Determining the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine coverage required for indirect protection against vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in low and middle-income countries: a protocol for a prospective observational study

Clinical predictors of hypoxic pneumonia in children from the Eastern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea: secondary analysis of two prospective observational studies

Background

Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in young children globally and is prevalent in the Papua New Guinea highlands. We investigated clinical predictors of hypoxic pneumonia to inform local treatment guidelines in this resource-limited setting.

Methods

Between 2013 and 2020, two consecutive prospective observational studies were undertaken enrolling children 0-4 years presenting with pneumonia to health-care facilities in Goroka Town, Eastern Highlands Province. Logistic regression models were developed to identify clinical predictors of hypoxic pneumonia (oxygen saturation <90% on presentation). Model performance was compared against established criteria to identify severe pneumonia.

Findings

There were 2067 cases of pneumonia; hypoxaemia was detected in 36.1%. The strongest independent predictors of hypoxic pneumonia were central cyanosis on examination (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.14; 95% CI 3.47-7.60), reduced breath sounds (aOR 2.92; 95% CI 2.30-3.71), and nasal flaring or grunting (aOR 2.34; 95% CI 1.62-3.38). While the model developed to predict hypoxic pneumonia outperformed established pneumonia severity criteria, it was not sensitive enough to be clinically useful at this time.

Interpretation

Given signs and symptoms are unable to accurately detect hypoxia, all health care facilities should be equipped with pulse oximeters. However, for the health care worker without access to pulse oximetry, consideration of central cyanosis, reduced breath sounds, nasal flaring or grunting, age-specific tachycardia, wheezing, parent-reported drowsiness, or bronchial breathing as suggestive of hypoxaemic pneumonia, and thus severe disease, may prove useful in guiding management, hospital referral and use of oxygen therapy.

Funding

Funded by Pfizer Global and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Haemophilus influenzae serotype b seroprevalence in central Lao PDR before and after vaccine introduction

INTRODUCTION

Vaccination has dramatically reduced invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) disease worldwide. Hib vaccination was introduced in the Lao PDR in 2009, as part of the pentavalent vaccine. To contribute to the understanding of the epidemiology of Hib in Lao PDR and the protection levels before and after the introduction of the vaccination, we tested serum samples from existing cohorts of vaccine age-eligible children and unvaccinated adolescents for antibodies against Hib.

METHODS

Serum samples from 296 adolescents born before vaccine introduction and from 1017 children under 5 years (vaccinated and unvaccinated) were tested for anti-Hib antibodies by ELISA. Bivariate analyses were performed to investigate factors associated with long-term protection.

RESULTS

The vast majority of all participants showed evidence of short- (42.7%) or long-term (56.1%) protection against Hib. Almost all of the unvaccinated adolescents had antibody titers indicating short-term protection and almost half (45.6%) were long-term protected. Nearly all children (>99.0%) were at least short-term protected, even those that were unvaccinated or whose vaccination status was unknown. Among vaccinated children, participants vaccinated more than 1 or 2 years ago and with a mid-upper arm circumference z-score < -2 were less likely to be long-term protected.

DISCUSSION

Nearly all adolescents born before the introduction of Hib vaccination in the Lao PDR had antibody titers corresponding to at least short-term protection, indicating a high burden of Hib disease at that time. After vaccine introduction, all but four children (>99%) showed at least short-term protection. Possible explanations for the proportion of protected, yet apparently unvaccinated children, may be past infections, cross-reacting antibodies or faulty vaccination documentation. Our results highlight the need for robust surveillance and reporting of invasive Hib disease to determine the burden of disease despite vaccination.

Variants of Streptococcus pneumoniae Serotype 14 from Papua New Guinea with the Potential to Be Mistyped and Escape Vaccine-Induced Protection

Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus) is a human pathogen of global importance, classified into serotypes based on the type of capsular polysaccharide produced. Serotyping of pneumococci is essential for disease surveillance and vaccine impact measurement. However, the accuracy of serotyping methods can be affected by previously undiscovered variants. Previous studies have identified variants of serotype 14, a highly invasive serotype included in all licensed vaccine formulations. However, the potential of these variants to influence serotyping accuracy and evade vaccine-induced protection has not been investigated. In this study, we screened 1,386 nasopharyngeal swabs from children hospitalized with acute respiratory infection in Papua New Guinea for pneumococci. Swabs containing pneumococci (n = 1,226) were serotyped by microarray to identify pneumococci with a divergent serotype 14 capsule locus. Three serotype 14 variants ('14-like') were isolated and characterized further. The serotyping results of these isolates using molecular methods varied depending on the method, with 3/3 typing as nontypeable (PneumoCaT), 3/3 typing as serotype 14 (seroBA), and 2/3 typing as serotype 14 (SeroCall and quantitative PCR). All three isolates were nontypeable by phenotypic methods (Quellung and latex agglutination), indicating the absence of capsule. Illumina and nanopore sequencing were employed to examine their capsule loci and revealed unique mutations. Lastly, when incubated with sera from vaccinated individuals, the 14-like isolates evaded serotype-specific opsonophagocytic killing. Our study highlights the need for phenotypic testing to validate serotyping data derived from molecular methods. The convergent evolution of capsule loss underscores the importance of studying pneumococcal population biology to monitor the emergence of pneumococci capable of vaccine escape, globally. IMPORTANCE Pneumococcus is a pathogen of major public health importance. Current vaccines have limited valency, targeting a subset (up to 20) of the more than 100 capsule types (serotypes). Precise serotyping methods are therefore essential to avoid mistyping, which can reduce the accuracy of data used to inform decisions around vaccine introduction and/or maintenance of national vaccination programs. In this study, we examine a variant of serotype 14 (14-like), a virulent serotype present in all currently licensed vaccine formulations. Although these 14-like pneumococci no longer produce a serotype 14 capsule, widely used molecular methods can mistype them as serotype 14. Importantly, we show that 14-like pneumococci can evade opsonophagocytic killing mediated by vaccination. Despite the high accuracy of molecular methods for serotyping, our study reemphasizes their limitations. This is particularly relevant in situations where nonvaccine type pneumococci (e.g., the 14-likes in this study) could potentially be misidentified as a vaccine type (e.g., serotype 14).

Effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against hypoxic pneumonia and hospitalisation in Eastern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea: An observational cohort study

Background

Pneumonia is a leading cause of childhood mortality with Streptococcus pneumoniae a major contributor. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been introduced into immunisation programs in many low- to middle-income countries (LMICs) yet there is a paucity of data evaluating the effectiveness in these settings. We assess the effectiveness of 13-valent PCV (13vPCV) against hypoxic pneumonia, hospitalisation and other clinical endpoints in children <5 years living in Eastern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea (PNG).

Methods

Data from two consecutive prospective observational studies (2013–2019) enrolling children <60 months presenting with pneumonia were included. Hypoxic pneumonia was defined as oxygen saturations <90%. Outcomes included hospitalisation, severe clinical pneumonia and death. 13vPCV status was determined using written records. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratios of key outcomes by 13vPCV vaccination status adjusted for confounders using inverse probability of treatment weighting.

Findings

Data from 2067 children (median age; 9 months [IQR: 5–11]) were included. 739 children (36.1%) were hypoxic and 623 (30.4%) hospitalised. Twelve children (0.6% of total cohort) died in hospital. 670 children (32.7%) were fully 13vPCV-vaccinated. 13vPCV vaccination was associated with a 28.7% reduction (95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.9; 43.6%) in hypoxic pneumonia and a 57.4% reduction (38.0; 70.7%) in pneumonia hospitalisation.

Interpretation

13vPCV vaccination is effective against hypoxic pneumonia and pneumonia hospitalisation in PNG children. Strategies to improve access to and coverage of 13vPCV in PNG and other similar LMICs are urgently required.

Funding

Funded by Pfizer Global and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Direct and indirect effects of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumococcal carriage in children hospitalised with pneumonia from formal and informal settlements in Mongolia: an observational study

Background

Within Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, risk factors for pneumonia are concentrated among children living in informal settlements comprised of temporary shelters (gers). We used pneumococcal carriage surveillance among children from formal and informal settlements hospitalised with pneumonia to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) against vaccine-type (VT) pneumococcal carriage following a phased introduction of PCV13.

Methods

We enrolled and collected nasopharyngeal swabs from children 2-59 months of age presenting to hospital. Pneumococci were detected using lytA qPCR and serotyped using microarray on a random monthly selection of swabs between November 2015 and March 2019 from two districts in Ulaanbaatar. PCV13 status was determined using written records. We quantified the associations between individual PCV13 status (direct effects) and district-level PCV13 coverage (indirect effects) and VT carriage using generalised estimating equations and explored interactions by settlement type.

