Deep antiquity of seagrasses supporting European eel fisheries in the western Baltic

Protecting ocean habitats is critical for international efforts to mitigate climate impacts and ensure food security, but the ecological data upon which policy makers base conservation and restoration targets often reflect ecosystems that have already been deeply impacted by anthropogenic change. The archaeological record is a biomolecular archive offering a temporal scope that cannot be gathered from historical records or contemporary fieldwork. Insights from biogeochemical and osteometric analyses of fish bones, combined with context from contemporary field studies, show how prehistoric fisheries in the western Baltic relied on seagrass meadows. European eels (Anguilla anguilla) harvested by Mesolithic and Neolithic peoples over millennia showed a strong fidelity for eelgrass foraging habitats, an ecological relationship that remains largely overlooked today, demonstrating the value of protecting these habitats. These data open new windows onto ecosystem- and species-level behaviours, highlighting the need for wider incorporation of archaeological data in strategies for protecting our oceans.

Squamate scavenging services: Heath goannas (Varanus rosenbergi) support carcass removal and may suppress agriculturally damaging blowflies

Human-induced environmental change has caused widespread loss of species that support important functions for ecosystems and society. For example, vertebrate scavengers contribute to the functional health of ecosystems and provide services to agricultural landscapes by removing carcasses and associated pests. Widespread extirpation of native Australian mammals since the arrival of Europeans in Australia has removed many scavenging species from landscapes, while scavenging mammals such as European red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) have been introduced. In much of Australia, squamate reptiles are the largest native terrestrial scavengers remaining, where large native mammals are extinct and conservation management is being undertaken to remove invasive mammals. The contribution of reptiles to scavenging functions is not well understood. In this study, we investigated the ecosystem functions provided by large reptiles as scavengers to better understand how populations can be managed to support ecosystem services. We investigated the ecosystem services provided by vertebrate scavengers in Australian coastal mallee ecosystems, focusing on the heath goanna (Varanus rosenbergi), the only extant native terrestrial scavenger in the region. We carried out exclosure experiments, isolating the scavenging activity of different taxonomic groups to quantify the contribution of different taxa to scavenging services, specifically the removal of rat carcasses, and its impact on the occurrence of agriculturally damaging blowflies. We compared areas with different native and invasive scavenger communities to investigate the impact of invasive species removal and native species abundance on scavenging services. Our results indicated that vertebrate scavenging significantly contributes to carcass removal and limitation of necrophagous fly breeding in carcasses and that levels of removal are higher in areas associated with high densities of heath goannas and low densities of invasive mammals. Therefore, augmentation of heath goanna populations represents a promising management strategy to restore and maximize scavenging ecosystem services.

Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene

Recent climate change has effectively rewound the climate clock by approximately 120 000 years and is expected to reverse this clock a further 50 Myr by 2100. We aimed to answer two essential questions to better understand the changes in ecosystems worldwide owing to predicted climate change. Firstly, we identify the locations and time frames where novel ecosystems could emerge owing to climate change. Secondly, we aim to determine the extent to which biomes, in their current distribution, will experience an increase in climate-driven ecological novelty. To answer these questions, we analysed three perspectives on how climate changes could result in novel ecosystems in the near term (2100), medium (2200) and long term (2300). These perspectives included identifying areas where climate change could result in new climatic combinations, climate isoclines moving faster than species migration capacity and current environmental patterns being disaggregated. Using these metrics, we determined when and where novel ecosystems could emerge. Our analysis shows that unless rapid mitigation measures are taken, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be over 50% of the land surface by 2100 under all change scenarios. By 2300, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be above 80% of the land surface. At the biome scale, these changes could mean that over 50% of locations could shift towards novel ecosystems, with the majority seeing these changes in the next few decades. Our research shows that the impact of climate change on ecosystems is complex and varied, requiring global action to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Biodiversity dynamics and stewardship in a transforming biosphere'. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Ancient DNA and osteological analyses of a unique paleo-archive reveal Early Holocene faunal expansion into the Scandinavian Arctic

Paleo-archives are essential for our understanding of species responses to climate warming, yet such archives are extremely rare in the Arctic. Here, we combine morphological analyses and bulk-bone metabarcoding to investigate a unique chronology of bone deposits sealed in the high-latitude Storsteinhola cave system (68°50' N 16°22' E) in Norway. This deposit dates to a period of climate warming from the end of the Late Glacial [~13 thousand calibrated years before the present (ka cal B.P.)] to the Holocene thermal maximum (~5.6 ka cal B.P.). Paleogenetic analyses allow us to exploit the 1000s of morphologically unidentifiable bone fragments resulting in a high-resolution sequence with 40 different taxa, including species not previously found here. Our record reveals borealization in both the marine and terrestrial environments above the Arctic Circle as a naturally recurring phenomenon in past periods of warming, providing fundamental insights into the ecosystem-wide responses that are ongoing today.

Changes in parrot diversity after human arrival to the Caribbean

Humans did not arrive on most of the world's islands until relatively recently, making islands favorable places for disentangling the timing and magnitude of natural and anthropogenic impacts on species diversity and distributions. Here, we focus on Amazona parrots in the Caribbean, which have close relationships with humans (e.g., as pets as well as sources of meat and colorful feathers). Caribbean parrots also have substantial fossil and archaeological records that span the Holocene. We leverage this exemplary record to showcase how combining ancient and modern DNA, along with radiometric dating, can shed light on diversification and extinction dynamics and answer long-standing questions about the magnitude of human impacts in the region. Our results reveal a striking loss of parrot diversity, much of which took place during human occupation of the islands. The most widespread species, the Cuban Parrot, exhibits interisland divergences throughout the Pleistocene. Within this radiation, we identified an extinct, genetically distinct lineage that survived on the Turks and Caicos until Indigenous human settlement of the islands. We also found that the narrowly distributed Hispaniolan Parrot had a natural range that once included The Bahamas; it thus became "endemic" to Hispaniola during the late Holocene. The Hispaniolan Parrot also likely was introduced by Indigenous people to Grand Turk and Montserrat, two islands where it is now also extirpated. Our research demonstrates that genetic information spanning paleontological, archaeological, and modern contexts is essential to understand the role of humans in altering the diversity and distribution of biota.

