Neonatal mortality of elk driven by climate, predator phenology and predator community composition

Climate change and deer in boreal and temperate regions: From physiology to population dynamics and species distributions

Climate change causes far-reaching disruption in nature, where tolerance thresholds already have been exceeded for some plants and animals. In the short term, deer may respond to climate through individual physiological and behavioral responses. Over time, individual responses can aggregate to the population level and ultimately lead to evolutionary adaptations. We systematically reviewed the literature (published 2000-2022) to summarize the effect of temperature, rainfall, snow, combined measures (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation), and extreme events, on deer species inhabiting boreal and temperate forests in terms of their physiology, spatial use, and population dynamics. We targeted deer species that inhabit relevant biomes in North America, Europe, and Asia: moose, roe deer, wapiti, red deer, sika deer, fallow deer, white-tailed deer, mule deer, caribou, and reindeer. Our review (218 papers) shows that many deer populations will likely benefit in part from warmer winters, but hotter and drier summers may exceed their physiological tolerances. We found support for deer expressing both morphological, physiological, and behavioral plasticity in response to climate variability. For example, some deer species can limit the effects of harsh weather conditions by modifying habitat use and daily activity patterns, while the physiological responses of female deer can lead to long-lasting effects on population dynamics. We identified 20 patterns, among which some illustrate antagonistic pathways, suggesting that detrimental effects will cancel out some of the benefits of climate change. Our findings highlight the influence of local variables (e.g., population density and predation) on how deer will respond to climatic conditions. We identified several knowledge gaps, such as studies regarding the potential impact on these animals of extreme weather events, snow type, and wetter autumns. The patterns we have identified in this literature review should help managers understand how populations of deer may be affected by regionally projected futures regarding temperature, rainfall, and snow.

White-tailed deer population dynamics in a multipredator landscape shaped by humans

Large terrestrial mammals increasingly rely on human-modified landscapes as anthropogenic footprints expand. Land management activities such as timber harvest, agriculture, and roads can influence prey population dynamics by altering forage resources and predation risk via changes in habitat, but these effects are not well understood in regions with diverse and changing predator guilds. In northeastern Washington state, USA, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are vulnerable to multiple carnivores, including recently returned gray wolves (Canis lupus), within a highly human-modified landscape. To understand the factors governing predator-prey dynamics in a human context, we radio-collared 280 white-tailed deer, 33 bobcats (Lynx rufus), 50 cougars (Puma concolor), 28 coyotes (C. latrans), and 14 wolves between 2016 and 2021. We first estimated deer vital rates and used a stage-structured matrix model to estimate their population growth rate. During the study, we observed a stable to declining deer population (lambda = 0.97, 95% confidence interval: 0.88, 1.05), with 74% of Monte Carlo simulations indicating population decrease and 26% of simulations indicating population increase. We then fit Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate how predator exposure, use of human-modified landscapes, and winter severity influenced deer survival and used these relationships to evaluate impacts on overall population growth. We found that the population growth rate was dually influenced by a negative direct effect of apex predators and a positive effect of timber harvest and agricultural areas. Cougars had a stronger effect on deer population dynamics than wolves, and mesopredators had little influence on the deer population growth rate. Areas of recent timber harvest had 55% more forage biomass than older forests, but horizontal visibility did not differ, suggesting that timber harvest did not influence predation risk. Although proximity to roads did not affect the overall population growth rate, vehicle collisions caused a substantial proportion of deer mortalities, and reducing these collisions could be a win-win for deer and humans. The influence of apex predators and forage indicates a dual limitation by top-down and bottom-up factors in this highly human-modified system, suggesting that a reduction in apex predators would intensify density-dependent regulation of the deer population owing to limited forage availability.

Was the massive increase in use of teratogenic agrichemicals in western states (USA) associated with declines in wild ruminant populations between 1994 and 2013?

Population declines were documented in multiple ruminant species in Montana and surrounding states starting in 1995. While weather, food sources, and predation certainly contributed, the declines were often attributed, at least partly, to unexplained factors. Use of teratogenic agrichemicals, notably neonicotinoid insecticides, fungicides, and glyphosate-based herbicides, massively increased regionally in 1994-96. The question explored in this review is whether this vastly increased use of these teratogenic pesticides might have contributed to observed population declines. We provide references and data documenting that specific developmental malformations on vertebrates can be associated with exposure to one or more of these agrichemicals. These pesticides are known to disrupt thyroid and other hormonal functions, mitochondrial functions, and biomineralization, all of which are particularly harmful to developing fetuses. Exposures can manifest as impaired embryonic development of craniofacial features, internal and reproductive organs, and musculoskeletal/integumental systems, often resulting in reproductive failure or weakened neonates. This paper reviews: a) studies of ruminant populations in the region, especially elk and white-tailed deer, prior to and after 1994; b) published and new data on underdeveloped facial bones in regional ruminants; c) published and new data on reproductive abnormalities in live and necropsied animals before and after 1994; and d) studies documenting the effects of exposures to three of the most applied teratogenic chemicals. While answers to the question posed above are complex and insufficient evidence is available for definitive answers, this review provides ideas for further consideration.

