Understanding Trophic Interactions in a Warming World by Bridging Foraging Ecology and Biomechanics with Network Science

Climate change will disrupt biological processes at every scale. Ecosystem functions and services vital to ecological resilience are set to shift, with consequences for how we manage land, natural resources, and food systems. Increasing temperatures cause morphological shifts, with concomitant implications for biomechanical performance metrics crucial to trophic interactions. Biomechanical performance, such as maximum bite force or running speed, determines the breadth of resources accessible to consumers, the outcome of interspecific interactions, and thus the structure of ecological networks. Climate change-induced impacts to ecosystem services and resilience are therefore on the horizon, mediated by disruptions of biomechanical performance and, consequently, trophic interactions across whole ecosystems. Here, we argue that there is an urgent need to investigate the complex interactions between climate change, biomechanical traits, and foraging ecology to help predict changes to ecological networks and ecosystem functioning. We discuss how these seemingly disparate disciplines can be connected through network science. Using an ant-plant network as an example, we illustrate how different data types could be integrated to investigate the interaction between warming, bite force, and trophic interactions, and discuss what such an integration will achieve. It is our hope that this integrative framework will help to identify a viable means to elucidate previously intractable impacts of climate change, with effective predictive potential to guide management and mitigation.

Phenology varies with phylogeny but not by trophic level with climate change

Shifts in phenology with climate change can lead to asynchrony between interacting species, with cascading impacts on ecosystem services. Previous meta-analyses have produced conflicting results on whether asynchrony has increased in recent decades, but the underlying data have also varied-including in species composition, interaction types and whether studies compared data grouped by trophic level or compared shifts in known interacting species pairs. Here, using updated data from previous studies and a Bayesian phylogenetic model, we found that species have advanced an average of 3.1 days per decade across 1,279 time series across 29 taxonomic classes. We found no evidence that shifts vary by trophic level: shifts were similar when grouped by trophic level, and for species pairs when grouped by their type of interaction-either as paired species known to interact or as randomly paired species. Phenology varied with phylogeny (λ = 0.4), suggesting that uneven sampling of species may affect estimates of phenology and potentially phenological shifts. These results could aid forecasting for well-sampled groups but suggest that climate change has not yet led to widespread increases in phenological asynchrony across interacting species, although substantial biases in current data make forecasting for most groups difficult.

Invasive shrubs differentially alter autumnal activity for three common small-mammal species

Seasonal variation in animal activity influences fitness and the intensity of ecological interactions (e.g., competition, predation), yet aspects of global change in the Anthropocene may catalyze shifts in seasonal activity. Invasive plants are components of global change and can modify animal daily activity, but their influence on animal seasonal activity is less understood. We examined how invasive woody shrubs (Autumn olive [Elaeagnus umbellata] and Amur honeysuckle [Lonicera maackii]) affect seasonal activity of three common small-mammal species by coupling experimental shrub removal with autumnal camera trapping for two consecutive years at six paired forest sites (total 12 plots). Eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus) foraged more, and foraging was observed at least 20 days longer, in shrub-invaded forests. White-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) foraged more in invaded than cleared plots in one study year, but P. leucopus autumn activity timing did not differ between shrub-removal treatments. Fox squirrel (Sciurus niger) activity displayed year-specific responses to shrub removal suggesting intraannual cues (e.g., temperature) structure S. niger autumnal activity. Our work highlights how plant invasions can have species-specific effects on seasonal animal activity, may modify the timing of physiological processes (e.g., torpor), and could generate variation in animal-mediated interactions such as seed dispersal or granivory.

Breeding phenology drives variation in reproductive output, reproductive costs, and offspring fitness in a viviparous ectotherm

Phenological advances are a widespread response to global warming and can contribute to determine the climate vulnerability of organisms, particularly in ectothermic species, which are highly dependent on ambient temperatures to complete their life cycle. Yet, the relative contribution of breeding dates and temperature conditions during gestation on fitness of females and their offspring is poorly documented in reptiles. Here, we exposed females of the common lizard Zootoca vivipara to contrasting thermal scenarios (cold vs. hot treatment) during gestation and quantified effects of parturition dates and thermal treatment on life-history traits of females and their offspring for 1 year. Overall, our results suggest that parturition date has a greater impact than thermal conditions during gestation on life history strategies. In particular, we found positive effects of an earlier parturition date on juvenile survival, growth, and recruitment suggesting that environmental-dependent selection and/or differences in parental quality between early and late breeders underlie seasonal changes in offspring fitness. Yet, an earlier parturition date compromised the energetic condition of gravid females, which suggests the existence of a mother-offspring conflict regarding the optimization of parturition dates. While numerous studies focused on the direct effects of alterations in incubation temperatures on reptile life-history traits, our results highlight the importance of considering the role of breeding phenology in assessing the short- and long-term effects of thermal developmental plasticity.

Dormancy of a specialist herbivore, Anthonomus rufipennis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), in a dry tropical forest

The life history aspects of dormancy of the weevil Anthonomus rufipennis LeConte (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) were studied a 57-month period in a seasonally dry tropical forest of central Mexico. Weevil populations and their physiological status were monitored on both the reproductive host tree, Senna polyantha (Collad.) H.S: Irwin & Barneby (Fabales: Fabaceae) and the highly favored refuge host, Tillandsia recurvata L. (Poales: Bromeliaceae) or "ball moss." During the dry season, weevils were only found on the refuge host with a mean total density of 1.014 ± 2.532 individuals/ball moss (N = 1,681). Weevil densities on T. recurvata between early and late dry seasons were not significantly different, suggesting that dry season survival was relatively high. Weevils collected during these seasons revealed little reproductive development and relatively high-fat accumulation in both sexes. During 5 of 6 yr, densities of the weevils in T. recurvata dropped significantly during the early rainy seasons, when the reproductive host trees leafed out and began producing oviposition sites (flower buds). At this time, more males than females initially moved to vegetative trees and showed significant signs of reproductive development. Recolonization of ball moss by weevils began during the late rainy season when oviposition sites (flower buds) were still available. A proportion of the weevils remained on the reproductive host, suggesting that A. rufipennis is facultatively multivoltine. The methodologies and results of the study can serve as a model system for future studies of the dormancy of other insects in dry tropical forests and provide insight into the dormancy of other anthonomine weevils of economic importance.

Differential responses of vegetation phenology to climatic elements during extreme events on the Chinese loess plateau

Extreme, dry events have major impacts on vegetation phenology worldwide. However, the differential responses of vegetation phenology to climatic elements during these extreme events remain unclear. We investigated the response of vegetation phenology to climatic factors during extreme events in arid and semi-arid regions of the Chinese Loess Plateau, using the climate water deficit method, to identify extremely dry and wet events. The results revealed that extremely wet events extended the vegetation growth periods in addition to global warming, whereas extremely dry events did not completely counteract this effect. During different extreme events, phenological changes in vegetation on the Loess Plateau were primarily influenced by the interactive effects of climatic factors. During extremely dry events, a 100 mm increase in precipitation advanced the start of the season by 3.0, 9.2, and 16.7 days in forest, shrubland, and grassland, respectively. During extremely wet events, a 1 °C rise in temperature delayed the end of the season by 1.6, 0.6, and 3.8 days in forest, shrubland, and grassland, respectively. These findings provide crucial guidance for improving predictions of plant phenology changes under extreme climatic events and unraveling biosphere-atmosphere feedback cycles.

