Optimization of hepatitis C virus screening strategies by birth cohort in Italy

Screening strategy to advance HCV elimination in Italy: a cost-consequence analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Italy has the greatest burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Western Europe. The screening strategy represents a crucial prevention tool to achieve HCV elimination in Italy. We evaluated the cost-consequences of different screening strategies for the diagnosis of HCV active infection in the birth cohort 1948-1968 to achieve the HCV elimination goal.

METHODS

We designed a probabilistic model to estimate the clinical, and economic outcomes of different screening coverage uptakes, considering the direct costs of HCV management according to each liver fibrosis stage, in the Italian context. A decision probabilistic tree simulates 4 years of HCV testing of the 1948-1968 general population birth cohort, (15,485,565 individuals to be tested) considering different coverage rates. A No-screening scenario was compared with two alternative screening scenarios that represented different coverage rates each year: (1) Incremental approach (coverage rates equal to 5%, 10%, 30%, and 50% at years 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively) and (2) Fast approach (50% coverage rate at years 1, 2, 3 and 4). Overall 106,200 cases were previously estimated to have an HCV active infection. A liver disease progression Markov model was considered for an additional 6 years (horizon-time 10 years).

RESULTS

The highest increased number of deaths and clinical events are reported for the No-screening scenario (21,719 cumulative deaths at the end of ten years; 10,148 cases with HCC and/or 7618 cases with Decompensated Cirrhosis). Following the Fast-screening scenario, the reductions in clinical outcomes and deaths were higher compared with No-screening and Incremental-screening. At ten years time horizon, less than 5696 liver deaths (PSA CI95%: - 3873 to 7519), 3,549 HCC (PSA CI95%: - 2413 to 4684) and less than 3005 liver decompensations (PSA CI 95%: - 2104 to 3907) were estimated compared with the Incremental-scenario. The overall costs of the Fast-screening, including the costs of the DAA and liver disease management of the infected patients for 10 years, are estimated to be € 43,107,543 more than no-investment in screening and € 62,289,549 less compared with the overall costs estimated by the Incremental-scenario.

CONCLUSION

It is necessary to guarantee dedicated funds and efficiency of the system for the cost-efficacious screening of the 1948-1968 birth cohort in Italy. A delay in HCV diagnosis and treatment in the general population, yet not addressed for the HCV free-of-charge screening, will have important clinical and economic consequences in Italy.

Personalized care approaches to hepatitis C therapy: recent advances and future directions

INTRODUCTION

The introduction of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) has significantly transformed the therapeutic landscape for chronic C hepatitis virus (HCV) infection. However, there is still room for further improvement in optimizing therapy efficacy and minimizing adverse effects.

AREAS COVERED

This review is devoted to the rationale for adopting a personalized approach to HCV therapy. Specifically, we explore the role of host-related factors, such as sex or the presence of comorbidities. We thoroughly examine the implications of commonly encountered comorbidities, including HIV infection, chronic renal disease, liver cirrhosis, and other chronic viral hepatitis infections. Additionally, we discuss the prevalent drug-to-drug interactions between DAAs and other medications, while providing guidance on their management. Finally, we investigate viral-related issues that can influence treatment outcomes, such as viral genotype, quasi-species, and the presence of resistance-associated mutations.

EXPERT OPINION

Despite pivotal trials demonstrating efficacy rates exceeding 90% for currently available DAA regimens, there are still opportunities to optimize therapy outcomes and tailor treatment to each patient. This can be achieved through a meticulous evaluation of the patient's specific clinical conditions and comorbidities, a vigilant approach to manage potential drug interactions, and diligent patient follow-up.

Increasing and sustaining blood-borne virus screening in Spain and Portugal throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: a multi-center quality improvement intervention

Background

Around 57,000 people in Spain and Portugal currently living with HIV or chronic hepatitis C are unaware of their infection. The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted screening efforts for these infections. We designed an intervention to increase and sustain opportunistic blood-borne virus (BBV) screening and linkage to care (SLTC) by implementing the TEST model.

Methods

The Plan Do Study Act (PDSA) method of quality improvement (QI) was implemented in 8 healthcare organizations (HCOs), including four hospitals, two clusters of community health centers, and two community-based organizations (CBOs). Baseline assessment included a review of BBV SLTC practices, testing volume, and results 12 months before the intervention. Changes in BBV testing rates over time were measured before, during, and after the COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020. A mixed ANOVA model was used to analyze the possible effect on testing volumes among HCOs over the three study periods.

Intervention

BBV testing was integrated into normal clinical flow in all HCOs using existing clinical infrastructure and staff. Electronic health record (EHR) systems were modified whenever possible to streamline screening processes, implement systemic institutional policy changes, and promote QI.

Results

Two years after the launch of the intervention in screening practices, testing volumes increased by 116%, with formal healthcare settings recording larger increases than CBOs. The start of the COVID-19 lockdowns was accompanied by a global 60% decrease in testing in all HCOs. Screening emergency department patients or using EHR systems to automate screening showed the highest resilience and lowest reduction in testing. HCOs recovered 77% of their testing volume once the lockdowns were lifted, with CBOs making the fullest recovery. Globally, enhanced screening techniques enabled HCOs to diagnose a total of 1,860 individuals over the research period.

Conclusions

Implementation of the TEST model enabled HCOs to increase and sustain BBV screening, even during COVID-19 lockdowns. Although improvement in screening was noted in all HCOs, additional work is needed to develop strong patient linkage to care models in challenging times, such as global pandemics.