Behavioral trade-offs and multitasking by elk in relation to predation risk from Mexican gray wolves

Predator non-consumptive effects (NCE) can alter prey foraging time and habitat use, potentially reducing fitness. Prey can mitigate NCEs by increasing vigilance, chewing-vigilance synchronization, and spatiotemporal avoidance of predators. We quantified the relationship between Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi) predation risk and elk (Cervus canadensis) behavior. We conducted behavioral observations on adult female elk and developed predation risk indices using GPS collar data from Mexican wolves, locations of elk killed by wolves, and landscape covariates. We compared a priori models to determine the best predictors of adult female behavior and multitasking. Metrics that quantified both spatial and temporal predation risk were the most predictive. Vigilance was positively associated with increased predation risk. The effect of predation risk on foraging and resting differed across diurnal periods. During midday when wolf activity was lower, the probability of foraging increased while resting decreased in high-risk areas. During crepuscular periods when elk and wolves were most active, increased predation risk was associated with increased vigilance and slight decreases in foraging. Our results suggest elk are temporally avoiding predation risk from Mexican wolves by trading resting for foraging, a trade-off often not evaluated in behavioral studies. Probability of multitasking depended on canopy openness and an interaction between maternal period and predation risk; multitasking decreased prior to parturition and increased post parturition in high-risk areas. Openness was inversely related to multitasking. These results suggest adult female elk are altering the type of vigilance used depending on resource availability/quality, current energetic needs, and predation risk. Our results highlight potentially important, but often-excluded behaviors and trade-offs prey species may use to reduce the indirect effects of predation and contribute additional context to our understanding of predator-prey dynamics.

Cougars, wolves, and humans drive a dynamic landscape of fear for elk

To manage predation risk, prey navigate a dynamic landscape of fear, or spatiotemporal variation in risk perception, reflecting predator distributions, traits, and activity cycles. Prey may seek to reduce risk across this landscape using habitat at times and in places when predators are less active. In multipredator landscapes, avoiding one predator could increase vulnerability to another, making the landscape of fear difficult to predict and navigate. Additionally, humans may shape interactions between predators and prey, and induce new sources of risk. Humans can function as a shield, providing a refuge for prey from human-averse carnivores, and as a predator, causing mortality through hunting and vehicle collisions and eliciting a fear response that can exceed that of carnivores. We used telemetry data collected between 2017 and 2021 from 63 Global Positioning System-collared elk (Cervus canadensis), 42 cougars (Puma concolor), and 16 wolves (Canis lupus) to examine how elk habitat selection changed in relation to carnivores and humans in northeastern Washington, USA. Using step selection functions, we evaluated elk habitat use in relation to cougars, wolves, and humans, diel period (daytime vs. nighttime), season (summer calving season vs. fall hunting season), and habitat structure (open vs. closed habitat). The diel cycle was critical to understanding elk movement, allowing elk to reduce encounters with predators where and when they would be the largest threat. Elk strongly avoided cougars at night but had a near-neutral response to cougars during the day, whereas elk avoided wolves at all times of day. Elk generally used more open habitats where cougars and wolves were most active, rather than altering the use of habitat structure depending on the predator species. Elk avoided humans during the day and ~80% of adult female mortality was human caused, suggesting that humans functioned as a "super predator" in this system. Simultaneously, elk leveraged the human shield against wolves but not cougars at night, and no elk were confirmed to have been killed by wolves. Our results add to the mounting evidence that humans profoundly affect predator-prey interactions, highlighting the importance of studying these dynamics in anthropogenic areas.

Proximity-sensors on GPS collars reveal fine-scale predator-prey behavior during a predation event: A case study from Scandinavia

Although the advent of high-resolution GPS tracking technology has helped increase our understanding of individual and multispecies behavior in wildlife systems, detecting and recording direct interactions between free-ranging animals remains difficult. In 2023, we deployed GPS collars equipped with proximity sensors (GPS proximity collars) on brown bears (Ursus arctos) and moose (Alces alces) as part of a multispecies interaction study in central Sweden. On 6 June, 2023, a collar on an adult female moose and a collar on an adult male bear triggered each other's UHF signal and started collecting fine-scale GPS positioning data. The moose collar collected positions every 2 min for 89 min, and the bear collar collected positions every 1 min for 41 min. On 8 June, field personnel visited the site and found a female neonate moose carcass with clear indications of bear bite marks on the head and neck. During the predation event, the bear remained at the carcass while the moose moved back and forth, moving toward the carcass site about five times. The moose was observed via drone with two calves on 24 May and with only one remaining calf on 9 June. This case study describes, to the best of our knowledge, the first instance of a predation event between two free ranging, wild species recorded by GPS proximity collars. Both collars successfully triggered and switched to finer-scaled GPS fix rates when the individuals were in close proximity, producing detailed movement data for both predator and prey during and after a predation event. We suggest that, combined with standard field methodology, GPS proximity collars placed on free-ranging animals offer the ability for researchers to observe direct interactions between multiple individuals and species in the wild without the need for direct visual observation.

