Quantifying the impact of the Public Health Responsibility Deal on salt intake, cardiovascular disease and gastric cancer burdens: interrupted time series and microsimulation study

Economic effects of dietary salt reduction policies for cardiovascular disease prevention in Japan: a simulation study of hypothetical scenarios

Objective

Reducing dietary salt intake is an essential population strategy for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but evidence on healthcare costs and outcomes is limited in Japan. We aimed to conduct a pilot economic evaluation under hypothetical scenarios of applying the salt reduction policies of England to Japan.

Methods

We examined salt reduction policies in England: media health promotion campaigns, front-of-pack labeling, and voluntary and mandatory reformulation with best-case and worst-case policy cost scenarios. We assumed that these policies were conducted in Japan for 10 years from 2019. We used published data on epidemiology and healthcare expenditures in Japan and the costs and effects of salt reduction policies in England, and defined the benefits as a decrease in national medical expenditures on CVD. We developed a Markov cohort simulation model of the Japanese population. To estimate the annual net benefits of each policy over 10 years, we subtracted monitoring and policy costs from the benefits. We adopted a health sector perspective and a 2% discount rate.

Results

The cumulative net benefit over 10 years was largest for mandatory reformulation (best case) at 2,015.1 million USD (with costs of USD 48.3 million and benefits of USD 2063.5 million), followed by voluntary reformulation (net benefit: USD 1,895.1 million, cost: USD 48.1 million, benefit: USD 1,943.2 million), mandatory reformulation (worst case, net benefit: USD 1,447.9 million, cost: USD 1,174.5 million, benefit: USD 2,622.3 million), labeling (net benefit: USD 159.5 million, cost: USD 91.6 million, benefit: USD 251.0 million), and a media campaign (net benefit: USD 140.5 million, cost: USD 110.5 million, benefit: USD 251.0 million). There was no change in the superiority or inferiority of policies when the uncertainty of model parameters was considered.

Conclusion

Mandatory reformulation with the best-case cost scenario might be economically preferable to the other alternatives in Japan. In future research, domestic data on costs and effects of salt reduction policies should be incorporated for model refinement.

Projected health and economic impacts of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Germany: A cross-validation modelling study

BACKGROUND

Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been implemented globally to reduce the burden of cardiometabolic diseases by disincentivizing consumption through increased prices (e.g., 1 peso/litre tax in Mexico) or incentivizing industry reformulation to reduce SSB sugar content (e.g., tiered structure of the United Kingdom [UK] Soft Drinks Industry Levy [SDIL]). In Germany, where no tax on SSBs is enacted, the health and economic impact of SSB taxation using the experience from internationally implemented tax designs has not been evaluated. The objective of this study was to estimate the health and economic impact of national SSBs taxation scenarios in Germany.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In this modelling study, we evaluated a 20% ad valorem SSB tax with/without taxation of fruit juice (based on implemented SSB taxes and recommendations) and a tiered tax (based on the UK SDIL) in the German adult population aged 30 to 90 years from 2023 to 2043. We developed a microsimulation model (IMPACTNCD Germany) that captures the demographics, risk factor profile and epidemiology of type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in the German population using the best available evidence and national data. For each scenario, we estimated changes in sugar consumption and associated weight change. Resulting cases of cardiometabolic disease prevented/postponed and related quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and economic impacts from healthcare (medical costs) and societal (medical, patient time, and productivity costs) perspectives were estimated using national cost and health utility data. Additionally, we assessed structural uncertainty regarding direct, body mass index (BMI)-independent cardiometabolic effects of SSBs and cross-validated results with an independently developed cohort model (PRIMEtime). We found that SSB taxation could reduce sugar intake in the German adult population by 1 g/day (95%-uncertainty interval [0.05, 1.65]) for a 20% ad valorem tax on SSBs leading to reduced consumption through increased prices (pass-through of 82%) and 2.34 g/day (95%-UI [2.32, 2.36]) for a tiered tax on SSBs leading to 30% reduction in SSB sugar content via reformulation. Through reductions in obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD), 106,000 (95%-UI [57,200, 153,200]) QALYs could be gained with a 20% ad valorem tax and 192,300 (95%-UI [130,100, 254,200]) QALYs with a tiered tax. Respectively, €9.6 billion (95%-UI [4.7, 15.3]) and €16.0 billion (95%-UI [8.1, 25.5]) costs could be saved from a societal perspective over 20 years. Impacts of the 20% ad valorem tax were larger when additionally taxing fruit juice (252,400 QALYs gained, 95%-UI [176,700, 325,800]; €11.8 billion costs saved, 95%-UI [€6.7, €17.9]), but impacts of all scenarios were reduced when excluding direct health effects of SSBs. Cross-validation with PRIMEtime showed similar results. Limitations include remaining uncertainties in the economic and epidemiological evidence and a lack of product-level data.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that SSB taxation in Germany could help to reduce the national burden of noncommunicable diseases and save a substantial amount of societal costs. A tiered tax designed to incentivize reformulation of SSBs towards less sugar might have a larger population-level health and economic impact than an ad valorem tax that incentivizes consumer behaviour change only through increased prices.

