Predictive models for cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes: systematic review and meta-analyses

A brief step-by-step guide on conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic model studies

Prognostic models provide an avenue to predict the risk of individual patients and support shared-decision making. Many prognostic models are published annually, and systematic reviews provide an avenue to collate the existing evidence behind prognostic models to determine whether a model demonstrates adequate predictive performance and is ready for real-world use. This article provides a brief step-by-step guide on how to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic model studies and how these reviews differ from systematic reviews of therapy and diagnosis.

Periodontitis and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality among US adults with diabetes: A population-based cohort study

AIM

To evaluate the association between periodontitis, all-cause and cause-specific mortality, and its prognostic utility among adults with diabetes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Periodontal health records were retrieved from the NHANES database for 4297 participants with diabetes aged >30 years at baseline during 1988-1994, 1999-2004 and 2009-2014. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for moderate/severe periodontitis with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in participants with diabetes. Area under the curve (AUC) was used to assess predictive value.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 15.41 years, 1701 deaths occurred. After multivariate adjustments, moderate/severe periodontitis was significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause (HR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.07-1.50; p = .005) and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related (HR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.03-1.76, p = .031) mortality in participants with diabetes. The absolute risk difference based on the cumulative incidence information was 0.022 (5-year, 95% CI: 0.021-0.023) and 0.044 (10-year, 95% CI: 0.041-0.048). Periodontitis improved the prediction of all-cause (AUC: 0.652; 95% CI: 0.627-0.676) and CVD-related (AUC: 0.649; 95% CI: 0.624-0.676) mortality over standard risk factors (all-cause: AUC: 0.631; 95% CI: 0.606-0.656; CVD-related: AUC: 0.629; 95% CI: 0.604-0.655).

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate/severe periodontitis is associated with an increased risk of all-cause and CVD-related mortality in adults with diabetes. Periodontitis might represent a marker for residual risk.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Prevalence and predictors of chronic kidney disease among type 2 diabetic patients worldwide, systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is a complicated, chronic condition that requires ongoing medical attention as well as multiple risk-reduction measures beyond glucose control. The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is highly variable in different parts of the world due to various environmental, ethnic, socioeconomic, and rural-urban differences. Diabetes is the leading cause of CKD. This study aimed to estimate the global prevalence of CKD and its associated factors among type 2 diabetes(T2DM) patients, provide scientific evidence for a better understanding of the burden of CKD among diabetes mellitus type 2 patients, and design interventional strategies.

METHODS

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) checklist guideline was followed for this review and meta-analysis. The electronic databases (Pub Med, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, and grey literature) were searched to retrieve articles by using keywords. Joanna Briggs Institute Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument was used to assess the quality of studies. The meta-analysis was conducted using STATA 17 software. The Meta logistic regression was computed to present the pooled prevalence and Odds ratio (OR) of the determinate factors with a 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis 20 studies were done in 13 different countries. The pooled magnitude of chronic kidney disease among type 2 DM patients was 27% (95% CI 21%, 33%). The prevalence of chronic kidney disease differs across countries, with the maximum in the USA and the lowest in the United Arab Emirates. Patients with CKD have an elevated risk of severe renal and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Renin-angiotensin system inhibitors, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists, and, more recently, non-steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists are among the medications that have been demonstrated to slow the progression of CKD. In this systematic review and meta-analysis increased age, obesity, having a history of type 2 diabetes mellitus, smoking history, presence of hypertension, and cardiac heart disease were factors significantly associated with the presence of chronic kidney disease among type 2 diabetic patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of chronic kidney disease among type 2 diabetes mellitus patients was high based on the included 20 articles. The review reported that old age, hypertension, cardiac disease, smoking, obesity, and duration of diabetes mellitus was predictor variable for chronic kidney disease among type 2 diabetic patients. Therefore, in order to lower the morbidity and mortality from chronic kidney disease among type 2 diabetic patients, it is advised to develop both preventive and curative intervention strategies, such as raising awareness, creating a supportive environment, and prescribing appropriate medication at an early stage.

