The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm

The HCV-Melanoma Paradox: First Multi-Cohort and Molecular Net-Work Analysis Reveals Lower Incidence but Worse Outcomes-Integrating Clinical, Real-World, and In Silico Data

Background and Objectives: The relationship between hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and melanoma remains poorly understood. This study aimed to investigate the association between HCV and melanoma, assess outcomes in patients with both conditions, and explore potential molecular mechanisms connecting the two diseases. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 142 melanoma patients, including 29 with HCV-related cirrhosis, and analyzed their clinical outcomes. For external validation, we used the TriNetX Global Collaborative Network database, comprising 219,960 propensity-matched patients per group. An in silico analysis was performed to identify the molecular pathways linking HCV and melanoma. Results: In the retrospective cohort, HCV-positive melanoma patients showed an increased risk of early relapse (41.4% vs. 18.6%, p = 0.014), recurrence (65.5% vs. 39.8%, p = 0.020), and mortality (65.5% vs. 23.0%, p < 0.001) compared to HCV-negative patients. TriNetX data analysis revealed that HCV-positive patients had a 53% lower risk of developing melanoma (RR = 0.470, 95% CI: 0.443-0.498, p < 0.001). However, HCV-positive melanoma patients had higher all-cause mortality (HR = 1.360, 95% CI: 1.189-1.556, p < 0.001). An in silico analysis identified key molecular players, including IL-6 and CTLA4, in the HCV-melanoma network. Conclusions: While HCV infection may be associated with a lower risk of melanoma development, HCV-positive patients who develop melanoma have poorer outcomes. The identified molecular pathways provide potential targets for future research and therapeutic interventions.

Screening strategy to advance HCV elimination in Italy: a cost-consequence analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Italy has the greatest burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Western Europe. The screening strategy represents a crucial prevention tool to achieve HCV elimination in Italy. We evaluated the cost-consequences of different screening strategies for the diagnosis of HCV active infection in the birth cohort 1948-1968 to achieve the HCV elimination goal.

METHODS

We designed a probabilistic model to estimate the clinical, and economic outcomes of different screening coverage uptakes, considering the direct costs of HCV management according to each liver fibrosis stage, in the Italian context. A decision probabilistic tree simulates 4 years of HCV testing of the 1948-1968 general population birth cohort, (15,485,565 individuals to be tested) considering different coverage rates. A No-screening scenario was compared with two alternative screening scenarios that represented different coverage rates each year: (1) Incremental approach (coverage rates equal to 5%, 10%, 30%, and 50% at years 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively) and (2) Fast approach (50% coverage rate at years 1, 2, 3 and 4). Overall 106,200 cases were previously estimated to have an HCV active infection. A liver disease progression Markov model was considered for an additional 6 years (horizon-time 10 years).

RESULTS

The highest increased number of deaths and clinical events are reported for the No-screening scenario (21,719 cumulative deaths at the end of ten years; 10,148 cases with HCC and/or 7618 cases with Decompensated Cirrhosis). Following the Fast-screening scenario, the reductions in clinical outcomes and deaths were higher compared with No-screening and Incremental-screening. At ten years time horizon, less than 5696 liver deaths (PSA CI95%: - 3873 to 7519), 3,549 HCC (PSA CI95%: - 2413 to 4684) and less than 3005 liver decompensations (PSA CI 95%: - 2104 to 3907) were estimated compared with the Incremental-scenario. The overall costs of the Fast-screening, including the costs of the DAA and liver disease management of the infected patients for 10 years, are estimated to be € 43,107,543 more than no-investment in screening and € 62,289,549 less compared with the overall costs estimated by the Incremental-scenario.

CONCLUSION

It is necessary to guarantee dedicated funds and efficiency of the system for the cost-efficacious screening of the 1948-1968 birth cohort in Italy. A delay in HCV diagnosis and treatment in the general population, yet not addressed for the HCV free-of-charge screening, will have important clinical and economic consequences in Italy.

Valuing the Societal Impact of Medicines and Other Health Technologies: A User Guide to Current Best Practices

This study argues that value assessment conducted from a societal perspective should rely on the Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (GCEA) framework proposed herein. Recently developed value assessment inventories - such as the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness's "impact inventory" and International Society of Pharmacoeconomics Outcomes Research (ISPOR) "value flower" - aimed to more comprehensively capture the benefits and costs of new health technologies from a societal perspective. Nevertheless, application of broader value elements in practice has been limited in part because quantifying these elements can be complex, but also because there have been numerous methodological advances since these value inventories have been released (e.g. generalized and risk-adjusted cost effectiveness). To facilitate estimation of treatment value from a societal perspective, this paper provides an updated value inventory - called the GCEA value flower - and a user guide for implementing GCEA for health economics researchers and practitioners. GCEA considers 15 broader value elements across four categories: (i) uncertainty, (ii) dynamics, (iii) beneficiary, and (iv) additional value components. The uncertainty category incorporates patient risk preferences into value assessment. The dynamics category petals account for the evolution of real-world treatment value (e.g. option value) and includes drug pricing trends (e.g. future genericization). The beneficiary category accounts for the fact health technologies can benefit others (e.g. caregivers) and also that society may care to whom health benefits accrue (e.g. equity). Finally, GCEA incorporates additional broader sources of value (e.g. community spillovers, productivity losses). This GCEA user guide aims to facilitate both the estimation of each of these value elements and the incorporation of these values into health technology assessment when conducted from a societal perspective.

Comparing the Risk of Poor Outcomes Among Hepatitis C-Infected, Cured, and Never-Infected Controls

Background and Aims

Studies show decreased rates of poor outcomes after hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure. However, there are no data comparing risk of poor outcomes to that of HCV never infected; results that could have implications for those who may not need ongoing specialty follow-up after cure.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study conducted among Kaiser Permanente Northern California adults ages 18 and up between 2002 and 2019. Three cohorts were identified: 1) chronic HCV, 2) HCV cured, and 3) every chronic HCV and HCV-cured individual was matched by age, sex and race-ethnicity to 3 HCV negative controls. Outcomes of interest were cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and all-cause mortality. A low-risk group of HCV cured individuals without significant liver disease and/or concomitant liver disease cofactor(s) were identified.

Results

We identified 21,184 chronic HCV, 11,950 HCV cure, and 99,402 control individuals. Five-year cumulative incidence of cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, HCC and all-cause mortality was 10% vs 3.6% vs 0.8%, 12% vs 2.6% vs 0.6%, 3.9% vs 1.6% vs 0.07%, and 14% vs 2.8% vs 2.2% for chronic HCV, HCV cure, and control individuals, respectively (log-rank P < .01 for all). Compared to controls, HCV cured low-risk individuals had numerically similar 5-year cumulative incidence of cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, HCC and all-cause mortality (1.2% vs 0.8%, P < .01; 0.9% vs 0.6%, P < .01; 0.5% vs 0.1%, P < .01; 1.7% vs 2.2%, P < .01).

Conclusion

HCV cure provides significant health benefits but does not universally return risk of poor outcomes to that of the general population. A simple stratification at the time of HCV cure could identify low-risk individuals who can potentially be discharged from specialty clinics/HCC surveillance.

Unearthing the role of septins in viral infections

Septin proteins are a subfamily of closely related GTP-binding proteins conserved in all species except for higher plants and perform essential biological processes. Septins self-assemble into heptameric or octameric complexes and form higher-order structures such as filaments, rings, or gauzes by end-to-end binding. Their close association with cell membrane components makes them central in regulating critical cellular processes. Due to their organisation and properties, septins function as diffusion barriers and are integral in providing scaffolding to support the membrane's curvature and stability of its components. Septins are also involved in vesicle transport and exocytosis through the plasma membrane by co-localising with exocyst protein complexes. Recently, there have been emerging reports of several human and animal diseases linked to septins and abnormalities in their functions. Most of our understanding of the significance of septins during microbial diseases mainly pertains to their roles in bacterial infections but not viruses. This present review focuses on the known roles of septins in host-viral interactions as detailed by various studies.

