption led to (a) smaller phenotypic than genotypic variance in the population (many-to-one genotype-phenotype map) and the coexistence of polymorphisms, and (b) the maintenance of higher genetic variation-compared to linear reaction norms and genetic determinism-even when the population was exposed to a constant environment for several generations. Limits to plasticity led to genetic accommodation, when costs were negligible, and to the appearance of cryptic variation when limits were exceeded. We found that adaptive plasticity promoted population persistence under red environmental noise and was particularly important for life histories with low fecundity. Populations producing more offspring could cope with environmental fluctuations solely by genetic changes or random plasticity, unless environmental change was too fast.

Evolutionary simulations clarify and reconcile biodiversity-disturbance models

There is significant geographic variation in species richness. However, the nature of the underlying relationships, such as that between species richness and environmental stability, remains unclear. The stability-time hypothesis suggests that environmental instability reduces species richness by suppressing speciation and increasing extinction risk. By contrast, the patch-mosaic hypothesis suggests that small-scale environmental instability can increase species richness by providing a steady supply of non-equilibrium environments. Although these hypotheses are often applied to different time scales, their core mechanisms are in conflict. Reconciling these apparently competing hypotheses is key to understanding how environmental conditions shape the distribution of biodiversity. Here, we use REvoSim, an individual-based, eco-evolutionary system, to model the evolution of sessile organisms in environments with varying magnitudes and scales of environmental instability. We demonstrate that when environments have substantial permanent heterogeneity, a high level of localized environmental instability reduces biodiversity, whereas in environments lacking permanent heterogeneity, high levels of localized instability increase biodiversity. By contrast, broad-scale environmental instability, acting on the same time scale, invariably reduces biodiversity. Our results provide a new view of the biodiversity–disturbance relationship that reconciles contrasting hypotheses within a single model and implies constraints on the environmental conditions under which those hypotheses apply. These constraints can inform attempts to conserve adaptive potential in different environments during the current biodiversity crisis.

Better Representation Is Needed in U.S. Endangered Species Act Implementation

In the United States, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service uses the concepts of resilience, redundancy, and representation—often known as the “3Rs”—to guide implementation of the Endangered Species Act, which requires the U.S. government to designate imperiled species as threatened or endangered, and take action to recover them. The Service has done little, however, to relate the 3Rs to the statutory requirements of the Act. Here we focus on interpreting the concept of representation given core tenets of science and conservation policy. We show that the Service's current interpretation, which focuses on a narrow set of characteristics intrinsic to species that facilitate future adaptation, falls far short of a reasonable interpretation from the scientific literature and other policy, and has significant consequences for the conservation of threatened and endangered species, including those found in other countries. To illustrate the shortcomings in practice, we discuss the cases of the Lower 48 gray wolf (Canis lupus) delisting, the proposed Red-cockadedWoodpecker (Picoides borealis) downlisting, and the possible downlisting of the Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis). We then propose an alternative interpretation of representation that accommodates the Service's narrow interpretation and broadens it to include the importance of intraspecific variation for its own sake as well as extrinsic characteristics such as a species' role in ecological communities. We argue that this interpretation better reflects the intent of the Endangered Species Act, the best available science, and policy needs for conserving imperiled wildlife, all of which recognize the importance not only of preventing global extinction but also of preventing ecological extinction and extirpation across significant portions of a species' range.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in the presence of policing