A territory-wide opportunistic, hospital-based HCV screening in the general population from northern Italy: The 1969-1989 birth-cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The World Health Organization (WHO) goal of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination by 2030 rose awareness about the need of screening plans, worldwide. In Italy, graduated screening starting from people born in 1969-1989 might be the most-effective strategy. We performed an opportunistic HCV screening study in the general population attending health facilities in Lombardy region, Northern Italy.

METHODS

This is a prospective, multicenter, territory-wide, opportunistic study supported by the Regional Government of Lombardy, Italy. Between June 2022 and December 2022, all subjects born in 1969-1989, hospitalized or accessing blood collection centres were offered anti-HCV and HCV-RNA tests. Patients with known anti-HCV positivity and/or previous anti-HCV treatment were excluded. Demographic features were uploaded into a regional web-based platform.

RESULTS

In total, 120 193 individuals were screened in 75 centres. Mean age was 44 (±6) years, 65.2% were females, 83.7% were tested at blood collection centres. Anti-HCV tested positive in 604 (0.50%) subjects: mean age 47 (±5), 51.1% females. HCV seroprevalence was higher in males (p < 0.00001), elderly (p < 0.00001) and in- vs. outpatients (p = 0.0009). HCV-RNA was detectable in 125 out of 441 (28.3%) anti-HCV positive subjects. Actively infected patients were 46 (±6) years old, mainly males (56.8%). The overall prevalence of active HCV infection was 0.10%, higher in elderly (p = 0.0003) and in in-patients (p = 0.0007). Among 93 HCV-RNA positive patients, the median age was 48 years, 58% males, 62% Italian born, median HCV-RNA levels were 6,1 log IU/mL, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) values 5.5 (3.1-29.9) kPa and ALT levels 48 U/L.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of active HCV infection in the 1969-1989 population attending health facilities in Lombardy was low. Most viremic patients were Italian-born, with mild liver disease but high-HCV-RNA levels. Due to the higher prevalence in the elderly, the extension of such opportunistic screening programs to lower birth cohorts would be warranted.

Forecasting the long-term impact of COVID-19 on hepatitis C elimination plans in Italy: A mathematical modelling approach

BACKGROUND

Italy has a high HCV prevalence, and despite the approval of a dedicated fund for 'Experimental screening' for 2 years, screening has not been fully implemented. We aimed to evaluate the long-term impact of the persisting delay in HCV elimination after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Italy.

METHODS

We used a mathematical, probabilistic modelling approach evaluating three hypothetical 'Inefficient', 'Efficient experimental' and 'WHO Target' screening scenarios differing by treatment rates over time. A Markov chain for liver disease progression evaluated the number of active infections, decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and HCV liver-related deaths up to the years 2030 and 2050.

RESULTS

The 'WHO Target' scenario estimated 3900 patients with DC and 600 with HCC versus 4400 and 600 cases, respectively, similar for both 'Inefficient' and 'Efficient experimental' screening up to 2030. A sharp (10-fold) decrease in DC and HCC was estimated by the 'WHO Target' scenario compared with the other two scenarios in 2050; the forecasted number of DC was 420 cases versus 4200 and 3800 and of HCC <10 versus 600 and 400 HCC cases by 'WHO Target,' 'Inefficient' and 'Efficient experimental' scenarios, respectively. A significant decrease of the cumulative estimated number of liver-related deaths was observed up to 2050 by the 'WHO Target' scenario (52000) versus 'Inefficient' or 'Efficient experimental' scenarios (79 000 and 74 000 liver-related deaths, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimates highlight the need to extensively and efficiently address HCV screening and cure of HCV infection in order to avoid the forecasted long-term HCV adverse outcomes in Italy.

Country-Wide HCV Elimination Strategies Need to Reach Older Patients in the General Population: The Italian Experience

HCV infection is still a major burden worldwide, and most countries are not on track to meet the WHO 2030 elimination goal. The current challenge is to identify individuals to be treated. In this study, we will describe the trend of new DAA prescriptions and the changes over time in terms of the characteristics of patients starting antiviral therapy in our unit. Data of 1646 hepatitis C patients who started therapy during the period of 2015-2022 regarding annual number of prescriptions, age, gender, nationality, HCV genotype, provenance, and liver disease severity were analyzed. We observed a peak in the number of new prescriptions in 2018 and a downward trend starting in 2019. Patients from the general population, centers for addictions, and prison differed significantly. The mean age in the general population remained above 60 years, the percentage of patients from centers for addictions and prison increased and, after 2016, there was no significant change in the percentage of patients with F3-F4 fibrosis. As HCV screening and linkage-to-care pathways seem to be already well implemented and successful in centers for addictions and in prisons, efforts need to be focused on those of older age in the general population. To carry this out, the more structured involvement of different health professionals must be figured out.

