The accuracy of human population maps for public health application

Partition refinement of WorldPop population spatial distribution data method: A case study of Zhuhai, China

Currently, the core idea of the refined method of population spatial distribution is to establish a correlation between the population and auxiliary data at the administrative-unit level and, then, refine it to the grid unit. However, this method ignores the advantages of public population spatial distribution data. Given these problems, this study proposed a partition strategy using the natural break method at the grid-unit level, which adopts the population density to constrain the land class weight and redistributes the population under the dual constraints of land class and area weights. Accordingly, we used the dasymetric method to refine the population distribution data. The study established a partition model for public population spatial distribution data and auxiliary data at the grid-unit level and, then, refined it to smaller grid units. This method effectively utilizes the public population spatial distribution data and solves the problem of the dataset being not sufficiently accurate to describe small-scale regions and low resolutions. Taking the public WorldPop population spatial distribution dataset as an example, the results indicate that the proposed method has higher accuracy than other public datasets and can also describe the actual spatial distribution characteristics of the population accurately and intuitively. Simultaneously, this provides a new concept for research on population spatial distribution refinement methods.

Application of machine learning models for risk estimation and risk prediction of classical swine fever in Assam, India

The present study is aimed to develop an early warning system of Classical swine fever (CSF) disease by applying machine learning models and to study the climate-disease relationship with respect to the spatial occurrence and outbreaks of the disease in the north-eastern state of Assam, India. The disease incidence data from the year 2005 to 2021 was used. The linear discriminant analysis (LDA) revealed that significant environmental and remote sensing risk factors like air temperature, enhanced vegetation index, land surface temperature, potential evaporation rate and wind speed were significantly contributing to CSF incidences in Assam. Furthermore, the climate-based disease modelling was applied to relevant ecological and environmental risk factors determined using LDA and risk maps were generated. The western and eastern regions of the state were predicted to be at high risk of CSF with presence of significant hotspots. For the districts that are significantly clustered, the Basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated after the predicted results were superimposed onto the risk maps. The R0 value ranged from 1.04 to 2.07, implying that the eastern and western regions of Assam are more susceptible to CSF. Machine learning models were implemented using R statistical software version 3.1.3. The random forest, classification tree analysis and gradient boosting machine were found to be the best-fitted models for the study group. The models' performance was measured using the Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, Cohen's Kappa, True Skill Statistics, Area Under ROC Curve, ACCURACY, ERROR RATE, F1 SCORE, and Logistic Loss. As a part of the suggested study, these models will help us to understand the disease transmission dynamics, risk factors and spatio-temporal pattern of spread and evaluate the efficacy of control measures to battle the economic losses caused by CSF outbreaks.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13337-023-00847-6.

High-resolution gridded population datasets for Latin America and the Caribbean using official statistics

"Leaving no one behind" is the fundamental objective of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Latin America and the Caribbean is marked by social inequalities, whilst its total population is projected to increase to almost 760 million by 2050. In this context, contemporary and spatially detailed datasets that accurately capture the distribution of residential population are critical to appropriately inform and support environmental, health, and developmental applications at subnational levels. Existing datasets are under-utilised by governments due to the non-alignment with their own statistics. Therefore, official statistics at the finest level of administrative units available have been implemented to construct an open-access repository of high-resolution gridded population datasets for 40 countries in Latin American and the Caribbean. These datasets are detailed here, alongside the 'top-down' approach and methods to generate and validate them. Population distribution datasets for each country were created at a resolution of 3 arc-seconds (approximately 100 m at the equator), and are all available from the WorldPop Data Repository.

Changes in mobility amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Sapporo City, Japan: An investigation through the relationship between spatiotemporal population density and urban facilities

By the end of 2021, the Omicron variant of coronavirus disease 2019 had become the dominant cause of a worldwide pandemic crisis. This demands a deeper analysis to support policy makers in creating interventions that not only protect people from the pandemic but also remedy its negative effects on the economy. Thus, this study investigated people's mobility changes through the relationship between spatiotemporal population density and urban facilities. Results showed that places related to daily services, restaurants, commercial areas, and offices experienced decreased visits, with the highest decline belonging to commercial facilities. Visits to health care and production facilities were stable on weekdays but increased on holidays. Educational institutions' visits decreased on weekdays but increased on holidays. People's visits to residential housing and open spaces increased, with the rise in residential housing visits being more substantial. The results also confirmed that policy interventions (e.g., declaration of emergency and upgrade of restriction level) have a great impact on people's mobility in the short term. The findings would seem to indicate that visit patterns at service and restaurant places decreased least during the pandemic. The analysis outcomes suggest that policy makers should pay more attention to risk perception enhancement as a long-term measure. Furthermore, the study clarified the population density of each facility type in a time series. Improving model performance would be promising for tracking and predicting the spread of future pandemics.

Fine-scale population spatialization data of China in 2018 based on real location-based big data

Accurate location-based big data has a high resolution and a direct interaction with human activities, allowing for fine-scale population spatial data to be realized. We take the average of Tencent user location big data as a measure of ambient population. The county-level statistical population data in 2018 was used as the assigned input data. The log linear spatially weighted regression model was used to establish the relationship between location data and statistical data to allocate the latter to a 0.01° grid, and the ambient population data of mainland China was obtained. Extracting street-level (lower than county-level) statistics for accuracy testing, we found that POP2018 has the best fit with the actual permanent population (R² = 0.91), and the error is the smallest (MSE_POP2018 = 22.48 <MSE_WorldPop = 37.24 <MSE_LandScan = 100.91). This research supplemented in the refined spatial distribution data of people between census years, as well as presenting the application technique of big data in ambient population estimation and zoning mapping.

Measurement(s)	population
Technology Type(s)	location-based big data
Factor Type(s)	spatial region
Sample Characteristic - Environment	spatial region
Sample Characteristic - Location	China

How accurate are WorldPop-Global-Unconstrained gridded population data at the cell-level?: A simulation analysis in urban Namibia

Disaggregated population counts are needed to calculate health, economic, and development indicators in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), especially in settings of rapid urbanisation. Censuses are often outdated and inaccurate in LMIC settings, and rarely disaggregated at fine geographic scale. Modelled gridded population datasets derived from census data have become widely used by development researchers and practitioners; however, accuracy in these datasets are evaluated at the spatial scale of model input data which is generally courser than the neighbourhood or cell-level scale of many applications. We simulate a realistic synthetic 2016 population in Khomas, Namibia, a majority urban region, and introduce several realistic levels of outdatedness (over 15 years) and inaccuracy in slum, non-slum, and rural areas. We aggregate the synthetic populations by census and administrative boundaries (to mimic census data), resulting in 32 gridded population datasets that are typical of LMIC settings using the WorldPop-Global-Unconstrained gridded population approach. We evaluate the cell-level accuracy of these gridded population datasets using the original synthetic population as a reference. In our simulation, we found large cell-level errors, particularly in slum cells. These were driven by the averaging of population densities in large areal units before model training. Age, accuracy, and aggregation of the input data also played a role in these errors. We suggest incorporating finer-scale training data into gridded population models generally, and WorldPop-Global-Unconstrained in particular (e.g., from routine household surveys or slum community population counts), and use of new building footprint datasets as a covariate to improve cell-level accuracy (as done in some new WorldPop-Global-Constrained datasets). It is important to measure accuracy of gridded population datasets at spatial scales more consistent with how the data are being applied, especially if they are to be used for monitoring key development indicators at neighbourhood scales within cities.

