Survival rates and causes of mortality of Amur tigers on and near the Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik

Spinal disease in a captive population of Panthera species: Review of 86 cases (2003-2021)

This retrospective study aimed to characterize and determine the prevalence of spinal disease in nondomestic felids within a sanctuary population. A review of 304 postmortem examination reports in Panthera species from 2003 to 2021 revealed that 86/304 (28%) were diagnosed with spinal disease. Spinal lesions were categorized according to pathologic process: degenerative (78/86, 91%), developmental (8/86, 9%), inflammatory (6/86, 7%), or neoplastic (8/86, 9%). Degenerative lesions included intervertebral disk disease (IVDD; 66/78, 85%), spondylosis without concurrent IVDD (4/78, 5%), and idiopathic (noncompressive) degenerative myelopathies (8/78, 10%). Fourteen individuals had lesions in more than 1 category. Developmental cases were vertebral (4/8) or spinal cord (3/8) malformations or both (1/8). Inflammatory lesions included meningitis (4/6) and meningomyelitis (2/6). Neoplasia included vertebral multiple myeloma (4/8) and others (4/8). IVDD often involved multiple disks but primarily affected the cervical (41/66, 62%) and thoracic spine (32/66, 48%). A multivariate binary logistic model predicted the diagnosis of IVDD at postmortem examination, where odds of being affected were highest for males, lions (Panthera leo), and geriatric age group (>14 years). The spinal lesions documented in this study provide insight into high-risk signalment categories and predominant associated lesions affecting captive Panthera populations. Specifically, spinal disease, especially cervical IVDD, is common among Panthera species, and lions, males, and older felids are at increased risk.

Higher Mortality Is Not a Universal Cost of Dispersal: A Case Study in African Wild Dogs

AbstractMortality is considered one of the main costs of dispersal. A reliable evaluation of mortality, however, is often hindered by a lack of information about the fate of individuals that disappear under unexplained circumstances (i.e., missing individuals). Here, we addressed this uncertainty by applying a Bayesian mortality analysis that inferred the fate of missing individuals according to information from individuals with known fate. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that mortality during dispersal is higher than mortality among nondispersers using 32 years of mark-resighting data from a free-ranging population of the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) in northern Botswana. Contrary to expectations, we found that mortality during dispersal was lower than mortality among nondispersers, indicating that higher mortality is not a universal cost of dispersal. Our findings suggest that group living can incur costs for certain age classes, such as limited access to resources as group density increases, that exceed the mortality costs associated with dispersal. By challenging the accepted expectation of higher mortality during dispersal, we urge for further investigations of this key life history trait and propose a robust statistical approach to reduce bias in mortality estimates.

Disease threats to tigers and their prey

The contraction of the global tiger population over the last 100 years into small, often isolated subpopulations has made them increasingly vulnerable to the impact of disease. Despite this, the health of wild tigers continues to be insufficiently funded and explored. For example, canine distemper virus (CDV), has been associated with localized declines and increased risk of extinction, and yet has received little research attention in most tiger range countries. The emergence of new pathogenic threats has posed fresh challenges, including African swine fever virus (ASFV), which has the potential to devastate wild boar populations, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) with implications for tiger conservation that remain unknown. The objective of this review is to synthesize current research on the health of tigers and their prey that impacts the conservation of tigers in the wild. Published sources are interpreted based on three mechanisms through which disease can affect the viability of tiger populations: (1) by reducing the survival of adult tigers, (2) by reducing breeding productivity, and (3) by reducing the carrying capacity of tiger habitat through decreased prey abundance. Examples of CDV, SARS-CoV2, carnivore protoparvovirus 1 and ASFV are used to illustrate these processes and inform discussion of research and mitigation priorities.

Rapid behavioral responses of endangered tigers to major roads during COVID-19 lockdown

Roads pose a major, and growing, challenge for the conservation of endangered species. However, very little is known about how endangered species behaviorally respond to roads and what that means for road mitigation strategies. We used the nation-wide lockdown in Nepal during the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment to investigate how dramatic reductions in traffic volume along the national highway affected movements of two GPS-collared tigers (Panthera tigris)-a globally endangered species. This work is the first systematic research on tigers in Nepal using radiotelemetry or GPS tracking data since the 1980s. We found that the highway more strongly constrained the space use and habitat selection of the male in Parsa National Park than the female in Bardia National Park. Over the entire study period, the female on average crossed 10 times more often per week than the male, and when he was near the highway, he was over 11 times more probable to not cross it than to cross during the day. However, we also found that the cessation of traffic during the pandemic lockdown relaxed tiger avoidance of roads and made the highway more permeable for both animals. They were 2-3 times more probable to cross the highway during the lockdown than before the lockdown. In the month following the lockdown, the space use area of the male tiger tripled in size (160-550 km²), whereas the female's shrunk to half its previous size (33-15 km²). These divergent patterns likely reflect differences between the two parks in their highway traffic volumes and regulations as well as ecological conditions. Our results provide clear evidence that vehicle traffic on major roads impede tiger movements, but also that tigers can respond quickly to reductions in human pressures. We conclude by identifying various actions to mitigate road impacts on tigers and other endangered species.

