Evaluating strategies to improve rotavirus vaccine impact during the second year of life in Malawi

Impact of dosing schedules on performance of rotavirus vaccines in Ghana

Background

Available live-oral rotavirus vaccines are associated with low to moderate performance in low- and middle-income settings. There is limited evidence relating to how the vaccine dosing schedule might be adjusted to improve vaccine performance in these settings.

Methods

We used mathematical models fitted to rotavirus surveillance data for children <5 years of age from three different hospitals in Ghana (Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital in Accra, Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital in Kumasi and War Memorial Hospital in Navrongo) to project the impact of rotavirus vaccination over a 10-year period (April 2012-March 2022). We quantified and compared the impact of the previous vaccination program in Ghana to the model-predicted impact for other vaccine dosing schedules across the three hospitals and the entire country, under different assumptions about vaccine protection. To project the rotavirus vaccine impact over Ghana, we sampled from the range of model parameters for Accra and Navrongo, assuming that these two settings represent the "extremes" of rotavirus epidemiology within Ghana.

Results

For the previously implemented 6/10-week monovalent Rotarix vaccine (RV1) schedule, the model-estimated average annual incidence of moderate-to-severe rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis (RVGE) ranged between 1,151 and 3,002 per 100,000 people per year over the 10-year period for the three sites. Compared to no vaccination, the model-estimated median percentage reductions in RVGE ranged from 28-85% and 12-71% among children <1 year and <5 years of age respectively, with the highest and lowest percentage reductions predicted using model parameters estimated for Accra and Navrongo, respectively. The median predicted reductions in RVGE for the whole country ranged from 57-66% and 35-45% among children <1 year and <5 years of age, respectively. The 1/6/10- and 6/10/14-week schedules provided the best and comparable reductions in RVGE compared to the original 6/10-week schedule, whereas there was no improvement in impact for the 10/14-week schedule.

Conclusions

We found that administering an additional dose of RV1 might be an effective strategy to improve rotavirus vaccine impact, particularly in settings with low vaccine effectiveness. The results could be extrapolated to other countries using a 2-dose vaccine schedule with low to moderate vaccine performance.

Impact of rotavirus vaccination in Malawi from 2012 to 2022 compared to model predictions before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

Rotarix® rotavirus vaccine was introduced into the Malawi national immunization program in October 2012. We used a previously developed mathematical models to estimate overall vaccine effectiveness over a 10-year period following rotavirus vaccine introduction.

Methods

We analyzed data on children <5 years old hospitalized with acute gastroenteritis in Blantyre, Malawi from January 2012 to June 2022, compared to pre-vaccination data. We estimated vaccine coverage before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic using data from rotavirus-negative children. We compared model predictions for the weekly number of rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis (RVGE) cases to the observed number by age to validate model predictions and estimate overall vaccine effectiveness.

Results

The number of RVGE and rotavirus-negative acute gastroenteritis cases declined substantially following vaccine introduction. Vaccine coverage among rotavirus-negative controls was >90% with two doses by July 2014, and declined to a low of ~80% in October 2020, before returning to pre-pandemic levels by July 2021. Our models captured the post-vaccination trends in RVGE incidence, with 5.4% to 19.4% of observed weekly RVGE cases falling outside of the 95% prediction intervals. Comparing observed RVGE cases to the model-predicted incidence without vaccination, overall vaccine effectiveness was estimated to be 36.0% (95% prediction interval: 33.6%, 39.9%) peaking in 2014 and was highest in infants (52.5%; 95% prediction interval: 50.1%, 54.9%).

Conclusions

Overall effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Malawi is modest despite high vaccine coverage and has plateaued since 2016. Our mathematical models provide a validated platform for assessing strategies to improve rotavirus vaccine impact.

A Viral Protein 4-Based Trivalent Nanoparticle Vaccine Elicited High and Broad Immune Responses and Protective Immunity against the Predominant Rotaviruses

The current live rotavirus (RV) vaccines show reduced effectiveness in developing countries, calling for vaccine strategies with improved efficacy and safety. We generated pseudovirus nanoparticles (PVNPs) that display multiple ectodomains of RV viral protein 4 (VP4), named S-VP4e, as a nonreplicating RV vaccine candidate. The RV spike protein VP4s that bind host receptors and facilitate viral entry are excellent targets for vaccination. In this study, we developed scalable methods to produce three S-VP4e PVNPs, each displaying the VP4e antigens from one of the three predominant P[8], P[4], and P[6] human RVs (HRVs). These PVNPs were recognized by selected neutralizing VP4-specific monoclonal antibodies, bound glycan receptors, attached to permissive HT-29 cells, and underwent cleavage by trypsin between VP8* and VP5*. 3D PVNP models were constructed to understand their structural features. A trivalent PVNP vaccine containing the three S-VP4e PVNPs elicited high and well-balanced VP4e-specific antibody titers in mice directed against the three predominant HRV P types. The resulting antisera neutralized the three HRV prototypes at high titers; greater than 4-fold higher than the neutralizing responses induced by a trivalent vaccine consisting of the S60-VP8* PVNPs. Finally, the trivalent S-VP4e PVNP vaccine provided 90-100% protection against diarrhea caused by HRV challenge. Our data supports the trivalent S-VP4e PVNPs as a promising nonreplicating HRV vaccine candidate for parenteral delivery to circumvent the suboptimal immunization issues of all present live HRV vaccines. The established PVNP-permissive cell and PVNP-glycan binding assays will be instrumental for further investigating HRV-host cell interactions and neutralizing effects of VP4-specific antibodies and antivirals.