A Population Spatialization Model at the Building Scale Using Random Forest

Population spatialization reveals the distribution and quantity of the population in geographic space with gridded population maps. Fine-scale population spatialization is essential for urbanization and disaster prevention. Previous approaches have used remotely sensed imagery to disaggregate census data, but this approach has limitations. For example, large-scale population censuses cannot be conducted in underdeveloped countries or regions, and remote sensing data lack semantic information indicating the different human activities occurring in a precise geographic location. Geospatial big data and machine learning provide new fine-scale population distribution mapping methods. In this paper, 30 features are extracted using easily accessible multisource geographic data. Then, a building-scale population estimation model is trained by a random forest (RF) regression algorithm. The results show that 91% of the buildings in Lin’an District have absolute error values of less than six compared with the actual population data. In a comparison with a multiple linear (ML) regression model, the mean absolute errors of the RF and ML models are 2.52 and 3.21, respectively, the root mean squared errors are 8.2 and 9.8, and the R2 values are 0.44 and 0.18. The RF model performs better at building-scale population estimation using easily accessible multisource geographic data. Future work will improve the model accuracy in densely populated areas.

Exploring the Relationship between the Spatial Distribution of Different Age Populations and Points of Interest (POI) in China

Population spatialization data is crucial to conducting scientific studies of coupled human–environment systems. Although significant progress has been made in population spatialization, the spatialization of different age populations is still weak. POI data with rich information have great potential to simulate the spatial distribution of different age populations, but the relationship between spatial distributions of POI and different age populations is still unclear, and whether it can be used as an auxiliary variable for the different age population spatialization remains to be explored. Therefore, this study collected and sorted out the number of different age populations and POIs in 2846 county-level administrative units of the Chinese mainland in 2010, divided the research data by region and city size, and explored the relationship between the different age populations and POIs. We found that there is a complex relationship between POI and different age populations. Firstly, there are positive, moderate-to-strong linear correlations between POI and population indicators. Secondly, POI has a different explanatory power for different age populations, and it has a higher explanatory power for the young and middle-aged population than the child and old population. Thirdly, the explanatory power of POI to different age populations is positively correlated with the urban economic development level. Finally, a small number of a certain kinds of POIs can be used to effectively simulate the spatial distributions of different age populations, which can improve the efficiency of obtaining spatialization data of different age populations and greatly save on costs. The study can provide data support for the precise spatialization of different age populations and inspire the spatialization of the other population attributes by POI in the future.

Towards an Improved Large-Scale Gridded Population Dataset: A Pan-European Study on the Integration of 3D Settlement Data into Population Modelling

Large-scale gridded population datasets available at the global or continental scale have become an important source of information in applications related to sustainable development. In recent years, the emergence of new population models has leveraged the inclusion of more accurate and spatially detailed proxy layers describing the built-up environment (e.g., built-area and building footprint datasets), enhancing the quality, accuracy and spatial resolution of existing products. However, due to the consistent lack of vertical and functional information on the built-up environment, large-scale gridded population datasets that rely on existing built-up land proxies still report large errors of under- and overestimation, especially in areas with predominantly high-rise buildings or industrial/commercial areas, respectively. This research investigates, for the first time, the potential contributions of the new World Settlement Footprint—3D (WSF3D) dataset in the field of large-scale population modelling. First, we combined a Random Forest classifier with spatial metrics derived from the WSF3D to predict the industrial versus non-industrial use of settlement pixels at the Pan-European scale. We then examined the effects of including volume and settlement use information into frameworks of dasymetric population modelling. We found that the proposed classification method can predict industrial and non-industrial areas with overall accuracies and a kappa-coefficient of ~84% and 0.68, respectively. Additionally, we found that both, integrating volume and settlement use information considerably increased the accuracy of population estimates between 10% and 30% over commonly employed models (e.g., based on a binary settlement mask as input), mainly by eliminating systematic large overestimations in industrial/commercial areas. While the proposed method shows strong promise for overcoming some of the main limitations in large-scale population modelling, future research should focus on improving the quality of the WFS3D dataset and the classification method alike, to avoid the false detection of built-up settlements and to reduce misclassification errors of industrial and high-rise buildings.

Measuring the accuracy of gridded human population density surfaces: A case study in Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

Background

Geospatial datasets of population are becoming more common in models used for health policy. Publicly-available maps of human population make a consistent picture from inconsistent census data, and the techniques they use to impute data makes each population map unique. Each mapping model explains its methods, but it can be difficult to know which map is appropriate for which policy work. High quality census datasets, where available, are a unique opportunity to characterize maps by comparing them with truth.

Methods

We use census data from a bed-net mass-distribution campaign on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, conducted by the Bioko Island Malaria Elimination Program as a gold standard to evaluate LandScan (LS), WorldPop Constrained (WP-C) and WorldPop Unconstrained (WP-U), Gridded Population of the World (GPW), and the High-Resolution Settlement Layer (HRSL). Each layer is compared to the gold-standard using statistical measures to evaluate distribution, error, and bias. We investigated how map choice affects burden estimates from a malaria prevalence model.

Results

Specific population layers were able to match the gold-standard distribution at different population densities. LandScan was able to most accurately capture highly urban distribution, HRSL and WP-C matched best at all other lower population densities. GPW and WP-U performed poorly everywhere. Correctly capturing empty pixels is key, and smaller pixel sizes (100 m vs 1 km) improve this. Normalizing areas based on known district populations increased performance. The use of differing population layers in a malaria model showed a disparity in results around transition points between endemicity levels.

Discussion

The metrics in this paper, some of them novel in this context, characterize how these population maps differ from the gold standard census and from each other. We show that the metrics help understand the performance of a population map within a malaria model. The closest match to the census data would combine LandScan within urban areas and the HRSL for rural areas. Researchers should prefer particular maps if health calculations have a strong dependency on knowing where people are not, or if it is important to categorize variation in density within a city.

Underestimated or overestimated? Dynamic assessment of hourly PM2.5 exposure in the metropolitan area based on heatmap and micro-air monitoring stations

Spatio-temporal distributions of air pollution and population are two important factors influencing the patterns of mortality and diseases. Past studies have quantified the adverse effects of long-term exposure to air pollution. However, the dynamic changes of air pollution levels and population mobility within a day are rarely taken into consideration, especially in metropolitan areas. In this study, we use the high-resolution PM_2.5 data from the micro-air monitoring stations, and hourly population mobility simulated by the heatmap based on Location Based Service (LBS) big data to evaluate the hourly active PM_2.5 exposure in a typical Chinese metropolis. The dynamic "active population exposure" is compared spatiotemporally with the static "census population exposure" based on census data. The results show that over 12 h on both study periods, 45.83% of suburbs' population-weighted exposure (PWE) is underestimated, while 100% of rural PWE and more than 34.78% of downtown's PWE are overestimated, with the relative difference reaching from -11 μg/m³ to 7 μg/m³. More notably, the total PWE of the active population at morning peak hours on weekdays is worse than previously realized, about 12.41% of people are exposed to PM_2.5 over 60 μg/m³, about twice as much as that in census scenario. The commuters who live in the suburbs and work in downtown may suffer more from PM_2.5 exposure and uneven environmental resource distribution. This study proposes a new approach of calculating population exposure which can also be extended to quantify other environmental issues and related health burdens.

