Ecological and physiological thermal niches to understand distribution of Chagas disease vectors in Latin America

Climate change-induced degradation of expert range maps drawn for kissing bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) and long-standing current and future sampling gaps across the Americas

BACKGROUND

Kissing bugs are the vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease (CD). Despite their epidemiological relevance, kissing bug species are under sampled in terms of their diversity and it is unclear what biases exist in available kissing bug data. Under climate change, range maps for kissing bugs may become less accurate as species shift their ranges to track climatic tolerance.

OBJECTIVES

Quantify inventory completeness in available kissing bug data. Assess how well range maps are at conveying information about current distributions and potential future distributions subject to shift under climate change. Intersect forecasted changes in kissing bug distributions with contemporary sampling gaps to identify regions for future sampling of the group. Identify whether a phylogenetic signal is present in expert range knowledge as more closely related species may be similarly well or lesser understood.

METHODS

We used species distribution models (SDM), specifically constructed from Bayesian additive regression trees, with Bioclim variables, to forecast kissing bug distributions into 2100 and intersect these with current sampling gaps to identify priority regions for sampling. Expert range maps were assessed by the agreement between the expert map and SDM generated occurrence probability. We used classical hypothesis testing methods as well as tests of phylogenetic signal to meet our objectives.

FINDINGS

Expert range maps vary in their quality of depicting current kissing bug distributions. Most expert range maps decline in their ability to convey information about kissing bug occurrence over time, especially in under sampled areas. We found limited evidence for a phylogenetic signal in expert range map performance.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Expert range maps are not a perfect account of species distributions and may degrade in their ability to accurately convey distribution knowledge under future climates. We identify regions where future sampling of kissing bugs will be crucial for completing biodiversity inventories.

Range size positively correlates with temperature and precipitation niche breadths but not with dietary niche breadth in triatomine insects, vectors of Chagas disease

Ecological theory predicts that species that can utilise a greater diversity of resources and, therefore, have wider niche breadths should also occupy larger geographic areas (the 'niche breadth-range size hypothesis'). Here, we tested this hypothesis for a blood-sucking group of insects of medical significance: the Triatominae (aka 'kissing bugs') (Hemiptera: Reduviidae). Given that niches can be viewed from different perspectives, we tested this hypothesis based on both dietary and climatic niches. We assembled the most complete dataset of triatomine feeding patterns to date by reviewing 143 studies from the literature up to 2021 and tested whether the niche breadth-range size hypothesis held for this group for both dietary and climatic components of the niche. Temperature and precipitation niche breadths were estimated from macro-environmental variables, while diet breadth was calculated based on literature data that used PCR and/or ELISA to identify different types of hosts as blood sources per triatomine species. Our results showed that temperature and precipitation niche breadths, but not dietary breadth, were positively correlated with range sizes, independent of evolutionary history among species. These findings support the predictions from the range size-niche breadth hypothesis concerning climate but not diet, in Triatominae. It also shows that support for the niche breadth-range size hypothesis is dependent upon the niche axis under consideration, which can explain the mixed support for this hypothesis in the ecological literature.

Variety is the spice: The role of morphological variation of Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera, Reduviidae) at a macro-scale

Chagas disease is caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas, 1909). One of the primary vectors of T. cruzi in South America is Triatoma infestans (Klug, 1834). This triatomine species is distributed across a huge latitudinal gradient, inhabiting domiciliary , peridomiciliary , and wild environments. Its wide geographic distribution provides an excellent opportunity to study the relationships between environmental gradients and intraspecific morphological variation. In this study, we investigated variations in wing size and shape in T. infestans across six ecoregions. We aimed to address the following questions: How do wing size and shape vary on a regional scale, does morphological variation follow specific patterns along an environmental or latitudinal gradient, and what environmental factors might contribute to wing variation? Geometric morphometric methods were applied to the wings of 162 females belonging to 21 T. infestans populations, 13 from Argentina (n = 105), 5 from Bolivia (n = 42), and 3 from Paraguay (n = 15). A comparison of wing centroid size across the 21 populations showed significant differences. Canonical Variate Analysis (CVA) revealed significant differences in wing shape between the populations from Argentina, Bolivia, and Paraguay, although there was a considerable overlap, especially among the Argentinian populations. Well-structured populations were observed for the Bolivian and Paraguayan groups. Two analyses were performed to assess the association between wing size and shape, geographic and climatic variables: multiple linear regression analysis (MRA) for size and Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression for shape. The MRA showed a significant general model fit. Six temperature-related variables, one precipitation-related variable, and the latitude showed significant associations with wing size. The PLS analysis revealed a significant correlation between wing shape with latitude, longitude, temperature-related, and rainfall-related variables. Wing size and shape in T. infestans populations varied across geographic distribution. Our findings demonstrate that geographic and climatic variables significantly influence T. infestans wing morphology.

