Projected increases in intensity, frequency, and terrestrial carbon costs of compound drought and aridity events

Reconciling the Discrepancy in Projected Global Dryland Expansion in a Warming World

Continental drying and associated dryland expansion would accelerate environmental degradation and desertification. However, the rate of continental drying commonly assessed with an aridity index is inconsistent with observations and projections of widespread greening and increased global runoff. This raises questions about the accuracy of assessment methods and projections of continental drying and dryland dynamics in a warming world. Here we show that the continental drying trend has been exaggerated because the potential evapotranspiration (PET) and its rate of increase over time are grossly overestimated with the widely used Penman equations. Using an energy-based PET estimator, we bias correct the aridity index and find considerably weaker and less extensive continental drying (47% of the global land area) than the 61%-65% based on Penman equations. Dryland expansion is projected to occur over only 2.1% of global land area in a high-emission scenario in the 21st century. Moreover, the corrected aridity index and ecohydrological and hydroclimate projections all show no change in significance consistently in the extent of global drylands based on 32 climate models. These findings resolve the ongoing debate about global dryland expansion and have far-reaching implications for understanding long-term changes in the climate system and their impacts on terrestrial ecohydrological processes.

CETD, a global compound events detection and visualisation toolbox and dataset

Compound events (CEs) are attracting increased attention due to their significant societal and ecological impacts. However, their inherent complexity can pose challenges for climate scientists and practitioners, highlighting the need for a more approachable and intuitive framework for detecting and visualising CEs. Here, we introduce the Compound Events Toolbox and Dataset (CETD), which provides the first integrated, interactive, and extensible platform for CE detection and visualisation. Employing observations, reanalysis, and model simulations, CETD can quantify the frequency, duration, and severity of multiple CE types: multivariate, sequential, and concurrent events. It can analyse CEs often linked to severe impacts on human health, wildfires, and air pollution, such as hot-dry, wet-windy, and hot-dry-stagnation events. To validate the performance of CETD, we conduct statistical analyses for several high-impact events, such as the 2019 Australian wildfires and the 2022 European heatwaves. The accessibility and extensibility of CETD will benefit the broader community by enabling them to better understand and prepare for the risks and challenges posed by CEs in a warming world.

Planted Forests in China Have Higher Drought Risk Than Natural Forests

To improve the environment and mitigate climate change, China has implemented ambitious projects for natural forest protection and expanded planted forests. However, increased climate variability has led to more frequent and severe droughts, exacerbating the decline of these forests. The drought risk of planted forests is rarely assessed by considering both resistance and resilience, and comparative analyses between natural and planted forests are lacking. Here, we compared drought resistance and resilience in natural and planted forests across China using satellite observations from 2001 to 2020 to understand which forests were at higher risk of drought. The results showed that planted forests exhibited lower drought resistance and resilience compared to natural forests, particularly in subtropical broad-leaved evergreen forests and warm temperate deciduous broad-leaved forests. Moreover, drought resistance in planted forests significantly increased, while resilience decreased during 2011-2020 compared to 2001-2010, suggesting a shift in the strategies of planted forests to cope with drought stress. The higher drought risk in planted forests compared to natural forests was mainly attributed to lower forest canopy height and poorer soil nutrients, which limited resistance, and lower canopy height and severe drought characteristics (severity, duration, and frequency), which reduced resilience. These results underscore the higher potential risk of drought exposure in planted forests. To mitigate future drought impacts on planted forests under climate change, enhanced management strategies, including the preservation of natural forests and augmentation of structural diversity in planted forests, are imperative.

Dual controls of vapour pressure deficit and soil moisture on photosynthesis in a restored temperate bog

Despite only covering ~3 % of the land mass, peatlands store more carbon (C) per unit area than any other ecosystem. This is due to the discrepancy between C fixed by the plants (Gross primary productivity (GPP)) and decomposition. However, this C is vulnerable to frequent, severe droughts and changes in the peatland microclimate. Plants play a vital role in ecosystem C dynamics under drought by mediating water loss to the atmosphere (surface water vapour conductance) and GPP by the presence/absence of stomatal regulation. This is dependent on soil moisture, air temperature, and vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Although there is ample evidence of the role of VPD on stomatal regulation and GPP, the impact of soil moisture is still debated. We addressed this knowledge gap by investigating the role of bulk surface conductance of water vapour in shifts between climatic (Air temperature (Tair), incoming shortwave radiation (SWR) and VPD) and water limitation of GPP in a peat bog in Canada. A causal analysis process was used to investigate how environmental factors influenced GPP. The results suggested that stomatal regulation in response to increased VPD caused the reduction in GPP in 2016 (~2.5 gC m-2 day-1 as opposed to ~3 gC m-2 day-1 in 2018). In contrast, GPP was limited again in 2019 due to the dry surface. This was driven by the relaxed stomatal regulation adopted by the ecosystem following the initial drought to maximise C assimilation. We found the threshold at which surface water decline limited GPP was at about -8 cm water table depth (82.5 % soil moisture). The causal inference corroborated our findings. The temporal variations of water and energy limitation seen in this study could increasingly restrict GPP due to the projected climate warming.

Disentangling Effects of Vegetation Structure and Physiology on Land-Atmosphere Coupling

Terrestrial vegetation is a key component of the Earth system, regulating the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between land and atmosphere. Vegetation affects soil moisture dynamics by absorbing and transpiring soil water, thus modulating land-atmosphere interactions. Moreover, changes in vegetation structure (e.g., leaf area index) and physiology (e.g., stomatal regulation), due to climate change and forest management, also influence land-atmosphere interactions. However, the relative roles of vegetation structure and physiology in modulating land-atmosphere interactions are not well understood globally. Here, we investigate the contributions of vegetation structure and physiology to the coupling between soil moisture (SM) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) while also considering the contributions of influential hydro-meteorological variables. We focus on periods when SM is below normal in the growing season to explicitly study the regulation of vegetation on SM-VPD coupling during soil dryness. We use an explainable machine learning approach to quantify and study the sensitivity of SM-VPD coupling to vegetation variables. We find that vegetation structure and physiology exert strong control on SM-VPD coupling in cold and temperate regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Vegetation structure and physiology show similar and predominant negative sensitivity on SM-VPD coupling, with increases of vegetation dynamics leading to stronger negative SM-VPD coupling. Our analysis based on Earth system model simulations reveals that models largely reproduce the effect of vegetation physiology on SM-VPD coupling, but they misrepresent the role of vegetation structure. This way, our results guide model development and highlight that the deeper understanding of the roles of vegetation structure and physiology serves as a prerequisite to more accurate projections of future climate and ecosystems.

Weakening of global terrestrial carbon sequestration capacity under increasing intensity of warm extremes

The net ecosystem exchange (NEE), determining terrestrial carbon sequestration capacity, is strongly controlled by climate change and has exhibited substantial year-to-year fluctuations. How the increased frequency and intensity of warm extremes affect NEE variations remains unclear. Here, we combined multiple NEE datasets from atmospheric CO2 inversions, Earth system models, eddy-covariance data-driven methods and climate datasets to show that the terrestrial carbon sequestration capacity is weakened during warm extreme occurrences over the past 40 years, primarily contributed by tropical regions (81% ± 48%). The underlying mechanism can be rooted in the overwhelmingly decreased trend of gross primary productivity compared with terrestrial ecosystem respiration. Additionally, the weakened terrestrial carbon sequestration capacity is mainly driven by the transition from temperature or soil moisture control to vapour pressure deficit control, which is associated with the increasing intensity of warm extremes. Our findings suggest that warm extremes threaten the global carbon sequestration function of terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, more attention should be given to the evolution of the increasing intensity of warm extremes in future climate projections.

Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening

Compound soil drought and heat extremes are expected to occur more frequently with global warming, causing wide-ranging socio-ecological repercussions. Vegetation modulates air temperature and soil moisture through biophysical processes, thereby influencing the occurrence of such extremes. Global vegetation cover is broadly expected to increase under climate change, but it remains unclear whether vegetation greening will alleviate or aggravate future increases in compound soil drought-heat events. Here, using a suite of state-of-the-art model simulations, we show that the projected vegetation greening will increase the frequency of global compound soil drought-heat events, equivalent to 12-21% of the total increment at the end of 21st century. This increase is predominantly driven by reduced albedo and enhanced transpiration associated with increased leaf area. Although greening-induced transpiration enhancement has counteracting cooling and drying effects, the excessive water loss in the early growing season can lead to later soil moisture deficits, amplifying compound soil drought-heat extremes during the subsequent warm season. These changes are most pronounced in northern high latitudes and are dominated by the warming effect of CO2. Our study highlights the necessity of integrating vegetation biophysical effects into mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing compound climate risks.

The optimal applications of scPDSI and SPEI in characterizing meteorological drought, agricultural drought and terrestrial water availability on a global scale

The Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are two of the most commonly used drought indices. However, scPDSI and SPEI at a specific scale are often used interchangeably to characterize meteorological drought, agricultural drought, or terrestrial water availability, leading to potential inaccuracies in research outcomes. This study thus presents a global-scale assessment of the applications of scPDSI and SPEI at various timescales (SPEIs) in these contexts. Our findings indicate that scPDSI is more suitable for monitoring agricultural drought than meteorological drought, and highlight the effectiveness of SPEI at one month scale (SPEI01) for meteorological drought. Additionally, SPEI at nine months scale (SPEI09) is more appropriate for agricultural drought. Regarding their relationship with vegetation water stress, scPDSI and SPEI09 are more closely associated with root-zone soil moisture, while SPEI01 is most closely linked to vapor pressure deficit. Furthermore, we evaluate the capability of scPDSI and SPEI in representing terrestrial water availability by analyzing the responses of diverse vegetation indicators to them, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). All four vegetation indicators show the highest sensitivity of negative response to SPEI01 in cold climate regions, suggesting SPEI01 is most applicable in these regions. In drylands, vegetation indicators exhibit higher sensitivity of positive responses to SPEI at six months scale (SPEI06) and SPEI09, indicating SPEI06 and SPEI09 effectively characterize water availability in such areas. These findings enhance the understanding of scPDSI and SPEI, providing clearer guidelines for their global-scale applications in meteorological drought, agricultural drought, and terrestrial water availability.

Tropospheric ozone pollution increases the sensitivity of plant production to vapor pressure deficit across diverse ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere

Tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution often accompanies droughts and heatwaves, which could collectively reduce plant productivity. Previous research suggested that O3 pollution can alter plant responses to drought by interfering with stomatal closure while drought can reduce stomatal conductance and provide protection against O3 stress. However, the interactions between O3 pollution and drought stress remain poorly understood at ecosystem scales with diverse plant functional types. To address this research gap, we used 10-year (2012-2021) satellite near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) observations, reanalysis data of vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture (SM), and air temperature (Ta), along with O3 measurements and reanalysis data across the Northern Hemisphere to statistically disentangle the interconnections between NIRv, VPD, SM, and Ta under varying O3 levels. We found that high O3 concentrations significantly exacerbate the sensitivity of NIRv to VPD while have no notable impacts on the sensitivity of NIRv to Ta or SM for all plant functional types, indicating an enhanced combined impact of VPD and O3 on plants. Specifically, the sensitivity of NIRv to VPD increased by >75 % when O3 anomalies increased from the lowest 10 to the highest 10 percentiles across diverse plant functional types. This is likely because long-term exposure to high O3 concentrations can inhibit stomatal closure and photosynthetic enzyme activities, resulting in reduced water use efficiency and photosynthetic efficiency. This study highlights the need to consider O3 in understanding plant responses to climate factors and that O3 can alter plant responses to VPD independently of Ta and SM.

Evidence for the acclimation of ecosystem photosynthesis to soil moisture

Ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest carbon flux between the atmosphere and biosphere and is strongly influenced by soil moisture. However, the response and acclimation of GPP to soil moisture remain poorly understood, leading to large uncertainties in characterizing the impact of soil moisture on GPP in Earth system models. Here we analyze the GPP-soil moisture response curves at 143 sites from the global FLUXNET. We find that GPP at 108 sites exhibits hump-shaped response curves with increasing soil moisture, and an apparent optimum soil moisture (SM opt GPP , at which GPP reaches the maximum) exists widely with large variability among sites and biomes around the globe. Variation inSM opt GPP is mostly explained by local water availability, with drier ecosystems having lowerSM opt GPP than wetter ecosystems, reflecting the water acclimation ofSM opt GPP . This acclimation is further supported by a field experiment that only manipulates water and keeps other factors constant, which shows a downward shift inSM opt GPP after long-term water deficit, and thus a lower soil water requirement to maximize GPP. These results provide compelling evidence for the widespreadSM opt GPP and its acclimation, shedding new light on understanding and predicting carbon-climate feedbacks.

Trigger thresholds and their dynamics of vegetation production loss under different atmospheric and soil drought conditions

Many evidences have shown that both atmospheric and soil droughts can constrain vegetation growth and further threaten its ability to sequester carbon. However, the trigger thresholds of vegetation production loss under different atmospheric and soil drought conditions are still unknown. In this study, we proposed a Copula and Bayesian equations-based framework to investigate trigger thresholds of various vegetation production losses under different atmospheric and soil drought conditions. The trigger thresholds dynamics and their possible causes were also investigated. To achieve this goal, we first simulated the gross primary production, soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit over China during 1961-2018 using an individual-based, spatially explicit dynamic global vegetation model. The main drivers of the dynamic change in trigger thresholds were then explored by Random Forest model. We found that soil drought caused greater stress on gross primary production loss than atmospheric drought, with a larger impact area and higher probability of damage. In terms of spatial distribution, the risk probability of gross primary production loss was higher in eastern China than in western China, and the drought trigger threshold was also smaller in eastern China. In addition, the trigger thresholds for atmospheric and soil drought in most regions exhibited a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2018, while the CO2 fertilization enhanced the drought tolerance of vegetation. The reduction in CO2 fertilization effect slowed down the downward trend of trigger threshold for soil drought, while the increase in temperature exacerbated the downward trend of trigger threshold for atmospheric drought. This study highlighted the larger effect of soil drought on vegetation production loss than atmospheric drought and implied that climate change can modulate the trigger threshold of vegetation production losses under drought conditions. These findings provide scientific guidance for managing the increasing risk of drought on vegetation and optimizing watershed water allocation.

Reduced actual vapor pressure exerts a significant influence on maize yield through vapor pressure deficit amid climate warming

Understanding the impact of climate warming on crop yield and its associated mechanisms is paramount for ensuring food security. Here, we conduct a thorough analysis of the impact of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on maize yield, leveraging a rich dataset comprising temporal and spatial observations spanning 40 years across 31 maize-growing locations in Northeast and North China. Our investigation extends to the influencing meteorological factors that drive changes in VPD during the maize growing phase. Regression analysis reveals a linear negative relationship between VPD and maize yield, demonstrating diverse spatiotemporal characteristics. Spatially, maize yield exhibits higher sensitivity to VPD in Northeast China (NEC), despite the higher VPD levels in North China Plain (NCP). The opposite patterns reveal that high VPD not invariably lead to detrimental yield impacts. Temporal analysis sheds light on an upward trend in VPD, with values of 0.05 and 0.02 kPa/10yr, accompanied by significant abrupt changes around 1996 in NEC and 2006 in NCP, respectively. These temporal shifts contribute to the heightened sensitivity of maize yield in both regions. Importantly, we emphasize the need to pay closer attention to the substantial the impact of actual vapor pressure on abrupt VPD changes during the maize growing phase, particularly in the context of ongoing climate warming.

