Climate change and the ecology and evolution of Arctic vertebrates

Animal migration in the Anthropocene: threats and mitigation options

Animal migration has fascinated scientists and the public alike for centuries, yet migratory animals are facing diverse threats that could lead to their demise. The Anthropocene is characterised by the reality that humans are the dominant force on Earth, having manifold negative effects on biodiversity and ecosystem function. Considerable research focus has been given to assessing anthropogenic impacts on the numerical abundance of species/populations, whereas relatively less attention has been devoted to animal migration. However, there are clear linkages, for example, where human-driven impacts on migration behaviour can lead to population/species declines or even extinction. Here, we explore anthropogenic threats to migratory animals (in all domains - aquatic, terrestrial, and aerial) using International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Threat Taxonomy classifications. We reveal the diverse threats (e.g. human development, disease, invasive species, climate change, exploitation, pollution) that impact migratory wildlife in varied ways spanning taxa, life stages and type of impact (e.g. from direct mortality to changes in behaviour, health, and physiology). Notably, these threats often interact in complex and unpredictable ways to the detriment of wildlife, further complicating management. Fortunately, we are beginning to identify strategies for conserving and managing migratory animals in the Anthropocene. We provide a set of strategies that, if embraced, have the potential to ensure that migratory animals, and the important ecological functions sustained by migration, persist.

An arctic breeding songbird overheats during intense activity even at low air temperatures

Birds maintain some of the highest body temperatures among endothermic animals. Often deemed a selective advantage for heat tolerance, high body temperatures also limits birds' thermal safety margin before reaching lethal levels. Recent modelling suggests that sustained effort in Arctic birds might be restricted at mild air temperatures, which may require reductions in activity to avoid overheating, with expected negative impacts on reproductive performance. We measured within-individual changes in body temperature in calm birds and then in response to an experimental increase in activity in an outdoor captive population of Arctic, cold-specialised snow buntings (Plectrophenax nivalis), exposed to naturally varying air temperatures (- 15 to 36 °C). Calm buntings exhibited a modal body temperature range from 39.9 to 42.6 °C. However, we detected a significant increase in body temperature within minutes of shifting calm birds to active flight, with strong evidence for a positive effect of air temperature on body temperature (slope = 0.04 °C/ °C). Importantly, by an ambient temperature of 9 °C, flying buntings were already generating body temperatures ≥ 45 °C, approaching the upper thermal limits of organismal performance (45-47 °C). With known limited evaporative heat dissipation capacities in these birds, our results support the recent prediction that free-living buntings operating at maximal sustainable rates will increasingly need to rely on behavioural thermoregulatory strategies to regulate body temperature, to the detriment of nestling growth and survival.

Rare bird forecast: A combined approach using a long-term dataset of an Arctic seabird and a numerical weather prediction model

Wildlife observation is a popular activity, and sightings of rare or difficult-to-find animals are often highly desired. However, predicting the sighting probabilities of these animals is a challenge for many observers, and it may only be possible by limited experts with intimate knowledge and skills. To tackle this difficulty, we developed user-friendly forecast systems of the daily observation probabilities of a rare Arctic seabird (Ross's Gull Rhodostethia rosea) in a coastal area in northern Japan. Using a dataset gathered during 16 successive winters, we applied a machine learning technique of self-organizing maps and explored how days with gull sightings were related to the meteorological pressure patterns over the Sea of Okhotsk (Method A). We also built a regression model that explains the relationship between gull sightings and local-scale environmental factors (Method B). We then applied these methods with the operational global numerical weather prediction model (a computer simulation application about the fluid dynamics of Earth's atmosphere) to forecast the daily observation probabilities of our target. Method A demonstrated a strong dependence of gull sightings on the 16 representative weather patterns and forecasted stepwise observation probabilities ranging from 0% to 85.7%. Method B also showed that the strength of the northerly wind and the advancement of the season explained gull sightings and forecasted continuous observation probabilities ranging from 0% to 95.5%. Applying these two methods with the operational global numerical weather prediction model successfully forecasted the varied observation probabilities of Ross's Gull from 1 to 5 days ahead from November to February. A 2-year follow-up observation also validated both forecast systems to be effective for successful observation, especially when both systems forecasted higher observation probabilities. The developed forecast systems would therefore allow cost-effective animal observation and may facilitate a better experience for a variety of wildlife observers.

Double jeopardy: global change and interspecies competition threaten Siberian cranes

Anthropogenic global change is precipitating a worldwide biodiversity crisis, with myriad species teetering on the brink of extinction. The Arctic, a fragile ecosystem already on the frontline of global change, bears witness to rapid ecological transformations catalyzed by escalating temperatures. In this context, we explore the ramifications of global change and interspecies competition on two arctic crane species: the critically endangered Siberian crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus) and the non-threatened sandhill crane (Grus canadensis). How might global climate and landcover changes affect the range dynamics of Siberian cranes and sandhill cranes in the Arctic, potentially leading to increased competition and posing a greater threat to the critically endangered Siberian cranes? To answer these questions, we integrated ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to predict breeding distributions, considering both abiotic and biotic factors. Our results reveal a profound divergence in how global change impacts these crane species. Siberian cranes are poised to lose a significant portion of their habitats, while sandhill cranes are projected to experience substantial range expansion. Furthermore, we identify a growing overlap in breeding areas, intensifying interspecies competition, which may imperil the Siberian crane. Notably, we found the Anzhu Islands may become a Siberian crane refuge under global change, but competition with Sandhill Cranes underscores the need for enhanced conservation management. Our study underscores the urgency of considering species responses to global changes and interspecies dynamics in risk assessments and conservation management. As anthropogenic pressures continue to mount, such considerations are crucial for the preservation of endangered species in the face of impending global challenges.

Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold-adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America

Global climate change has been identified as a potential driver of observed insect declines, yet in many regions, there are critical data gaps that make it difficult to assess how communities are responding to climate change. Poleward regions are of particular interest because warming is most rapid while biodiversity data are most sparse. Building on recent advances in occupancy modeling of presence-only data, we reconstructed 50 years (1970-2019) of butterfly occupancy trends in response to rising minimum temperatures in one of the most under-sampled regions of North America. Among 90 modeled species, we found that cold-adapted species are far more often in decline compared with their warm-adapted, more southernly distributed counterparts. Furthermore, in a post hoc analysis using species' traits, we find that species' range-wide average annual temperature is the only consistent predictor of occupancy changes. Species with warmer ranges were most likely to be increasing in occupancy. This trend results in the majority of butterflies increasing in occupancy probability over the last 50 years. Our results provide the first look at macroscale butterfly biodiversity shifts in high-latitude North America. These results highlight the potential of leveraging the wealth of presence-only data, the most abundant source of biodiversity data, for inferring changes in species distributions.