To live or let die? Epigenetic adaptations to climate change-a review

Anthropogenic activities are responsible for a wide array of environmental disturbances that threaten biodiversity. Climate change, encompassing temperature increases, ocean acidification, increased salinity, droughts, and floods caused by frequent extreme weather events, represents one of the most significant environmental alterations. These drastic challenges pose ecological constraints, with over a million species expected to disappear in the coming years. Therefore, organisms must adapt or face potential extinctions. Adaptations can occur not only through genetic changes but also through non-genetic mechanisms, which often confer faster acclimatization and wider variability ranges than their genetic counterparts. Among these non-genetic mechanisms are epigenetics defined as the study of molecules and mechanisms that can perpetuate alternative gene activity states in the context of the same DNA sequence. Epigenetics has received increased attention in the past decades, as epigenetic mechanisms are sensitive to a wide array of environmental cues, and epimutations spread faster through populations than genetic mutations. Epimutations can be neutral, deleterious, or adaptative and can be transmitted to subsequent generations, making them crucial factors in both long- and short-term responses to environmental fluctuations, such as climate change. In this review, we compile existing evidence of epigenetic involvement in acclimatization and adaptation to climate change and discuss derived perspectives and remaining challenges in the field of environmental epigenetics. Graphical Abstract.

Time is of the essence: A general framework for uncovering temporal structures of communities

Ecological communities are inherently dynamic: species constantly turn over within years, months, weeks or even days. These temporal shifts in community composition determine essential aspects of species interactions and how energy, nutrients, information, diseases and perturbations 'flow' through systems. Yet, our understanding of community structure has relied heavily on static analyses not designed to capture critical features of this dynamic temporal dimension of communities. Here, we propose a conceptual and methodological framework for quantifying and analysing this temporal dimension. Conceptually, we split the temporal structure into two definitive features, sequence and duration, and review how they are linked to key concepts in ecology. We then outline how we can capture these definitive features using perspectives and tools from temporal graph theory. We demonstrate how we can easily integrate ongoing research on phenology into this framework and highlight what new opportunities arise from this approach to answer fundamental questions in community ecology. As climate change reshuffles ecological communities worldwide, quantifying the temporal organization of communities is imperative to resolve the fundamental processes that shape natural ecosystems and predict how these systems may change in the future.

Land use modulates resistance of grasslands against future climate and inter-annual climate variability in a large field experiment

Climate and land-use change are key drivers of global change. Full-factorial field experiments in which both drivers are manipulated are essential to understand and predict their potentially interactive effects on the structure and functioning of grassland ecosystems. Here, we present 8 years of data on grassland dynamics from the Global Change Experimental Facility in Central Germany. On large experimental plots, temperature and seasonal patterns of precipitation are manipulated by superimposing regional climate model projections onto background climate variability. Climate manipulation is factorially crossed with agricultural land-use scenarios, including intensively used meadows and extensively used (i.e., low-intensity) meadows and pastures. Inter-annual variation of background climate during our study years was high, including three of the driest years on record for our region. The effects of this temporal variability far exceeded the effects of the experimentally imposed climate change on plant species diversity and productivity, especially in the intensively used grasslands sown with only a few grass cultivars. These changes in productivity and diversity in response to alterations in climate were due to immigrant species replacing the target forage cultivars. This shift from forage cultivars to immigrant species may impose additional economic costs in terms of a decreasing forage value and the need for more frequent management measures. In contrast, the extensively used grasslands showed weaker responses to both experimentally manipulated future climate and inter-annual climate variability, suggesting that these diverse grasslands are more resistant to climate change than intensively used, species-poor grasslands. We therefore conclude that a lower management intensity of agricultural grasslands, associated with a higher plant diversity, can stabilize primary productivity under climate change.

Relative breeding timing and reproductive success of a resident montane bird species

Wild populations appear to synchronize their reproductive phenology based on numerous environmental and ecological factors; yet, there is still individual variation in the timing of reproduction within populations and such variation may be associated with fitness consequences. For example, many studies have documented a seasonal decline in reproductive fitness, but breeding timing may have varying consequences across different environments. Using 11 years of data, we investigated the relationship between relative breeding timing and reproductive success in resident mountain chickadees (Poecile gambeli) across two elevational bands in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA. Chickadees that synchronized breeding with the majority of the population ('peak' of breeding) did not have the highest breeding success. Instead, birds that bred early performed best at high elevation, while at low elevation early and peak nests performed similarly. At both elevations, late nests consistently performed the worst. Overall, breeding success decreased with increasing relative timing at both high and low elevations, but the relationship between breeding success and timing differed among years. Our results suggest that in mountain chickadees, earlier breeding is associated with higher reproductive success, especially at high elevations, while late breeding is consistently associated with lower reproductive success at both elevations.

Understory plants evade shading in a temperate deciduous forest amid climate variability by shifting phenology in synchrony with canopy trees

Global warming is leading understory and canopy plant communities of temperate deciduous forests to grow leaves earlier in spring and drop them later in autumn. If understory species extend their leafy seasons less than canopy trees, they will intercept less light. We look for mismatched phenological shifts between canopy and understory in 28 years (1995-2022) of weekly data from Trelease Woods, Urbana, IL, USA. The observations cover 31 herb species of contrasting seasonality (for 1995-2017), three sapling species, and the 15 most dominant canopy tree species for all years, combined with solar radiation, temperature and canopy light transmittance data. We estimate how understory phenology, cold temperatures, canopy phenology, and solar radiation have individually limited understory plants' potential light interception over >2 decades. Understory and canopy phenology were the two factors most limiting to understory light availability, but which was more limiting varied greatly among species and among/within seasonality groups; solar radiation ranked third and cold fourth. Understory and canopy phenology shifts usually occurred in the same direction; either both strata were early or both were late, offsetting each other's effects. The four light-limiting factors combined showed significant temporal trends for six understory species, five toward less light interception. Warmer springs were significantly associated with shifts toward more light interception in three sapling species and 19 herb species. Canopy phenology became more limiting in warmer years for all three saplings species and 31 herb species. However, in aggregate, these variables mostly offset one another; only one sapling and seven herb species showed overall significant (and negative) relationships between light interception and spring temperature. The few understory species mismatched with canopy phenology due to changing climate are likely to intercept less light in future warmer years. The few species with data for carbon assimilation show broadly similar patterns to light interception.

Boosting biodiversity monitoring using smartphone-driven, rapidly accumulating community-sourced data

Comprehensive biodiversity data is crucial for ecosystem protection. The Biome mobile app, launched in Japan, efficiently gathers species observations from the public using species identification algorithms and gamification elements. The app has amassed >6 million observations since 2019. Nonetheless, community-sourced data may exhibit spatial and taxonomic biases. Species distribution models (SDMs) estimate species distribution while accommodating such bias. Here, we investigated the quality of Biome data and its impact on SDM performance. Species identification accuracy exceeds 95% for birds, reptiles, mammals, and amphibians, but seed plants, molluscs, and fishes scored below 90%. Our SDMs for 132 terrestrial plants and animals across Japan revealed that incorporating Biome data into traditional survey data improved accuracy. For endangered species, traditional survey data required >2000 records for accurate models (Boyce index ≥ 0.9), while blending the two data sources reduced this to around 300. The uniform coverage of urban-natural gradients by Biome data, compared to traditional data biased towards natural areas, may explain this improvement. Combining multiple data sources better estimates species distributions, aiding in protected area designation and ecosystem service assessment. Establishing a platform for accumulating community-sourced distribution data will contribute to conserving and monitoring natural ecosystems.