Birth date determines early calf survival in migratory caribou

The decline of most caribou (Rangifer tarandus) populations underlines the need to understand the determinants of key demographic parameters. In migratory caribou, we have limited information on rates and drivers of pre-weaning mortality. We fitted 60 pregnant females of the Rivière-aux-Feuilles caribou herd with GPS camera collars to track the survival of calves from birth to weaning in 2016-2018. Over the three years, calf survival rate before weaning, i.e. to 01-Sep, approximately three months of age, was 0.63 (CI 0.50-0.77). Summer mortality risk was mainly influenced by calf birth date, with calves born earlier in the calving season having a lower mortality risk than those born later. Mortality also increased when calves experienced low or high temperature during calving. This study provides the first estimates of pre-weaning survival of migratory caribou calves in this herd, illustrating the value of new technologies to collect data otherwise difficult to obtain in widely distributed migratory populations. This approach can easily be extended to other large herbivores and predators. Our study brings new insights on how climate change may affect summer juvenile survival given the increased temperatures and faster changes in plant phenology expected in the future.

Scavenging patterns of an inbred wolf population in a landscape with a pulse of human-provided carrion

Scavenging is an important part of food acquisition for many carnivore species that switch between scavenging and predation. In landscapes with anthropogenic impact, humans provide food that scavenging species can utilize. We quantified the magnitude of killing versus scavenging by gray wolves (Canis lupus) in Scandinavia where humans impact the ecosystem through hunter harvest, land use practices, and infrastructure. We investigated the cause of death of different animals utilized by wolves, and examined how the proportion of their consumption time spent scavenging was influenced by season, wolf social affiliation, level of inbreeding, density of moose (Alces alces) as their main prey, density of brown bear (Ursus arctos) as an intraguild competitor, and human density. We used data from 39 GPS-collared wolves covering 3198 study days (2001-2019), including 14,205 feeding locations within space-time clusters, and 1362 carcasses utilized by wolves. Most carcasses were wolf-killed (80.5%) while a small part had died from other natural causes (1.9%). The remaining had either anthropogenic mortality causes (4.7%), or the cause of death was unknown (12.9%). Time spent scavenging was higher during winter than during summer and autumn. Solitary wolves spent more time scavenging than pack-living individuals, likely because individual hunting success is lower than pack success. Scavenging time increased with the mean inbreeding coefficient of the adult wolves, possibly indicating that more inbred individuals resort to scavenging, which requires less body strength. There was weak evidence for competition between wolves and brown bears as well as a positive relationship between human density and time spent scavenging. This study shows how both intrinsic and extrinsic factors drive wolf scavenging behavior, and that despite a high level of inbreeding and access to carrion of anthropogenic origin, wolves mainly utilized their own kills.

Estimating Wolf Population Size and Dynamics by Field Monitoring and Demographic Models: Implications for Management and Conservation

We estimated the current size and dynamics of the wolf population in Tuscany and investigated the trends and demographic drivers of population changes. Estimates were obtained by two different approaches: (i) mixed-technique field monitoring (from 2014 to 2016) that found the minimum observed pack number and estimated population size, and (ii) an individual-based model (run by Vortex software v. 10.3.8.0) with demographic inputs derived from a local intensive study area and historic data on population size. Field monitoring showed a minimum population size of 558 wolves (SE = 12.005) in 2016, with a density of 2.74 individuals/100 km2. The population model described an increasing trend with an average annual rate of increase λ = 1.075 (SE = 0.014), an estimated population size of about 882 individuals (SE = 9.397) in 2016, and a density of 4.29 wolves/100 km2. Previously published estimates of wolf population were as low as 56.2% compared to our field monitoring estimation and 34.6% in comparison to our model estimation. We conducted sensitivity tests to analyze the key parameters driving population changes based on juvenile and adult mortality rates, female breeding success, and litter size. Mortality rates played a major role in determining intrinsic growth rate changes, with adult mortality accounting for 62.5% of the total variance explained by the four parameters. Juvenile mortality was responsible for 35.8% of the variance, while female breeding success and litter size had weak or negligible effects. We concluded that reliable estimates of population abundance and a deeper understanding of the role of different demographic parameters in determining population dynamics are crucial to define and carry out appropriate conservation and management strategies to address human-wildlife conflicts.