Unveiling demographic and mating strategies of Panthera onca in the Pantanal, Brazil

We conducted the first long-term and large-scale study of demographic characteristics and reproductive behavior in a wild jaguar (Panthera onca) population. Data were collected through a combination of direct observations and camera trapping on a study area that operates both as a cattle ranch and ecotourism destination. Jaguars exhibited two birth peaks: April/May and October/November, that are the end and the beginning of the wet season in the Pantanal, respectively. The average litter size was 1.43 ± 0.65. Single cubs made up a total of 65.7% of the births, and we found a slight predominance of females (1.15:1 ratio) in litters. The mean age at independence was 17.6 ± 0.98 months, with sex-biased dispersal, with all males (n = 27) leaving the natal home range and 63.6% of females exhibiting philopatry. The interbirth intervals were 21.8 ± 3.2 months and the mean age at first parturition was 31.8 ± 4.2 months. Our results estimated a lifetime reproductive success for female jaguars of 8.13 cubs. Our observations also indicate that female jaguars can display mating behavior during cub rearing or pregnancy, representing 41.4% of the consorts and copulations recorded. We speculate that this behavior has evolved as a defense against infanticide and physical harm to the female. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such behavior is described for this species. All aggressive interactions between females involved the presence of cubs, following the offspring–defense hypothesis, that lead to territoriality among females in mammals, regardless of food availability. In the face of growing threats to this apex predator, this work unveils several aspects of its natural history, representing a baseline for comparison with future research and providing critical information for population viability analysis and conservation planning in the long term.

Forecasting effects of transport infrastructure on endangered tigers: a tool for conservation planning

The rapid development of transport infrastructure is a major threat to endangered species worldwide. Roads and railways can increase animal mortality, fragment habitats, and exacerbate other threats to biodiversity. Predictive models that forecast the future impacts to endangered species can guide land-use planning in ways that proactively reduce the negative effects of transport infrastructure. Agent-based models are well suited for predictive scenario testing, yet their application to endangered species conservation is rare. Here, we developed a spatially explicit, agent-based model to forecast the effects of transport infrastructure on an isolated tiger (Panthera tigris) population in Nepal's Chitwan National Park-a global biodiversity hotspot. Specifically, our model evaluated the independent and interactive effects of two mechanisms by which transport infrastructure may affect tigers: (a) increasing tiger mortality, e.g., via collisions with vehicles, and (b) depleting prey near infrastructure. We projected potential impacts on tiger population dynamics based on the: (i) existing transportation network in and near the park, and (ii) the inclusion of a proposed railway intersecting through the park's buffer zone. Our model predicted that existing roads would kill 46 tigers over 20 years via increased mortality, and reduced the adult tiger population by 39% (133 to 81). Adding the proposed railway directly killed 10 more tigers over those 20 years; deaths that reduced the overall tiger population by 30 more individuals (81 to 51). Road-induced mortality also decreased the proportion of time a tiger occupied a given site by 5 years in the 20-year simulation. Interestingly, we found that transportation-induced depletion of prey decreased tiger occupancy by nearly 20% in sites close to roads and the railway, thereby reducing tiger exposure to transportation-induced mortality. The results of our model constitute a strong argument for taking into account prey distributions into the planning of roads and railways. Our model can promote tiger-friendly transportation development, for example, by improving Environmental Impact Assessments, identifying "no go" zones where transport infrastructure should be prohibited, and recommending alternative placement of roads and railways.

Poaching of protected wolves fluctuated seasonally and with non-wolf hunting

Poaching is the main cause of mortality for many large carnivores, and mitigating it is imperative for the persistence of their populations. For Wisconsin gray wolves (Canis lupus), periods of increased risk in overall mortality and poaching seem to overlap temporally with legal hunting seasons for other large mammals (hunting wolves was prohibited). We analyzed monitoring data from adult, collared wolves in Wisconsin, USA (1979-2012, n = 495) using a competing-risk approach to test explicitly if seasons during which it was legal to train hunting hounds (hounding) or hunt other large mammals (hunting) affected wolves' hazard of cause-specific mortality and disappearance. We found increases in hazard for disappearances and documented ('reported') poaching during seasons with hunting, hounding or snow cover relative to a season without these factors. The 'reported poached' hazard increased > 650% during seasons with hunting and snow cover, which may be due to a seasonal surge in numbers of potential poachers or to some poachers augmenting their activities. Snow cover was a major environmental factor contributing to poaching, presumably through increased detection of wolves. Our study suggests poaching is by far the highest mortality hazard for wolves and reinforces the need for protections and policies targeting poaching of protected populations.

Habitat suitability for a community of Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) and their prey in Changbaishan

The Changbaishan reserve and the forests around it are one of the priority areas for Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) recovery in northeastern China. Previous habitat suitability analyses only took the ecological requirements of tigers into consideration, so this study aims to determine habitat suitability for a tiger-prey community in the region, by analysing ungulate prey availability and habitat suitability for both predator and prey. Three prey species were found, using the snow tacking method: red deer (Cervus canadensis xanthopygus), wild boar (Sus scrofa), and roe deer (Capreolus pygargus). Habitat suitability was evaluated for tigers, red deer, and wild boar, using a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) process. MCE results showed that (1) habitat suitability is generally low outside the reserve for all three species; (2) suitability values were the lowest for tigers due to high intensity of human impact in the area, with suitable habitat restricted to the centre of the reserve; and (3) red deer and wild boar would find pockets of suitable habitat outside the reserve. A combination of low forest quality and high human impact intensity imposes significant environmental pressure to those ungulates. To recover tiger population in Changbaishan, forest quality and human impacts should be properly managed, which should increase prey availability.

