Effect of population viral load on prospective HIV incidence in a hyperendemic rural African community

Moving beyond hotspots of HIV prevalence to geospatial hotspots of UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in sub-Saharan Africa

The HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa displays a varied geographical distribution, with particular regions termed as HIV hotspots due to a higher prevalence of infection. Addressing these hotspots is essential for controlling the epidemic. However, these regions, influenced by historical factors, challenge standard interventions. Legacy effects-the lasting impact of past events-play a substantial role in the persistence of these hotspots. To address this challenge of the standard interventions, we propose a shift towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets. Spatial analysis of HIV viral load and antiretroviral therapy coverage can provide a more comprehensive perspective on the epidemic's dynamics. Studies in Zambia and Zimbabwe, using this approach, have revealed disparities in HIV care metrics across regions. By focusing on the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets, more effective control strategies can be designed, with consideration of both historical and current factors. This approach would offer a solution-oriented strategy, emphasising tailored interventions based on specific regional needs.

Geospatial and temporal mapping of detectable HIV-1 viral loads amid dolutegravir rollout in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

South Africa rolled out dolutegravir (DTG) as first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in December 2019 to overcome high rates of pretreatment non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor drug resistance. In the context of transition to DTG-based ART, this study spatiotemporally analysed detectable HIV viral loads (VLs) prior to- and following DTG rollout in public-sector healthcare facilities in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province, the epicentre of the HIV epidemic in South Africa. We retrospectively curated a HIV VL database using de-identified routine VL data obtained from the National Health Laboratory Service for the period January 2018 to June 2022. We analysed trends in HIV viraemia and mapped median log10 HIV VLs per facility on inverse distance weighted interpolation maps. We used Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis to identify geospatial HIV hotspots. We obtained 7,639,978 HIV VL records from 736 healthcare facilities across KZN, of which 1,031,171 (13.5%) had detectable VLs (i.e., VLs ≥400 copies/millilitre (mL)). Of those with detectable VLs, we observed an overall decrease in HIV VLs between 2018 and 2022 (median 4.093 log10 copies/mL; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.087-4.100 to median 3.563 log10 copies/mL; CI 3.553-3.572), p<0.01 (median test). The downward trend in proportion of HIV VLs ≥1000 copies/mL over time was accompanied by an inverse upward trend in the proportion of HIV VLs between 400 and 999 copies/mL. Moreover, specific coastal and northern districts of KZN had persistently higher VLs, with emergent hotspots demonstrating spatial clustering of high median log10 HIV VLs. The overall decrease in HIV VLs over time shows good progress towards achieving UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in KZN, South Africa. The DTG-transition has been associated with a reduction in VLs, however, there is a need for pre-emptive monitoring of low-level viraemia. Furthermore, our findings highlight that specific districts will need intensified HIV care despite DTG rollout.

Age and gender profiles of HIV infection burden and viraemia: novel metrics for HIV epidemic control in African populations with high antiretroviral therapy coverage

Introduction

To prioritize and tailor interventions for ending AIDS by 2030 in Africa, it is important to characterize the population groups in which HIV viraemia is concentrating.

Methods

We analysed HIV testing and viral load data collected between 2013-2019 from the open, population-based Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, to estimate HIV seroprevalence and population viral suppression over time by gender, one-year age bands and residence in inland and fishing communities. All estimates were standardized to the underlying source population using census data. We then assessed 95-95-95 targets in their ability to identify the populations in which viraemia concentrates.

Results

Following the implementation of Universal Test and Treat, the proportion of individuals with viraemia decreased from 4.9% (4.6%-5.3%) in 2013 to 1.9% (1.7%-2.2%) in 2019 in inland communities and from 19.1% (18.0%-20.4%) in 2013 to 4.7% (4.0%-5.5%) in 2019 in fishing communities. Viraemia did not concentrate in the age and gender groups furthest from achieving 95-95-95 targets. Instead, in both inland and fishing communities, women aged 25-29 and men aged 30-34 were the 5-year age groups that contributed most to population-level viraemia in 2019, despite these groups being close to or had already achieved 95-95-95 targets.

Conclusions

The 95-95-95 targets provide a useful benchmark for monitoring progress towards HIV epidemic control, but do not contextualize underlying population structures and so may direct interventions towards groups that represent a marginal fraction of the population with viraemia.

Convergence of HIV and non-communicable disease epidemics: geospatial mapping of the unmet health needs in an HIV hyperendemic community in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

As people living with HIV (PLHIV) are experiencing longer survival, the co-occurrence of HIV and non-communicable diseases has become a public health priority. In response to this emerging challenge, we aimed to characterise the spatial structure of convergence of chronic health conditions in an HIV hyperendemic community in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, we used data from a comprehensive population-based disease survey conducted in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, which collected data on HIV, diabetes and hypertension. We implemented a novel health needs scale to categorise participants as: diagnosed and well-controlled (Needs Score 1), diagnosed and suboptimally controlled (Score 2), diagnosed but not engaged in care (Score 3) or undiagnosed and uncontrolled (Score 4). Scores 2-4 were indicative of unmet health needs. We explored the geospatial structure of unmet health needs using different spatial clustering methods.

RESULTS

The analytical sample comprised 18 041 individuals. We observed a similar spatial structure for HIV among those with combined needs Score 2-3 (diagnosed but uncontrolled) and Score 4 (undiagnosed and uncontrolled), with most PLHIV with unmet needs clustered in the southern urban and peri-urban areas. Conversely, a high prevalence of need Scores 2 and 3 for diabetes and hypertension was mostly distributed in the more rural central and northern part of the surveillance area. A high prevalence of need Score 4 for diabetes and hypertension was mostly distributed in the rural southern part of the surveillance area. Multivariate clustering analysis revealed a significant overlap of all three diseases in individuals with undiagnosed and uncontrolled diseases (unmet needs Score 4) in the southern part of the catchment area.

CONCLUSIONS

In an HIV hyperendemic community in South Africa, areas with the highest needs for PLHIV with undiagnosed and uncontrolled disease are also areas with the highest burden of unmet needs for other chronic health conditions, such as diabetes and hypertension. Our study has revealed remarkable differences in the distribution of health needs across the rural to urban continuum even within this relatively small study site. The identification and prioritisation of geographically clustered vulnerable communities with unmet health needs for both HIV and non-communicable diseases provide a basis for policy and implementation strategies to target communities with the highest health needs.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted: whereas HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one-third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programmes to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted, while HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programs to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

Population-level prevalence of detectable HIV viremia in people who inject drugs (PWID) in Ukraine: Implications for HIV treatment and case finding interventions

Achievement of viral load suppression among people living with HIV is one of the most important goals for effective HIV epidemic response. In Ukraine, people who inject drugs (PWID) experience the largest HIV burden. At the same time, this group disproportionally missed out in HIV treatment services. We performed a secondary data analysis of the national-wide cross-sectional bio-behavioral surveillance survey among PWID to assess the population-level prevalence of detectable HIV viremia and identify key characteristics that explain the outcome. Overall, 11.4% of PWID or 52.6% of HIV-positive PWID had a viral load level that exceeded the 1,000 copies/mL threshold. In the group of HIV-positive PWID, the detectable viremia was attributed to younger age, monthly income greater than minimum wage, lower education level, and non-usage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and opioid agonistic therapy. Compared with HIV-negative PWID, the HIV-positive group with detectable viremia was more likely to be female, represented the middle age group (35-49 years old), had low education and monthly income levels, used opioid drugs, practiced risky injection behavior, and had previous incarceration history. Implementing the HIV case identification and ART linkage interventions focused on the most vulnerable PWID sub-groups might help closing the gaps in ART service coverage and increasing the proportion of HIV-positive PWID with viral load suppression.

High Genetic Diversity of HIV-1 and Active Transmission Clusters among Male-to-Male Sexual Contacts (MMSCs) in Zhuhai, China

Monitoring genetic diversity and recent HIV infections (RHIs) is critical for understanding HIV epidemiology. Here, we report HIV-1 genetic diversity and RHIs in blood samples from 190 HIV-positive MMSCs in Zhuhai, China. MMSCs with newly reported HIV were enrolled from January 2020 to June 2022. A nested PCR was performed to amplify the HIV polymerase gene fragments at HXB2 positions 2604-3606. We constructed genetic transmission network at both 0.5% and 1.5% distance thresholds using the Tamura-Nei93 model. RHIs were identified using a recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) combining limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay (LAg-EIA) assay with clinical data. The results revealed that 19.5% (37/190) were RHIs and 48.4% (92/190) were CRF07_BC. Two clusters were identified at a 0.5% distance threshold. Among them, one was infected with CRF07_BC for the long term, and the other was infected with CRF55_01B recently. We identified a total of 15 clusters at a 1.5% distance threshold. Among them, nine were infected with CRF07_BC subtype, and RHIs were found in 38.8% (19/49) distributed in eight genetic clusters. We identified a large active transmission cluster (n = 10) infected with a genetic variant, CRF79_0107. The multivariable logistic regression model showed that clusters were more likely to be RHIs (adjusted OR: 3.64, 95% CI: 1.51~9.01). The RHI algorithm can help to identify recent or ongoing transmission clusters where the prevention tools are mostly needed. Prompt public health measures are needed to contain the further spread of active transmission clusters.

