A national quitline service and its promotion in the mass media: modelling the health gain, health equity and cost–utility

Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework

BACKGROUND

Policy simulation models (PSMs) have been used extensively to shape health policies before real-world implementation and evaluate post-implementation impact. This systematic review aimed to examine best practices, identify common pitfalls in tobacco control PSMs and propose a modelling quality assessment framework.

METHODS

We searched five databases to identify eligible publications from July 2013 to August 2019. We additionally included papers from Feirman et al for studies before July 2013. Tobacco control PSMs that project tobacco use and tobacco-related outcomes from smoking policies were included. We extracted model inputs, structure and outputs data for models used in two or more included papers. Using our proposed quality assessment framework, we scored these models on population representativeness, policy effectiveness evidence, simulated smoking histories, included smoking-related diseases, exposure-outcome lag time, transparency, sensitivity analysis, validation and equity.

FINDINGS

We found 146 eligible papers and 25 distinct models. Most models used population data from public or administrative registries, and all performed sensitivity analysis. However, smoking behaviour was commonly modelled into crude categories of smoking status. Eight models only presented overall changes in mortality rather than explicitly considering smoking-related diseases. Only four models reported impacts on health inequalities, and none offered the source code. Overall, the higher scored models achieved higher citation rates.

CONCLUSIONS

While fragments of good practices were widespread across the reviewed PSMs, only a few included a 'critical mass' of the good practices specified in our quality assessment framework. This framework might, therefore, potentially serve as a benchmark and support sharing of good modelling practices.

Prioritization of intervention domains to prevent cardiovascular disease: a country-level case study using global burden of disease and local data

AIM

We aimed to combine Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data and local data to identify the highest priority intervention domains for preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the case study country of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

Risk factor data for CVD in NZ were extracted from the GBD using the "GBD Results Tool." We prioritized risk factor domains based on consideration of the size of the health burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and then by the domain-specific interventions that delivered the highest health gains and cost-savings.

RESULTS

Based on the size of the CVD health burden in DALYs, the five top prioritized risk factor domains were: high systolic blood pressure (84,800 DALYs; 5400 deaths in 2019), then dietary risk factors, then high LDL cholesterol, then high BMI and then tobacco (30,400 DALYs; 1400 deaths). But if policy-makers aimed to maximize health gain and cost-savings from specific interventions that have been studied, then they would favor the dietary risk domain (e.g., a combined fruit and vegetable subsidy plus a sugar tax produced estimated lifetime savings of 894,000 health-adjusted life years and health system cost-savings of US$11.0 billion; both 3% discount rate). Other potential considerations for prioritization included the potential for total health gain that includes non-CVD health loss and potential for achieving relatively greater per capita health gain for Māori (Indigenous) to reduce health inequities.

CONCLUSIONS

We were able to show how CVD risk factor domains could be systematically prioritized using a mix of GBD and country-level data. Addressing high systolic blood pressure would be the top ranked domain if policy-makers focused just on the size of the health loss. But if policy-makers wished to maximize health gain and cost-savings using evaluated interventions, dietary interventions would be prioritized, e.g., food taxes and subsidies.

Tobacco endgame intervention impacts on health gains and Māori:non-Māori health inequity: a simulation study of the Aotearoa/New Zealand Tobacco Action Plan

BACKGROUND

The Aotearoa/New Zealand Government is aiming to end the tobacco epidemic and markedly reduce Māori:non-Māori health inequalities by legislating: (1) denicotinisation of retail tobacco, (2) 95% reduction in retail outlets and (c) a tobacco free-generation whereby people born after 2005 are unable to legally purchase tobacco. This paper estimates future smoking prevalence, mortality inequality and health-adjusted life year (HALY) impacts of these strategies.

METHODS

We used a Markov model to estimate future yearly smoking and vaping prevalence, linked to a proportional multistate life table model to estimate future mortality and HALYs.