Potential risk zone for anthropogenic mortality of carnivores in Gandaki Province, Nepal

Anthropogenic pressures in human-dominated landscapes often contribute to wildlife mortality. Carnivores are especially vulnerable to human-induced mortality due to the perceived threat to livestock and humans. Despite having widespread conservation implications, carnivore mortality data have been largely underutilized within Nepal. This study utilized Maxent to identify high-risk areas and explore the contribution of habitat attributes associated with carnivore mortality using the casualty database within the Gandaki province of central Nepal. We categorized the risk to carnivore species in three taxonomic groups, Felid, Viverridae, and Herpestidae, and identified a 3704-km2 area within the province at high risk for carnivore casualty. The middle mountains were the riskiest physiographic zone, and the Annapurna Conservation Area represented the largest risk zone among the four protected areas. Agricultural land was the most problematic area in terms of carnivore casualty. The human population was positively associated with high-risk areas and the number of casualties, whereas protected area cover had a negative association. This study identified that the common leopard was at the highest risk of mortality and therefore would benefit from the implementation of an action plan and species-specific conservation strategies, especially within identified high-risk zones. An expansion of protected areas in the middle mountain region would serve to greatly reduce carnivore casualty. Species distribution modeling can be further used with national-level spatial and temporal mortality data to identify the most prominent casualty times and pinpoint potential casualty locations throughout the country.

Sex-specific actuarial and reproductive senescence in zoo-housed tiger (Panthera tigris): The importance of sub-species for conservation

A fifth of all known species are currently classified as threatened in the wild: the rate of biodiversity loss is rapid, continuous, and mostly due to anthropogenic activities. To slow down this decline, the accurate estimation of demographic parameters for threatened species is critical. With this aim, zoo institutions play an important role, giving access to data on zoo-housed animals, which aids researchers working on species life-history traits and intrinsic factors influencing the fitness of both sexes, such as age. While tigers (Panthera tigris) are particularly threatened in their natural environment, few of their demographic parameters have been determined because of their solitary and elusive nature as well as low population density. Using individual-based information for more than 9200 tigers (from 1938 to 2018) recorded in the International Tiger Studbook 2018, we aimed to determine sub-species and sex-specific variability of survival and reproductive parameters with age. No significant sex-difference in actuarial senescence (i.e., decline of survival probabilities with age) was observed but males tended to have a higher juvenile mortality and a faster senescence than females. Reproductive senescence (i.e., decline of reproductive parameters with age) was more pronounced in females than males. Moreover, we observed sub-species-specific variation in mortality and reproductive patterns, pointing out the necessity to consider them independently for conservation goals. Our findings can provide meaningful improvements to the husbandry of zoo-housed tigers, emphasizing the importance of adult breeding females of 7-9 years-old to control zoo-housed population size, but also providing accurate demographic estimates, crucial to set up effective conservation plans.

How Important Are Resistance, Dispersal Ability, Population Density and Mortality in Temporally Dynamic Simulations of Population Connectivity? A Case Study of Tigers in Southeast Asia

Development of landscape connectivity and spatial population models is challenging, given the uncertainty of parameters and the sensitivity of models to factors and their interactions over time. Using spatially and temporally explicit simulations, we evaluate the sensitivity of population distribution, abundance and connectivity of tigers in Southeast Asia to variations of resistance surface, dispersal ability, population density and mortality. Utilizing a temporally dynamic cumulative resistant kernel approach, we tested (1) effects and interactions of parameters on predicted population size, distribution and connectivity, and (2) displacement and divergence in scenarios across timesteps. We evaluated the effect of varying levels of factors on simulated population, cumulative resistance kernel extent, and kernel sum across nine timesteps, producing 24,300 simulations. We demonstrate that predicted population, range shifts, and landscape connectivity are highly sensitive to parameter values with significant interactions and relative strength of effects varying by timestep. Dispersal ability, mortality risk and their interaction dominated predictions. Further, population density had intermediate effects, landscape resistance had relatively low impacts, and mitigation of linear barriers (highways) via lowered resistance had little relative effect. Results are relevant to regional, long-term tiger population management, providing insight into potential population growth and range expansion across a landscape of global conservation priority.

Road development in Asia: Assessing the range-wide risks to tigers

Roads are proliferating worldwide at an unprecedented rate, with potentially severe impacts on wildlife. We calculated the extent and potential impacts of road networks across the 1,160,000-km2, 13-country range of the globally endangered tiger (Panthera tigris)-a conservation umbrella species. We found that roads were pervasive, totaling 134,000 km across tiger conservation landscapes (TCLs), even in tiger priority sites and protected areas. Approximately 43% of the area where tiger breeding occurs and 57% of the area in TCLs fell within the road-effect zone. Consequently, current road networks may be decreasing tiger and prey abundances by more than 20%. Nearly 24,000 km of new roads will be built in TCLs by 2050, stimulated through major investment projects such as China's Belt and Road Initiative. Given that roads will be a pervasive challenge to tiger recovery in the future, we urge decision-makers to make sustainable road development a top priority.