The environment to the rescue: can physics help predict predator-prey interactions?

Understanding the factors that determine the occurrence and strength of ecological interactions under specific abiotic and biotic conditions is fundamental since many aspects of ecological community stability and ecosystem functioning depend on patterns of interactions among species. Current approaches to mapping food webs are mostly based on traits, expert knowledge, experiments, and/or statistical inference. However, they do not offer clear mechanisms explaining how trophic interactions are affected by the interplay between organism characteristics and aspects of the physical environment, such as temperature, light intensity or viscosity. Hence, they cannot yet predict accurately how local food webs will respond to anthropogenic pressures, notably to climate change and species invasions. Herein, we propose a framework that synthesises recent developments in food-web theory, integrating body size and metabolism with the physical properties of ecosystems. We advocate for combination of the movement paradigm with a modular definition of the predation sequence, because movement is central to predator-prey interactions, and a generic, modular model is needed to describe all the possible variation in predator-prey interactions. Pending sufficient empirical and theoretical knowledge, our framework will help predict the food-web impacts of well-studied physical factors, such as temperature and oxygen availability, as well as less commonly considered variables such as wind, turbidity or electrical conductivity. An improved predictive capability will facilitate a better understanding of ecosystem responses to a changing world.

Temperature and water availability drive insect seasonality across a temperate and a tropical region

The more insects there are, the more food there is for insectivores and the higher the likelihood for insect-associated ecosystem services. Yet, we lack insights into the drivers of insect biomass over space and seasons, for both tropical and temperate zones. We used 245 Malaise traps, managed by 191 volunteers and park guards, to characterize year-round flying insect biomass in a temperate (Sweden) and a tropical (Madagascar) country. Surprisingly, we found that local insect biomass was similar across zones. In Sweden, local insect biomass increased with accumulated heat and varied across habitats, while biomass in Madagascar was unrelated to the environmental predictors measured. Drivers behind seasonality partly converged: In both countries, the seasonality of insect biomass differed between warmer and colder sites, and wetter and drier sites. In Sweden, short-term deviations from expected season-specific biomass were explained by week-to-week fluctuations in accumulated heat, rainfall and soil moisture, whereas in Madagascar, weeks with higher soil moisture had higher insect biomass. Overall, our study identifies key drivers of the seasonal distribution of flying insect biomass in a temperate and a tropical climate. This knowledge is key to understanding the spatial and seasonal availability of insects-as well as predicting future scenarios of insect biomass change.

Predicting resilience of migratory birds to environmental change

The pace and scale of environmental change represent major challenges to many organisms. Animals that move long distances, such as migratory birds, are especially vulnerable to change since they need chains of intact habitat along their migratory routes. Estimating the resilience of such species to environmental changes assists in targeting conservation efforts. We developed a migration modeling framework to predict past (1960s), present (2010s), and future (2060s) optimal migration strategies across five shorebird species (Scolopacidae) within the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, which has seen major habitat deterioration and loss over the last century, and compared these predictions to empirical tracks from the present. Our model captured the migration strategies of the five species and identified the changes in migrations needed to respond to habitat deterioration and climate change. Notably, the larger species, with single or few major stopover sites, need to establish new migration routes and strategies, while smaller species can buffer habitat loss by redistributing their stopover areas to novel or less-used sites. Comparing model predictions with empirical tracks also indicates that larger species with the stronger need for adaptations continue to migrate closer to the optimal routes of the past, before habitat deterioration accelerated. Our study not only quantifies the vulnerability of species in the face of global change but also explicitly reveals the extent of adaptations required to sustain their migrations. This modeling framework provides a tool for conservation planning that can accommodate the future needs of migratory species.

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

A whole ecosystem approach to pear psyllid (Cacopsylla pyri) management in a changing climate

Whole ecosystem-based approaches are becoming increasingly common in pest management within agricultural systems. These strategies consider all trophic levels and abiotic processes within an ecosystem, including interactions between different factors. This review outlines a whole ecosystem approach to the integrated pest management of pear psyllid (Cacopsylla pyri Linnaeus) within pear (Pyrus communis L.) orchards, focusing on potential disruptions as a result of climate change. Pear psyllid is estimated to cost the UK pear industry £5 million per annum and has a significant economic impact on pear production globally. Pesticide resistance is well documented in psyllids, leading to many growers to rely on biological control using natural enemies during the summer months. In addition, multiple insecticides commonly used in pear psyllid control have been withdrawn from the UK and Europe, emphasising the need for alternative control methods. There is growing concern that climate change could alter trophic interactions and phenological events within agroecosystems. For example, warmer temperatures could lead to earlier pear flowering and pest emergence, as well as faster insect development rates and altered activity levels. If climate change impacts pear psyllid differently to natural enemies, then trophic mismatches could occur, impacting pest populations. This review aims to evaluate current strategies used in C. pyri management, discuss trophic interactions within this agroecosystem and highlight potential changes in the top-down and bottom-up control of C. pyri as a result of climate change. This review provides a recommended approach to pear psyllid management, identifies evidence gaps and outlines areas of future research.

Local reflects global: Life stage-dependent changes in the phenology of coastal habitat use by North Sea herring

Climate warming is affecting the suitability and utilization of coastal habitats by marine fishes around the world. Phenological changes are an important indicator of population responses to climate-induced changes but remain difficult to detect in marine fish populations. The design of large-scale monitoring surveys does not allow fine-grained temporal inference of population responses, while the responses of ecologically and economically important species groups such as small pelagic fish are particularly sensitive to temporal resolution. Here, we use the longest, highest resolution time series of species composition and abundance of marine fishes in northern Europe to detect possible phenological shifts in the small pelagic North Sea herring. We detect a clear forward temporal shift in the phenology of nearshore habitat use by small juvenile North Sea herring. This forward shift might be linked to changes in water temperatures in the North Sea. We next assessed the robustness of the effects we found with respect to monitoring design. We find that reducing the temporal resolution of our data to reflect the resolution typical of larger surveys makes it difficult to detect phenological shifts and drastically reduces the effect sizes of environmental covariates such as seawater temperature. Our study therefore shows how local, long-term, high-resolution time series of fish catches are essential to understand the general phenological responses of marine fishes to climate warming and to define ecological indicators of system-level changes.

Spatial variability in herbaceous plant phenology is mostly explained by variability in temperature but also by photoperiod and functional traits

Whereas temporal variability of plant phenology in response to climate change has already been well studied, the spatial variability of phenology is not well understood. Given that phenological shifts may affect biotic interactions, there is a need to investigate how the variability in environmental factors relates to the spatial variability in herbaceous species' phenology by at the same time considering their functional traits to predict their general and species-specific responses to future climate change. In this project, we analysed phenology records of 148 herbaceous species, which were observed for a single year by the PhenObs network in 15 botanical gardens. For each species, we characterised the spatial variability in six different phenological stages across gardens. We used boosted regression trees to link these variabilities in phenology to the variability in environmental parameters (temperature, latitude and local habitat conditions) as well as species traits (seed mass, vegetative height, specific leaf area and temporal niche) hypothesised to be related to phenology variability. We found that spatial variability in the phenology of herbaceous species was mainly driven by the variability in temperature but also photoperiod was an important driving factor for some phenological stages. In addition, we found that early-flowering and less competitive species characterised by small specific leaf area and vegetative height were more variable in their phenology. Our findings contribute to the field of phenology by showing that besides temperature, photoperiod and functional traits are important to be included when spatial variability of herbaceous species is investigated.

