Time-Dependent Rate Phenomenon in Viruses

Self-assembling viral histones are evolutionary intermediates between archaeal and eukaryotic nucleosomes

Nucleosomes are DNA-protein complexes composed of histone proteins that form the basis of eukaryotic chromatin. The nucleosome was a key innovation during eukaryotic evolution, but its origin from histone homologues in Archaea remains unclear. Viral histone repeats, consisting of multiple histone paralogues within a single protein, may reflect an intermediate state. Here we examine the diversity of histones encoded by Nucleocytoviricota viruses. We identified 258 histones from 168 viral metagenomes with variable domain configurations including histone singlets, doublets, triplets and quadruplets, the latter comprising the four core histones arranged in series. Viral histone repeats branch phylogenetically between Archaea and eukaryotes and display intermediate functions in Escherichia coli, self-assembling into eukaryotic-like nucleosomes that stack into archaeal-like oligomers capable of impacting genomic activity and condensing DNA. Histone linkage also facilitates nucleosome formation, promoting eukaryotic histone assembly in E. coli. These data support the hypothesis that viral histone repeats originated in stem-eukaryotes and that nucleosome evolution proceeded through histone repeat intermediates.

Estimating the reproduction number and transmission heterogeneity from the size distribution of clusters of identical pathogen sequences

Quantifying transmission intensity and heterogeneity is crucial to ascertain the threat posed by infectious diseases and inform the design of interventions. Methods that jointly estimate the reproduction number R and the dispersion parameter k have however mainly remained limited to the analysis of epidemiological clusters or contact tracing data, whose collection often proves difficult. Here, we show that clusters of identical sequences are imprinted by the pathogen offspring distribution, and we derive an analytical formula for the distribution of the size of these clusters. We develop and evaluate an inference framework to jointly estimate the reproduction number and the dispersion parameter from the size distribution of clusters of identical sequences. We then illustrate its application across a range of epidemiological situations. Finally, we develop a hypothesis testing framework relying on clusters of identical sequences to determine whether a given pathogen genetic subpopulation is associated with increased or reduced transmissibility. Our work provides tools to estimate the reproduction number and transmission heterogeneity from pathogen sequences without building a phylogenetic tree, thus making it easily scalable to large pathogen genome datasets.

Revisiting the origins of the Sobemovirus genus: A case for ancient origins of plant viruses

The discrepancy between short- and long-term rate estimates, known as the time-dependent rate phenomenon (TDRP), poses a challenge to extrapolating evolutionary rates over time and reconstructing evolutionary history of viruses. The TDRP reveals a decline in evolutionary rate estimates with the measurement timescale, explained empirically by a power-law rate decay, notably observed in animal and human viruses. A mechanistic evolutionary model, the Prisoner of War (PoW) model, has been proposed to address TDRP in viruses. Although TDRP has been studied in animal viruses, its impact on plant virus evolutionary history remains largely unexplored. Here, we investigated the consequences of TDRP in plant viruses by applying the PoW model to reconstruct the evolutionary history of sobemoviruses, plant pathogens with significant importance due to their impact on agriculture and plant health. Our analysis showed that the Sobemovirus genus dates back over four million years, indicating an ancient origin. We found evidence that supports deep host jumps to Poaceae, Fabaceae, and Solanaceae occurring between tens to hundreds of thousand years ago, followed by specialization. Remarkably, the TDRP-corrected evolutionary history of sobemoviruses was extended far beyond previous estimates that had suggested their emergence nearly 9,000 years ago, a time coinciding with the Neolithic period in the Near East. By incorporating sequences collected through metagenomic analyses, the resulting phylogenetic tree showcases increased genetic diversity, reflecting a deep history of sobemovirus species. We identified major radiation events beginning between 4,600 to 2,000 years ago, which aligns with the Neolithic period in various regions, suggesting a period of rapid diversification from then to the present. Our findings make a case for the possibility of deep evolutionary origins of plant viruses.

Conflicting Evidence between Clinical Perception and Molecular Epidemiology: The Case of Fowl Adenovirus D

Fowl adenoviruses (FAdVs, species FAdV-A/-E) are responsible for several clinical syndromes reported with increasing frequency in poultry farms in the last decades. In the present study, a phylodynamic analysis was performed on a group of FAdV-D Hexon sequences with adequate available metadata. The obtained results demonstrated the long-term circulation of this species, at least several decades before the first identification of the disease. After a period of progressive increase, the viral population showed a high-level circulation from approximately the 1960s to the beginning of the new millennium, mirroring the expansion of intensive poultry production and animal trade. At the same time, strain migration occurred mainly from Europe to other continents, although other among-continent connections were estimated. Thereafter, the viral population declined progressively, likely due to the improved control measures, potentially including the development and application of FAdV vaccines. An increase in the viral evolutionary rate featured this phase. A role of vaccine-induced immunity in shaping viral evolution could thus be hypothesized. Accordingly, several sites of the Hexon, especially those targeted by the host response were proven under a significant pervasive or episodic diversifying selection. The present study results demonstrate the role of intensive poultry production and market globalization in the rise of FAdV. The applied control strategies, on the other hand, were effective in limiting viral circulation and shaping its evolution.

Infectious disease in the Pleistocene: Old friends or old foes?

The impact of endemic and epidemic disease on humans has traditionally been seen as a comparatively recent historical phenomenon associated with the Neolithisation of human groups, an increase in population size led by sedentarism, and increasing contact with domesticated animals as well as species occupying opportunistic symbiotic and ectosymbiotic relationships with humans. The orthodox approach is that Neolithisation created the conditions for increasing population size able to support a reservoir of infectious disease sufficient to act as selective pressure. This orthodoxy is the result of an overly simplistic reliance on skeletal data assuming that no skeletal lesions equated to a healthy individual, underpinned by the assumption that hunter-gatherer groups were inherently healthy while agricultural groups acted as infectious disease reservoirs. The work of van Blerkom, Am. J. Phys. Anthropol., vol. suppl 37 (2003), Wolfe et al., Nature, vol. 447 (2007) and Houldcroft and Underdown, Am. J. Phys. Anthropol., vol. 160, (2016) has changed this landscape by arguing that humans and pathogens have long been fellow travelers. The package of infectious diseases experienced by our ancient ancestors may not be as dissimilar to modern infectious diseases as was once believed. The importance of DNA, from ancient and modern sources, to the study of the antiquity of infectious disease, and its role as a selective pressure cannot be overstated. Here we consider evidence of ancient epidemic and endemic infectious diseases with inferences from modern and ancient human and hominin DNA, and from circulating and extinct pathogen genomes. We argue that the pandemics of the past are a vital tool to unlock the weapons needed to fight pandemics of the future.

