Drivers of leaf-out phenology and their implications for species invasions: insights from Thoreau's Concord

Variation in the timing and duration of autumn leaf phenology among temperate deciduous trees, native shrubs and non-native shrubs

The timing and duration of autumn leaf phenology marks important transitions in temperate deciduous forests, such as, start of senescence, declining productivity and changing nutrient cycling. Phenological research on temperate deciduous forests typically focuses on upper canopy trees, overlooking the contribution of other plant functional groups like shrubs. Yet shrubs tend to remain green longer than trees, while non-native shrubs, in particular, tend to exhibit an extended growing season that confers a competitive advantage over native shrubs. We monitored leaf senescence and leaf fall (2017-2020) of trees and shrubs (native and non-native) in an urban woodland fragment in Wisconsin, USA. Our findings revealed that, the start of leaf senescence did not differ significantly between vegetation groups, but leaf fall started (DOY 273) two weeks later in shrubs. Non-native shrubs exhibited a considerably delayed start (DOY 262) and end of leaf senescence (DOY 300), with leaf-fall ending (DOY 315) nearly four weeks later than native shrubs and trees. Overall, the duration of the autumn phenological season was longer for non-native shrubs than either native shrubs or trees. Comparison of the timing of spring phenophases with the start and end of leaf senescence revealed that when spring phenology in trees starts later in the season senescence also starts later and ends earlier. The opposite pattern was observed in native shrubs. In conclusion, understanding the contributions of plant functional groups to overall forest phenology requires future investigation to ensure accurate predictions of future ecosystem productivity and help address discrepancies with remote sensing phenometrics.

Characterizing spring phenology in a temperate deciduous urban woodland fragment: trees and shrubs

Phenological research in temperate-deciduous forests typically focuses on upper canopy trees, due to their overwhelming influence on ecosystem productivity and function. However, considering that shrubs leaf out earlier and remain green longer than trees, they play a pivotal role in ecosystem productivity, particularly at growing season extremes. Furthermore, an extended growing season of non-native shrubs provides a competitive advantage over natives. Here, we report spring phenology, budburst, leaf-out, and full-leaf unfolded (2017-2021) of a range of co-occurring species of tree (ash, American basswood, red oak, white oak, and boxelder) and shrub (native species: chokecherry, pagoda dogwood, nannyberry, American wild currant and Eastern wahoo, and non-native species: buckthorn, honeysuckle, European privet, and European highbush cranberry) in an urban woodland fragment in Wisconsin, USA, to determine how phenology differed between plant groups. Our findings show that all three spring phenophases of shrubs were 3 weeks earlier (p < 0.05) than trees. However, differences between shrubs groups were only significant for the later phenophase; full-leaf unfolded, which was 6 days earlier (p < 0.05) for native shrubs. The duration of the spring phenological season was 2 weeks longer (p < 0.05) for shrubs than trees. These preliminary findings demonstrate that native shrubs, at this site, start full-leaf development earlier than non-native species suggesting that species composition must be considered when generalizing whether phenologies differ between vegetation groups. A longer time series would be necessary to determine future implications on ecosystem phenology and productivity and how this might impact forests in the future, in terms of species composition, carbon sequestration, and overall ecosystem dynamics.

Impact of Preseason Climate Factors on Vegetation Photosynthetic Phenology in Mid-High Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

During the period preceding the vegetation growing season (GS), temperature emerges as the pivotal factor determining phenology in northern terrestrial ecosystems. Despite extensive research on the impact of daily mean temperature (Tmean) during the preseason period, the influence of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on vegetation photosynthetic phenology (i.e., the impact of the plant photosynthetic cycle on seasonal time scale) has largely been neglected. Using a long-term vegetation photosynthetic phenology dataset and historical climate data, we examine vegetation photosynthetic phenology dynamics and responses to climate change across the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere from 2001 to 2020. Our data reveal an advancing trend in the start of the GS (SOS) by -0.15 days per year (days yr-1), affecting 72.1% of the studied area. This is particularly pronounced in western Canada, Alaska, eastern Asia, and latitudes north of 60°N. Conversely, the end of the GS (EOS) displays a delaying trend of 0.17 days yr-1, impacting 62.4% of the studied area, especially northern North America and northern Eurasia. The collective influence of an earlier SOS and a delayed EOS has resulted in the notably prolonged length of the GS (LOS) by 0.32 days yr-1 in the last two decades, affecting 70.9% of the studied area, with Eurasia and western North America being particularly noteworthy. Partial correlation coefficients of the SOS with preseason Tmean, DTR, and accumulated precipitation exhibited negative values in 98.4%, 93.0%, and 39.2% of the study area, respectively. However, there were distinct regional variations in the influence of climate factors on the EOS. The partial correlation coefficients of the EOS with preseason Tmean, DTR, and precipitation were positive in 58.6%, 50.1%, and 36.3% of the region, respectively. Our findings unveil the intricate mechanisms influencing vegetation photosynthetic phenology, holding crucial significance in understanding the dynamics of carbon sequestration within terrestrial ecosystems amidst climate change.

Leaf gene expression trajectories during the growing season are consistent between sites and years in American beech

Transcriptomics provides a versatile tool for ecological monitoring. Here, through genome-guided profiling of transcripts mapping to 33 042 gene models, expression differences can be discerned among multi-year and seasonal leaf samples collected from American beech trees at two latitudinally separated sites. Despite a bottleneck due to post-Columbian deforestation, the single nucleotide polymorphism-based population genetic background analysis has yielded sufficient variation to account for differences between populations and among individuals. Our expression analyses during spring-summer and summer-autumn transitions for two consecutive years involved 4197 differentially expressed protein coding genes. Using Populus orthologues we reconstructed a protein-protein interactome representing leaf physiological states of trees during the seasonal transitions. Gene set enrichment analysis revealed gene ontology terms that highlight molecular functions and biological processes possibly influenced by abiotic forcings such as recovery from drought and response to excess precipitation. Further, based on 324 co-regulated transcripts, we focused on a subset of GO terms that could be putatively attributed to late spring phenological shifts. Our conservative results indicate that extended transcriptome-based monitoring of forests can capture diverse ranges of responses including air quality, chronic disease, as well as herbivore outbreaks that require activation and/or downregulation of genes collectively tuning reaction norms maintaining the survival of long living trees such as the American beech.

Pollen Emissions of Subpollen Particles and Ice Nucleating Particles

Pollen grains significantly contribute to the aerosol population, and levels are predicted to increase in the future. Under humid atmospheric conditions, pollen grains can rupture creating pollen grain fragments referred to as subpollen particles (SPPs) which are dispersed into the atmosphere with wind. In this laboratory study, SPP emission factors were determined for ryegrass, Lolium sp., and giant ragweed,Ambrosia trifida, in terms of the number of SPPs produced per pollen grain and the number of SPPs produced per m2, which were compared to previously measured live oak,Quercus virginiana, emission factors. The SPP emission factors were 4.9 × 1013 ± 4.3 × 1013 SPPs per m2 for ryegrass, 1.3 × 1015 ± 1.1 × 1015 SPPs per m2 for giant ragweed, and 1.1 × 1015 ± 1.6 × 1015 SPPs per m2 for live oak. SPPs and whole pollen grains from these species were evaluated for their ice nucleation efficiency in immersion and contact mode freezing. Measurements of the ice nucleation efficiency indicate that SPPs are weakly effective INPs in immersion mode, but that pollen grains represent a source of moderately efficient INPs in immersion and contact modes.