Exploring Knowledge and Awareness of HCV Infection and Screening Test: A Cross-Sectional Survey Among an Italian Sample

Addressing HCV represents a public health priority, especially in Italy, which has the highest HCV prevalence in Europe. This study primarily aimed to explore knowledge about the HCV infection and awareness of the existence of the HCV screening test in Italy, before the implementation of awareness campaigns in 2022. An online cross-sectional survey was conducted (December 2021-January 2022). The primary outcomes were: Disease Knowledge Score (DKS), Prevention and Transmission Knowledge Score (PTKS) (for both: scoring from 0 to 100%, higher scores corresponded to higher knowledge), and being unaware of the existence of the HCV screening. The final sample consisted of 813 participants. The median DKS was 75% (IQR = 66.7-83.3), the median PTKS was 46.2% (IQR = 38.5-53.8), and 23.2% of participants were unaware of HCV screening. Higher education, health-related study or profession, history of accidental injuries, being affected by HCV and having actively searched for information on HCV had positive associations with DKS. LGBT males showed significantly lower DKS. Considering PTKS, participants affected by HCV the disease had a negative association with this score. Having a postgraduate education reduced the likelihood of not knowing about the HCV screening test, while having at least one family member affected by hepatitis C increased this probability. This study highlighted a concerning lack of knowledge about prevention and transmission, indicating a need for targeted education campaigns. The findings emphasized the importance of information and motivation and identified male LGBT + individuals as a vulnerable group with limited disease knowledge. Future research should concern the effectiveness of awareness campaigns.

From Prioritization to Universal Treatment: Successes and Challenges of Hepatitis C Virus Elimination in Italy

Italy has had the highest prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and mortality from HCV-related liver cancer in Europe. Although direct-acting antivirals (DAA) were initially restricted to persons with advanced fibrosis, their use has since been extended to all infected individuals; more than 244 000 persons have been treated to date. HCV liver-related mortality is expected to decline by 75% by 2030, achieving the World Health Organization target for mortality. However, Italy risks failing to meet the overall goal of eliminating HCV infection by 2030. In this light, €71.5 million have been allocated for screening initially specific target populations (persons who inject drugs, prison inmates, and the 1969-1989 birth cohort). Herein, we outline the challenges and recommendations for how to move Italy toward HCV elimination, including expanding screening programs in other populations, increasing awareness through strategic communication, sustaining DAA access, and tailoring care models to meet the needs of key populations.

Impacts of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme for viral hepatitis C: A cost-effectiveness model

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Egypt used to have one of the highest prevalences of HCV infection worldwide. The Egyptian Ministry of Health launched a national campaign for the detection and management of HCV to reduce its burden. This study aims to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the costs and benefits of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme.

METHODS

A disease burden and economic impact model was populated with the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme data to assess direct medical costs, health effects measured in disability-adjusted life years and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The scenario was compared to a historical base case, which assumed that no programme had been conducted.

RESULTS

Total number of viremic cases is expected to decrease in 2030 by 86% under the national screening and treatment programme, versus by 41% under the historical base case. Annual discounted direct medical costs are expected to decrease from $178 million in 2018 to $81 million by 2030 under the historical base case, while annual direct medical costs are estimated to have peaked in 2019 at $312 million before declining to $55 million by 2030 under the national screening and treatment programme. Under the programme, annual disability-adjusted life years are expected to decline to 127 647 by 2030, leading to 883 333 cumulative disability-adjusted life years averted over 2018-2030.

CONCLUSIONS

The national screening and treatment programme is highly cost-effective by the year 2021, cost-saving by 2029 and expected to save about $35 million in direct costs and $4705 million in indirect costs by 2030.

Securing wider EU commitment to the elimination of hepatitis C virus

In 2016, the Hepatitis B and C Public Policy Association (HepBCPPA), gathered all the main stakeholders in the field of hepatitis C virus (HCV) to launch the now landmark HCV Elimination Manifesto, calling for the elimination of HCV in the EU by 2030. Since then, many European countries have made progress towards HCV elimination. Multiple programmes-from the municipality level to the EU level-were launched, resulting in an overall decrease in viremic HCV infections and liver-related mortality. However, as of 2021, most countries are not on track to reach the 2030 HCV elimination targets set by the WHO. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a decrease in HCV diagnoses and fewer direct-acting antiviral treatment initiations in 2020. Diagnostic and therapeutic tools to easily diagnose and treat chronic HCV infection are now well established. Treating all patients with chronic HCV infection is more cost-saving than treating and caring for patients with liver-related complications, decompensated cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. It is more important than ever to reinforce and scale-up action towards HCV elimination. Yet, efforts urgently need the dedicated commitment of policymakers at all governmental and policy levels. Therefore, the third EU Policy Summit, held in March 2021, featured EU parliamentarians and other key decision makers to promote dialogue and take strides towards securing wider EU commitment to advance and achieve HCV elimination by 2030. We have summarized the key action points and reported the 'Call-to-Action' statement supported by all the major relevant European associations in the field.

Hepatitis C Virus Micro-Elimination Plan in Southern Italy: The "HCV ICEberg" Project

This study evaluates the feasibility of a local action program for HCV micro-elimination in highly endemic areas. Retrospective analysis: administrative and laboratory data (Local Health Unit, southern Italy) were integrated to quantize the anti-HCV-positive subjects not RNA tested and untreated HCV-infected subjects (2018-2022). Prospective analysis: all subjects admitted to a division of the LHU largest hospital (2021-2022) were tested for HCV, with linkage of active-infected patients to care. Overall, 49287 subjects were HCV-Ab tested: 1071 (2.2%) resulted positive without information for an HCV RNA test and 230 (0.5%) had an active infection not yet cured. Among 856 admitted subjects, 54 (6.3%) were HCV-Ab+ and 27 (3.0%) HCV RNA+. Of HCV-infected patients, 22.2% had advanced liver disease, highlighting the need for earlier diagnosis; 27.7% were unaware of HCV infection; and 20.4% were previously aware but never referred to a clinical center. Of these, 26% died and 74% received treatment. Our study emphasizes the value of an active HCV hospital case-finding program to enhance diagnosis in patients with several comorbidities and to easily link them to care. Our data strongly suggest extending this program to all hospital wards/access as a standard of care, particularly in highly endemic areas, to help HCV disease control and take steps in achieving the elimination goals.

