Getting ahead of climate change for ecological adaptation and resilience

Lessons from Ethiopian coffee landscapes for global conservation in a post-wild world

The reality for conservation of biodiversity across our planet is that all ecosystems are modified by humans in some way or another. Thus, biodiversity conservation needs to be implemented in multifunctional landscapes. In this paper we use a fascinating coffee-dominated landscape in southwest Ethiopia as our lens to derive general lessons for biodiversity conservation in a post-wild world. Considering a hierarchy of scales from genes to multi-species interactions and social-ecological system contexts, we focus on (i) threats to the genetic diversity of crop wild relatives, (ii) the mechanisms behind trade-offs between biodiversity and agricultural yields, (iii) underexplored species interactions suppressing pest and disease levels, (iv) how the interactions of climate change and land-use change sometimes provide opportunities for restoration, and finally, (v) how to work closely with stakeholders to identify scenarios for sustainable development. The story on how the ecology and evolution of coffee within its indigenous distribution shape biodiversity conservation from genes to social-ecological systems can inspire us to view other landscapes with fresh eyes. The ubiquitous presence of human-nature interactions demands proactive, creative solutions to foster biodiversity conservation not only in remote protected areas but across entire landscapes inhabited by people.

Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types

Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Microgeographic variation in demography and thermal regimes stabilize regional abundance of a widespread freshwater fish

Predicting the persistence of species under climate change is an increasingly important objective in ecological research and management. However, biotic and abiotic heterogeneity can drive asynchrony in population responses at small spatial scales, complicating species-level assessments. For widely distributed species consisting of many fragmented populations, such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), understanding the drivers of asynchrony in population dynamics can improve the predictions of range-wide climate impacts. We analyzed the demographic time series from mark-recapture surveys of 11 natural brook trout populations in eastern Canada over 13 years to examine the extent, drivers, and consequences of fine-scale population variation. The focal populations were genetically differentiated, occupied a small area (~25 km2 ) with few human impacts, and experienced similar climate conditions. Recruitment was highly asynchronous, weakly related to climate variables and showed population-specific relationships with other demographic processes, generating diverse population dynamics. In contrast, individual growth was mostly synchronized among populations and driven by a shared positive relationship with stream temperature. Outputs from population-specific models were unrelated to four of the five hypothesized drivers (recruitment, growth, reproductive success, phylogenetic distance), but variation in groundwater inputs strongly influenced stream temperature regimes and stock-recruitment relationships. Finally, population asynchrony generated a portfolio effect that stabilized regional species abundance. Our results demonstrated that population demographics and habitat diversity at microgeographic scales can play a significant role in moderating species responses to climate change. Moreover, we suggest that the absence of human activities within study streams preserved natural habitat variation and contributed to asynchrony in brook trout abundance, while the small study area eased monitoring and increased the likelihood of detecting asynchrony. Therefore, anthropogenic habitat degradation, landscape context, and spatial scale must be considered when developing management strategies to monitor and maintain populations that are diverse, stable, and resilient to climate change.

Pathways for achieving conservation targets under metacoupled anthropogenic disturbances

Enhancing connectivity between protected areas stands as a paramount objective in advancing global conservation goals, particularly in coastal regions grappling with escalating human disruptions. However, little attention has been given to quantitative assessment of human-nature interactions within and among protected areas. Here, we endeavored to model the connectivity between protected areas in rapidly urbanizing regions in China, drawing on insights from the framework of metacoupling based on connected corridors at short and long distances. In alignment with the overarching global conservation aim of increasing the overall coverage of protected areas, we found that adding new site to the protected area system yields superior connectivity gains compared to merely expanding the boundaries of the existing sites. Within the connectivity network between protected areas, we discerned specific sites acting as stepping stones, pivotal in enhancing connectivity among the chosen protected areas. Our study propounds a pragmatic methodology for prioritizing local protection initiatives and underscores the criticality of incorporating connectivity conservation strategies. This approach is vital for attaining regional biodiversity targets, given the dual perspective encompassing both human activities and the natural environment, particularly in the face of mounting anthropogenic disturbances.

Breeding and Selecting Corals Resilient to Global Warming

Selective breeding of resilient organisms is an emerging topic in marine conservation. It can help us predict how species will adapt in the future and how we can help restore struggling populations effectively in the present. Scleractinian corals represent a potential tractable model system given their widescale phenotypic plasticity across fitness-related traits and a reproductive life history based on mass synchronized spawning. Here, I explore the justification for breeding in corals, identify underutilized pathways of acclimation, and highlight avenues for quantitative targeted breeding from the coral host and symbiont perspective. Specifically, the facilitation of enhanced heat tolerance by targeted breeding of plasticity mechanisms is underutilized. Evidence from theoretical genetics identifies potential pitfalls, including inattention to physical and genetic characteristics of the receiving environment. Three criteria for breeding emerge from this synthesis: selection from warm, variable reefs that have survived disturbance. This information will be essential to protect what we have and restore what we can.