Heat and desiccation tolerances predict bee abundance under climate change

Climate change could pose an urgent threat to pollinators, with critical ecological and economic consequences. However, for most insect pollinator species, we lack the long-term data and mechanistic evidence that are necessary to identify climate-driven declines and predict future trends. Here we document 16 years of abundance patterns for a hyper-diverse bee assemblage1 in a warming and drying region2, link bee declines with experimentally determined heat and desiccation tolerances, and use climate sensitivity models to project bee communities into the future. Aridity strongly predicted bee abundance for 71% of 665 bee populations (species × ecosystem combinations). Bee taxa that best tolerated heat and desiccation increased the most over time. Models forecasted declines for 46% of species and predicted more homogeneous communities dominated by drought-tolerant taxa, even while total bee abundance may remain unchanged. Such community reordering could reduce pollination services, because diverse bee assemblages typically maximize pollination for plant communities3. Larger-bodied bees also dominated under intermediate to high aridity, identifying body size as a valuable trait for understanding how climate-driven shifts in bee communities influence pollination4. We provide evidence that climate change directly threatens bee diversity, indicating that bee conservation efforts should account for the stress of aridity on bee physiology.

Temperature has an overriding role compared to photoperiod in regulating the seasonal timing of winter moth egg hatching

To accurately predict species' phenology under climate change, we need to gain a detailed mechanistic understanding of how different environmental cues interact to produce the seasonal timing response. In the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), seasonal timing of egg hatching is strongly affected by ambient temperature and has been under strong climate change-induced selection over the past 25 years. However, it is unclear whether photoperiod received at the egg stage also influences timing of egg hatching. Here, we investigated the relative contribution of photoperiod and temperature in regulating winter moth egg development using two split-brood experiments. We experimentally shifted the photoperiod eggs received by 2-4 weeks compared to the actual calendar date and measured the timing of egg hatching, both at a constant temperature and in combination with two naturally changing temperature treatments - mimicking a cold and a warm year. We found an eight-fold larger effect of temperature compared to photoperiod on egg development time. Moreover, the very small photoperiod effects we found were outweighed by both between- and within-clutch variation in egg development time. Thus, we conclude that photoperiod received at the egg stage does likely not play a substantial role in regulating the seasonal timing of egg hatching in the winter moth. These insights into the regulatory mechanism of seasonal timing could have important implications for predicting insect climate change adaptation, as we might expect different targets of selection depending on the relative contribution of different environmental cues.

Odours of caterpillar-infested trees increase testosterone concentrations in male great tits

Trees release Herbivore-Induced Plant Volatiles (HIPVs) into the air in response to damage inflicted by insects. It is known that songbirds use those compounds to locate their prey, but more recently the idea emerged that songbirds could also use those odours as cues in their reproductive decisions, as early spring HIPVs may contain information about the seasonal timing and abundance of insects. We exposed pre-breeding great tits (Parus major) to the odours of caterpillar-infested trees under controlled conditions, and monitored reproduction (timing of egg laying, number of eggs, egg size) and two of its main hormonal drivers (testosterone and 17β-estradiol in males and females, respectively). We found that females exposed to HIPVs did not advance their laying dates, nor laid larger clutches, or larger eggs compared to control females. 17β-estradiol concentrations in females were also similar between experimental and control birds. However, males exposed to HIPVs had higher testosterone concentrations during the egg-laying period. Our study supports the hypothesis that insectivorous songbirds are able to detect minute amounts of plant odours. The sole manipulation of plant scents was not sufficient to lure females into a higher reproductive investment, but males increased their reproductive effort in response to a novel source of information for seasonal breeding birds.

Evolutionary plant-pollinator responses to anthropogenic land-use change: impacts on ecosystem services

Agricultural intensification at field and landscape scales, including increased use of agrochemicals and loss of semi-natural habitats, is a major driver of insect declines and other community changes. Efforts to understand and mitigate these effects have traditionally focused on ecological responses. At the same time, adaptations to pesticide use and habitat fragmentation in both insects and flowering plants show the potential for rapid evolution. Yet we lack an understanding of how such evolutionary responses may propagate within and between trophic levels with ensuing consequences for conservation of species and ecological functions in agroecosystems. Here, we review the literature on the consequences of agricultural intensification on plant and animal evolutionary responses and interactions. We present a novel conceptualization of evolutionary change induced by agricultural intensification at field and landscape scales and emphasize direct and indirect effects of rapid evolution on ecosystem services. We exemplify by focusing on economically and ecologically important interactions between plants and pollinators. We showcase available eco-evolutionary theory and plant-pollinator modelling that can improve predictions of how agricultural intensification affects interaction networks, and highlight available genetic and trait-focused methodological approaches. Specifically, we focus on how spatial genetic structure affects the probability of propagated responses, and how the structure of interaction networks modulates effects of evolutionary change in individual species. Thereby, we highlight how combined trait-based eco-evolutionary modelling, functionally explicit quantitative genetics, and genomic analyses may shed light on conditions where evolutionary responses impact important ecosystem services.

Decadal-scale variability and warming affect spring timing and forest growth across the western Great Lakes region

The Great Lakes region of North America has warmed by 1-2 °C on average since pre-industrial times, with the most pronounced changes observable during winter and spring. Interannual variability in temperatures remains high, however, due to the influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns that modulate the warming trend across years. Variations in spring temperatures determine growing season length and plant phenology, with implications for whole ecosystem function. Studying how both internal climate variability and the "secular" warming trend interact to produce trends in temperature is necessary to estimate potential ecological responses to future warming scenarios. This study examines how external anthropogenic forcing and decadal-scale variability influence spring temperatures across the western Great Lakes region and estimates the sensitivity of regional forests to temperature using long-term growth records from tree-rings and satellite data. Using a modeling approach designed to test for regime shifts in dynamic time series, this work shows that mid-continent spring climatology was strongly influenced by the 1976/1977 phase change in North Pacific atmospheric circulation, and that regional forests show a strengthening response to spring temperatures during the last half-century.

Decoupling of bird migration from the changing phenology of spring green-up

The green-up of vegetation in spring brings a pulse of food resources that many animals track during migration. However, green-up phenology is changing with climate change, posing an immense challenge for species that time their migrations to coincide with these resource pulses. We evaluated changes in green-up phenology from 2002 to 2021 in relation to the migrations of 150 Western-Hemisphere bird species using eBird citizen science data. We found that green-up phenology has changed within bird migration routes, and yet the migrations of most species align more closely with long-term averages of green-up than with current conditions. Changing green-up strongly influenced phenological mismatches, especially for longer-distance migrants. These results reveal that bird migration may have limited flexibility to adjust to changing vegetation phenology and emphasize the mounting challenge migratory animals face in following en route resources in a changing climate.