Mechanistic neutral models show that sampling biases drive the apparent explosion of early tetrapod diversity

Estimates of deep-time biodiversity typically rely on statistical methods to mitigate the impacts of sampling biases in the fossil record. However, these methods are limited by the spatial and temporal scale of the underlying data. Here we use a spatially explicit mechanistic model, based on neutral theory, to test hypotheses of early tetrapod diversity change during the late Carboniferous and early Permian, critical intervals for the diversification of vertebrate life on land. Our simulations suggest that apparent increases in early tetrapod diversity were not driven by local endemism following the 'Carboniferous rainforest collapse'. Instead, changes in face-value diversity can be explained by variation in sampling intensity through time. Our results further demonstrate the importance of accounting for sampling biases in analyses of the fossil record and highlight the vast potential of mechanistic models, including neutral models, for testing hypotheses in palaeobiology.

Understanding and applying biological resilience, from genes to ecosystems

The natural world is under unprecedented and accelerating pressure. Much work on understanding resilience to local and global environmental change has, so far, focussed on ecosystems. However, understanding a system's behaviour requires knowledge of its component parts and their interactions. Here we call for increased efforts to understand 'biological resilience', or the processes that enable components across biological levels, from genes to communities, to resist or recover from perturbations. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists have the tool-boxes to examine form and function, efforts to integrate this knowledge across biological levels and take advantage of big data (e.g. ecological and genomic) are only just beginning. We argue that combining eco-evolutionary knowledge with ecosystem-level concepts of resilience will provide the mechanistic basis necessary to improve management of human, natural and agricultural ecosystems, and outline some of the challenges in achieving an understanding of biological resilience.

Impacts of large herbivores on terrestrial ecosystems

Large herbivores play unique ecological roles and are disproportionately imperiled by human activity. As many wild populations dwindle towards extinction, and as interest grows in restoring lost biodiversity, research on large herbivores and their ecological impacts has intensified. Yet, results are often conflicting or contingent on local conditions, and new findings have challenged conventional wisdom, making it hard to discern general principles. Here, we review what is known about the ecosystem impacts of large herbivores globally, identify key uncertainties, and suggest priorities to guide research. Many findings are generalizable across ecosystems: large herbivores consistently exert top-down control of plant demography, species composition, and biomass, thereby suppressing fires and the abundance of smaller animals. Other general patterns do not have clearly defined impacts: large herbivores respond to predation risk but the strength of trophic cascades is variable; large herbivores move vast quantities of seeds and nutrients but with poorly understood effects on vegetation and biogeochemistry. Questions of the greatest relevance for conservation and management are among the least certain, including effects on carbon storage and other ecosystem functions and the ability to predict outcomes of extinctions and reintroductions. A unifying theme is the role of body size in regulating ecological impact. Small herbivores cannot fully substitute for large ones, and large-herbivore species are not functionally redundant - losing any, especially the largest, will alter net impact, helping to explain why livestock are poor surrogates for wild species. We advocate leveraging a broad spectrum of techniques to mechanistically explain how large-herbivore traits and environmental context interactively govern the ecological impacts of these animals.

Contrasting ecological information content in whaling archives with modern cetacean surveys for conservation planning and identification of historical distribution changes

Many species are restricted to a marginal or suboptimal fraction of their historical range due to anthropogenic impacts, making it hard to interpret their ecological preferences from modern-day data alone. However, inferring past ecological states is limited by the availability of robust data and biases in historical archives, posing a challenge for policy makers . To highlight how historical records can be used to understand the ecological requirements of threatened species and inform conservation, we investigated sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) distribution in the Western Indian Ocean. We assessed differences in information content and habitat suitability predictions based on whale occurrence data from Yankee whaling logs (1792-1912) and from modern cetacean surveys (1995-2020). We built maximum entropy habitat suitability models containing static (bathymetry-derived) variables to compare models comprising historical-only and modern-only data. Using both historical and modern habitat suitability predictions  we assessed marine protected area (MPA) placement by contrasting suitability in- and outside MPAs. The historical model predicted high habitat suitability in shelf and coastal regions near continents and islands, whereas the modern model predicted a less coastal distribution with high habitat suitability more restricted to areas of steep topography. The proportion of high habitat suitability inside versus outside MPAs was higher when applying the historical predictions than the modern predictions, suggesting that different marine spatial planning optimums can be reached from either data sources. Moreover, differences in relative habitat suitability predictions between eras were consistent with the historical depletion of sperm whales from coastal regions, which were easily accessed and targeted by whalers, resulting in a modern distribution limited more to steep continental margins and remote oceanic ridges. The use of historical data can provide important new insights and, through cautious interpretation, inform conservation planning and policy, for example, by identifying refugee species and regions of anticipated population recovery.

Historical DNA from a rediscovered nineteenth-century paratype reveals genetic continuity of a Bahamian hutia (Geocapromys ingrahami) population

Past and ongoing human activities have shaped the geographical ranges and diversity of species. New genomic techniques applied to degraded samples, such as those from natural history collections, can uncover the complex evolutionary consequences of human pressures and generate baselines for interpreting magnitudes of species loss or persistence relevant to conservation. Here we integrate mitogenomic data with historical records from a recently rediscovered Bahamian hutia (Geocapromys ingrahami; (FMP Z02816)) specimen at the Fairbanks Museum & Planetarium (Vermont, USA) to determine when and where the specimen was collected and to place it in a phylogenetic context with specimens that both predate (palaeontological) and postdate (archaeological) human arrival in The Bahamas. We determined that this specimen was part of the same population as the named holotype specimen in 1891 on East Plana Cay (EPC). Bahamian hutia populations were widely extirpated following European colonization. Today, EPC hosts the last remaining natural Bahamian hutia population. Mitogenomic data places the focal specimen within the southern Bahamian hutia population, which is now largely restricted to EPC. The results reveal previously undocumented genetic continuity among the EPC population for at least the past 500 years, highlighting how 'dark' museum specimens inform new conservation-relevant understandings of diversity.

