Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia

PREVENT Equation: The Black Sheep among Cardiovascular Risk Scores? A Comparative Agreement Analysis of Nine Prediction Models in High-Risk Lithuanian Women

Background and Objectives: In the context of female cardiovascular risk categorization, we aimed to assess the inter-model agreement between nine risk prediction models (RPM): the novel Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs (PREVENT) equation, assessing cardiovascular risk using SIGN, the Australian CVD risk score, the Framingham Risk Score for Hard Coronary Heart Disease (FRS-hCHD), the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis risk score, the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE), the QRISK3 cardiovascular risk calculator, the Reynolds Risk Score, and Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation-2 (SCORE2). Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 6527 40-65-year-old women with diagnosed metabolic syndrome from a single tertiary university hospital in Lithuania. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the nine RPMs, and the results were categorized into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups. Inter-model agreement was quantified using Cohen's Kappa coefficients. Results: The study uncovered a significant diversity in risk categorization, with agreement on risk category by all models in only 1.98% of cases. The SCORE2 model primarily classified subjects as high-risk (68.15%), whereas the FRS-hCHD designated the majority as low-risk (94.42%). The range of Cohen's Kappa coefficients (-0.09-0.64) reflects the spectrum of agreement between models. Notably, the PREVENT model demonstrated significant agreement with QRISK3 (κ = 0.55) and PCE (κ = 0.52) but was completely at odds with the SCORE2 (κ = -0.09). Conclusions: Cardiovascular RPM selection plays a pivotal role in influencing clinical decisions and managing patient care. The PREVENT model revealed balanced results, steering clear of the extremes seen in both SCORE2 and FRS-hCHD. The highest concordance was observed between the PREVENT model and both PCE and QRISK3 RPMs. Conversely, the SCORE2 model demonstrated consistently low or negative agreement with other models, highlighting its unique approach to risk categorization. These findings accentuate the need for additional research to assess the predictive accuracy of these models specifically among the Lithuanian female population.

Framingham risk score based vascular outcomes in acute versus chronic HIV cohorts after 6 years of ART

INTRODUCTION

Immune dysregulation persists in people with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and may lead to accelerated vascular ageing and cardiovascular disease (CVD). While delayed time to initiation of ART has been linked to worse cardiovascular outcomes, the effect of ART initiation during acute infection on these outcomes is not well understood.

METHODS

Participants were enrolled from the SEARCH010/RV254 acute HIV (AHI) and HIV-NAT chronic HIV (CHI) cohorts in Thailand. Participants with 6-year follow-up and viral suppression (viral load < 50 copies/μL) at follow-up were included. Both unmatched cohorts and age and gender-matched cohorts were analysed. Demographics, HIV laboratories, and cardiovascular risk factors from enrolment and 6-year follow-up were obtained from electronic records. Framingham Risk Score (FRS), vascular age (VA), vascular age deviation (VAD), and 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk were calculated from previously published equations. Vascular outcomes in AHI and CHI cohorts were compared, and univariable and multivariable linear regression analyses were used to investigate risk factors associated with worse vascular scores.

RESULTS

In all, 373 AHI participants and 608 CHI participants were identified. AHI participants were of younger age, had a higher prevalence of syphilis and a lower prevalence of prior hepatitis B, tuberculosis, diabetes, and hypertension. Higher CD4 T-cell and lower CD8 T-cell counts were seen in the AHI cohort at enrolment and 6-year follow-up. In all participants, the AHI cohort had a lower median FRS (p < 0.001) and VA (p < 0.001), but higher VAD (p < 0.001). However, in matched cohorts, no differences were found in FRS-based outcomes. In all participants, higher VAD after 6 years of ART was associated with higher body mass index (p < 0.001) and higher CD4 count (p < 0.001), which persisted in multivariable analysis. When FRS components were analysed individually, CD4 count was associated only with male sex and cholesterol.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not identify differences in FRS-based vascular outcomes at 6 years in matched cohorts of participants who started ART during AHI versus CHI. We identified a correlation between higher CD4 count and worse FRS-based vascular outcomes, which may be driven by underlying metabolic risk factors. Further study is needed to confirm these findings and evaluate underlying mechanisms.

A risk stratification model modified from the U.S. guideline could be applied in an Asian population with or without ASCVD: Validation study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the performance of a modified U.S. (MUS) model for risk prediction of cardiovascular (CV) events in Asian patients and compare it to European and Japanese models.

METHODS

The MUS model, based on the US ACC/AHA 2018 lipid treatment guideline, was employed to stratify patients under primary or secondary prevention. Two multi-center prospective observational registry cohorts, T-SPARCLE and T-PPARCLE, were used to validate the scoring system, and the primary outcome was the time to first occurrence/recurrence of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs). The MUS model's performance was compared to other models from Europe and Japan.

RESULTS

A total of 10,733 patients with the mean age of 64.2 (SD: 11.9) and 36.5% female were followed up for a median of 5.4 years. The MUS model was validated, with an AUC score of 0.73 (95% CI 0.68-0.78). The European and Japanese models had AUC scores ranging from 0.6 to 0.7. The MUS model categorized patients into four distinct CV risk groups, with hazard ratios (HRs) as follows: very high- vs. high-risk group (HR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.53-2.39), high- vs. moderate-risk group (HR = 2.08, 95% CI 1.60-2.69), and moderate- vs. low-risk group (HR = 3.14, 95% CI 1.63-6.03). After adjusting for the MUS model, a history of atherosclerotic vascular disease (ASCVD) was not a significant predictor of adverse cardiovascular outcomes within each risk group.

CONCLUSION

The MUS model is an effective tool for risk stratification in Asian patients with and without ASCVD, accurately predicting MACEs and performing comparably or better than other established risk models. Our findings suggest that patient management should focus on background risk factors instead of solely on primary or secondary prevention.

Cost-utility analysis of community-based interventions for hypertension control in Vietnam

Between 2010 and 2011, stakeholders implemented a multi-faceted community-based intervention in response to the escalating issue of uncontrolled hypertension in Hung Yen province, Vietnam. This initiative integrated expanded community health worker services, home blood pressure self-monitoring, and a unique "storytelling intervention" into routine clinical care. From the limited societal perspective, our study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of this intervention using a Markov model with a one-year cycle over a lifetime horizon. The analysis, based on a cohort of 671 patients, reveals a lifetime incremental cost of approximately VND 90.37 million (USD 3,930) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. With a willingness to pay at three times GDP (VND 259.2 million per QALY), the intervention proves cost-effective 80% of the time. This research underscores the potential of the community-based approach to effectively control hypertension, offering valuable insights into its broader implications for public health.

Risk equations for prosthetic joint infections (PJIs) in UK: a retrospective study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) AURUM and GOLD databases

BACKGROUND

Prosthetic joint infections (PJIs) are a serious negative outcome of arthroplasty with incidence of about 1%. Risk of PJI could depend on local treatment policies and guidelines; no UK-specific risk scoring is currently available.

OBJECTIVE

To determine a risk quantification model for the development of PJI using electronic health records.

DESIGN

Records in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD and AURUM of patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty between January 2007 and December 2014, with linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics, were obtained. Cohorts' characteristics and risk equations through parametric models were developed and compared between the two databases. Pooled cohort risk equations were determined for the UK population and simplified through stepwise selection.

RESULTS

After applying the inclusion/exclusion criteria, 174 905 joints (1021 developed PJI) were identified in CPRD AURUM and 48 419 joints (228 developed PJI) in CPRD GOLD. Patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty in both databases exhibited different sociodemographic characteristics and medical/drug history. However, the quantification of the impact of such covariates (coefficients of parametric models fitted to the survival curves) on the risk of PJI between the two cohorts was not statistically significant. The log-normal model fitted to the pooled cohorts after stepwise selection had a C-statistic >0.7.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk prediction tool developed here could help prevent PJI through identifying modifiable risk factors pre-surgery and identifying the patients most likely to benefit from close monitoring/preventive actions. As derived from the UK population, such tool will help the National Health Service reduce the impact of PJI on its resources and patient lives.

The 10-year cardiovascular risk of physicians estimated by the Thai CV risk score and its association with current coronary artery disease: A retrospective study

Background and Aims

To assess the 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among Thai physicians. The risk compared to the general population and their relationship with the current coronary artery disease (CAD) were also examined.