RESULTS

The combined package of strategies (plus media promotion) reduced adult smoking prevalence from 31.8% in 2022 to 7.3% in 2025 for Māori, and 11.8% to 2.7% for non-Māori. The 5% smoking prevalence target was forecast to be achieved in 2026 and 2027 for Māori males and females, respectively.The HALY gains for the combined package over the population's remaining lifespan were estimated to be 594 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 443 000 to 738 000; 3% discount rate). Denicotinisation alone achieved 97% of these HALYs, the retail strategy 19% and tobacco-free generation 12%.By 2040, the combined package was forcat to reduce the gap in Māori:non-Māori all-cause mortality rates for people 45+ years old by 22.9% (95% UI: 19.9% to 26.2%) for females and 9.6% (8.4% to 11.0%) for males.

CONCLUSION

A tobacco endgame strategy, especially denicotinisation, could deliver large health benefits and dramatically reduce health inequities between Māori and non-Māori in Aotearoa/New Zealand.

Health promoting and demoting consumption: What accounts for budget share differentials by ethnicity in New Zealand

Background

Health demoting consumption of alcohol and tobacco are some of the most important risk factors for health loss worldwide, however there is limited information on these consumption risk factors in New Zealand (NZ) and whether inequities in the risk factors are ethnically patterned.

Methods

We used three nationally representative Household Economic Survey waves (2006/07, 2009/10, 2012/13) (n = 9030) in NZ to examine household expenditure for key health risk-related components of consumption by ethnicity, and its contributors to the differences using non-parametric, parametric and decomposition methods.

Results

Māori households (NZ indigenous population) were significantly poorer (25% less) than non-Māori households in terms of household per capita expenditure. However, our various econometric estimations suggested that, in relative terms, Māori spent more on tobacco and alcohol, and less on healthcare. The gaps become larger at upper quantiles of the budget share distributions; the composition effect (the gap due to differences in individual and household characteristics between Māori and non-Māori) explains most of the tobacco and alcohol budget share gap between the two groups, and less for healthcare. The structure effect (the gap due to returns to/or effect of individual and household characteristics) contributes very little to the budget share gap for tobacco and drink, but increasingly and predominantly when moving along the distribution of healthcare budget share.

The differences between Māori and non-Māori in household ownership, education, and income negatively affect budget share on these health demoting consumption (tobacco and alcohol). The household head's age, education, and employment contributed most to the structure effect.

Conclusions

Our study suggested ethnic inequities in the health risk consumption behaviour are evidenced in NZ. Interventions targeting education and employment that significantly affect household budget shares on risk factors (i.e., harmful consumption) for health loss may help narrow the gaps.

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Alcohol and tobacco are important risk factors for health loss worldwide.

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National Household Economic Survey data were analysed by ethnicity for New Zealand.

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Māori households spent more on tobacco and alcoholic drinks, and less on healthcare.

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The gap due to differences in household characteristics explains most of the budget share gap.

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Interventions targeting education and employment may help narrow the gaps.

Improving on estimates of the potential relative harm to health from using modern ENDS (vaping) compared to tobacco smoking

BACKGROUND

Although the harm to health from electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) compared to smoked tobacco remains highly uncertain, society and governments still need to know the likely range of the relative harm to inform regulatory policies for ENDS and smoking.

METHODS

We identified biomarkers with specificity of association with different disease groupings e.g., volatile organic compound (VOCs) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and tobacco-specific N´-nitrosamines (TSNAs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for all cancers. We conducted a review of recent studies (post January 2017) that compared these biomarkers between people exclusively using ENDS and those exclusively smoking tobacco. The percentage differences in these biomarkers, weighted by study size and adjusted for acrolein from other sources, were used as a proxy for the assumed percentage difference in disease harm between ENDS and smoking. These relative differences were applied to previously modelled estimates of smoking-related health loss (in health-adjusted life-years; HALYs).