Parallel signatures of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and human Y-chromosome phylogeography support the Two Layer model of East Asian population history

The Two Layer hypothesis is fast becoming the favoured narrative describing East Asian population history. Under this model, hunter-gatherer groups who initially peopled East Asia via a route south of the Himalayas were assimilated by agriculturalist migrants who arrived via a northern route across Eurasia. A lack of ancient samples from tropical East Asia limits the resolution of this model. We consider insight afforded by patterns of variation within the human pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) by analysing its phylogeographic signatures jointly with the human Y-chromosome. We demonstrate the Y-chromosome lineages enriched in the traditionally hunter-gatherer groups associated with East Asia's first layer of peopling to display deep roots, low long-term effective population size, and diversity patterns consistent with a southern entry route. These characteristics mirror those of the evolutionarily ancient Mtb lineage 1. The remaining East Asian Y-chromosome lineage is almost entirely absent from traditionally hunter-gatherer groups and displays spatial and temporal characteristics which are incompatible with a southern entry route, and which link it to the development of agriculture in modern-day China. These characteristics mirror those of the evolutionarily modern Mtb lineage 2. This model paves the way for novel host-pathogen coevolutionary research hypotheses in East Asia.

A Glimpse into the Past: What Ancient Viral Genomes Reveal About Human History

Humans have battled viruses for millennia. However, directly linking the symptomatology of disease outbreaks to specific viral pathogens was not possible until the twentieth century. With the advent of the genomic era and the development of advanced protocols for isolation, sequencing, and analysis of ancient nucleic acids from diverse human remains, the identification and characterization of ancient viruses became feasible. Recent studies have provided invaluable information about past epidemics and made it possible to examine assumptions and inferences on the origin and evolution of certain viral families. In parallel, the study of ancient viruses also uncovered their importance in the evolution of the human lineage and their key roles in shaping major events in human history. In this review, we describe the strategies used for the study of ancient viruses, along with their limitations, and provide a detailed account of what past viral infections have revealed about human history.

The recency and geographical origins of the bat viruses ancestral to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2

The emergence of SARS-CoV in 2002 and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 has led to increased sampling of related sarbecoviruses circulating primarily in horseshoe bats. These viruses undergo frequent recombination and exhibit spatial structuring across Asia. Employing recombination-aware phylogenetic inference on bat sarbecoviruses, we find that the closest-inferred bat virus ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 existed just ~1-3 years prior to their emergence in humans. Phylogeographic analyses examining the movement of related sarbecoviruses demonstrate that they traveled at similar rates to their horseshoe bat hosts and have been circulating for thousands of years in Asia. The closest-inferred bat virus ancestor of SARS-CoV likely circulated in western China, and that of SARS-CoV-2 likely circulated in a region comprising southwest China and northern Laos, both a substantial distance from where they emerged. This distance and recency indicate that the direct ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 could not have reached their respective sites of emergence via the bat reservoir alone. Our recombination-aware dating and phylogeographic analyses reveal a more accurate inference of evolutionary history than performing only whole-genome or single gene analyses. These results can guide future sampling efforts and demonstrate that viral genomic fragments extremely closely related to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 were circulating in horseshoe bats, confirming their importance as the reservoir species for SARS viruses.

The evolutionary history of hepaciviruses

In the search for natural reservoirs of hepatitis C virus (HCV), a broad diversity of non-human viruses within the Hepacivirus genus has been uncovered. However, the evolutionary dynamics that shaped the diversity and timescale of hepaciviruses evolution remain elusive. To gain further insights into the origins and evolution of this genus, we screened a large dataset of wild mammal samples (n = 1,672) from Africa and Asia, and generated 34 full-length hepacivirus genomes. Phylogenetic analysis of these data together with publicly available genomes emphasizes the importance of rodents as hepacivirus hosts and we identify 13 rodent species and 3 rodent genera (in Cricetidae and Muridae families) as novel hosts of hepaciviruses. Through co-phylogenetic analyses, we demonstrate that hepacivirus diversity has been affected by cross-species transmission events against the backdrop of detectable signal of virus-host co-divergence in the deep evolutionary history. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic multidimensional scaling approach, we explore the extent to which host relatedness and geographic distances have structured present-day hepacivirus diversity. Our results provide evidence for a substantial structuring of mammalian hepacivirus diversity by host as well as geography, with a somewhat more irregular diffusion process in geographic space. Finally, using a mechanistic model that accounts for substitution saturation, we provide the first formal estimates of the timescale of hepacivirus evolution and estimate the origin of the genus to be about 22 million years ago. Our results offer a comprehensive overview of the micro- and macroevolutionary processes that have shaped hepacivirus diversity and enhance our understanding of the long-term evolution of the Hepacivirus genus.

A billion years arms-race between viruses, virophages, and eukaryotes

Bamfordviruses are arguably the most diverse group of viruses infecting eukaryotes. They include the Nucleocytoplasmic Large DNA viruses (NCLDVs), virophages, adenoviruses, Mavericks and Polinton-like viruses. Two main hypotheses for their origins have been proposed: the 'nuclear-escape' and 'virophage-first' hypotheses. The nuclear-escape hypothesis proposes an endogenous, Maverick-like ancestor which escaped from the nucleus and gave rise to adenoviruses and NCLDVs. In contrast, the virophage-first hypothesis proposes that NCLDVs coevolved with protovirophages; Mavericks then evolved from virophages that became endogenous, with adenoviruses escaping from the nucleus at a later stage. Here, we test the predictions made by both models and consider alternative evolutionary scenarios. We use a data set of the four core virion proteins sampled across the diversity of the lineage, together with Bayesian and maximum-likelihood hypothesis-testing methods, and estimate rooted phylogenies. We find strong evidence that adenoviruses and NCLDVs are not sister groups, and that Mavericks and Mavirus acquired the rve-integrase independently. We also found strong support for a monophyletic group of virophages (family Lavidaviridae) and a most likely root placed between virophages and the other lineages. Our observations support alternatives to the nuclear-escape scenario and a billion years evolutionary arms-race between virophages and NCLDVs.

Geographic Structuring and Divergence Time Frame of Monkeypox Virus in the Endemic Region

BACKGROUND

Monkeypox is an emerging zoonosis endemic to Central and West Africa. Monkeypox virus (MPXV) is genetically structured in 2 major clades (clades 1 and 2/3), but its evolution is poorly explored.

METHODS

We retrieved MPXV genomes from public repositories and we analyzed geographic patterns using STRUCTURE. Molecular dating was performed using a using a Bayesian approach.

RESULTS

We show that the population transmitted in West Africa (clades 2/3) experienced limited drift. Conversely, clade 1 (transmitted in the Congo Basin) possibly underwent a bottleneck or founder effect. Depending on the model used, we estimated that the 2 clades separated ∼560-860 (highest posterior density: 450-960) years ago, a period characterized by expansions and contractions of rainforest areas, possibly creating the ecological conditions for the MPXV reservoir(s) to migrate. In the Congo Basin, MPXV diversity is characterized by 4 subpopulations that show no geographic structuring. Conversely, clades 2/3 are spatially structured with 2 populations located West and East of the Dahomey Gap.