Methods

This retrospective study collected data of Thai physicians who underwent cardiovascular assessments between February 14, 2022, and October 31, 2022. The CVD risk was calculated using the Thai CVD risk (TCVR) score, which incorporated variables of age, gender, smoking, diabetes mellitus, blood pressure, and total cholesterol. Additional collected data included family history of CAD, weekly work hours, fiber diet, exercise, body mass index, coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, and presence of CAD. The association between the risk levels with presence of CAD and clinical features including CAC score were analyzed.

Results

Of 1225 physicians, the risk for CVD development was categorized as low in 80.0%, moderate in 11.2%, high in 4.9%, and very high in 3.9%. Among these, 33.6% were found to have higher relative risk compared to the general population of the same age and gender. The overall prevalence of CAD was 11.2%. This prevalence was escalated by risk or relative risk groups: 4.9% in low-, 33.8% in moderate-, 35.1% in high-, and 46.8% in very high-risk groups or 7.2% in lower risk, 8.0% the same risk, and 18.4% higher relative risk groups.

Conclusions

Approximately, 20% of Thai physicians in the study exhibited a moderate to very high 10-year risk of CVD. Furthermore, 33.6% of the physicians had higher risk than individuals of the same age and gender in the general population. The prevalence of CAD increased with higher CVD risk and higher relative risk.

SCORE and SCORE2 in East Asian Population: A Performance Comparison

Background

Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and SCORE2-Older Persons (OP) models have been proposed as new cardiovascular risk evaluation tools.

Objectives

This study evaluated the performance of SCORE/SCORE-OP and SCORE2/SCORE2-OP in the East Asian population by using population-based cohort data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) Health Screening Cohort of Korea.

Methods

A total of 324,384 NHIS examinees from 2004 to 2005 were divided into 5 age groups: 40-49 years, 50-59 years, 60-69 years,70-79 years, and more than 80 years. The examinees had their predicted cardiovascular disease risks calculated by using SCORE, SCORE2, SCORE-OP, and SCORE2-OP models. The low-risk model was applied on the basis of the cohort's observed event rates. The observed and predicted cardiovascular risks were compared.

Results

A total of 324,384 subjects were included (mean age 51.4 ± 7.3 years; women, 37.9% for the SCORE/SCORE2 group and mean age 73.0 ± 2.8 years; women, 47.5% for the SCORE/SCORE2-OP group). Over a median follow-up of 9 years, cardiovascular events occurred in 15.0% and 28.9% in SCORE/SCORE2 and SCORE/SCORE2-OP groups, respectively. The SCORE/SCORE-OP model underestimated cardiovascular disease risk in young men (aged 40-49 years) and women (aged 40-59 years) and overestimated it in older age groups. In contrast, SCORE2/SCORE2-OP invariably overestimated the risk in all age groups and sexes. SCORE2/SCORE2-OP showed no improvement in Harrell's concordance index (C-index) compared with SCORE/SCORE-OP. Calibration plots favored SCORE2 over SCORE but not SCORE2-OP over SCORE-OP.

Conclusions

Both SCORE2/SCORE2-OP and SCORE/SCORE-OP overestimated cardiovascular disease risk with low performance. SCORE2/SCORE2-OP showed slight improvement over older versions, but modifications are necessary for the East Asian population.

Improving the predictive capability of Framingham Risk Score for the risk of myocardial infarction based on coronary artery calcium score in healthy Singaporeans

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease was the top cause of deaths and disability in Singapore in 2018, contributing extensively to the local healthcare burden. Primary prevention identifies at-risk individuals for the swift implementation of preventive measures. This has been traditionally done using the Singapore-adapted Framingham Risk Score (SG FRS). However, its most recent recalibration was more than a decade ago. Recent changes in patient demographics and risk factors have undermined the accuracy of SG FRS, and the rising popularity of wearable health metrics has led to new data types with the potential to improve risk prediction.

METHODS

In healthy Singaporeans enrolled in SingHEART study (absence of any clinical outcomes), we investigated improvements in SG FRS to predict myocardial infarction risk based on high/low classification of the Agatston score (surrogate outcome). Logistic regression, receiver operating characteristic and net reclassification index (NRI) analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

We demonstrated a significant improvement in the area under curve (AUC) of SG FRS (AUC = 0.641) after recalibration and incorporation of additional variables (fasting blood glucose and wearable-derived activity levels) (AUC = 0.774) ( P < 0.001). SG FRS++ significantly increases accuracy in risk prediction (NRI = 0.219, P = 0.00254).

CONCLUSION

Existing Singapore cardiovascular disease risk prediction guidelines should be updated to improve risk prediction accuracy. Recalibrating existing risk functions and utilising wearable metrics that provide a large pool of objective health data can improve existing risk prediction tools. Lastly, activity levels and prediabetic state are important factors for coronary heart disease risk stratification, especially in low-risk individuals.

Sex differences in the applicability of Western cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations in the Asian population

AIMS

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the most common cause of death, but they can be effectively managed through appropriate prevention and treatment. An important aspect in preventing CVDs is assessing each individual's comprehensive risk profile, for which various risk engines have been developed. The important keys to CVD risk engines are high reliability and accuracy, which show differences in predictability depending on disease status or race. Framingham risk score (FRS) and the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk equations (ASCVD) were applied to the Korean population to assess their suitability.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using National Health Insurance Corporation sample cohort from 2003 to 2015. The enrolled participants over 30 years of age and without CVD followed-up for 10 years. We compared the prediction performance of FRS and ASCVD and calculated the relative importance of each covariate.

RESULTS

The AUCs of FRS (men: 0.750; women: 0.748) were higher than those of ASCVD (men: 0.718; women: 0.727) for both sexes (Delong test P <0.01). Goodness of fits (GOF) were poor for all models (Chi-square P < 0.001), especially, underestimation of the risk was pronounced in women. When the men's coefficients were applied to women's data, AUC (0.748; Delong test P<0.01) and the GOF (chi-square P = 0.746) were notably improved in FRS. Hypertension was found to be the most influential variable for CVD, and this is one of the reasons why FRS, having the highest relative weight to blood pressure, showed better performance.

CONCLUSION

When applying existing tools to Korean women, there was a noticeable underestimation. To accurately predict the risk of CVD, it was more appropriate to use FRS with men's coefficient in women. Moreover, hypertension was found to be a main risk factor for CVD.

Development and Validation of a Bayesian Network-Based Model for Predicting Coronary Heart Disease Risk From Electronic Health Records

BACKGROUND

Traditional risk evaluation models have been applied to guide public health and clinical practice in various studies. However, the application of existing methods to data sets with missing and censored data, as is often the case in electronic health records, requires additional considerations. We aimed to develop and validate a predictive model that exhibits high performance with data sets that contain missing and censored data.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This is a retrospective cohort study of coronary heart disease at Weihai Municipal Hospital on unique patients aged 18 to 96 years between 2013 and 2021. A total of 169 692 participants formed our study population, of which 10 895 participants were diagnosed with coronary heart disease. Models were built for the risk of coronary heart disease based on demographic, laboratory, and medical history variables. All complete samples were assigned to the training set (n=110 325), whereas the remaining samples were assigned to the validation set (n=59 367). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value was 0.800 (95% CI, 0.794-0.805), and the C statistic was 0.796 (95% CI, 0.791-0.801) in the derivation cohort, and the corresponding values were 0.837 (95% CI, 0.821-0.853) and 0.838 (95% CI, 0.822-0.854) in the validation cohort. The calibration curve demonstrated its good calibration ability, and decision curve analysis showed its clinical usefulness.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed risk prediction model has demonstrated significant effectiveness in handling the complexities of electronic health record data, which often involve extensive missing data and censoring. This approach may offer potential assistance in the use of electronic health records to enhance patient outcomes.

Validation of the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score and Pooled Cohort Equations in a Community-Based Population: A Prospective Cohort Study Analysis 2006-2017

Background

The 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk - as assessed using the Framingham general cardiovascular risk score (FRS-CVD) or pooled cohort equations (PCE) - is commonly used in Western cohorts for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the FRS-CVD and PCE have not been validated in Taiwanese cohorts.

Objectives

We aimed to validate the FRS-CVD and PCE for assessing the 10-year ASCVD risk using a Taiwanese community-based population.

Methods

We extracted patient data from the Landseed Integrated Outreaching Neighborhood Screening registry, a community-based prospective cohort study established in 2006. Cardiovascular events from 2006 to 2017 were determined from electronic medical records. The discriminative power and calibration of the FRS-CVD and PCE were evaluated.