RESULTS

The respective relative biomarker levels (ENDS vs smoking) were: 28% for respiratory diseases (five results, three studies); 42% for cancers (five results, four studies); and 35% for cardiovascular (seven results, four studies). When integrated with the HALY impacts by disease, the overall harm to health from ENDS was estimated to be 33% that of smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis, suggests that the use of modern ENDS devices (vaping) could be a third as harmful to health as smoking in a high-income country setting. But this estimate is based on a limited number of biomarker studies and is best be considered a likely upper level of ENDS risk given potential biases in our method (i.e., the biomarkers used being correlated with more unaccounted for toxicants in smoking compared to with using ENDS).

The impact of a regional smoking cessation program on referrals and use of Quitline services in Queensland, Australia: a controlled interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of smoking in Central Queensland (CQ), Australia was higher than the state and national averages. A regional smoking cessation initiative ("10,000 Lives") was launched to promote available interventions (e.g., Quitline). We investigated the impact of "10,000 Lives" on referral to and use of Quitline services.

METHODS

We conducted an interrupted time series analysis using a segmented Poisson regression model to measure the impact of "10,000 Lives" on monthly referrals to, and use of Quitline services (counselling sessions and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) dispatched by Quitline), in CQ compared to other areas in the state (control population). The control population included all regional areas in Queensland with a comparable smoking prevalence to CQ and similar access to Quitline's Intensive Quit Support Program. We calculated the changes in level and trend of outcomes in CQ relative to the change in the control area during the post-launch period of "10,000 Lives". The models were checked for autocorrelation and seasonality and adjusted accordingly.

FINDINGS

After the introduction of "10,000 Lives", the mean monthly rate per 1,000 smoking population increased in the intervention area for each outcome; e.g., from 3.3 to 10.8 for referrals to Quitline, from 1.6 to 4.4 for initial counselling session completed. These results were validated by the controlled interrupted time series analysis which showed relative increases for each of these outcomes (238•5% for monthly rate of referral to Quitline per 1,000 smoking population and 248•6% for monthly rate of initial counselling sessions completed per 1,000 smoking population).

INTERPRETATION

Our study demonstrates a locally coordinated health promotion initiative can promote and boost the referral to, and use of Quitline smoking cessation services.

FUNDING

The research is funded by a collaborative research grant between School of Public Health at University of Queensland and Central Queensland Public Health Unit which is awarded by the Central Queensland Hospital and Health Service (CQHHS93907). The lead author (AK) is supported by a University of Queensland Research Training Scholarship and a Research Higher Degree Top-up Scholarship.

Examining Equity Effects of Health Interventions in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review aims to catalogue and describe published applications of equity-informative cost-effectiveness analysis (CEAs).

METHODS

Following PRISMA guidelines, we searched Medline for English-language, peer-reviewed CEAs published on or before August 2019. We included CEAs that evaluated 2 or more alternatives; explicitly mentioned equity as a consideration or decision-making principle; and applied an equity-informative CEA method to analyze or examine at least 1 equity criterion in an applied CEA. We extracted data on selected characteristics and analyzed reporting quality using the CHEERS checklist.

RESULTS

Fifty-four articles identified through a search and bibliography reviews met the inclusion criteria. All articles were published on or after 2010, with 80% published after 2015. Most studies evaluated primary prevention interventions in disease areas such as cancer, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular disease. Equity impact analysis alone was the most common equity-informative CEA (56%), followed by equity impact analysis with financial protection effects (30%). At least 11 different equity criteria have been used in equity-informative CEAs; socioeconomic status and race/ethnicity were used most frequently. Seventy-eight percent of studies reported finding "greater value" in an intervention after examining its distributional effects.

CONCLUSION

The number of equity-informative CEAs is increasing, and the wide range of equity criteria, diseases, interventions, settings, and populations represented suggests that broad application of these methods is feasible but will require further refinement. Inclusion of equity into CEAs may shift the value of evaluated interventions and can provide crucial additional information for decision makers.