Impact of anthropogenous environmental factors on the marine ecosystem of trophically transmitted helminths and hosting seabirds: Focus on North Atlantic, North Sea, Baltic and the Arctic seas

Alongside natural factors, human activities have a major impact on the marine environment and thus influence processes in vulnerable ecosystems. The major purpose of this review is to summarise the current understanding as to how manmade factors influence the marine biocenosis of helminths, their intermediate hosts as well as seabirds as their final hosts. Moreover, it highlights current knowledge gaps regarding this ecosystem, which should be closed in order to gain a more complete understanding of these interactions. This work is primarily focused on helminths parasitizing seabirds of the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The complex life cycles of seabird helminths may be impacted by fishing and aquaculture, as they interfere with the abundance of fish and seabird species, while the latter also affects the geographical distribution of intermediate hosts (marine bivalve and fish species), and may therefore alter the intertwined marine ecosystem. Increasing temperatures and seawater acidification as well as environmental pollutants may have negative or positive effects on different parts of this interactive ecosystem and may entail shifts in the abundance or regional distribution of parasites and/or intermediate and final hosts. Organic pollutants and trace elements may weaken the immune system of the hosting seabirds and hence affect the final host's ability to control the endoparasites. On the other hand, in some cases helminths seem to function as a sink for trace elements resulting in decreased concentrations of heavy metals in birds' tissues. Furthermore, this article also describes the role of helminths in mass mortality events amongst seabird populations, which beside natural causes (weather, viral and bacterial infections) have anthropogenous origin as well (e.g. oil spills, climate change, overfishing and environmental pollution).

Spatiotemporal and Individual Patterns of Domestic Cat (Felis catus) Hunting Behaviour in France

Domestic cats (Felis catus), one of the most popular pets, are widespread worldwide. This medium-sized carnivore has well-known negative effects on biodiversity, but there is still a need to better understand the approximate causes of their predation. Based on a citizen science project, we assessed the role of spatiotemporal (i.e., latitude, longitude, and seasons), climatic (i.e., rainfall), anthropogenic (i.e., human footprint, HFI), and individual (i.e., sex and age) variables on the number of preys returned home by cats in metropolitan France. Over the 5048 cats monitored between 2015 and 2022, prey from 12 different classes (n = 36,568) were returned home: 68% mammals, 21% birds, and 8% squamates. Shrews brought home by cats peaked during summer, while rodents were recorded during summer-autumn. Birds brought home by cats peaked in spring-summer and in autumn, and lizards peaked in spring and in late summer. Lower HFI was associated with more voles and mice brought home, and the opposite trend was observed for lizards and birds. Younger cats were more prone to bring home shrews, birds, and reptiles. Although environmental factors play a minor role in prey brought home by cats, some geographical characteristics of prey species distribution partly explains the hunting behaviour of cats.

Impact of Holocene environmental change on the evolutionary ecology of an Arctic top predator

The Arctic is among the most climatically sensitive environments on Earth, and the disappearance of multiyear sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is predicted within decades. As apex predators, polar bears are sentinel species for addressing the impact of environmental variability on Arctic marine ecosystems. By integrating genomics, isotopic analysis, morphometrics, and ecological modeling, we investigate how Holocene environmental changes affected polar bears around Greenland. We uncover reductions in effective population size coinciding with increases in annual mean sea surface temperature, reduction in sea ice cover, declines in suitable habitat, and shifts in suitable habitat northward. Furthermore, we show that west and east Greenlandic polar bears are morphologically, and ecologically distinct, putatively driven by regional biotic and genetic differences. Together, we provide insights into the vulnerability of polar bears to environmental change and how the Arctic marine ecosystem plays a vital role in shaping the evolutionary and ecological trajectories of its inhabitants.

Adaptation to the High-Arctic island environment despite long-term reduced genetic variation in Svalbard reindeer

Typically much smaller in number than their mainland counterparts, island populations are ideal systems to investigate genetic threats to small populations. The Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) is an endemic subspecies that colonized the Svalbard archipelago ca. 6,000-8,000 years ago and now shows numerous physiological and morphological adaptations to its arctic habitat. Here, we report a de-novo chromosome-level assembly for Svalbard reindeer and analyze 133 reindeer genomes spanning Svalbard and most of the species' Holarctic range, to examine the genomic consequences of long-term isolation and small population size in this insular subspecies. Empirical data, demographic reconstructions, and forward simulations show that long-term isolation and high inbreeding levels may have facilitated the reduction of highly deleterious-and to a lesser extent, moderately deleterious-variation. Our study indicates that long-term reduced genetic diversity did not preclude local adaptation to the High Arctic, suggesting that even severely bottlenecked populations can retain evolutionary potential.

Oxidative physiology of two small and highly migratory Arctic seabirds: Arctic terns (Sterna paradisaea) and long-tailed jaegers (Stercorarius longicaudus)

Arctic ecosystems are changing rapidly. The tundra supports nesting migratory seabirds that spend most of their year over the ocean. Migrations are demanding, but it is unclear how physiological capability may equip organisms to respond to their changing environments. For two migratory seabird species nesting in Alaska, USA, the Arctic tern (n = 10) and the long-tailed jaeger (n = 8), we compared oxidative physiology and aerobic capacity measured during incubation and we recorded individual movement paths using electronic tracking tags. Within species, we hypothesized that individuals with longer-distance migrations would show higher oxidative stress and display better aerobic capacity than shorter-distance migrants. We examined blood parameters relative to subsequent fall migration in jaegers and relative to previous spring migration in terns. We present the first measurements of oxidative stress in these species and the first migratory movements of long-tailed jaegers in the Pacific Ocean. Arctic terns displayed positive correlation of oxidative variables, or better integration than jaegers. Relative to physiological sampling, pre-breeding northward migration data were available for terns and post-breeding southward data were available for jaegers. Terns reached a farther maximum distance from the colony than jaegers (16 199 ± 275 km versus 10 947 ± 950 km) and rate of travel northward (447 ± 41.8 km/day) was positively correlated with hematocrit, but we found no other relationships. In jaegers, there were no relationships between individuals' physiology and southward rate of travel (193 ± 52.3 km/day) or migratory distance. While it is not clear whether the much longer migrations of the terns is related to their better integration, or to another factor, our results spark hypotheses that could be evaluated through a controlled phylogenetic study. Species with better integration may be less susceptible to environmental factors that increase oxidative stress, including thermal challenges or changes in prey distribution as the Arctic climate changes rapidly.