Cardiovascular risk in diabetes mellitus: epidemiology, assessment and prevention

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Secular changes in CVD outcomes have occurred over the past few decades, mainly due to a decline in the incidence of ischaemic heart disease. The onset of T2DM at a young age (<40 years), leading to a greater number of life-years lost, has also become increasingly common. Researchers are now looking beyond established risk factors in patients with T2DM towards the role of ectopic fat and, potentially, haemodynamic abnormalities in mediating important outcomes (such as heart failure). T2DM confers a wide spectrum of risk and is not necessarily a CVD risk equivalent, indicating the importance of risk assessment strategies (such as global risk scoring, consideration of risk-enhancing factors and assessment of subclinical atherosclerosis) to inform treatment. Data from epidemiological studies and clinical trials demonstrate that successful control of multiple risk factors can reduce the risk of CVD events by ≥50%; however, only ≤20% of patients achieve targets for risk factor reduction (plasma lipid levels, blood pressure, glycaemic control, body weight and non-smoking status). Improvements in composite risk factor control with lifestyle management (including a greater emphasis on weight loss interventions) and evidence-based generic and novel pharmacological therapies are therefore needed when the risk of CVD is high.

Prognostic models for heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To provide a systematic review, critical appraisal, assessment of performance and generalisability of all the reported prognostic models for heart failure (HF) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

We performed a literature search in Medline, Embase, Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Scopus (from inception to July 2022) and grey literature to identify any study developing and/or validating models predicting HF applicable to patients with T2D. We extracted data on study characteristics, modelling methods and measures of performance, and we performed a random-effects meta-analysis to pool discrimination in models with multiple validation studies. We also performed a descriptive synthesis of calibration and we assessed the risk of bias and certainty of evidence (high, moderate, low).

RESULTS

Fifty-five studies reporting on 58 models were identified: (1) models developed in patients with T2D for HF prediction (n=43), (2) models predicting HF developed in non-diabetic cohorts and externally validated in patients with T2D (n=3), and (3) models originally predicting a different outcome and externally validated for HF (n=12). RECODe (C-statistic=0.75 95% CI (0.72, 0.78), 95% prediction interval (PI) (0.68, 0.81); high certainty), TRS-HFDM (C-statistic=0.75 95% CI (0.69, 0.81), 95% PI (0.58, 0.87); low certainty) and WATCH-DM (C-statistic=0.70 95% CI (0.67, 0.73), 95% PI (0.63, 0.76); moderate certainty) showed the best performance. QDiabetes-HF demonstrated also good discrimination but was externally validated only once and not meta-analysed.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the prognostic models identified, four models showed promising performance and, thus, could be implemented in current clinical practice.

Metabolic health and cardiometabolic risk clusters: implications for prediction, prevention, and treatment

Among 20 leading global risk factors for years of life lost in 2040, reference forecasts point to three metabolic risks-high blood pressure, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose-as being the top risk variables. Building upon these and other risk factors, the concept of metabolic health is attracting much attention in the scientific community. It focuses on the aggregation of important risk factors, which allows the identification of subphenotypes, such as people with metabolically unhealthy normal weight or metabolically healthy obesity, who strongly differ in their risk of cardiometabolic diseases. Since 2018, studies that used anthropometrics, metabolic characteristics, and genetics in the setting of cluster analyses proposed novel metabolic subphenotypes among patients at high risk (eg, those with diabetes). The crucial point now is whether these subphenotyping strategies are superior to established cardiometabolic risk stratification methods regarding the prediction, prevention, and treatment of cardiometabolic diseases. In this Review, we carefully address this point and conclude, firstly, regarding cardiometabolic risk stratification, in the general population both the concept of metabolic health and the cluster approaches are not superior to established risk prediction models. However, both subphenotyping approaches might be informative to improve the prediction of cardiometabolic risk in subgroups of individuals, such as those in different BMI categories or people with diabetes. Secondly, the applicability of the concepts by treating physicians and communication of the cardiometabolic risk with patients is easiest using the concept of metabolic health. Finally, the approaches to identify cardiometabolic risk clusters in particular have provided some evidence that they could be used to allocate individuals to specific pathophysiological risk groups, but whether this allocation is helpful for prevention and treatment still needs to be determined.

Benefits and harms of drug treatment for type 2 diabetes: systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

OBJECTIVE

To compare the benefits and harms of drug treatments for adults with type 2 diabetes, adding non-steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (including finerenone) and tirzepatide (a dual glucose dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP)/glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist) to previously existing treatment options.

DESIGN

Systematic review and network meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Ovid Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Central up to 14 October 2022.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

Eligible randomised controlled trials compared drugs of interest in adults with type 2 diabetes. Eligible trials had a follow-up of 24 weeks or longer. Trials systematically comparing combinations of more than one drug treatment class with no drug, subgroup analyses of randomised controlled trials, and non-English language studies were deemed ineligible. Certainty of evidence was assessed following the GRADE (grading of recommendations, assessment, development and evaluation) approach.