Weak evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology across Europe and North America

Forecasting the biological impacts of climate change requires understanding how species respond to warmer temperatures through interannual flexible variation vs through adaptation to local conditions. Yet, we often lack this information entirely or find conflicting evidence across studies, which is the case for spring phenology. We synthesized common garden studies across Europe and North America that reported spring event dates for a mix of angiosperm and gymnosperm tree species in the northern hemisphere, capturing data from 384 North American and 101 European provenances (i.e. populations) with observations from 1962 to 2019, alongside autumn event data when provided. Across continents, we found no evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology, but strong clines with latitude and mean annual temperature in autumn. These effects, however, appeared to diverge by continent and species type (gymnosperm vs angiosperm), with particularly pronounced clines in North America in autumn events. Our results suggest flexible, likely plastic responses, in spring phenology with warming, and potential limits - at least in the short term - due to provenance effects for autumn phenology. They also highlight that, after over 250 yr of common garden studies on tree phenology, we still lack a holistic predictive model of clines across species and phenological events.

Opportunistic plant observations reveal spatial and temporal gradients in phenology

Opportunistic plant records provide a rapidly growing source of spatiotemporal plant observation data. Here, we used such data to explore the question whether they can be used to detect changes in species phenologies. Examining 19 herbaceous and one woody plant species in two consecutive years across Europe, we observed significant shifts in their flowering phenology, being more pronounced for spring-flowering species (6-17 days) compared to summer-flowering species (1-6 days). Moreover, we show that these data are suitable to model large-scale relationships such as "Hopkins' bioclimatic law" which quantifies the phenological delay with increasing elevation, latitude, and longitude. Here, we observe spatial shifts, ranging from -5 to 50 days per 1000 m elevation to latitudinal shifts ranging from -1 to 4 days per degree northwards, and longitudinal shifts ranging from -1 to 1 day per degree eastwards, depending on the species. Our findings show that the increasing volume of purely opportunistic plant observation data already provides reliable phenological information, and therewith can be used to support global, high-resolution phenology monitoring in the face of ongoing climate change.

Sparse modeling for climate variable selection across trophic levels

Understanding how populations respond to climate is fundamentally important to many questions in ecology, evolution, and conservation biology. Climate is complex and multifaceted, with aspects affecting populations in different and sometimes unexpected ways. Thus, when measuring the changing climate it is important to consider the complexity of the phenomenon and the number of ways it can be characterized through different metrics. We used a Bayesian sparse modeling approach to select among 80 metrics of climate and applied the approach to 19 datasets of bird, insect, and plant population responses to abiotic conditions as case studies of how the method can be applied for climate variable selection in a time series context. For phenological datasets, mean spring temperature was frequently selected as an important climate driver, while selected predictors were more diverse for population metrics such as abundance or reproductive success. The climate variable selection approach presented here can help to identify potential climate metrics when there is limited physiological or mechanistic information to make an a priori variable selection, and is broadly applicable across studies on population responses to climate.

Feasting on the ordinary or starving for the exceptional in a warming climate: Phenological synchrony between spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) and budburst of six European tree species

Global warming is affecting the phenological cycles of plants and animals, altering the complex synchronization that has co-evolved over thousands of years between interacting species and trophic levels. Here, we examined how warmer winter conditions affect the timing of budburst in six common European trees and the hatching of a generalist leaf-feeding insect, the spongy moth Lymantria dispar, whose fitness depends on the synchrony between egg hatch and leaf emergence of the host tree. We applied four different temperature treatments to L. dispar eggs and twig cuttings, that mimicked warmer winters and reduced chilling temperatures that are necessary for insect diapause and bud dormancy release, using heated open-top chambers (ambient or +3.5°C), and heated greenhouses (maintained at >6°C or >10°C). In addition, we conducted preference and performance tests to determine which tree species the larvae prefer and benefit from the most. Budburst success and twig survival were highest for all tree species at ambient temperature conditions, whereas it declined under elevated winter temperature for Tilia cordata and Acer pseudoplatanus, likely due to a lack of chilling. While L. dispar egg hatch coincided with budburst in most tree species within 10 days under ambient conditions, it coincided with budburst only in Quercus robur, Carpinus betulus, and, to a lesser extent, Ulmus glabra under warmer conditions. With further warming, we, therefore, expect an increasing mismatch in trees with high chilling requirements, such as Fagus sylvatica and A. pseudoplatanus, but still good synchronization with trees having low chilling requirements, such as Q. robur and C. betulus. Surprisingly, first instar larvae preferred and gained weight faster when fed with leaves of F. sylvatica, while Q. robur ranked second. Our results suggest that spongy moth outbreaks are likely to persist in oak and hornbeam forests in western and central Europe.

Forest understorey flowering phenology responses to experimental warming and illumination

Species are altering their phenology to track warming temperatures. In forests, understorey plants experience tree canopy shading resulting in light and temperature conditions, which strongly deviate from open habitats. Yet, little is known about understorey phenology responses to forest microclimates. We recorded flowering onset, peak, end and duration of 10 temperate forest understorey plant species in two mesocosm experiments to understand how phenology is affected by sub-canopy warming and how this response is modulated by illumination, which is related to canopy change. Furthermore, we investigated whether phenological sensitivities can be explained by species' characteristics, such as thermal niche. We found a mean advance of flowering onset of 7.1 d per 1°C warming, more than previously reported in studies not accounting for microclimatic buffering. Warm-adapted species exhibited greater advances. Temperature sensitivity did not differ between early- and later-flowering species. Experimental illumination did not significantly affect species' phenological temperature sensitivities, but slightly delayed flowering phenology independent from warming. Our study suggests that integrating sub-canopy temperature and light availability will help us better understand future understorey phenology responses. Climate warming together with intensifying canopy disturbances will continue to drive phenological shifts and potentially disrupt understorey communities, thereby affecting forest biodiversity and functioning.

Elevational and seasonal patterns of plant pollinator networks in two highland tropical ecosystems in Costa Rica

Many plant species in high montane ecosystems rely on animal pollination for sexual reproduction, however, our understanding of plant-pollinator interactions in tropical montane habitats is still limited. We compared species diversity and composition of blooming plants and floral visitors, and the structure of plant-floral visitor networks between the Montane Forest and Paramo ecosystems in Costa Rica. We also studied the influence of seasonality on species composition and interaction structure. Given the severe climatic conditions experienced by organisms in habitats above treeline, we expected lower plant and insect richness, as well as less specialized and smaller pollination networks in the Paramo than in Montane Forest where climatic conditions are milder and understory plants are better protected. Accordingly, we found that blooming plants and floral visitor species richness was higher in the Montane Forest than in the Paramo, and in both ecosystems species richness of blooming plants and floral visitors was higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. Interaction networks in the Paramo were smaller and more nested, with lower levels of specialization and modularity than those in the Montane Forest, but there were no seasonal differences within either ecosystem. Beta diversity analyses indicate that differences between ecosystems are likely explained by species turnover, whereas within the Montane Forest differences between seasons are more likely explained by the rewiring of interactions. Results indicate that the decrease in species diversity with elevation affects network structure, increasing nestedness and reducing specialization and modularity.