Rapid formation of new migration route and breeding area by Arctic geese

Many Arctic-breeding animals are at risk from local extirpation associated with habitat constriction and alterations in phenology in their Arctic environment as a result of rapid global warming.¹ Migratory species face additional increasing anthropogenic pressures along their migratory routes such as habitat destruction, droughts, creation of barriers, and overexploitation.^2,3 Such species can only persist if they adjust their migration, timing of breeding, and range.⁴ Here, we document both the abrupt (∼10 years) formation of a new migration route and a disjunct breeding population of the pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) on Novaya Zemlya, Russia, almost 1,000 km away from the original breeding grounds in Svalbard. The population has grown to 3,000-4,000 birds, explained by intrinsic growth and continued immigration from the original route. The colonization was enabled by recent warming on Novaya Zemlya. We propose that social behavior of geese, resulting in cultural transmission of migration behavior among conspecifics as well as in mixed-species flocks, is key to this fast development and acts as a mechanism enabling ecological rescue in a rapidly changing world.

Selection-driven adaptation to the extreme Antarctic environment in the Emperor penguin

The eco-evolutionary history of penguins is characterised by shifting from temperate to cold environments. Breeding in Antarctica, the Emperor penguin appears as an extreme outcome of this process, with unique features related to insulation, heat production and energy management. However, whether this species actually diverged from a less cold-adapted ancestor, more ecologically similar to its sister species, the King penguin, is still an open question. As the Antarctic colonisation likely resulted in vast changes in selective pressure experienced by the Emperor penguin, the relative quantification of the genomic signatures of selection, unique to each sister species, could answer this question. Applying phylogeny-based selection tests on 7651 orthologous genes, we identified a more pervasive selection shift in the Emperor penguin than in the King penguin, supporting the hypothesis that its extreme cold adaptation is a derived state. Furthermore, among candidate genes under selection, four (TRPM8, LEPR, CRB1, and SFI1) were identified before in other cold-adapted homeotherms, like the woolly Mammoth, while other 161 genes can be assigned to biological functions relevant to cold adaptation identified in previous studies. Location and structural effects of TRPM8 substitutions in Emperor and King penguin lineages support their functional role with putative divergent effects on thermal adaptation. We conclude that extreme cold adaptation in the Emperor penguin largely involved unique genetic options which, however, affect metabolic and physiological traits common to other cold-adapted homeotherms.

Vertebrate Phenological Plasticity: from Molecular Mechanisms to Ecological and Evolutionary Implications

Seasonal variation in the availability of essential resources is one of the most important drivers of natural selection on the phasing and duration of annually recurring life-cycle events. Shifts in seasonal timing are among the most commonly reported responses to climate change and the capacity of organisms to adjust their timing, either through phenotypic plasticity or evolution, is a critical component of resilience. Despite growing interest in documenting and forecasting the impacts of climate change on phenology, our ability to predict how individuals, populations, and species might alter their seasonal timing in response to their changing environments is constrained by limited knowledge regarding the cues animals use to adjust timing, the endogenous genetic and molecular mechanisms that transduce cues into neural and endocrine signals, and the inherent capacity of animals to alter their timing and phasing within annual cycles. Further, the fitness consequences of phenological responses are often due to biotic interactions within and across trophic levels, rather than being simple outcomes of responses to changes in the abiotic environment. Here, we review the current state of knowledge regarding the mechanisms that control seasonal timing in vertebrates, as well as the ecological and evolutionary consequences of individual, population, and species-level variation in phenological responsiveness. Understanding the causes and consequences of climate-driven phenological shifts requires combining ecological, evolutionary, and mechanistic approaches at individual, populational, and community scales. Thus, to make progress in forecasting phenological responses and demographic consequences, we need to further develop interdisciplinary networks focused on climate change science.

Increasing Arctic Tundra Flooding Threatens Wildlife Habitat and Survival: Impacts on the Critically Endangered Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus)

Climate change is causing Arctic temperatures to increase at least twice as fast as the planet on average. Temperature and precipitation are predicted to continue increasing, such that flooding might become more prevalent in the new Arctic. Increased flooding frequency and extreme flooding events may pose new threats to Arctic biodiversity through habitat disturbance and decreased survival. We used the Siberian crane (Grus leucogeranus) as a model organism to investigate how flooding influences nesting habitat availability and juvenile counts. When spring flooding destroys eggs, adults either do not raise any chicks or have reduced time to prepare them for their long migration to China, thus years with extensive flooding could negatively impact future crane generations. We used nest site observation data from 14 surveys between 1995 and 2019, habitat mapping based on Landsat 8 imagery, and species distribution modeling to predict Siberian crane potential nesting habitat. Nesting habitat loss due to extreme flooding was calculated by overlaying this potential nesting habitat with Global Surface Water data. The percent of potential flooded nest sites varied between 6.7–55% across years, with a significant increase between 2001 and 2018. Extreme flood events, as experienced in 2017 and 2018, eliminated almost half of the potential nesting habitat. Importantly, we found that the percentage of flooded nest sites across years was negatively correlated with the number of observed juveniles. The Arctic lowlands are exposed to seasonal water level fluctuations that species have evolved with and adapted to. Siberian cranes and other species depending on Arctic ecosystems are expected to continue adapting to changing flood conditions, but extreme flood events further threaten the long-term survival of critically endangered species. It is imperative to assess how ecosystems and species respond to climatic extremes to support Arctic conservation strategies.

Searching for genetic evidence of demographic decline in an arctic seabird: beware of overlapping generations

Genetic data are useful for detecting sudden population declines in species that are difficult to study in the field. Yet this indirect approach has its own drawbacks, including population structure, mutation patterns, and generation overlap. The ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea), a long-lived Arctic seabird, is currently suffering from rapid alteration of its primary habitat (i.e., sea ice), and dramatic climatic events affecting reproduction and recruitment. However, ivory gulls live in remote areas, and it is difficult to assess the population trend of the species across its distribution. Here we present complementary microsatellite- and SNP-based genetic analyses to test a recent bottleneck genetic signal in ivory gulls over a large portion of their distribution. With attention to the potential effects of population structure, mutation patterns, and sample size, we found no significant signatures of population decline worldwide. At a finer scale, we found a significant bottleneck signal at one location in Canada. These results were compared with predictions from simulations showing how generation time and generation overlap can delay and reduce the bottleneck microsatellite heterozygosity excess signal. The consistency of the results obtained with independent methods strongly indicates that the species shows no genetic evidence of an overall decline in population size. However, drawing conclusions related to the species' population trends will require a better understanding of the effect of age structure in long-lived species. In addition, estimates of the effective global population size of ivory gulls were surprisingly low (~1000 ind.), suggesting that the evolutionary potential of the species is not assured.

