HIV epidemiology. The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations

The distinct spatiotemporal evolutionary landscape of HBV and HDV largely determines the unique epidemic features of HDV globally

Chronic infection of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis D virus (HDV) causes the most severe form of viral hepatitis. Due to the dependence on HBV, HDV was deemed to co-evolve and co-migrate with HBV. However, we previously found that the naturally occurred HDV/HBV combinations do not always reflect the most efficient virological adaptation (Wang et al., 2021). Moreover, regions with heavy HBV burden do not always correlate with high HDV prevalence (e.g., East Asia), and vice versa (e.g., Central Asia). Herein, we systematically elucidated the spatiotemporal evolutionary landscape of HDV to understand the unique epidemic features of HDV. We found that the MRCA of HDV was from South America around the late 13th century, was globally dispersed mainly via Central Asia, and evolved into eight genotypes from the 19th to 20th century. In contrast, the MRCA of HBV was from Europe ∼23.7 thousand years ago (Kya), globally dispersed mainly via Africa and East Asia, and evolved into eight genotypes ∼1100 years ago. When HDV stepped in, all present-day HBV genotypes had already formed and its global genotypic distribution had stayed stable geographically. Nevertheless, regionalized HDV adapted to local HBV genotypes and human lineages, contributing to the global geographical separation of HDV genotypes. Additionally, a sharp increase in HDV infections was observed after the 20th century. In conclusion, HDV exhibited a distinct spatiotemporal distribution path compared with HBV. This unique evolutionary relationship largely fostered the unique epidemic features we observe nowadays. Moreover, HDV infections may continue to ramp up globally, thus more efforts are urgently needed to combat this disease.

Performance evaluation of the new Access HIV Ag/Ab combo assay on the DxI 9000 Access Immunoassay Analyzer

Fourth-generation HIV immunoassays have been developed to reduce the window period of detection during seroconversion period, allowing for the detection of early and established infections. The aim of this work was to evaluate a newly developed assay, Access HIV Ag/Ab combo on the novel high throughput DxI 9000 Access Immunoassay Analyzer (Beckman Coulter, Inc.). The assay allows for simultaneous qualitative detection and differentiation of HIV-1 p24 antigen and HIV-1/2 antibodies. Assay performance was compared to two gold standard assays, the Abbott Architect HIV Ag/Ab Combo and Roche Elecsys HIV Duo, and assessed in a multicenter study, using a wide panel of samples (n > 9000, clinical samples and viral lysates) representative of genetic diversity for both antibodies and antigens, early phases of infection, negative, and cross-reacting samples. The clinical sensitivity was 100 % for clinical samples as well as for viral lysates. Data on viral lysates and early detection on seroconversion panels showed a better result with the Access assay. Analytical sensitivity showed a limit of p24 detection determined around 0.2 IU/mL. The overall specificity was 99.91 %, and no interference was found using the potentially cross-reactive samples. In conclusion, the Access HIV Ag/Ab combo assay demonstrated its ability for accurate diagnosis of chronic as well as primary HIV infections on the DxI 9000 Analyzer, despite the high level of genetic diversity of these viruses.

Identification of a novel first-generation HIV-1 circulating recombinant form (CRF152_DG) among people living with HIV in Karachi, Pakistan

The objective of this study was to characterize a novel circulating recombinant form of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) among people living with HIV in Karachi, Pakistan. We conducted near-full-length genome (NFLG) sequencing on eight samples exhibiting D/G recombination signals in the pol gene region. We successfully obtained NFLG sequences (790-9,614; with reference to the HXB2 genome) from four of the eight samples and then conducted phylogenetic and recombination analyses on them. The four NFLG sequences from our study and one DG unique recombinant form previously identified in the United Kingdom (GenBank accession: MF109700) formed a distinct monophyletic cluster with an Shimodaira-Hasegawa approximate likelihood ratio test node support value of 100%. Bootscan analyses of the five NFLG sequences of DG recombinants showed that all five NFLGs shared the same unique mosaic pattern of recombination breakpoints between D and G clades, with two D fragments in the pol and vif regions inserted into a G backbone. Subregion phylogenetic analyses confirmed these sequences to be a novel circulating recombinant form (CRF) composed of subtypes D and G. The DG recombinant sequences were eventually designated as CRF152_DG by the Los Alamos HIV Sequence Database staff.

IMPORTANCE

In Pakistan, the genetic diversity of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is becoming increasingly complex, compared to the early years of the epidemic that started after the detection of the first cases of HIV-1 in 1987 in Karachi. Based on the available molecular studies, two dominant HIV-1 clades, sub-subtype A1 and CRF02_AG, have been found to co-circulate with other clades, namely B, C, D, G, CRF01_AE, CRF35_A1D, and CRF56_cpx, in various urban areas of Pakistan. Several novel recombinant forms have also been detected. This first report of CRF152_DG highlights the complex nature of the HIV epidemic in Pakistan and emphasizes the importance of continual molecular surveillance (ideally based on whole-genome sequences) of HIV.

Patient communication protocols for sexually transmitted infections: A systematic review

AIMS

We conducted a systematic review of post-test communication protocols and observational studies regarding counseling for a positive sexually transmitted infection (STI) result and also discuss the role of dental specialist (e.g., oral medicine) in this sense.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The search process followed the parameters of PRISMA 2020 guidelines. MEDLINE/PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, EMBASE, and LILACS were consulted with a specific search strategy for each one. Additionally, the references of the included studies, grey literature, and experts were consulted. Four protocols and 18 observational studies were included in this systematic review, published between 1997 and 2022 in the Americas and Europe. The communication protocols emphasized the importance of conducting personal and private discussions with patients to address their fears and questions. Among the observational studies, 56% indicated that post-test counseling was either ineffective or absent. Furthermore, 22% of the studies used telephone communication to deliver results to patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that the communication process of a positive STI result affects the patients in several aspects, as treatment adherence and their relationship with the community. Nevertheless, this process of STI post-test communication seems to be flawed, which brings potential negative effects to patients.

Impact of subtype C-specific amino acid variants on HIV-1 Tat-TAR interaction: insights from molecular modelling and dynamics

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 produces Tat, a crucial protein for transcription, viral replication, and CNS neurotoxicity. Tat interacts with TAR, enhancing HIV reverse transcription. Subtype C Tat variants (C31S, R57S, Q63E) are associated with reduced transactivation and neurovirulence compared to subtype B. However, their precise impact on Tat-TAR binding is unclear. This study investigates how these substitutions affect Tat-TAR interaction.

METHODS

We utilized molecular modelling techniques, including MODELLER, to produce precise three-dimensional structures of HIV-1 Tat protein variants. We utilized Tat subtype B as the reference or wild type, and generated Tat variants to mirror those amino acid variants found in Tat subtype C. Subtype C-specific amino acid substitutions were selected based on their role in the neuropathogenesis of HIV-1. Subsequently, we conducted molecular docking of each Tat protein variant to TAR using HDOCK, followed by molecular dynamic simulations.

RESULTS

Molecular docking results indicated that Tat subtype B (TatWt) showed the highest affinity for the TAR element (-262.07), followed by TatC31S (-261.61), TatQ63E (-256.43), TatC31S/R57S/Q63E (-238.92), and TatR57S (-222.24). However, binding free energy analysis showed higher affinities for single variants TatQ63E (-349.2 ± 10.4 kcal/mol) and TatR57S (-290.0 ± 9.6 kcal/mol) compared to TatWt (-247.9 ± 27.7 kcal/mol), while TatC31S and TatC31S/R57SQ/63E showed lower values. Interactions over the protein trajectory were also higher for TatQ63E and TatR57S compared to TatWt, TatC31S, and TatC31S/R57SQ/63E, suggesting that modifying amino acids within the Arginine/Glutamine-rich region notably affects TAR interaction. Single amino acid mutations TatR57S and TatQ63E had a significant impact, while TatC31S had minimal effect. Introducing single amino acid variants from TatWt to a more representative Tat subtype C (TatC31S/R57SQ/63E) resulted in lower predicted binding affinity, consistent with previous findings.