Salt intake, blood pressure and cardiovascular disease mortality in England, 2003-2018

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess the changes in salt intake and concomitant changes in blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in England from 2003 to 2018.

METHODS

National surveys and death registration data were used for the analysis of salt intake as measured by 24-h urinary sodium excretion (449-1069 participants per year), BP (2651-6738 participants per year) and CVD mortality.

RESULTS

A decline in salt intake from 9.38 (SD 4.64) to 7.58 (3.41) g/d was observed between 2003 and 2014 ( P  < 0.01), followed by an increase to 8.39 (4.13) g/d in 2018 ( P  < 0.01). Similar trends in BP and CVD mortality were also observed between 2003 and 2018. SBP/DBP decreased from 125.3 (15.92)/74.48 (11.33) mmHg to 122.57 (14.92)/73.33 (10.75) mmHg between 2003 and 2014 ( P  < 0.01), followed by a plateau up to 2018 [122.04 (14.64)/73.84 (10.54) mmHg, P  > 0.05]. Likewise, a fall in stroke and ischaemic heart disease mortality rates was observed between 2003 and 2014, from 12.24 and 43.44 cases per 100 000, to 8.19 and 27.23 cases per 100 000 ( P  < 0.01), respectively, followed by a plateau afterwards ( P  > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The UK salt reduction programme was initially successful in reducing population salt intake by 19% (from 9.38 g/d in 2003 to 7.58 g/d in 2014). However, in recent years, the programme stalled and thus led to an interruption in the decline of salt intake. BP and CVD mortality reduction was also interrupted when salt reduction stalled. The changes in salt intake may have played an important role in the concomitant changes in BP and CVD mortality. Urgent action is needed to reinvigorate the UK's once world-leading salt reduction programme.

Estimating Canadian sodium intakes and the health impact of meeting national and WHO recommended sodium intake levels: A macrosimulation modelling study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the second leading cause of total deaths in Canada. High blood pressure is the main metabolic risk factor for developing CVDs. It has been well established that excess consumption of sodium adversely affects blood pressure. Canadians' mean sodium intakes are well above recommended levels. Reducing dietary sodium intake through food reformulation has been identified as a cost-effective intervention, however, dietary sodium intake and the potential health impact of meeting recommended sodium intake levels due to food reformulation have not been determined in Canada.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to 1) obtain robust estimates of Canadians' usual sodium intakes, 2) model sodium intakes had foods been reformulated to align with Health Canada's sodium reduction targets, and 3) estimate the number of CVD deaths that could be averted or delayed if Canadian adults were to reduce their mean sodium intake to recommended levels under three scenarios: A) 2,300 mg/d-driven by a reduction of sodium levels in packaged foods to meet Health Canada targets (reformulation); B) 2,000 mg/d to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation; and C) 1,500 mg/d to meet the Adequate Intake recommendation.