Ecology and evolution are inherently linked, and studying a mathematical model that considers both holds promise of insightful discoveries related to the dynamics of cooperation. In the present article, we use the prisoner's dilemma (PD) game as a basis for long-term apprehension of the essential social dilemma related to cooperation among unrelated individuals. We upgrade the contemporary PD game with an inclusion of evolution-induced act of punishment as a third competing strategy in addition to the traditional cooperators and defectors. In a population structure, the abundance of ecologically-viable free space often regulates the reproductive opportunities of the constituents. Hence, additionally, we consider the availability of free space as an ecological footprint, thus arriving at a simple eco-evolutionary model, which displays fascinating complex dynamics. As possible outcomes, we report the individual dominance of cooperators and defectors as well as a plethora of mixed states, where different strategies coexist followed by maintaining the diversity in a socio-ecological framework. These states can either be steady or oscillating, whereby oscillations are sustained by cyclic dominance among different combinations of cooperators, defectors, and punishers. We also observe a novel route to cyclic dominance where cooperators, punishers, and defectors enter a coexistence via an inverse Hopf bifurcation that is followed by an inverse period doubling route.

Mechanistic reconciliation of community and invasion ecology

Community and invasion ecology have mostly grown independently. There is substantial overlap in the processes captured by different models in the two fields, and various frameworks have been developed to reduce this redundancy and synthesize information content. Despite broad recognition that community and invasion ecology are interconnected, a process-based framework synthesizing models across these two fields is lacking. Here we review 65 representative community and invasion models and propose a common framework articulated around six processes (dispersal, drift, abiotic interactions, within-guild interactions, cross-guild interactions, and genetic changes). The framework is designed to synthesize the content of the two fields, provide a general perspective on their development, and enable their comparison. The application of this framework and of a novel method based on network theory reveals some lack of coherence between the two fields, despite some historical similarities. Community ecology models are characterized by combinations of multiple processes, likely reflecting the search for an overarching theory to explain community assembly and structure, drawing predominantly on interaction processes, but also accounting largely for the other processes. In contrast, most models in invasion ecology invoke fewer processes and focus more on interactions between introduced species and their novel biotic and abiotic environment. The historical dominance of interaction processes and their independent developments in the two fields is also reflected in the lower level of coherence for models involving interactions, compared to models involving dispersal, drift, and genetic changes. It appears that community ecology, with a longer history than invasion ecology, has transitioned from the search for single explanations for patterns observed in nature to investigate how processes may interact mechanistically, thereby generating and testing hypotheses. Our framework paves the way for a similar transition in invasion ecology, to better capture the dynamics of multiple alien species introduced in complex communities. Reciprocally, applying insights from invasion to community ecology will help us understand and predict the future of ecological communities in the Anthropocene, in which human activities are weakening species' natural boundaries. Ultimately, the successful integration of the two fields could advance a predictive ecology that is urgently required in a rapidly changing world.

Among-individual diet variation within a lake trout ecotype: Lack of stability of niche use

In a polyphenic species, differences in resource use are expected among ecotypes, and homogeneity in resource use is expected within an ecotype. Yet, using a broad resource spectrum has been identified as a strategy for fishes living in unproductive northern environments, where food is patchily distributed and ephemeral. We investigated whether specialization of trophic resources by individuals occurred within the generalist piscivore ecotype of lake trout from Great Bear Lake, Canada, reflective of a form of diversity. Four distinct dietary patterns of resource use within this lake trout ecotype were detected from fatty acid composition, with some variation linked to spatial patterns within Great Bear Lake. Feeding habits of different groups within the ecotype were not associated with detectable morphological or genetic differentiation, suggesting that behavioral plasticity caused the trophic differences. A low level of genetic differentiation was detected between exceptionally large-sized individuals and other piscivore individuals. We demonstrated that individual trophic specialization can occur within an ecotype inhabiting a geologically young system (8,000-10,000 yr BP), a lake that sustains high levels of phenotypic diversity of lake trout overall. The characterization of niche use among individuals, as done in this study, is necessary to understand the role that individual variation can play at the beginning of differentiation processes.