Prediction of effectiveness of universal rotavirus vaccination in Southwestern Vietnam based on a dynamic mathematical model

Vaccinating young children against rotavirus (RV) is a promising preventive strategy against rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE). We evaluated the relative risk reduction of RVGE induced by universal vaccination in Vietnam through dynamic model analysis. We developed an age-stratified dynamic Vaccinated-Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible model to analyze RV transmission and assess vaccine effectiveness (VE). We assumed 3 different vaccine efficacies: 55%, 70%, and 85%. For model calibration, we used a database of patients under 5 years of age admitted to Ho Chi Minh No.1 Hospital with RVGE between January 2013 and December 2018. Assuming a vaccination rate of 95%, the number of RVGE hospitalizations after 5 years from universal RV vaccination decreased from 92,502 cases to 45,626 with 85% efficacy, to 54,576 cases with 70% efficacy, and to 63,209 cases with 55% efficacy. Additionally, RVGE hospitalizations after 10 years decreased from 177,950 to 89,517 with 85% efficacy and to 121,832 cases with 55% efficacy. The relative risk reductions of RVGE after 10 years were 49.7% with 85% efficacy, 40.6% with 70% efficacy, and 31.5% with 55% efficacy. The VE was 1.10 times (95% CI, 1.01-1.22) higher in the 4-months to 1-year-old age group than in the other age groups (P = 0.038), when applying 85% efficacy with 95% coverage. In conclusion, despite its relatively lower efficacy compared to high-income countries, RV vaccination remains an effective intervention in Southwestern Vietnam. In particular, implementing universal RV vaccination with higher coverage would result in a decrease in RVGE hospitalizations among Vietnamese children under 5 years of age.

Acute rotavirus infection is associated with the induction of circulating memory CD4+ T cell subsets

Strong CD4+ T cell-mediated immune protection following rotavirus infection has been observed in animal models, but its relevance in humans remains unclear. Here, we characterized acute and convalescent CD4+ T cell responses in children who were hospitalized with rotavirus-positive and rotavirus-negative diarrhoea in Blantyre, Malawi. Children presenting with laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infection had higher proportions of effector and central memory T helper 2 cells during acute infection i.e., at disease presentation compared to convalescence, 28 days post-infection defined by a follow-up 28 days after acute infection. However, circulating cytokine-producing (IFN-γ and/or TNF-α) rotavirus-specific VP6-specific CD4+ T cells were rarely detectable in children with rotavirus infection at both acute and convalescent stages. Moreover, following whole blood mitogenic stimulation, the responding CD4+ T cells were predominantly non-cytokine producers of IFN-γ and/or TNF-α. Our findings demonstrate limited induction of anti-viral IFN-γ and/or TNF-α-producing CD4+ T cells in rotavirus-vaccinated Malawian children following the development of laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infection.

Combined Live Oral Priming and Intramuscular Boosting Regimen with Rotarix® and a Nanoparticle-Based Trivalent Rotavirus Vaccine Evaluated in Gnotobiotic Pig Models of G4P[6] and G1P[8] Human Rotavirus Infection

Human rotavirus (HRV) is the causative agent of severe dehydrating diarrhea in children under the age of five, resulting in up to 215,000 deaths each year. These deaths almost exclusively occur in low- and middle-income countries where vaccine efficacy is the lowest due to chronic malnutrition, gut dysbiosis, and concurrent enteric viral infection. Parenteral vaccines for HRV are particularly attractive as they avoid many of the concerns associated with currently used live oral vaccines. In this study, a two-dose intramuscular (IM) regimen of the trivalent, nanoparticle-based, nonreplicating HRV vaccine (trivalent S60-VP8*), utilizing the shell (S) domain of the capsid of norovirus as an HRV VP8* antigen display platform, was evaluated for immunogenicity and protective efficacy against P[6] and P[8] HRV using gnotobiotic pig models. A prime-boost strategy using one dose of the oral Rotarix® vaccine, followed by one dose of the IM trivalent nanoparticle vaccine was also evaluated. Both regimens were highly immunogenic in inducing serum virus neutralizing, IgG, and IgA antibodies. The two vaccine regimens failed to confer significant protection against diarrhea; however, the prime-boost regimen significantly shortened the duration of virus shedding in pigs challenged orally with the virulent Wa (G1P[8]) HRV and significantly shortened the mean duration of virus shedding, mean peak titer, and area under the curve of virus shedding after challenge with Arg (G4P[6]) HRV. Prime-boost-vaccinated pigs challenged with P[8] HRV had significantly higher P[8]-specific IgG antibody-secreting cells (ASCs) in the spleen post-challenge. Prime-boost-vaccinated pigs challenged with P[6] HRV had significantly higher numbers of P[6]- and P[8]-specific IgG ASCs in the ileum, as well as significantly higher numbers of P[8]-specific IgA ASCs in the spleen post-challenge. These results suggest the promise of and warrant further investigation into the oral priming and parenteral boosting strategy for future HRV vaccines.