It is hot and cold here: the role of thermotolerance in the ability of spiders to colonize tree plantations in the southern Atlantic Forest

Worldwide, with the decline of natural habitats, species with reduced niche breadth (specialists) are at greater risk of extinction as they cannot colonise or persist in disturbed habitat types. However, the role of thermal tolerance as a critical trait in understanding changes in species diversity in disturbed habitats, e.g., due to forest replacement by tree plantations, is still understudied. To examine the role of thermal tolerance on the responses of specialist and generalist species to habitat disturbances, we measured and compared local temperature throughout the year and thermotolerance traits [upper (CTmax) and lower (CTmin) thermal limits] of the most abundant species of spiders from different guilds inhabiting pine tree plantations and native Atlantic Forests in South America. Following the thermal adaptation hypothesis, we predicted that generalist species would show a wider thermal tolerance range (i.e., lower CTmin and higher CTmax) than forest specialist species. As expected, generalist species showed significantly higher CTmax and lower CTmin values than specialist species with wider thermal tolerance ranges than forest specialist species. These differences are more marked in orb weavers than in aerial hunter spiders. Our study supports the specialisation disturbance and thermal hypotheses. It highlights that habitat-specialist species are more vulnerable to environmental changes associated with vegetation structure and microclimatic conditions. Moreover, thermal tolerance is a key response trait to explain the Atlantic Forest spider's ability (or inability) to colonise and persist in human-productive land uses.

From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease

In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) set the elimination of Chagas disease intradomiciliary vectorial transmission as a goal by 2020. After a decade, some progress has been made, but the new 2021-2030 WHO roadmap has set even more ambitious targets. Innovative and robust modelling methods are required to monitor progress towards these goals. We present a modelling pipeline using local seroprevalence data to obtain national disease burden estimates by disease stage. Firstly, local seroprevalence information is used to estimate spatio-temporal trends in the Force-of-Infection (FoI). FoI estimates are then used to predict such trends across larger and fine-scale geographical areas. Finally, predicted FoI values are used to estimate disease burden based on a disease progression model. Using Colombia as a case study, we estimated that the number of infected people would reach 506 000 (95% credible interval (CrI) = 395 000-648 000) in 2020 with a 1.0% (95%CrI = 0.8-1.3%) prevalence in the general population and 2400 (95%CrI = 1900-3400) deaths (approx. 0.5% of those infected). The interplay between a decrease in infection exposure (FoI and relative proportion of acute cases) was overcompensated by a large increase in population size and gradual population ageing, leading to an increase in the absolute number of Chagas disease cases over time. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Effect of brief exposures of anesthesia on thermotolerance and metabolic rate of the spotted-wing fly, Drosophila suzukii: Differences between sexes?

The spotted-wing fly, Drosophila suzukii, is a world-wide pest insect for which there is increasing interest in its physiological traits including metabolism and thermotolerance. Most studies focus only on survival to different time exposures to extreme temperatures, mainly in female flies. In addition, it has not been tested yet how anesthesia affects these measurements. We analyzed the effects of anesthesia by brief exposures to cold, anoxia by CO2 or N2 on three standard thermotolerance assays, as well as the aerobic metabolic rate in both sexes. For heat tolerance we measured CTmax by thermolimit respirometry, and CTmin and chill-coma recovery time for cold tolerance. Aerobic metabolism was calculated by CO2 production of individual flies in real time by open flow respirometry. Results showed that females have a significantly higher V̇CO2 for inactive (at 25 °C) and maximum metabolic rate than males. This difference is mainly explained by body mass and disappears after mass correction. Males had a more sensitive MR to temperature than females showed by a significantly higher Q10 (2.19 vs. 1.98, for males and females, respectively). We observed a significantly lower CTmin (X2 = 4.27, P = 0.03) in females (3.68 ± 0.38 °C) than males (4.56 ± 0.39 °C), although we did not find significant effects of anesthesia. In contrast, anesthesia significantly modifies CTmax for both sexes (F3,62 = 7.86, P < 0.001) with a decrease of the CTmax in cold-anesthetized flies. Finally, we found a significantly higher CTmax in females (37.87 ± 0.07 °C) than males (37.36 ± 0.09 °C). We conclude that cold anesthesia seems to have detrimental effects on heat tolerance, and females have broader thermotolerance range than males, which could help them to establish in invaded temperate regions with more variable environmental temperatures.

