Low but significant evolutionary potential for growth, phenology and reproduction traits in European beech

Local survival of forest tree populations under climate change depends on existing genetic variation and their adaptability to changing environments. Responses to selection were studied in European beech (Fagus sylvatica) under field conditions. A total of 1087 adult trees, seeds, 1-year-old seedlings and established multiyear saplings were genotyped with 16 nuSSRs. Adult trees were assessed for phenotypic traits related to growth, phenology and reproduction. Parentage and paternity analyses were used to estimate effective female and male fecundity as a proxy of fitness and showed that few parents contributed to successful regeneration. Selection gradients were estimated from the relationship between traits and fecundity, while heritability and evolvability were estimated using mixed models and the breeder's equation. Larger trees bearing more fruit and early male flowering had higher total fecundity, while trees with longer growth season had lower total fecundity (directional selection). Stabilizing selection on spring phenology was found for female fecundity, highlighting the role of late frosts as a selection driver. Selection gradients for other traits varied between measurement years and the offspring cohort used to estimate parental fecundity. Compared to other studies in natural populations, we found low to moderate heritability and evolvability for most traits. Response to selection was higher for growth than for budburst, leaf senescence or reproduction traits, reflecting more consistent selection gradients across years and sex functions, and higher phenotypic variability in the population. Our study provides empirical evidence suggesting that populations of long-lived organisms such as forest trees can adapt locally, even at short-time scales.

Seed predation-induced Allee effects, seed dispersal and masting jointly drive the diversity of seed sources during population expansion

The environmental factors affecting plant reproduction and effective dispersal, in particular biotic interactions, have a strong influence on plant expansion dynamics, but their demographic and genetic consequences remain an understudied body of theory. Here, we use a mathematical model in a one-dimensional space and on a single reproductive period to describe the joint effects of predispersal seed insect predators foraging strategy and plant reproduction strategy (masting) on the spatio-temporal dynamics of seed sources diversity in the colonisation front of expanding plant populations. We show that certain foraging strategies can result in a higher seed predation rate at the colonisation front compared to the core of the population, leading to an Allee effect. This effect promotes the contribution of seed sources from the core to the colonisation front, with long-distance dispersal further increasing this contribution. As a consequence, our study reveals a novel impact of the predispersal seed predation-induced Allee effect, which mitigates the erosion of diversity in expanding populations. We use rearrangement inequalities to show that masting has a buffering role: it mitigates this seed predation-induced Allee effect. This study shows that predispersal seed predation, plant reproductive strategies and seed dispersal patterns can be intermingled drivers of the diversity of seed sources in expanding plant populations, and opens new perspectives concerning the analysis of more complex models such as integro-difference or reaction-diffusion equations.

Environmental implication of geochemical record in the Arctic Ny-Ålesund glacial sediment, Svalbard (Norway)

Glacial sediments as an important end member of the global dust system, could indicate changes in global climate, aerosols sources, ocean elements, and productivity. With global warming, ice caps shrinking and glaciers retreat at high latitudes have attracted concern. To understand the response of glacier to environment and climate in modern high latitude ice-marginal environments, this paper investigated glacial sediments in the Ny-Ålesund region of the Arctic and clarified the response of polar environmental to global changes through geochemical characteristics of glacial sediments. The results showed that: 1) main factors affecting the elements distribution of the Ny-Ålesund glacial sediments were thought as soil formation, bedrock and weathering, and biological activity; 2) variations of SiO₂/Al₂O₃ and SiO₂/Al₂O₃ + Fe₂O₃, indicating low weathering of the soil. The ratio of Na₂O/K₂O indicating a weak chemical weathering, was negatively correlated to the CIA. With the average CIA of Ny-Ålesund glacial sediments for main minerals of quartz, feldspar, and muscovite as well as dolomite and calcite 50.13, which implied glacial sediments at the early stage of chemical weathering and depletion of Ca and Na; 3) the separating effect of stones and soils by stone circle formation due to thermal conductivity and frost heave makes sediments in stone circle have lower chemical weathering with only two main minerals, albite and quartz; 4) changes of carbonate content in sediments with glacier front retreating in different period implied that weathering rate of calcite averagely reached an estimate of 0.0792%wt/year in glacier A. The succession of vegetation made biological weathering become an important driving force for carbonate leaching from glacial sediments. These results and data provide scientifically significant archive for future global change studies.

The genetic structure and demographic history of Zabelia tyaihyonii, endemic to Korean limestone karst forests, based on genome-wide SNP markers

Similar to the global phenomenon, many plant species endemic to Korean limestone karst forests are at risk of extinction due to human intervention. Zabelia tyaihyonii is a familiar shrub, called "Hardy abelia" and "Fragrant abelia" growing in the karst forests of Korea, where it is one of the most threatened species. We investigated the genetic structure and demographic history of Z. tyaihyonii, which allow us to develop appropriate conservation and management strategies. The genetic structure was evaluated using a total of 187 samples from 14 populations, covering the entire distribution of Z. tyaihyonii in South Korea. We utilized 254 and 1753 SNP loci obtained via MIG-seq (Multiplexed ISSR Genotyping by sequencing) for structure and demographic analyses, respectively. The population demographic modeling was performed with site frequency spectrum. To gain further historical insights, we also employed ENM (Ecological Niche Modeling). We found two distinct clusters (CLI and CLII) of ancient origin (ca. 490 ka). Despite CLII experiencing a more severe bottleneck, both clusters showed similar levels of genetic diversity, indicating mutual historical gene flow. Their historical distribution range seems to have changed very little. We proposed a historical distribution scenario for Z. tyaihyonii, taking into account its intrinsic factors, and emphasized a more complex response to Quaternary climate change beyond simple allopatric speciation models. These findings provide valuable insights for conservation and management strategies for Z. tyaihyonii.