Predicting indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination programs on rotavirus mortality among children in 112 countries

Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhea deaths in children, particularly in low-to-middle income countries (LMICs). Licensed rotavirus vaccines provide strong direct protection, but their indirect effect-the protection due to reduced transmission-is not fully understood. We aimed to quantify the population-level effects of rotavirus vaccination and identify factors that drive indirect protection. We used an SIR-like transmission model to estimate the indirect effects of vaccination on rotavirus deaths in 112 LMICs. We performed a regression analysis to identify predictors of indirect effect magnitude (linear regression) and the occurrence of negative indirect effects (logistic regression). Indirect effects contributed to vaccine impacts in all regions, with effect sizes 8-years post-vaccine introduction ranging from 16.9% in the WHO European region to 1.0% in the Western Pacific region. Indirect effect estimates were higher in countries with higher under-5 mortality, higher vaccine coverage, and lower birth rates. Of the 112 countries analyzed, 18 (16%) had at least 1 year with a predicted negative indirect effect. Negative indirect effects were more common in countries with higher birth rate, lower under-5 mortality and lower vaccine coverage. Rotavirus vaccination may have a larger impact than would be expected from direct effects alone, but the impact of these indirect effects is expected to vary by country.

Predicting the long-term impact of rotavirus vaccination in 112 countries from 2006 to 2034: A transmission modeling analysis

Rotavirus vaccination has been shown to reduce rotavirus burden in many countries, but the long-term magnitude of vaccine impacts is unclear, particularly in low-income countries. We use a transmission model to estimate the long-term impact of rotavirus vaccination on deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) from 2006 to 2034 for 112 low- and middle-income countries. We also explore the predicted effectiveness of a one- vs two- dose series and the relative contribution of direct vs indirect effects to overall impacts. To validate the model, we compare predicted percent reductions in severe rotavirus cases with the percent reduction in rotavirus positivity among gastroenteritis hospital admissions for 10 countries with pre- and post-vaccine introduction data. We estimate that vaccination would reduce deaths from rotavirus by 49.1 % (95 % UI: 46.6-54.3 %) by 2034 under realistic coverage scenarios, compared to a scenario without vaccination. Most of this benefit is due to direct benefit to vaccinated individuals (explaining 69-97 % of the overall impact), but indirect protection also appears to enhance impacts. We find that a one-dose schedule would only be about 57 % as effective as a two-dose schedule 12 years after vaccine introduction. Our model closely reproduced observed reductions in rotavirus positivity in the first few years after vaccine introduction in select countries. Rotavirus vaccination is likely to have a substantial impact on rotavirus gastroenteritis and its mortality burden. To sustain this benefit, the complete series of doses is needed.

A Pseudovirus Nanoparticle-Based Trivalent Rotavirus Vaccine Candidate Elicits High and Cross P Type Immune Response

Rotavirus infection continues to cause significant morbidity and mortality globally. In this study, we further developed the S60-VP8* pseudovirus nanoparticles (PVNPs) displaying the glycan receptor binding VP8* domains of rotavirus spike proteins as a parenteral vaccine candidate. First, we established a scalable method for the large production of tag-free S60-VP8* PVNPs representing four rotavirus P types, P[8], P[4], P[6], and P[11]. The approach consists of two major steps: selective precipitation of the S-VP8* proteins from bacterial lysates using ammonium sulfate, followed by anion exchange chromatography to further purify the target proteins to a high purity. The purified soluble proteins self-assembled into S60-VP8* PVNPs. Importantly, after intramuscular injections, the trivalent vaccine consisting of three PVNPs covering VP8* antigens of P[8], P[4], and P[6] rotaviruses elicited high and broad immunogenicity in mice toward the three predominant P-type rotaviruses. Specifically, the trivalent vaccine-immunized mouse sera showed (1) high and balanced IgG and IgA antibody titers toward all three VP8* types, (2) high blocking titer against the VP8*-glycan receptor interaction, and (3) high and broad neutralizing titers against replications of all P[8], P[4], and P[6] rotaviruses. Therefore, trivalent S60-VP8* PVNPs are a promising non-replicating, parenteral vaccine candidate against the most prevalent rotaviruses worldwide.

Impact and effectiveness of monovalent rotavirus vaccine in Tajik children

BACKGROUND

In 2015, Tajikistan became the second country in Central Asia to introduce rotavirus vaccine into its national immunization program. Before vaccine introduction, rotavirus was estimated to cause > 40% of pediatric diarrhea hospitalizations in Tajikistan. We aimed to assess the impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction on rotavirus disease burden and estimate rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE).

METHODS

Using surveillance data from 2013 through 2019, we examined trends in monthly hospital admissions among children < 5 years old, before and after rotavirus vaccine introduction. Poisson regression was used to quantify decreases. VE was estimated using a test-negative case control design, with data from admissions during 2017 - 2019. Immunization records were obtained from clinics.