Higher temperatures reduce the number of Trypanosoma cruzi parasites in the vector Triatoma pallidipennis

Background

Relatively little is known about how pathogens transmitted by vector insects are affected by changing temperatures analogous to those occurring in the present global warming scenario. One expectation is that, like their ectothermic vectors, an increase in temperature could reduce their fitness. Here, we have investigated the effect of high temperatures on the abundance of Trypanosoma cruzi parasites during infection in the vector Triatoma pallidipennis.

Methods

We exposed T. pallidipennis nymphs to two strains (Morelos and Chilpancingo) of T. cruzi. Once infected, the fifth-instar bugs were distributed among three different temperature groups, i.e. 20, 30, and 34 °C, and the resulting parasites were counted when the bugs reached adulthood.

Results

The number of parasites increased linearly with time at 20 °C and, to a lesser extent, at 30 °C, especially in the Chilpancingo compared to the Morelos strain. Conversely, at 34 °C, the number of parasites of both strains decreased significantly compared to the other two temperatures.

Conclusions

These results suggest negative effects on the abundance of T. cruzi in T. pallidipennis at high temperatures. This is the first evidence of the effect of high temperatures on a pathogenic agent transmitted by an insect vector in the context of global warming. Further tests should be done to determine whether this pattern occurs with other triatomine species and T. cruzi strains.

Graphical abstract

Machine-learning model led design to experimentally test species thermal limits: The case of kissing bugs (Triatominae)

Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) determines habitat suitability of a species across geographic areas using macro-climatic variables; however, micro-habitats can buffer or exacerbate the influence of macro-climatic variables, requiring links between physiology and species persistence. Experimental approaches linking species physiology to micro-climate are complex, time consuming and expensive. E.g., what combination of exposure time and temperature is important for a species thermal tolerance is difficult to judge a priori. We tackled this problem using an active learning approach that utilized machine learning methods to guide thermal tolerance experimental design for three kissing-bug species: Triatoma infestans, Rhodnius prolixus, and Panstrongylus megistus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae), vectors of the parasite causing Chagas disease. As with other pathogen vectors, triatomines are well known to utilize micro-habitats and the associated shift in microclimate to enhance survival. Using a limited literature-collected dataset, our approach showed that temperature followed by exposure time were the strongest predictors of mortality; species played a minor role, and life stage was the least important. Further, we identified complex but biologically plausible nonlinear interactions between temperature and exposure time in shaping mortality, together setting the potential thermal limits of triatomines. The results from this data led to the design of new experiments with laboratory results that produced novel insights of the effects of temperature and exposure for the triatomines. These results, in turn, can be used to better model micro-climatic envelope for the species. Here we demonstrate the power of an active learning approach to explore experimental space to design laboratory studies testing species thermal limits. Our analytical pipeline can be easily adapted to other systems and we provide code to allow practitioners to perform similar analyses. Not only does our approach have the potential to save time and money: it can also increase our understanding of the links between species physiology and climate, a topic of increasing ecological importance.

Thermal performance of the Chagas disease vector, Triatoma infestans, under thermal variability

Vector-borne diseases (VBD) are particularly susceptible to climate change because most of the diseases' vectors are ectotherms, which themselves are susceptible to thermal changes. The Chagas disease is one neglected tropical disease caused by the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi. One of the main vectors of the Chagas disease in South America is Triatoma infestans, a species traditionally considered to be restricted to domestic or peridomestic habitats, but sylvatic foci have also been described along its distribution. The infestation of wild individuals, together with the projections of environmental changes due to global warming, urge the need to understand the relationship between temperature and the vector's performance. Here, we evaluated the impact of temperature variability on the thermal response of T. infestans. We acclimated individuals to six thermal treatments for five weeks to then estimate their thermal performance curves (TPCs) by measuring the walking speed of the individuals. We found that the TPCs varied with thermal acclimation and body mass. Individuals acclimated to a low and variable ambient temperature (18°C ± 5°C) exhibited lower performances than those individuals acclimated to an optimal temperature (27°C ± 0°C); while those individuals acclimated to a low but constant temperature (18°C ± 0°C) did not differ in their maximal performance from those at an optimal temperature. Additionally, thermal variability (i.e., ± 5°C) at a high temperature (30°C) increased performance. These results evidenced the plastic response of T. infestans to thermal acclimation. This plastic response and the non-linear effect of thermal variability on the performance of T. infestans posit challenges when predicting changes in the vector's distribution range under climate change.