Community- and individual-level correlates of HIV incidence in HPTN 071 (PopART)

INTRODUCTION

Universal HIV testing and treatment aims to identify all people living with HIV and offer them treatment, decreasing the number of individuals with unsuppressed HIV and thus reducing HIV transmission. Longitudinal follow-up of individuals with and without HIV in a cluster-randomized trial of communities allowed for the examination of community- and individual-level measures of HIV risk and HIV incidence.

METHODS

HPTN 071 (PopART) was a three-arm cluster-randomized trial conducted between 2013 and 2018 that evaluated the use of two combination HIV prevention strategies implemented at the community level to reduce HIV incidence compared to the standard of care. The trial, conducted in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa, measured HIV incidence over 36 months in a population cohort of ∼2000 randomly selected adults per community aged 18-44. Multilevel models were used to assess the association between HIV incidence and community- and individual-level socio-demographic and behavioural risk factors, as well as prevalence of detectable virus (PDV) defined as the estimated proportion of the community with unsuppressed viral load.

RESULTS

Overall HIV incidence was 1.49/100 person-years. Communities with less financial wealth and communities with more individuals reporting having sex partners outside of the community or two or more sexual partners had higher HIV incidence. PDV at 2 years of study was 6.8% and was strongly associated with HIV incidence: for every 50% relative reduction in community PDV, there was a 49% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 37%-58%, p < 0.001) relative decrease in HIV incidence. At the individual level; socio-economic status, AUDIT score, medical male circumcision and certain sexual behaviours were associated with HIV risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Using data from the PopART randomized trial, we found several associations of HIV incidence with community-level measures reflecting the sexual behaviour and socio-economic make-up of each community. We also found a strong association between community PDV and HIV incidence supporting the use of PDV as a tool for monitoring progress in controlling the epidemic. Lastly, we found significant individual-level factors of HIV risk that are generally consistent with previous HIV epidemiological research. These results have the potential to identify high high-incidence communities, inform structural-level interventions, and optimize individual-level interventions for HIV prevention.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01900977, HPTN 071 [PopArt].

Population-level viremia predicts HIV incidence at the community level across the Universal Testing and Treatment Trials in eastern and southern Africa

Universal HIV testing and treatment (UTT) strategies aim to optimize population-level benefits of antiretroviral treatment. Between 2012 and 2018, four large community randomized trials were conducted in eastern and southern Africa. While their results were broadly consistent showing decreased population-level viremia reduces HIV incidence, it remains unclear how much HIV incidence can be reduced by increasing suppression among people living with HIV (PLHIV). We conducted a pooled analysis across the four UTT trials. Leveraging data from 105 communities in five countries, we evaluated the linear relationship between i) population-level viremia (prevalence of non-suppression-defined as plasma HIV RNA >500 or >400 copies/mL-among all adults, irrespective of HIV status) and HIV incidence; and ii) prevalence of non-suppression among PLHIV and HIV incidence, using parametric g-computation. HIV prevalence, measured in 257 929 persons, varied from 2 to 41% across the communities; prevalence of non-suppression among PLHIV, measured in 31 377 persons, from 3 to 70%; population-level viremia, derived from HIV prevalence and non-suppression, from < 1% to 25%; and HIV incidence, measured over 345 844 person-years (PY), from 0.03/100PY to 3.46/100PY. Decreases in population-level viremia were strongly associated with decreased HIV incidence in all trials (between 0.45/100PY and 1.88/100PY decline in HIV incidence per 10 percentage points decline in viremia). Decreases in non-suppression among PLHIV were also associated with decreased HIV incidence in all trials (between 0.06/100PY and 0.17/100PY decline in HIV incidence per 10 percentage points decline in non-suppression). Our results support both the utility of population-level viremia as a predictor of incidence, and thus a tool for targeting prevention interventions, and the ability of UTT approaches to reduce HIV incidence by increasing viral suppression. Implementation of universal HIV testing approaches, coupled with interventions to leverage linkage to treatment, adapted to local contexts, can reduce HIV acquisition at population level.

The epidemiology of HIV population viral load in twelve sub-Saharan African countries

BACKGROUND

We examined the epidemiology and transmission potential of HIV population viral load (VL) in 12 sub-Saharan African countries.

METHODS

We analyzed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessments (PHIAs), large national household-based surveys conducted between 2015 and 2019 in Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Eswatini, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Blood-based biomarkers included HIV serology, recency of HIV infection, and VL. We estimated the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) with suppressed viral load (<1,000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) and with unsuppressed viral load (viremic), the prevalence of unsuppressed HIV (population viremia), sex-specific HIV transmission ratios (number female incident HIV-1 infections/number unsuppressed male PLHIV per 100 persons-years [PY] and vice versa) and examined correlations between a variety of VL metrics and incident HIV. Country sample sizes ranged from 10,016 (Eswatini) to 30,637 (Rwanda); estimates were weighted and restricted to participants 15 years and older.

RESULTS

The proportion of female PLHIV with viral suppression was higher than that among males in all countries, however, the number of unsuppressed females outnumbered that of unsuppressed males in all countries due to higher overall female HIV prevalence, with ratios ranging from 1.08 to 2.10 (median: 1.43). The spatial distribution of HIV seroprevalence, viremia prevalence, and number of unsuppressed adults often differed substantially within the same countries. The 1% and 5% of PLHIV with the highest VL on average accounted for 34% and 66%, respectively, of countries' total VL. HIV transmission ratios varied widely across countries and were higher for male-to-female (range: 2.3-28.3/100 PY) than for female-to-male transmission (range: 1.5-10.6/100 PY). In all countries mean log10 VL among unsuppressed males was higher than that among females. Correlations between VL measures and incident HIV varied, were weaker for VL metrics among females compared to males and were strongest for the number of unsuppressed PLHIV per 100 HIV-negative adults (R2 = 0.92).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite higher proportions of viral suppression, female unsuppressed PLHIV outnumbered males in all countries examined. Unsuppressed male PLHIV have consistently higher VL and a higher risk of transmitting HIV than females. Just 5% of PLHIV account for almost two-thirds of countries' total VL. Population-level VL metrics help monitor the epidemic and highlight key programmatic gaps in these African countries.

Integration of a geospatially targeted community-based testing approach with respondent-driven sampling to identify people who inject drugs living with HIV and HCV in Patti and Gorakhpur, India

BACKGROUND

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS), a network recruitment approach, is effective at reaching people who inject drugs (PWID), but other strategies may be needed to reach PWID at risk or living with HIV and/or Hepatitis C (HCV). We examined the impact of integrating geospatially targeted community-based HIV/HCV testing with an RDS survey.

METHODS

PWID were recruited between 2019 and 2021 in Patti and Gorakhpur, India, in a two-phased approach for identifying PWID living with HIV/HCV. Phase 1 was an RDS survey, in which participants reported injection venues. Venues with the highest prevalence of HIV/HCV viremia were selected for Phase 2: community-based testing. All participants underwent rapid HIV and HCV testing and viral load quantification. Using Pearson's chi-squared test, two-sided exact significance tests, and t-tests, we compared prevalence and identification rates for each of the primary outcomes: the number of PWID 1) living with HIV/HCV, 2) undiagnosed, and 3) viremic.

RESULTS

Both approaches identified large numbers of PWID (n∼500 each; N=2011) who were living with HIV/HCV and had transmission potential (i.e., detectable viremia). The community-based approach identified a higher proportion of individuals living with HCV (76.4% vs. 69.6% in Gorakhpur and 36.3% vs. 29.0% in Patti). Community-based testing was also faster at identifying PWID with detectable HIV viremia. Both approaches identified PWID with varying demographic characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Community-based testing was more efficient than RDS overall, but both may be required to reach PWID of varying characteristics. Surveillance should collect data on injection venues to facilitate community-based testing and maximize case identification.

Convergence of HIV and non-communicable disease epidemics: Geospatial mapping of the unmet health needs in a HIV Hyperendemic South African community

Background

As people living with HIV (PLHIV) are experiencing longer survival, the co-occurrence of HIV and non-communicable diseases has become a public health priority. In response to this emerging challenge, we aimed to characterize the spatial structure of convergence of chronic health conditions in a HIV hyperendemic community in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Methods

We utilized data from a comprehensive population-based disease survey conducted in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, which collected data on HIV, diabetes, and hypertension. We implemented a novel health needs scale to categorize participants as: diagnosed and well-controlled (Needs Score 1), diagnosed and sub-optimally controlled (Score 2), diagnosed but not engaged in care (Score 3), or undiagnosed and uncontrolled (Score 4). Scores 2-4 were indicative of unmet health needs. We explored the geospatial structure of unmet health needs using different spatial clustering methods.

Findings

The analytical sample comprised of 18,041 individuals. We observed a similar spatial structure for HIV among those with a combined needs Score 2-3 (diagnosed but uncontrolled) and Score 4 (undiagnosed and uncontrolled), with most PLHIV with unmet needs clustered in the southern peri-urban area, which was relatively densely populated within the surveillance area. Multivariate clustering analysis revealed a significant overlap of all three diseases in individuals with undiagnosed and uncontrolled diseases (unmet needs Score 4) in the southern part of the catchment area.

Interpretation

In a HIV hyperendemic community in South Africa, areas with the highest needs for PLHIV with undiagnosed and uncontrolled disease are also areas with the highest burden of unmet needs for other chronic health conditions, such as diabetes and hypertension. The identification and prioritization of geographically clustered vulnerable communities with unmet health needs for both HIV and non-communicable diseases provide a basis for policy and implementation strategies to target communities with the highest health needs.

