Climate Change Effects on Pathogen Emergence: Artificial Intelligence to Translate Big Data for Mitigation

Prediction of the global occurrence of maize diseases and estimation of yield loss under climate change

BACKGROUND

Climate change significantly impacts global maize production via yield reduction, posing a threat to global food security. Disease-related crop damage reduces quality and yield and results in economic losses. However, the occurrence of diseases caused by climate change, and thus crop yield loss, has not been given much attention.

RESULTS

This study aims to investigate the potential impact of six major diseases on maize yield loss over the next 20 to 80 years under climate change. To this end, the Maximum Entropy model was implemented, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 data. The results indicated that temperature and precipitation are identified as primary limiting factors for disease onset. Southern corn rust was projected to be the most severe disease in the future; with a few of the combined occurrence of all the selected diseases covered in this study were predicted to progressively worsen over time. Yield losses caused by diseases varied per continent, with North America facing the highest loss, followed by Asia, South America, Europe, Africa, and Oceania.

CONCLUSION

This study provides a basis for regional projections and global control of maize diseases under future climate conditions. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

A Comprehensive Review of Climate Change and Plant Diseases in Brazil

Analyzing the impacts of climate change on phytosanitary problems in Brazil is crucial due to the country's special role in global food security as one of the largest producers of essential commodities. This review focuses on the effects of climate change on plant diseases and discusses its main challenges in light of Brazil's diverse agricultural landscape. To assess the risk of diseases caused by fungi, bacteria, viruses, oomycetes, nematodes, and spiroplasms, we surveyed 304 pathosystems across 32 crops of economic importance from 2005 to 2022. Results show that diseases caused by fungi account for 79% of the pathosystems evaluated. Predicting the occurrence of diseases in a changing climate is a complex challenge, and the continuity of this work is strategic for Brazil's agricultural defense. The future risk scenarios analyzed here aim to help guide disease mitigation for cropping systems. Despite substantial progress and ongoing efforts, further research will be needed to effectively prevent economic and environmental damage.

A Synoptic Review of Plant Disease Epidemics and Outbreaks Published in 2022

This scientometric study reviews the scientific literature and CABI distribution records published in 2022 to find evidence of major disease outbreaks and first reports of pathogens in new locations or on new hosts. This is the second time we have done this, and this study builds on our work documenting and analyzing reports from 2021. Pathogens with three or more articles identified in 2022 literature were Xylella fastidiosa, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, Meloidogyne species complexes, 'Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus', Raffaelea lauricola, Fusarium oxysporum formae specialis, and Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici. Our review of CABI distribution records found 29 pathogens with confirmed first reports in 2022. Pathogens with four or more first reports were Meloidogyne species complexes, Pantoea ananatis, grapevine red globe virus, and Thekopsora minima. Analysis of the proportion of new distribution records from 2022 indicated that grapevine red globe virus, sweet potato chlorotic stunt virus, and 'Ca. Phytoplasma vitis' may have been actively spreading. As we saw last year, there was little overlap between the pathogens identified by reviewing scientific literature versus distribution records. We hypothesize that this lack of concordance is because of the unavoidable lag between first reports of the type reported in the CABI database of a pathogen in a new location and any subsequent major disease outbreaks being reported in the scientific literature, particularly because the latter depends on the journal policy on types of papers to be considered, whether the affected crop is major or minor, and whether the pathogen is of current scientific interest. Strikingly, too, there was also no overlap between species assessed to be actively spreading in this year's study and those identified last year. We hypothesize that this is because of inconsistencies in sampling coverage and effort over time and delays between the first arrival of a pathogen in a new location and its first report, particularly for certain classes of pathogens causing only minor or non-economically damaging symptoms, which may have been endemic for some time before being reported. In general, introduction of new pathogens and outbreaks of extant pathogens threaten food security and ecosystem services. Continued monitoring of these threats is essential to support phytosanitary measures intended to prevent pathogen introductions and management of threats within a country.