Canopy composition drives variability in urban growing season length more than the heat island effect

The elevated heat of urban areas compared to their surroundings makes humid temperate cities a useful preview of future climate effects on natural forest phenology. The utility of this proxy rests on the expectation that trees in urban areas alter their phenology in response to warmer site conditions in spring and fall. However, it is possible that apparent lengthening of the growing season is instead governed by human-driven tree species selection and plant functional type (PFT; trees, shrubs, turfgrass) heterogeneity typical of managed landscapes. Without the use of highly spatially and temporally resolved remote sensing data, the roles of tree taxonomy and local site characteristics (e.g., impervious cover) in controlling phenology remain confounded. To understand the drivers of earlier start of season (SOS) and later end of season (EOS) among urban trees, we estimated individual tree phenology using >130 high-resolution satellite images per year (2018-2020) for ~10,000 species-labeled trees in Washington, DC. We found that species identity alone accounted for 4× more variability in the timing of SOS and EOS compared with a tree's planting location characteristics. Additionally, the urban mix of PFTs may be more responsible for apparent advances in SOS (by between 1.8 ± 1.3 and 3.5 ± 1.3 days) than heat per se. The results of this study caution against associating longer growing seasons in cities-observed in moderate to coarse resolution remote sensing imagery-to within-species phenological plasticity and demonstrate the power of high-resolution satellite data for tracking tree phenology in biodiverse environments.

How consistently do species leaf-out or flower in the same order? Understanding the factors that shape this characteristic of plant communities

Plant species are frequently reported to undergo leaf-out and flowering in a consistent order from 1 year to the next; however, only a limited number of these findings arise from studies encompassing many species or sites. Here, we evaluate the consistency in the order species leafed out in the northeastern United States using observations contributed to the USA National Phenology Network's Nature's Notebook platform. We repeated this analysis for flowering, evaluating a total of 132 species across 84 sites. We documented a relatively high degree of consistency in the order of both events among individual plants, with higher consistency in flowering. A small number of species pairs exhibited very high consistency in phenological order across several sites. The majority of species pairs exhibited variability in how consistently they underwent either leaf-out or flowering from site to site, which could be the result of either plastic or locally adaptive responses. Our investigation revealed that neither functional type nor seasonal position played a major role in shaping how consistently species leafed out or flowered in the same order. Instead, we found the number of days separating the events and interannual variability in timing to be the most influential factors driving the consistency in ordering.

Temperature sensitivity of leaf flushing in 12 common woody species in eastern China

Leaf phenology is one of the most reliable indicators of global warming in temperate regions because it is highly sensitive to temperatures. Temperature sensitivity (S_T) is defined as the values of changed days of leaf flushing date (LUD) per degree increase in temperatures. Climate warming substantially advanced LUD in the temperate region, but its effect on S_T of LUD is still not clear. We used spring phenological records of 12 woody plants in eastern China in the years of 1983-2014 to explore temporal and spatial changes of LUD and S_T. Furthermore, we compared the difference of S_T and preseason temperatures in two periods (1983-1997 and 2000-2014), and explored the main factors regulating S_T. The results showed that the average LUD significantly advanced (-2.7 days per decade). The mean LUD over the period 1983-2014 was in day of the year (DOY) 87 ± 7 across sites and species for the early leaf flushing species (EFS), and mean DOY 102 ± 5 for the late leaf flushing species (LFS). LUD was earlier in low latitude than that in high latitude. S_T of Armeniaca vulgaris was the most sensitive to temperature across all sites (-3.66 d °C^-1), while Firmiana simplex was the most insensitive (-2.37 d °C^-1). LUD of EFS was more sensitive to temperature warming than that of LFS. At the same site, LUD of EFS would advance more obviously than that of LFS under global warming. For all species, S_T decreased significantly with shorter preseason length and warmer temperatures at the preseason end. Our results had demonstrated a strong relationship between S_T and the preseason length (mean temperature at the preseason end).

A century of climate warming results in growing season extension: Delayed autumn leaf phenology in north central North America

Shifts in the timing of key leaf phenological events including budburst, foliage coloration, and leaf fall have been observed worldwide and are consistent with climate warming. Quantifying changes in growing season length (GSL) because of shifts in both spring and autumn leaf phenology is crucial for modeling annual net ecosystem carbon uptake. However, a lack of long-term autumn phenology datasets has prevented assessment of these growing season level changes. We investigated shifts in growing season length, budburst, foliage coloration, and leaf fall over the past century in seven native hardwood species using a historic leaf phenology dataset collected in Wauseon, OH from 1883-1912 paired with contemporary observations. Using long-term meteorological data, we investigated temperature and precipitation trends over 130 years. Finally, we correlated spring and fall phenophases with monthly temperature and precipitation variables from the twelve months preceding that phenophase using historical meteorological data. We found significant extension of growing season length over the past century in five of the seven study species (ANOVA, p < 0.05) which resulted primarily from delayed foliage coloration rather than from earlier budburst in contrast to the few other studies assessing total GSL change. Our results suggest that most of the leaf phenological studies that investigate only budburst are disregarding crucial information about the end of the growing season that is essential for accurately predicting the effects of climate change in mixed-species temperate deciduous forests.

Drivers of Decadal Carbon Fluxes Across Temperate Ecosystems

Long-running eddy covariance flux towers provide insights into how the terrestrial carbon cycle operates over multiple timescales. Here, we evaluated variation in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO₂) across the Chequamegon Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study AmeriFlux core site cluster in the upper Great Lakes region of the USA from 1997 to 2020. The tower network included two mature hardwood forests with differing management regimes (US-WCr and US-Syv), two fen wetlands with varying levels of canopy sheltering and vegetation (US-Los and US-ALQ), and a very tall (400 m) landscape-level tower (US-PFa). Together, they provided over 70 site-years of observations. The 19-tower Chequamegon Heterogenous Ecosystem Energy-balance Study Enabled by a High-density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 campaign centered around US-PFa provided additional information on the spatial variation of NEE. Decadal variability was present in all long-term sites, but cross-site coherence in interannual NEE in the earlier part of the record became weaker with time as non-climatic factors such as local disturbances likely dominated flux time series. Average decadal NEE at the tall tower transitioned from carbon source to sink to near neutral over 24 years. Respiration had a greater effect than photosynthesis on driving variations in NEE at all sites. Declining snowfall offset potential increases in assimilation from warmer springs, as less-insulated soils delayed start of spring green-up. Higher CO₂ increased maximum net assimilation parameters but not total gross primary productivity. Stand-scale sites were larger net sinks than the landscape tower. Clustered, long-term carbon flux observations provide value for understanding the diverse links between carbon and climate and the challenges of upscaling these responses across space.

Was Henry David Thoreau a Good Naturalist? An Approach for Assessing Data from Historical Natural History Records

Ecologists are increasingly combining historical observations made by naturalists with modern observations to detect the ecological effects of climate change. This use of historical observations raises the following question: How do we know that historical data are appropriate to use to answer current ecological questions? In the present article, we address this question for environmental philosopher Henry David Thoreau, author of Walden. Should we trust his observations? We qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate Thoreau's observations using a three-step framework: We assess the rigor, accuracy, and utility of his observations to investigate changes in plants and animals over time. We conclude that Thoreau was an accurate observer of nature and a reliable scientist. More importantly, we describe how this simple three-step approach could be used to assess the accuracy of other scientists and naturalists.