Risks from disease caused by Mycobacterium orygis as a consequence of Greater one-horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) translocation in Nepal

The greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) is listed as vulnerable by the IUCN Red List. Mycobacterium orygis-associated disease was identified in a single greater one-horned rhino in Chitwan National Park in February 2015 prior to a planned translocation of five greater one-horned rhinoceros from Chitwan National Park to Bardia National Park for conservation purposes. This paper describes a qualitative disease risk analysis conducted retrospectively post-translocation for Mycobacterium orygis and this translocation, with the aim to improve the understanding of disease threats to the conservation of greater one-horned rhino. The disease risk analysis method used was devised by Sainsbury & Vaughan-Higgins (Conservation Biology, 26, 2017, 442) with modifications by Bobadilla Suarez et al (EcoHealth, 14, 2017, 1) and Rideout et al (EcoHealth, 14, 2017, 42) and included the use of a scenario tree and an analysis of uncertainty as recommended by Murray et al. (Handbook on import risk analysis for animals and animal products. Volume 1. Introduction and qualitative risk analysis, 2004), and the first time this combination of methods has been used to assess the risk from disease in a conservation translocation. The scenario tree and analysis of uncertainty increased the clarity and transparency of the analysis. Rideout et al.'s (EcoHealth, 14, 2017, 42) criteria were used to assess the source hazard and may be useful in comparative assessment of source hazards for future conservation translocations. The likelihood of release into the destination site of Mycobacterium orygis as a source hazard was estimated as of low risk, the risk of exposure of populations at the destination was of high risk and the likelihood of biological and environmental consequences was low. Overall, the risk from disease associated with Mycobacterium orygis as a result of this translocation was found to be low. Recommendations on disease risk management strategies could be improved with a better understanding of the epidemiology including the presence/absence of Mycobacterium orygis in greater one-horned rhino to develop effective disease risk management strategies.

Unravelling the sex- and age-specific impact of poaching mortality with multievent modeling

Background

Poaching is a prominent source of ‘hidden hurdles’, cryptic impacts of human activities that may hinder the conservation of animal populations. Estimating poaching mortality is challenging, as the evidence for illegal killing is not outwardly obvious. Using resighting and recovery data collected on 141 marked red deer Cervus elaphus within the Stelvio National Park (central Italian Alps), we show how multievent models allow to assess the direct impacts of illegal harvesting on age- and sex-specific survival, accounting for uncertainty over mortality causes.

Results

Mortality caused by poaching was consistently higher for males than for females in all age classes. In males, the probability of dying from poaching was higher for extreme age classes, while in females all age classes showed fairly similar values of poaching mortality. The strong bias in sex-specific poaching mortality was possibly due to trophy killing in adult males and ‘bushmeat-like’ killing for private or commercial gain in young males and in females.

Conclusions

A robust assessment of age- and sex-specific prevalence of poaching in wildlife populations is pivotal when illegal killing is of conservation concern. This provides timely information on what segment of the population is most likely to be affected. Besides obvious demographic consequences on small populations, age- and sex-biased poaching prevalence may contrast with the need to maintain ecosystem complexity and may alter behavioral responses to human presence. The information provided by multievent models, whose flexibility makes them adaptable to many systems where individual-based data is part of population monitoring, offers a support to design appropriate strategies for the conservation of wildlife populations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12983-019-0321-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Relationships between humans and ungulate prey shape Amur tiger occurrence in a core protected area along the Sino-Russian border

Large carnivore populations are globally threatened by human impacts. Better protection could benefit carnivores, co-occurring species, and the ecosystems they inhabit. The relationship between carnivores and humans, however, is not always consistent in areas of high human activities and is often mediated through the effects of humans on their ungulate prey. To test assumptions regarding how prey abundance and humans affect carnivore occurrence, density, and daily activity patterns, we assessed tiger-prey-human spatiotemporal patterns based on camera-trapping data in Hunchun Nature Reserve, a promising core area for tiger restoration in China. Our study area contained seasonally varying levels of human disturbance in summer and winter. We used N-mixture models to predict the relative abundance of ungulate prey considering human and environmental covariates. We estimated tiger spatial distribution using occupancy models and models of prey relative abundance from N-mixture models. Finally, we estimated temporal activity patterns of tigers and prey using kernel density estimates to test for temporal avoidance between tigers, prey, and humans. Our results show that human-related activities depressed the relative abundance of prey at different scales and in different ways, but across species, the relative abundance of prey directly increased tiger occupancy. Tiger occupancy was strongly positively associated with the relative abundance of sika deer in summer and winter. The crepuscular and nocturnal tigers also apparently synchronized their activity with that of wild boar and roe deer. However, tigers temporally avoided human activity without direct spatial avoidance. Our study supports the effects of humans on tigers through human impacts on prey populations. Conservation efforts may not only target human disturbance on predators, but also on prey to alleviate human-carnivore conflict.

Endoparasites of the Siberian tiger (Panthera tigris altaica)

There have been few reports on the diversity and prevalence of parasitic fauna of the endangered Siberian tiger, which inhabits the territory of the Russian Far East. The present review attempts to summarize the information about the parasitic fauna of wild Siberian tigers, which includes 15 helminths and 3 protozoan species. The most prevalent parasitic species was found to be Toxocara cati, followed by Toxascaris leonina. Another commonly recorded Platyhelminth species is Paragonimus westermani, which causes a lethal infection of the lung parenchyma in Siberian tigers. However, the information about infections by this fluke in the Siberian tigers is scarce, although P. westermani infections pose a serious health hazard to tiger populations. The nematodes Aelurostrongylus abstrusus and Thominx aerophilus are found in Siberian tigers with an occurrence rate of 2.3% and 19%, respectively. The information on the parasitic infestations of captive populations of Siberian tigers is also presented along with the sources of infection and hazards for the wild tiger populations in their natural environment.