Sampling bias and the robustness of ecological metrics for plant-damage-type association networks

Plants and their insect herbivores have been a dominant component of the terrestrial ecological landscape for the past 410 million years and feature intricate evolutionary patterns and co-dependencies. A complex systems perspective allows for both detailed resolution of these evolutionary relationships as well as comparison and synthesis across systems. Using proxy data of insect herbivore damage (denoted by the damage type or DT) preserved on fossil leaves, functional bipartite network representations provide insights into how plant-insect associations depend on geological time, paleogeographical space, and environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation. However, the metrics measured from such networks are prone to sampling bias. Such sensitivity is of special concern for plant-DT association networks in paleontological settings where sampling effort is often severely limited. Here, we explore the sensitivity of functional bipartite network metrics to sampling intensity and identify sampling thresholds above which metrics appear robust to sampling effort. Across a broad range of sampling efforts, we find network metrics to be less affected by sampling bias and/or sample size than richness metrics, which are routinely used in studies of fossil plant-DT interactions. These results provide reassurance that cross-comparisons of plant-DT networks offer insights into network structure and function and support their widespread use in paleoecology. Moreover, these findings suggest novel opportunities for using plant-DT networks in neontological terrestrial ecology to understand functional aspects of insect herbivory across geological time, environmental perturbations, and geographic space.

Soil properties and plant species can predict population size and potential introduction sites of the endangered orchid Cypripedium calceolus

Background and Aims

To counteract the ongoing worldwide biodiversity loss, conservation actions are required to re-establish populations of threatened species. Two key factors predominantly involved in finding the most suitable habitats for endangered plant species are the surrounding plant community composition and the physicochemical parameters of the soil rooting zone. However, such factors are likely to be context- and species-dependent, so it remains unclear to what extent they influence the performance of target species.

Methods

We studied large and small Swiss populations of the endangered orchid Cypripedium calceolus. We measured functional traits related to C. calceolus plant and population performance (clonal patch area, plant height, number, of leaf, stems, flowers and fruits), realized vegetation surveys, soil profile analyses, and tested for relationships between plant traits and the surrounding vegetation structure or soil physicochemical parameters.

Results

Large populations contained bigger patches with more stems and leaves, and produced more flower per individual than small populations. Neither vegetation alliances nor soil classes per se could predict C. calceolus functional traits and population size. However, functional traits explaining population performance and size were related to specific soil parameters (soil organic matter content, pH and phosphorus), in addition to a combination of presence-absence of plant indicator species, relating to ecotones between forests and clearings.

Conclusion

We show that even for species that can grow across a wide range of vegetation groups both indicator species and specific soil parameters can be used to assess the most favourable sites to implement (re)-introduction actions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11104-023-05945-4.

What is conservation paleobiology? Tracking 20 years of research and development

Conservation paleobiology has coalesced over the last two decades since its formal coining, united by the goal of applying geohistorical records to inform the conservation, management, and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, the field is still attempting to form an identity distinct from its academic roots. Here, we ask a deceptively simple question: What is conservation paleobiology? To track its development as a field, we synthesize complementary perspectives from a survey of the scientific community that is familiar with conservation paleobiology and a systematic literature review of publications that use the term. We present an overview of conservation paleobiology’s research scope and compare survey participants’ perceptions of what it is and what it should be as a field. We find that conservation paleobiologists use a variety of geohistorical data in their work, although research is typified by near-time records of marine molluscs and terrestrial mammals collected over local to regional spatial scales. Our results also confirm the field’s broad disciplinary basis: survey participants indicated that conservation paleobiology can incorporate information from a wide range of disciplines spanning conservation biology, ecology, historical ecology, paleontology, and archaeology. Finally, we show that conservation paleobiologists have yet to reach a consensus on how applied the field should be in practice. The survey revealed that many participants thought the field should be more applied but that most do not currently engage with conservation practice. Reflecting on how conservation paleobiology has developed over the last two decades, we discuss opportunities to promote community cohesion, strengthen collaborations within conservation science, and align training priorities with the field’s identity as it continues to crystallize.

Madagascar’s extraordinary biodiversity: Evolution, distribution, and use

Madagascar’s biota is hyperdiverse and includes exceptional levels of endemicity. We review the current state of knowledge on Madagascar’s past and current terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by compiling and presenting comprehensive data on species diversity, endemism, and rates of species description and human uses, in addition to presenting an updated and simplified map of vegetation types. We report a substantial increase of records and species new to science in recent years; however, the diversity and evolution of many groups remain practically unknown (e.g., fungi and most invertebrates). Digitization efforts are increasing the resolution of species richness patterns and we highlight the crucial role of field- and collections-based research for advancing biodiversity knowledge and identifying gaps in our understanding, particularly as species richness corresponds closely to collection effort. Phylogenetic diversity patterns mirror that of species richness and endemism in most of the analyzed groups. We highlight humid forests as centers of diversity and endemism because of their role as refugia and centers of recent and rapid radiations. However, the distinct endemism of other areas, such as the grassland-woodland mosaic of the Central Highlands and the spiny forest of the southwest, is also biologically important despite lower species richness. The documented uses of Malagasy biodiversity are manifold, with much potential for the uncovering of new useful traits for food, medicine, and climate mitigation. The data presented here showcase Madagascar as a unique “living laboratory” for our understanding of evolution and the complex interactions between people and nature. The gathering and analysis of biodiversity data must continue and accelerate if we are to fully understand and safeguard this unique subset of Earth’s biodiversity.

Forecasting the influence of conservation strategies on landscape connectivity

Maintaining and enhancing landscape connectivity reduces biodiversity declines due to habitat fragmentation. Uncertainty remains, however, about the effectiveness of conservation for enhancing connectivity for multiple species on dynamic landscapes, especially over long time horizons. We forecasted landscape connectivity from 2020 to 2100 under four common conservation land-acquisition strategies: acquiring the lowest cost land, acquiring land clustered around already established conservation areas, acquiring land with high geodiversity characteristics, and acquiring land opportunistically. We used graph theoretic metrics to quantify landscape connectivity across these four strategies, evaluating connectivity for four ecologically relevant species guilds that represent endpoints along a spectrum of vagility and habitat specificity: long- versus short-distance dispersal ability and habitat specialists versus generalists. We applied our method to central North Carolina and incorporated landscape dynamics, including forest growth, succession, disturbance, and management. Landscape connectivity improved for specialist species under all conservation strategies employed, although increases were highly variable across strategies. For generalist species, connectivity improvements were negligible. Overall, clustering the development of new protected areas around land already designated for conservation yielded the largest improvements in connectivity; increases were several orders of magnitude beyond current landscape connectivity for long- and short-distance dispersing specialist species. Conserving the lowest cost land contributed the least to connectivity. Our approach provides insight into the connectivity contributions of a suite of conservation alternatives prior to on-the-ground implementation and, therefore, can inform connectivity planning to maximize conservation benefit.