CONCLUSIONS

The distinct histories of the 2 clades may derive from differences in MPXV ecology in West and Central Africa.

An Adagio for Viruses, Played Out on Ancient DNA

Studies of ancient DNA have transformed our understanding of human evolution. Paleogenomics can also reveal historic and prehistoric agents of disease, including endemic, epidemic, and pandemic pathogens. Viruses-and in particular those with single- or double-stranded DNA genomes-are an important part of the paleogenomic revolution, preserving within some remains or environmental samples for tens of thousands of years. The results of these studies capture the public imagination, as well as giving scientists a unique perspective on some of the more slowly evolving viruses which cause disease. In this review, we revisit the first studies of historical virus genetic material in the 1990s, through to the genomic revolution of recent years. We look at how paleogenomics works for viral pathogens, such as the need for careful precautions against modern contamination and robust computational pipelines to identify and analyze authenticated viral sequences. We discuss the insights into virus evolution which have been gained through paleogenomics, concentrating on three DNA viruses in particular: parvovirus B19, herpes simplex virus 1, and smallpox. As we consider recent worldwide transmission of monkeypox and synthetic biology tools that allow the potential reconstruction of extinct viruses, we show that studying historical and ancient virus evolution has never been more topical.

Investigation and sequence analysis of psittacine beak and feather disease virus and avian polyomavirus from companion birds in Windhoek, Namibia

The commercial farming and trading of parrots and ornamental birds as companion animals are important economic activities in many countries. Some of the bird species farmed/traded are captured from the wild or are closely related to wild birds and therefore represent a risk of pathogen exchange/introduction. Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV) and avian poliomavirus (APV) are among the viruses with the biggest impact on companion bird populations and have been detected in different hosts worldwide. Despite their relevance for both domesticated and wild birds, our knowledge of BFDV and APV epidemiology remains limited in several African countries. In the present study, 143 cloacal swabs were collected from companion birds in Windhoek, Namibia, and tested by polymerase chain reaction for BFDV and APV. Of the samples tested, 35/143 (24.48%) tested positive for BFDV; 11/143 (7.69%) were positive for APV; and 6/143 (4.2%) tested positive for both pathogens. Positive amplicons, consisting of segments of the ORF1 and VP1 genes, were sequenced and compared with sequences from viruses identified in other countries. Four Namibian-only clades of BFDV were identified, loosely related to foreign strains, which suggest the occurrence of multiple introduction events in the past, potentially from South Africa, followed by local, independent evolution. In contrast, the Namibian APV sequences were identical to each other and form a single clade. In both instances, no correlation was observed between the sampling host and the viral phylogeny, suggesting the absence of host-specific adaptation and a remarkable, unconstrained viral circulation within Namibian borders. Therefore, while regulations and control measures developed against foreign strain introduction have proven to be effective over time, the spread of BFDV and APV within Namibia's borders appears undeterred. Additional resources should be dedicated to limit strain circulation in commercial farming facilities, markets and small-scale traders.

Analysis of variola virus molecular evolution suggests an old origin of the virus consistent with historical records

Archaeovirology efforts provided a rich portrait of the evolutionary history of variola virus (VARV, the cause of smallpox), which was characterized by lineage extinctions and a relatively recent origin of the virus as a human pathogen (~1700 years ago, ya). This contrasts with historical records suggesting the presence of smallpox as early as 3500 ya. By performing an analysis of ancestry components in modern, historic, and ancient genomes, we unveil the progressive drifting of VARV lineages from a common ancestral population and we show that a small proportion of Viking Age ancestry persisted until the 18th century. After the split of the P-I and P-II lineages, the former experienced a severe bottleneck. With respect to the emergence of VARV as a human pathogen, we revise time estimates by accounting for the time-dependent rate phenomenon. We thus estimate that VARV emerged earlier than 3800 ya, supporting its presence in ancient societies, as pockmarked Egyptian mummies suggest.

Reversions to consensus are positively selected in HIV-1 and bias substitution rate estimates

Human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) is a rapidly evolving virus able to evade host immunity through rapid adaptation during chronic infection. The HIV-1 group M has diversified since its zoonosis into several subtypes at a rate of the order of 10^-3 changes per site per year. This rate varies between different parts of the genome, and its inference is sensitive to the timescale and diversity spanned by the sequence data used. Higher rates are estimated on short timescales and particularly for within-host evolution, while rate estimates spanning decades or the entire HIV-1 pandemic tend to be lower. The underlying causes of this difference are not well understood. We investigate here the role of rapid reversions toward a preferred evolutionary sequence state on multiple timescales. We show that within-host reversion mutations are under positive selection and contribute substantially to sequence turnover, especially at conserved sites. We then use the rates of reversions and non-reversions estimated from longitudinal within-host data to parameterize a phylogenetic sequence evolution model. Sequence simulation of this model on HIV-1 phylogenies reproduces diversity and apparent evolutionary rates of HIV-1 in gag and pol, suggesting that a tendency to rapidly revert to a consensus-like state can explain much of the time dependence of evolutionary rate estimates in HIV-1.

Disease-causing human viruses: novelty and legacy

About 270 viruses are known to infect humans. Some of these viruses have been known for centuries, whereas others have recently emerged. During their evolutionary history, humans have moved out of Africa to populate the world. In historical times, human migrations resulted in the displacement of large numbers of people. All these events determined the movement and dispersal of human-infecting viruses. Technological advances have resulted in the characterization of the genetic variability of human viruses, both in extant and in archaeological samples. Field studies investigated the diversity of viruses hosted by other animals. In turn, these advances provided insight into the evolutionary history of human viruses back in time and defined the key events through which they originated and spread.

Phylogeographic analysis reveals an ancient East African origin of human herpes simplex virus 2 dispersal out-of-Africa

Human herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) is a ubiquitous, slowly evolving DNA virus. HSV-2 has two primary lineages, one found in West and Central Africa and the other found worldwide. Competing hypotheses have been proposed to explain how HSV-2 migrated out-of-Africa (i)HSV-2 followed human migration out-of-Africa 50-100 thousand years ago, or (ii)HSV-2 migrated via the trans-Atlantic slave trade 150-500 years ago. Limited geographic sampling and lack of molecular clock signal has precluded robust comparison. Here, we analyze newly sequenced HSV-2 genomes from Africa to resolve geography and timing of divergence events within HSV-2. Phylogeographic analysis consistently places the ancestor of worldwide dispersal in East Africa, though molecular clock is too slow to be detected using available data. Rates 4.2 × 10-8-5.6 × 10-8 substitutions/site/year, consistent with previous age estimates, suggest a worldwide dispersal 22-29 thousand years ago. Thus, HSV-2 likely migrated with humans from East Africa and dispersed after the Last Glacial Maximum.