RESULTS

Among enrolled children, rotavirus positivity declined from 42% to 25% in the post-vaccine introduction period, a decrease of 41% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 36 - 45%). Declines were greatest in children < 12 months of age. Estimated VE of a complete course of rotavirus vaccine was 55% (95% CI: 21 - 73%) among children 5 - 59 months of age and 64% (95% CI: 36 - 80%) among children 5 - 23 months of age. VE point estimates were higher among children receiving both doses of rotavirus vaccine non-concurrently with OPV and among children receiving their first dose of rotavirus vaccine at 4 - 11 months of age, but CIs were wide and overlapping.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data demonstrate that rotavirus vaccine introduction was associated with a substantial reduction in pediatric rotavirus hospitalization burden in Tajikistan, and that rotavirus vaccination is effective in Tajik children.

Effectiveness of Monovalent Rotavirus Vaccine in Mozambique, a Country with a High Burden of Chronic Malnutrition

Mozambique introduced monovalent rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix®) in September 2015. We evaluated the effectiveness of Rotarix® under conditions of routine use in Mozambican children hospitalized with acute gastroenteritis (AGE). A test negative case-control analysis was performed on data collected during 2017−2019 from children <5 years old, admitted with AGE in seven sentinel hospital sites in Mozambique. Adjusted VE was calculated for ≥1 dose of vaccine vs. zero doses using unconditional logistic regression, where VE = (1 − aOR) × 100%. VE estimates were stratified by age group, AGE severity, malnutrition, and genotype. Among 689 children eligible for analysis, 23.7% were rotavirus positive (cases) and 76.3% were negative (controls). The adjusted VE of ≥1 dose in children aged 6−11 months was 52.0% (95% CI, −11, 79), and −24.0% (95% CI, −459, 62) among children aged 12−23 months. Estimated VE was lower in stunted than non-stunted children (14% (95% CI, −138, 66) vs. 59% (95% CI, −125, 91)). Rotavirus vaccination appeared moderately effective against rotavirus gastroenteritis hospitalization in young Mozambican children. VE point estimates were lower in older and stunted children, although confidence intervals were wide and overlapped across strata. These findings provide additional evidence for other high-mortality countries considering rotavirus vaccine introduction.

Understanding Rotavirus Vaccine Efficacy and Effectiveness in Countries with High Child Mortality

Rotavirus claims thousands of lives of children globally every year with a disproportionately high burden in low- and lower-middle income countries where access to health care is limited. Oral, live-attenuated rotavirus vaccines have been evaluated in multiple settings in both low- and high-income populations and have been shown to be safe and efficacious. However, the vaccine efficacy observed in low-income settings with high rotavirus and diarrheal mortality was significantly lower than that seen in high-income populations where rotavirus mortality is less common. Rotavirus vaccines have been introduced and rolled out in more than 112 countries, providing the opportunity to assess effectiveness of the vaccines in these different settings. We provide an overview of the efficacy, effectiveness, and impact of rotavirus vaccines, focusing on high-mortality settings and identify the knowledge gaps for future research. Despite lower efficacy, rotavirus vaccines substantially reduce diarrheal disease and mortality and are cost-effective in countries with high burden. Continued evaluation of the effectiveness, impact, and cost-benefit of rotavirus vaccines, especially the new candidates that have been recently approved for global use, is a key factor for new vaccine introductions in countries, or for a switch of vaccine product in countries with limited resources.

The efficacy and safety of rotavirus vaccines in countries in Africa and Asia with high child mortality

Rotavirus remains a leading cause of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in young children and rotavirus vaccines are critical for reducing global disease burden. This report addresses the performance of rotavirus vaccines in countries with high child mortality. We performed a sensitivity analysis as part of a systematic review on rotavirus vaccines to inform development of World Health Organization vaccine recommendations. The efficacy of four prequalified vaccines against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis was similar across high mortality settings in Asia and Africa. Within the first year following vaccination, vaccine efficacy for the four vaccines ranged from 48% to 57% while in the second year, efficacy ranged from 29% to 54%. The four vaccines showed no increase in intussusception risk in these settings. All four vaccines appear to prevent significant numbers of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis episodes with no measurable increase in intussusception risk in high mortality settings in Africa and Asia.

Does Anybody Want an Injectable Rotavirus Vaccine, and Why? Understanding the Public Health Value Proposition of Next-Generation Rotavirus Vaccines

Routine infant immunization with live, oral rotavirus vaccines (LORVs) has had a major impact on severe gastroenteritis disease. Nevertheless, in high morbidity and mortality settings rotavirus remains an important cause of disease, partly attributable to the sub-optimal clinical efficacy of LORVs in those settings. Regardless of the precise immunological mechanism(s) underlying the diminished efficacy, the introduction of injectable next-generation rotavirus vaccines (iNGRV), currently in clinical development, could offer a potent remedy. In addition to the potential for greater clinical efficacy, precisely how iNGRVs are delivered (multiple doses to young infants; alongside LORVs or as a booster; co-formulated with Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis (DTP)-containing vaccines), their pricing, and their storage and cold chain characteristics could each have major implications on the resultant health outcomes, on cost-effectiveness as well as on product preferences by national stakeholders and healthcare providers. To better understand these implications, we critically assessed whether there is a compelling public health value proposition for iNGRVs based on potential (but still hypothetical) vaccine profiles. Our results suggest that the answer is highly dependent on the specific use cases and potential attributes of such novel vaccines. Notably, co-formulation of iNGRVs with similar or greater efficacy than LORVs with a DTP-containing vaccine, such as DTP-Hib-HepB, scored especially high on potential impact, cost-effectiveness, and strength of preference by national stakeholders and health care providers in lower and middle income countries.