A systematic review of economic evaluations of public health interventions targeting alcohol, tobacco, illicit drug use and problematic gambling: Using a case study to assess transferability

AIMS

To identify and assess the cost-effectiveness of public health interventions targeting the use of alcohol, illicit drugs and tobacco, as well as problematic gambling behavior (ANDTS), and consider whether the results from these evaluations are transferable to the Swedish setting.

METHODS

A systematic review of economic evaluations within the area of ANDTS was conducted including studies published between January 2000 and November 2018, identified through Medline, PsychINFO, Web of Science, the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database and Health Technology Assessment. The quality of relevant studies and the possibilities of transferring results were assessed using criteria set out by the Swedish Agency for Health Technology Assessment.

RESULTS

Out of 54 relevant studies, 39 were of moderate to high quality and included in the review, however none for problematic gambling. Eighty-one out of a total of 91 interventions were cost-effective. The interventions largely focusing on taxed-based policies or screening and brief interventions. Thirteen of these studies were deemed to have high potential for transferability, with effect estimates considered relevant, and with good feasibility for implementation in Sweden.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions targeting alcohol- and illicit-drug use and tobacco use are cost-effective approaches, and results may be transferred to the Swedish setting. Caution must be taken regarding cost estimates and the quality of the evidence which the studies are based upon.

Chat-based hotlines for health promotion: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Chat-based hotlines use online messaging services or popular chat applications such as WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, and WeChat, to connect users to trained health providers or staff. Chat-based hotlines can provide real-time communication between health providers and patients.

METHODS

The evidence for chat-based hotlines for health promotion has not been reviewed systematically. Electronic databases (PubMed, Cochrane Database, Google Scholar) were searched to identify English-language studies describing original research published from 2009 to 2020. This review was registered with Prospero Register of Systematic Reviews (ID: CRD42020156670).

RESULTS

Twelve publications met our criteria. Ten studies reported on user characteristics, eight on comparing use of chat-based hotlines with different modes of support, six on health outcomes and six on user satisfaction. Included studies report that chat-based hotlines have been used primarily for crisis and emotional support in high-income countries. Chat-based hotlines using instant messenger applications were preferred over other modes of services such as email, text messaging, voice calls, and face-to-face counselling. Evaluations of health outcomes, although limited in rigor due to mostly observational study designs, indicate mostly positive and statistically significant effects on mental health outcomes such as anxiety, depression, well-being and suicidality. User satisfaction with chat-based hotlines were moderately high.

CONCLUSIONS

Chat-based hotlines may be effective ways to deliver crisis support services in high income settings. They may have the potential to be effective in low- and middle-income countries to expand the reach of mental health and crisis support services although such services have not yet been publicly evaluated.

Preventive Pharmacotherapy for Cardiovascular Disease: A Modelling Study Considering Health Gain, Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness when Stratifying by Absolute Risk

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death internationally. We aimed to model the impact of CVD preventive double therapy (a statin and anti-hypertensive) by clinician-assessed absolute risk level. An established and validated multi-state life-table model for the national New Zealand (NZ) population was adapted. The new version of the model specifically considered the 60–64-year-old male population which was stratified by risk using a published NZ-specific CVD risk equation. The intervention period of treatment was for five years, but a lifetime horizon was used for measuring benefits and costs (a five-year horizon was also implemented). We found that for this group offering double therapy was highly cost-effective in all absolute risk categories (eg, NZ$1580 per QALY gained in the >20% in 5 years risk stratum; 95%UI: Dominant to NZ$3990). Even in the lowest risk stratum (≤5% risk in 5 years), the cost per QALY was only NZ$25,500 (NZ$28,200 and US$19,100 in 2018). At an individual level, the gain for those who responded to the screening offer and commenced preventive treatment ranged from 0.6 to 4.9 months of quality-adjusted life gained (or less than a month gain with a five-year horizon). Nevertheless, at the individual level, patient considerations are critical as some people may decide that this amount of average health gain does not justify taking daily medication.