Funding

Research reported in this publication was supported by the Fogarty International Center (R21 TW011687; D43 TW010543), the National Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (K24 HL166024; T32 AI007433) of the National Institutes of Health, and Heart Lung and Blood Institute (K24 HL166024, T32 AI007433). The contents of this manuscript are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the funders.

Predictors of Viral Load Status Over Time Among HIV Infected Adults Under HAART in Zewditu Memorial Hospital, Ethiopia: A Retrospective Study

Background

HIV attacks the CD4 cells which are responsible for the body's immune response to infectious agents. The main objective of this study was to identify predictors of viral load status over time among HIV patients under HAART in Zewditu Memorial Hospital.

Methods

A retrospective institutional-based cohort study design was conducted on 161 HIV-infected adults under HAART whose follow-ups were from January 2014 up to December 2017. A generalized linear mixed-effects model was conducted to infer predictors of the status of viral load at 95% of CI).

Results

The descriptive statistics revealed that about 55.9% of the adults under treatment had a detected viral load status. Among the potential predictors, visiting time of patients (AOR = 0.731, 95%: (0.634,0.842) and p-value <0.01), age of patients (AOR = 1.0666, 95% CI: (1.0527,1.0917) and p-value <0.01), weight (AOR=. 0.904, 95% CI: (0.862, 0.946) and p-value <0.01), baseline CD4 cell count (AOR = 0.996, 95% CI: (0.994, 0.998) and P-value <0.01), educated patients (AOR = 0.030, 95% CI: (0.002, 0.385) and p-value=0.0053), rural patients (AOR = 6.30,95% CL: (1.78, 2.25) and p-value=0.0043), working status patients (AOR = 0.5905, 95% CI: (0.547,0.638), p-value <0.01), poor adherent patients (AOR = 1.120, 95% CI; (1.035,1.391) and p-value = 0.016) and patients disclosed the disease status (AOR = 0.195, 95% CI: (0.023, 0.818) and p-value=0.0134) significantly affected the detection status of viral loads, keeping all other covariates constant.

Conclusion

The predictor variables; visiting times, the weight of patients, residence area, age of patients, educational level, clinical stages, functional status, baseline CD4 cell count, adherence status, and disclosure status of the disease statistically and significantly affected the status of viral load. Hence, health-related education should be given for patients to disclose their disease status, to be good adherents based on the prescription given to the health staff. Due attentions should be given for rural and uneducated patients. Attention should be forwarded to for non-adherent patients to follow the instruction given by the health staff.

Male partner age, viral load, and HIV infection in adolescent girls and young women: evidence from eight sub-Saharan African countries

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to elucidate the role of partnerships with older men in the HIV epidemic among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) aged 15-24 years in sub-Saharan Africa.

DESIGN

Analysis of Population-based HIV Impact Assessments in Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

METHODS

We examined associations between reported partner age and recent HIV infection among AGYW, incorporating male population-level HIV characteristics by age-band. Recent HIV infection was defined using the LAg avidity assay algorithm. Viremia was defined as a viral load of more than 1000 copies/ml, regardless of serostatus. Logistic regression compared recent infection in AGYW with older male partners to those reporting younger partners. Dyadic analysis examined cohabitating male partner age, HIV status, and viremia to assess associations with AGYW infection.

RESULTS

Among 17 813 AGYW, increasing partner age was associated with higher odds of recent infection, peaking for partners aged 35-44 (adjusted odds ratio = 8.94, 95% confidence interval: 2.63-30.37) compared with partners aged 15-24. Population-level viremia was highest in this male age-band. Dyadic analyses of 5432 partnerships confirmed the association between partner age-band and prevalent HIV infection (male spousal age 35-44-adjusted odds ratio = 3.82, 95% confidence interval: 2.17-6.75). Most new infections were in AGYW with partners aged 25-34, as most AGYW had partners in this age-band.

CONCLUSION

These results provide evidence that men aged 25-34 drive most AGYW infections, but partners over 9 years older than AGYW in the 35-44 age-band confer greater risk. Population-level infectiousness and male age group should be incorporated into identifying high-risk typologies in AGYW.

A community-based intervention to decrease the prevalence of HIV viremia among people who inject drugs in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

In most low-to-middle-income countries, HIV control at the population level among people who inject drugs (PWID) remains a major challenge. We aimed to demonstrate that an innovative intervention can identify HIV-positive PWID in the community who are not treated efficiently, and get them treated efficiently.

METHODS

Between 2016 and 2020, we implemented an intervention consisting of mass HIV screening of PWID using three annual respondent-driven sampling surveys (RDSS) and a post-intervention evaluation RDSS in community-based organisation (CBO) sites, coupled with peer support to facilitate/improve access to antiretroviral and methadone therapy in Haiphong, Vietnam. The primary outcome was the proportion of identified uncontrolled HIV-positive PWID who achieved viral control. We also estimated the potential effect of the intervention on the proportion of PWID with HIV RNA >1000 copies/mL among all PWID during the study period.

FINDINGS

Over the three RDSS, 3150 different PWID were screened, i.e. two-thirds of the estimated population size. They all injected heroin, their median age was of 39 years, 95% were male, 26.5% were HIV-infected, and 78.6% of the latter had HIV RNA ≤1000 copies/mL. Among the 177 PWID identified with an unsuppressed viral load, 73 (41.2%) achieved viral suppression at the final visit. HIV viremia decreased from 7.2% at baseline to 2.9% at the final RDSS (p<0.001). Up to 42% of this observed reduction may be explained by the intervention, in the absence of any external intervention targeting PWID during the study period.

INTERPRETATION

Mass community-based screening using RDSS coupled with CBO support is a powerful tool to rapidly identify untreated HIV-positive PWID and (re)link them to care.

FUNDING

NIDA (USA) and ANRS (France).

Spatiotemporal Variation and Predictors of Unsuppressed Viral Load among HIV-Positive Men and Women in Rural and Peri-Urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Unsuppressed HIV viral load is an important marker of sustained HIV transmission. We investigated the prevalence, predictors, and high-risk areas of unsuppressed HIV viral load among HIV-positive men and women. Unsuppressed HIV viral load was defined as viral load of ≥400 copies/mL. Data from the HIV Incidence District Surveillance System (HIPSS), a longitudinal study undertaken between June 2014 to June 2016 among men and women aged 15−49 years in rural and peri-urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, were analysed. A Bayesian geoadditive regression model which includes a spatial effect for a small enumeration area was applied using an integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) function while accounting for unobserved factors, non-linear effects of selected continuous variables, and spatial autocorrelation. The prevalence of unsuppressed HIV viral load was 46.1% [95% CI: 44.3−47.8]. Predictors of unsuppressed HIV viral load were incomplete high school education, being away from home for more than a month, alcohol consumption, no prior knowledge of HIV status, not ever tested for HIV, not on antiretroviral therapy (ART), on tuberculosis (TB) medication, having two or more sexual partners in the last 12 months, and having a CD4 cell count of <350 cells/μL. A positive non-linear effect of age, household size, and the number of lifetime HIV tests was identified. The higher-risk pattern of unsuppressed HIV viral load occurred in the northwest and northeast of the study area. Identifying predictors of unsuppressed viral load in a localized geographic area and information from spatial risk maps are important for targeted prevention and treatment programs to reduce the transmission of HIV.

Food insecurity and the risk of HIV acquisition: findings from population-based surveys in six sub-Saharan African countries (2016-2017)

OBJECTIVE

To assess the potential bidirectional relationship between food insecurity and HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

DESIGN

Nationally representative HIV impact assessment household-based surveys.

SETTING

Zambia, Eswatini, Lesotho, Uganda and Tanzania and Namibia.

PARTICIPANTS

112 955 survey participants aged 15-59 years with HIV and recency test results.

MEASURES

Recent HIV infection (within 6 months) classified using the HIV-1 limited antigen avidity assay, in participants with an unsuppressed viral load (>1000 copies/mL) and no detectable antiretrovirals; severe food insecurity (SFI) defined as having no food in the house ≥three times in the past month.

RESULTS

Overall, 10.3% of participants lived in households reporting SFI. SFI was most common in urban, woman-headed households, and in people with chronic HIV infection. Among women, SFI was associated with a twofold increase in risk of recent HIV infection (adjusted relative risk (aRR) 2.08, 95% CI 1.09 to 3.97). SFI was also associated with transactional sex (aRR 1.28, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.41), a history of forced sex (aRR 1.36, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.66) and condom-less sex with a partner of unknown or positive HIV status (aRR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.14) in all women, and intergenerational sex (partner ≥10 years older) in women aged 15-24 years (aRR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.46). Recent receipt of food support was protective against HIV acquisition (aRR 0.36, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.88).

CONCLUSION

SFI increased risk for HIV acquisition in women by twofold. Heightened food insecurity during climactic extremes could imperil HIV epidemic control, and food support to women with SFI during these events could reduce HIV transmission.

Predicting the Risk of Hiv-1 Acquisition in Rural South Africa Using Geospatial Data

Background

Accurate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk assessment can guide optimal HIV prevention. We evaluated the performance of risk prediction models incorporating geospatial measures.

Methods

We developed and validated HIV risk prediction models in a population-based cohort in South Africa. Individual-level covariates included demographic and sexual behavior measures, and geospatial covariates included community HIV prevalence and viral load estimates. We trained models on 2012–2015 data using LASSO Cox models and validated predictions in 2016–2019 data. We compared full models to simpler models restricted to only individual-level covariates or only age and geospatial covariates. We compared the spatial distribution of predicted risk to that of high incidence areas (≥ 3/100 person-years).