Epidemiological Modeling of the Impact of Public Health Policies on Hepatitis C: Protocol for a Gamification Tool Targeting Microelimination

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C is a disease with a strong social component, as its main transmission route is via blood, making it associated with lifestyle. Therefore, it is suitable to be worked on from the perspective of public health policy, which still has a lot of room to explore and improve, contrary to diagnoses and treatments, which are already very refined and effective.

OBJECTIVE

An interactive gamified policy tool, designated as Let's End HepC (LEHC), was created to understand the impact of policies related to hepatitis C on the disease's epidemiology on a yearly basis until 2030.

METHODS

To this end, an innovative epidemiological model was developed, integrating Markov chains to model the natural history of the disease and adaptive conjoint analysis to reflect the degree of application of each of the 24 public health policies included in the model. This double imputation model makes it possible to assess a set of indicators such as liver transplant, incidence, and deaths year by year until 2030 in different risk groups. Populations at a higher risk were integrated into the model to understand the specific epidemiological dynamics within the total population of each country and within segments that comprise people who have received blood products, prisoners, people who inject drugs, people infected through vertical transmission, and the remaining population.

RESULTS

The model has already been applied to a group of countries, and studies in 5 of these countries have already been concluded, showing results very close to those obtained through other forms of evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

The LEHC model allows the simulation of different degrees of implementation of each policy and thus the verification of its epidemiological impact on each studied population. The gamification feature allows assessing the adequate fulfillment of the World Health Organization goals for the elimination of hepatitis C by 2030. LEHC supports health decision makers and people who practice patient advocacy in making decisions based on science, and because LEHC is democratically shared, it ends up contributing to the increase of citizenship in health.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

RR1-10.2196/38521.

Confirmation of guideline-defined hepatitis C screening strategies within the 'Check-Up35+' examination in the primary care setting

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Screening strategies for undiagnosed infections are fundamental for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. We previously investigated HCV prevalence and screening strategies in an urban primary care setting. IV drug abuse, blood transfusion before 1992, immigration, or elevated ALT were identified as risk factors in a post hoc analysis and diagnosed 83% of unknown HCV-RNA-positive cases by screening only 26% of the population. We aimed to validate prospectively the proposed screening algorithm in two independent urban and rural cohorts and to analyse for potential differences.

METHODS

Anti-HCV and ALT were included in a routine check-up together with a questionnaire covering risk factors. HCV-RNA was analysed in anti-HCV-positive individuals.

RESULTS

In urban and rural areas, 4323 and 9321 individuals were recruited. The anti-HCV prevalence was 0.56% and 0.49%, and 0.1% of patients were HCV-RNA-positive in both regions. Fifty-two anti-HCV positive patients including eight HCV-RNA-positive cases were unaware of the infection (number needed to screen to detect one unknown anti-HCV-positive individual: 262). At least one of the three aforementioned risk factors or elevated serum ALT was present in 3000 patients (22%). Restricting HCV screening to only those with risk factors, 52% and 75% of all anti-HCV and HCV-RNA-positive undiagnosed patients were identified (number needed to screen: 111).

CONCLUSIONS

We confirm prospectively the efficiency of a risk-based HCV screening. The risk-based algorithm should be evaluated in other countries with similarly low HCV prevalence as in Germany to achieve WHO HCV elimination goals.

P-21 Activated Kinases in Liver Disorders

The p21 Activated Kinases (PAKs) are serine threonine kinases and play important roles in many biological processes, including cell growth, survival, cytoskeletal organization, migration, and morphology. Recently, PAKs have emerged in the process of liver disorders, including liver cancer, hepatic ischemia-reperfusion injury, hepatitis, and liver fibrosis, owing to their effects in multiple signaling pathways in various cell types. Activation of PAKs promotes liver cancer growth and metastasis and contributes to the resistance of liver cancer to radiotherapy and chemotherapy, leading to poor survival of patients. PAKs also play important roles in the development and progression of hepatitis and other pathological processes of the liver such as fibrosis and ischemia-reperfusion injury. In this review, we have summarized the currently available studies about the role of PAKs in liver disorders and the mechanisms involved, and further explored the potential therapeutic application of PAK inhibitors in liver disorders, with the aim to provide a comprehensive overview on current progress and perspectives of PAKs in liver disorders.

Liver Disease and Poor Adherence Limit Hepatitis C Cure: A Real-World Australian Treatment Cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In 2016, direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment for hepatitis C (HCV) became available through Australia's universal health care system, with the aim of HCV elimination. We report real-world effectiveness of DAA HCV treatment in Australia from a clinically well-informed cohort, enriched for cirrhosis and prior HCV treatment.

METHODS

3413 patients were recruited from 26 hospital liver clinics across Australia from February 2016 to June 2020. Clinical history and sustained viral response (SVR) were obtained from medical records and data linkage to the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. Factors associated with SVR were assessed by multivariable logistic regression (MVR).

RESULTS

At recruitment, 32.2% had cirrhosis (72.9% Child Pugh class B/C), and 19.9% were treatment experienced. Of the 2,939 with data, 93.3% confirmed SVR. 137 patients received second-line therapy. Patients with cirrhosis had lower SVR rate (88.4 vs. 95.8%; p < 0.001). On MVR, failure to achieve SVR was associated with Genotype 3 (adj-OR = 0.42, 95%CI 0.29-0.61), male gender (adj-OR = 0.49, 95%CI 0.31-0.77), fair/poor adherence (adj-OR = 0.52, 95%CI 0.28-0.94), cirrhosis (adj-OR = 0.57, 95%CI 0.36-0.88), FIB-4 > 3.25 (adj-OR = 0.52, 95%CI 0.33-0.83) and MELD score ≥ 20 (adj-OR = 0.25, 95%CI 0.08-0.80). Consistent results were seen in cirrhotic sub-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Excellent SVR rates were achieved with DAAs in this real-world cohort of patients with chronic HCV infection. More advanced liver disease and clinician impression of poor adherence were associated with HCV treatment failure. Supports to improve liver fibrosis assessment skills for non-specialist DAA prescribers in the community and to optimize patient adherence are likely to enable more effective pursuit of HCV elimination in Australia.

Pilot Outreach Program in Remedis-The Promising Step toward HCV Elimination among People Who Inject Drugs

The global effort to eliminate HCV infection requires new approaches to accessing and testing the affected population in a setting with as low of a threshold as possible. The focus should be on socially marginalized people who inject drugs (PWIDs) and who are not willing or able to visit standard medical services. With this vision, we established an outreach service-a testing point in an ambulance in the park in front of the Main Railway Station of the capital city of Prague-to provide bloodborne disease testing and treatment. The service was available every week on Wednesday afternoon. Over the initial two years of our experience, 168 unique people were tested. Of them, 82 (49%) were diagnosed with chronic HCV infection and were eligible for treatment with antivirals. Of these, 24 (29%) initiated antiviral treatment over the study period, and 17 (71%) of these individuals achieved a documented sustained virological response. Offering medical services in PWIDs' neighborhoods helps overcome barriers and increase the chances that they will become patients and begin HCV treatment. The described outcomes appear promising for reaching the vision of linkage to the care of such a hard-to-reach population and can serve as a feasible model of care for further expansion.

Hepatitis C time trends in reported cases and estimates of the hidden population born before 1965, Denmark and Sweden, 1990 to 2020

BackgroundAccording to the World Health Organization, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection should be under control by 2030.AimOur aim was to describe the size and temporal changes in reported cases of chronic HCV infection in Denmark and Sweden and to estimate the size of the hidden (undiagnosed) population born before 1965.MethodsWe extracted all HCV infections reported to national surveillance systems in Denmark and Sweden from 1990 to 2020. Prediction of the size of the hidden HCV-infected population was restricted to the cohort born before 1965 and cases reported up to 2017. We applied a model based on removal sampling from binomial distributions, estimated the yearly probability of diagnosis, and deducted the original HCV-infected population size.ResultsDenmark (clinician-based) reported 10 times fewer hepatitis C cases annually than Sweden (laboratory and clinician-based), peaking in 2007 (n = 425) and 1992 (n = 4,537), respectively. In Denmark, the birth year distribution was monophasic with little change over time. In recent years, Sweden has had a bimodal birth year distribution, suggesting ongoing infection in the young population. In 2017, the total HCV-infected population born before 1965 was estimated at 10,737 living persons (95% confidence interval (CI): 9,744-11,806), including 5,054 undiagnosed, in Denmark and 16,124 (95% CI: 13,639-18,978), including 10,580 undiagnosed, in Sweden.ConclusionsThe reporting of HCV cases in Denmark and Sweden was different. For Denmark, the estimated hidden population was larger than the current national estimate, whereas in Sweden the estimate was in line with the latest published numbers.