CONCLUSIONS

These identified amino acid positions likely contribute significantly to Tat-TAR interaction and the differential pathogenesis and neuropathogenesis observed between subtype B and subtype C. Additional experimental investigations should prioritize exploring the influence of these amino acid signatures on TAR binding to gain a comprehensive understanding of their impact on viral transactivation, potentially identifying them as therapeutic targets.

No detectable differences in Nef-mediated downregulation of HLA-I and CD4 molecules among HIV-1 group M lineages circulating in Cameroon, where the pandemic originated

HIV-1 group M (HIV-1M) lineages downregulate HLA-I and CD4 expression via their Nef proteins. We hypothesized that these Nef functions may be partially responsible for the differences in prevalence of viruses from different lineages that co-circulate within an epidemic. Here, we characterized these two Nef activities in HIV-1M isolates from Cameroon, where multiple variants have been circulating since the pandemic's origin. Single HIV-1 Nef clones from 234 HIV-1-ART naïve individuals living in remote villages and two cosmopolitan cities of Cameroon, sampled between 2000 and 2013, were isolated from plasma HIV RNA and analyzed for their capacity to downregulate HLA-I and CD4 molecules. We found that, despite a large degree of within- and inter- lineage variation, the ability of Nef to downregulate HLA-I was similar across these different viruses. Moreover, Nef-mediated CD4 downregulation activity was also well conserved across the different lineages found in Cameroon. In addition, we observed a trend towards higher HLA-I downregulation activity of viruses circulating in the cosmopolitan cities versus the remote villages, whereas the CD4 downregulation activities were similar across the two settings. Furthermore, we noted a significant decline of HLA-I downregulation activity from 2000 to 2013, providing additional evidence supporting the attenuation of the global HIV-1M population over time. Finally, we identified 18 amino acids associated with differential HLA-I downregulation and 13 amino acids associated with differential CD4 downregulation within the dominant CRF02_AG lineage. Our lack of observation of HIV lineage-related differences in Nef-mediated HLA-I and CD4 downregulation function suggests that these activities do not substantively influence the prevalence of different HIV-1M lineages in Cameroon.

HIV co-infection is associated with reduced Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmissibility in sub-Saharan Africa

Persons living with HIV are known to be at increased risk of developing tuberculosis (TB) disease upon infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). However, it has remained unclear how HIV co-infection affects subsequent Mtb transmission from these patients. Here, we customized a Bayesian phylodynamic framework to estimate the effects of HIV co-infection on the Mtb transmission dynamics from sequence data. We applied our model to four Mtb genomic datasets collected in sub-Saharan African countries with a generalized HIV epidemic. Our results confirm that HIV co-infection is a strong risk factor for developing active TB. Additionally, we demonstrate that HIV co-infection is associated with a reduced effective reproductive number for TB. Stratifying the population by CD4+ T-cell count yielded similar results, suggesting that, in this context, CD4+ T-cell count is not a better predictor of Mtb transmissibility than HIV infection status alone. Together, our genome-based analyses complement observational household contact studies, and more firmly establish the negative association between HIV co-infection and Mtb transmissibility.

The Phenomenon of Antiretroviral Drug Resistance in the Context of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Treatment: Dynamic and Ever Evolving Subject Matter

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a significant global health issue that affects a substantial number of individuals across the globe, with a total of 39 million individuals living with HIV/AIDS. ART has resulted in a reduction in HIV-related mortality. Nevertheless, the issue of medication resistance is a significant obstacle in the management of HIV/AIDS. The unique genetic composition of HIV enables it to undergo rapid mutations and adapt, leading to the emergence of drug-resistant forms. The development of drug resistance can be attributed to various circumstances, including noncompliance with treatment regimens, insufficient dosage, interactions between drugs, viral mutations, preexposure prophylactics, and transmission from mother to child. It is therefore essential to comprehend the molecular components of HIV and the mechanisms of antiretroviral medications to devise efficacious treatment options for HIV/AIDS.

MASCOT-Skyline integrates population and migration dynamics to enhance phylogeographic reconstructions

The spread of infectious diseases is shaped by spatial and temporal aspects, such as host population structure or changes in the transmission rate or number of infected individuals over time. These spatiotemporal dynamics are imprinted in the genome of pathogens and can be recovered from those genomes using phylodynamics methods. However, phylodynamic methods typically quantify either the temporal or spatial transmission dynamics, which leads to unclear biases, as one can potentially not be inferred without the other. Here, we address this challenge by introducing a structured coalescent skyline approach, MASCOT-Skyline that allows us to jointly infer spatial and temporal transmission dynamics of infectious diseases using Markov chain Monte Carlo inference. To do so, we model the effective population size dynamics in different locations using a non-parametric function, allowing us to approximate a range of population size dynamics. We show, using a range of different viral outbreak datasets, potential issues with phylogeographic methods. We then use these viral datasets to motivate simulations of outbreaks that illuminate the nature of biases present in the different phylogeographic methods. We show that spatial and temporal dynamics should be modeled jointly even if one seeks to recover just one of the two. Further, we showcase conditions under which we can expect phylogeographic analyses to be biased, particularly different subsampling approaches, as well as provide recommendations of when we can expect them to perform well. We implemented MASCOT-Skyline as part of the open-source software package MASCOT for the Bayesian phylodynamics platform BEAST2.

Holistic One Health Surveillance Framework: Synergizing Environmental, Animal, and Human Determinants for Enhanced Infectious Disease Management

Recent pandemics, including the COVID-19 outbreak, have brought up growing concerns about transmission of zoonotic diseases from animals to humans. This highlights the requirement for a novel approach to discern and address the escalating health threats. The One Health paradigm has been developed as a responsive strategy to confront forthcoming outbreaks through early warning, highlighting the interconnectedness of humans, animals, and their environment. The system employs several innovative methods such as the use of advanced technology, global collaboration, and data-driven decision-making to come up with an extraordinary solution for improving worldwide disease responses. This Review deliberates environmental, animal, and human factors that influence disease risk, analyzes the challenges and advantages inherent in using the One Health surveillance system, and demonstrates how these can be empowered by Big Data and Artificial Intelligence. The Holistic One Health Surveillance Framework presented herein holds the potential to revolutionize our capacity to monitor, understand, and mitigate the impact of infectious diseases on global populations.