Changes in selection of resources with reproductive state in a montane ungulate

Animals select habitats based on food, water, space, and cover. Each of those components are essential to the ability of an individual to survive and reproduce in a particular habitat. Selection of resources is linked to reproductive fitness and individuals likely vary in how they select resources relative to their reproductive state: during pregnancy, while provisioning young when nutritional needs of the mother are high, but offspring are vulnerable to predation, or if they lose young to mortality. We investigated the effects of reproductive state on selection of resources by maternal female desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) by comparing selection during the last trimester of gestation, following parturition when females were provisioning dependent young, and if the female lost an offspring. We captured, and recaptured each year, 32 female bighorn sheep at Lone Mountain, Nevada, during 2016-2018. Captured females were fit with GPS collars and those that were pregnant received vaginal implant transmitters. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate differences in selection between females provisioning and not provisioning offspring, as well as the length of time it took for females with offspring to return levels of selection similar to that observed prior to parturition. Females that were not provisioning offspring selected areas with higher risk of predation, but greater nutritional resources than those that were provisioning dependent young. When females were provisioning young immediately following parturition, females selected areas that were safe from predators, but had lower nutritional resources. Females displayed varying rates of return to selection strategies associated with access to nutritional resources as young grew and became more agile and less dependent on mothers. We observed clear and substantial shifts in selection of resources associated with reproductive state, and females exhibited tradeoffs in favor of areas that were safer from predators when provisioning dependent young despite loss of nutritional resources to support lactation. As young grew and became less vulnerable to predators, females returned to levels of selection that provided access to nutritional resources to restore somatic reserves lost during lactation.

Sustainable elk harvests in Alberta with increasing predator populations

Large predators often are believed to cause declines in hunter harvests of ungulates due to direct competition for prey with hunters. In Alberta, predators of elk (Cervus elaphus), including grizzly bear (Ursus arctos), cougar (Puma concolor), and wolf (Canis lupus), have increased in recent years. We used trend analysis replicated by Wildlife Management Unit (WMU) to examine regional trends in elk harvest and hunter success. Over a 26-yr period, average harvest of elk increased by 5.46% per year for unrestricted bull and by 6.64% per year for limited-quota seasons. Also, over the same time frame, average hunter success increased by 0.2% per year for unrestricted bull and by 0.3% per year for limited-quota seasons, but no trend was detected in hunter effort (P>0.05). Our results show that increasing large-predator populations do not necessarily reduce hunter harvest of elk, and we only found evidence for this in Alberta's mountain WMUs where predation on elk calves has reduced recruitment. Furthermore, data indicate that Alberta's elk harvest management has been sustainable, i.e., hunting has continued while populations of elk have increased throughout most of the province. Wildlife agencies can justify commitments to long-term population monitoring because data allow adaptive management and can inform stakeholders on the status of populations.

A seasonal pulse of ungulate neonates influences space use by carnivores in a multi-predator, multi-prey system

The behavioral mechanisms by which predators encounter prey are poorly resolved. In particular, the extent to which predators engage in active search for prey versus incidentally encountering them has not been well studied in many systems and particularly not for neonate prey during the birth pulse. Parturition of many large herbivores occurs during a short and predictable temporal window in which young are highly vulnerable to predation. Our study aims to determine how a suite of carnivores responds to the seasonal pulse of newborn ungulates using contemporaneous global positioning system (GPS) locations of four species of predators and two species of prey. We used step-selection functions to assess whether coyotes, cougars, black bears, and bobcats encountered parturient adult female ungulates more often than expected by chance in a low-density population of mule deer and a high-density population of elk. We then assessed whether the carnivore species that encountered parturient prey more often than expected by chance did so by shifting their habitat use toward areas with a high probability of encountering neonates. None of the four carnivore species encountered GPS-collared parturient mule deer more often than expected by chance. By contrast, we determined that cougar and male bear movements positioned them in the proximity of GPS-collared parturient elk more often than expected by chance which may provide evidence of searching behavior. Although both male bears and cougars exhibited behavior consistent with active search for neonates, only male bears used elk parturition habitat in a way that dynamically tracked the phenology of the elk birth pulse suggesting that maximizing encounters with juvenile elk was a motivation when selecting resources. Our results suggest that there is high interspecific and intersexual variability in foraging strategies among large mammalian predators and their prey.

Maternal carryover, winter severity, and brown bear abundance relate to elk demographics

Ungulates are key components of ecosystems due to their effects on lower trophic levels, role as prey, and value for recreational and subsistence harvests. Understanding factors that drive ungulate population dynamics can inform protection of important habitat and successful management of populations. To ascertain correlates of ungulate population dynamics, we evaluated the effects of five non-exclusive hypotheses on ungulate abundance and recruitment: winter severity, spring nutritional limitation (spring bottleneck), summer-autumn maternal condition carryover, predation, and timber harvest. We used weather, reconstructed brown bear (Ursus arctos) abundance, and timber harvest data to estimate support for these hypotheses on early calf recruitment (calves per 100 adult females in July–August) and population counts of Roosevelt elk (Cervus canadensis roosevelti) on Afognak and Raspberry islands, Alaska, USA, 1958–2020. Increasing winter temperatures positively affected elk abundance, supporting the winter severity hypothesis, while a later first fall freeze had a positive effect on elk recruitment, supporting the maternal carry-over hypothesis. Increased brown bear abundance was negatively associated with elk recruitment, supporting the predation hypothesis. Recruitment was unaffected by spring climate conditions or timber harvest. Severe winter weather likely increased elk energy deficits, reducing elk survival and subsequent abundance in the following year. Colder and shorter falls likely reduced late-season forage, resulting in poor maternal condition which limited elk recruitment more than winter severity or late-winter nutritional bottlenecks. Our results additionally demonstrated potential negative effects of brown bears on elk recruitment. The apparent long-term decline in elk recruitment did not result in a decline of abundance, which suggests that less severe winters may increase elk survival and counteract the potential effects of predation on elk abundance.