Gridded population mapping for Germany based on building density, height and type from Earth Observation data using census disaggregation and bottom-up estimates

Gridded population data is widely used to map fine scale population patterns and dynamics to understand associated human-environmental processes for global change research, disaster risk assessment and other domains. This study mapped gridded population across Germany using weighting layers from building density, building height (both from previous studies) and building type datasets, all created from freely available, temporally and globally consistent Copernicus Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data. We first produced and validated a nation-wide dataset of predominant residential and non-residential building types. We then examined the impact of different weighting layers from density, type and height on top-down dasymetric mapping quality across scales. We finally performed a nation-wide bottom-up population estimate based on the three datasets. We found that integrating building types into dasymetric mapping is helpful at fine scale, as population is not redistributed to non-residential areas. Building density improved the overall quality of population estimates at all scales compared to using a binary building layer. Most importantly, we found that the combined use of density and height, i.e. volume, considerably increased mapping quality in general and with regard to regional discrepancy by largely eliminating systematic underestimation in dense agglomerations and overestimation in rural areas. We also found that building density, type and volume, together with living floor area per capita, are suitable to produce accurate large-area bottom-up population estimates.

High-Resolution Gridded Population Datasets: Exploring the Capabilities of the World Settlement Footprint 2019 Imperviousness Layer for the African Continent

The field of human population mapping is constantly evolving, leveraging the increasing availability of high-resolution satellite imagery and the advancements in the field of machine learning. In recent years, the emergence of global built-area datasets that accurately describe the extent, location, and characteristics of human settlements has facilitated the production of new population grids, with improved quality, accuracy, and spatial resolution. In this research, we explore the capabilities of the novel World Settlement Footprint 2019 Imperviousness layer (WSF2019-Imp), as a single proxy in the production of a new high-resolution population distribution dataset for all of Africa—the WSF2019-Population dataset (WSF2019-Pop). Results of a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative assessment indicate that the WSF2019-Imp layer has the potential to overcome the complexities and limitations of top-down binary and multi-layer approaches of large-scale population mapping, by delivering a weighting framework which is spatially consistent and free of applicability restrictions. The increased thematic detail and spatial resolution (~10 m at the Equator) of the WSF2019-Imp layer improve the spatial distribution of populations at local scales, where fully built-up settlement pixels are clearly differentiated from settlement pixels that share a proportion of their area with green spaces, such as parks or gardens. Overall, eighty percent of the African countries reported estimation accuracies with percentage mean absolute errors between ~15% and ~32%, and 50% of the validation units in more than half of the countries reported relative errors below 20%. Here, the remaining lack of information on the vertical dimension and the functional characterisation of the built-up environment are still remaining limitations affecting the quality and accuracy of the final population datasets.

Gridded population survey sampling: a systematic scoping review of the field and strategic research agenda

INTRODUCTION

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), household survey data are a main source of information for planning, evaluation, and decision-making. Standard surveys are based on censuses, however, for many LMICs it has been more than 10 years since their last census and they face high urban growth rates. Over the last decade, survey designers have begun to use modelled gridded population estimates as sample frames. We summarize the state of the emerging field of gridded population survey sampling, focussing on LMICs.

METHODS

We performed a systematic scoping review in Scopus of specific gridded population datasets and "population" or "household" "survey" reports, and solicited additional published and unpublished sources from colleagues.

RESULTS

We identified 43 national and sub-national gridded population-based household surveys implemented across 29 LMICs. Gridded population surveys used automated and manual approaches to derive clusters from WorldPop and LandScan gridded population estimates. After sampling, some survey teams interviewed all households in each cluster or segment, and others sampled households from larger clusters. Tools to select gridded population survey clusters include the GridSample R package, Geo-sampling tool, and GridSample.org. In the field, gridded population surveys generally relied on geographically accurate maps based on satellite imagery or OpenStreetMap, and a tablet or GPS technology for navigation.

CONCLUSIONS

For gridded population survey sampling to be adopted more widely, several strategic questions need answering regarding cell-level accuracy and uncertainty of gridded population estimates, the methods used to group/split cells into sample frame units, design effects of new sample designs, and feasibility of tools and methods to implement surveys across diverse settings.

Assessment of SDG Indicator 11.3.1 and Urban Growth Trends of Major and Small Cities in South Africa

Geospatial technologies play an important role in understanding and monitoring of land cover and land use change which is critical in achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11 and related goals. In this study, we assessed SDG Indicator 11.3.1, Ratio of Land Consumption Rate to Population Growth Rate (LCRPGR) and other urban growth trends of four cities in South Africa using Landsat 5 TM and SPOT 2&5 satellite images and census data collected in 1996, 2001 and 2011. The 2011 built-up areas were mapped using South Africa’s SPOT 5 Global Human Settlements Layer (GHSL) system whereas the 1996 and 2001 built-up areas were extracted from Landsat 5 and SPOT 2 satellite imagery using a kNN object-based image analysis technique that uses textural and radiometric features. We used the built-up area layer to calculate the land consumption per capita and total urban change for each city, both of which have been identified as being important explanatory indicators for the ratio of LCRPGR. The assessment shows that the two major cities, Johannesburg and Tshwane, recorded a decline in the ratio of LCRPGR between the periods 1996–2001 and 2001–2011. In contrast, the LCRPGR ratios for secondary cities, Polokwane and Rustenburg increased during the same periods. The results further show that Tshwane recorded an increase in land consumption per capita between 1996 and 2001 followed by a decrease between 2001 and 2011. Over the same time, Johannesburg experienced a gradual decrease in land consumption per capita. On the other hand, Polokwane and Rustenburg recorded a unique growth trend, in which the overall increase in LCRPGR was accompanied by a decrease in land consumption per capita. In terms of land consumption, Tshwane experienced the highest urban growth rate between 1996 and 2001, whereas Johannesburg and Polokwane experienced the highest urban growth rates between 2001 and 2011. The information derived in this study shows the significance of Indicator 11.3.1 in understanding the urbanization trends in cities of different sizes in South Africa and creates a baseline for nationwide assessment of SDG 11.3.1.

An Optimal Population Modeling Approach Using Geographically Weighted Regression Based on High-Resolution Remote Sensing Data: A Case Study in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

Traditional choropleth maps, created on the basis of administrative units, often fail to accurately represent population distribution due to the high spatial heterogeneity and the temporal dynamics of the population within the units. Furthermore, updating the data of spatial population statistics is time-consuming and costly, which underlies the relative lack of high-resolution and high-quality population data for implementing or validating population modeling work, in particular in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Dasymetric modeling has become an important technique to produce high-resolution gridded population surfaces. In this study, carried out in Dhaka City, Bangladesh, dasymetric mapping was implemented with the assistance of a combination of an object-based image analysis method (for generating ancillary data) and Geographically Weighted Regression (for improving the accuracy of the dasymetric modeling on the basis of building use). Buildings were extracted from WorldView 2 imagery as ancillary data, and a building-based GWR model was selected as the final model to disaggregate population counts from administrative units onto 5 m raster cells. The overall accuracy of the image classification was 77.75%, but the root mean square error (RMSE) of the building-based GWR model for the population disaggregation was significantly less compared to the RMSE values of GWR based land use, Ordinary Least Square based land use and building modeling. Our model has potential to be adapted to other LMIC countries, where high-quality ground-truth population data are lacking. With increasingly available satellite data, the approach developed in this study can facilitate high-resolution population modeling in a complex urban setting, and hence improve the demographic, social, environmental and health research in LMICs.