Results

Our analysis included 19 556 individuals contributing 44 871 person-years and 1308 seroconversions. Incidence among the highest predicted risk quintile using the full model was 6.6/100 person-years (women) and 2.8/100 person-years (men). Models using only age group and geospatial covariates had similar performance (women: AUROC = 0.65, men: AUROC = 0.71) to the full models (women: AUROC = 0.68, men: AUROC = 0.72). Geospatial models more accurately identified high incidence regions than individual-level models; 20% of the study area with the highest predicted risk accounted for 60% of the high incidence areas when using geospatial models but only 13% using models with only individual-level covariates.

Conclusions

Geospatial models with no individual measures other than age group predicted HIV risk nearly as well as models that included detailed behavioral data. Geospatial models may help guide HIV prevention efforts to individuals and geographic areas at highest risk.

Risk scores for predicting HIV incidence among adult heterosexual populations in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Several HIV risk scores have been developed to identify individuals for prioritized HIV prevention in sub‐Saharan Africa. We systematically reviewed HIV risk scores to: (1) identify factors that consistently predicted incident HIV infection, (2) review inclusion of community‐level HIV risk in predictive models and (3) examine predictive performance.

Methods

We searched nine databases from inception until 15 February 2021 for studies developing and/or validating HIV risk scores among the heterosexual adult population in sub‐Saharan Africa. Studies not prospectively observing seroconversion or recruiting only key populations were excluded. Record screening, data extraction and critical appraisal were conducted in duplicate. We used random‐effects meta‐analysis to summarize hazard ratios and the area under the receiver‐operating characteristic curve (AUC‐ROC).

Results

From 1563 initial search records, we identified 14 risk scores in 13 studies. Seven studies were among sexually active women using contraceptives enrolled in randomized‐controlled trials, three among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) and three among cohorts enrolling both men and women. Consistently identified HIV prognostic factors among women were younger age (pooled adjusted hazard ratio: 1.62 [95% confidence interval: 1.17, 2.23], compared to above 25), single/not cohabiting with primary partners (2.33 [1.73, 3.13]) and having sexually transmitted infections (STIs) at baseline (HSV‐2: 1.67 [1.34, 2.09]; curable STIs: 1.45 [1.17; 1.79]). Among AGYW, only STIs were consistently associated with higher incidence, but studies were limited (n = 3). Community‐level HIV prevalence or unsuppressed viral load strongly predicted incidence but was only considered in 3 of 11 multi‐site studies. The AUC‐ROC ranged from 0.56 to 0.79 on the model development sets. Only the VOICE score was externally validated by multiple studies, with pooled AUC‐ROC 0.626 [0.588, 0.663] (I²: 64.02%).

Conclusions

Younger age, non‐cohabiting and recent STIs were consistently identified as predicting future HIV infection. Both community HIV burden and individual factors should be considered to quantify HIV risk. However, HIV risk scores had only low‐to‐moderate discriminatory ability and uncertain generalizability, limiting their programmatic utility. Further evidence on the relative value of specific risk factors, studies populations not restricted to “at‐risk” individuals and data outside South Africa will improve the evidence base for risk differentiation in HIV prevention programmes.

PROSPERO Number

CRD42021236367

The geography and inter-community configuration of new sexual partnership formation in a rural South African population over fourteen years (2003-2016)

Understanding spatial configuration of sexual network structure is critical for effective use of HIV preventative interventions in a community. However, this has never been described at the population level for any setting in sub-Saharan Africa. We constructed the comprehensive geospatial sexual network among new heterosexual partnerships in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In the Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI)'s population-based surveillance, we identified stable sexual partnerships among individuals (≥15 years) from 2003 to 2016. Sexual partnerships and residency were recorded via household surveys (every 4-6 months). We geolocated residents and migration events and mapped the geospatial linkages of sexual partners at the start of sexual partnerships. In a grid composed by 108 cells (nodes; 3kmx3km per cell) covering the surveillance area (438km2), we calculated the degree of connectivity and centrality of the nodes and examined their association with HIV prevalence and incidence per cell. Of 2401 new sexual partnerships, 21% (n = 495) had both partners living within the surveillance area at the start of sexual partnerships, and 76% (376/495) were linked to the geographic HIV cluster with high HIV prevalence identified in a peri-urban community. Overall, 57 nodes had at least one connection to another node. The nodes in the peri-urban cluster had higher connectivity (mean = 19, range: 9-32), compared to outside the cluster (6, range: 1-16). The node's degree of connectivity was positively associated with HIV prevalence of the cell (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.67; p <0.005). The peri-urban cluster contained nine of the 10 nodes that composed of a single large central module in the community. About 17% of sexual partnerships (n = 421) were formed between a resident and a non-resident partner who out-migrated. Most of these non-resident partners lived in KwaZulu-Natal (86.7%), followed by Gauteng (9.7%), and the median distance between a resident and a non-resident partner was 50.1km (IQR: 23.2-177.2). We found that the peri-urban HIV cluster served as the highly connected central node of the network for sexual partnership formation. The network was also connected beyond the surveillance area across South Africa. Understanding spatial sexual network can improve the provision of spatially targeted and effective interventions.

Optimised electronic patient records to improve clinical monitoring of HIV-positive patients in rural South Africa (MONART trial): study protocol for a cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

There is poor viral load monitoring (VLM) and inadequate management of virological failure in HIV-positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. This could be contributing to increasing HIV drug resistance in the setting. This study aims to investigate the clinical and process impediments in VLM within the health system and to evaluate a quality improvement package (QIP) to address the identified gaps. The QIP comprises (i) a designated viral load champion responsible for administrative management and triaging of viral load results (ii) technological enhancement of the routine clinic-based Three Interlinked Electronic Register (TIER.Net) to facilitate daily automatic import of viral load results from the National Health Service Laboratory to TIER.Net (iii) development of a dashboard system to support VLM.

METHODS/DESIGN

The study will evaluate the effectiveness of the QIP compared to current care for improving VLM and virological suppression using an effectiveness implementation hybrid type 3 design. This will use a cluster-randomised design with the primary healthcare clinics as the unit of randomisation with ten clinics randomised in a 1:1 ratio to either the intervention or control arm. We will enrol 150 HIV-positive individuals who had been on ART for ≥ 12 months from each of the ten clinics (750 in 5 intervention clinics vs. 750 in 5 control clinics) and follow them up for a period of 12 months. The primary outcome is the proportion of all patients who have a viral load (VL) measurement and are virally suppressed (composite outcome) after 12 months of follow up. Secondary outcomes during follow up include proportion of all patients with at least one documented VL in TIER.Net, proportion with VL ≥ 50 copies/mL, proportion with VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL (virological failure) and subsequent switch to second-line ART.

DISCUSSION

We aim to provide evidence that a staff-centred quality improvement package, designated viral load monitoring champion, and augmentation of TIER.Net with a dashboard system will improve viral load monitoring and lead to improved virological suppression.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov on 8 Oct 2021. Identifier: NCT05071573; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05071573?term=NCT05071573&draw=2&rank=1.

HIV incidence, viremia, and the national response in Eswatini: Two sequential population-based surveys

With the highest HIV incidence and prevalence globally, the government of Eswatini started a substantial scale-up of HIV treatment and prevention services in 2011. Two sequential large population-based surveys were conducted before and after service expansion to assess the impact of the national response. Cross-sectional, household-based, nationally representative samples of adults, ages 18 to 49 years, were sampled in 2011 and 2016. We measured HIV prevalence, incidence (recent infection based on limiting antigen ≤1.5 optical density units and HIV RNA ≥1000 copies/mL), viral load suppression (HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL among all seropositive adults) and unsuppressed viremia (HIV RNA ≥1000 copies/mL among all, regardless of HIV status) and assessed for temporal changes by conducting a trend analysis of the log ratio of proportions, using a Z statistic distribution. HIV prevalence remained stable from 2011 to 2016 [32% versus 30%, p = 0.10]. HIV incidence significantly declined 48% [2.48% versus 1.30%, p = 0.01]. Incidence remained higher among women than men [2011: 3.16% versus 1.83%; 2016: 1.76% versus 0.86%], with a smaller but significant relative reduction among women [44%; p = 0.04] than men [53%; p = 0.09]. The proportion of seropositive adults with viral load suppression significantly increased from 35% to 71% [p < .001]. The proportion of the total adult population with unsuppressed viremia decreased from 21% to 9% [p < .001]. National HIV incidence in Eswatini decreased by nearly half and viral load suppression doubled over a five-year period. Unsuppressed viremia in the total population decreased 58%. These population-based findings demonstrate the national impact of expanded HIV services in a hyperendemic country.