Structural Features and Genetic Diversity in Gag Gene of Rare HIV-1 Subtypes from the Democratic Republic of Congo

Type-1 HIV (HIV-1) group M (HIV-1M) genetic diversity is highest in the Congo Basin where the epidemic ignited a century ago. HIV-1M has diversified into multiple subtypes, sub-subtypes, and circulating and unique recombinant forms (CRFs/URFs). An unanswered question is why some rare subtypes never reached epidemic levels despite their age. Several studies identified the role of HIV-1M accessory genes nef and vpu in virus adaptation to human hosts and subsequent spread. Other reports also pointed out the pivotal role of gag in transmissibility, virulence, and replication capacity. In this study we characterized the HIV-1 gag gene of 148 samples collected in different localities of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) between 1997 and 2013. We used nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to amplify the whole gag gene. PCR products were sequenced either by Sanger method or by next generation sequencing on Illumina MiSeq or iSeq100 platforms. Generated sequences were used for subsequent analyses using different bioinformatic tools. Phylogenetic analysis of the generated sequences revealed a high genetic diversity with up to 22 different subtypes, sub-subtypes, CRFs. Up to 15% (22/148) URFs were identified, in addition to rare subtypes such as H, J, and K. At least two amino acid motifs present in the gag gene have been shown to modulate HIV-1 replication, budding, and fitness: the P(T/S)AP and the LYPXnL motifs. Structural analysis revealed the presence of P(T/S)AP in all the 148 sequences with the majority (136/148) bearing the PTAP. Three samples presented a duplication of this motif. The LYPXnL motif was identified in 38 of 148 sequences. There was no clear link between the frequency of these motifs and HIV-1M subtypes. In summary, we confirmed a high genetic diversity of HIV-1M in the DRC. We observed the presence of amino acid motifs important for viral replication and budding even in some rare HIV-1 subtypes. Their impact on viral fitness needs be further evaluated by in vitro studies.

Synchrony of Bird Migration with Global Dispersal of Avian Influenza Reveals Exposed Bird Orders

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A H5, particularly clade 2.3.4.4, has caused worldwide outbreaks in domestic poultry, occasional spillover to humans, and increasing deaths of diverse species of wild birds since 2014. Wild bird migration is currently acknowledged as an important ecological process contributing to the global dispersal of HPAIV H5. However, this mechanism has not been quantified using bird movement data from different species, and the timing and location of exposure of different species is unclear. We sought to explore these questions through phylodynamic analyses based on empirical data of bird movement tracking and virus genome sequences of clade 2.3.4.4 and 2.3.2.1. First, we demonstrate that seasonal bird migration can explain salient features of the global dispersal of clade 2.3.4.4. Second, we detect synchrony between the seasonality of bird annual cycle phases and virus lineage movements. We reveal the differing exposed bird orders at geographical origins and destinations of HPAIV H5 clade 2.3.4.4 lineage movements, including relatively under-discussed orders. Our study provides a phylodynamic framework that links the bird movement ecology and genomic epidemiology of avian influenza; it highlights the importance of integrating bird behavior and life history in avian influenza studies.

Demographics of sources of HIV-1 transmission in Zambia: a molecular epidemiology analysis in the HPTN 071 PopART study

BACKGROUND

In the last decade, universally available antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to greatly improved health and survival of people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, but new infections continue to appear. The design of effective prevention strategies requires the demographic characterisation of individuals acting as sources of infection, which is the aim of this study.

METHODS

Between 2014 and 2018, the HPTN 071 PopART study was conducted to quantify the public health benefits of ART. Viral samples from 7124 study participants in Zambia were deep-sequenced as part of HPTN 071-02 PopART Phylogenetics, an ancillary study. We used these sequences to identify likely transmission pairs. After demographic weighting of the recipients in these pairs to match the overall HIV-positive population, we analysed the demographic characteristics of the sources to better understand transmission in the general population.

FINDINGS

We identified a total of 300 likely transmission pairs. 178 (59·4%) were male to female, with 130 (95% CI 110-150; 43·3%) from males aged 25-40 years. Overall, men transmitted 2·09-fold (2·06-2·29) more infections per capita than women, a ratio peaking at 5·87 (2·78-15·8) in the 35-39 years source age group. 40 (26-57; 13·2%) transmissions linked individuals from different communities in the trial. Of 288 sources with recorded information on drug resistance mutations, 52 (38-69; 18·1%) carried viruses resistant to first-line ART.

INTERPRETATION

HIV-1 transmission in the HPTN 071 study communities comes from a wide range of age and sex groups, and there is no outsized contribution to new infections from importation or drug resistance mutations. Men aged 25-39 years, underserved by current treatment and prevention services, should be prioritised for HIV testing and ART.

FUNDING

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and National Institute of Mental Health.

From Glycolysis to Viral Defense: The Multifaceted Impact of Glycolytic Enzymes on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Replication

Viruses require host cells to replicate and proliferate, which indicates that viruses hijack the cellular machinery. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) primarily infects CD4-positive T cells, and efficiently uses cellular proteins to replicate. Cells already have proteins that inhibit the replication of the foreign HIV-1, but their function is suppressed by viral proteins. Intriguingly, HIV-1 infection also changes the cellular metabolism to aerobic glycolysis. This phenomenon has been interpreted as a cellular response to maintain homeostasis during viral infection, yet HIV-1 efficiently replicates even in this environment. In this review, we discuss the regulatory role of glycolytic enzymes in viral replication and the impact of aerobic glycolysis on viral infection by introducing various host proteins involved in viral replication. Furthermore, we would like to propose a "glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase-induced shock (G-shock) and kill strategy" that maximizes the antiviral effect of the glycolytic enzyme glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH) to eliminate latently HIV-1-infected cells.

Human movement and transmission dynamics early in Ebola outbreaks

Human movement drives the transmission and spread of communicable pathogens. It is especially influential for emerging pathogens when population immunity is low and spillover events are rare. We digitized serial printed maps to measure transportation networks (roads and rivers) in Central and West Africa as proxies for population mobility to assess relationships between movement and Ebola transmission. We find that the lengths of roads and rivers in close proximity to spillover sites at or near the time of spillover events are significantly correlated with the number of EVD cases, particularly in the first 100 days of each outbreak. Early management and containment efforts along transportation networks may be beneficial in mitigation during the early days of transmission and spatial spread for Ebola outbreaks.

Rural populations facilitated early SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission in Missouri, USA

In the United States, rural populations comprise 60 million individuals and suffered from high COVID-19 disease burdens. Despite this, surveillance efforts are biased toward urban centers. Consequently, how rurally circulating SARS-CoV-2 viruses contribute toward emerging variants remains poorly understood. In this study, we aim to investigate the role of rural communities in the evolution and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the early pandemic. We collected 544 urban and 435 rural COVID-19-positive respiratory specimens from an overall vaccine-naïve population in Southwest Missouri between July and December 2020. Genomic analyses revealed 53 SARS-CoV-2 Pango lineages in our study samples, with 14 of these lineages identified only in rural samples. Phylodynamic analyses showed that frequent bi-directional diffusions occurred between rural and urban communities in Southwest Missouri, and that four out of seven Missouri rural-origin lineages spread globally. Further analyses revealed that the nucleocapsid protein (N):R203K/G204R paired substitutions, which were detected disproportionately across multiple Pango lineages, were more associated with urban than rural sequences. Positive selection was detected at N:204 among rural samples but was not evident in urban samples, suggesting that viruses may encounter distinct selection pressures in rural versus urban communities. This study demonstrates that rural communities may be a crucial source of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission, highlighting the need to expand surveillance and resources to rural populations for COVID-19 mitigation.

Optimizing ancestral trait reconstruction of large HIV Subtype C datasets through multiple-trait subsampling

Large datasets along with sampling bias represent a challenge for phylodynamic reconstructions, particularly when the study data are obtained from various heterogeneous sources and/or through convenience sampling. In this study, we evaluate the presence of unbalanced sampled distribution by collection date, location, and risk group of human immunodeficiency virus Type 1 Subtype C using a comprehensive subsampling strategy and assess their impact on the reconstruction of the viral spatial and risk group dynamics using phylogenetic comparative methods. Our study shows that a most suitable dataset for ancestral trait reconstruction can be obtained through subsampling by all available traits, particularly using multigene datasets. We also demonstrate that sampling bias is inflated when considerable information for a given trait is unavailable or of poor quality, as we observed for the trait risk group. In conclusion, we suggest that, even if traits are not well recorded, including them deliberately optimizes the representativeness of the original dataset rather than completely excluding them. Therefore, we advise the inclusion of as many traits as possible with the aid of subsampling approaches in order to optimize the dataset for phylodynamic analysis while reducing the computational burden. This will benefit research communities investigating the evolutionary and spatio-temporal patterns of infectious diseases.