Results

Overall, 5,139 subjects were analyzed; the 10-year follow-up rate was 99.6%. The mean age at baseline was 52.8 ± 13.1 years, and 44.6% of the subjects were male. In total, 430 of 4,631 (9.3%) and 227 of 4,022 (5.6%) of the FRS-CVD- and PCE-like cohorts, respectively, had ASCVD events. The calibration χ2 of the FRS-CVD was 7.0267 (p = 0.6343) in males and 7.8845 (p = 0.5458) in females; the χ2 of PCE was 13.007 (p = 0.1623) in males and 38.785 (p < 0.001) in females. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the FRS-CVD was 0.76 (0.72-0.79) in males and 0.71 (0.67-0.74) in females; the AUROC of PCE was 0.68 (0.62-0.73) in males and 0.61 (0.56-0.67) in females.

Conclusions

Except for PCE in females, the FRS-CVD and PCE provided good calibration and modest discrimination in statin-naïve Taiwanese individuals without prior CVD.

Predicting risk on cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease based on a physical activity cohort: Results from APAC study

Commonly used prediction models have been primarily constructed without taking physical activity into account. Using the Kailuan physical activity cohorts from Asymptomatic Polyvascular Abnormalities in Community (APAC) study, we developed a 9-year cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction equation. Participants in this study were included from APAC cohort, which included 5440 participants from the Kailuan cohort in China. Cox proportional hazard regression model was applied to construct sex-specific risk prediction equations for the physical activity cohort (PA equation). Proposed equations were compared with the 10-year risk prediction model, which is developed for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in Chinese cohorts (China-PAR equation). C statistics of PA equations were 0.755 (95% confidence interval, 0.750-0.758) for men and 0.801 (95% confidence interval, 0.790-0.813) for women. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curves in the validation set shows that the PA equations perform as good as the China-PAR. From calibration among four categories of predicted risks, the predicted risk rates by PA equations were almost identical to the Kaplan-Meier observed rates. Therefore, our developed sex-specific PA equations have effective performance for predicting CVD for physically active cohorts in the physical activity cohort in Kailuan.

Evaluation of cardiovascular diseases risk calculators for CVDs prevention and management: scoping review

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. This review aimed to summarise evidence on the key features, usability and benefits of CVD risk calculators using digital platforms for CVDs prevention and management in populations.

METHODS

We used search engines and thematic analyses to conduct a scoping review. As the reporting guideline for this review, we used Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR).

RESULTS

A total of 17 studies meeting eligibility criteria were included in the analysis, from which about 70% of the studies have prognostic level I (n = 8) and level II (n = 4) evidence. The review found that various guidelines are recommending different algorithms for CVD risk prediction. The QRISK® was the most accurate CVD risk calculator for several study populations, whereas World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk scores were the least accurate. The key features of CVD risk calculators are variables, predictive accuracy, discrimination index, applicability, understandability, and cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSION

For the selected risk prediction tool, development and validation research must be done, which considers a mix of stroke-specific risk and CVD risk to establish its usability in the local community and advantages to the particular health-care environment. To get healthcare professionals more involved in preventing and treating CVDs, each healthcare setting should use an online CVD risk assessment tool that is more useful, accurate, and easy to use, based on the population and health system.

Cardiovascular disease risk prediction models in the Chinese population- a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

There is an increasing prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in China, which represents the leading cause of mortality. Precise CVD risk identification is the fundamental prevention component. This study sought to systematically review the CVD risk prediction models derived and/or validated in the Chinese population to promote primary CVD prevention.

Methods

Reports were included if they derived or validated one or more CVD risk prediction models in the Chinese population. PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, Scopus, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), VIP database, etc., were searched. The risk of bias was assessed with the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Meta-analysis was performed in R using the package metamisc.

Results

From 55,183 records, 22 studies were included. Twelve studies derived 18 CVD risk prediction models, of which seven models were derived based on a multicentre cohort including more than two provinces of mainland China, and one was a model developed based on a New Zealand cohort including Chinese individuals. The number of predictors ranged from 6 to 22. The definitions of predicted outcomes showed considerable heterogeneity. Fourteen articles described 29 validations of 8 models. The Framingham model and pooled cohort equations (PCEs) are the most frequently validated foreign tools. Discrimination was acceptable and similar for men and women among models (0.60–0.83). The calibration estimates changed substantially from one population to another. Prediction for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Risk in China (China-PAR) showed good calibration [observed/expected events ratio = 0.99, 95% PI (0.57,1.70)] and female sex [1.10, 95% PI (0.23,5.16)].

Conclusions

Several models have been developed or validated in the Chinese population. The usefulness of most of the models remains unclear due to incomplete external validation and head-to-head comparison. Future research should focus on externally validating or tailoring these models to local settings.

Trail registration

This systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews, CRD42021277453).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13995-z.

Prediction of Five-Year Cardiovascular Disease Risk in People with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Derivation in Nanjing, China and External Validation in Scotland, UK

Background

To use routinely collected data to develop a five-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction model for Chinese adults with type 2 diabetes with validation of its performance in a population of European ancestry.

Methods

People with incident type 2 diabetes and no history of CVD at diagnosis of diabetes between 2008 and 2017 were included in derivation and validation cohorts. The derivation cohort was identified from a pseudonymized research extract of data from the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (NMU). Five-year risk of CVD was estimated using basic and extended Cox proportional hazards regression models including 6 and 11 predictors respectively. The risk prediction models were internally validated and externally validated in a Scottish population-based cohort with CVD events identified from linked hospital records. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using Harrell's C-statistic and calibration plots, respectively.

Results

Mean age of the derivation and validation cohorts were 58.4 and 59.2 years, respectively, with 53.5% and 56.9% men. During a median follow-up time of 4.75 [2.67, 7.42] years, 18,827 (22.25%) of the 84,630 people in the NMU-Diabetes cohort and 8,763 (7.31%) of the Scottish cohort of 119,891 people developed CVD. The extended model had a C-statistic of 0.723 [0.721-0.724] in internal validation and 0.716 [0.713-0.719] in external validation.

Conclusions

It is possible to generate a risk prediction model with moderate discriminative power in internal and external validation derived from routinely collected Chinese hospital data. The proposed risk score could be used to improve CVD prevention in people with diabetes.

Contemporary Review of Risk Scores in Prediction of Coronary and Cardiovascular Deaths

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Explore the current literature supporting risk stratification scores for prediction of coronary and cardiovascular disease deaths.

RECENT FINDINGS

Accurate risk prediction remains the foundation of management choice in primary prevention. When applied to new populations, the calibration of a predictive model will deteriorate, although discrimination changes minimally. One of the approaches with better performance and validation is the initial use of pooled cohort equation to identify low and high-risk patients, followed by coronary artery calcium scoring in those with borderline to intermediate risk. It is important to utilize a risk stratification tool that has been validated in a patient population that resembles the one used to develop the original tool to maintain adequate calibration. It is likely that the future of mortality risk prediction will develop in combined clinical risk predictors and cardiovascular imaging, such coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring that renders the highest predictive accuracy.

Developing and Validating Risk Scores for Predicting Major Cardiovascular Events Using Population Surveys Linked with Electronic Health Insurance Records

A risk prediction model for major cardiovascular events was developed using population survey data linked to National Health Insurance (NHI) claim data and the death registry. Another set of population survey data were used to validate the model. The model was built using the Nutrition and Health Survey in Taiwan (NAHSIT) collected from 1993–1996 and linked with 10 years of events from NHI data. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) were identified based on hospital admission or death from coronary heart disease or stroke. The Taiwanese Survey on Hypertension, Hyperglycemia, and Hyperlipidemia (TwSHHH), conducted in 2002 was used for external validation. The NAHSIT data consisted of 1658 men and 1652 women aged 35–70 years. The incidence rates for MACE per 1000 person-years were 13.77 for men and 7.76 for women. These incidence rates for the TwSHHH were 7.27 for men and 3.58 for women. The model had reasonable discrimination (C-indexes: 0.76 for men; 0.75 for women), thus can be used to predict MACE risks in the general population. NHI data can be used to identify disease statuses if the definition and algorithm are clearly defined. Precise preventive health services in Taiwan can be based on this model.