Taxonomic revision of Chinemys pani (Testudines: Geoemydidae) from the Pleistocene of Taiwan and its implications of conservation paleobiology

Proper taxonomic identification is critical to our understanding of biodiversity and the underlying evolutionary history. Here we re-examine the cast of the holotype of Chinemys pani, a geoemydid turtle from the Pleistocene of Taiwan; the actual specimen was not curated appropriately after the original publication and was most likely lost. Our results provide substantial evidence to show that Chinemys pani should be identified as Mauremys reevesii. The replica, though not ideal, preserves various morphological features that allow reliable taxonomic identification of Mauremys reevesii, including the presence of three longitudinal keels on the carapace, the second to sixth neural bones anteriorly short-sided, and the lack of a movable plastral hinge. In addition, we also confirm that the original diagnostic features that established the new taxon: Chinemys pani - are polymorphic characters of Mauremys reevesii. Our taxonomic revision of a Pleistocene geoemydid turtle from Taiwan confirms the existence of the Pleistocene Mauremys reevesii. More importantly, this study offers new insights into the origin of modern biodiversity in Taiwan and gives a straightforward example of how fossils can be applied to conservation policies.

Spatiotemporal impacts of the Anthropocene on small mammal communities, and the role of small biological preserves in maintaining biodiversity

The multi-faceted impacts of the Anthropocene are increasingly modifying natural ecosystems and threatening biodiversity. Can small protected spaces conserve small mammal diversity across spatial and temporal scales of human impact? We identified small mammal remains from modern raptor pellets and Holocene archeological sites along a human modification gradient in the San Francisco Bay Area, CA and evaluated alpha and beta diversity across sites and time periods. We found that Shannon diversity, standardized species richness, and evenness decrease across modern sites based on level of human modification, with no corresponding change between Holocene sites. Additionally, the alpha diversity of modern sites with moderate and high levels of human modification was significantly lower than the diversity of modern sites with low levels of human modification as well as all Holocene sites. On the other hand, the small mammal communities from Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, a small protected area, retain Holocene levels of alpha diversity. Jasper Ridge has also changed less over time in terms of overall community composition (beta diversity) than more modified sites. Despite this, Holocene and Anthropocene communities are distinct regardless of study area. Our results suggest that small mammal communities today are fundamentally different from even a few centuries ago, but that even relatively small protected spaces can partially conserve native faunal communities, highlighting their important role in urban conservation.

Glimmers of hope in large carnivore recoveries

In the face of an accelerating extinction crisis, scientists must draw insights from successful conservation interventions to uncover promising strategies for reversing broader declines. Here, we synthesize cases of recovery from a list of 362 species of large carnivores, ecologically important species that function as terminal consumers in many ecological contexts. Large carnivores represent critical conservation targets that have experienced historical declines as a result of direct exploitation and habitat loss. We examine taxonomic and geographic variation in current extinction risk and recovery indices, identify conservation actions associated with positive outcomes, and reveal anthropogenic threats linked to ongoing declines. We find that fewer than 10% of global large carnivore populations are increasing, and only 12 species (3.3%) have experienced genuine improvement in extinction risk, mostly limited to recoveries among marine mammals. Recovery is associated with species legislation enacted at national and international levels, and with management of direct exploitation. Conversely, ongoing declines are robustly linked to threats that include habitat modification and human conflict. Applying lessons from cases of large carnivore recovery will be crucial for restoring intact ecosystems and maintaining the services they provide to humans.

Late quaternary biotic homogenization of North American mammalian faunas

Biotic homogenization—increasing similarity of species composition among ecological communities—has been linked to anthropogenic processes operating over the last century. Fossil evidence, however, suggests that humans have had impacts on ecosystems for millennia. We quantify biotic homogenization of North American mammalian assemblages during the late Pleistocene through Holocene (~30,000 ybp to recent), a timespan encompassing increased evidence of humans on the landscape (~20,000–14,000 ybp). From ~10,000 ybp to recent, assemblages became significantly more homogenous (>100% increase in Jaccard similarity), a pattern that cannot be explained by changes in fossil record sampling. Homogenization was most pronounced among mammals larger than 1 kg and occurred in two phases. The first followed the megafaunal extinction at ~10,000 ybp. The second, more rapid phase began during human population growth and early agricultural intensification (~2,000–1,000 ybp). We show that North American ecosystems were homogenizing for millennia, extending human impacts back ~10,000 years.

Biotic homogenization, which is increased similarity in the composition of species among communities, is rising due to human activities. Using North American mammal fossil records from the past 30,000 years, this study shows that this phenomenon is ancient, beginning between 12,000 and 10,000 years ago with the extinction of the mammal megafauna.

Resilient biotic response to long-term climate change in the Adriatic Sea

Preserving adaptive capacities of coastal ecosystems, which are currently facing the ongoing climate warming and a multitude of other anthropogenic impacts, requires an understanding of long-term biotic dynamics in the context of major environmental shifts prior to human disturbances. We quantified responses of nearshore mollusk assemblages to long-term climate and sea-level changes using 223 samples (~71,300 specimens) retrieved from latest Quaternary sediment cores of the Adriatic coastal systems. These cores provide a rare chance to study coastal systems that existed during glacial lowstands. The fossil mollusk record indicates that nearshore assemblages of the penultimate interglacial (Late Pleistocene) shifted in their faunal composition during the subsequent ice age, and then reassembled again with the return of interglacial climate in the Holocene. These shifts point to a climate-driven habitat filtering modulated by dispersal processes. The resilient, rather than persistent or stochastic, response of the mollusk assemblages to long-term environmental changes over at least 125 thousand years highlights the historically unprecedented nature of the ongoing anthropogenic stressors (e.g., pollution, eutrophication, bottom trawling, and invasive species) that are currently shifting coastal regions into novel system states far outside the range of natural variability archived in the fossil record.