Clinical and economic value of sofosbuvir-based regimens in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Spain

BACKGROUND

The treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) with direct-acting antivirals has undergone a spectacular revolution and added significant value to healthcare systems and patients. The aim of the study was to evaluate the efficiency and value of Sofosbuvir (SOF)-based regimens for a target population of 85,959 chronic HCV patients treated in Spain during 2015-2019, compared to previous therapeutic strategies (peginterferon/ and ribavirin in double/triple therapy with telaprevir or boceprevir).

METHODS

A previously developed lifetime Markov model was adapted to simulate the disease HCV evolution. In SOF-based regimens, all patients (100%) were treated regardless with sustained virological response (SVR) of 93-98%, obtained from real-world data. In previous therapeutic, only ≥F2 patients were treated according to clinical practice (38%) with an average SVR of 61% taken from published literature. The value was measured as clinical and economic impact in terms of avoided HCV-related mortality and liver complications; total costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) applying an annual 3% discount rate.

RESULTS

Compared to previous therapeutic, during lifetime, SOF-based regimens reduced decompensated cirrhosis by 89%, hepatocellular carcinoma by 77% and liver transplant by 84%, decreasing the cost associated to liver complications management in €770 million. SOF-based regimens also decreased liver-related mortality by 82%. Besides, SOF-based regimens gained 310,765/QALYs, saving €274 million (considering drugs, monitoring, and HCV management).

CONCLUSION

For Spain, SOF-based regimens offer value for HCV patients in terms of lowering HCV-related liver disease burden and generating significant cost savings for the health system, contributing to the WHO goal.

Intrauterine Transmission of Hepatitis C Virus Concomitant with Isolated Severe Fetal Ascites

Background: Perinatal Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) transmission occurs in 4–7% of the cases with detectable viremia at delivery. HCV testing in pregnancy is recommended. The fetal infection was previously described as asymptomatic although there are two cases, including this one, to report the presence of isolated fetal ascites in HCV infected fetuses. Case report: A 42-year-old patient, 3G, 3P, presented in the Emergency Room for painful uterine contraction. The third-trimester ultrasound examination noted severe fetal ascites, accompanied by hyperechoic bowels and polyhydramnios. The diagnosis required a detailed ultrasound exam, invasive testing (amniocentesis, cordocentesis, and fetal paracentesis), and a complete workup. The mother tested positive for HCV antibodies, and the fetal cord blood tested positive for HCV RNA. The ascites resolved after paracentesis, and the gastrointestinal and respiratory functions markedly improved. The fetus was delivered at term in good condition. Conclusions: The etiology of isolated fetal ascites is broad. This case may indicate that intrauterine HCV transmission is a potential cause of isolated fetal ascites in the absence of other explanation, and isolated fetal ascites can be the only sign revealed on a routine examination. We suspected, having no other detected cause for ascites, the intrauterine transmission of HCV. Invasive procedures, such as paracentesis, are required for abdominal decompression to manage isolated fetal ascites, as it may be a saving procedure. A genetic investigation is needed, and a good neonatal outcome is expected in the absence of fetal structural or genetic abnormalities, as in our case.

Country versus pharmaceutical company interests for hepatitis C treatment

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the leading causes of liver disease and is responsible for massive health and economic burden worldwide. The disease is asymptomatic in its early stages, but it can progress over time to fatal end-stage liver disease. Thus, the majority of individuals infected with HCV are unaware of their chronic condition. Recent treatment options for HCV can completely cure the infection but are costly. We developed a game model between a pharmaceutical company (PC) and a country striving to maximize its citizens' utility. First, the PC determines the price of HCV treatment; then, the country responds with corresponding screening and treatment strategies. We employed an analytical framework to calculate the utility of the players for each selected strategy. Calibrated to detailed HCV data from Israel, we found that the PC will gain higher revenue by offering a quantity discount rather than using standard fixed pricing per treatment, by indirectly forcing the country to conduct more screening than it desired. By contrast, risk-sharing agreements, in which the country pays only for successful treatments are beneficial for the country. Our findings underscore that policy makers worldwide should prudently consider recent offers by PCs to increase screening either directly, via covering HCV screening, or indirectly, by providing discounts following a predetermined volume of sales. More broadly, our approach is applicable in other healthcare settings where screening is essential to determine treatment strategies.

Modelling the microelimination of chronic hepatitis C in the canton of Bern, Switzerland: Reaching the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals despite the impact of the COVID 19 pandemic

Aims of the study

Since 2014, the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy (SHS) has targeted the elimination of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) in Switzerland. The epidemiology of HCV is diverse across Swiss cantons, therefore cantonal-level screening and treatment strategies should be developed. This study aimed to identify scenarios to achieve HCV elimination in the canton of Bern by 2030.

Methods

A preexisting Markov disease burden model was populated with data for Bern, and used to forecast the current and future prevalence of HCV, annual liver-related deaths (LRDs), and incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis until 2030. Scenarios were developed to assess the current standard of care and potential long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the HCV infected population. Additionally, potential scenarios for achieving the WHO 2030 targets and the SHS 2025 and 2030 targets (reduction of new cases of HCV, HCV-related mortality and viremic HCV cases) were identified.

Results

In 2019, there were an estimated 4,600 (95% UI: 3,330–4,940) viremic infections in the canton of Bern and 57% (n = 2,600) of viremic cases were diagnosed. This modelling forecasted a 10% increase in LRDs (28 in 2020 to 31 in 2030) with the current standard of care and a 50% increase in LRDs in a scenario assuming long-term delays. To achieve the WHO and SHS targets, the canton of Bern needs to increase the annual number of patients diagnosed (from 90 in 2019 to 250 per year in 2022–2024 [WHO], or 500 per year in 2022–2025 [SHS]) and treated (from 130 in 2019 to 340 per year in 2022–2024 [WHO] or 670 per year in 2022–2025 [SHS]).

Conclusions

The SHS goals and the WHO targets for HCV elimination can be achieved in the Swiss canton of Bern by 2030; however, not at the current pace of screening, linkage to care and treatment.

Updated epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infections and implications for hepatitis C virus elimination in Germany

In 2014, an analysis was conducted to evaluate the hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology and disease burden in Germany. Since then, there have been considerable developments in HCV management such as the implementation of direct acting antivirals. The aim of this analysis was to assess the recent data available for Germany, establish an updated 2020 HCV prevalence and cascade of care and evaluate the impact of what-if scenarios on the future burden of disease using modelling analysis. A dynamic Markov model was used to forecast the HCV disease burden in Germany. Model inputs were retrieved through literature review, unpublished sources and expert input. Next, three "what-if" scenarios were developed to evaluate the status quo, COVID-19 pandemic, and steps needed to achieve the WHO targets for elimination. At the beginning of 2020, there were 189,000 (95% UI: 76,700-295,000) viremic infections in Germany, a decline of more than 85,000 viremic infections since 2012. Annual treatment starts went down since 2015. Compared with 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a further 11% decline in 2020. If this continues for two years, it could result in 110 excess HCC cases and 200 excess liver related deaths by 2030. To achieve the WHO targets, 81,200 people need to be diagnosed, with 118,600 initiated on treatment by 2030. This could also avert 1,020 deaths and 720 HCC cases between 2021 and 2030. Germany has made strides towards HCV elimination, but more efforts are needed to achieve the WHO targets by 2030.

The Payer License Agreement, or "Netflix model," for hepatitis C virus therapies enables universal treatment access, lowers costs and incentivizes innovation and competition

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

High unit prices of treatments limit access. For epidemics like that of hepatitis C virus (HCV), reduced treatment access increases prevalence and incidence, making the infectious disease increasingly difficult to manage. The objective of the current study was to construct and test an alternative pricing model, the Payer License Agreement (PLA), and determine whether it could improve outcomes, cut costs and incentivize innovation versus the current unit-based pricing model.