Migration in Namibia and its association with HIV acquisition and treatment outcomes

BACKGROUND

In the 21st century, understanding how population migration impacts human health is critical. Namibia has high migration rates and HIV prevalence, but little is known about how these intersect. We examined the association between migration and HIV-related outcomes using data from the 2017 Namibia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (NAMPHIA).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The NAMPHIA survey selected a nationally representative sample of adults in 2017. All adults aged 15-64 years were invited to complete an interview and home-based HIV test. Recent infection (<130 days) was measured using HIV-1 LAg avidity combined with viral load (>1000 copies/mL) and antiretroviral analyte data. Awareness of HIV status and antiretroviral use were based on self-report and/or detectable antiretrovirals in blood. Viremia was defined as having a viral load ≥1000 copies/mL, including all participants in the denominator regardless of serostatus. We generated community viremia values as a weighted proportion at the EA level, excluding those classified as recently infected. Significant migrants were those who had lived outside their current region or away from home >one month in the past three years. Recent cross-community in-migrants were those who had moved to the community <two years ago. Separate analyses were done to compare significant migrants to non-migrants and recent cross-community in-migrants to those who in-migrated >two years ago to determine the association of migration and timing with recent infection or viral load suppression (VLS). All proportions are weighted. Of eligible adults, we had HIV results and migration data on 9,625 (83.9%) of 11,474 women and 7,291 (73.0%) of 9,990 men. Most respondents (62.5%) reported significant migration. Of cross-community in-migrants, 15.3% were recent. HIV prevalence was 12.6% and did not differ by migration status. Population VLS was 77.4%. Recent cross-community in-migration was associated with recent HIV infection (aOR: 4.01, 95% CI 0.99-16.22) after adjusting for community viremia. Significant migration (aOR 0.73, 95% CI: 0.55-0.97) and recent cross-community in-migration (aOR 0.57, 95% CI: 0.35-0.92) were associated with lower VLS, primarily due to lack of awareness of HIV infection. The study was limited by lack of precise data on trajectory of migration.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a high population-level VLS, Namibia still has migrant populations that are not accessing effective treatment for HIV. Targeting migrants with effective prevention and testing programs in communities with viremia could enable further epidemic control.

Population Viral Load, Viremia, and Recent HIV-1 Infections: Findings From Population-Based HIV Impact Assessments (PHIAs) in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia

BACKGROUND

HIV population viral load (PVL) can reflect antiretroviral therapy program effectiveness and transmission potential in a community. Using nationally representative data from household surveys conducted in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia in 2015-16, we examined the association between various VL measures and the probability of at least one recent HIV-1 infection in the community.

METHODS

We used limiting-antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay, viral load suppression (VLS) (HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL), and antiretrovirals in the blood to identify recent HIV-1 cases.

RESULTS

Among 1510 enumeration areas (EAs) across the 3 surveys, 52,036 adults aged 15-59 years resided in 1363 (90.3%) EAs with at least one HIV-positive adult consenting to interview and blood draw and whose VL was tested. Mean HIV prevalence across these EAs was 13.1% [95% confidence intervals (CI) 12.7 to 13.5]. Mean VLS prevalence across these EAs was 58.7% (95% CI: 57.3 to 60.0). In multivariable analysis, PVL was associated with a recent HIV-1 case in that EA (adjusted odds ratio: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.2 to 1.6, P = 0.001). VLS prevalence was inversely correlated with recent infections (adjusted odds ratio: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1 to 0.6, P = 0.004). The 90-90-90 indicators, namely, the prevalence of HIV diagnosis, antiretroviral therapy coverage, and VLS at the EA level, were inversely correlated with HIV recency at the EA level.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a strong association between PVL and VLS prevalence and recent HIV-1 infection at the EA level across 3 southern African countries with generalized HIV epidemics. These results suggest that population-based measures of VLS in communities may serve as a proxy for epidemic control.

HIV Incidence by Male Circumcision Status From the Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Surveys-Eight Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2015-2017

BACKGROUND

Male circumcision (MC) offers men lifelong partial protection from heterosexually acquired HIV infection. The impact of MC on HIV incidence has not been quantified in nationally representative samples. Data from the population-based HIV impact assessments were used to compare HIV incidence by MC status in countries implementing voluntary medical MC (VMMC) programs.

METHODS

Data were pooled from population-based HIV impact assessments conducted in Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe from 2015 to 2017. Incidence was measured using a recent infection testing algorithm and analyzed by self-reported MC status distinguishing between medical and nonmedical MC. Country, marital status, urban setting, sexual risk behaviors, and mean population HIV viral load among women as an indicator of treatment scale-up were included in a random-effects logistic regression model using pooled survey weights. Analyses were age stratified (15-34 and 35-59 years). Annualized incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and incidence differences were calculated between medically circumcised and uncircumcised men.

RESULTS

Men 15-34 years reporting medical MC had lower HIV incidence than uncircumcised men [0.04% (95% CI: 0.00% to 0.10%) versus 0.34% (95% CI: 0.10% to 0.57%), respectively; P value = 0.01]; whereas among men 35-59 years, there was no significant incidence difference [1.36% (95% CI: 0.32% to 2.39%) versus 0.55% (95% CI: 0.14% to 0.67%), respectively; P value = 0.14].

DISCUSSION

Medical MC was associated with lower HIV incidence in men aged 15-34 years in nationally representative surveys in Africa. These findings are consistent with the expected ongoing VMMC program impact and highlight the importance of VMMC for the HIV response in Africa.

Temporal change in population-level prevalence of detectable HIV viraemia and its association with HIV incidence in key populations in India: a serial cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Population-level prevalence of detectable HIV viraemia (PDV) has been proposed as a metric for monitoring the population-level effectiveness of HIV treatment as prevention. We aimed to characterise temporal changes in PDV in people who inject drugs (PWID) and men who have sex with men (MSM) in India and evaluate community-level and individual-level associations with cross-sectional HIV incidence.

METHODS

We did a serial cross-sectional study in which baseline (from Oct 1, 2012, to Dec 19, 2013) and follow-up (from Aug 1, 2016, to May 28, 2017) respondent-driven sampling (RDS) surveys were done in MSM (ten community sites) and PWID (12 community sites) across 21 cities in India. Eligible participants were those aged 18 years or older who provided informed consent and possessed a valid RDS referral coupon. Annualised HIV incidence was estimated with validated multiple-assay algorithms. PDV was calculated as the percentage of people with detectable HIV RNA (>150 copies per mL) in a community site. Community-level associations were determined by linear regression. Multivariable, multilevel Poisson regression was used to assess associations with recent HIV infection.

FINDINGS

We recruited 21 990 individuals in the baseline survey and 21 726 individuals in the follow-up survey. The median community-level HIV incidence estimate increased from 0·9% (range 0·0-2·2) at baseline to 1·5% (0·5-3·0) at follow-up in MSM and from 1·6% (0·5-12·4) to 3·6% (0·0-18·4) in PWID. At the community-level, every 1 percentage point increase in baseline PDV and temporal change in PDV between surveys was associated with higher annualised HIV incidence at follow-up: for baseline PDV β=0·41 (95% CI 0·18-0·63) and for change in PDV β=0·52 (0·38-0·66). After accounting for individual-level risk factors, every 10 percentage point increase in baseline PDV and temporal change in PDV was associated with higher individual-level risk of recent HIV infection at follow-up: adjusted risk ratio 1·85 (95% CI 1·44-2·37) for baseline PDV and 1·81 (1·43-2·29) for change in PDV.

INTERPRETATION

PDV was temporally associated with community-level and individual-level HIV incidence. These data support scale-up of treatment as prevention programmes to reduce HIV incidence and the programmatic use of PDV to monitor community HIV risk potential.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health, Elton John AIDS Foundation.

Large age shifts in HIV-1 incidence patterns in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

HIV incidence has recently been in decline across some of the most intense epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa due to the scale-up of prevention and transmission-blocking treatments. Understanding whether declines in incidence are being felt equally across age and gender can help prioritize demographic groups where more effort is needed to lower transmission. We found that HIV incidence has declined disproportionately in the youngest men and women in a population with the highest HIV prevalence in the world. Shifts in the age distribution of risk may be the consequence of aging prevalence, prioritized prevention to younger individuals, and delays in age at infection from reduced overall force of infection. Our results highlight the need to expand age targets for HIV prevention.

Recent declines in adult HIV-1 incidence have followed the large-scale expansion of antiretroviral therapy and primary HIV prevention across high-burden communities of sub-Saharan Africa. Mathematical modeling suggests that HIV risk will decline disproportionately in younger adult age-groups as interventions scale, concentrating new HIV infections in those >age 25 over time. Yet, no empirical data exist to support these projections. We conducted a population-based cohort study over a 16-y period (2004 to 2019), spanning the early scale-up of antiretroviral therapy and voluntary medical male circumcision, to estimate changes in the age distribution of HIV incidence in a hyperepidemic region of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV incidence has recently declined. Median age of HIV seroconversion increased by 5.5 y in men and 3.0 y in women, and the age of peak HIV incidence increased by 5.0 y in men and 2.0 y in women. Incidence declined disproportionately among young men (64% in men 15 to 19, 68% in men 20 to 24, and 46% in men 25 to 29) and young women (44% in women 15 to 19, 24% in women 20 to 24) comparing periods pre- versus post-universal test and treat. Incidence was stable (<20% change) in women aged 30 to 39 and men aged 30 to 34. Age shifts in incidence occurred after 2012 and were observed earlier in men than in women. These results provide direct epidemiological evidence of the changing demographics of HIV risk in sub-Saharan Africa in the era of large-scale treatment and prevention. More attention is needed to address lagging incidence decline among older individuals.

Convergence of infectious and non-communicable disease epidemics in rural South Africa: a cross-sectional, population-based multimorbidity study

BACKGROUND

There has been remarkable progress in the treatment of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa, but there are few data on the prevalence and overlap of other significant causes of disease in HIV endemic populations. Our aim was to identify the prevalence and overlap of infectious and non-communicable diseases in such a population in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We did a cross-sectional study of eligible adolescents and adults from the Africa Health Research Institute demographic surveillance area in the uMkhanyakude district of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The participants, who were 15 years or older, were invited to participate at a mobile health camp. Medical history for HIV, tuberculosis, hypertension, and diabetes was established through a questionnaire. Blood pressure measurements, chest x-rays, and tests of blood and sputum were taken to estimate the population prevalence and geospatial distribution of HIV, active and lifetime tuberculosis, elevated blood glucose, elevated blood pressure, and combinations of these.