Sympatrically breeding congeneric seabirds (Stercorarius spp.) from Arctic Canada migrate to four oceans

Polar systems of avian migration remain unpredictable. For seabirds nesting in the Nearctic, it is often difficult to predict which of the world's oceans birds will migrate to after breeding. Here, we report on three related seabird species that migrated across four oceans following sympatric breeding at a central Canadian high Arctic nesting location. Using telemetry, we tracked pomarine jaeger (Stercorarius pomarinus, n = 1) across the Arctic Ocean to the western Pacific Ocean; parasitic jaeger (S. parasiticus, n = 4) to the western Atlantic Ocean, and long-tailed jaeger (S. longicaudus, n = 2) to the eastern Atlantic Ocean and western Indian Ocean. We also report on extensive nomadic movements over ocean during the postbreeding period (19,002 km) and over land and ocean during the prebreeding period (5578 km) by pomarine jaeger, an irruptive species whose full migrations and nomadic behavior have been a mystery. While the small sample sizes in our study limit the ability to make generalizable inferences, our results provide a key input to the knowledge of jaeger migrations. Understanding the routes and migratory divides of birds nesting in the Arctic region has implications for understanding both the glacial refugia of the past and the Anthropocene-driven changes in the future.

Understanding the dynamics of Arctic animal migrations in a changing world

This is submitted as an introduction to the special collection on, “Arctic Migrations in a Changing World”.

Life-history attributes of Arctic-breeding birds drive uneven responses to environmental variability across different phases of the reproductive cycle

Animals exhibit varied life-history traits that reflect adaptive responses to their environments. For Arctic-breeding birds, traits related to diet, egg nutrient allocation, clutch size, and chick growth are predicted to be under increasing selection pressure due to rapid climate change and increasing environmental variability across high-latitude regions. We compared four migratory birds (black brant [Branta bernicla nigricans], lesser snow geese [Chen caerulescens caerulescens], semipalmated sandpipers [Calidris pusilla], and Lapland longspurs [Calcarius lapponicus]) with varied life histories at an Arctic site in Alaska, USA, to understand how life-history traits help moderate environmental variability across different phases of the reproductive cycle. We monitored aspects of reproductive performance related to the timing of breeding, reproductive investment, and chick growth from 2011 to 2018. In response to early snowmelt and warm temperatures, semipalmated sandpipers advanced their site arrival and bred in higher numbers, while brant and snow geese increased clutch sizes; all four species advanced their nest initiation dates. During chick rearing, longspur nestlings were relatively resilient to environmental variation, whereas warmer temperatures increased the growth rates of sandpiper chicks but reduced growth rates of snow goose goslings. These responses generally aligned with traits along the capital-income spectrum of nutrient acquisition and altricial-precocial modes of chick growth. Under a warming climate, the ability to mobilize endogenous reserves likely provides geese with relative flexibility to adjust the timing of breeding and the size of clutches. Higher temperatures, however, may negatively affect the quality of herbaceous foods and slow gosling growth. Species may possess traits that are beneficial during one phase of the reproductive cycle and others that may be detrimental at another phase, uneven responses that may be amplified with future climate warming. These results underscore the need to consider multiple phases of the reproductive cycle when assessing the effects of environmental variability on Arctic-breeding birds.

Hatching phenology is lagging behind an advancing snowmelt pattern in a high-alpine bird

To track peaks in resource abundance, temperate-zone animals use predictive environmental cues to rear their offspring when conditions are most favourable. However, climate change threatens the reliability of such cues when an animal and its resource respond differently to a changing environment. This is especially problematic in alpine environments, where climate warming exceeds the Holarctic trend and may thus lead to rapid asynchrony between peaks in resource abundance and periods of increased resource requirements such as reproductive period of high-alpine specialists. We therefore investigated interannual variation and long-term trends in the breeding phenology of a high-alpine specialist, the white-winged snowfinch, Montifringilla nivalis, using a 20-year dataset from Switzerland. We found that two thirds of broods hatched during snowmelt. Hatching dates positively correlated with April and May precipitation, but changes in mean hatching dates did not coincide with earlier snowmelt in recent years. Our results offer a potential explanation for recently observed population declines already recognisable at lower elevations. We discuss non-adaptive phenotypic plasticity as a potential cause for the asynchrony between changes in snowmelt and hatching dates of snowfinches, but the underlying causes are subject to further research.

Climate change impacts on seabirds and marine mammals: The importance of study duration, thermal tolerance and generation time

Understanding climate change impacts on top predators is fundamental to marine biodiversity conservation, due to their increasingly threatened populations and their importance in marine ecosystems. We conducted a systematic review of the effects of climate change (prolonged, directional change) and climate variability on seabirds and marine mammals. We extracted data from 484 studies (4808 published studies were reviewed), comprising 2215 observations on demography, phenology, distribution, diet, behaviour, body condition and physiology. The likelihood of concluding that climate change had an impact increased with study duration. However, the temporal thresholds for the effects of climate change to be discernibly varied from 10 to 29 years depending on the species, the biological response and the oceanic study region. Species with narrow thermal ranges and relatively long generation times were more often reported to be affected by climate change. This provides an important framework for future assessments, with guidance on response- and region-specific temporal dimensions that need to be considered when reporting effects of climate change. Finally, we found that tropical regions and non-breeding life stages were poorly covered in the literature, a concern that should be addressed to enable a better understanding of the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change.