METHODS

We built and used computational models of hepatitis C disease progression, treatment, and pricing in historical and future scenarios and quantitatively analyzed their economic and epidemiological impact in three high-income countries.

RESULTS

This study had three key results regarding HCV treatment. First, if the PLA model had been implemented when interferon-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) combinations launched, the number of patients treated and cured would have more than doubled in the first three years, while the liver-related deaths (LRDs) would have decreased by around 40%. Second, if the PLA model had been implemented beginning in 2018, the year that several Netflix-like payment models were under implementation, the number of treated and cured patients would nearly double, and the LRDs would decline by more than 55%. Third, implementing the PLA model would result in a decline in total payer costs of more than 25%, with an increase to pharmaceutical manufacturer revenues of 10%. These results were true across the three healthcare landscapes studied, the USA, the UK and Italy, and were robust against variations to critical model parameters through sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These results suggest that implementation of the PLA model in high-income countries across a variety of health system contexts would improve patient outcomes at lower payer cost with more stable revenue for pharmaceutical manufacturers. Health policy-makers in high-income countries should consider the PLA model for application to more cost-effective management of HCV, and explore its application for other infectious diseases with curative therapies available now or soon.

Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends.

METHODS

This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age ≥0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0·7% (95% UI 0·7-0·9), corresponding to 56·8 million (95% UI 55·2-67·8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6·8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63·6 million (61·8-75·8) infections (0·9% [0·8-1·0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12·9 million (12·5-15·4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment.

INTERPRETATION

At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56·8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination.

FUNDING

John C Martin Foundation, Gilead Sciences, AbbVie, ZeShan Foundation, and The Hepatitis Fund.

Pursuing Elimination of Hepatitis C in Egypt: Cost-Effectiveness and Economic Evaluation of a Country-Wide Program

Introduction

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a global public health crisis. Egypt presents the highest HCV global prevalence. Recently, three different HCV screening/testing/therapy programs were implemented: In 2014 (wave 1), major decisions on HCV therapy were enacted, accompanied by a 99% discount for the HCV therapy sofosbuvir. In 2016 (wave 2), a first testing program was launched to identify patients for free treatment. In 2018 (wave 3), population-wide screening was conducted using a WHO-prequalified finger prick rapid diagnostic test (RDT) to identify/treat all Egyptians with HCV. The financial advantages of HCV screening programs (wave 1–3 results) were estimated vs a baseline period of limited Egyptian HCV testing/therapeutic intervention (2008–2014).

Methods

Using published evidence and model-based estimates from real-world data, we evaluated the direct costs of the different HCV programs, accompanied by a conservative simulation of major HCV health consequences (i.e., liver-related deaths/life years lost) and related indirect costs. Total economic consequences of each HCV program were compared to each other and baseline from a societal perspective. Future costs and health effects were discounted by 3.5% per year.

Results

Discounted total costs (in US dollars) were $1,057 billion (baseline), $913 million (wave 1), $457 million (wave 2), and $396 million (wave 3). Discounted HCV-related life years lost were 418,000 (baseline), 377,000 (wave 1), 142,000 (wave 2), and 62,000 (wave 3). With each successive Egyptian HCV screening/testing/therapy wave, total costs and HCV-related mortality were reduced.

Conclusion

Use of the community-applied, WHO-prequalified RDT was the most dominant approach to cost-effectiveness. These results provide rationale for worldwide scalability of similar HCV elimination programs.

Let's End HepC: Modelling Public Health Epidemiological Policies Applied to Hepatitis C in Spain

Background: The WHO has defined international targets toward the elimination of hepatitis C by 2030. Most countries cannot be on track to achieve this goal unless many challenges are surpassed. The Let's End HepC (LEHC) tool aims to contribute to the control of hepatitis C. The innovation of this tool combines the modelling of public health policies (PHP) focused on hepatitis C with epidemiological modelling of the disease, obtaining a unique result that allows to forecast the impact of policy outcomes. The model was applied to several countries, including Spain.

Methods: To address the stated objective, we applied the “Adaptive Conjoint Analysis” for PHP decision-making and Markov Chains in the LEHC modelling tool. The tool also aims to be used as an element of health literacy for patient advocacy through gamification mechanisms and country comparability. The LEHC project has been conducted in several countries, including Spain. The population segments comprised in the project are: People Who Inject Drugs (PWID), prisoners, blood products, remnant population.

Results: A total of 24 PHP related to hepatitis C were included in the LEHC project. It was identified that Spain had fully implemented 14 of those policies to control hepatitis C. According to LEHC's model forecast, the WHO's Hepatitis C elimination goal on reducing the number of patients living with Hepatitis C to 10% can be achieved in Spain by 2026 if current policies are maintained. The model estimates that the total population in Spain, by 2026, is expected to comprise 26,367 individuals living with hepatitis C. Moreover, if the 24 PHP considered for this study are fully implemented in Spain, the elimination goal may be achieved in 2024, with 29,615 individuals living with hepatitis C by that year.

Conclusion: The findings corroborate the view that Spain has set great efforts in directing PHP toward Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination by 2030. However, there is still room for improvement, namely in further implementing 10 of the 24 PHP considered for the LEHC project. By maintaining the 14 PHP in force, the LEHC model estimates the HCV elimination in the country by 2026, and by 2024 if further measures are employed to control the disease.

HCV disease burden and population segments in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

Switzerland has made strides towards hepatitis C virus elimination, but as of 2019, elimination was not guaranteed. However, political interest in viral hepatitis has been increasing. We sought to develop a better understanding of Switzerland's progress towards HCV elimination and the profile of remaining HCV-RNA-positive patients.

METHODS

A previously described Markov model was updated with recent diagnosis and treatment data and run to generate new forecasts for HCV disease burden. Two scenarios were developed to evaluate HCV morbidity and mortality under the status quo and a scenario that achieves the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy Elimination targets. Next, an analysis was conducted to identify population segments bearing a high burden of disease, where future elimination efforts could be directed.

RESULTS

At the beginning of 2020, an estimated 32 100 viremic infections remained in Switzerland (0.37% viremic prevalence). Adult (≥18 years of age) permanent residents born abroad represented the largest subpopulation, accounting for 56% of HCV infections. Thirteen countries accounted for ≥60% of viremic infections amongst permanent residents born abroad, with most people currently residing in Zurich, Vaud, Geneva, Bern, Aargau and Ticino. Amongst Swiss-born HCV-RNA-positive persons, two-thirds had a history of IDU, corresponding to 33% of total infections.

CONCLUSIONS

In Switzerland, extra efforts for diagnosis and linkage to care are warranted in foreign-born populations and people with a history of drug use. Population-level measures (eg increasing the number of providers, increase screening) can identify patients who may have otherwise fallen through the gaps or avoided care because of stigma.

Breakthroughs in hepatitis C research: from discovery to cure

In the 1970s, an unknown virus was suspected for documented cases of transfusion-associated hepatitis, a phenomenon called non-A, non-B hepatitis. In 1989, the infectious transmissible agent was identified and named hepatitis C virus (HCV) and, soon enough, the first diagnostic HCV antibody test was developed, which led to a dramatic decrease in new infections. Today, HCV infection remains a global health burden and a major cause of liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and liver transplantation. However, tremendous advances have been made over the decades, and HCV became the first curable, chronic viral infection. The introduction of direct antiviral agents revolutionized antiviral treatment, leading to viral eradication in more than 98% of all patients infected with HCV. This Perspective discusses the history of HCV research, which reads like a role model for successful translational research: starting from a clinical observation, specific therapeutic agents were developed, which finally were implemented in national and global elimination programmes.