Mistletoe-induced carbon, water and nutrient imbalances are imprinted on tree rings

Mistletoes are xylem-tapping hemiparasites that rely on their hosts for water and nutrient uptake. Thus, they impair tree performance in the face of environmental stress via altering the carbon and water relations and nutritional status of trees. To improve our understanding of physiological responses to mistletoe and ongoing climate change, we investigated radial growth, stable carbon and oxygen isotopic signals, and elemental composition of tree rings in silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests infested with Viscum album L. We compared temporal series (1990-2020) of basal area increment (BAI), intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), oxygen isotope composition (δ18O), nutrient concentrations and stoichiometric ratios between non-infested (NI) and severely infested (SI) fir and pine trees from populations located close to the xeric distribution limit of the species in north-eastern Spain. The SI trees showed historically higher growth, but the BAI trend was negative for more than three decades before 2020 and their growth rates became significantly lower than those of NI trees by the mid-2010s. Mistletoe infestation was related to an enhanced sensitivity of radial growth to vapour pressure deficit (atmospheric drought). The SI trees showed less pronounced iWUE increases (fir) and lower iWUE values (pine) than NI trees. The lower tree-ring δ18O values of SI trees may be the result of several superimposed effects operating simultaneously, including leaf-level evaporative enrichment, source water isotopic signals, and anatomical and phenological differences. We observed a deterioration of potassium (K) nutrition in tree-ring wood of both species in SI trees, along with accumulation of manganese (Mn). We suggest that such nutritional patterns are driven by the indirect effect of mistletoe-induced drought stress, particularly in pine. The combined analyses of different physiological indicators imprinted on tree rings provided evidence of the progressive onset of carbon, water and nutrient imbalances in mistletoe-infested conifers inhabiting seasonally dry regions.

The impacts of rising vapour pressure deficit in natural and managed ecosystems

An exponential rise in the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is among the most consequential impacts of climate change in terrestrial ecosystems. Rising VPD has negative and cascading effects on nearly all aspects of plant function including photosynthesis, water status, growth and survival. These responses are exacerbated by land-atmosphere interactions that couple VPD to soil water and govern the evolution of drought, affecting a range of ecosystem services including carbon uptake, biodiversity, the provisioning of water resources and crop yields. However, despite the global nature of this phenomenon, research on how to incorporate these impacts into resilient management regimes is largely in its infancy, due in part to the entanglement of VPD trends with those of other co-evolving climate drivers. Here, we review the mechanistic bases of VPD impacts at a range of spatial scales, paying particular attention to the independent and interactive influence of VPD in the context of other environmental changes. We then evaluate the consequences of these impacts within key management contexts, including water resources, croplands, wildfire risk mitigation and management of natural grasslands and forests. We conclude with recommendations describing how management regimes could be altered to mitigate the otherwise highly deleterious consequences of rising VPD.

The multidimensionality of plant drought stress: The relative importance of edaphic and atmospheric drought

Drought threatens plant growth and related ecosystem services. The emergence of plant drought stress under edaphic drought is well studied, whilst the importance of atmospheric drought only recently gained momentum. Yet, little is known about the interaction and relative contribution of edaphic and atmospheric drought on the emergence of plant drought stress. We conducted a gradient experiment, fully crossing gravimetric water content (GWC: maximum water holding capacity-permanent wilting point) and vapour pressure deficit (VPD: 1-2.25 kPa) using five wheat varieties from three species (Triticum monococcum, T. durum & T. aestivum). We quantified the occurrence of plant drought stress on molecular (abscisic acid), cellular (stomatal conductance), organ (leaf water potential) and stand level (evapotranspiration). Plant drought stress increased with decreasing GWC across all organizational levels. This effect was magnified nonlinearly by VPD after passing a critical threshold of soil water availability. At around 20%GWC (soil matric potential 0.012 MPa), plants lost their ability to regulate leaf water potential via stomata regulation, followed by the emergence of hydraulic dysfunction. The emergence of plant drought stress is characterized by changing relative contributions of soil versus atmosphere and their non-linear interaction. This highly non-linear response is likely to abruptly alter plant-related ecosystem services in a drying world.

Increased crossing of thermal stress thresholds of vegetation under global warming

Temperature extremes exert a significant influence on terrestrial ecosystems, but the precise levels at which these extremes trigger adverse shifts in vegetation productivity have remained elusive. In this study, we have derived two critical thresholds, using standard deviations (SDs) of growing-season temperature and satellite-based vegetation productivity as key indicators. Our findings reveal that, on average, vegetation productivity experiences rapid suppression when confronted with temperature anomalies exceeding 1.45 SD above the mean temperature during 2001-2018. Furthermore, at temperatures exceeding 2.98 SD above the mean, we observe the maximum level of suppression, particularly in response to the most extreme high-temperature events. When Earth System Models are driven by a future medium emission scenario, they project that mean temperatures will routinely surpass both of these critical thresholds by approximately the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, it is important to note that the timing of these threshold crossings exhibits spatial variation and will appear much earlier in tropical regions. Our finding highlights that restricting global warming to just 1.5°C can increase safe areas for vegetation growth by 13% compared to allowing warming to reach 2°C above preindustrial levels. This mitigation strategy helps avoid exposure to detrimental extreme temperatures that breach these thresholds. Our study underscores the pivotal role of climate mitigation policies in fostering the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems in a warming world.

Benchmarking the Humidity-Dependent Mechanical Response of (Nano)fibrillated Cellulose and Dissolved Polysaccharides as Sustainable Sand Amendments

Soil quality is one of the main limiting factor in the development of the food sector in arid areas, mainly due to its poor mechanics and lack of water retention. Soil's organic carbon is nearly absent in arid soils, though it is important for water and nutrient transport, to soil mechanics, to prevent erosion, and as a long-term carbon sink. In this study, we evaluate the potential benefits that are brought to inert sand by the incorporation of a range of, mainly, cellulosic networks in their polymeric or structured (fiber) forms, analogously to those found in healthy soils. We explore the impact of a wide range of nonfood polysaccharide-based amendments, including pulp fibers, nanocellulose, cellulose derivatives, and other readily available polysaccharide structures derived from arthropods (chitosan) or fruit peels (pectin) residues. A practical methodology is presented to form sand-polymer composites, which are evaluated for their soil mechanics as a function of humidity and the dynamics of their response to water. The mechanics are correlated to the network of polymers formed within the pores of the sandy soil, as observed by electron microscopy. The response to water is correlated to both the features of the network and the individual polysaccharides' physicochemical features. We expect this work to provide a rapid and reproducible methodology to benchmark sustainable organic amendments for arid soils.

Declined terrestrial ecosystem resilience

Terrestrial ecosystem resilience is crucial for maintaining the structural and functional stability of ecosystems following disturbances. However, changes in resilience over the past few decades and the risk of future resilience loss under ongoing climate change are unclear. Here, we identified resilience trends using two remotely sensed vegetation indices, analyzed the relative importance of potential driving factors to resilience changes, and finally assessed the risk of future resilience loss based on the output data of eight models from CMIP6. The results revealed that more than 60% of the ecosystems experienced a conversion from an increased trend to a declined trend in resilience. Attribution analysis showed that the most important driving factors of declined resilience varied regionally. The declined trends in resilience were associated with increased precipitation variability in the tropics, decreased vegetation cover in arid region, increased temperature variability in temperate regions, and increased average temperature in cold regions. CMIP6 reveals that terrestrial ecosystems under SPP585 are expected to experience more intense declines in resilience than those under SSP126 and SSP245, particularly in cold regions. These results highlight the risk of continued degradation of ecosystem resilience in the future and the urgency of climate mitigation actions.