METHODS

Foods in the University of Toronto's Food Label Information Program 2017, a Canadian branded food composition database, were linked to nationally representative food intake data from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition to estimate sodium intakes (and intakes had Health Canada's reformulation strategy been fully implemented). The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) was used to estimate potential health impact.

RESULTS

Overall, mean sodium intake was 2758 mg/day, varying by age and sex group. Based on 'reformulation' scenario A, mean sodium intakes were reduced by 459 mg/day, to 2299 mg/day. Reducing Canadians' sodium intake to recommended levels under scenarios A, B and C could have averted or delayed 2,176 (95% UI 869-3,687), 3,252 (95% UI 1,380-5,321), and 5,296 (95% UI 2,190-8,311) deaths due to CVDs, respectively, mainly from ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and hypertensive disease. This represents 3.7%, 5.6%, and 9.1%, respectively, of the total number of CVDs deaths observed in Canada in 2019.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest that reducing sodium intake to recommended levels could prevent or postpone a substantial number of CVD deaths in Canada. Reduced sodium intakes could be achieved through reformulation of the Canadian food supply. However, it will require higher compliance from the food industry to achieve Health Canada's voluntary benchmark sodium reduction targets.

Changes in the salt content of packaged foods sold in supermarkets between 2015-2020 in the United Kingdom: A repeated cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Excess consumption of salt is linked to an increased risk of hypertension and cardiovascular disease. The United Kingdom has had a comprehensive salt reduction programme since 2003, setting a series of progressively lower, product-specific reformulation targets for the food industry, combined with advice to consumers to reduce salt. The aim of this study was to assess the changes in the sales-weighted mean salt content of grocery foods sold through retail between 2015 and 2020 by category and company.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Information for products, including salt content (g/100 g), was collected online from retailer websites for 6 consecutive years (2015 to 2020) and was matched with brand-level retail sales data from Euromonitor for 395 brands. The sales-weighted mean salt content and total volume of salt sold were calculated by category and company. The mean salt content of included foods fell by 0.05 g/100 g, from 1.04 g/100 g in 2015 to 0.90 g/100 g in 2020, equivalent to -4.2% (p = 0.13). The categories with the highest salt content in 2020 were savoury snacks (1.6 g/100 g) and cheese (1.6 g/100 g), and the categories that saw the greatest reductions in mean salt content over time were breakfast cereals (-16.0%, p = 0.65); processed beans, potatoes, and vegetables (-10.6%, p = 0.11); and meat, seafood, and alternatives (-9.2%, p = 0.56). The total volume of salt sold fell from 2.41 g per person per day to 2.25 g per person per day, a reduction of 0.16 g or 6.7% (p = 0.54). The majority (63%) of this decrease was attributable to changes in mean salt content, with the remaining 37% accounted for by reductions in sales. Across the top 5 companies in each of 9 categories, the volume of salt sold decreased in 26 and increased in 19 cases. This study is limited by its exclusion of foods purchased out of the home, including at restaurants, cafes, and takeaways. It also does not include salt added at the table, or that naturally occurring in foods, meaning the findings underrepresent the population's total salt intake. The assumption was also made that the products matched with the sales data were entirely representative of the brand, which may not be the case if products are sold exclusively in convenience stores or markets, which are not included in this database.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been a small decline in the salt content of foods and total volume of salt sold between 2015 and 2020, but observed changes were not statistically significant so could be due to random variations over time. We suggest that mandatory reporting of salt sales by large food companies would increase the transparency of how individual businesses are progressing towards the salt reduction targets.

Ultra-processed foods and cancer risk: from global food systems to individual exposures and mechanisms

Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) have become increasingly dominant globally, contributing to as much as 60% of total daily energy intake in some settings. Epidemiological evidence suggests this worldwide shift in food processing may partly be responsible for the global obesity epidemic and chronic disease burden. However, prospective studies examining the association between UPF consumption and cancer outcomes are limited. Available evidence suggests that UPFs may increase cancer risk via their obesogenic properties as well as through exposure to potentially carcinogenic compounds such as certain food additives and neoformed processing contaminants. We identify priority areas for future research and policy implications, including improved understanding of the potential dual harms of UPFs on the environment and cancer risk. The prevention of cancers related to the consumption of UPFs could be tackled using different strategies, including behaviour change interventions among consumers as well as bolder public health policies needed to improve food environments.