From Screening to Therapy: Anti-HCV Screening and Linkage to Care in a Network of General Practitioners and a Private Gastroenterology Practice

(1) Background: Low rates of hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnosis and sub-optimal linkage to care constitute barriers toward eliminating the infection. In 2012/2013, we showed that HCV screening in primary care detects unknown cases. However, hepatitis C patients may not receive further diagnostics and therapy because they drop out during the referral pathway to secondary care. Thus, we used an existing network of primary care physicians and a practice of gastroenterology to investigate the pathway from screening to therapy. (2) Methods: HCV screening was prospectively included in a routine check-up of primary care physicians who cooperated regularly with a private gastroenterology practice. Anti-HCV-positive patients were referred for further specialized diagnostics and treatment if indicated. (3) Results: Seventeen primary care practices screened 1875 patients. Twelve individuals were anti-HCV-positive (0.6%), six of them reported previous antiviral HCV therapy, and one untreated patient was HCV-RNA-positive (0.05% of the population). None of the 12 anti-HCV-positive cases showed up at the private gastroenterology practice. Further clinical details of the pathway from screening to therapy could not be analyzed. (4) Conclusions: The linkage between primary and secondary care appears to be problematic in the HCV setting even among cooperating partners, but robust conclusions require larger datasets.

The Practicability of the Xpert HCV Viral Load Fingerstick Point-of-Care Assay in Primary Care Settings

Linkage to care presents one obstacle toward eliminating HCV, and the current two-step pathway (anti-HCV, followed by HCV-RNA testing) results in the loss of patients. HCV screening was tested in the primary care setting with the fingerstick Xpert HCV viral load point-of-care assay to analyze the practicability of immediate diagnosis. Anti-HCV (Cobas) and HCV-RNA (Cobas Amplicor version 2.0, only performed if anti-HCV was positive) were analyzed centrally as the gold standard. The Xpert assay was performed by 10 primary care private practices. In total, 622 patients were recruited. Five individuals (0.8%) were anti-HCV positive, and one was HCV-RNA positive. The Xpert test was valid in 546/622 (87.8%) patients. It was negative in 544 and positive in 2 cases, both of whom were anti-HCV negative. The HCV-RNA PCR and the Xpert test were both negative in 4/5 anti-HCV-positive cases, and the individual with HCV-RNA 4.5 × 106 IU/mL was not detected by the Xpert test. Primary care physicians rated the Xpert test practicability as bad, satisfactory, or good in 6%, 13%, and 81%, respectively, though 14/29 (48%) bad test ratings were assigned by a single practice. Despite adequate acceptance, interpretability and diagnostic performance in primary care settings should be further evaluated before its use in HCV screening can be recommended.

The Netherlands Is on Track to Meet the World Health Organization Hepatitis C Elimination Targets by 2030

Background: The Netherlands strives for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination, in accordance with the World Health Organization targets. An accurate estimate when HCV elimination will be reached is elusive. We have embarked on a nationwide HCV elimination project (CELINE) that allowed us to harvest detailed data on the Dutch HCV epidemic. This study aims to provide a well-supported timeline towards HCV elimination in The Netherlands. Methods: A previously published Markov model was used, adopting published data and unpublished CELINE project data. Two main scenarios were devised. In the Status Quo scenario, 2020 diagnosis and treatment levels remained constant in subsequent years. In the Gradual Decline scenario, an annual decrease of 10% in both diagnoses and treatments was implemented, starting in 2020. WHO incidence target was disregarded, due to low HCV incidence in The Netherlands (≤5 per 100,000). Results: Following the Status Quo and Gradual Decline scenarios, The Netherlands would meet WHO’s elimination targets by 2027 and 2032, respectively. From 2015 to 2030, liver-related mortality would be reduced by 97% in the Status Quo and 93% in the Gradual Decline scenario. Compared to the Status Quo scenario, the Gradual Decline scenario would result in 12 excess cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 18 excess cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, and 20 excess cases of liver-related death from 2020–2030. Conclusions: The Netherlands is on track to reach HCV elimination by 2030. However, it is vital that HCV elimination remains high on the agenda to ensure adequate numbers of patients are being diagnosed and treated.

Estimating the net value of treating hepatitis C virus using sofosbuvir-velpatasvir in India

Recently developed direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments for hepatitis C virus (HCV) have been groundbreaking for their high efficacy across disease genotypes and lack of severe side effects. This study uses a cost-of-illness (COI) approach to estimate the net value conferred by this class of drugs using the cost and efficacy of one of these novel drug combinations, sofosbuvir and velpatasvir (SOF/VEL), recently licensed for generic manufacture in India. This study considers COI of lifetime earnings lost by patients and potential secondarily infected individuals due to disability and premature death from HCV infection. Expected net benefits of treatment are substantial for non-cirrhotic (NC) and compensated cirrhotic (CC) patients (ranging from 5,98,003 INR for NC women to 1,05,25,504 INR for CC men). Increased earnings are not sufficient to fully offset cost of treatment for decompensated cirrhotic individuals but treatment may still be justified on the basis of the intrinsic value of health improvements and other treatment benefits.

Evaluation of Sustained Virologic Response as a Relevant Surrogate Endpoint for Long-term Outcomes of Hepatitis C Virus Infection

BACKGROUND

The causal link of sustained virologic response (SVR) with outcome has been challenged. With improved SVR rates with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), the benefit of SVR would be expected to diminish if the association with outcome is not causal.

METHODS

Data were collected for patients starting treatment with interferon (IFN) or DAAs between June 2006 and December 2016. To control for disease severity, criteria for the IDEAL (Individualized Dosing Efficacy vs. Flat Dosing to Assess Optimal Pegylated Interferon Therapy) trial determined IFN-eligibility. Clinical events were decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

In 1078 IDEAL-eligible patients, 1306 treatments occurred (52% IFN, 49% DAAs). Cirrhosis was present in 30% DAAs vs 21% IFN (P < .001). SVR was 97% with DAAs vs 52% with IFN (P < .0001). The 24-month cumulative event-free survival was 99% for IFN and 97% for DAAs with SVR (P = .08) and 96% and 75%, respectively, for non-SVR (P = .01). SVR was associated with improved event-free survival with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.21 (95% confidence interval, .06-.71; P = .01). Using inverse probability of treatment weighting to match IFN nonresponders with DAA-treated patients, the 24-month event-rate was 1.1% with DAAs compared to 3.4% in IFN nonresponders (P = .005), highlighting the clinical benefit of maximizing SVR.

CONCLUSIONS

In IFN-eligible patients, SVR is more commonly achieved with DAAs and confers a similar clinical benefit as in those treated with IFN. The reduced event-rate with DAAs compared to IFN, despite similar disease severity, confirm that SVR alters prognosis leading to improved clinical outcomes.

Absolute targets for HCV elimination and national health policy paradigms: Foreseeing future requirements

The World Health Organization (WHO) targets for eliminating HCV by 2030 may be overambitious for many high-income countries. Recent analyses (ie, data from 2017 to 2019) show that only 11 countries are on track for meeting WHO's elimination targets. For a country to be truly on track, it is important that the majority of infected individuals be identified and treated. There is still a need for country and population-specific evaluations within the different HCV screening and treatment strategies available, in order to assess their cost-effectiveness and sustainability and support an evidence-based policy for HCV elimination. Any health policy model is affected by the diversity and quality of the available data and by gaps in data. Given the differences among countries, comparing progress based on fixed global targets will not necessarily be suitable in the same measure for each country. In a recent document, the European Collaborators of Polaris Observatory provide insight into the limitations of the current WHO targets. The absolute targets identified by each country in accordance with the measures set by WHO would be essential in reaching the HCV elimination. All analytic models to assess the progress towards HCV elimination are based on projections to 2030 not including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hepatitis-related services. With specific regard to the achievement of WHO hepatitis elimination goals, all measures that will be put in place during and after COVID-19 pandemic could be transferred in increasing diagnosis and linkage to care of people with hepatitis.

Randomized Trial of a Vaccine Regimen to Prevent Chronic HCV Infection

BACKGROUND

A safe and effective vaccine to prevent chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a critical component of efforts to eliminate the disease.

METHODS

In this phase 1-2 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we evaluated a recombinant chimpanzee adenovirus 3 vector priming vaccination followed by a recombinant modified vaccinia Ankara boost; both vaccines encode HCV nonstructural proteins. Adults who were considered to be at risk for HCV infection on the basis of a history of recent injection drug use were randomly assigned (in a 1:1 ratio) to receive vaccine or placebo on days 0 and 56. Vaccine-related serious adverse events, severe local or systemic adverse events, and laboratory adverse events were the primary safety end points. The primary efficacy end point was chronic HCV infection, defined as persistent viremia for 6 months.