Possible northern persistence of Siebold's beech, Fagus crenata, at its northernmost distribution limit on an island in Japan Sea: Okushiri Island, Hokkaido

Siebold's beech, Fagus crenata, is widely distributed across the Japanese Archipelago and islands in Japan Sea. Similar to the northern limit of the geographical distribution of F. crenata on the mainland of Hokkaido, the northern limit of the distribution of F. crenata on islands in the Japan Sea is observed on Okushiri Island (ca 42°N). To understand the genetic relationships of F. crenata on Okushiri Island, we examined chloroplast (cp) DNA haplotypes and 11 nuclear microsatellite (SSR) loci among 1,838 individuals from 44 populations from Okushiri Island, mainland Hokkaido, and the northern part of the Tohoku region on Honshu Island. We identified 2 cpDNA haplotypes, which represent not only populations on the Japan Sea coast but also those on the Pacific coast and this suggested the Okushiri Island populations might not be formed by single colonization. Genetic diversity of the Okushiri Island populations of nuclear SSR was not lower than the mainland and the STRUCTURE analysis revealed the Okushiri Island individuals were admixed between Hokkaido and Tohoku clusters. Approximate Bayesian computation inferred that divergence between Tohoku and Hokkaido, and admixture between two populations which generated Okushiri populations occurred before the last glacial maximum (LGM), that is, 7,890 (95% hyper probability density (HPD): 3,420 - 9,910) and 3,870 (95% HPD: 431- 8,540) generations ago, respectively. These inferences were well supported by a geological history which suggested an isolation of Okushiri Island from Hokkaido started prior to the Middle Pleistocene. We discuss the possible persistence of F. crenata during the last glacial maximum on northern islands in the Japan Sea such as Okushiri Island.

Population structure in Quercus suber L. revealed by nuclear microsatellite markers

Quercus suber L. is a sclerophyllous tree species native to the western Mediterranean, a region that is considered highly vulnerable to increased temperatures and severe dry conditions due to environmental changes. Understanding the population structure and demographics of Q. suber is essential in order to anticipate whether populations at greater risk and the species as a whole have the genetic background and reproductive dynamics to enable rapid adaptation. The genetic diversity of Q. suber has been subject to different studies using both chloroplast and nuclear data, but population structure patterns remain unclear. Here, we perform genetic analyses on Q. suber using 13 nuclear microsatellite markers, and analysed 17 distinct locations across the entire range of the species. Structure analyses revealed that Q. suber may contain three major genetic clusters that likely result from isolation in refugia combined with posterior admixture and putative introgression from other Quercus species. Our results show a more complex structure scenario than previously inferred for Q. suber using nuclear markers and suggest that different southern populations contain high levels of genetic variation that may contribute to the resilience of Q. suber in a context of environmental change and adaptive pressure.

Genetic variation of the relict maple Acer miyabei: uncovering its history of disjunct occurrence and the role of mountain refugia in shaping genetic diversity

PREMISE

Relict species provide valuable insights into the origin and formation of extant vegetation. Here, we aimed to elucidate the genetic structure and diversity of a riparian relic, Acer miyabei, in Japan. Once widely distributed, it now occurs in three isolated regions. The most northern regional group is located at low elevation on Hokkaido Island, whereas the southernmost group in central Honshu Island is at high elevation in a mountainous landscape. This contrastive distribution enables us to examine the effects of climate oscillations on genetic diversity in relation to topographic variation.

METHODS

We collected 604 individuals of A. miyabei from 43 sites. Their genetic structure and diversity were analyzed using 12 microsatellite markers and cpDNA sequences.

RESULTS

According to structure analyses, ∆K was lowest at K = 2; the clustering essentially separated many of the individuals in the most northern regional group from the others. In contrast, the two southern groups were not clearly differentiated from each other, despite their geographic discontinuity. The proportion of private alleles was high in populations from the mountain terrain in the southern group although the number of extant populations is limited.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic clustering of A. miyabei is not perfectly congruent with the current patterns of geographic distribution. We infer that disjunction of the two southern groups occurred more recently than that between these groups and the northern group. The mountainous landscape in the most southern region likely provided multiple refugia and contributed to the retention of distinctive genetic variation.

Evolutionary history of two rare endemic conifer species from the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Understanding the population genetics and evolutionary history of endangered species is urgently needed in an era of accelerated biodiversity loss. This knowledge is most important for regions with high endemism that are ecologically vulnerable, such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP).

METHODS

The genetic variation of 84 juniper trees from six populations of Juniperus microsperma and one population of Juniperus erectopatens, two narrow-endemic junipers from the QTP that are sister to each other, was surveyed using RNA-sequencing data. Coalescent-based analyses were used to test speciation, migration and demographic scenarios. Furthermore, positively selected and climate-associated genes were identified, and the genetic load was assessed for both species.

KEY RESULTS

Analyses of 149 052 single nucleotide polymorphisms showed that the two species are well differentiated and monophyletic. They diverged around the late Pliocene, but interspecific gene flow continued until the Last Glacial Maximum. Demographic reconstruction by Stairway Plot detected two severe bottlenecks for J. microsperma but only one for J. erectopatens. The identified positively selected genes and climate-associated genes revealed habitat adaptation of the two species. Furthermore, although J. microsperma had a much wider geographical distribution than J. erectopatens, the former possesses lower genetic diversity and a higher genetic load than the latter.