Vaccines for preventing rotavirus diarrhoea: vaccines in use

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus is a common cause of diarrhoea, diarrhoea-related hospital admissions, and diarrhoea-related deaths worldwide. Rotavirus vaccines prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) include Rotarix (GlaxoSmithKline), RotaTeq (Merck), and, more recently, Rotasiil (Serum Institute of India Ltd.), and Rotavac (Bharat Biotech Ltd.).

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate rotavirus vaccines prequalified by the WHO for their efficacy and safety in children.

SEARCH METHODS

On 30 November 2020, we searched PubMed, the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, CENTRAL (published in the Cochrane Library), Embase, LILACS, Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Sciences Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science, Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Social Science & Humanities. We also searched the WHO ICTRP, ClinicalTrials.gov, clinical trial reports from manufacturers' websites, and reference lists of included studies, and relevant systematic reviews.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We selected randomized controlled trials (RCTs) conducted in children that compared rotavirus vaccines prequalified for use by the WHO with either placebo or no intervention.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently assessed trial eligibility and assessed risk of bias. One author extracted data and a second author cross-checked them. We combined dichotomous data using the risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). We stratified the analyses by under-five country mortality rate and used GRADE to evaluate evidence certainty.

MAIN RESULTS

Sixty trials met the inclusion criteria and enrolled a total of 228,233 participants. Thirty-six trials (119,114 participants) assessed Rotarix, 15 trials RotaTeq (88,934 participants), five trials Rotasiil (11,753 participants), and four trials Rotavac (8432 participants). Rotarix Infants vaccinated and followed up for the first year of life In low-mortality countries, Rotarix prevented 93% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (14,976 participants, 4 trials; high-certainty evidence), and 52% of severe all-cause diarrhoea cases (3874 participants, 1 trial; moderate-certainty evidence).  In medium-mortality countries, Rotarix prevented 79% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (31,671 participants, 4 trials; high-certainty evidence), and 36% of severe all-cause diarrhoea cases (26,479 participants, 2 trials; high-certainty evidence).  In high-mortality countries, Rotarix prevented 58% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (15,882 participants, 4 trials; high-certainty evidence), and 27% of severe all-cause diarrhoea cases (5639 participants, 2 trials; high-certainty evidence). Children vaccinated and followed up for two years In low-mortality countries, Rotarix prevented 90% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (18,145 participants, 6 trials; high-certainty evidence), and 51% of severe all-cause diarrhoea episodes (6269 participants, 2 trials; moderate-certainty evidence).   In medium-mortality countries, Rotarix prevented 77% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (28,834 participants, 3 trials; high-certainty evidence), and 26% of severe all-cause diarrhoea cases (23,317 participants, 2 trials; moderate-certainty evidence).  In high-mortality countries, Rotarix prevented 35% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (13,768 participants, 2 trials; moderate-certainty evidence), and 17% of severe all-cause diarrhoea cases (2764 participants, 1 trial; high-certainty evidence). RotaTeq Infants vaccinated and followed up for the first year of life In low-mortality countries, RotaTeq prevented 97% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (5442 participants, 2 trials; high-certainty evidence).  In medium-mortality countries, RotaTeq prevented 79% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (3863 participants, 1 trial; low-certainty evidence).  In high-mortality countries, RotaTeq prevented 57% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (6775 participants, 2 trials; high-certainty evidence), but there is probably little or no difference between vaccine and placebo for severe all-cause diarrhoea (1 trial, 4085 participants; moderate-certainty evidence).  Children vaccinated and followed up for two years In low-mortality countries, RotaTeq prevented 96% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (5442 participants, 2 trials; high-certainty evidence).  In medium-mortality countries, RotaTeq prevented 79% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (3863 participants, 1 trial; low-certainty evidence).  In high-mortality countries, RotaTeq prevented 44% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (6744 participants, 2 trials; high-certainty evidence), and 15% of severe all-cause diarrhoea cases (5977 participants, 2 trials; high-certainty evidence).  We did not identify RotaTeq studies reporting on severe all-cause diarrhoea in low- or medium-mortality countries. Rotasiil Rotasiil has not been assessed in any RCT in countries with low or medium child mortality. Infants vaccinated and followed up for the first year of life In high-mortality countries, Rotasiil prevented 48% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (11,008 participants, 2 trials; high-certainty evidence), and resulted in little to no difference in severe all-cause diarrhoea cases (11,008 participants, 2 trials; high-certainty evidence). Children vaccinated and followed up for two years In high-mortality countries, Rotasiil prevented 44% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (11,008 participants, 2 trials; high-certainty evidence), and resulted in little to no difference in severe all-cause diarrhoea cases (11,008 participants, 2 trials; high-certainty evidence). Rotavac Rotavac has not been assessed in any RCT in countries with low or medium child mortality.  Infants vaccinated and followed up for the first year of life In high-mortality countries, Rotavac prevented 57% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (6799 participants, 1 trial; moderate-certainty evidence), and 16% of severe all-cause diarrhoea cases (6799 participants, 1 trial; moderate-certainty evidence). Children vaccinated and followed up for two years In high-mortality countries, Rotavac prevented 54% of severe rotavirus diarrhoea cases (6541 participants, 1 trial; moderate-certainty evidence); no Rotavac studies have reported on severe all-cause diarrhoea at two-years follow-up. Safety No increased risk of serious adverse events (SAEs) was detected with Rotarix (103,714 participants, 31 trials; high-certainty evidence), RotaTeq (82,502 participants, 14 trials; moderate to high-certainty evidence), Rotasiil (11,646 participants, 3 trials; high-certainty evidence), or Rotavac (8210 participants, 3 trials; moderate-certainty evidence). Deaths were infrequent and the analysis had insufficient evidence to show an effect on all-cause mortality. Intussusception was rare.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Rotarix, RotaTeq, Rotasiil, and Rotavac prevent episodes of rotavirus diarrhoea. The relative effect estimate is smaller in high-mortality than in low-mortality countries, but more episodes are prevented in high-mortality settings as the baseline risk is higher. In high-mortality countries some results suggest lower efficacy in the second year. We found no increased risk of serious adverse events, including intussusception, from any of the prequalified rotavirus vaccines.