Endogenous Viral Elements in Shrew Genomes Provide Insights into Pestivirus Ancient History

As viral genomic imprints in host genomes, endogenous viral elements (EVEs) shed light on the deep evolutionary history of viruses, ancestral host ranges, and ancient viral-host interactions. In addition, they may provide crucial information for calibrating viral evolutionary timescales. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive in silico screening of a large data set of available mammalian genomes for EVEs deriving from members of the viral family Flaviviridae, an important group of viruses including well-known human pathogens, such as Zika, dengue, or hepatitis C viruses. We identified two novel pestivirus-like EVEs in the reference genome of the Indochinese shrew (Crocidura indochinensis). Homologs of these novel EVEs were subsequently detected in vivo by molecular detection and sequencing in 27 shrew species, including 26 species representing a wide distribution within the Crocidurinae subfamily and one in the Soricinae subfamily on different continents. Based on this wide distribution, we estimate that the integration event occurred before the last common ancestor of the subfamily, about 10.8 million years ago, attesting to an ancient origin of pestiviruses and Flaviviridae in general. Moreover, we provide the first description of Flaviviridae-derived EVEs in mammals even though the family encompasses numerous mammal-infecting members. This also suggests that shrews were past and perhaps also current natural reservoirs of pestiviruses. Taken together, our results expand the current known Pestivirus host range and provide novel insight into the ancient evolutionary history of pestiviruses and the Flaviviridae family in general.

Ancient herpes simplex 1 genomes reveal recent viral structure in Eurasia

Human herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1), a life-long infection spread by oral contact, infects a majority of adults globally. Phylogeographic clustering of sampled diversity into European, pan-Eurasian, and African groups has suggested the virus codiverged with human migrations out of Africa, although a much younger origin has also been proposed. We present three full ancient European HSV-1 genomes and one partial genome, dating from the 3rd to 17th century CE, sequenced to up to 9.5× with paired human genomes up to 10.16×. Considering a dataset of modern and ancient genomes, we apply phylogenetic methods to estimate the age of sampled modern Eurasian HSV-1 diversity to 4.68 (3.87 to 5.65) ka. Extrapolation of estimated rates to a global dataset points to the age of extant sampled HSV-1 as 5.29 (4.60 to 6.12) ka, suggesting HSV-1 lineage replacement coinciding with the late Neolithic period and following Bronze Age migrations.

The logic of virus evolution

Viruses are obligate intracellular parasites. Despite their dependence on host cells, viruses are evolutionarily autonomous, with their own genomes and evolutionary trajectories locked in arms races with the hosts. Here, we discuss a simple functional logic to explain virus macroevolution that appears to define the course of virus evolution. A small core of virus hallmark genes that are responsible for genome replication apparently descended from primordial replicators, whereas most virus genes, starting with those encoding capsid proteins, were subsequently acquired from hosts. The oldest of these acquisitions antedate the last universal cellular ancestor (LUCA). Host gene capture followed two major routes: convergent recruitment of genes with functions that directly benefit virus reproduction and exaptation when host proteins are repurposed for unique virus functions. These forms of host protein recruitment by viruses result in different levels of similarity between virus and host homologs, with the exapted ones often changing beyond easy recognition.

Temporal dynamics of mildly deleterious nonsynonymous substitutions in mitochondrial gene sequences in rodents and moles

We have previously estimated the evolutionary rate (number of substitutions/site/million years) of mitochondrial cytochrome b gene (Cytb) sequences in rodents and moles to be about 0.11 at more recent divergence times of tens of thousands of years, and to decrease rapidly to about 0.03 at more distant divergence times. Because this time dependency is thought to be caused by the removal of mildly deleterious substitutions in later generations, we focused in this study on the abundance of nonsynonymous substitutions. We collected 23 haplogroups of Cytb with signals of late Quaternary population expansion events from rodents and moles and categorized them into three groups for comparison based on predicted expansion start time: 5,000-15,000 years ago (Group I), ca. 53,000 years ago (Group II) and 130,000-230,000 years ago (Group III). We counted the numbers of nonsynonymous and synonymous substitutions in all haplogroups. The rates of nonsynonymous substitutions were lowest in Groups II and III (0.08-0.22), whereas those in Group I varied markedly. We further classified Group I into two subgroups based on high (0.29-0.43) and low (0.09-0.20) nonsynonymous substitution rates, which were likely to be associated with the start of the expansion within 10,000 years and at around 15,000 years ago, respectively. The Group II and III networks had two- or three-step star-shaped structures and tended to exhibit frequent and less frequent nonsynonymous substitutions on exterior and interior branches, respectively. Based on temporal dynamics, nonsynonymous mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) substitutions in small mammals accounted for at most 40% of all substitutions during the early evolutionary stage and then rapidly declined, dropping to approximately 15%. The results of this study provide a good explanation of the time-dependent trend in the mtDNA evolution rate predicted in previous work.

Detection of Ancient Viruses and Long-Term Viral Evolution

The COVID-19 outbreak has reminded us of the importance of viral evolutionary studies as regards comprehending complex viral evolution and preventing future pandemics. A unique approach to understanding viral evolution is the use of ancient viral genomes. Ancient viruses are detectable in various archaeological remains, including ancient people's skeletons and mummified tissues. Those specimens have preserved ancient viral DNA and RNA, which have been vigorously analyzed in the last few decades thanks to the development of sequencing technologies. Reconstructed ancient pathogenic viral genomes have been utilized to estimate the past pandemics of pathogenic viruses within the ancient human population and long-term evolutionary events. Recent studies revealed the existence of non-pathogenic viral genomes in ancient people's bodies. These ancient non-pathogenic viruses might be informative for inferring their relationships with ancient people's diets and lifestyles. Here, we reviewed the past and ongoing studies on ancient pathogenic and non-pathogenic viruses and the usage of ancient viral genomes to understand their long-term viral evolution.

Dating the Emergence of Human Endemic Coronaviruses

Four endemic coronaviruses infect humans and cause mild symptoms. Because previous analyses were based on a limited number of sequences and did not control for effects that affect molecular dating, we re-assessed the timing of endemic coronavirus emergence. After controlling for recombination, selective pressure, and molecular clock model, we obtained similar tMRCA (time to the most recent common ancestor) estimates for the four coronaviruses, ranging from 72 (HCoV-229E) to 54 (HCoV-NL63) years ago. The split times of HCoV-229E and HCoV-OC43 from camel alphacoronavirus and bovine coronavirus were dated ~268 and ~99 years ago. The split times of HCoV-HKU1 and HCoV-NL63 could not be calculated, as their zoonoticic sources are unknown. To compare the timing of coronavirus emergence to that of another respiratory virus, we recorded the occurrence of influenza pandemics since 1500. Although there is no clear relationship between pandemic occurrence and human population size, the frequency of influenza pandemics seems to intensify starting around 1700, which corresponds with the initial phase of exponential increase of human population and to the emergence of HCoV-229E. The frequency of flu pandemics in the 19th century also suggests that the concurrence of HCoV-OC43 emergence and the Russian flu pandemic may be due to chance.