FINDINGS

17 118 adolescents and adults were recruited from May 25, 2018, to Nov 28, 2019, and assessed. Overall, 52·1% (95% CI 51·3-52·9) had at least one active disease. 34·2% (33·5-34·9) had HIV, 1·4% (1·2-1·6) had active tuberculosis, 21·8% (21·2-22·4) had lifetime tuberculosis, 8·5% (8·1-8·9) had elevated blood glucose, and 23·0% (22·4-23·6) had elevated blood pressure. Appropriate treatment and optimal disease control was highest for HIV (78·1%), and lower for elevated blood pressure (42·5%), active tuberculosis (29·6%), and elevated blood glucose (7·1%). Disease prevalence differed notably by sex, across age groups, and geospatially: men had a higher prevalence of active and lifetime tuberculosis, whereas women had a substantially high prevalence of HIV at 30-49 years and an increasing prevalence of multiple and poorly controlled non-communicable diseases when older than 50 years.

INTERPRETATION

We found a convergence of infectious and non-communicable disease epidemics in a rural South African population, with HIV well treated relative to all other diseases, but tuberculosis, elevated blood glucose, and elevated blood pressure poorly diagnosed and treated. A public health response that expands the successes of the HIV testing and treatment programme to provide multidisease care targeted to specific populations is required to optimise health in such settings in sub-Saharan Africa.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the South African Department of Science and Innovation, South African Medical Research Council, and South African Population Research Infrastructure Network.

TRANSLATION

For the isiZulu translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Patterns of multimorbidity and their association with hospitalisation: a population-based study of older adults in urban Tanzania

BACKGROUND

while the HIV epidemic remains a considerable challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, a dramatic reduction in the associated mortality has led to a fundamental shift in the public health priorities aimed at tackling multimorbidity. Against the unprecedented level of urbanisation taking place in Tanzania, the burden of multimorbidity and its consequences among ageing adults, in the form of costly inpatient hospitalisation, remain unquantified.

METHODS

we used data from one of Africa's largest urban population cohort, the Dar es Salaam Health and the Demographic Surveillance System, to quantity the extent of multimorbidity (occurrence of 2 ≥ health conditions) and discordant multimorbidity (occurrence of conditions in 2 ≥ domains in mental health, non-communicable and communicable health) among 2,299 adults aged ≥40 years in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. We fitted logistic regression models to investigate the association between multimorbidity and inpatient hospitalisation.

RESULTS

the prevalence of multimorbidity and discordant multimorbidity were 25.3 and 2.5%, respectively. Although the severe forms of multimorbidity (2.0% with ≥4 health conditions) and discordancy were low, hospitalisation was significantly higher based on the regression analyses. Household food insecurity was the only socio-economic variable that was significantly and consistently associated with a greater hospitalisation.

CONCLUSION

we found an alarmingly high degree of multimorbidity among this ageing urban population where hospitalisation was driven by multimorbidity. As public health resources remain scarce, reducing costly inpatient hospitalisation requires multilevel interventions that address clinical- and structural-level challenges (e.g. food insecurity) to mitigate multimorbidity and promote long-term healthy independent living among older adults in Tanzania.

Potential Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Condomless-Sex-Concentrated PrEP in KwaZulu-Natal Accounting for Drug Resistance

INTRODUCTION

Oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the form of tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate/emtricitabine is being implemented in selected sites in South Africa. Addressing outstanding questions on PrEP cost-effectiveness can inform further implementation.

METHODS

We calibrated an individual-based model to KwaZulu-Natal to predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP, with use concentrated in periods of condomless sex, accounting for effects on drug resistance. We consider (1) PrEP availability for adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years and female sex workers, and (2) availability for everyone aged 15-64 years. Our primary analysis represents a level of PrEP use hypothesized to be attainable by future PrEP programs.

RESULTS

In the context of PrEP use in adults aged 15-64 years, there was a predicted 33% reduction in incidence and 36% reduction in women aged 15-24 years. PrEP was cost-effective, including in a range of sensitivity analyses, although with substantially reduced (cost) effectiveness under a policy of ART initiation with efavirenz- rather than dolutegravir-based regimens due to PrEP undermining ART effectiveness by increasing HIV drug resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

PrEP use concentrated during time periods of condomless sex has the potential to substantively impact HIV incidence and be cost-effective.

HIV viral load and pregnancy loss: results from a population-based cohort study in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

OBJECTIVE

With ever-expanding antiretroviral therapy (ART) access among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa, it is more than ever important to address the gap in knowledge around ART effectiveness, as measured by HIV viral load, and pregnancy loss.

DESIGN

A population-based cohort study.

METHODS

The study sample consisted of 3431 pregnancies from 2835 women living with HIV aged 16-35 years old. All women participated in a population-based cohort conducted between 2004 and 2018 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Viral load data were collected at prior surveys and an HIV care registry. The closest available viral load to the date that each pregnancy ended was used and classified as either a pre- or postconception viral load. Logistic regression was used to investigate the association between high viral load (log10 viral load >4.0 copies/ml) and pregnancy loss, defined as either a miscarriage or stillbirth.

RESULTS

Pregnancy loss occurred at a rate of 1.3 (95% confidence interval: 1.0-1.8) per 100 pregnancies. There were 1451 pregnancies (42.3%) with postconception viral load measurements. The median time between the viral load measurement and the pregnancy end date was 11.7 (interquartile range: 5.0-25.4) months. We found a higher likelihood of pregnancy loss in women who had high viral loads prior to the outcome of their pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio: 2.38, 95% confidence interval: 1.10-5.18).

CONCLUSION

Given the significant relationship between high viral load and pregnancy loss, our study lends further credence to ensuring effective ART through enrolment and retention of pregnant women living with HIV in ART programs, treatment adherence interventions, and viral load monitoring during pregnancy.

HIV incidence declines in a rural South African population: a G-imputation approach for inference

BACKGROUND

Ad hoc assumptions about the unobserved infection event, which is known only to occur between the latest-negative and earliest-positive test dates, can lead to biased HIV incidence rate estimates. Using a G-imputation approach, we infer the infection dates from covariate data to estimate the HIV incidence rate in a hyper-endemic South African setting.

METHODS

A large demographic surveillance system has annually tested a cohort of HIV-uninfected participants living in the KwaZulu-Natal province. Using this data, we estimated a cumulative baseline hazard function and the effects of time-dependent covariates on the interval censored infection dates. For each HIV-positive participant in the cohort, we derived a cumulative distribution function and sampled multiple infection dates conditional on the unique covariate values. We right censored the data at the imputed dates, calculated the annual HIV incidence rate per 100 person-years, and used Rubin's rules to obtain the 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

A total of 20,011 uninfected individuals with a repeat HIV test participated in the incidence cohort between 2005 and 2018. We observed 2,603 infections per 58,769 person-years of follow-up among women and 845 infections per 41,178 person-years of follow-up among men. Conditional on age and circumcision status (men only), the female HIV incidence rate declined by 25%, from 5.0 to 3.7 infections per 100 person-years between 2014 and 2018. During this period, the HIV incidence rate among men declined from 2.1 to 1.1 infections per 100 person-years-a reduction of 49%. We observed similar reductions in male and female HIV incidence conditional on condom-use, marital status, urban residential status, migration history, and the HIV prevalence in the surrounding community.

CONCLUSION

We have followed participants in one of the world's largest and longest running HIV cohorts to estimate long-term trends in the population-wide incidence of infection. Using a G-imputation approach, we present further evidence for HIV incidence rate declines in this hyper-endemic South African setting.

Opportunities and Challenges in HIV Treatment as Prevention Research: Results from the ANRS 12249 Cluster-Randomized Trial and Associated Population Cohort

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The ANRS 12249 treatment as prevention (TasP) trial investigated the impact of a universal test and treat (UTT) approach on reducing HIV incidence in one of the regions of the world most severely affected by the HIV epidemic-KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We summarize key findings from this trial as well as recent findings from controlled studies conducted in the linked population cohort quantifying the long-term effects of expanding ART on directly measured HIV incidence (2004-2017).

RECENT FINDINGS

The ANRS TasP trial did not-and could not-demonstrate a reduction in HIV incidence, because the offer of UTT in the intervention communities did not increase ART coverage and population viral suppression compared to the standard of care in the control communities. Ten controlled studies from the linked population cohort-including several quasi-experimental study designs-exploit heterogeneity in ART exposure to show a consistent and substantial impact of expanding provision of ART and population viral suppression on reduction in HIV incidence at the couple, household, community, and population levels. In this setting, all of the evidence from large, population-based studies (inclusive of the ANRS TasP trial) is remarkably coherent and consistent-i.e., higher ART coverage and population viral suppression were repeatedly associated with clear, measurable decreases in HIV incidence. Thus, the expanded provision of ART has plausibly contributed in a major way toward the dramatic 43% decline in population-level HIV incidence in this typical rural African population. The outcome of the ANRS TasP trial constitutes a powerful null finding with important insights for overcoming implementation challenges in the population delivery of ART. This finding does not imply lack of ART effectiveness in blocking onward transmission of HIV nor its inability to reduce HIV incidence. Rather, it demonstrates that large increases in ART coverage over current levels will require health systems innovations to attract people living with HIV in early stages of the disease to participate in HIV treatment. Such innovations and new approaches are required for the true potential of UTT to be realized.