Findings

A total of 1 292 swabs from 6 046 participants were tested for pneumococci. Receipt of PCV13 and increasing PCV13 coverage independently reduced the risk of VT carriage. For each percent increase in PCV13 coverage, the adjusted odds of VT carriage decreased by 1•0% (OR 95% CI 0•983-0•996; p=0•001), with a predicted decrease in VT carriage rate from 29•1% to 13•1% as coverage reached 100%. There was a trend towards a slower decline within informal settlements (p=0•100). Adjusted PCV13 vaccine effectiveness against VT carriage was 39•1% (95% CI 11•4-58•1%, p=0•009).

Interpretation

Substantial indirect effects were observed following PCV13 introduction, including among children living within informal settlements.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

Evaluation strategies for measuring pneumococcal conjugate vaccine impact in low-resource settings

OBJECTIVES

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are effective in reducing pneumococcal disease. We measured 13-valent PCV (PCV13) effect on different pneumococcal outcomes using diverse studies in Lao People's Democratic Republic.

METHODS

Studies included: pre-PCV13 population-based record review of hospitalized childhood pneumonia cases; acute respiratory infection (ARI) study post-PCV13 to demonstrate effectiveness (VE) against hypoxic pneumonia; invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) surveillance in all ages (2004-2018); carriage studies in children hospitalized with ARI (2013-2019); community carriage surveys pre- and post-PCV13.

RESULTS

Annual pneumonia incidence rate in children pre-PCV13 was 1,530 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1,477-1,584) per 100,000. Adjusted VE against hypoxic pneumonia was 37% (95% CI 6-57%). For IPD, 85% (11/13) of cases were due to vaccine-types pre-PCV13, and 43% (3/7) post-PCV13 in children aged <5 years; for ≥5 years, 61% (27/44) and 42% (17/40), respectively. For ARI cases, adjusted VE for vaccine-type carriage was 39% (95% CI 4-60) in <5 year olds; slightly higher than community surveys (23% [95% CI 4-39%] in 12-23 month olds).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite limited baseline data, we found evidence of PCV13 impact on disease and carriage. Our approach could be used in similar settings to augment existing WHO PCV evaluation guidelines.

Australia's Role in Pneumococcal and Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Evaluation in Asia-Pacific

Australian researchers have made substantial contributions to the field of vaccinology over many decades. Two examples of this contribution relate to pneumococcal vaccines and the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, with a focus on improving access to these vaccines in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs). Many LLMICs considering introducing one or both of these vaccines into their National Immunisation Programs face significant barriers such as cost, logistics associated with vaccine delivery. These countries also often lack the resources and expertise to undertake the necessary studies to evaluate vaccine performance. This review summarizes the role of Australia in the development and/or evaluation of pneumococcal vaccines and the HPV vaccine, including the use of alternative vaccine strategies among countries situated in the Asia-Pacific region. The outcomes of these research programs have had significant global health impacts, highlighting the importance of these vaccines in preventing pneumococcal disease as well as HPV-associated diseases.

Indirect effects of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumococcal carriage in children hospitalised with acute respiratory infection despite heterogeneous vaccine coverage: an observational study in Lao People's Democratic Republic

Introduction

Empiric data on indirect (herd) effects of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in settings with low or heterogeneous PCV coverage are limited. The indirect effects of PCV, which benefits both vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals, are mediated by reductions in vaccine-type (VT) carriage (a prerequisite for disease). The aim of this study among hospitalised children in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is to determine the effectiveness of a 13-valent PCV (PCV13) against VT pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage (direct effects) and the association between village-level PCV13 coverage and VT carriage (indirect effects).

Methods

Pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage surveillance commenced in December 2013, shortly after PCV13 introduction (October 2013). We recruited and swabbed children aged 2–59 months admitted to hospital with acute respiratory infection. Pneumococci were detected using lytA quantitative real-time PCR and serotyped using microarray. PCV13 status and village-level PCV13 coverage were determined using written immunisation records. Associations between both PCV13 status and village-level PCV13 coverage and VT carriage were calculated using generalised estimating equations, controlling for potential confounders.