Arctic fox winter dietary response to damped lemming cycles estimated from fecal DNA

Climate-caused changes in prey abundance may alter predator–prey dynamics in the Arctic food web. Lemmings (Dicrostonyx spp.) are important prey for Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) and their annual population fluctuations drive fox reproduction, creating strongly linked predator–prey population cycles. Winter diet directly impacts Arctic fox reproductive success, but winter prey diversity on the tundra is low. Strategies such as using the marine environment to scavenge seals have allowed Arctic foxes to persist during years of low lemming abundance. However, warming winters have decreased snowpack quality, preventing lemmings from reaching their previous high abundances, which may reduce their impact on predator dynamics. We investigated Arctic fox dietary response to lemming abundance by reconstructing Arctic fox winter diet in the low Arctic. Next-generation sequencing of fecal DNA, from samples (n = 627) collected at dens in winters of 2011–2018, identified prey both from terrestrial and marine environments. Despite lemming cycle damping, Arctic foxes still increased lemming consumption during years of higher lemming abundance. Alternative prey such as marine resources were consumed more during years of low lemming abundance, with up to 45% of samples containing marine resources in low lemming years. In addition, Arctic foxes consumed high proportions of meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus), which may represent a new alternative prey, suggesting climate change may be creating new foraging opportunities. Changes in prey abundance illustrate how climate-caused disturbances are altering Arctic food-web dynamics. Dietary flexibility and availability of alternative prey may become increasingly important for Arctic predators as the Arctic continues to change.

Animal migration to northern latitudes: environmental changes and increasing threats

Every year, many wild animals undertake long-distance migration to breed in the north, taking advantage of seasonally high pulses in food supply, fewer parasites, and lower predation pressure in comparison with equatorial latitudes. Growing evidence suggests that climate-change-induced phenological mismatches have reduced food availability. Furthermore, novel pathogens and parasites are spreading northwards, and nest or offspring predation has increased at many Arctic and northern temperate locations. Altered trophic interactions have decreased the reproductive success and survival of migratory animals. Reduced advantages for long-distance migration have potentially serious consequences for community structure and ecosystem function. Changes in the benefits of migration need to be integrated into projections of population and ecosystem dynamics and targeted by innovative conservation actions.

Circumpolar phylogeography and demographic history of beluga whales reflect past climatic fluctuations

Several Arctic marine mammal species are predicted to be negatively impacted by rapid sea ice loss associated with ongoing ocean warming. However, consequences for Arctic whales remain uncertain. To investigate how Arctic whales responded to past climatic fluctuations, we analysed 206 mitochondrial genomes from beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) sampled across their circumpolar range, and four nuclear genomes, covering both the Atlantic and the Pacific Arctic region. We found four well-differentiated mitochondrial lineages, which were established before the onset of the last glacial expansion ~110 thousand years ago. Our findings suggested these lineages diverged in allopatry, reflecting isolation of populations during glacial periods when the Arctic sea-shelf was covered by multiyear sea ice. Subsequent population expansion and secondary contact between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans shaped the current geographic distribution of lineages, and may have facilitated mitochondrial introgression. Our demographic reconstructions based on both mitochondrial and nuclear genomes showed markedly lower population sizes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the preceding Eemian and current Holocene interglacial periods. Habitat modelling similarly revealed less suitable habitat during the LGM (glacial) than at present (interglacial). Together, our findings suggested the association between climate, population size, and available habitat in belugas. Forecasts for year 2100 showed that beluga habitat will decrease and shift northwards as oceans continue to warm, putatively leading to population declines in some beluga populations. Finally, we identified vulnerable populations which, if extirpated as a consequence of ocean warming, will lead to a substantial decline of species-wide haplotype diversity.

Spatiotemporal patterns of red fox scavenging in forest and tundra: the influence of prey fluctuations and winter conditions

Concern has been raised regarding red fox (Vulpes Vulpes) population increase and range expansion into alpine tundra, directly and indirectly enhanced by human activities, including carrion supply, and its negative impact on native fauna. In this study, we used cameras on bait stations and hunting remains to investigate how spatiotemporal patterns of red fox scavenging were influenced by abundance and accessibility of live prey, i.e., small rodent population cycles, snow depth, and primary productivity. We found contrasting patterns of scavenging between habitats during winter. In alpine areas, use of baits was highest post rodent peaks and when snow depth was low. This probably reflected relatively higher red fox abundance due to increased reproduction or migration of individuals from neighboring areas, possibly also enhanced by a diet shift. Contrastingly, red fox use of baits in the forest was highest during rodent low phase, and when snow was deep, indicating a higher dependency of carrion under these conditions. Scavenging patterns by red fox on the pulsed but predictable food resource from hunting remains in the autumn revealed no patterns throughout the rodent cycle. In this study, we showed that small rodent dynamics influenced red fox scavenging, at least in winter, but with contrasting patterns depending on environmental conditions. In marginal alpine areas, a numerical response to higher availability of rodents possible lead to the increase in bait visitation the proceeding winter, while in more productive forest areas, low availability of rodents induced a functional diet shift towards scavenging.

Longer days enable higher diurnal activity for migratory birds

Seasonal geophysical cycles strongly influence the activity of life on Earth because they affect environmental conditions like temperature, precipitation and day length. An increase in daylight availability during summer is especially enhanced when animals migrate along a latitudinal gradient. Yet, the question of how day length (i.e. daylight availability) influences the activity patterns of long-distance, latitudinal migrants is still unclear. Here, we ask whether migration provides benefits to long-distance migrants by enabling them to increase their diurnal movement activities due to an increase in daylight availability. To answer this question, we tested whether four vastly different species of long-distance migratory birds-two arctic migrants and two mid-latitude migrants-can capitalise on day length changes by adjusting their daily activity. We quantified the relationship between daily activity (measured using accelerometer data) and day length, and estimated each species' daily activity patterns. In addition, we evaluated the role of day length as an ultimate driver of bird migration. All four species exhibited longer activity periods during days with more daylight hours, showing a strong positive relationship between total daily activity and day length. The slope of this relationship varied between the different species, with activity increasing 1.5-fold on average when migrating from wintering to breeding grounds. Underlying mechanisms of these relationships reveal two distinct patterns of daily activity. Flying foragers showed increasing activity patterns, that is, their daytime activities rose uniformly up to solar noon and decreased until dusk, thereby exhibiting a season-specific activity slope. In contrast, ground foragers showed a constant activity pattern, whereby they immediately increased their activity to a certain level and maintained this level throughout the day. Our study reveals that long days allow birds to prolong their activity and increase their total daily activity. These findings highlight that daylight availability could be an additional ultimate cause of bird migration and act as a selective agent for the evolution of migration.