Cross-scale assessments of the impacts and resilience of subtropical montane cloud forests to chronic seasonal droughts and episodic typhoons

Montane cloud forests (MCFs) are ecosystems frequently immersed in fog and are vital for the terrestrial hydrological cycle and biodiversity hotspots. However, the potential impacts of climate change, particularly intensified droughts and typhoons, on the persistence of ecosystems remain unclear. Our study conducted cross-scale assessments using 6-year (2016-2021) ground litterfall and 21-year (2001-2021) satellite greenness data (the Enhanced Vegetation Index [EVI] and the EVI anomaly change [ΔEVI% ]), gross primary productivity anomaly change (ΔGPP% ), and meteorological variables (the standardized precipitation index [SPI] and wind speed). We found a positive correlation between summer EVI and ΔGPP% with the SPI-3 (3-month time scale), while winter litterfall showed a negative correlation. Maximum typhoon daily wind speed was negatively correlated with summer and the monthly ΔEVI% and ΔGPP% . These findings suggest vegetation damage and productivity loss were related to drought and typhoon intensities. Furthermore, our analysis highlighted that chronic seasonal droughts had more pronounced impacts on MCFs than severe typhoons, implying that high precipitation and frequent fog immersion do not necessarily mitigate the ramifications of water deficit on MCFs but might render MCFs more sensitive and vulnerable to drought. A significant negative correlation between the summer and winter ΔEVI% and ΔGPP% of the same year, suggesting disturbance severity during summer may facilitate vegetation regrowth and carbon accumulation in the subsequent winter. This finding may be attributed to the ecological resilience of MCFs, which enables them to recover from the previous summer. In the long-term, our results indicated an increase in vegetation resilience over two decades in MCFs, likely driven by rising temperatures and elevated carbon dioxide levels. However, the enhancement of resilience might be overshadowed by the potential intensified droughts and typhoons in the future, potentially causing severe damage and insufficient recovery times for MCFs, thus raising concerns about uncertainties regarding their sustained resilience.

Habitat modulates population-level responses of freshwater salmon growth to a century of change in climate and competition

The impacts of climate change are widespread and threaten natural systems globally. Yet, within regions, heterogeneous physical landscapes can differentially filter climate, leading to local response diversity. For example, it is possible that while freshwater lakes are sensitive to climate change, they may exhibit a diversity of thermal responses owing to their unique morphology, which in turn can differentially affect the growth and survival of vulnerable biota such as fishes. In particular, salmonids are cold-water fishes with complex life histories shaped by diverse freshwater habitats that are sensitive to warming temperatures. Here we examine the influence of habitat on the growth of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in nursery lakes of Canada's Skeena River watershed over a century of change in regional temperature and intraspecific competition. We found that freshwater growth has generally increased over the last century. While growth tended to be higher in years with relatively higher summer air temperatures (a proxy for lake temperature), long-term increases in growth appear largely influenced by reduced competition. However, habitat played an important role in modulating the effect of high temperature. Specifically, growth was positively associated with rising temperatures in relatively deep (>50 m) nursery lakes, whereas warmer temperatures were not associated with a change in growth for fish among shallow lakes. The influence of temperature on growth also was modulated by glacier extent whereby the growth of fish from lakes situated in watersheds with little (i.e., <5%) glacier cover increased with rising temperatures, but decreased with rising temperatures for fish in lakes within more glaciated watersheds. Maintaining the integrity of an array of freshwater habitats-and the processes that generate and maintain them-will help foster a diverse climate-response portfolio for important fish species, which in turn can ensure that salmon watersheds are resilient to future environmental change.

Seabirds boost coral reef resilience

Global climate change threatens tropical coral reefs, yet local management can influence resilience. While increasing anthropogenic nutrients reduce coral resistance and recovery, it is unknown how the loss, or restoration, of natural nutrient flows affects reef recovery. Here, we test how natural seabird-derived nutrient subsidies, which are threatened by invasive rats, influence the mechanisms and patterns of reef recovery following an extreme marine heatwave using multiyear field experiments, repeated surveys, and Bayesian modeling. Corals transplanted from rat to seabird islands quickly assimilated seabird-derived nutrients, fully acclimating to new nutrient conditions within 3 years. Increased seabird-derived nutrients, in turn, caused a doubling of coral growth rates both within individuals and across entire reefs. Seabirds were also associated with faster recovery time of Acropora coral cover (<4 years) and more dynamic recovery trajectories of entire benthic communities. We conclude that restoring seabird populations and associated nutrient pathways may foster greater coral reef resilience through enhanced growth and recovery rates of corals.

Mining stakes claim on salmon futures as glaciers retreat

Future ecological value of emerging habitats must be considered as climate change transforms the planet.