Results

We enrolled 1423 participants and determined PCV13 coverage for 368 villages (269 863 children aged under 5 years). By 2017, median village-level vaccine coverage reached 37.5%, however, the IQR indicated wide variation among villages (24.1–56.4). Both receipt of PCV13 and the level of PCV13 coverage were independently associated with a reduced odds of VT carriage: adjusted PCV13 effectiveness was 38.1% (95% CI 4.1% to 60.0%; p=0.032); and for each per cent increase in PCV13 coverage, the estimated odds of VT carriage decreased by 1.1% (95% CI 0.0% to 2.2%; p=0.056). After adjustment, VT carriage decreased from 20.0% to 12.8% as PCV13 coverage increased from zero to 60% among under 5.

Conclusions

Despite marked heterogeneity in PCV13 coverage, we found evidence of indirect effects in Lao PDR. Individual vaccination with PCV13 was effective against VT carriage.

Nasopharyngeal Pneumococcal Colonization Density is Associated with Severe Pneumonia in Young Children in the Lao PDR

Background

No studies have explored the association between pneumococcal nasopharyngeal density and severe pneumonia using the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 definition. In Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), we determine the association between nasopharyngeal pneumococcal density and severe pneumonia in children.

Methods

A prospective observational study was undertaken at Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, from 2014 to mid-2018. Children <5 years admitted with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) were included. Clinical and demographic data were collected alongside nasopharyngeal swabs for pneumococcal quantification by lytA real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Severe pneumonia was defined using the 2013 WHO definition. For pneumococcal carriers, a logistic regression model examined the association between pneumococcal density and severe pneumonia, after adjusting for potential confounders including demographic and household factors, 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine status, respiratory syncytial virus co-detection, and preadmission antibiotics.

Results

Of 1268 participants with ARI, 32.3% (n = 410) had severe pneumonia and 36.9% (n = 468) had pneumococcal carriage. For pneumococcal carriers, pneumococcal density was positively associated with severe pneumonia (adjusted odds ratio, 1.4 [95% confidence interval, 1.1–1.8]; P = .020).

Conclusions

Among children with ARIs and pneumococcal carriage, pneumococcal carriage density was positively associated with severe pneumonia in Lao PDR. Further studies may determine if pneumococcal density is a useful marker for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine impact on childhood pneumonia.

The effectiveness of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against hypoxic pneumonia in children in Lao People's Democratic Republic: An observational hospital-based test-negative study

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal pneumonia is a leading cause of childhood mortality. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been shown to reduce hypoxic pneumonia in children. However, there are no studies from Asia examining the effectiveness of PCVs on hypoxic pneumonia. We describe a novel approach to determine the effectiveness of the 13-valent PCV (PCV13) against hypoxia in children admitted with pneumonia in the Lao People's Democratic Republic.

METHODS

A prospective hospital-based, test-negative observational study of children aged up to 59 months admitted with pneumonia to a single tertiary hospital in Vientiane was undertaken over 54 months. Pneumonia was defined using the 2013 WHO definition. Hypoxia was defined as oxygen saturation <90% in room air or requiring oxygen supplementation during hospitalisation. Test-negative cases and controls were children with hypoxic and non-hypoxic pneumonia, respectively. PCV13 status was determined by written record. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated using logistic regression. Propensity score and multiple imputation analyses were used to handle confounding and missing data.

FINDINGS

There were 826 children admitted with pneumonia, 285 had hypoxic pneumonia and 377 were PCV13-vaccinated. The unadjusted, propensity-score adjusted and multiple-imputation adjusted estimates of vaccine effectiveness against hypoxic pneumonia were 23% (95% confidence interval: -9, 46%; p=0•14); 37% (6, 57%; p=0•02) and 35% (7, 55%; p=0•02) respectively.

INTERPRETATION

PCV13 is effective against hypoxic pneumonia in Asia, and should be prioritised for inclusion in national immunisation programs. This single hospital-based, test-negative approach can be used to assess vaccine effectiveness in other similar settings.

FUNDING

Funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Safety and Immunogenicity of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in a High-risk Population: A Randomized Controlled Trial of 10-Valent and 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Papua New Guinean Infants

Background

There are little data on the immunogenicity of PCV10 and PCV13 in the same high-risk population.