Long-Term Shifts in Faunal Composition of Freshwater Mollusks in Spring-Fed Rivers of Florida

Florida’s freshwater spring and river ecosystems have been deteriorating due to direct and indirect human impacts. However, while the conservation and restoration strategies employed to mitigate these effects often rely on faunal surveys that go back several decades, the local ecosystem shifts tend to have much deeper roots that predate those faunal surveys by centuries or millennia. Conservation paleobiology, an approach which enhances our understanding of the past states of ecosystems, allows for comparison of modern faunal communities with those prior to significant human impacts. This study examines the historical record of freshwater mollusk assemblages from two spring-fed river systems, the Wakulla and Silver/Ocklawaha Rivers. Specifically, we compared fossil assemblages (latest Pleistocene - early Holocene) and live mollusk assemblages in the two targeted river systems. Bulk sampling of the fossil record (20 sites; 70 samples; 16,314 specimens) documented relatively diverse mollusk assemblages that consist of a suite of native freshwater species that is similar across the studied systems. In contrast, sampling of live communities (24 sites; 138 samples; 7,572 specimens) revealed depauperate species assemblies characterized by the absence of multiple native freshwater species commonly found in fossil samples, the widespread presence of introduced species, and dominance of brackish-tolerant species at the lower Wakulla River sites. Unlike fossil mollusk assemblages, live mollusk assemblages differ notably between the two river systems due to differences in relative abundance of introduced species (Melanoides tuberculata and Corbicula fluminea) and the presence of brackish-tolerant mollusks in the coastally influenced Wakulla River. The diverse, exclusively freshwater mollusk associations comparable across multiple river systems documented in the fossil record provide a historical perspective on the past state of freshwater river ecosystems complementing data provided by modern surveys. The conservation paleobiology approach used in this study reinforces the importance of considering the historical ecology of an ecosystem and the utility of the fossil record in providing a historical perspective on long-term faunal changes.

Leveraging palaeoproteomics to address conservation and restoration agendas

Archaeological and paleontological records offer tremendous yet often untapped potential for examining long-term biodiversity trends and the impact of climate change and human activity on ecosystems. Yet, zooarchaeological and fossil remains suffer various limitations, including that they are often highly fragmented and morphologically unidentifiable, preventing them from being optimally leveraged for addressing fundamental research questions in archaeology, paleontology, and conservation paleobiology. Here, we explore the potential of palaeoproteomics—the study of ancient proteins—to serve as a critical tool for creating richer, more informative datasets about biodiversity change that can be leveraged to generate more realistic, constructive, and effective conservation and restoration strategies into the future.

Land management explains major trends in forest structure and composition over the last millennium in California's Klamath Mountains

SignificanceWe provide the first assessment of aboveground live tree biomass in a mixed conifer forest over the late Holocene. The biomass record, coupled with local Native oral history and fire scar records, shows that Native burning practices, along with a natural lightning-based fire regime, promoted long-term stability of the forest structure and composition for at least 1 millennium in a California forest. This record demonstrates that climate alone cannot account for observed forest conditions. Instead, forests were also shaped by a regime of frequent fire, including intentional ignitions by Native people. This work suggests a large-scale intervention could be required to achieve the historical conditions that supported forest resiliency and reflected Indigenous influence.

Qurliqnoria (Mammalia: Bovidae) fossils from Qaidam Basin, Tibetan Plateau and deep-time endemism of the Tibetan antelope lineage

The Tibetan antelope (Pantholops hodgsonii) is an endemic bovid of the Tibetan Plateau, which was, until recently, considered an endangered species. Researchers have long speculated on the evolutionary origin of Pantholops, suggesting a connection to the rare fossil bovid Qurliqnoria. However, the lack of adequate fossil samples has prevented the testing of this deep-time endemism hypothesis for eight decades. Here, we report new fossils of Qurliqnoria cheni from the northern Tibetan Plateau, substantially increasing the amount of morphological data that can be brought to bear on the question of Tibetan antelope evolution. Phylogenetic analysis supports a Pantholops–Qurliqnoria clade and suggests that this lineage has been endemic to the Plateau for 11 Myr. Recent morphological and molecular studies that support the outgroup position of Pantholops relative to caprins (goats and relatives) and the fossil record of stem bovids from Europe together suggest that the Qurliqnoria–Pantholops lineage is likely to have dispersed to the Tibetan Plateau 15–11 Mya. Furthermore, the harsh environmental conditions to which Pantholops has adapted are likely to extend back to the time of its evolutionary origin. These findings provide an important new context for conservation management and research into the near-threatened Tibetan antelope, as the longest-living endemic member of the Tibetan Plateau fauna.

Predation Scars Reveal Declines in Crab Populations Since the Pleistocene

Despite growing concerns over global fisheries, the stock status of most commercially exploited species are poorly understood. Fossil data provide pre-anthropogenic baselines for data-poor fisheries, yet are underutilized in fisheries management. Here, we provide the first use of predation traces to assess the status of fisheries (crab). We compared crab predation traces on living individuals of the crab prey gastropod, Tegula funebralis, to Pleistocene individuals from the same regions in southern California. There were fewer crab predation traces on modern gastropods than their Pleistocene counterparts, revealing reductions in crab abundances today compared to the Pleistocene. We conclude that: (1) regardless of the cause, immediate actions are required to avoid further population reductions of commercially exploited crabs in southern California, (2) predation traces are a rapid, cost-effective method to assess otherwise data-poor fisheries, and (3) the inclusion of fossil data provides key new insights for modern resource and fisheries management.

Dietary niches of creodonts and carnivorans of the late Eocene Cypress Hills Formation

Modern North American carnivorous mammal assemblages consist of species from a single clade: the Carnivora. Carnivorans once coexisted with members of other meat-eating clades, including the creodonts (Hyaenodontida and Oxyaenida). Creodonts, however, went extinct in North America during the late Eocene and early Oligocene, potentially due to niche overlap and resource competition with contemporary carnivorans. In this study, we employ a community ecology approach to understand whether the dietary niches of coexisting creodonts and carnivorans overlapped during the late Eocene (Chadronian North American Land Mammal Age), a time when creodonts were dwindling and carnivorans were diversifying. We quantify niche overlap based on inferences of diet from carnassial tooth shape estimated using Orientation Patch Count, Dirichlet's Normal Surface Energy, and linear dental measurements as well as from body mass for all species in the Calf Creek Local Fauna of Cypress Hills, Saskatchewan (Treaty 4 land). Although creodonts and carnivorans shared characteristics of their carnassial tooth shape, suggesting similar chewing mechanics and feeding habits, we find that marked differences in body size likely facilitated niche partitioning, at least between the largest creodonts and carnivorans. Calculations of prey focus masses and prey mass spectra indicate that only the smallest creodont may have experienced significant competition for prey with the coeval carnivorans. We suggest that the ultimate extinction of creodonts from North America during the late Eocene and Oligocene was unlikely to have been driven by factors related to niche overlap with carnivorans.