Recording of HIV viral loads and viral suppression in South African patients receiving antiretroviral treatment: a multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Viral suppression in patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) is critical to reducing HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality. Although many studies have evaluated factors associated with viral suppression, few have assessed the extent to which missing viral load data may bias results.

METHODS

We included data on all patients starting ART from 2005 to 2019 in eight South African cohorts participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) collaboration. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine factors associated with having a viral load measurement within 2 months of a scheduled testing date and having a viral load <400 RNA copies/ml ('viral suppression'). In a sensitivity analysis, missing viral loads were imputed based on patients' clinical and demographic characteristics and outcomes.

RESULTS

Viral load tests were scheduled in 603,549 and 77,423 intervals in adults and children, respectively, but test results were recorded in only 40.7% and 41.2%, respectively. The proportion of recorded results suppressed was 85.7% in adults and 72.4% in children. After imputation of missing viral load measurements, viral suppression reduced slightly in adults (85.3%) and increased in children (73.2%). Predictors of virological suppression in adults, which included female sex, older age, higher baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count and recent testing year, were similar in the main analysis and after imputing missing viral loads.

CONCLUSIONS

Although viral load information was frequently missing in the South African setting, estimates of viral suppression and predictors of viral suppression did not change substantially after adjusting for missing data.

HIV seroconcordance among heterosexual couples in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a population-based analysis

INTRODUCTION

High levels of HIV seroconcordance at the population level reduce the potential for effective HIV transmission. However, the level of HIV seroconcordance is largely unknown among heterosexual couples in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to quantify the population level HIV seroconcordance in stable heterosexual couples in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We followed adults (≥15 years old) using a population-based, longitudinal and open surveillance system in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, from 2003 to 2016. Sexual partnerships and HIV status were confirmed via household surveys and annual HIV surveillance. We calculated the proportions of HIV seroconcordance and serodiscordance in stable sexual partnerships and compared them to the expected proportions under the assumption of random mixing using individual-based microsimulation models. Among unpartnered individuals, we estimated the incidence rates and hazard of sexual partnership formation with HIV-positive or HIV-negative partners by participants' own time-varying HIV status. Competing risks survival regressions were fitted adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. We also calculated Newman's assortativity coefficients.

RESULTS

A total of 18,341 HIV-negative and 11,361 HIV-positive individuals contributed 154,469 person-years (PY) of follow-up. Overall, 28% of the participants were in stable sexual partnerships. Of the 677 newly formed stable sexual partnerships, 7.7% (95% CI: 5.8 to 10.0) were HIV-positive seroconcordant (i.e. both individuals in the partnership were HIV-positive), which was three times higher than the expected proportion (2.3%) in microsimulation models based on random mixing. The incidence rates of sexual partnership formation were 0.54/1000PY with HIV-positive, 1.12/1000PY with HIV-negative and 2.65/1000PY with unknown serostatus partners. HIV-positive individuals had 2.39 (95% CI: 1.43 to 3.99) times higher hazard of forming a sexual partnership with an HIV-positive partner than did HIV-negative individuals after adjusting for age, opposite-sex HIV prevalence (by 5-years age groups), HIV prevalence in the surrounding community, ART coverage and other sociodemographic factors. Similarly, forming a sexual partnership with an HIV-negative partner was 1.47 (95% CI: 1.01 to 2.14) times higher in HIV-negative individuals in the adjusted model. Newman's coefficient also showed that assortativity by participant and partner HIV status was moderate (r = 0.35).

CONCLUSIONS

A high degree of population level HIV seroconcordance (both positive and negative) was observed at the time of forming new sexual partnerships. Understanding factors driving these patterns may help the development of strategies to bring the HIV epidemic under control.

Declines in HIV incidence among men and women in a South African population-based cohort

Over the past decade, there has been a massive scale-up of primary and secondary prevention services to reduce the population-wide incidence of HIV. However, the impact of these services on HIV incidence has not been demonstrated using a prospectively followed, population-based cohort from South Africa—the country with the world’s highest rate of new infections. To quantify HIV incidence trends in a hyperendemic population, we tested a cohort of 22,239 uninfected participants over 92,877 person-years of observation. We report a 43% decline in the overall incidence rate between 2012 and 2017, from 4.0 to 2.3 seroconversion events per 100 person-years. Men experienced an earlier and larger incidence decline than women (59% vs. 37% reduction), which is consistent with male circumcision scale-up and higher levels of female antiretroviral therapy coverage. Additional efforts are needed to get more men onto consistent, suppressive treatment so that new HIV infections can be reduced among women.

Here, the authors investigate the outcome of prevention services scale-up on HIV incidence in a South African large population-based HIV surveillance cohort with over a decade of follow-up and associate a 43% reduction in incidence to earlier male medical circumcision and increased levels of antiretroviral therapy coverage.

Challenges of HIV diagnosis and management in the context of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), test and start and acute HIV infection: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Knowledge of HIV status relies on accurate HIV testing, and is the first step towards access to HIV treatment and prevention programmes. Globally, HIV-status unawareness represents a significant challenge for achieving zero new HIV infections and deaths. In order to enhance knowledge of HIV status, the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends a testing strategy that includes the use of HIV-specific antibody point-of-care tests (POCT). These POCTs do not detect acute HIV infection, the stage of disease when viral load is highest but HIV antibodies are undetectable. Complicating things further, in the presence of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) or post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), other currently available testing technologies, such as viral load detection for diagnosis of acute HIV infection, may yield false-negative results. In this scoping review, we evaluate the evidence and discuss alternative HIV testing algorithms that may mitigate diagnostic dilemmas in the setting of increased utilization of ART for immediate treatment and prevention of HIV infection.

DISCUSSION

Missed acute HIV infection prevents people living with HIV (PLHIV) from accessing early treatment, increases likelihood of onward transmission, and allows for inappropriate initiation or continuation of PrEP, which may result in HIV drug resistance. While immediate ART is recommended for all PLHIV, studies have shown that starting ART in the setting of acute HIV infection may result in a delayed or complete absence of development of HIV-specific antibodies, posing a diagnostic challenge that is particularly pertinent to resource-limited, high HIV burden settings where HIV-antibody POCTs are standard of care. Similarly, ART used as PrEP or PEP may supress HIV RNA viral load, complicating current HIV testing algorithms in resource-wealthy settings where viral detection is included. As rollout of PrEP continues, HIV testing algorithms may need to be modified.

CONCLUSIONS

With increasing use of PrEP and ART in acute infection we anticipate diagnostic challenges using currently available HIV testing strategies. Research and surveillance are needed to determine the most appropriate assays and optimal testing algorithms that are accurate, affordable and sustainable.

Longitudinal Trends in the Prevalence of Detectable HIV Viremia: Population-Based Evidence From Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Background

The prevalence of detectable viremia has previously been used to infer the potential for ongoing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. To date, no study has evaluated the longitudinal change in the prevalence of detectable viremia within the HIV-positive community (PDV+) and the entire population (PDVP) using data from a sub-Saharan African setting.

Methods

In 2011, 2013, and 2014, we obtained 6752 HIV-positive and 15415 HIV-negative test results from a population-based surveillance system in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. We quantified the PDV+ as the proportion of the 6752 HIV-positive results with a viral load >1550 copies/mL and the PDVP as the proportion of the 6752 HIV-positive and 15415 HIV-negative results with a viral load >1550 copies/mL.

Results

Between 2011 and 2014, the PDV+ decreased by 16.5 percentage points (pp) for women (from 71.8% to 55.3%) and 10.6 pp for men (from 77.8% to 67.2%). However, a steady rise in the overall HIV prevalence, from 26.7% to 32.4%, offset the declines in the PDV+ for both sexes. For women, the PDVP decreased by only 2.1 pp, from 21.3% to 19.2%, but for men, the PDVP actually increased by 1.6 pp, from 14.6% to 16.2%, over the survey period.

Conclusions

The PDV+, which is currently being tracked under the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, may not be an accurate indicator of the potential for ongoing HIV transmission. There is a critical need for countries to monitor and report the prevalence of detectable viremia among all adults, irrespective of HIV status.

Knowledge and Acceptability of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ghana

In Ghana, men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by HIV. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a biomedical intervention that reduces the risk of HIV infection but is not currently available in Ghana. This paper explores knowledge and acceptability of HIV PrEP among Ghanaian MSM. Qualitative content analysis was conducted on 22 focus group discussions (N = 137) conducted between March and June 2012 in Accra, Kumasi, and Manya Krobo. Overall, participants reported low knowledge of PrEP. However, once information about PrEP was provided, there was high acceptability. The primary reason for acceptability was that PrEP provided an extra level of protection against HIV. Acceptability of PrEP was conditioned on it having minimal side effects, being affordable and efficient in preventing HIV infection. No acceptability of PrEP was attributed to limited knowledge of side effects and perceived lack of effectiveness. The reasons provided to utilize PrEP and condoms were that condoms protect against other STIs, and sexual partner factors. This is the first known study to explore PrEP knowledge and acceptability among Ghanaian MSM. It is important that key stakeholders preemptively address potential barriers to PrEP acceptability, uptake, and adherence, especially among MSM, once PrEP becomes available in Ghana.