Methods

PCV10 and PCV13 were studied head-to-head in a randomized controlled trial in Papua New Guinea in which 262 infants received 3 doses of PCV10 or PCV13 at 1, 2, and 3 months of age. Serotype-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentrations, and pneumococcal and nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) carriage were assessed prevaccination and at 4 and 9 months of age. Infants were followed up for safety until 9 months of age.

Results

One month after the third dose of PCV10 or PCV13, ˃80% of infants had IgG concentrations ≥0.35µg/mL for vaccine serotypes, and 6 months postvaccination IgG concentrations ≥0.35 µg/mL were maintained for 8/10 shared PCV serotypes in > 75% of children vaccinated with either PCV10 or PCV13. Children carried a total of 65 different pneumococcal serotypes (plus nonserotypeable). At 4 months of age, 92% (95% confidence interval [CI] 85–96) of children vaccinated with PCV10 and 81% (95% CI 72–88) vaccinated with PCV13 were pneumococcal carriers (P = .023), whereas no differences were seen at 9 months of age, or for NTHi carriage. Both vaccines were well tolerated and not associated with serious adverse events.

Conclusions

Infant vaccination with 3 doses of PCV10 or PCV13 is safe and immunogenic in a highly endemic setting; however, to significantly reduce pneumococcal disease in these settings, PCVs with broader serotype coverage and potency to reduce pneumococcal carriage are needed.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT01619462.

Impact of 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Colonization and Invasive Disease in Cambodian Children

BACKGROUND

Cambodia introduced the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in January 2015 using a 3 + 0 dosing schedule and no catch-up campaign. We investigated the effects of this introduction on pneumococcal colonization and invasive disease in children aged <5 years.

METHODS

There were 6 colonization surveys done between January 2014 and January 2018 in children attending the outpatient department of a nongovernmental pediatric hospital in Siem Reap. Nasopharyngeal swabs were analyzed by phenotypic and genotypic methods to detect pneumococcal serotypes and antimicrobial resistance. Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) data for January 2012-December 2018 were retrieved from hospital databases. Pre-PCV IPD data and pre-/post-PCV colonization data were modelled to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE).

RESULTS

Comparing 2014 with 2016-2018, and using adjusted prevalence ratios, VE estimates for colonization were 16.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.6-21.8) for all pneumococci and 39.2% (95% CI 26.7-46.1) for vaccine serotype (VT) pneumococci. There was a 26.0% (95% CI 17.7-33.0) decrease in multidrug-resistant pneumococcal colonization. The IPD incidence was estimated to have declined by 26.4% (95% CI 14.4-35.8) by 2018, with a decrease of 36.3% (95% CI 23.8-46.9) for VT IPD and an increase of 101.4% (95% CI 62.0-145.4) for non-VT IPD.

CONCLUSIONS

Following PCV13 introduction into the Cambodian immunization schedule, there have been declines in VT pneumococcal colonization and disease in children aged <5 years. Modelling of dominant serotype colonization data produced plausible VE estimates.

Immunization: vital progress, unfinished agenda

Vaccination against infectious diseases has changed the future of the human species, saving millions of lives every year, both children and adults, and providing major benefits to society as a whole. Here we show, however, that national and sub-national coverage of vaccination varies greatly and major unmet needs persist. Although scientific progress opens exciting perspectives in terms of new vaccines, the pathway from discovery to sustainable implementation can be long and difficult, from the financing, development and licensing to programme implementation and public acceptance. Immunization is one of the best investments in health and should remain a priority for research, industry, public health and society.

Using pneumococcal carriage studies to monitor vaccine impact in low- and middle-income countries

Pneumococcal disease is a leading cause of childhood mortality, globally. The pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) has been introduced to many countries worldwide. However there are few studies evaluating PCV impacts in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) because measuring the impact of PCV on pneumococcal disease in LMICs is challenging. We review the role of pneumococcal carriage studies for the evaluation of PCVs in LMICs and discuss optimal methods for conducting these studies. Fifteen carriage studies from 13 LMICs quantified the effects of PCV on carriage, and identified replacement carriage serotypes in the post-PCV era. Ten studies reported on the indirect effects of PCV on carriage. Results can be used to inform cost-effectiveness evaluations, guide policy decisions on dosing and product, and monitor equity in program implementation. Critically, we highlight gaps in our understanding of serotype replacement disease in LMICs and identify priorities for research to address this gap.