Evaluating the summer landscapes of predation risk and forage quality for elk (Cervus canadensis)

The recovery of carnivore populations in North American has consequences for trophic interactions and population dynamics of prey. In addition to direct effects on prey populations through killing, predators can influence prey behavior by imposing the risk of predation. The mechanisms through which patterns of space use by predators are linked to behavioral response by prey and nonconsumptive effects on prey population dynamics are poorly understood. Our goal was to characterize population- and individual-level patterns of resource selection by elk (Cervus canadensis) in response to risk of wolves (Canis lupus) and mountain lions (Puma concolor) and evaluate potential nonconsumptive effects of these behavioral patterns. We tested the hypothesis that individual elk risk-avoidance behavior during summer would result in exposure to lower-quality forage and reduced body fat and pregnancy rates. First, we evaluated individuals' second-order and third-order resource selection with a used-available sampling design. At the population level, we found evidence for a positive relationship between second- and third-order selection and forage, and an interaction between forage quality and mountain lion risk such that the relative probability of use at low mountain lion risk increased with forage quality but decreased at high risk at both orders of selection. We found no evidence of a population-level trade-off between forage quality and wolf risk. However, we found substantial among-individual heterogeneity in resource selection patterns such that population-level patterns were potentially misleading. We found no evidence that the diversity of individual resource selection patterns varied predictably with available resources, or that patterns of individual risk-related resource selection translated into biologically meaningful changes in body fat or pregnancy rates. Our work highlights the importance of evaluating individual responses to predation risk and predator hunting technique when assessing responses to predators and suggests nonconsumptive effects are not operating at a population scale in this system.

White-tailed deer exploit temporal refuge from multi-predator and human risks on roads

Although most prey have multiple predator species, few studies have quantified how prey respond to the temporal niches of multiple predators which pose different levels of danger. For example, intraspecific variation in diel activity allows white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) to reduce fawn activity overlap with coyotes (Canis latrans) but finding safe times of day may be more difficult for fawns in a multi-predator context. We hypothesized that within a multi-predator system, deer would allocate antipredation behavior optimally based on combined mortality risk from multiple sources, which would vary depending on fawn presence. We measured cause-specific mortality of 777 adult (>1-year-old) and juvenile (1-4-month-old) deer and used 300 remote cameras to estimate the activity of deer, humans, and predators including American black bears (Ursus americanus), bobcats (Lynx rufus), coyotes, and wolves (Canis lupus). Predation and vehicle collisions accounted for 5.3 times greater mortality in juveniles (16% mortality from bears, coyotes, bobcats, wolves, and vehicles) compared with adults (3% mortality from coyotes, wolves, and vehicles). Deer nursery groups (i.e., ≥1 fawn present) were more diurnal than adult deer without fawns, causing fawns to have 24-38% less overlap with carnivores and 39% greater overlap with humans. Supporting our hypothesis, deer nursery groups appeared to optimize diel activity to minimize combined mortality risk. Temporal refuge for fawns was likely the result of carnivores avoiding humans, simplifying diel risk of five species into a trade-off between diurnal humans and nocturnal carnivores. Functional redundancy among multiple predators with shared behaviors may partially explain why white-tailed deer fawn predation rates are often similar among single- and multi-predator systems.

Influence of multiple predators decreases body condition and fecundity of European hares

We assessed the hypothesized negative correlation between the influence of multiple predators and body condition and fecundity of the European hare, from 13 areas in the Netherlands.Year-round abundance of predators was estimated by hunters. We quantified predator influence as the sum of their field metabolic rates, as this sum reflects the daily food requirements of multiple individuals. We determined the ratio between body mass and hindfoot length of hares as an index of body condition and the weight of their adrenal gland as a measure of chronic exposure to stress, and we counted the number of placental scars to estimate fecundity of hares.As hypothesized, we found that the sum of field metabolic rate of predators was negatively correlated with body condition and the number of placental scars, whereas it was positively related to the weight of the adrenal glands. In contrast to the sum of the field metabolic rate, the total number of predators did not or weakly affect the investigated risk responses.The sum of the field metabolic rate can be a useful proxy for the influence of multiple predators and takes into account predator abundance, type, body weight, and food requirements of multiple predators.With our findings, our paper contributes to a better understanding of the risk effects of multiple predators on prey fitness. Additionally, we identify a potential contributor to the decline of European hare populations.