Evolutionary and Plastic Phenotypic Change Can Be Just as Fast as Changes in Population Densities

AbstractEvolution and plasticity can drive population-level phenotypic change (e.g., changes in the mean phenotype) on timescales comparable to changes in population densities. However, it is unclear whether phenotypic change has the potential to be just as fast as changes in densities or whether comparable rates of change occur only when densities are changing slow enough for phenotypes to keep pace. Moreover, it is unclear whether this depends on the mode of adaptation. Using scaling theory and fast-slow dynamical systems theory, we develop a method for comparing maximum rates of density and phenotypic change estimated from population-level time-series data. We apply our method to 30 published empirical studies where changes in morphological traits are caused by evolution, plasticity, or an unknown combination. For every study, the maximum rate of phenotypic change was between 0.5 and 2.5 times faster than the maximum rate of change in density. Moreover, there were no systematic differences between systems with different modes of adaptation. Our results show that plasticity and evolution can drive phenotypic change just as fast as changes in densities. We discuss the implications of our results in terms of the strengths of feedbacks between population densities and traits.

Socio-eco-evolutionary dynamics in cities

Cities are uniquely complex systems regulated by interactions and feedbacks between nature and human society. Characteristics of human society-including culture, economics, technology and politics-underlie social patterns and activity, creating a heterogeneous environment that can influence and be influenced by both ecological and evolutionary processes. Increasing research on urban ecology and evolutionary biology has coincided with growing interest in eco-evolutionary dynamics, which encompasses the interactions and reciprocal feedbacks between evolution and ecology. Research on both urban evolutionary biology and eco-evolutionary dynamics frequently focuses on contemporary evolution of species that have potentially substantial ecological-and even social-significance. Still, little work fully integrates urban evolutionary biology and eco-evolutionary dynamics, and rarely do researchers in either of these fields fully consider the role of human social patterns and processes. Because cities are fundamentally regulated by human activities, are inherently interconnected and are frequently undergoing social and economic transformation, they represent an opportunity for ecologists and evolutionary biologists to study urban "socio-eco-evolutionary dynamics." Through this new framework, we encourage researchers of urban ecology and evolution to fully integrate human social drivers and feedbacks to increase understanding and conservation of ecosystems, their functions and their contributions to people within and outside cities.

Reflections on the Predictability of Evolution: Toward a Conceptual Framework

Evolution is generally considered to be unpredictable because genetic variations are known to occur randomly. However, remarkable patterns of repeated convergent evolution are observed, for instance, loss of pigments by organisms living in caves. Analogous phenotypes appear in similar environments, sometimes in response to similar constraints. Alongside randomness, a certain evolutionary determinism also exists, for instance, the selection of particular phenotypes subjected to particular environmental constraints in the “evolutionary funnel.” We pursue the idea that eco-evolutionary specialization is in some way determinist. The conceptual framework of phenotypic changes entailing specialization presented in this essay explains how evolution can be predicted. We also discuss how the predictability of evolution could be tested using the case of metabolic specialization through gene losses. We also put forward that microorganisms could be key models to test and possibly make headway evolutionary predictions and knowledge about evolution.

Microgeographic divergence of functional responses among salamanders under antagonistic selection from apex predators

A predator's functional response determines predator-prey interactions by describing the relationship between the number of prey available and the number eaten. Its shape and parameters fundamentally govern the dynamic equilibrium of predator-prey interactions and their joint abundances. Yet, estimates of these key parameters generally assume stasis in space and time and ignore the potential for local adaptation to alter feeding responses and the stability of trophic dynamics. Here, we evaluate if functional responses diverge among populations of spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) larvae that face antagonistic selection on feeding strategies based on their own risk of predation. Common garden experiments revealed that spotted salamander from ponds with varying predation risks differed in their functional responses, suggesting an evolutionary response. Applying mechanistic equations, we discovered that the combined changes in attack rates, handling times and shape of the functional response enhanced feeding rate in environments with high densities of gape-limited predators. We suggest how these parameter changes could alter community equilibria and other emergent properties of food webs. Community ecologists might often need to consider how local evolution at fine scales alters key relationships in ways that alter local diversity patterns, food web dynamics, resource gradients and community responses to disturbance.