Application of ensemble machine learning algorithms on lifestyle factors and wearables for cardiovascular risk prediction

This study looked at novel data sources for cardiovascular risk prediction including detailed lifestyle questionnaire and continuous blood pressure monitoring, using ensemble machine learning algorithms (MLAs). The reference conventional risk score compared against was the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). The outcome variables were low or high risk based on calcium score 0 or calcium score 100 and above. Ensemble MLAs were built based on naive bayes, random forest and support vector classifier for low risk and generalized linear regression, support vector regressor and stochastic gradient descent regressor for high risk categories. MLAs were trained on 600 Southeast Asians aged 21 to 69 years free of cardiovascular disease. All MLAs outperformed the FRS for low and high-risk categories. MLA based on lifestyle questionnaire only achieved AUC of 0.715 (95% CI 0.681, 0.750) and 0.710 (95% CI 0.653, 0.766) for low and high risk respectively. Combining all groups of risk factors (lifestyle survey questionnaires, clinical blood tests, 24-h ambulatory blood pressure and heart rate monitoring) along with feature selection, prediction of low and high CVD risk groups were further enhanced to 0.791 (95% CI 0.759, 0.822) and 0.790 (95% CI 0.745, 0.836). Besides conventional predictors, self-reported physical activity, average daily heart rate, awake blood pressure variability and percentage time in diastolic hypertension were important contributors to CVD risk classification.

Cardiovascular risk assessment tools in Asia

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is becoming the most important burden to health care systems in most part of the world, especially in Asia. Aiming at identifying high risk individuals and tailoring preventive treatment, many cardiovascular risk assessment tools have been established and most of them were developed in Western countries. However, these cardiovascular risk assessment tools cannot be used interchangeably without recalibration because of the different risk factor profiles (ie, greater absolute burden of hypertension and lower level of total‐cholesterol in Asians and higher prevalence of metabolic disorders in South Asians) and different CVD profiles (higher ratio of stroke/coronary heart disease in Asians) between Western and Asian populations. Original risk models such as Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China‐PAR) and Japan Arteriosclerosis Longitudinal Study (JALS) score have been developed and well validated for specific countries, while most of countries/regions in Asia are using established models. Due to higher incidence of stroke in Asians, risk factors like hypertension should weigh more in cardiovascular risk assessment comparing with Western populations, but their actual proportions should be based on CVD profiles in specific countries/regions. The authors encourage the development of new cardiovascular risk assessment tools for Asians, if possible. Still, modifying established models with native epidemiological data of risk factor as well as CVD is acceptable in regions where health care resources are insufficient.

A Simple Clinical Risk Score to Predict Post-Discharge Mortality in Chinese Patients Hospitalized with Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading causes of death in China. However, present efforts to identify the risk factors for death in patients hospitalized with heart failure (HF) are primarily focused on in-hospital mortality and 30-day mortality in the United States. Thus, a model similar to the model used for predicting the risk in patients considered for cardiovascular surgical procedures is needed to evaluate the risk of the patients admitted with a diagnosis of HF.

OBJECTIVE

To identify variables that can predict post-discharge one-year HF mortality and develop a risk score to assess the risk of dying within one year.

METHODS

In the present study, 1,742 Chinese patients with HF were randomly divided into two groups: a derivation sample group and a test sample group. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method was used to identify variables that can predict the one-year post-discharge mortality. Variables with a frequency of >1% in the bivariate analysis and that were considered clinically meaningful were eligible for further modeling analyses. The posterior probability that a variable was statistically and significantly associated with the outcome was calculated as the total number of times that the variable's 95% CI did not overlap with 1 (i.e., the reference point) divided by the total number of iterations. A variable with a probability of 0.9 or higher was considered a robust risk factor for predicting the outcome, and this was included in the final variable list. The level of statistical significance adopted was 5%.

RESULTS

Five variables that could robustly predict the one-year post-discharge mortality were identified: age, female gender, New York Heart Association functional classification score >3, left atrial diameter, and body mass index. Both derivation and test models had a receiver operating curve area of 0.79. These selected variables were used to assess the one-year HF mortality risk score, and these were divided into three groups (low, moderate, and high). The high-risk group corresponds to nearly 86% of the deaths, while the moderate group corresponds to 12% of the deaths.

CONCLUSION

A simple 5-variable risk score can be used to assess the one-year post-discharge mortality of hospitalized Chinese patients with HF.

Evaluation of a package of risk-based pharmaceutical and lifestyle interventions in patients with hypertension and/or diabetes in rural China: A pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires adequate control of hypertension and diabetes. We designed and implemented pharmaceutical and healthy lifestyle interventions for patients with diabetes and/or hypertension in rural primary care, and assessed their effectiveness at reducing severe CVD events.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used a pragmatic, parallel group, 2-arm, controlled, superiority, cluster trial design. We randomised 67 township hospitals in Zhejiang Province, China, to intervention (34) or control (33). A total of 31,326 participants were recruited, with 15,380 in the intervention arm and 15,946 in the control arm. Participants had no known CVD and were either patients with hypertension and a 10-year CVD risk of 20% or higher, or patients with type 2 diabetes regardless of their CVD risk. The intervention included prescription of a standardised package of medicines, individual advice on lifestyle change, and adherence support. Control was usual hypertension and diabetes care. In both arms, as usual in China, most outpatient drug costs were out of pocket. The primary outcome was severe CVD events, including coronary heart disease and stroke, during 36 months of follow-up, as recorded by the CVD surveillance system. The study was implemented between December 2013 and May 2017. A total of 13,385 (87%) and 14,745 (92%) participated in the intervention and control arms, respectively. Their mean age was 64 years, 51% were women, and 90% were farmers. Of all participants, 64% were diagnosed with hypertension with or without diabetes, and 36% were diagnosed with diabetes only. All township hospitals and participants completed the 36-month follow-up. At 36 months, there were 762 and 874 severe CVD events in the intervention and control arms, respectively, yielding a non-significant effect on CVD incidence rate (1.92 and 2.01 per 100 person-years, respectively; crude incidence rate ratio = 0.90 [95% CI: 0.74, 1.08; P = 0.259]). We observed significant, but small, differences in the change from baseline to follow-up for systolic blood pressure (-1.44 mm Hg [95% CI: -2.26, -0.62; P < 0.001]) and diastolic blood pressure (-1.29 mm Hg [95% CI: -1.77, -0.80; P < 0.001]) in the intervention arm compared to the control arm. Self-reported adherence to recommended medicines was significantly higher in the intervention arm compared with the control arm at 36 months. No safety concerns were identified. Main study limitations include all participants being informed about their high CVD risk at baseline, non-blinding of participants, and the relatively short follow-up period available for judging potential changes in rates of CVD events.

CONCLUSIONS

The comprehensive package of pharmaceutical and healthy lifestyle interventions did not reduce severe CVD events over 36 months. Improving health system factors such as universal coverage for the cost of essential medicines is required for successful risk-based CVD prevention programmes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN registry ISRCTN58988083.

Place of cardiovascular risk prediction models in South Asians; agreement between Framingham risk score and WHO/ISH risk charts

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

There are no cardiovascular risk prediction models developed in South Asian cohorts. Therefore, different risk models not validated in South Asians are being used. We aimed to compare cardiovascular risk predictions of Framingham risk score (FRS) and World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts for agreement in a sample of South Asians.

METHODS

Ten-year cardiovascular risk predictions of patients without previous cardiovascular diseases attending a non-communicable disease clinic were calculated using FRS (with BMI and with cholesterol) and WHO/ISH charts (with and without cholesterol). Patients were categorised into low (<20%) and high (≥20%) cardiovascular risk groups on risk predictions. Agreement in risk categorisation with different prediction models was compared using Cohen's kappa coefficient (κ).

RESULTS

One hundred sixty-nine patients (females 130 (81.1%)) mean age 65 ± 6.9 years were studied. Of the participants, 80 (47.3%), 62 (36.7%), 18 (10.7%), 16 (9.5%), were predicted high risk by FRS BMI-based, FRS cholesterol-based, WHO/ISH without-cholesterol and WHO/ISH with-cholesterol models, respectively. Agreement between the two FRS models (κ = 0.736, P < .0001) and the two WHO/ISH models (κ = 0.804, P < .0001) in stratifying patients into high and low-risk groups, was "good." However, the agreements between FRS BMI-based and WHO/ISH without-cholesterol models (κ = 0.234, P < .0001) and FRS cholesterol-based and WHO/ISH with-cholesterol models (κ = 0.306, P < .0001) were only "fair."