Can cost-effectiveness results be combined into a coherent league table? Case study from one high-income country

BACKGROUND

Doubts exist around the value of compiling league tables for cost-effectiveness results for health interventions, primarily due to methods differences. We aimed to determine if a reasonably coherent league table could be compiled using published studies for one high-income country: New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

Literature searches were conducted to identify NZ-relevant studies published in the peer-reviewed journal literature between 1 January 2010 and 8 October 2017. Only studies with the following metrics were included: cost per quality-adjusted life-year or disability-adjusted life-year or life-year (QALY/DALY/LY). Key study features were abstracted and a summary league table produced which classified the studies in terms of cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

A total of 21 cost-effectiveness studies which met the inclusion criteria were identified. There were some large methodological differences between the studies, particularly in the time horizon (1 year to lifetime) but also discount rates (range 0 to 10%). Nevertheless, we were able to group the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) into general categories of being reported as cost-saving (19%), cost-effective (71%), and not cost-effective (10%). The median ICER (adjusted to 2017 NZ$) was ~ $5000 per QALY/DALY/LY (~US$3500). However, for some interventions, there is high uncertainty around the intervention effectiveness and declining adherence over time.

CONCLUSIONS

It seemed possible to produce a reasonably coherent league table for the ICER values from different studies (within broad groupings) in this high-income country. Most interventions were cost-effective and a fifth were cost-saving. Nevertheless, study methodologies did vary widely and researchers need to pay more attention to using standardised methods that allow their results to be included in future league tables.

Mass media promotion of a smartphone smoking cessation app: modelled health and cost-saving impacts

BACKGROUND

Smartphones are increasingly available and some high quality apps are available for smoking cessation. However, the cost-effectiveness of promoting such apps has never been studied. We therefore aimed to estimate the health gain, inequality impacts and cost-utility from a five-year promotion campaign of a smoking cessation smartphone app compared to business-as-usual (no app use for quitting).

METHODS

A well-established Markov macro-simulation model utilising a multi-state life-table was adapted to the intervention (lifetime horizon, 3% discount rate). The setting was the New Zealand (NZ) population (N = 4.4 million). The intervention effect size was from a multi-country randomised trial: relative risk for quitting at 6 months = 2.23 (95%CI: 1.08 to 4.77), albeit subsequently adjusted to consider long-term relapse. Intervention costs were based on NZ mass media promotion data and the NZ cost of attracting a smoker to smoking cessation services (NZ$64 per person).

RESULTS

The five-year intervention was estimated to generate 6760 QALYs (95%UI: 5420 to 8420) over the remaining lifetime of the population. For Māori (Indigenous population) there was 2.8 times the per capita age-standardised QALY gain relative to non-Māori. The intervention was also estimated to be cost-saving to the health system (saving NZ$115 million [m], 95%UI: 72.5m to 171m; US$81.8m). The cost-saving aspect of the intervention was maintained in scenario and sensitivity analyses where the discount rate was doubled to 6%, the effect size halved, and the intervention run for just 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides modelling-level evidence that mass-media promotion of a smartphone app for smoking cessation could generate health gain, reduce ethnic inequalities in health and save health system costs. Nevertheless, there are other tobacco control measures which generate considerably larger health gains and cost-savings such as raising tobacco taxes.

Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice: a modelling study of the future smoking prevalence, health and cost impacts

OBJECTIVE

Restricting tobacco sales to pharmacies only, including the provision of cessation advice, has been suggested as a potential measure to hasten progress towards the tobacco endgame. We aimed to quantify the impacts of this hypothetical intervention package on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs for a country with an endgame goal: New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

We used two peer-reviewed simulation models: 1) a dynamic population forecasting model for smoking prevalence and 2) a closed cohort multi-state life-table model for future health gains and costs by sex, age and ethnicity. Greater costs due to increased travel distances to purchase tobacco were treated as an increase in the price of tobacco. Annual cessation rates were multiplied with the effect size for brief opportunistic cessation advice on sustained smoking abstinence.