Climate warming-driven phenological shifts are species-specific in woody plants: evidence from twig experiment in Kashmir Himalaya

Experimental evidences in support of climate warming-driven phenological shifts are still scarce, particularly from the developing world. Here, we investigated the effect of experimental warming on flowering phenology of selected woody plants in Kashmir Himalaya. We selected the twigs of four congeneric pairs of temperate woody species (Prunus, Populus, Ulmus, Viburnum)-typical spring-flowering plants in the region. Using randomised block design, we monitored these winter dormant twigs in controlled growth chambers to study the effect of different temperature regimes (9, 17, 20 and 23 °C) and species identity on the patterns of phenological shifts. We observed a significant phenological shift in all the species showing preponement in the first flower out and senescence phases ranging from 0.56 to 3.0 and 0.77 to 4.04 days per degree increase in temperature, respectively. The duration of flowering phase in all the species showed a corresponding decrease along the gradient of increasing temperature, which was more driven by preponement of the flower senescence than the start of flowering. The patterns of phenological shifts were highly species-specific, and the magnitude of these shifts significantly varied in all the four pairs of congeneric species despite their phylogenetic similarity. Our study provides experimental support to the previous long-term observation and herbarium-based studies showing that the patterns of phenological shifts in response to global climate warming are likely to vary between species, even those belonging to same evolutionary stock. Our findings highlight that a one-size-fits-all strategy to manage the likely impacts of climate warming-induced phenological shifts will seldom succeed, and should instead be designed for the specific phenological responses of species and regions.

Spatiotemporal Variation of Osmanthus fragrans Phenology in China in Response to Climate Change From 1973 to 1996

Climate change greatly affects spring and autumn plant phenology around the world consequently, and significantly impacts ecosystem function and the social economy. However, autumn plant phenology, especially autumn flowering phenology, has not been studied so far. In this study, we examined the spatiotemporal pattern of Osmanthus fragrans phenology, including both leaf phenology (the date of bud-bust, BBD; first leaf unfolding, FLD; and 50% of leaf unfolding, 50 LD) and flowering phenology (the date of first flowering, FFD; peak of flowering, PFD; and end of flowering, EFD). Stepwise multiple linear regressions were employed to analyze the relationships between phenophases and climatic factors in the long term phenological data collected by the Chinese Phenological Observation Network from 1973 to 1996. The results showed that spring leaf phenophases and autumn flowering phenophases were strongly affected by latitude. BBD, FLD, and 50LD of O. fragrans were delayed by 3.98, 3.93, and 4.40 days as per degree of latitude increased, while FFD, PFD and EFD in O. fragrans advanced 3.11, 3.26, and 2.99 days, respectively. During the entire study period, BBD was significantly delayed across the region, whereas no significant trends were observed either in FLD or 50LD. Notably, all flowering phenophases of O. fragrans were delayed. Both leaf and flowering phenophases negatively correlated with growing degree-days (GDD) and cold degree-days (CDD), respectively. BBD and FLD were negatively correlated with total annual precipitation. In addition to the effects of climate on autumn flowering phenology, we found that earlier spring leaf phenophases led to delayed autumn flowering phenophases. Our results suggest that future climate change and global warming might delay the phenological sequence of O. fragrans. Our findings also advanced the flowering mechanism study of autumn flowering plants, and facilitated the accurate prediction of future phenology and climate change.

Does Climate Warming Favour Early Season Species?

Plant species that start early in spring are generally more responsive to rising temperatures, raising concerns that climate warming may favour early season species and result in altered interspecific interactions and community structure and composition. This hypothesis is based on changes in spring phenology and therefore active growing season length, which would not be indicative of possible changes in growth as would changes in cumulative forcing temperatures (growing degree days/hours) in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study we analysed the effects of a moderate climate warming (2°C warmer than the 1981-2010 baseline) on the leaf-out of hypothetical species without chilling restriction and actual plant species with different chilling and forcing requirements in different parts of the globe. In both cases, early season species had larger phenological shifts due to low leaf-out temperatures, but accumulated fewer forcing gains (changes in cumulative forcing temperatures by warming) from those shifts because of their early spring phenology. Leaf-out time was closely associated with leaf-out temperatures and therefore plant phenological responses to climate warming. All plant species would be equally affected by climate warming in terms of total forcing gains added from higher temperatures when forcing gains occurring between early and late season species are included. Our findings will improve the understanding of possible mechanisms and consequences of differential responses in plant phenology to climate warming.

Late to bed, late to rise-Warmer autumn temperatures delay spring phenology by delaying dormancy

Spring phenology of temperate forest trees has advanced substantially over the last decades due to climate warming, but this advancement is slowing down despite continuous temperature rise. The decline in spring advancement is often attributed to winter warming, which could reduce chilling and thus delay dormancy release. However, mechanistic evidence of a phenological response to warmer winter temperatures is missing. We aimed to understand the contrasting effects of warming on plants leaf phenology and to disentangle temperature effects during different seasons. With a series of monthly experimental warming by ca. 2.4°C from late summer until spring, we quantified phenological responses of forest tree to warming for each month separately, using seedlings of four common European tree species. To reveal the underlying mechanism, we tracked the development of dormancy depth under ambient conditions as well as directly after each experimental warming. In addition, we quantified the temperature response of leaf senescence. As expected, warmer spring temperatures led to earlier leaf-out. The advancing effect of warming started already in January and increased towards the time of flushing, reaching 2.5 days/°C. Most interestingly, however, warming in October had the opposite effect and delayed spring phenology by 2.4 days/°C on average; despite six months between the warming and the flushing. The switch between the delaying and advancing effect occurred already in December. We conclude that not warmer winters but rather the shortening of winter, i.e., warming in autumn, is a major reason for the decline in spring phenology.

Macrophenology: insights into the broad-scale patterns, drivers, and consequences of phenology

Plant phenology research has surged in recent decades, in part due to interest in phenological sensitivity to climate change and the vital role phenology plays in ecology. Many local-scale studies have generated important findings regarding the physiology, responses, and risks associated with shifts in plant phenology. By comparison, our understanding of regional- and global-scale phenology has been largely limited to remote sensing of green-up without the ability to differentiate among plant species. However, a new generation of analytical tools and data sources-including enhanced remote sensing products, digitized herbarium specimen data, and public participation in science-now permits investigating patterns and drivers of phenology across extensive taxonomic, temporal, and spatial scales, in an emerging field that we call macrophenology. Recent studies have highlighted how phenology affects dynamics at broad scales, including species interactions and ranges, carbon fluxes, and climate. At the cusp of this developing field of study, we review the theoretical and practical advances in four primary areas of plant macrophenology: (1) global patterns and shifts in plant phenology, (2) within-species changes in phenology as they mediate species' range limits and invasions at the regional scale, (3) broad-scale variation in phenology among species leading to ecological mismatches, and (4) interactions between phenology and global ecosystem processes. To stimulate future research, we describe opportunities for macrophenology to address grand challenges in each of these research areas, as well as recently available data sources that enhance and enable macrophenology research.

Winding up the bloom clock-do sugar levels at senescence determine how trees respond to winter temperature?