Gray wolf (Canis lupus) predation patterns following recent recolonization in a multi-predator, multi-prey system

Predator–prey interactions are among the most fundamental of ecological relationships. Recolonizing gray wolf (Canis lupus Linnaeus, 1758) populations present new challenges for wildlife management in multi-prey, multi-carnivore systems. We documented diet composition and kill rates for wolves in a recently recolonized area over winter and summer seasons (2014–2015). Elk (Cervus canadensis Erxleben, 1777) were the primary ungulate prey (63%) located at wolf kill sites. Deer (mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817)) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780))) were less prevalent than elk in wolf diets, but the amount of deer in diets (40%–50%) varied by pack and season. Juvenile elk were the most prevalent class of prey in wolf diets during summer (63.3%) and winter (36.3%), with adult elk (32.5%) observed nearly as often as juveniles in winter. Kill rates varied by season, with rates 2.3 times higher in summer (mean = 3.5 ungulates/week per pack) than winter (mean = 1.5 ungulates/week per pack), consistent with increased availability and use of neonate prey. Prey biomass acquisition did not vary by pack or season (summer = 243 kg/week per pack; winter = 182 kg/week per pack). Our study quantified predation patterns for a recolonizing wolf population, and patterns that we documented were similar to other multi-prey systems in North America.

Capture method affects survival estimates and subsequent interpretation of ecological covariates for a long-lived cervid

Understanding what variables affect ungulate neonate survival is imperative to successful conservation and management of the species. Predation is commonly cited as a cause-specific source of mortality, and ecological covariates often influence neonate survival. However, variation in survival estimates related to capture methodology has been documented with opportunistically captured neonates generally displaying greater survival than those captured via aid of vaginal implant transmitters (VITs), likely because of increased left truncation observed in the opportunistically captured datasets. Our goal was to assess whether 3- and 6-month survival estimates varied by capture method while simultaneously assessing whether capture method affected model selection and interpretation of ecological covariates for white-tailed deer neonates captured from three study sites from 2014 to 2015 in North Dakota and South Dakota, USA. We found survival varied by capture method for 3-month neonate survival with opportunistically captured neonates displaying up to 26% greater survival than their counterparts captured via VITs; however, this relationship was not present for 6-month survival. We also found model selection and subsequent interpretation of ecological covariates varied when analyzing datasets comprised of neonates captured via VITs, neonates captured opportunistically, and all neonates combined regardless of capture method. When interpreting results from our VIT-only analysis for 3-month survival, we found survival varied by three time intervals and was lowest in the first two weeks of life. Capture method did not affect 6-month survival, which was most influenced by total precipitation occurring during 3 - 8 weeks of a neonate's life and percent canopy cover found at a neonate's capture site. Our results support previous research that capture method must be accounted for when deriving survival estimates for ungulate neonates as it can impact derived estimates and subsequent interpretation of results.

Influence of intrinsic and extrinsic attributes on neonate survival in an invasive large mammal

Understanding factors influencing survival of neonates for wild species is important for successful management, particularly for determining drivers of population dynamics. Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) are invasive and populations are rapidly increasing in part due to high reproductive capacity. Survival of adults is generally high, however, survival of piglets, and particularly neonates, is largely unknown. We located neonates at the natal nest and quantified survival in relation to individual and maternal biological attributes, and environmental variables. During 2017-2020, we captured 50 neonates from 13 litters and documented 28 mortalities (56%) over six weeks. Survival was positively influenced by pelage coloration, likely as a form of camouflage from predators. Male neonates had higher survival. They were born larger than females, which could be beneficial for thermoregulation and competition for milk. Neonates born to larger sows had lower survival. Sow size was positively correlated with litter size, and this finding may reflect the increased nutritional demands of sustaining large litters, or difficulties in defending more neonates against predators. Neonates born in warmer months had higher survival than those born in cooler months. Neonates are inefficient thermoregulators, thus being born in warmer months could be beneficial for maintaining homeostasis as well as access to more food resources. These are the largest and most complete data for neonate wild pig survival and will inform population models for the development of management strategies to reduce negative impacts of this destructive invasive species on native ecosystems.

Investigating the Dynamics of Elk Population Size and Body Mass in a Seasonal Environment Using a Mechanistic Integral Projection Model

Environmentally mediated changes in body size often underlie population responses to environmental change, yet this is not a universal phenomenon. Understanding when phenotypic change underlies population responses to environmental change is important for obtaining insights and robust predictions of population dynamics in a changing world. We develop a dynamic integral projection model that mechanistically links environmental conditions to demographic rates and phenotypic traits (body size) via changes in resource availability and individual energetics. We apply the model to the northern Yellowstone elk population and explore population responses to changing patterns of seasonality, incorporating the interdependence of growth, demography, and density-dependent processes operating through population feedback on available resources. We found that small changes in body size distributions can have large impacts on population dynamics but need not cause population responses to environmental change. Environmental changes that altered demographic rates directly, via increasing or decreasing resource availability, led to large population impacts in the absence of substantial changes to body size distributions. In contrast, environmentally driven shifts in body size distributions could occur with little consequence for population dynamics when the effect of environmental change on resource availability was small and seasonally restricted and when strong density-dependent processes counteracted expected population responses. These findings highlight that a robust understanding of how associations between body size and demography influence population responses to environmental change will require knowledge of the shape of the relationship between phenotypic distributions and vital rates, the population status with regard to its carrying capacity, and importantly the nature of the environmentally driven change in body size and carrying capacity.