HIV-1 subtype diversity and immuno-virological outcomes among adolescents failing antiretroviral therapy in Cameroon: A cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We sought to evaluate the variability of HIV-1 and its effect on immuno-virological response among adolescents living with perinatally acquired HIV (APHI).

METHODS

A cohort study was conducted from 2018-2020 among 311 APHI receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Cameroon. Sequencing of protease and reverse transcriptase regions was performed for participants experiencing virological failure, VF, (Plasma viral load, PVL ≥ 1000 RNA copies/ml). HIV-1 subtypes were inferred by phylogeny; immuno-virological responses were monitored at 3-time points (T1-T3). Cox regression modeling was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of progression to: CD4 < 250, and PVL > 5log10, adjusted for acquired drug resistance, gender, ART line, adherence, and duration on treatment; p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Of the 141 participants in VF enrolled, the male-female ratio was 1:1; mean age was 15 (±3) years; and median [IQR] duration on ART was 51 [46-60] months. In all phases, 17 viral clades were found with a predominant CRF02_AG (58.2%, 59.4%, and 58.3%). From T1-T3 respectively, there was an increasing CD4 count (213 [154-313], 366 [309-469], and 438 [364-569] cells/mm3) and decline log10 PVL (5.23, 4.43, and 4.43), similar across subtypes. Among participants with CRF02_AG infection, duration of treatment was significantly associated with both rates of progression to CD4 < 250, and PVL > 5log10, aHR = 0.02 (0.001-0.52), and aHR = 0.05 (0.01-0.47) respectively. Moreover, four potential new HIV-1 recombinants were identified (CRF02_AG/02D, CRF02_AG/02A1F2, D/CRF02_AG, and AF2/CRF02_AG), indicating a wide viral diversity.

CONCLUSION

Among APHI in settings like Cameroon, there is a wide genetic diversity of HIV-1, driven by CRF02_AG and with potential novel clades due to ongoing recombination events. Duration of treatment significantly reduces the risk of disease progression.

A Glimpse into the Past: What Ancient Viral Genomes Reveal About Human History

Humans have battled viruses for millennia. However, directly linking the symptomatology of disease outbreaks to specific viral pathogens was not possible until the twentieth century. With the advent of the genomic era and the development of advanced protocols for isolation, sequencing, and analysis of ancient nucleic acids from diverse human remains, the identification and characterization of ancient viruses became feasible. Recent studies have provided invaluable information about past epidemics and made it possible to examine assumptions and inferences on the origin and evolution of certain viral families. In parallel, the study of ancient viruses also uncovered their importance in the evolution of the human lineage and their key roles in shaping major events in human history. In this review, we describe the strategies used for the study of ancient viruses, along with their limitations, and provide a detailed account of what past viral infections have revealed about human history.

The role of migration networks in the development of Botswana's generalized HIV epidemic

The majority of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, where epidemics are generalized. For these epidemics to develop, populations need to be mobile. However, the role of population-level mobility in the development of generalized HIV epidemics has not been studied. Here we do so by studying historical migration data from Botswana, which has one of the most severe generalized HIV epidemics worldwide; HIV prevalence was 21% in 2021. The country reported its first AIDS case in 1985 when it began to rapidly urbanize. We hypothesize that, during the development of Botswana's epidemic, the population was extremely mobile and the country was highly connected by substantial migratory flows. We test this mobility hypothesis by conducting a network analysis using a historical time series (1981-2011) of micro-census data from Botswana. Our results support our hypothesis. We found complex migration networks with very high rates of rural-to-urban, and urban-to-rural, migration: 10% of the population moved annually. Mining towns (where AIDS cases were first reported, and risk behavior was high) were important in-flow and out-flow migration hubs, suggesting that they functioned as 'core groups' for HIV transmission and dissemination. Migration networks could have dispersed HIV throughout Botswana and generated the current hyperendemic epidemic.

Population genomics of diarrheagenic Escherichia coli uncovers high connectivity between urban and rural communities in Ecuador

Human movement may be an important driver of transmission dynamics for enteric pathogens but has largely been underappreciated except for international 'travelers' diarrhea or cholera. Phylodynamic methods, which combine genomic and epidemiological data, are used to examine rates and dynamics of disease matching underlying evolutionary history and biogeographic distributions, but these methods often are not applied to enteric bacterial pathogens. We used phylodynamics to explore the phylogeographic and evolutionary patterns of diarrheagenic E. coli in northern Ecuador to investigate the role of human travel in the geographic distribution of strains across the country. Using whole genome sequences of diarrheagenic E. coli isolates, we built a core genome phylogeny, reconstructed discrete ancestral states across urban and rural sites, and estimated migration rates between E. coli populations. We found minimal structuring based on site locations, urban vs. rural locality, pathotype, or clinical status. Ancestral states of phylogenomic nodes and tips were inferred to have 51% urban ancestry and 49% rural ancestry. Lack of structuring by location or pathotype E. coli isolates imply highly connected communities and extensive sharing of genomic characteristics across isolates. Using an approximate structured coalescent model, we estimated rates of migration among circulating isolates were 6.7 times larger for urban towards rural populations compared to rural towards urban populations. This suggests increased inferred migration rates of diarrheagenic E. coli from urban populations towards rural populations. Our results indicate that investments in water and sanitation prevention in urban areas could limit the spread of enteric bacterial pathogens among rural populations.

Enabling structural resilience of street-involved children and youth in Kenya: reintegration outcomes and the Flourishing Community model

Introduction

Millions of children and youth live on city streets across the globe, vulnerable to substance use, abuse, material and structural neglect. Structural resilience, the re-establishment of access to structural goods within a society such as housing, education, and healthcare following some interruption, provides an orientation for research and interventional efforts with street-involved children and youth (SICY). Further, a structural resilience framework supports organizing interactions between levels and sectors of a socio-ecology.

Methods

Following the expressed interests of Kenyan SICY, and consistent with emerging policy interests at national and global levels, we assess reintegration trajectories of Kenyan SICY (n = 227) participating in a new program intervention and model. The intervention combines two coordinated, parallel programs - one focused on the rescue, rehabilitation, reintegration and resocialization of SICY, and the other focused on empowering families and communities to provide better care for children and youth who are reintegrating from life on the streets to the broader community. Data were collected and analyzed from multiple stages across SICY involvement with the intervention.

Results

We found 79% of SICY participants reintegrated with the broader community, and 50% reintegrated with families of origin and returned to school. Twenty-five percent of participants reintegrated to a boarding school, polytechnical school, or began a business. Probability of reintegrating successfully was significantly improved among participants whose families participated in the family- and community-oriented program, who were younger, with less street-exposure, expressed more personal interests, and desired to reintegrate with family.

Discussion

To our knowledge, these are the first quantitative data published of successful reintegration of SICY to the broader, non-institutionalized community in any low- or middle-income country. Future research should (1) identify factors across socio-ecological levels and sectors contributing to health and developmental outcomes of reintegrated children and youth, (2) mechanisms to support SICY for whom the interventional strategy did not work, (3) methods to prevent street-migration by children and youth, and (4) system development to coordinate follow-up and relevant investment by institutions, organizations and community leaders to continue reintegration work.