RESULTS

A total of 548 participants underwent randomization, with 274 assigned to each group. There was no significant difference in the incidence of chronic HCV infection between the groups. In the per-protocol population, chronic HCV infection developed in 14 participants in each group (hazard ratio [vaccine vs. placebo], 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 3.55; vaccine efficacy, -53%; 95% CI, -255 to 34). In the modified intention-to-treat population, chronic HCV infection developed in 19 participants in the vaccine group and 17 in placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 0.79 to 3.50; vaccine efficacy, -66%; 95% CI, -250 to 21). The geometric mean peak HCV RNA level after infection differed between the vaccine group and the placebo group (152.51×10³ IU per milliliter and 1804.93×10³ IU per milliliter, respectively). T-cell responses to HCV were detected in 78% of the participants in the vaccine group. The percentages of participants with serious adverse events were similar in the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In this trial, the HCV vaccine regimen did not cause serious adverse events, produced HCV-specific T-cell responses, and lowered the peak HCV RNA level, but it did not prevent chronic HCV infection. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01436357.).

Estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV infected individuals in Italy: A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression

BACKGROUND

The universal treatment of diagnosed patients with chronic HCV infection has been widely conducted in Italy since 2017. However, the pool of individuals diagnosed but yet to be treated in Italy has been estimated to end around 2025, leaving a significant proportion of infected individuals undiagnosed/without care. Estimates of this population are currently unknown.

METHODS

A probabilistic modelling approach was applied to estimate annual historical HCV incident cases by their age-group (0-100 years) distribution from available literature and Italian National database (1952 to October 2019). Viraemic infection rates were modelled on the main infection routes in Italy: people who inject drugs (PWID), tattoos, sexual transmission, glass syringe use, blood transfusion and vertical transmission. Annual liver fibrosis stage transition probabilities were modelled using a Markov model. The number of HCV viraemic asymptomatic (fibrosis stage F0-F3:potentially undiagnosed/unlinked to care) and symptomatic (fibrosis stage F4: potentially linked to care) individuals was estimated.

RESULTS

By October 2019, total viraemic HCV individuals in Italy (excluding treated patients since 1992) were estimated to be 410,775 (0.68 % of current population of Italy; 95 % CI: 0.64-0.71%, based on the current Italian population), of which 281,809 (0.47 %; 95 % CI:0.35-0.60%) were fibrosis stage F0-F3. Among different high risk groups in stage F0-F3, the following distribution was estimated: PWID; 52.0 % (95 % CI:37.9-66.6 %), tattoo; 28.8 % (95 % CI:23-32.3 %), sexual transmission; 12.0 % (95 % CI:9.6-13.7 %), glass syringe and transfusion; 6.4 % (95 % CI:2.4-17.8 %), and vertical transmission; 0.7 % (95 % CI:0.4-1.2 %).

CONCLUSION

Under the assumption that most untreated HCV-infected individuals with stage F0-F3 are undiagnosed, more than 280,000 individuals are undiagnosed and/or unlinked to care in Italy. Marked heterogeneity across the major routes of HCV transmission was estimated. This modelling approach may be a useful tool to characterise the HCV epidemic profile also in other countries, based on country specific epidemiology and HCV main transmission routes.

Integrating public health policies in the epidemiological modeling of hepatitis C with LEHC tool: application in Austria

Background

Eliminating hepatitis C requires addressing issues other than medicines or therapies. Public health policies focused on the hepatitis C virus (HCV) must be emphasized and worked to know the impacts on its epidemiologic dynamics. This research aims to provide a tool to evaluate and simulate alternatives by redefining policies meeting specific needs in each country towards the HCV elimination target by 2030.

Methods

The development of a gamified model with 24 public health policies focused on HCV was conducted to evaluate the impact of measures in the disease epidemiologic dynamics. The Let’s End HepC (LEHC) project encompassed key populations (people who inject drugs [PWID], prisoners, blood products and remnant population) in Austria and other countries, presenting prospects for every year from 2019 to 2030. The LEHC epidemiological model comprised an integrated solution for HCV, with adaptive conjoint analysis (ACA) and Markov chains constituting its main processes.

Results

Despite Austria’s efforts towards achieving the HCV elimination goal by 2030, the LEHC model forecast quantitative analysis predicts that it is still not enough to meet the target; however, prospects are very optimistic if public health policies are adapted to the country’s needs, being possible to achieve the goal as early as 2026.

Conclusion

In Austria, the LEHC tool allowed to forecast the HCV elimination year anticipation to 2026, instead of being achieved after 2030. This target will only be valid if adequate management of the 24 public health policies focused on this pathology is further implemented.

Hepatitis C Virus Infection in Pregnancy: An Update

Parenteral transmission is the major route of hepatitis C virus transmission in adults; however, vertical transmission is most common in children. There are several factors that have been shown to be associated with vertical transmission of hepatitis C virus, including hepatitis C virus RNA, human immunodeficiency virus coinfection, and peripheral blood mononuclear cell infection. As there is no effective vaccine to prevent hepatitis C virus infection, and there are no human data describing the safety of the new direct acting antiviral agents in pregnancy, the only preventive strategy for vertical transmission is to treat the hepatitis C virus infection before becoming pregnant. Direct acting antiviral agents are interferon-free, and many are also ribavirin-free. Based on animal studies, sofosbuvir plus ledipasvir may be the best safety profile during pregnancy for now; however, it is too early to recommend treating hepatitis C virus-infected pregnant women with these direct acting antiviral agents currently.

The Copenhagen test and treat hepatitis C in a mobile clinic study: a protocol for an intervention study to enhance the HCV cascade of care for people who inject drugs (T'N'T HepC)

INTRODUCTION

Injecting drug use is the primary driver of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Europe. Despite the need for more engagement with care, people who inject drugs (PWID) are hard to reach with HCV testing and treatment. We initiated a study to evaluate the efficacy for testing and linkage to care among PWID consulting peer-based testing at a mobile clinic in Copenhagen, Denmark.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

In this intervention study, we will recruit participants at a single community-based, peer-run mobile clinic. In a single visit, we will first offer participants a point-of-care HCV antibody test, and if they test positive, then they will receive an HCV RNA test. If they are HCV-RNA+, we will administer facilitated referrals to designated 'fast-track' clinics at a hospital or an addiction centre for treatment. The primary outcomes for this study are the number of tested and treated individuals. Secondary outcomes include individuals lost at each step in the care cascade.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The results of this study could provide a model for targeting PWID for HCV testing and treatment in Demark and other settings, which could help achieve WHO HCV elimination targets. The Health Research Ethics Committee of Denmark and the Danish Data Protection Agency confirmed (December 2018/January 2019) that this study did not require their approval. Study findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations and social media.

Treatment patterns and direct medical costs among patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

AIMS

This study assessed the real-world United States (US) treatment patterns and the associated economic burden in patients diagnosed with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

The MarketScan database was used to identify patients newly diagnosed with HCC who received systemic therapy between 2011 and 2018 and continuously enrolled for ≥6 months (baseline period) prior and ≥1 month following HCC diagnosis. Treatment patterns (systemic and locoregional therapy), healthcare resource utilization, and costs were reported during follow-up.

RESULTS

The final sample included 1580 patients (median age, 61; 78% male; median follow up, 8.7 months). The most common first line of therapy (LOT) was sorafenib (78%). The median time from HCC diagnosis to start of sorafenib was 43 days, and the median duration of sorafenib therapy was 60 days. Only 17% of patients received second LOT, and non-sorafenib treatment use increased to 66% (mostly chemotherapy combination). Transarterial chemoembolization was the most commonly observed locoregional therapy prior to the first LOT. The multivariable-adjusted average all-cause total cost among sorafenib treated patients was $17,642 (95% CI: $16,711-$18,558) per-patient per-month), of which $11,393 were HCC-specific.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients who received first-line therapy for HCC, the duration of therapy was short (potentially due to progression or tolerability). Most patients did not continue to second-line therapy. Despite the short duration of therapy, HCC patients still incur a high economic burden, and there is a need for more effective and tolerable treatments.