Adesão aos acordos voluntários de redução de sódio no Brasil

Resumo O objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar a adesão aos acordos voluntários de redução de sódio firmados entre indústrias de alimentos e o Ministério da Saúde e comparar as metas adotadas com o limite de sódio proposto no modelo de perfil nutricional da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS). Utilizaram-se informações de 1.553 alimentos de 32 categorias incluídas nos acordos e comercializados nas maiores redes de supermercados brasileiras em 2017. Foram calculadas as proporções de produtos com quantidade de sódio igual ou abaixo do limite proposto pelos acordos e pela OPAS. A concordância de classificação dos itens segundo os dois critérios foi avaliada com o coeficiente kappa de Cohen (k). Nossos resultados mostraram que 77,7% dos alimentos analisados estavam adequados segundo os acordos de redução de sódio, porém apenas 35,9%, segundo o modelo da OPAS. A concordância entre os dois critérios ao classificar um produto como adequado em relação ao conteúdo de sódio foi fraca (k = 0,199). Conclui-se que os acordos voluntários de redução de sódio são limitados em relação à abrangência e ao rigor das metas estabelecidas. A adoção de medidas voltadas a todos os produtos disponíveis, com metas mais restritivas e obrigatórias, deveria ser considerada no país.

Applications of Complex Systems Models to Improve Retail Food Environments for Population Health: A Scoping Review

Retail food environments (RFEs) are complex systems with important implications for population health. Studying the complexity within RFEs comes with challenges. Complex systems models are computational tools that can help. We performed a systematic scoping review of studies that used complex systems models to study RFEs for population health. We examined the purpose for using the model, RFE features represented, extent to which the complex systems approach was maximized, and quality and transparency of methods employed. The PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) guidelines were followed. Studies using agent-based modeling, system dynamics, discrete event simulations, networks, hybrid, or microsimulation models were identified from 7 multidisciplinary databases. Fifty-six studies met the inclusion criteria, including 23 microsimulation, 13 agent-based, 10 hybrid, 4 system dynamics, 4 network, and 2 discrete event simulation models. Most studies (n = 45) used models for experimental purposes and evaluated effects of simulated RFE policies and interventions. RFE characteristics simulated in models were diverse, and included the features (e.g., prices) customers encounter when shopping (n = 55), the settings (e.g., restaurants, supermarkets) where customers purchase food and beverages (n = 30), and the actors (e.g., store managers, suppliers) who make decisions that influence RFEs (n = 25). All models incorporated characteristics of complexity (e.g., feedbacks, conceptual representation of multiple levels), but these were captured to varying degrees across model types. The quality of methods was adequate overall; however, few studies engaged stakeholders (n = 10) or provided sufficient transparency to verify the model (n = 12). Complex systems models are increasingly utilized to study RFEs and their contributions to public health. Opportunities to advance the use of these approaches remain, and areas to improve future research are discussed. This comprehensive review provides the first marker of the utility of leveraging these approaches to address RFEs for population health.

Microsimulation Modelling in Food Policy: A Scoping Review of Methodological Aspects

Food policies for the prevention and management of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have been increasingly relying on microsimulation models (MSMs) to assess effectiveness. Given the increased uptake of MSMs, this review aims to provide an overview of the characteristics of MSMs that link diets with NCDs. A comprehensive review was conducted in PubMed and Web of Knowledge. Inclusion criteria were: (i) findings from a MSM, (ii) diets, foods or nutrients as main exposure of interest, (iii) NCDs, such as overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke or cancer as disease outcome for impact assessment. This review included information from 33 studies using MSM in analyzing diet and diverse food policies on NCDs. Hereby, most models employed stochastic, discrete-time, dynamic microsimulation techniques to calculate anticipated (cost-)effectiveness of strategies based on food pricing, food reformulation or dietary (lifestyle) interventions. Currently available models differ in the methodology used for quantifying the effect of the dietary changes on disease, and in the method for modelling disease incidence and mortality. However, all studies provided evidence that the models were sufficiently capturing the close-to-reality situation by justifying their choice of model parameters and validating externally their modelled disease incidence and mortality with observed or predicted event data. With the increasing use of various MSMs, between-model comparisons, facilitated by open access models and good reporting practices, would be important for judging model's accuracy, leading to continued improvement in the methodologies for developing and applying MSMs, and subsequently a better understanding of the results by policymakers.

A STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE

Given the advancement in the application of microsimulation modelling in evaluating food policies and measuring diet-related disease burdens, the present scoping review serves as an exercise to inform future modelling, hereby highlighting the need for transparency in model development, application and dissemination to advance and safeguard accuracy and relevance in modelling efforts.

The estimated health impact of sodium reduction through food reformulation in Australia: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

The Australian Government recently established sodium targets for packaged foods to encourage voluntary reformulation to reduce population sodium consumption and related diseases. We modeled the health impact of Australia's sodium reformulation targets and additional likely health gains if more ambitious, yet feasible sodium targets had been adopted instead.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using comparative risk assessment models, we estimated the averted deaths, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and stomach cancer after implementation of (a) Australia's sodium targets (overall and by individual companies); (b) United Kingdom's targets (that covers more product categories); and (c) an optimistic scenario (sales-weighted 25th percentile sodium content for each food category included in the UK program). We used nationally representative data to estimate pre- and post-intervention sodium intake, and other key data sources from the Global Burden of Disease study. Full compliance with the Australian government's sodium targets could prevent approximately 510 deaths/year (95% UI, 335 to 757), corresponding to about 1% of CVD, CKD, and stomach cancer deaths, and prevent some 1,920 (1,274 to 2,600) new cases and 7,240 (5,138 to 10,008) DALYs/year attributable to these diseases. Over half (59%) of deaths prevented is attributed to reformulation by 5 market-dominant companies. Compliance with the UK and optimistic scenario could avert approximately an additional 660 (207 to 1,227) and 1,070 (511 to 1,856) deaths/year, respectively, compared to Australia's targets. The main limitation of this study (like other modeling studies) is that it does not prove that sodium reformulation programs will prevent deaths and disease events; rather, it provides the best quantitative estimates and the corresponding uncertainty of the potential effect of the different programs to guide the design of policies.

CONCLUSIONS

There is significant potential to strengthen Australia's sodium reformulation targets to improve its health impact. Promoting compliance by market-dominant food companies will be critical to achieving the potential health gains.

Simulation Modeling for the Economic Evaluation of Population-Based Dietary Policies: A Systematic Scoping Review

Simulation modeling can be useful to estimate the long-term health and economic impacts of population-based dietary policies. We conducted a systematic scoping review following the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) guideline to map and critically appraise economic evaluations of population-based dietary policies using simulation models. We searched Medline, Embase, and EconLit for studies published in English after 2005. Modeling studies were mapped based on model type, dietary policy, and nutritional target, and modeled risk factor-outcome pathways were analyzed. We included 56 studies comprising 136 model applications evaluating dietary policies in 21 countries. The policies most often assessed were reformulation (34/136), taxation (27/136), and labeling (20/136); the most common targets were salt/sodium (60/136), sugar-sweetened beverages (31/136), and fruit and vegetables (15/136). Model types included Markov-type (35/56), microsimulation (11/56), and comparative risk assessment (7/56) models. Overall, the key diet-related risk factors and health outcomes were modeled, but only 1 study included overall diet quality as a risk factor. Information about validation was only reported in 19 of 56 studies and few studies (14/56) analyzed the equity impacts of policies. Commonly included cost components were health sector (52/56) and public sector implementation costs (35/56), as opposed to private sector (18/56), lost productivity (11/56), and informal care costs (3/56). Most dietary policies (103/136) were evaluated as cost-saving independent of the applied costing perspective. An analysis of the main limitations reported by authors revealed that model validity, uncertainty of dietary effect estimates, and long-term intervention assumptions necessitate a careful interpretation of results. In conclusion, simulation modeling is widely applied in the economic evaluation of population-based dietary policies but rarely takes dietary complexity and the equity dimensions of policies into account. To increase relevance for policymakers and support diet-related disease prevention, economic effects beyond the health sector should be considered, and transparent conduct and reporting of model validation should be improved.