Plasma rotavirus-specific IgA and risk of rotavirus vaccine failure in infants in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus vaccine efficacy is reduced in low-income populations, but efforts to improve vaccine performance are limited by lack of clear correlates of protection. While plasma rotavirus (RV)-specific IgA appears strongly associated with protection against rotavirus gastroenteritis in high-income countries, weaker association has been observed in low-income countries. We tested the hypothesis that lower RV-specific IgA is associated with rotavirus vaccine failure in Malawian infants.

METHODS

In a case-control study we recruited infants presenting with severe rotavirus gastroenteritis following monovalent oral rotavirus vaccination (RV1 vaccine failures). Conditional logistic regression was used to determine the odds of rotavirus seronegativity (RV-specific IgA<20 U/mL) in these cases compared 1:1 with age-matched, vaccinated, asymptomatic community controls. Plasma RV-specific IgA was determined by ELISA for all participants at recruitment, and for cases at 10 days post symptom onset. Rotavirus infection and genotype were determined by antigen testing and RT-PCR respectively.

RESULTS

In 116 age-matched pairs, infants with RV1 vaccine failure were more likely to be RV-specific IgA seronegative than controls: OR 3.1 (95%CI 1.6-5.9), p=0.001. In 60 infants with convalescent serology, 42/45 (93%, 95%CI 81-98%) infants seronegative at baseline became seropositive. Median rise in RV-specific IgA concentration following acute infection was 112.8 (IQR 19.1-380.6) fold.

CONCLUSIONS

In this vaccinated population with high residual burden of rotavirus disease, RV1 vaccine failure was associated with lower RV-specific IgA, providing further evidence of RV-specific IgA as a marker of protection. Robust convalescent RV-specific IgA response in vaccine failures suggests differences in wild-type and vaccine-induced immunity, which informs future vaccine development.

The Challenge of Achieving Immunity Through Multiple-Dose Vaccines in Madagascar

Administration of many childhood vaccines requires that multiple doses be delivered within a narrow time window to provide adequate protection and reduce disease transmission. Accurately quantifying vaccination coverage is complicated by limited individual-level data and multiple vaccination mechanisms (routine and supplementary vaccination programs). We analyzed 12,541 vaccination cards from 6 districts across Madagascar for children born in 2015 and 2016. For 3 vaccines-pentavalent diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-hepatitis B-Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine (DTP-HB-Hib; 3 doses), 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10; 3 doses), and rotavirus vaccine (2 doses)-we used dates of vaccination and birth to estimate coverage at 1 year of age and timeliness of delivery. Vaccination coverage at age 1 year for the first dose was consistently high, with decreases for subsequent doses (DTP-HB-Hib: 91%, 81%, and 72%; PCV10: 82%, 74%, and 64%; rotavirus: 73% and 63%). Coverage levels between urban districts and their rural counterparts did not differ consistently. For each dose of DTP-HB-Hib, the overall percentage of individuals receiving late doses was 29%, 7%, and 6%, respectively; estimates were similar for other vaccines. Supplementary vaccination weeks, held to help children who had missed routine care to catch up, did not appear to increase the likelihood of being vaccinated. Maintaining population-level immunity with multiple-dose vaccines requires a robust stand-alone routine immunization program.