Pattern of climate connectivity and equivalent niche of Triatominae species of the Phyllosoma complex

The Phyllosoma complex is a Triatominae (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) group of medical importance involved in Trypanosoma cruzi (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) transmission. Most of the members of this group are endemic and sympatric species with distribution in Mexico and the southern U.S.A. We employed MaxEnt to construct ecological niche models of nine species of Triatominae to test three hypothesis: (a) whether species with a broad climatic niche breadth occupy a broader geographical range than species with a narrow climatic breadth, (b) whether species with broad distribution present high degree of climatic fragmentation/isolation, which was tested through landscape metrics; and (c) whether the species share the same climatic niche space (niche conservatism) considered through an equivalence test implemented in ENMtools. Overall, our results suggest that the geographical distribution of this complex is influenced mainly by temperature seasonality where all suitable areas are places of current and potential transmission of T. cruzi. Niche breadth in the Phyllosoma complex is associated with the geographical distribution range, and the geographical range affects the climatic connectivity. We found no strong evidence of niche climatic divergence in members of this complex. We discuss the epidemiological implications of these results.

Geographic abundance patterns explained by niche centrality hypothesis in two Chagas disease vectors in Latin America

Ecoepidemiological scenarios for Chagas disease transmission are complex, so vector control measures to decrease human–vector contact and prevent infection transmission are difficult to implement in all geographic contexts. This study assessed the geographic abundance patterns of two vector species of Chagas disease: Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848) and Rhodnius pallescens (Barber, 1932) in Latin America. We modeled their potential distribution using the maximum entropy algorithm implemented in Maxent and calculated distances to their niche centroid by fitting a minimum-volume ellipsoid. In addition, to determine which method would accurately explain geographic abundance patterns, we compared the correlation between population abundance and the distance to the ecological niche centroid (DNC) and between population abundance and Maxent environmental suitability. The potential distribution estimated for T. maculata showed that environmental suitability covers a large area, from Panama to Northern Brazil. R. pallescens showed a more restricted potential distribution, with environmental suitability covering mostly the coastal zone of Costa Rica and some areas in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico, northern Colombia, Acre, and Rondônia states in Brazil, as well as a small region of the western Brazilian Amazon. We found a negative slope in the relationship between population abundance and the DNC in both species. R. pallecens has a more extensive potential latitudinal range than previously reported, and the distribution model for T. maculata corroborates previous studies. In addition, population abundance increases according to the niche centroid proximity, indicating that population abundance is limited by the set of scenopoetic variables at coarser scales (non-interactive variables) used to determine the ecological niche. These findings might be used by public health agencies in Latin America to implement actions and support programs for disease prevention and vector control, identifying areas in which to expand entomological surveillance and maintain chemical control, in order to decrease human–vector contact.

Modelling the climatic suitability of Chagas disease vectors on a global scale

The Triatominae are vectors for Trypanosoma cruzi, the aetiological agent of the neglected tropical Chagas disease. Their distribution stretches across Latin America, with some species occurring outside of the Americas. In particular, the cosmopolitan vector, Triatoma rubrofasciata, has already been detected in many Asian and African countries. We applied an ensemble forecasting niche modelling approach to project the climatic suitability of 11 triatomine species under current climate conditions on a global scale. Our results revealed potential hotspots of triatomine species diversity in tropical and subtropical regions between 21°N and 24°S latitude. We also determined the climatic suitability of two temperate species (T. infestans, T. sordida) in Europe, western Australia and New Zealand. Triatoma rubrofasciata has been projected to find climatically suitable conditions in large parts of coastal areas throughout Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia, emphasising the importance of an international vector surveillance program in these regions.

Thermal Tolerance Plasticity in Chagas Disease Vectors Rhodnius prolixus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) and Triatoma infestans

Temperature is recognized as the most influential abiotic factor on the distribution and dispersion of most insect species including Rhodnius prolixus (Stål, 1859) and Triatoma infestans (Klug, 1834), the two most important Chagas disease vectors. Although, these species thermotolerance range is well known their plasticity has never been addressed in these or any other triatomines. Herein, we investigate the effects of acclimation on thermotolerance range and resistance to stressful low temperatures by assessing thermal critical limits and 'chill-coma recovery time' (CCRT), respectively. We found positive effects of acclimation on thermotolerance range, especially on the thermal critical minimum of both species. In contrast, CCRT did not respond to acclimation in either. Our results reveal the plasticity of these Triatomines thermal tolerance in response to a wide range of acclimation temperatures. This presumably represents a physiological adaptation to daily or seasonal temperature variation with concomitant improvement in dispersion potential.