Spatially Explicit Mapping of Historical Population Density with Random Forest Regression: A Case Study of Gansu Province, China, in 1820 and 2000

This study established a random forest regression model (RFRM) using terrain factors, climatic and river factors, distances to the capitals of provinces, prefectures (Fu, in Chinese Pinyin), and counties as independent variables to predict the population density. Then, using the RFRM, we explicitly reconstructed the spatial distribution of the population density of Gansu Province, China, in 1820 and 2000, at a resolution of 10 by 10 km. By comparing the explicit reconstruction with census data at the township level from 2000, we found that the RFRM-based approach mostly reproduced the spatial variability in the population density, with a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.82, a positive reduction of error (RE, 0.72) and a coefficient of efficiency (CE) of 0.65. The RFRM-based reconstructions show that the population of Gansu Province in 1820 was mostly distributed in the Lanzhou, Gongchang, Pingliang, Qinzhou, Qingyang, and Ningxia prefecture. The macro-spatial pattern of the population density in 2000 kept approximately similar with that in 1820. However, fine differences could be found. The 79.92% of the population growth of Gansu Province from 1820 to 2000 occurred in areas lower than 2500 m. As a result, the population weighting in the areas above 2500 m was ~9% in 1820 while it was greater than 14% in 2000. Moreover, in comparison to 1820, the population density intensified in Lanzhou, Xining, Yinchuan, Baiyin, Linxia, and Tianshui, while it weakened in Gongchang, Qingyang, Ganzhou, and Suzhou.

Modeling Population Density using a New Index Derived from Multi-Sensor Image Data

The detailed information about the spatial distribution of the population is crucial for analyzing economic growth, environmental change, and natural disaster damage. Using the nighttime light (NTL) imagery for population estimation has been a topic of interest in recent decades. However, the effectiveness of NTL data in population estimation has been impeded by some limitations such as the blooming effect and underestimation in rural regions. To overcome these limitations, we combine the NPP-VIIRS day/night band (DNB) data with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) data derived from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite, to create a new vegetation temperature light population index (VTLPI). A statistical model is developed to predict 250m grid-level population density based on the proposed VTLPI and the least square regression approach. After that, a case study is implemented using the data of Sichuan Province, China in 2015, and the results indicates that the VTLPI-estimated population density outperformed the results from other two methods based on nighttime light imagery or human settlement index, and the three publicized population products, LandScan, WorldPop, and GPW. When using the census data as reference, the mean relative error and median absolute relative error on a township level are 0.29 and 0.12, respectively, and the root-mean-square error is 212 persons/km2. The results show that our VTLPI-based model can achieve a better estimation of population density in rural areas and urban suburbs and characterize more spatial variations at 250m grid level both in both urban and rural areas. The resultant population density offers better population exposure data for assessing natural disaster risk and loss as well as other related applications.

New Perspectives for Mapping Global Population Distribution Using World Settlement Footprint Products

In the production of gridded population maps, remotely sensed, human settlement datasets rank among the most important geographical factors to estimate population densities and distributions at regional and global scales. Within this context, the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) has developed a new suite of global layers, which accurately describe the built-up environment and its characteristics at high spatial resolution: (i) the World Settlement Footprint 2015 layer (WSF-2015), a binary settlement mask; and (ii) the experimental World Settlement Footprint Density 2015 layer (WSF-2015-Density), representing the percentage of impervious surface. This research systematically compares the effectiveness of both layers for producing population distribution maps through a dasymetric mapping approach in nine low-, middle-, and highly urbanised countries. Results indicate that the WSF-2015-Density layer can produce population distribution maps with higher qualitative and quantitative accuracies in comparison to the already established binary approach, especially in those countries where a good percentage of building structures have been identified within the rural areas. Moreover, our results suggest that population distribution accuracies could substantially improve through the dynamic preselection of the input layers and the correct parameterisation of the Settlement Size Complexity (SSC) index.

Improving the Accuracy of Fine-Grained Population Mapping Using Population-Sensitive POIs

Many methods have been used to generate gridded population maps by downscaling demographic data. As one of these methods, the accuracy of the dasymetric model depends heavily on the covariates. Point-of-interest (POI) data, as important covariates, have been widely used for population estimation. However, POIs are often used indiscriminately in existing studies. A few studies further used selected categories of POIs identified based only on the nonspatial quantitative relationship between the POIs and population. In this paper, the spatial association between the POIs and population distribution was considered to identify the POIs with a strong spatial correlation with the population distribution, i.e., population-sensitive POIs. The ability of population-sensitive POIs to improve the fine-grained population mapping accuracy was explored by comparing the results of random forest dasymetric models driven by population-sensitive POIs, all POIs, and no POIs, along with the same sets of multisource remote sensing and social sensing data. The results showed that the model driven by population-sensitive POI had the highest accuracy. Population-sensitive POIs were also more effective in improving the population mapping accuracy than were POIs selected based only on their quantitative relationship with the population. The model built using population-sensitive POIs also performed better than the two popular gridded population datasets WorldPop and LandScan. The model we proposed in this study can be used to generate accurate spatial population distribution information and contributes to achieving more reliable analyses of population-related social problems.

How accurate are modelled birth and pregnancy estimates? Comparison of four models using high resolution maternal health census data in southern Mozambique

Background

Existence of inequalities in quality and access to healthcare services at subnational levels has been identified despite a decline in maternal and perinatal mortality rates at national levels, leading to the need to investigate such conditions using geographical analysis. The need to assess the accuracy of global demographic distribution datasets at all subnational levels arises from the current emphasis on subnational monitoring of maternal and perinatal health progress, by the new targets stated in the Sustainable Development Goals.

Methods

The analysis involved comparison of four models generated using Worldpop methods, incorporating region-specific input data, as measured through the Community Level Intervention for Pre-eclampsia (CLIP) project. Normalised root mean square error was used to determine and compare the models’ prediction errors at different administrative unit levels.

Results

The models’ prediction errors are lower at higher administrative unit levels. All datasets showed the same pattern for both the live birth and pregnancy estimates. The effect of improving spatial resolution and accuracy of input data was more prominent at higher administrative unit levels.

Conclusion

The validation successfully highlighted the impact of spatial resolution and accuracy of maternal and perinatal health data in modelling estimates of pregnancies and live births. There is a need for more data collection techniques that conduct comprehensive censuses like the CLIP project. It is also imperative for such projects to take advantage of the power of mapping tools at their disposal to fill the gaps in the availability of datasets for populated areas.

Population allocation at the housing unit level: estimates around underground natural gas storage wells in PA, OH, NY, WV, MI, and CA

BACKGROUND

Spatially accurate population data are critical for determining health impacts from many known risk factors. However, the utility of the increasing spatial resolution of disease mapping and environmental exposures is limited by the lack of receptor population data at similar sub-census block spatial scales.

METHODS

Here we apply an innovative method (Population Allocation by Occupied Domicile Estimation - ABODE) to disaggregate U.S. Census populations by allocating an average person per household to geospatially-identified residential housing units (RHU). We considered two possible sources of RHU location data: address point locations and building footprint centroids. We compared the performance of ABODE with the common proportional population allocation (PPA) method for estimating the nighttime residential populations within 200 m radii and setback areas (100 - 300 ft) around active underground natural gas storage (UGS) wells (n = 9834) in six U.S. states.

RESULTS

Address location data generally outperformed building footprint data in predicting total counts of census residential housing units, with correlations ranging from 0.67 to 0.81 at the census block level. Using residentially-sited addresses only, ABODE estimated upwards of 20,000 physical households with between 48,126 and 53,250 people living within 200 m of active UGS wells - likely encompassing the size of a proposed UGS Wellhead Safety Zone. Across the 9834 active wells assessed, ABODE estimated between 5074 and 10,198 more people living in these areas compare to PPA, and the difference was significant at the individual well level (p = < 0.0001). By either population estimation method, OH exhibits a substantial degree of hyperlocal land use conflict between populations and UGS wells - more so than other states assessed. In some rare cases, population estimates differed by more than 100 people for the small 200 m² well-areas. ABODE's explicit accounting of physical households confirmed over 50% of PPA predictions as false positives indicated by non-zero predictions in areas absent physical RHUs.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to PPA - in allocating identical population data at sub-census block spatial scales -ABODE provides a more precise population at risk (PAR) estimate with higher confidence estimates of populations at greatest risk. 65% of UGS wells occupy residential urban and suburban areas indicating the unique land use conflicts presented by UGS systems that likely continue to experience population encroachment. Overall, ABODE confirms tens of thousands of homes and residents are likely located within the proposed UGS Wellhead Safety Zone - and in some cases within state's oil and gas well surface setback distances - of active UGS wells.