Behavioural responses of breeding arctic sandpipers to ground-surface temperature and primary productivity

Most birds incubate their eggs, which requires time and energy at the expense of other activities. Birds generally have two incubation strategies: biparental where both mates cooperate in incubating eggs, and uniparental where a single parent incubates. In harsh and unpredictable environments, incubation is challenging due to high energetic demands and variable resource availability. We studied the relationships between the incubation behaviour of sandpipers (genus Calidris) and two environmental variables: temperature and a proxy of primary productivity (i.e. NDVI). We investigated how these relationships vary between incubation strategies and across species among strategies. We also studied how the relationship between current temperature and incubation behaviour varies with previous day's temperature. We monitored the incubation behaviour of nine sandpiper species using thermologgers at 15 arctic sites between 2016 and 2019. We also used thermologgers to record the ground surface temperature at conspecific nest sites and extracted NDVI values from a remote sensing product. We found no relationship between either environmental variables and biparental incubation behaviour. Conversely, as ground-surface temperature increased, uniparental species decreased total duration of recesses (TDR) and mean duration of recesses (MDR), but increased number of recesses (NR). Moreover, small species showed stronger relationships with ground-surface temperature than large species. When all uniparental species were combined, an increase in NDVI was correlated with higher mean duration, total duration and number of recesses, but relationships varied widely across species. Finally, some uniparental species showed a lag effect with a higher nest attentiveness after a warm day while more recesses occurred after a cold day than was predicted based on current temperatures. We demonstrate the complex interplay between shorebird incubation strategies, incubation behaviour, and environmental conditions. Understanding how species respond to changes in their environment during incubation helps predict their future reproductive success.

Ecological insights from three decades of animal movement tracking across a changing Arctic

The Arctic is entering a new ecological state, with alarming consequences for humanity. Animal-borne sensors offer a window into these changes. Although substantial animal tracking data from the Arctic and subarctic exist, most are difficult to discover and access. Here, we present the new Arctic Animal Movement Archive (AAMA), a growing collection of more than 200 standardized terrestrial and marine animal tracking studies from 1991 to the present. The AAMA supports public data discovery, preserves fundamental baseline data for the future, and facilitates efficient, collaborative data analysis. With AAMA-based case studies, we document climatic influences on the migration phenology of eagles, geographic differences in the adaptive response of caribou reproductive phenology to climate change, and species-specific changes in terrestrial mammal movement rates in response to increasing temperature.

Transient benefits of climate change for a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation

Kane Basin (KB) is one of the world's most northerly polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations, where bears have historically inhabited a mix of thick multiyear and annual sea ice year-round. Currently, KB is transitioning to a seasonally ice-free region because of climate change. This ecological shift has been hypothesized to benefit polar bears in the near-term due to thinner ice with increased biological production, although this has not been demonstrated empirically. We assess sea-ice changes in KB together with changes in polar bear movements, seasonal ranges, body condition, and reproductive metrics obtained from capture-recapture (physical and genetic) and satellite telemetry studies during two study periods (1993-1997 and 2012-2016). The annual cycle of sea-ice habitat in KB shifted from a year-round ice platform (~50% coverage in summer) in the 1990s to nearly complete melt-out in summer (<5% coverage) in the 2010s. The mean duration between sea-ice retreat and advance increased from 109 to 160 days (p = .004). Between the 1990s and 2010s, adult female (AF) seasonal ranges more than doubled in spring and summer and were significantly larger in all months. Body condition scores improved for all ages and both sexes. Mean litter sizes of cubs-of-the-year (C0s) and yearlings (C1s), and the number of C1s per AF, did not change between decades. The date of spring sea-ice retreat in the previous year was positively correlated with C1 litter size, suggesting smaller litters following years with earlier sea-ice breakup. Our study provides evidence for range expansion, improved body condition, and stable reproductive performance in the KB polar bear subpopulation. These changes, together with a likely increasing subpopulation abundance, may reflect the shift from thick, multiyear ice to thinner, seasonal ice with higher biological productivity. The duration of these benefits is unknown because, under unmitigated climate change, continued sea-ice loss is expected to eventually have negative demographic and ecological effects on all polar bears.

Seasonal food webs with migrations: multi-season models reveal indirect species interactions in the Canadian Arctic tundra

Models incorporating seasonality are necessary to fully assess the impact of global warming on Arctic communities. Seasonal migrations are a key component of Arctic food webs that still elude current theories predicting a single community equilibrium. We develop a multi-season model of predator-prey dynamics using a hybrid dynamical systems framework applied to a simplified tundra food web (lemming-fox-goose-owl). Hybrid systems models can accommodate multiple equilibria, which is a basic requirement for modelling food webs whose topology changes with season. We demonstrate that our model can generate multi-annual cycling in lemming dynamics, solely from a combined effect of seasonality and state-dependent behaviour. We compare our multi-season model to a static model of the predator-prey community dynamics and study the interactions between species. Interestingly, including seasonality reveals indirect interactions between migrants and residents not captured by the static model. Further, we find that the direction and magnitude of interactions between two species are not necessarily accurate using only summer time-series. Our study demonstrates the need for the development of multi-season models and provides the tools to analyse them. Integrating seasonality in food web modelling is a vital step to improve predictions about the impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. This article is part of the theme issue 'The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning'.

Global Trends in Marine Plankton Diversity across Kingdoms of Life

The ocean is home to myriad small planktonic organisms that underpin the functioning of marine ecosystems. However, their spatial patterns of diversity and the underlying drivers remain poorly known, precluding projections of their responses to global changes. Here we investigate the latitudinal gradients and global predictors of plankton diversity across archaea, bacteria, eukaryotes, and major virus clades using both molecular and imaging data from Tara Oceans. We show a decline of diversity for most planktonic groups toward the poles, mainly driven by decreasing ocean temperatures. Projections into the future suggest that severe warming of the surface ocean by the end of the 21^st century could lead to tropicalization of the diversity of most planktonic groups in temperate and polar regions. These changes may have multiple consequences for marine ecosystem functioning and services and are expected to be particularly significant in key areas for carbon sequestration, fisheries, and marine conservation.