A life-history allele of large effect shortens developmental time in a wild insect population

Developmental time is a key life-history trait with large effects on Darwinian fitness. In many insects, developmental time is currently under strong selection to minimize ecological mismatches in seasonal timing induced by climate change. The genetic basis of responses to such selection, however, is poorly understood. To address this problem, we set up a long-term evolve-and-resequence experiment in the beetle Tribolium castaneum and selected replicate, outbred populations for fast or slow embryonic development. The response to this selection was substantial and embryonic developmental timing of the selection lines started to diverge during dorsal closure. Pooled whole-genome resequencing, gene expression analysis and an RNAi screen pinpoint a 222 bp deletion containing binding sites for Broad and Tramtrack upstream of the ecdysone degrading enzyme Cyp18a1 as a main target of selection. Using CRISPR/Cas9 to reconstruct this allele in the homogenous genetic background of a laboratory strain, we unravel how this single deletion advances the embryonic ecdysone peak inducing dorsal closure and show that this allele accelerates larval development but causes a trade-off with fecundity. Our study uncovers a life-history allele of large effect and reveals the evolvability of developmental time in a natural insect population.

The phenological response of European vegetation to urbanisation is mediated by macrobioclimatic factors

Plant phenology is a crucial component of ecosystem functioning and is affected by multiple elements of global change; we therefore need to quantify the current phenological changes associated to human activities and understand their impacts on ecosystems. Urbanisation and the intensification of anthropogenic activities alter meteorological conditions and cause phenological changes in urban vegetation worldwide. We used remote sensing data to evaluate the phenological response (start of season date SOS, length of season LOS and end of season date EOS) of five main vegetation types (evergreen forests, deciduous forests, mixed forests, sparse woody vegetation and grasslands) to urbanisation in the 69 most populated pan-European metropolitan areas (i.e., those that include cities with a population over 450,000 inhabitants) for the period 2002-2021. In general, SOS advanced and LOS increased with urbanisation intensity across European metropolitan areas. We found that macrobioclimatic factors strongly determined the strength and direction of the phenological response to urbanisation intensity. The greatest advances in SOS with increasing urbanisation were registered in metropolitan areas in the Mediterranean region, where there was also more uncertainty in this relationship. The EOS advanced with urbanisation in metropolitan areas in the Mediterranean macrobioclimate, whereas in areas with higher precipitation during summer the opposite trend was observed suggesting water availability mediates the response between urbanisation and autumn phenophases. Our results suggest that macrobioclimatic constraints operating at the continental scale are crucial to understand the relationship between plant phenology and urbanisation intensity.

Plant phenology shifts under climate warming: a systematic review of recent scientific literature

Climate warming-driven temporal shifts in phenology are widely recognised as the foremost footprint of global environmental change. In this regard, concerted research efforts are being made worldwide to monitor and assess the plant phenological responses to climate warming across species, ecosystems and seasons. Here, we present a global synthesis of the recent scientific literature to assess the progress made in this area of research. To achieve this, we conducted a systematic review by following PRISMA protocol, which involved rigorous screening of 9476 studies on the topic and finally selected 215 studies for data extraction. The results revealed that woody species, natural ecosystems and plant phenological responses in spring season have been predominantly studied, with the herbaceous species, agricultural ecosystems and other seasons grossly understudied. Majority of the studies reported phenological advancement (i.e., preponement) in spring, followed by also advancement in summer but delay in autumn. Methodology-wise, nearly two -third of the studies have employed direct observational approach, followed by herbarium-based and experimental approaches, with the latter covering least temporal depth. We found a steady increase in research on the topic over the last decade with a sharp increase since 2014. The global country-wide scientific output map highlights the huge geographical gaps in this area of research, particularly in the biodiversity-rich tropical regions of the developing world. Based on the findings of this global synthesis, we identify the current knowledge gaps and suggest future directions for this emerging area of research in an increasingly warming world.

Host-Parasitoid Phenology, Distribution, and Biological Control under Climate Change

Climate change raises a serious threat to global entomofauna-the foundation of many ecosystems-by threatening species preservation and the ecosystem services they provide. Already, changes in climate-warming-are causing (i) sharp phenological mismatches among host-parasitoid systems by reducing the window of host susceptibility, leading to early emergence of either the host or its associated parasitoid and affecting mismatched species' fitness and abundance; (ii) shifting arthropods' expansion range towards higher altitudes, and therefore migratory pest infestations are more likely; and (iii) reducing biological control effectiveness by natural enemies, leading to potential pest outbreaks. Here, we provided an overview of the warming consequences on biodiversity and functionality of agroecosystems, highlighting the vital role that phenology plays in ecology. Also, we discussed how phenological mismatches would affect biological control efficacy, since an accurate description of stage differentiation (metamorphosis) of a pest and its associated natural enemy is crucial in order to know the exact time of the host susceptibility/suitability or stage when the parasitoids are able to optimize their parasitization or performance. Campaigns regarding landscape structure/heterogeneity, reduction of pesticides, and modelling approaches are urgently needed in order to safeguard populations of natural enemies in a future warmer world.

Sex-dependent phenological responses to climate vary across species' ranges

Anthropogenic climate change has significantly altered the flowering times (i.e., phenology) of plants worldwide, affecting their reproduction, survival, and interactions. Recent studies utilizing herbarium specimens have uncovered significant intra- and inter-specific variation in flowering phenology and its response to changes in climate but have mostly been limited to animal-pollinated species. Thus, despite their economic and ecological importance, variation in phenological responses to climate remain largely unexplored among and within wind-pollinated dioecious species and across their sexes. Using both herbarium specimens and volunteer observations of cottonwood (Populus) species, we examined how phenological sensitivity to climate varies across species, their ranges, sexes, and phenophases. The timing of flowering varied significantly across and within species, as did their sensitivity to spring temperature. In particular, male flowering generally happened earlier in the season and was more sensitive to warming than female flowering. Further, the onset of flowering was more sensitive to changes in temperature than leaf out. Increased temporal gaps between male and female flowering time and between the first open flower date and leaf out date were predicted for the future under two climate change scenarios. These shifts will impact the efficacy of sexual reproduction and gene flow among species. Our study demonstrates significant inter- and intra-specific variation in phenology and its responses to environmental cues, across species' ranges, phenophases, and sex, in wind-pollinated species. These variations need to be considered to predict accurately the effects of climate change and assess their ecological and evolutionary consequences.

Earlier and more uniform spring green-up linked to lower insect richness and biomass in temperate forests

Urbanization and agricultural intensification are considered the main causes of recent insect decline in temperate Europe, while direct climate warming effects are still ambiguous. Nonetheless, higher temperatures advance spring leaf emergence, which in turn may directly or indirectly affect insects. We therefore investigated how Sentinel-2-derived start of season (SOS) and its spatial variability (SV-SOS) are affected by spring temperature and whether these green-up variables can explain insect biomass and richness across a climate and land-use gradient in southern Germany. We found that the effects of both spring green-up variables on insect biomass and richness differed between land-use types, but were strongest in forests. Here, insect richness and biomass were higher with later green-up (SOS) and higher SV-SOS. In turn, higher spring temperatures advanced SOS, while SV-SOS was lower at warmer sites. We conclude that with a warming climate, insect biomass and richness in forests may be affected negatively due to earlier and more uniform green-up. Promising adaptation strategies should therefore focus on spatial variability in green-up in forests, thus plant species and structural diversity.