Reliability Analysis of LandScan Gridded Population Data. The Case Study of Poland

The issue of population dataset reliability is of particular importance when it comes to broadening the understanding of spatial structure, pattern and configuration of humans’ geographical location. The aim of the paper was to estimate the reliability of LandScan based on the official Polish Population Grid. The adopted methodology was based on the change detection approach, spatial pattern and continuity analysis, as well as statistical analysis at the grid-cell level. Our results show that the LandScan data can estimate the Polish population very well. The number of grid cells with equal people counts in both datasets amounts to 10.5%. The most and highly reliable data cover 72% of the country territory, while less reliable ones cover only 4.3%. The LandScan algorithm tends to underestimate people counts, with a total value of 79,735 people (0.21%). The highest underestimation was noticed in densely populated areas as well as in the transition areas between urban and rural, while overestimation was observed in moderately populated regions, along main roads and in city centres. The underestimation results mainly from the spatial pattern and size of Polish rural settlements, namely a big number of shadowed single households dispersed over agricultural areas and in the vicinity of forests. An excessive assessment of the number of people may be a consequence of the well-known blooming effect.

New estimates of flood exposure in developing countries using high-resolution population data

Current estimates of global flood exposure are made using datasets that distribute population counts homogenously across large lowland floodplain areas. When intersected with simulated water depths, this results in a significant mis-estimation. Here, we use new highly resolved population information to show that, in reality, humans make more rational decisions about flood risk than current demographic data suggest. In the new data, populations are correctly represented as risk-averse, largely avoiding obvious flood zones. The results also show that existing demographic datasets struggle to represent concentrations of exposure, with the total exposed population being spread over larger areas. In this analysis we use flood hazard data from a ~90 m resolution hydrodynamic inundation model to demonstrate the impact of different population distributions on flood exposure calculations for 18 developing countries spread across Africa, Asia and Latin America. The results suggest that many published large-scale flood exposure estimates may require significant revision.

Improved population mapping for China using remotely sensed and points-of-interest data within a random forests model

Remote sensing image products (e.g. brightness of nighttime lights and land cover/land use types) have been widely used to disaggregate census data to produce gridded population maps for large geographic areas. The advent of the geospatial big data revolution has created additional opportunities to map population distributions at fine resolutions with high accuracy. A considerable proportion of the geospatial data contains semantic information that indicates different categories of human activities occurring at exact geographic locations. Such information is often lacking in remote sensing data. In addition, the remarkable progress in machine learning provides toolkits for demographers to model complex nonlinear correlations between population and heterogeneous geographic covariates. In this study, a typical type of geospatial big data, points-of-interest (POIs), was combined with multi-source remote sensing data in a random forests model to disaggregate the 2010 county-level census population data to 100 × 100 m grids. Compared with the WorldPop population dataset, our population map showed higher accuracy. The root mean square error for population estimates in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chongqing for this method and WorldPop were 27,829 and 34,193, respectively. The large under-allocation of the population in urban areas and over-allocation in rural areas in the WorldPop dataset was greatly reduced in this new population map. Apart from revealing the effectiveness of POIs in improving population mapping, this study promises the potential of geospatial big data for mapping other socioeconomic parameters in the future.

Population Mapping with Multisensor Remote Sensing Images and Point-Of-Interest Data

Fine-resolution population distribution mapping is necessary for many purposes, which cannot be met by aggregated census data due to privacy. Many approaches utilize ancillary data that are related to population density, such as nighttime light imagery and land use, to redistribute the population from census to finer-scale units. However, most of the ancillary data used in the previous studies of population modeling are environmental data, which can only provide a limited capacity to aid population redistribution. Social sensing data with geographic information, such as point-of-interest (POI), are emerging as a new type of ancillary data for urban studies. This study, as a nascent attempt, combined POI and multisensor remote sensing data into new ancillary data to aid population redistribution from census to grid cells at a resolution of 250 m in Zhejiang, China. The accuracy of the results was assessed by comparing them with WorldPop. Results showed that our approach redistributed the population with fewer errors than WorldPop, especially at the extremes of population density. The approach developed in this study—incorporating POI with multisensor remotely sensed data in redistributing the population onto finer-scale spatial units—possessed considerable potential in the era of big data, where a substantial volume of social sensing data is increasingly being collected and becoming available.

Modeling spatial distribution of population for environmental epidemiological studies: Comparing the exposure estimates using choropleth versus dasymetric mapping

Precise population information is critical for identifying more accurate environmental exposures for air pollution impacts analysis. Basically, there are two methods for estimating spatial distribution of population, choropleth and dasymetric mapping. While the choropleth approach accounts for linear distribution of population over area based on census tract units, the dasymetric model accounts for a more heterogeneous population density by quantifying the association between the area-class map data categories and values of the statistical surface as encoded in the census dataset. Environmental epidemiological studies have indicated the dasymetric mapping as a more accurate approach to estimate and characterize population densities in large urban areas. However, investigations that have attempted to compare the exposure estimates from choropleth versus dasymetric mapping in environmental health analysis are still missing. This paper addresses this gap and compares the impact of using choropleth and dasymetric mapping in different exposure metrics. We compare the impact of using choropleth and dasymetric mapping in three case studies, defined here as case study A (relationship between urban structure types and health), case study B (PM_2.5 emissions and human exposure), and case study C (distance-decays of mortality risk related to PM_2.5 emitted by traffic along major highways). These case studies represent previous investigations performed by our research group where spatial distribution of population was an essential input for analysis. Our findings indicate that the method used to estimate spatial distribution of population impacts significantly the exposure estimates. We observed that the choropleth mapping overestimated exposure for the case study A and B, while for the case study C the exposure was underestimated by the choropleth approach. Our findings show that the dasymetric model is a preferred method for creating spatially-explicit information about population distribution for health exposure studies. The results presented here can be useful for the environmental health community to more accurately assess the relationship between environmental factors and health risks.

Gridded Population Maps Informed by Different Built Settlement Products

The spatial distribution of humans on the earth is critical knowledge that informs many disciplines and is available in a spatially explicit manner through gridded population techniques. While many approaches exist to produce specialized gridded population maps, little has been done to explore how remotely sensed, built-area datasets might be used to dasymetrically constrain these estimates. This study presents the effectiveness of three different high-resolution built area datasets for producing gridded population estimates through the dasymetric disaggregation of census counts in Haiti, Malawi, Madagascar, Nepal, Rwanda, and Thailand. Modeling techniques include a binary dasymetric redistribution, a random forest with a dasymetric component, and a hybrid of the previous two. The relative merits of these approaches and the data are discussed with regards to studying human populations and related spatially explicit phenomena. Results showed that the accuracy of random forest and hybrid models was comparable in five of six countries.