Video Abstract

•

Most epipelagic planktonic groups exhibit a poleward decline of diversity

•

No latitudinal diversity gradient was observed below the photic zone

•

Temperature emerges as the best predictor of epipelagic plankton diversity

•

Global warming may increase plankton diversity, particularly at high latitudes

Arctic terrestrial biodiversity status and trends: A synopsis of science supporting the CBMP State of Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Report

This review provides a synopsis of the main findings of individual papers in the special issue Terrestrial Biodiversity in a Rapidly Changing Arctic. The special issue was developed to inform the State of the Arctic Terrestrial Biodiversity Report developed by the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program (CBMP) of the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), Arctic Council working group. Salient points about the status and trends of Arctic biodiversity and biodiversity monitoring are organized by taxonomic groups: (1) vegetation, (2) invertebrates, (3) mammals, and (4) birds. This is followed by a discussion about commonalities across the collection of papers, for example, that heterogeneity was a predominant pattern of change particularly when assessing global trends for Arctic terrestrial biodiversity. Finally, the need for a comprehensive, integrated, ecosystem-based monitoring program, coupled with targeted research projects deciphering causal patterns, is discussed.

Status and trends of tundra birds across the circumpolar Arctic

Tundra-breeding birds face diverse conservation challenges, from accelerated rates of Arctic climate change to threats associated with highly migratory life histories. Here we summarise the status and trends of Arctic terrestrial birds (88 species, 228 subspecies or distinct flyway populations) across guilds/regions, derived from published sources, raw data or, in rare cases, expert opinion. We report long-term trends in vital rates (survival, reproduction) for the handful of species and regions for which these are available. Over half of all circumpolar Arctic wader taxa are declining (51% of 91 taxa with known trends) and almost half of all waterfowl are increasing (49% of 61 taxa); these opposing trends have fostered a shift in community composition in some locations. Declines were least prevalent in the African-Eurasian Flyway (29%), but similarly prevalent in the remaining three global flyways (44-54%). Widespread, and in some cases accelerating, declines underscore the urgent conservation needs faced by many Arctic terrestrial bird species.

Impact of past climate warming on genomic diversity and demographic history of collared lemmings across the Eurasian Arctic

The Arctic climate was warmer than today at the last interglacial and the Holocene thermal optimum. To reveal the impact of past climate-warming events on the demographic history of an Arctic specialist, we examined both mitochondrial and nuclear genomic variation in the collared lemming (Dicrostonyx torquatus, Pallas), a keystone species in tundra communities, across its entire distribution in northern Eurasia. The ancestral phylogenetic position of the West Beringian group and divergence time estimates support the hypothesis of continental range contraction to a single refugial area located in West Beringia during high-magnitude warming of the last interglacial, followed by westward recolonization of northern Eurasia in the last glacial period. The West Beringian group harbors the highest mitogenome diversity and its inferred demography indicates a constantly large effective population size over the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. This suggests that northward forest expansion during recent warming of the Holocene thermal optimum did not affect the gene pool of the collared lemming in West Beringia but reduced genomic diversity and effective population size in all other regions of the Eurasian Arctic. Demographic inference from genomic diversity was corroborated by species distribution modeling showing reduction in species distribution during past climate warming. These conclusions are supported by recent paleoecological evidence suggesting smaller temperature increases and moderate northward forest advances in the extreme northeast of Eurasia during the Late Pleistocene-to-Holocene warming events. This study emphasizes the importance of West Beringia as a potential refugium for cold-adapted Arctic species under ongoing climate warming.

Contrasting changes in space use induced by climate change in two Arctic marine mammal species

Global warming is inducing major environmental changes in the Arctic. These changes will differentially affect species owing to differences in climate sensitivity and behavioural plasticity. Arctic endemic marine mammals are expected to be impacted significantly by ongoing changes in their key habitats owing to their long life cycles and dependence on ice. Herein, unique biotelemetry datasets for ringed seals (RS; Pusa hispida) and white whales (WW; Delphinapterus leucas) from Svalbard, Norway, spanning two decades (1995-2016) are used to investigate how these species have responded to reduced sea-ice cover and increased Atlantic water influxes. Tidal glacier fronts were traditionally important foraging areas for both species. Following a period with dramatic environmental change, RS now spend significantly more time near tidal glaciers, where Arctic prey presumably still concentrate. Conversely, WW spend significantly less time near tidal glacier fronts and display spatial patterns that suggest that they are foraging on Atlantic fishes that are new to the region. Differences in levels of dietary specialization and overall behavioural plasticity are likely reasons for similar environmental pressures affecting these species differently. Climate change adjustments through behavioural plasticity will be vital for species survival in the Arctic, given the rapidity of change and limited dispersal options.

Density, snow, and seasonality lead to variation in muskox (Ovibos moschatus) habitat selection during summer

Understanding how environmental conditions influence habitat selection and suitability of free-ranging animals is critical, as the outcome may have implications for individual fitness and population dynamics. Density and snow are among the most influential environmental conditions driving habitat-selection patterns of northern ungulates. We used two decades of census data from high Arctic Greenland to quantify inter- and intra-annual variations in muskox (Ovibos moschatus (Zimmermann, 1780)) habitat selection and suitability during the Arctic summer (July through October). Across years, habitat selection varied considerably, and the strength of habitat selection appeared negatively related to both muskox density and spring snow cover. In early summer, habitat suitability was high and spatially rather uniform. Towards the autumn, suitable habitats contracted to just the lower elevations, when muskoxen exhibited increasingly stronger habitat selection towards low elevations and dense vegetation. This selection strategy clearly reflects the need to build up fat reserves for the upcoming winter, highlighting the energetic importance of the Arctic summer. Extreme climatic events such as freezing rain in autumn are increasing in frequency in Greenland and limit muskox access to high-quality forage in fens. Such events may therefore negatively affect the energy acquisition process of muskox with potential cascading consequences on population dynamics.

Climate warming may affect the optimal timing of reproduction for migratory geese differently in the low and high Arctic

Rapid climate warming is driving organisms to advance timing of reproduction with earlier springs, but the rate of advancement shows large variation, even among populations of the same species. In this study, we investigated how the rate of advancement in timing of reproduction with a warming climate varies for barnacle goose (Branta leucopsis) populations breeding at different latitudes in the Arctic. We hypothesized that populations breeding further North are generally more time constrained and, therefore, produce clutches earlier relative to the onset of spring than southern populations. Therefore, with increasing temperatures and a progressive relief of time constraint, we expected latitudinal differences to decrease. For the years 2000–2016, we determined the onset of spring from snow cover data derived from satellite images, and compiled data on egg laying date and reproductive performance in one low-Arctic and two high-Arctic sites. As expected, high-Arctic geese laid their eggs earlier relative to snowmelt than low-Arctic geese. Contrary to expectations, advancement in laying dates was similar in high- and low-Arctic colonies, at a rate of 27% of the advance in date of snowmelt. Although advancement of egg laying did not fully compensate for the advancement of snowmelt, geese laying eggs at intermediate dates in the low Arctic were the most successful breeders. In the high Arctic, however, early nesting geese were the most successful breeders, suggesting that high-Arctic geese have not advanced their laying dates sufficiently to earlier springs. This indicates that high-Arctic geese especially are vulnerable to negative effects of climate warming.