Elimination of Hepatitis C in Southern Italy: A Model of HCV Screening and Linkage to Care among Hospitalized Patients at Different Hospital Divisions

Background: Free-of-charge HCV screening in some key populations and in 1969–1989 birth cohorts has been funded in Italy as the first step to diagnosing individuals who are infected but asymptomatic. The aim of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of an opportunistic HCV screening and its linkage to care. Methods: A hospital-based HCV screening was conducted as a routine test for in-patients admitted to the Evangelical Hospital Betania of Naples from January 2020 to May 2021. All consecutive in-patients were screened for the HCV antibody (HCV-Ab) at the time of their admission to the hospital, and those born prior to year 2000 were included in the study. HCV-RNA testing was required for those not previously treated and without antiviral treatment contraindications. For in-patients with an active infection, treatment started soon after hospital admission. Results: Among 12,665 inpatients consecutively screened, 510 (4%) were HCV-Ab positive. The HCV-Ab positivity rate increased with age, reaching the highest prevalence (9.49%) in those born before 1947. Among patients positive for HCV, 118 (23.1%) had been previously treated, 172 (33.9%) had been discharged before being tested for HCV-RNA, and 26 (5.1%) had not been tested for short life expectancy. Of 194 (38% of HCV-Ab+) patients who were tested for HCV-RNA, 91 (46.2%) were HCV-RNA positive. Of patients with active infection, 33 (36%) were admitted to the liver unit with signs of liver damage either not previously diagnosed or diagnosed but unlinked to care for HCV infection. Of the patients positive for HCV-RNA, 87 (95.6%) started treatment; all achieved sustained virological response. Conclusion: HCV active infection has been frequently found in patients with comorbidities admitted in the hospital in Southern Italy. To achieve HCV elimination in Italy, broader screening strategies are required. In addition to screening of the 1969–1989 birth cohort of individuals unaware of their infection status, diagnosis and linkage to care of patients with known liver damage is strictly required. Hospital screening is feasible, but prompt reflex testing for identifying HCV-active infections is necessary to increase diagnosis and subsequent linkage to care.

Implementation of HCV screening in the 1969-1989 birth-cohort undergoing COVID-19 vaccination

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The World Health Organization (WHO) goal of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination by 2030 relies on the scaling-up of both identification and linkage to care of the infected population, worldwide. In Italy, the estimated burden of HCV carriers who are unaware of their infection amounts to 200 000 persons, a projection that reinforces the need for broadening population access to effective screening programmes.

METHODS

A pivotal screening programme targeting subjects born between 1969 and 1989 has been conducted in Lombardy, Northern Italy, where point-of-care (POC) testing was offered for free concomitantly to COVID-19 vaccination.

RESULTS

Amongst 7219 subjects born between 1969 and 1989 who underwent HCV screening through POC, 7 (0.10%) subjects tested anti-HCV positive: 5 (0.07%) had confirmed anti-HCV positivity (Table 1) and 4 of them (0.05%) were HCV-RNA positive by standard confirmation tests.

CONCLUSIONS

This pivotal study demonstrated the feasibility of a POC-based anti-HCV screening programme in young adults undergoing COVID-19 vaccination. The prevalence of HCV infection in subjects born in the 1969-1989 cohort in Italy seems to be lower than previously estimated. Whether the extension of this programme to subjects born before 1969 could lead to improved screening effectiveness should be a matter of debate.

Epidemiology of HCV and HBV in a High Endemic Area of Southern Italy: Opportunities from the COVID-19 Pandemic-Standardized National Screening or One Tailored to Local Epidemiology?

Simple Summary

Epidemiological data on viral hepatitis are essential to optimize screening programs. For HCV, the Italian Health Ministry planned a cohort screening for those born in 1969–1989. In order to update the epidemiological data of viral hepatitis in a highly endemic area of Southern Italy and assess whether the screening programs currently planned by the Italian government for those born between 1969–1989 will be effective, a retrospective multicenter study was carried out enrolling all COVID-19 hospitalized patients screened for markers of HCV and HBV infection. Indeed, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in access to the national health system of an unselected population similar to the general one. Among the 2126 patients evaluated, HBsAg and HCV-Ab prevalence was 1.6% and 5.1%, respectively. For HCV infection, a bimodal distribution was observed, with peaks in the birth cohorts 1930–1939 and 1960–1969 (11.6% and 5.6%, respectively). An analysis of the screening period imposed (born: 1969–1989) demonstrates that only 17% of HCV infection could be captured. Thus, an alignment of the screening period (i.e., birth cohort 1960–1984) would capture 40% of cases. Data show a high endemicity of hepatitis virus in our geographic area and the need for a tailored regional screening program.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic led to the hospitalization of an unselected population with the possibility to evaluate the epidemiology of viral hepatitis. Thus, a retrospective multicenter study was conducted in an area of Southern Italy with the aim of assessing the prevalence of HCV and HBV markers and the ability of current screening program to capture cases. We evaluated 2126 hospitalized patients in seven COVID Centers of Naples and Caserta area in which 70% of the Campania population lives. HBsAg and HCV-Ab prevalence was 1.6% and 5.1%, respectively, with no differences between gender. Decade distribution for birth year shows a bimodal trend of HCV prevalence, with a peak (11.6%) in the decade 1930–1939 and a second peak (5.6%) for those born in 1960–1969. An analysis of the screening period imposed by the Italian government for those born between 1969 and 1989 shows that only 17% of cases of HCV infection could be captured. A small alignment of the screening period, i.e., those born from 1960 to 1984, would capture 40% of cases. The data confirm the high endemicity of our geographical area for hepatitis virus infections and underline the need for a tailored screening program according to the regional epidemiology.