RESULTS

The analysis identified 816 trials with 471 038 patients, together evaluating 13 different drug classes; all subsequent estimates refer to the comparison with standard treatments. Sodium glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors (odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 0.94; high certainty) and GLP-1 receptor agonists (0.88, 0.82 to 0.93; high certainty) reduce all cause death; non-steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, so far tested only with finerenone in patients with chronic kidney disease, probably reduce mortality (0.89, 0.79 to 1.00; moderate certainty); other drugs may not. The study confirmed the benefits of SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists in reducing cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, admission to hospital for heart failure, and end stage kidney disease. Finerenone probably reduces admissions to hospital for heart failure and end stage kidney disease, and possibly cardiovascular death. Only GLP-1 receptor agonists reduce non-fatal stroke; SGLT-2 inhibitors are superior to other drugs in reducing end stage kidney disease. GLP-1 receptor agonists and probably SGLT-2 inhibitors and tirzepatide improve quality of life. Reported harms were largely specific to drug class (eg, genital infections with SGLT-2 inhibitors, severe gastrointestinal adverse events with tirzepatide and GLP-1 receptor agonists, hyperkalaemia leading to admission to hospital with finerenone). Tirzepatide probably results in the largest reduction in body weight (mean difference -8.57 kg; moderate certainty). Basal insulin (mean difference 2.15 kg; moderate certainty) and thiazolidinediones (mean difference 2.81 kg; moderate certainty) probably result in the largest increases in body weight. Absolute benefits of SGLT-2 inhibitors, GLP-1 receptor agonists, and finerenone vary in people with type 2 diabetes, depending on baseline risks for cardiovascular and kidney outcomes (https://matchit.magicevidence.org/230125dist-diabetes).

CONCLUSIONS

This network meta-analysis extends knowledge beyond confirming the substantial benefits with the use of SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists in reducing adverse cardiovascular and kidney outcomes and death by adding information on finerenone and tirzepatide. These findings highlight the need for continuous assessment of scientific progress to introduce cutting edge updates in clinical practice guidelines for people with type 2 diabetes.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022325948.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2023 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2022 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. The American Heart Association strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) publications, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Precision prognostics for the development of complications in diabetes

Individuals with diabetes face higher risks for macro- and microvascular complications than their non-diabetic counterparts. The concept of precision medicine in diabetes aims to optimise treatment decisions for individual patients to reduce the risk of major diabetic complications, including cardiovascular outcomes, retinopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy and overall mortality. In this context, prognostic models can be used to estimate an individual's risk for relevant complications based on individual risk profiles. This review aims to place the concept of prediction modelling into the context of precision prognostics. As opposed to identification of diabetes subsets, the development of prediction models, including the selection of predictors based on their longitudinal association with the outcome of interest and their discriminatory ability, allows estimation of an individual's absolute risk of complications. As a consequence, such models provide information about potential patient subgroups and their treatment needs. This review provides insight into the methodological issues specifically related to the development and validation of prediction models for diabetes complications. We summarise existing prediction models for macro- and microvascular complications, commonly included predictors, and examples of available validation studies. The review also discusses the potential of non-classical risk markers and omics-based predictors. Finally, it gives insight into the requirements and challenges related to the clinical applications and implementation of developed predictions models to optimise medical decision making.

Risk of all-cause mortality according to the European Society of Cardiology risk categories in individuals with type 2 diabetes: the Renal Insufficiency And Cardiovascular Events (RIACE) Italian Multicenter Study

AIMS

The 2019 and 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) classifications stratified patients with type 2 diabetes into three categories according to the 10-year risk of death from atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). The very high-risk category included individuals with established ASCVD, target organ damage (TOD), and/or, in the 2019 classification only, ≥ 3 additional ASCVD risk factors. We assessed risk of all-cause mortality according to the two ESC classifications in the Renal Insufficiency And Cardiovascular Events cohort.

METHODS

Participants (n = 15,773) were stratified based on the presence of ASCVD, TOD, and ASCVD risk factors at baseline (2006-2008). Vital status was retrieved in 2015.

RESULTS

Less than 1% of participants fell in the moderate-risk category. According to the 2019 classification, ~ 1/3 fell in the high-risk and ~ 2/3 in the very high-risk category, whereas the opposite occurred with the 2021 classification. Mortality risk increased across categories according to both classifications. Among very high-risk patients, mortality was much lower in those with ≥ 3 additional ASCVD risk factors and almost equal in those with TOD and ASCVD ± TOD, using the 2019 classification, whereas it was much higher in those with ASCVD + TOD and, to a lesser extent, TOD only than in those with ASCVD only, using the 2021 classification.