French hepatitis C care cascade: substantial impact of direct-acting antivirals, but the road to elimination is still long

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination by 2030, as targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO), requires that 90% of people with chronic infection be diagnosed and 80% treated. We estimated the cascade of care (CoC) for chronic HCV infection in mainland France in 2011 and 2016, before and after the introduction of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs).

METHODS

The numbers of people (1) with chronic HCV infection, (2) aware of their infection, (3) receiving care for HCV and (4) on antiviral treatment, were estimated for 2011 and 2016. Estimates for 1) and 2) were based on modelling studies for 2011 and on a virological sub-study nested in a national cross-sectional survey among the general population for 2016. Estimates for 3) and 4) were made using the National Health Data System.

RESULTS

Between 2011 and 2016, the number of people with chronic HCV infection decreased by 31%, from 192,700 (95% Credibility interval: 150,900-246,100) to 133,500 (95% Confidence interval: 56,900-312,600). The proportion of people aware of their infection rose from 57.7 to 80.6%. The number of people receiving care for HCV increased by 22.5% (representing 25.7% of those infected in 2016), while the number of people on treatment increased by 24.6% (representing 12.1% of those infected in 2016).

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that DAAs substantially impact CoC. However, access to care and treatment for infected people remained insufficient in 2016. Updating CoC estimates will help to assess the impact of new measures implemented since 2016 as part of the goal to eliminate HCV.

Preliminary Results of the Micro-Elimination Project of Hepatitis C in a Disadvantaged Town in South-West of Romania-Orşova

Despite all recent advances in the diagnosis and treatment of hepatitis C virus infection, the incidence remains high, motivating the present study to improve the prognosis of the disease through early diagnosis of asymptomatic patients with possible detectable risk factors. The aim of this study is to identify HCV infection in a disadvantaged population before the onset of symptoms and guide to specialized services for initiation of antiviral therapy, thus adhering to the WHO goal of elimination the infection. Materials and Methods: In the first two weeks after the start of the study, 320 patients with detectable risk factors for HCV were tested using rapid tests, in a southwestern city of Romania, Orşova, with the participation of four doctors, via Family Medicine Offices. Results: As a percentage, the amount of detection based on rapid tests was 2.5%, the positive results have apparently been achieved exclusively among female subjects. All patients have been informed about the result and included in the diagnostic trial, where they were fully evaluated to determine if they were eligible for therapy. Conclusions. Population screening contributes to the diagnosis and elimination of an underdiagnosed pathology, in a disadvantaged area with limited access to medical care. The positive feedback that has been received in just a few weeks after its beginning, once again has motivated to emphasis the population screening, with real considerations on the possibility of expanding this program on a large scale.

Significant decrease in the prevalence of hepatitis C infection after the introduction of direct acting antivirals

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Accurate information on the epidemiology of hepatitis C and B infection is mandatory to establish a national/regional plan. We aim to update the prevalence of hepatitis C and B infection in Catalonia using point-of-care tests to analyze the risk factors related and to implement a linkage-to-care circuit.

METHODS

This is a community-based study. A random list of adult individuals was retrieved from censuses of primary care centers. Point-of-care tests for anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) and a questionnaire for risk factor assessment were performed. Positive results were validated and a circuit for linkage-to-care was established.

RESULTS

A total of 3328 individuals were included. The anti-HCV and HBsAg overall prevalence were lower than expected [1.02%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65-1.39; and 0.52%, 95% CI 0.26-0.77, respectively]. Anti-HCV positive subjects were mostly (88%) autochthonous. The prevalence increased with age; only 12% were under age 40. The associated risk factors were drug use, blood transfusion, relative with HCV, and diabetes. Notably, the prevalence of active infection was only 0.49% (95% CI 0.23-0.74), 40% less than previously reported, reflecting the impact of direct acting antiviral therapy. Differently, HBsAg positive subjects were mostly foreign migrants (53%) with no other risk factors. Despite the implementation of a linkage-to-care circuit, one third of HBsAg positive subjects were lost.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of HCV infection was lower than previously reported, showing a strong impact of direct acting antiviral therapy in the last years. Because of hepatitis B universal vaccination, HBV infection in Catalonia is mainly associated with migrant population. Linkage-to-care in patients with hepatitis B was challenging and warrants additional efforts.

Hospital discharges of hepatocellular carcinoma and non-alcohol related cirrhosis in the EU/EEA and United Kingdom: a descriptive analysis of 2004-2015 data

BACKGROUND

Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of mortality globally, comparable to that of HIV and TB. Most hepatitis deaths are related to liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with chronic hepatitis B and C infections. To examine the progress towards the elimination goals set in the global health sector strategy for viral hepatitis, we aimed to assess the impact of mortality-indicative morbidity.

METHODS

We retrieved inpatients and day cases hospital discharges data from the Eurostat hospital activities database, and analysed ICD-10 and ICD-9 specific codes related to primary HCC and non-alcohol related cirrhosis registered by European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries and United Kingdom (UK) for 2004 to 2015.

RESULTS

In 2015, 20 countries (45.7% of total EU/EEA/UK population) reported 13,236 (Range 0-6294) day cases and 36,012 (4-9097) inpatients discharges of HCC. Romania, Croatia, Luxembourg and UK reported increasing day cases discharge rates between 2004 and 2015; while HCC inpatients discharge rates increased overall during this period. There were 13,865 (0-5918) day cases and 56,176 (3-29,118) inpatients discharges reported for cirrhosis across the 20 countries in 2015. Over the 12 years, day cases discharge rates for cirrhosis increased in Romania, Croatia and UK. Though higher than for day cases, cirrhosis inpatients discharge rates remained stable.

CONCLUSIONS

The hospital burden of HCC and cirrhosis is high, with considerable inpatient load including sustained increasing trends in HCC discharge rates. Further interpretation in light of local health system contexts, and more robust harmonised data are needed to better understand the impact of the viral hepatitis epidemic in the region.

Long-Term Trend of Liver Cancer Mortality in Serbia, 1991-2015: An Age-Period-Cohort and Joinpoint Regression Analysis

Background and Objectives: Trends of liver cancer mortality vary widely around the world. The purpose of this study was to assess the trend of liver cancer mortality in Serbia. Material and Methods: Descriptive epidemiological study design was used in this research. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, per 100,000) were calculated using the direct method, according to the World standard population. Temporal trends were assessed using the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI), according to joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort analysis was used to evaluate the underlying factors for liver cancer mortality trends. Results: In Serbia from 1991 to 2015, over 11,000 men and nearly 8000 women died from liver cancer. The trend in liver cancer mortality significantly decreased both in men (AAPC = -1.3%; 95% CI = -1.7 to -0.9) and women (AAPC = -1.5%; 95% CI = -1.9 to -1.1). For liver cancer mortality, statistically significant cohort and period effects were observed in both genders. Conclusions: The downward trends in liver cancer mortality in Serbia are recorded during the past decades.

Development and validation of a simple and rapid method for hepatitis C virus genotyping based on one-step RT-qPCR

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections caused by different subtypes require different treatments; therefore, rapid and cost-effective genotyping methods for the diagnosis of HCV are greatly needed. In the present study, a new method to diagnose HCV subtypes that depends on a one-step quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) and TaqMan fluorescence probe technique is described. Five pairs of primers and five probes were designed, which were able to detect five genotypes in three reaction tubes. One reaction was used to detect the 1b subtype, one was used to detect the 2a and 6a subtypes, and the other was used to detect the 3a and 3b subtypes. Rigorous performance validation was implemented for five aspects: Precision, sensitivity, accuracy, specificity and anti-interference. The HCV subtype that infected 289 patients was evaluated in the present study via RT-qPCR and verified by sequencing. The results revealed that the 1b subtype accounted for 45% of infections, the 2a subtype accounted for 9% of infections, the 3a subtype accounted for 13% of infections, the 3b subtype accounted for 18% of infections, and the 6a subtype accounted for 15% of infections. The analytical sensitivity for the detection of each of the five HCV subtypes was 1,000 IU/ml. The new method performed well in the performance validation mentioned above, indicating its effectiveness as a HCV genotyping method. RT-qPCR has mitigated some of the former challenges of existing HCV genotyping methods, including the time commitment, expense, and inaccuracy of such methods. The performance validation of this new method showed that RT-qPCR is reliable enough to be widely applied in China for HCV genotyping.