Investigation of 2,4-Dihydroxylaryl-Substituted Heterocycles as Inhibitors of the Growth and Development of Biotrophic Fungal Pathogens Associated with the Most Common Cereal Diseases

Climate change forces agriculture to face the rapidly growing virulence of biotrophic fungal pathogens, which in turn drives researchers to seek new ways of combatting or limiting the spread of diseases caused by the same. While the use of agrochemicals may be the most efficient strategy in this context, it is important to ensure that such chemicals are safe for the natural environment. Heterocyclic compounds have enormous biological potential. A series of heterocyclic scaffolds (1,3,4-thiadiazole, 1,3-thiazole, 1,2,4-triazole, benzothiazine, benzothiadiazine, and quinazoline) containing 2,4-dihydroxylaryl substituents were investigated for their ability to inhibit the growth and development of biotrophic fungal pathogens associated with several important cereal diseases. Of the 33 analysed compounds, 3 were identified as having high inhibitory potential against Blumeria and Puccinia fungi. The conducted research indicated that the analysed compounds can be used to reduce the incidence of fungal diseases in cereals; however, further thorough research is required to investigate their effects on plant-pathogen systems, including molecular studies to determine the exact mechanism of their activity.

Drought: A context-dependent damper and aggravator of plant diseases

Drought dynamically influences the interactions between plants and pathogens, thereby affecting disease outbreaks. Understanding the intricate mechanistic aspects of the multiscale interactions among plants, pathogens, and the environment-known as the disease triangle-is paramount for enhancing the climate resilience of crop plants. In this review, we systematically compile and comprehensively analyse current knowledge on the influence of drought on the severity of plant diseases. We emphasise that studying these stresses in isolation is not sufficient to predict how plants respond to combined stress from both drought and pathogens. The impact of drought and pathogens on plants is complex and multifaceted, encompassing the activation of antagonistic signalling cascades in response to stress factors. The nature, intensity, and temporality of drought and pathogen stress occurrence significantly influence the outcome of diseases. We delineate the drought-sensitive nodes of plant immunity and highlight the emerging points of crosstalk between drought and defence signalling under combined stress. The limited mechanistic understanding of these interactions is acknowledged as a key research gap in this area. The information synthesised herein will be crucial for crafting strategies for the accurate prediction and mitigation of future crop disease risks, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

Disaster Plant Pathology: Smart Solutions for Threats to Global Plant Health from Natural and Human-Driven Disasters

Disaster plant pathology addresses how natural and human-driven disasters impact plant diseases and the requirements for smart management solutions. Local to global drivers of plant disease change in response to disasters, often creating environments more conducive to plant disease. Most disasters have indirect effects on plant health through factors such as disrupted supply chains and damaged infrastructure. There is also the potential for direct effects from disasters, such as pathogen or vector dispersal due to floods, hurricanes, and human migration driven by war. Pulse stressors such as hurricanes and war require rapid responses, whereas press stressors such as climate change leave more time for management adaptation but may ultimately cause broader challenges. Smart solutions for the effects of disasters can be deployed through digital agriculture and decision support systems supporting disaster preparedness and optimized humanitarian aid across scales. Here, we use the disaster plant pathology framework to synthesize the effects of disasters in plant pathology and outline solutions to maintain food security and plant health in catastrophic scenarios. We recommend actions for improving food security before and following disasters, including (i) strengthening regional and global cooperation, (ii) capacity building for rapid implementation of new technologies, (iii) effective clean seed systems that can act quickly to replace seed lost in disasters, (iv) resilient biosecurity infrastructure and risk assessment ready for rapid implementation, and (v) decision support systems that can adapt rapidly to unexpected scenarios. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license.

Crosstalk and trade-offs: Plant responses to climate change-associated abiotic and biotic stresses

As sessile organisms, plants are constantly challenged by a dynamic growing environment. This includes fluctuations in temperature, water availability, light levels, and changes in atmospheric constituents such as carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and ozone (O3 ). In concert with changes in abiotic conditions, plants experience changes in biotic stress pressures, including plant pathogens and herbivores. Human-induced increases in atmospheric CO2 levels have led to alterations in plant growth environments that impact their productivity and nutritional quality. Additionally, it is predicted that climate change will alter the prevalence and virulence of plant pathogens, further challenging plant growth. A knowledge gap exists in the complex interplay between plant responses to biotic and abiotic stress conditions. Closing this gap is crucial for developing climate resilient crops in the future. Here, we briefly review the physiological responses of plants to elevated CO2 , temperature, tropospheric O3 , and drought conditions, as well as the interaction of these abiotic stress factors with plant pathogen pressure. Additionally, we describe the crosstalk and trade-offs involved in plant responses to both abiotic and biotic stress, and outline targets for future work to develop a more sustainable future food supply considering future climate change.