Projected changes in bird assemblages due to climate change in a Canadian system of protected areas

National parks often serve as a cornerstone for a country's species and ecosystem conservation efforts. However, despite the protection these sites afford, climate change is expected to drive a substantial change in their bird assemblages. We used species distribution models to predict the change in environmental suitability (i.e., how well environmental conditions explain the presence of a species) of 49 Canadian national parks during summer and winter for 434 bird species under a 2°C warming scenario, anticipated to occur in Canada around the mid-21st century. We compared these to existing species distributions in the 2010s, and classified suitability projections for each species at each park as potential extirpation, worsening, stable, improving, or potential colonisation. Across all parks, and both seasons, 70% of the projections indicate change, including a 25% turnover in summer assemblages and 30% turnover in winter assemblages. The majority of parks are projected to have increases in species richness and functional traits in winter, compared to a mix of increases and decreases in both in summer. However, some changes are expected to vary by region, such as Arctic region parks being likely to experience the most potential colonisation, while some of the Mixedwood Plains and Atlantic Maritime region parks may experience the greatest turnover and potential extirpation in summer if management actions are not taken to mitigate some of these losses. Although uncertainty exists around the precise rate and impacts of climate change, our results indicate that conservation practices that assume stationarity of environmental conditions will become untenable. We propose general guidance to help managers adapt their conservation actions to consider the potentially substantive changes in bird assemblages that are projected, including managing for persistence and change.

Informing conservation strategies with museum genomics: Long-term effects of past anthropogenic persecution on the elusive European wildcat

Like many carnivore species, European wildcats (Felis silvestris) have suffered severe anthropogenic population declines in the past, resulting in a strong population bottleneck at the beginning of the 20th century. In Germany, the species has managed to survive its near extinction in small isolated areas and is currently recolonizing former habitats owing to legal protection and concerted conservation efforts. Here, we SNP-genotyped and mtDNA-sequenced 56 historical and 650 contemporary samples to assess the impact of massive persecution on genetic diversity, population structure, and hybridization dynamics of wildcats. Spatiotemporal analyses suggest that the presumed postglacial differentiation between two genetically distinct metapopulations in Germany is in fact the result of the anthropogenic bottleneck followed by re-expansion from few secluded refugia. We found that, despite the bottleneck, populations experienced no severe genetic erosion, nor suffered from elevated inbreeding or showed signs of increased hybridization with domestic cats. Our findings have significant implications for current wildcat conservation strategies, as the data analyses show that the two presently recognized wildcat population clusters should be treated as a single conservation unit. Although current populations appear under no imminent threat from genetic factors, fostering connectivity through the implementation of forest corridors will facilitate the preservation of genetic diversity and promote long-term viability. The present study documents how museum collections can be used as essential resource for assessing long-term anthropogenic effects on natural populations, for example, regarding population structure and the delineation of appropriate conservation units, potentially informing todays' species conservation.

Silver Linings at the Dawn of a “Golden Age”

Nearly four decades after the first applications of strontium isotope analyses in archaeology and paleoecology research, it could be said that we are entering a “Golden Age”. Here, we reflect on major past developments and current strengths in strontium isotope research, as well as speculate on future directions. We review (1) the currently limited number of (but much needed) controlled feeding experiments, (2) recent advances in isoscape mapping and spatial assignment, and (3) the strength of multi-proxy approaches (including both the integration of strontium isotopes with other isotope systems and complementary techniques such as ancient DNA analyses). We also explore the integration of strontium isotope research with other types of paleoecological or archaeology data, as well as with evidence and interpretative frameworks from other fields (such as conservation ecology, conservation paleobiology or history). This blending is critical as we seek to advance the field beyond simply distinguishing local or relatively sedentary individuals from those that were non-local or highly mobile. We finish with a call for future research centered on balancing methodological developments and novel applications with critical self-reflection, deeper theoretical considerations and cross-disciplinarity.

Agricultural Water Management Using Two-Stage Channels: Performance and Policy Recommendations Based on Northern European Experiences

Conventional dredging of ditches and streams to ensure agricultural drainage and flood mitigation can have severe environmental impacts. The aim of this paper is to investigate the potential benefits of an alternative, nature-based two-stage channel (TSC) design with floodplains excavated along the main channel. Through a literature survey, investigations at Finnish field sites and expert interviews, we assessed the performance, costs, and monetary environmental benefits of TSCs in comparison to conventional dredging, as well as the bottlenecks in their financing and governance. We found evidence supporting the expected longer-term functioning of drainage as well as larger plant and fish biodiversity in TSCs compared to conventional dredging. The TSC design likely improves water quality since the floodplains retain suspended sediment and phosphorus and remove nitrogen. In the investigated case, the additional value of phosphorus retention and conservation of protected species through the TSC design was 2.4 times higher than the total costs. We demonstrate how TSCs can be made eligible for the obligatory vegetated riparian buffer of the European Union agri-environmental subsidy scheme (CAP-AES) by optimising their spatial application with respect to other buffer measures, and recommend to publicly finance their additional costs compared to conventional dredging at priority sites. Further studies on biodiversity impacts and long-term performance of two-stage channels are required.

Fossil apes and human evolution

Humans diverged from apes (chimpanzees, specifically) toward the end of the Miocene ~9.3 million to 6.5 million years ago. Understanding the origins of the human lineage (hominins) requires reconstructing the morphology, behavior, and environment of the chimpanzee-human last common ancestor. Modern hominoids (that is, humans and apes) share multiple features (for example, an orthograde body plan facilitating upright positional behaviors). However, the fossil record indicates that living hominoids constitute narrow representatives of an ancient radiation of more widely distributed, diverse species, none of which exhibit the entire suite of locomotor adaptations present in the extant relatives. Hence, some modern ape similarities might have evolved in parallel in response to similar selection pressures. Current evidence suggests that hominins originated in Africa from Miocene ape ancestors unlike any living species.