CONCLUSION

Cardiovascular risk predictions of FRS were higher than WHO/ISH charts and the agreement in risk stratification was not satisfactory in Sri Lankans. Therefore, different cardiovascular risk prediction models should not be used interchangeably in the follow-up of South Asians.

Cardiovascular event risk estimation among residents of a rural setting in Bayelsa state, Nigeria

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a leading cause of death worldwide. There is a rising prevalence of CVDs in Nigeria, including in rural communities. The present study assessed the total CVD risk among two rural communities in Bayelsa State, South-south Nigeria. Adults aged ≥ 40 years in 264 randomly selected households in two rural communities in Bayelsa State were interviewed in this descriptive cross-sectional survey. Using a structured questionnaire, data on socio-demographic characteristics, anthropometry, blood pressure (BP) and random blood sugar measurements were obtained. The WHO/ISH risk assessment chart for the African sub-region was used to estimate the 10-year total risk of fatal or non-fatal CVD events using five predictor variables: age, gender, smoking, systolic BP, and coexistence of diabetes mellitus (DM). Of the 264 participants, majority was men (70.1%) and married (93.2%). Mean age was 50.9±8.1 years. Most participants were overweight (53.4%), add salt to food on table (97.0%), lead a sedentary lifestyle (79.2%) and greater than a third of participants (36.7%) were known hypertensive patients. Using the WHO/ISH risk prediction chart for Africa, 90.0% and 10.0% of the study population had low and moderate risk, respectively of developing cardiovascular events in 10 years. As the age of participants increases, the 10-year risk of a cardiovascular event increased (X 2-48.9; P-0.001). History of hypertension (X 2-20.0; P-0.001), DM (X 2-5.87; P-0.016) and smoking (X 2-23.42; P-0.001) were significantly related to the level of 10-year cardiovascular event risk. Sex showed no significant relationship. There is a high prevalence of several cardiovascular risk factors in this rural population, though the 10-year risk of CV event is still low. CVD risk in rural communities requires awareness, monitoring and an integrated approach in their prevention, detection, and treatment.

Validation of the World Health Organization/ International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) cardiovascular risk predictions in Sri Lankans based on findings from a prospective cohort study

Introduction and objectives

There are no cardiovascular (CV) risk prediction models for Sri Lankans. Different risk prediction models not validated for Sri Lankans are being used to predict CV risk of Sri Lankans. We validated the WHO/ISH (SEAR-B) risk prediction charts prospectively in a population-based cohort of Sri Lankans.

Method

We selected 40–64 year-old participants from the Ragama Medical Officer of Health (MOH) area in 2007 by stratified random sampling and followed them up for 10 years. Ten-year risk predictions of a fatal/non-fatal cardiovascular event (CVE) in 2007 were calculated using WHO/ISH (SEAR-B) charts with and without cholesterol. The CVEs that occurred from 2007–2017 were ascertained. Risk predictions in 2007 were validated against observed CVEs in 2017.

Results

Of 2517 participants, the mean age was 53.7 year (SD: 6.7) and 1132 (45%) were males. Using WHO/ISH chart with cholesterol, the percentages of subjects with a 10-year CV risk <10%, 10–19%, 20%-29%, 30–39%, ≥40% were 80.7%, 9.9%, 3.8%, 2.5% and 3.1%, respectively. 142 non-fatal and 73 fatal CVEs were observed during follow-up. Among the cohort, 9.4% were predicted of having a CV risk ≥20% and 8.6% CVEs were observed in the risk category. CVEs were within the predictions of WHO/ISH charts with and without cholesterol in both high (≥20%) and low(<20%) risk males, but only in low(<20%) risk females. The predictions of WHO/ISH charts, with-and without-cholesterol were in agreement in 81% of subjects (ĸ = 0.429; p<0.001).

Conclusions

WHO/ISH (SEAR B) risk prediction charts with-and without-cholesterol may be used in Sri Lanka. Risk charts are more predictive in males than in females and for lower-risk categories. The predictions when stratifying into 2 categories, low risk (<20%) and high risk (≥20%), are more appropriate in clinical practice.

Cardiovascular diseases risk prediction in patients with diabetes: Posthoc analysis from a matched case-control study in Bangladesh

Purpose

This study aimed to investigate the estimated 10-year predicted risk of developing cardiovascular diseases (CVD) among participants with and without diabetes in Bangladesh.

Methods

We performed posthoc analysis from a matched case-control study conducted among 1262 participants. A total of 631 participants with diabetes (case) were recruited from a tertiary hospital, and 631 age, sex and residence matched participants (control) were recruited from the community in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Socioeconomic anthropometric, clinical and CVD risk factor data were collected from the participants. The 10-year estimated CVD risk was calculated using the Framingham Risk Score, which has reasonable validity in South Asians.

Results

The mean (SD) age of the participants were 51 (10) years. Total 52.3% of cases and 17.2% of controls were at high risk for CVD. The 10-year risk of CVD increased by age and was higher among males in both groups. Among the control group, high CVD risk was more prevalent among higher education and income groups. More than 85% of the tobacco smokers and 70% of chewing tobacco users in the case group were at high risk of CVD. Prevalence of high CVD risk among non-smokers cases was 8.6%. About 35% of hypertensive participants in the control group were at high risk of CVD.

Conclusion

Bangladeshi patients with diabetes showed a significant burden of CVD risk at a relatively younger age. Strategies for reducing tobacco use and improving BP control in people with diabetes is needed for lowering future CVD risks.

Cardiovascular Risk Calculators and their Applicability to South Asians

BACKGROUND

Estimation of absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and tailoring therapies according to the estimated risk is a fundamental concept in the primary prevention of CVD is assessed in this study. Numerous CVD risk scores are currently available for use in various populations but unfortunately, none exist for South Asians who have much higher CVD risk as compared to their western counterparts.

METHODS

A literature search was done using PubMed and Google search engines to prepare a narrative review on this topic.

RESULTS

Various currently available CVD risk scores and their pros and cons are summarized. The studies performed in native as well as migrant South Asians evaluating the accuracy of these risk scores for estimation of CVD risk are also summarized. The findings of these studies have generally been inconsistent, but it appears that the British risk scores (e.g. QRISK versions) may be more accurate because of inclusion of migrant South Asians in the derivation of these risk scores. However, the lack of any prospective study precludes our ability to draw any firm conclusions. Finally, the potential solution to these challenges, including the role of recalibration and subclinical atherosclerosis imaging, is also discussed.

CONCLUSION

This review highlights the need to develop large, representative, prospectively followed databases of South Asians providing information on various CVD risk factors and their contribution to incident CVD. Such databases will not only allow the development of validated CVD risk scores for South Asians but will also enable application of machine-learning approaches to provide personalized solutions to CVD risk assessment and management in these populations.

Genetic and Non-genetic Determinants of Cardiovascular Disease in South Asians

South Asians (SAs), people from the Indian subcontinent (e.g., India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal) have a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and suffer from a greater risk of CVD-associated mortality compared to other global populations. These problems are compounded by the alterations in lifestyles due to urbanization and changing cultural, social, economic, and political environments. Current methods of CV risk prediction are based on white populations that under-estimate the CVD risk in SAs. Prospective studies are required to obtain actual CVD morbidity/mortality rates so that comparisons between predicted CVD risk can be made with actual events. Overwhelming data support a strong influence of genetic factors. Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) serve as a starting point for future genetic and functional studies since the mechanisms of action by which these associated loci influence CVD is still unclear. It is difficult to predict the potential implication of these findings in clinical settings. This review provides a systematic assessment of the risk factors, genetics, and environmental causes of CV health disparity in SAs, and highlights progress made in clinical and genomics discoveries in the rapidly evolving field, which has the potential to show clinical relevance in the near future.

Conquering hypertension in Vietnam-solutions at grassroots level: study protocol of a cluster randomized controlled trial

Background

Vietnam has been experiencing an epidemiologic transition to that of a lower-middle income country with an increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases. The key risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) are either on the rise or at alarming levels in Vietnam, particularly hypertension (HTN). Inasmuch, the burden of CVD will continue to increase in the Vietnamese population unless effective prevention and control measures are put in place. The objectives of the proposed project are to evaluate the implementation and effectiveness of two multi-faceted community and clinic-based strategies on the control of elevated blood pressure (BP) among adults in Vietnam via a cluster randomized trial design.