Towards a post-pandemic future for global pathogen genome sequencing

Pathogen genome sequencing has become a routine part of our response to active outbreaks of infectious disease and should be an important part of our preparations for future epidemics. In this Essay, we discuss the innovations that have enabled routine pathogen genome sequencing, as well as how genome sequences can be used to understand and control the spread of infectious disease. We also explore the impact of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic on the field of pathogen genomics and outline the challenges we must address to further improve the utility of pathogen genome sequencing in the future.

Genomic Detection of the Emerging, Highly Pathogenic HIV-1 Subtype D in Bahia, Northeast Brazil

(1) Background: The HIV subtype D is generally associated with a faster decline in CD4+ T cell counts, a higher viral load, and a faster progression to AIDS. However, it is still poorly characterized in Brazil. In this study, we used genomics and epidemiological data to investigate the transmission dynamics of HIV subtype D in the state of Bahia, Northeast Brazil. (2) Methods: To achieve this goal, we obtained four novel HIV-1 subtype D partial pol genome sequences using the Sanger method. To understand the emergence of this novel subtype in the state of Bahia, we used phylodynamic analysis on a dataset comprising 3704 pol genome sequences downloaded from the Los Alamos database. (3) Results: Our analysis revealed three branching patterns, indicating multiple introductions of the HIV-1 subtype D in Brazil from the late 1980s to the late 2000s and a single introduction event in the state of Bahia. Our data further suggest that these introductions most likely originated from European, Eastern African, Western African, and Southern African countries. (4) Conclusion: Understanding the distribution of HIV-1 viral strains and their temporal dynamics is crucial for monitoring the real-time evolution of circulating subtypes and recombinant forms, as well as for designing novel diagnostic and vaccination strategies. We advocate for a shift to active surveillance, to ensure adequate preparedness for future epidemics mediated by emerging viral strains.

The (Re-)Emergence and Spread of Viral Zoonotic Disease: A Perfect Storm of Human Ingenuity and Stupidity

Diseases that are transmitted from vertebrate animals to humans are referred to as zoonotic diseases. Although microbial agents such as bacteria and parasites are linked to zoonotic events, viruses account for a high percentage of zoonotic diseases that have emerged. Worryingly, the 21st century has seen a drastic increase in the emergence and re-emergence of viral zoonotic disease. Even though humans and animals have coexisted for millennia, anthropogenic factors have severely increased interactions between the two populations, thereby increasing the risk of disease spill-over. While drivers such as climate shifts, land exploitation and wildlife trade can directly affect the (re-)emergence of viral zoonotic disease, globalisation, geopolitics and social perceptions can directly facilitate the spread of these (re-)emerging diseases. This opinion paper discusses the "intelligent" nature of viruses and their exploitation of the anthropogenic factors driving the (re-)emergence and spread of viral zoonotic disease in a modernised and connected world.

The tumour is in the detail: Local phylogenetic, population and epidemiological dynamics of a transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils

Infectious diseases are a major threat for biodiversity conservation and can exert strong influence on wildlife population dynamics. Understanding the mechanisms driving infection rates and epidemic outcomes requires empirical data on the evolutionary trajectory of pathogens and host selective processes. Phylodynamics is a robust framework to understand the interaction of pathogen evolutionary processes with epidemiological dynamics, providing a powerful tool to evaluate disease control strategies. Tasmanian devils have been threatened by a fatal transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), for more than two decades. Here we employ a phylodynamic approach using tumour mitochondrial genomes to assess the role of tumour genetic diversity in epidemiological and population dynamics in a devil population subject to 12 years of intensive monitoring, since the beginning of the epidemic outbreak. DFTD molecular clock estimates of disease introduction mirrored observed estimates in the field, and DFTD genetic diversity was positively correlated with estimates of devil population size. However, prevalence and force of infection were the lowest when devil population size and tumour genetic diversity was the highest. This could be due to either differential virulence or transmissibility in tumour lineages or the development of host defence strategies against infection. Our results support the view that evolutionary processes and epidemiological trade-offs can drive host-pathogen coexistence, even when disease-induced mortality is extremely high. We highlight the importance of integrating pathogen and population evolutionary interactions to better understand long-term epidemic dynamics and evaluating disease control strategies.

Forecasting Pathogen Dynamics with Bayesian Model-Averaging: Application to Xylella fastidiosa

Forecasting invasive-pathogen dynamics is paramount to anticipate eradication and containment strategies. Such predictions can be obtained using a model grounded on partial differential equations (PDE; often exploited to model invasions) and fitted to surveillance data. This framework allows the construction of phenomenological but concise models relying on mechanistic hypotheses and real observations. However, it may lead to models with overly rigid behavior and possible data-model mismatches. Hence, to avoid drawing a forecast grounded on a single PDE-based model that would be prone to errors, we propose to apply Bayesian model averaging (BMA), which allows us to account for both parameter and model uncertainties. Thus, we propose a set of different competing PDE-based models for representing the pathogen dynamics, we use an adaptive multiple importance sampling algorithm (AMIS) to estimate parameters of each competing model from surveillance data in a mechanistic-statistical framework, we evaluate the posterior probabilities of models by comparing different approaches proposed in the literature, and we apply BMA to draw posterior distributions of parameters and a posterior forecast of the pathogen dynamics. This approach is applied to predict the extent of Xylella fastidiosa in South Corsica, France, a phytopathogenic bacterium detected in situ in Europe less than 10 years ago (Italy 2013, France 2015). Separating data into training and validation sets, we show that the BMA forecast outperforms competing forecast approaches.

Genofunc: genome annotation and identification of genome features for automated pipelining analysis of virus whole genome sequences

BACKGROUND

Viral genomics and epidemiology have been increasingly important tools for analysing the spread of key pathogens affecting daily lives of individuals worldwide. With the rapidly expanding scale of pathogen genome sequencing efforts for epidemics and outbreaks efficient workflows in extracting genomic information are becoming increasingly important for answering key research questions.

RESULTS

Here we present Genofunc, a toolkit offering a range of command line orientated functions for processing of raw virus genome sequences into aligned and annotated data ready for analysis. The tool contains functions such as genome annotation, feature extraction etc. for processing of large genomic datasets both manual or as part of pipeline such as Snakemake or Nextflow ready for down-stream phylogenetic analysis. Originally designed for a large-scale HIV sequencing project, Genofunc has been benchmarked against annotated sequence gene coordinates from the Los Alamos HIV database as validation with downstream phylogenetic analysis result comparable to past literature as case study.

CONCLUSION

Genofunc is implemented fully in Python and licensed under the MIT license. Source code and documentation is available at: https://github.com/xiaoyu518/genofunc .

HIV-Host Cell Interactions

The development of antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) was a great milestone in the management of HIV infection. ARVs suppress viral activity in the host cell, thus minimizing injury to the cells and prolonging life. However, an effective treatment has remained elusive for four decades due to the successful immune evasion mechanisms of the virus. A thorough understanding of the molecular interaction of HIV with the host cell is essential in the development of both preventive and curative therapies for HIV infection. This review highlights several inherent mechanisms of HIV that promote its survival and propagation, such as the targeting of CD4⁺ lymphocytes, the downregulation of MHC class I and II, antigenic variation and an envelope complex that minimizes antibody access, and how they collaboratively render the immune system unable to mount an effective response.