The problem of mediocre generalists: population genetics and eco-evolutionary perspectives on host breadth evolution in pathogens

Many of our theories for the generation and maintenance of diversity in nature depend on the existence of specialist biotic interactions which, in host-pathogen systems, also shape cross-species disease emergence. As such, niche breadth evolution, especially in host-parasite systems, remains a central focus in ecology and evolution. The predominant explanation for the existence of specialization in the literature is that niche breadth is constrained by trade-offs, such that a generalist is less fit on any particular environment than a given specialist. This trade-off theory has been used to predict niche breadth (co)evolution in both population genetics and eco-evolutionary models, with the different modelling methods providing separate, complementary insights. However, trade-offs may be far from universal, so population genetics theory has also proposed alternate mechanisms for costly generalism, including mutation accumulation. However, these mechanisms have yet to be integrated into eco-evolutionary models in order to understand how the mechanism of costly generalism alters the biological and ecological circumstances predicted to maintain specialism. In this review, we outline how population genetics and eco-evolutionary models based on trade-offs have provided insights for parasite niche breadth evolution and argue that the population genetics-derived mutation accumulation theory needs to be better integrated into eco-evolutionary theory.

The Complexity of Urban Eco-evolutionary Dynamics

Urbanization is changing Earth's ecosystems by altering the interactions and feedbacks between the fundamental ecological and evolutionary processes that maintain life. Humans in cities alter the eco-evolutionary play by simultaneously changing both the actors and the stage on which the eco-evolutionary play takes place. Urbanization modifies land surfaces, microclimates, habitat connectivity, ecological networks, food webs, species diversity, and species composition. These environmental changes can lead to changes in phenotypic, genetic, and cultural makeup of wild populations that have important consequences for ecosystem function and the essential services that nature provides to human society, such as nutrient cycling, pollination, seed dispersal, food production, and water and air purification. Understanding and monitoring urbanization-induced evolutionary changes is important to inform strategies to achieve sustainability. In the present article, we propose that understanding these dynamics requires rigorous characterization of urbanizing regions as rapidly evolving, tightly coupled human–natural systems. We explore how the emergent properties of urbanization affect eco-evolutionary dynamics across space and time. We identify five key urban drivers of change—habitat modification, connectivity, heterogeneity, novel disturbances, and biotic interactions—and highlight the direct consequences of urbanization-driven eco-evolutionary change for nature's contributions to people. Then, we explore five emerging complexities—landscape complexity, urban discontinuities, socio-ecological heterogeneity, cross-scale interactions, legacies and time lags—that need to be tackled in future research. We propose that the evolving metacommunity concept provides a powerful framework to study urban eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Does evolution design robust food webs?

Theoretical works that use a dynamical approach to study the ability of ecological communities to resist perturbations are largely based on randomly generated ecosystem structures. By contrast, we ask here whether the evolutionary history of food webs matters for their robustness. Using a community evolution model, we first generate trophic networks by varying the level of energy supply (richness) of the environment in which species adapt and diversify. After placing our simulation outputs in perspective with present-day food webs empirical data, we highlight the complex, structuring role of this environmental condition during the evolutionary setting up of trophic networks. We then assess the robustness of food webs by studying their short-term ecological responses to swift changes in their customary environmental richness. We reveal that the past conditions have a crucial effect on the robustness of current food webs. Moreover, directly focusing on connectance of evolved food webs, it turns out that the most connected ones appear to be the least robust to sharp depletion in the environmental energy supply. Finally, we appraise the 'adaptation' of food webs themselves: generally poor, except in relation to a diversity of flux property.