Contrasting impact of extreme soil and atmospheric dryness on the functioning of trees and forests

Recent studies indicate an increase in the frequency of extreme compound dryness days (days with both extreme soil AND air dryness) across central Europe in the future, with little information on their impact on the functioning of trees and forests. This study aims to quantify and assess the impact of extreme soil dryness, extreme air dryness, and extreme compound dryness on the functioning of trees and forests. For this, >15 years of ecosystem-level (carbon dioxide and water vapor fluxes) and 6-10 years of tree-level measurements (transpiration and growth) each from a montane mixed deciduous forest (CH-Lae) and a subalpine evergreen coniferous forest (CH-Dav) in Switzerland, is used. The results showed extreme air dryness limitation on CO2 fluxes and extreme soil dryness limitations on water vapor fluxes. Additionally, CH-Dav was mainly affected by extreme air dryness whereas CH-Lae was affected by both extreme soil dryness and extreme air dryness. The impact of extreme compound dryness on net CO2 uptake (about 75 % decrease) was more due to higher increased ecosystem respiration (40 % and 70 % increase at CH-Dav and CH-Lae, respectively) than decreased gross primary productivity (10 % and 40 % decrease at CH-Dav and CH-Lae, respectively). A significant negative impact on evapotranspiration and transpiration was only observed at CH-Lae during extreme soil and compound dryness (about 25 % decrease). Furthermore, with some differences, the tree-level impact on tree water deficit, transpiration, and growth were consistent with the ecosystem-level impact on carbon uptake and evapotranspiration. Finally, the impact of extreme dryness showed no significant relationship with tree allometry (diameter and height) but across different tree species. The projected future is likely to expose these forest areas to more extreme and frequent dryness conditions, thus compromising the functioning of trees and forests, thereby calling for management interventions to increase the adaptive capacity and resistance of these forests.

Greater ecophysiological stress tolerance in the core environment than in extreme environments of wild chickpea (Cicer reticulatum)

Global climate change and land use change underlie a need to develop new crop breeding strategies, and crop wild relatives (CWR) have become an important potential source of new genetic material to improve breeding efforts. Many recent approaches assume adaptive trait variation increases towards the relative environmental extremes of a species range, potentially missing valuable trait variation in more moderate or typical climates. Here, we leveraged distinct genotypes of wild chickpea (Cicer reticulatum) that differ in their relative climates from moderate to more extreme and perform targeted assessments of drought and heat tolerance. We found significance variation in ecophysiological function and stress tolerance between genotypes but contrary to expectations and current paradigms, it was individuals from more moderate climates that exhibited greater capacity for stress tolerance than individuals from warmer and drier climates. These results indicate that wild germplasm collection efforts to identify adaptive variation should include the full range of environmental conditions and habitats instead of only environmental extremes, and that doing so may significantly enhance the success of breeding programs broadly.

Weak local adaptation to drought in seedlings of a widespread conifer

Tree seedlings from populations native to drier regions are often assumed to be more drought tolerant than those from wetter provenances. However, intraspecific variation in drought tolerance has not been well-characterized despite being critical for developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, and for predicting the effects of drought on forests. We used a large-scale common garden drought-to-death experiment to assess range-wide variation in drought tolerance, measured by decline of photosynthetic efficiency, growth, and plastic responses to extreme summer drought in seedlings of 73 natural populations of the two main varieties of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii and var. glauca). Local adaptation to drought was weak in var. glauca and nearly absent in menziesii. Var. glauca showed higher tolerance to drought but slower growth than var. menziesii. Clinal variation in drought tolerance and growth species-wide was mainly associated with temperature rather than precipitation. A higher degree of plasticity for growth was observed in var. menziesii in response to extreme drought. Genetic variation for drought tolerance in seedlings within varieties is maintained primarily within populations. Selective breeding within populations may facilitate adaptation to drought more than assisted gene flow.

Changes in vegetation in China's drylands are closely related to afforestation compared with climate change

The response of vegetation to climate change and human activities has attracted considerable attention. However, quantitative studies on the effects of climate change and human activities on dryland vegetation in different seasons remain unclear. This study investigated the impacts of precipitation, temperature, soil water storage (SWS) (top [0-7 cm], shallow [7-28 cm], and middle [28-100 cm] layers), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and afforestation on vegetation as well as their relative contribution rates during the rainy season ([RS], June to September), dry season ([DS], November to April), transition season ([TS], May and October), and all year period (AY) in China's drylands from 2001 to 2020 using the first-difference method. Areas with precipitation and SWS showing significant positive correlation with dryland vegetation (p < 0.05) were found to be larger in RS than in DS and TS, and the positive effect of SWS increased with soil depth in the 0-28 cm interval. Increasing VPD induced a significant negative effect on vgetation during RS but it was not predominant in DS and TS. Afforestation showed an extremely significant positive correlated with dryland vegetation across >60 % of China's dryland areas (p < 0.01), but this improvement was found to be limited to regions with the highest afforestation area. Moreover, dryland vegetation dynamics were driven by afforestation in all seasons, with contribution rates of 64.23 %-71.46 %. The effects of SWS and VPD on vegetation driven by precipitation and temperature exceeded the direct effects of precipitation and temperature. Among climatic factors, VPD showed a major regulating effect on dryland vegetation at the top and shallow soil layers in almost all seasons, whereas the relative contribution rate of SWS increased with soil layer. The findings can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable development and protection of drylands under global warming.

The rising human footprint in the Tibetan Plateau threatens the effectiveness of ecological restoration on vegetation growth

Ecological restoration projects in the Tibetan Plateau aimed to reverse ecosystem degradation and safeguard the fragile alpine ecological environment. However, it is still being determined if the vegetation restoration is successful on a large scale or reaches the expected magnitude, restricting our ability to adapt practices to maximise the benefit. With multiple vegetation indices (VIs: NDVI, LAI, and GPP) from satellite observations and random forest machine-learning models, we performed an attribution study on vegetation growth trends caused by climate change and human activities. Then, we further explored the relationship between vegetation growth and ecological projects and human footprint without the influence of climate. The results showed that climatic change was a relatively strong driver of vegetation growth. The positive contributions of ecological restoration occurred only in half of the plateau due to the increased human footprint. Vegetation enhancement resulting from ecological restoration occurred in 13.1%-23.1% of the plateau. Among these values, ecological restoration counteracted the negative climate effects in 4.7%-8.3% of the plateau (about half of the negative climate effect area). In forest and grassland protection areas, the ecological restoration was more successful. The study provides a better understanding of the role of ecological projects in vegetation restoration and potential threats to its effectiveness. This is essential to improve future restoration projects.

Chronic drought alters extractable concentrations of mineral elements in Mediterranean forest soils

Soil mineral elements play a crucial role in ecosystem productivity and pollution dynamics. Climate models project an increase in drought severity in the Mediterranean Basin in the coming decades, which could lead to changes in the composition and concentrations of mineral elements in soils. These changes can have significant impacts on the fundamental processes of plant-soil cycles. While previous studies have predominantly focused on carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus, there is a notable lack of research on the biogeochemical responses of other mineral elements to increasing drought. In this study, we investigated the effects of chronic drought (15 years of experimental rainfall exclusion) and seasonal drought (summer period) on the extractable soil concentrations of 17 mineral elements (arsenic (As), calcium (Ca), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), mercury (Hg), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), manganese (Mn), molybdenum (Mo), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), sulphur (S), strontium (Sr), vanadium (V) and zinc (Zn)) in a Mediterranean holm oak forest. We also explored the potential biotic and abiotic mechanisms underlying the changes in extractable elemental concentrations under chronic drought conditions. Our findings reveal that soil elemental concentrations varied significantly due to seasonal changes and chronic drought, with soil microclimate, biological activity, and organic matter being the main drivers of this variability. Levels of soil water content primarily explained the observed variations in soil elemental concentrations. Most of the mineral elements (13 out of 17) exhibited higher concentrations during winter-spring (wet seasons) compared to summer-autumn (dry seasons). The chronic drought treatment resulted in K limitation, increasing vegetation vulnerability to drought stress. Conversely, the accumulation of S in soils due to drought may intensify the risk of S losses from the plant-soil system. Under drought conditions, certain trace elements (particularly Mn, V, and Cd) exhibited increased extractability, posing potential risks to plant health and the exportation of these elements into continental waters. Overall, our results suggest that alterations in mineral element concentrations under future drier conditions could promote ecosystem degradation and pollution dispersion in the Mediterranean Basin. Understanding and predicting these changes are essential for effective ecosystem management and mitigating the potential negative impacts on plant health and water quality.