Linking Synthetic Populations to Household Geolocations: A Demonstration in Namibia

Whether evaluating gridded population dataset estimates (e.g., WorldPop, LandScan) or household survey sample designs, a population census linked to residential locations are needed. Geolocated census microdata data, however, are almost never available and are thus best simulated. In this paper, we simulate a close-to-reality population of individuals nested in households geolocated to realistic building locations. Using the R simPop package and ArcGIS, multiple realizations of a geolocated synthetic population are derived from the Namibia 2011 census 20% microdata sample, Namibia census enumeration area boundaries, Namibia 2013 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), and dozens of spatial covariates derived from publicly available datasets. Realistic household latitude-longitude coordinates are manually generated based on public satellite imagery. Simulated households are linked to latitude-longitude coordinates by identifying distinct household types with multivariate k-means analysis and modelling a probability surface for each household type using Random Forest machine learning methods. We simulate five realizations of a synthetic population in Namibia’s Oshikoto region, including demographic, socioeconomic, and outcome characteristics at the level of household, woman, and child. Comparison of variables in the synthetic population were made with 2011 census 20% sample and 2013 DHS data by primary sampling unit/enumeration area. We found that synthetic population variable distributions matched observed observations and followed expected spatial patterns. We outline a novel process to simulate a close-to-reality microdata census geolocated to realistic building locations in a low- or middle-income country setting to support spatial demographic research and survey methodological development while avoiding disclosure risk of individuals.

A Rapid Public Health Needs Assessment Framework for after Major Earthquakes Using High-Resolution Satellite Imagery

Background: Earthquakes causing significant damage have occurred frequently in China, producing enormous health losses, damage to the environment and public health issues. Timely public health response is crucial to reduce mortality and morbidity and promote overall effectiveness of rescue efforts after a major earthquake. Methods: A rapid assessment framework was established based on GIS technology and high-resolution remote sensing images. A two-step casualties and injures estimation method was developed to evaluate health loss with great rapidity. Historical data and health resources information was reviewed to evaluate the damage condition of medical resources and public health issues. Results: The casualties and injures are estimated within a few hours after an earthquake. For the Wenchuan earthquake, which killed about 96,000 people and injured about 288,000, the estimation accuracy is about 77%. 242/294 (82.3%) of the medical existing institutions were severely damaged. About 40,000 tons of safe drinking water was needed every day to ensure basic living needs. The risk of water-borne and foodborne disease, respiratory and close contact transmission disease is high. For natural foci diseases, the high-risk area of schistosomiasis was mapped in Lushan County as an example. Finally, temporary settlements for victims of earthquake were mapped. Conclusions: High resolution Earth observation technology can provide a scientific basis for public health emergency management in the major disasters field, which will be of great significance in helping policy makers effectively improve health service ability and public health emergency management in prevention and control of infectious diseases and risk assessment.

How to Tackle Natural Focal Infections: From Risk Assessment to Vaccination Strategies

Natural focal diseases are caused by biological agents associated with specific landscapes. The natural focus of such diseases is defined as any natural ecosystem containing the pathogen's population as an essential component. In such context, the agent circulates independently on human presence, and humans may become accidentally infected through contact with vectors or reservoirs. Some viruses (i.e., tick-borne encephalitis and Congo-Crimean hemorrhagic fever virus) are paradigmatic examples of natural focal diseases. When environmental changes, increase of reservoir/vector populations, demographic pressure, and/or changes in human behavior occur, increased risk of exposure to the pathogen may lead to clusters of cases or even to larger outbreaks. Intervention is often not highly cost-effective, thus only a few examples of large-scale or even targeted vaccination campaigns are reported in the international literature. To develop intervention models, risk assessment through disease mapping is an essential component of the response against these neglected threats and key to the design of prevention strategies, especially when effective vaccines against the disease are available.

GridSample: an R package to generate household survey primary sampling units (PSUs) from gridded population data

BACKGROUND

Household survey data are collected by governments, international organizations, and companies to prioritize policies and allocate billions of dollars. Surveys are typically selected from recent census data; however, census data are often outdated or inaccurate. This paper describes how gridded population data might instead be used as a sample frame, and introduces the R GridSample algorithm for selecting primary sampling units (PSU) for complex household surveys with gridded population data. With a gridded population dataset and geographic boundary of the study area, GridSample allows a two-step process to sample "seed" cells with probability proportionate to estimated population size, then "grows" PSUs until a minimum population is achieved in each PSU. The algorithm permits stratification and oversampling of urban or rural areas. The approximately uniform size and shape of grid cells allows for spatial oversampling, not possible in typical surveys, possibly improving small area estimates with survey results.

RESULTS

We replicated the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in GridSample by sampling the WorldPop 2010 UN-adjusted 100 m × 100 m gridded population dataset, stratifying by Rwanda's 30 districts, and oversampling in urban areas. The 2010 Rwanda DHS had 79 urban PSUs, 413 rural PSUs, with an average PSU population of 610 people. An equivalent sample in GridSample had 75 urban PSUs, 405 rural PSUs, and a median PSU population of 612 people. The number of PSUs differed because DHS added urban PSUs from specific districts while GridSample reallocated rural-to-urban PSUs across all districts.

CONCLUSIONS

Gridded population sampling is a promising alternative to typical census-based sampling when census data are moderately outdated or inaccurate. Four approaches to implementation have been tried: (1) using gridded PSU boundaries produced by GridSample, (2) manually segmenting gridded PSU using satellite imagery, (3) non-probability sampling (e.g. random-walk, "spin-the-pen"), and random sampling of households. Gridded population sampling is in its infancy, and further research is needed to assess the accuracy and feasibility of gridded population sampling. The GridSample R algorithm can be used to forward this research agenda.

Population Estimation Using a 3D City Model: A Multi-Scale Country-Wide Study in the Netherlands

The remote estimation of a region’s population has for decades been a key application of geographic information science in demography. Most studies have used 2D data (maps, satellite imagery) to estimate population avoiding field surveys and questionnaires. As the availability of semantic 3D city models is constantly increasing, we investigate to what extent they can be used for the same purpose. Based on the assumption that housing space is a proxy for the number of its residents, we use two methods to estimate the population with 3D city models in two directions: (1) disaggregation (areal interpolation) to estimate the population of small administrative entities (e.g. neighbourhoods) from that of larger ones (e.g. municipalities); and (2) a statistical modelling approach to estimate the population of large entities from a sample composed of their smaller ones (e.g. one acquired by a government register). Starting from a complete Dutch census dataset at the neighbourhood level and a 3D model of all 9.9 million buildings in the Netherlands, we compare the population estimates obtained by both methods with the actual population as reported in the census, and use it to evaluate the quality that can be achieved by estimations at different administrative levels. We also analyse how the volume-based estimation enabled by 3D city models fares in comparison to 2D methods using building footprints and floor areas, as well as how it is affected by different levels of semantic detail in a 3D city model. We conclude that 3D city models are useful for estimations of large areas (e.g. for a country), and that the 3D approach has clear advantages over the 2D approach.

Where are the horses? With the sheep or cows? Uncertain host location, vector-feeding preferences and the risk of African horse sickness transmission in Great Britain

Understanding the influence of non-susceptible hosts on vector-borne disease transmission is an important epidemiological problem. However, investigation of its impact can be complicated by uncertainty in the location of the hosts. Estimating the risk of transmission of African horse sickness (AHS) in Great Britain (GB), a virus transmitted by Culicoides biting midges, provides an insightful example because: (i) the patterns of risk are expected to be influenced by the presence of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts (cattle and sheep) and (ii) incomplete information on the spatial distribution of horses is available because the GB National Equine Database records owner, rather than horse, locations. Here, we combine land-use data with available horse owner distributions and, using a Bayesian approach, infer a realistic distribution for the location of horses. We estimate the risk of an outbreak of AHS in GB, using the basic reproduction number (R0), and demonstrate that mapping owner addresses as a proxy for horse location significantly underestimates the risk. We clarify the role of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts by showing that the risk of disease in the presence of many hosts (susceptible and non-susceptible) can be ultimately reduced to two fundamental factors: first, the abundance of vectors and how this depends on host density, and, second, the differential feeding preference of vectors among animal species.