Community transmission of rotavirus infection in a vaccinated population in Blantyre, Malawi: a prospective household cohort study

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus vaccine effectiveness is reduced among children in low-income countries. Indirect (transmission-mediated) effects of rotavirus vaccine might contribute to the total population effect of vaccination. We aimed to examine risk factors for transmission of rotavirus to household contacts in Blantyre, Malawi, and estimated the effectiveness of rotavirus vaccine in preventing transmission of infection to household contacts.

METHODS

In this prospective household cohort study, we recruited children born after Sept 17, 2012, and aged at least 6 weeks (vaccine-eligible children) with acute rotavirus gastroenteritis and their household contacts, in four government health facilities in Blantyre, Malawi. Clinical data, a bulk stool sample, and 1-2 mL of serum were collected from case children at presentation. Clinical data and stool samples were also prospectively collected from household contacts over 14 days from presentation. A single stool sample was collected from control households containing asymptomatic children who were frequency age-matched to case children. Samples were tested for rotavirus using semi-quantitative real-time PCR and for anti-rotavirus IgA using a semi-quantitative sandwich ELISA. Risk factors for household transmission of rotavirus infection and clinical disease, including disease severity and faecal shedding density, were identified using mixed effects logistic regression. Vaccine effectiveness against transmission was estimated as 1 minus the ratio of secondary attack rates in vaccinated and counterfactual unvaccinated populations, using vaccine effectiveness estimates from the associated diarrhoeal surveillance platform to estimate the counterfactual secondary attack rate without vaccination.

FINDINGS

Between Feb 16, 2015, and Nov 11, 2016, we recruited 196 case households (705 members) and 55 control households (153 members). Household secondary attack rate for rotavirus infection was high (434 [65%] of 665 individuals) and secondary attack rate for clinical disease was much lower (37 [5%] of 698). Asymptomatic infection in control households was common (40 [28%] of 144). Increasing disease severity in an index child (as measured by Vesikari score) was associated with increased risk of transmission of infection (odds ratio 1·17 [95% CI 1·06-1·30) and disease (1·28 [1·08-1·52]) to household contacts. Estimated vaccine effectiveness against transmission was 39% (95% CI 16-57).

INTERPRETATION

Rotavirus vaccine has the potential to substantially reduce household rotavirus transmission. This finding should be considered in clinical and health economic assessments of vaccine effectiveness.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, US National Institutes of Health, and US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

The basic reproductive number and particle-to-plaque ratio: comparison of these two parameters of viral infectivity

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought more widespread attention to the basic reproductive number (R_o), an epidemiologic measurement. A lesser-known measure of virologic infectivity is the particle-to-plaque ratio (P:PFU). We suggest that comparison between the two parameters may assist in better understanding viral transmission dynamics.

Effects of rotavirus NSP4 protein on the immune response and protection of the SR69A-VP8* nanoparticle rotavirus vaccine

Rotavirus causes severe diarrhea and dehydration in young children. Even with the implementation of the current live vaccines, rotavirus infections still cause significant mortality and morbidity, indicating a need for new rotavirus vaccines with improved efficacy. To this end, we have developed an SR69A-VP8*/S60-VP8* nanoparticle rotavirus vaccine candidate that will be delivered parenterally with Alum adjuvant. In this study, as parts of our further development of this nanoparticle vaccine, we evaluated 1) roles of rotavirus nonstructural protein 4 (NSP4) that is the rotavirus enterotoxin, a possible vaccine target, and an immune stimulator, and 2) effects of CpG adjuvant that is a toll-like receptor 9 (TLR9) ligand and agonist on the immune response and protection of our SR69A-VP8*/S60-VP8* nanoparticle vaccine. The resulted vaccine candidates were examined for their IgG responses in mice. In addition, the resulted mouse sera were assessed for i) blocking titers against interactions of rotavirus VP8* proteins with their glycan ligands, ii) neutralization titers against rotavirus replication in cell culture, and iii) passive protection against rotavirus challenge with diarrhea in suckling mice. Our data showed that the Alum adjuvant appeared to work better with the SR69A-VP8*/S60-VP8* nanoparticles than the CpG adjuvant, while an addition of the NSP4 antigen to the SR69A-VP8*/S60-VP8* vaccine may not help to further increase the immune response and protection of the resulted vaccine.

A Nanoparticle-Based Trivalent Vaccine Targeting the Glycan Binding VP8* Domains of Rotaviruses

Rotavirus causes severe gastroenteritis in children. Although vaccines are implemented, rotavirus-related diarrhea still claims ~200,000 lives annually worldwide, mainly in low-income settings, pointing to a need for improved vaccine tactics. To meet such a public health need, a P24-VP8* nanoparticle displaying the glycan-binding VP8* domains, the major neutralizing antigens of rotavirus, was generated as a new type of rotavirus vaccine. We reported here our development of a P24-VP8* nanoparticle-based trivalent vaccine. First, we established a method to produce tag-free P24-VP8* nanoparticles presenting the VP8*s of P[8], P[4], and P[6] rotaviruses, respectively, which are the three predominantly circulating rotavirus P types globally. This approach consists of a chemical-based protein precipitation and an ion exchange purification, which may be scaled up for large vaccine production. All three P24-VP8* nanoparticle types self-assembled efficiently with authentic VP8*-glycan receptor binding function. After they were mixed as a trivalent vaccine, we showed that intramuscular immunization of the vaccine elicited high IgG titers specific to the three homologous VP8* types in mice. The resulted mouse sera strongly neutralized replication of all three rotavirus P types in cell culture. Thus, the trivalent P24-VP8* nanoparticles are a promising vaccine candidate for parenteral use against multiple P types of predominant rotaviruses.