Estimating the health and economic effects of the voluntary sodium reduction targets in Brazil: microsimulation analysis

BACKGROUND

Excessive sodium consumption is one of the leading dietary risk factors for non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), mediated by high blood pressure. Brazil has implemented voluntary sodium reduction targets with food industries since 2011. This study aimed to analyse the potential health and economic impact of these sodium reduction targets in Brazil from 2013 to 2032.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation of a close-to-reality synthetic population (IMPACTNCD-BR) to evaluate the potential health benefits of setting voluntary upper limits for sodium content as part of the Brazilian government strategy. The model estimates CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, and disease treatment costs. Model inputs were informed by the 2013 National Health Survey, the 2008-2009 Household Budget Survey, and high-quality meta-analyses, assuming that all individuals were exposed to the policy proportionally to their sodium intake from processed food. Costs included costs of the National Health System on CVD treatment and informal care costs. The primary outcome measures of the model are cardiovascular disease cases and deaths prevented or postponed over 20 years (2013-2032), stratified by age and sex.

RESULTS

The study found that the application of the Brazilian voluntary sodium targets for packaged foods between 2013 and 2032 could prevent or postpone approximately 110,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty intervals (UI): 28,000 to 260,000) among men and 70,000 cases among women (95% UI: 16,000 to 170,000), and also prevent or postpone approximately 2600 CVD deaths (95% UI: - 1000 to 11,000), 55% in men. The policy could also produce a net cost saving of approximately US$ 220 million (95% UI: US$ 54 to 520 million) in medical costs to the Brazilian National Health System for the treatment of CHD and stroke and save approximately US$ 71 million (95% UI: US$ 17 to170 million) in informal costs.

CONCLUSION

Brazilian voluntary sodium targets could generate substantial health and economic impacts. The reduction in sodium intake that was likely achieved from the voluntary targets indicates that sodium reduction in Brazil must go further and faster to achieve the national and World Health Organization goals for sodium intake.

Improvement in the Mortality-to-Incidence Ratios for Gastric Cancer in Developed Countries With High Health Expenditures

The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) is widely used to evaluate the efficacy of cancer management outcomes for individual countries. However, the association among health care expenditure, human development index (HDI), and changes in MIR over time (δMIR) remains unknown. We aimed to elucidate the significance between these indicators and gastric cancer outcomes in different countries. Among the regions, Asia had the highest number of new gastric cancer cases, gastric cancer-related deaths, age-standardized ratio of incidence, and mortality. Chile had the highest age-standardized ratio (ASR) for gastric cancer incidence and the highest ASR for mortality. Moreover, MIR was highest in Africa (0.91) and lowest in North America (0.43). Of note, MIR was negatively associated with HDI, current health expenditure (CHE) per capita, and CHE/GDP % and δMIR was positively associated with CHE/GDP % in countries with very high HDI. However, δMIR showed no significant associations with these indicators in the countries analyzed. In conclusion, increased HDI, CHE per capita, and CHE/GDP are associated with improved gastric cancer outcomes. In addition, the δMIR could be an indicator that can be used to evaluate the improvement in cancer management outcomes over time.

Contribution of reformulation, product renewal, and changes in consumer behavior to the reduction of salt intakes in the UK population between 2008/2009 and 2016/2017

BACKGROUND

The UK salt reduction program started in 2003, consisting of education campaigns to raise awareness about the risks associated with a high-salt diet and of a reformulation strategy for food manufacturers. This program is often cited as an example of a successful public health program.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess: 1) the impacts of changes in food composition and changes in consumer behavior on sodium intakes; and 2) whether changes were similar across socioeconomic groups.