Estimating unrecorded human-caused mortalities of grizzly bears in the Flathead Valley, British Columbia, Canada

Managing the number of grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) mortalities to a sustainable level is fundamental to bear conservation. All known grizzly bear deaths are recorded by management agencies but the number of human-caused grizzly bear deaths that are not recorded is generally unknown, causing considerable uncertainty in the total number of mortalities. Here, we compare the number of bears killed legally by hunters to the number killed by people for all other reasons, for bears wearing functioning radiocollars and for uncollared bears recorded in the British Columbia (BC) government mortality database for the Flathead Valley in southeast BC. Between 1980 and 2016, permitted hunters killed 10 collared bears and 12 (9 known, 3 suspected) were killed by people for other reasons. This ratio differed (p < 0.0001) from the uncollared bears in the government database where 71 were killed by hunters while only 10 were killed for other reasons. We estimate that 88% (95% CI; 67–96%) of the human-caused mortalities that were not by permitted hunters were unreported. The study area may have low reporting rates because it is >40 km on a gravel road from a Conservation Officer office, so reporting is difficult and there are no human residences so there is little concern of a neighbor contacting an officer. Our results are likely indicative of other places that are road-accessed but far from settlements. We discuss the implications of sampling individuals for collaring and the possible implications of wearing a collar on the animal’s fate.

Long term monitoring of jaguars in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, Belize; Implications for camera trap studies of carnivores

In this study, we estimate life history parameters and abundance for a protected jaguar population using camera-trap data from a 14-year monitoring program (2002-2015) in Belize, Central America. We investigated the dynamics of this jaguar population using 3,075 detection events of 105 individual adult jaguars. Using robust design open population models, we estimated apparent survival and temporary emigration and investigated individual heterogeneity in detection rates across years. Survival probability was high and constant among the years for both sexes (φ = 0.78), and the maximum (conservative) age recorded was 14 years. Temporary emigration rate for the population was random, but constant through time at 0.20 per year. Detection probability varied between sexes, and among years and individuals. Heterogeneity in detection took the form of a dichotomy for males: those with consistently high detection rates, and those with low, sporadic detection rates, suggesting a relatively stable population of 'residents' consistently present and a fluctuating layer of 'transients'. Female detection was always low and sporadic. On average, twice as many males than females were detected per survey, and individual detection rates were significantly higher for males. We attribute sex-based differences in detection to biases resulting from social variation in trail-walking behaviour. The number of individual females detected increased when the survey period was extended from 3 months to a full year. Due to the low detection rates of females and the variable 'transient' male subpopulation, annual abundance estimates based on 3-month surveys had low precision. To estimate survival and monitor population changes in elusive, wide-ranging, low-density species, we recommend repeated surveys over multiple years; and suggest that continuous monitoring over multiple years yields even further insight into population dynamics of elusive predator populations.

Estimating jaguar (Panthera onca) density in a preserved coastal area of French Guiana

Knowledge of the jaguar population is needed in French Guiana that faces an increase of human-jaguar conflicts. We carried out a camera trap survey to assess jaguar local density and home range size in a preserved coastal area of French Guiana. We ran spatially explicit capture recapture (SECR) models. In our model, the scale parameter σ, that is linked to the home range size, was larger for males (σ=3.87±0.59 SE km) than for females (σ=2.33±0.30 SE km). The assessed jaguar density was 3.22±0.87 SE ind. 100 km−2, which should be considered as an optimal density in a French Guiana coastal area.

Gray wolf mortality patterns in Wisconsin from 1979 to 2012

Starting in the 1970s, many populations of large-bodied mammalian carnivores began to recover from centuries of human-caused eradication and habitat destruction. The recovery of several such populations has since slowed or reversed due to mortality caused by humans. Illegal killing (poaching) is a primary cause of death in many carnivore populations. Law enforcement agencies face difficulties in preventing poaching and scientists face challenges in measuring it. Both challenges are exacerbated when evidence is concealed or ignored. We present data on deaths of 937 Wisconsin gray wolves (Canis lupus) from October 1979 to April 2012 during a period in which wolves were recolonizing historic range mainly under federal government protection. We found and partially remedied sampling and measurement biases in the source data by reexamining necropsy reports and reconstructing the numbers and causes of some wolf deaths that were never reported. From 431 deaths and disappearances of radiocollared wolves aged > 7.5 months, we estimated human causes accounted for two-thirds of reported and reconstructed deaths, including poaching in 39-45%, vehicle collisions in 13%, legal killing by state agents in 6%, and nonhuman causes in 36-42%. Our estimate of poaching remained an underestimate because of persistent sources of uncertainty and systematic underreporting. Unreported deaths accounted for over two-thirds of all mortality annually among wolves > 7.5 months old. One-half of all poached wolves went unreported, or > 80% of poached wolves not being monitored by radiotelemetry went unreported. The annual mortality rate averaged 18% ± 10% for monitored wolves but 47% ± 19% for unmonitored wolves. That difference appeared to be due largely to radiocollaring being concentrated in the core areas of wolf range, as well as higher rates of human-caused mortality in the periphery of wolf range. We detected an average 4% decline in wolf population growth in the last 5 years of the study. Because our estimates of poaching risk and overall mortality rate exceeded official estimates after 2012, we present all data for transparency and replication. More recent additions of public hunting quotas after 2012 appear unsustainable without effective curtailment of poaching. Effective antipoaching enforcement will require more accurate estimates of poaching rate, location, and timing than currently available. Independent scientific review of methods and data will improve antipoaching policies for large carnivore conservation, especially for controversial species facing high levels of human-induced mortality.