Temporal analysis of bovine pestivirus diversity in Brazil

In this study, phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses of cattle pestiviruses (BVDV-1, 2 and HoBiPeV) originating in Brazil were used to investigate the temporal diversification of subgenotypes in the country. Inferred dated phylogeny and time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) demonstrated that some BVDV subgenotypes (1a, 1b, 1d, 1e, and 2b) and HoBi-like sequences clustered according to the region in which they were collected and that the diversification of subgenotypes appears to have occurred around the introduction of first Bos taurus and then Bos indicus, followed by expansion to form the adapted Brazilian breeds. The present results help to elucidate the temporal facts that led to diversification of ruminant pestiviruses in cattle in Brazil.

Comparative Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern, Including Omicron, Highlights Their Common and Distinctive Amino Acid Substitution Patterns, Especially at the Spike ORF

In order to gain a deeper understanding of the recently emerged and highly divergent Omicron variant of concern (VoC), a study of amino acid substitution (AAS) patterns was performed and compared with those of the other four successful variants of concern (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta) and one closely related variant of interest (VoI-Lambda). The Spike ORF consistently emerges as an AAS hotspot in all six lineages, but in Omicron this enrichment is significantly higher. The progenitors of each of these VoC/VoI lineages underwent positive selection in the Spike ORF. However, once they were established, their Spike ORFs have been undergoing purifying selection, despite the application of global vaccination schemes from 2021 onwards. Our analyses reject the hypothesis that the heavily mutated receptor binding domain (RBD) of the Omicron Spike was introduced via recombination from another closely related Sarbecovirus. Thus, successive point mutations appear as the most parsimonious scenario. Intriguingly, in each of the six lineages, we observed a significant number of AAS wherein the new residue is not present at any homologous site among the other known Sarbecoviruses. Such AAS should be further investigated as potential adaptations to the human host. By studying the phylogenetic distribution of AAS shared between the six lineages, we observed that the Omicron (BA.1) lineage had the highest number (8/10) of recurrent mutations.

The Remarkable Evolutionary Plasticity of Coronaviruses by Mutation and Recombination: Insights for the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Future Evolutionary Paths of SARS-CoV-2

Coronaviruses (CoVs) constitute a large and diverse subfamily of positive-sense single-stranded RNA viruses. They are found in many mammals and birds and have great importance for the health of humans and farm animals. The current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, as well as many previous epidemics in humans that were of zoonotic origin, highlights the importance of studying the evolution of the entire CoV subfamily in order to understand how novel strains emerge and which molecular processes affect their adaptation, transmissibility, host/tissue tropism, and patho non-homologous genicity. In this review, we focus on studies over the last two years that reveal the impact of point mutations, insertions/deletions, and intratypic/intertypic homologous and non-homologous recombination events on the evolution of CoVs. We discuss whether the next generations of CoV vaccines should be directed against other CoV proteins in addition to or instead of spike. Based on the observed patterns of molecular evolution for the entire subfamily, we discuss five scenarios for the future evolutionary path of SARS-CoV-2 and the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, within this evolutionary context, we discuss the recently emerged Omicron (B.1.1.529) VoC.

Top Three Strategies of ss(+)RNA Plant Viruses: Great Opportunists and Ecosystem Tuners with a Small Genome

ss(+)RNA viruses represent the dominant group of plant viruses. They owe their evolutionary superiority to the large number of mutations that occur during replication, courtesy of RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. Natural selection rewards successful viral subtypes, whose effective tuning of the ecosystem regulates the interactions between its participants. Thus, ss(+)RNA viruses act as shuttles for the functionally important genes of the participants in symbiotic relationships within the ecosystem, of which the most common ecological triad is “plant–virus–insect”. Due to their short life cycle and large number of offspring, RNA viruses act as skillful tuners of the ecosystem, which benefits both viruses and the system as a whole. A fundamental understanding of this aspect of the role played by viruses in the ecosystem makes it possible to apply this knowledge to the creation of DNA insecticides. In fact, since the genes that viruses are involved in transferring are functionally important for both insects and plants, silencing these genes (for example, in insects) can be used to regulate the pest population. RNA viruses are increasingly treated not as micropathogens but as necessary regulators of ecosystem balance.

Viral Causality of Human Cancer and Potential Roles of Human Endogenous Retroviruses in the Multi-Omics Era: An Evolutionary Epidemiology Review

Being responsible for almost 12% of cancers worldwide, viruses are among the oldest known and most prevalent oncogenic agents. The quality of the evidence for the in vivo tumorigenic potential of microorganisms varies, thus accordingly, viruses were classified in 4 evidence-based categories by the International Agency for Research on Cancer in 2009. Since then, our understanding of the role of viruses in cancer has significantly improved, firstly due to the emergence of high throughput sequencing technologies that allowed the “brute-force” recovery of unknown viral genomes. At the same time, multi-omics approaches unravelled novel virus-host interactions in stem-cell biology. We now know that viral elements, either exogenous or endogenous, have multiple sometimes conflicting roles in human pathophysiology and the development of cancer. Here we integrate emerging evidence on viral causality in human cancer from basic mechanisms to clinical studies. We analyze viral tumorigenesis under the scope of deep-in-time human-virus evolutionary relationships and critically comment on the evidence through the eyes of clinical epidemiology, firstly by reviewing recognized oncoviruses and their mechanisms of inducing tumorigenesis, and then by examining the potential role of integrated viruses in our genome in the process of carcinogenesis.

A mechanistic evolutionary model explains the time-dependent pattern of substitution rates in viruses

Estimating viral timescales is fundamental in understanding the evolutionary biology of viruses. Molecular clocks are widely used to reveal the recent evolutionary histories of viruses but may severely underestimate their longer-term origins because of the inverse correlation between inferred rates of evolution and the timescale of their measurement. Here, we provide a predictive mechanistic model that readily explains the rate decay phenomenon over a wide range of timescales and recapitulates the ubiquitous power-law rate decay with a slope of -0.65. We show that standard substitution models fail to correctly estimate divergence times once the most rapidly evolving sites saturate, typically after hundreds of years in RNA viruses and thousands of years in DNA viruses. Our model successfully recreates the observed pattern of decay and explains the evolutionary processes behind the time-dependent rate phenomenon. We then apply our model to re-estimate the date of diversification of genotypes of hepatitis C virus to 423,000 (95% highest posterior density [HPD]: 394,000-454,000) years before present, a time preceding the dispersal of modern humans out of Africa, and show that the most recent common ancestor of sarbecoviruses dates back to 21,000 (95% HPD: 19,000-22,000) years ago, nearly thirty times older than previous estimates. This creates a new perspective for our understanding of the origins of these viruses and also suggests that a substantial revision of evolutionary timescales of other viruses can be similarly achieved.