Methods

Sixteen communities will be randomized to either an intervention (8 communities) or a comparison group (8 communities). Eligible and consenting adult study participants with HTN (n = 680) will be assigned to intervention/comparison status based on the community in which they reside. Both comparison and intervention groups will receive a multi-level intervention modeled after the Vietnam National Hypertension Program including education and practice change modules for health care providers, accessible reading materials for patients, and a multi-media community awareness program.

In addition, the intervention group only will receive three carefully selected enhancements integrated into routine clinical care: (1) expanded community health worker services, (2) home BP self-monitoring, and (3) a “storytelling intervention,” which consists of interactive, literacy-appropriate, and culturally sensitive multi-media storytelling modules for motivating behavior change through the power of patients speaking in their own voices. The storytelling intervention will be delivered by DVDs with serial installments at baseline and at 3, 6, and 9 months after trial enrollment. Changes in BP will be assessed in both groups at several follow-up time points. Implementation outcomes will be assessed as well.

Discussion

Results from this full-scale trial will provide health policymakers with practical evidence on how to combat a key risk factor for CVD using a feasible, sustainable, and cost-effective intervention that could be used as a national program for controlling HTN in Vietnam.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03590691. Registered on July 17, 2018. Protocol version: 6. Date: August 15, 2019.

Estimation of the cardiovascular risk using world health organization/international society of hypertension risk prediction charts in Central Vietnam

Introduction

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) being the leading cause of the morbidity and mortality in Vietnam, the objective of this study was to estimate the total 10-year CVD risk among adults aged 40–69 years by utilizing World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts in Central Vietnam.

Materials and methods

In this cross-sectional study, multi-staged sampling was used to select 938 participants from a general population aged from 40 to 69. The CVD risk factors were then collected throughout the interviews with a standardized questionnaire, anthropometric measurements and a blood test. The cardiovascular risk was calculated using the WHO/ISH risk prediction charts.

Results

According to the WHO/ISH charts, the proportion of moderate risk (10–20%) and high risk (>20%) among the surveyed participants were equal (5.1%). When “blood pressure of more than 160/100 mmHg” was applied, the proportion of moderate risk reduced to 2.3% while the high risk increased markedly to 12.8%. Those proportions were higher in men than in women (at 18.3% and 8.5% respectively, p-value <0.001, among the high-risk group), increasing with age. Male gender, smoking, ethnic minorities, hypertension and diabetes were associated with increased CVD risk.

Conclusions

There was a high burden of CVD risk in Central Vietnam as assessed with the WHO/ISH risk prediction charts, especially in men and among the ethnic minorities. The use of WHO/ISH charts provided a feasible and affordable screening tool in estimating the cardiovascular risk in primary care settings.

Genetic Risk Score for Coronary Heart Disease: Review

The present review deals with the stages of creation, methods of calculation, and the use of a genetic risk score for coronary heart disease in various populations. The concept of risk factors is generally recognized on the basis of the results of epidemiological studies in the 20th century; according to this concept, the high prevalence of diseases of the circulatory system is due to lifestyle characteristics and associated risk factors. An important and relevant task for the healthcare system is to identify the population segments most susceptible to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). The level of individual risk of an unfavorable cardiovascular prognosis is determined by genetic factors in addition to lifestyle factors.

Performance of the Framingham coronary heart disease risk score for predicting 10-year cardiac risk in adult United Arab Emirates nationals without diabetes: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Primary prevention guidelines recommend the use of the Framingham risk score (FRS) to estimate the 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in patients without diabetes for statin eligibility. However, the FRS model has never been validated in an Arab population. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the clinical performance of the FRS model for predicting 10-year CHD risk in adult United Arab Emirates (UAE) nationals without diabetes.

METHODS

This 10-year retrospective cohort study included patients from the primary care clinics and outpatient specialty departments of a large tertiary care hospital in Al-Ain, UAE. They were aged 30-79 without a baseline history of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. The FRS for each subject was calculated. Follow-up data on hard CHD (hCHD) events (myocardial infarction or coronary death) for each participant were collected from the baseline visit in 2008 until December 31, 2019. The area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUROC) was used to assess the FRS model discrimination. Calibration was measured by using the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² test and the calibration curve. The optimal cutoff-point for hCHD risk prediction was determined by ROC curve analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 554 participants were included. The mean age was 48.0 ± 12.8 years and 45% were men. The mean predicted FRS of the study cohort was 5.2% and approximately 7% were classified as high-risk (≥ 20% threshold) by the FRS model. During a median follow-up of 10.2 years (interquartile range, 7.8-11.0 years), 26 hCHD events occurred. The FRS model displayed reasonably good discrimination (time-dependent AUROC value: 0.83) and calibration in predicting hCHD (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² statistic 11.2, P = 0.191). Applying the 20% high-risk threshold, the FRS model had a sensitivity of only 37% in identifying patients at high-risk for an hCHD event over 10 years. While a 7.5% optimal cutoff-point improved the sensitivity to 74%.

CONCLUSIONS

The FRS can be used in the prediction of coronary risk among UAE nationals without diabetes, however, the recommended hCHD risk threshold for statin eligibility may be too high. Lowering the cutoff-point to 7.5% could improve the identification of patients for preventive treatment.

Association of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment with Early Colorectal Neoplasia Detection in Asymptomatic Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Previous studies have shown a strong coexistence of colorectal neoplasia (CRN) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). This study was aimed to summarize the available evidence on association of CVD risk with early CRN detection in asymptomatic populations. PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase were systematically searched for eligible studies published until Dec 20, 2019. Studies exploring the associations of recommended CVD risk assessment methods (e.g., risk scores, carotid artery plaque, and coronary artery calcium score [CACS]) with risk of CRN were included. Meta-analyses were conducted to determine the overall association of CVD risk with the CRN. A total of 12 studies were finally included. The association of carotid artery plaque with the risk of colorectal adenoma (AD) was weakest (pooled odds ratio [OR)] 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI), 1.12, 1.45]. Participants with CACS>100 had about 2-fold increased risk of AD than those with CACS=0. The pooled ORs were 3.36 (95% CI, 2.15, 5.27) and 2.30 (95% CI, 1.69, 3.13) for the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia (AN) and AD, respectively, in participants with Framingham risk score (FRS)>20%, when compared to participants at low risk (FRS<10%). FRS might help identify subgroups at increased risk for AN, but further studies are needed.

An independent validation of the kidney failure risk equation in an Asian population

Predicting the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) progression facilitates appropriate nephrology care of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Previously, the kidney failure risk equations (KFREs) were developed and validated in several cohorts. The purpose of this study is to validate the KFREs in a Korean population and to recalibrate the equations. A total of 38,905 adult patients, including 13,244 patients with CKD stages G3–G5, who were referred to nephrology were recruited. Using the original KFREs (4-, 6- and 8-variable equations) and recalibration equations, we predicted the risk of 2- and 5-year ESRD progression. All analyses were conducted in CKD stages G3-G5 patients as well as the total population. In CKD stages G3–G5 patients, All the original 4-, 6- and 8-variable equations showed excellent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 and 0.83 for the 2- and 5-year risk of ESRD, respectively. The results of net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination index and Brier score showed that recalibration improved the prediction models in some cases. The original KFREs showed high discrimination in both CKD stages G3–G5 patients and the total population referred to nephrology in this large Korean cohort. KFREs can be implemented in Korean health systems and can guide nephrology referrals and other CKD-related treatment decisions.

Cardiovascular risk and undertreatment of dyslipidemia in lung cancer survivors: A nationwide population-based study

BACKGROUND

In lung cancer survivors, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of noncancer deaths. Nonetheless, there is lack of information on management of dyslipidemia, a major risk factor for future CVD events, in lung cancer survivors. This study aimed to assess dyslipidemia management and prevalence of statin eligibility in lung cancer survivors.

METHODS

From the Korean National Health Insurance Service database, we selected 7349 lung cancer survivors who received surgery for lung cancer from 2007 to 2014. We used descriptive statistics for analyses of dyslipidemia management status on the basis of the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines. We also identified those who met the criteria for treatment on the basis of CVD risk according to the 2018 American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines.

RESULTS

The overall awareness and treatment rates for lung cancer survivors with dyslipidemia were 31.8% and 29.7%, respectively. The overall control rate for those receiving treatment was 88.7%, but was lowest in the highest risk group (78.1%). Furthermore, undertreatment of dyslipidemia was more prominent in young, male lung cancer survivors and those diagnosed with lung cancer within 3 years. Among those not receiving treatment for dyslipidemia, 61.7% were indicated for statin according to the ACC/AHA guidelines.