The human dimension of biodiversity changes on islands

Islands are among the last regions on Earth settled and transformed by human activities, and they provide replicated model systems for analysis of how people affect ecological functions. By analyzing 27 representative fossil pollen sequences encompassing the past 5000 years from islands globally, we quantified the rates of vegetation compositional change before and after human arrival. After human arrival, rates of turnover accelerate by a median factor of 11, with faster rates on islands colonized in the past 1500 years than for those colonized earlier. This global anthropogenic acceleration in turnover suggests that islands are on trajectories of continuing change. Strategies for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration must acknowledge the long duration of human impacts and the degree to which ecological changes today differ from prehuman dynamics.

Punctuated ecological equilibrium in mammal communities over evolutionary time scales

The study of deep-time ecological dynamics has the ability to inform conservation decisions by anticipating the behavior of ecosystems millions of years into the future. Using network analysis and an exceptional fossil dataset spanning the past 21 million years, we show that mammalian ecological assemblages undergo long periods of functional stasis, notwithstanding high taxonomic volatility due to dispersal, speciation, and extinction. Higher functional richness and diversity promoted the persistence of functional faunas despite species extinction risk being indistinguishable among these different faunas. These findings, and the large mismatch between functional and taxonomic successions, indicate that although safeguarding functional diversity may or may not minimize species losses, it would certainly enhance the persistence of ecosystem functioning in the face of future disturbances.

The rise of novelty in marine ecosystems: The Baltic Sea case

Global environmental changes have accelerated at an unprecedented rate in recent decades due to human activities. As a consequence, the incidence of novel abiotic conditions and biotic communities, which have been continuously emerging in the Earth system, has rapidly risen. Despite growing attention to the incidence and challenges posed by novelty in terrestrial ecosystems, novelty has not yet been quantified in marine ecosystems. Here, we measured for the rate of novelty (RoN) in abiotic conditions and community structure for three trophic levels, i.e., phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish, in a large marine system - the Baltic Sea. We measured RoN as the degree of dissimilarity relative to a specific spatial and temporal baseline, and contrasted this with the rate of change as a measure of within-basin change over time. We found that over the past 35 years abiotic and biotic RoN showed complex dynamics varying in time and space, depending on the baseline conditions. RoN in abiotic conditions was smaller in the open Central Baltic Sea than in the Kattegat and the more enclosed Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga, and Gulf of Finland in the north. We found a similar spatial pattern for biotic assemblages, which resulted from changes in composition and stock size. We identified sea-surface temperature and salinity as key drivers of RoN in biotic communities. Hence, future environmental changes that are expected to affect the biogeochemistry of the Baltic Sea, may favor the rise of biotic novelty. Our results highlighted the need for a deeper understanding of novelty development in marine ecosystems, including interactions between species and trophic levels, ecosystem functioning under novel abiotic conditions, and considering novelty in future management interventions.

Divergent morphological responses to millennia of climate change in two species of bats from Hall's Cave, Texas, USA

How species will respond to ongoing and future climate change is one of the most important questions facing biodiversity scientists today. The fossil record provides unparalleled insight into past ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change, but the resource remains virtually untapped for many organisms. We use geometric morphometrics and a 25,000 year fossil record to quantify changes in body size and mandible shape through time and across climate regimes for two bat species present in Quaternary paleontological deposits of central Texas: Myotis velifer, a bat distributed throughout the Southwestern US and Mexico that is still found in central Texas today, and Eptesicus fuscus, a bat widely distributed throughout North America that has been extirpated in central Texas. Because of ecogeographic rules like Bergmann's rule, which posits that endotherms are larger in colder environments, we hypothesized that both species were larger during cooler time intervals. Additionally, we hypothesized that both species would show variation in dental morphology across the studied sequence as a response to climate change. While we found a decrease in centroid size-a proxy for --body size-through time for both species, we could not establish a clear relationship between centroid size and temperature alone. However, we did find that specimens from drier environments were significantly larger than those from wetter ones. Furthermore, we found significant dental shape variation between environments reflecting different temperature levels for both species. Yet only M. velifer exhibited significant variation between environments of varying precipitation levels. This result was surprising because present-day populations of E. fuscus are highly variable across both temperature and precipitation gradients. We determined that the morphological change experienced by M. velifer through time, and between warmer and cooler temperatures, was associated with the coronoid process, condylar process, and the mandibular symphysis. These parts play a pivotal role in bite force, so changes in these features might relate to changes in diet. We show that long-term datasets derived from fossil material provide invaluable insight not only into the validity of ecogeographic rules, but also into the adaptive capacities of extant taxa when faced with environmental changes. Our results highlight diverging responses to a variety of climate factors that are relevant to consider in biodiversity research given ongoing global change.

Where the wild things were: intrinsic and extrinsic extinction predictors in the world's most depleted mammal fauna

Preventing extinctions requires understanding macroecological patterns of vulnerability or persistence. However, correlates of risk can be nonlinear, within-species risk varies geographically, and current-day threats cannot reveal drivers of past losses. We investigated factors that regulated survival or extinction in Caribbean mammals, which have experienced the globally highest level of human-caused postglacial mammalian extinctions, and included all extinct and extant Holocene island populations of non-volant species (219 survivals or extinctions across 118 islands). Extinction selectivity shows a statistically detectable and complex body mass effect, with survival probability decreasing for both mass extremes, indicating that intermediate-sized species have been more resilient. A strong interaction between mass and age of first human arrival provides quantitative evidence of larger mammals going extinct on the earliest islands colonized, revealing an extinction filter caused by past human activities. Survival probability increases on islands with lower mean elevation (mostly small cays acting as offshore refugia) and decreases with more frequent hurricanes, highlighting the risk of extreme weather events and rising sea levels to surviving species on low-lying cays. These findings demonstrate the interplay between intrinsic biology, regional ecology and specific local threats, providing insights for understanding drivers of biodiversity loss across island systems and fragmented habitats worldwide.

Spatial sampling heterogeneity limits the detectability of deep time latitudinal biodiversity gradients

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG), in which species richness decreases from tropical to polar regions, is a pervasive pattern of the modern biosphere. Although the distribution of fossil occurrences suggests this pattern has varied through deep time, the recognition of palaeobiogeographic patterns is hampered by geological and anthropogenic biases. In particular, spatial sampling heterogeneity has the capacity to impact upon the reconstruction of deep time LBGs. Here we use a simulation framework to test the detectability of three different types of LBG (flat, unimodal and bimodal) over the last 300 Myr. We show that heterogeneity in spatial sampling significantly impacts upon the detectability of genuine LBGs, with known biodiversity patterns regularly obscured after applying the spatial sampling window of fossil collections. Sampling-standardization aids the reconstruction of relative biodiversity gradients, but cannot account for artefactual absences introduced by geological and anthropogenic biases. Therefore, we argue that some previous studies might have failed to recover the ‘true’ LBG type owing to incomplete and heterogeneous sampling, particularly between 200 and 20 Ma. Furthermore, these issues also have the potential to bias global estimates of past biodiversity, as well as inhibit the recognition of extinction and radiation events.