METHODS

Food intakes for the UK population were derived from food diaries in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey for 2008/09 (year 1; n = 1334) and 2016/17 (year 9; n = 995). Year-specific sodium densities of foods were used to calculate the average sodium density of all food and beverage consumed. Changes in sodium density between the 2 years were explained by changes in food composition (change in sodium density of products) and/or changes in behavior (type and quantity of food consumed) using a decomposition approach.

RESULTS

The program was linked to a 16% (95% CI: -21% to -12%) decrease in sodium intake between years 1 and 9, while the sodium density of foods consumed decreased by 17% (95% CI: -21% to -12%). This decrease was largely driven by reformulation (-12.0 mg/100 g). Changes in food choices reinforced the effects of the program, but had a smaller impact (-1.6 mg/100 g). These effects were similar across socioeconomic groups, whether stratified by education or income, with a consistent effect of reformulation across groups and no differences between groups in behavioral responses to the program.

CONCLUSIONS

A multi-component sodium reduction strategy deployed in the United Kingdom starting in 2003 corresponded to an important reduction in sodium intakes for the population. This reduction was mostly driven by changes in the food environment (reformulated food products to reduce the sodium density of foods) and, to a smaller extent, by changes in food choices. Impacts were consistent across socioeconomic groups.

What is the impact of food reformulation on individuals' behaviour, nutrient intakes and health status? A systematic review of empirical evidence

Food reformulation aimed at improving the nutritional properties of food products has long been viewed as a promising public health strategy to tackle poor nutrition and obesity. This paper presents a review of the empirical evidence (i.e., modelling studies were excluded) on the impact of food reformulation on food choices, nutrient intakes and health status, based on a systematic search of Medline, Embase, Global Health and sources of grey literature. Fifty-nine studies (in 35 papers) were included in the review. Most studies examined food choices (n = 27) and dietary intakes (n = 26). The nutrients most frequently studied were sodium (n = 32) and trans fatty acids (TFA, n = 13). Reformulated products were generally accepted and purchased by consumers, which led to improved nutrient intakes in 73% of studies. We also conducted two meta-analyses showing, respectively, a -0.57 g/day (95%CI, -0.89 to -0.25) reduction in salt intake and an effect size for TFA intake reduction of -1.2 (95% CI, -1.79 to -0.61). Only six studies examined effects on health outcomes, with studies on TFA reformulation showing overall improvement in cardiovascular risk factors. For other nutrients, it remains unclear whether observed improvements in food choices or nutrient intakes may have led to an improvement in health outcomes.

Estratégias para redução do consumo de nutrientes críticos para a saúde: o caso do sódio

Doenças crônicas não transmissíveis correspondem à principal causa de morte no mundo e têm a alimentação inadequada como um de seus principais fatores de risco modificáveis, destacando-se o consumo excessivo de sódio e sua associação com doenças cardiovasculares, mediadas pela pressão arterial. Este estudo avaliou o impacto de diferentes cenários de políticas para a redução do consumo de sódio com base em alimentos processados e ultraprocessados na prevenção de mortes por desfechos cardiovasculares na população adulta no Brasil. Foram utilizados dados secundários, de relatórios e bases públicas do Sistema Único de Saúde e de inquéritos populacionais. Foram analisados os impactos, até 2027, de três cenários: manutenção das atuais metas voluntárias, e dois cenários mandatórios, considerando as menores metas nas Américas e as menores metas mundiais. Para a análise das mortes prevenidas ou adiadas com base no consumo de sódio em tais cenários foi utilizado o Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME). Em 2027, mais de 72 mil mortes seriam atribuíveis ao excesso de sódio e as metas voluntárias resultariam na prevenção ou adiamento de até 4.001 (intervalos de 95% de incerteza - II95%: 1.611-6.563) mortes, e os cenários mandatórios resultariam na prevenção de 9.704 (II95%: 3.955-15.665) e 15.561 (II95%: 6.350-25.096) mortes por doenças cardiovasculares, considerando as menores metas regionais e internacionais, respectivamente. Os achados sugerem que a manutenção de metas voluntárias tem impacto limitado quando comparada a cenários possíveis e mais restritivos de redução do teor de sódio em alimentos processados e ultraprocessados, e reforçam a necessidade de adoção de medidas com maior efetividade no país.