Thermal Tolerance and Prediction of Northern Distribution of the Crapemyrtle Bark Scale (Hemiptera: Eriococcidae)

Physiological limits of non-native species to environmental factors are critical for their establishment and spread in the adventive range. The crapemyrtle bark scale, Acanthococcus lagerstroemiae (Kuwana), is a major pest of crapemyrtles. Despite concerns on its rapid spread, there is a lack of information on potential distribution range of this scale in the United States. To understand this scale's distribution potential, its thermal tolerance was evaluated using higher and lower thermal limits. Exposure time leading to 50 and 90% mortality (Lt50 and Lt90) at extreme low or high temperatures were measured under controlled conditions. A model was then built to fit temperature data of cold fronts from 2001 to 2016 and to calculate potential mortalities along latitudes. Isothermal lines delineated at 90% mortality were defined as the northern limits. Modeling results suggested that A. lagerstroemiae nymphs collected in summer could tolerate heat; however, they were more susceptible to cold temperatures. Laboratory assays suggested that cold tolerance of A. lagerstroemiae nymphs varied from summer to winter. For example, SCP of nymphs collected in summer was higher than those collected in fall (-21 vs. -27°C), and the exposure time leading to Lt90 at 0°C was also different, which were 8 versus 50 h comparing nymphs collected in summer versus fall. Our prediction suggested that A. lagerstroemiae is likely to be limited by cold temperatures along the 43° N latitude. Based on these results, integrated management strategies can be developed for A. lagerstroemiae within the predicted range.

Genetic variation for tolerance to high temperatures in a population of Drosophila melanogaster

The range of thermal tolerance is one of the main factors influencing the geographic distribution of species. Climate change projections predict increases in average and extreme temperatures over the coming decades; hence, the ability of living beings to resist these changes will depend on physiological and adaptive responses. On an evolutionary scale, changes will occur as the result of selective pressures on individual heritable differences. In this work, we studied the genetic basis of tolerance to high temperatures in the fly Drosophila melanogaster and whether this species presents sufficient genetic variability to allow expansion of its upper thermo-tolerance limit. To do so, we used adult flies derived from a natural population belonging to the Drosophila Genetic Reference Panel, for which genomic sequencing data are available. We characterized the phenotypic variation of the upper thermal limit in 34 lines by measuring knockdown temperature (i.e., critical thermal maximum [CTmax]) by exposing flies to a ramp of increasing temperature (0.25°C/min). Fourteen percent of the variation in CTmax is explained by the genetic variation across lines, without a significant sexual dimorphism. Through a genomewide association study, 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with the CTmax were identified. In most of these SNPs, the less frequent allele increased the upper thermal limit suggesting that this population harbors raw genetic variation capable of expanding its heat tolerance. This potential upper thermal tolerance increase has implications under the global warming scenario. Past climatic records show a very low incidence of days above CTmax (10 days over 25 years); however, future climate scenarios predict 243 days with extreme high temperature above CTmax from 2045 to 2070. Thus, in the context of the future climate warming, rising temperatures might drive the evolution of heat tolerance in this population by increasing the frequency of the alleles associated with higher CTmax.

The costs of living in a thermal fluctuating environment for the tropical haematophagous bug, Rhodnius prolixus

Environmental temperature is an abiotic factor with great influence on biological processes of living beings. Jensen's inequality states that for non-lineal processes, such as most biological phenomena, the effects of thermal fluctuations cannot be predicted from mean constant temperatures. We studied the effect of daily temperature fluctuation (DTF) on Rhodnius prolixus, a model organism in insect physiology, and an important vector of Chagas disease. We measured development time from egg to adult, fecundity, fertility, body mass reduction rate (indirect measurement of nutrient consumption rates) and survival after a single blood meal. Insects were reared at constant temperature (24 °C), or with a DTF (17-32 °C; mean = 24 °C). Taking into account Jensen's inequality as well as the species tropical distribution, we predict that living in a variable thermal environment will have higher costs than inhabiting a stable one. Development time and fertility were not affected by DTF. However, fecundity was lower in females reared at DTF than at constant temperature, and males had higher body mass reduction rate and lower survival in the DTF regime, suggesting higher costs associated to fluctuating thermal environments. At a population and epidemiological level, higher energetic costs would imply an increase in nutrient consumption rate, biting frequency, and, consequently increasing disease transmission from infected insects. On the contrary, lower fecundity could be associated with a decrease in population growth. This knowledge will not only provide basic information to the field of insect ecophysiology, but also could be a useful background to develop population and disease transmission models.