Variable winter temperatures cause a year-to-year discrepancy in the phenology of deciduous trees. This implies that an intrinsic 'winter clock' synchronizes bloom with the progression of winter to spring. The carbohydrate-temperature (C-T) model established a mechanistic association between carbohydrate metabolism in dormant trees and hourly winter temperatures. Using historical winter temperature and bloom times of Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D. A. Webb (almond), Malus domestica L. (apple), Pistachia vera L. (pistachio) and Juglans regia L. (walnut) in California and Washington states, we parametrized species-specific metabolic parameters to the C-T model. There was a sound fit between actual and projected bloom dates with a deviation (root mean square error) of 4-7 days in all species. The parameterized model enabled us to study how the observed variability in soluble carbohydrate concentrations at senescence (SC0) could affect bloom time. The C-T model projected that low SC0 could advance, while high SC0 possibly delays, the bloom of the early blooming almond trees. In contrast, high SC0 would advance the bloom of apple, pistachio and walnut trees. These novel projections suggest that after experimental validation, SC0 could guide post-harvest farming applications that affect fall carbohydrate accumulation to mediate the effects of climate shifts.

Quantification of Urban Heat Island-Induced Contribution to Advance in Spring Phenology: A Case Study in Hangzhou, China

Plant phenology is one of the key regulators of ecosystem processes, which are sensitive to environmental change. The acceleration of urbanization in recent years has produced substantial impacts on vegetation phenology over urban areas, such as the local warming induced by the urban heat island effect. However, quantitative contributions of the difference of land surface temperature (LST) between urban and rural (ΔLST) and other factors to the difference of spring phenology (i.e., the start of growing season, SOS) between urban and rural (ΔSOS) were rarely reported. Therefore, the objective of this study is to explore impacts of urbanization on SOS and distinguish corresponding contributions. Using Hangzhou, a typical subtropical metropolis, as the study area, vegetation index-based phenology data (MCD12Q2 and MYD13Q1 EVI) and land surface temperature data (MYD11A2 LST) from 2006–2018 were adopted to analyze the urban–rural gradient in phenology characteristics through buffers. Furthermore, we exploratively quantified the contributions of the ΔLST to the ΔSOS based on a temperature contribution separation model. We found that there was a negative coupling between SOS and LST in over 90% of the vegetated areas in Hangzhou. At the sample-point scale, SOS was weakly, but significantly, negatively correlated with LST at the daytime (R2 = 0.2 and p < 0.01 in rural; R2 = 0.14 and p < 0.05 in urban) rather than that at nighttime. Besides, the ΔSOS dominated by the ΔLST contributed more than 70% of the total ΔSOS. We hope this study could help to deepen the understanding of responses of urban ecosystem to intensive human activities.

Coping with eccentricities of natural history collection data. A commentary on: 'Comparing fruiting phenology across two historical datasets: Thoreau's observations and herbarium specimens'

This article comments on: Tara K. Miller1, Amanda S. Gallinat, Linnea C. Smith and Richard B. Primack, Comparing fruiting phenology across two historical datasets: Thoreau’s observations and herbarium specimens, Annals of Botany, Volume 128, Issue 2, 23 July 2021, Pages 159–170, 10.1093/aob/mcab019

Comparing fruiting phenology across two historical datasets: Thoreau's observations and herbarium specimens

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Fruiting remains under-represented in long-term phenology records, relative to leaf and flower phenology. Herbarium specimens and historical field notes can fill this gap, but selecting and synthesizing these records for modern-day comparison requires an understanding of whether different historical data sources contain similar information, and whether similar, but not equivalent, fruiting metrics are comparable with one another.

METHODS

For 67 fleshy-fruited plant species, we compared observations of fruiting phenology made by Henry David Thoreau in Concord, Massachusetts (1850s), with phenology data gathered from herbarium specimens collected across New England (mid-1800s to 2000s). To identify whether fruiting times and the order of fruiting among species are similar between datasets, we compared dates of first, peak and last observed fruiting (recorded by Thoreau), and earliest, mean and latest specimen (collected from herbarium records), as well as fruiting durations.

KEY RESULTS

On average, earliest herbarium specimen dates were earlier than first fruiting dates observed by Thoreau; mean specimen dates were similar to Thoreau's peak fruiting dates; latest specimen dates were later than Thoreau's last fruiting dates; and durations of fruiting captured by herbarium specimens were longer than durations of fruiting observed by Thoreau. All metrics of fruiting phenology except duration were significantly, positively correlated within (r: 0.69-0.88) and between (r: 0.59-0.85) datasets.

CONCLUSIONS

Strong correlations in fruiting phenology between Thoreau's observations and data from herbaria suggest that field and herbarium methods capture similar broad-scale phenological information, including relative fruiting times among plant species in New England. Differences in the timing of first, last and duration of fruiting suggest that historical datasets collected with different methods, scales and metrics may not be comparable when exact timing is important. Researchers should strongly consider matching methodology when selecting historical records of fruiting phenology for present-day comparisons.

Phenological sensitivity to temperature mediates herbivory

Species interactions drive ecosystem processes and are a major focus of global change research. Among the most consequential interactions expected to shift with climate change are those between insect herbivores and plants, both of which are highly sensitive to temperature. Insect herbivores and their host plants display varying levels of synchrony that could be disrupted or enhanced by climate change, yet empirical data on changes in synchrony are lacking. Using evidence of herbivory on herbarium specimens collected from the northeastern United States and France from 1900 to 2015, we provide evidence that plant species with temperature-sensitive phenologies experience higher levels of insect damage in warmer years, while less temperature-sensitive, co-occurring species do not. While herbivory might be mediated by interactions between warming and phenology through multiple pathways, we suggest that warming might lengthen growing seasons for phenologically sensitive plant species, exposing their leaves to herbivores for longer periods of time in warm years. We propose that elevated herbivory in warm years may represent a previously underappreciated cost to phenological tracking of climate change over longer timescales.

Climate data and flowering times for 450 species from 1844 deepen the record of phenological change in southern Germany

PREMISE

State-sponsored weather stations became ubiquitous by the 1880s, yet many old climate data and phenological observations still need to be digitized and made accessible.

METHODS

We here make available flowering times for 450 species of herbs and shrubs gathered in 1844 by Carl Friedrich Philipp von Martius (1794-1868), director of the Munich Botanical Garden. The data formed part of the world's third-oldest phenological monitoring network as we explain in a brief overview of the history of such networks. Using data from one of the world's oldest continuously functioning weather stations, Hohenpeißenberg, we relate temperature to flowering in three species with short flowering times and herbarium collections made since 1844 within the city's perimeter, namely, Anemone patens, A. pulsatilla, and Arum maculatum.

RESULTS

Mean advances in flowering dates were 1.3-2.1 days/decade or 3.2-4.2 days/1°C warming. These advances are in keeping with similar advances in other European herbs during more recent periods.

CONCLUSIONS

Future studies might use the 1844 flowering data made available here as a source of information on the availability of particular flowers for specialized pollinators including insects looking for oviposition sites, such as the Psychoda flies that become trapped in Arum inflorescences. Another use of Martius's 1844 data would be their incorporation into larger-scale analyses of flowering in southern-central Europe.

Temperate deciduous shrub phenology: the overlooked forest layer

Temperate deciduous shrub phenology plays a pivotal role in forest ecology by regulating the timing of suitable habitat and food of a range of organisms as well as influencing the timing and duration of the carbon uptake period especially in early spring and late autumn when trees are leafless. However, given the overwhelming influence of canopy trees on forest ecosystem functioning, shrubs are often ignored in ecosystem modeling. Isolating the shrub contribution to C flux or satellite-derived forest phenology is challenging. In addition, since shrubs are more likely to be invasive than trees, future changes to shrub species composition are likely, with consequent implications for both over- and understory species composition and ecosystem functioning. Surprisingly, given their multifaceted role, our review revealed that studies on temperate deciduous shrub phenology are limited with the majority focusing on managing invasive shrubs in USA forests. In addition, results of some studies using a large number of species from a range of geographical locations suggested that, in general, invasive shrubs leafed out earlier and retained leaves longer than native species. However, this may not be directly applicable to local conditions with a smaller range of locally adapted species. Therefore, in order to fully understand the role of shrub phenology in temperate deciduous forests, in terms of invasive species, response to climate change and subsequent influence on C balance it will be necessary to establish phenological monitoring sites in which both tree and shrub phenology are recorded concurrently across a range of geographical locations.