Divergent impacts of VPD and SWC on ecosystem carbon-water coupling under different dryness conditions

Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) is an indicator of carbon-water interactions and is defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET). However, it is currently unclear how WUE responds to atmospheric and soil drought events in terrestrial ecosystems with different dryness conditions. Additionally, the contributions of GPP and ET to the WUE response remain poorly understood. Based on measurements from 26 flux tower sites distributed worldwide, the binning method and random forest model were employed to separate the sensitivities of daily ecosystem WUE, GPP, and ET to vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil water content (SWC) under different dryness conditions (dryness index = potential evapotranspiration/precipitation, DI). Results showed that the sensitivity of WUE to VPD was negative at humid sites (DI < 1), while the sensitivity of WUE to SWC was positive at arid sites (DI > 2). Furthermore, the contribution of GPP to VPD-induced WUE variability was 63 % at humid sites, and the contribution of ET to SWC-induced WUE variability was 68 % when SWC was less than the 60th percentile at arid sites. Consequently, one increasing VPD-induced decrease in GPP was generally linked to a decrease in WUE at humid sites, and one drying soil moisture-caused decrease in ET was linked to a WUE increase under low SWC conditions at arid sites. Finally, VPD had a stronger effect on WUE than SWC when VPD was less than the 90th percentile or SWC was greater than the 50th percentile. Our findings underscore the importance of considering ecosystem dryness when investigating the impacts of VPD and SWC on ecosystem carbon-water coupling.

Detection and attribution of the start of the growing season changes in the Northern Hemisphere

Global climate change has led to significant changes in land surface phenology. At present, research on the factors influencing the start of the growing season (SOS) mainly focuses on single factor effects, such as temperature and precipitation, ignoring the combined action of multiple factors. The impact of multiple factors on the spatial and temporal patterns of the SOS in the Northern Hemisphere is not clear, and it is necessary to combine multiple factors to quantify the degrees of influence of different factors on the SOS. Based on the GIMMS3g NDVI dataset, CRU climate data and other factor data, we used geographic detector model, random forest regression model, multiple linear regression, partial correlation analysis and Sen + Mann-Kendall trend analysis to explore the variation of the SOS in the Northern Hemisphere to reveal the main driving factors and impact threshold of 17 influencing factors on the SOS. The results showed that (1) during the past 34 years (1982-2015), the SOS in Europe and Asia mainly showed an advancing trend, whereas the SOS in North America mainly showed a delaying trend. (2) The SOS was mainly controlled by frost frequency, temperature and humidity. Increasing frost frequency inhibited the advancement of the SOS, and increasing temperature and humidity promoted the advancement of the SOS. (3) There were thresholds for the influences of the driving factors on the SOS. Outside the threshold ranges, the response mechanism of the SOS to driving factors changed. The results are important for understanding the response of the SOS to global climate change.

Diverse responses of gross primary production and leaf area index to drought on the Mongolian Plateau

Drought is a crucial factor regulating vegetation growth on the Mongolian Plateau (MP). Previous studies of drought effects on the MP have mainly concentrated on drought characterization, while the response of vegetation to drought remains unclear. To close this knowledge gap, we examined the response of MP vegetation to drought in terms of gross primary production (GPP) and leaf area index (LAI) from 1982 to 2018. Our findings show that intra-seasonally the frequency of drought occurrence in autumn had a greater impact on GPP (relative importance over 70 %), while the intensity of drought was more influential for LAI (relative importance approximately 60 %). Inter-seasonally, summer droughts had the most pronounced effect on vegetation (with median standardized anomalies of -0.72 for GPP and -0.4 for LAI, respectively). Additionally, we found that meteorological drought was more consistent with atmospheric aridity (high vapor pressure deficit) than soil drought (low soil moisture). This study advances knowledge of vegetation's susceptibility to climate extremes and improves the precision of predicting ecosystem response to climate change.

Soil moisture dominates the variation of gross primary productivity during hot drought in drylands

The frequency and severity of hot drought will increase in the future due to impact of climate change and human activities, threatening the sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems and human societies. Hot drought is a typical type of drought event, high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and low soil moisture (SM) are its main characteristics of hot drought, with increasing water stress on vegetation and exacerbating hydrological drought and ecosystem risks. However, our understanding of the effects of high VPD and low SM on vegetation productivity is limited, because these two variables are strongly coupled and influenced by other climatic drivers. The southwestern United States experienced one of the most severe hot drought events on record in 2020. In this study, we used SM and gross primary productivity (GPP) datasets from Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP), as well as VPD and other meteorological datasets from gridMET. We decoupled the effects of different meteorological factors on GPP at monthly and daily scales using partial correlation analysis, partial least squares regression, and binning methods. We found that SM anomalies contribute more to GPP anomalies than VPD anomalies at monthly and daily scales. Especially at the daily scale, as the decoupled SM anomalies increased, the GPP anomalies increased. However, there is no significant change in GPP anomalies as VPD increases. For all the vegetation types and arid zones, SM dominated the variation in GPP, followed by VPD or maximum temperature. At the flux tower scale, decoupled soil water content (SWC) also dominated changes in GPP, compared to VPD. In the next century, hot drought will occur frequently in dryland regions, where GPP is one of the highest uncertainties in terrestrial ecosystems. Our study has important implications for identifying the strong coupling of meteorological factors and their impact on vegetation under climate change.

Diagnosing evapotranspiration responses to water deficit across biomes using deep learning

Accounting for water limitation is key to determining vegetation sensitivity to drought. Quantifying water limitation effects on evapotranspiration (ET) is challenged by the heterogeneity of vegetation types, climate zones and vertically along the rooting zone. Here, we train deep neural networks using flux measurements to study ET responses to progressing drought conditions. We determine a water stress factor (fET) that isolates ET reductions from effects of atmospheric aridity and other covarying drivers. We regress fET against the cumulative water deficit, which reveals the control of whole-column moisture availability. We find a variety of ET responses to water stress. Responses range from rapid declines of fET to 10% of its water-unlimited rate at several savannah and grassland sites, to mild fET reductions in most forests, despite substantial water deficits. Most sensitive responses are found at the most arid and warm sites. A combination of regulation of stomatal and hydraulic conductance and access to belowground water reservoirs, whether in groundwater or deep soil moisture, could explain the different behaviors observed across sites. This variety of responses is not captured by a standard land surface model, likely reflecting simplifications in its representation of belowground water storage.

Vegetation browning: global drivers, impacts, and feedbacks

As global climate conditions continue to change, disturbance regimes and environmental drivers will continue to shift, impacting global vegetation dynamics. Following a period of vegetation greening, there has been a progressive increase in remotely sensed vegetation browning globally. Given the many societal benefits that forests provide, it is critical that we understand vegetation dynamic alterations. Here, we review associative drivers, impacts, and feedbacks, revealing the complexity of browning. Concomitant increases in browning include the weakening of ecosystem services and functions and alterations to vegetation structure and species composition, as well as the development of potential positive climate change feedbacks. Also discussed are the current challenges in browning detection and understanding associated impacts and feedbacks. Finally, we outline recommended strategies.