CONCLUSION

Over half of lung cancer survivors were not receiving treatment, although they were eligible for statin under current guidelines. To reduce noncancer mortality, statin use and adequate management of CVD risk factors should be encouraged in lung cancer survivors.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and cardiovascular disease phenotypes

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is increasingly recognized as a major global health problem. Intertwined with diabetes, metabolic syndrome, and obesity, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease embraces a spectrum of liver conditions spanning from steatosis to inflammation, fibrosis, and liver failure. Compared with the general population, the prevalence of cardiovascular disease is higher among nonalcoholic fatty liver disease patients, in whom comprehensive cardiovascular risk assessment is highly desirable. Preclinical effects of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease on the heart include both metabolic and structural changes eventually preceding overt myocardial dysfunction. Particularly, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is associated with enhanced atherosclerosis, heart muscle disease, valvular heart disease, and arrhythmias, with endothelial dysfunction, inflammation, metabolic dysregulation, and oxidative stress playing in the background. In this topical review, we aimed to summarize current evidence on the epidemiology of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, discuss the pathophysiological links between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and cardiovascular disease, illustrate nonalcoholic fatty liver disease-related cardiovascular phenotypes, and finally provide a glimpse on the relationship between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and cardiac steatosis, mitochondrial (dys)function, and cardiovascular autonomic dysfunction.

Effect of metformin on cardiovascular risk factors in middle-aged Thai women with metabolic syndrome: A randomized placebo-controlled trial

AIM

To evaluate the effect of metformin on cardiovascular risk factors in middle-aged Thai women with metabolic syndrome that are in menopausal transition.

METHODS

This study was double-blind randomized placebo-controlled trial. Metabolic syndrome was diagnosed using American Heart Association and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute criteria. After taking metformin 1700 mg/day for 6 months, cardiovascular risk factors were evaluated at baseline and month-6; the values of which were used to calculate delta (Δ, month-6 minus baseline values).

RESULTS

Forty menopausal participants were equally, randomized into either the placebo or metformin group. The two groups had comparable metabolic parameters at baseline, except that the mean triglyceride level was higher in the metformin group than in the placebo group. The significant improvements found only in the metformin group were body mass index, fasting blood glucose, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (Framingham heart study) (P = 0.0004, P = 0.049, P = 0.035 and P = 0.029); whereas that only in the placebo group was high density lipoprotein cholesterol. However, there was no statistically significant difference in the improvement between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

Metformin can improve some parameters of metabolic syndrome in middle-aged Thai women. Metformin is not superior to placebo for the improvement of cardiovascular risk factors.

Status of dyslipidemia management and statin undertreatment in Korean cancer survivors: A Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey study

AIMS

Due to improving cancer treatment results, non-cancer mortality is an important issue for cancer survivors. Cardiovascular diseases are the leading causes of death in Korea and globally. In addition to lowering the risk of cardiovascular disease, the use of statins has led to an overall reduction in cancer mortality in recent observational studies. We investigated the status of current dyslipidemia management in cancer survivors with reference to 2018 guidelines.

METHODS

The study is a cross-sectional analysis of 1460 cancer survivors aged from 40 to 75 years who participated in the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2007 to 2016. Dyslipidemia management status among cancer survivors was assessed according to 2018 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines and Korean Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score guidelines.

RESULTS

The rate of treatment for dyslipidemia was 8.5% for males, 13.8% for females, and 11.9% overall. Among cancer survivors who were not receiving treatment for dyslipidemia, 59.6% of males, 34.2% of females and 43.9% of total cancer survivors would have been eligible for statin therapy under the 2018 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines and Korean Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score guidelines. The rate of undertreatment of dyslipidemia increased with age and length of time since cancer diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Nearly 50% of cancer survivors remain untreated although they are eligible for statin therapy. This emphasizes the need for more attention to prevent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease among cancer survivors.

Agreement between Framingham, IraPEN and non-laboratory WHO-EMR risk score calculators for cardiovascular risk prediction in a large Iranian population

Introduction: Estimation of the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), may lead to prophylactic therapies. This study aims to compare and evaluate the agreement between CVD prediction of Iran Package of Essential Non-communicable Disease (IraPEN) and Framingham risk score (FRS).

Methods: All 40-79 years old participants in the Yazd Health Study who did not have a history of CVD were included. The 10-years risk of CVD was estimated by the laboratory (IraPEN), non-laboratory WHO-EMR B and FRS. The risk was classified into low, moderate and high-risk groups. Cohen’s weighted kappa statistics were used to assess agreement between tools. To assess discrepancies McNemar’s χ2 test for paired data was used. P values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

Results: In total, 2103 participant was included and the risk scores were calculated. Of them, 26.5% were stratified as high risk by FRS, compared with 6.1% by IraPEN. A slight agreement (37.9%) was observed (kappa 0.17, P < 0.0001), in other words. This discrepancy between IraPEN vs. FRS was seen in both sexes (P < 0.0001), although in women the agreement ratio was higher (52.1% vs. 21.3%). The discrepancy between FRS and IraPEN in categorizing people at risk of CVD was 55.5%, (P < 0.0001) but this was not significant between IraPEN and non-laboratory WHO-EMR-B (World Health Organization - Eastern Mediterranean Regional-B group countries) score (P < 0.523; discrepancies, 5.8%).

Conclusion: Our study shows a slight agreement between various CVD risk scores. Thus, reviewing the IraPEN and using alternative tools for the low-risk group should be considered by decision-makers. It is important to use a more reliable score for nation-wide risk assessment.

Current State of Cardiovascular Research in Korea

Cardiovascular diseases have shown a continuous increase in Korea over the past decade and became the second most common cause of mortality in Korea. Although the number and the amount of total grants for cardiovascular research have increased in Korea, the proportion of the number of grants and total amount allocated for the cardiac/cardiovascular field to all health and medical research fields has not changed much over this period. In addition, the publications related to clinical research have substantially increased in Korea along with the number of nation-wide registries for cardiovascular diseases, but basic and translational research did not show significant growth, requiring new measures to promote basic and translational cardiovascular research in Korea.

A Prediction Model with Lifestyle in Addition to Previously Known Risk Factors Improves Its Predictive Ability for Cardiovascular Death

This longitudinal cohort study aimed to create a novel prediction model for cardiovascular death with lifestyle factors. Subjects aged 40–74 years in the Japanese nationwide Specific Health Checkup Database in 2008 were included. Subjects were randomly assigned to the derivation and validation cohorts by a 2:1 ratio. Points for the prediction model were determined using regression coefficients that were derived from the Cox proportional hazards model in the derivation cohort. Models 1 and 2 were developed using known risk factors and known factors with lifestyle factors, respectively. The models were validated by comparing Kaplan-Meier curves between the derivation and validation cohorts, and by calibration plots in the validation cohort. Among 295,297 subjects, data for 120,823 were available. There were 310 cardiovascular deaths during a mean follow-up of 3.6 years. Model 1 included known risk factors. In model 2, weight gain, exercise habit, gait speed, and drinking alcohol were additionally included as protective factors. Kaplan-Meier curves matched better between the derivation and validation cohorts in model 2, and model 2 was better calibrated. In conclusion, our prediction model with lifestyle factors improved the predictive ability for cardiovascular death.

The Potential Role of Biomarkers Associated with ASCVD Risk: Risk-Enhancing Biomarkers

Serum cholesterol is major risk factor and contributor to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Therapeutic cholesterol-lowering drugs, especially statin, revealed that reduction in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) produces marked reduction of ASCVD events. In the preventive scope, lower LDL-C is generally accepted as better in proven ASCVD patients and high-risk patient groups. However, in patients with low to intermediate risk without ASCVD, risk assessment is clinically guided by traditional major risk factors. In this group, the complement approach to detailed risk assessment about traditional major risk factors is needed. These non-traditional risk factors include ankle-brachial index (ABI), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) level, lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]), apolipoprotein B (apoB), or coronary artery calcium (CAC) score. CAC measurements have an additive role in the decision to use statin therapy in non-diabetic patients 40–75 years old with intermediate risk in primary prevention. This review comprises ASCVD lipid/biomarkers other than CAC. The 2013 and 2018 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines suggest these factors as risk-enhancing factors to help health care providers better determine individualized risk and treatment options especially regarding abnormal biomarkers. The recent 2018 Korean guidelines for management of dyslipidemia did not include these biomarkers in clinical decision making. The current review describes the current roles of hsCRP, ABI, LP(a), and apoB in personal modulation and management of health based on the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline on the management of blood cholesterol.