Ecosystem engineering in the Quaternary of the West Coast of South Africa

Despite advances in our understanding of the geographic and temporal scope of the Paleolithic record, we know remarkably little about the evolutionary and ecological consequences of changes in human behavior. Recent inquiries suggest that human evolution reflects a long history of interconnections between the behavior of humans and their surrounding ecosystems (e.g., niche construction). Developing expectations to identify such phenomena is remarkably difficult because it requires understanding the multi-generational impacts of changes in behavior. These long-term dynamics require insights into the emergent phenomena that alter selective pressures over longer time periods which are not possible to observe, and are also not intuitive based on observations derived from ethnographic time scales. Generative models show promise for probing these potentially unexpected consequences of human-environment interaction. Changes in the uses of landscapes may have long term implications for the environments that hominins occupied. We explore other potential proxies of behavior and examine how modeling may provide expectations for a variety of phenomena.

Changes in the large carnivore community structure of the Judean Desert in connection to Holocene human settlement dynamics

Investigating historical anthropogenic impacts on faunal communities is key to understanding present patterns of biodiversity and holds important implications for conservation biology. While several studies have demonstrated the human role in the extinction of large herbivores, effective methods to study human interference on large carnivores in the past are limited by the small number of carnivoran remains in the paleozoological record. Here, we integrate a systematic paleozoological survey of biogenic cave assemblages with the archaeological and paleoenvironmental records of the Judean Desert, to reveal historical changes in the large carnivore community. Our results show a late Holocene (~ 3400 years ago) faunal reassembly characterized by the diminishment of the dominant large carnivoran, the Arabian leopard (Panthera pardus sbsp. nimr), and the spread of the Syrian striped hyena (Hyaena hyaena sbsp. syriaca). We suggest that increased hunting pressure in combination with regional aridification were responsible for the decrease in the number of leopards, while the introduction of domestic animals and settlement refuse brought new scavenging opportunities for hyenas. The recent extirpation of leopards from the region has been a final note to the Holocene human impact on the ecosystem.

Historical Landscape Use of Migratory Caribou: New Insights From Old Antlers

Accumulations of shed caribou antlers (Rangifer tarandus) are valuable resources for expanding the temporal scope with which we evaluate seasonal landscape use of herds. Female caribou shed their antlers within days of giving birth, thus marking calving ground locations. Antler geochemistry (87Sr/86Sr) reflects the isotopic signature of regions used during antler growth, thereby providing data on a second component of seasonal landscape use. Here, we evaluate shed caribou antlers from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska. The Central and Eastern regions of the Coastal Plain are calving grounds for the Porcupine Caribou Herd, while the Western Coastal Plain supports calving by the Central Arctic Herd. We found that antler 87Sr/86Sr from the Central and Eastern Coastal Plain were isotopically indistinguishable, while antler 87Sr/86Sr from the Western Coastal Plain was significantly smaller. For each region, we compared isotopic data for “recent” antlers, which overlap the bulk of standardized state and federal caribou monitoring (early 1980s and younger), with “historical” antlers shed in years predating these records (from the 1300s to the 1970s). For Porcupine Herd females calving in the Arctic Refuge, comparisons of antler 87Sr/86Sr through time indicate that summer ranges have been consistent since at least the 1960s. However, changes between historical and recent antler 87Sr/86Sr for the Central Arctic Herd indicate a shift in summer landscape use after the late 1970s. The timing of this shift is coincident with multiple factors including increased infrastructural development in their range related to hydrocarbon extraction. Accumulations of shed caribou antlers and their isotope geochemistry extend modern datasets by decades to centuries and provide valuable baseline data for evaluating potential anthropogenic and other influences on caribou migration and landscape use.

Fire and biodiversity in the Anthropocene

Fire has been a source of global biodiversity for millions of years. However, interactions with anthropogenic drivers such as climate change, land use, and invasive species are changing the nature of fire activity and its impacts. We review how such changes are threatening species with extinction and transforming terrestrial ecosystems. Conservation of Earth's biological diversity will be achieved only by recognizing and responding to the critical role of fire. In the Anthropocene, this requires that conservation planning explicitly includes the combined effects of human activities and fire regimes. Improved forecasts for biodiversity must also integrate the connections among people, fire, and ecosystems. Such integration provides an opportunity for new actions that could revolutionize how society sustains biodiversity in a time of changing fire activity.

Comparison of environmental inference approaches for ecometric analyses: Using hypsodonty to estimate precipitation

Ecometrics is the study of community-level functional trait-environment relationships. We use ecometric analyses to estimate paleoenvironment and to investigate community-level functional changes through time.We evaluate four methods that have been used or have the potential to be used in ecometric analyses for estimating paleoenvironment to determine whether there have been systematic differences in paleoenvironmental estimation due to choice of the estimation method. Specifically, we evaluated linear regression, polynomial regression, nearest neighbor, and maximum-likelihood methods to explore the predictive ability of the relationship for a well-known ecometric dataset of mammalian herbivore hypsodonty metrics (molar tooth crown to root height ratio) and annual precipitation. Each method was applied to 43 Pleistocene fossil sites and compared to annual precipitation from global climate models. Sites were categorized as glacial or interglacial, and paleoprecipitation estimates were compared to the appropriate model.Estimation methods produce results that are highly correlated with log precipitation and estimates from the other methods (p < 0.001). Differences between estimated precipitation and observed precipitation are not significantly different across the four methods, but maximum likelihood produces the most accurate estimates of precipitation. When applied to paleontological sites, paleoprecipitation estimates align more closely with glacial global climate models than with interglacial models regardless of the age of the site.Each method has constraints that are important to consider when designing ecometric analyses to avoid misinterpretations when ecometric relationships are applied to the paleontological record. We show interglacial fauna estimates of paleoprecipitation more closely match glacial global climate models. This is likely because of the anthropogenic effects on community reassembly in the Holocene.