Competition for safe real estate, not food, drives density-dependent juvenile survival in a large herbivore

Density-dependent competition for food reduces vital rates, with juvenile survival often the first to decline. A clear prediction of food-based, density-dependent competition for large herbivores is decreasing juvenile survival with increasing density. However, competition for enemy-free space could also be a significant mechanism for density dependence in territorial species. How juvenile survival is predicted to change across density depends critically on the nature of predator-prey dynamics and spatial overlap among predator and prey, especially in multiple-predator systems. Here, we used a management experiment that reduced densities of a generalist predator, coyotes, and specialist predator, mountain lions, over a 5-year period to test for spatial density dependence mediated by predation on juvenile mule deer in Idaho, USA. We tested the spatial density-dependence hypothesis by tracking the fate of 251 juvenile mule deer, estimating cause-specific mortality, and testing responses to changes in deer density and predator abundance. Overall juvenile mortality did not increase with deer density, but generalist coyote-caused mortality did, but not when coyote density was reduced experimentally. Mountain lion-caused mortality did not change with deer density in the reference area in contradiction of the food-based competition hypothesis, but declined in the treatment area, opposite to the pattern of coyotes. These observations clearly reject the food-based density-dependence hypothesis for juvenile mule deer. Instead, our results provide support for the spatial density-dependence hypothesis that competition for enemy-free space increases predation by generalist predators on juvenile large herbivores.

How climate impacts the composition of wolf-killed elk in northern Yellowstone National Park

While the functional response of predators is commonly measured, recent work has revealed that the age and sex composition of prey killed is often a better predictor of prey population dynamics because the reproductive value of adult females is usually higher than that of males or juveniles.

Climate is often an important mediating factor in determining the composition of predator kills, but we currently lack a mechanistic understanding of how the multiple facets of climate interact with prey abundance and demography to influence the composition of predator kills.

Over 20 winters, we monitored 17 wolf packs in Yellowstone National Park and recorded the sex, age and nutritional condition of kills of their dominant prey—elk—in both early and late winter periods when elk are in relatively good and relatively poor condition, respectively.

Nutritional condition (as indicated by per cent marrow fat) of wolf‐killed elk varied markedly with summer plant productivity, snow water equivalent (SWE) and winter period. Moreover, marrow was poorer for wolf‐killed bulls and especially for calves than it was for cows.

Wolf prey composition was influenced by a complex set of climatic and endogenous variables. In early winter, poor plant growth in either year t or t − 1, or relatively low elk abundance, increased the odds of wolves killing bulls relative to cows. Calves were most likely to get killed when elk abundance was high and when the forage productivity they experienced in utero was poor. In late winter, low SWE and a relatively large elk population increased the odds of wolves killing calves relative to cows, whereas low SWE and poor vegetation productivity 1 year prior together increased the likelihood of wolves killing a bull instead of a cow.

Since climate has a strong influence on whether wolves prey on cows (who, depending on their age, are the key reproductive components of the population) or lower reproductive value of calves and bulls, our results suggest that climate can drive wolf predation to be more or less additive from year to year.

An improved understanding of ungulate population dynamics using count data: Insights from western Montana

Understanding the dynamics of ungulate populations is critical given their ecological and economic importance. In particular, the ability to evaluate the evidence for potential drivers of variation in population trajectories is important for informed management. However, the use of age ratio data (e.g., juveniles:adult females) as an index of variation in population dynamics is hindered by a lack of statistical power and difficult interpretation. Here, we show that the use of a population model based on count, classification and harvest data can dramatically improve the understanding of ungulate population dynamics by: 1) providing estimates of vital rates (e.g., per capita recruitment and population growth) that are easier to interpret and more useful to managers than age ratios and 2) increasing the power to assess potential sources of variation in key vital rates. We used a time series of elk (Cervus canadensis) spring count and classification data (2004 to 2016) and fall harvest data from hunting districts in western Montana to construct a population model to estimate vital rates and assess evidence for an association between a series of environmental covariates and indices of predator abundance on per capita recruitment rates of elk calves. Our results suggest that per capita recruitment rates were negatively associated with cold and wet springs, and severe winters, and positively associated with summer precipitation. In contrast, an analysis of the raw age ratio data failed to detect these relationships. Our approach based on a population model provided estimates of the region-wide mean per capita recruitment rate (mean = 0.25, 90% CI = 0.21, 0.29), temporal variation in hunting-district-specific recruitment rates (minimum = 0.09; 90% CI = [0.07, 0.11], maximum = 0.43; 90% CI = [0.38, 0.48]), and annual population growth rates (minimum = 0.83; 90% CI = [0.78, 0.87], maximum = 1.20; 90% CI = [1.11, 1.29]). We recommend using routinely collected population count and classification data and a population modeling approach rather than interpreting estimated age ratios as a substantial improvement in understanding population dynamics.