Predators and the public trust

Many democratic governments recognize a duty to conserve environmental resources, including wild animals, as a public trust for current and future citizens. These public trust principles have informed two centuries of U.S.A. Supreme Court decisions and environmental laws worldwide. Nevertheless numerous populations of large-bodied, mammalian carnivores (predators) were eradicated in the 20th century. Environmental movements and strict legal protections have fostered predator recoveries across the U.S.A. and Europe since the 1970s. Now subnational jurisdictions are regaining management authority from central governments for their predator subpopulations. Will the history of local eradication repeat or will these jurisdictions adopt public trust thinking and their obligation to broad public interests over narrower ones? We review the role of public trust principles in the restoration and preservation of controversial species. In so doing we argue for the essential roles of scientists from many disciplines concerned with biological diversity and its conservation. We look beyond species endangerment to future generations' interests in sustainability, particularly non-consumptive uses. Although our conclusions apply to all wild organisms, we focus on predators because of the particular challenges they pose for government trustees, trust managers, and society. Gray wolves Canis lupus L. deserve particular attention, because detailed information and abundant policy debates across regions have exposed four important challenges for preserving predators in the face of interest group hostility. One challenge is uncertainty and varied interpretations about public trustees' responsibilities for wildlife, which have created a mosaic of policies across jurisdictions. We explore how such mosaics have merits and drawbacks for biodiversity. The other three challenges to conserving wildlife as public trust assets are illuminated by the biology of predators and the interacting behavioural ecologies of humans and predators. The scientific community has not reached consensus on sustainable levels of human-caused mortality for many predator populations. This challenge includes both genuine conceptual uncertainty and exploitation of scientific debate for political gain. Second, human intolerance for predators exposes value conflicts about preferences for some wildlife over others and balancing majority rule with the protection of minorities in a democracy. We examine how differences between traditional assumptions and scientific studies of interactions between people and predators impede evidence-based policy. Even if the prior challenges can be overcome, well-reasoned policy on wild animals faces a greater challenge than other environmental assets because animals and humans change behaviour in response to each other in the short term. These coupled, dynamic responses exacerbate clashes between uses that deplete wildlife and uses that enhance or preserve wildlife. Viewed in this way, environmental assets demand sophisticated, careful accounting by disinterested trustees who can both understand the multidisciplinary scientific measurements of relative costs and benefits among competing uses, and justly balance the needs of all beneficiaries including future generations. Without public trust principles, future trustees will seldom prevail against narrow, powerful, and undemocratic interests. Without conservation informed by public trust thinking predator populations will face repeated cycles of eradication and recovery. Our conclusions have implications for the many subfields of the biological sciences that address environmental trust assets from the atmosphere to aquifers.

Indicators of success for smart law enforcement in protected areas: A case study for Russian Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) reserves

Although considerable conservation resources have been committed to develop and use law enforcement monitoring and management tools such as SMART, measures of success are ill-defined and, to date, few reports detail results post-implementation. Here, we present 4 case studies from protected areas with Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in Russia, in which indicators of success were defined and evaluated at each. The ultimate goal was an increase in tiger numbers to 1 individual/100 km(2) at each site. We predicted that improvements in law enforcement effectiveness would be followed by increases in prey numbers and, subsequently, tiger numbers. We used short-term and long-term indicators of success, including: (i) patrol team effort and effectiveness; (ii) catch per unit effort indicators (to measure reductions in threats); and (iii) changes in target species numbers. In addition to implementing a monitoring system, we focused on improving law enforcement management using an adaptive management process. Over 4 years, we noted clear increases in patrol effort and a partial reduction in threats. Although we did not detect clear trends in ungulate numbers, tiger populations remained stable or increased, suggesting that poaching of tigers may be more limiting than prey depletion. Increased effectiveness is needed before a clear reduction in threats can be noted, and more time is needed before detecting responses in target populations. Nonetheless, delineation of concrete goals and indicators of success provide a means of evaluating progress and weaknesses. Such monitoring should be a central component of law enforcement strategies for protected areas.

Dynamics of a low-density tiger population in Southeast Asia in the context of improved law enforcement

Recovering small populations of threatened species is an important global conservation strategy. Monitoring the anticipated recovery, however, often relies on uncertain abundance indices rather than on rigorous demographic estimates. To counter the severe threat from poaching of wild tigers (Panthera tigris), the Government of Thailand established an intensive patrolling system in 2005 to protect and recover its largest source population in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary. Concurrently, we assessed the dynamics of this tiger population over the next 8 years with rigorous photographic capture-recapture methods. From 2006 to 2012, we sampled across 624-1026 km(2) with 137-200 camera traps. Cameras deployed for 21,359 trap days yielded photographic records of 90 distinct individuals. We used closed model Bayesian spatial capture-recapture methods to estimate tiger abundances annually. Abundance estimates were integrated with likelihood-based open model analyses to estimate rates of annual and overall rates of survival, recruitment, and changes in abundance. Estimates of demographic parameters fluctuated widely: annual density ranged from 1.25 to 2.01 tigers/100 km(2) , abundance from 35 to 58 tigers, survival from 79.6% to 95.5%, and annual recruitment from 0 to 25 tigers. The number of distinct individuals photographed demonstrates the value of photographic capture-recapture methods for assessments of population dynamics in rare and elusive species that are identifiable from natural markings. Possibly because of poaching pressure, overall tiger densities at Huai Kha Khaeng were 82-90% lower than in ecologically comparable sites in India. However, intensified patrolling after 2006 appeared to reduce poaching and was correlated with marginal improvement in tiger survival and recruitment. Our results suggest that population recovery of low-density tiger populations may be slower than anticipated by current global strategies aimed at doubling the number of wild tigers in a decade.