Poleward shifts in the maximum of spring phenological responsiveness of Ginkgo biloba to temperature in China

Global warming is advancing the timing of spring leaf-out in temperate and boreal plants, affecting biological interactions and global biogeochemical cycles. However, spatial variation in spring phenological responsiveness to climate change within species remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated variation in the responsiveness of spring phenology to temperature (RSP; days to leaf-out at a given temperature) in 2754 Ginkgo biloba twigs of trees distributed across subtropical and temperate regions in China from 24°N to 44°N. We found a nonlinear effect of mean annual temperature on spatial variation in RSP, with the highest response rate at c. 12°C and lower response rates at warmer or colder temperatures due to declines in winter chilling accumulation. We then predicted the spatial maxima in RSP under current and future climate scenarios, and found that trees are currently most responsive in central China, which corresponds to the species' main distribution area. Under a high-emission scenario, we predict a 4-degree latitude shift in the responsiveness maximum toward higher latitudes over the rest of the century. The identification of the nonlinear responsiveness of spring phenology to climate gradients and the spatial shifts in phenological responsiveness expected under climate change represent new mechanistic insights that can inform models of spring phenology and ecosystem functioning.

Temperature impacts how sugar resources alter reproductive investment in the European corn borer moth

Investment of resources in reproduction can be based on individual state, environmental conditions, and perceived mate quality. Changing climates impact many aspects of the environment by increasing temperature, decreasing precipitation, and altering resource availability. Access to high-quality resources is known to improve survival under elevated temperatures, but its effects on reproduction in warming environments are largely unexplored. Here, we investigate the effects of elevated temperature and sugar resources on reproductive output within and between E- and Z-pheromone strains of the European corn borer moth [Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae)]. Corn borers prefer mates from their own strain, with reproductive output being highest for within-strain pairs. In this experiment, mating pairs were provided with a 20% sugar solution while exposed to either ambient (23 °C) or elevated (28 °C) temperatures. We measured reproductive investment as the total number of egg clusters laid 3 days after pairing. We found that at ambient temperature, sugar supplementation resulted in high investment across all pairs, including with usually unpreferred mates. However, when sugar was provided at elevated temperature, more egg clusters were laid in pairs with preferred (within-strain) mates as compared to less preferred (between-strain) mates. These results differ from temperature effects in the absence of sugar and suggest that the effects of sugar on reproductive investment in less preferred mates depend on temperature. Changes in investment may be due to differences in the allocation of extra resources to thermoregulation at elevated temperatures. Our results suggest the possibility of interactive effects of temperature and resources on sexual selection.

Ten best practices for effective phenological research

The number and diversity of phenological studies has increased rapidly in recent years. Innovative experiments, field studies, citizen science projects, and analyses of newly available historical data are contributing insights that advance our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to the environment, particularly climate change. However, many phenological data sets have peculiarities that are not immediately obvious and can lead to mistakes in analyses and interpretation of results. This paper aims to help researchers, especially those new to the field of phenology, understand challenges and practices that are crucial for effective studies. For example, researchers may fail to account for sampling biases in phenological data, struggle to choose or design a volunteer data collection strategy that adequately fits their project's needs, or combine data sets in inappropriate ways. We describe ten best practices for designing studies of plant and animal phenology, evaluating data quality, and analyzing data. Practices include accounting for common biases in data, using effective citizen or community science methods, and employing appropriate data when investigating phenological mismatches. We present these best practices to help researchers entering the field take full advantage of the wealth of available data and approaches to advance our understanding of phenology and its implications for ecology.

Understanding Organisms Using Ecological Observatory Networks

Human activities are rapidly changing ecosystems around the world. These changes have widespread implications for the preservation of biodiversity, agricultural productivity, prevalence of zoonotic diseases, and sociopolitical conflict. To understand and improve the predictive capacity for these and other biological phenomena, some scientists are now relying on observatory networks, which are often composed of systems of sensors, teams of field researchers, and databases of abiotic and biotic measurements across multiple temporal and spatial scales. One well-known example is NEON, the US-based National Ecological Observatory Network. Although NEON and similar networks have informed studies of population, community, and ecosystem ecology for years, they have been minimally used by organismal biologists. NEON provides organismal biologists, in particular those interested in NEON's focal taxa, with an unprecedented opportunity to study phenomena such as range expansions, disease epidemics, invasive species colonization, macrophysiology, and other biological processes that fundamentally involve organismal variation. Here, we use NEON as an exemplar of the promise of observatory networks for understanding the causes and consequences of morphological, behavioral, molecular, and physiological variation among individual organisms.

Simple Bayesian reconstruction and forecasting of stream water temperature for ecologists-A tool using air temperature, optionally flow, in a time series decomposition approach

Mitigating the impacts of global warming on wildlife entails four practical steps. First, we need to study how processes of interest vary with temperature. Second, we need to build good temperature scenarios. Third, processes can be forecast accordingly. Only then can we perform the fourth step, testing mitigating measures. While having good temperature data is essential, this is not straightforward for stream ecologists and managers. Water temperature (WT) data are often short and incomplete and future projections are currently not routinely available. There is a need for generic models which address this data gap with good resolution and current models are partly lacking. Here, we expand a previously published hierarchical Bayesian model that was driven by air temperature (AT) and flow (Q) as a second covariate. The new model can hindcast and forecast WT time series at a daily time step. It also allows a better appraisal of real uncertainties in the warming of water temperatures in rivers compared to the previous version, stemming from its hybrid structure between time series decomposition and regression. This model decomposes all-time series using seasonal sinusoidal periodic signals and time varying means and amplitudes. It then links the contrasted frequency signals of WT (daily and six month) through regressions to that of AT and optionally Q for better resolution. We apply this model to two contrasting case study rivers. For one case study, AT only is available as a covariate. This expanded model further improves the already good fitting and predictive capabilities of its earlier version while additionally highlighting warming uncertainties. The code is available online and can easily be run for other temperate rivers.

The Impacts of Early-Life Experience on Bee Phenotypes and Fitness

Across diverse animal species, early-life experiences have lifelong impacts on a variety of traits. The scope of these impacts, their implications, and the mechanisms that drive these effects are central research foci for a variety of disciplines in biology, from ecology and evolution to molecular biology and neuroscience. Here, we review the role of early life in shaping adult phenotypes and fitness in bees, emphasizing the possibility that bees are ideal species to investigate variation in early-life experience and its consequences at both individual and population levels. Bee early life includes the larval and pupal stages, critical time periods during which factors like food availability, maternal care, and temperature set the phenotypic trajectory for an individual's lifetime. We discuss how some common traits impacted by these experiences, including development rate and adult body size, influence fitness at the individual level, with possible ramifications at the population level. Finally, we review ways in which human alterations to the landscape may impact bee populations through early-life effects. This review highlights aspects of bees' natural history and behavioral ecology that warrant further investigation with the goal of understanding how environmental disturbances threaten these vulnerable species.

Evolution of butterfly seasonal plasticity driven by climate change varies across life stages

Photoperiod is a common cue for seasonal plasticity and phenology, but climate change can create cue-environment mismatches for organisms that rely on it. Evolution could potentially correct these mismatches, but phenology often depends on multiple plastic decisions made during different life stages and seasons that may evolve separately. For example, Pararge aegeria (Speckled wood butterfly) has photoperiod-cued seasonal life history plasticity in two different life stages: larval development time and pupal diapause. We tested for climate change-associated evolution of this plasticity by replicating common garden experiments conducted on two Swedish populations 30 years ago. We found evidence for evolutionary change in the contemporary larval reaction norm-although these changes differed between populations-but no evidence for evolution of the pupal reaction norm. This variation in evolution across life stages demonstrates the need to consider how climate change affects the whole life cycle to understand its impacts on phenology.