Rotavirus Genotypes in Hospitalized Children with Acute Gastroenteritis Before and After Rotavirus Vaccine Introduction in Blantyre, Malawi, 1997 - 2019

Background

Rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix [RV1]) has reduced diarrhea-associated hospitalizations and deaths in Malawi. We examined the trends in circulating rotavirus genotypes in Malawi over a 22-year period to assess the impact of RV1 introduction on strain distribution.

Methods

Data on rotavirus-positive stool specimens among children aged <5 years hospitalized with diarrhea in Blantyre, Malawi before (July 1997–October 2012, n = 1765) and after (November 2012–October 2019, n = 934) RV1 introduction were analyzed. Rotavirus G and P genotypes were assigned using reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction.

Results

A rich rotavirus strain diversity circulated throughout the 22-year period; Shannon (H′) and Simpson diversity (D′) indices did not differ between the pre- and postvaccine periods (H′ P < .149; D′ P < .287). Overall, G1 (n = 268/924 [28.7%]), G2 (n = 308/924 [33.0%]), G3 (n = 72/924 [7.7%]), and G12 (n = 109/924 [11.8%]) were the most prevalent genotypes identified following RV1 introduction. The prevalence of G1P[8] and G2P[4] genotypes declined each successive year following RV1 introduction, and were not detected after 2018. Genotype G3 reemerged and became the predominant genotype from 2017 onward. No evidence of genotype selection was observed 7 years post–RV1 introduction.

Conclusions

Rotavirus strain diversity and genotype variation in Malawi are likely driven by natural mechanisms rather than vaccine pressure.

Modeling of rotavirus transmission dynamics and impact of vaccination in Ghana

Background:

Rotavirus incidence remains relatively high in low-income countries (LICs) compared to high-income countries (HICs) after vaccine introduction. Ghana introduced monovalent rotavirus vaccine in April 2012 and despite the high coverage, vaccine performance has been modest compared to developed countries. The predictors of low vaccine effectiveness in LICs are poorly understood, and the drivers of subnational heterogeneity in rotavirus vaccine impact are unknown.

Methods:

We used mathematical models to investigate variations in rotavirus incidence in children <5 years old in Ghana. We fit models to surveillance and case-control data from three different hospitals: Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital in Accra, Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital in Kumasi, and War Memorial Hospital in Navrongo. The models were fitted to both pre- and post-vaccine data to estimate parameters describing the transmission rate, waning of maternal immunity, and vaccine response rate.

Results:

The seasonal pattern and age distribution of rotavirus cases varied among the three study sites in Ghana. Our model was able to capture the spatio-temporal variations in rotavirus incidence across the three sites and showed good agreement with the age distribution of observed cases. The rotavirus transmission rate was highest in Accra and lowest in Navrongo, while the estimated duration of maternal immunity was longer (∼5 months) in Accra and Kumasi and shorter (∼3 months) in Navrongo. The proportion of infants who responded to the vaccine was estimated to be high in Accra and Kumasi and low in Navrongo.

Conclusions:

Rotavirus vaccine impact varies within Ghana. A low vaccine response rate was estimated for Navrongo, where rotavirus is highly seasonal and incidence limited to a few months of the year. Our findings highlight the need to further explore the relationship between rotavirus seasonality, maternal immunity, and vaccine response rate to determine how they influence vaccine effectiveness and to develop strategies to improve vaccine impact.

Childhood vaccines and antibiotic use in low- and middle-income countries

Vaccines may reduce the burden of antimicrobial resistance, in part by preventing infections for which treatment often includes the use of antibiotics1-4. However, the effects of vaccination on antibiotic consumption remain poorly understood-especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the burden of antimicrobial resistance is greatest5. Here we show that vaccines that have recently been implemented in the World Health Organization's Expanded Programme on Immunization reduce antibiotic consumption substantially among children under five years of age in LMICs. By analysing data from large-scale studies of households, we estimate that pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and live attenuated rotavirus vaccines confer 19.7% (95% confidence interval, 3.4-43.4%) and 11.4% (4.0-18.6%) protection against antibiotic-treated episodes of acute respiratory infection and diarrhoea, respectively, in age groups that experience the greatest disease burden attributable to the vaccine-targeted pathogens6,7. Under current coverage levels, pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccines prevent 23.8 million and 13.6 million episodes of antibiotic-treated illness, respectively, among children under five years of age in LMICs each year. Direct protection resulting from the achievement of universal coverage targets for these vaccines could prevent an additional 40.0 million episodes of antibiotic-treated illness. This evidence supports the prioritization of vaccines within the global strategy to combat antimicrobial resistance8.