CONCLUSIONS

The negligible number of moderate-risk patients suggests that these classifications might overestimate risk of ASCVD death. Downgrading patients with ≥ 3 additional ASCVD risk factors to the high-risk category is consistent with mortality data. Risk of death is very high in the presence of TOD irrespective of established ASCVD.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00715481.

Towards living guidelines on cardiorenal outcomes in diabetes: A pilot project of the Taskforce of the Guideline Workshop 2020

In June 2020, the Taskforce of the Guideline Workshop 2019 convened via teleconferencing to initiate a pilot project that demonstrates the various processes and considerations involved in developing high-quality, evidence-based clinical practice guidelines for the medical management of individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and its associated comorbidities, including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). The goal of the pilot project was to create evidence-based guidelines for use of sodium-glucose transport protein 2 inhibitors (SGLT2-I) when managing very high risk T2D patients, evidenced by the presence of both CVD and CKD. For this purpose the Taskforce represented a guideline panel and made use of synthesized evidence from an ongoing BMJ Rapid Recommendations project on SGLT2-I and GLP-1 receptor agonists. Results from the Taskforce pilot project demonstrated the value, feasibility and utility of using a step-wise approach to identifying and grading evidence and then developing actionable recommendations for utilizing SGLT2-I in this at-risk T2D population. This report describes the various steps involved in the process and explains how it can be utilized to rapidly develop recommendations in a format that is easy to use and can be quickly updated as new evidence becomes available, also within the emerging concept of living guidelines.

SGLT-2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists for adults with type 2 diabetes: a clinical practice guideline

CLINICAL QUESTION

What are the benefits and harms of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists when added to usual care (lifestyle interventions and/or other diabetes drugs) in adults with type 2 diabetes at different risk for cardiovascular and kidney outcomes?

CURRENT PRACTICE

Clinical decisions about treatment of type 2 diabetes have been led by glycaemic control for decades. SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists are traditionally used in people with elevated glucose level after metformin treatment. This has changed through trials demonstrating atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) benefits independent of medications' glucose-lowering potential.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The guideline panel issued risk-stratified recommendations concerning the use of SGLT-2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists in adults with type 2 diabetes• Three or fewer cardiovascular risk factors without established CVD or CKD: Weak recommendation against starting SGLT-2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists.• More than three cardiovascular risk factors without established CVD or CKD: Weak recommendation for starting SGLT-2 inhibitors and weak against starting GLP-1 receptor agonists.• Established CVD or CKD: Weak recommendation for starting SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists.• Established CVD and CKD: Strong recommendation for starting SGLT-2 inhibitors and weak recommendation for starting GLP-1 receptor agonists.• For those committed to further reducing their risk for CVD and CKD outcomes: Weak recommendation for starting SGLT-2 inhibitors rather than GLP-1 receptor agonists.

HOW THIS GUIDELINE WAS CREATED

An international panel including patients, clinicians, and methodologists created these recommendations following standards for trustworthy guidelines and using the GRADE approach. The panel applied an individual patient perspective.

THE EVIDENCE

A linked systematic review and network meta-analysis (764 randomised trials included 421 346 participants) of benefits and harms found that SGLT-2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists generally reduce overall death, and incidence of myocardial infarctions, and end-stage kidney disease or kidney failure (moderate to high certainty evidence). These medications exert different effects on stroke, hospitalisations for heart failure, and key adverse events in different subgroups. Absolute effects of benefit varied widely based on patients' individual risk (for example, from five fewer deaths in the lowest risk to 48 fewer deaths in the highest risk, for 1000 patients treated over five years). A prognosis review identified 14 eligible risk prediction models, one of which (RECODe) informed most baseline risk estimates in evidence summaries to underpin the risk-stratified recommendations. Concerning patients' values and preferences, the recommendations were supported by evidence from a systematic review of published literature, a patient focus group study, a practical issues summary, and a guideline panel survey.

UNDERSTANDING THE RECOMMENDATION

We stratified the recommendations by the levels of risk for CVD and CKD and systematically considered the balance of benefits, harms, other considerations, and practical issues for each risk group. The strong recommendation for SGLT-2 inhibitors in patients with CVD and CKD reflects what the panel considered to be a clear benefit. For all other adults with type 2 diabetes, the weak recommendations reflect what the panel considered to be a finer balance between benefits, harms, and burdens of treatment options. Clinicians using the guideline can identify their patient's individual risk for cardiovascular and kidney outcomes using credible risk calculators such as RECODe. Interactive evidence summaries and decision aids may support well informed treatment choices, including shared decision making.