Frequent loss to follow-up after diagnosis of hepatitis C virus infection: A barrier towards the elimination of hepatitis C virus

BACKGROUND

Previous studies on hepatitis C cascade of care have been mainly focused on diagnosis and treatment rate, while less attention has been given to patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) after diagnosis. Analyses of this latter issue on population level are missing.

AIMS

In this nationwide study of people with HCV, we aimed to estimate the proportion LTFU after HCV diagnosis, characterize them, and analyze their other healthcare contacts.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with chronic HCV in the Swedish National Patient Register during 2001-2011 and still alive December 31, 2013, were included. The number of cured patients without need of follow-up was estimated. Visits to HCV specialist care during 2012-2013 were analysed. For those LTFU, other specialist care contacts were studied.

RESULTS

In total 29 217 patients were included, with 24 733 with need of HCV care. 61% (n = 15 007) of them were LTFU from HCV care in 2012-2013 and 58% did not attend HCV care during the second year after HCV diagnosis. The departments of surgery/orthopaedic or psychiatry/dependency were the most common other non-primary healthcare contacts. Predictors for LTFU were young age, male sex, low education, presence of psychiatric/dependency diagnosis, unmarried and longer duration since diagnosis of HCV.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that almost two-thirds of patients were LTFU after HCV diagnosis, with frequent occurrence early after diagnosis. Efforts to link patients back to HCV care, in combination with early and easy access to HCV treatment and harm reduction, are necessary to reach the HCV elimination goal.

All-Cause Mortality and Causes of Death in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study (SCCS)

Background

With direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs), mortality rates and causes of death among persons with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection may change over time. However, the emergence of such trends may be delayed by the slow progression of chronic hepatitis C. To date, detailed analyses of cause-specific mortality among HCV-infected persons over time remain limited.

Methods

We evaluated changes in causes of death among Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study (SCCS) participants from 2008 to 2016. We analyzed risk factors for all-cause and cause-specific mortality, accounting for changes in treatment, fibrosis stage, and use of injectable drugs over time. Mortality ascertainment was completed by linking lost-to-follow-up participants to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office death registry.

Results

We included 4700 SCCS participants, of whom 478 died between 2008 and 2016. The proportion of unknown causes of death decreased substantially after linkage, from 42% to 10%. Leading causes of death were liver failure (crude death rate 4.4/1000 person-years), liver cancer (3.4/1000 person-years), and nonliver cancer (2.8/1000 person-years), with an increasing proportion of cancer-related deaths over time. Cause-specific analysis showed that persons with sustained virologic response were less at risk for liver-related mortality than those never treated or treated unsuccessfully.

Conclusions

Although the expected decrease in mortality is not yet observable, causes of death among HCV-infected persons have evolved over time. With the wider use of DAAs, liver-related mortality is expected to decline in the future. Continued monitoring of cause-specific mortality will remain important to assess the long-term effect of DAAs and design effective interventions.

Short-Duration Pan-Genotypic Therapy With Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir for 6 Weeks Among People With Recent Hepatitis C Viral Infection

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Among treatment-naive individuals with chronic hepatitis C viral (HCV) infection and without cirrhosis, glecaprevir/pibrentasvir for 8 weeks is recommended. The aim of this analysis was to evaluate the efficacy of glecaprevir/pibrentasvir for 6 weeks in people with acute and recent HCV infection.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

In this open-label, single-arm, multicenter, international pilot study, adults with recent HCV (duration of infection < 12 months) received glecaprevir/pibrentasvir 300/120 mg daily for 6 weeks. Primary infection was defined by first positive anti-HCV antibody and/or HCV RNA within 6 months of enrollment and either acute clinical hepatitis within the past 12 months (symptomatic seroconversion illness or alanine aminotransferase > 10 × upper limit of normal) or anti-HCV antibody seroconversion within 18 months. Reinfection was defined as new positive HCV RNA within 6 months of enrollment and evidence of prior spontaneous or treatment-induced clearance. The primary endpoint was sustained virologic response at 12 weeks posttreatment (SVR12). Thirty men (median age 43 years, 90% men who have sex with men) received treatment, of whom 77% (n = 23) were human immunodeficiency virus-positive, 47% (n = 14) had ever injected drugs, and 13% (n = 4) had HCV reinfection. The majority had HCV genotype 1 (83%, n = 25), followed by genotype 4 (10%, n = 3) and genotype 3 (7%, n = 2). At baseline, median estimated duration of infection was 29 weeks (range 13, 52) and median HCV RNA was 6.2 log₁₀ IU/mL (range 0.9, 7.7). SVR12 in the intention-to-treat and per-protocol populations was achieved in 90% (27/30) and 96% (27/28), respectively. There was one case of relapse, and there were two cases of nonvirological failure (death, n = 1; loss to follow-up, n = 1). No treatment-related serious adverse events were seen.

CONCLUSIONS

Glecaprevir/pibrentasvir for 6 weeks was highly effective among people with acute and recent HCV infection, supporting further evaluation of shortened-duration pan-genotypic therapy in this setting.

New LncRNAs in Chronic Hepatitis C progression: from fibrosis to hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer-related death in the world, and about 80% of the cases are associated with hepatitis B or C. Genetic and epigenetic alterations are accumulated over decades of chronic injury and may affect the functioning of tumor suppressor genes and protooncogenes. Studies have evidenced the role of Long non-coding RNAs (LncRNA) with oncogenic or tumor suppressor activities, suggesting a great potential in the treatment, diagnosis or indicator of prognosis in cancer. In this context, the aim of this study was to evaluate the global expression profile lncRNA in hepatic tissue samples with different stages of fibrosis associated with chronic hepatitis C, HCC and normal liver, in order to identify new lncRNAs that could contribute to study the progression of hepatic fibrosis to HCC associated with chronic hepatitis C. RNA-Seq was performed on Illumina NextSeq platform to identify lncRNAs expressed differently in 15 patients with chronic hepatitis C, three patients with HCC and three normal liver specimens. When the pathological tissues (fibrosis and carcinoma) were compared to normal hepatic tissue, were identified 2, 6 e 34 differentially expressed lncRNAs in moderate fibrosis, advanced fibrosis and HCC, respectively. The carcinoma group had the highest proportion of differentially expressed lncRNA (34) and of these, 29 were exclusive in this type of tissue. A heat map of the deregulated lncRNA revealed different expression patterns along the progression of fibrosis to HCC. The results showed the deregulation of some lncRNA already classified as tumor suppressors in HCC and other cancers, as well as some unpublished lncRNA whose function is unknown. Some of these lncRNAs are dysregulated since the early stages of liver injury in patients with hepatitis C, others overexpressed only in tumor tissue, indicating themselves as candidates of markers of fibrosis progression or tumor, with potential clinical applications in prognosis as well as a therapeutic target. Although there are already studies on lncRNA in hepatocellular carcinoma, this is the first study conducted in samples exclusively of HCV-related liver and HCV HCC.

Costs and consequences of the Portuguese needle-exchange program in community pharmacies

Background

Needle-exchange programs (NEPs) reduce infections in people who inject drugs. This study assesses the impact community pharmacies have had in the Needle-Exchange Program in Portugal since 2015.

Methods

Health gains were measured by the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections averted, which were estimated, in each scenario, based on a standard model in the literature, calibrated to national data. The costs per infection were taken from national literature; costs of manufacturing, logistics and incineration of injection materials were also considered. The results were presented as net costs (i.e., incremental costs of the program with community pharmacies less the costs of additional infections avoided).

Results

Considering a 5-year horizon, the Needle Exchange Program with community pharmacies would account for a 6.8% (n = 25) and a 6.5% reduction (n = 22) of HCV and HIV infections, respectively. The present value of net savings generated by the participation of community pharmacies in the program was estimated at €2,073,347. The average discounted net benefit per syringe exchanged is €3.01, already taking into account a payment to community pharmacies per needle exchanged.

Interpretation

We estimate that the participation of community pharmacies in the Needle Exchange Program will lead to a reduction of HIV and HCV infections and will generate over €2 million in savings for the health system.

Conclusions

The intervention is estimated to generate better health outcomes at lower costs, contributing to improving the efficiency of the public health system in Portugal.