Population-Based Testing for Undiagnosed Hepatitis C: A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Recognising the significant public health threat posed by hepatitis C, international targets have been established by the World Health Organization with the aim of eradicating the hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030. With the availability of safe and effective therapies, the greatest challenge to achieving elimination is the identification and treatment of those currently undiagnosed. This systematic review aimed to identify and appraise the international literature on the cost-effectiveness of birth cohort, universal, and age-based general population testing for identifying people with undiagnosed chronic HCV infection.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was undertaken in Medline, Embase and grey literature sources to identify studies published between 1 January 2000 and 17 July 2020. Retrieved citations were independently reviewed by two reviewers according to pre-defined eligibility criteria. Data extraction and critical appraisal were completed in duplicate. Study quality, relevance and credibility were assessed using the Consensus for Health Economic Criteria and the ISPOR questionnaires. All costs were reported in 2019 Irish Euro following adjustment for inflation and purchasing power parity. Willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of €20,000 and €45,000 were adopted as reference points for interpreting cost-effectiveness in the narrative synthesis. The systematic review is reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria.

RESULTS

Overall, 4622 citations were retrieved in the literature search. Of these, 27 studies met the inclusion criteria. Six (22%) of the 27 studies were rated as low quality, 17 (63%) were moderate quality and four (15%) were high quality. Compared with no testing or risk-based testing: 14 of 16 (88%) cost-utility analyses found that birth cohort testing was cost effective, eight of nine (89%) analyses found that universal testing was cost effective, and eight of eight (100%) analyses found that age-based general population testing was cost effective. Cost effectiveness was influenced by disease prevalence and progression, testing and treatment uptake, treatment eligibility of those identified by testing, the cost of treatment and the proportion of those treated that achieve sustained virological response.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the international evidence supports the potential cost effectiveness of birth cohort, universal, and age-based general population testing, but is caveated by study generalisability, specifically the transferability of findings from one jurisdiction to another, and institutional variations in healthcare delivery systems and budgetary constraints. The cost effectiveness of each approach will vary according to population- and health system-specific characteristics such as epidemiological context, testing coverage, linkage to care and capacity to treat. Given issues regarding the transferability of economic evaluations (for example, model inputs and assumptions) and the significant resources required to implement these interventions, jurisdiction-specific economic evaluations and budget impact analyses will likely be required to inform investment and implementation decisions.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO, CRD42019127159. Registered 29 April 2019.

Hepatitis C: Standard of Treatment and What to Do for Global Elimination

Hepatitis C virus infection has a substantial effect on morbidity and mortality worldwide because it is a cause of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, and liver-related death. Direct acting antiviral drugs available today have high efficacy and excellent safety and can be used in all patients with clinically evident chronic liver disease and in groups that demonstrate risk behaviors to reduce the spread of infection. The Global Health Strategy of WHO to eliminate hepatitis infection by 2030 assumes "a 90% reduction in new cases of chronic hepatitis C, a 65% reduction in hepatitis C deaths, and treatment of 80% of eligible people with HCV infections". In this review effective models and strategies for achieving the global elimination of HCV infection are analyzed. The screening strategies must be simple and equally effective in high-risk groups and in the general population; fast and effective models for appropriate diagnosis of liver disease are needed; strategies for direct acting antiviral drug selection must be cost-effective; linkage to care models in populations at risk and in marginalized social classes must be specifically designed and applied; strategies for obtaining an effective vaccine against HCV infection have yet to be developed.

Milestones to reach Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination in Italy: From free-of-charge screening to regional roadmaps for an HCV-free nation

Although Italy has been on track for Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination since 2019, it fell off track due to the decrease in the number of treated patients. HCV elimination in Italy will be possible if immediate action is taken. A health policy was implemented beginning in 2021, consisting of screening among key populations and birth cohorts (1969-1989), estimated to have a high prevalence of undiagnosed individuals. The active screening requires regional governance that manages the processes' complexity integrating a well-organized network between territory assistance and hospital to achieve an effective HCV care cascade. This document aims to support the regional decision-making process by defining paths for screening and linkage-to-care. Implementing active screening strategies beyond a risk-based approach is required as a General Practitioners' task. Simplified paths must be drawn for the key populations screening. The infrastructure built for COVID-19 vaccination could be used also for HCV screening. According to a multidisciplinary care delivery, screening should be supplemented with rapid linkage-to-care and treatment of newly diagnosed patients. The realization of the proactive screening during the first two years is vital because it will define the tracks for the whole HCV cost-effective screening of 1948-1988 birth cohorts in Italy.

A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions

BACKGROUND

Although an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from Northern to Southern Italy has been reported, the burden of asymptomatic individuals in different Italian regions is currently unknown.