CONCLUSIONS

This study sheds light on the evolution of two endemic juniper species from the QTP and their responses to Quaternary climate fluctuations. Our findings emphasize the importance of speciation and demographic history reconstructions in understanding the current distribution pattern and genetic diversity of threatened species in mountainous regions.

Fine-scale spatial genetic structure across the species range reflects recent colonization of high elevation habitats in silver fir (Abies alba Mill.)

Variation in genetic diversity across species ranges has long been recognized as highly informative for assessing populations’ resilience and adaptive potential. The spatial distribution of genetic diversity within populations, referred to as fine‐scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS), also carries information about recent demographic changes, yet it has rarely been connected to range scale processes. We studied eight silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) population pairs (sites), growing at high and low elevations, representative of the main genetic lineages of the species. A total of 1,368 adult trees and 540 seedlings were genotyped using 137 and 116 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), respectively. Sites revealed a clear east‐west isolation‐by‐distance pattern consistent with the post‐glacial colonization history of the species. Genetic differentiation among sites (F_CT = 0.148) was an order of magnitude greater than between elevations within sites (F_SC = 0.031), nevertheless high elevation populations consistently exhibited a stronger FSGS. Structural equation modelling revealed that elevation and, to a lesser extent, post‐glacial colonization history, but not climatic and habitat variables, were the best predictors of FSGS across populations. These results suggest that high elevation habitats have been colonized more recently across the species range. Additionally, paternity analysis revealed a high reproductive skew among adults and a stronger FSGS in seedlings than in adults, suggesting that FSGS may conserve the signature of demographic changes for several generations. Our results emphasize that spatial patterns of genetic diversity within populations provide information about demographic history complementary to non‐spatial statistics, and could be used for genetic diversity monitoring, especially in forest trees.

Rear-edge, low-diversity, and haplotypic uniformity in cold-adapted Bupleurum euphorbioides interglacial refugia populations

The high genetic diversity of rear-edge refugia populations is predicted to have resulted from species repeatedly migrating to low latitudes during glacial periods over the course of Quaternary climate change. However, several recent empirical studies of cold-tolerant plants revealed the opposite pattern. We investigated whether current habitats of the cold-adapted and range-restricted Bupleurum euphorbioides in the Baekdudaegan, South Korea, and North Korea could be interglacial refugia, and documented how their rear-edge populations differ genetically from those of typical temperate species. Phylogeographic analysis and ecological niche modeling (ENM) were used. The genetic structure was analyzed using microsatellite markers and chloroplast DNA sequences. The congener B. longiradiatum was included as a typical temperate plant species. Despite having almost identical life history traits, these congeneric species exhibited contrasting patterns of genetic diversity. ENM revealed an apparent maximum range contraction during the last interglacial. In contrast, its range expanded northward to the Russian Far East (Primorsky) during the Last Glacial Maximum. Thus, we hypothesize that B. euphorbioides retreated to its current refugia during interglacial periods. Unlike populations in the central region, the rear-edge populations were genetically impoverished and uniform, both within populations and in pooled regional populations. The rear-edge B. euphorbioides survived at least one past interglacial, contributing to the species' genetic diversity. We believe that such genetic variation in the cold-adapted B. euphorbioides gives the species the necessary adaptations to survive an upcoming favorable environment (the next glacial), unless there is artificial environmental change.

Genetic Diversity and Demographic History of an Upper Hill Dipterocarp (Shorea platyclados): Implications for Conservation

Southeast Asian rainforests at upper hill elevations are increasingly vulnerable to degradation because most lowland forest areas have been converted to different land uses. As such, understanding the genetics of upper hill species is becoming more crucial for their future management and conservation. Shorea platyclados is an important, widespread upper hill dipterocarp in Malaysia. To elucidate the genetic structure of S. platyclados and ultimately provide guidelines for a conservation strategy for this species, we carried out a comprehensive study of the genetic diversity and demographic history of S. platyclados. Twenty-seven populations of S. platyclados across its range in Malaysia were genotyped at 15 polymorphic microsatellite loci and sequenced at seven noncoding chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) regions. A total of 303 alleles were derived from the microsatellite loci, and 29 haplotypes were identified based on 2892 bp of concatenated cpDNA sequences. The populations showed moderately high genetic diversity (mean HE = 0.680 for microsatellite gene diversity and HT = 0.650 for total haplotype diversity) and low genetic differentiation (FST = 0.060). Bayesian clustering divided the studied populations into two groups corresponding to western and eastern Malaysia. Bottleneck analysis did not detect any recent bottleneck events. Extended Bayesian skyline analyses showed a model of constant size for the past population history of this species. Based on our findings, priority areas for in situ and ex situ conservation and a minimum population size are recommended for the sustainable utilization of S. platyclados.

Which oak provenances for the 22nd century in Western Europe? Dendroclimatology in common gardens

The current distribution area of the two sympatric oaks Quercus petraea and Q. robur covers most of temperate Western Europe. Depending on their geographic location, populations of these trees are exposed to different climate constraints, to which they are adapted. Comparing the performances of trees from contrasting populations provides the insight into their expected resilience to future climate change required for forest management. In this study, the descendants of 24 Q. petraea and two Q. robur provenances selected from sites throughout Europe were grown for 20 years in three common gardens with contrasting climates. The 2420 sampled trees allowed the assessments of the relationship between radial growth and climate. An analysis of 15-year chronologies of ring widths, with different combinations of climate variables, revealed different response patterns between provenances and between common gardens. As expected, provenances originating from sites with wet summers displayed the strongest responses to summer drought, particularly in the driest common garden. All provenances displayed positive significant relationships between the temperature of the previous winter and radial growth when grown in the common garden experiencing the mildest winter temperatures. Only eastern provenances from continental cold climates also clearly expressed this limitation of growth by cold winter temperatures in the other two common gardens. However, ecological distance, calculated on the basis of differences in climate between the site of origin and the common garden, was not clearly related to the radial growth responses of the provenances. This suggests that the gradient of genetic variability among the selected provenances was not strictly structured according to climate gradients. Based on these results, we provide guidelines for forest managers for the assisted migration of Quercus petraea and Q. robur provenances.