Growing-season frost is a better predictor of tree growth than mean annual temperature in boreal mixedwood forest plantations

Increase in frost damage to trees due to earlier spring dehardening could outweigh the expected increase in forest productivity caused by climate warming. We quantified the impact of growing-season frosts on the performance of three spruce species (white, black, and Norway spruce) and various seed sources with different frost tolerance in two plantations, established on both sides of the eastern Canadian boreal-temperate forest ecotone. The objectives of this study were to determine (a) if spruce species and seed sources planted in sites far from their natural provenance would be less adapted to local site conditions, leading to increased frost damage and reduced height growth; (b) at which height above the ground growing-season frosts ceased to damage apical meristems; and (c) if height growth was best predicted by extreme climatic events (growing-season frosts) or by mean annual or summer temperature. At each site and for all spruce species and seed sources, we cross-sectioned spruce trees at different heights above the ground. Tree rings were cross-dated and screened for frost rings, which were then given a severity score based on cellular damage. Frost severity reduced height growth of all spruce species and provenances at both sites. Height growth of the non-native Norway spruce was the most reduced by frost severity and was the smallest species at both sites. Frost caused the highest growth reduction in white spruce at the boreal mixedwood site and had the least effect on black spruce at both sites. For all spruce species, height growth was affected up to 2 m above the ground. Model selection based on corrected Akaike's information criteria (AICc) identified that minimum temperature in May was by far the best climate variable predicting tree growth (AICc weight = 1), highlighting the importance of considering extreme climatic events, which are likely to increase in the future.

Increasing Summer Rainfall and Asymmetrical Diurnal and Seasonal Warming Enhanced Vegetation Greenness in Temperate Deciduous Forests and Grasslands of Northern China

Temperate forests and grasslands carry key ecosystem functions and provide essential services. Remote-sensing derived greenness has been widely used to assess the response of ecosystem function to climate and land-cover changes. Although reforestation and grassland restoration have been proposed to enhance the regional greenness in Northern China, the independent contribution of climate without the interference of land-cover change at meso and large scales has rarely been explored. To separate the impacts of climate change on vegetation greenness from those of land-cover/use change, we identified large patches of forests and grasslands in Northern China without land-cover/use changes in 2001–2015 and derived their greenness using MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI). We found that most deciduous-broadleaved forest patches showed greening, and the significant slope of the annual mean and maximum EVI are 3.97 ± 0.062 × 10−3 and 4.8 ± 0.116 × 10−3 yr−1, respectively. On the contrary, grassland patches showed great spatial heterogeneity and only those in the east showed greening. The partial correlation analysis between EVI and climate showed that the greening of grassland patches is primarily supported by the increased growing-season precipitation with mean significant coefficient of 0.72 ± 0.01. While wet-year (0.57 ± 0.01) and nongrowing-season precipitation (0.68 ± 0.01) significantly benefit greening of deciduous-broadleaved forests, the altered temperature seasonality modulates their greening spatial-heterogeneously. The increased growing-season minimum temperature might lengthen the growing season and contribute to the greening for the temperature-limited north as shown by positive partial correlation coefficient of 0.66 ± 0.01, but might elevate respiration and reduce greening of the forests in the south as shown by negative coefficient of −0.70 ± 0.01. Daytime warming in growing season is found to favor the drought-tolerant oak dominated forest in the south due to enhanced photosynthesis, but may not favor the forests dominated by less-drought-tolerant birch in the north due to potential water stress. Therefore, grassland greening was essentially promoted by the growing-season precipitation, however, in addition to being driven by precipitation, greening of deciduous forests was regulated spatial-heterogeneously by asymmetrical diurnal and seasonal warming which could be attributed to species composition.

Probability of Spring Frosts, Not Growing Degree-Days, Drives Onset of Spruce Bud Burst in Plantations at the Boreal-Temperate Forest Ecotone

Climate warming-driven early leaf-out is expected to increase forest productivity but concurrently increases leaf exposure to spring frosts, which could reduce forests' net productivity. We hypothesized that due to their damaging effect on buds, spring frosts exert a stronger control on bud phenology than do growing degree-days. We monitored bud flush phenology of three white spruce seed sources (one local seed source from the boreal mixedwood forest and two seed sources from the temperate forest), one black spruce seed source originating from the boreal mixedwood forest and four nonlocal Norway spruce seed sources in 2016 and 2017 in two plantations located on both sides of the temperate-boreal mixedwood forest ecotone in eastern Canada (Quebec). We aimed to determine inter- and intraspecies variations in bud break timing and sensitivity to air temperature and photoperiod. We expected that bud break timing for boreal species and seed sources would be better synchronized with the decrease in frost probability than for nonlocal species and seed sources. We used mixed binomial regressions and AICc model selection to determine the best environmental variables predicting each transition from one stage of bud phenology to the next. At both plantation sites, white spruce bud flush began and ended earlier compared to black and Norway spruce. Buds of all spruce species were sensitive to frost probability for early phenological stages, whereas growing degree-days controlled the remaining stages. Photoperiod sensitivity was higher for white spruce compared to black and Norway spruce and reached its maximum in the temperate forest. At intraspecies level, the two southern white spruce seed sources opened their buds earlier than the local source and were more sensitive to photoperiod, which increased their exposure to spring frosts. Onset of spruce bud flush is driven by spring frosts and photoperiod, but once started, bud phenology responds to temperature. The high photoperiod sensitivity in white spruces could counterbalance climate warming and limit future premature leaf-out, whereas the low photoperiod sensitivity in black spruce should not restrain leaf-out advancement with climate warming. Our results call for adapting the temperature-driven hypotheses of ecophysiological models predicting leaf-out to include spring frost probability.

Assisted migration across fixed seed zones detects adaptation lags in two major North American tree species

Boreal forests are experiencing dramatic climate change, having warmed 1.0°-1.9°C over the last century. Yet forest regeneration practices are often still dictated by a fixed seed zone framework, in which seeds are both harvested from and planted into predefined areas. Our goal was to determine whether seedlings sourced from southern seed zones in Minnesota USA are already better adapted to northerly seed zones because of climate change. Bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) and northern red oak (Quercus rubra) seedlings from two seed zones (i.e., tree ecotypes) were planted into 16 sites in two northern seed zones and measured for 3 yr. Our hypotheses were threefold: (1) tree species with more southern geographic distributions would thrive in northern forests where climate has already warmed substantially, (2) southern ecotypes of these species would have higher survival and growth than the northern ecotype in northern environments, and (3) natural selection would favor seedlings that expressed phenotypic and phenological traits characteristic of trees sourced from the more southern seed zone. For both species, survival was high (>93%), and southern ecotypes expressed traits consistent with our climate adaptation hypotheses. Ecotypic differences were especially evident for red oak; the southern ecotype had had higher survival, lower specific leaf area (SLA), faster height and diameter growth, and extended leaf phenology relative to the northern ecotype. Bur oak results were weaker, but the southern ecotype also had earlier budburst and lower SLA than the northern ecotype. Models based on the fixed seed zones failed to explain seedling performance as well as those with continuous predictors (e.g., climate and geographical position), suggesting that plant adaptations within current seed zone delineations do align with changing climate conditions. Adding support for this conclusion, natural selection favored traits expressed by the more southern tree ecotypes. Collectively, these results suggest that state seed sourcing guidelines should be reexamined to permit plantings across seed zones, a form of assisted migration. More extensive experiments (i.e., provenance trails) are necessary to make species-specific seed transfer guidelines that account for climate trends while also considering the precise geographic origin of seed sources.