Surviving hot summer: Roles of phenotypic plasticity of intertidal mobile species considering microhabitat environmental heterogeneity

For species inhabiting warming and variable thermal environment, coordinated changes in heat tolerance to temperature fluctuations, which largely depend on phenotypic plasticity, are pivotal in buffering high temperatures. Determining the roles of phenotypic plasticity in wild populations and common garden experiments help us understand how organisms survive hot summer and the warming world. We thus monitored the operative temperature of the intertidal limpets Cellana toreuma in both emergent rock and tidal pool microhabitats from June to October 2021, determined the variations of upper thermal limits of short-term acclimated and long-term acclimated limpets from different microhabitats (emergent rock and tidal pool), and further calculated the relationship between the upper thermal limits and acclimation capacity. Our results indicated that living on the emergent rock, limpets encountered more extreme events in summer. For the short-term acclimated samples, limpets on the emergent rock exhibited obvious variations of sublethal thermal limit (i.e., Arrhenius Break Point of cardiac performance, ABT) during summer months, however, this variation of ABT was absent in the limpets in the tidal pool. After the laboratory long-term acclimation, the ABTs and FLTs (Flat Line Temperature of cardiac performance, as an indicator of lethal temperature) of limpets both on the rock and in the tidal pool increased significantly in October, implying the potential existence of selection during the hot summer. Our results further showed that environmental temperature was an important driver of phenotypic plasticity. This study highlighted the changes in the thermal tolerance of intertidal limpets during summer in different microhabitats.

Opportunities to advance the synthesis of ecology and evolution

Despite decades of research on the interactions between ecology and evolution, opportunities still remain to further integrate the two disciplines, especially when considering multispecies systems. Here, we discuss two such opportunities. First, the traditional emphasis on the distinction between evolutionary and ecological processes should be further relaxed as it is particularly unhelpful in the study of microbial communities, where the very notion of species is hard to define. Second, key processes of evolutionary theory such as adaptation should be exported to hierarchical levels higher than populations to make sense of biodiversity dynamics. Together, we argue that broadening our perspective of eco-evolutionary dynamics to be more inclusive of all biodiversity, both phylogenetically and hierarchically, will open up fertile new research directions and help us to address one of the major scientific challenges of our time, that is, to understand and predict changes in biodiversity in the face of rapid environmental change.

How can physiology best contribute to wildlife conservation in a warming world?

Global warming is now predicted to exceed 1.5°C by 2033 and 2°C by the end of the 21st century. This level of warming and the associated environmental variability are already increasing pressure on natural and human systems. Here we emphasize the role of physiology in the light of the latest assessment of climate warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We describe how physiology can contribute to contemporary conservation programmes. We focus on thermal responses of animals, but we acknowledge that the impacts of climate change are much broader phylogenetically and environmentally. A physiological contribution would encompass environmental monitoring, coupled with measuring individual sensitivities to temperature change and upscaling these to ecosystem level. The latest version of the widely accepted Conservation Standards designed by the Conservation Measures Partnership includes several explicit climate change considerations. We argue that physiology has a unique role to play in addressing these considerations. Moreover, physiology can be incorporated by institutions and organizations that range from international bodies to national governments and to local communities, and in doing so, it brings a mechanistic approach to conservation and the management of biological resources.

The Concept of One Health for Allergic Diseases and Asthma

The worldwide prevalence of allergic disease is rising as a result of complex gene-environment interactions that shape the immune system and host response. Climate change and loss of biodiversity are existential threats to humans, animals, plants, and ecosystems. While there is significant progress in the development of targeted therapeutic options to treat allergies and asthma, these approaches are inadequate to meet the challenges faced by climate change. The exposomic approach is needed with the recognition of the bidirectional effect between human beings and the environment. All stakeholders need to work together toward mitigating the effects of climate change and promoting a One Health concept in order to decrease the burden of asthma and allergy and to improve immune health. Healthcare professionals should strive to incorporate One Health counseling, environmental health precepts, and advocacy into their practice.

Phenological shifts and mismatch with marine productivity vary among Pacific salmon species and populations

Global climate change is shifting the timing of life-cycle events, sometimes resulting in phenological mismatches between predators and prey. Phenological shifts and subsequent mismatches may be consistent across populations, or they could vary unpredictably across populations within the same species. For anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), juveniles from thousands of locally adapted populations migrate from diverse freshwater habitats to the Pacific Ocean every year. Both the timing of freshwater migration and ocean arrival, relative to nearshore prey (phenological match/mismatch), can control marine survival and population dynamics. Here we examined phenological change of 66 populations across six anadromous Pacific salmon species throughout their range in western North America with the longest time series spanning 1951-2019. We show that different salmon species have different rates of phenological change but that there was substantial within-species variation that was not correlated with changing environmental conditions or geographic patterns. Moreover, outmigration phenologies have not tracked shifts in the timing of marine primary productivity, potentially increasing the frequency of future phenological mismatches. Understanding population responses to mismatches with prey are an important part of characterizing overall population-specific climate vulnerability.