Predicting the dynamic distribution of Sphagnum bogs in China under climate change since the last interglacial period

Sphagnum bogs possess irreplaceable ecological and economic value, and they are scarce in China, with a fragmented distribution. Based on 19 high-resolution bioclimatic environmental datasets and 71 bog center point locations, we employed a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to reconstruct and predict the spatial-temporal geographical distribution patterns of Sphagnum bogs from the last interglacial (LIG) period to two typical CO₂ representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5) in the future. We further computed the migratory paths of the distribution center points. Finally, a jackknife test was used to uncover the crucial environmental factors restricting the geographical distribution of the bogs. Our data indicated that the MaxEnt niche model had a high simulation precision with an area under the ROC curve value of 0.957. Spatially, the suitable bog habitats are currently centralized in northeastern China, including the Greater Khingan Mountains, the Lesser Khingan Mountains, and the Changbai Mountains, as well as peripheral areas of the Sichuan Basin. Temporally, the contours of Sphagnum bogs were similar to the present and rendered from the last glacial maximum (LMG) period, and had much more total area than the current. The total area in LIG was nearly the same as the current because of the similar climate. It was worth noting that there would be a reduction of the total area in the future. Loss of area occurred at the edges of bogs, especially under RCP8.5. The distribution center of bogs will shift to the northwest in the immediate future. The precipitation of driest month, the mean temperature of warmest quarter and the precipitation of warmest quarter were identified as crucial climatic factors affecting the distribution of Sphagnum bogs. Overall, our research provides scientific evidence for the long-term protection and effective management of these rare, precious natural resources and suggestions for in situ conservation.

Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree

Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th-century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st-century climate change constitutes a new-but so far unevaluated-threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high-resolution topography and fine-scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso- and microclimate scales. We show that climate-only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th-century destruction is evident-more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation-and 21st-century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.

Tracking microhabitat temperature variation with iButton data loggers

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Fine-scale variation in temperature and soil moisture contribute to microhabitats across the landscape, affecting plant phenology, distribution, and fitness. The recent availability of compact and inexpensive temperature and humidity data loggers such as iButtons has facilitated research on microclimates.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Here, we highlight the use of iButtons in three distinct settings: comparisons of empirical data to modeled climate data for rare rock ferns in the genus Asplenium in eastern North America; generation of fine-scale data to predict flowering time and vernalization responsiveness of crop wild relatives of chickpea from southeastern Anatolia; and measurements of extreme thermal variation of solar array installations in Vermont.

DISCUSSION

We highlight a range of challenges with iButtons, including serious limitations of the Hygrochron function that affect their utility for measuring soil moisture, and methods for protecting them from the elements and from human interference. Finally, we provide MATLAB code to facilitate the processing of raw iButton data.

Stronger influence of anthropogenic disturbance than climate change on century-scale compositional changes in northern forests

Predicting future ecosystem dynamics depends critically on an improved understanding of how disturbances and climate change have driven long-term ecological changes in the past. Here we assembled a dataset of >100,000 tree species lists from the 19th century across a broad region (>130,000km²) in temperate eastern Canada, as well as recent forest inventories, to test the effects of changes in anthropogenic disturbance, temperature and moisture on forest dynamics. We evaluate changes in forest composition using four indices quantifying the affinities of co-occurring tree species with temperature, drought, light and disturbance. Land-use driven shifts favouring more disturbance-adapted tree species are far stronger than any effects ascribable to climate change, although the responses of species to disturbance are correlated with their expected responses to climate change. As such, anthropogenic and natural disturbances are expected to have large direct effects on forests and also indirect effects via altered responses to future climate change.

Separating anthropogenic and climatic impacts on forest compositions can be challenging due to a lack of data. Here the authors look at forest compositional changes in eastern Canada since the 19th century and find land use has most strongly shaped communities towards disturbance-adapted species.

Genomic effects of population collapse in a critically endangered ironwood tree Ostrya rehderiana

Increased human activity and climate change are driving numerous tree species to endangered status, and in the worst cases extinction. Here we examine the genomic signatures of the critically endangered ironwood tree Ostrya rehderiana and its widespread congener O. chinensis. Both species have similar demographic histories prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM); however, the effective population size of O. rehderiana continued to decrease through the last 10,000 years, whereas O. chinensis recovered to Pre-LGM numbers. O. rehderiana accumulated more deleterious mutations, but purged more severely deleterious recessive variations than in O. chinensis. This purging and the gradually reduced inbreeding depression together may have mitigated extinction and contributed to the possible future survival of the outcrossing O. rehderiana. Our findings provide critical insights into the evolutionary history of population collapse and the potential for future recovery of the endangered trees.