Interactive climate factors restrict future increases in spring productivity of temperate and boreal trees

Climate warming is currently advancing spring leaf-out of temperate and boreal trees, enhancing net primary productivity (NPP) of forests. However, it remains unclear whether this trend will continue, preventing for accurate projections of ecosystem functioning and climate feedbacks. Several ecophysiological mechanisms have been proposed to regulate the timing of leaf emergence in response to changing environmental cues, but the relative importance of those mechanisms remains unclear. Here, we use 727,401 direct phenological observations of common European forest trees to examine the dominant controls on leaf-out. Using the emerging mechanisms, we forecast future trajectories of spring arrival and evaluate the consequences for forest carbon dynamics. By representing hypothesized relationships with autumn temperature, winter chilling, and the timing of spring onset, we accurately predicted reductions in the advance of leaf-out. There was a strong consensus between our empirical model and existing process-based models, revealing that the advance in leaf-out will not exceed 2 weeks over the rest of the century. We further estimate that, under a 'business-as-usual' climate scenario, earlier spring arrival will enhance NPP of temperate and boreal forests by ~0.2 Gt per year at the end of the century. In contrast, previous estimates based on a simple degree-day model range around 0.8 Gt. As such, the expected NPP is drastically reduced in our updated model relative to previous estimates-by a total of ~25 Gt over the rest of the century. These findings reveal important environmental constraints on the productivity of broad-leaved deciduous trees and highlight that shifting spring phenology is unlikely to slow the rate of warming by offsetting anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Herbarium records indicate variation in bloom-time sensitivity to temperature across a geographically diverse region

Anthropogenic warming's effects on phenology across environmental and temporal gradients are well recognized. Long-term phenological monitoring data are often limited in duration and geographic scope, but recent efforts to digitize herbaria collections make it possible to reliably reconstruct historic flowering phenology across broad geographic scales and multiple species, lending to an increased understanding of community response to climate change. In this study, we examined collection dates (1901 to 2015) of 8540 flowering specimens from 39 native species in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America. We hypothesized that flowering phenology would be sensitive to temperature but that sensitivity would vary depending on blooming season and geographic range position. As expected, we found that early-season bloomers are more sensitive to temperature than later-season bloomers. Sensitivity to temperature was significantly greater at low elevations and in the maritime (western) portion of the PNW than at higher elevations and in the eastern interior, respectively. The elevational and longitudinal effects on flowering sensitivity reflect spring "arriving" earlier at low elevations and in the maritime portion of the PNW. These results demonstrate that phenological responses to warming vary substantially across climatically diverse regions, warranting careful and nuanced consideration of climate warming's effects on plant phenology.

How well do the spring indices predict phenological activity across plant species?

The spring indices, models that represent the onset of spring season biological activity, were developed using a long-term observational record from the mid-to-late twentieth century of three species of lilacs and honeysuckles contributed by volunteer observers across the nation. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) produces and freely delivers maps of spring index onset dates at fine spatial scale for the USA. These maps are used widely in natural resource planning and management applications. The extent to which the models represent activity in a broad suite of plant species is not well documented. In this study, we used a rich record of observational plant phenology data (37,819 onset records) collected in recent years (1981-2017) to evaluate how well gridded maps of the spring index models predict leaf and flowering onset dates in (a) 19 species of ecologically important, broadly distributed deciduous trees and shrubs, and (b) the lilac and honeysuckle species used to construct the models. The extent to which the spring indices predicted vegetative and reproductive phenology varied by species and with latitude, with stronger relationships revealed for shrubs than trees and with the Bloom Index compared to the Leaf Index, and reduced concordance between the indices at higher latitudes. These results allow us to use the indices as indicators of when to expect activity across widely distributed species and can serve as a yardstick to assess how future changes in the timing of spring will impact a broad array of trees and shrubs across the USA.

Low-cost observations and experiments return a high value in plant phenology research

Plant ecologists in the Anthropocene are tasked with documenting, interpreting, and predicting how plants respond to environmental change. Phenology, the timing of seasonal biological events including leaf-out, flowering, fruiting, and leaf senescence, is among the most visible and oft-recorded facets of plant ecology. Climate-driven shifts in plant phenology can alter reproductive success, interspecific competition, and trophic interactions. Low-cost phenology research, including observational records and experimental manipulations, is fundamental to our understanding of both the mechanisms and effects of phenological change in plant populations, species, and communities. Traditions of local-scale botanical phenology observations and data leveraged from written records and natural history collections provide the historical context for recent observations of changing phenologies. New technology facilitates expanding the spatial, taxonomic, and human interest in this research by combining contemporary field observations by researchers and open access community science (e.g., USA National Phenology Network) and available climate data. Established experimental techniques, such as twig cutting and common garden experiments, are low-cost methods for studying the mechanisms and drivers of plant phenology, enabling researchers to observe phenological responses under novel environmental conditions. We discuss the strengths, limitations, potential hidden costs (i.e., volunteer and student labor), and promise of each of these methods for addressing emerging questions in plant phenology research. Applied thoughtfully, economically, and creatively, many low-cost approaches offer novel opportunities to fill gaps in our geographic, taxonomic, and mechanistic understanding of plant phenology worldwide.

Phenology-Based Mapping of an Alien Invasive Species Using Time Series of Multispectral Satellite Data: A Case-Study with Glossy Buckthorn in Québec, Canada

Glossy buckthorn (Frangula alnus Mill.) is an alien species in Canada that is invading many forested areas. Glossy buckthorn has impacts on the biodiversity and productivity of invaded forests. Currently, we do not know much about the species’ ecology and no thorough study of its distribution in temperate forests has been performed yet. As is often the case with invasive plant species, the phenology of glossy buckthorn differs from that of other indigenous plant species found in invaded communities. In the forests of eastern Canada, the main phenological difference is a delay in the shedding of glossy buckthorn leaves, which occurs later in the fall than for other indigenous tree species found in that region. Therefore, our objective was to use that phenological characteristic to map the spatial distribution of glossy buckthorn over a portion of southern Québec, Canada, using remote sensing-based approaches. We achieved this by applying a linear temporal unmixing model to a time series of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) images to create a map of the probability of the occurrence of glossy buckthorn for the study area. The map resulting from the temporal unmixing model shows an agreement of 69% with field estimates of glossy buckthorn occurrence measured in 121 plots distributed over the study area. Glossy buckthorn mapping accuracy was limited by evergreen species and by the spectral and spatial resolution of the Landsat 8 OLI.