Metabolic rate, context-dependent selection, and the competition-colonization trade-off

Metabolism is linked with the pace‐of‐life, co‐varying with survival, growth, and reproduction. Metabolic rates should therefore be under strong selection and, if heritable, become less variable over time. Yet intraspecific variation in metabolic rates is ubiquitous, even after accounting for body mass and temperature. Theory predicts variable selection maintains trait variation, but field estimates of how selection on metabolism varies are rare. We use a model marine invertebrate to estimate selection on metabolic rates in the wild under different competitive environments. Fitness landscapes varied among environments separated by a few centimeters: interspecific competition selected for higher metabolism, and a faster pace‐of‐life, relative to competition‐free environments. Populations experience a mosaic of competitive regimes; we find metabolism mediates a competition‐colonization trade‐off across these regimes. Although high metabolic phenotypes possess greater competitive ability, in the absence of competitors, low metabolic phenotypes are better colonizers. Spatial heterogeneity and the variable selection on metabolic rates that it generates is likely to maintain variation in metabolic rate, despite strong selection in any single environment.

Dry and wet miombo woodlands of south-central Africa respond differently to climate change

It is important to understand how species distributions will shift under climate change. While much focus has been on species tracking temperature changes in the northern hemisphere, changing precipitation patterns in tropical regions have received less attention. The aim of the study was to estimate the current distribution of wet and dry miombo woodlands of sub-Saharan Africa and to predict their distributions under different climate change scenarios. A maximum entropy method (Maxent) was used to estimate the distributions and for projections. Occurrence records of dominant tree species in each woodland were used for modeling, together with altitude, soil characteristics, and climate variables as the environmental variables. Modeling was done under all four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and three general circulation models. Three dominant tree species were used in models of dry miombo while seven were used for wet miombo. Models estimated dry miombo to cover almost the entire known distribution of miombo woodlands while wet miombo were estimated to predominate in parts of Angola, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Future climate scenarios predict a drier climate in sub-Saharan Africa, and as a result, the range of dry miombo will expand. Dry miombo were predicted to expand by up to 17.3% in 2050 and 22.7% in 2070. In contrast, wet miombo were predicted to contract by up to - 28.6% in 2050 and - 41.6% in 2070. A warming climate is conducive for the proliferation of dry miombo tree species but unfavorable for wet miombo tree species.

Diversity and coexistence are influenced by time-dependent species interactions in a predator-prey system

Although numerous studies show that communities are jointly influenced by predation and competitive interactions, few have resolved how temporal variability in these interactions influences community assembly and stability. Here, we addressed this challenge in experimental microbial microcosms by employing empirical dynamic modelling tools to: (1) detect causal interactions between prey species in the absence and presence of a predator; (2) quantify the time-varying strength of these interactions and (3) explore stability in the resulting communities. Our findings show that predators boost the number of causal interactions among community members, and lead to reduced dynamic stability, but higher coexistence among prey species. These results correspond to time-varying changes in species interactions, including emergence of morphological characteristics that appeared to reduce predation, and indirectly facilitate growth of predator-susceptible species. Jointly, our findings suggest that careful consideration of both context and time may be necessary to predict and explain outcomes in multi-trophic systems.

Predator coexistence through emergent fitness equalization

The competitive exclusion principle is one of the oldest ideas in ecology and states that without additional self-limitation two predators cannot coexist on a single prey. The search for mechanisms allowing coexistence despite this has identified niche differentiation between predators as crucial: without this, coexistence requires the predators to have exactly the same R* values, which is considered impossible. However, this reasoning misses a critical point: predators' R* values are not static properties, but affected by defensive traits of their prey, which in turn can adapt in response to changes in predator densities. Here I show that this feedback between defense and predator dynamics enables stable predator coexistence without ecological niche differentiation. Instead, the mechanism driving coexistence is that prey adaptation causes defense to converge to the value where both predators have equal R* values ("fitness equalization"). This result is highly general, independent of specific model details, and applies to both rapid defense evolution and inducible defenses. It demonstrates the importance of considering long-standing ecological questions from an eco-evolutionary viewpoint, and showcases how the effects of adaptation can cascade through communities, driving diversity on higher trophic levels. These insights offer an important new perspective on coexistence theory.