Invoking adaptation to decipher the genetic legacy of past climate change

Persistence of natural populations during periods of climate change is likely to depend on migration (range shifts) or adaptation. These responses were traditionally considered discrete processes and conceptually divided into the realms of ecology and evolution. In a milestone paper, Davis and Shaw (2001) Science 292:673 argued that the interplay of adaptation and migration was central to biotic responses to Quaternary climate, but since then there has been no synthesis of efforts made to set up this research program. Here we review some of the salient findings from molecular genetic studies assessing ecological and evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate change. These studies have revolutionized our understanding of population processes associated with past species migration. However, knowledge remains limited about the role of natural selection for local adaptation of populations to Quaternary environmental fluctuations and associated range shifts, and for the footprints this might have left on extant populations. Next-generation sequencing technologies, high-resolution paleoclimate analyses, and advances in population genetic theory offer an unprecedented opportunity to test hypotheses about adaptation through time. Recent population genomics studies have greatly improved our understanding of the role of contemporary adaptation to local environments in shaping spatial patterns of genetic diversity across modern-day landscapes. Advances in this burgeoning field provide important conceptual and methodological bases to decipher the historical role of natural selection and assess adaptation to past environmental variation. We suggest that a process called "temporal conditional neutrality" has taken place: some alleles favored in glacial environments become selectively neutral in modern-day conditions, whereas some alleles that had been neutral during glacial periods become under selection in modern environments. Building on this view, we present a new integrative framework for addressing the interplay of demographic and adaptive evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate dynamics, the research agenda initially envisioned by Davis and Shaw (2001) Science 292:673.

Aridification as a driver of biodiversity: a case study for the cycad genus Dioon (Zamiaceae)

Background and Aims

Aridification is considered a selective pressure that might have influenced plant diversification. It is suggested that plants adapted to aridity diversified during the Miocene, an epoch of global aridification (≈15 million years ago). However, evidence supporting diversification being a direct response to aridity is scarce, and multidisciplinary evidence, besides just phylogenetic estimations, is necessary to support the idea that aridification has driven diversification. The cycad genus Dioon (Zamiaceae), a tropical group including species occurring from humid forests to arid zones, was investigated as a promising study system to understand the associations among habitat shifts, diversification times, the evolution of leaf epidermal adaptations, and aridification of Mexico.

Methods

A phylogenetic tree was constructed from seven chloroplast DNA sequences and the ITS2 spacer to reveal the relationships among 14 Dioon species from habitats ranging from humid forests to deserts. Divergence times were estimated and the habitat shifts throughout Dioon phylogeny were detected. The epidermal anatomy among Dioon species was compared and correlation tests were performed to associate the epidermal variations with habitat parameters.

Key Results

Events of habitat shifts towards arid zones happened exclusively in one of the two main clades of Dioon. Such habitat shifts happened during the species diversification of Dioon, mainly during the Miocene. Comparative anatomy showed epidermal differences between species from arid and mesic habitats. The variation of epidermal structures was found to be correlated with habitat parameters. Also, most of the analysed epidermal traits showed significant phylogenetic signals.

Conclusions

The diversification of Dioon has been driven by the aridification of Mexico. The Miocene timing corresponds to the expansion of arid zones that embedded the ancestral Dioon populations. As response, species in arid zones evolved epidermal traits to counteract aridity stress. This case study provides a robust body of evidence supporting the idea that aridification is an important driver of biodiversity.

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

BACKGROUND

The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future.

METHODS

In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time.

RESULTS

Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas.

DISCUSSION

In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

Too early and too northerly: evidence of temperate trees in northern Central Europe during the Younger Dryas

This paper presents highly unexpected paleobotanical data. Eight (14) C-accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dates of soil macrocharcoal pieces, identified taxonomically, indicate the presence of oak and beech in the Younger Dryas, and pine in the Allerød, in the northernmost low mountain range of Central Europe, the Harz Mountains, in Germany. If the presence of pine at such latitude and periods is not surprising, the presence of temperate-adapted trees is highly improbable, because they are assumed to have reached the area from a southern location several thousand years later. Two hypotheses are postulated to explain this record. Both are related to the warm periods of the Bølling and Allerød: the classically 'short' duration of this warm period makes the migration of the temperate trees from the identified refuge areas in the southern location implausible, and so the presence of intermediary microrefugia at a medium latitude in Central Europe is postulated; recent data reveal that the warm period of the Late Glacial phase was much longer than considered in the classical view and, thus, would be long enough for a northward migration of temperate-adapted trees. Although our dataset does not permit disentanglement of these hypotheses, it provides significant innovative insights for the biogeography of Central Europe.

Phylogeographic pattern of range expansion provides evidence for cryptic species lineages in Silene nutans in Western Europe

As a result of recent or past evolutionary processes, a single species might consist of distinct Evolutionary Significant Units (ESUs), even corresponding to cryptic species. Determining the underlying mechanisms of range shifts and the processes at work in the build-up of divergent ESUs requires elucidating the factors that contribute to population genetic divergence across a species' range. We investigated the large-scale patterns of genetic structure in the perennial herbaceous plant species Silene nutans (Caryophyllaceae) in Western Europe. We sampled and genotyped 111 populations using 13 nuclear microsatellite loci and 6 plastid single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Broad-scale spatial population genetic structure was examined using Bayesian clustering, spatial multivariate analyses and measures of hierarchical genetic differentiation. The genotypic structure of S. nutans was typical of a predominantly allogamous mating system. We also identified plastid lineages with no intra-population polymorphism, mirroring two genetically differentiated nuclear lineages. No evidence of admixture was found. Spatial trends in genetic diversity further suggested independent leading-edge expansion associated with founding events and subsequent genetic erosion. Overall, our findings suggested speciation processes in S. nutans and highlighted striking patterns of distinct stepwise recolonisation of Western Europe shaped by Quaternary climate oscillations. Two main potential ESUs can be defined in Western Europe, corresponding to Eastern and Western nuclear-plastid lineages. In situ preservation of populations and genetic rescue implying ex situ conservation techniques should take the lineage identity into account. This is particularly true in Great Britain, northern France and Belgium, where S. nutans is rare and where distinct lineages co-occur in close contact.