Detection of Hepatozoon felis in Ticks Collected from Free-Ranging Amur Tigers ( Panthera tigris altaica), Russian Far East, 2002-12

We collected 69 ticks from nine, free-ranging Amur tigers ( Panthera tigris altaica) between 2002 and 2011 and investigated them for tick-borne pathogens. DNA was extracted using alkaline digestion and PCR was performed to detect apicomplexan organisms. Partial 18S rDNA amplification products were obtained from 14 ticks from four tigers, of which 13 yielded unambiguous nucleotide sequence data. Comparative sequence analysis revealed all 13 partial 18S rDNA sequences were most similar to those belonging to strains of Hepatozoon felis (>564/572 base-pair identity, >99% sequence similarity). Although this tick-borne protozoon pathogen has been detected in wild felids from many parts of the world, this is the first record from the Russian Far East.

Ranging, Activity and Habitat Use by Tigers in the Mangrove Forests of the Sundarban

The Sundarban of India and Bangladesh (about 6000 km²) are the only mangrove forests inhabited by a sizeable population of tigers. The adjoining area also supports one of the highest human densities and experiences severe human-tiger conflicts. We used GPS-Satellite and VHF radio-collars on 6 (3 males and 3 female) tigers to study their ranging patterns and habitat preference. The average home range (95% Fixed Kernel) for resident females was 56.4 (SE 5.69) and for males it was 110 (SE 49) km². Tigers crossed an average of 5 water channels > 30 meters per day with a mean width of 54 meters, whereas channels larger than 400 meters were rarely crossed. Tigers spent over 58% of their time within Phoenix habitat but compositional analysis showed a habitat preference of the order Avicennia-Sonneratia > Phoenix > Ceriops > Barren > Water. Average daily distance moved was 4.6 km (range 0.1–23). Activity of tigers peaked between 05:00 hours and 10:00 hours showing some overlap with human activity. Territory boundaries were demarcated by large channels which tigers intensively patrolled. Extra caution should be taken while fishing or honey collection during early morning in Avicennia-Sonneratia and Phoenix habitat types along wide channels to reduce human-tiger conflict. Considering home-range core areas as exclusive, tiger density was estimated at 4.6 (SE range 3.6 to 6.7) tigers/100 km² giving a total population of 76 (SE range 59–110) tigers in the Indian Sundarban. Reluctance of tigers to cross wide water channels combined with increasing commercial boat traffic and sea level rise due to climate change pose a real threat of fragmenting the Sundarban tiger population.

Social structure and space use of Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in Southern Russian Far East based on GPS telemetry data

To better understand the spatial structure of Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) at the southern edge of their range we fitted 14 tigers (6♀♀ and 8♂♂) with 15 GPS-Argos collars between 2008 and 2011 in 2 study sites: the Ussuriskii Reserve of southern Sikhote-Alin and the Land of the Leopard National Park in southwest Primorye, Russian Far East. Fixed kernel estimates of male home ranges were larger than those of female home ranges (P < 0.05 [mean 95% fixed kernel(♀) = 401 ± 205 km(2) ; mean 95% fixed kernel(♂) = 778 ± 267 km(2)]). The home range size of females varied greatly, but on average was similar to estimates derived from earlier work further north. Low overlap of adjacent home ranges suggested that females retained exclusive territories. Real core areas of females overlapped only slightly, and remained stable over multiple years. The home ranges of adult males were smaller than those of males to the north, and in contrast to previous studies, high overlap among males indicated the absence of territoriality. Nonetheless, real core areas of males did not overlap, suggesting some spatial separation. In comparison to other tiger populations and other areas of the Russian Far East, the sex ratio in our 2 study areas was highly skewed towards males. We believe this skewed sex ratio resulted in the dissolution of territoriality of males due to an inability to defend individual females, with males resorting to scramble competition for mates. Continued monitoring of these sites to determine whether shifts in the sex ratio might result in a return to male territoriality would provide confirmation of our tentative hypothesis.

Diseases of Free-Ranging Snow Leopards and Primary Prey Species

Although a wide range of diseases have been reported in captive snow leopards, little is known about those affecting the species in the wild. However, the potential threat from diseases to wild snow leopards must not be underestimated as a consequence of lack of health surveillance throughout the inaccessible terrains they occupy. As a felid, the snow leopard is likely to be susceptible to most infectious agents affecting the domestic cat, and here we provide an overview of those with a risk of lethality for free-ranging snow leopards. In contrast to the health of snow leopards themselves, a great deal is known about the diseases affecting their primary prey species. We present these cases and highlight the importance of livestock as the main source of disease spillover to natural prey species. Further studies are required to understand the impact of infectious agents on intra- and interspecific population dynamics of snow leopards and associated prey.