High resolution population distribution maps for Southeast Asia in 2010 and 2015

Spatially accurate, contemporary data on human population distributions are vitally important to many applied and theoretical researchers. The Southeast Asia region has undergone rapid urbanization and population growth over the past decade, yet existing spatial population distribution datasets covering the region are based principally on population count data from censuses circa 2000, with often insufficient spatial resolution or input data to map settlements precisely. Here we outline approaches to construct a database of GIS-linked circa 2010 census data and methods used to construct fine-scale (∼100 meters spatial resolution) population distribution datasets for each country in the Southeast Asia region. Landsat-derived settlement maps and land cover information were combined with ancillary datasets on infrastructure to model population distributions for 2010 and 2015. These products were compared with those from two other methods used to construct commonly used global population datasets. Results indicate mapping accuracies are consistently higher when incorporating land cover and settlement information into the AsiaPop modelling process. Using existing data, it is possible to produce detailed, contemporary and easily updatable population distribution datasets for Southeast Asia. The 2010 and 2015 datasets produced are freely available as a product of the AsiaPop Project and can be downloaded from: www.asiapop.org.

Mobile phones and malaria: modeling human and parasite travel

Human mobility plays an important role in the dissemination of malaria parasites between regions of variable transmission intensity. Asymptomatic individuals can unknowingly carry parasites to regions where mosquito vectors are available, for example, undermining control programs and contributing to transmission when they travel. Understanding how parasites are imported between regions in this way is therefore an important goal for elimination planning and the control of transmission, and would enable control programs to target the principal sources of malaria. Measuring human mobility has traditionally been difficult to do on a population scale, but the widespread adoption of mobile phones in low-income settings presents a unique opportunity to directly measure human movements that are relevant to the spread of malaria. Here, we discuss the opportunities for measuring human mobility using data from mobile phones, as well as some of the issues associated with combining mobility estimates with malaria infection risk maps to meaningfully estimate routes of parasite importation.

Uncertainties in measuring populations potentially impacted by sea level rise and coastal flooding

A better understanding of the impact of global climate change requires information on the locations and characteristics of populations affected. For instance, with global sea level predicted to rise and coastal flooding set to become more frequent and intense, high-resolution spatial population datasets are increasingly being used to estimate the size of vulnerable coastal populations. Many previous studies have undertaken this by quantifying the size of populations residing in low elevation coastal zones using one of two global spatial population datasets available - LandScan and the Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP). This has been undertaken without consideration of the effects of this choice, which are a function of the quality of input datasets and differences in methods used to construct each spatial population dataset. Here we calculate estimated low elevation coastal zone resident population sizes from LandScan and GRUMP using previously adopted approaches, and quantify the absolute and relative differences achieved through switching datasets. Our findings suggest that the choice of one particular dataset over another can translate to a difference of more than 7.5 million vulnerable people for countries with extensive coastal populations, such as Indonesia and Japan. Our findings also show variations in estimates of proportions of national populations at risk range from <0.1% to 45% differences when switching between datasets, with large differences predominantly for countries where coarse and outdated input data were used in the construction of the spatial population datasets. The results highlight the need for the construction of spatial population datasets built on accurate, contemporary and detailed census data for use in climate change impact studies and the importance of acknowledging uncertainties inherent in existing spatial population datasets when estimating the demographic impacts of climate change.

The role of spatial representation in the development of a LUR model for Ottawa, Canada

A land use regression (LUR) model for the mapping of NO(2) concentrations in Ottawa, Canada was created based on data from 29 passive air quality samplers from the City of Ottawa's National Capital Air Quality Mapping Project and two permanent stations. Model sensitivity was assessed against three spatial representations of population: population at the dissemination area level, population at the dissemination block level and a dasymetrically derived population representation. A spatial database with land use, roads, population, zoning, greenspaces and elevation was created. Polycategorical zoning data were used in dasymetric mapping to spatially focus population data derived from the dissemination blocks to a sub-block level for comparison purposes. Dasymetric population mapping provided no significant LUR model improvement in explained variance when compared to block level population; however, both the former were significantly better than the dissemination area level population representations. However, where block level population is not available or too costly to acquire, our method using polycategorical zoning data provides a viable alternative in LUR modelling endeavours.

Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status.

METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence.

CONCLUSION

The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work.

Plasmodium vivax malaria endemicity in Indonesia in 2010

Background

Plasmodium vivax imposes substantial morbidity and mortality burdens in endemic zones. Detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of this parasite is needed to combat it. We used model based geostatistics (MBG) techniques to generate a contemporary map of risk of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Indonesia in 2010.

Methods

Plasmodium vivax Annual Parasite Incidence data (2006–2008) and temperature masks were used to map P. vivax transmission limits. A total of 4,658 community surveys of P. vivax parasite rate (PvPR) were identified (1985–2010) for mapping quantitative estimates of contemporary endemicity within those limits. After error-checking a total of 4,457 points were included into a national database of age-standardized 1–99 year old PvPR data. A Bayesian MBG procedure created a predicted PvPR_1–99 endemicity surface with uncertainty estimates. Population at risk estimates were derived with reference to a 2010 human population surface.

Results

We estimated 129.6 million people in Indonesia lived at risk of P. vivax transmission in 2010. Among these, 79.3% inhabited unstable transmission areas and 20.7% resided in stable transmission areas. In western Indonesia, the predicted P. vivax prevalence was uniformly low. Over 70% of the population at risk in this region lived on Java and Bali islands, where little malaria transmission occurs. High predicted prevalence areas were observed in the Lesser Sundas, Maluku and Papua. In general, prediction uncertainty was relatively low in the west and high in the east.

Conclusion

Most Indonesians living with endemic P. vivax experience relatively low risk of infection. However, blood surveys for this parasite are likely relatively insensitive and certainly do not detect the dormant liver stage reservoir of infection. The prospects for P. vivax elimination would be improved with deeper understanding of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) distribution, anti-relapse therapy practices and manageability of P. vivax importation risk, especially in Java and Bali.

A two-stage cluster sampling method using gridded population data, a GIS, and Google Earth(TM) imagery in a population-based mortality survey in Iraq

Background

Mortality estimates can measure and monitor the impacts of conflict on a population, guide humanitarian efforts, and help to better understand the public health impacts of conflict. Vital statistics registration and surveillance systems are rarely functional in conflict settings, posing a challenge of estimating mortality using retrospective population-based surveys.

Results

We present a two-stage cluster sampling method for application in population-based mortality surveys. The sampling method utilizes gridded population data and a geographic information system (GIS) to select clusters in the first sampling stage and Google Earth ^TM imagery and sampling grids to select households in the second sampling stage. The sampling method is implemented in a household mortality study in Iraq in 2011. Factors affecting feasibility and methodological quality are described.

Conclusion

Sampling is a challenge in retrospective population-based mortality studies and alternatives that improve on the conventional approaches are needed. The sampling strategy presented here was designed to generate a representative sample of the Iraqi population while reducing the potential for bias and considering the context specific challenges of the study setting. This sampling strategy, or variations on it, are adaptable and should be considered and tested in other conflict settings.

Large-scale spatial population databases in infectious disease research

Modelling studies on the spatial distribution and spread of infectious diseases are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with global risk mapping and epidemic modelling studies now popular. Yet, in deriving populations at risk of disease estimates, these spatial models must rely on existing global and regional datasets on population distribution, which are often based on outdated and coarse resolution data. Moreover, a variety of different methods have been used to model population distribution at large spatial scales. In this review we describe the main global gridded population datasets that are freely available for health researchers and compare their construction methods, and highlight the uncertainties inherent in these population datasets. We review their application in past studies on disease risk and dynamics, and discuss how the choice of dataset can affect results. Moreover, we highlight how the lack of contemporary, detailed and reliable data on human population distribution in low income countries is proving a barrier to obtaining accurate large-scale estimates of population at risk and constructing reliable models of disease spread, and suggest research directions required to further reduce these barriers.