Temporal trends of population viral suppression in the context of Universal Test and Treat: the ANRS 12249 TasP trial in rural South Africa

INTRODUCTION

The universal test-and-treat (UTT) strategy aims to maximize population viral suppression (PVS), that is, the proportion of all people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral treatment (ART) and virally suppressed, with the goal of reducing HIV transmission at the population level. This article explores the extent to which temporal changes in PVS explain the observed lack of association between universal treatment and cumulative HIV incidence seen in the ANRS 12249 TasP trial conducted in rural South Africa.

METHODS

The TasP cluster-randomized trial (2012 to 2016) implemented six-monthly repeat home-based HIV counselling and testing (RHBCT) and referral of PLHIV to local HIV clinics in 2 × 11 clusters opened sequentially. ART was initiated according to national guidelines in control clusters and regardless of CD4 count in intervention clusters. We measured residency status, HIV status, and HIV care status for each participant on a daily basis. PVS was computed per cluster among all resident PLHIV (≥16, including those not in care) at cluster opening and daily thereafter. We used a mixed linear model to explore time patterns in PVS, adjusting for sociodemographic changes at the cluster level.

RESULTS

8563 PLHIV were followed. During the course of the trial, PVS increased significantly in both arms (23.5% to 46.2% in intervention, +22.8, p < 0.001; 26.0% to 44.6% in control, +18.6, p < 0.001). That increase was similar in both arms (p = 0.514). In the final adjusted model, PVS increase was most associated with increased RHBCT and the implementation of local trial clinics (measured by time since cluster opening). Contextual changes (measured by calendar time) also contributed slightly. The effect of universal ART (trial arm) was positive but limited.

CONCLUSIONS

PVS was improved significantly but similarly in both trial arms, explaining partly the null effect observed in terms of cumulative HIV incidence between arms. The PVS gains due to changes in ART-initiation guidelines alone are relatively small compared to gains obtained by strategies to maximize testing and linkage to care. The achievement of the 90-90-90 targets will not be met if the operational and implementational challenges limiting access to care and treatment, often context-specific, are not properly addressed. Clinical trial number: NCT01509508 (clinicalTrials.gov)/DOH-27-0512-3974 (South African National Clinical Trials Register).

Correlates of HIV infection in adolescent girls and young women in Lesotho: results from a population-based survey

BACKGROUND

HIV acquisition remains high among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW, aged 15-24 years) in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to estimate prevalence and incidence of HIV in AGYW and to identify correlates of HIV infection by using data from the Lesotho Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (LePHIA).

METHODS

LePHIA was a nationally representative survey of adults and children based on a multistage cluster sampling method with random selection of enumeration areas and households. All adults aged 15 years and older who had slept in the household the night before were eligible for participation; participants completed an interview and HIV testing. We estimated incidence with the HIV-1 limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay combined with viral load and examined the association between demographic and behavioural variables (including characteristics of cohabitating mothers and sexual partners, when available) and prevalence and incidence among AGYW using logistic regression, incorporating survey weights.

FINDINGS

We interviewed 8824 households, including 2358 AGYW who were tested for HIV infection. Weighted HIV prevalence was 11·1% (95% CI 9·7-12·5) in the overall population (273 of 2358 AGYW), 5·7% (4·1-7·2) in adolescent girls aged 15-19 years (64 of 1156), and 16·7% (14·4-19·0) in women aged 20-24 years (209 of 1212). Annualised HIV incidence was 1·8% (0·8-2·8). Correlates of prevalent infection include reporting a history of anal sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3·08, 1·11-8·57), having lived outside Lesotho in the past year (1·86, 1·01-3·42), having a partner suspected or known to be HIV positive (11·7, 6·0-22·5), and having two or more lifetime sexual partners (1·84, 1·21-2·78, for 2-3 lifetime sexual partners; 2·44, 1·45-4·08, for ≥4 lifetime sexual partners). For the 570 AGYW living with their mothers, maternal education was negatively associated with HIV prevalence in their daughters (aOR 0·36, 0·15-0·82, per increase in level attended). For AGYW with a cohabitating partner, the factors associated with AGYW infection were partner age (OR 4·54, 1·30-15·80, for partners aged 35-49 years, although the OR was no longer significant when adjusted for HIV status of partner), HIV status (aOR 11·22, 4·05-31·05), lack of viral load suppression (OR 0·16, 0·04-0·66), and partner employment in the past year (aOR 3·41, 1·12-10·42).

INTERPRETATION

The findings confirm the importance of improving the treatment cascade in male partners and targeting preventive interventions to AGYW who are at increased risk. A regional approach to prevention could mitigate the effect of migration on transnational spread of HIV.

FUNDING

President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Home-based intervention to test and start (HITS) protocol: a cluster-randomized controlled trial to reduce HIV-related mortality in men and HIV incidence in women through increased coverage of HIV treatment

BACKGROUND

To realize the full benefits of treatment as prevention in many hyperendemic African contexts, there is an urgent need to increase uptake of HIV testing and HIV treatment among men to reduce the rate of HIV transmission to (particularly young) women. This trial aims to evaluate the effect of two interventions - micro-incentives and a tablet-based male-targeted HIV decision support application - on increasing home-based HIV testing and linkage to HIV care among men with the ultimate aim of reducing HIV-related mortality in men and HIV incidence in young women.

METHODS/DESIGN

This is a cluster randomized trial of 45 communities (clusters) in a rural area in the uMkhanyakude district of KwaZulu Natal, South Africa (2018-2021). The study is built upon the Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI)'s HIV testing platform, which offers annual home-based rapid HIV testing to individuals aged 15 years and above. In a 2 × 2 factorial design, individuals aged ≥15 years living in the 45 clusters are randomly assigned to one of four arms: i) a financial micro-incentive (food voucher) (n = 8); ii) male-targeted HIV specific decision support (EPIC-HIV) (n = 8); iii) both the micro incentives and male-targeted decision support (n = 8); and iv) standard of care (n = 21). The EPIC-HIV application is developed and delivered via a tablet to encourage HIV testing and linkage to care among men. A mixed method approach is adopted to supplement the randomized control trial and meet the study aims.

DISCUSSION

The findings of this trial will provide evidence on the feasibility and causal impact of two interventions - micro-incentives and a male-targeted HIV specific decision support - on uptake of home-based HIV testing, linkage to care, as well as population health outcomes including population viral load, HIV related mortality in men, and HIV incidence in young women (15-30 years of age).

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial was registered on 28 November 2018 on, identifier https://clinicaltrials.gov/ .

Effect of Universal Testing and Treatment on HIV Incidence - HPTN 071 (PopART)

BACKGROUND

A universal testing and treatment strategy is a potential approach to reduce the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, yet previous trial results are inconsistent.

METHODS

In the HPTN 071 (PopART) community-randomized trial conducted from 2013 through 2018, we randomly assigned 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa (total population, approximately 1 million) to group A (combination prevention intervention with universal antiretroviral therapy [ART]), group B (the prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines [universal since 2016]), or group C (standard care). The prevention intervention included home-based HIV testing delivered by community workers, who also supported linkage to HIV care and ART adherence. The primary outcome, HIV incidence between months 12 and 36, was measured in a population cohort of approximately 2000 randomly sampled adults (18 to 44 years of age) per community. Viral suppression (<400 copies of HIV RNA per milliliter) was assessed in all HIV-positive participants at 24 months.

RESULTS

The population cohort included 48,301 participants. Baseline HIV prevalence was 21% or 22% in each group. Between months 12 and 36, a total of 553 new HIV infections were observed during 39,702 person-years (1.4 per 100 person-years; women, 1.7; men, 0.8). The adjusted rate ratio for group A as compared with group C was 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 1.18; P = 0.51) and for group B as compared with group C was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.88; P = 0.006). The percentage of HIV-positive participants with viral suppression at 24 months was 71.9% in group A, 67.5% in group B, and 60.2% in group C. The estimated percentage of HIV-positive adults in the community who were receiving ART at 36 months was 81% in group A and 80% in group B.

CONCLUSIONS

A combination prevention intervention with ART provided according to local guidelines resulted in a 30% lower incidence of HIV infection than standard care. The lack of effect with universal ART was unanticipated and not consistent with the data on viral suppression. In this trial setting, universal testing and treatment reduced the population-level incidence of HIV infection. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; HPTN 071 [PopArt] ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01900977.).

A method for statistical analysis of repeated residential movements to link human mobility and HIV acquisition

We propose a method for analyzing repeated residential movements based on graphical loglinear models. This method allows an explicit representation of residential presence and absence patterns from several areas without defining mobility measures. We make use of our method to analyze data from one of the most comprehensive demographic surveillance sites in Africa that is characterized by high adult HIV prevalence, high levels of poverty and unemployment and frequent residential changes. Between 2004 and 2016, residential changes were recorded for 8,857 men over 35,500.01 person-years, and for 12,158 women over 57,945.35 person-years. These individuals were HIV negative at baseline. Over the study duration, there were a total of 806 HIV seroconversions in men, and 2,458 HIV seroconversions in women. Our method indicates that establishing a residence outside the rural study area is a strong predictor of HIV seroconversion in men (OR = 2.003, 95% CI = [1.718,2.332]), but not in women. Residing inside the rural study area in a single or in multiple locations is a less significant risk factor for HIV acquisition in both men and women compared to moving outside the rural study area.

Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017

HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15-49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.