Climate change impacts on plant pathogens, food security and paths forward

Plant disease outbreaks pose significant risks to global food security and environmental sustainability worldwide, and result in the loss of primary productivity and biodiversity that negatively impact the environmental and socio-economic conditions of affected regions. Climate change further increases outbreak risks by altering pathogen evolution and host-pathogen interactions and facilitating the emergence of new pathogenic strains. Pathogen range can shift, increasing the spread of plant diseases in new areas. In this Review, we examine how plant disease pressures are likely to change under future climate scenarios and how these changes will relate to plant productivity in natural and agricultural ecosystems. We explore current and future impacts of climate change on pathogen biogeography, disease incidence and severity, and their effects on natural ecosystems, agriculture and food production. We propose that amendment of the current conceptual framework and incorporation of eco-evolutionary theories into research could improve our mechanistic understanding and prediction of pathogen spread in future climates, to mitigate the future risk of disease outbreaks. We highlight the need for a science-policy interface that works closely with relevant intergovernmental organizations to provide effective monitoring and management of plant disease under future climate scenarios, to ensure long-term food and nutrient security and sustainability of natural ecosystems.

Translating virome analyses to support biosecurity, on-farm management, and crop breeding

Virome analysis via high-throughput sequencing (HTS) allows rapid and massive virus identification and diagnoses, expanding our focus from individual samples to the ecological distribution of viruses in agroecological landscapes. Decreases in sequencing costs combined with technological advances, such as automation and robotics, allow for efficient processing and analysis of numerous samples in plant disease clinics, tissue culture laboratories, and breeding programs. There are many opportunities for translating virome analysis to support plant health. For example, virome analysis can be employed in the development of biosecurity strategies and policies, including the implementation of virome risk assessments to support regulation and reduce the movement of infected plant material. A challenge is to identify which new viruses discovered through HTS require regulation and which can be allowed to move in germplasm and trade. On-farm management strategies can incorporate information from high-throughput surveillance, monitoring for new and known viruses across scales, to rapidly identify important agricultural viruses and understand their abundance and spread. Virome indexing programs can be used to generate clean germplasm and seed, crucial for the maintenance of seed system production and health, particularly in vegetatively propagated crops such as roots, tubers, and bananas. Virome analysis in breeding programs can provide insight into virus expression levels by generating relative abundance data, aiding in breeding cultivars resistant, or at least tolerant, to viruses. The integration of network analysis and machine learning techniques can facilitate designing and implementing management strategies, using novel forms of information to provide a scalable, replicable, and practical approach to developing management strategies for viromes. In the long run, these management strategies will be designed by generating sequence databases and building on the foundation of pre-existing knowledge about virus taxonomy, distribution, and host range. In conclusion, virome analysis will support the early adoption and implementation of integrated control strategies, impacting global markets, reducing the risk of introducing novel viruses, and limiting virus spread. The effective translation of virome analysis depends on capacity building to make benefits available globally.

Climate change and plant pathogens

Global food security is threatened by climate change, both directly through responses of crop physiology and productivity, and indirectly through responses of plant-associated microbiota, including plant pathogens. While the interactions between host plants, pathogens and environmental drivers can be complex, recent research is beginning to indicate certain overall patterns in how plant diseases will affect crop production in future. Here, we review the results of three methodological approaches: large-scale observational studies, process-based disease models and experimental comparisons of pathosystems under current and future conditions. We find that observational studies have tended to identify rising temperatures as the primary driver of disease impact. Process-based models suggest that rising temperatures will lead to latitudinal shifts in disease pressure, but drying conditions could mitigate disease risk. Experimental studies suggest that rising atmospheric CO₂ will exacerbate disease impacts. Plant diseases may therefore counteract any crop yield increases due to climate change.