A comparison of ground-based methods for obtaining large-scale, high-resolution data on the spring leaf phenology of temperate tree species

Phenological variation in spring leafing between and within species can determine plant responses to warmer winter and spring temperatures in the short term. Methods are needed for monitoring canopy development that can be replicated on a large-scale, while retaining fine-scale resolution at the level of individual trees. Citizen science has the potential to provide this, but a range of approaches exist in terms of the phenophase recorded (e.g. budburst or leaf expansion), how the phenophase is characterised (first events or intensity monitoring) and the portion of tree crown assessed and observation frequency. A comparison of spring budburst and leaf expansion of four tree species (Fraxinus excelsior, Fagus sylvatica, Quercus robur and Acer pseudoplatanus) was monitored in one woodland using (1) counts of expanded leaves on three crown sections, (2) percentage estimates of expanded leaves across the whole crown and (3) a greenness index from photography. Logistic growth models were applied to make comparisons. First-event dates were found to be misleading due to high variation in leaf development rates within and between species. Percentage estimates and counts produced similar estimates of leaf expansion timing and rate. The greenness index produced similar estimates of timing, but not rate, and was compromised by practicalities of photographing individual crowns in closed-canopy woodland. Citizen scientists could collect data across the period of spring leafing, with visual counts and/or estimates made every 3-4 days, subject to tests of reliability in pilot citizen science studies.

Chilling and Forcing From Cut Twigs-How to Simplify Phenological Experiments for Citizen Science

Low-cost phenological experiments with cut twigs are increasingly used to study bud development in response to spring warming and photoperiod. However, a broader variety of species needs to be tackled and in particular the influence of insufficient winter chilling deserves more attention. Therefore, we investigated if and how chilling requirements can be efficiently investigated by cut twigs and how this low-tech approach could be successfully implemented as a citizen science or school project. We conducted an experiment on bud burst and leaf development of Corylus avellana L. twigs, with natural chilling outdoors on a shrub (S) and another chilling treatment as cut twigs in containers (C), and subsequent forcing indoors. Subsampling of the number of cutting dates and number of twigs was used to infer minimum required sample sizes. Apart from insufficiently chilled twigs, ~80% of the twigs (both S and C) reached leaf out. For multiple definitions of chilling and forcing, a negative exponential relationship was revealed between chilling and amount of forcing needed to reach certain developmental stages. At least 5 out of 15 cutting dates or alternatively half of the 10 twig repetitions, but especially those mirroring low chilling conditions, were needed to describe the chilling-forcing relationship with some degree of robustness. In addition, for cutting dates with long chilling, i.e., from January onwards, freshly cut twigs (S) required significantly more forcing to reach bud burst than twigs from containers (C), although the effect was small. In general, chilling conditions of mature shrubs were well captured by cut twigs, therefore opening the possibility of chilling through refrigeration. We conclude that experimental protocols as outlined here are feasible for citizen scientists, school projects, and science education, and would have the potential to advance the research field if carried out on a large scale. We provide an easy-to-use Shiny simulation app to enable citizen scientists to build up a bud development model based on their own experimental data and then simulate future phenological development with winter and/or spring warming. This may encourage them to further study other aspects of climate change and the impacts of climate change.

Divergent Responses of Community Reproductive and Vegetative Phenology to Warming and Cooling: Asymmetry Versus Symmetry

Few studies have focused on the response of plant community phenology to temperature change using manipulative experiments. A lack of understanding of whether responses of community reproductive and vegetative phenological sequences to warming and cooling are asymmetrical or symmetrical limits our capacity to predict responses under warming and cooling. A reciprocal transplant experiment was conducted for 3 years to evaluate response patterns of the temperature sensitivities of community phenological sequences to warming (transferred downward) and cooling (transferred upward) along four elevations on the Tibetan Plateau. We found that the temperature sensitivities of flowering stages had asymmetric responses to warming and cooling, whereas symmetric responses to warming and cooling were observed for the vegetative phenological sequences. Our findings showed that coverage changes of flowering functional groups (FFGs; i.e., early-spring FFG, mid-summer FFG, and late-autumn FFG) and their compensation effects combined with required accumulated soil temperatureto codetermined the asymmetric and symmetric responses of community phenological sequences to warming and cooling. These results suggest that coverage change in FFGs on warming and cooling processes can be a primary driver of community phenological variation and may lead to inaccurate phenlogical estimation at large scale, such as based on remote sensing.

Differences in flowering time maintain species boundaries in a continental radiation of Viburnum

PREMISE

We take an integrative approach in assessing how introgression and Pleistocene climate fluctuations have shaped the diversification of the core Lentago clade of Viburnum, a group of five interfertile species with broad areas of sympatry. We specifically tested whether flowering time plays a role in maintaining species isolation.

METHODS

RAD-seq data for 103 individuals were used to infer the species relationships and the genetic structure within each species. Flowering times were compared among species on the basis of historical flowering dates documented by herbarium specimens.

RESULTS

Within each species, we found a strong relationship between flowering date and latitude, such that southern populations flower earlier than northern ones. In areas of sympatry, the species flower in sequence rather than simultaneously, with flowering dates offset by ≥9 d for all species pairs. In two cases it appears that the offset in flowering times is an incidental consequence of adaptation to differing climates, but in the recently diverged sister species V. prunifolium and V. rufidulum, we find evidence that reinforcement led to reproductive character displacement. Long-term trends suggest that the two northern-most species are flowering earlier in response to recent climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

We argue that speciation in the Lentago clade has primarily occurred through ecological divergence of allopatric populations, but differences in flowering time were essential to maintain separation of incipient species when they came into secondary contact. This combination of factors may underlie diversification in many other plant clades.

Effect of intra-urban temperature variation on tree flowering phenology, airborne pollen, and measurement error in epidemiological studies of allergenic pollen

Temperature gradients in cities can cause inter-neighborhood differences in the timing of pollen release. However, most epidemiological studies examining allergenic pollen utilize daily measurements from a single pollen monitoring station with the implicit assumption that the measured time series of airborne pollen concentrations applies across the study areas, and that the temporal mismatch between concentrations at the counting station and elsewhere in the study area is negligible. This assumption is tested by quantifying temperature using satellite imagery, observing flowering times of oak (Quercus) and mulberry (Morus) trees at multiple sites, and collecting airborne pollen. Epidemiological studies of allergenic pollen are reviewed and temperatures within their study areas are quantified. In this one-year study, peak oak flowering time was well explained by average February nighttime temperature (R2 = 0.94), which varied by 6 °C across Detroit. This relationship was used to predict flowering phenology across the study region. Peak flowering ranged from April 20-May 13 and predicted a substantial portion of relative airborne oak pollen concentrations in Detroit (R2 = 0.46) and at the regional pollen monitoring station (R2 = 0.61). The regional pollen monitoring station was located in a cooler outlying area where peak flowering occurred around May 12 and peak pollen concentrations were measured on May 15. This provides evidence that the timing of pollen release varies substantially within a metropolitan area and challenges the assumption that pollen measurements at a single location are representative of an entire city. Across the epidemiological studies, 50% of study areas were not within 1 °C (equal to a lag or lead of 4 days in flowering time) of temperatures at the pollen measurement location. Epidemiological studies using a single pollen station as a proxy for pollen concentrations are prone to significant measurement error if the study area is climatically variable.