Long-term changes in forest response to extreme atmospheric dryness

Atmospheric dryness, as indicated by vapor pressure deficit (VPD), has a strong influence on forest greenhouse gas exchange with the atmosphere. In this study, we used long-term (10-30 years) net ecosystem productivity (NEP) measurements from 60 forest sites across the world (1003 site-years) to quantify long-term changes in forest NEP resistance and NEP recovery in response to extreme atmospheric dryness. We tested two hypotheses: first, across sites differences in NEP resistance and NEP recovery of forests will depend on both the biophysical characteristics (i.e., leaf area index [LAI] and forest type) of the forest as well as on the local meteorological conditions of the site (i.e., mean VPD of the site), and second, forests experiencing an increasing trend in frequency and intensity of extreme dryness will show an increasing trend in NEP resistance and NEP recovery over time due to emergence of long-term ecological stress memory. We used a data-driven statistical learning approach to quantify NEP resistance and NEP recovery over multiple years. Our results showed that forest types, LAI, and median local VPD conditions explained over 50% of variance in both NEP resistance and NEP recovery, with drier sites showing higher NEP resistance and NEP recovery compared to sites with less atmospheric dryness. The impact of extreme atmospheric dryness events on NEP lasted for up to 3 days following most severe extreme events in most forests, indicated by an NEP recovery of less than 100%. We rejected our second hypothesis as we found no consistent relationship between trends of extreme VPD with trends in NEP resistance and NEP recovery across different forest sites, thus an increase in atmospheric dryness as it is predicted might not increase the resistance or recovery of forests in terms of NEP.

Modelling the impact of forest management and CO2-fertilisation on growth and demography in a Sitka spruce plantation

Afforestation and reforestation to meet 'Net Zero' emissions targets are considered a necessary policy by many countries. Their potential benefits are usually assessed through forest carbon and growth models. The implementation of vegetation demography gives scope to represent forest management and other size-dependent processes within land surface models (LSMs). In this paper, we evaluate the impact of including management within an LSM that represents demography, using both in-situ and reanalysis climate drivers at a mature, upland Sitka spruce plantation in Northumberland, UK. We compare historical simulations with fixed and variable CO2 concentrations, and with and without tree thinning implemented. Simulations are evaluated against the observed vegetation structure and carbon fluxes. Including thinning and the impact of increasing CO2 concentration ('CO2 fertilisation') gave more realistic estimates of stand-structure and physical characteristics. Historical CO2 fertilisation had a noticeable effect on the Gross Primary Productivity seasonal-diurnal cycle and contributed to approximately 7% higher stand biomass by 2018. The net effect of both processes resulted in a decrease of tree density and biomass, but an increase in tree height and leaf area index.

Disentangling the effects of vapor pressure deficit on northern terrestrial vegetation productivity

The impact of atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on plant photosynthesis has long been acknowledged, but large interactions with air temperature (T) and soil moisture (SM) still hinder a complete understanding of the influence of VPD on vegetation production across various climate zones. Here, we found a diverging response of productivity to VPD in the Northern Hemisphere by excluding interactive effects of VPD with T and SM. The interactions between VPD and T/SM not only offset the potential positive impact of warming on vegetation productivity but also amplifies the negative effect of soil drying. Notably, for high-latitude ecosystems, there occurs a pronounced shift in vegetation productivity's response to VPD during the growing season when VPD surpasses a threshold of 3.5 to 4.0 hectopascals. These results yield previously unknown insights into the role of VPD in terrestrial ecosystems and enhance our comprehension of the terrestrial carbon cycle's response to global warming.

Atmospheric dryness thresholds of grassland productivity decline in China

Atmospheric dryness events are bound to have a broad and profound impact on the functions and structures of grassland ecosystems. Current research has confirmed that atmospheric dryness is a key moisture constraint that inhibits grassland productivity, yet the risk threshold for atmospheric dryness to initiate ecosystem productivity loss has not been explored. Based on this, we used four terrestrial ecosystem models to simulate gross primary productivity (GPP) data, analyzed the role of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in regulating interannual variability in Chinese grasslands by focusing on the dependence structure of VPD and GPP, and then constructed a bivariate linkage function to calculate the conditional probability of ecosystem GPP loss under atmospheric dryness, and further analyzed the risk threshold of ecosystem GPP loss triggered by atmospheric dryness. The main results are as follows: we found that (1) the observed and modeled VPD of Chinese grasslands increases rapidly in both historical and future periods. VPD has a strongly negative regulation on ecosystem GPP, and atmospheric dryness is an important moisture constraint that causes deficit and even death to ecosystem GPP. (2) The probability of the enhanced atmospheric dryness that induced GPP decline in Chinese grasslands in the future period increases significantly. (3) When the VPD is higher than 40.07 and 27.65 percentile of the past and future time series, respectively, the risk threshold of slight ecosystem GPP loss can be easily initiated by atmospheric dryness. (4) When the VPD is higher than 82.57 and 65.09 percentile, respectively, the threshold of moderate ecosystem GPP loss can be exceeded by the benchmark probability. (5) The risk threshold of severe ecosystem GPP loss is not initiated by atmospheric dryness in the historical period, and the threshold of severe ecosystem GPP loss can be initiated when the future VPD is higher than 91.92 percentile. In total, a slight atmospheric dryness event is required to initiate a slight ecosystem GPP loss threshold, and a stronger atmospheric dryness event is required to initiate a severe ecosystem GPP loss. Our study enhances the understandings of past and future atmospheric dryness on grassland ecosystems, and strongly suggests that more attention be invested in improving next-generation models of vegetation dynamics processes with respect to the response of mechanisms of ecosystem to atmospheric dryness.

Compound droughts slow down the greening of the Earth

Vegetation response to soil and atmospheric drought has raised extensively controversy, however, the relative contributions of soil drought, atmospheric drought, and their compound droughts on global vegetation growth remain unclear. Combining the changes in soil moisture (SM), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and vegetation growth (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) during 1982-2015, here we evaluated the trends of these three drought types and quantified their impacts on global NDVI. We found that global VPD has increased 0.22 ± 0.05 kPa·decade^-1 during 1982-2015, and this trend was doubled after 1996 (0.32 ± 0.16 kPa·decade^-1 ) than before 1996 (0.16 ± 0.15 kPa·decade^-1 ). Regions with large increase in VPD trend generally accompanied with decreasing trend in SM, leading to a widespread increasing trend in compound droughts across 37.62% land areas. We further found compound droughts dominated the vegetation browning since late 1990s, contributing to a declined NDVI of 64.56%. Earth system models agree with the dominant role of compound droughts on vegetation growth, but their negative magnitudes are considerably underestimated, with half of the observed results (34.48%). Our results provided the evidence of compound droughts-induced global vegetation browning, highlighting the importance of correctly simulating the ecosystem-scale response to the under-appreciated exposure to compound droughts as it will increase with climate change.

Developing a novel framework to re-examine half a century of compound drought and heatwave events in mainland China

Compound drought and heatwave events (CDHEs) are more devastating than single drought or heatwave events and have gained widespread attention. However, previous studies have not investigated the impacts of the precipitation attenuation effect (PAE) (i.e., the effect of previous precipitation on the dryness and wetness of the current system is attenuated) and event merging (EM) (i.e., merging two CDHEs with short intervals into a single event). Moreover, few studies have assessed short-term CDHEs within monthly scales and their variation characteristics under different background temperatures. Here we propose a novel framework for assessing CDHEs on a daily scale and considering the PAE and EM. We applied this framework to mainland China and investigated the spatiotemporal variation of the CDHE indicators (spatial extent (CDHE_spa), frequency (CDHE_fre), duration (CHHE_dur), and severity (CDHE_sev)) from 1968 to 2019. The results suggested that ignoring the PAE and EM led to significant changes in the spatial distribution and magnitude of the CDHE indicators. Daily-scale assessments allowed for monitoring the detailed evolution of CDHEs and facilitated the timely development of mitigation measures. Mainland China experienced frequent CDHEs from 1968 to 2019 (except for the southwestern part of Northwest China (NWC) and the western part of Southwest China (SWC)), whereas, hotspot areas of CDHE_dur and CDHE_sev had a patchy distribution in different geographical subregions. The CDHE indicators were higher in the warmer 1994-2019 period than in the colder 1968-1993 period, but the rate of increase of the indicators was lower or there was a downward trend. Overall, CDHEs in mainland China have been in a state of remarkable continuous strengthening over the past half a century. This study provides a new quantitative analysis approach for CDHEs.