RESULTS

The intervention package was associated with a reduction in future smoking prevalence, such that by 2025 prevalence was 17.3%/6.8% for Māori (Indigenous)/non-Māori compared to 20.5%/8.1% projected under no intervention. The measure was furthermore estimated to accrue 41 700 discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 33 500 to 51 600) over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lives. Of these QALYs gained, 74% were due to the provision of cessation advice over and above the limiting of sales to pharmacies.

CONCLUSIONS

This work provides modelling-level evidence that the package of restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice in these settings can accelerate progress towards the tobacco endgame, and achieve large population health benefits and cost-savings. :.

Impact of increasing tobacco taxes on working-age adults: short-term health gain, health equity and cost savings

OBJECTIVE

The health gains and cost savings from tobacco tax increase peak many decades into the future. Policy-makers may take a shorter-term perspective and be particularly interested in the health of working-age adults (given their role in economic productivity). Therefore, we estimated the impact of tobacco taxes in this population within a 10-year horizon.

METHODS

As per previous modelling work, we used a multistate life table model with 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, parameterised with rich national data by sex, age and ethnicity. The intervention modelled was 10% annual increases in tobacco tax from 2011 to 2020 in the New Zealand population (n=4.4 million in 2011). The perspective was that of the health system, and the discount rate used was 3%.

RESULTS

For this 10-year time horizon, the total health gain from the tobacco tax in discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in the 20-65 year age group (age at QALY accrual) was 180 QALYs or 1.6% of the lifetime QALYs gained in this age group (11 300 QALYs). Nevertheless, for this short time horizon: (1) cost savings in this group amounted to NZ$10.6 million (equivalent to US$7.1 million; 95% uncertainty interval: NZ$6.0 million to NZ$17.7 million); and (2) around two-thirds of the QALY gains for all ages occurred in the 20-65 year age group. Focusing on just the preretirement and postretirement ages, the QALY gains in each of the 60-64 and 65-69 year olds were 11.5% and 10.6%, respectively, of the 268 total QALYs gained for all age groups in 2011-2020.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of the health benefit over a 10-year horizon from increasing tobacco taxes is accrued in the working-age population (20-65 years). There remains a need for more work on the associated productivity benefits of such health gains.

Changing smoking-mortality association over time and across social groups: National census-mortality cohort studies from 1981 to 2011

The difference in mortality between current and never-smokers varies over time, affecting future projections of health gains from tobacco control. We examine this heterogeneity by sex, ethnicity and cause of death on absolute and relative scales using New Zealand census data. These data included smoking status, and were linked to subsequent mortality records in 1981-84, 1996-99 and 2006-11 for 25-74 year olds (16.1 million person-years of follow-up). Age-standardised mortality rates and rate differences (SRDs) were calculated comparing current to never-smokers, and Poisson regression was used to adjust for multiple socioeconomic factors and household smoking. We found that mortality declined over time in never-smokers; however, mortality trends in current-smokers varied by sex, ethnicity and cause of death. SRDs were stable over time in European/Other men, moderately widened in European/Other women and markedly increased in Māori men and women (Indigenous population). Poisson smoking-mortality rate ratios (RRs) increased from 1981-84 to 1996-99 with a moderate increase from 1996-99 to 2006-11 (RRs 1.48, 1.77, 1.79 in men and 1.51, 1.80, 1.90 in women). Socioeconomic confounding increased over time. In summary, this marked heterogeneity in smoking-mortality RRs over time has implications for estimating the future health and inequality impacts of tobacco control interventions.