Molecular archeology of human viruses

The evolution of human-virus associations is usually reconstructed from contemporary patterns of genomic diversity. An intriguing, though still rarely implemented, alternative is to search for the genetic material of viruses in archeological and medical archive specimens to document evolution as it happened. In this chapter, we present lessons from ancient DNA research and incorporate insights from virology to explore the potential range of applications and likely limitations of archeovirological approaches. We also highlight the numerous questions archeovirology will hopefully allow us to tackle in the near future, and the main expected roadblocks to these avenues of research.

Large Evolutionary Rate Heterogeneity among and within HIV-1 Subtypes and CRFs

HIV-1 is a fast-evolving, genetically diverse virus presently classified into several groups and subtypes. The virus evolves rapidly because of an error-prone polymerase, high rates of recombination, and selection in response to the host immune system and clinical management of the infection. The rate of evolution is also influenced by the rate of virus spread in a population and nature of the outbreak, among other factors. HIV-1 evolution is thus driven by a range of complex genetic, social, and epidemiological factors that complicates disease management and prevention. Here, we quantify the evolutionary (substitution) rate heterogeneity among major HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants by analyzing the largest collection of HIV-1 genetic data spanning the widest possible geographical (100 countries) and temporal (1981–2019) spread. We show that HIV-1 substitution rates vary substantially, sometimes by several folds, both across the virus genome and between major subtypes and recombinants, but also within a subtype. Across subtypes, rates ranged 3.5-fold from 1.34 × 10⁻³ to 4.72 × 10⁻³ in env and 2.3-fold from 0.95 × 10⁻³ to 2.18 × 10⁻³ substitutions site⁻¹ year⁻¹ in pol. Within the subtype, 3-fold rate variation was observed in env in different human populations. It is possible that HIV-1 lineages in different parts of the world are operating under different selection pressures leading to substantial rate heterogeneity within and between subtypes. We further highlight how such rate heterogeneity can complicate HIV-1 phylodynamic studies, specifically, inferences on epidemiological linkage of transmission clusters based on genetic distance or phylogenetic data, and can mislead estimates about the timing of HIV-1 lineages.

The Recovery, Interpretation and Use of Ancient Pathogen Genomes

The ability to sequence genomes from ancient biological material has provided a rich source of information for evolutionary biology and engaged considerable public interest. Although most studies of ancient genomes have focused on vertebrates, particularly archaic humans, newer technologies allow the capture of microbial pathogens and microbiomes from ancient and historical human and non-human remains. This coming of age has been made possible by techniques that allow the preferential capture and amplification of discrete genomes from a background of predominantly host and environmental DNA. There are now near-complete ancient genome sequences for three pathogens of considerable historical interest — pre-modern bubonic plague (Yersinia pestis), smallpox (Variola virus) and cholera (Vibrio cholerae) — and for three equally important endemic human disease agents — Mycobacterium tuberculosis (tuberculosis), Mycobacterium leprae (leprosy) and Treponema pallidum pallidum (syphilis). Genomic data from these pathogens have extended earlier work by paleopathologists. There have been efforts to sequence the genomes of additional ancient pathogens, with the potential to broaden our understanding of the infectious disease burden common to past populations from the Bronze Age to the early 20^th century. In this review we describe the state-of-the-art of this rapidly developing field, highlight the contributions of ancient pathogen genomics to multidisciplinary endeavors and describe some of the limitations in resolving questions about the emergence and long-term evolution of pathogens.

Canine Circovirus in Foxes from Northern Italy: Where Did It All Begin?

Canine circovirus (CanineCV) is a recently identified virus affecting both domestic and wild carnivores, including foxes, sometimes in presence of severe clinical signs. Its circulation in wild animals can thus represent a potential threat for endangered species conservation and an infection source for dogs. Nevertheless, no data were available on its circulation in the Alps region of Northern Italy. In the present study, samples collected from 186 foxes in the period 2009–2020 from Valle d’Aosta and Veneto regions were tested using a real-time PCR assay, demonstrating a viral circulation of approximatively 2–5%, depending on the considered regions. Two complete or almost complete genome sequences were obtained, highlighting that the detected strains were part of a so defined “fox only” clade, which suggests that, despite common contact opportunities, Alps foxes are not involved in frequent transmission events to domestic dogs. Such genetic isolation could be at least partially attributed to some sort of independent evolution occurred in the foxes, leading to species barrier. Additionally, CanineCV strains in foxes from Italy were unexpectedly related to those previously identified in foxes from the United Kingdom and Scandinavian area. Combining the history of fox distribution in Europe since the last glacial maximum (LGM) with the viral history allowed us to speculate a long-standing coexistence between European canine circovirus and this host, justifying the peculiar geographic distribution and evolutionary paths of the fox infecting clade.

A great ape perspective on the origins and evolution of human viruses

Over the last two decades, the viromes of our closest relatives, the African great apes (AGA), have been intensively studied. Comparative approaches have unveiled diverse evolutionary patterns, highlighting both stable host-virus associations over extended evolutionary timescales and much more recent viral emergence events. In this chapter, we summarize these findings and outline how they have shed a new light on the origins and evolution of many human-infecting viruses. We also show how this knowledge can be used to better understand the evolution of human health in relation to viral infections.

Origins and Evolution of the Primate Hepatitis B Virus

Recent interest in the origins and subsequent evolution of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) has strengthened with the discovery of ancient HBV sequences in fossilized remains of humans dating back to the Neolithic period around 7,000 years ago. Metagenomic analysis identified a number of African non-human primate HBV sequences in the oldest samples collected, indicating that human HBV may have at some stage, evolved in Africa following zoonotic transmissions from higher primates. Ancestral genotype A and D isolates were also discovered from the Bronze Age, not in Africa but rather Eurasia, implying a more complex evolutionary and migratory history for HBV than previously recognized. Most full-length ancient HBV sequences exhibited features of inter genotypic recombination, confirming the importance of recombination and the mutation rate of the error-prone viral replicase as drivers for successful HBV evolution. A model for the origin and evolution of HBV is proposed, which includes multiple cross-species transmissions and favors subsequent recombination events that result in a pathogen and can successfully transmit and cause persistent infection in the primate host.