How do cold-sensitive species endure ice ages? Phylogeographic and paleodistribution models of postglacial range expansion of the mesothermic drought-tolerant conifer Austrocedrus chilensis

In view of global climate change, it is important to understand the responses of tree species to climate changes in the past. Combinations of phylogeographic analysis of genetic evidence, coupled with species distribution models (SDMs), are improving our understanding on this subject. We combined SDMs and microsatellite data from populations of the entire range of Austrocedrus chilensis, a dominant mesotherm (cold-sensitive) conifer of dryland forests of the southern Andes, to test the hypothesis of long-distance postglacial migration from northern and warmer refugia at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The SDM indicated suitable conditions for Austrocedrus in northern Chile (western) at the LGM and largely unsuitable conditions in Argentina (eastern). Population genetic diversity and effective population sizes within populations decreased southward along the Andes, consistent with the hypothesis of long-distance dispersal from a northern refugium. Results support the hypothesis of one (or a few) warmer (low latitude) refugia in Chile for Austrocedrus. On balance, the evidence suggests that in contrast to cold-tolerant tree taxa with the capacity to fast-track postglacial warming thanks to local refugia, cold-sensitive species might have undergone long-distance range expansion, lagging behind progressive climate change throughout the Holocene.

Phylogeographic structure of cotton pest Adelphocoris suturalis (Hemiptera: Miridae): strong subdivision in China inferred from mtDNA and rDNA ITS markers

Phylogeographic patterns of some extant plant and vertebrate species have been well studied; however, they are poorly understood in the majority of insects. The study documents analysis of mitochondrial (COI, CYTB and ND5) and nuclear (5.8S rDNA, ITS2 and 28S rDNA) data from 419 individuals of Adelphocoris suturalis, which is one of the main cotton pests found in the 31 locations in China and Japan involved in the study. Results show that the species is highly differentiated between populations from central China and peripheral China regions. Analysis of molecular variance showed a high level of geographical differentiation at different hierarchical levels. Isolation-by-distance test showed no significant correlation between genetic distance and geographical distance among A. suturalis populations, which suggested gene flow is not restricted by distance. In seven peripheral populations, the high levels of genetic differentiation and the small N_em values implied that geographic barriers were more likely restrict gene flow. Neutrality tests and the Bayesian skyline plot suggested population expansion likely happened during the cooling transition between Last Interglacial and Last Glacial Maximum. All lines of evidence suggest that physical barriers, Pleistocene climatic oscillations and geographical heterogeneity have affected the population structure and distribution of this insect in China.

Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe

Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate.

Contrasting patterns of genetic diversity across the ranges of Pinus monticola and P. strobus: a comparison between eastern and western North American postglacial colonization histories

• Premises of the study: Understanding the influence of recent glacial and postglacial periods on species' distributions is key for predicting the effects of future environmental changes. We investigated the influence of two physiographic landscapes on population structure and postglacial colonization of two white pine species of contrasting habitats: P. monticola, which occurs in the highly mountainous region of western North America, and P. strobus, which occurs in a much less mountainous area in eastern North America.•

METHODS

To characterize the patterns of genetic diversity and population structure across the ranges of both species, 158 and 153 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers derived from expressed genes were genotyped on range-wide samples of 61 P. monticola and 133 P. strobus populations, respectively.•

KEY RESULTS

In P. monticola, a steep latitudinal decrease in genetic diversity likely resulted from postglacial colonization involving rare long-distance dispersal (LDD) events. In contrast, no geographic patterns of diversity were detected in P. strobus, suggesting recolonization via a gradually advancing front or frequent LDD events. For each species, structure analyses identified two distinct southern and northern genetic groups that likely originated from two different glacial lineages. At a finer scale, and for the two species, smaller subgroups were detected that could be remnants of cryptic refugia.•

CONCLUSION

During postglacial colonization, the western and eastern North American landscapes had different impacts on genetic signatures in P. monticola compared with P. strobus. We discuss the importance of our findings for conservation programs and predictions of species' response to climate change.

Pleistocene glaciations, demographic expansion and subsequent isolation promoted morphological heterogeneity: A phylogeographic study of the alpine Rosa sericea complex (Rosaceae)

While most temperate plants probably underwent glacial constriction to refugia and interglacial expansion, another type of interglacial refugia might have existed to maintain alpine plants during warm periods. To test this hypothesis, we applied phylogeographic methods to 763 individuals (62 populations) which belong to 7 taxonomically difficult species of the Rosa sericea complex distributed in alpine regions of the temperate and subtropical zones in eastern Asia. We used three chloroplast (cp) DNA fragments (trnL-trnF, ndhF-rpl32 and ndhJ-trnF) approximately 3,100 bp and nuclear microsatellite (nSSR) on eight sites to determine whether cold tolerant plants experienced expansion during the Pleistocene. The neutral test and mismatch distribution analysis (MDA) indicated that whole populations and major lineages of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) underwent expansion during the middle to late Pleistocene. Environmental niche modeling (ENM) indicates more suitable habitats during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than at present. We concluded that the demographic history of R. sericea, which diverged in the middle Pleistocene, was mostly affected by climatic oscillations instead of by geographical barriers. The low genetic divergence, as well as the weak phylogenetic structure in the R. sericea complex both support treating this complex as a single taxon.