A continuous data driven translational model to evaluate effectiveness of population-level health interventions: case study, smoking ban in public places on hospital admissions for acute coronary events

BACKGROUND

An important task in developing accurate public health intervention evaluation methods based on historical interrupted time series (ITS) records is to determine the exact lag time between pre- and post-intervention. We propose a novel continuous transitional data-driven hybrid methodology using a non-linear approach based on a combination of stochastic and artificial intelligence methods that facilitate the evaluation of ITS data without knowledge of lag time. Understanding the influence of implemented intervention on outcome(s) is imperative for decision makers in order to manage health systems accurately and in a timely manner.

METHODS

To validate a developed hybrid model, we used, as an example, a published dataset based on a real health problem on the effects of the Italian smoking ban in public spaces on hospital admissions for acute coronary events. We employed a continuous methodology based on data preprocessing to identify linear and nonlinear components in which autoregressive moving average and generalized structure group method of data handling were combined to model stochastic and nonlinear components of ITS. We analyzed the rate of admission for acute coronary events from January 2002 to November 2006 using this new data-driven hybrid methodology that allowed for long-term outcome prediction.

RESULTS

Our results showed the Pearson correlation coefficient of the proposed combined transitional data-driven model exhibited an average of 17.74% enhancement from the single stochastic model and 2.05% from the nonlinear model. In addition, data demonstrated that the developed model improved the mean absolute percentage error and correlation coefficient values for which 2.77% and 0.89 were found compared to 4.02% and 0.76, respectively. Importantly, this model does not use any predefined lag time between pre- and post-intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

Most of the previous studies employed the linear regression and considered a lag time to interpret the impact of intervention on public health outcome. The proposed hybrid methodology improved ITS prediction from conventional methods and could be used as a reliable alternative in public health intervention evaluation.

Curtis C, Frieden TR, Cobb LK. Priority Actions to Advance Population Sodium Reduction

High sodium intake is estimated to cause approximately 3 million deaths per year worldwide. The estimated average sodium intake of 3.95 g/day far exceeds the recommended intake. Population sodium reduction should be a global priority, while simultaneously ensuring universal salt iodization. This article identifies high priority strategies that address major sources of sodium: added to packaged food, added to food consumed outside the home, and added in the home. To be included, strategies needed to be scalable and sustainable, have large benefit, and applicable to one of four measures of effectiveness: (1) Rigorously evaluated with demonstrated success in reducing sodium; (2) suggestive evidence from lower quality evaluations or modeling; (3) rigorous evaluations of similar interventions not specifically for sodium reduction; or (4) an innovative approach for sources of sodium that are not sufficiently addressed by an existing strategy. We identified seven priority interventions. Four target packaged food: front-of-pack labeling, packaged food reformulation targets, regulating food marketing to children, and taxes on high sodium foods. One targets food consumed outside the home: food procurement policies for public institutions. Two target sodium added at home: mass media campaigns and population uptake of low-sodium salt. In conclusion, governments have many tools to save lives by reducing population sodium intake.

Healthy Foods and Healthy Diets. How Government Policies Can Steer Food Reformulation

Food reformulation policies aimed at reducing the risk of diet-related non-communicable diseases have been implemented in many countries. The degree of success of reformulation policies in changing the range of food options available to consumers has been a function of the design of these policies. Our objective was to review the different factors making the design and implementation of a food reformulation policy effective at improving populations’ diets and health. In this narrative review, we present a logic model of the action of reformulation policies on consumer behaviour, dietary intake and population health. We set out how policy design could drive outcomes, and highlight the role for governments and public health agencies in promoting food reformulation that is effective in improving diet and health. The key drivers of success for reformulation policies include strong incentives, a tight implementation strategy, a focus on the overall nutritional quality of food products, rather than on individual nutrients, and effective monitoring and evaluation. Additionally, policies should mark the distinction between product reformulation and product differentiation, which have different nutrition and health outcomes.