When can we reconstruct the ancestral state? Beyond Brownian motion

Reconstructing the ancestral state of a group of species helps answer many important questions in evolutionary biology. Therefore, it is crucial to understand when we can estimate the ancestral state accurately. Previous works provide a necessary and sufficient condition, called the big bang condition, for the existence of an accurate reconstruction method under discrete trait evolution models and the Brownian motion model. In this paper, we extend this result to a wide range of continuous trait evolution models. In particular, we consider a general setting where continuous traits evolve along the tree according to stochastic processes that satisfy some regularity conditions. We verify these conditions for popular continuous trait evolution models including Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, reflected Brownian Motion, bounded Brownian Motion, and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross.

It Was Not the Perfect Storm: The Social History of the HIV-2 Virus in Guinea-Bissau

The perfect storm model that was elaborated for the HIV-1M pandemic has also been used to explain the emergence of HIV-2, a second human immunodeficiency virus-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV-AIDS) that became an epidemic in Guinea-Bissau, West Africa. The use of this model creates epidemiological generalizations, ecological oversimplifications and historical misunderstandings as its assumptions-an urban center with explosive population growth, a high level of commercial sex and a surge in STDs, a network of mechanical transport and country-wide, en masse mobile campaigns-are absent from the historical record. This model fails to explain how the HIV-2 epidemic actually came about. This is the first study to conduct an exhaustive examination of sociohistorical contextual developments and align them with environmental, virological and epidemiological data. The interdisciplinary dialogue indicates that the emergence of the HIV-2 epidemic piggybacked on local sociopolitical transformations. The war's indirect effects on ecological relations, mobility and sociability were acute in rural areas and are a key to the HIV-2 epidemic. This setting had the natural host of the virus, the population numbers, the mobility trends and the use of technology on a scale needed to foster viral adaptation and amplification. The present analysis suggests new reflections on the processes of zoonotic spillovers and disease emergence.

Population mobility and the development of Botswana's generalized HIV epidemic: a network analysis

The majority of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV epidemics are generalized. For these epidemics to develop, populations need to be mobile. However, population-level mobility has not yet been studied in the context of the development of generalized HIV epidemics. Here we do so by studying historical migration data from Botswana which has one of the most severe generalized HIV epidemics worldwide; in 2021, HIV prevalence was 21%. The country reported its first AIDS case in 1985 when it began to rapidly urbanize. We hypothesize that, during the development of Botswana's epidemic, the population was highly mobile and there were substantial urban-to-rural and rural-to-urban migratory flows. We test this hypothesis by conducting a network analysis using a historical time series (1981 to 2011) of micro-census data from Botswana. We found 10% of the population moved their residency annually, complex migration networks connected urban with rural areas, and there were very high rates of rural-to-urban migration. Notably, we also found mining towns were both important in-flow and out-flow migration hubs; consequently, there was a very high turnover of residents in towns. Our results support our hypothesis, and together, provide one explanation for the development of Botswana's generalized epidemic.

Liquid-liquid phase separation of nucleocapsid proteins during SARS-CoV-2 and HIV-1 replication

The leap of retroviruses and coronaviruses from animal hosts to humans has led to two ongoing pandemics and tens of millions of deaths worldwide. Retrovirus and coronavirus nucleocapsid proteins have been studied extensively as potential drug targets due to their central roles in virus replication, among which is their capacity to bind their respective genomic RNAs for packaging into nascent virions. This review focuses on fundamental studies of these nucleocapsid proteins and how their intrinsic abilities to condense through liquid-liquid phase separation (LLPS) contribute to viral replication. Therapeutic targeting of these condensates and methodological advances are also described to address future questions on how phase separation contributes to viral replication.

Emergence and pandemic spread of small ruminant lentiviruses

Small ruminant lentiviruses (SRLVs) cause chronic, persistent infections in populations of domestic sheep (Ovis aries) and goats (Capra hircus) worldwide. The vast majority of SRLV infections involve two genotypes (A and B) that spread in association with the emergence of global livestock trade. However, SRLVs have likely been present in Eurasian ruminant populations since at least the early Neolithic period. Here, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic approaches to reconstruct the origin of pandemic SRLV strains and infer their historical pattern of global spread. We constructed an open computational resource ('Lentivirus-GLUE') via which an up-to-date database of published SRLV sequences, multiple sequence alignments (MSAs), and sequence-associated metadata can be maintained. We used data collated in Lentivirus-GLUE to perform a comprehensive phylogenetic investigation of global SRLV diversity. Phylogenies reconstructed from genome-length alignments reveal that the deep divisions in the SRLV phylogeny are consistent with an ancient split into Eastern (A-like) and Western (B-like) lineages as agricultural systems disseminated out of domestication centres during the Neolithic period. These findings are also consistent with historical and phylogeographic evidence linking the early 20^th century emergence of SRLV-A to the international export of Central Asian Karakul sheep. Investigating the global diversity of SRLVs can help reveal how anthropogenic factors have impacted the ecology and evolution of livestock diseases. The open resources generated in our study can expedite these studies and can also serve more broadly to facilitate the use of genomic data in SRLV diagnostics and research.

Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 in Ghana: Subtype Distribution, Drug Resistance and Coreceptor Usage

The greatest HIV-1 genetic diversity is found in West/Central Africa due to the pandemic’s origins in this region, but this diversity remains understudied. We characterized HIV-1 subtype diversity (from both sub-genomic and full-genome viral sequences), drug resistance and coreceptor usage in 103 predominantly (90%) antiretroviral-naive individuals living with HIV-1 in Ghana. Full-genome HIV-1 subtyping confirmed the circulating recombinant form CRF02_AG as the dominant (53.9%) subtype in the region, with the complex recombinant 06_cpx (4%) present as well. Unique recombinants, most of which were mosaics containing CRF02_AG and/or 06_cpx, made up 37% of sequences, while “pure” subtypes were rare (<6%). Pretreatment resistance to at least one drug class was observed in 17% of the cohort, with NNRTI resistance being the most common (12%) and INSTI resistance being relatively rare (2%). CXCR4-using HIV-1 sequences were identified in 23% of participants. Overall, our findings advance our understanding of HIV-1 molecular epidemiology in Ghana. Extensive HIV-1 genetic diversity in the region appears to be fueling the ongoing creation of novel recombinants, the majority CRF02_AG-containing, in the region. The relatively high prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI resistance but low prevalence of INSTI resistance supports the use of INSTI-based first-line regimens in Ghana.

Habitat connectivity and host relatedness influence virus spread across an urbanising landscape in a fragmentation-sensitive carnivore

Spatially heterogeneous landscape factors such as urbanisation can have substantial effects on the severity and spread of wildlife diseases. However, research linking patterns of pathogen transmission to landscape features remains rare. Using a combination of phylogeographic and machine learning approaches, we tested the influence of landscape and host factors on feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV_Lru) genetic variation and spread among bobcats (Lynx rufus) sampled from coastal southern California. We found evidence for increased rates of FIV_Lru lineage spread through areas of higher vegetation density. Furthermore, single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variation among FIV_Lru sequences was associated with host genetic distances and geographic location, with FIV_Lru genetic discontinuities precisely correlating with known urban barriers to host dispersal. An effect of forest land cover on FIV_Lru SNP variation was likely attributable to host population structure and differences in forest land cover between different populations. Taken together, these results suggest that the spread of FIV_Lru is constrained by large-scale urban barriers to host movement. Although urbanisation at fine spatial scales did not appear to directly influence virus transmission or spread, we found evidence that viruses transmit and spread more quickly through areas containing higher proportions of natural habitat. These multiple lines of evidence demonstrate how urbanisation can change patterns of contact-dependent pathogen transmission and provide insights into how continued urban development may influence the incidence and management of wildlife disease.