Structure, morphology and composition of fur on different parts of reindeer (Rangifer Tarandus) foot

In the long-distance migration of reindeer in winter, furs of reindeer foot, as the part in direct contacting with the external environment, can play the role of protection and heat preservation. With furs on different parts of the right posterior foot (fibular side, tibial side and planta pedis) as research objects, the microstructure of reindeer foot furs was observed with a scanning electron microscope. The image displayed that the reindeer foot furs was divided into 3 layers, namely cuticular layer, cortical layer and medulla layer. It was observed from the fur surface that the scales of fur on tibial side had smooth edge, with the scale structure in mosaic and coronary types. The scale structure of furs on the other parts showed the irregular waves due to abrasion to different degrees. From the cross-section view of fur, there was a non-medullated segment on the medial part of fur on planta pedis. The medulla layer of fibular and tibial sides showed a porous foam structure. The medulla index (MI) of fur on fibular side and tibial side at distal part was 70.35% and 81.79%, respectively, and MI at medial part was 77.88% and 88.08%. The composition of reindeer foot fur was measured through infrared spectroscopy and energy spectrum analysis respectively. The element contents of foot fur varied on different parts. The content of sulfur of the furs on planta pedis was higher than that on other parts. The research results can provide foundations for the functional study and bionic design of reindeer foot furs during long distance migration and swimming.

Effects of reproduction and environmental factors on body temperature and activity patterns of wolverines

BACKGROUND

Mammals in the far north are exposed to extreme seasonal changes in environmental conditions, such as temperature and photoperiod, which have notable effects on animal physiology and behaviour. The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a carnivore with a circumpolar distribution and well-adapted to extreme environmental conditions. Still, ecophysiological studies on free-ranging wolverines are lacking. In this study, we used abdominally implanted body temperature loggers in combination with GPS collars with acceleration sensors on 14 free-ranging wolverines in northern Sweden to study daily and seasonal variation in body temperature and activity patterns. We used generalized additive mixed modelling to investigate body temperature patterns over time and Lomb-Scargle periodogram analysis to analyse circadian rhythms.

RESULTS

We found that wolverines have an average core body temperature of 38.5 ± 0.2 °C with a daily variation of up to 6 °C. Body temperature patterns varied between reproductive states. Pregnant females showed a distinct decrease in body temperature during gestation. Wolverines were active both in day and night, but displayed distinct activity peaks during crepuscular hours. However, body temperature and activity patterns changed seasonally, with a gradual change from a unimodal pattern in winter with concentrated activity during the short period of day light to a bimodal pattern in autumn with activity peaks around dusk and dawn. Wolverines were less likely to display 24-h rhythms in winter, when hours of day light are limited.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of different biologging techniques gave novel insight into the ecophysiology, activity patterns and reproductive biology of free-ranging wolverines, adding important knowledge to our understanding of animals adapted to cold environments at northern latitudes.

Body condition impacts blood and muscle oxygen storage capacity of free-living beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas)

Arctic marine ecosystems are currently undergoing rapid environmental changes. Over the past 20 years, individual growth rates of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) have declined, which may be a response to climate change; however, the scarcity of physiological data makes it difficult to gauge the adaptive capacity and resilience of the species. We explored relationships between body condition and physiological parameters pertaining to oxygen (O₂) storage capacity in 77 beluga whales in the eastern Beaufort Sea. Muscle myoglobin concentrations averaged 77.9 mg g^-1, one of the highest values reported among mammals. Importantly, blood haematocrit, haemoglobin and muscle myoglobin concentrations correlated positively to indices of body condition, including maximum half-girth to length ratios. Thus, a whale with the lowest body condition index would have ∼27% lower blood (26.0 versus 35.7 ml kg^-1) and 12% lower muscle (15.6 versus 17.7 ml kg^-1) O₂ stores than a whale of equivalent mass with the highest body condition index; with the conservative assumption that underwater O₂ consumption rates are unaffected by body condition, this equates to a >3 min difference in maximal aerobic dive time between the two extremes (14.3 versus 17.4 min). Consequently, environmental changes that negatively impact body condition may hinder the ability of whales to reach preferred prey sources, evade predators and escape ice entrapments. The relationship between body condition and O₂ storage capacity may represent a vicious cycle, in which environmental changes resulting in decreased body condition impair foraging, leading to further reductions in condition through diminished prey acquisition and/or increased foraging efforts.

Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds

Ongoing climate change is thought to disrupt trophic relationships, with consequences for complex interspecific interactions, yet the effects of climate change on species interactions are poorly understood, and such effects have not been documented at a global scale. Using a single database of 38,191 nests from 237 populations, we found that shorebirds have experienced a worldwide increase in nest predation over the past 70 years. Historically, there existed a latitudinal gradient in nest predation, with the highest rates in the tropics; however, this pattern has been recently reversed in the Northern Hemisphere, most notably in the Arctic. This increased nest predation is consistent with climate-induced shifts in predator-prey relationships.

Arctic climate change and pollution impact little auk foraging and fitness across a decade

Ongoing global changes apply drastic environmental forcing onto Arctic marine ecosystems, particularly through ocean warming, sea-ice shrinkage and enhanced pollution. To test impacts on arctic marine ecological functioning, we used a 12-year integrative study of little auks (Alle alle), the most abundant seabird in the Atlantic Arctic. We monitored the foraging ecology, reproduction, survival and body condition of breeding birds, and we tested linkages between these biological variables and a set of environmental parameters including sea-ice concentration (SIC) and mercury contamination. Little auks showed substantial plasticity in response to SIC, with deeper and longer dives but less time spent underwater and more time flying when SIC decreased. Their diet also contained less lipid-rich ice-associated prey when SIC decreased. Further, in contrast to former studies conducted at the annual scale, little auk fitness proxies were impacted by environmental changes: Adult body condition and chick growth rate were negatively linked to SIC and mercury contamination. However, no trend was found for adult survival despite high inter-annual variability. Our results suggest that potential benefits of milder climatic conditions in East Greenland may be offset by increasing pollution in the Arctic. Overall, our study stresses the importance of long-term studies integrating ecology and ecotoxicology.