Complex climate-mediated effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology and frost risk

Urbanization can affect the timing of plant reproduction (i.e. flowering and fruiting) and associated ecosystem processes. However, our knowledge of how plant phenology responds to urbanization and its associated environmental changes is limited. Herbaria represent an important, but underutilized source of data for investigating this question. We harnessed phenological data from herbarium specimens representing 200 plant species collected across 120 yr from the eastern US to investigate the spatiotemporal effects of urbanization on flowering and fruiting phenology and frost risk (i.e. time between the last frost date and flowering). Effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology varied significantly in direction and magnitude across species ranges. Increased urbanization led to earlier flowering in colder and wetter regions and delayed fruiting in regions with wetter spring conditions. Frost risk was elevated with increased urbanization in regions with colder and wetter spring conditions. Our study demonstrates that predictions of phenological change and its associated impacts must account for both climatic and human effects, which are context dependent and do not necessarily coincide. We must move beyond phenological models that only incorporate temperature variables and consider multiple environmental factors and their interactions when estimating plant phenology, especially at larger spatial and taxonomic scales.

Phenological mismatch affects individual fitness and population growth in the winter moth

Climate change can severely impact species that depend on temporary resources by inducing phenological mismatches between consumer and resource seasonal timing. In the winter moth, warmer winters caused eggs to hatch before their food source, young oak leaves, became available. This phenological mismatch changed the selection on the temperature sensitivity of egg development rate. However, we know little about the fine-scale fitness consequences of phenological mismatch at the individual level and how this mismatch affects population dynamics in the winter moth. To determine the fitness consequences of mistimed egg hatching relative to timing of oak budburst, we quantified survival and pupation weight in a feeding experiment. We found that mismatch greatly increased mortality rates of freshly hatched caterpillars, as well as affecting caterpillar growth and development time. We then investigated whether these individual fitness consequences have population-level impacts by estimating the effect of phenological mismatch on population dynamics, using our long-term data (1994-2021) on relative winter moth population densities at four locations in The Netherlands. We found a significant effect of mismatch on population density with higher population growth rates in years with a smaller phenological mismatch. Our results indicate that climate change-induced phenological mismatch can incur severe individual fitness consequences that can impact population density in the wild.

Co-migration fidelity at a stopover site increases over time in African-European migratory landbirds

Migratory species are changing their timing of departure from wintering areas and arrival to breeding sites (i.e. migration phenology) in response to climate change to exploit maximum food availability at higher latitudes and improve their fitness. Despite the impact of changing migration phenology at population and community level, the extent to which individual and species-specific response affects associations among co-migrating species has been seldom explored. By applying temporal co-occurrence network models on 15 years of standardized bird ringing data at a spring stopover site, we show that African-European migratory landbirds tend to migrate in well-defined groups of species with high temporal overlap. Such 'co-migration fidelity' significantly increased over the years and was higher in long-distance (trans-Saharan) than in short-distance (North African) migrants. Our findings suggest non-random patterns of associations in co-migrating species, possibly related to the existence of regulatory mechanisms associated with changing climate conditions and different uses of stopover sites, ultimately influencing the global economy of migration of landbirds in the Palearctic-African migration system.

Climate-driven shifts in leaf senescence are greater for boreal species than temperate species in the Acadian Forest region in contrast to leaf emergence shifts

The Acadian Forest Region is a temperate-boreal transitional zone in eastern North America which provides a unique opportunity for understanding the potential effects of climate change on both forest types. Leaf phenology, the timing of leaf life cycle changes, is an important indicator of the biological effects of climate change, which can be observed with stationary timelapse cameras known as phenocams. Using four growing seasons of observations for the species Acer rubrum (red maple), Betula papyrifera (paper/white birch) and Abies balsamea (balsam fir) from the Acadian Phenocam Network as well as multiple growing season observations from the North American PhenoCam Network we parameterized eight leaf emergence and six leaf senescence models for each species which span a range in process and driver representation. With climate models from the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) we simulated future leaf emergence, senescence and season length (senescence minus emergence) for these species at sites within the Acadian Phenocam Network. Model performances were similar across models and leaf emergence model RMSE ranged from about 1 to 2 weeks across species and models, while leaf senescence model RMSE ranged from about 2 to 4 weeks. The simulations suggest that by the late 21st century, leaf senescence may become continuously delayed for boreal species like Betula papyrifera and Abies balsamea, though remain relatively stable for temperate species like Acer rubrum. In contrast, the projected advancement in leaf emergence was similar across boreal and temperate species. This has important implications for carbon uptake, nutrient resorption, ecology and ecotourism for the Acadian Forest Region. More work is needed to improve predictions of leaf phenology for the Acadian Forest Region, especially with respect to senescence. Phenocams have the potential to rapidly advance process-based model development and predictions of leaf phenology in the context of climate change.

Effect of climate warming on the timing of autumn leaf senescence reverses after the summer solstice

Climate change is shifting the growing seasons of plants, affecting species performance and biogeochemical cycles. Yet how the timing of autumn leaf senescence in Northern Hemisphere forests will change remains uncertain. Using satellite, ground, carbon flux, and experimental data, we show that early-season and late-season warming have opposite effects on leaf senescence, with a reversal occurring after the year's longest day (the summer solstice). Across 84% of the northern forest area, increased temperature and vegetation activity before the solstice led to an earlier senescence onset of, on average, 1.9 ± 0.1 days per °C, whereas warmer post-solstice temperatures extended senescence duration by 2.6 ± 0.1 days per °C. The current trajectories toward an earlier onset and slowed progression of senescence affect Northern Hemisphere-wide trends in growing-season length and forest productivity.

Citizen science data reveal regional heterogeneity in phenological response to climate in the large milkweed bug, Oncopeltus fasciatus

Regional populations of geographically widespread species may respond to different environmental factors across the species' range, generating divergent effects of climate change on life-history phenology. Using thousands of citizen science observations extracted from iNaturalist and associated with corresponding temperature, precipitation, elevation, and daylength information, we examined the drivers of adult mating and of nymphal phenology, development, and group size for populations of the large milkweed bug, Oncopeltus fasciatus, in different ecoregions. Research-grade iNaturalist images were correctly identified 98.3% of the time and yielded more than 3000 observations of nymphal groups and 1000 observations of mating adults spanning 18 years. Mating phenology showed distinct regional patterns, ranging from year-round mating in California to temporally restricted mating in the Great Lakes Northeastern Coast ecoregion. Relative temperature increases of 1°C for a given daylength expanded the mating season by more than a week in western ecoregions. While increases in relative temperature delayed mating phenology in all ecoregions, greater winter precipitation advanced mating in the California ecoregion. In the eastern ecoregions, nymphal phenology was delayed by increases in summer rainfall but was advanced by relative temperature increases, whereas in western regions, relative temperature increases delayed nymphal phenology. Furthermore, accumulated growing degree days (AGDD) was a poor predictor of developmental progression, as we found a positive but weak correlation between AGDD and age structure only for the Appalachian Southeast North America and the Great Lakes Northern Coast ecoregions. These complex phenological responses of O. fasciatus are just one example of how populations may be differentially susceptible to a diversity of climatic effects; using data across a species' whole distribution is critical for exposing regional variations, especially for species with large, continental-scale ranges. This study demonstrates the potential of photodocumented biodiversity data to aid in the monitoring of life history, host plant-insect interactions, and climate responsiveness.