Effect of ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction on pneumococcal carriage in Fiji: results from four annual cross-sectional carriage surveys

BACKGROUND

The indirect effects of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are mediated through reductions in carriage of vaccine serotypes. Data on PCVs in Asia and the Pacific are scarce. Fiji introduced the ten-valent PCV (PCV10) in 2012, with a schedule consisting of three priming doses at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age and no booster dose (3 + 0 schedule) without catch-up. We investigated the effects of PCV10 introduction using cross-sectional nasopharyngeal carriage surveys.

METHODS

We did four annual carriage surveys (one pre-PCV10 and three post-PCV10) in the greater Suva area in Fiji, during 2012-15, of 5-8-week-old infants, 12-23-month-old children, 2-6-year-old children, and their caregivers (total of 8109 participants). Eligible participants were of appropriate age, had axillary temperature lower than 37°C, and had lived in the community for at least 3 consecutive months. We used purposive quota sampling to ensure a proper representation of the Fiji population. Pneumococci were detected by real-time quantitative PCR, and molecular serotyping was done with microarray.

FINDINGS

3 years after PCV10 introduction, vaccine-serotype carriage prevalence declined, with adjusted prevalences (2015 vs 2012) of 0·56 (95% CI 0·34-0·93) in 5-8-week-old infants, 0·34 (0·23-0·49) in 12-23-month-olds, 0·47 (0·34-0·66) in 2-6-year-olds, and 0·43 (0·13-1·42) in caregivers. Reductions in PCV10 serotype carriage were evident in both main ethnic groups in Fiji; however, carriage of non-PCV10 serotypes increased in Indigenous Fijian infants and children. Density of PCV10 serotypes and non-PCV10 serotypes was lower in PCV10-vaccinated children aged 12-23 months than in PCV10-unvaccinated children of the same age group (PCV10 serotypes -0·56 [95% CI -0·98 to -0·15], p=0·0077; non-PCV10 serotypes -0·29 [-0·57 to -0·02], p=0·0334).

INTERPRETATION

Direct and indirect effects on pneumococcal carriage post-PCV10 are likely to result in reductions in pneumococcal disease, including in infants too young to be vaccinated. Serotype replacement in carriage in Fijian children, particularly Indigenous children, warrants further monitoring. Observed changes in pneumococcal density might be temporal rather than vaccine related.

FUNDING

Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Australian Government through the Fiji Health Sector Support Program; Victorian Government's Operational Infrastructure Support Program; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of an infant 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine national immunization program in China

Background

The burden of pneumococcal disease in China is high, and a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) recently received regulatory approval and is available to Chinese infants. PCV13 protects against the most prevalent serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in China, but will not provide full societal benefits until made broadly available through a national immunization program (NIP).

Objective

To estimate clinical and economic benefits of introducing PCV13 into a NIP in China using local cost estimates and accounting for variability in vaccine uptake and indirect (herd protection) effects.

Methods

We developed a population model to estimate the effect of PCV13 introduction in China. Modeled health states included meningitis, bacteremia, pneumonia (PNE), acute otitis media, death and sequelae, and no disease. Direct healthcare costs and disease incidence data for IPD and PNE were derived from the China Health Insurance and Research Association database; all other parameters were derived from published literature. We estimated total disease cases and associated costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and deaths for three scenarios from a Chinese Payer Perspective: (1) direct effects only, (2) direct+indirect effects for IPD only, and (3) direct+indirect effects for IPD and inpatient PNE.

Results

Scenario (1) resulted in 370.3 thousand QALYs gained and 12.8 thousand deaths avoided versus no vaccination. In scenarios (2) and (3), the PCV13 NIP gained 383.2 thousand and 3,580 thousand QALYs, and avoided 13.1 thousand and 147.5 thousand deaths versus no vaccination, respectively. In all three scenarios, the vaccination cost was offset by cost reductions from prevented disease yielding net costs of ¥29,362.32 million, ¥29,334.29 million, and ¥13,524.72 million, respectively. All resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratios fell below a 2x China GDP cost-effectiveness threshold across a range of potential vaccine prices.

Discussion

Initiation of a PCV13 NIP in China incurs large upfront costs but is good value for money, and is likely to prevent substantial cases of disease among children and non-vaccinated individuals.