Hunting, Exotic Carnivores, and Habitat Loss: Anthropogenic Effects on a Native Carnivore Community, Madagascar

The wide-ranging, cumulative, negative effects of anthropogenic disturbance, including habitat degradation, exotic species, and hunting, on native wildlife has been well documented across a range of habitats worldwide with carnivores potentially being the most vulnerable due to their more extinction prone characteristics. Investigating the effects of anthropogenic pressures on sympatric carnivores is needed to improve our ability to develop targeted, effective management plans for carnivore conservation worldwide. Utilizing photographic, line-transect, and habitat sampling, as well as landscape analyses and village-based bushmeat hunting surveys, we provide the first investigation of how multiple forms of habitat degradation (fragmentation, exotic carnivores, human encroachment, and hunting) affect carnivore occupancy across Madagascar's largest protected area: the Masoala-Makira landscape. We found that as degradation increased, native carnivore occupancy and encounter rates decreased while exotic carnivore occupancy and encounter rates increased. Feral cats (Felis species) and domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) had higher occupancy than half of the native carnivore species across Madagascar's largest protected landscape. Bird and small mammal encounter rates were negatively associated with exotic carnivore occupancy, but positively associated with the occupancy of four native carnivore species. Spotted fanaloka (Fossa fossana) occupancy was constrained by the presence of exotic feral cats and exotic small Indian civet (Viverricula indica). Hunting was intense across the four study sites where hunting was studied, with the highest rates for the small Indian civet (mean=90 individuals consumed/year), the ring-tailed vontsira (Galidia elegans) (mean=58 consumed/year), and the fosa (Cryptoprocta ferox) (mean=31 consumed/year). Our modeling results suggest hunters target intact forest where carnivore occupancy, abundance, and species richness, are highest. These various anthropogenic pressures and their effects on carnivore populations, especially increases in exotic carnivores and hunting, have wide-ranging, global implications and demand effective management plans to target the influx of exotic carnivores and unsustainable hunting that is affecting carnivore populations across Madagascar and worldwide.

Estimating the potential impact of canine distemper virus on the Amur tiger population (Panthera tigris altaica) in Russia

Lethal infections with canine distemper virus (CDV) have recently been diagnosed in Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica), but long-term implications for the population are unknown. This study evaluates the potential impact of CDV on a key tiger population in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), and assesses how CDV might influence the extinction potential of other tiger populations of varying sizes. An individual-based stochastic, SIRD (susceptible-infected-recovered/dead) model was used to simulate infection through predation of infected domestic dogs, and/or wild carnivores, and direct tiger-to-tiger transmission. CDV prevalence and effective contact based on published and observed data was used to define plausible low- and high-risk infection scenarios. CDV infection increased the 50-year extinction probability of tigers in SABZ by 6.3% to 55.8% compared to a control population, depending on risk scenario. The most significant factors influencing model outcome were virus prevalence in the reservoir population(s) and its effective contact rate with tigers. Adjustment of the mortality rate had a proportional impact, while inclusion of epizootic infection waves had negligible additional impact. Small populations were found to be disproportionately vulnerable to extinction through CDV infection. The 50-year extinction risk in populations consisting of 25 individuals was 1.65 times greater when CDV was present than that of control populations. The effects of density dependence do not protect an endangered population from the impacts of a multi-host pathogen, such as CDV, where they coexist with an abundant reservoir presenting a persistent threat. Awareness of CDV is a critical component of a successful tiger conservation management policy.

Vigorous dynamics underlie a stable population of the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia

Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+-0.25). Comparison of model results with the "known population" of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+-0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+-0.15) and 0.77 (SE +-0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +-0.19 and 0.68, SE +-0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+-0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.

Panel of polymorphic heterologous microsatellite loci to genotype critically endangered Bengal tiger: a pilot study

In India, six landscapes and source populations that are important for long-term conservation of Bengal tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) have been identified. Except for a few studies, nothing is known regarding the genetic structure and extent of gene flow among most of the tiger populations across India as the majority of them are small, fragmented and isolated. Thus, individual-based relationships are required to understand the species ecology and biology for planning effective conservation and genetics-based individual identification has been widely used. But this needs screening and describing characteristics of microsatellite loci from DNA from good-quality sources so that the required number of loci can be selected and the genotyping error rate minimized. In the studies so far conducted on the Bengal tiger, a very small number of loci (n = 35) have been tested with high-quality source of DNA, and information on locus-specific characteristics is lacking. The use of such characteristics has been strongly recommended in the literature to minimize the error rate and by the International Society for Forensic Genetics (ISFG) for forensic purposes. Therefore, we describe for the first time locus-specific genetic and genotyping profile characteristics, crucial for population genetic studies, using high-quality source of DNA of the Bengal tiger. We screened 39 heterologous microsatellite loci (Sumatran tiger, domestic cat, Asiatic lion and snow leopard) in captive individuals (n = 8), of which 21 loci are being reported for the first time in the Bengal tiger, providing an additional choice for selection. The mean relatedness coefficient (R = -0.143) indicates that the selected tigers were unrelated. Thirty-four loci were polymorphic, with the number of alleles ranging from 2 to 7 per locus, and the remaining five loci were monomorphic. Based on the PIC values (> 0.500), and other characteristics, we suggest that 16 loci (3 to 7 alleles) be used for genetic and forensic study purposes. The probabilities of matching genotypes of unrelated individuals (3.692 × 10(-19)) and siblings (4.003 × 10(-6)) are within the values needed for undertaking studies in population genetics, relatedness, sociobiology and forensics.