Long-Term and Low-Level Envelope C2V3 Stimulation by Highly Diverse Virus Isolates Leads to Frequent Development of Broad and Elite Antibody Neutralization in HIV-1-Infected Individuals

A minority of HIV-1-infected patients produce broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs). Identification of viral and host correlates of bNAb production may help develop vaccines. We aimed to characterize the neutralizing response and viral and host-associated factors in Angola, which has one of the oldest, most dynamic, and most diverse HIV-1 epidemics in the world. Three hundred twenty-two HIV-1-infected adults from Angola were included in this retrospective study. Phylogenetic analysis of C2V3C3 env gene sequences was used for virus subtyping. Env-binding antibody reactivity was tested against polypeptides comprising the C2, V3, and C3 regions. Neutralizing-antibody responses were determined against a reference panel of tier 2 Env pseudoviruses in TZM-bl cells; neutralizing epitope specificities were predicted using ClustVis. All subtypes were found, along with untypeable strains and recombinant forms. Notably, 56% of the patients developed cross neutralizing, broadly neutralizing, or elite neutralizing responses. Broad and elite neutralization was associated with longer infection time, subtype C, lower CD4+ T cell counts, higher age, and higher titer of C2V3C3-specific antibodies relative to failure to develop bNAbs. Neutralizing antibodies targeted the V3-glycan supersite in most patients. V3 and C3 regions were significantly less variable in elite neutralizers than in weak neutralizers and nonneutralizers, suggesting an active role of V3C3-directed bNAbs in controlling HIV-1 replication and diversification. In conclusion, prolonged and low-level envelope V3C3 stimulation by highly diverse and ancestral HIV-1 isolates promotes the frequent elicitation of bNAbs. These results provide important clues for the development of an effective HIV-1 vaccine. IMPORTANCE Studies on neutralization by antibodies and their determinants in HIV-1-infected individuals have mostly been conducted in relatively recent epidemics caused by subtype B and C viruses. Results have suggested that elicitation of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) is uncommon. The mechanisms underlying the elicitation of bNAbs are still largely unknown. We performed the first characterization of the plasma neutralizing response in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients from Angola. Angola is characterized by an old and dynamic epidemic caused by highly diverse HIV-1 variants. Remarkably, more than half of the patients produced bNAbs, mostly targeting the V3-glycan supersite in HIV-1. This was associated with higher age, longer infection time, lower CD4+ T cell counts, subtype C infection, or higher titer of C2V3C3-specific antibodies relative to patients that did not develop bNAbs. These results may help develop the next generation of vaccine candidates for HIV-1.

Teaching computational genomics and bioinformatics on a high performance computing cluster-a primer

The burgeoning field of genomics as applied to personalized medicine, epidemiology, conservation, agriculture, forensics, drug development, and other fields comes with large computational and bioinformatics costs, which are often inaccessible to student trainees in classroom settings at universities. However, with increased availability of resources such as NSF XSEDE, Google Cloud, Amazon AWS, and other high-performance computing (HPC) clouds and clusters for educational purposes, a growing community of academicians are working on teaching the utility of HPC resources in genomics and big data analyses. Here, I describe the successful implementation of a semester-long (16 week) upper division undergraduate/graduate level course in Computational Genomics and Bioinformatics taught at San Diego State University in Spring 2022. Students were trained in the theory, algorithms and hands-on applications of genomic data quality control, assembly, annotation, multiple sequence alignment, variant calling, phylogenomic analyses, population genomics, genome-wide association studies, and differential gene expression analyses using RNAseq data on their own dedicated 6-CPU NSF XSEDE Jetstream virtual machines. All lesson plans, activities, examinations, tutorials, code, lectures, and notes are publicly available at https://github.com/arunsethuraman/biomi609spring2022.

Evasion of cGAS and TRIM5 defines pandemic HIV

Of the 13 known independent zoonoses of simian immunodeficiency viruses to humans, only one, leading to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1(M) has become pandemic, causing over 80 million human infections. To understand the specific features associated with pandemic human-to-human HIV spread, we compared replication of HIV-1(M) with non-pandemic HIV-(O) and HIV-2 strains in myeloid cell models. We found that non-pandemic HIV lineages replicate less well than HIV-1(M) owing to activation of cGAS and TRIM5-mediated antiviral responses. We applied phylogenetic and X-ray crystallography structural analyses to identify differences between pandemic and non-pandemic HIV capsids. We found that genetic reversal of two specific amino acid adaptations in HIV-1(M) enables activation of TRIM5, cGAS and innate immune responses. We propose a model in which the parental lineage of pandemic HIV-1(M) evolved a capsid that prevents cGAS and TRIM5 triggering, thereby allowing silent replication in myeloid cells. We hypothesize that this capsid adaptation promotes human-to-human spread through avoidance of innate immune response activation.

Genome sequence analysis suggests coevolution of the DIS, SD, and Psi hairpins in HIV-1 genomes

HIV-1 RNA dimerization is a critical step in viral life cycle. It is a prerequisite for genome packaging and plays an important role in reverse transcription and recombination. Dimerization is promoted by the DIS (dimerization initiation site) hairpin located in the 5' leader of HIV-1 genome. Despite the high genetic diversity in HIV-1 group M, only five apical loops (AAGCGCGCA, AAGUGCGCA, AAGUGCACA, AGGUGCACA and AGUGCAC) are commonly found in DIS hairpins. We refer to the parent DISes with these apical loops as DIS_Lai, DIS_Trans, DIS_F, DIS_Mal, and DIS_C, respectively. Based on identity or similarity of DIS hairpins to parent DISes, we distributed HIV-1 M genomes into five dimerization groups. Comparison of the primary and secondary structures of DIS, SD and Psi hairpins in about 3000 HIV-1 M genomes showed that the mutation frequencies at particular nucleotide positions of these hairpins differ among the dimerization groups, and DIS_F may be an origin of other parent DISes. We found that DIS, SD and Psi hairpins have hundreds of variants, only some of them occurring rather frequently. The lower part of DIS hairpin with G x AGG internal loop is highly conserved in both HIV-1 and SIV genomes. We supposed that the G-quadruplex, located 56 nts downstream of the Gag start codon, may participate in switching of HIV-1 leader RNA from BMH (branched multiple hairpins) to LDI (long distance interaction) conformation.

The potential of genomics for infectious disease forecasting

Genomic technologies have led to tremendous gains in understanding how pathogens function, evolve and interact. Pathogen diversity is now measurable at high precision and resolution, in part because over the past decade, sequencing technologies have increased in speed and capacity, at decreased cost. Alongside this, the use of models that can forecast emergence and size of infectious disease outbreaks has risen, highlighted by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic but also due to modelling advances that allow for rapid estimates in emerging outbreaks to inform monitoring, coordination and resource deployment. However, genomics studies have remained largely retrospective. While they contain high-resolution views of pathogen diversification and evolution in the context of selection, they are often not aligned with designing interventions. This is a missed opportunity because pathogen diversification is at the core of the most pressing infectious public health challenges, and interventions need to take the mechanisms of virulence and understanding of pathogen diversification into account. In this Perspective, we assess these converging fields, discuss current challenges facing both surveillance specialists and modellers who want to harness genomic data, and propose next steps for integrating longitudinally sampled genomic data with statistical learning and interpretable modelling to make reliable predictions into the future.

Contribution of phylogenetics to understanding the evolution and epidemiology of dengue virus

Dengue virus (DENV) is one of the most important arboviral pathogens in the tropics and subtropics, and nearly one‐third of the world's population is at risk of infection. The transmission of DENV involves a sylvatic cycle between nonhuman primates (NHP) and Aedes genus mosquitoes, and an endemic cycle between human hosts and predominantly Aedes aegypti. DENV belongs to the genus Flavivirus of the family Flaviviridae and consists of four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV‐1‐4). Phylogenetic analyses of DENV have revealed its origin, epidemiology, and the drivers that determine its molecular evolution in nature. This review discusses how phylogenetic research has improved our understanding of DENV evolution and how it affects viral ecology and improved our ability to analyze and predict future DENV emergence.