Genomes of Anguillid Herpesvirus 1 Strains Reveal Evolutionary Disparities and Low Genetic Diversity in the Genus Cyprinivirus

Anguillid herpesvirus 1 (AngHV-1) is a pathogen of eels and a member of the genus Cyprinivirus in the family Alloherpesviridae. We have compared the biological and genomic features of different AngHV-1 strains, focusing on their growth kinetics in vitro and genetic content, diversity, and recombination. Comparisons based on three core genes conserved among alloherpesviruses revealed that AngHV-1 exhibits a slower rate of change and less positive selection than other cypriniviruses. We propose that this may be linked to major differences in host species and corresponding epidemiological circumstances. Efforts to derive evolutionary rate estimates for cypriniviruses under various theoretical models were ultimately unrewarding. We highlight the potential value of future collaborative efforts towards generating short-term evolutionary rate estimates based on known sequence sampling dates. Finally, we revealed that there is significantly less genetic diversity in core gene sequences within cyprinivirus species clades compared to species in the family Herpesviridae. This suggests that cyprinivirus species may have undergone much more vigorous purifying selection post species clade divergence. We discuss whether this may be linked to biological and anthropogenic factors or to sampling bias, and we propose that the comparison of short-term evolutionary rates between species may provide further insights into these differences.

Phylogenomics of the Maverick Virus-Like Mobile Genetic Elements of Vertebrates

Mavericks are virus-like mobile genetic elements found in the genomes of eukaryotes. Although Mavericks encode capsid morphogenesis homologs, their viral particles have not been observed. Here, we provide new evidence supporting the viral nature of Mavericks and the potential existence of virions. To this end, we conducted a phylogenomic analysis of Mavericks in hundreds of vertebrate genomes, discovering 134 elements with an intact coding capacity in 17 host species. We reveal an extensive genomic fossil record in 143 species and date three groups of elements to the Late Cretaceous. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis using genomic fossil orthologs suggests that Mavericks have infected osteichthyans for ∼419 My. They have undergone frequent cross-species transmissions in cyprinid fish and all core genes are subject to strong purifying selection. We conclude that vertebrate Mavericks form an ancient lineage of aquatic dsDNA viruses which are probably still functional in some vertebrate lineages.

Alternation between taxonomically divergent hosts is not the major determinant of flavivirus evolution

Flaviviruses display diverse epidemiological and ecological features. Tick-borne and mosquito-borne flaviviruses (TBFV and MBFV, respectively) are important human pathogens that alternate replication in invertebrate vectors and vertebrate hosts. The Flavivirus genus also includes insect-specific viruses (ISFVs) and viruses with unknown invertebrate hosts. It is generally accepted that viruses that alternate between taxonomically different hosts evolve slowly and that the evolution of MBFVs and TBFVs is dominated by strong constraints, with limited episodes of positive selection. We exploited the availability of flavivirus genomes to test these hypotheses and to compare their rates and patterns of evolution. We estimated the substitution rates of CFAV and CxFV (two ISFVs) and, by taking into account the time-frame of measurement, compared them with those of other flaviviruses. Results indicated that CFAV and CxFV display relatively different substitution rates. However, these data, together with estimates for single-host members of the Flaviviridae family, indicated that MBFVs do not display relatively slower evolution. Conversely, TBFVs displayed some of lowest substitution rates among flaviviruses. Analysis of selective patterns over longer evolutionary time-frames confirmed that MBFVs evolve under strong purifying selection. Interestingly, TBFVs and ISFVs did not show extremely different levels of constraint, although TBFVs alternate among hosts, whereas ISFVs do not. Additional results showed that episodic positive selection drove the evolution of MBFVs, despite their high constraint. Positive selection was also detected on two branches of the TBFVs phylogeny that define the seabird clade. Thus, positive selection was much more common during the evolution of arthropod-borne flaviviruses than previously thought. Overall, our data indicate that flavivirus evolutionary patterns are complex and most likely determined by multiple factors, not limited to the alternation between taxonomically divergent hosts. The frequency of both positive and purifying selection, especially in MBFVs, suggests that a minority of sites in the viral polyprotein experience weak constraint and can evolve to generate new viral phenotypes and possibly promote adaptation to new hosts.

Recent Out-of-Africa Migration of Human Herpes Simplex Viruses

Herpes simplex virus types 1 and 2 (HSV-1 and HSV-2) are ubiquitous human pathogens. Both viruses evolved from simplex viruses infecting African primates and they are thus thought to have left Africa during early human migrations. We analyzed the population structure of HSV-1 and HSV-2 circulating strains. Results indicated that HSV-1 populations have limited geographic structure and the most evident clustering by geography is likely due to recent bottlenecks. For HSV-2, the only level of population structure is accounted for by the so-called "worldwide" and "African" lineages. Analysis of ancestry components and nucleotide diversity, however, did not support the view that the worldwide lineage followed early humans during out-of-Africa dispersal. Although phylogeographic analysis confirmed an African origin for both viruses, molecular dating with a method that corrects for the time-dependent rate phenomenon indicated that HSV-1 and HSV-2 migrated from Africa in relatively recent times. In particular, we estimated that the HSV-2 worldwide lineage left the continent in the 18th century, which corresponds to the height of the transatlantic slave trade, possibly explaining the high prevalence of HSV-2 in the Americas (second highest after Africa). The limited geographic clustering of HSV-1 makes it difficult to date its exit from Africa. The split between the basal clade, containing mostly African sequences, and all other strains was dated at ∼5,000 years ago. Our data do not imply that herpes simplex viruses did not infect early humans but show that the worldwide distribution of circulating strains is the result of relatively recent events.

Discovery of Novel Herpes Simplexviruses in Wild Gorillas, Bonobos, and Chimpanzees Supports Zoonotic Origin of HSV-2

Viruses closely related to human pathogens can reveal the origins of human infectious diseases. Human herpes simplexvirus type 1 (HSV-1) and type 2 (HSV-2) are hypothesized to have arisen via host-virus codivergence and cross-species transmission. We report the discovery of novel herpes simplexviruses during a large-scale screening of fecal samples from wild gorillas, bonobos, and chimpanzees. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that, contrary to expectation, simplexviruses from these African apes are all more closely related to HSV-2 than to HSV-1. Molecular clock-based hypothesis testing suggests the divergence between HSV-1 and the African great ape simplexviruses likely represents a codivergence event between humans and gorillas. The simplexviruses infecting African great apes subsequently experienced multiple cross-species transmission events over the past 3 My, the most recent of which occurred between humans and bonobos around 1 Ma. These findings revise our understanding of the origins of human herpes simplexviruses and suggest that HSV-2 is one of the earliest zoonotic pathogens.