Historical distribution of Sundaland's Dipterocarp rainforests at Quaternary glacial maxima

The extent of Dipterocarp rainforests on the emergent Sundaland landmass in Southeast Asia during Quaternary glaciations remains a key question. A better understanding of the biogeographic history of Sundaland could help explain current patterns of biodiversity and support the development of effective forest conservation strategies. Dipterocarpaceae trees dominate the rainforests of Sundaland, and their distributions serve as a proxy for rainforest extent. We used species distribution models (SDMs) of 317 Dipterocarp species to estimate the geographic extent of appropriate climatic conditions for rainforest on Sundaland at the last glacial maximum (LGM). The SDMs suggest that the climate of central Sundaland at the LGM was suitable to sustain Dipterocarp rainforest, and that the presence of a previously suggested transequatorial savannah corridor at that time is unlikely. Our findings are supported by palynologic evidence, dynamic vegetation models, extant mammal and termite communities, vascular plant fatty acid stable isotopic compositions, and stable carbon isotopic compositions of cave guano profiles. Although Dipterocarp species richness was generally lower at the LGM, areas of high species richness were mostly found off the current islands and on the emergent Sunda Shelf, indicating substantial species migration and mixing during the transitions between the Quaternary glacial maxima and warm periods such as the present.

Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial-interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia - fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys - in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

Environment-dependent microevolution in a Mediterranean pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton)

Background

A central question for understanding the evolutionary responses of plant species to rapidly changing environments is the assessment of their potential for short-term (in one or a few generations) genetic change. In our study, we consider the case of Pinus pinaster Aiton (maritime pine), a widespread Mediterranean tree, and (i) test, under different experimental conditions (growth chamber and semi-natural), whether higher recruitment in the wild from the most successful mothers is due to better performance of their offspring; and (ii) evaluate genetic change in quantitative traits across generations at two different life stages (mature trees and seedlings) that are known to be under strong selection pressure in forest trees.

Results

Genetic control was high for most traits (h² = 0.137-0.876) under the milder conditions of the growth chamber, but only for ontogenetic change (0.276), total height (0.415) and survival (0.719) under the more stressful semi-natural conditions. Significant phenotypic selection gradients were found in mature trees for traits related to seed quality (germination rate and number of empty seeds). Moreover, female relative reproductive success was significantly correlated with offspring performance for specific leaf area (SLA) in the growth chamber experiment, and stem mass fraction (SMF) in the experiment under semi-natural conditions, two adaptive traits related to abiotic stress-response in pines. Selection gradients based on genetic covariance of seedling traits and responses to selection at this stage involved traits related to biomass allocation (SMF) and growth (as decomposed by a Gompertz model) or delayed ontogenetic change, depending also on the testing environment.

Conclusions

Despite the evidence of microevolutionary change in adaptive traits in maritime pine, directional or disruptive changes are difficult to predict due to variable selection at different life stages and environments. At mature-tree stages, higher female effective reproductive success can be explained by differences in their production of offspring (due to seed quality) and, to a lesser extent, by seemingly better adapted seedlings. Selection gradients and responses to selection for seedlings also differed across experimental conditions. The distinct processes involved at the two life stages (mature trees or seedlings) together with environment-specific responses advice caution when predicting likely evolutionary responses to environmental change in Mediterranean forest trees.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-014-0200-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Exome resequencing reveals signatures of demographic and adaptive processes across the genome and range of black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa)

Extant variation in temperate and boreal plant species has been influenced by both demographic histories associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles and adaptation to local climate. We used sequence capture to investigate the role of these neutral and adaptive processes in shaping diversity in black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa). Nucleotide diversity and Tajima's D were lowest at replacement sites and highest at intergenic sites, while LD showed the opposite pattern. With samples grouped into three populations arrayed latitudinally, effective population size was highest in the north, followed by south and centre, and LD was highest in the south followed by the north and centre, suggesting a possible northern glacial refuge. FST outlier analysis revealed that promoter, 5'-UTR and intronic sites were enriched for outliers compared with coding regions, while no outliers were found among intergenic sites. Codon usage bias was evident, and genes with synonymous outliers had 30% higher average expression compared with genes containing replacement outliers. These results suggest divergent selection related to regulation of gene expression is important to local adaptation in P. trichocarpa. Finally, within-population selective sweeps were much more pronounced in the central population than in putative northern and southern refugia, which may reflect the different demographic histories of the populations and concomitant effects on signatures of genetic hitchhiking from standing variation.

Molecular data and ecological niche modeling reveal population dynamics of widespread shrub Forsythia suspensa (Oleaceae) in China's warm-temperate zone in response to climate change during the Pleistocene

Background

Despite its high number of endemic deciduous broad-leaved species in China’s warm-temperate zone, far less attention has been paid to phylogeographic studies in this region. In this work, the phylogeographic history of Forsythia suspensa endemic to China’s warm-temperate zone was investigated to explore the effect of climate change during the Pleistocene on the distribution of this deciduous broad-leaved species in China.

Results

The cpDNA data revealed seven phylogeographical groups corresponding to geographical regions. By contrast, the nrDNA data supported the samples clustered into three groups, which was inconsistent with separate geographical regions supported by cpDNA data. Ecological niche modeling showed that the climatically suitable area during the cold period was larger than that during the warm period.

Conclusions

Both molecular data and ecological niche modeling indicated that F. suspensa expanded to nearby low-elevation plains in the glacial periods, and retreated to mountaintops during interglacial warmer stages. This study thus supported that F. suspensa persisted in situ during the glacial of the Pleistocene with enlarged distribution area, contrary to the hypothesis of long distance southward migration or large-scale range contraction.