Synthesizing the connections between environmental disturbances and zoonotic spillover

Zoonotic spillover is a phenomenon characterized by the transfer of pathogens between different animal species. Most human emerging infectious diseases originate from non-human animals, and human-related environmental disturbances are the driving forces of the emergence of new human pathogens. Synthesizing the sequence of basic events involved in the emergence of new human pathogens is important for guiding the understanding, identification, and description of key aspects of human activities that can be changed to prevent new outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. This review synthesizes the connections between environmental disturbances and increased risk of spillover events based on the One Health perspective. Anthropogenic disturbances in the environment (e.g., deforestation, habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss, wildlife exploitation) lead to changes in ecological niches, reduction of the dilution effect, increased contact between humans and other animals, changes in the incidence and load of pathogens in animal populations, and alterations in the abiotic factors of landscapes. These phenomena can increase the risk of spillover events and, potentially, facilitate new infectious disease outbreaks. Using Brazil as a study model, this review brings a discussion concerning anthropogenic activities in the Amazon region and their potential impacts on spillover risk and spread of emerging diseases in this region.

Sexual behaviour changes and HIV infection among men who have sex with men: evidence from an open cohort in China

BACKGROUND

The HIV epidemic in key populations such as men who have sex with men (MSM) is a public health issue of worldwide concern. China has seen an increase in newly diagnosed HIV infections through male-male sexual contact in the past decade. In a long-term cohort, how the complex behaviour pattern of MSM changed and the association with the HIV risk are unclear at present.

METHODS

This study was conducted from October 2011 to December 2019 in Tianjin. MSM were recruited by snowball sampling through online and offline ways. Demographic and sexual behavioural data were collected for analysis. Three indicators (condom use in last anal sex, frequency of condom use during anal sex and the number of sexual partners) were used to define the behaviour change. Participants with zero, one, and two or three risk indicators were categorised into behaviour types of 'protective', 'moderate', and 'fragile', respectively. Change in behaviour type between baseline and each visit was considered. Time-varying Cox models were performed to evaluate HIV infection risk.

RESULTS

Of 2029 MSM included in the study, 127 were new HIV diagnoses. The overall incidence rate was 3.36 per 100 person-years. The percentage of 'protective' and 'moderate' behaviour types had a conspicuous growth trend as the follow-up. Furthermore, the HIV incidence rate in each visit among different behaviour transition types showed a general downward trend as the number of total follow-up times increased. Individuals who remained in 'fragile' (adjusted HR (aHR): 25.86, 95% CI: 6.92 to 96.57) or changed from 'protective' to 'moderate' (aHR: 4.79, 95% CI: 1.18 to 19.47), 'protective' to 'fragile' (aHR: 23.03, 95% CI: 6.02 to 88.13), and 'moderate' to 'fragile' (aHR: 25.48, 95% CI: 6.79 to 95.40) between baseline and the last follow-up had a higher HIV risk. Gained risk indicators were associated with the increase of HIV risk (gained one indicator, aHR: 2.67, 95% CI: 1.68 to 4.24; gained two or three indicators, aHR: 4.99, 95% CI: 3.00 to 8.31) while losing just one risk indicator could halve the risk (aHR: 0.43, 95% CI: 0.21 to 0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

Among MSM in Tianjin, it is necessary to get timely behaviour change for those with high-incidence behaviour patterns while sustaining for those with low-incidence patterns.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Chinese Clinical Trials Registry (ChiCTR2000039500).

When can we reconstruct the ancestral state? A unified theory

Ancestral state reconstruction is one of the most important tasks in evolutionary biology. Conditions under which we can reliably reconstruct the ancestral state have been studied for both discrete and continuous traits. However, the connection between these results is unclear, and it seems that each model needs different conditions. In this work, we provide a unifying theory on the consistency of ancestral state reconstruction for various types of trait evolution models. Notably, we show that for a sequence of nested trees with bounded heights, the necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a consistent ancestral state reconstruction method under discrete models, the Brownian motion model, and the threshold model are equivalent. When tree heights are unbounded, we provide a simple counter-example to show that this equivalence is no longer valid.

The Emergence, Diversification, and Transmission of Subgroup J Avian Leukosis Virus Reveals that the Live Chicken Trade Plays a Critical Role in the Adaption and Endemicity of Viruses to the Yellow-Chickens

The geographical spread and inter-host transmission of the subgroup J avian leukosis virus (ALV-J) may be the most important issues for epidemiology. An integrated analysis, including phylogenetic trees, homology modeling, evolutionary dynamics, selection analysis and viral transmission, based on the gp85 gene sequences of the 665 worldwide ALV-J isolates during 1988-2020, was performed. A new Clade 3 has been emerging and was evolved from the dominating Clade 1.3 of the Chinese Yellow-chicken, and the loss of a α-helix or β-sheet of the gp85 protein monomer was found by the homology modeling. The rapid evolution found in Clades 1.3 and 3 may be closely associated with the adaption and endemicity of viruses to the Yellow-chickens. The early U.S. strains from Clade 1.1 acted as an important source for the global spread of ALV-J and the earliest introduction into China was closely associated with the imported chicken breeders in the 1990s. The dominant outward migrations of Clades 1.1 and 1.2, respectively, from the Chinese northern White-chickens and layers to the Chinese southern Yellow-chickens, and the dominating migration of Clade 1.3 from the Chinese southern Yellow-chickens to other regions and hosts, indicated that the long-distance movement of these viruses between regions in China was associated with the live chicken trade. Furthermore, Yellow-chickens have been facing the risk of infections of the emerging Clades 2 and 3. Our findings provide new insights for the epidemiology and help to understand the critical factors involved in ALV-J dissemination. IMPORTANCE Although the general epidemiology of ALV-J is well studied, the ongoing evolutionary and transmission dynamics of the virus remain poorly investigated. The phylogenetic differences and relationship of the clades and subclades were characterized, and the epidemics and factors driving the geographical spread and inter-host transmission of different ALV-J clades were explored for the first time. The results indicated that the earliest ALV-J (Clade 1.1) from the United States, acted as the source for global spreads, and Clades 1.2, 1.3 and 3 were all subsequently evolved. Also the epidemiological investigation showed that the early imported breeders and the inter-region movements of live chickens facilitated the ALV-J dispersal throughout China and highlighted the needs to implement more effective containment measures.

Postscript: A pandemic read on African health and environmental histories

This postscript reflects on this special issue's contributions for readers preoccupied with the COVID-19 pandemic. First, these articles on African environment and health underscore that past process of and interventions into land use and human health have cumulative effects on disease emergence and re-emergence. Relatedly, although multiple epidemics have affected the African continent and other parts of the world over the past century, global health institutions and actors have sidelined or forgotten these epidemics. These analyses draw our attention to the historical production and mobilization of specific concepts which frame what questions are asked, how they are answered, and the material solutions provided or withheld. And finally, these pieces highlight the ethical stakes of agricultural, conservation, and health interventions, reminding us that the African continent's histories are fraught with inequities from colonial and postcolonial extractive relations and racist assumptions that have undermined livelihoods, food security and health. As African states, institutions, and global health critics politick for vaccine equity and deplore the inequitable access to COVID-19 vaccines in African countries compared to the rest of the world, these articles remind us that these long-standing inequities should catalyze fundamental change.