Genomic evolution of avian polyomaviruses with a focus on budgerigar fledgling disease virus

Gammapolyomaviruses may cause serious inflammatory diseases in a broad range of avian hosts. In this study we investigated genomic evolution of and selection constraint acting on avian polyomaviruses (APyVs). Our analyses suggested that goose haemorrhagic polyomavirus (GHPV) evolves more slowly (3.03 × 10^-5 s/s/y mean evolutionary rate) than budgerigar fledgling disease virus (BFDV), finch polyomavirus (FPyV) and canary polyomavirus (CaPyV) (1.39 × 10^-4 s/s/y, 2.63 × 10^-4 s/s/y and 1.41 × 10^-4 s/s/y mean evolutionary rate, respectively). In general, purifying selection seems to act on the protein coding regions of APyV genomes, although positive Darwinian selection was also predicted in a few positions (e.g., in the large tumor antigen coding region of BFDV and GHPV and in the capsid protein sequences of BFDV). The importance of these aa changes remains elusive. Overall, a better understanding of adaptive changes in the genome of APyVs requires additional data from various incidental hosts and reservoir species.

Insights into the origin and diversification of bovine viral diarrhea virus 1 subtypes

In this study, we performed phylogenetic and evolutionary analysis on bovine viral diarrhea virus 1 (BVDV-1) sequences to investigate the origin and temporal diversification of different BVDV-1 subtypes. Dated phylogenies using the complete polyprotein sequence were reconstructed, and the time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) was estimated. The results demonstrated that BVDV-1 subtypes clustered into two phylogenetic clades, where the predominant subtypes worldwide grouped together. In the temporal analysis, the tMRCA of BVDV-1 was 1336, and the diversification into different subtypes appears to have occurred around 363 years ago. The present results help to elucidate the origins of BVDV-1 subtypes and the dynamics of ruminant pestiviruses.

Evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 sarbecovirus lineage responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic

There are outstanding evolutionary questions on the recent emergence of human coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 including the role of reservoir species, the role of recombination and its time of divergence from animal viruses. We find that the sarbecoviruses-the viral subgenus containing SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2-undergo frequent recombination and exhibit spatially structured genetic diversity on a regional scale in China. SARS-CoV-2 itself is not a recombinant of any sarbecoviruses detected to date, and its receptor-binding motif, important for specificity to human ACE2 receptors, appears to be an ancestral trait shared with bat viruses and not one acquired recently via recombination. To employ phylogenetic dating methods, recombinant regions of a 68-genome sarbecovirus alignment were removed with three independent methods. Bayesian evolutionary rate and divergence date estimates were shown to be consistent for these three approaches and for two different prior specifications of evolutionary rates based on HCoV-OC43 and MERS-CoV. Divergence dates between SARS-CoV-2 and the bat sarbecovirus reservoir were estimated as 1948 (95% highest posterior density (HPD): 1879-1999), 1969 (95% HPD: 1930-2000) and 1982 (95% HPD: 1948-2009), indicating that the lineage giving rise to SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating unnoticed in bats for decades.

You Will Never Walk Alone: Codispersal of JC Polyomavirus with Human Populations

JC polyomavirus (JCPyV) is one of the most prevalent human viruses. Findings based on the geographic distribution of viral subtypes suggested that JCPyV codiverged with human populations. This view was however challenged by data reporting a much more recent origin and expansion of JCPyV. We collected information on ∼1,100 worldwide strains and we show that their geographic distribution roughly corresponds to major human migratory routes. Bayesian phylogeographic analysis inferred a Subsaharan origin for JCPyV, although with low posterior probability. High confidence inference at internal nodes provided strong support for a long-standing association between the virus and human populations. In line with these data, pairwise FST values for JCPyV and human mtDNA sampled from the same areas showed a positive and significant correlation. Likewise, very strong relationships were found when node ages in the JCPyV phylogeny were correlated with human population genetic distances (nuclear-marker based FST). Reconciliation analysis detected a significant cophylogenetic signal for the human population and JCPyV trees. Notably, JCPyV also traced some relatively recent migration events such as the expansion of people from the Philippines/Taiwan area into Remote Oceania, the gene flow between North-Eastern Siberian and Ainus, and the Koryak contribution to Circum-Arctic Americans. Finally, different molecular dating approaches dated the origin of JCPyV in a time frame that precedes human out-of-Africa migration. Thus, JCPyV infected early human populations and accompanied our species during worldwide dispersal. JCPyV typing can provide reliable geographic information and the virus most likely adapted to the genetic background of human populations.

Measles virus and rinderpest virus divergence dated to the sixth century BCE

Many infectious diseases are thought to have emerged in humans after the Neolithic revolution. Although it is broadly accepted that this also applies to measles, the exact date of emergence for this disease is controversial. We sequenced the genome of a 1912 measles virus and used selection-aware molecular clock modeling to determine the divergence date of measles virus and rinderpest virus. This divergence date represents the earliest possible date for the establishment of measles in human populations. Our analyses show that the measles virus potentially arose as early as the sixth century BCE, possibly coinciding with the rise of large cities.

Molecular epidemiology and phylodynamics of goose haemorrhagic polyomavirus

Goose haemorrhagic polyomavirus (GHPV, or Anser anser polyomavirus 1) is a small dsDNA virus of the Polyomaviridae family. The virus infects the internal organs causing haemorrhagic nephritis and enteritis of geese that may be fatal for goslings. In this study, GHPV positivity was examined in goose and duck samples collected in Hungary between 2005 and 2019. In this period, 384 of the investigated 1,111 specimens were diagnosed as GHPV-positive by PCR assay. Twenty-two GHPV genomes were sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic and evolutionary analysis. Based on the sequence data, the mean evolutionary rates were estimated 6.57 × 10^-6 -5.82 × 10^-5  s/s/y for both GHPV complete genomes and individual genes, with negative selection acting on each gene. When GHPV VP1 sequences originating from wild birds were also included in the analyses, the nt and aa mutations inflated the substitution rate to 1.54 × 10^-4  s/s/y that may imply adaptation of the virus to novel host species. Our data suggested the co-circulation of various GHPV strains in Hungarian goose farms; the source of these may be persistently infected domesticated or migratory wild birds. Detection and characterization of GHPV in wild birds and domestic waterfowls may help to elaborate new strategies for more effective disease control and prevention.

Long-term evolution of hepatitis B virus genotype F: Strong association between viral diversification and the prehistoric settlement of Central and South America

The genotype F (HBV-F) is an autochthonous Native American strain of the hepatitis B virus. In this study, we reconstruct the HBV-F long-term evolution under a hypothesis of co-divergence with humans in Central and South America, since their entry into the region 14.5-16 thousand years ago. The Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction supported a virus-host co-expansion; however, two evolutionary scenarios would have been present. Whereas subgenotype F1 spreads along a Pacific coastal route and would have evolved associated with Central American and Andean cultures from the west of the continent, subgenotypes F2-F6 spread along the Atlantic coastline and inner pathways associated with communities inhabiting the tropical forest lowlands. Then, we propose a model for HBV-F evolution in which the selection of differential biological characteristics in these two main groups would be related to their evolution in host populations with different genetic backgrounds and dissimilar demographic conditions.