Population distribution, settlement patterns and accessibility across Africa in 2010

The spatial distribution of populations and settlements across a country and their interconnectivity and accessibility from urban areas are important for delivering healthcare, distributing resources and economic development. However, existing spatially explicit population data across Africa are generally based on outdated, low resolution input demographic data, and provide insufficient detail to quantify rural settlement patterns and, thus, accurately measure population concentration and accessibility. Here we outline approaches to developing a new high resolution population distribution dataset for Africa and analyse rural accessibility to population centers. Contemporary population count data were combined with detailed satellite-derived settlement extents to map population distributions across Africa at a finer spatial resolution than ever before. Substantial heterogeneity in settlement patterns, population concentration and spatial accessibility to major population centres is exhibited across the continent. In Africa, 90% of the population is concentrated in less than 21% of the land surface and the average per-person travel time to settlements of more than 50,000 inhabitants is around 3.5 hours, with Central and East Africa displaying the longest average travel times. The analyses highlight large inequities in access, the isolation of many rural populations and the challenges that exist between countries and regions in providing access to services. The datasets presented are freely available as part of the AfriPop project, providing an evidence base for guiding strategic decisions.

Assessing the use of global land cover data for guiding large area population distribution modelling

Gridded population distribution data are finding increasing use in a wide range of fields, including resource allocation, disease burden estimation and climate change impact assessment. Land cover information can be used in combination with detailed settlement extents to redistribute aggregated census counts to improve the accuracy of national-scale gridded population data. In East Africa, such analyses have been done using regional land cover data, thus restricting application of the approach to this region. If gridded population data are to be improved across Africa, an alternative, consistent and comparable source of land cover data is required. Here these analyses were repeated for Kenya using four continent-wide land cover datasets combined with detailed settlement extents and accuracies were assessed against detailed census data. The aim was to identify the large area land cover dataset that, combined with detailed settlement extents, produce the most accurate population distribution data. The effectiveness of the population distribution modelling procedures in the absence of high resolution census data was evaluated, as was the extrapolation ability of population densities between different regions. Results showed that the use of the GlobCover dataset refined with detailed settlement extents provided significantly more accurate gridded population data compared to the use of refined AVHRR-derived, MODIS-derived and GLC2000 land cover datasets. This study supports the hypothesis that land cover information is important for improving population distribution model accuracies, particularly in countries where only coarse resolution census data are available. Obtaining high resolution census data must however remain the priority. With its higher spatial resolution and its more recent data acquisition, the GlobCover dataset was found as the most valuable resource to use in combination with detailed settlement extents for the production of gridded population datasets across large areas.

Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in Indonesia in 2010

Background

Malaria control programs require a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of infection risk to efficiently allocate resources. We used model based geostatistics (MBG) techniques to generate a contemporary map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria risk in Indonesia in 2010.

Methods

Plasmodium falciparum Annual Parasite Incidence (PfAPI) data (2006–2008) were used to map limits of P. falciparum transmission. A total of 2,581 community blood surveys of P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) were identified (1985–2009). After quality control, 2,516 were included into a national database of age-standardized 2–10 year old PfPR data (PfPR_2–10) for endemicity mapping. A Bayesian MBG procedure was used to create a predicted surface of PfPR_2–10 endemicity with uncertainty estimates. Population at risk estimates were derived with reference to a 2010 human population count surface.

Results

We estimate 132.8 million people in Indonesia, lived at risk of P. falciparum transmission in 2010. Of these, 70.3% inhabited areas of unstable transmission and 29.7% in stable transmission. Among those exposed to stable risk, the vast majority were at low risk (93.39%) with the reminder at intermediate (6.6%) and high risk (0.01%). More people in western Indonesia lived in unstable rather than stable transmission zones. In contrast, fewer people in eastern Indonesia lived in unstable versus stable transmission areas.

Conclusion

While further feasibility assessments will be required, the immediate prospects for sustained control are good across much of the archipelago and medium term plans to transition to the pre-elimination phase are not unrealistic for P. falciparum. Endemicity in areas of Papua will clearly present the greatest challenge. This P. falciparum endemicity map allows malaria control agencies and their partners to comprehensively assess the region-specific prospects for reaching pre-elimination, monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of future strategies against this 2010 baseline and ultimately improve their evidence-based malaria control strategies.

Mapping the risk of anaemia in preschool-age children: the contribution of malnutrition, malaria, and helminth infections in West Africa

BACKGROUND

Childhood anaemia is considered a severe public health problem in most countries of sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the geographical distribution of prevalence of anaemia and mean haemoglobin concentration (Hb) in children aged 1-4 y (preschool children) in West Africa. The aim was to estimate the geographical risk profile of anaemia accounting for malnutrition, malaria, and helminth infections, the risk of anaemia attributable to these factors, and the number of anaemia cases in preschool children for 2011.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

National cross-sectional household-based demographic health surveys were conducted in 7,147 children aged 1-4 y in Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Mali in 2003-2006. Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to predict the geographical distribution of mean Hb and anaemia risk, adjusting for the nutritional status of preschool children, the location of their residence, predicted Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate in the 2- to 10-y age group (Pf PR(2-10)), and predicted prevalence of Schistosoma haematobium and hookworm infections. In the four countries, prevalence of mild, moderate, and severe anaemia was 21%, 66%, and 13% in Burkina Faso; 28%, 65%, and 7% in Ghana, and 26%, 62%, and 12% in Mali. The mean Hb was lowest in Burkina Faso (89 g/l), in males (93 g/l), and for children 1-2 y (88 g/l). In West Africa, severe malnutrition, Pf PR(2-10), and biological synergisms between S. haematobium and hookworm infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk; an estimated 36.8%, 14.9%, 3.7%, 4.2%, and 0.9% of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria, S. haematobium infections, hookworm infections, and S. haematobium/hookworm coinfections, respectively. A large spatial cluster of low mean Hb (<80 g/l) and maximal risk of anaemia (>95%) was predicted for an area shared by Burkina Faso and Mali. We estimate that in 2011, approximately 6.7 million children aged 1-4 y are anaemic in the three study countries.

CONCLUSIONS

By mapping the distribution of anaemia risk in preschool children adjusted for malnutrition and parasitic infections, we provide a means to identify the geographical limits of anaemia burden and the contribution that malnutrition and parasites make to anaemia. Spatial targeting of ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of other anaemia causes, such as malaria and helminth infection, can contribute to efficiently reducing the burden of anaemia in preschool children in Africa.

The applications of model-based geostatistics in helminth epidemiology and control

Funding agencies are dedicating substantial resources to tackle helminth infections. Reliable maps of the distribution of helminth infection can assist these efforts by targeting control resources to areas of greatest need. The ability to define the distribution of infection at regional, national and subnational levels has been enhanced greatly by the increased availability of good quality survey data and the use of model-based geostatistics (MBG), enabling spatial prediction in unsampled locations. A major advantage of MBG risk mapping approaches is that they provide a flexible statistical platform for handling and representing different sources of uncertainty, providing plausible and robust information on the spatial distribution of infections to inform the design and implementation of control programmes. Focussing on schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis, with additional examples for lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis, we review the progress made to date with the application of MBG tools in large-scale, real-world control programmes and propose a general framework for their application to inform integrative spatial planning of helminth disease control programmes.