METHODS

A probabilistic approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was applied to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. The model defined prevalence by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment rate, and migration rate from the Italian National database. Viraemic infection by age group was estimated for each region by main HCV transmission routes of individuals for stage F0-F3 (i.e. patients without liver cirrhosis and thus potentially asymptomatic) and F4 (patients with liver cirrhosis, thus potentially symptomatic).

RESULTS

By January 2020, it was estimated that there were 409,184 Italian individuals with HCV (prevalence of 0.68%; 95% CI: 0.54-0.82%), of which 300,171 (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.6%) were stage F0-F3. Considering all individuals with HCV in stage F0-F3, the geographical distributions (expressed as the proportion of HCV infected individuals by macroarea within the overall estimated number of F0-F3 individuals and prevalence values, expressed as the percentage of individuals with HCV versus the overall number of individuals for each macroarea) were as follows: North 42.1% (0.45%; 95% CI: 0.36-0.55%), Central 24.1% (0.61%; 95% CI: 0.48-0.74%), South 23.2% (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.61%), and the Isles 10.6% (0.49%; 95% CI: 0.39-0.59%). The population of people who inject drugs accounted for 50.4% of all individuals infected (F0-F3). Undiagnosed individuals (F0-F3) were ~ 15 years younger (⁓ 50 years) compared with patients with stage F4 (⁓ 65 years), with similar age distributions across macroareas. In contrast to what has been reported on HCV epidemiology in Italy, an increasing trend in the proportion of potentially undiagnosed individuals with HCV (absolute number within the F0-F3) from South (23.2%) to North (42.1%) emerged, independent of similar regional prevalence values.

CONCLUSION

This targeted approach, which addresses the specific profile of undiagnosed individuals, is helpful in planning effective elimination strategies by region in Italy and could be a useful methodology for other countries in implementing their elimination plans.

Prevalence of hepatitis B and C viral infections in hospitalized patients with increased liver enzyme levels and with no known history of hepatic disease

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Identification of asymptomatic hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) carriers is fundamental to reach the World Health Organization objective to eradicate viral hepatitis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the HBV and HCV prevalence among patients hospitalized for a non-liver-related disease but showing increased liver enzyme values.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All consecutive patients without history of hepatic disease but showing increased amino-transferase and/or gamma-glutamil-transpeptidase levels at admission to the Internal Medicine and Surgery divisions of the Messina University Hospital from 1st January to 31st December 2019 ("study group") were tested for HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) and anti-HCV antibody. Analogously, HBsAg and anti-HCV were tested for in all the individuals with normal liver enzyme values consecutively admitted from October 1st to December 31st, 2019 ("control group").

RESULTS

Of the 332 "study group" patients, 13 (3.9%) were anti-HCV positive versus 5/306 (1.6%) patients of the "control group" (p=0.008). HCV RNA was detected in 11/13 and in 0/5 anti-HCV patients of the "study group" and "control group", respectively (p=0.001). HBsAg was detected in 5 (1.5%) "study group" patients and in none of the "control group" (p=0.03). Prevalence of diabetes, arterial hypertension, and dyslipidaemia was comparable between the two groups, whereas 75/332 (22.3%) patients of the "study group" and 34/306 (11.1%) patients of the "control group" drank > 2 alcohol units/day (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Testing HBsAg and anti-HCV in subjects showing increased liver enzyme values may represent an efficacious tool to identify asymptomatic carriers of hepatitis virus infections.

Economic Consequences of Anti-HCV Treatment of Patients Diagnosed Through Screening in Italy: A Prospective Modelling Analysis

AIM

To evaluate the cost-consequences of the investment for anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment by the Italian National Health System (NHS) for patients who will be newly diagnosed through active HCV screening, implemented in Italy from 2020.

METHODS

A previously published Markov model was used to estimate the disease complications avoided and the associated savings over 20 years to treat a standardised population of 10,000 HCV-infected patients diagnosed as a result of screening. Disease progression probabilities and fibrosis stage distribution were based on previously reported data in the literature. Real-life treatment effectiveness and medical expenses for disease management were estimated starting from a representative cohort of HCV-treated patients in Italy (Italian Platform for the Study of Viral Hepatitis Therapies). The breakeven point in time (BPT) was defined as the years required for the initial investment in treatment to be recovered in terms of cumulative costs saved.

RESULTS

Over a 20-year time horizon, the treatment of 10,000 standardized patients diagnosed through active HCV screening results in 7769 avoided events of progression, which are associated with €838.73 million net savings accrued by the Italian NHS. The initial investment in treatment is recouped in 4.3 years in the form of savings from disease complications avoided.

CONCLUSION

Investment in treatment of newly diagnosed patients will bring a significant reduction in disease complications, which is associated with great economic benefits. This type of action can reduce the infection rate as well as the clinical and economic disease burden of HCV in Italy.

Optimizing diagnostic algorithms to advance Hepatitis C elimination in Italy: A cost effectiveness evaluation

OBJECTIVES

Optimized diagnostic algorithms to detect active infections are crucial to achieving HCV elimination. We evaluated the cost effectiveness and sustainability of different algorithms for HCV active infection diagnosis, in a context of a high endemic country for HCV infection.

METHODS

A Markov disease progression model, simulating six diagnostic algorithms in the birth cohort 1969-1989 over a 10-year horizon from a healthcare perspective was used. Conventionally diagnosis of active HCV infection is through detection of antibodies (HCV-Ab) detection followed by HCV-RNA or HCV core antigen (HCV-Ag) confirmatory testing either on a second sample or by same sample reflex testing. The undiagnosed and unconfirmed rates were evaluated by assays false negative estimates and each algorithm patients' drop-off. Age, liver disease stages distribution, liver disease stage costs, treatment effectiveness and costs were used to evaluate the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER).