Remote sensing of atmospheric and soil water stress on ecosystem carbon and water use during flash droughts over eastern China

Flash droughts are often accompanied by large soil and atmospheric moisture deficits, and the concurrence of flash droughts and high temperature may have a great impact on the ecosystem. However, the stress of soil and atmospheric moisture deficits on carbon and water use of the ecosystem during flash droughts, especially during the drought periods with hot conditions, are unclear over a large region. In this study, we decoupled the atmospheric and soil water stress over eastern China by using vegetation productivity data and photosynthetically active radiation data retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The analysis is conducted during flash droughts and their sub-periods that are accompanied by high temperature and intense radiation from 2003 to 2018. The results showed that soil moisture (SM) stress was significantly greater than the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) stress on vegetation productivity in the humid regions of eastern China during flash droughts. However, high VPD controlled the water stress on light use efficiency (LUE) of vegetation over 55 % of the regions. For the hot periods of flash droughts, the area subjected to VPD stress on vegetation productivity significantly increased in semi-arid and semi-humid regions. The concurrent hot and drought conditions also increased water use efficiency (WUE) for most areas, which suggests that the reduction percentage of vegetation productivity is larger than that of evapotranspiration. Our research emphasized the severe impact of compound hot and flash drought conditions on vegetation carbon and water use from a remote sensing perspective.

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface

Negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) usually indicate severely impaired ecosystem services. These NEGs can result from diverse natural and anthropogenic causes, especially climate extremes (CEs). However, the relationship between NEGs and many types of CEs remains largely unknown at regional and global scales. Here, with satellite-derived vegetation index data and supporting tree-ring chronologies, we identify periods of NEGs from 1981 to 2015 across the global land surface. We find 70% of these NEGs are attributable to five types of CEs and their combinations, with compound CEs generally more detrimental than individual ones. More importantly, we find that dominant CEs for NEGs vary by biome and region. Specifically, cold and/or wet extremes dominate NEGs in temperate mountains and high latitudes, whereas soil drought and related compound extremes are primarily responsible for NEGs in wet tropical, arid and semi-arid regions. Key characteristics (e.g., the frequency, intensity and duration of CEs, and the vulnerability of vegetation) that determine the dominance of CEs are also region- and biome-dependent. For example, in the wet tropics, dominant individual CEs have both higher intensity and longer duration than non-dominant ones. However, in the dry tropics and some temperate regions, a longer CE duration is more important than higher intensity. Our work provides the first global accounting of the attribution of NEGs to diverse climatic extremes. Our analysis has important implications for developing climate-specific disaster prevention and mitigation plans among different regions of the globe in a changing climate.

A Long-term Consistent Artificial Intelligence and Remote Sensing-based Soil Moisture Dataset

The Consistent Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Soil Moisture (CASM) dataset is a global, consistent, and long-term, remote sensing soil moisture (SM) dataset created using machine learning. It is based on the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission SM data and is aimed at extrapolating SMAP-like quality SM back in time using previous satellite microwave platforms. CASM represents SM in the top soil layer, and it is defined on a global 25 km EASE-2 grid and for 2002-2020 with a 3-day temporal resolution. The seasonal cycle is removed for the neural network training to ensure its skill is targeted at predicting SM extremes. CASM comparison to 367 global in-situ SM monitoring sites shows a SMAP-like median correlation of 0.66. Additionally, the SM product uncertainty was assessed, and both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties were estimated and included in the dataset. CASM dataset can be used to study a wide range of hydrological, carbon cycle, and energy processes since only a consistent long-term dataset allows assessing changes in water availability and water stress.

Global concurrent climate extremes exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change

Increases in concurrent climate extremes in different parts of the world threaten the ecosystem and our society. However, spatial patterns of these extremes and their past and future changes remain unclear. Here, we develop a statistical framework to test for spatial dependence and show widespread dependence of temperature and precipitation extremes in observations and model simulations, with more frequent than expected concurrence of extremes around the world. Historical anthropogenic forcing has strengthened the concurrence of temperature extremes over 56% of 946 global paired regions, particularly in the tropics, but has not yet significantly affected concurrent precipitation extremes during 1901-2020. The future high-emissions pathway of SSP585 will substantially amplify the concurrence strength, intensity, and spatial extent for both temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over tropical and boreal regions, while the mitigation pathway of SSP126 can ameliorate the increase in concurrent climate extremes for these high-risk regions. Our findings will inform adaptation strategies to alleviate the impact of future climate extremes.

Interaction between dry and hot extremes at a global scale using a cascade modeling framework

Climate change amplifies dry and hot extremes, yet the mechanism, extent, scope, and temporal scale of causal linkages between dry and hot extremes remain underexplored. Here using the concept of system dynamics, we investigate cross-scale interactions within dry-to-hot and hot-to-dry extreme event networks and quantify the magnitude, temporal-scale, and physical drivers of cascading effects (CEs) of drying-on-heating and vice-versa, across the globe. We find that locations exhibiting exceptionally strong CE (hotspots) for dry-to-hot and hot-to-dry extremes generally coincide. However, the CEs differ strongly in their timescale of interaction, hydroclimatic drivers, and sensitivity to changes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum and background aridity. The CE of drying-on-heating in the hotspot locations reaches its peak immediately driven by the compounding influence of vapor pressure deficit, potential evapotranspiration, and precipitation. In contrast, the CE of heating-on-drying peaks gradually dominated by concurrent changes in potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, and net-radiation with the effect of vapor pressure deficit being strongly controlled by ecosystem isohydricity and background aridity. Our results help improve our understanding of the causal linkages and the predictability of compound extremes and related impacts.

Changes in the relationship between vapour pressure deficit and water use efficiency with the drought recovery time: A case study of the Yellow River Basin

Drought is a major driver of interannual variability in the gross primary productivity (GPP) of global terrestrial ecosystems, and drought recovery time has been widely used to assess ecosystem responses to drought. However, the response of the carbon-water coupled cycle to drought, especially changes in the correlation between drought intensity and carbon-water coupling throughout the recovery time, remains unclear. In this study, the Yellow River Basin (YRB) located mostly in drylands was the study area. We assessed the correlation between the standardized water vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and the water use efficiency of ecosystems (WUEe) and water use efficiency of canopies (WUEc) every month with the drought recovery time of GPP. We found that the drought intensity in the middle reach of the YRB (MYRB) was greater and the drought recovery time was longer than those in the upper reach (UYRB) and lower reach (LYRB) during the period from 2003 to 2017. In terms of the correlation between drought intensity and carbon-water coupling, the greater the VPD was, the lower the WUEc. In addition, the correlation of WUEc with VPD was higher than that of WUEe in most areas of the YRB, especially in the LYRB. On the watershed level, the correlation between the two types of WUE and VPD increased gradually with the recovery time, while the correlation between WUEc and VPD (mostly negative) changed more than the correlation between WUEe and VPD (mostly positive). Therefore, the response of WUEc to meteorological drought should be given more attention, especially during the middle and late stages of drought, since it exhibited an opposite signal compared to that of WUEe during drought recovery.

Soil moisture-atmosphere feedback dominates land N2 O nitrification emissions and denitrification reduction

Soil moisture (SM) is essential to microbial nitrogen (N)-cycling networks in terrestrial ecosystems. Studies have found that SM-atmosphere feedbacks dominate the changes in land carbon fluxes. However, the influence of SM-atmosphere feedbacks on the N fluxes changes, and the underlying mechanisms remain highly unsure, leading to uncertainties in climate projections. To fill this gap, we used in situ observation coupled with gridded and remote sensing data to analyze N₂ O fluxes emissions globally. Here, we investigated the synergistic effects of temperature, hydroclimate on global N₂ O fluxes, as the result of SM-atmosphere feedback impact on N fluxes. We found that SM-temperature feedback dominates land N₂ O emissions by controlling the balance between nitrifier and denitrifier genes. The mechanism is that atmospheric water demand increases with temperature and thereby reduces SM, which increases the dominant N₂ O production nitrifier (containing amoA AOB gene) and decreases the N₂ O consumption denitrifier (containing the nosZ gene), consequently will potential increasing N₂ O emissions. However, we find that the spatial variations of soil-water availability as a result of the nonlinear response of SM to vapor pressure deficit caused by temperature are some of the greatest challenges in predicting future N₂ O emissions. Our data-driven assessment deepens the understanding of the impact of SM-atmosphere interactions on the soil N cycle, which remains uncertain in earth system models. We suggest that the model needs to account for feedback between SM and atmospheric temperature when estimating the response of the N₂ O emissions to climatic change globally, as well as when conducting field-scale investigations of the response of the ecosystem to warming.

Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks

Global warming is expected to cause wet seasons to get wetter and dry seasons to get drier, which would have broad social and ecological implications. However, the extent to which this seasonal paradigm holds over land remains unclear. Here we examine seasonal changes in surface water availability (precipitation minus evaporation, P–E) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections. While the P–E seasonal cycle does broadly intensify over much of the land surface, ~20% of land area experiences a diminished seasonal cycle, mostly over subtropical regions and the Amazon. Using land–atmosphere coupling experiments, we demonstrate that 63% of the seasonality reduction is driven by seasonally varying soil moisture (SM) feedbacks on P–E. Declining SM reduces evapotranspiration and modulates circulation to enhance moisture convergence and increase P–E in the dry season but not in the wet season. Our results underscore the importance of SM–atmosphere feedbacks for seasonal water availability changes in a warmer climate.

Here, the authors find increased dry–season and decreased wet–season water availability over subtropical regions and the Amazon. This is caused by seasonally varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks under global warming.

Drought-heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review

Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental and socioeconomic sectors. These threats are of particular importance in low-income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress in the understanding of CDHW patterns in Brazil while providing insights about the impacts on fire occurrence and public health. Evidence is mounting that heatwaves are becoming increasingly linked with droughts in northeastern and southeastern Brazil, the Amazonia, and the Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind CDHW events, such as the soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at a synergy between CDHW events and high fire activity in the country over the last decades, with the most recent example being the catastrophic 2020 fires in the Pantanal. Moreover, we show that HWs were responsible for increasing mortality and preterm births during record-breaking droughts in southeastern Brazil. This work paves the way for a more in-depth understanding on CDHW events and their impacts, which is crucial to enhance the adaptive capacity of different Brazilian sectors.

Drought legacies and ecosystem responses to subsequent drought

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts. These events, which can cause significant perturbations of terrestrial ecosystems and potentially long-term impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning after the drought has subsided are often called 'drought legacies'. While the immediate effects of drought on ecosystems have been comparatively well characterized, our broader understanding of drought legacies is just emerging. Drought legacies can relate to all aspects of ecosystem structure and functioning, involving changes at the species and the community scale as well as alterations of soil properties. This has consequences for ecosystem responses to subsequent drought. Here, we synthesize current knowledge on drought legacies and the underlying mechanisms. We highlight the relevance of legacy duration to different ecosystem processes using examples of carbon cycling and community composition. We present hypotheses characterizing how intrinsic (i.e. biotic and abiotic properties and processes) and extrinsic (i.e. drought timing, severity, and frequency) factors could alter resilience trajectories under scenarios of recurrent drought events. We propose ways for improving our understanding of drought legacies and their implications for subsequent drought events, needed to assess the longer-term consequences of droughts on ecosystem structure and functioning.

Exceptional heat and atmospheric dryness amplified losses of primary production during the 2020 U.S. Southwest hot drought

Earth's ecosystems are increasingly threatened by "hot drought," which occurs when hot air temperatures coincide with precipitation deficits, intensifying the hydrological, physiological, and ecological effects of drought by enhancing evaporative losses of soil moisture (SM) and increasing plant stress due to higher vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Drought-induced reductions in gross primary production (GPP) exert a major influence on the terrestrial carbon sink, but the extent to which hotter and atmospherically drier conditions will amplify the effects of precipitation deficits on Earth's carbon cycle remains largely unknown. During summer and autumn 2020, the U.S. Southwest experienced one of the most intense hot droughts on record, with record-low precipitation and record-high air temperature and VPD across the region. Here, we use this natural experiment to evaluate the effects of hot drought on GPP and further decompose those negative GPP anomalies into their constituent meteorological and hydrological drivers. We found a 122 Tg C (>25%) reduction in GPP below the 2015-2019 mean, by far the lowest regional GPP over the Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite record. Roughly half of the estimated GPP loss was attributable to low SM (likely a combination of record-low precipitation and warming-enhanced evaporative depletion), but record-breaking VPD amplified the reduction of GPP, contributing roughly 40% of the GPP anomaly. Both air temperature and VPD are very likely to continue increasing over the next century, likely leading to more frequent and intense hot droughts and substantially enhancing drought-induced GPP reductions.

The role of nutritional impairment in carbon-water balance of silver fir drought-induced dieback

Rear-edge populations at the xeric distribution limit of tree species are particularly vulnerable to forest dieback triggered by drought. This is the case of silver fir (Abies alba) forests located in Southwestern Europe. While silver fir drought-induced dieback patterns have been previously explored, information on the role played by nutritional impairment is lacking despite its potential interactions with tree carbon-water balances. We performed a comparative analysis of radial growth, intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), oxygen isotopes (δ¹⁸ O) and nutrient concentrations in leaves of declining (DD) and non-declining (ND) trees in silver fir in four forests in the Spanish Pyrenees. We also evaluated the relationships among dieback predisposition, intraspecific trait variation (wood density and leaf traits) and rhizosphere soil physical-chemical properties. The onset of growth decline in DD trees occurred more than two decades ago, and they subsequently showed low growth resilience against droughts. The DD trees presented consistently lower foliar concentrations of nutrients such as P, K, Cu and Ni than ND trees. The strong effects of foliar nutrient status on growth resilience indices support the key role played by mineral nutrition in tree functioning and growth before, during and after drought. In contrast, variability in wood density and leaf morphological traits, as well as soil properties, showed weak relationships with tree nutritional status and drought performance. At the low elevation, warmer sites, DD trees showed stronger climate-growth relationships and lower δ¹⁸ O than ND trees. The uncoupling between iWUE and δ¹⁸ O, together with the positive correlations between P and K leaf concentrations and δ¹⁸ O, point to deeper soil/bedrock water sources and vertical decoupling between nutrient and water uptake in DD trees. This study provides novel insights into the mechanisms driving silver fir dieback and highlights the need to incorporate tree nutrition into forest dieback studies.

Exploring complex water stress-gross primary production relationships: Impact of climatic drivers, main effects, and interactive effects

The dominance of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil water content (SWC) for plant water stress is still under debate. These two variables are strongly coupled and influenced by climatic drivers. The impacts of climatic drivers on the relationships between gross primary production (GPP) and water stress from VPD/SWC and the interaction between VPD and SWC are not fully understood. Here, applying statistical methods and extreme gradient boosting models-Shapley additive explanations framework to eddy-covariance observations from the global FLUXNET2015 data set, we found that the VPD-GPP relationship was strongly influenced by climatic interactions and that VPD was more important for plant water stress than SWC across most plant functional types when we removed the effect of main climatic drivers, e.g. air temperature, incoming shortwave radiation and wind speed. However, we found no evidence for a significant influence of elevated CO₂ on stress alleviation, possibly because of the short duration of the records (approximately one decade). Additionally, the interactive effect between VPD and SWC differed from their individual effect. When SWC was high, the SHAP interaction value of SWC and VPD on GPP was decreased with increasing VPD, but when SWC was low, the trend was the opposite. Additionally, we revealed a threshold effect for VPD stress on GPP loss; above the threshold value, the stress on GPP was flattened off. Our results have important implications for independently identifying VPD and SWC limitations on plant productivity, which is meaningful for capturing the magnitude of ecosystem responses to water stress in dynamic global vegetation models.