Validation and Application of European Beech Phenological Metrics Derived from MODIS Data along an Altitudinal Gradient

Monitoring plant phenology is one of the means of detecting the response of vegetation to changing environmental conditions. One approach for the study of vegetation phenology from local to global scales is to apply satellite-based indices. We investigated the potential of phenological metrics from moderate resolution remotely sensed data to monitor the altitudinal variations in phenological phases of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). Phenological metrics were derived from the NDVI annual trajectories fitted with double sigmoid logistic function. Validation of the satellite-derived phenological metrics was necessary, thus the multiple-year ground observations of phenological phases from twelve beech stands along the altitudinal gradient were employed. In five stands, the validation process was supported with annual (in 2011) phenological observations of the undergrowth and understory vegetation, measurements of the leaf area index (LAI), and with laboratory spectral analyses of forest components reflecting the red and near-infrared radiation. Non-significant differences between the satellite-derived phenological metrics and the in situ observed phenological phases of the beginning of leaf onset (LO_10); end of leaf onset (LO_100); and 80% leaf coloring (LC_80) were detected. Next, the altitude dependent variations of the phenological metrics were investigated in all beech-dominated pixels over the area between latitudes 47°44′ N and 49°37′ N, and longitudes 16°50′ E and 22°34′ E (Slovakia, Central Europe). In all cases, this large-scale regression revealed non-linear relationships. Since spring phenological metrics showed strong dependence on altitude, only a weak relationship was detected between autumn phenological metric and altitude. The effect of altitude was evaluated through differences in local climatic conditions, especially temperature and precipitation. We used normal values from the last 30 years to evaluate the altitude-conditioned differences in the growing season length in 12 study stands. The approach presented in this paper contributes to a more explicit understanding of satellite data-based beech phenology along the altitudinal gradient, and will be useful for determining the optimal distribution range of European beech under changing climate conditions.

Leaf phenology of thirteen African origins of baobab (Adansonia digitata (L.)) as influenced by daylength and water availability

Water availability is often described as one of the main drivers of phenology of tropical dry forests but experimental studies to identify the cues triggering phenological changes are few. In a greenhouse trial, we exposed seedlings of thirteen origins, seven from West and six from East Africa, respectively, of Adansonia digitata L.(baobab) to a well-watered control treatment and a water withholding treatment in combination with exposure to three different daylengths (11.5, 12.0, and 12.5 hr). Responses were measured in terms of meristematic activity, number of leaves, and height growth followed over 6.5 months. Multi-level mixed-effects statistical models were used to analyze how environmental and inter-population variables affected phenological behavior. Flushing was influenced by the daylength with the lowest degree of meristematic activity observed in the short daylength treatment. Daylength also influenced the number of leaves through an interaction with the water regime. The water regime influenced all variables through interactions with the origins. Seedlings subjected to water stress had higher meristematic activity, but initially lower numbers of leaves than continuously watered plants. Height growth in continuously watered plants was fastest or at par with water-stressed plants, depending on the origin. Origins from West Africa tended to have higher meristematic activity and their phenology was found to be less influenced by water withholding than East African origins. There were no signs of significant differences between origins in their response to photoperiod. In conclusion, baobab seedlings show opportunistic behavior, setting leaves when water is available, but larger activity is found when days are long. We discuss the results in terms of triggering factors for baobab phenology and adaptation to specific environmental conditions at the site of origins.

Patterns and predictors of fleshy fruit phenology at five international botanical gardens

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

To improve our understanding of the patterns and drivers of fleshy fruit phenology, we examined the sequence, patterns across years and locations, and drivers of fruiting times at five botanical gardens on three continents.

METHODS

We monitored four stages of fruit phenology for 406 temperate, fleshy-fruited, woody plant species in 2014 and 2015.

KEY RESULTS

Across all gardens, ripe fruits were present from May to March of the following year, with peak fruiting durations ranging from under 1 week to over 150 days. Species-level first fruiting and onset of peak fruiting dates were strongly associated with one another within sites and were more consistent between years and sites than the end of peak fruiting and last fruiting date. The order of fruiting among species between years and gardens was moderately consistent, and both peak fruiting times and fruiting durations were found to be phylogenetically conserved.

CONCLUSIONS

The consistent order of fruiting among species between years and locations indicates species-specific phenological responses to environmental conditions. Wide variation in fruiting times across species and in the duration of peak fruiting reinforces the importance of understanding how plant phenology impacts dispersers and monitoring the health and consistency of these interactions.

Short-Term Vegetation Responses to Invasive Shrub Control Techniques for Amur Honeysuckle (Lonicera maackii [Rupr.] Herder)

Invasive shrubs in forest understories threaten biodiversity and forest regeneration in the eastern United States. Controlling these extensive monotypic shrub thickets is a protracted process that slows the restoration of degraded forest land. Invasive shrub removal can be accelerated by using forestry mulching heads, but evidence from the western United States indicates that mulching heads can promote exotic species establishment and mulch deposition can reduce native plant species abundance. We compared the effectiveness of the mulching head and the “cut-stump” method for controlling the invasive shrub Amur honeysuckle (Lonicera maackii), as well as their impacts on native plant community recovery, in mixed-hardwood forests of Indiana. After two growing seasons, mulching head treatment resulted in greater L. maackii regrowth and regeneration. The recovery of native plant abundance and diversity following shrub removal did not differ between the two methods. However, mulch deposition was associated with increased abundance of garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata), an invasive forb. Increasing mulching head treatment depth reduced L. maackii regrowth, but additional study is needed to determine how it affects plant community responses. The mulching head is a promising technique for invasive shrub control and investigating tradeoffs between reducing landscape-scale propagule pressure and increased local establishment will further inform its utility.

Temperature and photoperiod drive spring phenology across all species in a temperate forest community

Accurate predictions of spring plant phenology with climate change are critical for projections of growing seasons, plant communities and a number of ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Progress towards prediction, however, has been slow because the major cues known to drive phenology - temperature (including winter chilling and spring forcing) and photoperiod - generally covary in nature and may interact, making accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change complex and nonlinear. Alternatively, recent work suggests many species may be dominated by one cue, which would make predictions much simpler. Here, we manipulated all three cues across 28 woody species from two North American forests. All species responded to all cues examined. Chilling exerted a strong effect, especially on budburst (-15.8 d), with responses to forcing and photoperiod greatest for leafout (-19.1 and -11.2 d, respectively). Interactions between chilling and forcing suggest that each cue may compensate somewhat for the other. Cues varied across species, leading to staggered leafout within each community and supporting the idea that phenology is a critical aspect of species' temporal niches. Our results suggest that predicting the spring phenology of communities will be difficult, as all species we studied could have complex, nonlinear responses to future warming.

Local environment, not local adaptation, drives leaf-out phenology in common gardens along an elevational gradient in Acadia National Park, Maine

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Climate-driven changes in phenology are substantially affecting ecological relationships and ecosystem processes. The role of variation among species has received particular attention; for example, variation among species' phenological responses to climate can disrupt trophic interactions and can influence plant performance. Variation within species in phenological responses to climate, however, has received much less attention, despite its potential role in ecological interactions and local adaptation to climate change.

METHODS

We constructed three common gardens across an elevation gradient on Cadillac Mountain in Acadia National Park, Maine, to test population-level responses in leaf-out phenology in a reciprocal transplant experiment. The experiment included three native species: low bush blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium), sheep's laurel (Kalmia angustifolia), and three-toothed cinquefoil (Sibbaldiopsis tridentata).

KEY RESULTS

Evidence for local adaptation of phenological response to temperature varied among the species, but was weak for all three. Rather, variation in phenological response to temperature appeared to be driven by local microclimate at each garden site and year-to-year variation in temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

Population-level adaptations in leaf-out phenology appear to be relatively unimportant for these species in Acadia National Park, perhaps a reflection of strong genetic mixing across elevations, or weak differences in selection on phenological response to spring temperatures at different elevations. These results concur with other observational data in Acadia and highlight the utility of experimental approaches to understand the importance of annual and local site variation in affecting phenology both among and within plant species.