From myopia to clarity: sharpening the focus of ecosystem management through the lens of palaeoecology

Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services in a changing environment requires a temporal perspective that informs realistic restoration and management targets. Such targets need to be dynamic, adaptive, and responsive to changing boundary conditions. However, the application of long-term data from palaeoecology is often hindered as the management and policy implications are not made explicit, and because data sets are often not accessible or amenable to stakeholders. Focussing on this translation gap, we explore how a palaeoecological perspective can change the focus of biodiversity management and conservation policy. We embed a long-term perspective (decades to millennia) into current adaptive management and policy frameworks, with the aim of encouraging better integration between palaeoecology, conservation management, and mainstreaming viable provision of ecosystem services.

Disturbance and climatic effects on red spruce community dynamics at its southern continuous range margin

Red spruce (Picea rubens) populations experienced a synchronous rangewide decline in growth and vigor starting in the 1960s, likely caused by climate change and a combination of environmental disturbances. However, it is not yet known if populations continue to decline or have recovered. Red spruce growing near its southern range margin in Massachusetts is a species of concern, in light of the vulnerability to climate change. This study uses population data from 17 permanent plots coupled with tree-ring data to examine radial growth rates, determine the growth-climate relationship, and document disturbance events. Red spruce at these plots ranged from 90 to 184 years old, and comprised 15 to 29 m²/ha basal area. Red spruce seedlings and saplings were common at plots with previously high overstory spruce abundance, indicating it could return to a more dominant position under favorable growing conditions. However, permanent plot measures over a 50 year time span did not indicate any consistent trends for changes in basal area or density for red spruce or other woody species. Climate data show that mean annual minimum, maximum, and summer temperatures have increased over the last 100 years. Dendroclimatological analyses indicated that red spruce growth was sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. Prior to the 1960s, spruce at these sites showed a positive response to precipitation; however after a multi-year drought in the 1960s showed an increasingly negative correlation with precipitation. There has been a negative growth response to regional warming, as spruce radial growth was mostly constrained by increasing temperatures, potentially coupled with the associated increasing drought-dress. I suggest the change in climate response is potentially due to a physiological threshold response to increasing temperatures, which may cause spruce to continue to decline or be lost from the lower elevation sites, while the high elevation sites has a persistent spruce population.

The influence of contemporary and historic landscape features on the genetic structure of the sand dune endemic, Cirsium pitcheri (Asteraceae)

Narrow endemics are at risk from climate change because of their restricted habitat preferences, lower colonization ability and dispersal distances. Landscape genetics combines new tools and analyses that allow us to test how both past and present landscape features have facilitated or hindered previous range expansion and local migration patterns, and thereby identifying potential limitations to future range shifts. We have compared current and historic habitat corridors in Cirsium pitcheri, an endemic of the linear dune ecosystem of the Great Lakes, to determine the relative contributions of contemporary migration and post-glacial range expansion on genetic structure. We used seven microsatellite loci to characterize the genetic structure for 24 populations of Cirsium pitcheri, spanning the center to periphery of the range. We tested genetic distance against different measures of geographic distance and landscape permeability, based on contemporary and historic landscape features. We found moderate genetic structure (Fst=0.14), and a north-south pattern to the distribution of genetic diversity and inbreeding, with northern populations having the highest diversity and lowest levels of inbreeding. High allelic diversity, small average pairwise distances and mixed genetic clusters identified in Structure suggest that populations in the center of the range represent the point of entry to the Lake Michigan and a refugium of diversity for this species. A strong association between genetic distances and lake-level changes suggests that historic lake fluctuations best explain the broad geographic patterns, and sandy habitat best explains local patterns of movement.

Environmental versus geographical determinants of genetic structure in two subalpine conifers

Alpine ecosystems are facing rapid human-induced environmental changes, and so more knowledge about tree adaptive potential is needed. This study investigated the relative role of isolation by distance (IBD) versus isolation by adaptation (IBA) in explaining population genetic structure in Abies alba and Larix decidua, based on 231 and 233 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) sampled across 36 and 22 natural populations, respectively, in the Alps and Apennines. Genetic structure was investigated for both geographical and environmental groups, using analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA). For each species, nine environmental groups were defined using climate variables selected from a multiple factor analysis. Complementary methods were applied to identify outliers based on these groups, and to test for IBD versus IBA. AMOVA showed weak but significant genetic structure for both species, with higher values in L. decidua. Among the potential outliers detected, up to two loci were found for geographical groups and up to seven for environmental groups. A stronger effect of IBD than IBA was found in both species; nevertheless, once spatial effects had been removed, temperature and soil in A. alba, and precipitation in both species, were relevant factors explaining genetic structure. Based on our findings, in the Alpine region, genetic structure seems to be affected by both geographical isolation and environmental gradients, creating opportunities for local adaptation.

Field evidence of colonisation by Holm Oak, at the northern margin of its distribution range, during the Anthropocene period

A major unknown in the context of current climate change is the extent to which populations of slowly migrating species, such as trees, will track shifting climates. Niche modelling generally predicts substantial northward shifts of suitable habitats. There is therefore an urgent need for field-based forest observations to corroborate these extensive model simulations. We used forest inventory data providing presence/absence information from just over a century (1880-2010) for a Mediterranean species (Quercus ilex) in forests located at the northern edge of its distribution. The main goals of the study were (i) to investigate whether this species has actually spread into new areas during the Anthropocene period and (ii) to provide a direct estimation of tree migration rate. We show that Q. ilex has colonised substantial new areas over the last century. However, the maximum rate of colonisation by this species (22 to 57 m/year) was much slower than predicted by the models and necessary to follow changes in habitat suitability since 1880. Our results suggest that the rates of tree dispersion and establishment may also be too low to track shifts in bioclimatic envelopes in the future. The inclusion of contemporary, rather than historical, migration rates into models should improve our understanding of the response of species to climate change.