RESULTS

The reference option was Rapid HCV-Ab followed by second sample HCV-Ag testing which produced the lowest QALYs (866,835 QALYs). The highest gains in health (QALYs=974,458) was obtained by HCV-RNA reflex testing which produced a high cost-effective ICER (€891/QALY). Reflex testing (same sample-single visit) vs two patients' visits algorithms, yielded the highest QALYs and high cost-effective ICERs (€566 and €635/QALY for HCV-Ag and HCV-RNA, respectively), confirmed in 99.9% of the 5,000 probabilistic simulations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data confirm, by a cost effectiveness point of view, the EASL and WHO clinical practice guidelines recommending HCV reflex testing as most cost effective diagnostic option vs other diagnostic pathways.

High Rates of Hidden HCV Infections among Hospitalized Patients Aged 55-85

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The WHO has solicited all countries to eliminate HCV by 2030. The Italian government started routine screening for HCV infection in January 2021, initially targeting subjects born between 1969 and 1989. With the aim of achieving micro-elimination, we designed a hospital-wide project focusing on inpatients born from 1935 to 1985 and conducted it in our institution.

METHOD

All inpatients aged 35 to 85, admitted from 10 February 2020 to 9 February 2021 for many different diseases and conditions underwent HCV antibody (HCVAb) testing by third-generation ELISA. When positive, reflex HCV RNA testing and genotyping were performed. Clinical history, fibrosis diagnosis, laboratory data and concomitant medications were available for all.

RESULTS

The HCV screening rate of inpatients was 100%. In total, 11,748 participants were enrolled, of whom 53.50% were male. The HCVAb positivity rate was 3.03%. The HCVAb rate increased with age and was higher for patients born between 1935 and 1944 (4.81%). The rate of HCV RNA positivity was 0.97%. The vast majority (80.70%) of HCV RNA-positive participants were 55 or older; in about 40% of cases, HCV RNA-positive patients were unaware of their infection. Although 16 patients died after HCV chronic infection diagnosis (two due COVID-19) or HCV treatment prescription (one due to COVID-19), 74.56% of patient HCV diagnoses were linked to HCV treatment, despite their co-morbidities. All patients older than 65 who died had an active HCV infection.

CONCLUSION

The present study revealed a rate of active HCV infections among inpatients lower than what has been reported in the past in the general population; this appears to be a result of the widespread use of pangenotypic direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). The overall rate of active infection was lower than the rate observed in the 1935-1954 cohort. The high rate of inpatients unaware of HCV infections and the high number of deaths among subjects with an active HCV infection born from 1935 to 1954, suggest that, at least in southern Italy, targeted screening of this birth cohort may be required to reduce the number of undiagnosed cases and hidden infections.

The impact of direct acting antivirals on hepatitis C virus disease burden and associated costs in four european countries

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We assessed the clinical and economic impact of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in England, Italy, Romania and Spain.

METHODS

An HCV progression Markov model was developed considering DAA eligibility and population data during the years 2015-2019. The period of time to recover the investment in DAAs was calculated as the cost saved by avoiding estimated clinical events for 1000 standardized treated patients. A delayed treatment scenario because of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was also developed.

RESULTS

The estimated number of avoided hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis and liver transplantations over a 20-year time horizon was: 1,057 in England; 1,221 in Italy; 1,211 in Romania; and 1,103 in Spain for patients treated during 2015-2016 and 640 in England; 626 in Italy; 739 in Romania; and 643 in Spain for patients treated during 2017-2019. The cost-savings ranged from € 45 to € 275 million. The investment needed to expand access to DAAs in 2015-2019 is estimated to be recovered in 6.5 years in England; 5.4 years in Italy; 6.7 years in Romania; and 4.5 years in Spain. A delay in treatment because of COVID-19 will increase liver mortality in all countries.

CONCLUSION

Direct-acting antivirals have significant clinical benefits and can bring substantial cost-savings over the next 20 years, reaching a Break-even point in a short period of time. When pursuing an exit strategy from strict lockdown measures for COVID-19, providing DAAs should remain high on the list of priorities in order to maintain HCV elimination efforts.

Missed linkage to care for patients who screened positive for Hepatitis C in a tertiary care centre: Results of the Telepass project

Italy is one of the countries on track with the WHO's agenda to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030. Healthcare facilities play a crucial role in seeking patients who are infected but have not yet been treated. We assessed the effectiveness of a recall strategy, named 'Telepass' project, for patients exposed to HCV infection who have not yet been linked to care in a large tertiary care centre. The 'Telepass' project was structured in two phases: (a) a retrospective analysis first identified all anti-HCV-positive subjects among patients who underwent pre-operative assessment in the facility in the course of one year; (b) a following prospective phase, aimed to recall patients in need either of further diagnostic tests (ie HCV-RNA) or treatment. A total of 12246 records of patients tested for HCV antibodies were reviewed. The overall prevalence of anti-HCV-positive subjects was 1.83% (224/12246) with a male/female ratio of 2.07. Out of the 224 anti-HCV-positive patients, 123 (54.91%) did not have documented HCV-RNA tests and were therefore selected for recall. Of these, 123 were reachable and 26 (21.13%) were successfully linked to care. Ten patients (38.46%) tested HCV-RNA positive and initiated treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). The Telepass study highlights that a recall strategy starting from internal hospital databases can help identify patients with chronic HCV infection who have not yet been linked to care, and provides an epidemiological insight into the prevalence of HCV infection in Italy in the late DAAs era.