Associations Among Health Insurance Type, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, and the Risk of Dementia: A Prospective Cohort Study in Korea

Due to an aging population, dementia incidence has rapidly increased in South Korea, heaping psychological and economic burdens upon families and the society. This study was aimed at investigating the associations of health insurance type and cardiovascular risk factors with the risk of dementia. The study was performed using data from 15,043 participants aged 60 years and above, enrolled in the Seoul Dementia Management Project in 2008 and followed up until 2012. Factors such as demographic data, health insurance type, lifestyle factors, and cardiovascular risk factors were subjected to Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to identify their associations with dementia incidence. During the follow-up, 495 participants (3.3%) developed dementia. Medical Aid beneficiaries were associated with an increase in the risk of dementia (hazard ratio [HR] 1.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.421–2.215). Upon analyzing a composite cardiovascular risk score derived from all five cardiovascular risk factors, the risk for dementia incidence in participants increased from 1.56 for the presence of three risk factors to 2.55 for that of four risk factors (HR 2.55, 95% CI 1.174–5.546), compared with those who had no risk factors. The Medical Aid beneficiaries of health insurance type and the presence of multiple cardiovascular risk factors were found to be associated with a higher risk of dementia incidence.

Performance of atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk prediction models in a rural Northern Chinese population: Results from the Fangshan Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Performance of Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risks varied across populations. Whether the recently developed Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) model could accurately predict cardiovascular risks in real practice remains unclear.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study in rural Beijing in the "stroke belt" in North China was used to externally validate PCE and China-PAR models for 5-year ASCVD risk prediction. Expected 5-year prediction risk using China-PAR model was compared with PCE (white). The models were assessed for calibration, discrimination, and reclassification.

RESULTS

Among 11,169 adults aged 40 to 79 years over a median 6.44 years of follow-up, 1,921 participants developed a first ASCVD event during total 70,951 person-years. China-PAR model fairly predicted ASCVD risk in men but overestimated by 29.4% risk in women (calibration χ² = 81.4, P < .001). Underestimations were shown by PCE as 76.2% in men and 88.2% in women with poor calibration (both P < .001). However, discrimination was similar in both models: C-statistics in men were 0.685 (95% CI 0.660-0.710) for China-PAR and 0.675 (95% CI 0.649-0.701) for PCE; C-statistics in women were 0.711 (95% CI 0.694-0.728) for China-PAR and 0.714 (95% CI 0.697-0.731) for PCE. Moreover, China-PAR did not substantially improve accuracy of reclassification compared with PCE.

CONCLUSIONS

China-PAR outperformed PCE in 5-year ASCVD risk prediction in this rural Northern Chinese population at average population risk level, fairly predicted risk in men, but overestimated risk in women; however, China-PAR did not meaningfully improve the accuracy of discrimination and reclassification at individual risk level.

Validity of the Seattle Heart Failure Model after heart failure hospitalization

AIMS

Heart failure hospitalization is a sentinel event associated with increased mortality risk. Whether long-term heart failure risk models such as the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) accurately assess risk in the post-hospital setting is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The SHFM was applied to a cohort of 2242 consecutive patients (50% women; mean age 73) on discharge after acute heart failure hospitalization and analysed for the primary endpoint of all-cause mortality. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed. Direct patient-level comparison between our study cohort and the original SHFM cohorts was also performed to confirm and quantify the degree and extent of increased mortality risk attributable to post-hospital status. The SHFM demonstrated good overall risk discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.704) and was well calibrated in patients <65 years old. The SHFM significantly underestimated mortality risk in patients ≥65 years old post-hospitalization. Direct patient-level comparison revealed a stepwise increase in adjusted mortality risk attributable to post-hospital status for each advancing age group ≥65 years old. This heightened mortality risk showed a diminishing trend over 18 months after discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

The SHFM accurately predicts mortality risk in younger patients after acute heart failure hospitalization. However, patients ≥65 years old had increased adjusted mortality risk for up to 18 months after discharge compared with ambulatory heart failure patients, a pattern consistent with the well-described post-hospital syndrome.

Long-term incidence and risk factors of cardiovascular events in Asian populations: systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Scientific studies on cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden and risk factors are predominantly based on short-term risk in Westerner populations, and such information may not be applicable to Asian populations, especially over the longer term. This review aims to estimate the long-term (>10 years) CVD burden, including coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, as well as associated risk factors in Asian populations.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase and Web of Science were systematically searched, and hits screened on: Asian adults, free of CVD at baseline; cohort study design (follow-up >10 years). Primary outcomes were fatal and non-fatal CVD events. Pooled estimates and between-study heterogeneity were calculated using random effects models, Q and I² statistics.

RESULTS

Overall, 32 studies were eligible for inclusion (follow-up: 11-29 years). The average long-term rate of fatal CVD is 3.68 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 2.84-4.53), the long-term cumulative risk 6.35% (95% CI 4.69%-8.01%, mean 20.13 years) and the cumulative fatal stroke/CHD risk ratio 1.5:1. Important risk factors for long-term fatal CVD (RR, 95% CI) were male gender (1.49, 1.36-1.64), age over 60/65 years (7.55, 5.59-10.19) and current smoking (1.68, 1.26-2.24). High non-HDL-c, and β- and γ-tocopherol serum were associated only with CHD (HR 2.46 [95% CI 1.29-4.71] and 2.47 [1.10-5.61] respectively), while stage 1 and 2 hypertensions were associated only with fatal stroke (2.02 [1.19-3.44] and 2.89 [1.68-4.96] respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Over a 10 year + follow-up period Asian subjects had a higher risk of stroke than CHD. Contrary to CVD prevention in Western countries, strategies should also consider stroke instead of CHD only.

Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio and Cardiovascular Disease Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review aimed to measure the association between neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

METHODS

Relevant studies were identified from Medline and Scopus databases. Observational studies with NLR as a study factor were eligible for review. The outcomes of interest were any type of CVD including acute coronary syndrome, coronary artery disease, stroke, or a composite of these cardiovascular events. Mean differences in NLR between CVD and non-CVD patients were pooled using unstandardized mean difference (USMD). Odds ratios of CVD between high and low NLR groups were pooled using a random effects model.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight studies (n=76,002) were included. High NLR was significantly associated with the risks of CAD, ACS, stroke, and composite cardiovascular events with pooled ORs of 1.62 (95% CI: 1.38-1.91), 1.64 (95% CI: 1.30, 2.05), 2.36 (95% CI: 1.44, 2.89), and 3.86 (95% CI: 1.73, 8.64), respectively. In addition, mean NLRs in CAD, ACS, and stroke patients were significantly higher than in control groups.

CONCLUSION

High NLR was associated with CAD, ACS, stroke, and composite cardiovascular events. Therefore, NLR may be a useful CVD biomarker.

Expert opinion on the applicability of dyslipidemia guidelines in Asia and the Middle East

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a growing burden across the world. In Asia and the Middle East, in particular, CVD is among the most prevalent and debilitating diseases. Dyslipidemia is an important factor in the development of atherosclerosis and associated cardiovascular events, and so effective management strategies are critical to reducing overall cardiovascular risk. Multiple dyslipidemia guidelines have been developed by international bodies such as the European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association, which all have similarities in practice recommendations for the optimal management of dyslipidemia. However, they differ in certain aspects including pharmacological treatment, lifestyle modification and the target levels used for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The evidence behind these guidelines is generally based on data from Western populations, and their applicability to people in Asia and the Middle East is largely untested. As a result, practitioners within Asia and the Middle East continue to rely on international evidence despite population differences in lipid phenotypes and CVD risk factors. An expert panel was convened to review the international guidelines commonly used in Asia and the Middle East and determine their applicability to clinical practice in the region, with specific recommendations, or considerations, provided where current guideline recommendations differ from local practice. Herein, we describe the heterogeneous approaches and application of current guidelines used to manage dyslipidemia in Asia and the Middle East. We provide consensus management recommendations to cover different patient scenarios, including primary prevention, elderly, chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes, documented CVD, acute coronary syndromes and family history of ischemic heart disease. Moreover, we advocate for countries within the Asian and Middle East regions to continue to develop guidelines that are appropriate for the local population.