Gone girl: Richardson's ground squirrel offspring and neighbours are resilient to female removal

Within matrilineal societies, the presence of mothers and female kin can greatly enhance survival and reproductive success owing to kin-biased alarm calling, cooperation in territory defence, protection from infanticidal conspecifics, joint care of young and enhanced access to resources. The removal of mothers by predators or disease is expected to increase the stress experienced by offspring via activation of their hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis, increasing circulating glucocorticoids and reducing offspring survival and reproductive success. Yet, few studies have removed mothers in the post-weaning period to examine the assumed physiological and fitness consequences associated with these mortality events. We examined how the loss of a mother affects juvenile Richardson's ground squirrels' (Urocitellus richardsonii) faecal glucocorticoid metabolites and their survival. Given that neighbours are often close kin, we further hypothesized that conspecific removal would similarly diminish the fitness of neighbouring individuals. Upon removing the mother, we detected no impact on offspring or neighbouring conspecific faecal glucocorticoid metabolites in the removal year, or on overwinter survival in the following year. Furthermore, no impact on neighbour reproductive success was detected. Given the high predation rates of ground squirrels in wild populations, resilience to a changing social environment would prove adaptive for both surviving kin and non-kin.

Habitat segregation between brown bears and gray wolves in a human-dominated landscape

Identifying how sympatric species belonging to the same guild coexist is a major question of community ecology and conservation. Habitat segregation between two species might help reduce the effects of interspecific competition and apex predators are of special interest in this context, because their interactions can have consequences for lower trophic levels. However, habitat segregation between sympatric large carnivores has seldom been studied. Based on monitoring of 53 brown bears (Ursus arctos) and seven sympatric adult gray wolves (Canis lupus) equipped with GPS collars in Sweden, we analyzed the degree of interspecific segregation in habitat selection within their home ranges in both late winter and spring, when their diets overlap the most. We used the K-select method, a multivariate approach that relies on the concept of ecological niche, and randomization methods to quantify habitat segregation between bears and wolves. Habitat segregation between bears and wolves was greater than expected by chance. Wolves tended to select for moose occurrence, young forests, and rugged terrain more than bears, which likely reflects the different requirements of an omnivore (bear) and an obligate carnivore (wolf). However, both species generally avoided human-related habitats during daytime. Disentangling the mechanisms that can drive interspecific interactions at different spatial scales is essential for understanding how sympatric large carnivores occur and coexist in human-dominated landscapes, and how coexistence may affect lower trophic levels. The individual variation in habitat selection detected in our study may be a relevant mechanism to overcome intraguild competition and facilitate coexistence.

Effect of predation on adult pronghorn Antilocapra americana (Antilocapridae) in New Mexico, Southwestern USA

The effect of predation on ungulate populations remains contentious, despite a lack of evidence showing impacts in arid Southwestern USA populations where low precipitation and frequent drought limit ungulate nutritional condition. These conditions can increase predisposition of prey to mortality, which is prerequisite for predation to be compensatory. Consequently, we tested the effect of predation on adult pronghorn Antilocapra americana (Ord 1815) in two populations in arid New Mexico by modeling transformed annual survival rates as a function of predation rates. For this conservative test, a slope=0 indicates complete compensation, whereas a slope=−1 indicates complete additivity. The corrected slope of mortality potentially attributable to predation was >−0.14, and this result was consistent among individual populations. Thus, predation was primarily compensatory. Primarily compensatory predation was related to the relatively low condition of pronghorn individuals, as predated individuals were all below the mean condition of the population, similar to results seen in previous tests of the compensatory versus additive predation hypothesis in the arid Southwest USA. Conditions that predispose individual ungulates to mortality are present more often than not in arid environments, and thus managers should not assume that predation is limiting, regardless of predation rates.

The control of risk hypothesis: reactive vs. proactive antipredator responses and stress-mediated vs. food-mediated costs of response

Inducible defences against predators evolve because they reduce the rate of direct predation, but this benefit is offset by the cost (if any) of defence. If antipredator responses carry costs, the effect of predators on their prey is partitioned into two components, direct killing and risk effects. There is considerable uncertainty about the strength of risk effects, the factors that affect their strength, and the mechanisms that underlie them. In some cases, antipredator responses are associated with a glucocorticoid stress response, and in other cases they are associated with trade-offs between food and safety, but there is no general theory to explain this variation. Here, I develop the control of risk (COR) hypothesis, predicting that proactive responses to predictable and controllable aspects of risk will generally have food-mediated costs, while reactive responses to unpredictable or uncontrollable aspects of predation risk will generally have stress-mediated costs. The hypothesis is grounded in laboratory studies of neuroendocrine stressors and field studies of food-safety trade-offs. Strong tests of the COR hypothesis will require more studies of responses to natural variation in predation risk and the physiological consequences of these responses, but its explanatory power can be illustrated with existing case studies.