Absolute targets for HCV elimination and national health policy paradigms: Foreseeing future requirements

The World Health Organization (WHO) targets for eliminating HCV by 2030 may be overambitious for many high-income countries. Recent analyses (ie, data from 2017 to 2019) show that only 11 countries are on track for meeting WHO's elimination targets. For a country to be truly on track, it is important that the majority of infected individuals be identified and treated. There is still a need for country and population-specific evaluations within the different HCV screening and treatment strategies available, in order to assess their cost-effectiveness and sustainability and support an evidence-based policy for HCV elimination. Any health policy model is affected by the diversity and quality of the available data and by gaps in data. Given the differences among countries, comparing progress based on fixed global targets will not necessarily be suitable in the same measure for each country. In a recent document, the European Collaborators of Polaris Observatory provide insight into the limitations of the current WHO targets. The absolute targets identified by each country in accordance with the measures set by WHO would be essential in reaching the HCV elimination. All analytic models to assess the progress towards HCV elimination are based on projections to 2030 not including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hepatitis-related services. With specific regard to the achievement of WHO hepatitis elimination goals, all measures that will be put in place during and after COVID-19 pandemic could be transferred in increasing diagnosis and linkage to care of people with hepatitis.

Addressing HCV Elimination Barriers in Italy: Healthcare Resource Utilization and Cost Impact Using 8 Weeks' Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir Therapy

Introduction

In Italy, hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is achievable; however, barriers remain to achieving the World Health Organization’s elimination targets, and have become more pronounced with the spread of COVID-19. Glecaprevir/pibrentasvir (G/P) is a direct-acting antiviral therapy for HCV, approved for 8-week treatment in patients without cirrhosis, and with compensated cirrhosis (CC). Previously, 12 weeks of therapy was recommended for patients with CC. Shortened treatment may reduce the burden on healthcare resources, allowing more patients to be treated. This study presents the benefits that 8-week vs 12-week treatment with G/P may have in Italy.

Methods

A multicohort Markov model was used to assess the collective number of healthcare visits and time on treatment with 8-week vs 12-week G/P in the HCV-infected population of Italy from 2019 to 2030, using healthcare resource data from post-marketing observational studies of G/P. Increased treatment capacity and downstream clinical and economic benefits were also assessed assuming the reallocation of saved healthcare visits to treat more patients.

Results

Modeled outcomes showed that by 2030, 8-week treatment saved 27,006 years on therapy compared with 12-week treatment, with 21,065 fewer hepatologist visits. Reallocating these resources to treat more patients could increase capacity to treat 5064 (1.4%) more patients with 8 weeks of G/P, all with CC. This increased treatment capacity would further avoid 2257 cases of end-stage liver disease, 893 liver-related deaths, and provide net savings to the healthcare system of nearly €70 million.

Conclusion

The modeled comparisons between 8- and 12-week treatment with G/P show that shorter treatment duration can lead to greater time and resource savings, both in terms of healthcare visits and downstream costs. These benefits have the potential to enable the treatment of more patients to overcome elimination barriers in Italy through programs aimed to engage and treat targeted HCV populations.

Estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV infected individuals in Italy: A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression

BACKGROUND

The universal treatment of diagnosed patients with chronic HCV infection has been widely conducted in Italy since 2017. However, the pool of individuals diagnosed but yet to be treated in Italy has been estimated to end around 2025, leaving a significant proportion of infected individuals undiagnosed/without care. Estimates of this population are currently unknown.

METHODS

A probabilistic modelling approach was applied to estimate annual historical HCV incident cases by their age-group (0-100 years) distribution from available literature and Italian National database (1952 to October 2019). Viraemic infection rates were modelled on the main infection routes in Italy: people who inject drugs (PWID), tattoos, sexual transmission, glass syringe use, blood transfusion and vertical transmission. Annual liver fibrosis stage transition probabilities were modelled using a Markov model. The number of HCV viraemic asymptomatic (fibrosis stage F0-F3:potentially undiagnosed/unlinked to care) and symptomatic (fibrosis stage F4: potentially linked to care) individuals was estimated.

RESULTS

By October 2019, total viraemic HCV individuals in Italy (excluding treated patients since 1992) were estimated to be 410,775 (0.68 % of current population of Italy; 95 % CI: 0.64-0.71%, based on the current Italian population), of which 281,809 (0.47 %; 95 % CI:0.35-0.60%) were fibrosis stage F0-F3. Among different high risk groups in stage F0-F3, the following distribution was estimated: PWID; 52.0 % (95 % CI:37.9-66.6 %), tattoo; 28.8 % (95 % CI:23-32.3 %), sexual transmission; 12.0 % (95 % CI:9.6-13.7 %), glass syringe and transfusion; 6.4 % (95 % CI:2.4-17.8 %), and vertical transmission; 0.7 % (95 % CI:0.4-1.2 %).

CONCLUSION

Under the assumption that most untreated HCV-infected individuals with stage F0-F3 are undiagnosed, more than 280,000 individuals are undiagnosed and/or unlinked to care in Italy. Marked heterogeneity across the major routes of HCV transmission was estimated. This modelling approach may be a useful tool to characterise the HCV epidemic profile also in other countries, based on country specific epidemiology and HCV main transmission routes.